fdrake

\begin{array} {|r|r|}\hline Flip & Day & Status \\ \hline Heads & Monday & Awake \\ \hline Heads & Tuesday & Asleep \\ \hline Tails & Monday & Awake \...

It wouldn't in this case I think. I'm going to commit now to writing 1 if my random number generator spits out 1, and 0 if it spits out 0. It spat out...

I am also confused now. God damnit. I fear I answered the wrong question.

:up: :up: :up: This works with Heads for Monday alone, Tails for Tuesday alone and no Wednesday. If the chance of the coin being heads depended upon t...

EDIT: MISINFORMATION Timeline: 1) Sleeping Beauty falls asleep on Sunday evening. 2) The experimenter tosses a coin. Call this random variable F. 2_1a...

I agree with the first bit. It's easy to be essentialised for one "bad look" in public. Or someone uncharitably shitting on you being taken as truth. ...

I've no idea why it's so commonplace. My intuition asks that if self loathing is commonplace, what makes so many cis het white men hate themselves? If...

I think this is approximately true. Though it's also hard to talk in lots of spaces without sounding like a right wing nut job. The reasons being - wh...

Yes. But IRL. Organising meat space meetups, nowadays, follows Twitter logic. When you do it through a meet ups server. It is scary. It might just be ...

Cheers pal. I'm super sensitised to this because one of my mates lost a lot of their acquaintances because they complained about a bad run of dates, i...

I agree! Where I'm coming from in this thread is that I've seen people be called incels online, or in person, when they're blokes frustrated with dati...

Not an expert, but I think the pick up artist people sprouted off into the incels. An incel being a pick up artist failure who can't even manipulate w...

Eh, probability modelling also includes assigning random variables. It has a lot to do with what random variables you put in play.

I could imagine using it for teaching probability modelling. Get students to analyse the problem. Then do it IRL with both sampling mechanisms. Should...

Same. Alright, I'm a bit less confused now. Thank you.

fdrake incel stan confirmed. Know the feel bro. "Political is personal" is also in your mind maaan. Yes. Necessary but not sufficient. I think "the em...

I agree with that. I think I wrote something similar, but with more words, in my reply here. I think that's the right generating mechanism for what's ...

I dunno. It would be a nice thought. Makes sense. I think it's so commonplace it's kinda silly to call it "being an incel" or whatever. It's just gett...

Same. I'm going through a period like myself actually. Well, I have quite a lot of friends but no romance going on. I get these errant thoughts of res...

As an aside, AFAIK Bayesian applied statistics uses priors not based on previously collected data all the time. I don't know if researchers care about...

@"Wayfarer" @"180 Proof" - Metzinger's lectures on "Minimal Phenomenal Selfhood" would make a great thread. It'd troll everyone!

I think this is a moral imperative, rather than an anthropological observation. It will tell us how we ought to behave, not why inceldom is becoming m...

I agree that it doesn't require an additional coin flip when you've interpreted it like you have. It's still a different interpretation than assigning...

Maybe my response here helps.

Another way of looking at it @"Pierre-Normand". If you wanna update on what you see, it's gotta be the realisation of a random variable. I set it up l...

I think I see what you mean. Would you agree that which envelope pair you're in is conditionally independent of the observation that your envelope is ...

Answering that gives you the origin of the paradox, right?

I don't believe it's rational to switch either. I'd believe it's rational to switch if we were in Case C.

Not what I intended, apologies for any offence caused. I whipped up some code myself to illustrate different scenarios in another thread.

You can conclude either strategy is optimal if you can vary the odds (Bayes or nonconstant probability) or the loss function (not expected value). Lik...

@"Michael" Simulation in R to demonstrate the different sampling mechanisms. cases=matrix(c(c(10,5),c(10,20)),nrow=2,ncol=2,byrow=FALSE) number_of_env...

Eh, we're just asserting the same thing over and over again at this point. I stop.

You don't know whether you're in Case A subcase 1 or case A subcase 2. Each of those has probability half. If you're in case A subcase 1, if you switc...

Not true, a different subjective assessment. Your uncertainty concerns the values (5,20), which is case C. Case A's uncertainty concerns the pairs (5,...

It isn't though. "The other envelope contains 20" in case A subcase 1 has probability 0. It just isn't an event in that case. The only events in that ...

Their awareness corresponds to a different fact. I don't think we're making any progress here. Do you understand the difference between case A and cas...

To break it down, this comes with the following steps: 1) The possible ball types are red, blue, white. 2) Two distinct types of ball are taken. 3) Th...

Exactly. You asked me to pick one, then treated that like drawing a ball from the bag.

That's case C! Drawing a new ball is the same as assigning a value to the other envelope. It's just not assigned at that step in the envelope set up. ...

That changes the sample space. The subcase in A5's sample space is (5,10) - IE an envelope contains 5 or 10, the subject just doesn't know that. The s...

And the distinction between Case C and Case A is my solution to it. Ambiguous phrasing suggests we're in Case C, whereas we're actually in case A or B...

It's a "wu" thing, the presumptions in your questions already define away how to dissolve the problem IMO. So I don't think it's wise of me to answer ...

Probability assignments are done with respect to a space of events. The event spaces in case A and C are different.

In general I think it's one of these cases where describing exactly what is random, what isn't, and what is conditioned upon is completely necessary. ...

Ultimately the disagreement you're having with @"Michael" there is about the representation of the agent's belief state. If the agent knew that one en...

Were they driving you batty?

As a general rule, simulating probabilities doesn't resolve disputes about which computations are appropriate. Every randomness has a generating mecha...

Endless meetings, meetings that continue on communication media afterwards, that get revisited the next social, then talked about at the next meeting.

One angle the author's maybe missed is that the broader conditions of a society which allows virtual child molestation are distinguished from societie...

I think this is true regardless of framing. P(the other envelope = my envelope/2) You can get that by counting the ways this happens. In the first cas...