It's described in the argument: "If Leslie's figure is used, then 60 billion humans have been born so far, so it can be estimated that there is a 95% ...
In memory of the discussion we had a while back on the Sleeping Beauty problem, say you're going to be put to sleep. A scientist will select one of th...
One of the criticisms of the Doomsday argument can apply to your example: Simply put, the fact that we're more likely to pick 2019 from graph 2 than f...
That's wrong. When the experimenter is deciding who to give the red ball to at T1 there's only a 1/15 chance that he picks me. Therefore there's a 1/1...
Yes, you're right. The chance that current time T >= 1 is 1, the chance that T >= 2 is 14/15, the chance that T >= 3 is 4/5, the chance that T >= 4 is...
It was what you said in your first post: Ignoring the actual dates and population figures and just assuming that it's a projection of how the human po...
P(T1) = 1/15 P(T2) = 2/15 P(T3) = 1/5 P(T4) = 4/15 P(T5) = 1/3 So, if we have to bet on a time then betting on T5 gives us the best odds. This is wher...
This is ambiguous, so perhaps this will better explain what I'm saying: Let's say 98 people have 1 lottery ticket and you have 2 lottery tickets. Of e...
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I'm just told the rules and then given a hidden ball. I don't know if my ball is blue and I don't know if the time I was give...
That’s not right. Take my example with the coloured balls. 1 red is given out at T1, then 2 orange at T2, then 3 yellow at T3, then 4 green at T4, and...
No I’m not. I’m saying “I’m going to bet that it’s blue but it’s more likely not blue” - which is true if there are 15 balls and only 5 are blue. Two-...
If the chances are 3-1 then you’re not most likely to win (be in the last generation). You’re 3 times more likely to lose (not be in the last generati...
I don’t think it is. The only presumption is population growth until an abrupt demise. It then follows that the final X years will have a greater popu...
I am most likely in the last generation only if there’s > 50% chance that I’m in the last generation, and this is only true if > 50% of every human wh...
I’m saying that if you have to bet on a colour then bet on blue because it has the best odds, but if you can choose to not bet then don’t because you’...
The particular claim of yours which is wrong is "a random person is always most likely to be among the largest generation/group". This is only true if...
What you originally said is "Whoever/whenever you are it’s always most likely that yours is the final generation. The rationale being that if the fina...
No I'm not. I'm saying that if you have to pick a generation then you're more likely to be right if you pick the final generation, but that you're mor...
Assuming population growth (and an abrupt rather than gradual end), you're more likely to win if you select the last 5 rooms (assuming the rooms are n...
I don't have to pick one. It is true that I'm more likely of being within generations 1-4 (66.7% chance) than being in generation 5 (33.3% chance). Th...
If you're asked to pick a colour then, yes, you should say blue -- although you're more likely to be wrong than right, and so if you're asked if it's ...
Let's phrase this another way. There's 1 red ball, 2 orange balls, 3 yellow balls, 4 green balls, and 5 blue balls. I give you a ball at random. It's ...
I'm not saying that I'm in multiple generations. I'm saying that I'm more likely to be in generation 1 or generation 2 or generation 3 or generation 4...
OK, and then of those you're more likely on the 4-6 side, and then of those more likely on the 5-6 side, and then of those more likely on the 6 side? ...
Say you roll a dice. If it's 2-6 then roll again. Repeat until you roll a 1. According to your reasoning, your first roll is more likely to be 2-6 tha...
This is misleading. Assume 5 generations with populations like this: 1: 100 2: 200 3: 300 4: 400 5: 500 It's more likely that I'm in generation 5 than...
I suppose a simpler example would be to say that I'm given a number at random from a range of 1-n. What is the probability that the number I was given...
OK, but he clearly misunderstood Gettier because Gettier didn't conclude that knowledge is justified belief. Gettier only concluded, in his own words,...
That's not Gettier's conclusion. Gettier's conclusion is that " does not state a sufficient condition for someone's knowing a given proposition."1 1 h...
Which makes me wonder what they think Corbyn will do to the UK if they're willing to damage the economy and break up the union to ensure Brexit but no...
But not a limit on control over immigration from non-EU countries, and yet there's more immigration from non-EU countries, so if immigration is a prob...
So they want autonomy even if it means breaking up the union and damaging the economy? But they don't want autonomy if it means a Corbyn-led governmen...
You're probably joking, but breaking up the UK and damaging the economy isn't going to make Britain great. So honestly what's the real reason those Co...
According to this, in 2018 there were almost 350,000 immigrants from non-EU countries and just over 200,000 immigrants from EU countries. If the gover...
The thing is, we already have immigration regulation for EU citizens. We can kick people out after 3 months if they can't prove they're working, seeki...
I didn't think it was like that here. Prime Ministers aren't like Presidents. Though the biggest takeaway is really that Conservatives are willing to ...
Apparently Corbyn in literally† the worst thing in the world: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2019-06-17/Con%20party...
No. I don't know, but according to the World Medical Association: I can understand wanting to save someone's life (against their wishes), but what if ...
Yes. Are you serious in suggesting that it was a planned demolition or whatever it is 9/11 skeptics believe? Because if it were that there'd be far mo...
But a negligible amount which means not enough to make a difference. If I were to stand in front of a train I would provide negligible resistance, and...
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