BlueBanana

The term "paranoid" implies the fear is irrational, so you'd need to compare that data to actual dangers. I'm not paranoid for wanting to own a gun in...

I'm claiming one doesn't need to. You can choose to not follow someone's commands without making any claim. Do I believe you have a beard? No. Do I be...

How can certainty about god or any of their qualities be concluded from not following their commands? Which could perfectly well be done while being a...

Yes it does. It's simultaneously on both of you. Your claim offers no new information so we simply don't know whether you have an invisible pet dragon...

What an awfully long way to say "Americans are obsessed with guns because they're afraid that someone they're oppressing will become dangerous".

Maybe because they should be afraid. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unethical_human_experimentation_in_the_United_States

In the original problem adding any outcomes, like heads and Tuesday, doesn't affect the other odds in respect to each other. If some specific intervie...

No, if you consider heads + tails the chances go to 0,5. Eliminating that possibility results in 0,75.

With the outcome added there are certain odds, and when that is modified by eliminating that one possibility the odds are changed in a way that someho...

Because that's the original scenario where it's already eliminated. Completely possible to do so. You mean modifying that scenario so that it includes...

As I said, Tuesday and heads. From the trivial scenario where she's woken up twice regardless of the coin flip.

Because that's where we get to after we eliminate the one possibility from the aforementioned case. You forgot to weigh the calculations for the poten...

Not from there. That's where you get when you first take the trivial case where she's woken twice either way. That's like saying you can't eliminate 1...

No, we can't. Eliminating that possibility diminishes the chances of heads being the correct guess. 3/4 but the situation is completely different. No ...

Then it's likelier the waking up was caused by flipping tails. As I said,

Heads and Tuesday.

This is just another way of saying it's more likely to win. Because of which each guess is more likely to have been caused by tails.

Completely different situation. There's no "eliminated" outcome. There's no difference between an outside observer and the subject.

It is in this context. With each guess there's the same bet, same amount of money, same chances of winning. So if guessing tails doesn't win more time...

How about this: I toss a coin and ask you what I got, but if it's heads I toss it again and if it's tails that round isn't played. What are you guessi...

You get to guess more when tails are thrown, so if you're guessing it's likelier tails were thrown.

With each tails thrown, not with each tails guessed. The guesses are separate. You get to guess more times with tails, so naturally it makes sense to ...

With the common sense, how does that sound rational to you? Heads and tails being thrown are each as likely, so how does the knowledge that it's Monda...

No, your calculations with Kolmogorov's definition give an answer that contradicts mine. They do not directly address or disprove that 75/225=1/3. As ...

If the test is repeated 150 times, in 75 out of 225 questions the correct answer is heads. That's 1/3. What definition of probability makes the chance...

I nowhere said the last two parts.

Same thing. It's the likelier choice because I asked more people.

Of course that's true if they choose randomly whether to guess heads or tails. If they make the sensible choice of tails there're more winners because...

Because of the amnesia different people can be used to compare. Heads, I randomly choose a person from the street to ask the question from. Tails, I c...

Shouldn't matter if their odds are 25%. Then the expected value would be (1/4)*1+(1/4)*1+(1/2)*(-1)=0.

But she's only given 1€ with tails. The reason she wins by guessing tails is because she's likelier to be in a situation where tails has been thrown. ...

Let's imagine the situation repeated 150 times. 75 occurrences of each situation means the chances are 1/3. There's no reason to assume the probabilit...

How so?

Being more clear isn't the same as dumbing it down. An example would help because this is a highly circumstantial topic. Depending on the context you ...

The analogy is a valid one. In informal language "a is b" can mean "a=b" but also "a?b". Hesperus is Venus but Venus isn't always Hesperus, and theref...

BlueBanana = banana The banana Belter ate = banana Therefore I am the banana Belter ate, and therefore I am dead.

The issue is Hesperus is not Phosphorus. They are both Venus but that's like saying I'm a banana, Belter has eaten a banana, therefore I'm dead becaus...

If it is so, why does art play that role? Why is art the way it is?

The context is a part of the action. Actions don't exist in a vacuum. That stealing is wrong is a generalization; if you steal to feed a homeless fami...

with a conditional: movement could be possible if the space was discrete.

Not when Or, in the case of locations, the locations between the two points, i.e. teleportation. So, to clarify, if I count the natural numbers from 1...

Then the first number would be 0, was it included. There's no need for the first number with instantaneous counting between two numbers.

The difference between time taken is relevant again. If one number takes a time to count, in that time you'll have to have counted one number, and tha...

Why does there need to be the first point?

@"Michael" There's a fundamental difference between the number line example and movement. Disregarding the numbers between, it takes time to count any...

What if one stands by the subjectivity? The argument being subjective is not subjective.

That's up to interpretation.

It is in some contexts.

Let's interpret a footstep as a memory of something stepping there. What entity has this memory? Ground? The Earth? Some even larger system? Can any o...

Yeah, I did think of that too, but even they aren't (mostly) killing themselves. It's all about perspective, sucks from our point of view to be sure. ...