Yes, it sure is close. But not exact. Maybe you could explain why we can approximate, and why only this one example chosen to produce that result is i...
It is a lie that that is my argument. I'm sorry to be so blunt, but I have repeated my argument for you, and this is not it. If you do not understand ...
It sure looks like you are. You are selecting numbers to get 2/3 as an answer, when it is not the answer in general. What I keep trying to get across,...
And if it had been a 6-day experiment, it would be 6/10=3/5. The point being that you are constructing a specific case, unclearly (your original didn'...
Then it was a misunderstanding that, if I may be bold, has all the appearance of being a misrepresentation of what you don't want to see if it would s...
I was assuming that was a typo, so I ignored it. Would you like to ask a question about what "my reasoning" would say? Because you have it horribly wr...
It is true, because the information is what can happen on this day and days like it, vs. what can happen on other days that is different. It is true, ...
You can't call it a "false analogy" if you don't actually address the analogy. Which you didn't. The point of asking a question is to get an answer to...
So you are saying that if everything is the same as in the popular version but SB plays tennis before the interviews, that her credence is 1/3? But if...
I'm assuming that nobody can answer this is a way that is consistent with the canonical halfer answer. Within the subject's knowledge, her waking expe...
An N-day experiment: The days of the experiment are named D(1) through D(N). D(0) is the night before the experiment begins, when SB is informed of al...
So, are you saying that the week skips from Monday to Wednesday if the coin lands on Heads? What it they wait to flip the coin until Tuesday Morning? ...
You are inserting details into the description of the outcomes, that provide no additional information. It has nothing to do with the of my position. ...
No. The reason I keep asking for specific answers to specific questions, is that I find that nobody addresses "my sample space." Even though I keep re...
It's supposed to turn the continuous passage of time into a discrete outcome. And yes, I have had halfers try to make that an issue. The Principle of ...
"Gee, what do I know? Well, if the coin landed Tails then there is another waking I have to go to, and I have to split the prior probability of Heads ...
quote="Pierre-Normand;1022039"]Before Beauty sleeps, the attendants lay out a garden she knows everything about: At the gate there's a fair fork: Head...
When SB N is awake, while she is aware of the map, she has no information that she can use to place herself in that map. IT IS IRRELEVANT. In any way ...
The SB problem is a classic illustration of confusing what probability is about. It is not a property of the system (the coin in the SB problem), it i...
You can refer to any part of the experiment you want. Sleeping Beauty knows all of the parts (*), but has no means to relate her current awake period ...
And I'm saying that this is the exact reason why she cannot base credence on what may, or may not, be the other part(s) of the "run" she is in. I'm sa...
Exactly. That is the opposite side of the ability you claim she could have, to make one "other awakening" selectively pop into significance based on k...
<Sigh.> I can repeat this as often as you ignore it. The experiment, when viewed from the outside, consists of two possible runs. The experiment that ...
You are one of four volunteers gathered on Sunday Night. You see the combinations "Monday and Heads," "Monday and Tails," "Tuesday and Heads," and "Tu...
SB does not know if a waking day is a Monday. Only that it is a waking day. She can eliminate the sleeping day because she knows this is a waking day....
SB "locates" herself in one of the four possible states in the experiment. These states exist whether or not she would be able to observe them, That w...
She is asked for her credence. I'm not sure what you think that means, but to me it means belief based on the information she has. And she has "new in...
And.... you continue to ignore the obvious point I am making. You keep looking at an "outcome" as what occurs over two days. The only "outcome" SB see...
Oh? You mean that a single car can say both "Monday & Tails" and "Tuesday & Tails?" Please, explain how. "What is your credence in the fact that this ...
Uh, yeah? Write "Heads and Monday" on one notecard. Write "Tails and Monday" on another, and "Tails and Tuesday" on a third. Turn them over, and shuff...
Perhaps you didn't parse correctly. There is no ambiguity. If she is asked to project her state of knowledge on Wednesday, or to recall it from Sunday...
This is what invalidates your variation. She is asked during the experiment, not before or after. Nobody contests what her answer should be before or ...
You may have read it. You did comment on it from that aspect. But you did not address it. The points it illustrates are: That each "day" (where that m...
Yep. What makes it an independent outcome, is not knowing how the actual progress of the experiment is related to her current situation. This is reall...
When she is awake, what knowledge does she have, related to any other day or coin result? This is what seems difficult to accept. SB's "world" consist...
His explanation for "double halfers" used two coin flips. There is only one coin flip. So it is both incorrect mathematics, and incorrect about the do...
Yes, that makes the answer 1/2 BECAUSE IT IS A DIFFERENT PROBLEM. SB is asked once on each waking day, not once at the end. To even try to make it sim...
The point is that, like you, they construct the reasons in order to get the result they want. Not because the reasons are consistent in mathematics. B...
How about this schedule: . M T W H F S 1 A E E E E E 2 A B E E E E 3 A B A E E E 4 A B A B E E 5 A B A B A E 6 A B A B A B When A happens, if E is tre...
Right. And this is they get the wrong answer, and have to come up with contradictory explanations for the probabilities of the days. See "double halfe...
Then try this schedule: . M T W H F S 1 A E E E E E 2 A A E E E E 3 A A A E E E 4 A A A A E E 5 A A A A A E 6 A A A A A A Here, A is "awake and interv...
Thank you for that. But you ignored the third question: Does it matter if E is "Extended sleep"? That is, the same as Tuesday&Heads. in the popular ve...
It's "addressed" to what I thought was a discussion forum. You know, to discuss this problem and the approach to its solution. And more specifically, ...
You didn't respond to a single point in it. You only acknowledged its existence, while you continued your invalid analysis about changing bets and exp...
According to the often-misrepresented, original Thirder analysis by Adam Elga, there are two independent random elements: the coin toss, and the day. ...
SB has no unusual "epistemic relationship to the coin," which is what the point of my new construction was trying to point out. That fallacy is based ...
Sorry to resurrect. But I recently thought of a way to explain exactly how the halfers are misinterpreting the problem. It is based on how Marilyn vos...
It's known as the Sleeping Beauty Problem. No. It "suggests" that the conditional probability of an outcome depends on any information that is obtaine...
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