Michael

Did it bring it to a stop though? Or did it just change out the bloke in front for a crazy idiot and end up making the ride even worse?

If it's Jeremy Corbyn, then yes.

Cannabis beer I’m conflicted. I’m a fan of beer but not cannabis. What should I do when it’s eventually for sale?

I'm eagerly awaiting Mathematical Conundrum or Not? Number Seven, @"Jeremiah". ;)

And if I see £10 then I stand to gain £10 and I stand to lose £5.

But suppose you don't do this. Suppose you just select some X at random from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}, put it in one envelope, and then put 2X ...

Sorry, I'm a bit confused by your response. Did you read me as saying "this isn't the same as" rather than "isn't this the same as"?

Isn't this the same as: \small \begin{align} E(N\mid M=a) &= (2a)P(S=a\mid M=a)+(\frac{a}{2})P(2S=a\mid M=a)\end{align} @"andrewk" @"Pierre-Normand"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-missing-dnc-server-is-neither-missing-nor-a-server

No, because if the amount in your envelope (say £160) is more than the highest X that the host can choose (say £100) then you're always going to lose,...

Yes, which is why my switching strategy (and the second switching strategy in the paper you referred to) provides a gain of .25. It's not a coincidenc...

The expected value (given the information available to us), yes.

As I said above, you don't need to learn the range. You can choose any arbitrary amount before you start and switch only if the amount in your envelop...

So first you say "If you are not willing to justify your model empirically, well then that says it all. You should be willing to empirically justify y...

Huh? That's not an assumption. That's my strategy. I switch envelopes if the value in my envelope is less than or equal to the highest X I've seen in ...

There's nothing like that. I just open my envelope, which contains either X or 2X, and I switch if it's less than or equal to the highest X I've seen....

Here you ran your own simulation with X selected at random (multiples of 10). You then ran the simulation with other methods of selecting X and said "...

I've added comments.

Here it is in R. Edit: Now has comments

I am. I already ran the simulation. I've also built the game for us to play here. First select your chosen envelope. Then select either "switch" or "s...

Well, you did say here that " already convinced approach is correct... have no doubt about it, and no longer care about arguing or proving that point"...

I read something yesterday about some Russians buying property from Trump for something like $100 million in cash. Edit: Here

In half the games where you have £10 you switch to the envelope with an expected value of £12.50 and walk away with £20. In half the games where you h...

That critical point is going to be the highest X that can (will?) be selected by the host, correct? If he selects a value from 1 to 100 for the smalle...

I think the disagreement is that you see the situation as this: Assume there's £10 in one envelope and £20 in the other. If you chose the £10 envelope...

You're doing it again. It's not possible that we have 2X or X/2 because we've defined X as the value of our envelope. Your cases should be written as:...

Yes, so in case A I gain £10 by switching, in case B I lose £5 by switching, and each case is equally likely.

That depends on how the host selects the values. If he selects a value of X at random from some distribution that includes 5 and 10 then the unconditi...

That's not my set up. My set up is that there's £10 in my envelope and that one envelope contains twice as much as the other. I then deduce from this ...

Your question is ambiguous. Are you asking for the probability that I selected the £10 envelope (given that there's £10 in one and either £5 or £20 in...

They're permissible values for the other envelope. My envelope must be £10. So either it's {10, 5} for both or it's {10, 20} for both.

I agree that {10} is the certain value for the thing in my envelope and that {5, 20} are the possible values for the thing in the other envelope. I do...

Yes. So let's say that there's £10 in my envelope: If I have an envelope containing X (10), and switch to an envelope containing 2X (20), I gain X (10...

So now you're back to defining X as the amount in my envelope and then supposing that I could have 2X and lose X. You're not making any sense.

OK, so how much is the U that I see in my envelope?

What does X mean here?

First you say "You open an envelope and see X" and then you say "If you have the higher valued envelope 2X and switch you lose X". How can I see X in ...

You're doing it again. Is X the value of my envelope or the value of the smallest envelope? You're switching between both and it doesn't make any sens...

I interpreted it as it is literally written:

By this do you just mean that if we know that the value of X is to be chosen from a distribution of 1 - 100 then if we open our envelope to find 150 t...

What do you mean by X here? Are you using it to refer to the value of the smallest envelope or to refer to the value of the opened envelope? It looks ...

That article shows that if you get to open your envelope you can use the knowledge of its value to apply a switching strategy to better your earnings....

It was caught by the automated spam filter. I’ve restored it.

Yes, he halted a policy started under his administration because of the public outcry. Here’s an article from May reporting on Sessions’ announcement ...

Wanted: Inspiring name for Europe's 2020 Mars rover:

They're all part of a Shallow State conspiracy against America, being Russian and/or Big Business shills.

Didn't you hear? It's Trump against the entire world. He's the God-Emperor, the saviour of mankind, destined to bring about the Golden Path, and the c...

See my edit.

1,976MB. 181.6Mbps (22.7MBps), apparently. And FYI, given that Virgin were offering 300Mbps (45MBps) internet for £80 a month in January 2016, I think...

Or open in an Incognito/Private window.