I don't read it that way at all. A fact, Tatsache, is the Bestehen of a state of affairs or atomic fact. Bestehen is in O&R as "existence", but I don'...
Sorry, I'm not getting your experiment, or its equivalence to SB. One thing I'm generally uncertain about is how strongly to lean on "what day today i...
I'd like to make a modest proposal about post formatting, namely that we split our posts into three sections. 1. Interpretation of the sections we're ...
Here's the thing: it sure does look like the design of the experiment involves conditioning heads on ~Tuesday, so you get (1/4)/(1/2) = 1/2 for heads ...
So we're going? @"Posty McPostface" you should change the thread title! ((I have a week of vacation coming up, so good timing! My intention is just to...
Pfft. I was only using Gary Larson to support (!) to @"unenlightened"'s point. ((Need clones! Would love to be here in this thread more, but I'm still...
True. It's also true that "If its predictions are accurate, then logic is justified" sounds more like a definition than anything else, that it says th...
Are you quite clear what you want to argue here and what you don't? How would you feel about this same argument with the first premise replaced by its...
Probability is about expectations. Success should be measured not by what proportion of your predictions were accurate, but by what proportion of outc...
(a) No it isn't. From the OP: I personally think it's slightly cleaner to describe the experiment as immediately sending her home at the conclusion of...
This is straight-up brilliant. ((Hey @"frank" -- remember that thread about whether we do in some sense "talk" to the world, ask it questions and list...
Suppose we really were asking Beauty to guess the result of the coin toss, rather than give her credence. We'll do this with 100 Beauties and tally th...
Yeah that one was too easy. If I could have come up with a way for you not to know the difference between getting one box and getting two, I would hav...
Here are the rules: I will flip a coin. On heads I will give you a box with 1 red marble in it. On tails I'll give you a box with either 1 blue marble...
Which in Beauty's case is zilch, isn't it? I agree about your double-header example, but don't see the similarity to SB at all. Interviewing here clea...
Is that true? It really might be -- I'm not disagreeing -- but there's also a little waystation we get to stop at sometimes of knowing at least what k...
I had hoped I was suggesting an alternative approach and providing some motivation for it, why one might invest some time in pursuing such an alternat...
Or this whole approach is wrong, this is the sort of thing language takes in stride, and the only question is how well or poorly it's done. (All model...
Here's a story where Lewis's table seems to make sense: Beauty wonders to herself whether she's already been interviewed, and whether she'll be interv...
Yes, I think this is certainly the right approach, and the proviso is only that a word that does not belong, that has no use in a language-game, is a ...
In @"StreetlightX"'s sense thread, it occurred to me that we might look at the rules of language as permissives, or as enabling communication, rather ...
No. I'm not sure how to formalize this (@"fdrake" help!), but I think if we want to do this as a table, it will be n+1-dimensional, where n is the num...
Of course, and it goes without saying that I have oversimplified. ("One might say that oversimplification is the occupational hazard of philosophy, if...
That's a relief! Yes, I think it's an interesting move, and wanted to say that something similar happens with semantic distinctions that formally woul...
Yes. Here's the link again for anyone who missed it. I also recommend watching it. (It has nearly 5 million views, so don't feel guilty about giving h...
I'll take one more stab at this. I did it with marbles above, but here's the application. Which protocol to use is determined by the toss of a fair co...
I see the problem. Yes, I argued recently for "discounting", basically the model that Lewis presents. Now I think that's wrong. There is no discountin...
I'm just following the principal principle. If I can figure out what the objective chances are, so can Beauty, and she can set her credences according...
As far as that goes, reading Timothy Snyder's Black Earth can be a pretty strange experience. There's chapter after chapter of atrocities and no expla...
@"fdrake", @"Sam26" Perhaps I missed it, but one point that doesn't seem to come out clearly in your exchange is that language use includes non-lingui...
Thanks for posting this. I read all the links, and their links, and I'm still sorting through it. Something happened here, something we should probabl...
Just to clarify my position a little: According to the design of the experiment, there are two protocols: a single interview on heads; multiple interv...
No, I'm in the double halfer camp now. The post right above explains my current thinking. ((This is, I don't know, maybe the third time I've argued wi...
Then your issue is not with the immigration status of the perpetrator, but the victim. Illegal immigrants, in this scenario, would also fail to report...
I think I've finally got the right model now, and it's nuts. Two urns, one with a one red marble, and one with one blue marble. One blue marble. You t...
So Monday is independent of the coin toss but ¬Monday isn't? Aren't we just using ambiguous vocabulary here? Speaking of ambiguity, does when the coin...
You are both ignoring part of the problem. That's saying P(A | B) = P(A), and therefore A and B are independent events. Of course in one sense the coi...
Indeed, I think it means that the odds here are not truly 2:1 at all. I can't figure out how to make this into a normal wager of any kind. The closest...
Still another point: I have argued, as thirder, that there are three outcomes each of which has a 50% chance of occurring (the one heads interview and...
Here's another way to look at it. You could say it depends on what we take to be the event that must be predicted -- I've made that argument myself, a...
I keep saying Beauty can make a Dutch book, which is wrong of course and I'll quit it: the odds are coherent but they don't match the odds of the even...
If you toss a fair coin 100 times and throw one red marble into an urn on heads and two blues on tails, you'll end up with (roughly) 50 reds and 100 b...
This is the wrong model. This table Mon Tue H 1/2 T 1/4 1/4 is right, and here's why. Suppose you have a machine set up like this: there's a hopper fu...
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