Jeremiah

You can choose to respond to this post or not. That much should be self evident, which is intersubjectivally verifiable.

A bit of a side note, but I find it hypocrital how many non-believers reject God due to lack of evidence, but eagerly accept hard determinism even tho...

Hard determinism has many flaws that should be kept in mind. It is an unfalsifiable claim, which means it should not be used as a standard for proof. ...

Let me know when you have learned enough to understand the difference between determinism and hard determinism.

The error is in making new assumptions based on Y. Before you see Y you know that envelope A, the one you were given, has the possibility to be X or 2...

If determinism is true, everything is both a cause and effect, that includes humans. Your statement here shows how little thought you have put into th...

You are the one that set the standard of proof. It would be nice if "philosophers" actually tried to live up to such standards, but I guess when it co...

In fact I think this could be considered a counter example against the concept of hard determinism. If I push a rock it has no choice but to roll the ...

If hard determinism were true, and I am an external agent then by your standards my function would be to tell you what to believe and you would have t...

I posted the solution on the 6th post. However, without the stubborn refusal of reality, then I doubt many of the threads on these philosophy forums w...

If you don't know what free means in the context of free will, then how is it possible you have empirical evidence against it? I think you need to get...

Where is your empirical evidence? I thought this thread was about proof. Considerating that hard determinism is unfalsifiable I have my doubts your st...

You just demonstrated free choice.

The subconscious mind makes some choices for you from learned behavior of the conscious mind. If you drive the same route to work everyday then your s...

Pick one: A B C

Paralleling an example can be useful, but it also can be misleading. I rather stay focused on the problem in the OP.

If you don't change your assumptions upon seeing Y this problem becomes direct and accurate to solve.

The distribution in the other letter cannot be as one of those values simply does not exist. You have still created a sample space with impossible out...

Well the whole expected value approach has some interesting aspects to it. If A1=Y=X then B1=2X or if A2=Y=2X then B2=X, where Y is the amount you see...

I think it has more to do with set theory than probability.

Personally, I think there is a general misconception on these forums that Bayesian inference is an excuse to model the subjective rather than the obje...

My problem with this is that I feel like the numbers are just being bent until you get the answer you want. There are two things we can use probabilit...

Let me try rewriting this. Your sample space is . Which means your distribution here: = P(R=5 | L=10)(R) + P(R=20 | L=10)(R) = R Could be: = P(R=5 | L...

I agree, it was not very thought provoking.

The error here is making new assumptions upon seeing Y.

The pro switchers never really gave a good reason how to reconcile the fact that their model has the potential to make impossible predictions. That is...

There is no reason to put data science in quotations; it is a real branch of modern science. The advancements of computers and the age of big data is ...

I did not say you have full knowledge. All of the concerns you are expressing have already been addressed by multiple people multiple times, and I don...

He is also capable of shooting laser beams from his eyes and eating an entire cheeseburger in a single bite.

His speeches make much more sense if you are drunk.

Then how did it get deleted? That line has been removed multiple times, and there is other missing content. I get removing the remarks you find too ab...

It makes sense, but it is wrong, and that is why it is misleading. Forget the math and just think about this rationally. Consider: I have two envelope...

The problem with the argument is that one of those numbers is not possible, therefore calculations based on those numbers will be misleading. To do so...

Sorry no, that was not my intent. In the event of R you have A=10 and B=20. In the event of S you have A=10 and B=5. These are mutually exclusive even...

We define A and B as: If A=Y=X then B=2X or if A=Y=2X then B=X, where Y is the amount you see opening envelope A and X is the unknown amount originall...

We define A and B as: If A=Y=X then B=2X or if A=Y=2X then B=X, where Y is the amount you see opening envelope A and X is the unknown amount originall...

We define A and B as: If A=Y=X then B=2X or if A=Y=2X then B=X, where Y is the amount you see opening envelope A and X is the unknown amount originall...

There is no point in even approaching probability and expected returns without properly defining the sample space. As if that is not right, the rest o...

You claim the sample space is The sample space is defined as all possible outcomes, but for 5 to be a possible outcome then 20 must be an impossible o...

Expect for one to be possible the other one has to be impossible and therefore can not be included in the same sample space as possible outcomes. R an...

This is a rerun. . . . R and S are mutually exclusive events.

The definition of a statistic is. . . . The Statistical Sleuth, A course in Methods of Data Analysis. By Ramsey/Schafer .

None of us has yet to actually play this game; as such, we reflect the player's knowledge and expectations.

These are the lecture notes from one of my professors, which should give you some idea of what Bayesian statistics is suppose to look like. http://www...

Given what we know, as it stands, the evidence leans in favor of freedom of choice.

You tell me.

Holy crap! Trump is the president. We are all doomed!

The stress is subjectivitaly beinging put on the word the, and that stress is ambiguous. This is a grammar issue, not one of logic.