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JeffJo

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It's clear you don't understand mine. Nor have you tried. Yes, it is. That is exactly what you have not addressed. And you would be wrong to do so. Al...
December 21, 2019 at 17:09
And you still haven't grasped the very simple fact that no field of mathematics claims to be "correct", or that another is not. Only that no statement...
December 20, 2019 at 11:15
Not the end of the story. Definitions are not commutative. An axiom is indeed a "proposition regarded as self-evidently true without proof." That does...
December 19, 2019 at 22:35
You gave an example of a near-religious belief. It was never an axiom in a consistent mathematics.This is similar to the belief that we can't treat al...
December 19, 2019 at 11:36
My point is that they can't. That's why they are axioms. There are no absolute truths in Mathematics, only the concepts we choose to accept as true. W...
December 18, 2019 at 21:45
With all due respect, if you want "actual truth", then you do not understand the purpose of an axiom in mathematics. The point is that mathematics con...
December 17, 2019 at 13:41
I'm sorry, I worded that poorly. We don't establish the existence of these sets by proof. We do it by the axioms we choose to accept. And since all pr...
December 16, 2019 at 21:49
The problem is that CDA isn't a reductio ad absurdum proof; at least not as people think. The common presentation of it as reductio fails logically. A...
December 15, 2019 at 22:53
Note that this is rational number; more specifically, a rational number whose proper-form denominator is equal to (2^n)*(5*m) for integers n and m. Th...
December 15, 2019 at 18:57
Bingo.
August 06, 2018 at 16:24
Statistics is a branch of applied mathematics that uses probability theory to analyze, and draw inferences from, data. That's why probability theory i...
August 06, 2018 at 12:31
Then please, show us one that applies to the problem. And explain how it is a "well justified" anything, and not just a hypothetical.
August 06, 2018 at 12:14
You seem to think that it is only the highest-possible v where you have an expected loss. Maybe you are confused by the fact that it was the easiest e...
August 06, 2018 at 12:13
No, I agree it has to be constrained to operate in the real world. That's why there has to be a real-world maximum value, you can't have an arbitraril...
August 06, 2018 at 12:04
It cannot be equally likely without postulating a benefactor with (A) an infinite supply of money, (B) the capability to give you an arbitrarily-small...
August 05, 2018 at 14:58
But it can't be unbounded and uniform. So it is inconsistent in all possible cases. What you are saying, is that if you postulate a distribution where...
August 05, 2018 at 14:44
Certainly. It is a complicated way of saying that, before you choose, the expected values of the two envelopes are the same. There is even a simpler w...
August 04, 2018 at 20:32
But it isn't logically consistent. With anything. That's what I keep trying to say over and over. 1.25v is based on the demonstrably-false assumption ...
August 04, 2018 at 11:46
And since the OP does not include information relating to this, it does not reside in this "real world."
August 03, 2018 at 19:57
The sample distribution of a statistic is the distribution of that statistic, considered as a random variable, when derived from a random sample of si...
August 03, 2018 at 19:55
A normal distribution refers to a random variable whose range is (-inf,inf), and is continuous. The first cannot apply to the TEP, and the second is i...
August 03, 2018 at 14:02
I think this illustrates the issue you are struggling with: Say you have a perfectly-balanced cube with the numbers "1" thru "6" painted ion the sides...
August 03, 2018 at 13:54
I'm not sure what "real world" has to do with anything. But... Probability theory does not tell us how to define outcomes. The outcomes of a coin toss...
August 03, 2018 at 13:38
And I'm sure I intended to have a "not" in there somewhere. I'll fix it.
August 03, 2018 at 13:20
Exactly. Maybe I need to explain Simpson's "Paradox." It is a very similar, not-paradoxical fallacy. It just seems to be a paradox if you use probabil...
August 02, 2018 at 14:53
I know we are reaching an equivalent conclusion. My point is that the framework that it fits into may be different. These concepts can seem ambiguous ...
August 02, 2018 at 14:15
No, it isn't fair to say that. No more than saying that the probability of heads is different for a single flip of a random coin, than for the flips o...
August 01, 2018 at 15:39
I'll get to a more qualitative solution to the problem at the end of this post. I hope it helps. Define "interact." Say I reach into both of my pocket...
August 01, 2018 at 15:34
What you "cannot" do is assign probabilities to the cases. You can still - and my point is "must" - treat them as random variables, which have unknown...
August 01, 2018 at 14:13
I like this explanation. And I thought of a possibly better way explain how "unknown" is used in the TEP, by analogy: Say you are given a geometry pro...
August 01, 2018 at 14:11
The puzzling part is about our understanding the mathematics, not how we use it to solve the problem. But that still makes it a probability problem. P...
July 31, 2018 at 22:05
There is an interesting distribution proposed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_envelopes_problem#Second_mathematical_variant. Note that, like all ...
July 31, 2018 at 15:07
I apologize to this forum for allowing myself to be taken off topic by a troll. +++++ The difficulty with the field of probability, is that there can ...
July 31, 2018 at 14:46
And it is even more obvious you want to use statistics anywhere you can, no matter how inappropriate. The lexicon of both probability and statistics i...
July 30, 2018 at 18:33
Let's just look at our first interaction here: By this, I was clearly referring to the valid discrete sample space {"Win", "Lose"}. An event space is ...
July 30, 2018 at 15:00
But your expectation uses the value in the other envelope, so this is an incomplete phrasing. That's why it is wrong. And you are ignoring my comparis...
July 29, 2018 at 19:32
What you said was: "... uses repeated random events to make inference about an unknown distribution." Since an event is a set of possible outcomes, an...
July 29, 2018 at 19:19
Statistics uses repeated observations of outcomes from a defined sample space, to make inference about the probability space associated with that samp...
July 29, 2018 at 17:00
When all you consider is the relative chances of "low" compared to "high," this is true. When you also consider a value v, you need to use the relativ...
July 29, 2018 at 16:41
Why would you think that? In my opinion, the debate between Bayesian and Frequentist, or "objective" and "subjective," has nothing whatsoever to to wi...
July 28, 2018 at 15:59
And few have doubted it. Certainly not I - I said the equivalent many times. But that solution doesn't explain why 5v/4 is wrong, it just provides a c...
July 28, 2018 at 14:48
The purpose is to show why the formula (v/2)/2 + (2v)/2 = 5v/4 is wrong. The approach behind the formulation is indeed correct; it just makes a mistak...
July 28, 2018 at 14:42
How could anyone who has read this thread have possibly concluded that I ever made this conclusion? When all I said was that any use of statistics - w...
July 28, 2018 at 14:27
The *actual* truth is that you have been misinterpreting me from my very first post (), and you continue to demonstrate that here. In that post, I cit...
July 27, 2018 at 18:31
Described this way, the "1.25 expectation" is not fallacious, it just makes an unwarranted assumption. It is the consequences of that assumption that ...
July 27, 2018 at 15:08
When you deal with continuous random variables, you use the probability density function F(x). You then use events that describe ranges of values, lik...
July 27, 2018 at 14:45
My points have been that the results of these simulations can be proven by considering the properties of probability distributions in general, and tha...
July 27, 2018 at 14:29
I was being terse. A longer version of what I said is "So '2X' is meaningless if you try to use it as a value." This thread has gone on too long, and ...
July 27, 2018 at 14:17
And my response to these sentiments has always been that you can't define/calculate the prior distribution, and that it was a misguided effort to even...
July 26, 2018 at 19:29
Choosing any explicit distribution for the OP is indeed misguided, which is why your simulations were misguided. That, and the fact that your conclusi...
July 26, 2018 at 13:52