I'd say Georgia is more important. If Trump wins the next election then he's obviously going to pardon himself. Or if another Republican wins then the...
‘Whistleblower’ who accused Bidens of corruption is charged with arms trafficking and violating Iran sanctions Clearly this is just Biden getting reve...
I appreciate the reply but I’ve run out of motivation and am going to end my involvement with this. I wouldn’t change my bet, so I’m a committed halfe...
If a die rolls a 6 then Sleeping Beauty is woken six times otherwise she is woken once. When woken what is her credence that the die rolled a 6? Halfe...
The rules of the experiment say that she won’t be woken on Tuesday if the coin lands heads. That means that the prior probability that she will be wok...
Pr(Heads & Day = D) = 1/2 * 1/N. That aside, using your above reasoning, in the normal problem the prior probability that she will be woken on Tuesday...
My wording may have been imprecise. Both of these are true (note the tense): 1. To reach the toucon enclosure I must first turn right at the fork and ...
I’m only considering one fork as only that is comparable to the Sleeping Beauty problem. What’s true of multiple forks isn’t true of one fork, as evid...
It's not. You say: "If the coin landed on Heads, then an N-sided die is rolled, where N>=2. She is woken on day D1 - that is, D1 days after day 0 - wh...
1. The next enclosure is the toucon enclosure iff I first turned right at the fork (P = 1\over2) and then passed the tiger enclosure. 2. My credence t...
I can't prove a negative. If there is some prior probability that is ruled out when woken then tell me what it is. If you can’t then I have every reas...
If they mean different things then 4 and 5 are neither definitions nor true by definition, and given that 1, 2, and 3 are true (and that "the degree t...
These mean two different things: 1. My credence favours this being a tails awakening rather than a heads awakening 2. There are more tails awakenings ...
It doesn’t. If my credence in A changes then my credence in B will change along with it (or my credence in A iff B will change). I have since changed ...
There is only one meaning I'm using: "the degree to which I believe that the proposition is true". It's stated as much in P1. If I am certain that A i...
So which premises are false or which conclusions do not follow? My current interview being the first or the second T-awakening are exclusive events. B...
When I said that the only things that matter are: 1. She has either one or two interviews determined by a fair coin toss and 2. She doesn’t know if sh...
Nothing in your above post tells me what prior probability is ruled out when she's woken in this experiment. In your experiment the prior probability ...
So tell me what prior probability is ruled out in my experiment above. If there isn't one then there isn't one in the ordinary experiment either. You ...
I know I referred you to one of my previous posts, but I’ll respond to this directly too. We’re discussing credence. If I am certain that A is true if...
She is put to sleep on day 0. If the coin lands heads then a 14-sided dice is rolled. She is woken that many days later and asked her credence. If the...
Then before the experiment starts the thirder will say "since I now know that I will soon rationally infer that the coin will have landed heads with p...
And her being woken a second time if the coin lands heads can't occur, which is why its prior probability is 0, not 1\over4. There aren't two days in ...
That depends on the probability that you will be given the opportunity to write a note. If that probability is 1/2 then it won't be rational on Wednes...
Yes, I got the maths wrong there (and deleted my post before you replied; apologies). Though I don't see why I should accept your claim that if "she r...
If heads and n = 100 then the probability of writing a note is 1/100 If tails and n = 100 then the probability of writing exactly one note is 1/100. S...
@"Pierre-Normand" These cannot all be true: 1. Credence "is a statistical term that expresses how much a person believes that a proposition is true" 2...
Not necessarily. Assume a probability of 1/2 each time. The probability of writing it if the coin landed heads is 1/2. The probability of writing it (...
Sleeping Beauty doesn't know that it hasn't occurred. She has amnesia. So after waking, and before new information is revealed, the prior probability ...
It makes no sense to say that when she wakes there is then a prior probability that she’s “asleep” of 1\over4 that is immediately ruled out. If some p...
So when is this alleged P(X) = 1/4 prior established if not before the experiment starts? It cannot be when she is asked her credence as you’ve said t...
Prior probabilities are established before the experiment starts, so there is no “current waking” prior because there is no “current waking” before th...
We’re talking about prior probabilities, i.e the probabilities as established before the experiment starts. The prior probability that step 1 will hap...
She’s being asked her credence that step 3 happens. Step 1 just isn’t two events with a prior probability of 1/4 each. It’s one event with a prior pro...
No they don’t. Your “A or B” isn’t two separate things but one thing with prior probability 1. C and D each have a prior probability of 1/2; C will ha...
I’m not asking about your shopping example. I’m asking about this example: 1. Sleeping Beauty is given amnesia and asked her credence that the coin wi...
In your experiment the prior probability P(HH) = 1/4 becomes P(HH) = 0 when she’s asked her credence. But there is no prior P(X) = 1/4 that becomes P(...
My claim is simply regarding what the word means. Credence "or degree of belief is a statistical term that expresses how much a person believes that a...
I consider a similar situation here. Halfer reasoning gives an answer of 4/7 and thirder 1/2. I think 4/7 is more reasonable. I’m less likely to wake ...
The prior P(Heads & Second Time) = 0 as established by the rules of the experiment. She will never be asked a second time if the coin lands heads. So ...
Pierre-Normand is saying that P(X) refers to the ratio of Xs to non-Xs in some given reference class. I'm saying that P(X) refers to the degree to whi...
There is a one-to-one correspondence between the set of H-interviews and the set of H-runs. H-interview iff H-run P(H-run) = 1/2 Therefore, P(H-interv...
OK, I understand your argument now, and it's what I said to you before: in your experiment the prior probability P(HH) = 1/4 is ruled out when woken; ...
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