So if the coin combination is HH then the participant will be asked their credence during the second pass? If so then you are wrong when you said "she...
What matters is the probability that you will be asked for your credence at least once during the experiment. In the normal problem you are certain to...
No they're not. I'll quote you: The lab assistant only asks for my credence if the coin combination isn't HH. If you take away this condition and so I...
The passer-by can see a mix of single and double-flashing fireflies. Sleeping Beauty can't. She either sees one firefly flash once or she sees one fir...
In your scenario there are a bunch of flashes going off in a forest and me, a passer-by, randomly sees one of them. This is comparable to a sitter bei...
If we apply your reasoning to the example here then we conclude that P(Heads|Awake) = 1/2, which I think is wrong. I'm less likely to wake if tails an...
In your example being asked your credence isn't certain. In Sleeping Beauty's it is. That's why your example isn't equivalent. Pierre-Normand also tri...
That's not what I said. In the Sleeping Beauty problem I am guaranteed to wake up at least once if tails and guaranteed to wake up at least once if he...
What matters is that in the Sleeping Beauty problem the prior probability of being asked one's credence at least once is 1 and the prior probability o...
If on each day the chance to escape is 1/2 then the prior probability of being given at least one chance to escape if the dice rolls 1-5 is 1/2 and if...
This has nothing to do with credence. I am asked to place two bets on a single future coin toss. If the coin lands heads then only the first bet is co...
These are two different problems: 1. A is woken once if heads, twice if tails 2. A is woken once if heads, A and B once each if tails In the first pro...
In the original problem the prior probability of being asked one's credence at least once is 1 and the prior probability of being asked one's credence...
I know that it is. I'm trying to show that it shouldn't be. Such reasoning is only correct where the situation is such that your outcome is randomly s...
Exactly. It is precisely because the prior probability of being asked at least once is 3/4 that the probability that the first coin landed heads is 1/...
You toss two coins and don’t ask them their credence if both land heads. That’s what makes your experiment equivalent to my second example where B isn...
A slightly different example. If the coin lands heads then Sleeping Beauty is woken on Monday and kept asleep on Tuesday. If the coin lands tails then...
This is where a realist would disagree. We can't know what's happening in the Andromeda Galaxy right now, but something is happening. Either "intellig...
Because of what I said before: A1. there are twice as many Tunisian walkers as Italian walkers A2. therefore, if I go out and meet at random one of th...
That doesn't mean that the credence isn’t transitive. My premises "fail" to account for it because it's irrelevant. A iff B P(B) = 1/2 Therefore, P(A)...
The argument on that page accepts that relativity of simultaneity is true but claims that "all observers’ 3D worlds are real at every event" is false ...
We have two different experiments: 1. A is woken once if heads, twice if tails 2. A is woken once if heads, A and B once each if tails Your version of...
P1. If I am assigned at random either a H-interview set or a T-interview set then my interview set is equally likely to be a H-interview set P2. I am ...
I introduce the additional premise(s) because this is a non sequitur: A1. there are twice as many Tunisian walkers as Italian walkers A2. I am twice a...
We start with the mutually agreeable premise: P1) there are twice as many T-awakenings Your conclusion is: C) T-awakenings are twice as likely Obvious...
I believe this credence is based on fallacious reasoning as explained here. Her reasoning is: if 1) there are twice as many Tunisian walkers and if 2)...
Your argument is that: if 1) there are twice as many T-awakenings and if 2) I randomly select one of the awakenings then 3) it is twice as likely to b...
This goes back to my distinction between: 1. One should reason as if one is randomly selected from the set of all participants 2. One should reason as...
We have two different experiments: 1. A is woken once if heads, twice if tails 2. A is woken once if heads, both A and B once each if tails Given that...
These are two different sets of claims: A1. there are twice as many Tunisian-meetings because Tunisian-meetings are twice as likely A2. Tunisian-meeti...
This is just repeating the same thing in a different way. That there are twice as many T-awakenings just is that Sleeping Beauty is awakened twice as ...
I've since edited my post to make my point clearer. To repeat: In this case: 1. there are twice as many Tunisian-meetings because Tunisian-meetings ar...
In this case: 1. there are twice as many Tunisian-meetings because Tunisian-meetings are twice as likely 2. Tunisian-meetings are twice as likely beca...
I'm not seeing it. Light cones concern causal past and causal future. The Rietdijk–Putnam argument and Andromeda Paradox concern events outside the li...
Which of these are you saying? 1. There are twice as many T-awakenings because tails is twice as likely 2. Tails is twice as likely because there are ...
I think you're confusing two different things here. If the expected return of a lottery ticket is greater than its cost it can be rational to buy it, ...
Would you not agree that this is a heads interview if and only if this is a heads experiment? If so then shouldn't one's credence that this is a heads...
This is a non sequitur. See here where I discuss the suggestion that P(Monday) = 2/3. What we can say is this: P(Unique | Heads) = {{P(Heads | Unique)...
No. This has nothing to do with what one person sees. There are distant events happening in my present that I cannot see because they are too far away...
So we have two different versions of the experiment: First 1. she’s put to sleep, woken up, and asked her credence in the coin toss 2. the coin is tos...
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