Michael

Here's my attempt at R: # The amount earned if following the switching strategy switch <- 0 # The amount earned if never switching no_switch <- 0 # Th...

Anyone can write a document. That just means that someone in the CIA with a bone to pick falsified some papers so as to get back at his bosses for not...

Do you know any programming languages? I could try writing my program in something else so you can better see what it's doing in case the PHP is too c...

That's exactly what my program does (although I switch if Y is less than or equal to L/2). In my case, L is the highest 2X envelope seen so far and so...

Well documented where? In the news? Don't you notice the hypocrisy in your position? You accept the news as trustworthy when it suits your agenda but ...

Trump went to an Ivy League university and inherited a $200 million ($800 million adjusted for inflation) business from his father.

Or playing Jeopardy!.

Isn't it technically true that as a discussion grows longer the probability of a comparison involving anything approaches 1?

If you describe your expectation for U as 2X and if Y is known to be 10 then you're describing your expectation for U as £20. If you describe your exp...

I heard about it in the news, but the news can’t be trusted so I don’t believe that Operation Mockingbird was a real thing. It’s anti-government lies ...

The expected value of U is the probability that event A is the case multiplied by the value of U if event A is the case plus the probability that even...

Yes. And that dollar value is twice the value of \small Y, so if \small Y=10 then \small 2X=20. How can you possibly disagree with this? It's right th...

We derive the sample space from: 1. Y = 10 2. U = 2X or U = X. If U = 2X then Y = X. As Y = 10, 2X = 20. If U = X then Y = 2X. As Y = 10, X = 5.

To ask if U is the larger of the two, given that Y is 10, is to ask if X is 10 and U is 20. To ask if U is the smaller of the two, given that Y is 10,...

But your own argument made this same assumption. \small P(U=2X \mid Y=10)(2X) is the same as \small P(X=10)(2X) \small P(U=X \mid Y=10)(X) is the same...

Another way to phrase your formulation is: \small \begin{align} E(U \mid Y=10) &= P(X=10)(2X) + P(X=5)(X) \end{align} The left and right side of the a...

Y is 10, therefore the sample space for X is . To work out the expected value of U we multiply the probability that X is 5 (0.5) to the value of U if ...

You have two different values of X and so this is misleading. Where you have P(U=2X?Y=10)(2X), the actual value of X is 10, given that you've defined ...

Repeating yourself doesn't make the conclusion go away. If Y is 10 then in case one B = £20 and in case two B = £5.

Replace Y with 10 and you get B = 20 in case 1 and B = 5 in case 2.

So just tell me in actual numbers the possible amounts in the other envelope if my envelope contains £10. If I switch, how much money could I walk awa...

You are handed A and you see £10 inside. There are two cases here: Case One A=10=X By definition of A and B if A=10=X then B=2X therefore B=20 Case Tw...

And it's not clear to me which part you disagree with, so I was hoping you could clarify the problematic step: 1. There's £10 in my envelope 2. My env...

What are you talking about? Heads and tails are mutually exclusive outcomes for a coin toss, yet the sample space for the outcome of a coin toss is .

If I'm right about what? That if there's £10 in my envelope then either X = 10 and the other envelope contains £20 or X = 5 and the other envelope con...

Russia 1 - 0 Croatia Come on Russia! Russia 1 - 1 Croatia Dammit.

I'd switch conditionally as explained here to reap the .25 gain.

It’s about time he paid up. Send a few of his prostitutes to piss on the Croatia team to put them out of sorts.

Come on Russia!

Me.

If there's £10 in my envelope then either X = 10 and the other envelope contains £20 or X = 5 and the other envelope contains £5. We assign a probabil...

I know. When I say that envelope B contains either £5 or £20 I'm saying that either R or S is the case. Whenever we have a sample space (e.g. for a co...

I addressed this. If A is X then X is 10 and B is 2X = £20. If A is 2X then X is 5 and B is X = £5. You're conflating different values of X when you d...

You didn't. What's the value of X where: 1. Envelope A contains £10 2. Envelope B contains either X or 2X

I went over this with Jeremiah. We have £10 in our envelope. Our envelope is either X or 2X. If our envelope is X then the other envelope is 2X and if...

Mueller is a German name, not Chinese, so it's Führer Mueller.

You mean Comey?

Pretty sure Prince Harry did.

I’m not dropping either of those. I’m dropping 10 as an outcome for the other envelope given that it’s in mine. I’m saying that if 10 = X then the oth...

I drop 10 because it’s in my envelope. Therefore it cannot be in the other envelope.

Yes. You said: 1. A is 10. 2. If A is X then B is 2X 3. If A is 2X then B is X. 4. The sample space for B is But you're conflating different values of...

And did you read the rest? If A is X and A is 10 then B is 20. If A is 2X and A is 10 then B has to be 5. Therefore B has to be defined as .

If A is X and A is 10 then B is 20. If A is 2X and A is 10 then B has to be 5. Can B still be defined as ? Either way it has to be defined as .

The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. If there's £10 in my envelope then there are only two possible outcomes; either the other envelo...

Which is all I'm saying. My envelope has £10, so: 1. If my envelope is envelope X then the other envelope is envelope 2X and has £20. 2. If my envelop...

This is valid and the first three premises are true. 1. My envelope could be envelope X 2. My envelope could be envelope 2X 3. My envelope contains £1...

Then we have: 1. My envelope could be envelope X 2. My envelope could be envelope 2X 3. My envelope contains £10. 4. From 1 and 3, the other envelope ...

I'm saying you contradicted yourself, not that your latest (or first) argument is right.

Remember what you said earlier: Now look how you've contradicted yourself. Because a), in using you have different values of X, and b) in using you en...

Yes, sorry, typo.