Snakes Alive

If you run eight billion trials, giving equal values of X for each trial to each player, will the switcher and non-switcher converge roughly on the sa...

Will someone, or will they not, get more money on average as a result of choosing the switching strategy, as opposed to choosing the not-switching str...

How do you respond to the fact that your analysis is empirically wrong?

Holy shit, fine, so we're on the same page now. So respond to the initial points now that this pointless tangent is over.

This just isn't relevant. Assuming that one wants to make the most money on average, the puzzle remains, and that is clearly the point of the OP. You ...

No, the problem asks what you should do.

The prior simulations demonstrated this. If you don't accept that, literally just go out and play the game. Do trials where one person always switches...

If you play the game, switching on average will not afford you any gains. You predict it will. You are wrong.

This has nothing to do with whether an analysis is Bayesian or not. Your error is a basic conceptual one. This is reflected in the fact that you are e...

You can't use dollars in that way. You've agreed that Y must be defined in terms of X. X is fixed. Therefore, Y = 2X, or Y = X. It simply doesn't matt...

Exhaustive disjunctive possibilities are those that are mutually exclusive and jointly exhaustive, viz. those that form a partition over the space of ...

As a side note, the Socratic methodology of just asking, free of context, 'what is X?' is bad methodology. It will invariably lead you to silliness.

If you define Y in this way, then there are two possible states: you have drawn X (where B = 0), or you have drawn 2X (where B = 1). Now eliminate the...

No. The point is that it is not a possibility that the exhaustive disjunctive possibilities of what's contained in the other envelope are 5 and 20. Th...

Yeah, I realized this after writing my original post, but I don't have a good way to exposit the issue. I suspect that epistemic and metaphysical poss...

You can't use Y as a value defined independently of X and average across possibilities using that value.

And I responded to the response. WTF is with all the questions about how basic dialogue works?

No, my response to that question is as it was before: that one is syntactically derived from the other has nothing to do with epistemology. This was i...

So I agree, but that was my whole point. We're accustomed to think our experiences are "of" things, but there's no reason to think that's so. I take D...

Why don't I try just having this, so there can be no misperception as to what I'm replying to: That's how we are accustomed to think of it – but there...

But it's replying directly to what you said.

I think your posts are pretty good, but the OP is bad. I was just puzzled by why you thought my comments were irrelevant, since they have to do with t...

I try, but it seems like every other place is a Nazi/Communist recruitment center or a place to post pornography of cartoon characters or talk about h...

Do you know any better ones (not joking)?

OK (not much lost – these threads are of pretty poor quality, OPs are too vague / scatterbrained).

I don't know what you're talking about.

It's true that that's how we're accustomed to think of it by default. I don't think there's any possible way to answer transcendent questions about wh...

Right, and there was an analogous kind of self-awareness when the empiricists noticed that you could come to 'see' things as just rearranged as differ...

I think it's the case because it just happens, in the same way that we see distances, and so on. It's in the structure of experience, if you like. The...

Another way of putting this is that the strategy of switching, and of staying, are the exact same strategy. In each case, one simply picks one of the ...

Another angle: Suppose A is a switcher: he always picks one envelope to see, and then chooses the other to claim. Suppose B is a stayer: he always pic...

The way that you determine whether a move is worth taking is by calculating the average expected gain from making that move.

Yeah, we've covered all this already. The pro-switcher posts are saying the same thing over and over.

I don't think we 'come by' a sense of veridicality. It's just how we're hardwired to think about things. There can't ever be 'evidence' ultimately tha...

It can't be, since neither 5 nor 20 is half the other. Therefore this is not a possible sample space (as said above). Your error is switching the valu...

Modeling the sample space as where X changes values doesn't work. This is because, although you don't know which value X is, you do know that the meta...

Still not getting it.

How is it incoherent?

Ah, but that's exactly what we can't do. This was the original fallacy (back in my first post).

Doesn't matter, since the intersubjectivity can't establish anything and faces the same problem.

So?

Sure, but who doubts this? Not Descartes. And it implies nothing about our epistemologically 'starting with' veridicality, or having had any veridical...

Yeah, someone who thinks mental states are purely manifested in behavior doesn't understand what a mental state is in the ordinary use. This isn't an ...

We've already been over all this, I'm afraid. We would need a new way of looking at things to move forward, and this doesn't provide it.

Not so. Compare: it can seem like there is a witch, when there isn't. Must we have veridical witch-perceptions against which to 'compare' for this to ...

Also, it's worth noting that the idea that Descartes 'started' with appearances is false. Read the first meditation – he is led to their consideration...

Nothing about epistemology follows from that fact that 'seem' statements are syntactically more complex than statements not containing 'seem.' That fr...

Nope. If you were right, the expected return for any number of plays, 1 or a million, should always be 1.25 the amount drawn. Number of plays is irrel...

I have tried to clarify why this is, but apparently it hasn't worked. But I don't have another method of expositing it. I expect that some way of maki...

So am I understand this as having no epistemological consequences? In what sense, then, is it a response to Descartes? I'm not sure what 'conceptual p...