An alternative strategic view of the "Russia has already lost" narrative, is as follows: Obviously Russia hasn't already lost, but still holds most of...
On the subject of Ziehan. I do think he's a good faith actor genuinely believing what he says, and has lot's of interesting facts and I think generall...
There's been a lot of internet debate on "tactical retreat" vs. "just retreat", which I think is worth clarifying to said internet denizens. The mini ...
Yes, in the context of "we will not negotiate!" then winning is the surrender of the opposing side. None of these scenarios are "winning the war". Thi...
Correction, 80% of Ukrainians think NATO can defeat Russia using Ukrainians as proxy soldiers. No one believes "Ukraine", as such, can defeat Russia. ...
Not really at all. Most wars are resolved in surrender of one side (or the negotiated resolution to preempt complete surrender while there is still so...
Your position so far seems to be: Step one: everyone on Western social media agree Russia is bad Step two: everyone on Western social media agree that...
I second @"Benkei" in his response above, but again, even assuming you are right, if: 1. Russia isn't going to change it's perspective 2. NATO isn't g...
You still fail to even get the point. Even assuming Russia is entirely in the wrong and no one else is responsible for anything, NATO isn't going to g...
And, if your goal is to turn Europe into a pale reflection of the US across the pond. The recent hundreds of billions of weapons purchase commitments ...
Also brings up the other big irony is that the war is only a policy possibility for Russia due to climate change opening up the arctic for shipping cr...
The greatest tragedy of course is there will be no further potential to even pretend to agree on climate change and environmental policies. Again, som...
I think it's also worth pointing out the great irony of the geopolitical situation for Europe, is that cheerleaders for the war are "liberals" but the...
Not only this, but also leads to faulty analysis of the military situation. For, the premise that Russian soldiers are low morale and will collapse .....
@"Olivier5" argued that if Ukraine didn't fight back and Russia simply marched into Kiev unopposed that would mean the feint (though I think "fixing" ...
It's not a time honoured tradition to not address what your interlocutors actually say. If you want to honour this tradition you're talking about, you...
I don't see anyone claiming this. Rather, a good military plan includes what to do if certain missions fail. Certainly plan A was Kiev accept the offe...
The maps do not really put things in perspective. There is a massive difference between the areas in the North previously occupied by the Russians and...
Agree, but the point of geopolitical analysis is to try to tease out what is more or less likely to happen, rather than be satisfied with the observat...
Sure, yeah, that's possible. Also possible. I don't disagree. We've been discussing these recent military developments, but there is still all the pol...
Again, this has been claimed since basically day 2 of the invasion. Sure, maybe, but as simply a propaganda statement to keep social media spirits hig...
There's also one detail that's fairly puzzling in this new narrative that Kharkiv was the real prize and Kherson just a fixing operation, which is tha...
This seems to me completely delusional. And again, I stated my position before these offensives: taking Kherson would be a turning point. I have not c...
Agreed. Losing Kherson would be both bad militarily (likely thousands, if not tens of thousands, stuck and captured troops) as well as intensely embar...
To followup my post above comparing to Isreal. Perhaps a good diction for this sort of analysis, is defining military-diplomatic victory, which I woul...
Crimea seems truly completely unfeasible for Ukrainians to ever reconquer, without NATO supplying systems like an entire fleet of ships and hundreds o...
Sure you can define "win" in some way that doesn't involve defeating your enemy, why for the context I'm talking about I put "winning" quotations. The...
Additionally, for sure Ukraine cannot defeat Russia in any of the proposed definitions of "winning" and has never been in a position to be able to. Th...
That's obvious. First, "winning" the war would mean defeating Russia, which is pretty obviously Ukraine is not capable of invading and conquering Russ...
Have you followed Western media? However, if you're simply stating that the "retired generals" and other talking heads in major Western media aren't s...
The same analysts that said Russian troops have low morale and will completely collapse ... like 2 days into the war? Doesn't take an analyst to see R...
What are you talking about? I stated taking Kherson is the litmus test of Ukrainian counter offensive potential. It is obviously vulnerable and obviou...
That's not "standing" with someone, it's supplying arms. Because there's an important port in Sevastopol which an anti-Russian government supported by...
I won't post the bat-shit insane things the neo-Nazi's have said, as I don't want to deal with Nazi apologetics just right now. Maybe in a few days. S...
A circle jerk of factoids and propaganda is not a philosophical discussion. You can say "Russia's bad" and "Russia could withdraw" all you want, but i...
Again, no one is actually "standing" with Ukraine, except a few foreign fighters. If Norwar and other NATO countries were actually standing with Ukrai...
Oh yes, I totally agree it would be an issue for a male, especially prime minister, but some woman see it differently. But how bad an issue, and also ...
My woman friends claim it wouldn't even be an issue if it was a male politician. There's a bunch of examples of male politicians getting blackout drun...
First I need to point out to everyone how confusing it is to be in Finland until you realise Finn's will use he / she pronouns interchangeably in refe...
Sure, it might be so. Obviously NATO expansion is a plausible motive and clearly a main driver of hostilities and tensions over the decades since the ...
That's not what I nor Philip short is stating. The thesis is clear: We don't really know what the motives are, there is widespread disagreement, and s...
Again, if this is true, how are we talking. Furthermore, my last post was simply quoting a literal "authoritative biographer of Putin" explaining basi...
To be clear, it's not my perspective but the pretty standard view among professional physicists (that I have talked to or have heard lecture). The Fey...
By confidence the following was published today in The Guardian: All just "propaganda" a literal biographer of Putin pointing out we don't know Putin'...
I'm not saying they haven't, I'm just pointing out that there's no reason to assume it's some miscalculation or mistake. There's negative consequences...
Again, wild speculations by Western media. The raid could be that someone sold information to the Americans (they did "know about" the invasion), or w...
I think it's more how quantum mechanics is usually presented to a general audience, there is usually a "philosophical agenda", such as multi-world's t...
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