It's in your OP: "Initially you are allowed to pick one of the envelopes, to open it, and see that it contains $Y." I know. But as you say, our £10 co...
You're missing the "and Y = 10" part: 1. If Y = 10 and X = 10 then ... 2. If Y = 10 and X = 5 then ... Or to put it in simple terms: 1. If my £10 enve...
Obviously. That's how different conditionals work. Let's say I toss a coin and record the result R: 1. If R = heads then ... 2. If R = tails then ... ...
You're conflating. When you say "if Y = X then Z is 2X or X/2" you're defining X as the value of Y, but when you say that the total should be 3X you'r...
Holy shit. I just got an email from Neil Trotter telling me that he and his wife have decided to donate "five Million Great Britain Pounds" to me. All...
What difference does that make? Replace the contestant with someone who doesn’t know anything about the opened boxes. What’s the expected value of his...
I wonder if this is anything like Deal or No Deal. We're down to the last two boxes. Yours either has £20,000 or it has £5,000. The Banker offers you ...
If one guarantees me £10 and the other could be £5 or £20 then I'm going to want the one that could be £20. It doesn't make a difference to me if it's...
No. One envelope has £10 and the other envelope has either £5 or £20. All this talk of X and 2X just confuses matters. It is just the case that there'...
We wouldn't, because we've opened an envelope in this example. I know that there's £10 in my envelope. If from this we can deduce an expected value of...
It doesn't. I know it cannot be both. It's one or the other. If 3X = 30 then there's £20 in the other envelope. If 3X = 15 then there's £5 in the othe...
We're dealing with a situation where we know that there's £10 in our envelope. What's the value of the other envelope? It's possible that it's £5, as ...
That sense of "ought" is akin to what we mean when we say that we ought brush our teeth to keep them healthy. That doesn't seem to be the sense of "ou...
Hmm. There are two separate bets for "Croatia to Win" and "Croatia to Qualify for Final". So I assume that means that if England lose on penalties I d...
Using a coin toss to determine if it's red ball + £5 or red ball + £20 is no different to using it to determine if it's £10 + £5 or £10 + £20 which is...
Your approach to my example of the red ball would be to say that a coin toss determines the value of some X to be put in the other envelope and so tha...
It's the mean of 5 and 20, given that either there's £5 or £20 in the other envelope. Do you disagree with the calculation here with the red ball and ...
Yes, because you’ve said that we don’t know anything. But in the case we’ve been discussing we know that one envelope contains twice as much as the ot...
What I think we need to do is explain what x means here. Is it "the amount that's actually in the smaller envelope"? So: E(U)=P(U is the smaller envel...
That's gone a bit over my head. With the above post in mind, this perhaps better explains where I'm coming from, and perhaps you could explain how it'...
I think the issue is that you and I mean something different by an outcome being possible. Let's say you toss a coin. If it's heads you put a red ball...
Why? And this isn't just about desires but also about rights. Rights, presumably, are more important than desires. If the woman has a right to end her...
Although actually it isn't quite this. It's really that the meaning (use) of a phrase like "the snow is white" is tied to the empirical (and so not re...
I suppose if you take the Wittgensteinian approach to language and argue that meaning is use and then look to how the word "true" is used you'll see t...
Then it sucks to be them. Because a woman's right to have an abortion (performed by a willing doctor) is more important than other people's desire not...
She isn't. There are plenty of doctors who are willing. What Roe vs Wade ensured is that no state can make it illegal to have an abortion. That's not ...
Hence the great debate. Some say it is, others say it isn't. Some say people have the natural right to use firearms in self-defence, others say they d...
Well that's the great debate. They shouldn't have this right because a) the Constitution gives women the right to end their pregnancy, and so the stat...
I think Chalmers' paper on Ontological Anti-Realism is a great companion to Dummett's view. It makes the same sort of distinction between realism and ...
What sort of fact would a moral realist fact be? Is it like a physical fact that can be emperically measured? Is it like a mathematical or logical fac...
You saying that there's a 50% chance that U is 2X given that Y is £10 is you saying that there's a 50% chance that U is £20. You saying that there's a...
Like the EPA. First there was Pruitt, who as attorney general for Oklahoma dissolved the Environmental Protection Unit and raised campaign contributio...
It's the amount you walk away with by following the switching strategy divided by the amount you walk away with by never switching, minus 1. If I was ...
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