Michael

So you're saying that before I look I can say that there's a 50% chance that my envelope is envelope X but after looking I can't?

I'm just doing this: 1. We pick an envelope at random 2. There's a 50% chance that my envelope is the X envelope and a 50% chance that my envelope is ...

Were you just using my post as a launching pad or were you actually addressing me? Because the rest of my post said exactly this.

But what probabilities does the person in the experiment give to {1, 2} and {2, 4}, given his envelope of $2? He can give them a probability of 0 and ...

I'm talking about the right to liberty. The right to cat ownership might be implied by the right to property, but not by the right to liberty (as unde...

Why not? I've opened the envelope and seen that I have $10. That's in the rules as specified in the OP. And knowing the rules of the game I know there...

They don't (or at least Scalia didn't) rely on original intent. They rely on original meaning.

To make this clearer: Here, X = 5. Here, X = 10. The only way to make sense of this, given that you've added 50X where X = 5 to 100X where X = 10 is t...

Like Baden you're conflating different values of X. Given a starting envelope of $10, if 50 times I have the 2X envelope and don't switch then I earn ...

That's exactly what I did here and here. If in each game we see that we have £10 we win more by switching than by not switching.

Knowing more information changes the probabilities. If you toss a coin and I see that it landed heads then I will say that the probability that it lan...

Don't worry, nobody is thinking about banning you.

Quoting the word "sarcasm" makes it seem that you're being sarcastic in calling it sarcasm. Now I don't know what to think.

Also you spelled "Buxtebuddha" wrong in your image.

And he got kicked out too. We're just following Trump's lead. He is the President after all and deserves our loyalty.

The issue is that in using this variable X you're hiding the inequality. This is your argument above: A1. I have £10. A2. If I have 2X then I lose X b...

So if X is 5 then I lose £5 by switching and if X is 10 then I gain £10 by switching. Nowhere am I saying that it's both 5 and 10 at the same time, so...

We work with what we know, and what we know is that our chosen envelope has £10. Therefore we can't consider the possibility that X is 10 and that our...

If my £10 envelope is Envelope X then switching to Envelope 2X gains me £10. If my £10 envelope is Envelope 2X then switching to Envelope X loses me £...

I don't understand why you're saying that X is 5. We don't know what X is. All we know is that there's £10 in my envelope. The other envelope either h...

I still don't know what you mean by this. I'll put it another way: Let the amount in my envelope = £10. If X = 10 then I have £10 and switching gains ...

Let the amount in my envelope = £10. If I chose Envelope X then I get £10 and switching gains me £10. If I chose Envelope 2X then I get £10 and switch...

You explained the scenario yourself: We play 5,000 games. 2,500 of those games are case L and 2,500 of those games are case K. Assuming we switch, the...

Genius. :lol:

I don't know R, but from what I can gather that's just selecting an outcome at random and showing that the number of times you win is equal to the num...

I'm not treating it as known. I'm saying that there's more to gain than there is to lose. I don't need to know what X is to know that if I have £10 th...

No I'm not, hence why I'm saying it's 5 in some situations and 10 in others.

Which is: In the event of L our expected gain loss sample space is In the event of K our expected gain loss sample space is So there's more to gain by...

I don't know what you mean by this. I don't accept this interpretation of probability. Say you toss a coin and if it's heads you put a blue ball in a ...

So by switching you either lose £5 or you gain £10 (each equally likely). There's more to gain by switching than there is to lose. Therefore it's bett...

There are two equally likely scenarios (say the experimenter tosses a coin to determine which scenario to set up): 1. One envelope contains £10 and th...

If your envelope contains £10 then the other envelope contains either £5 or £20 (picked at random for each game).

Here's a program to show what I mean: <?php $switch = $no_switch = 0; for ($i = 1; $i <= 1000000; ++$i) { // Our envelope contains £10 $chosen = 10; /...

Obviously you'll only win if you have X. My point is that by switching there's a 50% chance of gaining an extra £10 and a 50% chance of losing £5. Tho...

Yes, and the X that you lose is £5 and the X that you gain is £10. Therefore, there's more to gain than there is to lose.

Your reasoning is: I have £10. If X is 5 then I lose £X by switching. If X is 10 then I gain £X by switching. So it's either -£X or +£X. This is symme...

So there are two different ways to describe the situation, each leading to a different conclusion: 1. I have $y and the other envelope contains either...

It's not the same thing. I'm saying that if I have £10 then I either lose £5 by switching or gain £10. You're saying that if I have £10 and the other ...

It's not. Mine is closer to how one would understand it were we to look in the envelope before deciding. If we open the envelope and see £10 then we k...

The amount you have is $x. The other envelope contains either $2x or $\frac{x}{2}. If it's $2x then you gain $x by switching. If it's $\frac{x}{2} the...

You bet $\frac{x}{2} on heads. If you win you get $\frac{3x}{2} back. The odds of winning are \frac{1}{2}.

Planned Parenthood v. Casey states that "matters, involving the most intimate and personal choices a person may make in a lifetime, choices central to...

I've moved the discussion on the Constitution here. Feel free to suggest a better title. I suck at them.

That's like saying that because historical people referred to the mentally ill as being possessed by demons then the meaning of the phrase "possessed ...

As a bet it seems like a 2:1 payout? You have £10. You bet £5 on heads. If you win you get £15 back. And you're betting on a coin toss. Is that right?

OK, so the initial answer is that it doesn’t matter as there’s a 50% chance of having picked the more valuable envelope and switching doesn’t change t...

By £2X do you mean twice what’s in the other envelope?

I think this is the wrong way to understand language. You and a slave owner might mean the same thing by “moral” but disagree on which things are mora...

Do you honestly not understand the concept of checks and balances? What are you talking about? It's quite simple; a Supreme Court justice shouldn't be...

The opposition is intended to represent the will of the people. If the government introduces some order that infringes on the rights of the people the...