Michael

have you been?

So I need some suggestions for my life. My friend who’s moved to Virginia says I should move to America but I’m thinking of going back to Cambodia as ...

thanks. I’m on my phone. It’s hard to do things properly.

Doesn’t even tag properly. Fuck it.

Yes. I’m irritable, just like @"Hanover".

Yes, because being a mod on here is the measure of a successful life. :sweat:

Me too. Just turned 30. Ugh.

She was talking to Benkei?

I don’t think any of these probability tables are relevant if you’re told what day it is. If you’re told it’s Monday then the probability is 1/2 that ...

You can download a copy of the software.

It isn't. There was an option to download all your posts as a .txt file, so there wouldn't be a need for this. Besides, when it was up discussions wer...

Yes, that's like the example I gave earlier regarding whether we should favour a many-worlds theory over a single-world theory. From what I've read it...

And I think the former is the proper way to talk about the probability that it was heads, not the latter. We can then distinguish between the case of ...

This is the problem I have with the self-indication assumption, and is why I brought up the question of a single-world theory vs a many-world theory. ...

Sure, but that's not how we'd actually consider the probabilities. We can try it right now. I'll flip a coin. If it's heads I'll tell you that it's he...

Yes?

In scenario one there are two awakenings for every tail thrown and one for every head thrown. It's a fair coin, and so the proportion of tail-awakenin...

If it's 1 then P(Heads|Awake) = 0.5 * 1 / 1 = 0.5. Then perhaps you could explain how it works with my variation where Beauty is woken on either Monda...

If it's 1 then P(Heads|Awake) = 0.5 * 1 / 1 = 0.5. Then perhaps you could explain how it works with my variation where Beauty is woken on either Monda...

If there's a 1/4 chance that I'm being asked on Tuesday then there's a 1/4 chance that if I'm Sleeping Beauty being interviewed right now then today i...

Sleeping Beauty is guaranteed to be asked, and she knows it. To make it (more) comparable I have to know that I’m guaranteed to be asked, but not know...

I’m saying that if it’s heads then only I’m asked and if it’s tails then I’m asked and 1,000 other people are asked. This is a better comparison than ...

This is where I’m guaranteed to be asked either way. In your example I’m not guaranteed to be asked, which is why it’s a false comparison.

No, it’s a half. Where’d you get 1/3?

But to address your question, it’s a false comparison. In this case the probability that you’re asked if heads is one in billions, whereas in Beauty’s...

That’s similar to the question I asked here.

You’re inventing a state that doesn’t exist in the experiment, and despite the rules of the experiment you’re asserting it to be equally probable. Als...

This is why I suggested the alternative experiment where we don't talk about days at all and just say that if it's heads then we'll wake her once (and...

Also relevant is the question I asked earlier: if we have two theories – one which posits a single world and one which posits multiple worlds – should...

The probability of the awakenings is dependent on the coin flip (1st awakening is 1 if heads, 0.5 if tails), whereas the probability that a coin flip ...

The probability tree on the Monty Hall Wikipedia page can be used to explain why I disagree about the Sleeping Beauty problem: /uploads/files/gj/wehbe...

It's 1/2 if you switch. I ran the experiments: Here's the result of 100,000 games where you don't re-guess. 1/3 games are winners Here's the result of...

I believe tim wood brought up McConnell in relation to your claims about freedom of speech being at threat by the left. I read it has him implying tha...

She has a license to off with your head.

So your argument is: P1. Anything which increases the chance that a foetus will be terminated is immoral P2. Casual sex increases the chance that a fo...

Having two opportunities to choose one door (i.e. change your selection) isn't the same as having one opportunity to choose two doors (i.e. select bot...

A related question: if we have two theories – one which posits a single world and one which posits multiple worlds – should our credence favour the th...

Are you suggesting that, in my amended case, being awake/asked shouldn't be treated as a conditional?

Then: P(Heads|Asked) = P(Heads) * P(Asked|Heads) / P(Asked) P(Heads|Asked) = 0.5 * 1 / 1 P(Heads|Asked) = 0.5

It changes P(Awake) to 1. Which means: P(Heads|Awake) = 0.5 * 1 / 1 = 0.5

Here's the result of 100,000 games where you don't re-guess. 1/3 games are winners Here's the result of 100,000 games where you re-guess. 1/2 games ar...

So we do my variation where there are no sleep days. The experiment is just; we ask her once if it's heads and twice if it's tails.

If you have to pick one of three doors then the probability of being right is 1/3. If you have to pick one of two doors then the probability of being ...

Why count heads on Tuesday? What if I were to change the experiment so that it ends on Tuesday if it's heads rather than on Wednesday? In the original...

So what is P(Awake)?

P(Heads|Awake) = P(Heads) * P(Awake|Heads) / P(Awake) If she applies this before the experiment then she knows that P(Heads|Awake) = 0.5 * 1 / 1 = 0.5...

I think it's clearer with this: P(Heads|Awake) = \frac{P(Heads ? Awake)}{P(Awake)} Our objective is to determine P(Heads|Awake), and so it's not neces...

You mean The Crown? I believe it's immune from criminal prosecution but not civil.

The Queen is immune from prosecution (and arrest). Regarding the Magna Carta, only 4 of the original 63 clauses still stand: 1. The English church sha...

Unless they plan to ensure that no Democrat is ever elected again, such a ruling would bite them in the ass eventually. McConnell understands this log...