These are your exact words: If this is our experiment: 1. We roll a 2100-sided die 2. Sleeping Beauty is woken up over 2101 days if it rolls a 1 3. Sl...
It is a fact that if this is our experiment 1. We roll a 2100-sided die 2. Sleeping Beauty is woken up over 2101 days if it rolls a 1 3. Sleeping Beau...
I'm not. I'm saying that if this is our experiment: 1. We roll a 2100-sided die 2. Sleeping Beauty is woken up over 2101 days if it rolls a 1 3. Sleep...
One of the things I really like about PlushForums is that when I click on a discussion it takes me to the last comment I viewed, and not just the firs...
These were your exact words: This can be generalised as: Her credence when asked is {a}\over{b}, because of the i possible cells in the n \times m arr...
It's wrong because the expected returns aren't £33.333... if betting on heads or £66.666... if betting on tails. So then can you set out your calculat...
The Online Safety Act applies to all websites that are accessible in the UK, regardless of where the owners live/are incorporated or where the website...
I really don't understand what point you're trying to argue. The facts are that (a) if we are to continue to provide access to UK residents then we mu...
I think you have a misunderstanding of the Online Safety Act. If we don't comply then the Office of Communications (Ofcom) can fine us (up to £18 mill...
It wasn't a typo. Given a 2100-sided die there are 2100 rows, and given that there are 2101 days there are 2101 columns. That gives us a 2100 × 2101 m...
He was banned — probably for low post quality — but then he created a new account, so we banned him again, but then he created a new account, so we ba...
Are you asking about Marco? He's an annoying fucking twat, as elucidated with exceptional eloquence here. Suffice it to say he's the reason this forum...
Before https://thephilosophyforum.com there was another forum. The owner of the old forum sold it to a man named Eric Porat. Some of us had concerns a...
As above, replace the coin with a 2100-sided die. If it lands on a 1 then you are woken up on 2101 days otherwise you are only woken up on one day. Af...
It's a false analogy because "not being woken up" is nothing like "playing football". It's a mistake to consider "Heads + Tuesday" at all. We can simp...
If she is interviewed before playing football her credence that the coin landed on tails is not 1, but if she is interviewed after playing football he...
If Monday is tennis and Tuesday is football then waking up and playing either tennis or football is new information that allows you to rule out one po...
I assume this means that the new site will use a new URL for a time? Because if the new site immediately uses https://thephilosophyforum.com then nobo...
In both cases one's credence in the outcome of the coin toss is 1\over2. We use this credence, in conjunction with the payout structure, to determine ...
I don't understand what you're saying here. Someone is wrong if they claim that God exists but they're not wrong if they claim that the word "God" mea...
Yes, I have tried to argue this point several times. A rational person's credence in the outcome of the coin toss is unrelated to the betting strategy...
What you literally said, and what I am replying to, was "the terms man and woman indicate a person's age and sex, not gender" and this is factually in...
I'm saying that words can have more than one meaning, and that one of the meanings of the word "man" is "someone whose gender is male". I'm not sure w...
To paraphrase Captain Barbossa, they're more what you'd call guidelines than actual rules. And, once again, natural languages just aren't the perfectl...
It's foolish to argue that words should or shouldn't mean something, or to deny the empirical fact that they are used to mean certain things. Well, th...
Not everyone uses the word "slay" to mean "impressive" (or whatever it means to youths these days), but that is nonetheless one of its meanings. If yo...
Again, there's not much sense in this so-called "pragmatically relevant" credence. Even before being put to sleep – and even before the die is rolled ...
I answered your question. Your opening post shows that you understand the distinction between sex and gender, given that you use the phrases "female w...
It doesn’t have just one meaning. It can refer to sex or it can refer to gender. This isn’t to say that it is equally likely to refer to gender as sex...
It's an umbrella term that includes cis men and trans men. A cis man is someone whose sex is male and gender is male. A trans man is someone whose sex...
It doesn't increase her odds but it does increase her expected return in the long run. On this point it's worth considering an extreme example I provi...
It doesn't ignore it. I am simply explaining the empirical fact that your definition is inconsistent with how English speakers actually use the words....
No natural language is clear, unambiguous, and logical. Certainly not English. Maybe check out Loglan if that's your interest. There's nothing about l...
A word's meaning is determined by how its users use it. If a sufficient number of English speakers use the word "man" to refer to both trans men and c...
Words can mean more than one thing. The word "man" can also mean "human", and as a verb it refers to a certain kind of behaviour, e.g. in the phrase "...
You appear to be affirming the consequent. In this case, Tails is noticed twice as often because Tails is twice as likely to be noticed. It doesn't th...
Apologies for doing this as a second post. I did mean to include this earlier but miss-clicked. I think your comment sidestepped the issue I was raisi...
This, I think, shows the fallacy. You're equivocating, or at least begging the question. It's not that there is an increased proclivity to awaken in t...
The multiple bets structure is the misleading structure, and where one is betting on the least likely outcome. If you are offered the opportunity to p...
You seem to continue to conflate an outcome's expected return with its probability and assert that one's behaviour is only governed by one's credence ...
This is where I believe the mistake is made. The question she is asked after being woken up is the same question she is asked before being put to slee...
This makes no sense. There is only one kind of event; being woken up after a die roll. Her credence in the outcome of that die roll cannot be and is n...
It's not an arbitrary payout structure. A £100 reward is paid out at 6:00pm for any correct bet on the outcome of a die roll. Sleeping Beauty and Prin...
Correct. Her reasoning would be: A1. If I keep my bet and the die didn't land on a 6 then I will win £100 A2. If I change my bet and the die did land ...
That doesn't follow. It depends on the manner in which the door is chosen. Compare with a red bag containing 100 balls and a blue bag containing 50 ba...
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