Michael

I thought we were talking about the rational decision for a single play of the game, not the payout for always-switch and always-stick strategies for ...

Sure, the practical limitations of real life play a role, but I wonder if such limitations go against the spirit of the problem. What if instead of mo...

So my takeaway is that if it isn't rational to stick then it's rational to switch. There's no middle ground where it's either/or.

But this just seems to be saying that there's no reason to believe that it's more likely that the other envelope contains the smaller amount and no re...

So what's the rational decision if you know that the prior distribution isn't uniform and unbounded? There's £10 in your envelope. Should you stick or...

So say you know that one envelope contains twice as much as the other and that there's £10 in your envelope (and that you don't know how the amounts a...

Take my example of the coin toss and the red or blue envelope. The person with full knowledge of the rules will say that P(H | red envelope) = 1, but ...

That's because I disagree with your interpretation of probability. Your reasoning would seem to suggest that there's a 50% chance of a coin flip landi...

I'm not really sure that this addresses my main question. You say "the coin is not in a state of being 50% heads and 50% tails. It is in an unknown st...

This is why I think the issue is related to the debate between frequentists and Bayesians. For objective Bayesians, "probability quantifies the reason...

If I'm told that one envelope contains twice as much as the other, and if I pick one at random, am I right in saying before I open it that there's a 5...

The article does say "Cohen alleges that he was present, along with several others, when Trump was informed of the Russians' offer by Trump Jr." so Mu...

Accepting or soliciting a "thing of value" from a foreign national for election purposes is a crime: 52 U.S. Code § 30121 - Contributions and donation...

How Trump Won Re-election in 2020 I can believe it.

Although according to this the FBI made an image of the server, so that's good.

That's a problem that the article addresses:

Yes, but high factual reporting. This one reads more as an opinion piece though.

Evidence Shows Hackers Changed Votes in the 2016 Election But No One Will Admit It I'm torn. On the one hand, the author keeps referring to the Russia...

Don't forget @"Hanover." He knows that Trump's a shithead, probably doesn't admire his shitheadedness, but prefers shithead Republican policies to sen...

Facebook.

I wonder how many of Trump's anti-abortion supporters would turn against him if it turned out that he'd paid (or otherwise pushed) for an abortion.

Which part is my opinion? That he is an expert? That he has a history of providing reliable information? Or that to be credible just is to be an exper...

You accused me of saying that Steele is automatically scrupulous because of his job title. And I didn't. The facts are that a) he is an expert, and b)...

Nowhere have I expressed the opinion that Steele is automatically scrupulous. I have only stated the fact that Steele is an ex-MI6 operative who speci...

I said "misleading", not "false". It may have been Hillary's opposition research, but it was also the professional findings of a credible ex-MI6 opera...

And that's because of what I explained here.

No, my criticism is that the article misleadingly referred to it with the disparaging term “Hillary’s opposition research” and falsely claimed that it...

None of what you said there addressed the substance of my criticism of your article’s false and misleading claims. It’s just deflection.

False and misleading. Misleading in that “Hillary’s opposition research” is actually the professional findings of a credible ex-MI6 operative who spec...

I agree (that we should stick when shown the other envelope).

They should impeach Trump for missing that Russia sanctions deadline.

That has nothing to do with same-sex attraction, though.

We have to eat something.

Let's see how you feel after the no deal Brexit, the foot shortages, and then having what little food you have stolen by me.

The first wrong decision is a worse decision than the second wrong decision. Not if the consequences of accepting that democratic vote are worse than ...

And I'm saying that it's the wrong decision, and so the government should overturn it. It might lose them support, as you implied, but what's best for...

They're not in the town centre and I don't drive, so getting to them would be a pain.

I've never shopped in Aldi. Or Lidl.

So if I pick a number at random from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} you disagree that the objective probability that I will pick 5 is 0.1? If I know ...

Country over party. If there is no deal then I'm coming over to your house and stealing your food.

I'll just have to buy more Huel.

Brexit Secretary Raab says government will ensure food supplies if no EU exit deal Jesus Christ. If this even has to be discussed then how is it not a...

I know this. If X = 10 then I gain £10 by switching. If X = 5 then I lose £5 by switching. I'm betting on the value of X being 10. It's a £5 bet with ...

I don't reject 1. Either a) the envelopes are valued at £10 and £20 (so X = 10) or, b) the envelopes are valued at £5 and £10 (so X = 5). As it's an u...

I accept all of them. I reject the implicit conclusion that the gain and loss are symmetric. If my envelope contains £10 then 3. and 5. are: 3. If I t...

It's the principle of indifference.

We've already established that the expected gain is \small \begin{align} E(B\mid A=a) &= P(X=a\mid A=a)2a+P(2X=a\mid A=a)\frac{a}{2} \end{align} The o...

Sure there is. If there's £10 in my envelope and I know that the other envelope contains either £5 or £20 because I know that one envelope contains tw...

Most people I see in public have two side arms.

e.g.?