22 days ago, March 4th (aka 7 to 10 doubling periods yonder): Today, March 24th: (use noscript with firefox to defeat paywall, only epistemologicaly o...
Also a big problem that needs to be added to the specialized skills needed to keep someone alive on a respirator, is a large majority of respirator pa...
Many comments previous, I get into this subject when it was clear that containment was being half-asked to protect the stock market, and then containm...
Why write an excoriation, why not just acknowledge the hypocrisy and reconsider your world view? Unless your goal is to be a hypocrite: in which case,...
No, you are simply wrong and have not bothered to inform yourself of the basic science of what's going on. The mechanism of protecting the vulnerable ...
No, you're just engaging in fantasy science. If people are getting the disease they can transmit it to vulnerable people while they have the disease. ...
This is just basic common sense. If your strategy of getting herd immunity of a disease is everybody actually getting that disease, you're going to ma...
The argument is the timing. That lot's of policy measures were available before. It's like you have a bucket of water to put out a camp fire; you're t...
This is not tricky, you are simply flat out wrong. People developing immunity through getting the disease is how you maximize the chance vulnerable pe...
Isn't an inept response by definition ridiculous, and deserving of ridicule? How is society going to learn without signals such as ridiculing the inep...
These observations are correct on an individual level. The reason for mass testing is systemic. Even ignoring how to increase the accuracy of the test...
Yes! You finally get it. If we're interested in a time frame where exponential growth is accurate (or accurate enough for our purposes) it's perfectly...
This is exactly what I explain in the sentence you reference. If in some time frame of interest (such as "until now"), the data fits an exponential gr...
Sorry I missed this. This is good news since you're just being facetious for nothing, in my opinion, but I'm in self isolation so have plenty of time ...
This is just how scientists talk. I can provide plenty of examples of scientists using implied domain of validity in talking about fitting curves to d...
That's what I explain: it maybe going towards linear growth, but right now it's still exponential growth, some percentage of the population is growing...
Although this week has reduced the growth rate compared to the week previous which was consistently above 20%, this could represent testing decoupling...
This is still exponential, in a local region of time, just that the doubling time is getting steadily longer according to official diagnosis. Since th...
No, your math is wrong. The spread does discriminate, based on social distancing measures. It's exponential, during the first outbreak phase, if those...
You're saying the deaths weren't considered severe before they died? Or that currently there are no severe cases because the severe cases died and no ...
Yes, I think that's how philosophy works: people argue their case. However, I disagree with your implication that I am arguing "my intention was good"...
This is still more medical authority compared to someone who knows nothing about medicine. Of course you believe you did the best you could with the i...
It's not a personal attack. It's a personal prediction, but I have strong arguments for why the prediction will come true. If my prediction is untrue,...
You provide the counter examples to your own argument. That's not a good debate tactic. South Korea is also a great example of what competence looks l...
It's not an attack. It's a prediction. I predict you can't avoid the consequences of an overloaded medical system if you are a medical professional. I...
It's like starting a fire in your house. In the beginning it's just a candle and the fire is "contained" so nothing to worry about, then the candle fa...
Did you even read to the end of the sentence? Why would saying I'll do something later imply I am unable to do it? I can't go into this now, because t...
I'm just going to appreciate this beautiful exercise in mental gymnastics, let it stand a bit as a refined and advanced example of the double-think ta...
This is just insane. There's so many things wrong with this I don't know where to start. It seems that reality has caught up to the "I'm a contrarian ...
This is not a correct analysis, even if the premise "there are about 10 asymptomatics" is true. Asymptomatic's refer only to people who do not have sy...
Normally this is the case for the kind of comment the author makes. But the author does his utmost cleverest to be even stupider, and throws out scena...
I don't think this is quite fair. If they could have just given the airlines billions to solve the problem; some expensive device that instantly diagn...
Yes, but only because the rosy scenarios have clearly been essentially ruled out by nearly everyone who's following along. The author is still a hold ...
What a complete idiot; can't believe this guy is correlated with the word "statistics". That's academia for you. His reasoning is completely preposter...
Because the OP does not specify an axiomatic system but describes the problem essentially in Euclidean geometry. The OP doesn't say "what does real an...
My terminology? I just gave you the definition twice of continuously differentiable, the derivative function is continuous. I've made it pretty clear ...
Yes, that's why I said "non-differentiability is not the end to it". But it's a good litmus test (that intuitions may not apply). Without the non-diff...
These jumps are what I was referring to as not everywhere differentialable. However, I'm not saying that differentiability is the end of it, only that...
For instance, to demonstrate the loss of credibility: Obviously, no one has confidence in this "stimulus" and everyone wants out. If the FED steps in ...
Though I agree with your basic point that herd immunity may not be a thing, the numbers could represents a few scenarios. A large part of this is expl...
"Traders" (as a whole) do not engage in strategic buying and selling to create more volatility. Some traders, who believe they can both A. contribute ...
It does not matter what the the traders want. Or rather, what they want is incidental to how they will try to act. If they think the market is going d...
Here I am mainly referring to financial institutions like the central banks. I.e. no more tools that can work in the existing paradigm to maintain it'...
Why didn't I follow your instruction then? If I "need" others to tell me what to do? Seems your theory doesn't link predictions to observations. Maybe...
Now that the important philosophical subject of how trades are executed on stock exchanges has been investigated, I propose we move onto the general t...
The "police of the market" like the SEC in the US can investigate if things seem manipulated. Such as lots of shares being dumped before a big announc...
Well, doesn't make nonsense, as most people seem to be immune from reinfection ... at least until now (immunity can be surprisingly short term for som...
Then we're in agreement. At the early stage, the cases-to-critical ratio care can be far from the global average. But there's no reason to believe it ...
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