Srap Tasmaner

Your reasons?

I'll rephrase. Did you imagine that players might have some other goal besides maximizing their monetary gain?

Suppose I am a player and I accept your analysis. Suppose also the envelopes are helpfully labeled L and R. Time for me to choose. I consider L. But w...

From the OP: Did you think something else was relevant? Really? Like what?

Btw, I added some functionality to the simulation andrew doesn't like. Counts some more stuff on each run just for extra confirmation of what's going ...

My long-promised take on pictures will happen tomorrow. I'm leaning toward pushing on into 3 pretty quickly too. Stuff there that rounds out what we'v...

Cool, so there's only about two thirds of the book between where we are now and that.

Something is wrong with the way Y is being used, clearly, but I'm not sure this is it. You can get the (b) method out of the (a) method just by substi...

This is a Good Thing™.

<shrug> Whitman wrecked his early work by revising it. Later doesn't equal better. I'm not sure we're far enough along to begin some Grand Appraisal. ...

It would be a start. I don't know what you're on about it, but it looks off topic to me.

My working assumption is that Wittgenstein understood it when he wrote it, so yes, it is possible.

I should not wish to be spared the trouble of thinking.

Cool, thanks.

I'm still not seeing it. We've done to death the example of finding £10 and you calculate an expected gain of £2.50. Or you can do a generic calculati...

Thanks, bro.

No. I think it's debatable whether anyone needs to "know" the amounts in the envelopes for the approach to work. If a machine sets the values, you'll ...

Post what you've tried so far, pointing out what you're not sure about.

I looked at your work, but I only really followed page 1 — I'm learning as I go here. I take it you're just trying to apply known techniques to the pr...

One little bit of off-the-cuff chitchat What I find exciting about the Tractatus is the intimation that everything there is to say about the world is ...

Hey Posty. (Been busy and what time I've had here has gone to the damn two envelopes paradox, but I have not forgotten about TLP.) Maybe this will tur...

The short answer is that logical equivalence is just a matter of truth value, which in turn is just a matter of extension. All the other nuances of la...

I'm going to keep thinking about your approach, and I hope you will as well. As things stand, the game theory approach has been the only game in town,...

Oh yes, everyone decides. Didn't mean to suggest otherwise. But each holds a preference for participating only if all the others participate, and righ...

You are shown two envelopes and told one is twice the value of the other. You are then offered the following choice: you may (a) choose one envelope a...

That's not bad, but you make the first move with an expectation, possibly mistaken, that the other will reciprocate. An even better way to put this is...

The idea is this: You begin knowing only that one of the envelopes on offer is worth twice the other. Upon drawing an envelope, if you designate its v...

That's \small \{ \cfrac{y}{2},2y\}.

You just write it as \small B = \cfrac{\cfrac{y}{2} + 2y}{2}. \small y is whatever's in the envelope in your hand, whether you've looked at it or not....

And I asked you last night about the minimum possible value of X. Your response then was that what matters is not what might or might not be put in th...

I like now & then to quote Ramsey:

Suppose the envelopes on offer contain $10 and $20. You pick one. If your envelope contains $10, then you will be offered the chance to buy the remain...

I must to bed. Cheers.

That's more answer than I'm asking for. What in the rules of the game or in the knowledge you have acquired (i.e., that Y = 10) assures you that the g...

I just don't understand how you know that.

Sorry, yes, I mean Y = 10 ? . X = 5 ? X = 10. You know that at least one of 5 and 10 are possible values of X. Do you know that both are?

One of them must be a possible value of X. Not necessarily both.

What does that mean? You know one of them must be in the distribution of X, but you don't know which. Are you claiming to know that both are in the di...

What is the probability that the envelopes presented to you are valued at 5 and 10? (P(X = 5).) What is the conditional probability that the envelopes...

They are completely different. Michael is allowing participants access to the results of the trials so far performed. This is completely different, an...

X does not vary. You are wrong from the start.

My version of Michael's sim was intended to be quite simple. I imagined it as the question being offered once to 2 x 10^6 participants, half of whom s...

You are presented with two envelopes, one valued at X and one valued at 2X; the average value of an envelope is 3X/2. You choose an envelope, and do n...

Here's a new version that also calculates the average payouts as ratios to X.

That's clever.

Not going to get dragged into some other scenario with you. You are in effect demanding that I figure out what's wrong with your analysis and explain ...

It models it precisely. Your knowing what's in one envelope does not change what's in the other envelope. Here's an example. Suppose for a given trial...

I modified your simulation. <?php $switch = $no_switch = 0; for ($i = 1; $i <= 1000000; ++$i) { // set X $X = random_int(1, 100); // randomly select w...

Suppose X = 1. You pick an envelope. On opening it, you find $2. You have chosen the 2X envelope but you don't know it. Does that mean there is a 1/2 ...