Michael

Regarding this, the best I can find is here: Is this what you're referring to? If so, how do you get from that to saying that Veselnitskaya was hired ...

If that were true it doesn't mean that Trump's campaign didn't collude with Russia. It just means that the DNC also did.

The deflationist is just saying that "'the cat is on the mat' is true" and "the cat is on the mat" mean the same thing. Compare it to saying that I am...

Something like "if Clinton had won the election then Trump would have cried himself to sleep that night".

So he admitted that his campaign were colluding with the Russians.

Related to that is the notion of counterfactuals. If Clinton had won the election then ... Is that made true by some non-obtaining state of affairs?

Trump Finally Admits His Campaign Colluded With Russia At Trump Tower Meeting So first it's "no collusion" and then it's "yes collusion, but collusion...

If we're bringing up news presenters then none can beat Sir Trevor McDonald.

I'm not saying that for every value in the chosen envelope it is equally likely that the other envelope contains twice as much as half as much. I'm sa...

That there's more to gain than there is to lose is what can be objectively measured. Either the envelopes contain £5 and £10 and I lose £5 by switchin...

I already said that you have to be willing to lose. If I knew for a fact that I had a 10% chance of losing £1,000,000 and a 90% chance of winning an e...

Imagine you're given £100 and are offered the choice to pay £100 to play a game with a 5/6 chance of winning (say a dice roll). If you win then you wi...

I don't disagree that the average expected value (from repeated games) is v. But that's not what I'm talking about. What I'm talking about is what I s...

How is this any different to saying that I'm equally likely to win as lose?

So to make this a better analogy, let's say that some third party asks us both to play the game. He will roll two dice, and if I win then you give me ...

No, because I know the probabilities aren't in my favour. If I know that they're not in my favour then I won't play. If I know that they're in my favo...

So what I'm saying is that if a) I have no reason to believe that losing is more likely (specifically >= 2/3 chance), b) I gain twice as much if I win...

But you're also not saying that sticking is a winning strategy. If sticking isn't preferred then I am going to switch, because I am willing to risk lo...

I know it's not necessarily equally likely. But we're assuming it, hence why Srap said we should just flip a coin. If there's no reason to believe tha...

So we’re assuming that the other envelope is equally likely to contain either £20 or £5, and that’s a reason to switch. We either lose £5 or gain £10....

The issue is that we’re approaching the problem in two different ways. See here. Both statements are true. Our concern isn’t with defending one or the...

Nagase? We sort of have that here . Didn't really pick up though. Submissions are here.

They're not answering that question.

I think your issue is that although we can accept the truism that "the cat is on the mat" is true iff the cat is on the mat, this doesn't actually say...

https://youtu.be/_YCGFLhrMkk

That doesn't quite seem right as the BIV hypothesis is consistent with physicalism. Their experiences might be manufactured but they're still physical...

Poll: Some Republicans find Russian help in midterms 'appropriate' Called it.

I wonder if what I've been talking about (made more explicit here), is subjective expected utility.

It's something new. I've been posting here (and on the old place) for 12 years. I've argued over all the typical stuff countless times.

I'd like a date on that please.

There's Politics and Current Affairs?

I'm not very well versed in economics, but why isn't free trade just a universal thing?

Yeah, it'll be "Presidents can't be indicted" followed by the Republicans in Congress with "we're not going to impeach him because it looks bad on us"...

Rudy Giuliani Stuns Fox News Hosts With Rambling Account Of Trump Tower Meetings OK guys, so Trump wasn't at this meeting that never happened. Only Jr...

I could do with some coffee too.

Spending my holiday learning Java. Ain't I cool?

I don't think it covers hiring some professional service. Else Trump would have broken the law by paying Chinese workers to make his MAGA hats.

This still looks like you're considering what would happen if we always stick or always switch over a number of repeated games. I'm just talking about...

And some of the time it will be 2v, because it could also be the lower bound. So given that v = 10, the expected value is one of 20, 12.5, or 5. We ca...

But I don't know if my envelope contains the upper bound. Why would I play as if it is, if I have no reason to believe so?

No, because the expected gain is $333,334, which is more than my $1 bet (333,334X), and so it is rational to play.

Bored. Sitting here eating an apple, watching Honest Trailers, and typing this. I will be bored later.

The other way to phrase the difference is that my solution uses the same value for the chosen envelope (10) and your solution uses different values fo...

Say you have £10 in your envelope. If the other envelope contains the larger amount then it contains £20 and if it contains the smaller amount then it...

But we're just talking about a single game, so whether or not there is a cumulative expected gain for this strategy is irrelevant. If it's more likely...

If I don't know the distribution, then yes. For all I know, the distribution could be (£10,£20,£40,£80,£160). But we're just talking about the rationa...

If there is no reason to favour sticking then ipso facto there is reason to favour switching.

There's also the possibility that £10 is the bottom of the distribution, in which case the expected value for switching is £20. Which, as I said befor...

If I know there's £10 in my envelope then the expected value for switching is £12.50, and the expected value for switching back is £10.

I have no way of knowing that my value is "average". Perhaps the 10100 in my envelope is a puny value because the upper bound is Graham's number.