Yes, that all makes sense. Indeed. So it's interesting that one can set up wagers for halfer, thirder or quarterer outcomes. But it seems to me that p...
If I understand you, you are presenting a quarterer scenario where the probabilities conditioned on being awake are: Mon Tue Heads 1/4 0 Tails 1/4 1/2...
P(Awake) = 1 is true when Beauty is awake in the experiment. So, under that condition, P(Heads|Awake) = P(Heads) = 1/3. (See argument below.) No. In y...
True, but the quarterer would agree (first awakening is 1 if heads, 1/3 if tails). However the probability of being Monday or Tuesday is also independ...
One thought here is that you could use a similar tree structure to argue for a quarter probability for heads. The first two branches represent the fir...
You're mistaken. (L6) P+(Heads) = 2/3 is a consequence of Lewis' halfer argument and it contradicts Elga's (E1) P+(Heads) = 1/2. As Lewis says: "I rej...
I am aware why it has the plus. As the paper says, "Let P+ be her credence function just after she's told that it's Monday". From Lewis' halfer argume...
Yes, to expand, P(Heads|Awake) = P(Heads and Awake) / P(Awake) = 1/4 / 3/4 = 1/3. What that equation is doing is redistributing probability from the s...
I'm saying that P(Heads|Monday) = 2/3 is a consequence of the halfer position. Do you agree? BTW, that is David Lewis' (L6) which contradicts Elga's (...
P(Heads|Awake) = (P(Heads) * P(Awake|Heads)) / P(Awake) = (1/2 * 1/2) / 3/4 = 1/3 There are four equally probable states in the experiment, three awak...
Yes. Your initially chosen door has 1/3 probability of containing the prize. The other two doors have a total of 2/3 probability. When the host shows ...
I'm saying that for a halfer, P(Heads|Monday) = 2/3. As a separate hypothetical, if Beauty is told that it is Monday during the experiment, then she w...
How so? Isn't the host telling you a specific door number (that doesn't contain the prize) information? The event of waking provides information about...
Beauty (as a thirder) knew at the time before the experiment that P(Heads) = 1/2. She also knew at the time before the experiment that P(Heads|Awake) ...
I'm not sure if you're just disputing the thirder position, or disputing my characterization of the thirder position for the 5/6 heads-weighted coin. ...
We shouldn't be indifferent between the two possible states for a weighted coin. So probabilities can't be distributed on that basis. But those two st...
Since there are seven awake states (out of twelve distinct states), I would be indifferent between them and so distribute probabilities as follows: Mo...
In the Monty Hall problem, the host gives you information that changes the probabilities that you assign to each door. That information is new to you....
No, 1/3. Both the halfer and the thirder positions are consistent. The difference stems from how the probabilities are distributed when conditioning o...
You're correct. But that's because of this: If a bet is instead placed every time Beauty awakes, then the £99 bet on tails is the best bet. Thirders a...
That's not correct. Beauty knows that she is awake and that is relevant information. P(Heads) = 1/2 P(Heads|Awake) = 1/3 Whether 1/2 or 1/3 is assigne...
I agree that it's not possible to see your hands and be mistaken. But that is not what the skeptic is saying. The skeptic is saying that even if you d...
As I see it, if (1)(b) is logically possible, then (*) is coherent. That it seems to the subject that he's in state (a) (and (b) seems impossible to h...
You may also be interested in Carroll and Sebens' derivation of the Born rule which Sean Carroll discusses on his blog. I think emergent branching asi...
I'm not sure that you and Apo are saying anything very different to MWI proponents such as David Wallace regarding a preferred basis, emergence and pr...
Superdeterminism is a one-world theory that apparently has about three supporters including 't Hooft. It basically says that if you have a beam splitt...
Zero-squared is still zero, experimental imprecisions aside. It doesn't have to be that way. You can reject actual infinities and consider limits such...
No. That's more a conceptual/philosophical issue that one brings to QM. And, as it happens, the Schrodinger equation is deterministic. For fun, you mi...
Yes I agree with the blog post - I think the basic argument boils down to both form and matter being indispensable categories that aren't reducible to...
True, but genuine cognitive shifts don't have to end there. As you know, Aristotle was well-versed in Plato's ideas and his hylomorphism retained univ...
I think it just comes down to one's fundamental philosophy, especially one's position on universals. It seems to me that you start with mind (a univer...
By "objective" here, do you mean "absolute"? On your view, numbers seem to have an existence independent of matter (and mind) which would qualify as P...
I would classify the Copenhagen Interpretation as anti-realist since it doesn't provide an explanation of what is going on, just probabilities. Bohr's...
I'm just referring to realism vs idealism here where we are looking for a coherent mechanism, not just an instrumental use of a formalism. Yes. I'm no...
It isn't. The results are just what one would expect from QM. It can if the assumption of counterfactual (value) definiteness is dropped. Which is wha...
Isn't that just a question of the logic of the language used? But whether or not a conscious observer is present (say, before life emerged on Earth), ...
All that is required is two physical systems that interact to produce information. Those physical systems need not have been constructed by anyone. He...
That usage of "observer" is conventional in special relativity and quantum mechanics. From Wikipedia: Physicists are always going to develop technical...
Yes, I think the world exists independently of mind (per Aristotelian realism rather than materialism). My initial comment in this thread was to point...
A measurement is a physical interaction between quantum systems. In the reference frame of the apparatus, a definite particle spin result has been rec...
Sure. Counterfactual definiteness means that if a measurement of a physical property is not in fact performed, it nonetheless has a definite value. Fo...
Just some comments on his opening paragraph... It's actually not a challenge at all. Kastrup's claims depend on a narrow definition of realism as coun...
I agree. Yes, if properties are understood in an absolute sense. But they can also be understood as implying a relational context. So to use your colo...
No, Platonic existence is abstract and immaterial. From Wikipedia: It wouldn't. On an Aristotelian view, all that is needed is the familiar distinctio...
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