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Ukraine Crisis

Manuel January 25, 2022 at 03:28 76975 views 18084 comments
The situation in Ukraine is becoming more dire by the minute. NATO is implying Russia is planning to invade Ukraine, whereas Russia denies this. Russia claims it will not allow Ukraine to enter NATO, as this would effectively put a hostile military alliance - NATO - right at the borders of Russia.

There's also political maneuvering going around, with the US never wanting a lack of enemies - soon after the disaster in Afghanistan. And Putin is wanting to shift attention away from pretty bad conditions in Russia do to the COVID pandemic and rising prices.

The situation is quite dire and could escalate into something very, very dangerous.

Here are a few links for those interested:

NATO sends reinforcements to Eastern Europe amid Russia tensions
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/24/nato-sends-reinforcements-to-eastern-europe-amid-russian-anger

Russian naval exercises off Ireland's coast 'not welcome,' says Foreign Minister
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/24/europe/russia-naval-exercise-ireland-intl/index.html

Pentagon reveals number of US troops on higher alert over Ukraine
https://www.rt.com/russia/547231-pentagon-troops-europe-ukraine/

Rising costs of Ukraine gamble could force Russia’s hand
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/24/rising-costs-of-ukraine-gamble-could-force-russias-hand

Let's hope things don't escalate too much more. Welcome 2022...

Comments (18084)

Isaac May 11, 2022 at 16:02 #693831
Quoting Olivier5
I was pointing at the war in Ukraine as proof that Russia can't be trusted to be a good neighbour, thus that Finland and Sweden had good reasons to join NATO.


Yes, and I was pointing out that being a bad neighbour to Ukraine is not sufficient ground for such action. Invading Ukraine does not alone mean they'll invade everywhere. Just as the US invading Iraq doesn't mean they'll invade everywhere. Countries have strategic reasons for, and strategic obstacles to, invading places. The balance of reasons and obstacles is what motivates a decision. Their invasions here are being used as an example of another country frequently invading places but one which no European countries consider a threat - demonstrating the mere willingness to invade is not sufficient ground for everyone to consider them a threat. That you have some kind of allergic reaction to mentions of the US is not my problem.
RogueAI May 11, 2022 at 16:03 #693832
https://samf.substack.com/p/a-victory-parade-without-victories?r=9bgl3&s=r
Isaac May 11, 2022 at 16:11 #693833
Quoting Punshhh
“Like the infiltrators they sent into Donbas prior to the special military operation in 2014.”
If Finland were in NATO this would be less likely to happen in Finland.


So Finland is joining NATO because something which no-one is even sure happened might happen to them and somehow NATO can stop it?

Quoting Punshhh
I doubt at the moment that Finland is under threat from a Russian invasion in the current circumstances. But that is not necessarily why they want to join NATO.


I don't think it's why they want to join NATO either, I'm arguing against that position. I suspect they want to join NATO because it's newfound status as 'Good Guy' makes it politically expedient ally.

Isaac May 11, 2022 at 16:28 #693843
Quoting Christoffer
These are not collateral damage, these are intentional acts by the Russian troops and not at all in isolated cases.


It might be important for your evangelical condemnation, but I doubt the families of the 22,000 dead are much consoled by some apologist's theorising that they didn't mean to.

George Friedman - Stratfor:
US does not seek to “defeat” Serbia, Iran or Iraq, but they need to create chaos there, to prevent them from getting too strong.


Your sycophancy is not an argument.

Quoting Christoffer
It's you people who argue with numbers comparing 20 years of a multinational conflict with three months of Russian troops in a small number of cities and villages that's systemic in nature. It's you who require a number to value the atrocities.


No. The US has raped and executed civilians. So has Russia. You're drawing a distinction between the two on the grounds of the numbers. Russia, you say, has done it more. Unless you're arguing that the US soldiers accidentally raped the victims in Columbia https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/07/us-army-colombia-rapes-investigation

Quoting Christoffer
Seeking security is about never letting it happen in the first place.


The intention isn't in question. The solution is. Neutrality can be a defence against attack as well as a risk.

Quoting Christoffer
You ignoring the blatant evidence of how the Russian military actually acts is not sufficient or logical to conclude it not be just as reckless in invading Finland or Sweden.


No one's ignoring the brutality of the Russian attack, it's just that the brutality alone in Ukraine isn't evidence that it will do the same to every neighbouring country, nor that joining NATO will prevent it.

Quoting Christoffer
Joining Nato would deter them from doing so since it's an attack that becomes an existential threat to them.


Except it literally the one thing that has a credible threat of attack premised on it.

Quoting Christoffer
Invading before that would however be exactly like Ukraine as there's no guarantee for us to get help from other nations. Therefore we seek security.


Right. So the decision is based on whether declaring an intention to join NATO increases that risk in the intervening time, or increases the scale of the threat if Russia feel backed into a corner.
Isaac May 11, 2022 at 16:41 #693847
Quoting Olivier5
This is a matter of life and death, probably not the best topic for some uninformed, lazy rambling by a non-specialist...


Yes, perhaps you should call it a day.

Quoting Olivier5
...like Chomsky


Oh, I see. Amateur. Your qualifications are?
Christoffer May 11, 2022 at 16:53 #693849
Quoting Isaac
It might be important for your evangelical condemnation, but I doubt the families of the 22,000 dead are much consoled by some apologist's theorising that they didn't mean to.


That is not a counter-argument. I could say the same to you, you ignore what Russia has done in Ukraine and shift focus away from it instead. This is like you saying a construction worker who mismanaged and fucked up his responsibilities which resulted in a building collapsing and killing innocents is the same as that construction worker intentionally going into the building, raping, torturing, and executing those civilians for no reason. If you can't spot the differences between the two then you're just plain stupid.

Quoting Isaac
Your sycophancy is not an argument.


Your whataboutism isn't either.

Quoting Isaac
You're drawing a distinction between the two on the grounds of the numbers.


No, by the systematic nature of it.

Quoting Isaac
The intention isn't in question. The solution is. Neutrality can be a defence against attack as well as a risk.


Oh, why didn't you tell that to the Ukrainians, maybe that would have kept Russia from invading? :shade:
You don't know what the fuck you're talking about when you speak about Finland and Sweden. Your argument is fucking naive.

Quoting Isaac
No one's ignoring the brutality of the Russian attack, it's just that the brutality alone in Ukraine isn't evidence that it will do the same to every neighbouring country, nor that joining NATO will prevent it.


Why wouldn't they? It's systematic, that's why. And joining Nato means Russia won't dare attack, why can't you fucking understand how Nato works for once in this thread? Why do we have to explain this to you over and over? The key here is that you just ignore all of that because it doesn't fit your worldview. Russia won't attack a Nato member because that would mean annihilation of Russia, period.

Quoting Isaac
Except it literally the one thing that has a credible threat of attack premised on it.


No, that's in your head. I don't understand how you conclude something like this when the reality is that Russia won't dare attack a Nato member. Stop making shit up to fit your narrative it's embarrassing to witness.

Quoting Isaac
Right. So the decision is based on whether declaring an intention to join NATO increases that risk in the intervening time, or increases the scale of the threat if Russia feel backed into a corner.


Russia can feel whatever the fuck they want. Nato is the only thing that creates an existential threat to them. They can have a fantasy of Nato invading them but that won't happen because it's a fucking defensive alliance with a democratic function for action. The US could say they want to attack Russia but 29 other nations can vote them down. What Russia delusionally believe is fucking irrelevant, the fact is that because Nato is too powerful for Russia to face, they cannot dare attack Sweden and Finland if we join... that is the fucking point. Sick and tired of you making shit up and believing you understand the situation of Finland and Sweden. You have some utopian ideal of neutrality keeping the Russian bear away, but Russia showed the world just who they are when they invaded Ukraine so we don't give a fuck about Russia, we want to be secure from their brutality and toxic stupidity. Whatever fantasy you think is an alternative, we don't have any alternatives for security, fucking understand already.




Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 16:53 #693850
Quoting Isaac
Yes, and I was pointing out that being a bad neighbour to Ukraine is not sufficient ground for such action. Invading Ukraine does not alone mean they'll invade everywhere.


It means that the Russians could potentially try and invade (or try to otherwise damage militarily) some of their other neighbours. They've just unleashed some pretty extreme brutality onto Ukraine so they can do it to others. It's not beyond them.
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 16:56 #693852
Quoting Isaac
Your qualifications are?


For one, I can understand the need of other human beings for a sense of security.
Isaac May 11, 2022 at 17:06 #693857
Quoting Christoffer
This is like you saying a construction worker who mismanaged and fucked up his responsibilities which resulted in a building collapsing and killing innocents is the same as that construction worker intentionally going into the building, raping, torturing, and executing those civilians for no reason.


So you are making the argument that those women were accidentally raped in Columbia? I didn't think your bootlicking would really descend that disgustingly low, but apparently I was wrong.

Quoting Christoffer
You're drawing a distinction between the two on the grounds of the numbers. — Isaac


No, by the systematic nature of it.


You've given no account of anything systematic other than some unspecified number of alleged rapes.

Quoting Christoffer
why can't you fucking understand how Nato works for once in this thread? Why do we have to explain this to you over and over?


Do you even have a concept of disagreement? Is everything either agreeing or misunderstanding?

Quoting Christoffer
Except it literally the one thing that has a credible threat of attack premised on it. — Isaac


No, that's in your head.


No, @ssu's head. It was his post I got it from.

Isaac May 11, 2022 at 17:11 #693859
Quoting Olivier5
It means that the Russians could potentially try and invade (or try to otherwise damage militarily) some of their other neighbours. They've just did it to Ukraine so they can do it to others. It's not beyond them.


On the same grounds. The US invaded a foreign nation hundreds of miles away in Iraq, so they can do it to others.

So do you need security against America? Or is it, just possibly, more than mere willingness to invade which determines which country is a security risk to whom?
RogueAI May 11, 2022 at 17:20 #693861
Good recap of what's going on in Donbas.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/10/russia-s-long-shot-in-the-donbas
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 17:24 #693865
Quoting Isaac
The US invaded a foreign nation hundreds of miles away in Iraq, so they can do it to others.

So do you need security against America? Or is it, just possibly, more than mere willingness to invade which determines which country is a security risk to whom?


Yes you do need security against America when you are in their crosshair. And even more so if America becomes a ruthless, immoral dictatorship. Fascist for real, I mean, like when people like Chomsky are put in concentration camps. Every democracy on earth would then be in their crosshair so that would be an unmitigated disaster.
Isaac May 11, 2022 at 17:27 #693868
Quoting Olivier5
Yes you do need security against America when you are in their crosseye.


Right. So the question is not whether Russia has invaded other countries, it's whether Finland are in their 'crosseye'. No one has, as yet, given the slightest evidence that they are.
Christoffer May 11, 2022 at 17:30 #693870
Quoting Isaac
So you are making the argument that those women were accidentally raped in Columbia? I didn't think your bootlicking would really descend that disgustingly low, but apparently I was wrong.


I didn't think your inability to understand what the fuck is being said could be so bad. Instead, you keep going with the loaded question fallacies just because you can't grasp the differences I presented.

Quoting Isaac
You've given no account of anything systematic other than some unspecified number of alleged rapes.


By the reports of the investigators in Ukraine. You want to keep play the numbers game instead of actually listening to the conclusions of the investigations. You can find them yourself if you cared to actually do any type of research that doesn't confirm your already existing opinions.

Quoting Isaac
Do you even have a concept of disagreement? Is everything either agreeing or misunderstanding?


Facts about how Nato works don't care about your fucking opinion of how it works. You live in a fantasy that supports your opinion and make shit up trying to argue for it. It's hollow.

Quoting Isaac
No, ssu's head. It was his post I got it from.


SSU said that joining Nato would lead to Russia attacking Finland? Really, @ssu?

Isaac May 11, 2022 at 17:33 #693872
Quoting Christoffer
SSU said that joining Nato would lead to Russia attacking Finland? Really, ssu?


It's here

Quoting ssu
Russia has constantly threatened Finland and Sweden with "serious military and political repercussions" if they join NATO. For years now, actually.


Christoffer May 11, 2022 at 17:37 #693875
Quoting Isaac
It's here

Russia has constantly threatened Finland and Sweden with "serious military and political repercussions" if they join NATO. For years now, actually.


What Russia says, threatens, and put in propaganda is not the same as what they actually do. Just like they said they wouldn't invade Ukraine for months before actually invading Ukraine. How can you be this fucking stupid to not see what @ssu meant with that statement?

They threaten us because they think we will bend to their will, because that is what they want us to do. If you think they will attack us when we are Nato members you are seriously delusional.
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 17:50 #693879
Quoting Isaac
So the question is not whether Russia has invaded other countries, it's whether Finland are in their 'crosseye'. No one has, as yet, given the slightest evidence that they are.


The Russians have flown four military jets in Swedish air space early March. Two of those were reportedly equipped with nuclear weapons, although this was not confirmed officially. A Russian army helicopter violated Finland's airspace today.

Isaac May 11, 2022 at 17:55 #693882
Quoting Olivier5
The Russians have flown four military jets in Swedish air space early March. Two of those were reportedly equipped with nuclear weapons, although this was not confirmed officially. A Russian army helicopter violated Finland's airspace today.


Uh Oh. War in South America on the horizon...

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-says-us-military-plane-violated-its-airspace-2021-07-23/
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 18:07 #693891
Reply to Isaac That's just whataboutism. Nothing to see with Finland's and Sweden's reasons to fear Russian. Either you take the issue seriously, or you don't.
Benkei May 11, 2022 at 18:31 #693904
Reply to Olivier5 FYI, Russia and the US continually breach air space (usually very nearly and then turn away at the last moment) to test scrambling time of fighter jets, scouting and radar effectivity. This is really not a thing. Dutch air space gets breached by Russia every month or so.

It happened 350 times in 2020 and 290 times in 2021 with respect to Russians testing air space alertness of NATO members, including the US but mostly the Baltic states.
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 18:44 #693908
Quoting Benkei
It happened 350 times in 2020 and 290 times in 2021 with respect to Russians testing air space alertness of NATO members, including the US but mostly the Baltic states.


Very few intercepted flights entered allied airspace, though. The Swedes took the March 2 case very seriously. It was not just one plane and they entered over several kilometres.

Sweden and Finland have objective reasons to fear Russia. It'd be nice if posters wouldn't deny the glaringly obvious needs of fellow human beings.
jorndoe May 11, 2022 at 18:48 #693912
Quoting thought experiment
Suppose NATO was to close up


Here's one hypothetical scenario:
Putin's Russia would roll over Ukraine at some point (after much destruction); install puppets (Kremlin); bring mercs and hunt Ukrainian resistance mercilessly (they'd now be "terrorists" especially in all Russian media); reinforce Moldovian efforts westward.
At some point (with the aid of infiltrators and propaganda), threaten/scare/bully other border nations; depending on feasibility (plausibility of propaganda/excuses), look into making them proxies, perhaps pick relatively smaller nations.
"? I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons // First we take [Ukraine], then we take Berlin ?" ;)

Isaac May 11, 2022 at 18:53 #693914
Quoting Olivier5
That's just whataboutism. Nothing to see with Finland's and Sweden's reasons to fear Russian. Either you take the issue seriously, or you don't.


I'm trying to extract the reason why Finland and Sweden fear attack by Russia. So far I've been given...

Russia attacked another county (no good, since the US have done that too and they don't fear attack by them).

Russia will attack them if they're not in NATO (Russia have literally said the exact opposite).

Russia invaded their airspace (as @Benkei has said, this happens all the time)

Russia have raped, executed and tortured their victims (so have the US, but no one's fearing attack by them)

Quoting Olivier5
Sweden and Finland have objective reasons to fear Russia. It'd be nice if posters wouldn't deny the glaringly obvious needs of fellow human beings.


It's nothing to do with denying anything. I haven't (yet) denied that they have objective reasons to fear Russia. Its just that you haven't yet supplied any such reason that wouldn't also apply to America, so there's clearly some factor you're still missing.


Oh, and if you can't tell the difference between what's 'glaringly obvious' to you and what's glaringly obvious to anyone, then what you're after is a blog. This is a discussion platform.
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 19:01 #693917
So, Mario Draghi, Italian prime minister, is in Washington. The US media has not (yet?) reported it but he is saying something relevant to the present discussion. Translated from Sky.it:


Draghi: "An imposed peace would be a disaster. US and Russia should sit at a table"
May 11, 2022 - 18:03

The premier, after meeting with Joe Biden at the White House, met with reporters at a press conference in Washington: "You have to ask how to build peace," he said.

"The right peace will be the one Ukraine wants, not the one imposed by allies or others." said Prime Minister Mario Draghi. "I thank the U.S. president and the entire administration for the welcome, the meeting went very well. He thanked Italy for being a strong partner and a credible ally. We agree that we need to continue to support Ukraine, put pressure on Russia but also that we need to ask how to build peace. The negotiating path is difficult."

"Russia is no longer Goliath, it is not invincible. The war has changed its face, initially it was a war in which it was thought there was a Goliath and a David, essentially a desperate defense that also seemed to fail, but today the landscape has completely turned upside down."

The Prime Minister addressed various issues [in the press conference], from the food and energy crises caused by the conflict to inflation eroding the purchasing power of the weaker sections of the population.
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 19:05 #693920
Quoting Isaac
It's nothing to do with denying anything. I haven't (yet) denied that they have objective reasons to fear Russia. Its just that you haven't yet supplied any reason that wouldn't also apply to America, so there's clearly some factor you're still missing.


Which factor, pray tell?
Isaac May 11, 2022 at 19:09 #693923
Quoting Olivier5
Which factor, pray tell?


I don't know. You're the one claiming it's so obvious. I think it's just politically expedient because Russia are the bad guys and NATO are the good guys. You score votes if you snub the bad guys and join the good guys.

You (and @Christoffer and @ssu) are the ones saying that they have this glaringly obvious reason, but nothing you're providing makes sense because it all applies to America too.
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 19:15 #693927
Reply to Isaac Does being a brutal dictatorship apply to America too?
jorndoe May 11, 2022 at 19:34 #693940
A bit peripheral here...

Quoting Isaac
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-says-us-military-plane-violated-its-airspace-2021-07-23/


Two of my colleagues are Venezuelan; they fled with some of their family members.
Apparently, the situation there is catastrophic. :sad: (to the point that we're not asking one of them about it, we'll just hail The Beatles, their favorite band)
At the moment, all bets are off when it comes to Venezuela.

Isaac May 11, 2022 at 19:39 #693946
Quoting Olivier5
Does being a brutal dictatorship apply to America too?


Brutal does. America is without doubt responsible for more death and immiseration than any other nation.

As for dictatorship, no, but America has been at war for almost the entirety of the last 200 years, so it's hard to see how being a democracy is the deciding factor in which country one is most likely to be invaded by.
Isaac May 11, 2022 at 19:43 #693947
Reply to jorndoe

Yeah, America's history in South America is a disgrace. Quite something else to have first (or second) hand experience though.

Interesting to see what happens in Brazil if Lula comes to power.
jorndoe May 11, 2022 at 19:51 #693954
Quoting Isaac
Yeah, America's history in South America is a disgrace. Quite something else to have first (or second) hand experience though.


Sure, but not in this case (Venezuela).

Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 19:52 #693956
Reply to Isaac Personally, I'm quite happy that the US fought in WW2, and in WW1. But that's just me. If you see the US as equally dangerous to your own security as Russia, then you might indeed find support for NATO somewhat puzzling. The answer to that puzzle is once again simple: not all Finns and not all Swedes share your assessment of the respective threats posed to them by Russia and the US. Some of them might see the US as a more benevolent security partner (at least toward them) than Russia.
Punshhh May 11, 2022 at 19:57 #693959
Reply to Isaac
So Finland is joining NATO because something which no-one is even sure happened might happen to them and somehow NATO can stop it?
Yes, it is a defensive alliance. What it is defending against is all possible risks, not actual current risks.
In reality there will be intelligence which onlookers are not aware of as to what these risks are


I don't think it's why they want to join NATO either, I'm arguing against that position. I suspect they want to join NATO because it's newfound status as 'Good Guy' makes it politically expedient ally.
There’s always political expediency going on in a country. That is not the precursor to this development.

Putin’s explicit nuclear threat against NATO is justification/reason enough for all current developments regarding NATO.
Manuel May 11, 2022 at 20:25 #693973
I mean, I think the paradox he points out makes sense. The bit about him going a bit senile or losing steam has been going on for well over ten years.

Either agree with him or disagree with him, that's fine. But I don't think attributing this to his brain power - or alleged lack thereof, is a good critique.

The paradox he points out is a good one. The western media (by and large, with exceptions) are simultaneously claiming that Russia is a ferocious enemy that will not stop at Ukraine, and then also saying how embarrassing the Russian army is. Those are contradictory views.

If you say that it is not, because now there is a "window of opportunity" to join NATO, and that this solves such paradoxes, OK. I think that's a post-hoc rationalization, because, regardless of how Russia did (and is doing) in Ukraine, the issue would have come up.

But, some of you think that there is no double speak and that this makes sense, well then OK. No point in me continuing to argue about something we won't be able to solve by going back on forth on the same points.
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 20:40 #693978
Quoting Manuel
The western media (by and large, with exceptions) are simultaneously claiming that Russia is a ferocious enemy that will not stop at Ukraine, and then also saying how embarrassing the Russian army is. Those are contradictory views.


Since when are western media supposed to be coherent? And what does that have to see with the Finns and their security? Does CNN make policy prescriptions to Finns now?
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 20:55 #693988
User image
Vladimir Kazanevsky, Ukraine
Olivier5 May 11, 2022 at 21:11 #694001
Quoting Olivier5
Draghi:
We agree that we need to continue to support Ukraine, put pressure on Russia but also that we need to ask how to build peace. The negotiating path is difficult."

"Russia is no longer Goliath


Now Macron is ringing a similar bell:

"While suggesting the creation of a "European political community" likely to create closer bonds between the European Union (EU) the countries that aspire to join it, starting with Ukraine, the French president continues to plead, in the long term, for a "negotiated peace" with Moscow. This would follow a ceasefire that is still unattainable at this stage, with fighting still raging in the Donbas. For him, despite the delivery of heavy weapons to Kyiv, there is no question of allowing the conflict to drag on with the idea of weakening Russia. The priority remains, if possible, to re-establish Ukraine within its historical borders, or at least within those of before February 24, the date of the Russian invasion.

Mr. Macron considers that it is up to the Ukrainians to determine their war aims and the conditions for a possible resumption of negotiations with Moscow, currently at an impasse. It is not up to their European or American allies. "It is solely up to Ukraine to define the conditions for negotiations with Russia," explained the head of state from Strasbourg. The idea, as seen from France, is to guarantee Ukrainian security, while restoring, in the longer term, that of the entire European continent. "Our responsibility is to achieve a ceasefire without the conflict spreading to the rest of Europe. (...) But tomorrow we will have to build peace. Let's never forget it," he said. "
(Le Monde)

More on the current French take from Le Monde in English (recently launched):

US gets caught up in the euphoria of a proxy war against Russia
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/05/09/us-caught-up-in-the-euphoria-of-a-proxy-war-against-russia_5982921_4.html
Merkwurdichliebe May 11, 2022 at 21:34 #694004
Quoting Olivier5
Nietzsche was no idiot and he is basically at the root of Nazism.


Wrong! Nietzsche's philosophy is not at the root of nazism. You probably think that because of how his racist cunt of a sister intentionally misinterpreted his works after he died. His philosophy actually represents a cry of the individual against the collective...and nazism is fundamentally collectivist. If any philosopher can be credited with inspiring the nazi ideology, it is Hegel.
frank May 11, 2022 at 21:43 #694007
Reply to Merkwurdichliebe
Wrong! Richard Dawkins had a time machine and he did it. Because he's an asshole!
Apollodorus May 11, 2022 at 21:58 #694011
Quoting Punshhh
Putin’s explicit nuclear threat against NATO is justification/reason enough for all current developments regarding NATO.


“Explicit nuclear threat against NATO”?

To my knowledge, he said:

“If someone intends to intervene in the ongoing events from the outside and create strategic threats for Russia that are unacceptable to us, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast.”

Putin threatens ‘lightning-fast’ strikes on anyone that intervenes in Ukraine war – American Military News

Substitute “America” for “Russia” in that statement and what you get is a pretty standard warning rather than an “explicit threat”. It says “do something that is unacceptable to us and you’ll pay for it”.

How else would you have formulated it?

IMO it all depends on how you define (a) “intervene”, (b) “unacceptable”, and (c) “retaliatory strikes”.

Also, is NATO’s jihad on Russia due to Russia’s “explicit nuclear threat” or due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine? As far as I am aware NATO’s jihad had already started before the alleged “threat”.

Quoting Merkwurdichliebe
His philosophy actually.represents a cry of the individual against the collective...


Good point. Hard to see Nietzsche as an advocate of mass culture. We mustn't forget that Nazism was a culture of the masses, similar to Socialism, hence the name (National Socialism):

Socialism itself can hope to exist only for brief periods here and there, and then only through the exercise of the extremest terrorism. For this reason it is secretly preparing itself for rule through fear and is driving the word “justice” into the heads of the half-educated masses like a nail so as to rob them of their reason… and to create in them a good conscience for the evil game they are to play.


? Nietzsche, Human, All Too Human

Incidentally, I'm not sure he would have agreed with NATOISM either.

Isaac May 11, 2022 at 22:01 #694014
Quoting Punshhh
What it is defending against is all possible risks


Clearly not. One possible risk is that its expansion decreases global security. It's not defending against that risk, is it?

Quoting Punshhh
Putin’s explicit nuclear threat against NATO


Wait, so now Russia is a threat to NATO? A minute ago Russia wouldn't dare strike against NATO. That's why Sweden and Finland were joining. If Russia are s threat to NATO, Sweden and Finland would be better off independent.
neomac May 11, 2022 at 23:26 #694040
Quoting Apollodorus
Dude, as with the rest of your incoherent rant, there is no logic whatsoever to your question. Of course I don't find Zelensky credible! He's a professional actor and comedian, isn't he? If YOU find him credible, it doesn't mean that everyone else must find him credible! :grin:


My incoherent rant?! If I find Zelensky credible but you don’t, and Zelensky has never claimed that “Crimea belongs to Russia”, once more, why on earth did you bring him up in support of your claim that “Crimea belongs to Russia”?! Where or earth is the logic and coherence in that?!

Quoting Apollodorus
How President Zelensky’s approval ratings have surged - The New Statesman
I know you're gonna say that the Statesman is owned by Putin or the KGB, but I think you can spare yourself the trouble because no one is going to believe that, maybe not even yourself.


So you make not only strawman arguments but also preventive strawman arguments, now?!
And why on earth would I even need to question your article whose subtitle is: More than 90 per cent of Ukrainians approve of their leader, compared with just 31 per cent before the Russian invasion?! How on earth is that evidence supporting your questioning Zelensky’s credibility?!

Quoting Apollodorus
Plus, he has repeatedly made statements that turned out to be contrary to fact. You have yourself admitted that there is a propaganda and info war going on, so why should I blindly believe what Zelensky says? Moreover, even if he isn't credible, he still reportedly said he is "willing to negotiate with Russia”. Besides, my statement referred to the opinion of Western analysts who interpreted Zelensky's comments as indicating that he is prepared to negotiate on the status of Crimea, and possibly on Donbas.


“Plus”, “moreover”, “besides” what?! How on earth is the willingness to negotiate with Russia on the status of Crimea by Zelensky, even if confirmed by Western analysts, and despite the fact that you don’t find Zelensky credible anyways, supposed to support your claim that Crimea belongs to Russia as you argued based on your pre-conceived historical/ideological notions?!

Quoting Apollodorus
In any case, if even Zelensky says that a compromise is possible, this shows that he thinks Russia may have a legitimate claim, otherwise why compromise?


I already answered that question: Making territorial concessions to Russia, doesn’t necessarily validate the pre-conception that those territories belong to Russia, it could just grant a legal status to an illegal status quo for the sake of ending a horrible war.
In other words, Russian demands could just be seen as a case of illegitimate political blackmailing that forces Ukrainian authorities to embrace the realpolitik of a gloomy yet necessary solution. Indeed if someone is forced to compromise on a ransom with kidnappers or cybercriminals or terrorists, does that imply that kidnappers, cybercriminals and terrorists have legitimate claims?! Hell no!

Quoting Apollodorus
The fact is that if two countries claim that a certain territory belongs to them, they can't both be right. Russia certainly seems to have more of a legitimate claim on Crimea than Ukraine.


It “certainly seems” to whom?! Considering that there are 2 Russian-Ukrainian treaties where Russia acknowledged Ukrainian territorial integrity (and Crimea is considered integral part of Ukraine by Ukrainian constitution), and there is a UN resolution against the Russian annexation of Crimea, it “certainly seems” to me that Russia does NOT have more of a legitimate claim on Crimea than Ukraine.

Quoting Apollodorus
Unfortunately, you refuse to even contemplate Crimean independence and blindly believe your own CIA-NATO propaganda according to which Crimea MUST belong to Ukraine, Tibet MUST belong to China, Cyprus MUST belong to Turkey, etc.


By “Crimean independence” do you mean as a sovereign state separated from both Ukraine and Russia? Why on earth would I refuse to contemplate this possibility?! I didn’t say anything that states or implies or suggests that. In turn, would you contemplate the possibility to make Crimea a neutral state independent from Ukraine and Russia?
Besides are the 2 treaties about the Ukrainian territorial integrity that Russia and Ukraine signed CIA-NATO propaganda?! Are you crazy?!

Quoting Apollodorus
And, of course, if Ukraine has a right to be independent from the Soviet Union, Crimea also has a right to be independent from Ukraine. You seem to have incomprehensibly (or conveniently) forgotten this, just as you "forgot" that Crimea was never Ukrainian! :grin:


On the contrary, you seem to have incomprehensibly (or conveniently) forgotten I explicitly questioned such claims of yours a while ago: [i]“Unfortunately educated people can also see that “ownership”, as a juridical notion, presupposes an undisputed judicial authority ruling over those territories to assess ownership claims, while if the judicial authority ruling over those territories is disputed for ideological and/or geopolitical reasons, then… they are disputed for ideological and/or geopolitical reasons, so Crimea belongs to Ukraine or Russia depending on which competing party one sides with, and each competing party could accuse the other of violating the “rightful ownership” over their territory. And concerning the judicial dispute relevant in this war, take into account that there are 2 treaties between Russia and Ukraine (not “alleged” and arguably irrelevant promises made under the table) where Russia acknowledged the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine prior to the annexation of Crimea:
Belovezh Accords (1991) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belovezh_Accords
Budapest Memorandum (1994) https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Ukraine._Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances"[/i]


Quoting Apollodorus
How do you know America/NATO "didn’t play any role in the declaration of independence of Ukraine"? Where you there or something? America/NATO could perfectly well have encouraged that. It certainly encouraged NATO membership. And to become a member, a country needs to be independent. Very simple and easy to understand IMO.


I didn’t claim I know, on the contrary I asked you for your confirmation (“since America/NATO didn’t play any role in the declaration of independence of Ukraine and Crimea from Russia, at the end of the Soviet Union, right?). So do you have any evidence that they had a role? Was this role relevant? If so, how come they had this role and, despite that, Russia acknowledged with 2 treaties Ukrainian (Crimean included) territorial independence from Russia? Did they have this role only Ukraine or also on all other independence referendum in ex-Soviet Union states? Do you even have evidences of such any encouragement from CIA-NATO to independence from Russia to compare with the “encouraged NATO membership” you are talking about?
In other words, until you prove me wrong about the legitimacy of Ukrainian/Crimean independence referendum results, raising self-serving vague doubts against their legitimacy despite they weren’t officially questioned by the involved parties in the first place, just because I wasn’t there or something, far from being rationally compelling, “certainly seems” a biased conspiracy speculation that I would leave to pro-Russian trolls. And you aren’t one, right?

Quoting Apollodorus
If you can't decide which countries should belong to whom, then on what basis do you think you can decide on Crimea?


On one side, I never questioned that ordinary Western citizens can decide whom they would politically side with among the relevant parties in this war. I just questioned some of your ideological criteria and certainties: “I strongly doubt that you (or anybody else for that matter) are really capable of an effective and impartial mapping of ethnic groups over territories to define sovereign states”. On the other side, my decision is based on a wider set of criteria than yours (including e.g. treaties, international and Western resolutions, defense&economic consequences, etc.), despite inherent doubts (e.g. given the dilemma between increasing the risks of a nuclear escalation and containing Russian terroristic expansionism, between supporting and questioning/counterbalancing the US hegemony in Western foreign politics ).

Quoting Apollodorus
If, according to you, non-Western views are the views of "dominant elites that are unable of competing against Western dominant elites", then surely this shows that the dominant views are the views of elites. And this is precisely why we shouldn't stay fixated on elite narratives like those peddled by CIA-NATO trolls and bots, and consider the views of ordinary (and real) people from both sides.


You are trying to infer from my claims more than what they actually support. Since there are differences in democratic “representativeness”, “cohesion”, and “influence” across Western and non-Western elites, I may exercise my skepticism about their declared views according to such differences (e.g. I can suspect a lot about American self-interest in this war as much as I can do for Putin’s ambitions to expand Russian sphere of influence behind both narratives, yet I doubt that Putin didn’t have any other alternative that were more palatable for everybody except for the US, than going to war against Ukraine, while the US&Ukraine didn't do anything to Russia comparatively as aggressive as Russia did against Ukraine).
Moreover, as I already pointed out, I’m also skeptical about the popular “populist” dichotomy (evil elites vs innocent&fooled people) and the same goes with your dichotomy between “ordinary (and real) people” narrative and “elite narrative”, also because ordinary people can believe in all kinds of deranged conspiracy theories to fight some “evil” elites while being unaware of serving other and maybe more “evil” elites.

Quoting Apollodorus
Furthermore, considering that NATO is clearly involved in this conflict by supplying training, arms, cash, intelligence, propaganda, etc., to Ukraine while at the same time waging economic, financial, and information jihad on Russia, I think it is perfectly legitimate to discuss NATO, its US and UK leaders, their motives, and their aims.
You obviously think people shouldn't even mention NATO, America, England, EU, because, God forbid, it might expose the West's true imperialist agenda. And that's exactly what CIA-NATO bots are programmed to avoid at all costs. Not very successfully, though


What?! I’ve been talking about the West from my first comment up until now: Dude, Russia is a direct existential threat to the West (primarily to the EU), given its nuclear arsenal and related repeated threats, its political infiltration in support of populist movements in the West, its veto power at the UN, its energetic blackmailing, its military presence in the Middle East and in Africa, its power concentration in one man's hands, and Putin's declared ambitions to establish a new world order with China and directly antagonise the West. You can continue your intellectual masturbation over the hypocrisy of the West all you want, but at this point the West should not tolerate a terrorist state that big that aggressive that close. "Very simple and easy to understand”.
Besides have I ever said anything at all about what you should or shouldn’t mention wrt the war in Ukraine?! Hell no. I just criticised your claims as much as you criticised mine and others’. In other words, questioned their rationality. And criticising is not suppressing other people’s opinions, right? So what on earth are you complaining about?!





Merkwurdichliebe May 11, 2022 at 23:28 #694042
Quoting Apollodorus
Incidentally, I'm not sure he would have agreed with NATOISM either.


I'm sure he would have criticized it in his special way for its derived morality and general collectivism.

Quoting frank
Wrong! Richard Dawkins had a time machine and he did it. Because he's an asshole!


He is an asshole. The time machine couldn't help him, he was born that way.

jorndoe May 12, 2022 at 04:13 #694158
What can be learnt from this thread: Countries are evil. Organizations are abominable (well, military ones at least). People are fassholes. Or just stupid. @schopenhauer1 is vindicated. :up: :smile:

Benkei May 12, 2022 at 05:01 #694172
Reply to Olivier5 Yes, EU countries are starting to signal to the US that a protracted war is in their view not an option and that they need to pursue peace and not "bleeding Russians". Macron's comment on security guarantees is interesting though because so far Ukraine asked for that and every county refused. They do not want to commit to another "article 5" promise and NATO says "no". I haven't given it much thought yet but I'm not sure how such security guarantees would look like.

At the same time, Russia would pursue some negative security guarantees. So the interests seem to be opposed but that's what negotiations are for, figuring out a win-win.

What do you think a solution would look like?
Punshhh May 12, 2022 at 06:02 #694184
Reply to Isaac
Clearly not. One possible risk is that its expansion decreases global security. It's not defending against that risk, is it?

Oh, I forgot to mention that it’s move to defend against threats doesn’t necessarily include its threat to itself.


Wait, so now Russia is a threat to NATO? A minute ago Russia wouldn't dare strike against NATO. That's why Sweden and Finland were joining. If Russia are s threat to NATO, Sweden and Finland would be better off independent.

I was talking about Putin, you know the autocrat with his finger on the button. Oh and also there is the rhetoric from Lavrov on the issue of nuclear war. As I say, here is justification enough for these developments in NATO.
Punshhh May 12, 2022 at 06:04 #694185
Reply to Apollodorus And Lavrov’s comments?
Isaac May 12, 2022 at 06:09 #694187
Quoting Punshhh
As I say, here is justification enough for these developments in NATO.


But that's the very matter in polarised debate among the experts. You can't reasonably claim it is justification enough. It very clearly isn't.

The question is whether an expanding NATO will act as deterrent or provocation for the aforementioned autocrat. If you answer 'yes' then joining NATO is a reckless and self-defeating move. If you answer 'no', then it's either sensible, or pointless (depending on your assessment of non-nato related risks).

In no case is it simply a settled matter that joining is justified because Putin's an autocrat with nuclear weapons.
jorndoe May 12, 2022 at 06:21 #694191
One cannot declare peace if another declares war. One can engage either way. Peace is gone with one assailant. The (logical) structure is akin to war taking one, and peace taking all. Simple enough, though not heartening when(ever) peace is preferable over war.

Russia shelling Ukraine is like that. Presently, peace (and less suffering) requires Putin making such a decision, giving such a command. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be in sight right now.

Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 06:31 #694193
Quoting Benkei
how such security guarantees would look like.


I imagine a mutual protection treaty.
Benkei May 12, 2022 at 06:32 #694194
Reply to Olivier5 sorry that's not clear to me. Between whom?
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 06:34 #694195
Reply to Benkei Between some European states and Ukraine.
neomac May 12, 2022 at 07:29 #694199
02.01.2005 Interview with Sergej Lavrov by the German business newspaper Handelsblatt:


Question: Does the right to sovereignty also mean for Georgia and Ukraine, for example, that Russia would have nothing against their accession to the EU and NATO?

Lavrov: That is their choice. We respect the right of every state - including our neighbors - to choose its own partners, to decide for itself which organization to join. We assume that they will consider for themselves how they develop their politics and economy and which partners and allies they rely on.


https://amp2.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/handelsblatt-interview-mit-aussenminister-lawrow-russland-oeffnet-ukraine-den-weg-in-die-nato/2460820.html


ssu May 12, 2022 at 08:11 #694213
Quoting Christoffer
SSU said that joining Nato would lead to Russia attacking Finland? Really, ssu?


Quoting Isaac
It's here


Quoting ssu
Russia has constantly threatened Finland and Sweden with "serious military and political repercussions" if they join NATO. For years now, actually.


Oh boy, Isaac.

Russia has genuinely said that, yet "serious military and political repercussions" doesn't mean Russia will attack Finland. Actually very typical nonsense from you, so enough with your rubbish counterarguments and twistings of what people say.

From Interfax:

March 12 (Interfax) - Finland and Sweden's possible accession to NATO would have serious military and political consequences and require Russia to take retaliatory measures, Russian Foreign Ministry Second European Department Director Sergei Belyayev said.

"It is obvious that Finland and Sweden's joining NATO, which is a military organization in the first place, would have serious military and political consequences requiring use to revise the entire range of relations with these countries and take retaliatory measures," Belyayev said in an interview with Interfax.


My quoting this statement (and there are others), doesn't mean that I'm saying that Russia will attack Finland. But of course you will just twist things.

Besides, several counties (among the UK) have given security guarantees for both Sweden and Finland now for the time the countries apply for membership. So let's see what those retaliatory measures are.

From today:
Finland should join Nato to better handle its security, said the country's Prime Minister and president in a joint declaration on Thursday morning.

Sanna Marin (SDP) and Sauli Niinistö said they had come to the conclusion after a wide-ranging debate on security policy following Russia's renewed attack on Ukraine.

"Now that the moment of decision-making is near, we state our equal views, also for information to the parliamentary groups and parties. NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security," read the statement.

"As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance. Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days."

Isaac May 12, 2022 at 08:18 #694215
Quoting ssu
serious military and political repercussions" doesn't mean Russia will attack Finland.


So what would the military repercussions be then?
Benkei May 12, 2022 at 09:09 #694222
Reply to Olivier5 As I said, they've indicated they don't want to give such assurances to Ukraine.
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 09:41 #694228
Reply to Benkei Not sure what you are trying to say here.

The Europeans are saying to UK/US: "the goal is to repel the invasion, not to 'bleed Russia', so don't get too excited." What I would like to know now, is: have US/UK media reported that call, or not?

Apparently they have relayed neither Macron's nor Draghi's remarks of yesterday.

And that poses a problem to me: it looks like the US and UK are trapped into just as much of a controlled media as Russia right now... As during the war on Iraq, the US and UK press now behaves as subservient to political power and thus betrays its mission, which is to critique inform and educate independently from political power.

Seems Chomsky did get that right, irrespective of his obsession with the evils of the US making him unable to understand popular support to NATO in Europe.
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 09:57 #694231
Quoting Isaac
So what would the military repercussions be then?


We shall see, now that Finland has applied.
Christoffer May 12, 2022 at 10:19 #694237
Quoting Olivier5
We shall see, now that Finland has applied.


I suspect nothing since we know Russia lies through their teeth and uses propaganda and information as tools of war. The medium is the message. It's not what they say that is important it's how its used. To threaten Finland and Sweden of action if we join Nato is not to say that they will attack if we join Nato, but to deter us from joining in order to win against us with a pure propaganda game. But they will probably don't do anything if we join because it is just as suicidal as attacking any other Nato member. However, when their military power is built up again and if we don't join, they have an opening to attack because they know they can't just use the propaganda game to deter us from joining.

This is why joining right now is the only option, because Russia is weakened and sitting around waiting for some other ideal time to join would be downright stupid. And if Finland joins but Sweden doesn't, annexing Gotland would be an extremely important strategic point for Russia, especially to place nukes on. It would flank most regions of northern Nato members. So, that's why I said we have little choice but to join now. Russia is too dangerous to wait for them to recover before trying to join any kind of security.
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 10:20 #694238
Maria Alyokhina, the leader of the Pussy Riot band, escaped Russia by disguising herself as a food courier to avoid Moscow police, the New York Times reports.

Alyokhina was set to spend 21 days in a penal colony, but she left the country before Moscow police detained her.

The Pussy Riot's leader threw on the food courier disguise to avoid the Moscow police who were staked outside of her friend's apartment where she had been staying, the New York Times reports.

She left her cellphone behind to trick the police and avoid any tracking.

A friend then drove Alyokhina to Russia's border with Belarus and she traveled to Lithuania within a week.

The music band Pussy Riot, which was founded back in 2011 in Russia, is known for its protest songs and concerts that promote civil liberties.

Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 10:22 #694239
Quoting Christoffer
Russia is too dangerous to wait for them to recover before trying to join any kind of security.


I agree. It's now or never.
ssu May 12, 2022 at 10:44 #694245
Quoting Isaac
So what would the military repercussions be then?


Well, starting from the things they already have said: deploying more nukes to Kaliningrad and perhaps to the Finnish Border. I guess the obvious thing would be to reinforce the air defenses in the Leningrad area and basically put more troops on the border. Assuming when they aren't fighting in Ukraine anymore.

And of course if you forget the actual events, Putin can now declare this as obvious proof that the West is out to get Russia. Yet the truth is that without the invasion of Ukraine, neither the Swedish or Finnish administrations, which both are lead by social democrats, wouldn't have made such a move and opted to use the "NATO option".

The probability of a military attack against Finland or Sweden is low. But at least the military here understands it's a possibility. Reservists are called to exercises far more frequently than before.
Christoffer May 12, 2022 at 10:55 #694249
Quoting ssu
I guess the obvious thing would be to reinforce the air defenses in the Leningrad area and basically put more troops on the border.


It will also stretch the Russian army thin, they will put more of their GDP into military development, which in turn will strain society. The positive outcome of this might be that the population suffers and rally against the government. Much of the pressure before the Soviet Union fell came from the mothers of deceased soldiers who earlier were strong supporters of that regime, the same can happen with this conflict and if not with this conflict then with the upcoming economy stretching thin as Russia tries to squeeze as much as they can into the military. As I've been saying, a Russian revolution would be better for the world and for Russia itself. Maybe it could be the last breath of old imperial thinking in Russia moving into a much more balanced and functioning society. But that's just too much optimism. Russia will probably just be like North Korea, maybe even best buddies with them, as have been hinted by their communication with each other. I don't think China will dare to touch Russia after this. They have collaborations with North Korea, but they treat it very hush-hush so as to not complicate things with their relation to the rest of the world.
Isaac May 12, 2022 at 11:54 #694267
Quoting ssu
perhaps


Quoting ssu
I guess


And yet apparently thinking "military repercussions" might mean an attack is

Quoting ssu
typical nonsense


The hubris is unbelievable. You come up with a load of armchair speculation ranging from the motives of leaders, the military tactics of armies, political strategies, economic repercussions... And then have the shameless ego to assume literally any other such guesswork is "nonsense". It just beggars belief.

You've created this post hoc narrative where Russia's capabilities and intentions fit exactly the course of action you've already decided you prefer (and no other), and you don't even seem to see how ridiculous that sounds in an environment of widely disagreeing expert opinion.

It's fascinating to be part of, I have to say.
Streetlight May 12, 2022 at 12:10 #694272
Quoting Isaac
The hubris is unbelievable. You come up with a load of armchair speculation ranging from the motives of leaders, the military tactics of armies, political strategies, economic repercussions... And then have the shameless ego to assume literally any other such guesswork is "nonsense". It just beggars belief.


:up:
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 12:21 #694274
@Isaac keeps misunderstanding others, all the time, that's what he does here. He's good at it. I guess it stems from 'the will to be dumb', the desire for obscurity and doubt, the fear of clarity. What he calls 'hubris' is exactly that: clarity of thought, and he's pissed when you clarify things.
Christoffer May 12, 2022 at 12:29 #694277
Quoting Olivier5
keeps misunderstanding others, all the time, that's what he does here. He's good at it. I guess it stems from 'the will to be dumb', the desire for obscurity and doubt, the fear of clarity. What he calls 'hubris' is exactly that: clarity of thought, and he's pissed when you clarify things.


It's so much easier to misunderstand and keep your narrative than to understand and challenge yourself. It's a bias that most people do and it's what philosophy aims to bypass. But clearly, there's no philosophy in this thread, the setting is set to "common internet forum mode".
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 12:44 #694282
Quoting Christoffer
the setting is set to "common internet forum mode".


We can do better than that. Even @Isaac can, I suspect. This is an important topic, about war and peace, life and death, far more important than any 'philosophical zombie'. Hence this thread should be better curated than others, not abandoned by the mods as it is now.

Irrespective of any moderation, we as a group can decide that this topic deserves better than that. We can raise the bar, if we all agree.
Isaac May 12, 2022 at 12:55 #694286
Quoting Olivier5
keeps misunderstanding others, all the time, that's what he does here. He's good at it.


Claiming to be 'misunderstood' is a fallback of edgy artists and adolescents going through their goth phase.

If you want to avoid misunderstanding, perhaps focus more on clear articulation and less on bizarre insults, shitposting cartoons, and discussion of Hungarian bathhouses...?

...

Quoting Christoffer
It's so much easier to misunderstand and keep your narrative than to understand and challenge yourself. It's a bias that most people do and it's what philosophy aims to bypass.


Quoting Olivier5
his thread should be better curated than others, not abandoned by the mods as it is now.


This is priceless. In consecutive comments we've got @Christoffer complaining about people dogmatically keeping their narrative, and @Olivier5 complaining about thread quality...

The same people who, respectively, haven't changed a single iota of their narrative despite 200 pages of multi-partisan commentary, and who thought it would be funny to do a little skit about anal rape.

Do you two even have mirrors? Do you read what you write, or are really so self-absorbed you can't see how you're perpetrating the exact crimes you're accusing everyone else of? Is it the pace of commentary that's the problem, the emotional nature of it...?
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 12:57 #694288
Reply to Isaac Why so aggressive all the time? Why can't you just agree to disagree in a cool headed manner? Keep some sense of humour; try and understand others.

Why so pissed?

What is it to you if the Swedes and Finns join NATO, for instance? Would it peel some skin off your nose? What do you care for their policies and alliances?
Streetlight May 12, 2022 at 13:05 #694293
Anyway, this is a fun read about recent German cowardice, among other things:

https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/return-of-the-king

If Germany had the courage to ask for a say on the American-Ukrainian strategy, nothing like this appears to have been on offer: the German tanks, it seems, will be handed over carte blanche. Rumours have it that the numerous wargames commissioned in recent years from military thinktanks by the American government involving Ukraine, NATO and Russia have one way or other all ended in nuclear Armageddon, at least in Europe.

...De-industrializing Russia, à la von der Leyen, will not be possible anyway as China will ultimately not allow it: not least because it needs a functioning Russian state for its New Silk Road project. Popular demands in the West for Putin and his camarilla to stand trial in the International Criminal Court in The Hague will, for these reasons alone, remain unfulfilled.

...Ukrainian politics apart, an American proxy war for Ukraine may force Russia into a close relationship of dependence on Beijing, securing China a captive Eurasian ally and giving it assured access to Russian resources, at bargain prices as the West would no longer compete for them. Russia, in turn, could benefit from Chinese technology, to the extent that it would be made available. At first glance, an alliance like this might appear to be contrary to the geostrategic interests of the United States. It would, however, come with an equally close, and equally asymmetrical, American-dominated alliance between the United States and Western Europe, one that would keep Germany under control and suppress French aspirations for ‘European sovereignty’.


This being a far more astute analysis than @Christoffer's completely naive and frankly delusional idea that "China won't dare to touch Russia after this".
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 13:24 #694297
Quoting jorndoe
What can be learnt from this thread: Countries are evil. Organizations are abominable (well, military ones at least). People are fassholes. Or just stupid.


In other words, much cynicism has been spilled and spent here, as if hope was an offense.
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 13:29 #694298
Reply to Streetlight China is well poised to 'buy' Russia, I agree. Ultimately, their eyes are on Siberia.
Streetlight May 12, 2022 at 13:32 #694301
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Aj5wnc3mI00J:https://newleftreview.org/issues/i234/articles/peter-gowan-the-nato-powers-and-the-balkan-tragedy+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au&

Another fun read on how the West - that is to say, NATO under US leadership - effectively ensured that the Yugoslavian massacres would be as horrendous as they were:

There is a powerful impulse within the electorates of the nato states for their governments to give a lead to the world and really help the less fortunate overwhelming majority of humanity to improve their lives and strengthen their security and welfare. But we must bear in mind two unfortunate facts: first, that the nato states have been and are hell-bent on exacerbating the inequalities of power and wealth in the world, on destroying all challenges to their overwhelming military and economic power and on subordinating almost all other considerations to these goals; and second, the nato states are finding it extraordinarily easy to manipulate their domestic electorates into believing that these states are indeed leading the world’s population towards a more just and humane future when, in reality, they are doing no such thing.

The fate of Yugoslavia in the 1990s has been a classic case of this general story. nato electorates thought their states were trying to help in Yugoslavia, even if they were not ‘doing enough’. In reality, Western policies promoted the descent into barbaric wars. There are occasions when advanced capitalist countries will help the populations of other states. But these occasions are rare, namely when the welfare of the populations of these other states is a vital weapon in a struggle against another powerful enemy. This applied to us policy towards Western Europe when it was threatened by Communist triumph in the early post-war years. The welfare of the people of Yugoslavia has been irrelevant to the nato powers in the 1990s because these powers have faced no effective enemies whatever.

...It is surely right that institutions should be built that can put a stop to such acts of political violence and can punish their perpetrators. But we face an acute dilemma when we confront this task because we know enough about the dynamics of politics to be able to identify not only the perpetrators of atrocities, but the international actors who helped and continue to help create the conditions in which such perpetrators arise. And, in the Yugoslav case, the Western powers, by their deliberate acts of commission and omission, played a central role in creating the conditions in which barbaric acts were bound to flourish.


History repeats itself.
neomac May 12, 2022 at 13:41 #694306
In favor of Russia, I can only say that as long as there is no plausible prospective of re-integrating Russia in the world economy, while addressing in a less confrontational way their security concerns at the border, Russia will remain an issue, even if we could get rid of Putin. Besides the risk for a Russian revanchist comeback (maybe with the help of China or India), Europe can't fully rely on the Americans at the prospect of having Trump (or Tucker Carlson?!) as US President at the next round.
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 13:48 #694313
Quoting neomac
the risk for a Russian revanchist comeback


Yes. Don't redo the mistake of the Versaille treaty.
Apollodorus May 12, 2022 at 13:53 #694318
Quoting Punshhh
And Lavrov’s comments?


You said "Putin's threat". Lavrov is not Putin. And you're not saying which of "Lavrov's comments" you're referring to. One of them was:

When the risks (of using nuclear weapons - ed.) are very, very substantial, I would not like these risks to be artificially inflated, and there are many people willing to do so. The risk is grave, it is real, it can not be underestimated - Interview with Channel One Russia, April 25, 2022


Nuclear war: Lavrov says “the risk is real” - Ukrainian Pravda

Russia's Lavrov: Do not underestimate threat of nuclear war - Reuters

The "threat" here seems to be meant in the more general sense of threat to both sides from a possible nuclear war. And he says that Russia stands for ruling out the threat of nuclear conflicts despite high risks at the moment and wants to reduce all chances of "artificially" elevating those risks.

Of course, this was blown out of proportion by NATO propaganda, but many, including Boris Johnson, have actually dismissed the idea of a "threat" of nuclear escalation. James Heappey (Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Armed Forces) told the BBC that there was a “vanishingly small” possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Moreover, NATO's war on Russia had already started and kept intensifying which means that there wasn't much fear of Russian nuclear strikes.

Quoting neomac
would you contemplate the possibility to make Crimea a neutral state independent from Ukraine and Russia?


See, statements of that kind suggest either (a) that you aren't following the discussion and are just trolling for the sake of it, or (b) that you're some kind of CIA-NATO bot.

My position has always been that every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners. In fact, long before the Ukraine conflict.

So, OF COURSE, I would contemplate Crimea as an independent state if that's what Crimeans want, in the same way I think countries like Tibet, Cyprus, Kurdistan, and continents like Europe, Africa, etc., should be independent. That's why I'm against imperialism, be it American, European, Russian, Chinese, Turkish, or whatever.

I never said Crimea must belong to Russia. It's the NATO Nazis that are saying Crimea MUST belong to Ukraine!

What I'm saying is that Russia has more of a claim on Crimea than Ukraine has. So, no, I'm NOT denying independence to Crimea at all. It is YOU who is denying independence to Tibet, Cyprus, Kurdistan, etc. You even got mad at the thought of it, which exposes your inconsistency and hypocrisy in addition to your inability to read and think! :rofl:

Interestingly, there are three NATO activists here (including yourself) and all three got mad at the thought of China returning Tibet to the Tibetans, Turkey returning Cyprus to the Cypriots, etc. And without offering any explanation.

Anyway, as I said, I don’t see what you’re contributing to this discussion because all you seem to be doing is regurgitate the NATO Troll’s anti-Russian propaganda and disinformation.

I think even the blind can see that this is a war between Russia and NATO. You’re trying to reduce it to an issue between Putin and Ukraine in order to deflect attention from the West’s involvement and criminal culpability.

Unfortunately for NATO activists and trolls, the OP says to discuss NATO’s manoeuvres. And this is what I’m doing.

The fact is that NATO has been around for a very long time and that it was created for the express purpose of containing Russia.

The NATO website says very clearly:

Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay was NATO’s first Secretary General, a position he was initially reluctant to accept. By the end of his tenure however, Ismay had become the biggest advocate of the organisation he had famously said earlier on in his political career, was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”


Lord Ismay – NATO

Ismay was a representative of British imperial interests. He had been State Secretary for the Committee of Imperial Defence and was appointed by none other than Churchill, another arch-imperialist.

Though being an empire, Britain at the time was bankrupt and totally dependent on US financial assistance, which essentially made it a client-state of America. NATO, therefore, represented Anglo-American imperialist interests and as such its objective was to contain and, eventually, destroy all countries that were opposed to Anglo-American interests. The main opponent at the time was Communist Russia a.k.a. Soviet Union (USSR).

NATO showed its true colors after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union was what Reagan called the Evil Empire, and NATO’s purpose was to “keep the Soviet Union out of Europe”, then NATO should have disbanded when the Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991.

NATO not only failed to disband, but actually increased its members from 15 to 28 (!) countries, starting with Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, which became members in 1999. Why was it necessary for NATO to almost double its membership when its stated target, the Soviet Union or “Evil Communist Empire”, no longer existed?

According to CIA-NATO disinformation and lies, NATO after the Cold War expanded because Eastern European countries like Poland were so scared of Russia that they begged NATO to allow them to join.

However, Poland may have had other reasons for joining, such as financial assistance. The real question for the purposes of this discussion is not why Poland joined but why NATO thought it was in its own interest to invite Poland to join. Not what a small country like Poland wanted, but what the already huge NATO Empire wanted.

NATO wanted to expand eastward because Russia’s western borders had moved further east, leaving a vacuum that NATO, as an imperialist and expansionist organization, was eager to fill. Moreover, the very fact that NATO moved its defense line eastward means (1) that NATO continued to regard Russia as enemy even after Russia had ceased to be Communist, and (2) that NATO had no intention to stop expanding eastward.

The fact is that contrary to CIA-NATO propaganda and lies, NATO is not some philanthropic organization whose expansion is somehow driven by the needs of countries that apply for membership. Its expansion is driven by its own agenda which is to promote the interests of its creators, America and its client-state Britain.

As in the case of Poland, CIA-NATO disinformation and lies claim that Ukraine wanted to join NATO. But this doesn’t mean that this is not what NATO itself wanted, nor does it exclude the possibility that Ukraine wanted to join because it was being encouraged or pushed to do so by NATO.

Indeed, steps to incorporate Ukraine into the NATO Empire were already taken at the NATO summit of July 1990, held in London, when NATO leaders proposed cooperation with all countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

It is important to carefully follow what happened next:

24 August 1991, Ukraine declared itself independent from the Soviet Union.

8 December 1991, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, which had been the original founding members of the Soviet Union, established the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to replace the Soviet Union.

20 December 1991, NATO created the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in which Ukraine and the other CIS countries were invited to participate.

So, we can see that NATO had planned to incorporate Ukraine (1) even before Ukraine became officially independent, and (2) at a time when Ukraine had willingly joined Russia and Belarus in the Commonwealth of Independent States!

Up to this point, Crimea had not been a major problem as relations between Ukraine and Russia had remained friendly. Russian President Yeltsin recognized Ukraine’s independence unconditionally, but in hindsight this seems to have been a mistake because some unresolved issues remained in relation to (1) Soviet nuclear weapons stationed in Ukraine, (2) the Black Sea Fleet, and (3) Crimea.

On December 30, 1991, Ukraine and Russia signed the Minsk Agreement in which it was agreed that Russia would be given charge of all nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil. But in February 1992 Ukraine announced its intention to pursue a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). This transformed all the above issues into major problems.

On May 23, 1992 Ukraine signed the Lisbon Protocol in which it agreed to return the nuclear weapons to Russia. Later that year, Ukraine changed its mind and claimed ownership of the nuclear warheads. In April 1993 it declared that it would only return some of the nuclear weapons. This unexpected move by Ukraine was criticized by both Russia and the US (which was acting as mediator), and the problem continued to fester.

An agreement was reached in the 1994 Trilateral Statement between Ukraine, Russia, and the US for Ukraine to return the weapons in exchange for security assurances and economic support from Russia and the US.

The Black Sea Fleet problem was temporarily resolved with the Partition Treaty of 1997 which divided the fleet and allowed Russia to use some of the Crimean naval bases.

But Crimea itself remained a major problem. The Soviet Union under Khrushchev had “gifted” Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. This may have made sense for inter-Soviet administrative purposes, as Crimea was geographically closer to Kiev than to Moscow. However, in May 1992, after Ukraine’s independence, the Russian parliament declared the “gifting” of Crimea to Ukraine illegitimate.

More important, and what CIA-NATO propaganda attempts to cover up, Crimea which at the time had an ethnic-Russian majority and a small Ukrainian minority, had started its own movement of independence from Ukraine. Already on July 16, 1990, Crimea had declared its state sovereignty. On January 20, 1991, i.e., prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) and even prior to Ukrainian independence, the Crimeans voted to become an autonomous republic as they had been before being “gifted” to Ukraine, and this was granted by the Soviet leadership.

Therefore, when Ukraine became independent, Crimea remained an autonomous republic within Ukraine. Moreover, it continued its efforts to become independent. On February 26 1992, the Crimean parliament renamed the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Republic of Crimea, and on May 5 it proclaimed self-government and enacted a separate constitution to that of Ukraine. Ukraine dismissed Crimea’s action as illegal and although the Crimean parliament created the post of President of Crimea in 1993, in 1998 Crimea was pressured by Ukraine to rename itself Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

After its annexation by Russia in 2014, Crimea reassumed the name of Republic of Crimea as enacted by the Crimean parliament in 1992.

The basic historical timeline of Crimea is as follows:

5th century BC: Greeks begin to establish colonies on Crimea’s southern coast.
47 BC – 330 AD: Roman Empire.
330 AD – 1204 AD: Byzantine Empire. Important trade hub between the Rus and the Greeks.
950 AD – 1204 AD: Part of Crimean interior controlled by the Rus.
1239 AD – 1441 AD: Interior under Turco-Mongol Golden Horde.
1204 AD - 1475 AD: The south under (Greek) Empire of Trebizond and Principality of Theodoro.
1475 AD – 1774 AD: Ottoman Empire.
1778 AD – 1917 AD: Russian Empire.
1921 AD – 1945 AD: Autonomous Republic within Russian Soviet Republic (Russian SFSR).
1954 AD – 1990 AD: Transferred to Ukraine within the Soviet Union (USSR).
1991 AD – 2014 AD: Autonomous Republic within Ukraine. Attempts to become independent.

IMO the historical facts show (1) that Crimea had never been Ukrainian (even in demographic terms) in the first place, (2) that Crimea saw itself as a separate state from Ukraine after Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union (and even before), and (3) that the Crimea issue was not created by the current Russian state and even less by Putin who wasn’t even in power at the time.

So, basically, you haven’t got a leg to stand on … :smile:



Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 14:52 #694359
Italian PM Draghi Now Supports Ruble Payment Scheme for Russian Gas
By Charles Kennedy - May 11, 2022, 5:30 PM CDT

As the European Union warns companies against paying for Russian gas in rubles, Italy’s prime minister has stated the opposite, saying that European companies are free to pay in Russian currency without finding themselves in breach of sanctions that lack clarity.

“There is no official pronouncement of what it means to breach sanctions,” Draghi said during a press conference on Wednesday, as reported by Bloomberg. “Nobody has ever said anything about whether ruble payment breach sanctions.”

The Italian prime minister also claimed that “most of the gas importers” had already opened ruble accounts with Russian Gazprom.

On Tuesday, VNG, one of Germany’s largest importers of natural gas, reportedly opened a ruble account with Russian Gazprombank, which will see its euro payment converted into rubles in line with Russia’s scheme to bypass sanctions.

VNG was the second German company to have done this. In pril, German Uniper also said it was preparing the necessary accounts for the ruble payments.

The scheme, devised by Russia, envisions national gas purchasers opening two separate accounts with Gazprombank–one in euros or dollars and a second in rubles. Payments are made to the first account and then converted to rubles and transferred to the second account.

"To pay in rubles — if this is not foreseen in the contract — is a breach of our sanctions," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said two weeks ago. "Companies with such contracts should not accede to the Russian demands."

Several EU countries will have to renew supply contracts with Gazprom by the end of this month.
ssu May 12, 2022 at 15:00 #694363
Reply to IsaacWhat I have referred to nonsense is you saying I have said that Russia will invade Finland. I've only quoted what Russian officials have said.

"Russia will" is definitive. What I've said that a military response is unlikely. Russia is already engaged in one war. A hybrid response is far more probable. And a political response is very probable.

Quoting Isaac
perhaps
— ssu

I guess
— ssu


How Putin exactly will respond we cannot know. So saying "perhaps" isn't hubris.

Quoting Isaac
You come up with a load of armchair speculation ranging from the motives of leaders, the military tactics of armies, political strategies, economic repercussions...

?

Obviously you simply do not know anything about such issues as military tactics, and obviously think that others are as ignorant as you. As usual, we do quote or make references to sources.

ssu May 12, 2022 at 15:13 #694366
Quoting Apollodorus
That's why I'm against imperialism, be it American, European, Russian, Chinese, Turkish, or whatever.


Then only a few sentences later:

Quoting Apollodorus
What I'm saying is that Russia has more of a claim on Crimea than Ukraine has.

:snicker:

Or earlier, of the Russian expansionism according to our troll:

Quoting Apollodorus
As for Siberia, most of it was uninhabited land that the Russians gradually colonized and took over, no big deal.


Christoffer May 12, 2022 at 15:22 #694367
Reply to Apollodorus

Your argument for "rightful owners" of a piece of geographical land is just plain stupid. It's an argument that can be stretched to such extreme length that it becomes irrational as any kind of solution for any nation of the world. Just listen to people a bit more intelligent than you who reflect on the Ukraine conflict with the perspective of their own geopolitical perspective:



The world can argue back and forth about where to draw borders, but a peaceful world can be achieved by everyone accepting the status quo of borders as a reset for geographical conflicts and any shift to be through peaceful processes, not force.

Your argument for "rightful owners" is warmongering because it gives the right to anyone to take any point in history and claim their right to invade other nations because of it. It's the same stupidity that we condemn Russia for in view of the current invasion of Ukraine. By your concept, Sweden should invade Finland, the Baltics, Poland, and Russia and take back a large chunk of all of it because we owned it at one point in time. It's a stupid way of trying to justify invasions today and it falls flat.

ssu May 12, 2022 at 15:31 #694368
Quoting Christoffer
As I've been saying, a Russian revolution would be better for the world and for Russia itself.

I'm not so sure about that. If the Putinist regime would collapse like the Soviet Union, that would be great. We don't give enough credit how well the last leaders of the Soviet Union did handle the collapse of Union. Then it didn't go the way of Yugoslavia. But with people like Putin, you do have similar types as Milosevic. As one Serb intellectual put it, Milosevic was one of the worst things to happen to Serbia and the Serbians. There are many who believe in Putin in Russia. Those who oppose him flee to countries like Georgia.

It would be great if Russia did come to it's sense, but the real problem is that the Putinists might fight to the bitter end if it would come to it. And that isn't something I hope for.

* * *

Of course these issues should be looked from their positive effects: at least now Putin has a wonderful opportunity to help us to go green and off from (at least Russian) hydrocarbons. (The energy minister has said few days ago that Russia could cut off gas exports to Finland in weeks)
ssu May 12, 2022 at 15:34 #694369
Quoting Christoffer
Your argument for "rightful owners" of a piece of geographical land is just plain stupid.

Those that uphold ideas like "rightful ownership" are usually the one's who start wars.
Christoffer May 12, 2022 at 15:43 #694371
Quoting ssu
We don't give enough credit how well the last leaders of the Soviet Union did handle the collapse of Union.


Because they were mostly educated people. Indoctrinated, but educated and intelligent as to how to handle that collapse and they did it in a group, not through a bloated self-absorbed despot. Russian people today seem to have lost a few points of IQ for some reason, maybe due to long-time exposure to the Chornobyl downfall or something.



Russia needs an overhaul, it's rotten to the core with deadly corruption and degeneracy. Since most decent people seek to leave the nation, there will only be these degenerate criminals left.
Streetlight May 12, 2022 at 15:44 #694372
Russia: We will take retaliatory steps.

Finland: We are safer now!

--

frank May 12, 2022 at 16:01 #694375
Reply to Streetlight
It's funny that one of your favorite phrases is "bootlicker."

:lol:
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 16:08 #694378
Quoting ssu
Russia could cut off gas exports to Finland in weeks


Oh oh... Stocking up firewood yet?
ssu May 12, 2022 at 16:10 #694379
Quoting Christoffer
Because they were mostly educated people. Indoctrinated, but educated and intelligent as to how to handle that collapse and they did it in a group, not through a bloated self-absorbed despot.

Yes.

And of course, and what really broke the back of the Soviet Union was the 1991 putsch attempt, which put the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic directly opposed to the Union.

It's hard to explain how bizarre that situation was. It would be like a US President declaring that he would be taking all the powers from the States and the States then all walking away from the union. That wouldn't leave the Federal Government...with Washington DC?
Isaac May 12, 2022 at 16:12 #694380
Reply to Olivier5

Why so aggressive all the time? Why can't you just agree to disagree in a cool headed manner? Keep some sense of humour; try and understand others.

Why so pissed?

What is it to you if people talk about NATO a lot? Would it peel some skin off your nose? What do you care for their political opinions?
Isaac May 12, 2022 at 16:16 #694382
Quoting ssu
What I have referred to nonsense is you saying I have said that Russia will invade Finland.


I didn't.

Quoting ssu
A hybrid response is far more probable. And a political response is very probable.


...is a classic example of the falsehood of...

Quoting ssu
As usual, we do quote or make references to sources.


We'd be lucky if one claim in twenty is sourced.
ssu May 12, 2022 at 16:20 #694384
Quoting Olivier5
Oh oh... Stocking up firewood yet?

Why?

I've already have ample firewood at the countryside place. And trees, if it comes to that. And it starts finally to be warmer here. And anyway, this is the time to keep cool heads.

Quoting Streetlight
Russia: We will take retaliatory steps.

Finland: We are safer now!


Yeah. I think many were indeed quite naive about Putin's Russia. 24th of February finally changed that.
Olivier5 May 12, 2022 at 16:28 #694386
Quoting ssu
I've already have ample firewood at the countryside place. And trees, if it comes to that.


:up:
Punshhh May 12, 2022 at 16:45 #694392
Reply to Isaac
The question is whether an expanding NATO will act as deterrent or provocation for the aforementioned autocrat.


That would be to conduct foreign policy by the whim of one’s adversary.
ssu May 12, 2022 at 16:51 #694397
Quoting Isaac
A hybrid response is far more probable. And a political response is very probable.
— ssu

...is a classic example of the falsehood of...

As usual, we do quote or make references to sources.
— ssu


Russia has it forces in Ukraine (do you need references for that?). There aren't many forces on the Russian side of the Finnish border. (Here in Finnish, but use google translate).

So why hybrid?

Russia’s resources are currently focused heavily on Ukraine and on its own domestic operations. The situation may nevertheless change very quickly.

“Supo considers it likely that Russia will expand its cyber and information operations from Ukraine to the West. An increase in operations targeting Finland is therefore also considered probable in the coming months,” Pelttari notes.

Most online cyberattacks take the form of denial of service attacks and defacing of websites. Their perpetrators seek to give the impression of paralysing society, when in reality they do not compromise information or critical processes. While denial of service attacks and measures to combat them are commonplace for online businesses, the threat of more serious cyberattacks has nevertheless also increased. Businesses must continually ensure that the control circuitry of critical infrastructure such as energy distribution systems cannot be accessed directly from the public network.
link here

Or then the information front:

Tweeting on Wednesday (16 March), the Russian embassy in Helsinki encouraged Russian citizens in Finland to report by email if they have experienced hate speech, discrimination or human rights abuses. Close to 30,000 Russian citizens live in Finland, and more than 80,000 people speak Russian in the country.


Or in general, just what Russia could do... can be anticipated from what it has done:

Form Hybrid Operations and the Importance of Resilience: Lessons From Recent Finnish History (Carniege endowment for international Peace, author René Nyberg)

Few countries can match Finland’s long experience of dealing with Soviet and Russian hybrid warfare—before, during, and after the Cold War—and few countries have had as much success in standing up to it. The secret of Finland’s success can be found in the resilience of Finnish society, which is derived from its unique history and record of combining firmness with flexibility in dealing with its much larger, difficult, and unpredictable neighbor.

* * *

Another example is more recent. In the fall of 2015, third-country nationals without proper documents started to cross over the border from Russia to Norway. Since pedestrians are not allowed across the border, these people used bicycles. The Russian daily newspaper Kommersant coined the expression velobegstvo (flight by bike). Over 5,000 people crossed into Norway from Murmansk.

Soon after, the same pattern was repeated in northern Finland. Over 1,000 people without proper documents were allowed by Russian border authorities to cross into Finland. Most of these people were Afghans and others who had lived in Russia for years. They were now advised to leave the country and, with the help of criminal schleppers who helped them migrate, systematically directed toward the Norwegian and Finnish border crossings.

Again, the Finnish and Norwegian authorities were stunned. This was a breach of the border regime and, even worse, a breach of the confidence that had been painstakingly built up over decades. In hindsight, the argument that hurt Moscow was the question put to the FSB border guards: How does the FSB allow criminal elements, the schleppers, to operate on the Russian border? These poor souls with small children in arctic conditions were flown to Murmansk and Kandalaksha from Moscow, and then herded into hotels. Provided with rickety second-hand Soviet-era cars—for a hefty price, of course—they were directed during a polar night through uninhabited forests and past multiple Russian border posts toward the lights of the Finnish border crossing. At no point was Finland defenseless. It could have closed the border but did not do so.

What had happened? One interpretation is that the Russians just could not resist exploiting the refugee crisis in Europe that had unsettled all countries on the trail from Turkey into Scandinavia. It was a textbook hybrid operation to create mischief, but also to send a clear message that Moscow can cause trouble.


Hence, when your military is fighting a war in another place, then you obviously have to use different methods. Or is that too daring of a conclusion to make?



Punshhh May 12, 2022 at 16:56 #694399
Reply to Apollodorus
You said "Putin's threat". Lavrov is not Putin. And you're not saying which of "Lavrov's comments" you're referring to.


Putin appears to be and wants to depict himself as taking advice on this from Lavrov. Lavrov is using weasel words with veiled threats. There was also a mention of WW3 in another comment.

As I say sufficient cause for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Because this would be part of a defensive strategy and the threats I refer to are real threats which this strategy addresses. Whether, or not they are real threats, is irrelevant now. The threshold of risk has obviously been reached.

One could say that this is Putin’s strategy, to galvanise, expand and strengthen NATO.
Isaac May 12, 2022 at 17:06 #694402
Quoting Punshhh
That would be to conduct foreign policy by the whim of one’s adversary.


No, it would be to conduct foreign policy taking into account the whim of one's adversary... you know, like strategists actually do in the real world, the one outside of whatever LARPing fantasy you live in.
Isaac May 12, 2022 at 17:08 #694403
Quoting ssu
when your military is fighting a war in another place, then you obviously have to use different methods. Or is that too daring of a conclusion to make?


Again, your conclusion is not in the least question. Not too daring, well informed, and now fully cited. Well done.

What's in question (and remains uncited) is the notion that the alternative is 'nonsense'.
Streetlight May 12, 2022 at 17:12 #694406
Reply to Isaac Yeah imagine taking into account foreign powers when conducting uh, foreign policy.
Isaac May 12, 2022 at 17:19 #694411
Quoting Streetlight
Yeah imagine taking into account foreign powers when conducting uh, foreign policy.


I blame Top Gun
ssu May 12, 2022 at 19:19 #694443
Quoting Isaac
What's in question (and remains uncited) is the notion that the alternative is 'nonsense'.

As I said that (nonsense) referred to this:

Quoting Christoffer
SSU said that joining Nato would lead to Russia attacking Finland? Really, ssu?


Quoting Isaac
It's here


Quoting ssu
Russia has constantly threatened Finland and Sweden with "serious military and political repercussions" if they join NATO. For years now, actually.


Yet if you think Russia really will invade Finland, well, this was then a window of opportunity for us as Russia isn't a normal country trying to have normal relations with it's neighbors. If you haven't notice the abnormality from Putin's actions in Ukraine or Russia's actions in general in Ukraine. Or in Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus...
Punshhh May 12, 2022 at 20:53 #694458
Reply to Isaac
No, it would be to conduct foreign policy taking into account the whim of one's adversary... you know, like strategists actually do in the real world,


Precisely and that is what Finland has done. It was literally on Putin’s whim that Russian troops entered Ukraine. Finland watched this move and then applied to join NATO.

Can’t you see it yet? The location of the new Iron curtain is being decided.
ssu May 12, 2022 at 21:54 #694473
Quoting Punshhh
One could say that this is Putin’s strategy, to galvanise, expand and strengthen NATO.

Putin pretty much nailed that.

Getting one country to change it's course in security policy after 200 years of a successful policy that made it to avoid WW1 and WW2, and another one basically the time it has been independent, one surely has had to make some radical decisions. And Putin has made them.

Maybe he just thought taking over Ukraine would be worth it. Who knows. Yet starting a large scale conventional war does change things.
Christoffer May 12, 2022 at 22:11 #694477
Quoting ssu
Maybe he just thought taking over Ukraine would be worth it.


And this is why I think he's a delusional despot with stupid minions under him. To think that the world, with all the alliances it has from WWII and forward would just sit idle while they murder Ukrainians is a delusion that only someone far up their own asses would do. The cost is so high for Russia that it's close to proven that they are stupid regardless of whether they taking over the entire Ukraine or not.
Apollodorus May 12, 2022 at 22:19 #694480
Quoting Punshhh
Putin appears to be and wants to depict himself as taking advice on this from Lavrov.


I see what you mean. Still, it wasn't Putin who said it.

Or are you suggesting that every time Putin says something, we should assume it's Lavrov who is saying it, even when Putin isn't saying it?

Plus, NATO's war on Russia had already started by then.

The Finns and Swedes can join NATO or any other organization they like to. I think the real problem, or tragedy, actually, is that so many people (on both sides) are getting killed for the sake of politicians.

Reply to ssu Reply to Christoffer

It wasn't just me who said that Siberia was mostly uninhabited. (@Count Timothy of Icarus) said it and so would any other educated person.

If Russian presence in Crimea is "imperialism", so is Ukrainian presence.

If countries have "no rightful owners", on what basis are you claiming that a country belongs to a particular nation or state?

By your logic, Finland doesn't belong to the Finns, Sweden doesn't belong to the Swedes, Ukraine doesn't belong to Ukrainians, etc.

So, obviously, the Ukrainians aren't fighting for their country. Perhaps, they're fighting for America, then.

And whom do you think Tibet belongs to? To China who invaded, occupied, and annexed it?

But I must say it's really funny to see NATO trolls trying to "think" .... :grin:
Apollodorus May 12, 2022 at 22:43 #694491
.
frank May 12, 2022 at 23:14 #694500
Quoting ssu
Getting one country to change it's course in security policy after 200 years of a successful policy that made it to avoid WW1 and WW2, and another one basically the time it has been independent, one surely has had to make some radical decisions. And Putin has made them.


Why didn't Finland join earlier? They just didn't think there was any need?

Benkei May 13, 2022 at 04:35 #694554
Quoting Olivier5
Not sure what you are trying to say here.


That your proposed solution isn't a solution as this has already been rejected by countries asked to give security assurances to Ukraine. So the problem is really complex. How do you provide security to Ukraine in a way that's also acceptable to Russia and that other counties are prepared to give? (e.g. Article 5 like assurances are not going to fly).

I think saying "Ukraine gets to decide the terms of peace" is naive, also coming from Draghi. Their terms were to join NATO. We all know how that went. NATO pretended they could join and then when there was an actual war all of a sudden that door closed. Not the epitome of trustworthiness either. Any peace is going to have to be tripartite, Ukraine, Russia and whatever countries are involved to give Ukraine assurances.
Benkei May 13, 2022 at 05:14 #694567
Quoting frank
Why didn't Finland join earlier? They just didn't think there was any need?


Because the policy of determined neutrality worked for them. Both policies carry risk. If you're attacked, you're alone when you're neutral. On the other hand, you won't be dragged into wars for expediency and are aren't a target by association.

NATO was necessary during the Cold War. Nowadays I only see trouble ahead. It's just a means for the US to bring the fight to the doorstep of other countries, without risking their own resources. And it does that through various treaties, not just NATO. The US has only known 15 years of peace since its inception and we've already seen NATO involved in conflicts that weren't defensive.
Olivier5 May 13, 2022 at 06:35 #694595
Quoting Benkei
That your proposed solution isn't a solution


I haven't proposed anything. You misread the exchange.

Quoting Benkei
How do you provide security to Ukraine in a way that's also acceptable to Russia


First thing first, Russia has to be defeated and repelled from Ukraine. Once that is done, and I have no doubt it will be, the situation will be different: Russia will need security guarantees against a victorious Ukraine; and Belarus may become independent.
ssu May 13, 2022 at 06:58 #694599
Quoting frank
Why didn't Finland join earlier? They just didn't think there was any need?


The simple answer: The blowback from Russia seemed to be more than the security given by NATO. And earlier, especially during the Cold War and when there was the Soviet Union, we could have been in a similar situation as Ukraine is now. And basically (joining NATO) would have been a breach of the peace arrangement with the Soviet Union.

Quoting Benkei
Because the policy of determined neutrality worked for them. Both policies carry risk. If you're attacked, you're alone when you're neutral. On the other hand, you won't be dragged into wars for expediency and are aren't a target by association.


With Finland it was sort of like that as @Benkei said.

Yet this neutrality was forced on to Finland. The country was left to the Soviet sphere and Finland understood it couldn't just waltz into the West. Not to NATO, not to the EEC. As I described earlier, the position after WW2 and when NATO was formed in 1949 was dire and there wasn't any guarantees that Stalin wouldn't do his "unfinished business" with Finland later.

And one should remember that the Finnish Army, the largest political parties of the country and the institutions are the same as before WW2. We have the same army that fought against the Soviets in the Winter War, then fought alongside Hitler's Germany and then finally fought against Germany. The army wasn't disbanded and a new formed as in every other country that fought on the Axis side. This experience had a severe effect on Finnish psyche and thinking. There was no "VE Day" for Finland in WW2. No allies liberated us (thankfully!). And when a Finnish general that had served during the war was once accused by someone in the West that "You fought with Hitler. ", he snapped back "And you with Stalin!". He represented the Finnish attitude quite well.

This had the effect that Finns were highly sceptical about NATO prior, as were the Swedes. In fact the views of Benkei or Isaac were quite typical in Finland when it came to NATO and later people were happy of just having a "NATO option", but being separate from it. No need to anger the bear next door.

But then came 24th of February and broke that glass house we were living in like a 9/11 moment. Russia simply wasn't the reasonable, the normal country that you could have normal friendly relations with. This dawned to everybody. Old policies simply didn't work: no matter if you would be neutral, Russia would continue it's threats and abusive policies and would try to get into the dominating role it enjoyed during the Cold War in Finland. It is abundantly clear now. Above all, Putin is so reckless that it could start a large scale conventional war against a neighboring neutral country that was far larger than Finland.

Yougov did an interesting poll among European countries, which show how Finns compared to others view the war in Ukraine:

People in Finland are widely of the opinion that Russia is entirely or mostly responsible for the war in Ukraine, reveals a 17-country survey conducted by YouGov and the European University Institute.

As many as 85 per cent of respondents in the country estimated that responsibility for the situation is attributable entirely to Russia or more to Russia than Nato.

Only five per cent contrastively viewed that the responsibility should be attributed entirely or mostly to Nato and four per cent that the responsibility should be distributed equally between Russia and Nato.

Russia was regarded as the party mostly to blame by at least 70 per cent of respondents also in Sweden (80%), the UK (79%), Denmark (79%), Poland (73%) and the Netherlands (70%). Most Bulgarians and Greeks, by contrast, did not agree with the view that all or most of the blame should be put on Russia.

In Bulgaria, only 23 per cent of respondents viewed that Russia is entirely or mostly responsible for the situation, whereas 44 per cent viewed that most of the responsibility should be attributed to Nato and 13 per cent that the responsibility should be distributed equally between Russia and Nato. In Greece, 28 per cent of respondents stated that most of the responsibility lies with Nato and 29 per cent that the responsibility should be distributed equally between Russia and Nato.

Russia was nonetheless regarded as the sole or primary responsible party by at least 50 per cent of respondents in 13 of the 17 countries surveyed.


Punshhh May 13, 2022 at 07:05 #694600
Reply to Apollodorus
The Finns and Swedes can join NATO or any other organization they like to. I think the real problem, or tragedy, actually, is that so many people (on both sides) are getting killed for the sake of politicians.
Yes, this is why some kind of long term impasse is required. Such as a return to the Cold War.

It appears that Russia(Putin’s regime) hasn’t moved on from the Cold War like the rest of us(following the fall of the USSR). She will drag us back into it now, at great personal cost.
unenlightened May 13, 2022 at 07:16 #694601
Quoting Olivier5
Anna Politkovskaya


[quote=Anna]Putin has publicly demonstrated many times that he basically does not understand what a discussion is. Especially a political one – according to Putin, a discussion of the inferior and the superior shouldn’t take place. And if the subordinate allows it, then he is an enemy. Putin behaves in this way not deliberately, not because he is a tyrant and despot ad natum – he was simply brought up in ways that the KGB drilled in him, and he considers this system ideal, which he has publicly stated more than once. And therefore, as soon as someone disagrees with him, Putin categorically demands "to stop the hysteria." (Hence he refuses to participate in pre-election debates, which are not in his nature, he is not capable of them, he does not know how to make a dialog. He is an exclusive monologist. According to the military model the subordinate must keep silent. A superior talks, but in the mode of a monologue, and then all the inferiors are obliged to pretend that they agree. A sort of ideological hazing, sometimes turning into physical destruction and elimination as it happened to Khodorkovsky).[/quote]

This has the ring of truth. And if it is true, there is nothing to be done short of complete military defeat at any cost. It certainly makes more sense than the cries of delusion, stupidity, and pathology that are projected rather too easily in his general direction.

Having said that, I'm not sure all the contributors here understand what a discussion is either. :worry:
Olivier5 May 13, 2022 at 07:28 #694603
Reply to unenlightened Agreed on both points.

When Zelenskyy proposes direct talks between Putin and him, he's probly trolling Putin, knowing that his proposal is likely to be found offensive by the Megalomaniac in Chief.
Wayfarer May 13, 2022 at 07:39 #694608
The invasion has, in effect, has destroyed 30 years of economic progress, eviscerated the tiny shoots of democratic freedom that Russia was beginning to enjoy, and now engineered the exact opposite outcome in foreign policy of what he hoped to achieve through his military escapade.
ssu May 13, 2022 at 08:41 #694619
Quoting Wayfarer
The invasion has, in effect, has destroyed 30 years of economic progress, eviscerated the tiny shoots of democratic freedom that Russia was beginning to enjoy, and now engineered the exact opposite outcome in foreign policy of what he hoped to achieve through his military escapade.

Now the future for Russia is either bleak or even worse.

I remember when I stayed in Moscow in a family, acquaintances of my parents, during the last year when it was the Soviet Union. There was this nervousness on what the future would bring. It didn't look good. It looks similar for Russia now.

Then the possibility of a civil war loomed in the background. Well, it didn't come then, the civil war came now with the actions Putin and the war with Ukraine. In a way, this is the civil war after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Yet that's nothing compared to what Ukraine is going through now.
ssu May 13, 2022 at 08:48 #694622
Quoting Apollodorus
If Russian presence in Crimea is "imperialism", so is Ukrainian presence.

If countries have "no rightful owners", on what basis are you claiming that a country belongs to a particular nation or state?

What is imperialism is to acquire territory through military force.

When countries acknowledge the sovereignty of a state, then that typically defines also the territory then. With Ukraine, these were furthermore acknowledged with the Budapest memorandum.

Such actions and peace treaties define who are the "rightful owner" of a territory. Disagreement can lead to war, because assuming that the last treaties / peace agreements are wrong, that there's another "rightful owner", are accusations that can (and have lead) to wars.

neomac May 13, 2022 at 12:47 #694660
Quoting Apollodorus
See, statements of that kind suggest either (a) that you aren't following the discussion and are just trolling for the sake of it, or (b) that you're some kind of CIA-NATO bot.


Oh pls, can I be a CIA-NATO bot transformer?


Quoting Apollodorus
My position has always been that every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners. In fact, long before the Ukraine conflict. So, OF COURSE, I would contemplate Crimea as an independent state if that's what Crimeans want, in the same way I think countries like Tibet, Cyprus, Kurdistan, and continents like Europe, Africa, etc., should be independent. That's why I'm against imperialism, be it American, European, Russian, Chinese, Turkish, or whatever. I never said Crimea must belong to Russia. It’s the NATO Nazis that are saying Crimea MUST belong to Ukraine! What I'm saying is that Russia has more of a claim on Crimea than Ukraine has. So, no, I'm NOT denying independence to Crimea at all.


But I never said you said it MUST! I just questioned your claim that Crimea belongs to Russia.
Anyway according to your recent claim, Crimea doesn’t belong to Russia either, contrary to what you were claiming previously, because Crimea belongs to Crimeans. And you revised your claim from Crimea belongs to Russia and not Ukraine, to Russia has more of a claim on Crimea than Ukraine has. You have to clarify this point too.
Besides according to your principle of self-determination, then Ukraine is allowed to join NATO if they wish so, right?


Quoting Apollodorus
It is YOU who is denying independence to Tibet, Cyprus, Kurdistan, etc. You even got mad at the thought of it, which exposes your inconsistency and hypocrisy in addition to your inability to read and think! :rofl:


Unfortunately, you are establishing inconsistency and hypocrisy wrt principles I’m not committed to and claims I never made. Such repeated blunders of yours are even embarrassing to witness and boring to emend.


Quoting Apollodorus
Interestingly, there are three NATO activists here (including yourself) and all three got mad at the thought of China returning Tibet to the Tibetans, Turkey returning Cyprus to the Cypriots, etc. And without offering any explanation.


Ah yes, where were we? Here are the maps of the ethnic groups in Russia and China:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Map_of_the_ethnic_groups_living_in_the_Soviet_Union.jpg/1200px-Map_of_the_ethnic_groups_living_in_the_Soviet_Union.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/95/Ethnolinguistic_map_of_China_1983.png
So tell me what territory should be returned to whom? BTW are sovereign states free to ally for their defense with other sovereign states once you have done all your mapping?



Quoting Apollodorus
Anyway, as I said, I don’t see what you’re contributing to this discussion because all you seem to be doing is regurgitate the NATO Troll’s anti-Russian propaganda and disinformation.


What would be the propaganda and disinformation I’m regurgitating, can you quote me by any chance?

Quoting Apollodorus
I think even the blind can see that this is a war between Russia and NATO. You’re trying to reduce it to an issue between Putin and Ukraine in order to deflect attention from the West’s involvement and criminal culpability.


How on earth am I trying to do that, if the first comment to your post is an argument to support Western involvement in this war between Russia and Ukraine?! What criminal activities are you referring to?! What are your evidences of the Western involvement in such criminal activities?

Quoting Apollodorus
According to CIA-NATO disinformation and lies, NATO after the Cold War expanded because Eastern European countries like Poland were so scared of Russia that they begged NATO to allow them to join. However, Poland may have had other reasons for joining, such as financial assistance. The real question for the purposes of this discussion is not why Poland joined but why NATO thought it was in its own interest to invite Poland to join. Not what a small country like Poland wanted, but what the already huge NATO Empire wanted.


Sure it’s called “mutual interest”. And if Russia has security concerns at its borders, this is true also for other countries like Poland which as Russia has a long story of foreign invasions (including from URSS and Germany). So given the genesis of NATO, Poland seems to be the right place for the US to stay.

Quoting Apollodorus
NATO wanted to expand eastward because Russia’s western borders had moved further east, leaving a vacuum that NATO, as an imperialist and expansionist organization, was eager to fill. Moreover, the very fact that NATO moved its defense line eastward means (1) that NATO continued to regard Russia as enemy even after Russia had ceased to be Communist, and (2) that NATO had no intention to stop expanding eastward. The fact is that contrary to CIA-NATO propaganda and lies, NATO is not some philanthropic organization whose expansion is somehow driven by the needs of countries that apply for membership. Its expansion is driven by its own agenda which is to promote the interests of its creators, America and its client-state Britain.


Sorry to interrupt your daily intellectual masturbation over CIA-NATO hypocrisy (yuck!), but client states might also have their self-aware and self-serving interest in being client states of great powers.


Quoting Apollodorus
As in the case of Poland, CIA-NATO disinformation and lies claim that Ukraine wanted to join NATO. But this doesn’t mean that this is not what NATO itself wanted, nor does it exclude the possibility that Ukraine wanted to join because it was being encouraged or pushed to do so by NATO.


We can’t exclude it sure. That’s why we need evidences, right? To discriminate imagined possibilities from reality.


Quoting Apollodorus
Indeed, steps to incorporate Ukraine into the NATO Empire were already taken at the NATO summit of July 1990, held in London, when NATO leaders proposed cooperation with all countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
It is important to carefully follow what happened next:
24 August 1991, Ukraine declared itself independent from the Soviet Union.
8 December 1991, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, which had been the original founding members of the Soviet Union, established the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to replace the Soviet Union.
20 December 1991, NATO created the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in which Ukraine and the other CIS countries were invited to participate.
So, we can see that NATO had planned to incorporate Ukraine (1) even before Ukraine became officially independent, and (2) at a time when Ukraine had willingly joined Russia and Belarus in the Commonwealth of Independent States!


Holy shit, after more than 30 years Ukraine didn’t join yet?! Me CIA-NATO bot transformer very disappointed! :(

Quoting Apollodorus
But Crimea itself remained a major problem. The Soviet Union under Khrushchev had “gifted” Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. This may have made sense for inter-Soviet administrative purposes, as Crimea was geographically closer to Kiev than to Moscow. However, in May 1992, after Ukraine’s independence, the Russian parliament declared the “gifting” of Crimea to Ukraine illegitimate.


Holy shit, after 38 years Russia and not the Soviet Union realised Khrushchev was drunk that day?! How come?! That’s really a totally inconceivable not-like-usual-Russian-propaganda narrative twist, right?!

Quoting Apollodorus
More important, and what CIA-NATO propaganda attempts to cover up, Crimea which at the time had an ethnic-Russian majority and a small Ukrainian minority, had started its own movement of independence from Ukraine. [b]Already on July 16, 1990, Crimea had declared its state sovereignty. On January 20, 1991, i.e., prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) and even prior to Ukrainian independence, the Crimeans voted to become an autonomous republic as they had been before being “gifted” to Ukraine, and this was granted by the Soviet leadership.[/b]
Therefore, when Ukraine became independent, Crimea remained an autonomous republic within Ukraine. Moreover, it continued its efforts to become independent.


Dude, no need to regurgitate history trivia you read somewhere else, just give us the link. Probably you got it from here: https://www.refworld.org/docid/469f38ec2.html
Anyway here some notes you might consider:
  • Jul 16, 1990 the Ukrainian SSR (NOT CRIMEA!) declares its state sovereignty. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_State_Sovereignty_of_Ukraine
  • Jan 20, 1991 A referendum is held in the Crimea on restoring autonomy to the region AND a sovereign Ukraine accept the results: indeed Feb 12, 1991 The Ukrainian Supreme Soviet restores the Crimea as an autonomous republic within the borders of the Ukraine.
  • Dec 1, 1991 A referendum is held in the Ukraine on independence simultaneously with presidential elections. Leonid Kravchuk is elected the first president of the Ukraine, and the independence of the Ukraine is supported by the referendum. However, Crimean support for Ukrainian independence was the lowest of all of the Ukraine (only 54% in favor) with very low turnout (65%). Support not only for Russia, but for the Soviet Union, is extremely high in Crimea as much of the population is related to the Soviet military and the Black Sea Fleet.
  • Jan 1992 The Russian Foreign Ministry and parliament condemn the transfer of Crimea to the Ukraine in 1954. So Russians realised after Ukraine declared sovereignty and independence, and got international recognition (Russians included! https://www.nytimes.com/1991/12/03/world/ex-communist-wins-in-ukraine-yeltsin-recognizes-independence.html), that the transfer of Crimea to Ukraine was worth of being condemned. So timely and yet not so timely, right?




Quoting Apollodorus
On February 26 1992, the Crimean parliament renamed the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Republic of Crimea, and on May 5 it proclaimed self-government and enacted a separate constitution to that of Ukraine. Ukraine dismissed Crimea’s action as illegal and although the Crimean parliament created the post of President of Crimea in 1993, in 1998 Crimea was pressured by Ukraine to rename itself Autonomous Republic of Crimea.


Yet oddly you didn’t say this time: “we can’t exclude the possibility that Crimean effort to become fully independent from Ukraine was being encouraged or pushed to do so by Russia”.



Quoting Apollodorus
IMO the historical facts show (1) that Crimea had never been Ukrainian (even in demographic terms) in the first place


Historical facts show that Crimea has never ever been a national sovereign state neither prior to Soviet Union, nor during the Soviet Union, nor after the Soviet Union! And that the Crimea region was since 1954 under Soviet rule transferred to the administrative control of Ukraine and part of its territory until the end of Soviet Union, then Crimea was under the control of Ukraine and part of its territory until Russian annexation. The declaration of sovereignty by Crimea authorities was illegal under the only sovereign, independent and internationally acknowledged authority that counted: Ukraine!
Moreover by signing 2 treaties with Ukraine, Russia acknowledged territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine (which by constitution establishes that Crimea is integral part of its territory)!



Quoting Apollodorus
(2) that Crimea saw itself as a separate state from Ukraine after Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union (and even before)


BTW which Crimea are you talking about? Prior to or after the Russification of Crimea by the soviets? Shouldn’t your Utopian principle mapping territories with ethnic groups, consider the reinstatement of all the non-Russian minorities that have been expelled from Crimea? And why on earth are you hiding the still ongoing oppression of non-Russian minorities in Crimea (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2016/578003/EXPO_STU(2016)578003_EN.pdf)?! Don’t they have a right for a sovereign state within the sovereign state of Crimea within the sovereign state of Russia, after the Russian annexation?!
Since we are at it, let me also remind you that “the principle of self-determination of peoples” you so passionately defend, is a super Western international law principle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination), arguably stemming from American propaganda (“The American Revolution of the 1770s has been seen as the first assertion of the right of national and democratic self-determination[/b], because of the explicit invocation of natural law, the natural rights of man, as well as the consent of, and sovereignty by, the people governed; these ideas were inspired particularly by John Locke's enlightened writings of the previous century”) if not even Atlanticist propaganda (“In 1941 Allies of World War II declared the Atlantic Charter and accepted the principle of self-determination. In January 1942 twenty-six states signed the Declaration by United Nations, which accepted those principles. The ratification of the United Nations Charter in 1945 at the end of World War II placed the right of self-determination into the framework of international law and diplomacy.”[/I]). So, to share an old philosophical piece of wisdom, [i]gn?thi seauton b/c you might be a CIA-NATO bot that spreads CIA-NATO propaganda without being aware, and even more than I am!

Quoting Apollodorus
(3) that the Crimea issue was not created by the current Russian state and even less by Putin who wasn’t even in power at the time.


As a disputed territory between Russia and Ukraine, absolutely yes Russia created the problem starting from January 1992. I’m not denying that Russians had historical and geopolitical plausible reasons to do this and design their propaganda accordingly. But if Russia didn’t complain or push (as the rest of the chronology in that link abundantly shows), the case of Crimea could have been likely analogous to the case Catalunya (with its independent movements and the marvelous adventures of President Puigdemont).

Quoting Apollodorus
So, basically, you haven’t got a leg to stand on … :smile:


I can facepalm at your blunders also from my seat though. All you were able to prove so far is that ethno-historical considerations are relevant to understand and legitimise, and I never ever questioned it. Indeed they make us understand, at least in part, why Crimea is fiercely disputed between Russia and Ukraine and why it’s key also in the negotiation. However my point is exclusively but decisively that, contrary to your views, they are neither the only determinant factor to understand the current status of Crimea nor the only or even the primary source to assess related legitimacy claims. Indeed when it’s matter of sovereignty international relations (international order, treaties and power relations) are essentials to understand and justify historical events (also concerning the Western involvement in this war!). Or let’s say that this is, at least, part of my ideological view because saying that this is what history shows it would be an overkill, and you have already humiliated yourself enough, right?


To summarise: strawman arguments, preventive strawman arguments, surreal accusations (I doubt you even have a clue how internet bots work), question begging nonsensical challenges, misread/misunderstood/filtered historical trivia & news, and intellectual masturbation over evil NATO (yuck!). Did I miss anything else from your cringy repertoire of intellectual failures, dude?


































Christoffer May 13, 2022 at 15:14 #694724
Quoting ssu
Then the possibility of a civil war loomed in the background.


The tensions and internal battles during the collapse of the Soviet Union was close to starting a civil war. If there's a collapse of Russia happening due to the current war, then the outcome might not be as good as it was back then, it could very well escalate to a full civil war. This is what I meant with revolution, it could lead to it because the Soviet Union's internal conflict had much more to do with the different nations breaking off from Russia while now, the possible internal conflict has no borders to break. So it could lead to a massive overhaul of the entire nation.

Of course speculative, but it only requires part of the military to be fed up with Putin and his minions to escalate it into a deadly divided nation and we've already seen a lot of Russian soldiers who deserted turning their backs on Russia.
Jamal May 13, 2022 at 15:48 #694745
Reply to Christoffer A civil war in Russia would very likely be characterized by national conflicts, since 22 of the country’s federal subjects (constituent divisions) are republics representing different ethnicities. Several of those, like Chechnya, are predominantly Muslim and haven’t always got along with Moscow.
Benkei May 13, 2022 at 17:52 #694800
Quoting Olivier5
First thing first, Russia has to be defeated and repelled from Ukraine. Once that is done, and I have no doubt it will be, the situation will be different: Russia will need security guarantees against a victorious Ukraine; and Belarus may become independent.


Eh...?

You do like your death tolls high. What a surprise.
SophistiCat May 13, 2022 at 18:50 #694833
Anna:Putin has publicly demonstrated many times that he basically does not understand what a discussion is. Especially a political one – according to Putin, a discussion of the inferior and the superior shouldn’t take place. And if the subordinate allows it, then he is an enemy. Putin behaves in this way not deliberately, not because he is a tyrant and despot ad natum – he was simply brought up in ways that the KGB drilled in him, and he considers this system ideal, which he has publicly stated more than once. And therefore, as soon as someone disagrees with him, Putin categorically demands "to stop the hysteria." (Hence he refuses to participate in pre-election debates, which are not in his nature, he is not capable of them, he does not know how to make a dialog. He is an exclusive monologist. According to the military model the subordinate must keep silent. A superior talks, but in the mode of a monologue, and then all the inferiors are obliged to pretend that they agree. A sort of ideological hazing, sometimes turning into physical destruction and elimination as it happened to Khodorkovsky).


Quoting unenlightened
This has the ring of truth. And if it is true, there is nothing to be done short of complete military defeat at any cost. It certainly makes more sense than the cries of delusion, stupidity, and pathology that are projected rather too easily in his general direction.


A striking illustration of how Putin talks to his underlings was this bizarre televised spectacle of his Security Council meeting right before the war, in which he sat them all down in front of him like children, in a semicircle, and had them publicly pledge their allegiance and complicity to the course, while scolding and humiliating those who went off script.

User image
link
Olivier5 May 13, 2022 at 19:05 #694841
This is a piece on Crimea lifted from Roussky Reporter, an independent Russian magazine. I landed on it through Courrier International, a French weekly translating articles from the world press. Their sources are well chosen, and their wesite includes a description of each of the media sources they use, its ownership, political position, etc. Here is the entry for Roussky Reporter:

[I]As its name suggests, this magazine emphasizes reporting. Created in 2007 by the Expert group to be a “newspaper to read and look at”, its ambition is to “recount the life of modern societies” using quality texts and the work of the best photographers. Despite a certain notoriety validated by numerous prizes, it ceased its weekly rhythm from 2015 and only appears twice a month in the best of cases. Their website has its own editorial staff.[/i]

All this prefacing to say this is a Russian source, but a fairly decent one. The article dates back to March 2019, before the war when some free reporting was still allowed.

The text was originally posted with a photograhy portfolio, that one can see here or here.



Crimea as an Island
Stanislava Novgorodtseva

“Alas, how small is an individual before the inexorable laws of history,” wrote Vasily Aksenov in the novel The Island of Crimea.

As a child, Crimea seemed to me a sacred, apolitical place. An island of original mythology with traces of ancient civilizations. Here I saw the sea for the first time. The annual vacation trips were something like visiting your beloved grandmother - time free from worries.

The Crimean peninsula has formed its own identity in the melting pot of peoples. At different times, Tauris, Cimmerians, Scythians, Romans, Goths, Huns, Greeks lived on its territory. In 1783, this place of intersection of different religions and cultures became part of the Russian Empire and was granted the glory of a royal residence.

With the advent of the USSR, Crimea was redesigned from a vacation spot for the elite into a resort accessible to the Soviet people. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the peninsula was part of Ukraine, and in March 2014 it was included in Russia. Since that moment, Crimea has been at the center of the main political conflicts of the last five years. New realities have made adjustments to my relationship with the place. A new political layer has wedged into the world of childhood and local mythology.

Politics took a tough toll on families: many quarreled, broke off relations with relatives on the other side of the Russian-Ukrainian border. Since 2014, according to official figures, 22,823 people have moved and registered in Ukraine as migrants - about 1 percent of the inhabitants of the peninsula, primarily Crimean Tatars and citizens whose fate was closely connected with Ukraine. Active migration in both directions is still observed, although crossing the border is increasingly difficult. Now there are relatively few “pro-Ukrainian citizens” in Crimea, but they exist, although they are afraid to openly express their position.

The division also affected the Crimean Tatar population - only a part of the elders accepted the new Russian government, appreciating the steps made towards them, including the recognition of property rights to the occupied land and buildings, and the assignment of state status to the Crimean Tatar language.

The zealous work of the security forces makes a depressing impression on the dissenting part of the people. Since 2014, 32 Crimeans have been convicted of participating in the activities of the Hizb ut-Tahrir organization, which is banned in Russia. In Ukraine, it was not banned, and some people suddenly found themselves outside the law. Since 2016, the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, which is boycotting the annexation of Crimea to Russia, has been classified among the extremist organizations.

Among the Russian population, pro-Russian sentiments and approval of the current government prevail: in the 2018 elections, Vladimir Putin was supported by 90% of the inhabitants of the peninsula. However, there is an artificial planting of military-patriotic themes in education, in the landscape, in the environment.

State institutions and private companies compete in loyalty to the new government: billboards, house facades and bus stops are decorated with paintings depicting the Russian president and the tricolor. Civil initiatives to hang the Russian flag outside the windows are also not uncommon. Souvenirs shops are dominated by the same symbols, complemented by aggressive anti-American rhetoric.

But even [Russian] patriots complain that the increase in wages and pensions after joining Russia does not compensate for the rise in prices. Until May 2018, many lived in hope: “They will build the Crimean bridge, and life will begin to improve, prices will even out.” Alas, this did not happen - this year the same interlocutors no longer make such optimistic forecasts.

Tourism is still important for Crimea, but another problem has been added to the lack of infrastructure and services - rising prices. Unregulated camping and tourism remain stably popular, but do not help replenish the budget. And in hotels and sanatoriums - either Russians who are not allowed to travel abroad, or nostalgic pensioners. Service is worse than in Sochi, and the cost is higher than in Turkey.

There is a sense of isolation – there is no Sberbank, VTB, MTS, or other large companies in Crimea; they fear sanctions. And even the Crimean football teams have to play matches exclusively with each other. Small businesses also suffered; few were able to quickly reorganize themselves, taking into account Russian legislation and a rigid taxation system.

Another serious problem is the drought in the steppe. The energy blockade by Ukraine has somehow been overcome, but there is still an acute shortage of water. And first of all, the Crimean Tatars, who are engaged in agriculture here, suffer. When I saw how in the summer plastic containers with water were placed every 10 meters in the fields, I assumed that this was an irrigation system, but the owners of the fields explained: these are water dispensers for birds and rodents. Animals also suffer from drought and, in desperation, gnaw through irrigation hoses.

According to official reports, significant funds are being allocated to help the steppe regions, but there are no visible improvements yet.

Sanctions and individual restrictions on the territory of Crimea have reinforced the feeling of its isolation. The country of my childhood has been transformed into an isolated island somewhere on the map of Russia.

https://expert.ru/russian_reporter/2019/04/kryim-kak-ostrov/
Apollodorus May 13, 2022 at 19:07 #694844
Reply to Punshhh

Well, if I understood correctly, you live in the UK. Do you honestly see any Brits worrying about being nuked by Russia? Or Americans?

The impression I’m getting is that it isn’t ordinary people who are worrying, but NATO and its political collaborators, and that is because they fear that it’s expansionist plans might be frustrated by Russia.

The way I see it, the new Cold War is the result of the NATO Empire’s insistence on permanent expansion.

That’s precisely why NATO has been preparing for a conventional war with Russia, and why the Ukrainians were so well-prepared. I’ve no idea where the Russians had gotten their intelligence from, but they were obviously surprised to see how well-prepared the Ukrainians were. And of course they were well-prepared, as they had been trained by the US and UK.

Boris, for example, has his own agenda. He urgently needs some new trade deals to kick-start the economy. So, he’s trying to show what a good boy he is by sucking up to Biden and the EU (as well as to energy and defense corporations) and pushing for escalation in Ukraine.

Reply to neomac

Ukrainian minorities in Crimea “have been expelled by Russia”?! I bet you were there (in your dreams) and you saw it with your own eyes (or optic sensors)! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Crimea is a Russian-majority territory that has never been Ukrainian (there has NEVER been a Ukrainian majority there!) and that had a special status even within Ukraine. The Minsk Protocol itself was intended to give special status to areas of Donetsk and Luhansk:

Decentralisation of power, including through the adoption of the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts".


This shows that the contested territories were NOT regarded as the same as the rest of Ukraine, even by the Ukrainian government, and certainly not by Crimeans and Donbas Russians.

In any case, if you think I’m going to waste my time with your evidence-free drivel, you’re seriously mistaken.

Reply to Christoffer Reply to ssu

It makes no sense whatsoever to say that countries shouldn’t belong to their rightful owners. In fact, it contradicts your own position if you care to think about it! :grin:

As for “accepting the status quo”, why doesn’t NATO lead by example and stick to its own borders?

1. There are many different kinds of inter-state borders. If a country is an island, for example, then it has very clear borders.

Many countries don’t have clearly visible borders. For example, Finland’s border with Russia is not demarcated by any natural feature and has no proper barrier that divides the two countries.

2. Second, borders are drawn by people, not by laws. A lot of borders were drawn by force of arms, irrespective of any laws. Some were drawn by foreign powers or under pressure from foreign powers.

Finland’s border with Russia was drawn by Sweden and Russia, not by the Finns. Germany’s border with Poland was drawn by Russia, America, and Britain, not by the Germans, etc. Many borders in Africa, the Near East, and other parts of the world were drawn by the British Empire without the locals being asked.

3. Third, the purpose of law is to enforce justice. If a border drawn “by the law” is unjust to the inhabitants of the territory in question, then it is not a just border and the law that imposes it is not a just law.

4. Fourth, borders are not permanent. They change, especially when the concerned populations see them as unjust. This is precisely why so many border-related conflicts exist all over the world.

5. Fifth, it is not unheard of for territories occupied by one population to be returned to their original inhabitants.

For example, Australia has returned some land to the Aboriginal population:

More than 160,000 hectares of land in Cape York has been handed back to the Eastern Kuku Yalanji people in a historic announcement today by the Palaszczuk Government and Traditional Owners.
Today’s handback marks the government returning more than 3.8 million hectares of land back to Traditional Owners on Cape York, with 2.3 million hectares to be jointly-managed by our rangers and the community.


160,000 hectares returned on path to reconciliation – Queensland Government

In 2019, the Tuluwat Island in California was returned to Native Americans:

Historic U.S. island return to native tribe 'path forward' for other land transfers - Reuters

Similar projects exist in Latin America and elsewhere. These are relatively small but significant and trend-setting examples of how the principle that every country should belong to its rightful owners can be, and is, applied when there is a will to uphold justice.

Unfortunately, NATO and its cheerleaders who are stuck in the 50's and 60's don’t seem to be interested in justice but in promoting American Imperialism.

American imperialism - Wikipedia

Moreover, your favorite neofascist NATO dictatorship, TURKEY, has said that it doesn’t want Finland and Sweden to join NATO because they are guesthouses for terrorists:

Moreover, the Scandinavian countries, unfortunately, are almost like guesthouses for terrorist organizations. PKK, DHKP-C are nested in the Netherlands and Sweden. I go further, they also take part in the parliaments there. It is not possible for us to have a positive look


Turkey not in favor of Finland, Sweden’s admission to NATO: Erdo?an - Hürriyet Daily News

A bit embarrassing that, but as they say, "what goes around comes around" .... :wink:
Olivier5 May 13, 2022 at 19:31 #694859
A Russian naval support ship, the “Vsevolod Bobrov”, is being towed from the area of Snake Island after it caught fire, spokesperson for the Odessa regional military administration said on Thursday.

“As a result of the actions of our military sailors, the logistics ship Vsevolod Bobrov, one of the newest in the Russian fleet, [caught fire]. They say that it is [being towed] to Sevastopol,” the Ukrinform news agency quoted spokesperson Serhii Bratchuk as saying.
Olivier5 May 13, 2022 at 19:33 #694860
Quoting Benkei
You do like your death tolls high.


I just want an aggression punished.
jorndoe May 13, 2022 at 20:06 #694880
Reply to Wayfarer, and it's ruined an impressive amount of Ukraine.
Don't have the figure handy; some engineering firm made some estimates a while back.
I doubt the destroying party is willing to pay up.


@Apollodorus, instead of all your quote mining and kooky comments, you should try spending some of that time drawing up connections between and activities of these people (incomplete list):

• Dmitry Gorelov • Nikolay Tokarev • Sergei Ivanov
• Leonid Tyagachyov • Viktor Ivanov • Nikolai Patrushev
• Viktor Medvedchuk • Viktor Zolotov • Alexander Bortnikov
• Yakov Kedmi • Alexei Sedov • Sergey Chemezov
• Yury Kovalchuk • Dmitry Rogozin

Not an oligarch list as such, but they're in "The Club". Hic sunt Dracones.


Quoting Olivier5
want an aggression punished


Deterred at least (apropos) :up:

magritte May 13, 2022 at 20:44 #694884
Quoting Benkei
It's just a means for the US to bring the fight to the doorstep of other countries, without risking their own resources.


That's seen as a problem in the US. We don't want to defend other countries for their sake anymore. We do not want to deploy more than the 100,000 US troops we already have in Europe to guard Finland or Sweden. Public opinion here thinks that Europe should rearm adequately to defend it's own frontiers when it comes to Russia. If you want to strengthen NATO then you all better hurry before the next major US elections.
Wittgenstein May 13, 2022 at 21:25 #694901
Putin should save Ukraine from western degeneracy
Baden May 13, 2022 at 23:39 #694952
Reply to Wittgenstein

Make an argument if you have one and no more silly videos, please.
Benkei May 14, 2022 at 04:52 #695018
Quoting Olivier5
I just want an aggression punished.


Maybe try to keep your feelings out of it. The only people getting punished are civilians and soldiers. Putin will sit on his throne regardless. And where was your bloodthirst when Iraq happened or any of the 300 illegal wars the US has fought? I bet you ineffectually protested it and then after the fact bleat about the criminal court, if at all. Why don't you put your feet where your mouth is, pick up a gun and walk to Ukraine and "punish" some Russians while making a target of whatever building or people you're standing next to? Why must others do the punishing and dying on behalf of your misplaced principles? Ukraine had already signaled it wants peace, its prepared to give independence to the Donbass region but it's not getting the security guarantees from the West that it wants. I asked you how a peace deal would look like and I get a repetition of what isn't possible. So one of the guys who went on about "Ukrainian agency" prefers to not pursue the peace Ukrainians want because he feels Russia has to be punished. Fantastically consistent of you!

When Apartheid ended, reconciliation instead of punishment led to peace. When Germany was punished after WWI it led to WWII. Maybe think about the cost before pretending principles are worth shit.
Agent Smith May 14, 2022 at 07:32 #695061
[quote=Benkei]Maybe try to keep your feelings out of it.[/quote]

:smile:

Olivier5 May 14, 2022 at 08:10 #695076
Quoting Benkei
Maybe try to keep your feelings out of it.


If you ask what I like, I'll respond. So, I shall leave my feelings out of it when you leave my feelings out of it...

Try and think logically, when you post. Don't accuse others of something you started, for instance. Otherwise it looks like you are just playing games.
M777 May 14, 2022 at 09:15 #695090
When some people don't want to aid Ukraine, here's a picture that comes to mind.
Once again, if you don't want to send howitzers to Ukraine, chances are you will be sending troops to Poland.

User image
Benkei May 14, 2022 at 10:19 #695108
Reply to Olivier5 I didn't ask what you "liked" I asked you what a peaceful solution would look like if no country is willing to give Ukraine the security assurances it's asked for. Ukraine is willing to part with the Donbas, if it gets assurances that can be backed up by other countries that that's where it stops. WIthout those assurances, they're afraid Russia will conquer it as a salami, one slice at a time.

So there's a conundrum there but both Draghi and Macron expressed the need to pursue peace instead of "bleeding the Russians". So what would a solution to that conundrum look like? That was my question.

Quoting M777
When some people don't want to aid Ukraine, here's a picture that comes to mind.
Once again, if you don't want to send howitzers to Ukraine, chances are you will be sending troops to Poland.


Even Hitler didn't act in a vacuum. It's well established that the peace enforced after WWI was onerous on the Germans which contributed to the circumstances allowing HItler to rise to power.

Here to NATO encroachment, contrary to promises made, has been a contributing factor (and in my view decisive). Especially when last year NATO once again expressed Ukraine could join, only to make u-turn quickly after the start of the war that it would never join, which makes you wonder as to the purpose of that NATO declaration to begin with. It's not as if war wasn't a likelihood. Then there was the proxy war going on in Ukraine for 20 years already, which also played a role. So, perhaps we shouldn't be contributing to higher likelihoods of war to begin with and when there is war think about how to extricate ourselves from it instead of arguing for the start of WWIII in which nuclear weapons are now part of the arsenal of the aggressor.
Olivier5 May 14, 2022 at 11:34 #695129
Quoting Benkei
So what would a solution to that conundrum look like? That was my question.


I gave you my answer already -- and then you veered into emotional language. Let's try again, slower.

1) The conundrum you described has no solution that you or I can see. That'd be why you call it a conundrum.

2) If no country is willing to give Ukraine security assurances, it goes without saying that Ukrainians will have to try and find their own indigenous solutions to their own security.

3) One way to do that is simply to repel the Russian army back into Russia. If Ukraine can achieve this, then it will have proven that it can ensure its own security. And Russia likely won't try to invade them again for a few decades.

4) The problem then becomes the security and stability of Russia itself. This is why Macron and others are reminding us all that we need to keep channels of communication open with Russia, and to make sure Ukraine doesn't push its advantage beyond the liberation of Ukraine. A victorious Ukraine, armed to the teeth, could also become a destabilizing factor in the future. Zelenskyy won't be here forever. Wars often stroke extreme nationalism.
neomac May 14, 2022 at 12:13 #695137
[quote=“Apollodorus;694844"]Ukrainian minorities in Crimea “have been expelled by Russia”?! I bet you were there (in your dreams) and you saw it with your own eyes (or optic sensors)! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
Crimea is a Russian-majority territory that has never been Ukrainian (there has NEVER been a Ukrainian majority there!) and that had a special status even within Ukraine.[/quote]

Still rofling, dude?! Still chopping conveniently my quotes to suggest claims I never made?!
Still countering objections I never raised, nor implied, nor suggested, nor even need to raise to make my point against your claims?! Really?!
This was my question to you, read carefully (since you do not have optic sensors, I bolded the salient parts for you): “Shouldn’t your Utopian principle mapping territories with ethnic groups, consider the reinstatement of all the non-Russian minorities that have been expelled from Crimea?”. In other words I was questioning your Utopian principle wrt the demographic history of Crimea. Do you know there is an ethnic group indigenous to Crimea (so indigenous they got labelled with the word “Crimea” in their name https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars)? Do you know they constituted the ethnic majority until the progressive Russian colonisation by the Russian empire in the late 19th century (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Ethnic_Population_of_Crimea_18th%E2%80%9321st_century.png, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De-Tatarization_of_Crimea)? And that to ensure a Russian majority in Crimea the soviets had to expel other non-Russian minorities, in great part Crimean Tatars (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars)? How about their ongoing oppression by the Russian imperialists (https://newlinesmag.com/essays/the-suffering-of-crimeas-tatars/)?! You didn’t say anything in defense of their rights to own Crimea, dude! They are waiting for you to defend them from Russian imperialism already! That’s your anti-imperialist job, right?!




frank May 14, 2022 at 12:17 #695138
Quoting Olivier5
Wars often stroke extreme nationalism.


I imagine this invasion has created hatred for Russia that will persist in Ukraine for the next 50 years at least.
Olivier5 May 14, 2022 at 12:56 #695149
Quoting frank
I imagine this invasion has created hatred for Russia that will persist in Ukraine for the next 50 years at least.


I agree, and there lies a danger, long term.

In his poem Salut à l’Empereur dedicated to emperor Nicholas II of Russia, French poet José Maria de Heredia sang about "... the distant era / When Russians and French in a contest without hate, / Foreseeing the future, already mixed their blood."

(... [I]l'époque lointaine / Où Russes et Français en un tournoi sans haine, / Prévoyant l'avenir, mêlaient déjà leur sang.[/i])

His mellifluous verses allude to the Napoleonic wars, depicting them as heroic but not hateful. And I guess it's true that the Russians and the French never hated one another in 1812 or in the decades after, in spite of the terrible destruction meted by this "contest without hate".

The same cannot be said about the Ukrainians, for sure, and understandably. There are already credible reports of summary execution and torture of Russian POW by Ukrainian forces. And vice versa too of course.
Isaac May 14, 2022 at 13:14 #695156
Quoting Olivier5
Let's try again, slower.


I can assure you, the only one failing to follow the exchange at normal speed is you. @Benkei asked you what your solution was. You gave your answer (listed at 3 in your recent reply)...

Quoting Olivier5
3) One way to do that is simply to repel the Russian army back into Russia. If Ukraine can achieve this, then it will have proven that it can ensure its own security. And Russia likely won't try to invade them again for a few decades.


...and @Benkei asked (rhetorically) why you'd chosen the most high risk, high damage option there. You replied that you'd chosen it because you want to see Putin's aggression punished, which is a) stupid - Putin is not in Ukraine, so he won't be punished, and b) callous - thousands will die in the pursuit of your schadenfreude.

The question here - the only one that's really been relevant despite all the avoidance of it - is whether your (3) is the only choice, the least harmful choice, the most ethical choice etc. No one is remotely confused about why we're faced with such a choice.
Olivier5 May 14, 2022 at 13:20 #695157
Quoting Isaac
The question here - the only one that's really been relevant despite all the avoidance of it - is whether your (3) is the only choice, the least harmful choice, the most ethical choice etc. No one is remotely confused about why we're faced with such a choice.


In my reasoning, 3) follows logically from 1) and 2). So it is a logical necessity, not something I want, but what the situation as described by @Benkei leads to. What's "in the cards" so to speak.

EDIT: It's also the context of the discussion, i.e. the scenario evoked by Macron:

Quoting Olivier5
For him, despite the delivery of heavy weapons to Kyiv, there is no question of allowing the conflict to drag on with the idea of weakening Russia. The priority remains, if possible, to re-establish Ukraine within its historical borders, or at least within those of before February 24, the date of the Russian invasion.

Mr. Macron considers that it is up to the Ukrainians to determine their war aims and the conditions for a possible resumption of negotiations with Moscow ...


IOW, Macron is not talking of an immediate ceasefire. He's taking a longer view, and assuming that Ukraine will turn this war around with the heavy artillery now supplied to them, he is talking of how far should Ukraine push its advantage: up to the pre-February borders, or beyond, up to the internationally recognized borders, i.e. inclusive of Crimea and Dombas?
Isaac May 14, 2022 at 15:06 #695178
Quoting Olivier5
In my reasoning, 3) follows logically from 1) and 2). So it is a logical necessity


Pathetic.

Quoting Olivier5
One way to do that is


Olivier5 May 14, 2022 at 15:31 #695189
Reply to Isaac Can you propose an alternative, or are you pathetic too?
Isaac May 14, 2022 at 16:23 #695212
Quoting Olivier5
Can you propose an alternative


What do you think we've been discussing all this time? The primary objective should be to end the war. Putin is not (yet) demanding anything which was not de facto the case already and so Ukraine could save thousands of lives at very little cost by agreeing to those terms.

We ought lobby our governments to take negotiations seriously, reduce the rhetorical force of Putin's propaganda, and invest in grass roots development in both Ukraine and Russia to tackle the root causes of the extremism on both sides which have opened the door to this conflict.

Russia should be sanctioned (properly - meaning oil exports, not sporting events and medicine).

Putin would be in a far worse situation internationally if he proposed terms which he then broke, plus he'd have a face-saving way out.

The trouble is, people like you are more concerned with not allowing Putin to save face than you are about dead Ukrainians.

Quoting Olivier5
or are you pathetic too?


What was pathetic was your attempt to make your poor argument sound like it was @Benkei's slowness. The point was simple and clearly made, it revealed quite well what was obvious from the start - that your primary concern is some hollywood style denunement, not welfare.
Olivier5 May 14, 2022 at 16:37 #695219
Quoting Isaac
Putin is not (yet) demanding anything which was not de facto the case already


When did Putin make any precise demand, and what are these terms, pray tell?

Quoting Isaac
We ought lobby our governments to take negotiations seriously, reduce the rhetorical force of Putin's propaganda, and invest in grass roots development in both Ukraine and Russia to tackle the root causes of the extremism on both sides which have opened the door to this conflict.


That's what I am saying too.
Isaac May 14, 2022 at 16:47 #695226
Quoting Olivier5
When did Putin make any precise demand, and what are these terms, pray tell?


I'm not just repeating the same discussion again. It was thoroughly discussed. You and the other warmongers dismissed it as 'giving in'.

Quoting Olivier5
That's what I am saying too.


You haven't once mentioned the problem of the US refusing to take part in serious negotiations.

You've disagreed with me about the value of reducing the force of Putin's propaganda.

You've mentioned nothing about grassroots investment but have instead championed the exact opposite in the form of increasing IMF and European debt.
Olivier5 May 14, 2022 at 18:35 #695266
Quoting Isaac
It was thoroughly discussed. You and the other warmongers dismissed it as 'giving in'.


There's no peace offer on the table from Putin that I am aware of. If you want to make one up because you want to argue, go right ahead: tell us what a good peace deal would look like.

The rest of your post is equally false, invented.
M777 May 14, 2022 at 19:40 #695280
Quoting Benkei
So, perhaps we shouldn't be contributing to higher likelihoods of war to begin with and when there is war think about how to extricate ourselves from it


So what do you mean, let Putin take over Ukraine? How's about the Baltic, Poland? All Europe?

Anyways, reading the news from the front line it seems that Ukraine is doing pretty good and will win anyway, only without American weapons it might take some month longer and cost a few thousand lives more.
Benkei May 14, 2022 at 23:04 #695325
Quoting Olivier5
The conundrum you described has no solution that you or I can see.


I'd call that a failure of imagination.

How about demilitarised zones? Or be old school about it and have an exchange of hostages? What else does Putin care about other than whatever strategic value he sees here? What is that strategic value? Can it be reached through different means? Etc. There's a multitude of avenues to explore that can give us an idea of solutions.

I think it's more interesting to do that with someone who thinks differently than with someone who already agrees with me.
Benkei May 14, 2022 at 23:07 #695326
Quoting M777
So what do you mean, let Putin take over Ukraine? How's about the Baltic, Poland? All Europe?


The answer is in the past you didn't quote that went before it.
Apollodorus May 15, 2022 at 00:23 #695342
Reply to neomac

Dude, just because Tatars “constituted the ethnic majority until the Russian colonization by the Russian empire in the late 19th century”, that doesn’t mean that Crimea belongs to Ukraine!

And why on earth would I defend the Tatars’ rights to ”own” Crimea? Because they invaded it?

If the Tatars “own” Crimea for invading it, then they also “own” Ukraine, Russia, China, and many other countries in Asia and Europe! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

What you appear to conveniently forget - but only serves to expose your ignorance - is that Mongol presence in Crimea was the result of the Mongol invasions during the Middle Ages when they invaded and occupied Russia, Ukraine, Eastern and Central Europe, the Mid East, Persia, India, and China.

The Mongols murdered, raped, enslaved, and sold into slavery millions of innocent people and devastated extensive areas of Asia and Europe.

The Mongol Empire, by 1300 covered large parts of Eurasia. Historians regard the Mongol devastation as one of the deadliest episodes in history.


Mongol invasions and conquests – Wikipedia

The Mongol invaders lived off the export of slaves (Russians, Ukrainians, and other locals whom they kidnapped), and grain (produced by the subjugated local population). They turned Crimea into a gigantic slave market and they kept raiding Russian and other Slavic territories until Russia took Crimea back in 1783.

Crimean–Nogai slave raids in Eastern Europe - Wikipedia

So, NO, they don’t qualify as “rightful owners” of any territories they invaded and whose inhabitants they enslaved, though I wouldn't be surprised if YOU thought that they do.

Moreover, there was widespread popular resentment against Mongols in Russia, Ukraine, and other countries in the region due to the atrocities they had committed against the local populations. The memory of these atrocities was preserved for many centuries in chronicles, eye-witness accounts, and the folk stories and songs of many nations including Ukraine:

The ?res are burning beyond the river— The Tatars (Mongols) are dividing their captives. Our village is burnt. And our property plundered. Old mother is sabred. And my dear is taken into captivity.


- Ukrainian Folk Song, A. Kashchenko, Opovidannia pro slavne Viis’ko Zaporoz’ke nizove

Mongol atrocities against European populations, for example in Russia, have been corroborated by irrefutable archaeological evidence:

'RITUAL CRUELTY' Gruesome burial pit from ‘city drowned in blood’ reveals how Mongols butchered entire families during European invasion – The Sun

1. In expelling some of the Mongols of Crimea and resettling them in Central Asia from where they had invaded, Russia arguably redressed a historic injustice.
[Incidentally, many Germans were expelled from their traditional territories in Eastern Europe after WW2, and I don’t see NATO trolls complaining about that!]
2. The Mongols were later given the right to return.
3. The Mongols were of Central Asian descent, NOT “Ukrainians”.
4. Therefore, Russia did NOT create an ethnic-Russian majority in Crimea “by expelling Ukrainians”.

What really matters in the context of the current conflict is that Crimea has NEVER had an ethnic-Ukrainian majority. This is precisely why Crimea has had a special status even within Ukraine and why it has repeatedly sought to gain independence from Ukraine. Unfortunately, its efforts have been suppressed by your “freedom- and democracy-loving” Ukrainian government!

In any case, the bottom line is that NATO has failed to produce any evidence that Ukraine has more rights to Crimea than Russia has, least of all in demographic or ethnic terms.

But, as I said, I’m not going to keep repeating myself just because of some folks’ patent inability to read, think, or follow the discussion ….

Quoting ssu
Disagreement can lead to war, because assuming that the last treaties / peace agreements are wrong, that there's another "rightful owner", are accusations that can (and have lead) to wars.


Well, even if peace treaties “define who are the rightful owner of a territory”, you still need to identify the rightful owner, and in so doing you apply my principle! :grin:

Moreover, the vast majority of people I’ve spoken to, have no problem whatsoever accepting the principle that every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners.

Older generations that are stuck in the 50’s and 60’s may have problems grasping the soundness of the concept, but they don’t really matter as they’re on their way out anyway.

As shown in my previous post, the principle is in fact being applied already and has been applied many times in the past. It formed the basis of the decolonization movement, for example!

Of course, (1) it must be applied on the merits of each particular case and (2) no one says it must be applied by force of arms. But nor can force or threat of force (or violence) be ruled out.

If force or violence were to be ruled out in all cases, all historical and current independence movements that involved violence and that resulted in independence, would have to be deemed illegitimate and hence null and void. Too absurd for anyone to seriously contemplate IMO …. :smile:

America, for example, would be a British colony even now.

So, treaties do matter to some extent, but they need to be consistent with justice.

Quoting Olivier5
he is talking of how far should Ukraine push its advantage: up to the pre-February borders, or beyond, up to the internationally recognized borders, i.e. inclusive of Crimea and Dombas?


That was exactly what I was saying from the start. Recognizing some of Russia’s claims might have contributed to avoiding the conflict. The French and the Germans seem to have taken a more balanced approach because they understand Europe better than outsiders like the Brits and the Americans.

As things stand now, even if NATO win the war, (a) much of Ukraine will be destroyed, (b) it will take years to rebuild, and (c) there is no guarantee that the country won’t fall into the hands of criminal oligarchs again. So, we may well see a repeat of the 1990’s. And maybe even a WW3.

Quoting Olivier5
When Zelenskyy proposes direct talks between Putin and him, he's probly trolling Putin, knowing that his proposal is likely to be found offensive by the Megalomaniac in Chief.


I think Zelensky's statements need to be taken with a large grain of salt. Let's not forget that he's being advised by his British and American handlers.

But I doubt Putin is a real "megalomaniac". Russia is a big country and its leaders, like the leaders of other big countries, tend to think and act in ways that may appear "megalomaniac" to smaller countries. IMO, a more typical megalomaniac would be Napoleon and, to a lesser degree, Stalin and Hitler.

neomac May 15, 2022 at 02:51 #695358
Quoting Apollodorus
What you appear to conveniently forget - but only serves to expose your ignorance - is that Mongol presence in Crimea was the result of the Mongol invasions during the Middle Ages when they invaded and occupied Russia, Ukraine, Eastern and Central Europe, the Mid East, Persia, India, and China.

Quoting Apollodorus
If the Tatars “own” Crimea for invading it, then they also “own” Ukraine, Russia, China, and many other countries in Asia and Europe! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Quoting Apollodorus
So, NO, they don’t qualify as “rightful owners” of any territories they invaded and whose inhabitants they enslaved, though I wouldn't be surprised if YOU thought that they do.

Quoting Apollodorus
In expelling some of the Mongols of Crimea and resettling them in Central Asia from where they had invaded, Russia arguably redressed a historic injustice.


What?! Why on earth are you talking about Mongols?! Crimean Tatars are indigenous to Crimea, they are NOT Mongols!

[I]“[b]The Crimean Tatars were formed as a people in Crimea and are descendants of various peoples who lived in Crimea in different historical eras. The main ethnic groups that inhabited the Crimea at various times and took part in the formation of the Crimean Tatar people are Tauri, Scythians, Sarmatians, Alans, Greeks, Goths, Bulgars, Khazars, Pechenegs, Italians and Circassians. The consolidation of this diverse ethnic conglomerate into a single Crimean Tatar people took place over the course of centuries. The connecting elements in this process were the commonality of the territory, the Turkic language and Islamic religion.
An important role in the formation of the Crimean Tatar people belongs to the Western Kipchaks, known in historiography as Cumans. [/b]They became the consolidating ethnic group, which included all other peoples who inhabited the Crimea since ancient times. Kipchaks from the 11th-12th century began to settle the Volga, Azov and Black Sea steppes (which from then until the 18th century were called the Desht-i Kipchak – "Cumanian steppe"). Starting in the second half of the 11th century, they began actively moving to the Crimea. A significant number of the Cumans hid in the mountains of Crimea, fleeing after the defeat of the combined Cumanian-Russian troops by the Mongols and the subsequent defeat of the Cumanian proto-state formations in the Northern Black Sea region.
By the end of the 15th century, the main prerequisites that led to the formation of an independent Crimean Tatar ethnic group were created: the political dominance of the Crimean Khanate was established in Crimea, the Turkic languages (Cuman-Kipchak on the territory of the khanate) became dominant, and Islam acquired the status of a state religion throughout the Peninsula. By a preponderance Cumanian population of the Crimea acquired the name "Tatars", the Islamic religion and Turkic language, and the process of consolidating the multi-ethnic conglomerate of the Peninsula began, which has led to the emergence of the Crimean Tatar people.[19] Over several centuries, on the basis of Cuman language with a noticeable Oghuz influence, the Crimean Tatar language has developed.”[/i]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars#Origin


This sort of debate has also swirled around the issue of the ethnic identity of one of Europe's most misunderstood Muslim ethnic groups, the Crimean Tatars. While the Crimean Tatars (who were exiled in toto from their homeland from 1944±1989 by Stalin) see themselves as the indigenous people (korennoi narod) of their cherished peninsular homeland, with origins traceable to the pre-Mongol period, they have long been portrayed in western and Soviet sources as thirteenth-century ``Mongol invaders’’.
Source: Williams, Brian Glyn. 2001. "The Ethnogenesis of the Crimean Tatars. An Historical Reinterpretation"


[i]While the Crimean Tatars are traditionally described as descendents of the Golden Horde, the formation of this Turkic-speaking, Sunni Muslim people has pre-Mongol origins in the ancient, indigenous peoples of the Crimean peninsula. They believe their history begins with the tribes living
in Crimea in prehistoric and ancient times, including the Tavriis and Kimmerites, who occupied the peninsula from 2-1,000 B.C.E. (Kudusov 1995: 15). The Crimean Tatars therefore consider themselves one of the indigenous peoples, along with the Karaims and Krymchaks [/i]
Source: The Crimean Tatars’ Deportation and Return - GRETA LYNN UEHLING (2004)


Under the Imperial Russians, the Crimean Tatars, whose ethnic origins went back to the eleventh century Kipchaks and beyond to earlier south Crimean peoples, such as the Medieval Goths, Greeks and Italians, would begin to disintegrate as hundreds of thousands of the Tsarina’s new Muslim subjects fled Russian repression to the sheltering lands of the Ottoman sultans/caliphs. The majority of the Crimea’s Muslim Tatar peasants would ultimately leave the peninsula to par- take in hijra (migration to preserve Islam from oppression by the non- believer) to the Ottoman Empire.
Source: BRIAN GLYN WILLIAMS “The Crimean Tatars” (2016)




Quoting Apollodorus
Dude, just because Tatars “constituted the ethnic majority until the Russian colonization by the Russian empire in the late 19th century”, that doesn’t mean that Crimea belongs to Ukraine!


Dude, I was inquiring about who are the right owners of Crimea according to your Utopian principle (not mine!) mapping territories and ethnic groups (as the right owners). Not Ukranians all right, forget Ukrainians. Russians? No, Crimean Tatars were before the Russians! If not Crimean Tatars who else?



Quoting Apollodorus
What really matters in the context of the current conflict is that Crimea has NEVER had an ethnic-Ukrainian majority.

Quoting Apollodorus
In any case, the bottom line is that NATO has failed to produce any evidence that Ukraine has more rights to Crimea than Russia has, least of all in demographic or ethnic terms.


NATO didn't fail, they just do not need to justify the fact that Crimea belongs to Ukraine in ethnic terms.





Mikie May 15, 2022 at 03:30 #695361
Question for everyone on this thread: If you could avoid countless deaths and possibly nuclear war by allowing Russia to take Ukraine, would you?

The Russians aren’t the Nazis, after all, and Putin isn’t Hitler. It wouldn’t have been just, or fair — I don’t agree with Russia’s decision to invade — but a quick German victory in WW1 would also have been unfair; yet it would have prevented WWII if allowed to happen.

I’d like to prevent WWIII. So to answer my own question: yes.

Maybe one could argue doing so could have the unintended consequence of WWIII — perhaps even a greater chance of it. But I’ve yet to come across that argument.

I suppose it’s irrelevant now. But I think this question gets to the foundation for offered solutions.

A world under China or the USSR in the 20th would have been better than no world at all. Ditto Nazism. Many terrible regimes throughout history, and all eventually changed. I don’t see how anyone can justify a higher priority than survival of the species — without that, there is nothing else. Do we all agree with this or not? Is there a flaw in my logic?


M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:13 #695381
Reply to Benkei Anyways, it seems that the best solution would be demilitarization and denacification of Russian. So after Putin and his regime has gone, the west would agree to trade with Russia only after a liberal democracy in installed there.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:16 #695382
Quoting Xtrix
I’d like to prevent WWIII. So to answer my own question: yes.


Have you looked at battlefield map lately? Ukrainians are kicking ass even before getting any lendlease weapons. So what WWIII are you talking about?

And yes, there is a flaw in your logic, because according to it the most crazy dictator can get his hands on a nuke and rule the world by threatening to blow it up.

You might want to listen to this speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXBswFfh6AY&t=1435s
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 06:28 #695386
Reply to M777 GPS-guided artillery is on its way, which allows Ukraine to threaten supply lines. That might be the end of it. Let's hope so.

Quoting M777
So after Putin and his regime has gone, the west would agree to trade with Russia only after a liberal democracy in installed there.


LOL, because principles have obviously factored into "the West"'s decisions before. Tell me another fairy tale. We will trade with autocratic regimes if this is economically expedient.

We're not boycotting Israel, China or any number of Middle Eastern countries either.
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 06:33 #695387
Reply to Xtrix Our forefathers fought for a host of freedoms over centuries. To give them up is an insult and thankless, so I really don't agree. Mere survival, life without dignity is not enough. I don't believe Russia poses such an existential threat. China might eventually.
Streetlight May 15, 2022 at 06:37 #695388
It never ceases to amaze me how many people really, genuinely think that removing Putin from without is an actual, real life, not fairy tale, option.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:38 #695390
Quoting Benkei
Tell me another fairy tale. We will trade with autocratic regimes if this is economically expedient.


If the west is sanctioning Putin's Russia already, why do you assume it would lift those sanctions if Putin is replaced by an equal nutjob from his immediate circle?

Also oil and gas hugely depends on the infrastructure, i.e. pipeline, trade routs, etc. that's is one of the reasons it took and still is taking Europe so long to stop using Putin's gas. But once new infrastructure is in place and the old one is decommissioned, there's pretty much no coming back.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:41 #695393
Reply to Streetlight Does Putin look like a young energetic leader who has decades ahead? Or more like a very sick old man, who would be gone shortly in one way or the other?

User image

User image
Streetlight May 15, 2022 at 06:42 #695394
Reply to M777 Not sure how this is relevant. Half-dead murderous old men don't seem to really have an issue ruling anywhere one turns.
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 06:44 #695395
Reply to M777 A precondition for resuming trade and dropping sanctions will be an end to hostilities not regime change.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:46 #695397
Quoting Benkei
A precondition for resuming trade and dropping sanctions will be an end to hostilities not regime change.


Most world leaders said they don't want the regime to resume those hostilities in a couple of years. Also I don't see how Putin's regime could survive after ending hostilities, i.e. giving Crimea back.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:46 #695398
Quoting Streetlight
Half-dead murderous old men don't seem to really have an issue ruling anywhere one turns.


Time isn't on their side.
Streetlight May 15, 2022 at 06:48 #695399
Reply to M777 So what?

Seriously, anyone who talks about 'regime change' has learned nothing from the last twenty years and has brain rot.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:50 #695401
Reply to Streetlight Why? Swapping Putin with Khodorkovski or Navalniy and having him exchange nukes for food aid sounds like a good idea.
Streetlight May 15, 2022 at 06:52 #695403
Reply to M777 Sure it does, if you're a neocolonial idiot who has not paid attention to how every attempt as regime change by the West has led to tragedy and mass suffering.

In any case these are stupid hypotheticals not worth entertianing any more than asking what if snow white had eight rather than seven dwarves.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:53 #695404
Quoting Streetlight
Sure it does, if you're a neocolonial idiot who has not paid attention to how every attempt as regime change by the West has led to tragedy and mass suffering.


I don't care if there happens a 'mass suffering' in Russia, as long as their nukes are removed.
Streetlight May 15, 2022 at 06:54 #695405
Reply to M777 No, I suppose you don't. Because people like you are monsters.
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 06:56 #695406
Quoting Benkei
There's a multitude of avenues to explore that can give us an idea of solutions.


Okay then, go and speak to Putin and Zelenskyy about your non-descript 'avenues'... Don't waste my time if you don't have the slightest idea.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 06:57 #695407
Reply to Streetlight We just want to prevent Putin's regime from invading neighbor countries, how does it make us monsters? :D
Streetlight May 15, 2022 at 06:59 #695408
Reply to M777

Quoting M777
I don't care if there happens a 'mass suffering' in Russia


M777 May 15, 2022 at 07:03 #695409
Reply to Streetlight So? why should I care about supporters of Putin's regime. Hopefully at least through suffering they might learn something.
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 07:20 #695415
Reply to Olivier5 I get it, you're neither interested in peace nor analysis.
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 07:48 #695419
Reply to M777 Most? Not even most countries have imposed sanctions. But I agree that if Russia loses this war, which seems more likely by the day, Putin is likely not to survive politically. Whether that leads to meaningful change or just another figurehead remains to be seen. Hopes or on changes to a liberal democracy are fine, insistence really none of our business and dangerous to boot as recent 40 years of history have shown.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 07:55 #695421
Quoting Benkei
Hopes or on changes to a liberal democracy are fine, insistence really none of our business and dangerous


Probably there would be some intermediate form of governments would last a few week each. As for the government to be sustainable, it needs an army ( which is being decimated in Ukraine right now ) and money, which also won't be there without foreign trade.

So trade partners would ask for liberal democracy and giving up nukes, to which sooner or later Russia would have to agree.

It is our business, as to prevent Russia from attacking other countries, and I don't see how it is more dangerous than allowing Putin's regime to stay in power.
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 07:59 #695423
Quoting M777
So trade partners would ask for liberal democracy and giving up nukes, to which sooner or later Russia would have to agree.


Plenty of countries are and will continue to trade with Russia. Your view is western centric. The majority of countries have not changed their trade relations with Russia and for the time being Europe is not free of its energy dependence on Russia.
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 08:01 #695424
Reply to M777 Here's a map showing countries stances on sanctions btw

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/686699
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 08:06 #695425
Quoting Benkei
you're neither interested in peace nor analysis.


I'm not interested in pie-in-the-sky analysis, you got that right. It's facile to go around an internet board yelling "Peace!" It's harder to face reality, which is what I am trying to do.
M777 May 15, 2022 at 08:07 #695426
Quoting Benkei
The majority of countries have not changed their trade relations with Russia and for the time being Europe is not free of its energy dependence on Russia.


Europe is quickly moving in that direction and the map shows that countries that were buying Russian gan/oil and among the ones that are implying sanctions.
Being able to trade with some Paraguay, or even China for that matter, doesn't really help Russia much. They can buy stuff from China, but they need dollars/euros first, so they need to sell stuff to Europe.
Punshhh May 15, 2022 at 08:08 #695428
Reply to Xtrix
Question for everyone on this thread: If you could avoid countless deaths and possibly nuclear war by allowing Russia to take Ukraine, would you?


I sympathise with your proposition as a means to avoid destruction of the species. I suggest it is complicated when it comes to geopolitics and it is going well when there is a period of stability(Cold War for example). What is more important in reference to Russia is the moving away by Europe from buying Russian oil and gas. If Russia had taken Ukraine and the oil and gas revenue had continued to pour in then Putin’s strategy would be reinforced and he would then push on into other Eastern European states.

In geopolitical terms powerful, wealthy countries are fine when they are stable and cooperative with other powerful countries. When a powerful country becomes unstable and expansionist it triggers the risk of world war. Now in the 21st Century it’s time for humanity to go beyond this kind of instability and focus our resources in more important issues such as climate change and ecosystem collapse.

I would suggest though that as the climate crisis hits, geopolitics will evolve into powerful countries helping each other out as crises become more serious for each of them. A good example is the current ecological crisis hitting India. They are currently experiencing an extreme heat wave, which has destroyed a lot of this years crops. Resulting in a ban on exports of grain, a couple of days ago. The worlds second largest grain producer. This at a time when the worlds 3rd largest grain producer, Ukraine can’t export a lot of its harvest. India has the largest population, having recently outstripped China. Will likely experience famine over the next few years. This may only be a harbinger for far worse ecological crisis over the next decade.
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 08:51 #695440
Reply to Olivier5 you were only too happy to mention Western leaders urging peace. Did they do so because they think it's pie in sky according to you or because they see a realistic road to peace? I assume it's the latter and I'm challenging you to think about what that would look like but as usual thinking beyond your pre-conceived opinions is beyond you.

I should've asked @ssu
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 09:02 #695441
Quoting M777
Being able to trade with some Paraguay, or even China for that matter, doesn't really help Russia much. They can buy stuff from China, but they need dollars/euros first, so they need to sell stuff to Europe.


China pays in yuan for Russian oil and gas. Guess where Russia spends it yuan? Nice example of pretending you know what you're taking about when you really don't.
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 09:12 #695444
Quoting Benkei
you were only too happy to mention Western leaders urging peace. Did they do so because they think it's pie in sky according to you or because they see a realistic road to peace? I assume it's the latter and I'm challenging you to think about what that would look like but as usual thinking beyond your pre-conceived opinions is beyond you.


Why, I'm challenging you to read and try and understand what those leaders I quoted have actually said. They didn't say: "peace now and no matter what". They said 1) Ukraine decides when and what they want to negotiate; 2) Restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity ought to be the primary goal now; 3) but ultimately, once this is achieved (if possible) then a peace deal will need to be found -- the goal is not to bleed Russia forever.

What Draghi and Macron don't want is a never ending proxy war. They want to be clear about the end game. They are not saying, like a facile little internet troll would: "Let's have peace now by being creative and thinking out of the box -- hey why not hostages?"
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 09:23 #695450
Quoting Olivier5
They didn't say: "peace now and no matter what". They said 1) Ukraine decides when and what they want to negotiate; 2) Restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity ought to be the primary goal now; 3) but ultimately, once this is achieved (if possible) then a peace deal will need to be found


Nowhere in those quoted speeches did either politician say "Restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity ought to be the primary goal now". Draghi didn't mention it and Macron qualified it with 'at least before February 24th'.

Neither politician even referenced the idea of peace negotiations only following a Ukrainian win.

More of your usual bullshit.

Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 09:58 #695453
Quoting Isaac
Neither politician even referenced the idea of peace negotiations only following a Ukrainian win.


I think Macron did:

Quoting Olivier5
the French president continues to plead, in the long term, for a "negotiated peace" with Moscow. This would follow a ceasefire that is still unattainable at this stage, with fighting still raging in the Donbas. For him, despite the delivery of heavy weapons to Kyiv, there is no question of allowing the conflict to drag on with the idea of weakening Russia. The priority remains, if possible, to re-establish Ukraine within its historical borders, or at least within those of before February 24, the date of the Russian invasion. (Le Monde)


The "delivery of heavy weapons to Kyiv" is meant to help fight off the invasion, and thus "re-establish Ukraine within its historical borders". However, "in the long term", a peace deal will need to be found.

I listened carefully to Draghi's Washington press conference when he speaks of "David and Goliath" not being the case anymore (around mn 9, in Italian). What he is saying is also about "the kind of peace Ukraine wants", long term, and whether it stops here or there. That he has some long term idea in mind is evidenced by his language: "we need to start to think about peace"; "to construct a path towards peace negotiations"; etc.

In my understanding, Draghi is saying: the tide of the war, the mid game, has turned. Now is the time to start strategize the end game. What type of end game are we trying to land on? A draw, an endless bloodbath, a resounding Ukrainian victory all the way to Moscow, or something in between?

These calls can be interpreted in the context of US pronouncements in favor of "bleeding Russia". For the French and Italians, this would indeed constitute war mongering. There needs to be some end to this. Draghi is an economist and stressed heavily the economic consequences of a long war.
Benkei May 15, 2022 at 10:00 #695454
Quoting Olivier5
the kind of peace Ukraine wants


And again, that kind of peace involves security assurances from countries not willing to give it. So what's the solution? It's not a difficult question to understand, even if its answer isn't immediately apparent. So again, what would that possibly look like.

"I have no idea" is an answer too you know. But I've offered several questions you could try to answer to help you get an idea.
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 10:08 #695456
Quoting Benkei
what would that possibly look like.


What it may look like now is this: either they stop pushing back the Russians at the pre-24 Feb border and allow Putin for some face saving way out, or they keep on pushing until they reconquer Crimea and Dombas.

In the latter case, Putin is left no face saving way out. He might do something nuclear, or opt to get reunited with Stalin, or both... Beside, the Ukrainian forces are likely to be perceived as invaders rather than liberators by a majority of the local population in Dombas and Crimea. So the latter option is possibly too risky, but it would secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine, a paramount national security goal.
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 10:39 #695470
Quoting Olivier5
However, "in the long term", a peace deal will need to be found.


There's no "however" in the speeches. Absolutely key difference.

No one but the Americans and their warmongering allies are trying to actively avoid peace negotiations until after a Ukrainian win. That would be absurd... unless your whole economy and foreign policy is based on perpetual war.

Quoting Olivier5
either they stop pushing back the Russians at the pre-24 Feb border and allow Putin for some face saving way out


The very deal you've been spitting your vitriol at for the last 200 pages. The one on the table since the beginning...

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-invasion-end-ukraine-war-four-conditions-1685492

Peskov said Moscow could "end war immediately" if Ukraine agreed to sign a neutrality agreement that would bar it from entering NATO, recognized Crimea as Russian, recognized the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent, and ceased all military action.


So remind me again why you want the war to continue?
SophistiCat May 15, 2022 at 10:47 #695475
Russia is still sore about the sinking of their Black Sea flagship and attacks on patrol boats near Snake Island. How else to explain this delirious disinformation campaign on Twitter? But who are these English-language posts aimed at? (Although, given that some posters here have been quite willing to give credence to the most ridiculous Russian propaganda, simply because it validated their favorite narratives, perhaps this isn't as stupid as it looks.)

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Ukraine66251776/status/1524436385435955201[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZOONewsTV/status/1524409604809003013[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/biwot01/status/1524406969754337281[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/KBoz3/status/1524395003384061953[/tweet]
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 11:08 #695481
Quoting SophistiCat
How else to explain this delirious disinformation campaign on Twitter?


Literally any other of fucking hundreds of alternatives... but sure, it's everyone else who are choosing an interpretation...

Quoting SophistiCat
simply because it validated their favorite narratives


Not you... definitely not the guy who's picking a couple of random Twitter posts and using them to divine the mindset of the entire Russian leadership.

Benkei May 15, 2022 at 12:03 #695488
Quoting Olivier5
What it may look like now is this: either they stop pushing back the Russians at the pre-24 Feb border and allow Putin for some face saving way out, or they keep on pushing until they reconquer Crimea and Dombas.


These are results of the war. The question was what would a peace agreement look like. Russia and Ukraine need to settle and agree on the future or another war could arise even if Putin would be forced out of office. Ukraine stated it wanted security assurances from Canada, UK and the USA, none of them wanted to give it.

Quoting Isaac
So remind me again why you want the war to continue?


Well, I have to admit that Russia's insanely backward military command structure, Ukraine's ability to listen in on Russian communication and now the arrival of GPS-guided artillery is making it very likely Russia will fail to make any meaningful gains if at all. Aside from the fact Ukraine would be prepared to make those concessions if they got security assurances (which they're not getting and why any peace deal kept failing, including USA's absence in any talks), stopping now would strategically be stupid when they're on the cusps of nullifying any gains the Russians made.

Edit: I still think none of this answers how longlasting peace looks like.
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 12:13 #695491
Quoting Isaac
Peskov said Moscow could "end war immediately" if Ukraine agreed to sign a neutrality agreement that would bar it from entering NATO, recognized Crimea as Russian, recognized the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent, and ceased all military action.

So remind me again why you want the war to continue?


I don't want the war to continue. This is not about me.

This offer you mentioned dates from early March and was the basis for the talks in Antalya, Turkey during the month of March, talks during which some progress was reportedly achieved. Then the Bucha massacre came to light and the Ukrainian position stiffened while the Russians were denying it all.
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 12:18 #695493
Quoting Benkei
These are results of the war. The question was what would a peace agreement look like.


A peace agreement with a totally defeated Russia would be relatively easy to arrive at and to enforce through whatever international mechanism à la blue helmet they would agree on for Crimea and Dombas. But if Russia is not soundly defeated military, then the question becomes: Can Ukraine trust any deal signed with Putin and his generals?
neomac May 15, 2022 at 12:24 #695494
Reply to Benkei
The problem is not just the American reluctance to seat at the negotiation table (they might prefer to wait until they have Sweden and Finland joining NATO, and bled the Russians' military machine and economy as close as possible to the brink of collapse). The point is that Russians may have made clear their demands, but they didn't clarify what they are ready to concede to Ukrainians in terms of material and psychological compensations and assurances for now and the future. If the only thing Russians are ready to concede to Ukrainians is peace now, Ukrainians will keep fighting for the reasons you just explained, and also because surrender to Russians demands would likely look as their humiliation: to the ones still alive and for the ones they have lost due to Putin's criminal aggression.
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 12:46 #695498
Quoting Benkei
stopping now would strategically be stupid when they're on the cusps of nullifying any gains the Russians made.


I think that depends if there's a notion to push through to Crimea and/or to try and regain more control over Donbas than before February. Personally, if we're talking about disputed territory, I think it's unjustifiable to use war as a means of either obtaining or regaining it. Exactly the same logic which applies to the injustice of obtaining territory by war applies to regaining it. It's not as if the territory 'belongs' to Ukraine in any meaningful sense.

I think one of the fundamental divide that this conflict has revealed is between those who are pro-borders because of some misplaced notion of 'nation' and those who are pro-borders simply as a means to avoid war. The former group now want Ukraine to 're-take' Donbas and Crimea, the latter group see the same principle applying to both.

As far as repelling Russia from gains outside of those contested regions, I think it's a moot point. If a peace settlement included a full withdrawal from those regions, I don't see why that should be accomplished militarily, even if it could be done at a great strategic advantage. There will still be great loss of life.

Overall, though the situation has changed insofar as the original decision was whether to sacrifice economic independence for political independence. The latter is easier to sell, so it was an obvious (though wrong) choice. That now done, they have the weapons to achieve what was previously not possible. There's no undoing the damage and the debts thus incurred, so I suppose they might as well. If you've irreversibly remortgaged the house to buy a yacht, you might as well have the yacht.
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 12:49 #695500
Quoting Olivier5
I don't want the war to continue. This is not about me.


Of course it's about you. The only matter of possible interest here is our reasons. Yours, mine, everyone else's. That you have some insane notion of us sitting in our armchairs rationally working out global geopolitics by logical debate is your own problem.

Quoting Olivier5
This offer you mentioned dates from early March and was the basis for the talks in Antalya, Turkey during the month of March, talks during which some progress was reportedly achieved. Then the Bucha massacre came to light and the Ukrainian position stiffened while the Russians were denying it all.


So?
Mikie May 15, 2022 at 13:34 #695507
Quoting M777
And yes, there is a flaw in your logic, because according to it the most crazy dictator can get his hands on a nuke and rule the world by threatening to blow it up.


Which is why we should ban nuclear weapons. But even if a crazy dictator did get his hands on nukes— say the threat or possibility was real. Is it worth losing literally everything?

This isn’t the same as sacrificing your life for freedom— or even many lives. I wouldn’t want to live under a dictatorship either, of course. But that’s not really the question. The question concerns the survival of the species. Is it worth it to sacrifice everything for a principle or ideal?

I don’t think so. Much better to find another way. Dictators don’t live forever— neither do empires. Assyrian rule or Mongol rule was pretty bad, I’m sure. Would it have been worth it to destroy everything rather than be ruled by them?

Quoting Benkei
Our forefathers fought for a host of freedoms over centuries. To give them up is an insult and thankless, so I really don't agree. Mere survival, life without dignity is not enough. I don't believe Russia poses such an existential threat. China might eventually.


I agree it’s an awful choice. But would China rule, for example, be so bad as to warrant destroying everything? I’m talking specifically about nuclear war. Quite apart from whether a ruler orders a strike, ground wars increase the risk of accidents— which are very real.

I would go so far as to say even a worse regime would still be worth enduring if it means the species survives. No regime is permanent. The annihilation of humans is.

Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 13:57 #695512
Quoting Isaac
Of course it's about you. The only matter of possible interest here is our reasons. Yours, mine, everyone else's.


Thanks for your interest but that's not what I am looking for here. I already have a fan club.

Quoting Isaac
So?


The offer has been rejected by Ukraine.
jorndoe May 15, 2022 at 14:00 #695515
Are there any indications that Putin wants to see Russia (sustainably) surpassing the Chinese neighbor? (in the usual ways, power in particular, economically, control, being heard/respected on the world stage, whatever) Having to rely on China might be like a thorn in the eye. Resources/territory could go some way.

Maintaining peace often means a measure of friendly, reliable relations among societies, at the very least dependable indifference. And internally, reasonable treatment of people. Openness/freedom/fairness can help, fear/posturing/subversion/aggression the opposite. And making genuine efforts (in good faith) can help. (No one is expecting France to attack the UK or to interfere significantly in internal UK politics, despite past centuries of hostile action; it can be done, it's non-hypothetical.)
"Politics and governing demand compromise."
How to achieve something like that with respect to the Ukraine-Russia situation...?
In some ways that ship has sailed, new orders coming out of the Kremlin would do it, ...

M777 May 15, 2022 at 14:10 #695516
Quoting Xtrix
Which is why we should ban nuclear weapons. But even if a crazy dictator did get his hands on nukes— say the threat or possibility was real. Is it worth losing literally everything?


That's because you are a coward. Luckily so is Putin, so knowing that NATO would drop a small nuke on his head if needed, he won't go too far. So in this case mutually assured destruction is better than banning nukes.
Mikie May 15, 2022 at 14:33 #695518
Quoting M777
Which is why we should ban nuclear weapons. But even if a crazy dictator did get his hands on nukes— say the threat or possibility was real. Is it worth losing literally everything?
— Xtrix

That's because you are a coward.


:roll:

Okay— bye.
RogueAI May 15, 2022 at 14:52 #695521
https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/counter-attacks-and-can-kicking-in-the-russo-ukrainian-war/
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 15:36 #695529
Quoting Olivier5
So? — Isaac


The offer has been rejected by Ukraine.


So?
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 16:12 #695539
Reply to Isaac So what?
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 16:17 #695543
Quoting Olivier5
So what?


I don't see why you keep just saying obvious statements about the news. I have a newspaper.

What has Ukraine's rejection of the offer got to do with a discussion about whether they ought to take the offer?
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 16:41 #695566
Quoting Isaac
What has Ukraine's rejection of the offer got to do with a discussion about whether they ought to take the offer?


It is has to do with the Ukrainians being in a better position to judge what they ought to do than us. Both Draghi and Macron insisted, rightly so IMO, on the fact that durable peace cannot be created by fiat, and that the genuine desire of the belligerents is key. No peace deal should be imposed on Ukraine against its will, they said. It's not our place to tell the Ukrainians what they should do. Not at this stage when they are fighting for survival.
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 17:43 #695589
Quoting Olivier5
It is has to do with the Ukrainians being in a better position to judge what they ought to do than us.


So we shouldn't be discussing what the Russians ought to do either then? If they see fit to flatten Bucha, that's not for us to judge, they know best?

Quoting Olivier5
durable peace cannot be created by fiat, and that the genuine desire of the belligerents is key.


...and yet you advocate the wholesale destruction of the Russian attack. In what way is that ensuring the genuine desire of the belligerents? Sounds like you very much want to force one of the belligerents into a corner where they have no leeway to express any desires at all.

See, you seem to be think that military pressure is the only force in the world. That if they're winning, Ukraine are somehow miraculously 'free', ignoring the billions of dollars of debt attached to the virtually total control of their economy by foreign powers.

Quoting Olivier5
It's not our place to tell the Ukrainians what they should do.


We're not. We (Europe, America) are working out what we think they ought to do so that we can decide what options to support and what options to not support. Or do we have no agency here? The alternative is just to blindly support whatever any nation asking for help asks us to do. Do you think that wise?
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 18:31 #695612
Quoting Isaac
So we shouldn't be discussing what the Russians ought to do either then? If they see fit to flatten Bucha, that's not for us to judge, they know best?


The Russians are not defending themselves. They are attacking. There is no comparison. Ethically we must condemn such an aggression.

Quoting Isaac
yet you advocate the wholesale destruction of the Russian attack. In what way is that ensuring the genuine desire of the belligerents?


It would even out the negotiating positions of each, and ensure that the Russians get interested in making real concessions to secure peace. It'd put them in the right frame of mind.

Quoting Isaac
We (Europe, America) are working out what we think they ought to do so that we can decide what options to support and what options to not support.


I support the line of my own government so far. I have no major disagreement with the 'Macron doctrine'.
Isaac May 15, 2022 at 19:12 #695626
Quoting Olivier5
The Russians are not defending themselves. They are attacking. There is no comparison. Ethically we must condemn such an aggression.


That's begging the question. You first decide if an action is right or wrong, then if its right you say "it's not our business to judge", but you just judged.

Quoting Olivier5
It would even out the negotiating positions of each, and ensure that the Russians get interested in making real concessions to secure peace. It'd put them in the right frame of mind.


That may be, but your criteria was not 'evening out'. Your criteria was that each party had a "genuine desire" for peace. If it's our business to put Russia in "the right frame of mind" then why is it disallowed for us to encourage Ukraine into any particular frame of mind?

Quoting Olivier5
I support the line of my own government so far. I have no major disagreement with the 'Macron doctrine'.


I thought it wasn't about you.

Your argument is that governments ought to help Ukraine in whatever way they ask, it's not our business to judge the rights or wrongs of that request. I'm asking if you're prepared to follow through. If Ukraine asked us to drop a nuclear bomb on Moscow should we do so on the grounds that it's not our business to judge what Ukraine thinks is best for its defense?
Christoffer May 15, 2022 at 19:54 #695639
For me and @ssu it's a big thing at the moment since we've just got word from the Swedish government that we're applying for Nato. This means that if a speedy transition will happen, we will very rapidly be member states. Most important for us at the moment is that Russia will conduct different types of attacks outside of military ones, except maybe breaking airspace to "show muscles". Other than that we will have a lot of unstable infrastructure with hacking attempts. But it's still a sigh of relief that we're transitioning into real security instead of false promises and sham diplomacies and it's a big loss for Putin and his fuckers if any of their reasons for this invasion were to keep Nato away. Like, what the fuck did they think was gonna happen? Stupid asswipes :shade:
ssu May 15, 2022 at 20:13 #695643
Quoting Apollodorus
Finland’s border with Russia was drawn by Sweden and Russia, not by the Finns.

Last three border drawings have been drawn by Finns and the Soviet Union.

User image
Olivier5 May 15, 2022 at 20:14 #695644
Quoting Isaac
You first decide if an action is right or wrong, then if its right you say "it's not our business to judge", but you just judged.


One can condemn an attacker, that's fine, but it's usually believed that people have a right to defend themselves. So it's not so okay to condemn a defender. Maybe the distinction is not clear enough for you?

Quoting Isaac
Your criteria was that each party had a "genuine desire" for peace. If it's our business to put Russia in "the right frame of mind" then why is it disallowed for us to encourage Ukraine into any particular frame of mind?


Because they didn't start the war and are already in the right frame of mind. They don't want an endless war. They want peace.

Quoting Isaac
Your argument is that governments ought to help Ukraine in whatever way they ask, it's not our business to judge the rights or wrongs of that request


That is ridiculous. You can't help yourself but misunderstand others. All. The. Time. What the hell is wrong with you?
ssu May 15, 2022 at 20:52 #695650
Reply to Christoffer Looking good, but it's not over yet.

It's going to be an interesting summer. And the best thing is that both countries are doing this together. It might be even with some kind of joint declaration when President Niinistö visits Sweden next week, but basically this is already a dual application: both the Swedish and Finnish foreign ministers already informed jointly NATO leadership were the application was going in both countries, so it's already very coordinated. And of course, when applying to an alliance, it's good to show you can be a team player and coordinate your actions with others.

The likeliest response from Russia, that "military-technical response" it has promised, will be a restructuring of defensive and offensive assets inside Kaliningrad and Russia proper. Which actually is quite understandable and naturally Russia can do that. I'm not sure what some hybrid attack would do, actually. Already some assumptions have been proven false.

(Washington Post 15th May 2022) So great is the threat to Russia’s strategic interests that Moscow will be compelled to take some form of action against Finland, said Dmitry Suslov of National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

At a minimum, he said, Russia will need to fortify its military presence along the Finnish border because Finland will no longer be considered a “friendly” country. It will also have to step up its naval presence in the Baltic Sea which will become, he said, “a NATO lake.”


I think Turkey won't be a problem, Erdogan just wants to make a point as all foreign policy is in the end domestic policy. And of course when thirty different parliaments etc. have to agree on something, it does take time.
Paine May 15, 2022 at 23:20 #695672
Reply to ssu
An interesting feature of Finland being outside of the Article 5 protection is that they can respond to any actual incursion from Russia without it being the NATO fight Putin is slavering for. Once Finland becomes a member, that freedom of movement will have conditions that will restrict Finland from counter attacking as they see fit. Neutrality has its benefits.

In some ways, Russia has been protected by NATO since collective war is always more lugubrious than unilateral action.

Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 00:17 #695694
Quoting ssu
The likeliest response from Russia, that "military-technical response" it has promised, will be a restructuring of defensive and offensive assets inside Kaliningrad and Russia proper. Which actually is quite understandable and naturally Russia can do that. I'm not sure what some hybrid attack would do, actually. Already some assumptions have been proven false.


They will probably do something to show aggression in some way before the membership is finalized. Something that won't trigger any alliance response, like cyberattacks, border breaking, heavy military presence close to the border.

But at the moment they won't have any military strength to do so. Putting too much of the military close to Finland's border means a lot of staff away from Ukraine. Finland's border is huge and Russia can't really cover it without stretching its military thin.

So I doubt much will happen until they're done in Ukraine. Which is why now is the best time for us to join.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 01:04 #695704
It's great that the guy who just murdered 10 black people in the US was inspired by the same Nazis that the US is handing a couple of billion dollars to in Ukraine. I'm sure this won't be a problem down the track at all.
jorndoe May 16, 2022 at 02:01 #695721
Russian Tycoon Criticized Putin’s War. Retribution Was Swift.
[i]The New York Times
May 2, 2022[/i]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14
[i]Institute for the Study of War
May 14, 2022[/i]

Whatever NATO's decision, Sweden/Finland aren't threatening Russia. Putin's Russia is threatening...a few others. Going to be costly. Hopefully a nation of haters isn't in the making with Ukraine. Some progress seemed to be underway.

Isaac May 16, 2022 at 05:07 #695763
Quoting Olivier5
So it's not so okay to condemn a defender. Maybe the distinction is not clear enough for you?


So, if a defender commits genocide, its not OK to condemn them? Besides which, who mentioned condemnation? We were just talking about what they ought to do. I ought to pay my butcher's bill, that's hardly the same as condemnation if I don't.

Quoting Olivier5
Because they didn't start the war and are already in the right frame of mind. They don't want an endless war. They want peace.


Barely a page or two back you said...

Quoting Olivier5
The problem then becomes the security and stability of Russia itself. This is why Macron and others are reminding us all that we need to keep channels of communication open with Russia, and to make sure Ukraine doesn't push its advantage beyond the liberation of Ukraine. A victorious Ukraine, armed to the teeth, could also become a destabilizing factor in the future. Zelenskyy won't be here forever. Wars often stroke extreme nationalism.


...so which is it? A Ukraine that's in the right frame of mind for peace, or one which might "push its advantage beyond the liberation of Ukraine"?

Quoting Olivier5
That is ridiculous.


It's your principle, not mine. Personally, I think governments ought to assess whether they ought to support some course of action for themselves, rather than just blindly doing whatever the defending nation ask for, but your counter argument was that it's not our business to judge what the best strategy is, so presumably, if Ukraine ask us to nuke Moscow, we nuke Moscow.

Alternatively, you could just realise you're talking shite, and actually it is perfectly reasonable for us to discuss whether Ukraine's strategy is a sound one since we're the ones supporting it with arms and loans...

...but that would mean you'd have to actually come to terms with the existence of a narrative other than the one your TV delivers you. I won't hold my breath.
Olivier5 May 16, 2022 at 06:14 #695787
Quoting Isaac
It's your principle, not mine


It's just one of your many lies. You can't deal with the truth.
Olivier5 May 16, 2022 at 06:23 #695791
Reply to Isaac By the way, why do you lie so much? What's the point of lying on a message board? You think people won't notice? You're wrong.
Benkei May 16, 2022 at 06:25 #695794
Reply to ssu Sweden shouldn't be a problem with their excellent weapons manufacturing. Not sure what the Fins bring. :razz:

Edit: BTW, I had some older friends over one of whom was a fighter pilot in the Dutch elite squadron and worked a lot with NATO. He still has contacts and it looks like a sure win for Ukraine now.

So I think the outstanding question is whether Ukraine should push to retake the Donbass region or not. Is that going to be a long separatist war? Crimea seems a step too far considering Russia's territorial claim to it and statements on use of nuclear weapons. What do you think, @ssu?
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 07:40 #695817
Quoting Benkei
looks like a sure win for Ukraine now.

So I think the outstanding question is whether Ukraine should push to retake the Donbass region or not. Is that going to be a long separatist war? Crimea seems a step too far


I'm confused here. You say 'win' and then ask if they ought push for Donbass and Crimea. How's that a win? Russia comes in wanting control over Donbass and Crimea, it gets control over Donbass and Crimea. That doesn't sound like a win. What am I missing?
frank May 16, 2022 at 08:13 #695824
Quoting Olivier5
By the way, why do you lie so much?


Micro-aggression.
Olivier5 May 16, 2022 at 09:03 #695838
Quoting frank
Micro-aggression.


Aka trolling
frank May 16, 2022 at 09:06 #695840
Quoting Olivier5
Aka trolling


Yep
boethius May 16, 2022 at 09:22 #695849
Quoting Benkei
Edit: BTW, I had some older friends over one of whom was a fighter pilot in the Dutch elite squadron and worked a lot with NATO. He still has contacts and it looks like a sure win for Ukraine now.


Quoting Isaac
I'm confused here. You say 'win' and then ask if they ought push for Donbass and Crimea. How's that a win? Russia comes in wanting control over Donbass and Crimea, it gets control over Donbass and Crimea. That doesn't sound like a win. What am I missing?


Was about to post the same sentiment as @Isaac, just with also a map:

User image

The black lines are what Russia controlled before the recent invasion, and Zelensky's own standard is removing Russia from all Urkainian pre-2014 territory, including Crimea, which no one seems to believe is going to happen (at least any time soon).

So ... where do these standards of Ukraine "winning" come from?

Now, jorndoe seems to believe the standard pro-diplomacy partisans such as my self have set for Russia is:

Quoting jorndoe
?boethius, you continue to describe Putin's regime like an ("immune"/"untouchable") automaton bombing-machine, and, in that context, Ukrainians as meek humans (in contrast) that should just surrender.


And therefore anything less than this is Ukraine "winning" ... but, I have said repeatedly that Russians could have disastrous morale collapse any minute and be routed on all fronts, just as has been predicted since the start of the war by Western media.

It's still the case now, that Russians could be routed from all fronts.

However, as it stands, Russia has occupied and also passified a large chunk of territory; in particular, forming a land bridge to Crimea and also securing the water canal as Kehrson, which are pretty big strategic victories in the Ukraine theatre.

The only evidence for "strategic defeat" is simply ex-CIA type people saying so, in the context of current CIA people unironically saying Ukraine is "winning" the information war and the CIA is just an unbiased third party impartial investigative reporter of these events.

As for the actual strategic situation ... we still don't even know what the Kremlin is trying to accomplish strategically (other than, for sure, a land bridge and canal opening, which they's done).

For example, if the Russians wanted to bait Ukraine into a total war posture, that's happened.

Rather, seems the narrative is changing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO is strategic defeat of Russia, but if Russia wasn't planning to conquer Finland and Sweden then this doesn't really change much strategically, unless Finland and Sweden wanted to join NATO to then invade Russia ... but that seems unlikely.

What seems more likely, is that we are in a phase of the conflict where both NATO and Russia are convincing their respective audiences that their winning / have won.

This could be the prelude of de-escalation, which I would guess both NATO and Russia both want at this point ... or ... a lot more escalation, especially as it seems Ukraine--at least as represented by Zelensky--has no motivation to do.

However, it's unclear if Zelensky has any further escalation options, which would leave the conflict in a stalemate and not a "victory" for Ukraine.

The West portrays stalemate as a Russian "loss", but if the stalemate involves Russia sitting on the critical assets it wanted, the analysis doesn't make sense to me.

Currently, as the map above shows, there's only a small portion of the Dombas left in Ukrainian control, and the media has portrayed this small holdout as a Russian "loss" rather than conquering the rest of the Dombas as a Russian victory so far.

Of course, it would be a morale booster and show of strength for Russia to conquer that last piece of territory, but it hardly seems like a microcosm for the whole war.

Now, if Ukraine started to take strategically critical positions such as Kershon or then retake Mariupole (in particular when there were thousands of Ukrainian and Azov defenders), that would be one thing.

As it stands, considering the troop levels Russia committed to the conflict, the current results seem basically the maximum territory they could aim to conquer and passify ... and, just so happens, the "ambitious" side of the land-grabs experts were speculating before the war.

For, keep in mind, Russia has not mobilised to total war, which would vastly increase its war fighting capability but would have immense domestic political and economic consequences (Russians view conscription as solely for self-defence, and mobilising conscripts removes people from critical civilian roles that they were previously doing).

Which leaves a cost-benefit analysis of whether these Russian gains came at reasonable or unreasonable costs.

Ukraine, as immediately repeated by the Western press, claim that Russian losses have been excessive.

But we don't actually know.

Neither do we know Ukrainian losses.

Who is attritting who we don't actually know.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 09:26 #695853
Quoting Benkei
Sweden shouldn't be a problem with their excellent weapons manufacturing. Not sure what the Fins bring. :razz:


Don't know what @ssu would strategize, but as a swede what I see Finland excelling at is being prepared for conflict. They have massive and well cared for underground shelters and a much larger part of the population enrolled as military reserves. Sweden's shelters are shit, we have a lot of them, around 60 000, but the tech is from the freakin 50s. It was even brought to attention recently in a Swedish TV show focusing on simulating a crisis; the reporter just picked up the phone supposed to be used by the leader in each bunker and it almost fell apart in her hands. So it's not very cared for. On top of that, my opinion about the Swedish population is that when it comes to national defense and the will to fight for our freedom, there are a lot of lazy people who just don't care. The greatest risk is that we don't have enough reserves and that people just don't give a fuck.

But combining Finland and Sweden's efforts it becomes a bit different. Finland will be much better at defending the actual border, they've done so before with a humiliating effect on the Soviet Union. Combining that strength with Sweden's speedy mechanical warfare (our mechanized strategies are many times faster than Russia, moving troops across terrain at high speed), as well as air and sea superiority (we beat both Nato and the US alone in Baltic exercises using only one of our u-boats), means that it would be impossible for Russia to gain presence at sea while being forced to focus on the borders to the Baltic nations and Finland. That's four Nato nations (five if counting in Poland) spreading their strength against invading troops and Finland also has such a harsh easter terrain that the pathetic Russian tank columns would get stuck before even entering the nation. All while Sweden totally blocks the baltic sea flank.

I think that if Russia would invade Nato in the north, that would lead to heavy counterattacks as well. Both Kaliningrad and St Petersburg can be cut off from Russia with heavy air attacks by the Swedish air force. Which would really tank the ability to hold the line for Russian ground troops. With Sweden and Finland part of Nato, it's basically game over in the north for Russia. The only way for them to expand anywhere would be east and southeast, but they might not be able to except by putting aged weapons in the hands of a large portion of their population. Hence why security increases so much for us being part of Nato, the collaboration for military defenses would be guaranteed, not just false promises that Ukraine experienced and had to overcome on their own.
boethius May 16, 2022 at 09:45 #695862
Reply to Christoffer

And you were able to deduce all this from your armchair?

Impressive. Most impressive.

When do you expect Russia will be invading Sweden?
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 09:58 #695883
I think @Christoffer should write the next Star Wars. A++ imagination.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 10:05 #695886
Quoting boethius
And you were able to deduce all this from your armchair?


No, I did not.

But you can believe whatever the fuck you want from your armchair.

Quoting boethius
When do you expect Russia will be invading Sweden?


Now they won't. Without Nato perhaps as a flank position for missile and weapon placement on Gotland when their military has been built up again, but now that we're about to join Nato they won't, which is the point.

Quoting Streetlight
I think Christoffer should write the next Star Wars. A++ imagination.


I think you should shut the fuck up. You're not even on the same side of the globe so you have no idea what you're talking about. If you want to criticize alliances you should criticize your Aukus involvement more than commenting on us joining Nato.


boethius May 16, 2022 at 10:06 #695887
This morning, the CNN headline was basically "Ukraine reports Russia is taking heavy losses".

The headline right now is:

Ukrainian forces reach border near Kharkiv: 'Mr. President, we made it!'


Skipping over this front page, first headline news article starts with "A Ukrainian unit fighting north of Kharkiv says it has reached the Russian border. According to Ukrainian officials," with zero verification, aka. journalism of any kind, just whatever Ukraine says is reported immediately as front page headlines ... where have they "made it" too?

There's no reason to assume the Kharkiv positions are strategically important. It can be claimed that this is a prelude to strategic gains, that Ukraine is "about" to win, etc. but we've been hearing that every day for literally 3 months.

If Russia is intent on consolidating the gains so using only "contract" professional soldiers, and not conquer and passify Karkhiv with troops it doesn't have, then consolidating defensive lines makes sense, and these Ukrainian troops haven't "made it" to anywhere important.

They could invade Russia (let's just ignore there was plenty other parts of border to do that all this time) ... that then gives the Kremlin the mobilisation card (the Kremlin is so far playing by Russia's legal rules as far as possible).

Now, some "pro-Ukrainians" here seem to think that escalating further total war with Russia—even to the point of NATO slipping Ukraine a few nukes on the downlow to casually nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg—is a good thing.

That harming Russia, even if they don't lose but are just harmed according to our standards and not the Kremlins standards (which we don't even know how things are being evaluated), is justified whatever the cost to Ukraine.

People should really think longer, in my opinion, of non-Ukrainians holding this position that any and all harms to Russia, even nuking Moscow, is justified for Ukrainians to carry out, regardless of the cost to themselves.

A position that basically reduces to: Do what we want and cheer for, without any cost-benefit analysis of any kind, ever!! Do it!! Dot it for the vine!!
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 10:07 #695888
Quoting Christoffer
I think you should shut the fuck up. You're not even on the same side of the globe so you have no idea what you're talking about. If you want to criticize alliances you should criticize your Aukus involvement more than commenting on us joining Nato.


No I think I will criticize anything I want, especially your overactive imagination, thanks. You can continue to cry about it, of course.

And as it so happens, AUKUS is a fucking joke, and I welcome your solidarity on that front.
boethius May 16, 2022 at 10:11 #695893
Quoting Christoffer
Now they won't. Without Nato perhaps as a flank position for missile and weapon placement on Gotland when their military has been built up again, but now that we're about to join Nato they won't, which is the point.


Ok ... well then, when were they going to invade before?

And how does this concern for Finland and Sweden square with the idea Russia is losing in Ukraine?

If Russia can't even beat Ukraine, why would Finland and Sweden be in any danger at any point?
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 10:13 #695897
Quoting Streetlight
No I think I will criticize anything I want, especially your overactive imagination, thanks. You can continue to cry about it, of course.


You can criticize anything you want, but you add very little to anything in here other than just being an annoying fucker from down under commenting on stuff you clearly know little about compared to us in the middle of it. If all you do is to try and bully around the thread for your own amusement then you're just making a fool out of yourself as an interlocutor and we won't care about anything you say other than as an annoying fly buzzing around. You don't criticize, there's no substance in your criticism, you're just irrelevant noise.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 10:15 #695898
Reply to Christoffer You wrote a three paragraph fantasy novella and I was complementing you.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 10:24 #695910
Quoting boethius
Ok ... well then, when were they going to invade before?

And how does this concern for Finland and Sweden square with the idea Russia is losing in Ukraine?

If Russia can't even beat Ukraine, why would Finland and Sweden be in any danger at any point?


Why would we let Russia ever get to the point of trying? Ukraine might have beaten Russia, but at what cost for the Ukrainians getting systematically executed, tortured, and raped by Russians? Joining Nato blocks any attempts and any attempts are impossible to know about. That's why it's a security strategy to join Nato.

It's also in support of the Baltic nations which are at greater risk than we are.

But your question of "when" could have been asked to Ukraine before they were invaded and arrogantly remarked as something never to happen, but it did.

On top of that, we can mock the pathetic military that Russia has today, but what if they learn and improve after this conflict to have greater success next time that shouldn't be underestimated.

You don't build security out of guesswork, you build it out of the necessary defense against a number of possible scenarios. This is not a board game with dice throws, we build strategies in order to get double sixes every time.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 10:27 #695912
Quoting Streetlight
You wrote a three paragraph fantasy novella and I was complementing you.


Were you equally pathetic at bullying people in school? Did they laugh behind your back at those attempts? :lol: If you're not adding anything just fuck off into the outback or something.
boethius May 16, 2022 at 10:40 #695923
Quoting Christoffer
Why would we let Russia ever get to the point of trying?


We agree there's basically zero danger right now or for the foreseeable future.

We agree that Russia may likely win in Ukraine, survive economically, rebuild its military stronger and better than it was before, and, therefore, could be a credible threat to Sweden at some point in the future.

Therefore, the risk of Russian military, economic and diplomatic victory over Ukraine should be taken seriously, and mitigated by joining NATO.

Even if all this we both agree on is true, the counter arguments are simply the same ones from the cold war, that being in NATO guarantees being targeted by nukes in a nuclear war, NATO having more land border with Russia increases (rather than decreases) the likelihood of nuclear war, which one is now a guaranteed nuclear strike target.

Of course, the rebuttal to that would be that major Finnish and Swedish cities are already targeted by nuclear weapons as Russia sees them as functionally part of the West anyways, in which maybe there is some marginal benefit to be in NATO anyways if Russia sees it that way anyways.

This argument can go back and forth.

The rebuttal to this rebuttal, that Sweden and Finland are already nuclear strike targets, is that the benefits are therefor only analytic edge cases and the optimum cost-benefit would be to reduce likelihood of nuclear war overall, which joining NATO increases rather than decreases.

To which is countered that more countries joining NATO lowers, rather than increases, chances of nuclear war, and so on and so forth.

If we're talking about some distant future where the context has radically changed and Russia wants and feels it can invade Finland and / or Sweden with conventional or even nuclear weapons, it's possible that NATO is a deterrent for that ... or it's possible that NATO is not a deterrent for that in this new future context. Indeed, being in NATO may actually increase the likelihood of an attack designed to demonstrate that NATO article 5 is not a credible deterrent anymore.

The general problem of nuclear weapons is that it's rational to cede to nuclear blackmail. For instance, if Russia dropped nuclear weapons on Finland and Sweden today or even the day after they join NATO, it still remains completely rational for the US, UK and France to not attack Russia with nuclear weapons, fearing a nuclear counter attack.

Which is why "madman theory" was developed by the Americans in the cold war, as the only way for nuclear deterrence to work (especially in covering other countries by your nuclear retaliation umbrella ... which Article 5 doesn't quite do), is that you are willing to do the irrational thing and launch nuclear weapons even if it is irrational to sacrifice most or all of your citizens that would not otherwise be harmed, due to a paragraph on a piece of paper.

Why the Western press calling Putin and the Kremlin insane is actually a strategically optimum favour (from a nuclear rivalry point of view, that we don't necessarily need, but NATO has insisted on us having), as it allows the Kremlin to play Kissinger's madman playbook without even trying very hard (American's had to spend significant effort to convince the Soviets they were cowboy crazy enough to launch a first strike if they woke up and felt like it).
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 10:49 #695930
Quoting Christoffer
I think you should shut the fuck up. You're not even on the same side of the globe so you have no idea what you're talking about.


This makes no sense whatsoever. Unless you're literally walking to these sites in person you're getting your information from the same internet we all have access to. I don't know if you're aware of this, but the internet does stretch all the way to Australia.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 10:56 #695939
Reply to Isaac Oh, you hadn't heard that arguments are geolocked?
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 11:01 #695944
Quoting boethius
if Russia dropped nuclear weapons on Finland and Sweden today or even the day after they join NATO, it still remains completely rational for the US, UK and France to not attack Russia with nuclear weapons, fearing a nuclear counter attack.


Yeah, I think this is one of the major flaws in the whole "we're safe now we're in NATO" argument. As if a flimsy piece of paper is going to hold any weight at all against the gravity of nuclear annihilation. As if countries don't renege on agreements all the time.

Here's Michael Beckley, for example, on America's record of alliance fidelity

I find many cases in which alliances restrained the United States, or in which the United States restrained its allies or sidestepped costly commitments. I only examine U.S. military conflicts and therefore cannot evaluate fully the prevalence of such cases of peace, but even within my biased sample, there are at least four cases in which alliances prevented U.S. escalation, and another seven cases in which the United States reneged on security commitments and/or restrained an ally from attacking a third party.


If they're prepared to tear up commitments for trivial political expediency, I don't see how NATO membership is going to mean anything if nuclear war is threatened.
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 11:04 #695948
Quoting Streetlight
Oh, you hadn't heard that arguments are geolocked?


Bugger, I didn't know. Well, you can all look forward to my thrilling forthcoming thread on the curfuffle about parking for the fishing boats down at the local harbour.

Of course none of you will be able to comment... Shame, its quite the scandal.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 11:17 #695954
Reply to boethius

Even if we weren't part of Nato a nuclear war would annihilate us anyway. We're surrounded by nations that are targets for nuclear strikes, a strike on Germany with a southern wind would down us in fallout.

There's also a deterrent in expanding Nato as a response to Russia's aggression. If they, like most other nations of the world, as referenced in the video of the Kenyan ambassador I linked to, keep their nation within the borders that are set, there won't be any conflicts. Sweden and Finland joining should be, for any rational Russian, a clear point made about how the modern world functions, something they clearly haven't caught up to. Few had any problems with Russia pre-2014 and if they'd kept within their borders they could have been closer to China's success, with great trade and a booming economy. But they bitch about their great empire and live in old outdated fantasies, while the bulk of their wealth went through corrupt oligarchs instead of businesses, and that's "ok", if they keep it within their borders, but the problem is when they invade others to make those fantasies a reality, trying to cosplay something into real casualties.

But if nuclear weapons are only to be used as an option for Russia if they feel an existential risk, then there's no risk. If they attack out of the blue with nuclear weapons then they would have done so anyway. This is the new cold war and as long as Russia keeps to itself there's little risk of anything, especially with the hard iron curtain drawn against Nato.

The only one holding the cards here is Russia, if they want to annihilate themselves that's up to them, but even in their battlefield stupidity and imperial fantasies, they don't seem that stupid. I think they clearly understand the Nato/Russia dynamic but they use propaganda and lies as a weapon trying to control other nations, which this time failed miserably for them. It might even trigger a shift towards better diplomacy when the fallout of the Ukraine conflict starts to happen in Russia. There will be a lot of internal questioning of the information tactics they've been using since it ended up expanding Nato instead of deterring it. The message to Russia is clear, don't invade other nations believing you have any rights to it, because you don't, and the world will punish you for it, whatever delusional justification you present as a lie to "trick" people into supporting your cause, it's blatantly obvious. Stay within your borders and fix your shit, until then we won't be fooled into some surprise attack, we will keep our guns aimed at our borders until you grow up from your toxic fantasies.

Nuclear war is unlikely, it would only be a reality as a suicide action by Russia; "if we can't have the world, then no one will!"
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 11:23 #695961
Quoting Isaac
Unless you're literally walking to these sites in person you're getting your information from


Or just have other sources for the information than online ideological bloggers. Outside of that, I don't think someone in Australia would have a clear sense of the discussion, debate, and events going on in Sweden and Finland, however much time they spend online. I don't think he keeps 24/7 information going or has constant social interactions with people living and working or even being in the military here.

So, outside of your continuous black and white fallacies trying to point out that it doesn't make sense because I'm literally not bending over the possible war maps of strategic planning of defense, it makes sense in that I know more about our situation than some random Australian trying to bully himself to earning intellectual respect. :lol:
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 11:26 #695965
Quoting Isaac
As if a flimsy piece of paper is going to hold any weight at all against the gravity of nuclear annihilation.


Neutrality or non-alliance won't hold against nuclear annihilation either. You can only plan a military defense against common warfare and that is what Sweden and Finland are doing. Nuclear annihilation would annihilate us even if we weren't in Nato.
boethius May 16, 2022 at 12:02 #695995
Quoting Christoffer
But if nuclear weapons are only to be used as an option for Russia if they feel an existential risk, then there's no risk.


... So when the use of nuclear weapons is inconvenient to your position, then there's simply no risk ... based on Russia's lying word about "existential threat" ... which is up for interpretation anyways.

In short, if Russia keeps its word (about policies it could change anytime anyways), according to you, then there's no risk?

Quoting Christoffer
The only one holding the cards here is Russia, if they want to annihilate themselves that's up to them, but even in their battlefield stupidity and imperial fantasies, they don't seem that stupid.


Ah ... I get it now, Russian's are stupid right up until the moment it's convenient to believe they aren't "that stupid" the moment that's convenient for you to believe.

Quoting Christoffer
Stay within your borders and fix your shit, until then we won't be fooled into some surprise attack, we will keep our guns aimed at our borders until you grow up from your toxic fantasies.


Maybe do some very basic geopolitical research.

Whether Russia invasion of Ukraine (to get water to Crimea and do other strategic things) turns out in the end to be a good idea or bad idea from a geopolitical point of view ... the "grow up" theory of international relations is new to me.

How did it apply to US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq ... or were you dismissively telling the US to "grow up" the whole time, and they finally listened and have "grown up" from their toxic fantasies of controlling middle east resources since retreating from Afghanistan last year?

They learned their lesson and now you are 100% behind these "adults" teaching the Kremlin trouble making "rebels" the same lesson?
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 12:04 #695997
Quoting Christoffer
Or just have other sources for the information than online ideological bloggers.


Are they secret? Would you have to kill us if you told us - so exciting!

Quoting Christoffer
has constant social interactions with people living and working


Again, why would people living and working in Sweden have any more idea than us about the geopolitical implications of NATO membership? Are you all secretly told about it via some complex system of Chinese whispers and knowing glances?

Geopolitical implications are usually discussed by...you know, geopolitical strategists. I don't know about the quality of your pubs over there, but here its mostly farmers and fishermen, it's an odd day on which an international foreign policy scholar turns up to regale us firsthand with his hot-off-the-press analysis of the situation.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 12:16 #696012
Geo-identity politics. How fun. This @Christoffer bloke likes to whine about substance and the employs the most vapid form of ad hom imaginable. I mean there probably is something to the idea of local knowledge but considering this bloke writes better stories than Harry Potter, he doesn't get to keep his geo-idpol card.
magritte May 16, 2022 at 12:25 #696015
Quoting Isaac
Yeah, I think this is one of the major flaws in the whole "we're safe now we're in NATO" argument. As if a flimsy piece of paper is going to hold any weight at all against the gravity of nuclear annihilation. As if countries don't renege on agreements all the time..


You're making the case against your own position. World politics is changing drastically in the wake of technological and economic globalization. Old alliances are fading and Pax Americana is coming to an end. Political polarization, not in small part generated by Putin's triumphant cold war strategy, has changed the stability of American commitments. America will do what serves its needs just as other nations do. Russia's foolish and incompetent war opened the door and this period of confusion is precisely the right time for Sweden and Finland to affirm their European identity.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 12:28 #696016
Reply to magritte "Pax Americana is coming to an end. This is why we must continue and buy into pax Americana".

Gotta love it. The West basically did all it could to make sure Russia would respond by murdering Ukranians, and then, when it does just that, gets people to affirm that it needs Western unity now more than ever.
jorndoe May 16, 2022 at 12:38 #696018
Reply to boethius, diplomacy :up: The more the better

I don't think anyone is simply declaring that Ukraine is winning, will win, militarily.
Yet, note that Russians like Yuri Podolyak and Vladlen Tatarsky have commented on Russian military failures and criticized Russian efforts. (Careful with the words people, cf polonium.)

My comment was about the continuing implicit denial that the Kremlin can be moved.
(And, in contrast, Ukraine can be moved and should be convinced to give up.)

Isaac May 16, 2022 at 12:38 #696019
Reply to magritte

Eh? Which position is this making the case against?

America keeps or reneges on its agreements according to its own political expediency, right? So Sweden and Finland's membership of NATO isn't worth the paper it's written on in terms of military aid against a nuclear threat (of questionable value against a conventional threat even, as Beckley's examples show)

So...therefore it's a good time for Finland and Sweden to join NATO? I don't follow...

Quoting magritte
precisely the right time for Sweden and Finland to affirm their European identity.


And NATO does that how?

User image

You see that massive blue block on the left? That's not Europe.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 12:40 #696020
Quoting boethius
... So when the use of nuclear weapons is inconvenient to your position, then there's simply no risk ... based on Russia's lying word about "existential threat" ... which is up for interpretation anyways.

In short, if Russia keeps its word (about policies it could change anytime anyways), according to you, then there's no risk?


If someone invades Russia, that's a valid existential risk for them, but no one is invading them. If they use the existential risk as a propaganda lie for a false flag operation with nukes, that obviously brings an existential threat to them due to the risk of counterattacks. It's the whole point of nukes as deterrents. The only risk of nuclear war would be if Russia sank so low on the intelligence charts and promotes a total lunatic who would just push every button possible to annihilate everyone who's not Russian, but that equals nuclear annihilation and then it doesn't matter if you're in Nato or not. Being in Nato helps block any attempt at common military invasion tactics or strikes. Nuclear war would be destructive for everyone regardless of alliances, especially back at Russia.

It doesn't matter if Russia keeps its word or not, an act that could destroy themselves entirely would only be taken by suicidal morons which, outside of the fact they are lunatics, is probably not the length they would go.

Quoting boethius
Ah ... I get it now, Russian's are stupid right up until the moment it's convenient to believe they aren't "that stupid" the moment that's convenient for you to believe.


They are delusional morons around their imperial fantasies, but they aren't suicidal, they know what happens if they start bombing the world with nukes. And even if they were, being outside of Nato wouldn't mean much if such a thing happens.

Quoting boethius
How did it apply to US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq ... or were you dismissively telling the US to "grow up" the whole time, and they finally listened and have "grown up" from their toxic fantasies of controlling middle east resources since retreating from Afghanistan last year?


We're not talking about the US, but you don't think the US has gotten extreme criticism over the years on how they've handled the middle east? I'm equally critical of US foreign affairs, they did however not use nukes as retaliation for 9/11 which, even if the war was in no way justified for that reason, would probably have been the "existential threat" Russia would have argued as the reason if they were in that position.

Quoting boethius
the "grow up" theory of international relations is new to me.


Well, it's basically that we've moved away from imperial mythology. Even if we can argue that the US acts as if they are an empire, they're not really doing it in the way pre-WWII empires did. What I refer to is the invasion and shifting of geographical lines, planting flags and shit. We can criticize a lot of how war and conflicts are fought today, proxy wars and resource-based politics and conflicts, but even with the presence of the US around the globe, they haven't planted a flag and expanded their land as part of their empire. They have a military presence, but the land they're in is ruled by the owner of that land. If they want to kick out US troops, they can, which happened in Afghanistan, regardless of what we think of the Talibans.

The old imperial methods were mostly based on myths, on conquering and ownership of other lands. Since WWII most nations have moved away from such war geopolitics to gain assets. Instead, like China and the US, superpowers have gained influence through more peaceful means (yes, sometimes proxy wars), but mostly through investment and ownership of corporations in other nations. Trade has become the new way to build an empire.

And yes, we can criticize that as well, it's pure capitalism as imperialist might, but the lemonade is that we don't have the horror of hell that is world wars. I much rather prefer something bad than hell, a bad that "can" be improved upon when the old die and the young grow into power. We can criticize globalism for the negative effects it create, but it has also brought different nations and cultures closer to each other and built up a sense of social peace between people. Many young people today have no interest in geopolitical conflicts because they see lesser differences between them and people in other nations. This is the good thing about globalism, the weakening of imperial delusions, of fantasies of the might and power of a nation owning the world. Collaboration becomes more interesting than owning others.

Russia acts with the old imperial ideal and it's so out of date that when the rest of the world "grew up" they tried to play the new game with oligarchs and money flow, but their deep corruption and toxic mythological ideals made it impossible for them to play the game like China successfully did. While Russia failed, China's economy grew to the extreme. Maybe it's not so much that they need to "grow up", but more kill off the old holding the nation back in these outdated ideologies.

Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 12:45 #696022
Quoting Isaac
Are they secret?


Yes

Quoting Isaac
Again, why would people living and working in Sweden have any more idea than us about the geopolitical implications of NATO membership?


We weren't talking about the geopolitical implications in the sense you mean. I was talking about the Swedish and Finnish situation of joining Nato, how our perspective is on the matter and what our security would be against Russian aggression.

Quoting Isaac
Geopolitical implications are usually discussed by...you know, geopolitical strategists. I don't know about the quality of your pubs over there, but here its mostly farmers and fishermen, it's an odd day on which an international foreign policy scholar turns up to regale us firsthand with his hot-off-the-press analysis of the situation.


Maybe my social circle is just more educated than that and has more insight into things. But you know, you don't believe in education so you won't grasp such concepts.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 12:48 #696024
Quoting Streetlight
Geo-identity politics. How fun. This Christoffer bloke likes to whine about substance and the employs the most vapid form of ad hom imaginable. I mean there probably is something to the idea of local knowledge but considering this bloke writes better stories than Harry Potter, he doesn't get to keep his geo-idpol card.


Here comes the lecturer on ad hominems by the guy who constantly tries to bully others and add nothing but his egocentric bloatedness to the discussion. You're just acting like a toxic troll, no one seriously cares about your input. :lol:
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 12:50 #696025
Every time some hysteric waxes lyrical over Russia Bad, it's worth asking why they are. You'll either get the tautologous Russia bad because Russia Bad, or else the Russia Bad because it would like the West to fuck off from its borders, which is of course the only reasonable answer to anyone who doesn't think international politics is a video game.

And if the latter is the case, then there is no worse response on the planet to Russia Bad than: let's make the West nestle right up against its borders. It has all the logic of: if we add oil to these flames, these flames will get tired and go away.

Reply to Christoffer You're welcome to ignore me. But you probably won't.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 12:51 #696027
Quoting Isaac
You see that massive blue block on the left? That's not Europe.


Canada and Greenland, what did they do wrong to you?
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 12:54 #696029
Quoting Streetlight
You're welcome to ignore me. But you probably won't.


Likewise, I mean, I seem to remember askíng you to stop replying earlier in this thread, so it's rather you who can't contain your need to bully around. You may need to talk to someone, preferably not a kangaroo though, they hit back.
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 12:55 #696030
Quoting Christoffer
Are they secret? — Isaac


Yes


Cool, so you are a spy! I knew it, how exciting! I won't tell anyone, promise.

Quoting Christoffer
We weren't talking about the geopolitical implications in the sense you mean. I was talking about the Swedish and Finnish situation of joining Nato, how our perspective is on the matter and what our security would be against Russian aggression.


That's the geopolitical implications in the sense I mean. What your security would be against Russian aggression. Are you suggesting that's something Swedes somehow know more about by virtue of their place of birth? How does this work exactly. If I'm born in Sweden but move away do I still have the magic?

Quoting Christoffer
Maybe my social circle is just more educated than that and has more insight into things.


Well, yeah, I should imagine you have James fucking Bond round to dinner and everything...
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 12:56 #696031
Quoting Christoffer
Likewise, I mean, I seem to remember askíng you to stop replying earlier in this thread, so it's rather you who can't contain your need to bully around


Oh you're quite right I will continue to point out how wrong you are about everything ever and are basically a war slut. Except for this one thing! But do continue to tell me how you don't care while caring a great deal, over and over again. I knew you couldn't keep away :heart:
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 12:59 #696033
Reply to Streetlight

Fortunately for world peace, Russia conveniently alternates between brutally masterminding existential threats to the whole of Europe and acting out Dad's Army in futile attempts to gadfly the world's 22nd largest army who'll easily defeat them any minute.

Phew!
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 13:01 #696034
Quoting Isaac
What your security would be against Russian aggression. Are you suggesting that's something Swedes somehow know more about by virtue of their place of birth? How does this work exactly. If I'm born in Sweden but move away do I still have the magic?


I really don't know what you are talking about here. I know more than you about what is going on in my own country, I know more than you about the debates, discussions, social dynamics around the topic of Nato and defense and security against Russia. And as we have closer ties with the rest of the nordic nations, we have much more interactions than many other groups of nations in the world. When it comes to discussions about our military, security and identity as nations, I know more than you since I live within this information 24/7, while you have to filter it through outside reports, translations, cultural interpretations, media etc. And yes, if you move away from Sweden and don't have much interaction with people back home, you start to lose up to date stuff outside of the cultural identity you brought with you and the knowledge born from that. This is just basic logic.

Quoting Isaac
Well, yeah, I should imagine you have James fucking Bond round to dinner and everything...


Funny you should say :lol:

Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 13:02 #696035
Reply to Isaac Yes Russia is absolutely losing and getting their ass handed to them in Ukraine but also they are Lord Voldermort and will conquer Europe if given half the chance so clearly all of Europe must immediately become an American foreign policy whore ASAP. This is totally not the reasoning of complete morons.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 13:03 #696037
Quoting Streetlight
Oh you're quite right I will continue to point out how wrong you are about everything ever. Except for this one thing! But do continue to tell me how you don't care while caring a great deal.


I don't care at all about you :lol: Do you see me seriously engaging with what you say? I just hate bullies and like to put them in their place, but I don't care about you, sorry if you wanted to be seen by bullying other people.
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:06 #696038
"Around 2,000 people are returning each day to Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, said the head of the city’s regional military administration, Oleh Synehubov. Russian forces bombarded the city for weeks but have recently withdrawn, in what military analysts describe as a victory for Ukraine."
NYT :clap:
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 13:15 #696039
Quoting frank
in what military analysts describe as a victory for Ukraine.


If this sustains and Russia is pushed back even further, then Ukraine won back its freedom and can rebuild. Going forward it's interesting to remember all of those who just argued for Ukraine to surrender and become part of Russia, giving up any future they had based on their Ukrainian identity and surrendering to the ideologies of Russia, erasing all the work against corruption they've speedily been doing to reach a point where they can become members of the EU which would then never be even considered a reality. And with all the atrocities that have happened, such things would probably have just continued and become a dark long period of hell in occupied parts of the nation.

So basically, if all goes right from this moment, resistance and the will to fight for freedom paid off, securing the future for all Ukrainians who want to live free and independent as their own nation.
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:17 #696040
Quoting Christoffer
So basically, if all goes right from this moment, resistance and the will to fight for freedom paid off, securing the future for all Ukrainians who want to live free and independent as their own nation.


:up:
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 13:24 #696041
Imagine taking seriously the idea that Ukraine will be in any way, shape, or form independant even if they do drive Russia out. Yet more fantasizing.

Its gleaming future: shoe factory and interest rate bearer for the West. And all that juicy black earth, ripe for international agribusiness, to be sold at bargain basement prices, and eliminating local farmer control. How exciting.
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:28 #696042
Reply to Streetlight independent of Russia, yes. They'll be in NATO.
magritte May 16, 2022 at 13:29 #696044
Quoting Streetlight
Yes Russia is absolutely losing and getting their ass handed to them in Ukraine but they also Lord Voldermort and will conquer Europe if given half the chance so clearly all of Europe must immediately become an American foreign policy whore ASAP.


After the American and Russian poster boy old farts die off who will direct American foreign policy and for what end, say in two years? Should Europe just wait it out?
Benkei May 16, 2022 at 13:29 #696045
Quoting frank
They'll be in NATO.


That's not going to happen. First of all, a country has to be functional democracy, which Ukraine isn't and won't be for a very long time.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 13:30 #696046
Reply to frank Mm, from one set of murdererous freaks to another.
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:30 #696047
Quoting Benkei
That's not going to happen. First of all, a country has to be functional democracy, which Ukraine isn't and won't be for a very long time.


We'll see.
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:31 #696048
Quoting Streetlight
Mm, from one set of murdererous freaks to another.


Yep. Welcome to your own species.
Benkei May 16, 2022 at 13:33 #696049
Reply to frank Check the facts

In 1995, the Alliance published the results of a Study on NATO Enlargement that considered the merits of admitting new members and how they should be brought in. It concluded that the end of the Cold War provided a unique opportunity to build improved security in the entire Euro-Atlantic area and that NATO enlargement would contribute to enhanced stability and security for all. It would do so, the Study further concluded, by encouraging and supporting democratic reforms, including the establishment of civilian and democratic control over military forces; fostering patterns and habits of cooperation, consultation and consensus-building characteristic of relations among members of the Alliance; and promoting good-neighbourly relations.

It would increase transparency in defence planning and military budgets, thereby reinforcing confidence among states, and would reinforce the overall tendency toward closer integration and cooperation in Europe. The Study also concluded that enlargement would strengthen the Alliance’s ability to contribute to European and international security and strengthen and broaden the transatlantic partnership.

According to the Study, countries seeking NATO membership would have to be able to demonstrate that they have fulfilled certain requirements. These include:

a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy;
the fair treatment of minority populations;
a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and
a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures.
Once admitted, new members would enjoy all the rights and assume all the obligations of membership. This would include acceptance at the time that they join of all the principles, policies and procedures previously adopted by Alliance members.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 13:33 #696050
Reply to frank No I think your line made a hard stop a few generations ago, evolutionary speaking.

Quoting magritte
After the American and Russian poster boy old farts die off who will direct American foreign policy and for what end, say in two years? Should Europe just wait it out?


Not sure what you're asking. American foreign policy will be consistent as ever: eliminate democracy in favor of market-expansion and the destruction of labor rights everywhere. Doesn't quite matter who is in charge.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 13:34 #696051
Reply to Benkei To be fair this assumes NATO has principals which it abides by, which of course, it does not.
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:35 #696052
Quoting Streetlight
No I think your line made a hard stop a few generations ago, evolutionary speaking.


They said it was an infected boil.
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:36 #696053
Reply to Benkei
I think they make up the rules as they go, though.
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:37 #696054
Quoting Streetlight
To be fair this assumes NATO has principals which it abides by, which of course, it does not.


Correct. Bad Motherfuckers do what they want.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 13:40 #696055
The cartoon intellect hath spoken
frank May 16, 2022 at 13:42 #696056
Quoting Streetlight
The cartoon intellect hath spoken


But they said they don't want to sedate you to lance it, so they're going to just leave it. :groan:
Benkei May 16, 2022 at 14:00 #696068
Reply to frank Your think this based on what?
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 14:15 #696086
It's actually a pretty good litmus test to figure out who actually gives a shit about Ukraine and who's support is purely aesthetic based on Russia losing because it is a comic-book villain: those who think that a Ukrainian victory(?) over Russia will lead to its independence and overall good state of being - anyone who thinks this doesn't give a shit about Ukraine and never has - or those who recognize that a Ukrainian win means it's (re)opening to Western plunder and economic subjugation for the next century. Zelensky was already half-way to instituting the latter when Russia attacked - for it's own piece of the pie, of course.
frank May 16, 2022 at 14:27 #696099
Quoting Benkei
Your think this based on what?


Mostly just familiarity with the way people maneuver. If Europe doesn't want Ukraine in NATO, they might refer to the rules as a reason to deny Ukraine's application.

But if Europe wants to accept the application, they'll find a way.
SophistiCat May 16, 2022 at 14:39 #696108
January 2021

Russia: OMG! We suddenly realized that NATO has been expanding in Europe since 1997! And Ukraine might some day join NATO too! This is an existential threat! NATO must pull back right now!

Putinverstehers: See what you've done, NATO? Putin feels threatened!

February 2021

Russia: That's it! We can't wait any longer! We have to attack Ukraine right now, before it might some day join NATO and attack us!

Putinverstehers: See what you've done, NATO? Russia's war on Ukraine is totally your fault! You left Russia no choice!

May 2022

Finland & Sweden: We are going to joining NATO now.

NATO: Welcome, Finland & Sweden!

Russia: It's cool, we are not worried.
RogueAI May 16, 2022 at 14:43 #696111
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14
Apollodorus May 16, 2022 at 15:17 #696127
Reply to neomac

Dude, according to most scholars “Turkic” means Mongol or related to Mongol:

Turkic migration refers to the spread of Turkic tribes and Turkic languages across Eurasia and between the 6th and 11th centuries. According to Yunusbayev et al. (2015), genetic evidence points to an origin in the region near South Siberia and Mongolia as the "Inner Asian Homeland" of the Turkic ethnicity. Similarly several linguists, including Juha Janhunen, Roger Blench and Matthew Spriggs, suggest that Mongolia is the homeland of the early Turkic language. According to Robbeets, the Turkic people descend from people who lived in a region extending from present-day South Siberia and Mongolia to the West Liao River Basin (modern Manchuria).


Turkic migration - Wikipedia

Historically, the term Tatars (or Tartars) was applied to anyone originating from the vast Northern and Central Asian landmass then known as Tartary, a term which was also conflated with the Mongol Empire itself. More recently, however, the term has come to refer more narrowly to related ethnic groups who refer to themselves as Tatars or who speak languages that are commonly referred to as Tatar - Wikipedia


Also, “The Crimean Tatars emerged as a nation at the time of the Crimean Khanate, an Ottoman vassal state during the 16th to 18th centuries” - Wikipedia.

Of course, they would have some non-Mongol DNA as they enslaved the local population and raped thousands of local women! The Cumans themselves were a "Turkic nomadic people that eventually settled to the west of the Black Sea" (Wikipedia).

In any case, that doesn’t make Crimea “Ukrainian”! :grin:

Reply to ssu

Well, your first few maps show Finland’s borders expanding north- and eastward under Swedish occupation. So, your so-called “status quo” kept changing and quite a lot!!! Plus, the border was between Sweden and Russia.

And no, contrary to your claim, imperialism isn't necessarily "to acquire territory through military force".

American imperialism consists of policies aimed at extending the political, economic and cultural influence of the United States over areas beyond its boundaries. Depending on the commentator, it may include military conquest, gunboat diplomacy, unequal treaties, subsidization of preferred factions, economic penetration through private companies followed by a diplomatic or forceful intervention when those interests are threatened, or regime change.
The policy of imperialism is usually considered to have begun in the late 19th century, though some consider US territorial expansion at the expense of Native Americans to be similar enough to deserve the same term. The federal government of the United States has never referred to its territories as an empire, but some commentators refer to it as such, including Max Boot, Arthur Schlesinger, and Niall Ferguson. The United States has also been accused of neocolonialism, sometimes defined as a modern form of hegemony, which uses economic rather than military power in an informal empire, and is sometimes used as a synonym for contemporary imperialism.


American imperialism – Wikipedia

In any case, if the NATO Empire keeps expanding its territory, then it is incorrect to say that its aim is to maintain the “status quo”.

This is confirmed by the West’s stated intention to destroy Russia economically and financially:

Western officials have described their campaign as an economic war meant to punish President Vladimir Putin and turn the country he leads into an international pariah — even if it takes years for sanctions to destroy the defenses of Russia's "fortress economy."
"We will provoke the collapse of the Russian economy," French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told a local news channel on Tuesday.


The West's $1 trillion bid to collapse Russia's economy – CNN

Also, in military terms, if Russia’s armed forces are degraded to the point that it can’t defend itself, then Russia can be conquered by the West.

Of course, NATO imperialists will keep claiming that their Empire is “defensive”, but I doubt that thinking people will agree :grin:
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 15:55 #696145
Quoting Christoffer
When it comes to discussions about our military, security and identity as nations, I know more than you since I live within this information 24/7, while you have to filter it through outside reports, translations, cultural interpretations, media etc.


How do you get 24/7 information unfiltered, just by being in Sweden/Finland? I'm in England, I don't get information about English military security, unfiltered. I still get it though the press, open source intelligence, and commentators I read - same as everyone else. I can't just walk up to MI5 and ask, just because I'm a local. Yet all these sources are online, for anyone in the world to access.

What sources of military and security information do Swedes and Finns have unfiltered access to which are not on the internet?
Benkei May 16, 2022 at 16:12 #696146
Reply to frank As I said. It ain't going to happen.
neomac May 16, 2022 at 16:25 #696148
Quoting Apollodorus
Also, “The Crimean Tatars emerged as a nation at the time of the Crimean Khanate, an Ottoman vassal state during the 16th to 18th centuries” - Wikipedia.
Of course, they would have some non-Mongol DNA as they enslaved the local population and raped thousands of local women! The Cumans themselves were a "Turkic nomadic people that eventually settled to the west of the Black Sea" (Wikipedia).


Dude, I quoted you not only Wikipedia but ethnogenesis studies on the Crimean Tatars, that prove Crimean Tatars' origins were pre-Mongol. And also specific genetic studies on Crimean Tatars prove that they can not be assimilated to Mongols! https://www.iccrimea.org/reports/genographic-results.html
(BTW there are more recent genetic studies that prove the hypothesis that Siberian Tatars stem from Mongols wrong: "The approach based on the full sequencing of the Y chromosome reveals only a weak (2%) Central Asian genetic trace in the Siberian Tatar gene pool, dated to 900 years ago. Hence, the Mongolian hypothesis of the origin of Siberian Tatars is not supported in genetic perspective". source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0026893316060029)
And if the Crimean Tatar genetic pool shares something with the Mongols this is for the same reason why also Russians may have Mongol and Tatar ancestors, namely due to ancient nomadic tribes' migrations and the Mongolian invasions!
Finally, and most importantly, it's not matter of how pure their blood is (see how racist your principle starts sounding?), but who are the indigenous inhabitants of Crimea. Not the Russians! But the Crimean Tatars (https://ctrcenter.org/en/o-krymskih-tatarah, Here some more on their history [1])! So they should be the right owners according to your views!

Quoting Apollodorus
In any case, that doesn’t make Crimea “Ukrainian”! :grin:


Sure, according to your principle (not mine), Crimea belongs to Crimean Tatars, so neither "Ukrainian" nor "Russian"! But Crimean Tatars seem to fear more the Russians than the Ukrainians: https://theconversation.com/why-crimean-tatars-are-fearful-as-russia-invades-ukraine-178396
This is something that should concern you, because you too have now reasons to oppose Russian imperialism in Crimea based on your own principles!


[1]
The antinationalist, multiethnic Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Re- public(RSFSR), guidedbyitsMarxist,class-orientedideology,stoodfourth in line of descent of ethnically heterogeneous empires under which Crimean Tatars had struggled to retain a distinctive group identity. Beginning with the Mongols early in the thirteenth century, the Qipchaq component of the inhabitants who populated the peninsula, Tatars, rather soon found themselves a minor segment in another conglomerate, the Ottoman Empire, a government led by politicians more willing than later imperial rulers to leave Crimean Tatar unity intact. Russian emperors in their turn sought not only to absorb the geography and economy of Crimea into their unitary state but to destroy or dissolve any viability of the Crimean Tatar community.
source: "The Tatars of Crimea" E. A. Allworth (1998)
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 16:55 #696167
Quoting Isaac
How do you get 24/7 information unfiltered, just by being in Sweden/Finland? I'm in England, I don't get information about English military security, unfiltered. I still get it though the press, open source intelligence, and commentators I read - same as everyone else. I can't just walk up to MI5 and ask, just because I'm a local. Yet all these sources are online, for anyone in the world to access.

What sources of military and security information do Swedes and Finns have unfiltered access to which are not on the internet?


All of this is more than just military intel alone. You have researchers, politicians, police, security services, different types of authorities etc. Outside of that, do you know anyone in the military over here, any authorities? The combined flow of information depends on who you know and what the official discussion is in media and online. Just because you're in a bubble of guesswork does not mean everyone is. On top of that, you don't have the information flow that exists here, you do not watch Swedish news, media, or discussions that we have, all you have are from anyone sharing that information, with their interpretation filter and media reporting with the perspective of your nations journalism. It's filter through filter before you can start guessing, which isn't the case for me. On top of that, Sweden and the nordic nations, in general, have one of the lowest biases in media in the world. So it's easier to sift through the information flow compared to a nation like the US which has close to no media outlets not biased in one way or another.

Your point here is that it's either unfiltered raw information from the most secretive halls of the military... or it's just guesswork. Which is just a black and white fallacy... again. You might be doing guesswork, but others, even in the civilian sector, can know more than you, even if you try to make it into some kind of argument against me and SSU knowing anything about our own situation.

Bottom line is that if the information sources you describe are your only sources, then you definitely don't have enough insight to question what I present about our situation in Sweden. I can moderately describe Finland's situation since the nordic nations have so much in common and communicate regularly, but @ssu can describe Finland's point of view better than I.
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 17:37 #696181
Quoting Christoffer
The combined flow of information depends on who you know and what the official discussion is in media and online. Just because you're in a bubble of guesswork does not mean everyone is.


Brilliant stuff! Look, for you personally, we're all well aware that you're basically Jack Ryan, but surely the rest of Sweden aren't all crack secret agents like you? How are they getting their unfiltered information?

Quoting Christoffer
On top of that, you don't have the information flow that exists here, you do not watch Swedish news, media, or discussions that we have, all you have are from anyone sharing that information, with their interpretation filter and media reporting with the perspective of your nations


So how do Swedish media not present the news from the perspective of their nation? Is the Swedish perspective magically more likely to be accurate than the rest of the world?

Quoting Christoffer
Sweden and the nordic nations, in general, have one of the lowest biases in media in the world. So it's easier to sift through the information flow


Ha! Called it.

Quoting Christoffer
Bottom line is that if the information sources you describe are your only sources, then you definitely don't have enough insight to question what I present about our situation in Sweden.


Wtf? You're serious aren't you? You're actually going through with the idea that you've got some special insight which us mere mortals can't even question. This is fantastic stuff, do go on about how unique you are, we'll see if we can't get you elevated to demi-god by the end of the thread.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 17:48 #696183
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/us/politics/biden-military-somalia.html

The US running 'special military operations' in Somalia. Can't wait till the US invades the US for violating the sovereignty of other nations' territory. Oh just kidding the US does in fact occupy its own citizens and kills them for funsies for doing things like being black and poor and existing in general. Will have to change my social media profile to a little Somalian flag in solidarity in the meantime. Slava Somalia! Or whatever State Department phrase du jour that Westerners like to peddle before forgetting it in about six months time. Probably because they are too busy losing their rights or being shot dead by racist mass killers inspired by the same people their government is funding overseas.

But maybe the Finnish won't let me talk about this because I'm not Somalian :zip:
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 18:23 #696190
Quoting Streetlight
Will have to change my social media profile to a little Somalian flag in solidarity in the meantime.


Who'd be so facile?
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 18:25 #696191
Reply to Isaac Man I was going to make a very angry serious post but now I am lolling and you've ruined my bad mood.
ssu May 16, 2022 at 18:26 #696192
Quoting Benkei
So I think the outstanding question is whether Ukraine should push to retake the Donbass region or not. Is that going to be a long separatist war? Crimea seems a step too far considering Russia's territorial claim to it and statements on use of nuclear weapons. What do you think, ssu?

I agree with you.

I think Ukraine has a good chance to halt the assault in Donbas and push back as they have done in Kyiv and Kharkov. They surely can stop the attack on Odessa and even limit the "landbridge" to Crimea. But Crimea is going to be the really tough issue. That will be viewed by Putin as Russia proper, so I would think twice before pushing the luck to go there.

I remember one former high-ranking British officer saying the obvious thing which isn't said: That there has to be a negotiated peace to end this war. At some time, even if Ukraine is victorious, they have to seek a negotiated settlement of then adapt a low-intensity stalemate, what we saw after 2015 before February 24th. Going to the Red Square isn't an option.

There is a lot of enthusiasm both in Ukraine and to support Ukraine, but if the war prolongs, it might wane. Russia can always simply halt it's offensives and go to the defense. It still will take some time that Ukraine can start making large attack operations with several brigades. The attacker will be the one that suffers more casualties.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 18:28 #696193
Anyway, this is what the Buffalo murderer was wearing and oh boy is it great that the US is funding these murderous fucking Nazis in Ukraine which are tooootttallly just a bunch of Putin propaganda and not something that will literally come home to fucking kill your own people!

User image

Slava fucking Ukraine hey? So glad the epicentre of neo fucking Nazism in Europe is getting flooded with weapons after being destabalized to shit hey? Maybe gargling and regurgitating the propaganda ejaculate of the US empire is not the best idea hey? Can't wait to have these motherfuckers as part of NATO.
Isaac May 16, 2022 at 18:50 #696198
Quoting Streetlight
So glad the epicentre of neo fucking Nazism in Europe is getting flooded with weapons after being destabalized to shit hey?


It'll probably be totally fine. After all, it's not as if Ukraine is also one of the largest arms trafficking markets in Europe!

Quoting Global Organised Crime Index
Ukraine is believed to have one of the largest arms trafficking markets in Europe.


Oh fuck!

Still... the look on Putin's face when they win, eh...Priceless...gotta be worth an international resurgence of armed Neo-Nazis committing hate crimes...
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 18:53 #696199
Reply to Isaac Yeah lmao Putin bad so it's ok. Minorities have always been collateral damage so the US can retain geopolitical supremacy anyway so no biggie - especially if the goodies can stick it to Putin, which is the most important thing because this is all a video game anyway except for all the dead people maybe.
ssu May 16, 2022 at 19:11 #696201
Reply to Christoffer NATO can be happy with getting both countries to the alliance.

But as with Poland and the Baltic States, both Sweden and Finland are happy to join the "Retro-NATO", an alliance that is about article 5 than an alliance designed for global police duties, peace enforcement etc. For those the contribution will be small: at the largest a battalion or a few aircraft or a naval vessel. The typical force that a small NATO countries deploy to an international NATO operation. Basically what NATO-Sweden and NATO-Finland will offer to the alliance has already been seen in Libya and in Afghanistan. But in Northern Europe it's a different matter and in the matter of deterrence.

It's very likely that neither country has any appetite for large NATO bases or deployed nuclear weapons, which likely the US or NATO has not even thought about. The countries will be happy about one or two NATO squadrons that could be deployed to the countries in a crisis. And that's basically it and both countries know it: we have to defend our territory, inside or out of NATO.

And likely now Swedish and Finnish warplans will be coordinated even more.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 19:14 #696202
Quoting ssu
It's very likely that neither country has any appetite for large NATO bases or deployed nuclear weapons, which likely the US or NATO has not even thought about. The countries will be happy about one or two NATO squadrons that could be deployed to the countries in a crisis. And that's basically it and both countries know it: we have to defend our territory, inside or out of NATO.


Incredible. Can you teach this power of making things up out of thin air? Is it a scandi thing? Your fellow scandi has similar powers of complete fabrication. Is it just all that detective noir that you guys produce?

I liked the bit where you said the US and NATO have not thought all that much about nuclear weapon deployment. That was my favourite bit of completely incredulous fantasy.
ssu May 16, 2022 at 19:22 #696206
Quoting Streetlight
Can you teach this power of making things up?


Oh I make this up? FYI, not all NATO countries have nuclear weapons deployed in them.

User image

France and UK don't have their nuclear weapons in other countries either. Deployment of Pershing's in Europe is history.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 19:23 #696207
Reply to ssu Oh I see the problem is that you can't read English. My mistake, carry on.

I went back and bolded the relevant bit to help out a foreign language speaker.
ssu May 16, 2022 at 19:30 #696208
Reply to StreetlightAssuming that everybody is as ignorant as you about military issues just tells something about you.
Streetlight May 16, 2022 at 19:32 #696209
Reply to ssu Mmm, tell me again how the US and NATO have not thought all that much about nuclear weapon deployment in Europe (?????).

Does it come from the same intelligence reports that say the US and the West don't like war?

Like, would it hurt you to stop writing paragraphs of completely obviously made up trash?
Olivier5 May 16, 2022 at 19:34 #696211
Quoting ssu
I think Ukraine has a good chance to halt the assault in Donbas and push back as they have done in Kyiv and Kharkov. They surely can stop the attack on Odessa and even limit the "landbridge" to Crimea. But Crimea is going to be the really tough issue. That will be viewed by Putin as Russia proper, so I would think twice before pushing the luck to go there.


Agreed. Supposedly, it would also be viewed negatively by many inhabitants of Crimea.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 19:40 #696213
Quoting Isaac
Wtf? You're serious aren't you? You're actually going through with the idea that you've got some special insight which us mere mortals can't even question.


No, I'm just calling out your bullshit thinking you know even surface-level stuff of what is going on in Sweden and Finland.

Quoting Isaac
Look, for you personally, we're all well aware that you're basically Jack Ryan


And you are a professor who fights against the norms by stating education isn't needed, so how on earth can we take you seriously. You are the definition of an armchair guy.
ssu May 16, 2022 at 19:50 #696216
Quoting Streetlight
Mmm, tell me again how the US and NATO have not thought all that much about nuclear weapon deployment.

Does it come from the same intelligence reports that the US and the West don't like war?

So obviously you don't know shit about the deployment of nuclear weapons.

Hopefully you know what the US nuclear triad means. Hence two of those legs of the triad aren't in any NATO country, but in CONUS and on (under) the seas. What are deployed in NATO countries are the old free fall nukes, which also can be dropped by some aircraft of NATO countries. But these are limited and notice that the nuclear weapons haven't been deployed to Eastern NATO states (the map above). So it's extremely unlikely that they would be deployed (meaning that they are storaged) into Sweden or Finland.

(Russia already has it's nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad and Russia proper, so that part is already in place.)
SophistiCat May 16, 2022 at 19:53 #696217
Reply to neomac Dude, you are debating someone who believes that nations have a natural right to conquer and subjugate other nations based on their ethnic origin. I don't know why this neo-Nazi scum hasn't been banned yet. At least don't legitimize him.
jorndoe May 16, 2022 at 20:09 #696222
With the kinds of raving and ranting here (and roughly everyone, including in history, being evil), maybe one shouldn't have high hopes for peace (in Ukraine), eh? :D

A unified European defense has been mentioned here and there.
What timelines might that take to implement anyway...?
For something to become effective?
As far as I know, it's not particularly on anyone's desk.

ssu May 16, 2022 at 20:17 #696226
Quoting jorndoe
A unified European defense has been mentioned here and there.
What timelines might that take to implement anyway...?
For something to become effective?
As far as I know, it's not particularly on anyone's desk.

Well, we obviously don't have an unified Europe, if we think that Russia is an European country (and I think it is, even if half of it is in Asia).
Paine May 16, 2022 at 20:58 #696240
Reply to ssu
That aspect of Russia having a European identity is why I wonder about all the other ultra-nationalists in different states. Those different culture wars contest collective security on the basis of identity rather than a Chomsky style critique of empire. Their enemies are within the state.
Christoffer May 16, 2022 at 21:39 #696247
Quoting jorndoe
A unified European defense has been mentioned here and there.
What timelines might that take to implement anyway...?
For something to become effective?
As far as I know, it's not particularly on anyone's desk.


This is why I said that Nato is the only option for Sweden and Finland. There's no other real guarantee, as we've seen with the support for Ukraine before the invasion and during. Many larger nations will say that they support smaller ones but it's mostly just as empty as people on Facebook putting flags on their profile pictures, it doesn't help at all and is no guarantee of security. And by the time the EU gets together a proper alliance at the level of Nato, Russia would already have forces on the move to stop it. So, it doesn't matter what people think of Sweden and Finland joining Nato, I rather take the lesser evil as security than risk the worse one going postal on us.
ssu May 16, 2022 at 22:12 #696253
Quoting Christoffer
I rather take the lesser evil as security than risk the worse one going postal on us.

The fact is that Russia simply isn't a normal country that would try to have good relations with it's neighbors. It seeks the role it had when it was an empire/Superpower, makes huge gambles and takes extreme risks. It's extremely reckless. There simply are no benefits in trying to appease Putin.

Hence there simply is no win-win in trying to behave as before. It's all lose-in-every-scenario. What does having good ties with Russia mean? Being Belarus? Kazakhstan?

Or Armenia?

Armenia is in a military alliance with Russia in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), along with four other ex-Soviet countries, a relationship that Armenia finds essential to its security. Or thought was essential. But Russia didn't intervene or come to the help of Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked in the Nagorno-Karabach. It actually had sold weapons to Azerbaijan. And is all but happy using the divide and rule tactics in the Caucasus.



magritte May 16, 2022 at 22:29 #696257
Quoting jorndoe
A unified European defense has been mentioned here and there.
What timelines might that take to implement anyway...?
For something to become effective?
As far as I know, it's not particularly on anyone's desk.


A legitimate issue. What happens if the US decides to step away from its leadership role in NATO, not now, but after a couple of years? Will the militarized member nations stay united or will their leaders reignite historical nationalistic conflicts against their neighbors?
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 00:56 #696298
Quoting ssu
Hopefully you know what the US nuclear triad means. Hence two of those legs of the triad aren't in any NATO country, but in CONUS and on (under) the seas. What are deployed in NATO countries are the old free fall nukes, which also can be dropped by some aircraft of NATO countries. But these are limited and notice that the nuclear weapons haven't been deployed to Eastern NATO states (the map above). So it's extremely unlikely that they would be deployed (meaning that they are storaged) into Sweden or Finland.


Yeah and ths US and NATO "likely have not thought about" this, but you, random ass person who says wrong things all the time on the internet, have. Please excuse me while I laugh to infinity.
ASmallTalentForWar May 17, 2022 at 05:42 #696385
Quoting magritte
A legitimate issue. What happens if the US decides to step away from its leadership role in NATO, not now, but after a couple of years? Will the militarized member nations stay united or will their leaders reignite historical nationalistic conflicts against their neighbors?


This is the essential challenge. Autocratic regimes tend to last while democratic regimes can change over short periods. Finland may think that it looks like a great idea to join NATO now, but what about in a couple of years when we have a protectionist and isolationist American administration that is perfectly willing to leave Finland on the front line of a Cold War no one wanted?

Now, I am personally biased against war and the military-industrial complex in America and I suspect - but I'm willing to be proven wrong - that the current conflict in Ukraine owes as much to US influence as it does to Russian aggression, so I'm not a perfectly neutral commenter here - for full disclosure if it is worth anything.

However, I would not be adverse to a neutral position for all nations between Russia and the EU in the interest of avoiding a second Cold War.

Side note - is this just too absurd that we have a World War 1 followed by World War 2 and then a Cold War 1 followed by Cold War 2? Is that too much a proof of the old saying "history repeats itself. First as tragedy and then as farce"?

My main problem with US support of the Ukrainian Conflict is that the United States is the largest and most committed arms dealer in the world and NATO, as far as we view it, is an international protection racket - war is a racket, full stop - so it feels like we'll end up with a divided Ukraine anyway, but one that required the devastation of the nation and a mountain of Ukrainian and Russian casualties.

I mean, it seems like from a humanitarian perspective, it would have been better if Russian won after a couple of days. Am I wrong?

Isaac May 17, 2022 at 06:18 #696391
Quoting Christoffer
I'm just calling out your bullshit thinking you know even surface-level stuff of what is going on in Sweden and Finland.


I haven't even mentioned anything going on in Sweden and Finland. I've been talking about the sense and consequence of their actions in joining NATO. Something that's going on in the global political sphere at large. Something which global political analysts do look at and write about, despite (I realise this will be difficult for you)...despite, not being from Sweden.

Now, obviously they don't discuss any of this without passing it by you and @ssu first, that goes without saying, and we're ever so grateful that you've decided to tell us here on this obscure philosophy forum before, say, briefing cabinet, or the UN, but once you've made your secret intel public, is it too much to ask that us mere mortals can have an opinion about it?

Quoting Christoffer
And you are a professor who fights against the norms by stating education isn't needed, so how on earth can we take you seriously.


I don't see what my views on education have to do with this. Non-pedagogic learning systems are not, perhaps mainstream, but those who espouse them don't seem to have any trouble securing research posts, teaching positions and consultancy. The world at large doesn't have any problem taking them seriously, so if you do, it suggests a more noetic problem...?
Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 06:27 #696393
Quoting ASmallTalentForWar
it seems like from a humanitarian perspective, it would have been better if Russian won after a couple of days. Am I wrong?


This assumes that a victorious Russia would not have jailed, tortured, rapped and assassinated the civilians under their control.

There is a reason why Ukrainians don't want to live under Putin's boot.
neomac May 17, 2022 at 10:03 #696450
Reply to SophistiCat Since we are part of a philosophy forum debate not an ordinary political debate, I don't think that discussing with Nazis about their views is a way to legitimize them. Besides in this case I'm questioning Apollonuts' legitimacy claims which, among others, spread filo-Russian imperialist propaganda in contradiction to his own principles. So I think I'm done with him ;)
ssu May 17, 2022 at 10:33 #696456
Quoting Streetlight
Yeah and ths US and NATO "likely have not thought about" this, but you, random ass person who says wrong things all the time on the internet, have. Please excuse me while I laugh to infinity.

Likely have not thought about = Likely have not planned to do

This from the guy who until the end didn't believe that Russia would attack, that it all was just hype from the US.

Weak.
Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 10:43 #696457
Quoting ssu
This from the guy who until the end didn't believe that Russia would attack, that it all was just hype from the US.


Don't be naïve. Russia did not actually attack. It's all fake news from NATO. @Streetlight was right.

He usually knows best, especially when it comes to the sexual life of marsupials but also Russia, this land of milk and honey.
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 10:45 #696459
Reply to ssu Yeah, NATO is "not likely to have planned" for the literal reason for their entire existence. Uh huh. At least make the things you pull out of the sky semi-fathomable.

And it really was hype from the US, whether or not Russia attacked or not. They could not have been more excited. They are even more so now. They get two more nation whores in Sweden and Finland to fuck.
Isaac May 17, 2022 at 11:48 #696466
Quoting Olivier5
This assumes that a victorious Russia would not have jailed, tortured, rapped and assassinated the civilians under their control.


The alternative assumes a war wouldn't have lead to worse.

The Ukrainian people were given a shit choice - lose part of your country to Russian rule (and all that entails), or keep things as they are territorially, a barely significant improvement in government, but lose thousands of civilians and soldiers and hand over your economy to foreign power to be asset stripped and enslaved.

Anyone who genuinely gives a shit about Ukrainians would bemoan the injustice of that choice. Those who are nothing but stooges for US foreign policy bemoan only the side which suits their narrative.
Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 11:52 #696468
Quoting Isaac
a barely significant improvement in government


Significance is highly subjective. Some people like slavery, others don't.
Isaac May 17, 2022 at 11:56 #696469
Quoting Olivier5
Significance is highly subjective. Some people like slavery, others don't.


Russia has about 1 million slaves according to the definition of Modern Slavery, Ukraine has about 0.2 million. Per capita, one is about as likely to be slave in Ukraine than in Russia.

But don't let actual facts get in the way of your budding fiction writing career.
ssu May 17, 2022 at 11:58 #696470
Quoting Isaac
Now, obviously they don't discuss any of this without passing it by you and ssu first, that goes without saying, and we're ever so grateful that you've decided to tell us here on this obscure philosophy forum before, say, briefing cabinet, or the UN, but once you've made your secret intel public, is it too much to ask that us mere mortals can have an opinion about it?

Unlike you, we do look up what is happening in our countries and what is talked about. It's a common misconception to think that others are as ignorant as you are and are just follow what is on the mainstream evening news and nothing else. Me and @Christoffer started immediately discussing the possibility of our countries joining NATO when the war started. Not because of any "inside information", but because it was simply obvious. If you had followed anything about security policy in both countries. Global media just picked it up far later.

Unlike you, this does effect me. You are just engaging in your spare time on a Philosophy Forum. I notice these developments even in my work, so perhaps I've got an incentive to follow the news and stay informed.

Quoting Streetlight
Yeah, NATO is "not likely to have planned" for the literal reason for their entire existence. Uh huh. At least make the things you pull out of the sky semi-fathomable.


Stick to issues you know. Your best field of knowledge maybe isn't military doctrine or nuclear weapons.

Quoting Streetlight
And it really was hype from the US, whether or not Russia attacked or not. They could not have been more excited. They are even more so now.


Yet Russia did attack. It started a large conventional war of the kind we haven't seen in Europe since WW2. I was an optimist and hoped that Putin wouldn't attack (as invading such a large country with such a force was crazy), but then he made quite clear in his speeches what he intended to do. It really wasn't about Minsk protocols or NATO enlargement. That should be obvious when the leader starts to talk about denazification.
Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 12:00 #696472
Reply to Isaac You couldn't recognize a fact if it bit your ass, and you can't read.

Learn some English, maybe?
Isaac May 17, 2022 at 12:06 #696473
Quoting ssu
It's a common misconception to think that others are as ignorant as you are and just follow what is on the mainstream evening news.


Then why do you keep making it? Your argument is so obviously circular it's a joke. You think A, I think B you assume I don't have the data to inform my conclusion on no other grounds than that I disagree with you. Neither you, nor @Christoffer have yet been able to answer my very simple question -

What source of information about the global sense and consequences of Finland's and Sweden's decision to join NATO is only available to Swedes and Finns?

Quoting ssu
it was simply obvious. If you had followed anything about security policy in both countries.


What was obvious? That they would want to? No one is disputing that. That it's a good idea? Well, many analysts still think it isn't, so I can't be that obvious can it?

Again, you're stuck in this crazy echo chamber where every opinion that disagrees with yours must be somehow uninformed, as if the world suddenly became crystal clear overnight - no grey, no nuance, no complexity giving rise to a range of well-informed, but different opinions. Just two mutually exclusive categories {what ssu believes} and {lies}.
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 12:07 #696474
Quoting ssu
Stick to issues you know.


I know very well when you fabricate completely incredulous trash out of nowhere. I've seen it so much I'm practically an expert. Like: the West is very tired of war; or, NATO has not really given all that much thought to nuclear weapons deployment in Europe.

Quoting ssu
It really wasn't about Minsk protocols or NATO enlargement. That should be obvious when the leader starts to talk about denazification.


Yeah yeah, NATO are innocent little babes and Putin is just a video game baddie. Oh and Ukraine is not chock full of Nazis inspiring murderers in the US who wear the same insignias that Zelensky's pal soldiers like to parade around in. The same Nazis you like to run PR for on behest of the American state department.
Isaac May 17, 2022 at 12:50 #696484
Quoting ssu
It really wasn't about Minsk protocols or NATO enlargement. That should be obvious when the leader starts to talk about denazification.


Uh huh, obvious from Putin's speech it wasn't about NATO...

the eastward expansion of NATO


the leading NATO countries


security in Europe


the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand


a bloody military operation was waged against Belgrade


No Nazis yet...

The bombing of peaceful cities and vital infrastructure


Then came the turn of Iraq, Libya and Syria. The illegal use of military power against Libya and the distortion of all the UN Security Council decisions on Libya


10th paragraph, still no Nazis...Quite a lot about NATO though...

The combat operations conducted by the Western coalition in that country without the Syrian government’s approval or UN Security Council’s sanction can only be defined as aggression and intervention.


the invasion of Iraq without any legal grounds


in many regions of the world where the United States brought its law and order, this created bloody, non-healing wounds and the curse of international terrorism and extremism.


Just lies and hypocrisy all around.


the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety, the very same “empire of lies.”


they sought to destroy our traditional values and force on us their false values that would erode us, our people from within


He just can't stop with the Nazi routine can he? Who does he think he's kidding?

in December 2021, we made yet another attempt to reach agreement with the United States and its allies on the principles of European security and NATO’s non-expansion. Our efforts were in vain.


Those who aspire to global dominance have publicly designated Russia as their enemy.


Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year.


Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us.


the question is not about NATO itself. It merely serves as a tool of US foreign policy.


It's sooo obvious this isn't about Nato...He's barely mentioned them in amongst all that talk about Nazis...

For the United States and its allies, it is a policy of containing Russia, with obvious geopolitical dividends. For our country, it is a matter of life and death


the forces that staged the coup in Ukraine in 2014 have seized power, are keeping it with the help of ornamental election procedures and have abandoned the path of a peaceful conflict settlement.


...

Focused on their own goals, the leading NATO countries are supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine


Finally. Told you it was all about the Nazis! What a douche! You'd think he'd have at least bothered to come up with some other reasons...
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 12:58 #696485
Russia: If NATO keeps moving East we will probably use violence

NATO: moves East.

Russia: Uses violence.

NATO apologists: Oh no the only solution to this is to expand NATO more. Crazy how Putin blames Nazis.

Even though, as it so happens, Ukraine is in fact crawling with fucking Nazis, now armed with American weapons, downplayed by Nazi apologists like ssu.
jorndoe May 17, 2022 at 13:54 #696492
And thus Putin's narrative (propaganda-style) has been adopted and propagated. :up: :grin: Worked.

ssu May 17, 2022 at 14:47 #696500
Reply to jorndoe And same stupid arguments are given on page 245 as in the early 10's and 20's.

Somehow not interested to reply to such bullshit.
frank May 17, 2022 at 15:30 #696505
Russia: We like Ukrainians. Let's not bother them.

Putin: Let's invade.

*Putin shows how inept the Russian military actually is.*

NATO: moves East.



neomac May 17, 2022 at 15:39 #696512
Meanwhile, in a popular Russian talk show, retired Russian Col. Mikhail Khodaryonok gives his grim assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine:
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 16:40 #696538
Reply to jorndoe This Putin propaganda?

User image

Or did this extensive Western media coverage of Nazis in Ukraine retroactively become Putin propaganda only as it became expedient to American interests, which you parrot?
RogueAI May 17, 2022 at 16:41 #696539
jorndoe May 17, 2022 at 16:42 #696541
Some of Ukraine's success repelling Russian forces is apparently due to some training sessions with UK military personnel. Efforts that came about after Russia assimilated Crimea.

Doesn't Russian law prohibit sending conscripts into war outside Russia? (If captured, they'll hopefully not be sent back in Putin's arms, whether having the law on their side or not.)

Putin's Russia, the invader, failed to swiftly take over Kyiv and capture Ukrainian leaders, succeeded somewhat with nuclear intimidation, succeeded in ruining parts of Ukraine (destroying, looting, killing), prompted Sweden/Finland to seek NATO membership (the rest of the north are founding members), succeeded in suppressing/removing other voices at home (for some time), succeeded in propagating particular narratives (propaganda-style), failed to respond timely to concessions thus making diplomacy increasingly harder when allowing bloodshed and ruinage, may have triggered making haters out of many Ukrainians (including Russian-speaking), ... Some successes some failures, with Ukrainians on the ground being shelled?

Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 16:46 #696542
Also I stand with Somalia against the US special military operation although probably those here who like to run cover for Nazis don't have much to say about the US invasion of a nation of black people:

User image
ssu May 17, 2022 at 17:02 #696546
Quoting neomac
Meanwhile, in a popular Russian talk show, Mikhail Khodaryonok gives his grim assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AacHvH2Z-mQ


Although that Ukraine would field 1 million men is unlikely, it can and will use the pool of reservists and the National Guard to replace it's losses. Now Russia would basically have millions of reservists, but the fact is that is has no way to train and mobilize them and huge difficulties to arm them. Above all, the move would be as toxic as the US reinstating the draft.

Yet the example of Mikhail Khodaryonok shows very well just how perilous situation Putin has put Russia now. I don't know if the TV program was cut at that point (perhaps it was!), but he surely was telling the truth.
Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 17:05 #696547
User image
Marteen Wolterink, from the Netherlands
Source: Cartooning for Peace
Isaac May 17, 2022 at 17:17 #696548
Quoting ssu
And same stupid arguments are given on page 245 as in the early 10's and 20's.


Yes, but no one's forcing you to keep posting them.

Reply to Streetlight

I was wondering if any of the great humanitarians here could direct me to the UK's 'Homes for Somalis' scheme. They set up the excellent, and not at all useless, Homes for Ukraine scheme, almost immediately as war broke out, so I assume a similar scheme for Somalis has been up and running for years, but I seem to be having trouble finding it.

Ah! Is this it...?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/20/100m-uk-aid-budget-returning-north-african-refugees

...oh no, that must be a different scheme...

Maybe this one...

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jun/22/betrayed-somali-refugees-kenya-dadaab-camp-sent-from-safety-into-war-zone

...no, that's the UN's excellent scheme to [s]kill[/s] repatriate them.

They really need to improve their advertising for it, because at the moment it almost looks as if no one gives a shit because they're black.
ssu May 17, 2022 at 17:27 #696550
Reply to StreetlightOne of the last things Trump did.

(Dec 5th, 2021 Reuters) President Donald Trump has ordered nearly all American troops to withdraw from Somalia, U.S. officials said on Friday, part of a global pullback by the Republican president before he leaves office next month that will also see him drawdown forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The United States has about 700 troops in Somalia focused on helping local forces defeat the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab insurgency. The mission has received little attention in the United States, but has been considered a cornerstone of the Pentagon’s global efforts to combat al Qaeda.


War on Terror continues... sigh.
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 17:29 #696551
Quoting Isaac
They really need to improve their advertising for it, because at the moment it almost looks as if no one gives a shit because they're black.


Well the US state department has not released a statement condemning the war in Somalia, so our friends here don't have any script to follow. It's not their fault.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1184575/europe-accused-of-double-standard-on-ukrainian-refugees/

That said the Europeans it's true absolutely fucking loathe anyone who is not lily-white so they will welcome their Ukranian refugees with open arms while letting those horrible Africans bloat at sea.
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 17:31 #696552
Reply to ssu Wow cool you can quote a year old article maybe narrow your Google searches to the last 24 hours and you can offer me some amateur analysis about more things you know nothing about while adorning it with useless infographics that no one pays attention to.
Mikie May 17, 2022 at 18:03 #696564
Quoting jorndoe
And thus Putin's narrative (propaganda-style) has been adopted and propagated. :up: :grin: Worked.


Quoting ssu
And same stupid arguments are given on page 245 as in the early 10's and 20's.

Somehow not interested to reply to such bullshit.


There's a lot of Russian propaganda around -- but listening to the reasons given has to be done, no matter how absurd one thinks they are. Sometimes there's a kernel of truth in it, other times a surprising amount of truth.

It's far harder to make the attempt to understand than it is to cheer for the home team. I don't think Russia is in the right here -- they're not, and military aggression like this is unacceptable. That's fairly obvious. But if we care about Ukrainians, we have to do more than cheer. We can see if and how we've contributed to this situation and make moves in the direction of peace. Can anyone argue that the United States' actions over the last 30 years have encouraged peace? I don't think so, any more than one could argue it for the middle east.

I don't see anyone on here claiming Putin is a good guy or is in the right.



Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 18:16 #696566
Quoting Xtrix
I don't see anyone on here claiming Putin is a good guy or is in the right.


Give them some time.
RogueAI May 17, 2022 at 18:31 #696569
Quoting Xtrix
We can see if and how we've contributed to this situation and make moves in the direction of peace.


I don't think anything was going to deter Putin from invading Ukraine except its membership in NATO. He thought he could just waltz in and take over the country. The takeaway here is that if Ukraine was in NATO, there would be peace right now. Finland and Sweden have certainly drawn that conclusion. I don't blame them.
Isaac May 17, 2022 at 18:49 #696570
Quoting RogueAI
I don't think anything was going to deter Putin from invading Ukraine except its membership in NATO. He thought he could just waltz in and take over the country.


Funny, that's almost exactly the view that the US government and arms industry needs you to hold in order to justify it foreign policy.

But that would only be a problem if you'd formed that view entirely based on intelligence reports from the US government and opinion pieces in the media from experts with ties to the arms industry... and no one would be that daft...
ssu May 17, 2022 at 18:54 #696571
Reply to Streetlight And you do your useless stereotypical rant as you usually do.

And as usual, quite clueless.

Like "Stand with Somalia". Well, the Somalian government (that use the blue flag with the white star) are happy that the US are back. But that small detail doesn't matter I guess.

Somalia’s newly elected president is welcoming word that U.S. special operation forces will again be based in Somalia to help in the fight against the al-Shabab terror group.

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud thanked U.S. President Joe Biden in a tweet Tuesday, calling the United States “a reliable partner in our quest to stability and fight against terrorism.”


As I said, the War against Terror goes on. Unfortunately.

ssu May 17, 2022 at 19:06 #696575
Quoting Xtrix
I don't see anyone on here claiming Putin is a good guy or is in the right.

But there's the anti-US team that thinks everything bad happens because of the US and is extremely unhappy about anything taking the focus off from how the bad the US is. Their main argument is that it's the actions of NATO and the US which lead Russia to start the war and hence it's the fault of the US. And the rest is just ad hominems.


Mikie May 17, 2022 at 19:37 #696578
Quoting ssu
But there's the anti-US team that thinks everything bad happens because of the US and is extremely unhappy about anything taking the focus off from how the bad the US is. Their main argument is that it's the actions of NATO and the US which lead Russia to start the war and hence it's the fault of the US. And the rest is just ad hominems.


"Everything bad happens because of the US" is, of course, an exaggeration. Who believes this? Think about it. Does anyone believe this?

No.

So let's leave that aside. Has the United States, as the world superpower, contributed to this mess in Ukraine? Yes, of course it has. Does anyone argue that this isn't the case?

So what the fuck are we talking about here?
Mikie May 17, 2022 at 19:43 #696582
Quoting RogueAI
I don't think anything was going to deter Putin from invading Ukraine except its membership in NATO. He thought he could just waltz in and take over the country.


Who knows what Putin was thinking. Whatever he was thinking, this was a stupid decision.

But to argue nothing would have deterred him from invasion except for NATO membership, when there's reason to believe that it was NATO's advancement that contributed to the decision, is pretty unrealistic -- in my view.

I tend to listen to the likes of John Mearsheimer on this issue. Pretty good scholarship there. Been lecturing about this for years.

Isaac May 17, 2022 at 19:44 #696585
Quoting ssu
extremely unhappy about anything taking the focus off from how the bad the US is.


Let's be absolutely clear, because the entire thread is on record. The issue has been entirely with your 'side' complaining about any and all mention of anywhere except Russia.

Literally your second post

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/648631

...complaining about mention of US culpability.
SophistiCat May 17, 2022 at 20:56 #696625
Reply to neomac Reply to ssu ISW and others have reported that loyal Russian military bloggers who generally support the war (such as "Strelkov," ex-FSB and former leader of "DNR") have been increasingly critical of Russian war effort.


Quoting jorndoe
And thus Putin's narrative (propaganda-style) has been adopted and propagated. :up: :grin: Worked.


Quoting ssu
Somehow not interested to reply to such bullshit.


Good idea. I don't get why anyone would even want to give the time of day to these fuckwits. The less attention they get the better.

ssu May 17, 2022 at 21:05 #696626
Quoting Isaac
Let's be absolutely clear, because the entire thread is on record. The issue has been entirely with your 'side' complaining about any and all mention of anywhere except Russia.

Except I've said about the mistakes like the Kosovo war and of course leaving Ukraine hanging dry with promises of NATO membership in the distant future. Or how stupid the post-Cold War era "New NATO" thinking was and how only now, after 2014 and 24th of February this year NATO has found itself again.

But those are things you won't notice. The mere mention that when a country annexes parts of another, it's main objective isn't to stop the enlargement of a third party international organization seems to be blasphemy for some.

At least I'm having first row seats to see just how much this all has been about NATO enlargement. Because here's the big NATO enlargement!

Quoting SophistiCat
Good idea. I don't get why anyone would even want to give the time of day to these fuckwits. The less attention they get the better.

Yeah.

But this is a Philosophy Forum and if someone who usually writes nonsense says something good or true, I'll give him or her my approval. Engaging with people that disagree with you can be beneficial and if people who are interested in Philosophy cannot speak to each other, then all is lost. We'll just look at each other through the sights of our rifles.


Hanover May 17, 2022 at 21:08 #696627
Quoting Xtrix
So let's leave that aside. Has the United States, as the world superpower, contributed to this mess in Ukraine? Yes, of course it has. Does anyone argue that this isn't the case?


To the extent that nothing occurs in a vacuum, sure, the existence of the US as a threat to Russia and the expansion of its influence through NATO sparked conduct on the part of Russia.

Who's to blame for Russian boots on Ukraine soil. I'd say Russia.

Moral responsibility rests not with the every actor along the causal chain, but upon the actor who interrupts that causal chain with a specific intentional act resulting in the specific bad act.

It's why we don't throw bad parents in jail for the acts of their children. It's that quaint notion of free will. That you killed because your parents sparked all sorts of bad conduct might be true, but if you pulled the trigger, it's on you and only you.
ssu May 17, 2022 at 21:14 #696628
Quoting Xtrix
But to argue nothing would have deterred him from invasion except for NATO membership, when there's reason to believe that it was NATO's advancement that contributed to the decision, is pretty unrealistic -- in my view.

I tend to listen to the likes of John Mearsheimer on this issue. Pretty good scholarship there. Been lecturing about this for years.


Well, what then you think of John Mearsheimer's correct forecast in 1993 published in Foreign Affairs?

Most Western observers want Ukraine to rid itself of nuclear
weapons as quickly as possible. In this view, articulated recently by
President Bill Clinton, Europe would be more stable if Russia were
to become "the only nuclear-armed successor state to the Soviet
Union." The United States and its European allies have been press
ing Ukraine to transfer all of the nuclear weapons on its territory to
the Russians, who naturally think this is an excellent idea.
President Clinton is wrong. The conventional wisdom about
Ukraine's nuclear weapons is wrong. In fact, as soon as it declared
independence, Ukraine should have been quietly encouraged to fash
ion its own nuclear deterrent. Even now, pressing Ukraine to become
a nonnuclear state is a mistake.

A nuclear Ukraine makes sense for two reasons. First, it is imper
ative to maintain peace between Russia and Ukraine. That means
ensuring that the Russians, who have a history of bad relations with
Ukraine, do not move to reconquer it. Ukraine cannot defend itself
against a nuclear-armed Russia with conventional weapons and no
state, including the United States, is going to extend to it a meaningful
security guarantee. [b]Ukrainian nuclear weapons are the only
reliable deterrent to Russian aggression.[/b] If the U.S. aim is to enhance
stability in Europe, the case against a nuclear-armed Ukraine is
unpersuasive.

See The Case for Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent

Nukes might have been the solution. Not a popular idea, but still plausible. Unfortunately then the West was far more afraid of those nukes ending in the black market than the sovereignty of Ukraine.
RogueAI May 17, 2022 at 21:19 #696629
frank May 17, 2022 at 21:35 #696632
Quoting ssu


Nukes might have been the solution.


:up:
Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 21:38 #696633
At the beginning there was a sort of battle for public opinion going on, with well funded efforts on both sides of the propaganda war doing their best through traditional and social media to push their narrative, so there was some sense in this thread echoing that battle for public opinion.

This battle has been won by Ukraine. At least for the moment, at least in 'the West'. Look at the Eurovision vote. Look at the Finnish parliament vote for NATO accession.

Billions of equipment and ammunition later, and with Finland + Sweden now on their way to joining NATO, I personally feel less urge to fight it off here.

The most argumentative 'peace lovers' -- they are argumentative aren't they? -- here make a lot of noise but they represent 5% of public opinion in Europe.

The issue of NATO's role was well summarized (for many of us anyway) by @Hanover. Now it's water under the bridge, in any case. It would be better to focus on the way forward.
Paine May 17, 2022 at 21:50 #696636
Reply to Olivier5
Well said. The status quo has been upended. The future is unlikely to be a reset of the previous deals.
Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 21:52 #696639
Reply to Paine Exactly. Therefore the discussion must move on. I'm not interested in some archeological discussion on how the war in Ukraine goes back to Methuselah.
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 22:00 #696642
Quoting ssu
Well, the Somalian government (that use the blue flag with the white star) are happy that the US are back. But that small detail doesn't matter I guess.


Last I checked this is exactly what Russia has claimed of Ukraine. But sure, pick your propaganda as you see fit for the side of the imperial murderers you like best, whom you do your utmost to cheerlead.
frank May 17, 2022 at 22:01 #696643
Quoting Olivier5
I'm not interested in some archeological discussion on how the war in Ukraine goes back to Mathusalem.


I am, though. I need to understand the Mathusalem angle. Like who is he?
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 22:12 #696646
Quoting Hanover
It's why we don't throw bad parents in jail for the acts of their children. It's that quaint notion of free will.


Ah yes, the infant-won't-go-to-bed theory of international politics. Nevermind that the US activtely encouraged and spurred on this war, and frankly couldn't be more enthusiastic about every dead Ukranian that gets blown to bits by Russian bullets. Yeah, in the face of tens of thousands of dead people, the best we can do is - because apparently humans are incapable of any sense of complexity and must treat their international politics like a bedtime story - 'pick a side'.

"Free will". Imagine using this Christian metaphysical bullshit to think about how to understand the geopolitics of Ukraine and expect to be taken seriously.
Olivier5 May 17, 2022 at 22:14 #696648
Quoting frank
need to understand the Mathusalem angle. Like who is he?


:-)

Apologies, it's 'Methuselah' in English. According to the Book of Genesis, Methuselah was the son of Enoch, the father of Lamech, and the grandfather of Noah. He had the longest lifespan any human ever reached, dying at 969 years old....
frank May 17, 2022 at 22:17 #696649
Reply to Olivier5 Noah's grandfather! Interesting.
Hanover May 17, 2022 at 22:55 #696660
Reply to Streetlight Other than just taking whatever opportunity you have to reiterate your narrative that you have an advanced and nuanced sense of understanding otherwise lacking everywhere you search, how exactly did what you say contradict what I said, even if what you said were true?
Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 23:02 #696663
Time Magazine in Janurary 2021:

At a hearing of the House Committee on Homeland Security in September 2019, Soufan urged lawmakers to take the threat more seriously. The following month, 40 members of Congress signed a letter calling—unsuccessfully—for the U.S. State Department to designate Azov a foreign terrorist organization. “Azov has been recruiting, radicalizing, and training American citizens for years,” the letter said. Christopher Wray, the director of the FBI, later confirmed in testimony to the U.S. Senate that American white supremacists are “actually traveling overseas to train.”

The hearings on Capitol Hill glossed over a crucial question: How did Azov, an obscure militia started in 2014 with only a few dozen members, become so influential in the global web of far-right extremism? ... From across Europe and the U.S., dozens of fighters came to join Azov that year, many of them bearing tattoos and rap sheets earned in the neo-Nazi underground back home. The Ukrainian authorities welcomed many of them, and in some cases granted them citizenship."


https://time.com/5926750/azov-far-right-movement-facebook/

Propagandized fucking morons in March 2022: "lol Nazis in Ukraine are Putin propaganda lol"
jorndoe May 17, 2022 at 23:10 #696666
What Turkey Wants From Sweden and Finland in NATO Expansion Spat (Bloomberg; May 17, 2022)

No Kurds
No restrictions on Turkey's arms trading

Mainly targeted at Sweden.
Might actually speak in Sweden's favor? :chin:

Streetlight May 17, 2022 at 23:22 #696670
Reply to Hanover I'm not out to "contradict" what you said, I'm out to dispute the frankly infantile framing of what you said. Can you imagine a state department lackey writing a white paper on geopolitics of Ukraine analyzing things in terms of "free will" and "moral responsibility"? They would be fired on the spot or else laughed at and told never to write that again on pain of infinate embarrassment. It's just so incredibly stupid.

Xtrix asked if the US contributed to the mess in Ukraine. And your response is a parable about bad parents and free will? What is this? Seasame Street?
Baden May 17, 2022 at 23:39 #696679
I'm aware everyone hates each other and we are possibly in an episode of Sesame Street where Big Bird beheads Snuffleupagus and hangs the Cookie Monster from a lamp post, but can we dial things down a notch, please?
frank May 17, 2022 at 23:51 #696688
Reply to Baden I just discovered that people all over the world know about Sesame St.

Mind blown.
Hanover May 18, 2022 at 00:56 #696719
Quoting Streetlight
I'm not out to "contradict" what you said, I'm out to dispute the frankly infantile framing of what you said. Can you imagine a state department lackey writing a white paper on geopolitics of Ukraine analyzing things in terms of "free will" and "moral responsibility"? They would be fired on the spot or else laughed at and told never to write that again on pain of infinate embarrassment. It's just so incredibly stupid.

Xtrix asked if the US contributed to the mess in Ukraine. And your response is a parable about bad parents and free will? What is this? Seasame Street?


No, what you're frankly out to do is continuously reiterate your narrative that you have some special understanding of the situation that somehow evades everyone else and so you stomp your feet around like that should make us better believe you.

What I said was that the Russians are morally responsible for their decisions. Somewhere you read into that that my position was that the best course of action for the US is to do that which would instigate immoral activity on the part of the Russians. That interpretation of my bad parenting analogy must also mean that you think I thought bad parenting was perfectly acceptable simply because they wouldn't be responsible for their children going out and committing murder.

In terms of the white paper you envision either of us being summoned to write, I suppose I would write it seeking to obtain whatever pragmatic objective I wanted to achieve, and I generally don't get sidetracked with moralizing. However, I do thank you for letting me know the consequence if I did moralize, as I'd be fired, laughed at, scolded, and just embarrassed until my face was so bright red that I'd never be able to show it ever ever again.
Mikie May 18, 2022 at 01:16 #696728
Quoting Hanover
Who's to blame for Russian boots on Ukraine soil. I'd say Russia.


Of course. Again— I don’t see who’s denying this.

Reply to ssu

I’m not in favor of increasing nuclear weapons — so I disagree.

A lot has changed since 1993, incidentally.

Merkwurdichliebe May 18, 2022 at 01:26 #696736
Quoting ssu
@Streetlight
And you do your useless stereotypical rant as you usually do.


I like his rantings. It's like a gadfly
Merkwurdichliebe May 18, 2022 at 01:37 #696746
Quoting Baden
I'm aware everyone hates each other and we are possibly in an episode of Sesame Street where Big Bird beheads Snuffleupagus and hangs the Cookie Monster from a lamp post, but can we dial things down a notch, please?


Awww really... do we have to?

Personally, I feel like a debate on war, especially an active war, should be as aggressive and vitriolic as possible. How else will we be able to identify which side people support?

For example:

I support the right of an aggressor state to invade another, and occuppy it if possible. I also support the right of a victimized state to repel its aggressors, and sanction the fuck out of them if possible...you motherfucker!

See, it works great :ok:
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 02:45 #696781
Quoting Hanover
you read into that that my position was that the best course of action for the US is to do that which would instigate immoral activity on the part of the Russians.


Talk of "reading into"... Perhaps you can quote where I said that of your post?

Quoting Hanover
No, what you're frankly out to do is continuously reiterate your narrative that you have some special understanding of the situation that somehow evades everyone else and so you stomp your feet around like that should make us better believe you.


Except I don't have any special insight. My sources are fucking TIME magazine. And basic reporting, say, of the European refugee crisis. None of this is special, not one bit. It only seems special in the face of the vomitus regurgitation of US propaganda talking points regularly and dutifully reproduced by participants in this thread. Your post just happened to be one among a long line of many that has tried to reduce and downplay American culpability by reducing world politics to some morality play for children with some help of metaphysical categories employed only by the most seasoned 18th century romantics.

Do not confuse the inconvenince of what I say with your ability to screen it out of consideration because it does not fit the approved script you run by.
Isaac May 18, 2022 at 06:10 #696821
Quoting ssu
Except I've said about the mistakes like the Kosovo war and of course leaving Ukraine hanging dry with promises of NATO membership in the distant future. Or how stupid the post-Cold War era "New NATO" thinking was and how only now, after 2014 and 24th of February this year NATO has found itself again.


Uh huh. And I've said Russia's invasion is brutal, unjustified and criminal. That didn't seem to be enough either.

Quoting ssu
The mere mention that when a country annexes parts of another, it's main objective isn't to stop the enlargement of a third party international organization seems to be blasphemy for some.


Again, as the record of this thread shows, it's not "the mere mention" at all, it's the relentless suffocation of absolutely every single mention of NATO, America, Nazis, literally anything that isn't an unending stream of righteous condemnation.

No one is objecting to 'the mere mention' of Russia's culpability. Its taken for granted. What's being objected to is the facile denial of any other angle whatsoever.

Ukraine faces a choice, has done since the war started, between submitting to some form of Russian demands or getting the aid it needs to repel Russia and thereby submit to American/European economic demands down the line. There's simply no argument about the fact of that choice. So when discussing what Ukraine might, or ought to, do, ignoring the consequences of one of the options is puerile

Quoting Hanover
Moral responsibility rests not with the every actor along the causal chain, but upon the actor who interrupts that causal chain with a specific intentional act resulting in the specific bad act.


And why on earth, after 246 pages, would we still be discussing moral responsibility? Is anyone still having trouble working out the morality here? If America's foreign policy approach was instrumental in making a brutal war more likely than it otherwise would have been, then we need to shout that from the rooftops, because it needs to stop such an approach immediately, lest it make conditions for another brutal war more likely. We don't, as seems to be happening here, want to hush it up lest it seem as if we're not apportioning the correct amount of moral condemnation. I realise coming from an Englishman of a certain generation, this is clichéd, but we needn't all wear our heart on our sleeve all the time.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 06:17 #696823
Quoting frank
I just discovered that people all over the world know about Sesame St.


Sesame Street is the best thing to come out of America, ever.
Merkwurdichliebe May 18, 2022 at 06:20 #696825
Quoting Olivier5
Sesame Street is the best thing to come out of America, ever.


Jim Henson is like Jesus in the the states
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 06:26 #696826
Quoting Merkwurdichliebe
Jim Henson is like Jesus in the the states


I had to look him up, and yet I owe him hours of laughter. Genius.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 06:36 #696828
@Streetlight Propagandized fucking morons in March 2022: "Go Putin! Kill all the Nazis in Ukraine!"

Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 07:01 #696851
Reply to Olivier5 Well we should kill all Nazis everywhere, and probably all their sympathizers and PR men too, and while it's clear that Putin isn't the guy for the job, I'm not sure that direct US taxpayer funding jibes with that project either.

One fun way of running Nazi PR is to pretend that they're not really a problem in Ukraine.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 07:17 #696858
Quoting Streetlight
we should kill all Nazis everywhere


And rape their women. Like that we shall be Nazi too.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 07:20 #696861
Reply to Olivier5 Hey you probably shouldn't express your rape fantasies in public. And why 'their women'? There are plenty of independent women Nazis that don't need to be owned by no Nazi man. Your sexism is unbecoming.
Punshhh May 18, 2022 at 07:48 #696867
Reply to frank
I just discovered that people all over the world know about Sesame St.

Mind blown.

That’s not the half of it. I was brought up on Tom and Jerry, Banana Splits, Whacky Races, etc etc.
ssu May 18, 2022 at 09:27 #696889
Reply to Olivier5 :100: :up:

This is the actual reality. There are so few participating on this forum, that single opinions effect where the discussion goes and what points are made.

This has been an absolute disaster for Russia and it's becoming more clear as the war goes on. It's the end times for Putin. What he can now basically do is just try to hold on to his power and survive.

But this war isn't like Afghanistan was for the Soviet Union, it's becoming more like the Russo-Japanese war was to the Russian Empire. Or could become like that.

Back then Czar Nicholas had been told by his advisors that the Japanese would not dare to challenge Russia militarily, even after negotiations between the two powers had collapsed (as Russia had rejected Japan's deal, offering to cede control of Manchuria). Back then when the war started, many in Russia believed that it would be a victorious war that would improve the domestic and foreign standing of the Czar. That wasn't what happened. A revolution happened.
Christoffer May 18, 2022 at 09:40 #696893
Quoting ssu
This has been an absolute disaster for Russia and it's becoming more clear as the war goes on. It's the end times for Putin. What he can now basically do is just try to hold on to his power and survive.


That and nukes. It's the only possible way for him to do anything. So everything hangs on how supportive or indoctrinated his surrounding staff is. If he gets to a point where he just wants the world to burn for all the shit that hit the Russian fan, then we can only hope there are no degenerate idiots carrying out his orders and instead it's the last straw for them to remove him.

Quoting ssu
A revolution happened.


Which is why I believe it is a real possibility. Depending on how bad things get for Russia moving on from the current low point, there's definitely a point when the people have had enough and if the people and military/police start to align in their critique of Putin and his minions, instead of being against each other, then that's the point things start to change.
ssu May 18, 2022 at 10:16 #696896
Reply to Streetlight All I'm saying that "Stand with Somalia" with the Somali flag in the background isn't interpreted the way you think. At least the twitter handle @StandWSomalia is pro-Goverment, supporting the new government that was happy to get back US support. Earlier government wasn't happy about Trump pulling away the meager resources.

User image

User image

And of course those who stand against US assistance in Somalia have different flags. :snicker:

User image
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 10:18 #696897
Reply to ssu What's that? You're selective about which murderous scum you like to flag-wave for? Yeah, I thought so. And considering those who fly the other flag are a US creation anyway, I'm not sure your color dilettantism matters.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 10:28 #696898
Quoting ssu
That wasn't what happened. A revolution happened.


Not immediately successful, but yes.

I agree that it is also a question of holding on to outdated worldviews. The Belarusian president said a few days ago that "By definition, Russia cannot lose this war." That made me laugh. "By definition" stands for: "In my fossilized world view".
Isaac May 18, 2022 at 10:30 #696899
Quoting ssu
"Stand with Somalia" with the Somali flag in the background isn't interpreted the way you think. At least the twitter handle StandWSomalia is pro-Goverment


Hang on, let me get this straight. (Ignoring the fact that the whole issue of flags came up as a reaction to their facile use...but that's clearly beyond you) You're saying that using a Somali flag doesn't actually show solidarity for the Somali people (likely now to be murdered in their hundreds as 'collateral damage')...because of a Twitter handle...?

No...correction...because of a Twitter handle and the fact that you found a picture on the internet of some badges?
ssu May 18, 2022 at 10:30 #696900
Reply to Streetlight Learn what flags mean, for starters.

Quoting Streetlight
And considering those who fly the other flag are a US creation anyway,

Actually it would be an interesting topic of how much of the emergence of jihadist organizations is a direct consequence because of the "War on Terror" itself, but I'm not sure if your genuinely willing or interested in the discussion being something else than your rants.

@frank said it so well four months ago on this thread:

Quoting frank
StreetlightX is deranged as usual.


Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 10:32 #696901
Reply to Streetlight Somalia does not actually exist. As a nation, it's been a fiction since 1992. I know, i've been there. Somaliland does exist, and so does Puntland. And then there's this unruled area in the South which folks call South-Central.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 10:32 #696902
Quoting ssu
Learn what flags mean, for starters.


I know quite well what flags mean. I just figured it'd be less important than supporting genocidal regimes. But I know you've got a thing for colors.

Quoting ssu
Actually it would be an interesting topic of how much of the emergence of jihadist organizations is a direct consequence because of the "War on Terror" itself


Well, it's a simple 'all of it', but I know this is a fuzzy topic for you because you like to defend superpowers and their holocausts.

Reply to Olivier5 Oh go back to fantasizing about rape.
ssu May 18, 2022 at 10:33 #696903
Reply to Isaac A national flag is usually the government of the country. It's used by the government in charge. The Somali government is happy to see American troops in Somalia.

Could it be more clear?
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 10:35 #696904
Quoting ssu
The Somali government is happy to see American troops in Somalia.


Imagine if someone took seriously the idea that the Russian invasion is OK because the people they invaded are happy to see Russian troops in Ukraine.

They would be rightly be called an apologist for mass suffering.

Could it be more clear?
Isaac May 18, 2022 at 10:38 #696905
Quoting ssu
A national flag is usually the government of the country. It's used by the government in charge. The Somali government is happy to see American troops in Somalia.


Gods! People fly little Ukrainian flags because the media told them it would make a good virtue signal to cover up their otherwise moral degeneracy whilst they sit back in their armchairs and do fuck all else to help. The US have just launched a 'Special Operation' in Somalia which will, without doubt - based on past record - kill hundreds of innocent Somalis. No one is flying a Somali flag. That's the issue we're talking about. I very much doubt the reason for that is that the population as a whole has a better grasp of vexillology than I do.
ssu May 18, 2022 at 10:43 #696906
Quoting Streetlight
Well, it's a simple 'all of it', but I know this is a fuzzy topic for you because you like to defend superpowers and their holocausts.

Actually not 'all of it' as muslim extremism has happened far earlier too and there's for example Algeria.

The US hasn't been involved in Algeria and Algeria saw one of the most bloodiest civil wars. It also shows that also Algerian military junta could use extremist fractions (the GIA) to divide the opposition. Hence when the Islamic opposition tried to get France to start negotiations, what do you know, GIA attacks French airliners. There are allegations of Algerian forces posing as the GIA and carrying on attrocities. And finally when the opposition laid down it's arms, the GIA suddenly simply vanished out of existence.

But that's for a different thread...
ssu May 18, 2022 at 10:46 #696908
Reply to Isaac Somalis that I've talked to long for the times of Siad Barre. Again someone you wouldn't be in favour.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 10:50 #696910
Quoting ssu
Actually not 'all of it' as muslim extremism has happened far earlier too and there's for example Algeria


Well that was a war on terror conducted by the French. Who deserved every dead Frenchman killed by an Algerian.
frank May 18, 2022 at 11:09 #696914
Quoting Isaac
No one is flying a Somali flag


Because doing so is pro-American. :lol:
Isaac May 18, 2022 at 11:55 #696933
Quoting ssu
Somalis that I've talked to long for the times of Siad Barre. Again someone you wouldn't be in favour.


The relevance being...?

As I said, the internal politics of Somalia are completely irrelevant to the point.

US military involvement will cause casualties (it always does).

People fly flags of a country to virtue signal their concern for the population of that country (regardless of their vexillological knowledge).

No one is doing so in response to this immanent threat to Somali lives because Somalis are non-european and the threat comes from American recklessness.

That is the entire sum total of the point being made. It's the same point being made throughout this thread.

People aren't less dead when they're victims of callous disregard than they are when they're victims of brutal aggression.

People aren't less poor when they've had their livelihoods wrecked by complex financial instruments than they are when they've had their livelihoods wrecked by tyrannical government.

People aren't less in jail when they've been jailed because systematic racism constrains their life choices than they are jailed because an oppressive regime bans their newspaper.

...and so on.

All the while our concern for others is guided by some Hollywood concept of good guys and bad guys, life will not improve for those on the lowest rungs, we merely swap the cause of their oppression.

But clearly this is the wrong place for any such complexity, being reserved for schoolchildren gloating over the sight of a bully being told off.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 12:02 #696939
I just like the implication that displaying a literal other country's flag implies American support. It is a wonderful encapsulation of imperialist arrogance. I hope alot of American soldiers die in Somalia (again). Just as I hope a great deal of Russian soldiers die in Ukraine.
frank May 18, 2022 at 12:06 #696941

Quoting Streetlight
I just like the implication that displaying a literal other country's flag implies American support.


Good. Because it does. :lol:
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 12:14 #696946
It's always good fun too to remember why the US was in Somalia last time:

[quote=Parenti, Against Empire]The truth slipped out when the Los Angeles Times (January 18, 1993) reported that “Four major U.S. oil companies are quietly sitting on a prospective fortune in exclusive concessions to explore and exploit tens of millions of acres of the Somali countryside.” The story notes that “nearly two-thirds of Somalia” was allocated to “the American oil giants Conoco, Amoco, Chevron and Phillips in the final years before Somalia’s pro-U.S. President Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown.” The companies are “well positioned to pursue Somalia’s most promising potential oil reserve the moment the nation is pacified.” The article reports that “aid experts, veteran East Africa analysts, and several prominent Somalis” believed that “President Bush, a former Texas oilman, was moved to act in Somalia, at least in part,” to protect corporate oil’s investments there.

Government officials and oil industry representatives insisted there was no link. Still, Conoco (owned by Du Pont), actively cooperated in the military operation by permitting its Mogadishu offices to be transformed into a U.S. embassy and military headquarters. The U.S. government actually rented the offices from Conoco. So U.S. taxpayers were paying for the troops in Somalia to protect Conoco’s interests, and they were paying the corporation for the privilege of doing so. The Times article continues:

[T]he close relationship between Conoco and the U.S. intervention force has left many Somalis and foreign development experts deeply troubled by the blurry line between the U.S. government and the large oil company. . . . “It’s left everyone thinking the big question here isn’t famine relief but oil—whether the oil concessions granted under Siad Barre will be transferred if and when peace is restored,” [one expert on Somalia] said.“It’s potentially worth billions of dollars, and believe me, that’s what the whole game is starting to look like.”

The intervention was treated as a humanitarian undertaking and then as a nation-building operation. U.S. and UN troops fought pitched battles, killing several thousand Somalis, in attempts to hunt down a “warlord” deemed too independent-minded. One did not have to be a Marxist to suspect that Washington’s goal was to set up a comprador order, not unlike the deposed Siad Barre regime, that would be serviceable to Western investors.[/quote]

Those oil fields are of course still around. So yeah, more dead American soldiers would be excellent. As excellent as dead Russian soldiers.
frank May 18, 2022 at 12:20 #696953
Reply to Streetlight
It's like you have the memory retention of a goldfish. You're outraged anew every time you learn this stuff.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 12:22 #696954
Reply to frank You have a strange notion of outrage. But then, you are addicted to me.
frank May 18, 2022 at 12:23 #696955
Quoting Streetlight
You have a strange notion of outrage. But then, you are addicted to me.


Fine. Bye.
Isaac May 18, 2022 at 12:26 #696957
Quoting frank
You're outraged anew every time you learn this stuff.


Yeah, because a much more appropriate reaction to America running an actual insurance racket is to tut quietly and move on to the sports section. Pathetic.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 12:29 #696960
Reply to Isaac No no the appropriate reaction is to downplay a century of consistent American imperialism and international corpse-production and revert to the State Department Putin bad; Everyone else unquestioningly Good model of international politics.
frank May 18, 2022 at 12:30 #696961
Quoting Isaac
Yeah, because a much more appropriate reaction to America running an actual insurance racket is to tut quietly and move on to the sports section. Pathetic.


You still have your pro-American flag waving. I don't know what to say about that.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 12:31 #696962
Slava Somalia. May they ward off the little special military operation happening over there.
neomac May 18, 2022 at 12:50 #696967
The more I read anti-NATO imperialism supporters the more I feel like becoming a NATO imperialist supporter: Putin's self-fulfilling prophecy about NATO expansion seems to work also for anti-NATO imperialism propaganda.
frank May 18, 2022 at 12:53 #696970
Quoting neomac
The more I read anti-NATO imperialism supporters the more I feel like becoming a NATO imperialist supporter:


Surely we don't have a good representation here. I'm not on Twitter or Facebook, so I don't know. I think we just have a couple of people who are trying to be emotionally abusive. Probably because it feels good to them.

Isaac May 18, 2022 at 12:56 #696971
Quoting frank
You still have your pro-American flag waving. I don't know what to say about that.


And yet here you are, saying something about that.

Perhaps there's a lesson there for future post quality.
frank May 18, 2022 at 13:01 #696972
Quoting Isaac
And yet here you are, saying something about that.


Yeah. The US sent in 500 troops to support the Somali government. And you're waving the Somali flag.

:lol:
Isaac May 18, 2022 at 13:22 #696976
Reply to frank

Wow. Your tiny mind must have been blown apart by what was happening here then.

User image

Were they protesting against the government? But how? They were waiving the government's flag.
frank May 18, 2022 at 13:26 #696980
Reply to Isaac
Carry on. You're doing fine. :up:
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 13:26 #696981
States like Somalia are famous for identifying with their governments, of course.
Baden May 18, 2022 at 13:48 #696985
The Somalia angle might make sense if what happened in Ukraine was that Zelensky asked Putin for a couple of hundred Russian troops to help suppress an insurgency and Putin obliged. Of course, that's just about the opposite of what happened, so the comparison doesn't work.

That doesn't mean if the US sent 100,000 troops backed by heavy armour and air support into Somalia, bombed some of their cities to dust and killed thousands of their citizens, that the reaction of the West would be as sympathetic to Somalia as it is to Ukraine. It just means that's a hypothetical and arguing a hypothetical as if it was a reality isn't going to fly.

I don't say this to extend this aspect of the debate but hopefully to truncate it as it's not going anywhere.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 13:57 #696990
Quoting Baden
The Somalia angle might make sense if what happened in Ukraine was that Zelensky asked Putin for a couple of hundred Russian troops to help suppress an insurgency and Putin obliged. Of course, that's just about the opposite of what happened, so the comparison doesn't work.


Except this is exactly what Putin said did in fact happen in the Donbass. But of course, when the US says it, one is obvious propaganda - which it is - and the other is, uh, good guys being good guys, helping friends out.

When US oil interests are at stake, well, we can really believe that help is called for. And that the US is obliged to help, despite the evidence being that every place on the planet they fight in they leave a fucking crater and a mountain of dead.

How goddamn hard is it not to apologize for US Empire.
Michael May 18, 2022 at 14:08 #696992
Quoting Streetlight
Except this is exactly what Putin said did in fact happen in the Donbass. But of course, when the US says it, one is obvious propaganda - which it is - and the other is, uh, good guys being good guys, helping friends out.


Well, Zelensky didn't ask Russia to invade, but the Somalian President did welcome U.S. troops, so I don't really understand what you're trying to say here.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 14:09 #696994
Quoting ssu
There are so few participating on this forum, that single opinions effect where the discussion goes and what points are made.


They are also extremely toxic and disgusting, openly wishing the death of folks, calling you a Nazi, me a rapist... I understand their nervousness. They chose the wrong camp and are panicking now.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 14:10 #696995
Quoting Michael
Well, Zelensky didn't ask Russia to invade


According to Putin, he was invited by Russian-speaking populations who were - and this is actually true - getting fucked by the Ukrainian central government. But go on, make your apologies.
Baden May 18, 2022 at 14:14 #696999
Reply to Streetlight

I couldn't care less what Putin or NATO say about it. The comparison is valid or invalid based on reality not what competing propagandists say. America has either launched a massive invasion of Somalia akin to Russia's invasion of Ukraine or it hasn't. There have been thousands of civilians killed or there haven't. The government either invited them or they didn't. There's some leeway for ambiguity there but not so much we can't make our own judgements confidently based on the evidence available, no?
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 14:15 #697000
Quoting Baden
The government either invited them or they didn't.


And the populations of Donbass invited Putin or they didn't.

Here's what you're missing: it doesn't fucking matter. If the US is sending troops overseas, they shouldn't be. Because nothing but suffering and death follows. It's that simple. Stop. Apologizing. For. US. Empire.
Michael May 18, 2022 at 14:17 #697002
Quoting Streetlight
According to Putin, he was invited by Russians-speaking populations who were - and this is actually true - getting fucked by the Ukrainian central government. But go on, make your apologies.


What apologies? I'm just drawing a factual distinction between a government requesting military assistance from a foreign power and foreign power starting a war.

Your argument would work better if you compared Russia's invasion to the U.S-led invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and then we can argue whether or not Putin's/Bush's invasions were legitimate.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 14:18 #697003
Quoting Michael
What apologies? I'm just drawing a factual distinction between a government requesting military assistance from a foreign power and foreign power starting a war.


And I'm drawing a factual distinction between a government requesting military assistance from a foreign power and a local population - or at least part of a local population - requesting military assistance from a foreign power.
Baden May 18, 2022 at 14:18 #697004
Reply to Streetlight

Nothing I said involved taking a position on U.S. troops in Somalia. It's consistent to be absolutely against that move and recognize that the US hasn't launched a massive invasion of the country, that there aren't tens of thousands of U.S. troops there, that they're not bombing cities there or trying to overthrow the government etc. Maybe they will. That's also irrelevant.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 14:19 #697006
Quoting Baden
It's consistent to be absolutely against that move and recognize that the US hasn't launched a massive invasion of the country,


No, it's a special military operation.
Isaac May 18, 2022 at 14:29 #697011
Quoting Baden
Nothing I said involved taking a position on U.S. troops in Somalia. It's consistent to be absolutely against that move


And yet people aren't. That's it. That's literally all there is to the use of the Somali flag here.

People were openly and vociferously against Putin's invasion of Ukraine - even before the death toll mounted - and they enthusiastically waived their little flags to show it.

No one. No one waives little flags for the countries the US wrecks. Not Somalia, not Yemen, not Iraq...

That's the point. Nothing more.
Baden May 18, 2022 at 14:31 #697012
Reply to Streetlight

We call it a lollipop for all I care. It's irrelevant. What is relevant is the differences in the circumstances. When and if the U.S. send hundreds of thousands of troops along with heavy armour and air support into Somalia and kill tens of thousands of Somalis, I'll gauge Western reaction then and judge hypocrisy or lack of it on that basis.
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 14:33 #697013
Quoting Baden
We call it a lollipop for all I care. It's irrelevant. What is relevant is the differences in the circumstances. When and if the U.S. send hundreds of thousands of troops along with heavy armour and air support into Somalia and kill tens of thousands of Somalis, I'll gauge Western reaction then and judge hypocrisy or lack of it on that basis.


Why would the US do that when they can get Ukrainians to die en masse on their behalf? A frankly worse thing to do.
Baden May 18, 2022 at 14:34 #697015
Reply to Isaac

The vast majority of people would never have heard of Ukraine if all that happened was what's happening in Somalia. You used an example because it was current not because it was apt in order to make a point that has some truth to it. But it's not as if there aren't tons of better examples, e.g. Yemen as you mentioned.
Baden May 18, 2022 at 14:38 #697018
Reply to Streetlight

I don't know, why did Big Bird kill Snuffleupagus? What is the relevance of this to anything I said?
Streetlight May 18, 2022 at 14:45 #697026
Reply to Baden You said you'd judge Western reaction and hypocrisy if they send troops. And if they do worse? Like getting others to die for them? Off the hook?
Baden May 18, 2022 at 14:52 #697030
Reply to Streetlight

I said I'd judge that reaction when and if that comparison becomes valid. My argument is against the validity of the specific comparison, not against Western complicity in the war in Ukraine. Separately, I've already put the West on the hook for helping to cause and extend the war. That was probably the main argument I've made during this discussion.
neomac May 18, 2022 at 15:32 #697049
Putin sees no threat from NATO expansion, warns against military build-up :chin:
source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-calls-finland-sweden-joining-nato-mistake-with-far-reaching-consequences-2022-05-16/
frank May 18, 2022 at 15:58 #697060
Reply to Baden
The internet is inundated with false information about Ukraine.

Is there any way this forum could be an oasis from that? For instance, could there be a standard of at least trying to present correct information?

A couple of the posters here have admitted they aren't interested in being truthful. Could we sanction that?
Baden May 18, 2022 at 17:03 #697109
Reply to frank

Posters should argue in good faith. But if we were to mod everything we thought was false, we'd not unjustifiably be accused of censorship and bias.
frank May 18, 2022 at 17:09 #697112
Quoting Baden
Posters should argue in good faith. But if we were to mod everything we thought was false, we'd not unjustifiably be accused of censorship and bias.


If someone argues for several pages that Russia invaded Ukraine to control Nazis, we know that poster is a troll. Couldn't we at least identify them as such? Like with a T over their avatar?
Isaac May 18, 2022 at 17:32 #697121
Quoting Baden
The vast majority of people would never have heard of Ukraine if all that happened was what's happening in Somalia.


That's kind of the point. 4,000 Ukrainians killed since the war began (UN figures). 350,000 children on the point of starvation in Somalia (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs figures) - 258,000 died in the same conditions in 2011, so it's no exaggeration. They're asking for $1.42 billion, a fraction of what the US alone has spent on Ukraine.

And America sends soldiers...

But it's not really about America, it's about the mindless jingoistic faddishness of the media-glamour vomited up time and again, on demand whenever Western powers need an excuse, distraction, new yachts... whatever.

So yeah, the Somali flag is symbolic (I said as much in response to @Streetlight's post which started the whole thing), but it's got nothing to do with the actual specific details of the military action.
Baden May 18, 2022 at 17:32 #697122
Reply to frank

Much as this Mark-of-Cain-for-Ukraine-Nazi-thesis-perpetrators sounds like fun, I think Big Bird will probably be against it.

Anyhow, the vitriol on this thread does nothing for its quality is all I'll say.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 17:35 #697124
Quoting frank
If someone argues for several pages that Russia invaded Ukraine to control Nazis, we know that poster is a troll. Couldn't we at least identify them as such? Like with a T over their avatar?


But then, if we already know who's trolling, do we need some infamous mark? Can't we just not feed them, as @SophistiCat is saying?

The discussion died down a long time ago, in any case. Now it's a zombie thread. It's not like we're going anywhere engaging the "peace lovers".
frank May 18, 2022 at 17:37 #697125
Quoting Olivier5
But then, if we already know who's trolling, do we need some infamous mark? Can't we just not feed them, as SophistiCat is saying?


I was just thinking of ways to discourage it. I get your point.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 17:41 #697126
Reply to frank There's another solution: fight with the proverbial pig in the proverbial mud.

I used to be good at that. :-)
frank May 18, 2022 at 17:46 #697128
Reply to Olivier5 :grin: Or just go somewhere else. :up:
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 17:49 #697130
Quoting frank
Or just go somewhere else. :up:


:up:
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 20:00 #697167
Or just post interesting material... :-)


Ukraine's triumphant rhetoric faces limits on the ground
According to experts, foreign weapons deliveries are not enough to sustainably push back Russian forces in the Donbas and Southern Ukraine.

By Emmanuel Grynszpan, Le Monde
Published on May 17, 2022

Ukraine dreams of a total liberation of its territory, not only of the areas occupied since February 24, but also of the "separatist" Donbas and Crimea, annexed in 2014. Successive Russian tactical setbacks, and the stalemate in the battle for Donbas over the past month and a half are the source of a triumphant discourse in Kyiv. Top Ukrainian military intelligence official, general Kyrylo Budanov, told Sky News on Saturday, May 14, "the breaking point will be in the second part of August", and "most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year (...) As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and Crimea."

Last week, Defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov declared the war was "entering a new long-term phase," in which Russian forces will take a defensive posture to hold captured territory. Moscow first failed to storm Kyiv in early March, and to surround the bulk of Ukrainian troops in Donbas in April.

The influx of Western military could encourage or accelerate a shift in favor of Ukrainian forces. U.S. President Joe Biden signed a $40 billion Ukraine aid package on May 9. Ukraine's Western allies have provided around 120 long-range guns, which are technically capable of attacking Russian positions beyond the front lines.

'Going on the offensive is expensive'

For Alexander Musienko, Ukrainian military expert, there is no doubt a major Ukrainian counterattack will take place. "This counter-attack will depend on the weapons that will be supplied by the West, this is a key point. We are talking about Caesar guns, which are of excellent quality; it is very important for us to be able to use them. We will also have the Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer and the American Himars and M270 multiple rocket launchers which have a greater range than Russian artillery. It's just an extra three to five kilometers, but it makes a big difference. It's enough for Ukrainian forces to hold secure positions while hitting the opponent's firing positions."Mr. Musienko also emphasized the key role that "weapons more specifically intended for the offensive, such as attack drones, armored vehicles and tanks of Soviet design that will be provided by the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and Poland would play."

Other observers are more cautious in their predictions. "Weapon deliveries are crucial for rebuilding the Ukrainian defense of tomorrow. On the other hand, I doubt that they will have a significant influence on the battlefield" said military expert specializing in Russian defense Pierre Grasser. "Overall, I think it is a bit too late to influence the battle of Donbas that is taking shape: I can see Severodonetsk being surrounded in the next few days. Moscow is pushing forward now and will slow down in the summer. On the other hand, the arrival of new Ukrainian units will take place in the summer. In the meantime, the troops locked in combat since the beginning are holding the line and, for the last few weeks, it has been difficult. And even if this Russian offensive were to get bogged down, the Ukrainian equipment would hardly allow for serious counterattacks. Going on the offensive is expensive, because the losses would be very difficult to replace."

SophistiCat May 18, 2022 at 20:29 #697178
Quoting Baden
Posters should argue in good faith. But if we were to mod everything we thought was false, we'd not unjustifiably be accused of censorship and bias.


These posters (Street, Isaac, Benkei) are not just arguing in bad faith. They are trolling and intentionally derailing the thread. They made it clear from the start that they are not interested in the actual topic, and instead want continue to talk about what they talk about in every other political thread: the villainy of US, the evils of capitalism, etc.

Quoting Olivier5
Can't we just not feed them


Apparently not...
Benkei May 18, 2022 at 21:13 #697216
Reply to SophistiCat Seems to me that the bad faith emanates from those who have to pigeonhole others as "trolls" as an excuse not to engage arguments. I've had perfectly fine discussions with ssu on this thread because he doesn't have a kindergarten understanding of international relations. We still disagree. Not the end of the world.

For others it appears very difficult to separate criticism of Western contributory negligence from Putin apologism.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 21:39 #697233
Russian recruiting offices attacked with Molotov cocktails
Twelve fires have targeted buildings used for army recruitment, as testimonies of army reservists receiving "invitations" to report build up.

By Benoît Vitkine (Moscow, correspondent)
Posted today at 2:00 p.m.

In the middle of the night on May 4, in the center of Nizhnevartovsk, a city of just under 300,000 inhabitants located in northern Siberia, an apparently young man walks with a determined step. His face hidden under a hood and a mask, a plastic bag in his hand, he heads for Peace Street, 78. Methodically, he pulls out seven glass bottles and lines them up on a sidewalk corner. Then, perfectly calm, he lights his Molotov cocktails one by one and throws them at the door and windows of the military registration office that is there.

Not a single word is spoken, and it is impossible to trace the video, which appeared the next day on social networks. There is nothing to identify the man with the Molotov cocktails or the accomplice who films him. On May 13, the police reported having arrested two suspects, remanded in custody for two months. But unlike the usual arrests of "saboteurs" and "spies", very much staged with a lot of Nazi symbols, no details were given.

The case of Nizhnevartovsk is not isolated. In Tcherepovets, in the Vologda region (north-west), the same scenario occurred on May 12, with attackers a little less effective. They had to try twice to detonate their Molotov cocktails. The facade of the voenkomat (the military office) nevertheless caught fire.

In other similar cases, the perpetrators remain hidden. An understandable element knowing the very heavy penalties incurred. Only surveillance cameras, when installed, provide an overview of the facts. Otherwise, only partially charred facades remain, the photos of which begin to circulate in the early morning. In all, since the beginning of the "special operation" on February 24, twelve fires or attempts to burn such buildings have been listed in the local media.

The figure of twelve seems important, but it should be put into perspective: Russia has just under 1,500 voenkomat. This name, contraction of "military commissariat", is inherited from the Soviet period. The role of the institution is to manage the recruitment of contractors for the army at the local level, to organize conscription and to keep the list of men who can be mobilized up to date. ...

If it is to be seen as a mode of protest against the conflict, in the same way as the posters or the tags visible in Russian cities, the target, as well as the chronology, are telling. The first attack dates back to February 28, but there has been a clear acceleration since the beginning of May. The latest, in the suburbs of Moscow, was perpetrated on the night of May 17 to 18. ...

More and more elements show an intensification of the work of these military offices, which certain Russian sites in exile go so far as to compare to an “underground mobilization”.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 21:54 #697239
Quoting SophistiCat
Apparently not...


Maybe it's harder for me to give up on a discussion than it should be. In any case you've long adopted the only sane and effective approach re. our most "peace-loving" friends, and I respect that.
ssu May 18, 2022 at 21:56 #697241
Quoting Streetlight
Well that was a war on terror conducted by the French. Who deserved every dead Frenchman killed by an Algerian.

?

I think you are referring to the Algerian war, not the Algerian Civil war of 1991- 2002. The Algerian FLN wasn't at all islamist (or what we would call now islamist).

The civil war happened when the Algerian military made a coup when rulers didn't accept that the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) would have victory in the elections. Unlike in Mali, France didn't play an active role in the war and the only Frenchmen killed were those killed by the Armed Islamic Group (GIA). GIA was far more active in killing FIS members and Algerian civilians than the soldiers of the Algerian military. FIS didn't attack France.

Hence the dead Frenchmen killed by Algerians (GIA) in this war were in 1994 four French embassy workers, in 1995 (killed or wounded) users of the Paris metro, passers by on the Arc de Triomphe, and some in a Jewish school. Only ten killing ten were killed, but scores were wounded (about 200 people). In 1996 four were killed in Paris by a car bomb. Earlier one person in a hijacked Air France plane had been killed the organization's hijackers.

The connection between GIA and the Algerian junta seems to have been clear to the French as Chirac refused to meet with Algerian ministers after the 1995 bombings, openly saying that the GIA could have been manipulated by the Algerian secret services. Such allegations were actually widespread.

Algerian civil would be a prime example were the insurgents are successfully divided and the most bloodthirsty extremist cabal then turns the public sentiment against the insurgents.

ssu May 18, 2022 at 22:01 #697242
Quoting Olivier5
I understand their nervousness. They chose the wrong camp and are panicking now.

I'm not sure about that how much panic there is. It's just usually that when you don't have anything to say, any actual objections on the topic, anything to counter the arguments, some people then resort to ad hominems.
Olivier5 May 18, 2022 at 22:09 #697246
Reply to ssu Street shows signs of worsening agitation. I'm afraid he's gona blow a gasket.
ssu May 18, 2022 at 22:15 #697247
Quoting Olivier5
Street clearly shows signs of worsening agitation. I'm afraid he's gona blow a gasket.

Maybe.

Quoting Benkei
I've had perfectly fine discussions with ssu on this thread because he doesn't have a kindergarten understanding of international relations. We still disagree. Not the end of the world.

And sometimes we have agreed on issues. Besides, if people can make myself to change my opinion / views, learn something or see something from a different perspective, what could be more beneficial?
Apollodorus May 19, 2022 at 00:08 #697294
Quoting neomac
I quoted you not only Wikipedia but ethnogenesis studies on the Crimean Tatars, that prove Crimean Tatars' origins were pre-Mongol.


Hilarious. You must be attending the same second-rate kindergarten as the other two. Or maybe CIA-NATO bots come in packs of three. As the poet says, “bad things come in threes” .... :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

The truth of the matter is that there is very little genetic difference between Mongols and Turkic people like the Tatars. They all originated from the same place.

Recent linguistic, genetic and archaeological evidence suggests that the earliest Turkic peoples descended from agricultural communities in Northeastern China and wider Northeast Asia, who moved westwards into Mongolia in the late 3rd millennium BC, where they adopted a pastoral lifestyle. By the early 1st millennium BC, these peoples had become equestrian nomads. – Wikipedia


Essentially, Turkic peoples were peoples originally from the region comprising South Siberia and Mongolia. In other words, Mongols were from Mongolia proper, and Turkic people were Mongols from adjacent areas.

As the Mongols proper (i.e., Mongols from Mongolia) expanded their rule westward, they became increasingly “Turkified”, so that eventually most “Mongol” invaders were in fact Turkic.

For example, when Genghis Khan divided his empire among his four sons, his eldest son Jochi inherited the westernmost part with 4,000 Mongol troops. Later he had an army of nearly 500,000, virtually all of whom were Turkic. Genghis Khan’s grandson Berke became ruler of the Kipchak Khanate which was almost entirely Turkic, etc., etc.

Turkic peoples looked like the Mongols, spoke a language that was identical or closely related to, and mutually intelligible with Mongolian, and had the same nomadic culture with horses and bows and arrows that they used to attack sedentary Slavic populations.

There were several Mongol-Turkic invasion waves including Bulgars, Pechenegs, Cumans, and Kipchaks, followed by Mongols, with later waves pushing earlier ones further and further west, or assimilating them in the process. This also holds for areas now known as Russia and Ukraine.

To indigenous Russians and Ukrainians there was no difference between Mongols, Turkic people, and Tatars. The term “Tatar” referred to the non-Slavic, Mongol and Turkic tribes that invaded the region in the Middle Ages. Crimean Tatars are a subgroup of the Tatars and are, by definition, Turkic, i.e, closely related to the Mongols. You can see that for yourself if you take a look at a picture of Turkish president Erdogan!

Historically, the term Tatars (or Tartars) was applied to anyone originating from the vast Northern and Central Asian landmass then known as Tartary – Wikipedia


This is precisely why they are called, and call themselves, “Tatars”.

The original inhabitants of Crimea were the Tauri who lived mainly in the southern highlands while the lowlands were invaded by a succession of various tribes. But by the time of the Mongol invasions, Crimea was controlled by Russia who later took it back from the Mongols and Turks.

Obviously, as the Tatars enslaved the local population (consisting of Greeks, Slavs, etc.) and raped their women, modern-day Tatars are mixed-race with various amounts of Mongol-Turkic DNA. This is why some look Mongolian, some look European, and others look mixed. And they’re currently a small MINORITY (about 10%) in Crimea while the majority are ethnic Russian.

In any case, none of this shows that “Crimea belongs to Ukraine”!

Quoting ssu
But Russia didn't intervene or come to the help of Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked in the Nagorno-Karabach. It actually had sold weapons to Azerbaijan. And is all but happy using the divide and rule tactics in the Caucasus.


"Divide and rule tactics in the Caucasus"? Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at loggerheads for ages!

There were already fights between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis in 1905. The reason was that Azerbaijanis were Muslim fanatics who had joined Turkey's dream of rebuilding the Ottoman Empire.

See also the Khilafat Movement - Wikipedia

Before that, it goes back to centuries of clashes between local Armenian Christians and Muslim-Turkic invaders. Nothing to do with Russian "divide-and-rule" tactics. If anything, it's got to do with Turkey who's still trying to revive the Ottoman Empire and the Caliphate.

As I've explained to you many times before, Turkey has been aspiring to create a "Turkish world from the Adriatic to the Great Wall of China" since the 1990s which is why it has founded the Organization of Turkic States, comprising Turkic countries like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and Uzbekistan.

From the Adriatic Sea to the Great Wall of China – TEPAV

The idea, of course, was promoted by US state secretary Kissinger as part of established US policy of containing and encircling Russia, and keeping it not only "out of Europe" as stated by NATO, but also out of Asia. Which pretty much exposes NATO's true intentions .... :smile:

Quoting Olivier5
There is a reason why Ukrainians don't want to live under Putin's boot.


Most of the world don't want to live under America's boot, either.

Quoting ASmallTalentForWar
My main problem with US support of the Ukrainian Conflict is that the United States is the largest and most committed arms dealer in the world and NATO, as far as we view it, is an international protection racket - war is a racket, full stop - so it feels like we'll end up with a divided Ukraine anyway, but one that required the devastation of the nation and a mountain of Ukrainian and Russian casualties.


Good point. People tend to forget that the main purpose of US foreign policy is to promote US business especially as dictated by oil and defense lobbies.

Incidentally, US State Department figures show that between 2014 and 2016 U.S arms exports to the EU were worth $62.9 billion. EU arms exports to the U.S were only about $7.6 billion. And EU arms imports from the US are growing, and growing fast. If the EU now starts buying oil and gas from the US as well, we can see how this serves the interests of America’s global empire.

And I agree that a quick Russian victory in Ukraine would have saved thousands of lives and many cities and villages that are now just heaps of dust and rubble. It's difficult to see what Zelensky's actual "plan" is. A ruined and bankrupt country that will be taken over by Western corporations and the local oligarch mafia that are currently sunbathing in Cyprus, Israel, or Miami while waiting for the war to end?
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 00:17 #697298
Reply to ssu I'd like you to know I didn't read any of this. Not a word. If I wanted a second-hand Wikipedia summary I'd do it myself. However, why do you think Algeria was in such a shitty position to begin with? Well, because it had been plundered and turned to shit by the countrymen of a certain poster here. Everything follows from that.
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 01:02 #697304
Quoting Isaac
That's kind of the point. 4,000 Ukrainians killed since the war began (UN figures). 350,000 children on the point of starvation in Somalia (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs figures) - 258,000 died in the same conditions in 2011, so it's no exaggeration. They're asking for $1.42 billion, a fraction of what the US alone has spent on Ukraine.

And America sends soldiers...

But it's not really about America, it's about the mindless jingoistic faddishness of the media-glamour vomited up time and again, on demand whenever Western powers need an excuse, distraction, new yachts... whatever.


This is exactly it.
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 03:39 #697341
Oops.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1527092111195226114?t=4aJHaYj9gZy3NsxYz4B4qg&s=19[/tweet]

These are the demented murderous fucking clowns that people here are falling over themselves to defend as goodies against Russian baddies.

These people are so used to treating plots of land beyond their borders as their personal fiefdoms that they can't keep straight which one their imperial designs are currently bearing on.
Benkei May 19, 2022 at 04:57 #697355
Reply to Olivier5 Which is unfortunate, since he's often a very knowledgeable contributor. I'd invite you to look at his post history, particularly things older than 2 years when he was more mellow.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 05:24 #697357
Quoting SophistiCat
They made it clear from the start that they are not interested in the actual topic, and instead want continue to talk about what they talk about in every other political thread: the villainy of US, the evils of capitalism, etc.


The 'topic' is the Ukraine crisis. Says it right at the top of the page. It's not 'how bad do we think Putin is', nor is it 'who's winning right now'.

The Ukraine crisis is a complex geopolitical situation involving more than two parties. Even at the most superficial level possible the US are involved in arming Ukraine. At the level of basic adult conversation we'd accept that Ukraine's propaganda war is being fought substantially in Western countries, largely for the purposes of securing military aid...

Then there's the terms of the American and European loans, the extent to which NATO figures in Putin's address, the fact the the whole war started (back in 2014) as a conflict in Ukraine between support for Russia and support for Europe, the fact that the US were involved in that initiating event, and the degree to which that figures in Putin's propaganda.

All this is simply the facts of the case prior to any opinion about it.

To say that America and Europe are not part of the "actual topic" is itself a political opinion within the topic. All you're trying to do here is make political opinions you personally don't like seem as if they don't deserve to be discussed. It's a pathetic ruse which undermines the power of this exact tool for political opinions which do, in fact, not deserve to be discussed (like Nazism).
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 05:27 #697361
Quoting ssu
It's just usually that when you don't have anything to say, any actual objections on the topic, anything to counter the arguments, some people then resort to ad hominems.


Take a look back at the posts of @Olivier5 (the person to whom you are replying here) and @Christoffer, and no few of your own, and tell me seriously if you still want to stand by the whole 'ad hominem=nothing to say' theory. Shall I quote them for you?
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 06:16 #697374
Reply to Benkei I am not really interested in reading the posts of a person who supports terrorism and mass murder, thank you.
Benkei May 19, 2022 at 06:17 #697375
Reply to Olivier5 Which he doesn't so it's weird that's your take away.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 06:18 #697376
Quoting Streetlight
why do you think Algeria was in such a shitty position to begin with? Well, because it had been plundered and turned to shit by the countrymen of a certain poster here. Everything follows from that.


I think this idea is central to the way this topic is being discussed. Western powers have so much blood on their hands from colonialism onward that they are permanently stained by it. If they were now some third world states with an unfortunate past, we might live and let live - mistakes were made but everybody who made them is dead now. But they're not. They're the wealthiest, most powerful nations on earth - an earth containing 800 million starving people. It's not complicated morality to say that if you've benefited from the impoverishment of other countries you owe them a debt until the field is levelled again.

The unwillingness to look into the historical causes of any situation, like Ukraine, was, of course, always solely to do with this unwillingness to confront the extent to which the wealth and power of today were built on the flagrant abuse of the past. What's particularly insidious this time is the effort to literally wipe that history from the debate. I think the combination of an easy cartoon villain, an oven-ready non-American hero, and the new language of dis- and mis- information have presented an opportunity to create a dangerous new narrative which says "all that's in the past now, the reality is a new fight of good vs evil and you must pick a side" where 'picking a side' involves absolving the 'goodies' of all their past wrongs (and letting them keep all the wealth and power they thereby gained in the process).

It's insidious because the framing of good vs evil attaches atonement for the past crimes of imperialism (even up to crimes of last week, yesterday, just now...) to one of only two mutually exclusive positions, the other of which is 'evil'. We can see that framing all over the rhetoric used here.

Yet the only reasonable answer to the complaint that "Oh it's always about the US, the west, capitalism..." is "Yes". It is always about the US, the West and capitalism.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 06:19 #697378
Reply to Benkei You should read his posts then, not I. I've read enough, you haven't.
Merkwurdichliebe May 19, 2022 at 06:21 #697379
Quoting frank
A couple of the posters here have admitted they aren't interested in being truthful.


That sounds honest on their part. Ironic

Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 06:22 #697380
Quoting Apollodorus
Most of the world don't want to live under America's boot, either.


Then why are so many trying to emigrate there, or in Europe?
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 06:25 #697381
Quoting Olivier5
Then why are so many try to emigrate there, or in Europe?


Because America itself is the place least under America's boot, obviously.

Fuck up everywhere else on the planet, then when those populations come fleeing to the one place you haven't completely fucked you say "why would they all come here if we're so bad?"

An argument that would be laughed off the page if it wasn't for people willing to repeat it.
Benkei May 19, 2022 at 06:26 #697383
Reply to Olivier5 Quote him. I've read every post in this thread. He's militantly anti-imperialist so support for mass murderers isn't in there.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 06:28 #697384
Reply to Benkei I am not interested. Have a good day.
Benkei May 19, 2022 at 06:30 #697385
Reply to Olivier5 So you can't prove he is what you say he is, you just like to make baseless accusations about people because they happen to disagree with you? Is that it?
Benkei May 19, 2022 at 06:36 #697391
Reply to Olivier5 No. How often have you accused others of "lying" in this thread? Why are you lying now and get aggressive when it gets called out?
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 06:42 #697395
Reply to Benkei I am telling the truth. Street has condoned terrorism against French people. It's up there, unless the mods deleted it.

That's how much the guy cares for human life, at least his web persona.
Benkei May 19, 2022 at 06:55 #697405
Reply to Olivier5 you mean this? Reply to Streetlight

Where the French were the colonial oppressor and he defines the French as terrorists and believes it was just the Algerians kicked them out? That's not supporting terrorism.

Edit; in not saying it's not a crude way of putting it but reading support for mass murderers and terrorists even in this thread is simply not there. I still read your posts even if I think most of them are not well thought out.

So, just as an example when you think another poster is lying, probably there's some misinterpretation going on. Try being charitable.
Merkwurdichliebe May 19, 2022 at 07:00 #697408
Quoting Isaac
Because America itself is the place least under America's boot, obviously.

Fuck up everywhere else on the planet, then when those populations come fleeing to the one place you haven't completely fucked you say "why would they all come here if we're so bad?"


It's only a matter of time before America's boot size grows so large that it begins stepping on its tail. Immigrants will be the first casualty.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 07:11 #697414
Quoting Benkei
. I still read your posts even if I think most of them are not well thought out.


You shouldn't really. They are wasted on you.
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 07:22 #697421
Quoting Isaac
Shall I quote them for you?


You seem to forget that I numerous times asked you and other trolls to stop involving yourself in discussions I had with others, you kept doing it, kept on writing low-quality bullshit, and since mods don't give a shit about this thread I just applied the same level of rhetoric that you people used since it seems it's the only kind of posts you people understand. And when I wrote a long correctly formulated argument against you, you just ignored it as irrelevant since you had nothing left to counter with, and instead tried to steer away from that failure to attack something else. You constantly quote me or refer to me over and over with low-quality shit and then complain about the low level you drag others down to. This is why I'm not active as much in here anymore, because I don't find it productive to discuss with people like you and since mods don't care about quality in here, I'll just counter low quality with the same quality. But you can't seem to get over anything, and you seem to forget your own rhetoric and posts. Maybe I shall do a compilation of both how wrong you've been compared to what has happened in this war, as well as all the times you upheld the low-quality posting and ad hominems you yourself whine about now.
SophistiCat May 19, 2022 at 07:24 #697424
Quoting Isaac
Because America


Sums up this discussion.
Merkwurdichliebe May 19, 2022 at 07:25 #697425
Quoting Olivier5
?Benkei
I am telling the truth. Street has condoned terrorism against French people. It's up there, unless the mods deleted it.

That's how much the guy cares for human life, at least his web persona.


I don't give a fuck about human life. Everything for me revolves around the mine gap.

But seriously, don't be crazy, if Street actually condoned terrorism, with his conviction, he would be a terrorist. But he is only more intelligent than you, and it can be embarrassing when you get your ass handed to you, intellectually speaking.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 07:26 #697427
Quoting Merkwurdichliebe
But he is only more intelligent than you


And you can tell because?
Merkwurdichliebe May 19, 2022 at 07:26 #697429
Quoting SophistiCat
Because America — Isaac


Sums up this discussion.


Damn strait. America and the the rest, beginning with agreeable white europeans
Merkwurdichliebe May 19, 2022 at 07:30 #697431
Reply to Olivier5 Because i've read his posts for years. And very few on this forum can compete with his intellect. Why else do you think the moderators tolerate his belligerence.
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 07:30 #697432
Quoting Isaac
I think this idea is central to the way this topic is being discussed. Western powers have so much blood on their hands from colonialism onward that they are permanently stained by it. If they were now some third world states with an unfortunate past, we might live and let live - mistakes were made but everybody who made them is dead now. But they're not. They're the wealthiest, most powerful nations on earth - an earth containing 800 million starving people. It's not complicated morality to say that if you've benefited from the impoverishment of other countries you owe them a debt until the field is levelled again.

The unwillingness to look into the historical causes of any situation, like Ukraine, was, of course, always solely to do with this unwillingness to confront the extent to which the wealth and power of today were built on the flagrant abuse of the past. What's particularly insidious this time is the effort to literally wipe that history from the debate. I think the combination of an easy cartoon villain, an oven-ready non-American hero, and the new language of dis- and mis- information have presented an opportunity to create a dangerous new narrative which says "all that's in the past now, the reality is a new fight of good vs evil and you must pick a side" where 'picking a side' involves absolving the 'goodies' of all their past wrongs (and letting them keep all the wealth and power they thereby gained in the process).

It's insidious because the framing of good vs evil attaches atonement for the past crimes of imperialism (even up to crimes of last week, yesterday, just now...) to one of only two mutually exclusive positions, the other of which is 'evil'. We can see that framing all over the rhetoric used here.

Yet the only reasonable answer to the complaint that "Oh it's always about the US, the west, capitalism..." is "Yes". It is always about the US, the West and capitalism.


I don't know how to put it better than this.

As for the above conversation, I don't support terrorism, but I sure as day support counter-terrorism.
Wayfarer May 19, 2022 at 08:29 #697471
The next master stroke of Putin is to revive the Russian car manufacturing industry and the much-ridiculed Moskvich sedan. Lessons in how to re-animated a corpse.


User image
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 08:59 #697483
Reply to Christoffer

The fact that you're to egotistical to tell the difference between a judgement of yours and a fact is not itself an argument for engaging in abusive language though, is it?

Quoting Christoffer
the low-quality posting and ad hominems you yourself whine about now.


I'm not whining about anything. I've no problem with the ad-hominems, it's a passionate topic, bound to raise some robust language - completely appropriate to the emotional scale of the issue, I think. I do have a fascination with hypocrisy - you lot complaining about ad-hominems when you're engaged in them to absolutely no lesser an extent than everyone else. I can't figure out how you're maintaining that level of dissonance.

This...

Quoting Christoffer
I don't find it productive to discuss with people like you and since mods don't care about quality in here, I'll just counter low quality with the same quality.


...for example, just doesn't make any sense. I mean, it's a direct contradiction from the outset, but even if it weren't, the idea of countering low quality with low quality doesn't even follow. How is low quality a counter to low quality?

And this...

Quoting Christoffer
... and then complain about the low level you drag others down to.


...is just bizarre since I made no such complaint, and I can't even see how it would help your narrative if I had. I mean it would make me hypocritical, but you just included your own hypocrisy (fighting low quality with low quality) as part of the same storyline.

It's quite the tangled web you weave.
Merkwurdichliebe May 19, 2022 at 09:04 #697486
Quoting Streetlight
As for the above conversation, I don't support terrorism, but I sure as day support counter-terrorism.


Like drone strikes! Right?
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 09:14 #697490
Quoting Merkwurdichliebe
I don't give a fuck about human life.


Some people here do, and they might found your cynicism offensive. Just so you know.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 09:39 #697500
Reply to Streetlight

What worries me is whether this tactic - so successful in the mainstream media - will be extended. How soon until we start to hear the same line being trotted out to deny, say, debt relief - "the slave trade was all in the past, water under the bridge - these African nations are so warlike, you wouldn't want to be supporting them would you...?".

Or to support orchestrated regime change every time there's a hint of socialism in South America - "we laundered their drug money and propped up criminal rackets ages ago, all irrelevant now, water under the bridge - you wouldn't want to side with the same people who abstained from voting against Putin would you...?".

Any move to end systemic racism - "yes we horrendously mistreated African Americans, but that's got nothing to do with the current problem, all water under the bridge - you wouldn't want to side with those viscous street gangs now would you...?"

And so on. Once a narrative's been established it can just be picked of the shelf for use next time and it sounds so comfortingly familiar that it's got its own appeal beyond the convenience even of the excuse it offers.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 10:15 #697517
Reply to Isaac You mean, the way the Brits forgot all their crimes in Ireland?

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/english-ignorance-about-ireland-just-isn-t-funny-anymore-1.3677267
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 10:20 #697521
Quoting Olivier5
You mean, the way the Brits forgot all their crimes in Ireland?


Yes. I mean exactly that. Are you suggesting that was a good thing done there?
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 10:26 #697528
Reply to Isaac It's done every single day. The contempt, the ignorance, the crass stupidity with which the UK treats a neighbouring country as if it was their doormat. Decolonize Ireland already.

So you see? You don't need to go all the way to Somalia or South America to find some example of imperialism. You can just look right under your nose, at the fabric of your own country. How it bears the mark of the empire. How eager the English are to forget what the Irish want to remember. And how it's now unraveling.
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 10:52 #697535
Reply to Isaac

My attempts at low-quality generally lead me to longer better-formulated posts. I generally fail at being consistently low-quality.

And harsh language, swears etc. are not ad hominems. I'm guilty of many swears, and that doesn't mean anything more than focusing the text to make the point stronger and more clear on where I stand. Low-quality, however, means making little to no argument, short, sarcastic, down-talking remarks of little value to the discussion but more focused on the ego of the poster. Going back in this thread there's a clear pattern of long arguments being broken apart into strawmanned arrogant hit pieces by people generally not interested in actual discussions but more focused on bragging about their own supposed intellect and pushing their ideas, ideology, and convictions with no regard for actual understanding of other's arguments before replying.

Like, your first post in this thread is a sarcastic mock out of everyone seriously contemplating the risk of Russia invading Ukraine.

Quoting Isaac
What! Governments exaggerating a threat so that powerful industries can benefit. Sounds like some kind of crazy conspiracy theory to me.

Best just trust what the official experts have to say on the matter...

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/russia-ukraine-news-latest-today-nato-us-reject-putin-claims-withdrawl/

...so that's settled then. The experts say Russia is preparing for war and I'm sure the billions that the pharmaceuticalarms industry will make is just a coincidence.

Of course, you might find some experts disagreeing, but with none of you being military strategists, you wouldn't want to be 'doing your own research', would you?

Besides, have you not read the news? Those nasty truckers are funded by the Russians, best be on the safe side, lest they fund any more peaceful protestsdomestic terrorists.


The tone you set here is perhaps what sparks the quality to go down in a thread like this. I didn't start it, and neither did SSU or many others. Just like the invasion of Ukraine should be blamed on Russia for starting it, maybe soul-searching your own rhetoric would be good practice for you. Did you enter the discussion with respect or just arrogance? Do you think that a strong response to such arrogance is others' fault or your own? If you think it's others' fault, then you just seem to be along for the ride in order to trigger people and that's basically what a troll does.

I'm not innocent of getting down and dirty, but it usually comes as a response to something, while many others in here seem to have a tendency to just initiate a discussion with bad behavior, low-quality arrogant bully mentalities, or whatever. This, for me at least, puts these people, regardless of their knowledge of a subject, in a place where they become irrelevant interlocutors as they degrade the quality of the discussion. This is why I tried to call out to moderators to clean this shit up, but they don't care, possibly since this behavior is also conducted by moderators like Benkei as well.

So this thread is a cesspool that lost its smell of quality when these people went hard into such posts, and like trolls, triggering others until getting a response that they can point at and claim they're innocent of bad behavior. It's tiresome that this thread ended up in mostly only those kinds of back and forths, imagine if the moderators actually moderated this thread from the beginning instead of claiming "it's politics so the bar is higher". :shade:
boethius May 19, 2022 at 11:04 #697541
Quoting Olivier5
I don't give a fuck about human life.
— Merkwurdichliebe

Some people here do, and they might found your cynicism offensive. Just so you know.


Says the guy who thinks NATO handing Ukraine a few Nukes under the table to nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg is A. a good idea and B. Russia would be like "oh my, you got us! the ol' nukes under the table ploy, plausible deniability, we can't retaliate, untouchable".

Quoting ssu
I'm not sure about that how much panic there is. It's just usually that when you don't have anything to say, any actual objections on the topic, anything to counter the arguments, some people then resort to ad hominems.


Oh, you mean ad hominems like:

Quoting Olivier5
?boethius That you are a professional propagandist.


Quoting Olivier5
It's just a form of escapism from the resident FSB influencer here, i.e. boethius. Nothing more.


Quoting Olivier5
?boethius I'm just pointing at what I perceive as an important difference between other "Ukraine antagonists" here and you: they are amateurs, while you're a professional, IMO.


As pathetic desperation of people that "don't have anything to say, any actual objections on the topic, anything to counter the arguments"?

Or ... not these ad hominems?
neomac May 19, 2022 at 11:04 #697542
Quoting Apollodorus
The truth of the matter is that there is very little genetic difference between Mongols and Turkic people like the Tatars.

Quoting Apollodorus
In other words, Mongols were from Mongolia proper, and Turkic people were Mongols from adjacent areas.


You didn't provide any evidence to support these claims. I have evidences that question them. Indeed Turkic people may be genetically very different from Mongols:

Only two out of five Siberian Tatar groups studied show partial genetic similarity to other populations calling themselves Tatars: Isker–Tobol Siberian Tatars are slightly similar to Kazan Tatars, and Yalutorovsky Siberian Tatars, to Crimean Tatars. The approach based on the full sequencing of the Y chromosome reveals only a weak (2%) Central Asian genetic trace in the Siberian Tatar gene pool, dated to 900 years ago. Hence, the Mongolian hypothesis of the origin of Siberian Tatars is not supported in genetic perspective.
Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0026893316060029

In particular another study shows: The Turks and Germans were equally distant to all three Mongolian populations [...] These results confirmed the lack of strong genetic relationship between the Mongols and the Turks despite the close relationship of their languages (Altaic group) and shared historical neighborhood. .
source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12753667/

So again the genetic link between Crimean Tatars and Mongols is highly questionable also through the reference to generic "Tatars" or "turkic people" group (assuming this was sufficient, which is not even the case!). This is even less surprising if one understands that the ethnonym "Tatar" may be highly equivocal: Frequently different peoples, at times ethnically not connected with each other, were called Tatars. Many historians and ethnologists in the 19th-20th centuries, following the Kazan missionaries, designate with the ethnonym Tatar (without definitions) the peoples who in the past were called Tatars by someone, for example, the ancient Tatars, and the Mongolo-Tatars, and the Kipchak Khanate Tatars and the modern Bulgaro-Tatars, all of them are just simply called Tatars. As a result these ethnically not connected or only partially connected Tatars were group identified. We find this identification in the monographs on the history of Tatars, and in the "Tatar" sections of the school and high school textbooks written by some Russian, and sometimes by foreign authors. It resulted in rude distortions in the study of the ethnogenesis for the specific Tatars
Source: https://www.podgorski.com/main/tatar-origins.html

Quoting Apollodorus
The original inhabitants of Crimea were the Tauri who lived mainly in the southern highlands while the lowlands were invaded by a succession of various tribes. But by the time of the Mongol invasions, Crimea was controlled by Russia who later took it back from the Mongols and Turks.


Quoting Apollodorus
To indigenous Russians and Ukrainians there was no difference between Mongols, Turkic people, and Tatars. The term “Tatar” referred to the non-Slavic, Mongol and Turkic tribes that invaded the region in the Middle Ages. Crimean Tatars are a subgroup of the Tatars and are, by definition, Turkic, i.e, closely related to the Mongols.


Dude you are desperately trying to support your claim that Crimean Tatars are "the Mongols of Crimea" (now you revised your claim "closely related to Mongols"! How closely?!) and suggested their strong link to Middle Age invaders of Russian lands (including Crimea, right?).
Unfortunately you didn't provide anything that supports those claims and contradicts what I said. Besides the fact that Tatar and Mongols can not be confused from a genetic and historical point of view [1], that Tatars were originally a confederation of Turkic nomadic tribes covering a huge territory which is consistent with their great genetic variability (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tartary#/media/File:1806_Cary_Map_of_Tartary_or_Central_Asia_-_Geographicus_-_Tartary-cary-1806.jpg), and that relying on blood purity is not only foolish but also gives a Nazi flavor to your theory matching ethnic groups with territorial claims (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_and_soil), the main problem is that you didn't provide any evidence specific to the Crimean Tatars in support of the idea that Crimea belongs to Russia more than to Crimean Tatars!

Concerning specifically the Crimean Tatars here are the claims you should address with pertinent evidences from the available literature:

- Crimean Tatars are the indigenous people of Crimea (not the Russians!) and it doesn't matter how pure their blood is for being considered indigenous (even actual Russians may have Tatar and Mongol genetic traces, Italians and Spaniards may have people with Arab ancestors yet they are not Arabs!). This is enough to say that, according to your theory, Crimean Tatars are the rightful owners of Crimea and not the Russians. Period.

- Crimean Tatars stemmed from merging different groups including pre-Mongol ethnic groups (like the Tauri, and others: Scythians, Goths, Byzantines, Genovese, later merging with Turkic groups such as Khazars, Kipchaks, Tatars and Ottoman Turks https://www.iccrimea.org/reports/genographic-results.html). The fact that Crimean Tatars' ethnogenesis took place in Crimea and consisted of several stages lasting over 2500 years is proved by genetic research showing that in the gene pool of the Crimean Tatars preserved both the initial component for more than 2.5 thousand years, and later in the northern steppe regions of the Crimea. (Source: https://us.edu.vn/en/Crimean_Tatar_people-0262024006)

- Crimea Tatars are not Mongols from a genetic point of view. This is a corollary of what I said before but here some recent genetic studies to confirm that once more:
1. 62% of the Crimean Tatars' genetic pool is not even of Asian origins! Source: https://www.iccrimea.org/reports/genographic-results.html
2. “The Westasian and Mediterranean genetic components (population of Asia Minor and Balkans) predominate in the gene pool of Crimea Tatars, the Eurasian steppe component is much fewer.” Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311805917_The_Tatars_of_Eurasia_peculiarity_of_Crimean_Volga_and_Siberian_Tatar_gene_pools
3. The Eurasian genetic influence concerns particularly a subgroup of Crimean Tatars:
“It is the most likely that discovered features of Steppe Crimean Tatars gene pool reflect the genetic contribution of medieval Eurasian Steppe nomads. The component predominant in Mountain and Coastal Crimean Tatars gene pools and in Crimean Greeks suggests that genetic contribution of East Mediterranean populations continued in Crimea for many centuries.”
Source: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/the-gene-pool-of-indigenous-crimean-populations-mediterranean-meets-eurasian-steppe/pdf


Conclusion: Wikipedia historical trivia (yours included) do not question but confirm that the ethnic stratification of Crimean Tatars relate to the period prior to, during and after the Mongol empire (which per se was already a multi-ethnic empire as many ancient empires were! And that is also why genetic evidence about “generic” Tatars wrt Mongols is neither very useful nor conclusive!), that is why they are not Mongols in a historical sense either!
So any assimilation of Crimean Tatars with Mongols or middle-age Mongolian-Tatar hordes is, to be kind, an oversimplification, partly based on historical misconceptions (arguably still supported by Russian propaganda [2]). And I would question also its relevance even if it was true! So if you are against any form of imperialism (at least the one that violates what belongs to the rightful owners), then you should oppose Russian imperialism in Crimea, instead of promoting it by spreading their lies about Crimean Tatars!


Quoting Apollodorus
And they’re currently a small MINORITY (about 10%) in Crimea while the majority are ethnic Russian.


Oh really?! Did you conveniently forget that they are a minority due to the Russification of the peninsula by Russian imperialism (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Ethnic_Population_of_Crimea_18th%E2%80%9321st_century.png, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De-Tatarization_of_Crimea), the kind of imperialism you claim to be opposing?! If you haven't, then you should oppose Russian imperialism in Crimea as much as you oppose NATO imperialism. Even more so with Russian imperialism, since Crimean Tatars have more problems with Russians than with NATO or Ukraine! (https://newlinesmag.com/essays/the-suffering-of-crimeas-tatars/ , https://theconversation.com/why-crimean-tatars-are-fearful-as-russia-invades-ukraine-178396)

[1]
The Tatars (/?t??t?rz/; Tatar: ????????, tatarlar, ???????, Crimean Tatar: tatarlar; Old Turkic: , romanized: Tatar) is an umbrella term for different Turkic ethnic groups bearing the name "Tatar".[34] Initially, the ethnonym Tatar possibly referred to the Tatar confederation. That confederation was eventually incorporated into the Mongol Empire when Genghis Khan unified the various steppe tribes.[35] Historically, the term Tatars (or Tartars) was applied to anyone originating from the vast Northern and Central Asian landmass then known as Tartary, a term which was also conflated with the Mongol Empire itself. More recently, however, the term has come to refer more narrowly to related ethnic groups who refer to themselves as Tatars or who speak languages that are commonly referred to as Tatar, namely Tatar by Volga Tatars (Tatars proper), Crimean Tatar by Crimean Tatars and Siberian Tatar by Siberian Tatars. The largest group amongst the Tatars by far are the Volga Tatars, native to the Volga-Ural region (Tatarstan and Bashkortostan), who for this reason are often also known as "Tatars" in Russian. They compose 53% of the population in Tatarstan. Their language is known as the Tatar language. As of 2010, there were an estimated 5.3 million ethnic Tatars in Russia.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars

[2]
[I]The firm belief that the Crimean Tatars were descendants of the Golden Horde, who settled on the peninsula in the first half of the 13th century, was firmly ingrained in the minds of many scholars. This myth appeared immediately after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 1783, and has since become firmly entrenched in official Russian and then Soviet historiography and continues to be replicated in the scientific literature. The falsifiers took the events related to the Horde period as the starting point of origin of the Crimean Tatars, which, in fact, is only a stage of a centuries-old, complex historical process.[/I]
Source: https://culture.voicecrimea.com.ua/en/ethnogenesis-of-the-crimean-tatars/
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 11:10 #697547
Quoting boethius
Says the guy who thinks NATO handing Ukraine a few Nukes under the table to nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg is A. a good idea


Stop lying. I never said it was a good idea. Only that if Russia nukes Ukraine, as you fantacized about, then Ukraine might be able to retaliate.

I genuinely believe you are on Putin's payroll. That's not an insult. In fact it's a compliment: at least you're getting paid for your lies, and your lies are much better crafted than others', more professional. You're the master of them all.

Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 11:30 #697556
Ah here we go, from Feburary:

"Somalia's leadership has made a swift reversal on an oil exploration deal signed with a US company. On Saturday, the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Abdirashid Mohamed Ahmed announced that production sharing agreements had been signed with US-based firm, Coastline Exploration Ltd. Ahmed said in a statement that the deal was "a huge moment" for the people of Somalia. But with the ink barely dry, both Somalia's president and prime minister announced the deal was off. In a statement, the office of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed said the deal was nullified. The presidential palace Villa Somalia tweeted that "it contravenes Presidential Decree 7/8/2021 which bans the inking of deals during elections so as to protect public resources from exploitation during elections."

Protecting public resources from exploitation? Time to be concerned about terrorists again!

https://m.dw.com/en/somalias-president-cans-us-oil-deal-hours-after-it-was-signed/a-60846562

---

It's not unlike that time last month when India, having refused to join in on Russian sanctions, all of a sudden, out of the blue, from completely nowhere, found themselves at the centre of US concern for "human rights abuses". Which of course it is up to it's neck in, but only used as a cugdel when American interests are not satisfied.

--

America is obviously very concerned with the poor people in Ukraine :sad:
ssu May 19, 2022 at 12:15 #697591
Quoting boethius
Oh, you mean ad hominems like


@Boethius, I'm responsible of what I write. And yes, others might get offended at the insults hurled at them and respond accordingly. The last time I got really pissed off was a guy that said that the Saur-revolution was a blessing for Afghanistan and it was the best thing that happened to the country. If someone says exactly the same things as Putin and never actually criticizes Russia, but acts like an apologist, I think it's fair to say that the person is a troll. Hence for example Streetlight has criticized what Russians have done in Ukraine, so he's not a Russian troll.

(In the military coup about 2 000 died and then repression was introduced to Afghanistan, which it had never before seen with something like 27 000 political prisoners being executed by the communists. And the well known response to this was the countryside going up in arms and the mujahideen emerging and over 40 years of war then continuing in the country.)

Quoting boethius
Says the guy who thinks NATO handing Ukraine a few Nukes under the table to nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg is A. a good idea


Quoting Olivier5
Stop lying. I never said it was a good idea. Only that if Russia nukes Ukraine, as you fantacized about, then Ukraine might be able to retaliate.


Let's remember that nobody was giving them nukes. They already had them as Ukraine had been part of the Soviet Union. And this is the one point people forget: as if the sole successor of the Soviet Union was Russia and none of the other republics had any claim to what had been an union of Soviet Republics.
ssu May 19, 2022 at 12:16 #697595
Quoting Streetlight
Ah here we go, from Feburary:


Well, if the new elected Somali government goes further with that US deal, you just have made your case then.
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 12:35 #697609
Reply to ssu "Elected"
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 12:37 #697610
Quoting ssu
They already had them


And they still have the know-how. Technically speaking, the Ukrainians could build nuclear missiles tomorrow. The problem would be access to military grade uranium or plutonium.
magritte May 19, 2022 at 12:44 #697614
Quoting Streetlight
America is obviously very concerned with the poor people in Ukraine


I don't get this refrain. You and I caring about all people is nice, but countries aren't you and I.

Why on Earth would any country be concerned with non-productive people who are an expensive drag to every nation? Being poor is an entirely different issue than countries not giving a shit. Poverty is a consequence of not contributing sufficient monetarily valued services or goods to the local economy.
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 12:45 #697618
Reply to magritte Uh, poor as in woe-is-me poor not poor as in poverty-poor.

But considering Ukraine is an economic basket-case and will be even more so now maybe the difference is not all that great tbf.
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 12:56 #697621
Quoting magritte
Why on Earth would any country be concerned with non-productive people who are an expensive drag to every nation? Being poor is an entirely different issue than countries not giving a shit. Poverty is a consequence of not contributing sufficient monetarily valued services or goods to the local economy.


Yet, nations like mine (Sweden) contribute to donations with little to no actual return in any kind of neoliberal capitalist sense, whatever so-called experts on Swedish foreign affairs in here say. Sweden has for a very long time been one of the largest contributors of donations to poor nations or nations in need of help. That goes against any idea that a nation must have some ulterior motive, it might just be that people vote for a better world and understand that helping others can be just about helping others. If people stare long enough into the void of the geopolitics of nations not giving a shit, it's easy to do a fallacy of believing every nation in the world follows that example. Just like many in here believe that every nation in the west follows the same neoliberal extremism as the US. I'm not saying Sweden is perfectly innocent in every international deal, but compared to the worst offenders of national egocentric politics, we're not at all what you describe above. The "why" in that question can be answered with "because we can" out of our economy.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 12:58 #697622
Quoting Christoffer
I generally fail at being consistently low-quality.


Classic. You don't disappoint. Tell me again how your posts are just sooo well formulated that anyone disagreeing with them simply must be trolling...

Quoting Christoffer
And harsh language, swears etc. are not ad hominems.


No accusing everyone who disagrees with you of being "mentally retarded" is. Your particular weapon of choice when it comes to the ad-hom is that your interlocutor's arguments need not be addressed because of either their lack of intellectual rigour, or their nefarious motive. Less flamboyant than @Olivier5's paranoid delusions about us all working for the FSB, but far more interesting. Counter-arguments need not be addressed as they're from the under-informed. How do we know they're under-informed? Their conclusions are faulty. How do we know their conclusions are faulty without countering them? There's no need to counter them, they're under-informed... Brilliant.

Quoting Christoffer
your first post in this thread is a sarcastic mock out of everyone seriously contemplating the risk of Russia invading Ukraine.


Not at all. It's mocking anyone suggesting that a war might 'just happen' and that the most powerful nation on the planet wouldn't have a position on that and be pulling strings as hard as it possibly can in a direction that suits it's agenda best.

Quoting Christoffer
The tone you set here is perhaps what sparks the quality to go down in a thread like this. I didn't start it, and neither did SSU or many others.


The tone of this thread has been that anyone talking about how America might share some blame is either uninformed, heartless, trolling, or actually working for the FSB. I really don't see how that could possibly be a coherent response to the perception of an overuse of sarcasm.

Quoting Christoffer
This is why I tried to call out to moderators to clean this shit up


No, what you called on the moderators to clean up was what you called poor arguments. But the moderators, having at the very least a post-adolescent grasp of epistemology recognised that the producers of said arguments would likely contest such a judgement and, lacking any means of disinterested arbitration, there the matter would rest in perpetuity.
magritte May 19, 2022 at 13:01 #697623
Reply to Streetlight Both or either. The US as a country cares about Ukraine as a country. People in either sense are at a different level of discourse and are a secondary consideration as needed to accomplish primary aims. We, as individuals are not the primary concern but are a fallout of greater circumstances.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 13:05 #697625
Reply to Isaac I don't think you work for the FSB, other than pro bono. I believe @boethius does. He's far better at it than you will ever be.
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 13:06 #697626
Quoting magritte
The US as a country cares about Ukraine as a country.


Lol.
magritte May 19, 2022 at 13:11 #697628
Quoting Christoffer
Yet, nations like mine (Sweden) contribute to donations with little to no actual return in any kind of neoliberal capitalist sense, whatever so-called experts on Swedish foreign affairs in here say. Sweden has for a very long time been one of the largest contributors of donations to poor nations or nations in need of help.


You are blessed to be living in Sweden. A country needs excess resources to be able to give charity to its needy. When our grand orange offered to buy Greenland, its inhabitants retorted that Danish welfare topped our offering.
neomac May 19, 2022 at 13:31 #697638
Quoting ssu
They already had them as Ukraine had been part of the Soviet Union


Yet, "Ukraine never had the ability to launch those missiles or to use those warheads. The security measures against unauthorized use were under Moscow’s control. The Ukrainians might have found ways around those security measures, or they might not have. Removing the warheads and physically taking them apart to repurpose them would be dangerous, and Ukraine did not have the facilities for doing that. Nor did Ukraine have the facilities to maintain those warheads Source: https://nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2022/02/06/could-ukraine-have-retained-soviet-nuclear-weapons/
ssu May 19, 2022 at 13:59 #697655
Quoting Streetlight
"Elected"


Well, a country that has basically collapsed, that has parts of it declared independent (Somaliland) and a major internal conflict, it's not surprising that there aren't general elections.

(BBC)The ballot was limited to Somalia's 328 MPs due to security concerns over holding a wider election, and one of them did not cast a vote.

Mr Mohamud received 214 votes, defeating Mr Farmajo who won 110 votes.

Three MPs are reported to have spoiled their ballots.

The unusual circumstances highlight Somalia's security issues as well as the lack of democratic accountability.


The real problem for Somalia will be the possibility of famine.

The alert from the World Food Programme (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) followed the latest food security assessments which showed that six million people in Somalia will face acute food insecurity in the coming months, unless the rains come.

That is almost double the number at the start of the year, said Lara Fossi, WFP Deputy Country Director in Somalia, who noted that Somalia last endured famine in 2011 and only narrowly avoided it in 2016-2017, thanks to prompt humanitarian intervention.


Add to this that the missing supplies from Ukraine and the global inflation will raise food prices, the victims of the war in Ukraine might be found also in Somalia and in the Sahel.

Quoting neomac
Yet, "Ukraine never had the ability to launch those missiles or to use those warheads.


Obviously they would have had to make a major program, but it wouldn't have been the situation of starting from nothing. The main obstacle wouldn't have been the technical aspects of the program.

The main obstacle would have been the West and the US. US had come to the conclusion that the best option was for Russia to solely have the Soviet Nuclear Arsenal, which obviously Russia totally agreed with. Let's not forget the environment of the Clinton-Yeltsin era: Russia wasn't a threat. The idea that Ukraine needed guarantees from Russian aggression wouldn't have flown. Russia had trouble fighting the Chechens inside Russia, so many simply wrote off Russia. Hence there would have been a coordinated effort against an Ukrainian nuclear program.

The disarmament of Ukraine actually didn't end with nuclear weapons. As the perception was that Soviet arms would end up in the wrong hands, the US persisted in Ukraine giving up large quantities of shoulder launched SAMs, which it now would have desperately needed. Shoulder launched missiles are too easy and effective.

Hence in 2005 NATO was doing things like this with Ukraine:

NATO Project to Destroy Excess Ukrainian Weapons Stocks
The United States is pleased to announce the launch of a NATO Partnership for Peace Trust Fund project to help Ukraine destroy stockpiles of excess munitions, small arms and light weapons, and Man-Portable Air Defense Systems. This represents the largest partnership trust fund project ever undertaken by NATO, and responds to Ukraine’s request for help in eliminating 1.5 million small arms and light weapons, and 133,000 tons of munitions. These stockpiles, some of which date from the Soviet era, are a threat to public safety and the environment and a potential proliferation risk. The four-phase project will span twelve years and cost approximately $27 million in donor contributions.

The United States will lead phase one of the NATO Trust Fund project, which will cost donors over $8.5 million. Ukraine will provide most of the operational and in-kind demilitarization costs. The project is due to start as soon as the spring of 2005. As the lead nation for phase one, the U.S. will make an initial contribution of $1,642,000.

The U.S. welcomes broader international support for the project, and will be working with potential donor countries and organizations, including outside the Partnership for Peace framework. We welcome early pledges of £400,000 from the United Kingdom and €240,000 from Norway.
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 14:01 #697656
Reply to ssu Didn't read any of that.
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 14:05 #697657
Quoting Isaac
How do we know they're under-informed? Their conclusions are faulty.


Just as I pointed to, your arrogant first argument where you mocked others through sarcastic rhetoric ended up being downright wrong the moment Russia invaded Ukraine. No one could hand you scientific peer-reviewed evidence of this going to happen, but we all knew it based on reading the signs of the information coming out, understanding how to sift through the bias of media, and understanding Russia's information war. You've jumped between taking Putin at his words and saying he's lying, whatever fits the argument you're making at the time. Without any context to when and how things are said. So every time someone makes an inductive argument based on the current information you demand proof in big letters, but not when you yourself argue something, then the information quality can shift however you like. The case point was the discussion about education and stuff where my final argument had highly detailed papers in favor of my argument and you dismissed it when we ended up at that point. You play with arguments, you fracture them into pieces and pick and choose to make things easier for you, it's a dishonest way of discussion that makes it impossible to have it honest and in a good tone. And then you strawman or change someone else's argument or conclusion to mock it as a way of taking some higher ground, when in fact it's so obvious I can't take you seriously. If you had any intention of meeting me at some place of actual philosophical discussion you would have done so, but your constant low way of discussing makes it impossible to have a real discussion with you. You've set that bar early on, don't blame others for the result.

Quoting Isaac
Not at all. It's mocking anyone suggesting that a war might 'just happen' and that the most powerful nation on the planet wouldn't have a position on that and be pulling strings as hard as it possibly can in a direction that suits it's agenda best.


That wasn't what you wrote, you mocked the idea that the US provided honest intel of a coming invasion because it didn't fit your anti-US narrative. When it turned out it was perfectly honest information and that helped battle the false flag strategies of Russia at the start of the invasion, you changed the narrative again.

Quoting Isaac
The tone of this thread has been that anyone talking about how America might share some blame is either uninformed, heartless, trolling, or actually working for the FSB.


It has not, it's you guys who come in here with that argument and argue with such arrogant bully mentality of everyone who has a more grey-ish perspective on these matters. All it takes is a look at what you all are writing, how you write arguments against those who disagree, and see how the tone shifted. Like how @ssu gets constantly bashed for being some "pro"- Nato-loving US puppet when he's owning everyone's ass with his extremely well-researched arguments. If only I had his calm temper to handle all of that, but I don't, I can't stand bullshit. The reason why FSB payroll arguments are made is because of the blatant Russian-apologetic nature of some arguments. When someone writes purely about a Ukraine-Russian dynamic in this conflict, someone whataboutist it into some anti-US argument. It's sickening how any kind of critique against Putin and Russia has been turned to focus entirely on the US or Nato as a culprit. That's why it becomes apologetic because it shifts the focus from the atrocities and crimes of Russia to just talking about the US's role in it.

And this is what happens when people who might spend years criticizing neoliberalism and the US, go into a discussion where Russia is in fact the culprit, however you try to turn it around. Because I can turn what you say around and position that when I argued for possible reasons for Putin's actions and talked about how he aims to expand Russia into the style of the old empire with its larger borders and how Nato would block such attempts just by being in an alliance with independent nations and not from a place of malice, you call me uninformed, puppet, US-loving indoctrinated stupid.

And this is what's actually my point. The "tone" started when you people began to have that attitude, arrogantly talking down on anyone who isn't anti-American and anti-Nato. Even when I've positioned plenty of times that I'm no fan of Nato, but see how it is necessary security for my own nation, the grey nature of such a thing is lost and in you people's eyes I become an indoctrinated puppet of the US for having that conclusion. It's downright stupid.

If you go back and look, I started out with attempts at good arguments, but the disagreement with the conclusions triggered some of you to start mocking my arguments. I and the ones close to my conclusions just ended up using the same rhetoric against you, if we began with you guys calling us Nato and US puppets, it ended up being you all acting as apologetic Russian trolls. You reap what you sow.
ssu May 19, 2022 at 14:08 #697658
Quoting Streetlight
Didn't read any of that.

Of course. Why would you participate in a discussion?

Tells everything about your contribution to this thread.

Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 14:09 #697659
Reply to ssu If I wanted badly written wikipedia summeries and two minute Google searches I would go to the source.
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 14:11 #697660
Quoting magritte
You are blessed to be living in Sweden. A country needs excess resources to be able to give charity to its needy. When our grand orange offered to buy Greenland, its inhabitants retorted that Danish welfare topped our offering.


We have excess resources because we understand how to handle the economy with care for the people. The irony of this is that we're still a free-market capitalist nation. Like, it seems possible to actually have socialism and capitalism in synthesis and the result is a high living standard, quality of life, and excess to help the poor with little to no demand of anything in return. Imagine if other nations started copying the same formula. This makes it strange to view news in Sweden because the bad things happening here get turned up to such extreme proportions that when compared to bad things in other nations it becomes a parody. Like, we have a real problem with gang violence and shootings right now in Sweden, but compare that to the US and it's like comparing to an outright war zone.
ssu May 19, 2022 at 14:15 #697661
Quoting Streetlight
If I wanted badly written wikipedia summeries and two minute Google searches I would go to the source.

The only source you seem to refer to is the Jacobin magazine.
Streetlight May 19, 2022 at 14:19 #697663
Reply to ssu See - you can't even get a simple, easily verifible fact like that right. Let alone paragraphs of it.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 14:26 #697668
Quoting Christoffer
I started out with attempts at good arguments


Just try, try really hard, to see that this is a subjective judgement of yours, not a fact about the world. If seeing that is too hard, then just imagine it is...

Now re-read your take on how things have panned out from the point of view of someone who disagrees with you about that subjective judgement. Someone who sees your arguments as carelessly lazy echoing of mainstream narrative, someone who sees your arguments as deliberate attempts to draw attention away from the one cause we can purposefully rebuke, towards the cause for whom rebuke is pointless virtue signalling.

Try to see your arguments from the perspective of someone seeing Ukraine slipping into an endless war, and becoming another horrific tally on America's million plus death toll for its foreign interventions.

Try to see your arguments from the perspective of someone for whom the faux hand-wringing over 4000 tragic deaths when 300,000 face starvation (and are afforded not so much as a passing sentence in the same press from which your position derives) is sickening.

Your moralizing may well seem genuine and heartfelt to you, its opposition seeming thus beastly by contrast, but there are those who genuinely believe your position does more harm than good, and by several fold. These are not trivial questions of philosophy. Thousands of actual people's lives are being destroyed by the forces and strategies we're debating the merits of.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 14:47 #697674
Quoting Streetlight
badly written wikipedia summeries


:sweat:
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 14:52 #697677
Not much in the habit of writing post that aren't responses to anything (doubting anyone will read them), but this shining example of narrative altering really fits on this thread despite not being a direct reply to anything.

From FAIR (Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting).

In 2018 the Atlantic Council wrote on the subject of the threat of the far right in Ukraine:

To be clear, far-right parties like Svoboda perform poorly in Ukraine’s polls and elections, and Ukrainians evince no desire to be ruled by them. But this argument is a bit of “red herring.” It’s not extremists’ electoral prospects that should concern Ukraine’s friends, but rather the state’s unwillingness or inability to confront violent groups and end their impunity.


By 2021 the same Atlantic Council in a piece entitled “The Dangers of Echoing Russian Disinformation on Ukraine,” give the argument as to why talk of far right problems in Ukraine was 'disinformation'...

In reality, Ukraine’s nationalist parties enjoy less support than similar political parties in a host of EU member states. Notably, in the two Ukrainian parliamentary elections held since the outbreak of hostilities with Russia in 2014, nationalist parties have failed miserably and fallen short of the 5% threshold to enter Ukrainian parliament.


The exact red herring they themselves alerted us to three years previous. Same data, different spin. When no American foreign policy is at stake, we're free to see lack of election support as a side issue to the rise in threatening violence. As soon as Nazism needs downplaying to ensure America's actions are whiter than white, those exact same election stats are wheeled out to perform the opposite function.
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 14:54 #697679
Quoting Isaac
Just try, try really hard, to see that this is a subjective judgement of yours, not a fact about the world. If seeing that is too hard, then just imagine it is...


You can look for yourself. My first arguments were in good faith of honest discussions, bringing up my perspective. And then look at your own first post. I'm not sure it's subjective to say that your post reeked of sarcastic mocking of others' arguments. So who started that behavior?

Quoting Isaac
Now re-read your take on how things have panned out from the point of view of someone who disagrees with you about that subjective judgement. Someone who sees your arguments as carelessly lazy echoing of mainstream narrative


Because mainstream is always bad? Mainstream can also be the voice of those actually working on researching the subject. It can also be different things in different nations. US "mainstream" is downright biased while mainstream in Sweden focuses much harder on facts from people who worked with analyzing all of this for many many years. The anti-mainstream argument is a blanket argument to use when the points to counter aren't easily countered. So the counterargument gets reduced to "mainstream bullshit". That's low quality.

I didn't echo anything like that, I looked at the information that exists and I have access to and made my argument based on somewhat of a consensus in the matter. You, however, especially with your radical nonsense conclusions about formal education and other stuff, just pull whatever cherry-picking necessary to fit your narrative. Then concludes other opinions to be "mainstream echo" and therefore meaningless.

Quoting Isaac
Try to see your arguments from the perspective of someone seeing Ukraine slipping into an endless war, and becoming another horrific tally on America's million plus death toll for its foreign interventions.


Yet, Ukraine seems to kind of win this war and they fought for themselves asking for material help. The problem with you people is that you totally ignore the Ukrainian's perspective, their wants, needs, ambitions, and will to exist. You criticize the US to play around with Ukrainian lives, while totally ignoring their opinions, independence, and needs. This is why your arguments come off as so blind and ignorant, because you blatantly ignore the Ukrainian perspective, just as you ignore the Swedish perspective of why we want to join Nato. You are so limited in your perspective that all you see is a chess game with US and Nato on one side and Russia on the other, ignoring anyone else on that field who has their own voice, opinions, and reasons to act.

Your argument becomes a shallow surface level hateful game of focusing all criticism on the US, whatever the cost of intellectual depth.

Quoting Isaac
Your moralizing may well seem genuine and heartfelt to you, its opposition seeming thus beastly by contrast, but there are those who genuinely believe your position does more harm than good, and by several fold.


Yet you ignore the Ukrainians and you argue that I argue for something that does more harm? Like, if it ends up as things seem to end up now, with the Ukrainians winning, pushing Russia out, and returning Ukraine to themselves to live as they see fit and not under the boot of a despot, all of this fighting was not in vain, was not a waste, but a defense for the right to exist as they want to exist, without being under the boot of Russia.

So who's actually arguing for more harm? The one who is open to the idea of Ukraine being under the boot of Russia just to end the war, or the one hoping for them to win back their freedom against Russia, even if it comes at the cost of lives? My vote is for fighting to survive, to live free from Russia and you are pretty alone if you feel otherwise.

Quoting Isaac
These are not trivial questions of philosophy. Thousands of actual people's lives are being destroyed by the forces and strategies we're debating the merits of.


And how would Ukraine be if no one helped Ukraine? If the US didn't help Ukraine with material and intel? Looking at the war crimes of Russia, the horror and hell that could have happened if they had to succumb to that outcome.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 15:45 #697710
Quoting Christoffer
My first arguments were in good faith of honest discussions


So 'no' to the trying then?

Quoting Christoffer
Because mainstream is always bad?


No, because reciting the mainstream is lazy, and careless when mainstream narratives work to immiserate people. Again, I'm just trying to get you to look at this from the other perspective. From the perspective of someone who disagrees with...

Quoting Christoffer
mainstream in Sweden focuses much harder on facts from people who worked with analyzing all of this for many many years.


...or disagrees with...

Quoting Christoffer
made my argument based on somewhat of a consensus in the matter.


These are, again, not just facts of the world, they are opinions of yours and other people disagree with them. That changes how they see your arguments. If you think your arguments are soundly based on unbiased consensus, then of course you're going to find opposition to them incoherent (or at least not understand the vitriol), but for those who disagree with that assessment, we might be offended your lack of effort, your lazy preference for the easiest narrative.

Your arguments have you and your country come out completely blameless and leave absolutely no obligation on you to do anything. They look just too convenient to someone unconvinced as to the unbiased authority of your sources.
ssu May 19, 2022 at 16:16 #697728
Reply to Streetlight As you have said you don't read what I write, there's no use to interact with you.

Reply to Olivier5 :grin: (Noticed it too.)
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 16:34 #697738
Quoting Isaac
I'm just trying to get you to look at this from the other perspective. From the perspective of someone who disagrees with...

mainstream in Sweden focuses much harder on facts from people who worked with analyzing all of this for many many years.
— Christoffer

...or disagrees with...

made my argument based on somewhat of a consensus in the matter.
— Christoffer


So you disagree with media in Sweden being much more factual and unbiased than in many other nations. Care to back up that disagreement with anything?

And you disagree with someone using the consensus of researchers in the matter as most of the sources to form their argument?

What exactly is it that you disagree with here? The process of argument or the arguments themselves? Because all I see is someone triggered by the fact that someone uses the consensus of researchers as a basis for an argument while claiming to have good knowledge of the level of bias for media you don't even have access to.

Am I interpreting this correctly? Because there are not many other ways to interpret what you said there.

Quoting Isaac
These are, again, not just facts of the world, they are opinions of yours and other people disagree with them.


If I use the consensus of researchers, both officially cited in Swedish media and my own personal sources from people I know who research these things, that makes my argument an uninformed opinion? What does that leave you? Who usually draws sources from heavily ideological bloggers and single individuals who share the same opinion as you? Why would your sources of information that form your conclusions be of any more factual value than mine? Because you said so? Please

Quoting Isaac
If you think your arguments are soundly based on unbiased consensus, then of course you're going to find opposition to them incoherent (or at least not understand the vitriol), but for those who disagree with that assessment, we might be offended your lack of effort, your lazy preference for the easiest narrative.


Yet, I only draw from the sources to form my arguments, I don't recite as you put it, even though I understand it's easier to counter me if you strawman it like that.

And disagreement without a foundation that can balance against such a consensus background is just disagreement noise. Your opinion is valued even lower if you only have a handful of ideological bloggers and individuals that you agree with in the first place.

The problem is that you just don't accept when I say I balance the information I have to find what seems most inductively probable. Because it doesn't fit your narrative and therefore you set out to discredit my arguments instead of actually arguing against them. Hence why you resort to sarcastic mocking rhetoric. You don't counter-argue, you resort to cherry-picking easily countered points pulled out of context, steering things towards a direction that's easier for you to control while dismissing context, the conclusions of points or the full narrative of the other speaker.

If your starting point is that you are being offended by something that's not even close to a hateful worldview and that it rather only doesn't fit with your personal and ideological worldview, you aren't an honest interlocutor if that offense turns into a sarcastic mockery. Then you're just an angry easily triggered person who just wants to shout at people who disagrees with you.

Quoting Isaac
Your arguments have you and your country come out completely blameless and leave absolutely no obligation on you to do anything. They look just too convenient to someone unconvinced as to the unbiased authority of your sources.


Yet you have nothing else but "it looks too convenient". All you have is your emotional response to everything here, you have no argumentative quality in your writing but blame others for having less. And you are the one talking about being hypocritical? You make no effort to evaluate the actual logic or rationale of the others' argument, you just compare it to your emotional opinion on the matter and if it doesn't fit, then the other person is a stupid, indoctrinated puppet. And when you get an argument with lots of actual sources you bail out, as you did with the "education" discussion.

You're not an honest interlocutor, you are an emotionally driven, easily triggered person who needs to mock others when you don't agree with them. I have no interest in discussing anything with you because of that, but you persist to spam your unfounded emotional responses to everything said by anyone that has another conclusion than you.

Hence why...

Quoting Isaac
Not much in the habit of writing post that aren't responses to anything


Because that's all that you do, react, mock and fight anything that isn't fitting within your narrative. While you blame others for not respecting your views :shade:
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 16:40 #697745
Reply to ssu Summer has set in here in Roma, Italia. While I sip from my Peroni at a bar terrace, I lazily read through your excellent wikipedia summeries... Thank you (and Street) for that little moment of bliss.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 18:10 #697795
Quoting Christoffer
So you disagree with media in Sweden being much more factual and unbiased than in many other nations.


Yes, as a statement of fact, I do.

Quoting Christoffer
Care to back up that disagreement with anything?


I have absolutely no reason to believe you. It just sounds like "Oh and my sources are the best, if you don't agree, you disprove it". I don't agree (by default) because it's a very convenient position for your argument.

Quoting Christoffer
And you disagree with someone using the consensus of researchers in the matter as most of the sources to form their argument?


No. I disagree with your claim that you have done so. Plus I disagree with the claim that a consensus of experts is more likely to be right that a single, or small group of experts. Qualification and error checking are the factors which make an expert opinion more likely to be right. There's absolutely nothing about a consensus to say they have greater qualification (in fact they will on average have less), nor that they have carried out more robust or lengthy error checking (again, I think marginally they will have done less than some). The expert most likely to right is the one who has the greatest knowledge and has carried out the most thorough error checking. That, by definition, will not be the mass around the mean, but rather one of the extremes.

Quoting Christoffer
Why would your sources of information that form your conclusions be of any more factual value than mine?


My conclusions are not more factual than yours. I don't know how many times I can say this in different ways that you might understand. I choose evidence which supports my preferred narrative. The narrative comes first, the evidence second. The difference between me and you here is that you're still labouring under the delusion that you don't. That you somehow start every investigation with a blank slate, unbiasedly selecting your sources, interpreting their conclusions according to some disinterested algorithm, and then just happening, by chance to come up with answers which exactly support your pre-existing political ideals. It's bullshit. You, like every other human in the planet, interpret a complex soup of almost infinite data in ways which confirm your pre-existing biases until such time as those narratives become completely unsustainable in the face of evidence to the contrary. You're hard-wired to do this, it's literally how your brain works, from perception, through emotion, right up to grand world-philosophies.

Quoting Christoffer
Your opinion is valued even lower if you only have a handful of ideological bloggers and individuals that you agree with in the first place.


Again, this is just your opinion. One with which others disagree. The people I've cited are all experts in their field. That you personally find them to be 'ideological' is your conclusion. As to your sources, you pretty much refused to cite any, so we can't tell.

Quoting Christoffer
You don't counter-argue, you resort to cherry-picking easily countered points pulled out of context,


Again, whether the points I counter are 'cherry-picked' and 'out of context' are both subjective judgements, I would obviously disagree with that assessment.

Quoting Christoffer
You make no effort to evaluate the actual logic or rationale of the others' argument, you just compare it to your emotional opinion on the matter and if it doesn't fit, then the other person is a stupid, indoctrinated puppet.


Once more, the idea of having countered 'logic' is a subjective opinion, one with which I would disagree. A recurring problem here is that you cannot seem to understand things which seem 'logical' to you are not that way to others. It's not as if you're arguing that 2+2=4, these are complex issues.

Quoting Christoffer
And when you get an argument with lots of actual sources you bail out, as you did with the "education" discussion.


I'm simply not going to engage in a full blooded discussion about education in a thread about Ukraine. The point of it was to see how far you'd take an argument. I was intrigued as to why you didn't just assume I was lying about being a psychology professor (seemingly the easiest option for your argument) but instead assumed that you (presumably unqualified in the field) could 'outargue' someone holding a professorship by looking up a few things on Google. That position simply peaked my interest so I wanted to see how far it went. If you want to start a thread about education I'd be more than happy to contribute, though I'd expect a bit more than a hastily thrown together collection of papers. My views on the matter are not mainstream though.

Quoting Christoffer
you persist to spam your unfounded emotional responses to everything said by anyone that has another conclusion than you.


Yep. This is a public forum, not your private blog.

Quoting Christoffer
that's all that you do, react, mock and fight anything that isn't fitting within your narrative.


Yes, that's a fair summary (the vast majority of the time). If I want to learn, I'll read a book. If I want to discuss with experts, I'll track some down (though I grant my personal situation makes this much easier for me than others, I'm not criticising other people in this). I have a very specific interest in this place - seeing how people react to having their views challenged, particularly on views I have strong opinions about (it reveals interesting things about my own psyche too, not that I'm going to share any of them publicly). Unless such a form of interaction is against the rules, I'll carry on.
jorndoe May 19, 2022 at 18:19 #697799
Quoting Wayfarer
The next master stroke of Putin is to revive the Russian car manufacturing industry and the much-ridiculed Moskvich sedan. Lessons in how to re-animated a corpse.


The "good old days" :grin:

Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 19:45 #697844
Quoting Christoffer
... media in Sweden being much more factual and unbiased than in many other nations.


It may well be the case. I encourage you to post English versions of interesting Swedish articles here, if you care. I kind of agree with the peace lovers that the English press does follow a rather narrow script on Ukraine. I do post stuff from the French press here, that I believe deviate from what the typical English language media would or could report. I'm sure it's taken by some as further example (if need be) of my French air of haughtiness. But in truth I post this stuff because I naively think it can be useful.

Something like this, for instance.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 19:57 #697851
Quoting Olivier5
I post this stuff because I naively think it can be useful.


Weird. Useful to whom? Do you think we're not aware that foreign newspapers exist? I realise I might be the one in the minority here, but I just don't understand this at all. If I want to know what the foreign press is saying I can look up foreign press articles, I've got access to the internet. Google do an excellent translation service... So you're doing what? The choosing for us? Why would anyone want someone else to do that for them?
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 19:59 #697854
Quoting Isaac
So you're doing what? The choosing for us? Why would anyone want someone else to do that for them?


Because I read the French press, and they don't.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 20:11 #697860
Quoting Olivier5
Because I read the French press, and they don't.


https://duckduckgo.com/?q=French+press+about+Ukraine&t=fpas&ia=web

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=french+newspapers+on+Ukraine&t=fpas&ia=web
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 20:12 #697861
Quoting Isaac
Yes, as a statement of fact, I do.


It's not a fact just because you say so. :shade:

Quoting Isaac
I have absolutely no reason to believe you. It just sounds like "Oh and my sources are the best, if you don't agree, you disprove it". I don't agree (by default) because it's a very convenient position for your argument.


One way to get a hint of the situation: https://rsf.org/en/index?year=2022, but of course I'm mostly referring to the expert guests within these media channels who provide most of the information able to be used to assess any kind of probable overview of the current events.

Which is more than you can provide. And of course, you used your "professor" claim at every point it works best for you, and then not when it doesn't, as well as what I can remember biased bloggers or writers close to your own ideological heart but rarely valid for any kind of unbiased method.

Quoting Isaac
I disagree with the claim that a consensus of experts i more likely to be right that an single, or small group of experts. Qualification and error checking are the factor which make an expert opinion more likely to be right.


For a professor that's quite bad English there, had to fill in the gaps and English isn't even my first language. But then you don't make much sense either, like, you don't seem to understand the idea behind consensus, in scientific terms. If you have a set of experts, then the more experts that conclude the same, the better the consensus is because all that error checking and reviewing goes through a larger set of data. So, they all work through an analysis of the information they have access to in order to reach a conclusion with high probability, which can vary based on the information. So the more experts there are, the higher the probability of reaching a truthful conclusion.

The claim you make that a single expert can be more right than a group is only a way for you to justify that your experts are the right ones. That's as epistemically irresponsible as you can get really. A single expert can reach a new perspective and present it, but it's not a fact or close to the truth before that perspective has been tested and checked by others.

Quoting Isaac
There's absolutely nothing about a consensus to say they have greater qualification (in fact they will on average have less),


And there's absolutely nothing to say the opposite or that your expert source is better, just that a consensus of many experts has a higher probability to be better as a collective, than a single expert. This is why methods to reduce bias require more people than just one expert.

Quoting Isaac
(again, I think marginally they will have done less than some)


More conjecture in order to create the impression that your single sources are better than others.

Quoting Isaac
The expert most likely to right is the one who has the greatest knowledge and has carried out the most thorough error checking. That, by definition, will not be the mass around the mean, but rather one of the extremes.


And again, this does not invalidate my sources or make your sources more valid or truthful. The biggest problem was when I bias-checked your sources and found them far more politically biased than what would be considered valid for any good argument to be made from them.

Quoting Isaac
My conclusions are not more factual than yours. I don't know how many times I can say this in different ways that you might understand.


You cannot know that. Just because you have an opinion based on nothing more than your emotional reaction to what others write, does not equal me not using the information I have in front of me much more when making an argument. You seem to think that because you don't agree with someone else through pure opinion and emotion, then they are on the same playing field as you, which I know I'm not. The discussion about education was a clear example of our differences and should have made a point of that, but obviously, it didn't for you.

Quoting Isaac
I choose evidence which supports my preferred narrative. The narrative comes first, the evidence second.


Yeah, this is why you are generally full of shit. This is wrong and backwards on so many accounts that it proves just why you're pretty irrelevant as a voice in this discussion. Here's a little lesson in how to handle this with epistemic responsibility; you have a claim, hypothesis, or opinion, then you check all the facts to not only verify but also falsify in order to reach an answer as to if it's a probable conclusion or not. Since we're unable to do pure deduction with the available information, it's induction, probability. Only when different conclusions have been made can you create a possible narrative. If you think I'm not making efforts to do any of this, then you are wrong. But the way you tackle things is plain wrong and makes it impossible to have a proper discussion since you make most shit up and cherry-pick whatever fits your narrative, just as I suspected.

Quoting Isaac
The difference between me and you here is that you're still labouring under the delusion that you don't.


I'm not. But I guess it's impossible for you to grasp that when you've entangled yourself into such a backwards method of finding out what's probable.

Quoting Isaac
That you somehow start every investigation with a blank slate, unbiasedly selecting your sources, interpreting their conclusions according to some disinterested algorithm, and then just happening, by chance to come up with answers which exactly support your pre-existing political ideals.


What the fuck are you ranting on about here? And what political ideals are you referring to?

Quoting Isaac
You, like every other human in the planet, interpret a complex soup of almost infinite data in ways which confirm your pre-existing biases until such time as those narrative become completely unsustainable in the face of evidence to the contrary. You're hard-wired to do this, it's literally how your brain works, from perception, through emotion, right up to grand world-philosophies.


This is why there are methods to make sure biases and emotions get suppressed while formulating rational conclusions. Methods you clearly just shown to do backwards and wrong. Just because you don't understand this or think it's impossible or believe that because you can't do it then everyone else can't, doesn't mean that everyone works things out as you do.

Quoting Isaac
Again, this is just your opinion.


No, it's not opinion to point out how method trumps appeal to authority.

Quoting Isaac
The people I've cited are all experts in their field. That you personally find them to be 'ideological' is your conclusion.


Not when I bias checked the sites you referred to.

Quoting Isaac
Again, whether the points I counter are 'cherry-picked' and 'out of context' are both subjective judgements, I would obviously disagree with that assessment.


You already proved you do exactly what I said so case closed.

Quoting Isaac
A recurring problem here is that you cannot seem to understand you things which seem 'logical' to you are not that way to others. It's not as if you're arguing that 2+2=4, these are complex issues.


What's logical is that I look at information, facts, and many experts and form a basis of knowledge before formulating any kind of conclusion. While you decide on a truth you like and pick what fits it. This is what you've said yourself to do and if we compare who's following most logic here, I'd say you proved to be on the lower end. It doesn't have to be a math equation to be a logical method of finding out probable answers to complex issues. If you think complex philosophical topics cannot use logical methods to help bypass emotional opinions, then you're really not knowledgeable in this epistemical topic.

Quoting Isaac
I'm simply not going to engage in a full blooded discussion about education in a thread about Ukraine.


No, you stopped when the argument became too solid. That's what happened, you had no problem discussing it for many pages and long posts before you dropped it when I provided enough actual papers to support it. Cherry-picking to fit your narrative won't cut it by that time.

Quoting Isaac
The point of it was to see how far you'd take an argument.


Yeah, sure :lol:

Quoting Isaac
I was intrigued as to why you didn't just assume I was lying about being a psychology professor (seemingly the easiest option for your argument) but instead assumed that you (presumably unqualified in the field) could 'outargue' someone holding a professorship by looking up a few things on Google. That position simply peaked my interest so I wanted to see how far it went. If you want to start a thread about education I'd be more than happy to contribute, though I'd expect a bit more than a hastily thrown together collection of papers. My views on the matter are not mainstream though.


:lol:

The attempts you make to slither yourself out of failing to counter that and change things into some personal study you make in order to sound like you're above it all would be considered arrogant if it wasn't so fucking hilarious. But at least it proves just how you act and work, combined with what you've said now about how you actually just pick what fits your narrative best shows just how lost in the woods you are.

Quoting Isaac
Yep. This is a public forum, not your private blog.


It's a public forum focused on higher-level discussion. If you want something more casual, then go to any social media platform of your choosing. And wouldn't spamming answers to everyone, cherry-picking stuff and providing your wild emotional opinions be closer to the idea of a private blog than being on a public forum? No one is trying to censor you, I was just asking you to stop spamming answers to me, but I guess that your idea of a public forum doesn't require people to act civilly and respect such requests. For you, a public forum is more of the wild west, just like, you know... trolls think public forums are.

Quoting Isaac
Yes, that's a fair summary (the vast majority of the time). If I want to learn, I'll read a book. If I want to discuss with experts, I'll track some down (though I grant my personal situation makes this much easier for me than others, I'm not criticising other people in this).


And again you believe you are the only one who is able to track down experts :rofl:

Quoting Isaac
I have a very specific interest in this place - seeing how people react to having their views challenged, particularly on view I have strong opinions about (it reveals interesting things about my own psyche too, not that I'm going to share any of them publicly). Unless such a form of interaction is against the rules, I'll carry on.


I'd say it makes you a dishonest interlocutor with a motive that no one has any interest in being part of. You can do whatever you want, but you're just proving yourself to be dishonest in the discussion and you have now also proven to not care for reviewing your own opinions and just cherry-pick whatever works best for you when answering others. If this isn't proof enough that you are irrelevant in this discussion I don't know what. Dishonest, sloppy and lazy in creating arguments and basically just interested in anything else but the topic of this very thread. Based on this, your lack of respect towards others here is remarkable.

Why should I give you more of my time then? You're not writing here with honesty, you're just jerking off.












Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 20:22 #697866
Reply to Isaac Sure, but they wont attract one's attention to interesting content.

I mean, you never post from an English language news site? What's the essential difference?
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 20:25 #697868
Quoting Olivier5
they wont attract one's attention to interesting content.


So the role you play is determining what's interesting?

Quoting Olivier5
I mean, you never post from an English language news site? What's the essential difference?


Not without comment, no. Posts should have a point, I think.
Benkei May 19, 2022 at 20:49 #697882
Quoting Christoffer
the better the consensus is because all that error checking and reviewing goes through a larger set of data. So, they all work through an analysis of the information they have access to in order to reach a conclusion with high probability, which can vary based on the information. So the more experts there are, the higher the probability of reaching a truthful conclusion.


Surprisingly that's false. Check out this
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 20:52 #697884
Quoting Isaac
So the role you play is determining what's interesting?


More precisely, what,s interesting and unlikely to have been reported in mainstream English language sources. Who as you know are quite narrow-mindedly... well.. shall we call it "cheerleading Ukraine"?

I can add comments...
Christoffer May 19, 2022 at 21:07 #697897
Reply to Benkei

I've seen that video before, and yes, it is like this, but if you go to 11:20 in that video you get my answer and why I'm always pointing out why there's still no point in saying we shouldn't aim for it. The only way to get things as right as possible is to follow it. As I've argued in other threads, it is possible to train yourself to emulate the rigorous process used in science, in everyday thinking, it just requires training. It is not equal to always being right, but it is far better than relying on our biological biases when trying to make any kind of argument and it is a vital tool for being a more balanced person that can evaluate perspectives better than one who doesn't follow it.

As for what I wrote, what I mean is that if all experts follow their work and ethical praxis, the outcome is far better if the statistical number of experts is higher. Generally the higher number of people looking at an object, the more likely it exists as they describe it. Basically.

...as well as the video coming out in 2016, when at 10:12 he states that "the last 10 years things have started to change for the better", and now we're 6 years after this video was published, so it's important information, but also a thing the scientific world has been working to fix for 16 years now, 6 years after Derek said "it's changing for the better".
jorndoe May 19, 2022 at 21:33 #697920
Quoting Olivier5
Something like this, for instance.


You have 49.25% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.


I gather they're saying that Ukraine sort of happens to have been caught between

democracies versus autocracies (e.g. Biden)
"old world order" versus "new world order" (e.g. Jinping)

Not sure what such a new world would be (except Uyghur culture probably won't be invited).

Isaac May 19, 2022 at 21:34 #697923
Quoting Olivier5
I can add comments...


Comments would be an improvement, in my opinion. I might disagree with you most of the time, but at least I can ask you why you think what you think. Can't ask the journalist who wrote the article.
Isaac May 19, 2022 at 21:48 #697927
Reply to Benkei

Yeah, and that's actual papers with method statements and statistical analysis.

Once you get into the field of 'expert opinion', you're pretty much just getting a run down of the current paradigms from any consensus.

Not to mention the fact that when people say 'consensus' they generally mean a biased sample of experts whose views have been collated or otherwise published in the sources available to whomever is making that claim. We're rarely talking about some statistically valid sampling procedure.

And, add to all that the fact the experts in most fields simply do not spend their time frantically checking each other's papers. Maybe psychology is some rare oddity, but it just doesn't happen. Over the course of a decade, maybe a bit less you might just get sufficient turnaround for the earlier papers to have been checked by a small handful of their colleagues, the rest will certainly have an opinion on everyone's papers (got that in spades), but not checked with any rigour-adding methodology.

As for...

Quoting Christoffer
"the last 10 years things have started to change for the better"


The main improvements have been in pre-print servers and set pre-print methodologies. It's about the avoidance of specific forms of statistical manipulation and low powered experiment design. It wouldn't apply to vox pop experts at all.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 21:50 #697928
Reply to jorndoe It's about a post-UN world, where there's nothing left of the old allies' dreams of collective security.

The end of human rights as "normative" (as the UN would have it) for instance. Human rights are now just some "Western" concept, waged by the West when it suits them, which is true. Any international norm, any international organisation like WHO requiring any modicum of transparency in information sharing between states, would ultimately go down the drain.

Because Western.

Spheres of influence are the new thing, in a multipolar world.

Dystopian.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 21:53 #697929
Reply to Isaac As I said, it's not different from posting anything else. You can ask me questions about what the journalist meant.
Olivier5 May 19, 2022 at 21:58 #697933
Joe Jackson - 40 Years



(contribution to the thread's soundtrack)
Olivier5 May 20, 2022 at 07:00 #698182
Comment: another aspect of the war is evidently economical, with far reaching consequences. (not sure that this comment was particularly illuminating but I'm told that the people want comments)


Ukraine war has stoked global food crisis that could last years, says UN
Shortages of grain and fertiliser could cause ‘mass hunger and famine, says chief, as World Bank pledges $12bn to ease shortfall

The United Nations has warned that the war in Ukraine has helped to stoke a global food crisis that could last years if it goes unchecked, as the World Bank announced an additional $12bn in funding to mitigate its “devastating effects”.

UN secretary general António Guterres said shortages of grain and fertiliser caused by the war, warming temperatures and pandemic-driven supply problems threaten to “tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity”, as financial markets saw share prices fall heavily again on fears of inflation and a worldwide recession.

Speaking at a UN meeting in New York on global food security, he said what could follow would be “malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a crisis that could last for years”, as he and others urged Russia to release Ukrainian grain exports.

He said he was in “intense contact” with Russia and other countries to try to find a solution.
ssu May 20, 2022 at 07:55 #698199
Reply to Olivier5 This is something that unfortunately seems to happen. The upturn in global inflation (thanks the enormous money printing efforts during Covid and before) isn't going to make this any more easier. Or climate change.

I think the worst affected areas will be the Sahel. But the hit Ukraine's economy is taking is extremely severe, but naturally that isn't on the minds of Ukrainians as they are bombed daily by Russia and fighting a conventional war. When the enemy is bombing your cities, people aren't upset about the economy tanking.
Olivier5 May 20, 2022 at 08:12 #698202
Quoting ssu
I think the worst affected areas will be the Sahel.


This a food price crisis, and I would think that as such, it will hit poor countries that are net importers of staple food. There's a long list of those, all the more so because a long period of globalisation and low food prices on the global markets -- a period that appears to be ending now -- has led many countries to neglect their domestic food production in favor of their 'comparative advantage' on world markets. It worked for them as long as globalisation was reasonably 'functional', but now with Covid and this war, it doesn't work anymore.

For instance Egypt has a strong comparative advantage on the world tourism market, and that's what they developed, and they kept imoprting more and more wheat. Now there're few tourists going there, so...?
ssu May 20, 2022 at 08:26 #698203
Reply to Olivier5 Egypt had already earlier food riots when the high oil price affected food prices some years ago.

Troubles in the economy will in some places become political troubles. It's hard to know just where.
Olivier5 May 20, 2022 at 08:35 #698204
Quoting ssu
It's hard to know just where.


My prognosis is: North Africa, Egypt, the Indian subcontinent, a number of African countries strongly relying on world markets, and poor island states. (for the worse effects)
Wayfarer May 20, 2022 at 09:47 #698228
Reply to Olivier5 Probably, Putin would regard these kinds of consequences as leverage. The fact that he can cause world starvation will be, to him, only a sign of how powerful he is. He will have absolutely zero concern from a humanitarian perspective.
Olivier5 May 20, 2022 at 10:13 #698235
Reply to Wayfarer "Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. It plans to export more of the grain in the new (July) marketing season due to a large harvest and stockpile, reported Reuters, citing IKAR consultancy on Wednesday, raising its estimate for the wheat crop.

Russia, which competes mainly with the European Union and Ukraine for wheat supplies to the Middle East and Africa, has been limiting its grain exports with taxes and an export quota since 2021 amid efforts to slow domestic food inflation."

So Russia will profit from high food prices.
RogueAI May 20, 2022 at 18:42 #698390
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZVXYaQz1lw
(Russian Invasion of Ukraine - 80 day update - Cold War Special)
Apollodorus May 20, 2022 at 21:05 #698437
Quoting neomac
Finally, and most importantly, it's not matter of how pure their blood is, but who are the indigenous inhabitants of Crimea. Not the Russians! But the Crimean Tatars. So they should be the right owners according to your views!


If you really want to know who the original inhabitants of Crimea were, then you should try to find out instead on fixating on Tatars just because it serves your political agenda.

Unfortunately, if you don’t even understand what Mongols are, how are you going to understand what Turkic people and Tatars are?

For your information, Tatars and other Turkic peoples originally came from the same area as the Mongols and are genetically closely related to them. Otherwise said, they're genetically closer to Mongols than to local populations like the Slavs. This can be seen from their facial features like eyes, etc. as noted by Arab and other visitors to the region in the Middle Ages:

Medieval Muslim writers noted that Tibetans and Turks resembled each other, and that they often were not able to tell the difference between Turks and Tibetans. On Western Turkic coins "the faces of the governor and governess are clearly mongoloid (a roundish face, narrow eyes), and the portraits have definite old Türk features. Turkic peoples - Wikipedia


For those who are unfamiliar with the subject, the easiest thing to do is to think (a) of Mongolia as situated to the north of China and having a population related to the Chinese, and (b) of Turkic people (including Tatars) as originally coming from western Mongolia and Mongols proper from eastern Mongolia:

Turkic-speaking peoples sampled across the Middle East, Caucasus, East Europe, and Central Asia share varying proportions of Asian ancestry that originate in a single area, southern Siberia and Mongolia. Mongolic- and Turkic-speaking populations from this area bear an unusually high number of long chromosomal tracts that are identical by descent with Turkic peoples from across west Eurasia. Admixture induced linkage disequilibrium decay across chromosomes in these populations indicates that admixture occurred during the 9th–17th centuries, in agreement with the historically recorded Turkic nomadic migrations and later Mongol expansion. Thus, our findings reveal genetic traces of recent large-scale nomadic migrations and map their source to a previously hypothesized area of Mongolia and southern Siberia.


The Genetic Legacy of the Expansion of Turkic-Speaking Nomads across Eurasia – National Institutes of Health

Genetic evidence points to an origin in the region near South Siberia and Mongolia as the "Inner Asian Homeland" of the Turkic ethnicity
The Tatars (/?t??t?rz/; Tatar: ????????, tatarlar, ???????, Crimean Tatar: tatarlar; Old Turkic: , romanized: Tatar) is an umbrella term for different Turkic ethnic groups bearing the name "Tatar".
Tatar became a name for populations of the former Golden Horde in Europe, such as those of the former Kazan, Crimean, Astrakhan, Qasim and Siberian Khanates.
All Turkic peoples living within the Russian Empire were named Tatar (as a Russian exonym). Some of these populations still use Tatar as a self-designation:

Kipchak groups
Kipchak–Cuman branch
Crimean Tatars …. - Wikipedia


1.

A. Turkic people come from the same area as, and are related to, Mongols.
B. Tatars are Turkic people.
C. Therefore Tatars come from the same area as, and are related to, Turks and Mongols.

The Turkish government calls Crimean Tatars “Crimean Turks” and “kinsmen”:

'Turkey to continue to stand by Crimean Tatars' – Anadolu Agency

When Russia retook Crimea in 1783, most of the “Crimean” Tatars emigrated to Turkey, which shows that they felt more at home among their Turkish kinsmen than in Russia!

2. “Tatars” or “Tatary” (??????) in Russian, was a generic term applied to both Mongols and Turkic peoples associated with the Mongols, and it was first applied to Genghis Khan’s hordes which were composed of Mongols and Turkic tribes.

3. Irrespective of genetic affinity, the Tatars were closely associated with the invading Mongols and Turks.

4. It wasn’t “just the Mongols” but the Tatars themselves, including Crimean Tatars that attacked and enslaved Slavic populations like Ukrainians and Russians:

The Crimeans frequently mounted raids into the Danubian principalities, Poland–Lithuania, and Muscovy to enslave people whom they could capture; for each captive, the khan received a fixed share (sav?a) of 10% or 20%. These campaigns by Crimean forces were either sefers ("sojourns"), officially declared military operations led by the khans themselves, or çapuls ("despoiling"), raids undertaken by groups of noblemen, sometimes illegally because they contravened treaties concluded by the khans with neighbouring rulers.
For a long time, until the early 18th century, the [Crimean] khanate maintained a massive slave trade with the Ottoman Empire and the Middle East, exporting about 2 million slaves from Russia and Poland–Lithuania over the period 1500–1700. In 1769, a last major Tatar raid resulted in the capture of 20,000 Russian and Ruthenian slaves. – Wikipedia


Ukrainians and Russians kept fighting the Tatars for several centuries, as anyone who has read Russian authors well knows.

When the old, peaceable Slav spirit was fired with warlike flame, the Cossack state was instituted. In place of the original provinces with their petty towns, in place of the warring and bartering petty princes ruling in their cities, there arose great colonies, villages, and districts, bound together by one common danger and hatred against the heathen robbers. The story is well known how their incessant warfare and restless existence saved Europe from the merciless hordes which threatened to overwhelm her … – Gogol, Taras Bulba


Gogol was not only a great writer, but he wrote at a time when memories of Tatar raids were still fresh in the national consciousness, and he was from the Cossack region of Ukraine that had been at the very center of the Slavs’ struggle against the Tatars. Indeed, like many Cossacks, he may have been part-Tatar himself.

In sum, any objective analysis must start from the fact that the prehistoric inhabitants of the region were Eastern European hunter-gatherers (EHG). Indeed, the region is regarded by scholars as the Urheimat or original homeland of Indo-European people. By definition, this makes people like the Tatars outsiders.

Eastern Hunter-Gatherer – Wikipedia

Map of Indo-European Expansion – History Files

In historical times, Crimea was inhabited by Indo-European (Caucasoid) peoples: indigenous Tauri, followed by Greeks, Scythians, Goths, Alans. These were invaded by successive waves of nomadic Turkic tribes from the east (Central Asia): Huns, Bulgars, Cumans, Khazars, Mongols.

The Greeks were the first to introduce civilization and to build cities in Crimea from the 5th century BC, and southern Crimea remained Greek until it was conquered by Turkey in 1475, i.e., it was GREEK for a thousand years!

By taking Crimea from the Tatars and Turks in 1783, Russia reintegrated Crimea into Europe, put an end to the Tatar depredations, and redressed a historic injustice. And justice, after all, is what this is about.

Moreover, in recognition of Crimea’s Greek heritage, Russia gave Crimea’s main port the Greek name of Sevastopol, and there was a wider effort to re-Hellenize the region after its liberation from Turkish-Tatar occupation in order to keep the Turks out of Europe (see Catherine the Great’s Greek Plan ).

Unfortunately, treacherous France and England ganged up with Turkey against Russia in the Crimean War (1853 – 1856) and that’s where the problems with the West started.

If we say that “Crimea belongs to the Tatars” and the Tatars are considered to be Turks, we can see how this can be an invitation for Turkey to try and bring Crimea under its control and we’re playing into the hands of Erdogan who aims to rebuild the Ottoman Empire.

Indeed, Turkey’s (a NATO state) current manoeuvres in Crimea and other parts of Ukraine and the wider region have provided Russia with an additional and, arguably legitimate, reason to intervene.

IMO if NATO gives its member state Turkey free hand to intervene in Syria and Iraq on the grounds that Turkey has “legitimate security concerns in the region”, then Russia should also be allowed to intervene in Ukraine.

In any case, there is no evidence that Crimea belongs to Ukraine and even less that it belongs to America!

Problem with CIA-NATO-Nazi bots is that they may have the technology but they haven’t got the intelligence! :grin:

BTW, if anyone is genuinely interested in the subject, here are some good articles on Turkey’s agenda in Crimea and Ukraine:

Turkey’s Tatar Agenda Explained - Insideover

Erdogan’s wolf trace: Crimean Tatars will turn into Ukrainian Turkomans — Eurasia Daily

Quoting Christoffer
No, I'm just calling out your bullshit thinking you know even surface-level stuff of what is going on in Sweden and Finland.


Well, I don't think you've demonstrated superior knowledge of countries other than Finland and Sweden. Kettle calling the pot black, comes to mind ....

Quoting ssu
Russia didn't intervene or come to the help of Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked in the Nagorno-Karabach. It actually had sold weapons to Azerbaijan. And is all but happy using the divide and rule tactics in the Caucasus.


The Armenian-Azeri conflict has absolutely nothing to do with Russia’s “divide-and-rule tactics”.

For your information, the territory inhabited by European (Caucasoid) populations originally stretched all the way to western China and southern Siberia. See Afanasievo Culture.

The problem was created when nomadic Mongol and Turkic tribes began to invade European territories. See Turkic Migrations. This includes Azeris, a Turkic group, that invaded Armenian territory in the Middle Ages.

The Azerbaijanis, Azerbaijani Turks, or Azeris are Turkic people living mainly in the Republic of Azerbaijan and Iranian Azerbaijan, as well as in Georgia, Russia (Dagestan), Turkey and formerly Armenia.
A massive migration of Oghuz Turks in the 11th and 12th centuries gradually Turkified Azerbaijan as well as Anatolia.
At the beginning of the 11th century, the territory was gradually seized by the waves of Oghuz Turks from Central Asia, who adopted a Turkoman ethnonym at the time. The first of these Turkic dynasties established was the Seljuk Empire, which entered the area now known as Azerbaijan by 1067.
The pre-Turkic population that lived on the territory of modern Azerbaijan spoke several Indo-European and Caucasian languages, among them Armenian and an Iranian language, Old Azeri, which was gradually replaced by a Turkic language, the early precursor of the Azerbaijani language of today. – Azerbaijani people, Azerbaijan, Wikipedia.


Russia did NOT create the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The conflict goes back many centuries and needs to be taken in the context of Mongol and Turkic encroachment on European territory.

If anything, Russia is trying to strike a balance between two existing mutual enemies on its borders. Russia did sell some weapons to Azerbaijan but it was Turkey that armed the Azeris and encouraged them to attack Armenia by offering military and diplomatic support.

Turkish arms exports to Azerbaijan exploded before Nagorno-Karabakh clashes - Turkish Minute

Don’t forget that Turkey regards itself and Azerbaijan as “two states, one nation” as part of its imperialist designs on the region!

Experts see Turkey’s hardline rhetoric against Armenia as part of Turkey’s aspirations for global and regional leadership and Ankara's increasing efforts to resolve disputes through “gunboat diplomacy.”


AP Explains: What lies behind Turkish support for Azerbaijan – ABC News

ssu May 21, 2022 at 05:58 #698591
Quoting Apollodorus
The Armenian-Azeri conflict has absolutely nothing to do with Russia’s “divide-and-rule tactics”.

Except that Stalin made the region with a majority Armenian population to an autonomous oblast of Azerbaijan in 1923.

Furthermore, in the last war it was totally clear that Russia didn't support Armenia as one would think a treaty member should be supported. Of course you might argue that Nagorno-Karabakh isn't Armenia...

Yet one obvious reason is that Russia didn't like the administration of prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, that had come into power after street protests (read, color revolution) in 2018.

As Aljazeera put it:
Another explanation of Russia’s indecisiveness is the peaceful 2018 uprising that toppled pro-Russian and allegedly corrupt President Sargsyan and installed former publicist Pashinyan at the helm. He tried to diversify Armenia’s political alliances and sought closer ties with the West.

That attempt was a no-no.

One commentator put's it this way (when the last war was fought):

Moscow’s current calculation seems to be that it can have its geopolitical cake and eat it. By holding off, Russia seems to be offering Azerbaijan some time and space to regain territories that are legally part of Azerbaijan but that have been under Armenian control since 1994.

And what about Armenia? From a Russian standpoint, the country will have few options other than to stick with Russia. Even if other states might sound supportive of it now, Armenia knows that Russia remains the only country that would deploy troops to defend it. So, even if Russia lets Azerbaijan recapture some territories, Armenia will have to remain a loyal Russian ally.


With Russia, it's all about control and influence. Or basically dominance. Not to have an alliance where other's can have a say (and thus can have a mind of their own, like Turkey's horse trading now with Swedish and Finnish NATO membership or the various times when France and other allies haven't gone along with US foreign policy adventures).
Agent Smith May 21, 2022 at 06:09 #698594
Putin isn't immortal, neither are his henchmen. Patience NATO, patience!

:snicker:
Olivier5 May 21, 2022 at 07:18 #698606
Good New Yorker article about the way the Russian propaganda machine is structured and functions:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-communications/inside-putins-propaganda-machine
Wayfarer May 21, 2022 at 08:37 #698621
This is what 'being liberated by Russia' looks like. Who wouldn't want that?

User image
Streetlight May 21, 2022 at 08:48 #698625
Meanwhile, being 'liberated' by the West looks like:

In March, the Ukrainian parliament passed wartime legislation that severely curtailed the ability of trade unions to represent their members, introduced ‘suspension of employment’ (meaning employees are not fired, but their work and wages are suspended) and gave employers the right to unilaterally suspend collective agreements. But beyond this temporary measure, a group of Ukrainian MPs and officials are now aiming to further ‘liberalise’ and ‘de-Sovietise’ the country’s labour laws. Under a draft law, people who work in small and medium-sized firms – those which have up to 250 employees – would, in effect, be removed from the country’s existing labour laws and covered by individual contracts negotiated with their employer. More than 70% of the Ukrainian workforce would be affected by this change.

Against a background of concerns that Ukrainian officials are using Russia’s invasion to push through a long-awaited radical deregulation of labour laws, one expert has warned that the introduction of civil law into labour relations risks opening a “Pandora’s box” for workers. ... Vitaliy Dudin, an expert on labour law and a representative of the Social Movement organisation, says the proposed new law is the “most radical approach to destroying the social partnership model”. For Dudin, the most destructive part of the new legislation is the introduction of Ukraine’s civil law into employment relations. According to him, Ukraine’s civil law is based on the idea that two parties are equal, whereas the relationship between an employer and employee is not – the employer is always in a more advantageous position. “This is a rollback to the 19th century. By introducing civil law into labour relations, we can open Pandora’s box,” he says


https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraines-new-labour-law-wartime/

Can't post pictures of atrocity porn to get-off to on this topic, however. Not that Russia would do any better, but the West is no less a terminal virus which similarly ought to be expunged.
Streetlight May 21, 2022 at 08:52 #698626
As for Finland and Sweden's rush to join NATO - as ever, one simply needs to follow the money:

The demographic most opposed to NATO membership in Sweden is young men, aged 18-29. And little wonder. They are the segment of the population that would be called upon to join any future military excursion. Contrary to the assumption that Russian aggression has shocked Swedes into unanimous support for the alliance, opposition appears to be on the rise. ... Polling by Helsingin Sanomat describes the typical NATO supporter as educated, middle-aged or older, male, working in a management-level position, earning at least €85,000 a year and politically on the right, while the typical NATO-sceptic is under the age of 30, a worker or a student, earning less than €20,000 a year and politically on the left.

Some of the most ardent supporters of NATO membership can be found among Sweden and Finland’s business leaders. Last month, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö hosted a ‘secret NATO meeting’ in Helsinki. Among those in attendance were Swedish Minister of Finance Mikael Damberg, top-ranking military officials and powerful figures in the Swedish and Finnish business communities. Chief among them was the billionaire Swedish industrialist Jacob Wallenberg, whose family holdings add up to one third of the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Wallenberg has been NATO’s most enthusiastic cheerleader among Swedish executives.

...The decision to join NATO does not just rely on a hollowed-out discourse of solidarity; it is also presented as a vital act of self-interest – a defensive response to the ‘Russian threat’. In Sweden’s case, we are asked to believe that the country is currently facing greater security risks than during both World Wars, and that the only way to address them is to enter a beefed-up military alliance. Although Russia is supposedly struggling to make headway against a much weaker opponent in Ukraine – unable to hold the capital, hemorrhaging troops and supplies – we are told that it poses an imminent threat to Stockholm and Helsinki. Amid such confected panic, genuine threats to the Nordic way of life have gone ignored: the withering away of the welfare state, the privatization and marketization of education, rising inequality and the weakening of the universal healthcare system. While rushing to align with ‘the West’, the Swedish and Finnish governments have shown considerably less urgency in tackling these social crises.


https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/joining-the-west?pc=1442

Turns out I too, like listening to 'local' voices - just not voices that happen to align with the rich and powerful.
Olivier5 May 21, 2022 at 09:30 #698633
Quoting Streetlight
the West is no less a terminal virus which similarly ought to be expunged.


You might appreciate this diatribe in Al Jazeera:


The future is post-Western
This current chapter of Western-run human history must be flung shut.
Yannick Giovanni Marshall
Published On 20 May 2022

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/5/20/the-future-is-post-western

Yannick Giovanni Marshall is currently Assistant Professor of Africana Studies (sic) at Knox College, Galesburg, Illinois (re-sic).
Streetlight May 21, 2022 at 09:39 #698635
Reply to Olivier5 No that was boring and unspecific.
Olivier5 May 21, 2022 at 10:05 #698641
Reply to Streetlight I guess it's hard to be specific about a post western world when one is born and raised in Canada, as is the case for the author.

Maybe you want to give it a try. Could be a nice thread.
Streetlight May 21, 2022 at 10:23 #698647
Reply to Olivier5 Because I am not a racist and a bigot, I reckon most people can discuss anything regardless of where they are from.
Olivier5 May 21, 2022 at 10:50 #698657
Reply to Streetlight Of course they can discuss anything, but it's difficult to imagine the end of one's own world. People living in the Roman empire could hardly imagine its fall. Apparently a similar phenomenon happened to some American nations during the European colonization. They felt it was a bad dream, a nightmare from which they would wake up at some point.

Problem is, they never woke up from it. They had to accept the nightmare as real.

Something similar will happen to our civilization, at a not so distant point now. We cannot really imagine it, only dimly. And when it happens, few will understand what just happened, because we see the world through our self-satisfied, self-gratulating western eyes.
Streetlight May 21, 2022 at 10:50 #698658
Reply to Olivier5 Speak for parochial yourself.
Olivier5 May 21, 2022 at 10:53 #698661
Reply to Streetlight Oh no, what I say on one's cultural framework restricting the domain of what is "thinkable" only applies to other people. Moi? I speak for the entire universe. ;-)
neomac May 21, 2022 at 12:29 #698679
[quote=“Apollodorus;698437”]If you really want to know who the original inhabitants of Crimea were, then you should try to find out instead on fixating on Tatars just because it serves your political agenda.[/quote]

YOU should feel compelled to find out who the original inhabitants of Crimea were by your own theory of the rightful owners, NOT ME! And in any case it’s NOT the Russians!


Quoting Apollodorus
Tatars and other Turkic peoples originally came from the same area as the Mongols and are genetically closely related to them.


Authors Joo-Yup Lee and Shuntu Kuang analyzed ten years of genetic research on Turkic people and compiled scholarly information about Turkic origins, and said that the early and medieval Turks were a heterogeneous group and that the Turkification of Eurasia was a result of language diffusion, not a migration of a homogeneous population .
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkic_migration#Origin_theories

You keep talking about the origins of the Tatars and Turkic peoples (while conflating genetic with cultural-linguistic factors), not about the Crimean Tatars whose origins are indigenous to Crimea and stem from millennia of demographic stratification that preceded and followed Mongol invasions! You didn't disprove anything I said about the Crimean Tatars! They are NOT the Mongols of Crimea as the filo-Russian propaganda would claim!


Quoting Apollodorus
The Greeks were the first to introduce civilization and to build cities in Crimea from the 5th century BC, and southern Crimea remained Greek until it was conquered by Turkey in 1475, i.e., it was GREEK for a thousand years!


From the evidence I provided the ancient Tauri community merged with the Crimean Tatars (at least in good part, considering that the Crimean Greek-speaking Greeks were deported outside Crimea again by the Russians https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Greeks#History), so I don't see how the distinction you make can be of any help to you. But hey if you think that the original inhabitants of Crimea are the Greeks, then, again, you should support the "Crimean Greeks", or the Ukrainian Greeks or the Greeks in general (if you want to go as far as to claim that Crimea and other parts of Ukraine like Mariupol and Donetsk belong to Greece!) and - for exactly the same reason - oppose the Russification of Crimea (and Ukraine) as an imperialist and colonialist process against indigenous people of Crimea!

In any case Crimean Tatars have surely more of a claim on Crimea than the Russians for historical reasons! In other words Russians are not the right owners of Crimea!


Quoting Apollodorus
By taking Crimea from the Tatars and Turks in 1783, Russia reintegrated Crimea into Europe, put an end to the Tatar depredations, and redressed a historic injustice. And justice, after all, is what this is about.


The "historic injustice” you are referring to concerns the raids of the Crimean–Nogai Horde of centuries ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean%E2%80%93Nogai_slave_raids_in_Eastern_Europe) to the Russians of centuries ago not to the current Crimean Tatars and, as I argued, only a sub-group of Crimean Tatars may have genetic ties with the Crimean–Nogai Horde! ([I]“It is the most likely that discovered features of Steppe Crimean Tatars gene pool reflect the genetic contribution of medieval Eurasian Steppe nomads. The component predominant in Mountain and Coastal Crimean Tatars gene pools and in Crimean Greeks suggests that genetic contribution of East Mediterranean populations continued in Crimea for many centuries.”[/I] Source: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/the-gene-pool-of-indigenous-crimean-populations-mediterranean-meets-eurasian-steppe/pdf, “The Westasian and Mediterranean genetic components (population of Asia Minor and Balkans) predominate in the gene pool of Crimea Tatars, the Eurasian steppe component is much fewer.” Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311805917_The_Tatars_of_Eurasia_peculiarity_of_Crimean_Volga_and_Siberian_Tatar_gene_pools). But notice that Turkic people inhabited Crimea for centuries prior to the Crimean-Nogai Horde (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgars , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khazars) and even prior to the formation of Kievan Rus’ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27)!
Finally, not only the Russian ancestors were the victims of Crimean-Niogai Tatars' raids but also the Ukrainian ancestors (more likely so, since Crimea is attached to Ukraine) so why on earth should Crimea be a compensation for the Russians and not for the Ukrainians?!

But tell me more about how your "historic injustice” theory work, should the Russians become the right owners of Mongolia too, or Crimea is enough as a compensation?! BTW Russian ancestors pillaged, raped and enslaved Azerbaijani and Iranian people too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_expeditions_of_the_Rus%27 so are Azerbaijan and Iran right owners of pieces of Russia as a compensation now?! And what is the compensation for the Ukrainian oppression by the Russian empire as Lenin acknowledged (https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1914/dec/12a.htm) and by Stalin, the Russian national hero (https://cla.umn.edu/chgs/holocaust-genocide-education/resource-guides/holodomor)?!

Quoting Apollodorus
If we say that “Crimea belongs to the Tatars” and the Tatars are considered to be Turks, we can see how this can be an invitation for Turkey to try and bring Crimea under its control and we’re playing into the hands of Erdogan who aims to rebuild the Ottoman Empire.


According to YOUR theory, if Crimean Tatars want to join Turkey, that should be fine with you too!
SophistiCat May 21, 2022 at 13:15 #698689
Reply to neomac Rather than arguing about the racial origins of Crimean Tatars, let me tell you something about the actual people. I bet that most here have never seen a Crimean Tatar in person - they are not so numerous now, and they have historically lived compactly in and around Crimea - before Stalin's deportation, that is.

Crimean Tatars have strong community bonds; this is what helped them preserve their national and cultural identity through their troubled Soviet history. Following Stalin's death, they were partially cleared of the charge of Nazi collaboration, but without the right of return to their homeland and without restoration of their seized property. Later, in the 1960s, the collective punishment was finally lifted from the Crimean Tatar people, together with the prohibition of settling in Crimea, but no compensation or resettlement assistance was offered. On the contrary, although they were no longer legally barred from living in Crimea, authorities made it very difficult for Tatars to move there. This was helped by Soviet Catch-22 registration laws (the infamous propiska), which technically made it next to impossible for people to change residence within the country without being explicitly authorized and directed by the state. In an apt illustration of a popular saying that the severity of Russian laws is moderated by their arbitrary enforcement, motivated people found ways around that legal thicket. Except that in the case of Crimean Tatars enforcement was anything but arbitrary. However, thanks to hard work and cooperation, Tatars trickled back to their homeland over the ensuing decades, and you could see them here and there on the peninsula.

In the late 1980s, on the wave of general liberalization, Crimean Tatars were campaigning for their right of return, assisted by Russian human rights activists with a lot of experience navigating Moscow bureaucracy. I shared a flat with members of their delegation for a couple of weeks at that time. Lovely people, from what I can remember of them.

The bureaucratic wall finally fell at the high point of Perestroika. Shortly after the USSR was dissolved, and under the benign neglect of the newly sovereign Ukrainian state Tatars streamed back to Crimea. Most Crimean Tatar families were able to return, even without assistance from the state - such was their determination to regain their homeland. Now, however, they are once again facing repression from Russia. Shortly after it annexed Crimea, Russia banned the main organization of Crimean Tatars that served as their informal organ of self-government and mutual aid, and exiled its leader. Dozens have since been imprisoned on trumped-up charges; many had to flee to mainland Ukraine - where they are now once again being pursued by Russian occupiers.


I recall one encounter in central Crimea, from the time before the annexation. I was on a local train from Bakhchysarai, on my way to meet some friends. There were two women in the same car, one young, one middle-aged - probably her mother. The young woman was dressed in modern urban garb and spoke in Russian. The older wore more a traditional rural clothing - dark dress and a headscarf. She spoke in what I assumed to be one of the Crimean Tatar dialects, with no admixture of Russian words (as often happens with non-Russian people who live among Russian speakers). They carried on their conversation throughout the entire trip, neither one the least bit inconvenienced by this superposition of dissimilar languages.
neomac May 21, 2022 at 13:20 #698692
Quoting SophistiCat
?neomac
Rather than arguing about the racial origins of Crimean Tatars, let me tell you something about the actual people. I bet that most here have never seen a Crimean Tatar in person - they are not so numerous now, and they have historically lived compactly in and around Crimea - before Stalin's deportation, that is.


:ok:
ssu May 21, 2022 at 15:26 #698715
Reply to Streetlight

That was interesting. Especially when you look at the sources on the new left review article.

A quote:

Polling by Helsingin Sanomat describes the typical NATO supporter as educated, middle-aged or older, male, working in a management-level position, earning at least €85,000 a year and politically on the right, while the typical NATO-sceptic is under the age of 30, a worker or a student, earning less than €20,000 a year and politically on the left.


Luckily the article gives the link to the Helsingin Sanomat article, which is in Finnish. Which actually states this:

Tyypillinen Natoon liittymisen kannattaja on akateemisesti koulutettu keski-ikäinen tai ikääntyvä mies, joka on ammatiltaan johtaja tai ylempi toimihenkilö. Hän ansaitsee yli 85?000 euroa vuodessa ja kuuluu poliittisesti oikealle. Puolueista hän kannattaa kokoomusta.

Kriittisimmin Natoon suhtautuvat alle 30-vuotiaat ja naiset. Nato-kriittiset ovat peruskoulutettuja työntekijöitä tai opiskelijoita. He ansaitsevat alle 20?000 euroa vuodessa ja kuuluvat poliittisesti vasemmalle.

On kuitenkin huomattava, että myös kriittisemmin Natoon suhtautuvissa ryhmissä enemmistö ja osin hyvinkin selvä enemmistö kannattaa Nato-jäsenyyttä.

NATON kannatus on lisääntynyt kahden viime viikon aikana erityisesti työntekijöiden, alle 20?000 euroa vuodessa ansaitsevien, peruskoulutettujen, työväenluokkaan kuuluvien, opiskelijoiden sekä sosiaalidemokraatteja ja vihreitä kannattavien joukossa.


The first two paragraphs is used in the article, which explain who is the typical person in favour of NATO and who are against (under 30, women etc). What is (naturally?) dismissed are the following paragraphs of the same article:

And this is what that's in English:

It should be noted, however, that even in the more critical NATO groups, the majority, and in some cases, a very clear majority are in favor of NATO membership.

Support for NATO has increased over the last two weeks especially among workers, those earning less than € 20,000 a year, those in basic education, the working class, students and those in favor of the Social Democrats and the Greens.


And here is the prime example of media bias.

It's not based on lies, it's about selective use of sources and a noteworthy comment like a) that there has been a rapid change in the views of young leftist people and that b) and there is a clear majority among all age groups etc is not something worthy or notable to write in the article.

That actually the Finnish Parliament voted 188 to 8 in favor of NATO, which one of the most unanimous votes ever taken in the Parliament (a bigger majority than the vote in 1917 for Independence), isn't noted.

Hence Lily Lynch's agenda is quite easy to see.
Isaac May 21, 2022 at 16:11 #698723
Quoting ssu
Hence Lily Lynch's agenda is quite easy to see.


And your agenda? Pointing out the omissions in a left-wing, anti-NATO article...?

Do we see the same eagle-eyed hunt for bias in the more centrist, mainstream offerings others have posted? No, of course not.

Spotting bias in politically embedded arguments is like spotting typographic errors. Pointless and ubiquitous.

What matters is why Lynch is looking to find a leftist, anti-NATO angle, and why your biases are looking to support a centrist, pro-NATO one.

I can't speak for Lynch, but the benefits of a leftist, anti-NATO view seem obvious - equality, fair distribution of power, etc.

What's different about centrists is that their arguments seem entirely to plead necessity : "we'd love to reign in America's power but unfortunately we're forced to pick the lesser of two evils", or "we'd love nothing more than to give more to the poor, but unfortunately the economy just doesn't work that way, our hands are tied".

So the whole centrist agenda relies on the objective, cold, hard, rational assessment. Which is why you guys cling so desperately to this idea of impartially.

Except it's bollocks.
Isaac May 21, 2022 at 16:20 #698726
Oh and...

Quoting ssu
And here is the prime example of media bias.


The mainstream media are literally inviting arms dealers on to give commentary on how the war is going.

Newspapers are actually contradicting their own previous reports to change the narrative about Nazis.

Social media platforms are consulting with the government to ban anything contrary to the official government line on the war.

...and only now you see fit to bring up media bias, now there's a left-wing article?
Mikie May 21, 2022 at 20:16 #698796
How long do we think this war will carry on for, now that the Russians have Mariupol?

ssu May 21, 2022 at 20:59 #698807
Quoting Xtrix
How long do we think this war will carry on for, now that the Russians have Mariupol?

Far longer than it should, unfortunately. Russia cannot obtain it's objectives. But it can prolong the war if Putin wants to prolong it. Putin hasn't ever had to withdraw from a fight, so he unlikely will do it.

The problem is that it when both sides are out of steam for an offensive, it can just become static as before (in 2015-2022). Zelensky has declared that now Ukraine has 700 000 in service now. As obviously a major part of that force aren't frontline troops, it's still a huge manpower reserve. In the 8 years of fighting before this large scale attack about 400 000 Ukrainians did serve on the front. These make the backbone of a qualified reserve for Ukraine.
Mikie May 21, 2022 at 21:22 #698815
Quoting ssu
The problem is that it when both sides are out of steam for an offensive, it can just become static as before (in 2015-2022).


Perhaps then peace negotiations can start again and we can get a ceasefire, at the very least.
ssu May 22, 2022 at 07:27 #698954
Quoting Xtrix
Perhaps then peace negotiations can start again and we can get a ceasefire, at the very least.

The question is why would there be a ceasefire. Ceasefires happen when either one side sees the situation totally unbearable or are close to defeat and the other sees a ceasefire a far better choice than the continuation of the war. There is no imminent outside reason for the conflict to end.

It will have to end in an ceasefire. It's extremely unprobable that Putin can invade all of Ukraine and Ukrainian tanks will never be on the Red Square.

Likely Putin is embracing for a long war. Already in the Duma they are talking about postponing future elections. As elections would according to some in the Duma be bad for morale.

On May 17, lawmakers in the State Duma discussed the possibility of cancelling both gubernatorial and regional and municipal elections scheduled for September 11, 2022. The stated reason is the need to support the president unanimously during Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.

- - -

Under the circumstances of the special military operation, do we need to hold elections on [September 11]? We should all be unified now, but what will happen in elections? We’ll have to fight against each other. All of us here in this chamber support the president and the special military operation, but we’ll need to talk about our differences in elections,” Just Russia party chairman Sergey Mironov said in a speech to the State Duma on May 17.
Streetlight May 22, 2022 at 08:20 #698963
Quoting ssu
That actually the Finnish Parliament voted 188 to 8 in favor of NATO, which one of the most unanimous votes ever taken in the Parliament (a bigger majority than the vote in 1917 for Independence), isn't noted.


God I wish you were even semi-literate:

[quote=The Article]In Finland, however, there is little mainstream opposition to NATO. The issue has been tinged by nationalist sentiment, and opponents of membership are accused of not caring about their country’s security. Parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of membership this week, with 188 for and only eight against.[/quote]

But that would be too much to except to a Nazi PR pusher.
ssu May 22, 2022 at 09:27 #698983
Quoting Streetlight
God I wish you were even semi-literate:

OK! So she mentioned that. So I stand corrected, enough to be corrected earlier in the article that I didn't notice it. Yet the issue is that now in every age group and income group, there is a majority for NATO membership. Which was left out. (So at least I have better in Finnish literacy than you are, Aussie.)

And how much "nationalist sentiment" is there in the Green Party, The Social Democrats and the Left Alliance now in government sounds a bit dubious for me. The Left Alliance didn't walk out of the government, so I guess they uphold "nationalism" now.

You just continue and tell us how bad Ukraine, the Ukrainian government and perhaps the Ukrainians are (Nazis, corrupt neoliberals oligarch lovers and so on...) and how the West (US) is turning a blind eye on the evils of Ukraine. Because that's the most important issue here, right?
Isaac May 22, 2022 at 12:52 #699074
Quoting ssu
the issue is that now in every age group and income group, there is a majority for NATO membership.


Pathetic attempt at deflection.

The issue is that support for NATO membership is being driven by industries who stand to benefit from it. Which is why...

Though Sweden has held referenda on every major decision in recent history – EU membership, the adoption of the euro – it will not consult its citizens on NATO.


And why the article opens with a description of the heavily propagandised media to conclude...

In this media environment, it is perhaps unsurprising that support for NATO membership is high


The demographics are only really mentioned to show the blatant lie behind...

the political class ‘will now face a contest between an older generation and younger ones looking at the world with fresh eyes.’


...by revealing that...

In reality, though, the opposite is true:

the typical NATO-sceptic is under the age of 30, a worker or a student, earning less than €20,000 a year and politically on the left.


Far from the soulless statistical reportage you're critiquing, the point of the article is that, for example,...

Swedish industrialist Jacob Wallenberg, whose family holdings add up to one third of the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Wallenberg has been NATO’s most enthusiastic cheerleader among Swedish executives.

Sweden’s Expressen reported that the meeting suggested the business community holds far greater power over foreign policy decisions than previously thought.


...and...

Chief Executive Micael Johansson has said that Sweden’s NATO membership will open new possibilities for Saab in the areas of missile defense and surveillance.

The considerable influence of business leaders on the NATO question contrasts with that of the general public.


But by all means carry on pretending that this is about getting the polling right and ignore the blatant railroading of the issue by big business. I'm sure the fact that they stand to make billions out of the move is just another one of those coincidences we hear so much about lately, where rich and powerful institutions are both capable of influencing policy and benefit from influencing policy, but on this occasion just happen not to have done.


And by the way, I was tucking into some Knäckebröd, whilst listening to Abba in my Fjällräven shirt whilst writing that so I'm totally allowed to have an opinion on it.
ssu May 22, 2022 at 13:13 #699077
Quoting Isaac
the blatant railroading of the issue by big business.


Lol. Oh boy, are you clueless. Last time big business was indeed "blatantly railroading" was with the EU membership. And that was a close call, actually. But of course you don't know anything about my country. And it seems that you have mixed my and @Christoffer's country, which is quite telling. :snicker:
Isaac May 22, 2022 at 13:34 #699083
Quoting ssu
But of course you don't know anything about my country.


So on what grounds are you even taking part in a thread on Ukraine?

Quoting ssu
And it seems that you have mixed my and Christoffer's country, which is quite telling. :snicker:


The article was about Finland and Sweden. You're from Finland are Christoffer is from Sweden. Is that wrong?
Christoffer May 22, 2022 at 16:14 #699152
Since Chomsky is a common source for everyone who likes to muddy the waters as to who's the aggressor and downplay Ukrainian's right to defend themselves, here's an open letter as a response.

https://blogs.berkeley.edu/2022/05/19/open-letter-to-noam-chomsky-and-other-like-minded-intellectuals-on-the-russia-ukraine-war/?fbclid=IwAR0jG9z-7zfHPsUmBZQr2w4vpljnHzwYQSBdwTJGyDAUBxu_gme1Ln2qs70
Benkei May 22, 2022 at 16:14 #699154
Quoting ssu
The question is why would there be a ceasefire. Ceasefires happen when either one side sees the situation totally unbearable or are close to defeat and the other sees a ceasefire a far better choice than the continuation of the war. There is no imminent outside reason for the conflict to end.


You're forgetting stalemates.

Reply to Christoffer I agree with all those nuances and I think it's still good to remember we really don't know all that much so shouldn't get our panties too twisted when someone disagrees. Also, we shouldn't overestimate the ability to emulate the scientific method through a thinking process - a lot is grunt work and getting enough data which we simply don't have the time for especially in areas like these: none of us our experts. But this is a sensitive topic even so and a lot of ethical feeling is associated with it, so when someone's panties are twisted, we shouldn't care too much either and at least try to listen.
Apollodorus May 22, 2022 at 18:20 #699231
Quoting neomac
According to YOUR theory, if Crimean Tatars want to join Turkey, that should be fine with you too!


Well, most of them have ALREADY joined Turkey! There are more Crimean Tatars in Turkey than in Crimea! :grin:

The official number of Crimean Tatars in Turkey is 150,000 with some Crimean Tatar activists estimating a figure as high as 6 million. - Crimean Tatars, Wikipedia


So, you seem to be not only ignorant but also confused.

The fact of the matter is that the original inhabitants of the area comprising southeastern Ukraine, southwestern Russia, and Crimea were Eastern European hunter-gatherers a.k.a. Eastern Hunter-Gatherers (EHGs):

During the Mesolithic, the EHGs inhabited an area stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Urals and downwards to the Pontic–Caspian steppe. Eastern Hunter-Gatherer – Wikipedia


By the time of the late Copper Age to early Bronze Age (3300–2600 BC), the population of the Pontic-Caspian steppe (which includes Crimea) formed the Yamnaya (Pit Grave) Culture.

The people of the Yamnaya culture were likely the result of a genetic admixture between the descendants of Eastern European Hunter-Gatherers (EHG) and people related to hunter-gatherers from the Caucasus (CHG), an ancestral component which is often named "Steppe ancestry", with additional admixture of up to 18% from Early European Farmers. – Wikipedia


The Yamnaya people were semi-nomadic and later farmers, herded cattle and sheep, practiced metallurgy and some agriculture, apparently invented the wheel (the worlds’ oldest wheels were found in the area), had carts and wagons probably drawn by oxen, and rode horses.

The Yamnaya were Caucasoid (Indo-European) people who gradually expanded westward into Europe and eastward into Asia, spreading Indo-European language and culture, and making major genetic contributions to European populations (75% of genomic DNA in Bronze-Age Central European populations). The first historically recorded inhabitants of Crimea, the Tauri or Taurians (Greek Tauroi), clearly were from the area.

In contrast, the Turkic peoples were a Mongoloid population originally from Northeastern China and Northeast Asia, who moved westward into Mongolia in the late 3rd millennium BC, where they adopted a pastoral lifestyle, after which they became equestrian nomads and began to expand westward into European (Caucasoid) territory.

Being nomadic horsemen and armed with bows and arrows, the Turkic tribes found it easy to invade European territories and raid the farming settlements they found there. When the Mongols invaded the area, the Turkic tribes allied themselves with their Mongolian relatives and formed a new ruling class that enslaved the local Slavic populations.

As various nomadic groups became part of Genghis Khan's army in the early 13th century, a fusion of Mongol and Turkic elements took place, and the invaders of Rus' and the Pannonian Basin became known to Europeans as Tatars - Tatars, Wikipedia


The Crimean Khanate originated in the early 15th century when certain clans of the Golden Horde Empire ceased their nomadic life in the Desht-i Kipchak (Kypchak Steppes of today's Ukraine and southern Russia) and decided to make Crimea their yurt (homeland) - Crimean Khanate, Wikipedia


The Tatars, therefore, were Mongols and Turks with some admixture from the local populations they had invaded and enslaved. The Crimean Tatar Khanate emerged after the Mongol invasions and had a multi-ethnic population dominated by a Mongol-Turkic a.k.a. “Tatar” ruling class. The first ruler of the Crimean Tatar Khanate was the Mongol Hac? Giray, a descendant of Genghis Khan’s eldest son Jochi.

Moreover, the Crimean Tatars showed their true colors when they tried to take over all the Slav territories that had been conquered by Genghis Khan’s Golden Horde to which they saw themselves as heirs. Encouraged by Turkey, they devastated South Russia and burned down Moscow in 1571. However, the Russians in those days had not yet forgotten their Viking ancestry and still knew how to fight. In the following year they thoroughly defeated the Tatars at the Battle of Molodi.

Nevertheless, under the protection of Turkey (Ottoman Empire), the Crimean Tatars kept attacking Ukraine, Russia, and other Slav territories for the next two centuries until the Russians gradually pushed back the Turks and reclaimed the region.

Crimean–Nogai slave raids in Eastern Europe - Wikipedia

1. Given that Turkic tribes (a) were non-local invaders and (b) were involved in the enslavement and exploitation of earlier local populations, it cannot be claimed that they are “rightful owners” of Crimea.

2. Given that several non-Turkic ethnic groups existed in Crimea (Tauri, Scythians, Greeks, Goths, etc.) prior to the arrival of the Tatars, it cannot be claimed that the Tatars were “the majority”. On the contrary, if we consider that even ordinary Tatars had several domestic, agricultural, and sex slaves, we can see that the non-Tatar population must have been significant.

Indeed, about 75% of Crimea’s population under the Khanate (or Tatar State) itself were non-Tatar slaves and freedmen, i.e., mostly Slavs from Russia, Ukraine, and Poland, and Caucasians from places like Georgia and Circassia.

3.1. Following the Russian liberation of Crimea from Tatar and Turkish rule in 1783, most Crimean Tatars emigrated to various parts of Turkey (Ottoman Empire).

3.2. By 1897, Tatars were only 35% of Crimea’s population.

3.3. During the 1921 Russian Famine, thousands of Crimean Tatars emigrated to Turkey.

3.4. When Stalin in 1944 resettled Crimean Tatars to Turkic areas within the Soviet Union (e.g., Uzbekistan), the Tatars were already a small minority

3.5. Tatars currently amount to about 10% of Crimea’s total population.

4. Given that the Crimean Tatars were involved in the capture, enslavement, and sale into slavery of millions of Slavs whose total number exceeded that of the Tatars, it cannot be claimed that the Slav population owes anything to Tatars in relation to the latter’s subsequent “expulsion” from Crimea.

5. On the principle that “every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners”, if anyone has a legitimate claim to being “rightful owners” of Crimea, it is the Tauri (Taurians) and their descendants. But the Greeks also have a claim to parts of Crimea as they built cities, established international trade, and brought prosperity and civilization. They also civilized the Russians who in turn liberated Crimea from the Turkic invaders.

6. In contrast to Greeks and Russians who were from the area, the Turkic populations (Cumans, Turks, Mongols, Tatars) were an alien, invasive element from thousands of miles (4000km/2485mi) away that was highly aggressive and predatory toward the locals.

All facts considered, I think it doesn’t make sense to claim that “Crimea belongs to the Tatars” or to Ukraine. And even less to America. So, I for one fail to see why America thinks it must stick its neo-colonialist snout in the European trough.

But let’s take a look at the Tatars’ own claims lest we are accused of ignoring or persecuting them.

Here’s a post from the “International Committee for Crimea”:

Genetically, who is a Crimean Tatar? – ICCRIMEA

I want to share with you the recent results obtained from my participation in the Genographic Project, sponsored by the National Geographic Society, a reputable organization in the US. By analyzing the DNA samples, the Project aims to trace the journey one’s ancestors may have taken over the centuries. The test is easy and painless. I ordered DNA Ancestry Kit Geno 2.0, collected two samples and mailed them to the designated laboratory. My identity remained anonymous throughout the process. (https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/about/)

I was born in Istanbul, but I am of Crimean Tatar descent. All of my grandparents originated from Crimea. My paternal grandfather’s family lived in Yevpatoria on the west, my maternal grandfather’s family came from Yalta in the south, and paternal grandmother’s family was from the Kerch peninsula on the east. My maternal grandmother’s family migrated to Turkey from Romania. All these families left Crimea in the 19th century, but they considered themselves Crimean Tatars and their native language was Crimean Tatar.

Here are the results of my DNA tests:

28% Northern Asian
22% Northern European
20% Southwest Asian (Middle East)
20% Mediterranean
7% Southeast Asian
2% Native American

In sum, I am 37% Asian, 42% European and 20% Middle Eastern. Perhaps the most surprising finding is the 2 percent Native American genes that I carry. This does not mean that any of my ancestors married Native Americans. Rather, some of my very distant ancestors were among those who migrated to the North American continent about 20,000 years ago. Similarly, one can explain the presence of the 7 percent Southeast Asian genes.

The above DNA test results reaffirm what we have known from history that Crimean Tatars are descendants of the various peoples who settled and lived in Crimea for centuries. The Crimean Tatars, indigenous people of Crimea, did not just come from the East, as many are inclined to think. Rather, they are the descendants of the people who moved to Crimea from different directions: Scythians, Goths, Byzantines, Genovese, and Turkic groups such as Khazars, Kipchaks, Tatars and Ottoman Turks.

No doubt, there are thousands of Crimean Tatars living in Crimea today who have a similar genetic makeup to mine. Some may have more Asian genes or more European genes perhaps. To those ultranationalist Russians who say to Crimean Tatars “Go back to where you came from,” one may respond: “Where should they go? They have nowhere to go but Crimea.”


Essentially, what those DNA results really boil down to is the following:

28% Northern Asian = Siberian (Mongol/Turk) = Tatar
20% Mediterranean = Greek/Italian
22% Northern European = Scandinavian? Baltic?
20% Middle Eastern = ? (Iranian? Turkish? Jewish? Egyptian/Arab?)

“Northern Asian” and “Mediterranean” seem pretty clear, i.e., (1) Mongol/Turk and (2) Greek/Italian.

“Northern European” is already less clear. It could be Scandinavian (Viking) via Rus (Russian, Ukrainian). But in that case there should be some Eastern European (Slav) element that seems to be missing here. Other possibilities would be Goth (originally from Gotland) or Lithuanian (from captured and enslaved Baltic populations).

“Middle Eastern” is totally unclear as it could be a wide range of unrelated Southwest Asian ethnicities.

Now, if someone is of “Northern Asian, Northern European, Mediterranean, and Middle Eastern” descent, then by definition, that person isn’t an indigenous Crimean!

If he is 42% European and only 28% Tatar then why does he call himself “Tatar” and not “European”?

What is it that makes him a Tatar more than a European?

Could it be that he is descended from people that were mostly Europeans but were forced to speak Tatar and convert to Islam?

Or did Allah give Crimea to his Mongol great-great-grandfather?

Has he been radicalized by Turkish nationalists and imperialists who think that Crimea belongs to the Ottoman Empire?

Is he being used by the CIA and MI6 against Russia?

Etc., etc. …. These are important questions that need an answer.

In the meantime, I think the apparently arbitrary self-designation “Crimean Tatar” is highly problematic and lends itself to manipulation for political and/or commercial purposes.

It reminds me of the way “Native American” is sometimes misused. Some Americans obviously are Native American, but others are less so. Take Johnny Depp, for example, who claimed to be “Cherokee” but it turned out that he had made it up. In reality, he is English, French, German, Irish, and West African. So, he got himself adopted by a Comanche family to “prove” that he didn’t lie about being Native American! :rofl:

But I think philosophers should at least try to be more truthful than Hollywood actors ….

Quoting ssu
With Russia, it's all about control and influence.


Well, how is it different with America?

What Russia obviously wants in the region is neighbors that are friendly toward it or at least neutral.

Which is exactly what America wants in its own "backyard" that apparently includes Europe, parts of Asia, and the Pacific ....

Quoting Isaac
You're from Finland and Christoffer is from Sweden. Is that wrong?


Good question. I for one am not entirely convinced that it is right. People claim all kinds of things. Could it be that @ssu and @Christoffer both are from Finland? After all, it used to be one country ....

Quoting Olivier5
Then why are so many trying to emigrate there, or in Europe?


Well, I think you know why they're in France? It's because "La Grande Nation" screwed up their countries!

And some, apparently, are on their way to England.

But not all are there to live under your boot. Allegedly, some think they're there to take over .... :wink:

ssu May 22, 2022 at 18:50 #699241
Quoting Benkei
You're forgetting stalemates.


Stalemate is what we have seen in Donbas after the larger battles in 2014-2015 before February 24th of this year. When both sides have no incentive or ability for larger operations, stalemate ensues. But usually that doesn't mean that it will be peaceful. The stalemate option is very probable, only to be then to be replaced with new offensives.

Actually in many cases there has been this kind of low intensity conflict going on beneath the radar of the international media. Not only in Donbas, but earlier in the Israeli-Lebanese border or the War of Attrition after the Six Day War in 1967-1970. Even in the Iran-Iraq war there were these times of less fighting when both sides replenished their stocks.

Russia simply has to take a breather if it wants to build up it's forces. And even if Ukraine will get supplies and modern weapon systems from the West, it usually takes months to deploy these systems.
unenlightened May 22, 2022 at 19:46 #699263
We're desperately short of proper communist propaganda on the thread, so here is my humble contribution to restoring the balance somewhat.

https://labourheartlands.com/jacques-baud-the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-update/
ssu May 22, 2022 at 19:46 #699264
Quoting Apollodorus
With Russia, it's all about control and influence.
— ssu

Well, how is it different with America?

There's differences.

Quoting Apollodorus
What Russia obviously wants in the region is neighbors that are friendly toward it or at least neutral.

Which is exactly what America wants in its own "backyard" that apparently includes Europe, parts of Asia, and the Pacific ....

There's a difference in how the US has acted in Europe and how it has acted in Central America and the Caribbean. Just as how Russia acts in it's "near abroad" and towards other countries let's say in Western Europe or Latin America.

But let's first think of the broader picture. Just look at what the Warsaw Pact did compared to NATO. And how many countries wanted to continue the relationship with Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed. Not many, I think.

A lot can be said about NATO post-Cold War operations, yes, but let's remember that the only time when the Warsaw Pact acted was with Operation Danube in crushing the "Prague Spring" with the invasion of Czechoslovakia. Of the half million troops deployed to the country the majority were Soviet troops, but for example Poland deployed 28 000 men into Czechoslovakia, Hungary one division. Have NATO troops been used this way? Nope.

The fact is that Russia's actions and attitudes haven't become much different from the Soviet times. Same kind of bully tactics have continued. I've had a front row seat to see this in action when the Soviet neighbor transformed into being Russia again. There's not much difference especially during the Putin years. Fall of the Soviet Union seems to have been a temporary set back, while I think that after Suez crisis the UK understood that there was no Empire anymore.

You yourself have noted that Americans listened to European integrationists after WW2 and the positive US attitude towards West-European integration basically created the environment were European countries are all but happy with US participation in European defense. "Keeping the US in" as they say. We can see how countries can have a say in the Western alliance system now with Turkey, and many times NATO members have opted out from various US-lead operations. And have been extremely annoying to the US.

And of course obvious fact is that the US behaves quite differently towards Canada, the UK, Netherlands, Sweden or Finland, than it has behaved towards for example Guatemala, El Salvador, Haiti or Lebanon. First world countries and Third World countries are dealt differently. With Russia, it treats it's "near abroad" totally differently than other countries, which we have clearly seen now.

Above all, there is a dramatic difference between countries that have wanted to join the US-lead alliance and those countries where the US has literally installed a new government. The train wreck that we knew as Afghanistan has already collapsed in a huge catastrophe, while the relations between the US and the Post-Saddam Iraq have been cold and extremely problematic. Hence when the US has in Iraq and Afghanistan applied the old imperialist strategy of occupying a country and then picking a favorable administration for it, it usually has failed miserably.
Isaac May 22, 2022 at 20:12 #699270
Quoting ssu
Just look at what the Warsaw Pact did compared to NATO.


Yes, but the Warsaw Pact (WP),[5] was a collective defense treaty signed in Warsaw, Poland, between the Soviet Union and seven other Eastern Bloc socialist republics of Central and Eastern Europe in May 1955.

The thing we have to remember is that The Warsaw Pact was created in reaction to the integration of West Germany into NATO[6][7][8][9] in 1955 as per the London and Paris Conferences of 1954.

We shouldn't forget that There was no direct military confrontation between the two organisations; instead, the conflict was fought on an ideological basis and in proxy wars.

So, in conclusion, East Germany withdrew from the Pact following German reunification in 1990. On 25 February 1991, at a meeting in Hungary, the Pact was declared at an end by the defense and foreign ministers of the six remaining member states.
Olivier5 May 22, 2022 at 20:50 #699280
Quoting Apollodorus
Well, I think you know why they're in France? It's because "La Grande Nation" screwed up their countries!


What ruined Africa was first and foremost the slave trade. It made some Portuguese, French, English and other merchants very rich, as well as a few African kings, but at a horrendous human cost, and led to economic ruin from Senegal to Congo, on the West Coast.

Prior to the Europeans, the Arabs had been raiding and buying slaves from East African black communities for centuries, from Somalia to Zanzibar.
Isaac May 22, 2022 at 21:56 #699311
Reply to Olivier5

Yes, but The history of slavery spans many cultures, nationalities, and religions from ancient times to the present day. Likewise, its victims have come from many different ethnicities and religious groups.

Slavery was relatively rare in pre-civilisation hunter-gatherer populations,[2] as it develops under conditions of social stratification.[3] Slavery operated in the first civilizations (such as Sumer in Mesopotamia,[4] which dates back as far as 3500 BCE).

So you see, Both Christians and Muslims captured and enslaved each other during centuries of warfare in the Mediterranean.[6] Islamic slavery encompassed mainly Western and Central Asia, Northern and Eastern Africa, India, and Europe from the 7th to the 20th century.

I think the important point is that European merchants initiated the transatlantic slave trade, purchasing enslaved Africans from West African kingdoms and transporting them to Europe's colonies in the Americas. The transatlantic slave trade was eventually curtailed due to European and American governments passing legislation abolishing their nation's involvement in it.

Isaac May 22, 2022 at 22:04 #699314
This is actually way easier than actually trying to advance or defend some actual position. I can definitely see the attraction.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 06:16 #699515
Reply to Isaac The point was that some Africans disagree that the West is bad, so much so that they risk their lives to emigrate to Europe. And it's not (factually not) because Europe ruined their country, as implied by Apo. It is because they perceived Europe as a haven of peace and prosperity, where one can hope to improve one's lot. Hope is what draws them.

This in response to the following exchange:

Quoting Apollodorus
There is a reason why Ukrainians don't want to live under Putin's boot.
— Olivier5

Most of the world don't want to live under America's boot, either.


Well, it turns out that in actual fact many folks do want to live in America (or Europe) very very badly. People vote with their feet.
Benkei May 23, 2022 at 06:17 #699516
Reply to unenlightened That's definitely a different tune and damning if true. We're left with no ability to tell what is true and I'm wondering what we've been doing for 250+ pages.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 06:32 #699521
Quoting Benkei
I'm wondering what we've been doing for 250+ pages.


Discussing the war in Ukraine, for some. Braying "NATO caca", for others.

Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 06:42 #699522
Reply to Benkei Key words: "if true".
Benkei May 23, 2022 at 06:44 #699523
Reply to Olivier5 The whole point is that neither you nor I have the information necessary to tell the difference. So your childish misrepresentation of people's differing viewpoints, people who spend time and effort to explain a different viewpoint, is just the usual disrespect.
Isaac May 23, 2022 at 06:45 #699525
Quoting Olivier5
it's not (factually not) because Europe ruined their country, as implied by Apo. It is because they perceived Europe as a haven of peace and prosperity, where one can hope to improve one's lot.


I thought there might be a lower limit to how far you'd be prepared to sink in your Western apologetics, but "the slave trade wasn't that bad" is a new low, even for you. Disgusting.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 06:50 #699527
Reply to Isaac Good that I never said it, then.

Note that in a context full of liars, stating historical or other facts --even straight from Wikipedia -- can be revolutionary, because it helps fend off the lies and re-establish a mentally sane, factually based environment for discussion.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 06:51 #699528
Quoting Benkei
The whole point is that neither you nor I have the information necessary to tell the difference.


Most of times, I have the information necessary to tell the difference, thank you. I agree that you don't.
Isaac May 23, 2022 at 07:10 #699531
Quoting Olivier5
stating historical or other facts --even straight from Wikipedia -- can be revolutionary


Oh good.

as Europe was being developed, Africa was being underdeveloped via resource extraction. His conclusion is that the structure of present-day Africa and Europe can through a comparative analysis be traced to the Atlantic slave trade and colonialism

The natives, who were portrayed as uncivilised by the Europeans, were excluded from the rights of citizenship.

colonial powers demanded use of African bodies in particularly violent ways for the purpose of labor as well as the shaping of subservient colonised identities.

violence in the colony was exerted on African bodies largely for the purpose of labor and submission.[24] European colonial powers sought natural resources in African colonies and needed the requisite labor force to extract them and simultaneously build the colonial city around these industries.
Because Europeans viewed native bodies as degenerate and in need of taming, violence was necessary to create a submissive laborer.

Colonisers viewed this violence as necessary and good because it shaped the African into a productive worker.

The African’s day-to-day life then became a show of submission done through exercises like public works projects and military conscription.

Critical theory on the colonisation of Africa is largely unified in a condemnation of imperial activities.


But do remind us again how 'factually' Europe did not actually ruin Africa, but the Africans did it to themselves.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 07:22 #699542
Reply to Isaac Europe did ruin Africa, but to say that the Africans today who want to emigrate to Europe do so because of that is incorrect.
Isaac May 23, 2022 at 07:24 #699543
Quoting Olivier5
Europe did ruin Africa, but to say that the Africans today who want to emigrate to Europe do so because of that is incorrect.


No one is in any doubt about your apologism, so repeating it doesn't get us anywhere. I was just being 'revolutionary' in showing it to be the bullshit it is.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 07:26 #699544
Reply to Isaac Thanks for the laugh.
Isaac May 23, 2022 at 07:29 #699546
Reply to Olivier5

It's not funny. You've just publicly claimed that the reasons Africans migrate to Europe, the reasons Africa is a worse place to live than Europe, are not the fault of Europe. You've just attempted to absolve Europe of hundreds of years of oppression, slavery, and racism. I don't find such claims funny, I find them disgusting.
Benkei May 23, 2022 at 07:42 #699550
Reply to Olivier5 If only you were capable of proving it but you haven't. All you have is disdain for someone who disagrees with you and confuse your feelings on the matter with actually knowing what you're talking about.
ssu May 23, 2022 at 07:52 #699552
Quoting Isaac
Yes, but the Warsaw Pact (WP),[5] was a collective defense treaty signed in Warsaw, Poland, between the Soviet Union and seven other Eastern Bloc socialist republics of Central and Eastern Europe in May 1955.

Which as it's only military operation occupied one of it's own members.

And that just tells where the real threat was: the main aim wasn't only NATO, but also in crushing revolts that sporadically happened in Eastern European countries (East Germany, Hungary and Czechoslovakia).

And actually it's no wonder that the largest ever Warsaw Pact exercise was held in 1981 and it had an amphibious assault made next to Gdansk, the birthplace of free Polish trade union Solidarno??. The Polish Solidarity Movement was one of the first cracks of the freedom movements against the Soviet empire behind the Iron Curtain. Polish officials did get the message and hence martial law was imposed in Poland few months after the Zapad 81 exercise.

Hence sticking to the official lithurgy is one thing, but totally forgetting that the Warsaw Pact was a tool to control Eastern Europe itself for the Soviet Union is simply wrong. The fact that Yugoslavia (or Albania) weren't part of the Warsaw Pact should tell this obvious fact.
Streetlight May 23, 2022 at 07:54 #699553
Someone once remarked that if aliens ever invaded Earth, the best thing to do would be to hand them a copy of Walter Rodney's How Europe Underdeveloped Africa. They would likely find it so abhorrent that they would leave immediately.

Also this NYT post on Haiti has been doing the rounds recently. There's some controversy because of its bad citational practice, but it makes a good case for burning all of France to the ground, along with everyone in it.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 07:57 #699555
Quoting Benkei
If only you were capable of proving it but you haven't. All you have is disdain for someone who disagrees with you and confuse your feelings on the matter with actually knowing what you're talking about.


If you don't know enough to be able yo tell what is true and not, how come you know enough to tell that the same applies to me, or to any others? How do you know that my level of information, or that of any other poster here, is the same as yours, i.e. by your own account next to nil?

You are arguing from a position of ignorance. Now, it's fine for the ignorant to say: "I am ignorant". But what ground does the ignorant have to deny others any possibility of knowledge?
Isaac May 23, 2022 at 07:59 #699557
Quoting ssu
Which as it's only military operation occupied one of it's own members.

And that just tells where the real threat was: the main aim wasn't NATO, but also in crushing revolts that sporadically happened in Eastern European countries


Yes, but The USSR, fearing the restoration of German militarism in West Germany, had suggested in 1954 that it join NATO, but this was rejected by the US and UK.[25][26][27]

The Soviet request to join NATO arose in the aftermath of the Berlin Conference of January–February 1954. Soviet foreign minister Molotov made proposals to have Germany reunified[28] and elections for a pan-German government,[29] under conditions of withdrawal of the four powers' armies and German neutrality,[30] but all were refused by the other foreign ministers, Dulles (USA), Eden (UK), and Bidault (France).[31]

The thing is that Molotov, fearing that the EDC would be directed in the future against the USSR and "seeking to prevent the formation of groups of European States directed against the other European States",[36] made a proposal for a General European Treaty on Collective Security in Europe "open to all European States without regard to their social systems"[36] which would have included the unified Germany (thus rendering the EDC obsolete). But Eden, Dulles, and Bidault opposed the proposal.[37]

And don't forget Albania officially left the organization in 1968, in protest of its invasion of Czechoslovakia. Romania had its own reasons for remaining a formal member of the Warsaw Pact, such as Nicolae Ceau?escu's interest of preserving the threat of a Pact invasion so he could sell himself as a nationalist as well as privileged access to NATO counterparts and a seat at various European forums which otherwise he wouldn't have had (for instance, Romania and the Soviet-led remainder of the Warsaw Pact formed two distinct groups in the elaboration of the Helsinki Final Act.[81]).
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 07:59 #699558
Reply to Isaac It's not funny, but YOU are funny though.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 08:01 #699559
Quoting Streetlight
it makes a good case for burning all of France to the ground.


You are a colon, living on a land stolen from Aborigens. Why don't you burn your own house to the ground?
creativesoul May 23, 2022 at 08:03 #699560
Quoting baker
Why is it so hard to consider the possibility that it might actually be good for a country to ask Russia to take it under its wing? Or at least to see it as a matter of their own interest to be on friendly terms with Russia?


Wondering if you still think this way???
Benkei May 23, 2022 at 08:25 #699568
Reply to Olivier5 Because if you had proof of your position I would be convinced. As simple as that.
Olivier5 May 23, 2022 at 08:37 #699574
Reply to Benkei A 'proof' is hard to find. I can provide evidence though. So what position of mine do you want evidence for?
neomac May 23, 2022 at 08:45 #699578
Quoting Apollodorus
The official number of Crimean Tatars in Turkey is 150,000 with some Crimean Tatar activists estimating a figure as high as 6 million. - Crimean Tatars, Wikipedia
So, you seem to be not only ignorant but also confused.


About what exactly am I ignorant and confused?! And how on earth is your report pertinent wrt what I’m questioning?! I was questioning your theory of “rightful owners” and the issue is this: if the rightful owners of Crimea are the Crimean Tatars more than the Russians, then - according to your theory - they are the people that could legitimise annexation or independence of Crimea, so even if they wanted Crimea to be part of Turkey, that should be fine with you!

You keep regurgitating at length and needlessly all sorts of trivia in your posts, while using links that I myself already provided and took into account in my comments (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean–Nogai_slave_raids_in_Eastern_Europe , https://iccrimea.org/reports/genographic-results.html) YET WITHOUT FALSIFYING ANYTHING I SAID ABOUT THE CRIMEAN TATARS!
Moreover, I cited academic papers and books dedicated specifically to the Crimean Tatars history and ethnogenesis to support my claims about the Crimean Tatars, and yet you simply ignore them and come up with your pointless speculations about them as if you could claim to know more about the Crimean Tatars than those studies I cited. Are you crazy?!


Quoting Apollodorus
1. Given that Turkic tribes (a) were non-local invaders and (b) were involved in the enslavement and exploitation of earlier local populations, it cannot be claimed that they are “rightful owners” of Crimea.


So what?! CRIMEAN TATARS ARE INDIGENOUS PEOPLE OF CRIMEA on ethnohistorical grounds and they can not be conflated with the historical Crimean Nogai Tatars! What we refer to as "Crimean Tatars" today is the result of 2500 years of demographic stratification which in part - especially a subgroup of Crimean Tatars in the north of Crimea - may be related to the historical Crimean Nogai Tatars. Moreover there are Turkic people who settled in Crimea prior to the Crimean Nogai Tatars! Finally, you keep suggesting an assimilation between Mongols and Tatars by conflating linguistic-cultural factors with genetics, and conveniently overlooking the studies I cited that question this assimilation!
So for all your misconceptions, you call the Crimean Tatars of today the “Mongols of Crimea”?! And then you call me ignorant and confused?! Are you crazy?!



Quoting Apollodorus
2. Given that several non-Turkic ethnic groups existed in Crimea (Tauri, Scythians, Greeks, Goths, etc.) prior to the arrival of the Tatars, it cannot be claimed that the Tatars were “the majority”. On the contrary, if we consider that even ordinary Tatars had several domestic, agricultural, and sex slaves, we can see that the non-Tatar population must have been significant. Indeed, about 75% of Crimea’s population under the Khanate (or Tatar State) itself were non-Tatar slaves and freedmen, i.e., mostly Slavs from Russia, Ukraine, and Poland, and Caucasians from places like Georgia and Circassia.


It doesn’t matter who constituted the majority in those times: the point is that, after the Tatar-Mongol reign, the Crimean Tatars as indigenous people of Crimea became the majority by assimilating other ethnic groups (see this historical demographic map https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Ethnic_Population_of_Crimea_18th%E2%80%9321st_century.png) and today Crimean Tatars may count among their ancestors european slaves (which thing should also justify their rightful ownership to Crimea according to your theory, right?), post-Mongolian invasions Anatolian people, pre-Mongolian invasion Turkic people, and more!


Quoting Apollodorus
3.2. By 1897, Tatars were only 35% of Crimea’s population.


So what?! It’s the period where the russification of Crimea was increasing, and prior to that period Russians also massively deported Greek-speaking Crimean Greeks outside Crimea!


Quoting Apollodorus
3.4. When Stalin in 1944 resettled Crimean Tatars to Turkic areas within the Soviet Union (e.g., Uzbekistan), the Tatars were already a small minority


So what?! I already talked about it: the deportation of the Crimean Tatars is part of Russian imperialism and colonialism in Crimea, which you should oppose!

Quoting Apollodorus
3.5. Tatars currently amount to about 10% of Crimea’s total population.


As a result of Russian imperialism and colonialism, that you should oppose!

Quoting Apollodorus
4. Given that the Crimean Tatars were involved in the capture, enslavement, and sale into slavery of millions of Slavs whose total number exceeded that of the Tatars, it cannot be claimed that the Slav population owes anything to Tatars in relation to the latter’s subsequent “expulsion” from Crimea.


The Crimean Tatars of today’s Crimea CAN NOT be collectively considered the descendants of the Crimean-Nogai Tatar rulers (but surely there may be genetic traces of those rulers in some of today's Crimean Tatars), and the Slavic people victims of the Crimean-Nogai Tatars’ raids were not only the Russian ancestors but also and probably primarily the Ukrainian ancestors, yet Ukraine acknowledges Crimean Tatars as indigenous people of Crimea (https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/ukraine-adopts-law-recognizing-crimean-tatars-as-indigenous-peoples) on political grounds too, while Russians forcefully russified, annexed Crimea and oppress the Crimean Tatars as imperialists do!

Quoting Apollodorus
5. On the principle that “every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners”, if anyone has a legitimate claim to being “rightful owners” of Crimea, it is the Tauri (Taurians) and their descendants. But the Greeks also have a claim to parts of Crimea as they built cities, established international trade, and brought prosperity and civilization. They also civilized the Russians who in turn liberated Crimea from the Turkic invaders.


So, is the Tauri community the “rightful owner” of the entire Crimea or only of the part of Crimea they have colonised? In any case, the Tauri community in part was assimilated to the Crimean Tatars, in part got DEPORTED BY THE RUSSIANS into other areas of Ukraine like Donetsk (does Donetsk belong to Greece now according to your theory?!)! And again, if you want to defend the Crimean Greeks self-determination in Crimea go for it. The Russians didn’t "liberate" Crimea for the Greeks as the rightful owners of Crimea because they russified Crimea instead of bringing back the Crimea Greeks, or the Ukrainian Greeks, or the Greeks there ! And now you are ridiculously stretching your ethnic based (and possibly racist) theory of the rightful owners to include the Greek cultural heritage and so legitimise your pro-Russian narrative?!


Quoting Apollodorus
Now, if someone is of “Northern Asian, Northern European, Mediterranean, and Middle Eastern” descent, then by definition, that person isn’t an indigenous Crimean!


“Indigenous” means that what we call today “Crimean Tatars” is a population formed as a melting pot of different ethnicity in the Crimean peninsula across more than 2 millennia. Period.
Also the Russians formed through the historical fusion of some Slavic and Finnic tribes, neither of which were indigenous to the geographic area corresponding to today’s Russia.


Quoting Apollodorus
If he is 42% European and only 28% Tatar then why does he call himself “Tatar” and not “European”?


Or, even better, Mongol of Crimea?!

To say the least, "Crimean Tatars" speak a “Crimean Tatar language” as their native language:
The Crimean Tatar language (q?r?mtatar tili, ??????????? ????, tatar t?l?, tatar?a, k?r?m tatar?a), also called Crimean language (q?r?m tili, ?????? ????), is a Kipchak Turkic language spoken in Crimea and the Crimean Tatar diasporas of Uzbekistan, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, as well as small communities in the United States and Canada. It should not be confused with Tatar proper, spoken in Tatarstan and adjacent regions in Russia; the languages are related, but belong to two different subgroups of the Kipchak languages and thus are not mutually intelligible. It has been extensively influenced by nearby Oghuz dialects.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatar_language

But for sure that’s not enough to call them “the Mongols of Crimea” as you did!


Quoting Apollodorus
In the meantime, I think the apparently arbitrary self-designation “Crimean Tatar” is highly problematic and lends itself to manipulation for political and/or commercial purposes.


For sure, this is how the Russian trolls are motivated to see this issue right?!
Anyway, given your confusion between genetic and cultural-linguistic features (Tatar -Mongol link misconceptions) and your obscure pseudo-historical theory of justice (why is Crimea a compensation for the injustice suffered by the Russians but not by the Ukrainians from the Crimean Nogai Tatars?! Why must the Crimean Tatars of today which may be only in part related to the Crimean Nogai Tatars suffer the Russification and annexation of Crimea by the Russians for what Slavic people - including non-Russians - have suffered from the Crimean Nogai Tatars centuries ago? What territorial compensation do Iranian and Azerbaijan deserve for the historical oppression they have suffered from Russians’ ancestors?! What territorial compensation do Ukrainians deserve for the historical oppression they have suffered from the the Russian Empire, the Soviets and today’s Russians?! How can the Russians be considered as “liberators” of Crimea just because they have been civilised by the Greeks who you claim to be the rightful owners of Crimea?! How can the Indo-European pre-history possibly help you decide who belongs Crimea to, given that all Westerners can claim to be Indo-European and have inherited the Greek cultural heritage according to your theory?! BTW how can one even ground a sedentary notion of land ownership based on prehistoric nomadic hunter-gatherer people?!), your theory of the “right owners” looks not only preposterous but conveniently advertised as long as it supports your pro-Russian propaganda.

Dude, it's pointless to waste your time desperately trying to justify your claim that Crimean Tatars are the Mongols of Crimea by reiterating ad nauseam your misconceptions and misreading of Wikipedia. So suck it up and move on. But if you still feel like arguing about this, then make sure you have pertinent rebuttals to my actual objections, especially based on a more consistent or intelligible theory of the “rightful owners” to prove - at the very least - that you are not ridiculously biased toward the Russians in the case of Crimea.

















Isaac May 23, 2022 at 08:47 #699581
Quoting Olivier5
A 'proof' is hard to find. I can provide evidence though. So what position of mine do you want evidence for?


Right. Look at the article in question. https://labourheartlands.com/jacques-baud-the-military-situation-in-the-ukraine-update/#The_Military_Situation_in_the_Ukraine-An_Update

Do you see a lack of evidence? It's littered with evidence. Every single blue highlight is a piece of evidence. Not to mention the author's credentials themselves as an expert.

So evidence is not the differentiating factor here. You need to show why your evidence shows your position to be true and the opposing evidence is insufficient to do the same for their position.

Simply saying "my position has evidence" is facile. Both positions have evidence. The mere presence of evidence is irrelevant to the truth or not of either.
ssu May 23, 2022 at 10:38 #699627
Quoting Isaac
Yes, but The USSR, fearing the restoration of German militarism in West Germany, had suggested in 1954 that it join NATO, but this was rejected by the US and UK.

You really think that the Soviet Union would have altered it's policies toward the Eastern European countries it held under it's control? Nonsense. It just wanted to water down the organization, make it into an UN type organization where it would have a veto-vote.

Because it's a bit hard to think that a basically Stalinist Soviet Union would apply things like Article 2:

Article 2
The Parties will contribute toward the further development of peaceful and friendly international relations by strengthening their free institutions, by bringing about a better understanding of the principles upon which these institutions are founded, and by promoting conditions of stability and well-being. They will seek to eliminate conflict in their international economic policies and will encourage economic collaboration between any or all of them.


Russia joining NATO in the 1990's was a far more possible outcome and then it could have worked, but as I've said, you would had to have larger than life politician both in the US and in Russia back then. There was a window of opportunity for this. But then Russia ought to have understood that the Russian/Soviet Empire was over and it would be somewhat larger, but comparable, Great Power as France or the UK. As the Soviet Union had just collapsed in one night or so, there wasn't this feeling that everything had changed. And Putin's goal has been to "make Russia great again" by using violence.

The fact is that the KGB should have truly been disbanded, not just broken up into successor agencies and former KGB agents should not have been given the keys to the Kremlin. Then true change could have happened in Russia. Unfortunately, it didn't happen and here we are.

And for the US and the West, they should have understood that Russia will continue to play a role in the World. Which they didn't.



Streetlight May 23, 2022 at 10:58 #699635
Quoting ssu
OK! So she mentioned that. So I stand corrected, enough to be corrected earlier in the article that I didn't notice it. Yet the issue is that now in every age group and income group, there is a majority for NATO membership. Which was left out. (So at least I have better in Finnish literacy than you are, Aussie.)


Your illiteracy knows no bounds, not in any language.

[quote=The Article]In this media environment, it is perhaps unsurprising that support for NATO membership is high: about 60% in Sweden and 75% in Finland.

...On 23 March, 44% of young people surveyed were for NATO and 21% against. Last week, 43% of them were for NATO and 32% against: a double-digit leap. Support for membership rises with each age bracket, with the elderly most staunchly in favour.[/quote]
Isaac May 23, 2022 at 12:10 #699690
Quoting ssu
Russia joining NATO in the 1990's was a far more possible outcome and then it could have worked


Yeah but The Russia–NATO Council was established in 2002 for handling security issues and joint projects.

The idea of Russia becoming a NATO member has at different times been floated by both Western and Russian leaders, as well as some experts. No serious discussions were ever held.[155]

The thing is that, In 1991, as the Soviet Union was dissolved, Russian president Boris Yeltsin sent a letter to NATO, suggesting that Russia's long-term aim was to join NATO.[159]

What we mustn't forget is that According to Rasmussen, in the early days of Putin's presidency around 2000–2001, Putin made many statements that suggested he was favorable to the idea of Russia joining NATO.[158]

And... In early 2010, the suggestion was repeated in an open letter co-written by German defense experts. They posited that Russia was needed in the wake of an emerging multi-polar world in order for NATO to counterbalance emerging Asian powers.[160]

On Nov. 4, 2021 George Robertson, a former UK Labour defence secretary who led NATO between 1999 and 2003, told The Guardian that Putin made it clear at their first meeting that he wanted Russia to be part of western Europe. “Putin said: ‘When are you going to invite us to join Nato?’.

So, in conclusion Russian gas exports came to be viewed as a weapon against NATO countries,[183] and the US and other Western countries have worked to lessen the dependency of Europe on Russia and its resources.[184]
ssu May 23, 2022 at 15:04 #699746
Quoting Isaac
Yeah but The Russia–NATO Council was established in 2002 for handling security issues and joint projects.

Yes, the 1990's and basically early 2000's were the time that something really radical could have been done in Russia-US relations. As I've said earlier in this thread, people thought this could be a real possibility. A German military attache to Finland said to me with a straight face that Russia could possibly join NATO. That was then.

But perhaps think about this way. Assume that both US and Putin's Russia would have found each other and faced the War on Terror together as allies. The real question would be then, would Russia have become more like a Western democracy or would the US become like Russia. Putin had his corrupt ties already from St Petersburg and came like a "Mr Fixit" for Yeltsin and Yeltsin didn't face any charges for his corruption. He started the ruthless and violent war against the Chechens with similar results as we see from Ukraine now. For the neocons like Rumsfeld and Cheney, Russia could be the perfect ally: capable of operating in other continents, wouldn't flinch about casualties, and would have no problems of fighting dirty. Russia isn't an ordinary European state. But Russia chose China and basically chose with Putin to be a great Power on it's own with the objective to regain what it had lost.
neomac May 23, 2022 at 16:13 #699763
[I]A veteran Russian diplomat has resigned over what he called the "disaster" of his nation's invasion of Ukraine.
Boris Bondarev, 41, said he had "never been so ashamed of my country" and the "aggressive war" waged by President Vladimir Putin's forces. [...]
"Today, the ministry of foreign affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred."[/I]
https://news.sky.com/story/russian-diplomat-boris-bondarev-resigns-over-ukraine-war-saying-he-has-never-been-so-ashamed-of-my-country-12619768
Isaac May 23, 2022 at 17:51 #699809
Reply to ssu

You do realise I've just been randomly cutting and pasting sections from the relevant Wikipedia articles? I'm not even paying any attention to what's in them.

The first lot are from
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Pact
And the second from https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93NATO_relations


It was supposed to be a joke I wasn't expecting it to actually work. Did the citation numbers left in the text not look a little suspicious?

What does it say about that style of discussion that one side can be entirely replaced by completely random sections of Wikipedia?
180 Proof May 23, 2022 at 18:24 #699831
A in/famous Slovenian philosopher weighs in –
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/23/we-must-stop-letting-russia-define-the-terms-of-the-ukraine-crisis
ssu May 23, 2022 at 18:33 #699839
Quoting Isaac
You do realise I've just been randomly cutting and pasting sections from the relevant Wikipedia articles?

I have. The numbers [15] tell it instantly. Although the topic doesn't make it random.

I've just assumed that you don't have anything else to say.

And likely you have no attention what I reply. But perhaps someone else does read them.

Because thinking that NATO and Warsaw Pact were the same and had similar objectives in nonsense.
ssu May 23, 2022 at 20:50 #699883
Russia's response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO clearly shows that actually NATO enlargement was more of an excuse than the real reason for invading Ukraine.

First there's Putin's response at the CSTO meeting tells it all:



As for the expansion [of NATO], including through new members of the alliance — Finland, Sweden — Russia wants to inform you that it has no problems with these states,” Putin said on Monday, speaking at a gathering in Moscow of leaders from the member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-backed military alliance. “Therefore, in this sense, expansion on account of these countries does not pose a direct threat to Russia.”

"The expansion of military infrastructure on this territory will undoubtedly cause us to respond,” Putin told the leaders of the five former Soviet republics, adding that NATO’s “endless expansionary policy” also “required additional attention on our part.


In a telephone conversation with the Finnish President, Putin acknowledged what had happened and just remarked that it was a mistake from Finland to join NATO. But no threats were made. Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that "Finland's and Sweden's accession into Nato will most likely make not much difference".

Sweden has already stated that it doesn't want foreign bases or nuclear weapons on it's soil, and neither Finland has any appetite for them also. And actually NATO has no desire to do this (see here) The real deal is the membership part. As both countries do have satisfactory defence forces, there is no need for new bases.

And as now the US, the UK, Italy and even Poland has given security guarantees for the two countries during the time when the application forms are in (and the haggling continues with Turkey), the two EU countries can be quite calm. The only response to Finland has been the gas exports from Russia have stopped (because the Finnish side won't go into paying with rubles). But this has been anticipated for months. What also was lacking was the information (war) effort made towards Finland as done in 2014. Even the Russian ambassador stayed in Helsinki and no formal complaint was given to Finland. And when Russia doesn't have a war to be fought, it will likely improve it's armed forces facing Finland. But that will take time... and is totally acceptable: Russians can do whatever they want in their own territory.

The contrast is striking when compared to the Russian behavior towards Ukraine. The response to Finland and Sweden is (at least for now) is in my view totally normal. Which makes such a striking difference to the "denazification" and "disarmament" of Ukraine. If hypothetical NATO membership was a reason for all out war, but actual membership by other countries doesn't mean much, it simply doesn't add up.

All this just makes it more clear that Russia was more interested in subjugating and annexing more land from Ukraine than in "countering the NATO threat". This should be obvious to everyone at least now.
ssu May 23, 2022 at 20:59 #699886
Reply to neomac Bondarev's public statement is a clear sign that all isn't well in Russia. As actually is quite clear to see.
Christoffer May 23, 2022 at 22:40 #699913
Quoting ssu
Russia's response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO clearly shows that actually NATO enlargement was more of an excuse than the real reason for invading Ukraine.


Precisely, as well as supporting what I've been saying all along, that the only "threat" that Nato pose to Russia is when it tries to grab nations within the geographical interest of Putin. If he and his minions want to rebuild some grand Russian empire, then they can invade and try... as long as that nation isn't a member of Nato. So the only connection there is that Nato threatens the expansion of Russia. Sweden and Finland have never really been part of this "dream". However, the strategic position of Gotland and Sweden being part of Nato is very important as it would close off how submarines can move through Öresund to get to the Atlantic ocean. So there's an interest there.

But I think the downplaying is part of some sort of internal collapse around Putin. It might be that their threats reached a point where they realized that they played the game a little too dangerously.

Quoting ssu
Sweden has already stated that it doesn't want foreign bases or nuclear weapons on it's soil, and neither Finland has any appetite for them also. And actually NATO has no desire to do this


Yes, the key interest for Nato is the Baltic sea, and Sweden and Finland defending these waters. If there were ever a situation of a third world war that didn't kick off with total nuclear annihilation, then the Baltic sea would be a place of massive sea and aerial battles.

Quoting ssu
All this just makes it more clear that Russia was more interested in subjugating and annexing more land from Ukraine than in "countering the NATO threat". This should be obvious to everyone at least now.


The setbacks of their attempts at Kyiv, as well as their attempts at the assassination of Zelenskyy, seem too much to be just a distraction. As well as replacing key military officials and other internal problems in Russia. I think Putin generally thought of taking control of the entire nation or at least splitting it in half, gaining Kyiv. With the losses they had in the first part of the war, this second one sees the Russian army fighting on their knees. If they had focused on a smaller distraction and put a larger focus on the eastern border from the beginning, then it would be totally different. The key right now seems to be creating a corridor down to Crimea, as well as blocking Ukraine's ability to export through the Black Sea.
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 06:59 #700060
Reply to 180 Proof Excellent piece. I liked his proposals, like this one:

Medvedev predicts that, because of the war in Ukraine, “in some states, hunger may occur due to the food crisis” – a statement of breathtaking cynicism. As of May 2022, about 25m metric tons of grain are slowly rotting in Odesa, on ships or in silos, since the port is blocked by the Russian navy. “The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that millions of people are ‘marching towards starvation’ unless ports in southern Ukraine which have been closed because of the war, are reopened,” Newsweek reports. Europe now promises to help Ukraine transport the grain by railway and truck – but this is clearly not enough. A step more is needed: a clear demand to open the port for the export of grain, inclusive of sending protective military ships there. It’s not about Ukraine, it’s about the hunger of hundreds of millions in Africa and Asia. Here should the red line be drawn.

Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 08:10 #700074
Reply to Olivier5 Why is this type of behavior by Russians so common? Why is the brutality systemic? We can criticize other nations for brutality and war crimes, but it generally happens as isolated cases, mostly under one asshole doing it. But in this, there are so many Russians showing total moral bankruptcy, a systematic level of the behavior. If it's ingrained in Russian traditional culture, conservative values of "masculine power", national heroes, to achieve greatness, then they truly are living in the past as I've been saying. No wonder they want to expand the empire, create a new world order and create a massive Russia with a proud people under a strong man. It almost reminds me of...
Streetlight May 24, 2022 at 08:57 #700083
Some little side benefits of expanding NATO:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2022/05/23/expanded-nato-will-shoot-billions-to-us-defense-contractors/?sh=63252d933189

Treaty obligations will a mean significant increase in defense spending. Finland has already ordered 64 new F-35 warplanes, the elite joint strike fighter developed by Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems (BAESY). The JSFs cost between $110 million and $135.8 million. More importantly, aligning with NATO is a commitment to interoperability with the American defense ecosystem. This directly benefits the big U.S. contractors. The market for their goods is expanding and they will face no competition for the foreseeable future.

American defense contractors are reliable technology partners. The companies are also backed-up by the largess of the U.S defense budget, a record $810 billion in 2021. There is no appetite politically to decrease military spending. And that sentiment is spreading globally, thanks to the carnage in Ukraine. Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are currently the best way to play this bigger trend. At share prices of $90, $424, and $443, the stocks trade at 15.5x, 14.9x, and 16.3x forward earnings respectively.


--

But surely it must be because the pathetic Russian army which can barely face up to a bunch of weaponized tractors poses a threat to the rest of Europe.
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 11:59 #700103
Quoting Christoffer
Why is this type of behavior by Russians so common? Why is the brutality systemic?


Nothing to do with Russians being Russians IMO. It has to do with materialism.

If you think that humans are just meat machines, that human rights are a fiction, that might makes right, then you will find that brutality is the best way to rule those meat machines.
Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 12:15 #700108
Quoting Olivier5
Nothing to do with Russians being Russians IMO. It has to do with materialism.

If you think that humans are just meat machines, that human rights are a fiction, that might makes right, then you will find that brutality is the best way to rule those meat machines.


Of course not because they are Russians, but the behavior is systemic in their politics, which leads to their war behavior accordingly. So it's ingrained in Russian traditional culture, it's part of their type of hero culture, their type of masculinity norms, and fascist power hierarchies. This is the biggest problem with Russia, the foundational destructive form of their traditional identity. An immature philosophy that doesn't care for human lives. Can we conclude that the basic respect for human life and rights is part of a modern philosophy that's considered up to date? I have a hard time arguing for a moral philosophy that goes below that level and I can't help to position it as being an inferior moral philosophy that most of us moved away from long ago. You either put human lives and rights at the top or you put something else at the top under which human lives and rights are inferior, the latter won't judge murdering thousands to reach the peak of humanity and has been the root cause for many religions murdering thousands for a fabricated ideal held above human lives and rights. Can we then conclude this Russian perspective to be morally corrupt at its core? Just like we position capitalism as morally corrupt since it puts capitalist ideals before human well-being.

Isaac May 24, 2022 at 12:34 #700114
Quoting ssu
perhaps someone else does read them.

Because thinking that NATO and Warsaw Pact were the same and had similar objectives in nonsense.


And to whose thinking would that be relevant? Since the quote you responded to was...

Quoting ssu
With Russia, it's all about control and influence.
— ssu

Well, how is it different with America? — Apollodorus



To which my parody of your response was entirely apt. The question was about the broad matter of control and influence. Rather than just saying "Yes, they're roughly similar there" like any normal person not trying to get a job at the White House PR office, you scattergun the thread with a load of pointlessly specific historical details unrelated to the actual question, just to try and deflect attention from the political point.

Your singling out of Russian foreign policy as being "all about control and influence" was simply wrong. It's no more so than most other powerful countries. The difference between NATO and the Warsaw Pact has nothing to do with it. It's no secret that the US uses different tactics to achieve it's 'control and influence', no-one needs six pages of Wikipedia summaries to tell them that.

Isaac May 24, 2022 at 12:50 #700118
Quoting Christoffer
Of course not because they are Russians...


No. Of course it's not because they're Russian. It's just that...

Quoting Christoffer
the behavior is systemic in their politics, which leads to their war behavior accordingly. So it's ingrained in Russian traditional culture, it's part of their type of hero culture, their type of masculinity norms, and fascist power hierarchies.


...which we can all see is totally different from saying that it's because they're Russian. It's just their entire culture, mythology, political system, norms and personality types...

I mean, alternatively, we're hearing the war-fogged actions of a very small minority of Russians heavily mixed up with the actions of the know Neo-Nazi mercenaries fighting for Russia, exaggerated to maximum impact by a country desperate for weapons, knowing their survival relies on a wholly negative image of Russia...

But that would be crazy, far more likely that the entire culture of a nation has become systemically psychopathic.



Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 12:52 #700121
Quoting Isaac
exaggerated to maximum impact by a country desperate for weapons


The number of mass graves and war crimes still being uncovered speaks against exaggeration and against it being a minority group as these sites are located spread out over Ukraine.
Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 13:10 #700131
Quoting Streetlight
Between the racists, the people who cannot read, and the people who play Nazi-PR, the US-hegemony cheerleader squad had assembled quite the front.


You're still rambling and refuse to be specific with your remarks on what I wrote. Get off your high horse little bully.
Isaac May 24, 2022 at 13:14 #700133
Quoting Christoffer
The number of mass graves and war crimes still being uncovered speaks against exaggeration


Well, no. Seeing as they're being uncovered by the very parties in whose interest it is to exaggerate to maximum effect, as I said. If you're under the illusion that Ukraine (and US/European allied foreign observers, now) wouldn't have a vested interest in maximising the impact of every find then you're not only more naive than I thought, but you've clearly no real sense of the peril Ukrainians feel. Anyone in their position would demonise their enemy to the greatest extent possible. It's happened in basically every single war ever. I know you lot like to heroise, but suggesting that Ukraine remain calm and dispassionate in their interpretation of war crime evidence is utterly absurd. They will, and understandingly so, do their best to provide the worst possible interpretation.

What is far less forgivable is people sitting in their armchairs hundreds of miles away using such propaganda to make racist assumptions about an entire nation, the vast majority of whom are not even in Ukraine.
Isaac May 24, 2022 at 13:16 #700134
Quoting Christoffer
I'm speaking about the behavior of their politics influencing...


Re-writing really needs at least a few pages to go by...

Quoting Isaac
the behavior is systemic in their politics, which leads to their war behavior accordingly. So it's ingrained in Russian traditional culture, it's part of their type of hero culture, their type of masculinity norms, and fascist power hierarchies. — Christoffer


Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 13:17 #700135
Quoting Isaac
Well, no. Seeing as they're being uncovered by the very parties in whose interest it is to exaggerate to maximum effec


Do you mean UN and ICJ investigators? Isn't it easy to just dismiss everyone involved as having some ulterior motive and interest? Or maybe you're just wrong and the findings in Ukraine by these independent investigators paint a far worse picture than you want to accept.
Isaac May 24, 2022 at 13:20 #700136
Quoting Christoffer
maybe you're just wrong and the findings in Ukraine by these independent investigators paint a far worse picture than you want to accept.


Yes, maybe I am. Maybe I'm not. That's the whole point I've been trying to get across in practically every comment I've made on this thread. We don't have enough information to be compelled to accept one narrative over another. The evidence is just not anywhere near overwhelming.

So the question becomes why do we choose one narrative over the other.
Isaac May 24, 2022 at 13:23 #700138
Quoting Streetlight
Yeah Christoffer isn't a racist, he is just indistinguishable from one.


Scarily similar to some of the early anti-Semitism in 30s Europe though, much of the writing at the time talked about the culture of Jewry rather than the actual genetic Jew. Didn't take long to mutate into pure racism.
Streetlight May 24, 2022 at 13:25 #700139
Reply to Isaac

Why is this type of behavior by [Jews] so common? Why is the brutality systemic? We can criticize other nations for brutality and war crimes, but it generally happens as isolated cases, mostly under one asshole doing it. But in this, there are so many [Jews] showing total moral bankruptcy, a systematic level of the behavior. If it's ingrained in [Jewish] traditional culture, conservative values of "masculine power", national heroes, to achieve greatness, then they truly are living in the past as I've been saying. No wonder they want to expand the empire, create a new world order and create a massive [Jewish homeland] with a proud people under a strong man. It almost reminds me of...


Can you imagine? I feel sick typing that.
Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 13:27 #700140
Quoting Isaac
Re-writing really needs at least a few pages to go by...

the behavior is systemic in their politics, which leads to their war behavior accordingly. So it's ingrained in Russian traditional culture, it's part of their type of hero culture, their type of masculinity norms, and fascist power hierarchies. — Christoffer
— Isaac


Yes, as you can see, I start with "politics" and focus on the war behavior it spawns. What informs this political perspective? Maybe the hero culture, the masculinity norms and fascist power hierarchies where there has to be a hero leading the people and the people needs to follow this person as almost being godlike.

If anyone thinks this is racist, they don't know what the fuck they're talking about. It's about the structure and moral philosophy informing their political behaviors that get spearheaded on the battlefield.

Quoting Isaac
Yes, maybe I am. Maybe I'm not.


You are. They are there investigating, they are uncovering this, and you call these people liers because the war crimes and atrocities being systematic by the Russian military don't fit with your opinions.

I mean, you have already pointed out that you don't do any research and that you just find things that support your opinion and won't care for anything else.

Quoting Isaac
Scarily similar to some of the early anti-Semitism in 30s Europe though, much of the writing at the time talked about the culture of Jewry rather than the actual genetic Jew. Didn't take long to mutate into pure racism.


Oh, so you mean that the Jews culture leads them to war crimes on a battlefield? That's a new one for me, I thought that they criticized Jews like that to paint them as bad when they weren't. Or maybe you're just doing a guilt by association fallacy, trying to connect dots where there aren't any in order to just paint me as a fucking nazi racist? Are you fucking serious right now? Do you have a brain meltdown not understanding what I'm talking about?

Quoting Streetlight
Can you imagine? I feel sick typing that.


Except Jews didn't do anything wrong, they didn't push politics that then pushed some military leaders to execute civilians. Do you think I'm just writing this out of context against Russians? Why the fuck do you just intentionally misinterpret everything like this?
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 13:44 #700152
Quoting neomac
I was questioning your theory of “rightful owners” and the issue is this: if the rightful owners of Crimea are the Crimean Tatars more than the Russians, then - according to your theory - they are the people that could legitimise annexation or independence of Crimea, so even if they wanted Crimea to be part of Turkey, that should be fine with you!


Nope, you weren't "questioning my theory of rightful owners" but your deliberate misinterpretation of it!

It's precisely that kind of statement that demonstrates beyond reasonable doubt that you ARE ignorant and confused. Are you sure you aren't related to @ssu and @Christoffer? :rofl:

As a matter of fact, you haven't really addressed any of the many legitimate points I've made. All you're doing is resort to evasion and diversion to cover up your ignorance and duplicity.

If the Crimean Tatars are "indigenous Crimeans", why don't they call themselves Indigenous Crimeans? Why do they call themselves "Tatars", a name given to Mongols and Turks from Central Asia?

Wikipedia - and all other sources - state very clearly (a) that Tatars are a Turkic people and (b) that Turkic people are a Mongoloid group that originated in Siberia. What exactly have I "misunderstood"???

By definition, Tatars are a TURKIC people. Turkic peoples were nomadic tribes that originated in Northern Asia (Siberia) from where they migrated to Mongolia and Central Asia.

Turkic Migrations – LibreTexts

Turkic migration – Wikipedia

From Central Asia, the Turkic tribes began to invade the Caucasus and Eastern Europe. The first Turkic tribes to invade the area to the north of the Black Sea and Crimea were:

Huns (4th century AD)
Bulgars (7th century)
Khazars (8th century)
Pechenegs (11th century)
Cumans (11th century).

It must be noted that these were warlike, nomadic tribes that occupied and enslaved local populations:

The Cumans entered the grasslands of the present-day southern Russian steppe in the 11th century AD and went on to assault the Byzantine Empire, the Kingdom of Hungary, the Principality of Pereyaslavl and Kievan Rus'. Cumans – Wikipedia


When the Mongols began to invade the region in the 1200’s AD, they were joined by many Turkic tribes. The name “Tatar” is an exonym, i.e., it was given by Indo-European (Caucasoid) locals to this mixture of Mongol and Turkic invaders. By adopting it and calling themselves “Tatars”, Turkic tribes from Crimea clearly identified with the invaders to whom they had close cultural, linguistic, and genetic links.

Indeed, the first Crimean state, the Crimean Khanate established in the 1400’s, was a Turkic state in which the ruling classes were Mongols and Turks, and the majority were enslaved Europeans.

According to sources (e.g. Encyclopedia Britannica), 75% of Crimea’s population under the Tatar Khanate were non-Tatar slaves and freedmen, i.e., mostly Slavs from Russia, Ukraine, and Poland, and Caucasians from places like Georgia and Circassia.

When Russia took Crimea from Turkey in 1783, the majority of Crimeans are supposed to have been Tatars. However, this is obviously misleading as it depends entirely on how “Tatar” is defined.

Many Russians and Ukrainians, and I suspect even Putin himself, have some Tatar (Mongol-Turkic) ancestry and may even have some Tatar features. But modern genetic analysis shows that even those who self-identify as “Tatar” often have more European DNA than Tatar. This renders the claim that Tatars made up “the majority” prior to the Russian takeover of Crimea highly questionable.

As you can see for yourself, the Tatar lady who posted her DNA data on ICCRIMEA is only 28% Northern Asian, i.e., Siberian-Mongol-Turkic or Tatar proper. Are you now denying your own evidence? :grin:

In some Crimean Tatars the percentage may indeed be higher or lower as she suggests, but if her DNA is anywhere near average, this indicates that genuine Tatars with more than 50% Northern Asian DNA could not have been the majority! Your own evidence contradicts your claim that Tatars were "the majority"!!!

In fact, if you care to think about it, 28% Tatar DNA matches estimates according to which 75% of the Crimean population was non-Tatar even at the time of the Tatar Khanate!

The true ratio of Northern/East Asian and European DNA in Tatar populations is corroborated by data from individuals outside Crimea, such as the Volga-Ural region, showing that the mitochondrial gene pool of the Volga Tatars has a Eurasian (Caucasoid) component that prevails considerably over the Eastern Asian (Mongoloid) one:

The Volga Tatars live in the central and eastern parts of European Russia and in western Siberia. They are the descendants of the Bulgar and Kipchak Turkic tribes who inhabited the western wing of the Mongol Empire, the area of the middle Volga River (Khalikov 1978; Kuzeev 1992). The Volga Bulgars settled on the Volga in the eighth century, where they mingled with Scythian- and Finno-Ugric-speaking peoples. After the Mongol invasion, much of the population survived and mixed with the Kipchak Tatars. Anthropologically, about 80% of the Volga Tatars belong today to Caucasoids and 20% to Mongoloids (Khalikov 1978). Linguistically, they speak a language of a distinct branch of the Turkic group, within the Altaian family of languages.


Mitogenomic Diversity in Tatars from the Volga-Ural Region of Russia - Oxford Academic

As for claims that “Crimean Tatars have nowhere else to go than Crimea”, they are complete nonsense given that most Crimean Tatars emigrated (note, emigrated, not "expelled") to Turkey between 1783 and 1897, thus settling that question of their own accord.

Indeed, most of the descendants of Crimean Tatar immigrants in Turkey (5-6 million according to some estimates) have assimilated and consider themselves Turks. The very fact that they emigrated to Turkey (where they were received with open arms as “Crimean Turks”) confirms that Tatars themselves saw themselves as a Turkic group. Whether all of them were genuine Tatars and whether Turkey was their true home is another matter.

The way I see it, the correct application of the principle that “every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners” is not for Crimean Tatars to join Turkey – as Turkey itself is territory illegally taken from Greeks, Armenians, Kurds, and others – but to return to Turkic countries in Central Asia.

Stalin’s resettlement of Crimea’s Tatar minority (about 20% of the total population) to their original homeland in Central Asia was unfair on those Tatars who were actually European, and this was readily acknowledged by the Russian authorities who eventually gave resettled Tatars the right to return.

To the extent that it was arbitrary, that resettlement scheme was a mistake. It is one thing to relocate genuine Turkic Crimeans to Central Asia where they had come from. It is quite another to send Greeks who had lived in Crimea since the 7th century BC to Kazakhstan!

Similar mistakes were made during population exchanges between Greece and Turkey in the 1920’s when thousands of Greeks ended up in Turkey just because they were Muslim and Turks ended up in Greece because they were Christian. Or when ethnic Germans were expelled from Eastern Europe after WW2, even though they had lived there for centuries, etc., etc.

This is why, personally, I’m against forced deportations and I think diplomatic solutions backed by financial incentives are to be preferred. But the process has to start with correctly identifying who should relocate. Otherwise, how are we going to know which territory rightfully belongs to whom?

In the Crimean context, the problem seems to be not as much genetic as CULTURAL. The genetic evidence indicates that “Tatars” are mostly Indo-Europeans (Caucasoids) who were forced to speak Tatar (a Turkic language) and to convert to Islam under Mongol-Turkic rule. In other words, they assumed an alien cultural and linguistic identity under foreign occupation and this identity is now blown out of proportion for political ends.

And if the problem is cultural, one logical solution would be not to resettle Crimeans of European descent but to encourage them to shed their false Turkic or “Tatar” identity.

In any case, Tatar presence in Crimea does NOT show that “Crimea belongs to Ukraine”!

Yet the Natoist argument seems to be as follows:

A. Crimea is “Tatar”.
B. Tatars are “Ukrainians”.
C. Therefore Crimea is Ukrainian.
D. And Ukraine is Western.
E. Therefore Ukraine and Crimea belong to America and its NATO Empire.
F. But Russia doesn’t think that Crimea and Ukraine belong to America.
G. Therefore Russia must be destroyed so that it never again deviates from what America says the world should think.

Who has given America the right to destroy a country of 150 million just because it thinks differently?

If America is prepared to do this to Russia, how can other countries be sure that it won’t do the same to them?

Moreover, the destruction of Russia is likely to result in Turkey, China, Iran, and other powers trying to fill the vacuum and potentially lead to decades of instability and war in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere.

Eastern Europe is already heading for a serious recession, probably to be soon followed by Western Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Economic hardship and wars will result in millions of refugees fleeing to Western Europe and other parts of the First World. These are enormous problems that America has created but is unwilling and unable to solve.

America has a long and well-documented history of “solving” some problems whilst creating many other new ones. We need only look at Iraq where they removed Saddam Hussein but created ideal conditions for Islamic State a.k.a. ISIS to emerge - who turned out to be far worse than Saddam.

In these circumstances, European and other leaders around the world may start asking themselves whether it isn’t time to break free from America’s policy of world domination in which the only thing that matters are the interests of US oil and defense corporations.

IMO a far more balanced – and philosophically acceptable – position would be to follow the lead of less-ideologically-committed analysts, and advise Ukraine to (a) stay neutral and (b) cede some territory, e.g., Crimea, to Russia.

As Henry Kissinger has said, “the United States needs to avoid treating Russia as an aberrant to be taught rules of conduct established by Washington.” I think philosophers would do well to consider the implications of refusing to follow Kissinger’s advice.

Quoting ssu
Russia's response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO clearly shows that actually NATO enlargement was more of an excuse than the real reason for invading Ukraine.


Nope. It doesn't "clearly show" that at all. Russia did NOT invade Ukraine because of NATO expansion in Finland, but because of potential or anticipated NATO expansion in Ukraine!!!

Quoting ssu
I've had a front row seat to see this in action when the Soviet neighbor transformed into being Russia again. There's not much difference especially during the Putin years.


Well, that only shows your anti-Russian bias. Wanting Russia to be like Finland sounds pretty unhinged to me. Why don't you want America to be like Finland? Or the whole world? :grin:

You're using the same NATO NAZI argument as @Christoffer according to which Russia and the world MUST be like the West or else.

Plus, you haven't demonstrated that the Armenian-Azeri conflict was created by Russia.

Quoting Olivier5
Prior to the Europeans, the Arabs had been raiding and buying slaves from East African black communities for centuries, from Somalia to Zanzibar.


Correct. Prior to the Arabs it was Africans who raided, enslaved, and sold off other Africans. But Africa had its own prosperous kingdoms until they were conquered by France, England, and Belgium. They're now emigrating to France because France is their former colonial "mother country" that exploited, oppressed, and ruined her children.

Et en plus, what will happen when old Mother France gets old and passes away? Will her stepchildren still live under her boot, or sit on her throne? :smile:





Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 13:52 #700156
Quoting Christoffer
An immature philosophy that doesn't care for human lives. Can we conclude that the basic respect for human life and rights is part of a modern philosophy that's considered up to date?


I won't go into that because to me, "up to date" means nothing in philosophy. There is no progress in philosophy, as there is in science or technology.

The idea that human life deserves respect is very old, and rooted in religion: it was argued that human beings deserve respect because they are in the image of God.

What I am saying re. Russia is that Putin and his archeo-tchekists do not believe in God nor in Man deserving any respect. They are hardcore materialists, therefore for them might is right, force is legitimate, and killing human beings is not anymore a problem than killing worms or flies.
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 13:56 #700163
Quoting Apollodorus
They're now emigrating to France because France is their former colonial "mother country" that exploited, oppressed, and ruined her children.


Interesting opinion but I note that Afghanistan or Ethiopia were never colonized. Yet there's no shortage of poor people and emigrants from Ethiopia or Afghanistan. Also France got a huge influx of Polish, Italian, Armenian, Russian, Spanish and Portuguese immigrants over the years, and yet we never colonized them... So maybe colonisation is not the only factor at play

Maybe folks want to go live in Europe because there, one might have a remote chance of improving one's lot.

[I]Rêver, c'est déjà ça...[/i]

Streetlight May 24, 2022 at 14:09 #700178
Anyway, leaving the bigots to their blather...

--

It is quite interesting to watch the slow pivot of US Empire from Russia to China. Having now (for now?) mired Russia in a stupid, senseless war it did everything to enable, it now looks to Taiwan as the next bunch of people who can drop dead for their purposes. Now with the timing of the - rightly horrifying - 'Xinjiang Police Files', the pressure on the America's next geopolitical rival is set to be ramped up.
Baden May 24, 2022 at 14:17 #700183
Reply to Christoffer

The problem in your comments as I see it is the overgeneralization. Critiques of culture require nuance and objectivity, which you've lacked. You are not the only one who does that and I wouldn't call it racist, but it's clumsy and unhelpful, just like some of the criticisms of America, the West, and NATO have been. I've been guilty of that myself too at times, and the consistency and intensity of the prejudices on display here remind me why sometimes I just need to keep my hands off the keyboard.
Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 14:24 #700190
Quoting Baden
The problem in your comments as I see it is the overgeneralization. Critiques of culture require nuance and objectivity, which you've lacked. You are not the only one who does that and I wouldn't call it racist, but it's clumsy and unhelpful, just like some of the criticisms of America, the West, and NATO have been. I've been guilty of that myself too at times, and the consistency and intensity of the prejudices on display here remind me why sometimes I just need to keep my hands off the keyboard.


Thank you for a normal answer. And yes, I wasn't racist in any kind of intention, I wasn't talking about a Russian people in that sense, but an ideology and ideal very common in Russia and extremely common in their politics and military. The clumsiness could be that I'm not native of the English word, so maybe something was lost in translation, I don't know, but if I would have gotten your answer instead of the bullying behavior of the others, then I could have elaborated more and explained better instead of having to defend against low-quality trash. But yeah, I feel less and less like going to this forum. It seems to be a place dedicated for the bullies to feel important rather than focused on good discussions.
Baden May 24, 2022 at 14:27 #700194
Reply to Christoffer

A lot of that back and forth is just going to get deleted anyhow and I don't know who's bullying who but there's not much in the way of charitable interchange going on for sure.
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 14:30 #700197
Quoting Christoffer
I wasn't talking about a Russian people in that sense, but an ideology and ideal very common in Russia and extremely common in their politics and military.


Shouldn't Russia's "ideology" be a matter for Russians to decide?

And you do seem to regard Russian society as somehow defective and inferior, and therefore in need of being "corrected" by you.



Baden May 24, 2022 at 14:31 #700198
Reply to Olivier5

It's right to point out prejudice, which was on display in Christoffer's post, but all of you are looking for excuses to make each other look as bad as possible.
Baden May 24, 2022 at 14:32 #700199
Quoting Apollodorus
And you do seem to regard Russian society as somehow defective and inferior, and therefore in need of being "corrected" by you.


E.g. That's a better way to make the point.
Baden May 24, 2022 at 14:39 #700204
Or we can point out that nothing fundamental about Russian culture has changed since they were the world's heroes for overthrowing communism.
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 14:45 #700210
Quoting Baden
It's right to point out prejudice, which was on display in Christoffer's post, but all of you are looking for excuses to make each other look as bad as possible.


Contrary to you. You're quite good at making yourself look good. :-)
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 14:46 #700211
Quoting Olivier5
Rêver, c'est déjà ça...


But why does he rêve something and not something else? IMO, social and economic background, history, colonization, etc. seem to influence the content of the reve ....
Baden May 24, 2022 at 14:48 #700216
Reply to Olivier5

Not always... :halo:
Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 14:49 #700219
Quoting Apollodorus
Shouldn't Russia's "ideology" be a matter for Russians to decide?

And you do seem to regard Russian society as somehow defective and inferior, and therefore in need of being "corrected" by you.


I'm speaking of an ideology or idealism that's very common in Russia. The society in Russia is split, with a lot of people not following this type of idealism. The ones who do, primarily under Putin's enforcement of this idealism, trickle down the military chain of command, down to soldiers on the ground shooting civilians in the back in order to loot and rape. It happens so systematically in so many places that this isn't just an isolated behavior, it's a result of putting an ideal before human well-being. If you go into war with well-being in mind, you don't do anything other than what you have to do on the battlefield. But raising these boys into this behavior comes from somewhere and looking at how Putin and his people talk, behave and the ideology they push, we can see an idealism of heroes leading a united people where the empire, the "thing" is more important than the individual human being.

This is the ideology and idealism I criticized. On one hand, you have Russians who don't agree with it, who speak up against the war because they see through this pipe dream that used to indoctrinate people but have a harder time today due to information flow being more free and uninfluenced by the people in power. And on the other, the conservatives who want to return to this ideal society, this empire where people in power were regarded as deities while the empire aimed for greatness and beyond.

And yes, their ideology is for them to decide unless the result of such ideology spills over into atrocities and horrors for other people in other nations who didn't ask for it. Just like the Nazis, which I made a point about. The behavior of people in power, throwing their own people into other nations as cannon fodder, in order to realize their fascist dreams.

Quoting Baden
Or we can point out that nothing fundamental about Russian culture has changed since they were the world's heroes for overthrowing communism.


This is basically my point, the Russian culture hasn't changed, while some Russians have and oppose it due to its destructive consequences. Some Russians want to have a change from that conservative pipe dreams, and they get beaten down by a fascist boot for wanting it. How this is different from Nazi Germany, I don't know.
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 14:49 #700220
Quoting Olivier5
Contrary to you. You're quite good at making yourself look good


I bet he'd look even better with a glass of poitín in his hand .... :wink:
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 14:54 #700224
Quoting Apollodorus
But why does he rêve something and not something else?


Now you are talking. The West has also colonized the minds of folks. So the first thing to do, for those hoping of liberation, would be to free one's mind from their BS. And one of those BS idea about the West, is precisely that it's all the West's fault.

Thinking that it's all the West's fault is the same BS as the 'white man's burden'. It's treating Europe or the West as exceptional, as oh-so-special. It's pretending that the white man rules the whole world.

Reply to Baden I don't care much about how I look, myself. Optics moptics.

Streetlight here has been calling for France's destruction, by the way, in case you care beyond mere optics.... :-)
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 15:07 #700236
Quoting Christoffer
And yes, their ideology is for them to decide unless the result of such ideology spills over into atrocities and horrors for other people in other nations who didn't ask for it. Just like the Nazis, which I made a point about. The behavior of people in power, throwing their own people into other nations as cannon fodder, in order to realize their fascist dreams.


Wasn't communism a Western ideology? Didn't the Western world erupt into applause when czarist "dictatorship" was replaced by Stalinism? Didn't Western intellectuals call Lenin the best statesman in the world?

Plus, "fascism" isn't necessarily imposed by force of arms. It can be done through education, indoctrination, mass manipulation and control. Say something in your country that deviates from the politically correct "norm" and you'll get ostracized.

In other words, your own society allows "freedom" only so long as you think, speak, and act as you're told .... :grin:
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 15:11 #700240
Quoting Apollodorus
poitín


What is poitín?
Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 15:12 #700241
Quoting Olivier5
So the first thing to do, for those hoping of liberation, would be to free one's mind from their BS. And one of those BS idea about the West, is precisely that it's all the West's fault.


Exactly. The fault of the perpetrators is not the fault of an entire culture, especially not in a secular and multicultural culture like "the west". "The west" is such an extremely broad perspective and I think most people just think of "the west" as being "the US" and through guilt by association, every western nation is therefore supporting or equally being as bad as "the US". As I've also pointed out long ago, we've lived in an intellectual anti-western criticism for over 30 years now. We can just look at art, literature and other pop culture for that, there's such an introspective uppercut against western ideals of neoliberalism and capitalism from within our western society that people have forgotten that other cultures can also be "bad". But since so many spent over 30 years of criticizing the west they themselves live in, they cannot wrap their heads around someone else acting out as Russia has done now. So instead of accepting Russia's actions as being taken by them, they need to pin this on the west by any means necessary, since they emotionally feel like not doing so would undermine their critique of the west. Instead of just... criticize where it's valid to criticize.
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 15:15 #700245
Quoting Olivier5
And one of those BS idea about the West, is precisely that it's all the West's fault.


Sure. But that's only an extension of the BS idea that it's all Germany's and Russia's fault.

Non-Westerners aren't stupid. If Westerners keep criticizing each other, there is only one logical conclusion ....

BTW, poitín (Irish pronunciation: [?p??t?i?n?]), anglicized as poteen (/p??t(?)i?n, p??ti?n/) or potheen, is a traditional Irish distilled beverage (40–90% ABV). Former common names for poitín were "Irish moonshine" and "mountain dew" .... - Wikipedia
Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 15:18 #700246
Quoting Apollodorus
Wasn't communism a Western ideology? Didn't the Western world erupt into applause when czarist "dictatorship" was replaced by Stalinism? Didn't Western intellectuals call Lenin the best statesman in the world?


It's easy for the masses to praise something when no historical context exists to discredit it yet. And no, "the west" is not all. Not all praised Hitler either. First many did, then no one did, except the idiots.

Quoting Apollodorus
Plus, "fascism" isn't necessarily imposed by force of arms. It can be done through education, indoctrination, mass manipulation and control. Say something in your country that deviates from the politically correct "norm" and you'll get ostracized.


Fascism as I described it was state-controlled actual violence and silencing of anyone criticizing the government. The most literal form of fascism, when the boot is literal.

The other forms you describe can manifest through governments, but most likely through different groups in society. Other than that, you don't get ostracized in Sweden unless you actually conduct hate speech. If you say something that deviates from the most basic moral ideals, then you don't get ostracized by society because of fascism, but because you're a fucking asshole. I never understand how people confuse fascism with that, most likely because they don't know what fascism is.
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 15:26 #700256
Quoting Christoffer
you don't get ostracized by society because of fascism, but because you're a fucking asshole.


So, you DO get ostracized, after all.

And if someone doesn't think, speak, and act like you, he MUST be a "fucking asshole" because everything YOU say is always right. Isn't that how fascist ideology starts? :rofl:
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 15:27 #700258
Years ago, i found myself talking with a very nice guy from the English-speaking Caribbeans, at a party thrown by the French consulate in New York. So we're in this great décord, sipping fantastic champagne, and this guy explains to me how he used to think as a kid that not only the French were all jerks, but also all the francophone Caribbeans. And the reason why he used to think so, is simply that it was passed down him by his teachers at school, by his parents, by the culture.

And where did this idea come from?

My hypothesis is that historically, it was the colonizer, i.e. Great Britain, that inculcated in the minds of their many subjects the hatred of the other colonizers, i.e. of their "competitors" in the "colonization business". So the French were depicted as ridicule, the Spaniards as wasteful, etc. etc., to try and make sure that British colonies would remain British... And these convenient stereotypes have been carried down to this day.

All this to say that the colonized have in some case internalized the very racism of their colonizer.
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 15:32 #700263
Quoting Apollodorus
But that's only an extension of the BS idea that it's all Germany's and Russia's fault.


How about: Russia is responsible for what it actually did? If they bombed an entire country out of the blue, they own it.

Or are Russians inferior beings, unable to make their own decisions?
SophistiCat May 24, 2022 at 15:51 #700274
Quoting Baden
Or we can point out that nothing fundamental about Russian culture has changed since they were the world's heroes for overthrowing communism.


Yeah... Not long after that they were doing in Chechnya pretty much what they are doing in Ukraine today.

That's not to say that something is wrong with Russians in particular, as opposed to the rest of the world (who are "Russians" anyway - all who were born within Russian state borders?) That's a naive and unhelpful way of thinking.
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 15:59 #700275
Reply to Olivier5

What country did Russia "bomb out of the blue"?

If you mean Ukraine, it wasn't "out of the blue" at all. It was because of the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and then trying to retake Crimea and the ethnic Russian areas in Donbas, in addition to turning the Black Sea into a NATO lake.

I'm not defending Russia's bombing of Ukrainian civilians, but I think it had a legitimate reason to feel threatened which means that NATO bears some responsibility for the invasion. But there is no point going on and on about it. IMO it is more important to remove misconceptions like that Crimea belongs to Ukraine
Olivier5 May 24, 2022 at 16:41 #700287
Reply to Apollodorus There was no prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. It was out of the blue.
Christoffer May 24, 2022 at 17:39 #700303
Quoting Apollodorus
So, you DO get ostracized, after all.

And if someone doesn't think, speak, and act like you, he MUST be a "fucking asshole" because everything YOU say is always right. Isn't that how fascist ideology starts? :rofl:


No, now you're doing that thing again, the thing people ask you not to do, are you off your pills? The thing where you don't actually read or understand what you read and instead make up your own version of what was being said.

I said

Quoting Christoffer
If you say something that deviates from the most basic moral ideals, then you don't get ostracized by society because of fascism, but because you're a fucking asshole.


Now what can I possibly refer to here? Basic moral ideals? What would that mean? Maybe something like shouting racist slurs, misogyny, behaving aggressively, punching people or whatever. You know, things that balance on the edge of illegal but generally just make people exclude you from social connections and get you into trouble at work etc. We can go on and on about the philosophy surrounding this, but if you don't understand the basic concept of this then I'm afraid you either aren't capable of understanding it or you just decided not to in order to hold your line of argument or something. Most probable is that you just try to muddy the waters of the argument and I'm not interested in conducting that kind of discussion. Of course, you might mean "ostracized" in the old Greek version, that doesn't happen, maybe where you're from, but not here.
Apollodorus May 24, 2022 at 23:17 #700394
Quoting Christoffer
It's easy for the masses to praise something when no historical context exists to discredit it yet.


Nonsense! Western intellectuals praised Soviet Communism AFTER visiting Russia. Bernard Shaw, Lady Astor, Sidney and Beatrice Webb, and many other leading intellectuals and socialites of the time visited Soviet Russia and praised its regime.

Shaw said that Lenin was “the greatest statesman of Europe” and called Stalin “a good Fabian” in 1948. The Webbs wrote a book, Soviet Communism: A New Civilization, in which they praised the communist system. These were among the leading ideologists of the British Labour Party that formed a coalition government during the war and became the ruling party, thus controlling the whole British Empire, after the war. Far from being ignorant masses, they were well-informed intellectual elites!

Quoting Christoffer
Now what can I possibly refer to here? Basic moral ideals?


“Basic moral ideals”? Like calling people names for disagreeing with you??? :rofl:

From what I see here, in your opinion everyone who doesn’t think exactly like you is “a fucking asshole”, “a troll”, “off their pills”, etc., etc. Are you sure you aren’t related to @neomac and @ssu? As I said, NATO bots seem to come in packs of three, because they’re cheaper. And so do NATO Nazis …. :rofl:

Quoting Olivier5
There was no prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. It was out of the blue.


On 6 July 1990, NATO leaders proposed cooperation with all countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

On 20 December 1991, NATO created the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in which Ukraine and the other CIS countries (former Soviet republics) were invited to participate.

On 8 February 1994, Ukraine joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program (PfP) that the US government described as a "track that will lead to NATO membership".

On 29 May 1997, Ukraine became a member of NATO’s Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) that replaced the North Atlantic Cooperation Council.

On 24 June 2010 the Ukrainian government approved an action plan to implement an annual national program of cooperation with NATO that included training of Ukrainian troops in the structures of NATO members and joint tactical and strategic exercises with NATO.

On 8 June 2017, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law making integration with NATO "a foreign policy priority".

On 14 September 2020, Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO".

And in the meantime America and England were arming and training Ukrainian forces ….

So, not quite out of the blue.

In any case, if history teaches anything it is that the Germans know how to fight, the Americans and Brits know how to finance wars, and the Russians know how to flatten everything. Conclusion: if you’re a small country and don’t want to get flattened, don’t start a war with Russia!


Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 06:41 #700463
Quoting Apollodorus
the Russians know how to flatten everything.


Including themselves, apparently. Ukrainians will teach them a lesson.
Christoffer May 25, 2022 at 08:58 #700481
Quoting Apollodorus
Nonsense! Western intellectuals praised Soviet Communism AFTER visiting Russia. Bernard Shaw, Lady Astor, Sidney and Beatrice Webb, and many other leading intellectuals and socialites of the time visited Soviet Russia and praised its regime.


And did they know all the details of the regime? Did people visiting Nazi Germany in the 30s know every detail? How many times have people been in the dark about regimes, leaders, and other people, and only after the truth is revealed have they backed away from their praise? People praised Weinstein as well, up until it was clear they shouldn't.

Do you actually think that a regime will show visitors their murders and horrors in between welcoming drinks? :rofl: I know you desperately try to win an argument in any way possible, but this is just ridiculous.

Quoting Apollodorus
in which they praised the communist system.


There's nothing wrong with Marxism as a system and Russian communism was the Lenin/Stalin corruption of it. Without the knowledge of millions of people murdered, if you visited a nation that's among the first in the world to try and adapt anything from Marx and you get the snake oil sale pitch, of course, intellectuals were going to praise it. People praised Hitler as well, remember that he fixed the German economy, do you think people didn't praise him for that?

Judging people's opinions today by the context of 100 years of history into the future is downright stupid. We don't know what is revealed in 10 years or 30 years. We might, today, live in a time where we praise stuff that in 30 years' time will be revealed to be monstrous. You don't seem to understand how psychology works or how little people actually know.

Quoting Apollodorus
“Basic moral ideals”? Like calling people names for disagreeing with you??? :rofl:


Can you do anything other than strawmanning? If you are unable to then why should anyone discuss with you?

Quoting Apollodorus
From what I see here, in your opinion everyone who doesn’t think exactly like you is “a fucking asshole”, “a troll”, “off their pills”, etc., etc. Are you sure you aren’t related to neomac and @ssu? As I said, NATO bots seem to come in packs of three, because they’re cheaper. And so do NATO Nazis …. :rofl:


So you are in bullshitting mode again. You're not really making yourself relevant to the discussion. If you want to be a joke in here, I'm not interested.





Isaac May 25, 2022 at 12:09 #700509
Quoting Olivier5
Ukrainians will teach them a lesson.


Does your passion for getting other people to die for your moral didactics know no bounds?
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 12:29 #700513
Quoting Apollodorus
They're still getting flattened, though.


Indeed, but Russia will have to fold at some point; they cannot keep this up forever. So the Ukrainians are teaching them a lesson: a lesson in resilience.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 12:31 #700514
Reply to Isaac Does your nastiness know limits, other than those imposed by your stupidity?
Apollodorus May 25, 2022 at 12:47 #700520
Reply to Olivier5

It's easy to be resilient when you get bankrolled, armed, trained, encouraged, and supported by the world's largest military organization.

Besides, Russia has also shown resilience by repelling numerous attempts to conquer and subjugate it since Napoleon's time and before ....
Christoffer May 25, 2022 at 13:10 #700525
Quoting Apollodorus
why don't you lead by example like a good NATO Nazi


Is this enough proof that Apollodorus is playing into the Putin narrative of everyone against him and Russia are Nazis? I guess moderators are fine with it
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 13:10 #700526
Quoting Apollodorus
It's easy to be resilient


What is really easy, down right facile, is to be dismissive and contemptuous of people defending their country.
Christoffer May 25, 2022 at 13:12 #700527
Quoting Olivier5
What is really easy, down right facile, is to be dismissive and contemptuous of people defending their country.


According to him, any defense against Russia and Putin is considered being a Nazi, so it's quite obvious where he stands.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 13:14 #700528
Reply to Christoffer It would be unrealistic to expect non-partisan moderation. The moderators are human beings; they have friends here, and you and I do not feature among them.
Isaac May 25, 2022 at 13:27 #700531
Reply to Olivier5 Reply to Christoffer

Seriously guys, I don't see any need to keep dragging the moderators into this brawl. You both know full well your own posts have been no less viscous, inflammatory and off-topic as anyone else's, so just give up with this pathetic 'appeal to the law'. If this thread were moderated more strictly, half your posts would be discarded with the rest, so if you want a different standard of debate, set it yourself first before criticising others for not enforcing rules you yourselves are not even prepared to keep to.

If a response offends you, flag it, and then, most importantly, don't just copy the exact same tone, that just so offended you, in response.
Baden May 25, 2022 at 14:26 #700549
Reply to Christoffer

Quoting Isaac
If a response offends you, flag it, and then, most importantly, don't just copy the exact same tone, that just so offended you, in response.


We don't spend every moment of our day watching this thread, therefore moderation not being instant is not evidence that it won't be forthcoming. You can expedite the process by doing the above.

Quoting Olivier5
It would be unrealistic to expect non-partisan moderation. The moderators are human beings; they have friends here, and you and I do not feature among them.


Hate to interrupt your martyrdom, Jeanne d'Arc, but same applies to you. Further complaints can be directed to feedback or PM.
Christoffer May 25, 2022 at 14:31 #700552
Reply to Isaac

Like we are the ones who entered this thread in a tribalistic mentality and you are the one calling in mods. :rofl: I've been trying to get mods into this thread to properly moderate it since the beginning of this tribalistic attitude started and they refused, and now you try to play the good guy? :rofl:
My interest in this thread has fallen, it's not a discussion anymore, it's just bully egos and bullshit arguments.

I don't agree at all that a political discussion where there's a lot of emotion involved means it's better not to moderate it, I think it needs moderation much more because of it. At the moment, there's really nothing of intellectual value going on in this thread so the value of participating is down the drain.
Baden May 25, 2022 at 14:35 #700553
Reply to Christoffer

I've deleted dozens of posts just in the last couple of days and I've had enough of baseless complaints we're not moderating the thread, especially by someone who needs moderation as much as anyone else here. Future comments on moderation will be deleted. Stay on topic or stay away.
jorndoe May 25, 2022 at 16:53 #700599
Quoting Isaac
Does your passion for getting other people to die for your moral didactics know no bounds?


The Russians (and their Nazi compadres) can head home, the Ukrainians are already home.
The Russians (and their Nazi compadres) have homes, the Ukrainians are running :fire: shorter.

Unless ... "You can check out any time you like / But you can never leave" ...

Isaac May 25, 2022 at 17:13 #700613
Quoting jorndoe
The Russians (and their Nazi compadres) can head home, the Ukrainians are already home.
The Russians (and their Nazi compadres) have homes, the Ukrainians are running :fire: shorter.


I'm not quite sure what you're trying to say here (I rarely am with your posts, I have to say). The Russians are the invading party, yes. I think we're all agreed on that. My comment was directed against people sitting in comfort hundreds of miles away egging on strangers they've never given a shit about before (nor will after) to risk their lives so that these armchair wargamers can get their rocks off on a Russian defeat.

If @Olivier5, or you for that matter, think it such a good cause to die for, then get out there and start shooting, otherwise a little humility might be in order recognising it's other people's lives you're gleefully anticipating the consequences of risking.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 17:21 #700620
Quoting Isaac
it's other people's lives you're gleefully anticipating the consequences of risking.


Where do you see any glee? Where does this accusation of gleefulness come from?

Maybe what you confuse with glee here, is hope.
neomac May 25, 2022 at 17:32 #700628
Quoting Apollodorus
Nope, you weren't "questioning my theory of rightful owners" but your deliberate misinterpretation of it!
It's precisely that kind of statement that demonstrates beyond reasonable doubt that you ARE ignorant and confused. Are you sure you aren't related to ssu and @Christoffer? :rofl:
As a matter of fact, you haven't really addressed any of the many legitimate points I've made. All you're doing is resort to evasion and diversion to cover up your ignorance and duplicity.


Dude, I don’t mind your insults, it’s really that you arguments really suck. Even sarcasm is wasted on you.

Quoting Apollodorus
If the Crimean Tatars are "indigenous Crimeans", why don't they call themselves Indigenous Crimeans? Why do they call themselves “Tatars”, a name given to Mongols and Turks from Central Asia?


Again?! I’m going to repeat the same answer I gave you in the previous post (https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/699578).
[i]“Crimean Tatars" speak a “Crimean Tatar language” as their native language:
The Crimean Tatar language (q?r?mtatar tili, ??????????? ????, tatar t?l?, tatar?a, k?r?m tatar?a), also called Crimean language (q?r?m tili, ?????? ????), is a Kipchak Turkic language spoken in Crimea and the Crimean Tatar diasporas of Uzbekistan, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, as well as small communities in the United States and Canada. It should not be confused with Tatar proper, spoken in Tatarstan and adjacent regions in Russia; the languages are related, but belong to two different subgroups of the Kipchak languages and thus are not mutually intelligible. It has been extensively influenced by nearby Oghuz dialects.[/I]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatar_language

But for sure that’s not enough to call them “the Mongols of Crimea” as you did!

Quoting Apollodorus
Wikipedia - and all other sources - state very clearly (a) that Tatars are a Turkic people and (b) that Turkic people are a Mongoloid group that originated in Siberia. What exactly have I "misunderstood"???


You do not only confuse cultural factors with biological factors but you do it on a historical scale (given your obsession for the mythic “origins”).

“Mongoloid race” has to do with biology:
[i]Mongoloid (/?m??.??.l??d/[1]) is an obsolete racial grouping of various people indigenous to large parts of Asia, the Americas, and some regions in Europe and Oceania. The term is derived from a now-disproven theory of biological race.[2] In the past, other terms such as "Mongolian race", "yellow", "Asiatic" and "Oriental" have been used as synonyms.
BTW
The concept of dividing humankind into three races called Caucasoid, Mongoloid, and Negroid was introduced in the 1780s by members of the Göttingen School of History and further developed by Western scholars in the context of racist ideologies during the age of colonialism.[3] With the rise of modern genetics, the concept of distinct human races in a biological sense has become obsolete.[/I]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongoloid


“Tatar” has to do with language:
[i]The Tatars (/?t??t?rz/; Tatar: ????????, tatarlar, ???????, Crimean Tatar: tatarlar; Old Turkic: , romanized: Tatar) is an umbrella term for different Turkic ethnic groups bearing the name “Tatar".
[…] More recently, however, the term has come to refer more narrowly to related ethnic groups who refer to themselves as Tatars or who speak languages that are commonly referred to as Tatar, namely Tatar by Volga Tatars (Tatars proper), Crimean Tatar by Crimean Tatars and Siberian Tatar by Siberian Tatars.[/I]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars

[i]The Turkic peoples are a collection of diverse ethnic groups of Central, East, North and West Asia as well as parts of Europe, who speak Turkic languages.[/I]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkic_peoples


[i]Authors Joo-Yup Lee and Shuntu Kuang analyzed ten years of genetic research on Turkic people and compiled scholarly information about Turkic origins, and said that the early and medieval Turks were a heterogeneous group and that the Turkification of Eurasia was a result of language diffusion, not a migration of a homogeneous population.[/I]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkic_migration#Origin_theories


[i]Tatars are divided into 3 main ethno-territorial groups: Tatars of the Middle Volga and Ural regions, Siberian Tatars, Astrakhan Tatars. In addition, a separate group of Polish-Lithuanian Tatars is distinguished. Crimean Tatars, due to their ethno-historical development, are considered a separate people. Volga Tatars are divided into 3 groups: Kazan Tatars, Mishars and Teptyars, Kasimov Tatars form an intermediate group. Siberian Tatars are divided into 3 groups: Baraba, Tobolsk, Tomsk. Astrakhan Tatars are also divided into 3 groups: Yurt, Kundra Tatars and Karagash, close to the Nogais. The traditional occupation of the Tatars is arable farming, among the Astrakhan Tatars - cattle breeding and melon growing. Tatars are Sunni Muslims, with the exception of minor groups of Kryashens and Nagaybaks, who converted to Orthodoxy as early as the 16th-18th centuries. According to the anthropological type, the Kazan Tatars are Caucasoids, part of the Astrakhan and Siberian Tatars belong to the South Siberian type of the Mongoloid race[/I].
Source: https://www.vokrugsveta.ru/encyclopedia/index.php?title=%D0%A2%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%8B

So the generic label “Tatars” may refer to different races, different turkic languages, and different ethnic groups in different historical periods and geographical regions! And I pointed that out on many occasions! Your misconceptions stem from your ignorance and confusion about the ethnohistory of the people called “Tatars”, and the result of this is your misconception that the Crimean Tatars are the Mongols of Crimea, which is false on historical, genetic and linguistic grounds!





Quoting Apollodorus
According to sources (e.g. Encyclopedia Britannica), 75% of Crimea’s population under the Tatar Khanate were non-Tatar slaves and freedmen, i.e., mostly Slavs from Russia, Ukraine, and Poland, and Caucasians from places like Georgia and Circassia.


So what?! Can you provide the link to the source you are referring to?




Quoting Apollodorus
When Russia took Crimea from Turkey in 1783, the majority of Crimeans are supposed to have been Tatars. However, this is obviously misleading as it depends entirely on how “Tatar” is defined.
Many Russians and Ukrainians, and I suspect even Putin himself, have some Tatar (Mongol-Turkic) ancestry and may even have some Tatar features. But modern genetic analysis shows that even those who self-identify as “Tatar” often have more European DNA than Tatar. This renders the claim that Tatars made up “the majority” prior to the Russian takeover of Crimea highly questionable.


So what?! And who on earth said that “the Tatars” made up the majority?! In my previous post (https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/699578) I said: “after the Tatar-Mongol reign, the Crimean Tatars as indigenous people of Crimea became the majority by assimilating other ethnic groups (see this historical demographic map https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Ethnic_Population_of_Crimea_18th%E2%80%9321st_century.png)”

I never understood the label of “Crimean Tatars” as referring to Mongols or historical Tatar-Mongol (like the Golden Horde invaders and rulers), you did and I questioned it!


Quoting Apollodorus
As you can see for yourself, the Tatar lady who posted her DNA data on ICCRIMEA is only 28% Northern Asian, i.e., Siberian-Mongol-Turkic or Tatar proper. Are you now denying your own evidence? :grin:
In some Crimean Tatars the percentage may indeed be higher or lower as she suggests, but if her DNA is anywhere near average, this indicates that genuine Tatars with more than 50% Northern Asian DNA could not have been the majority! Your own evidence contradicts your claim that Tatars were "the majority"!!!


What on earth did you just write?!!! I cited this ICCRIMEA article to support the claim that Crimean Tatars are NOT MONGOLS AS YOU CLAIM!!! And again, I never said that the Tatars as you understand them were the majority, but I explicitly said that the Crimean Tatars as the indigenous people of Crimea by assimilation of different ethnic groups became the majority prior to the Russification of Crimea, see the fucking historical demographic map I provided to you!!!


Quoting Apollodorus
The true ratio of Northern/East Asian and European DNA in Tatar populations is corroborated by data from individuals outside Crimea, such as the Volga-Ural region, showing that the mitochondrial gene pool of the Volga Tatars has a Eurasian (Caucasoid) component that prevails considerably over the Eastern Asian (Mongoloid) one:

The Volga Tatars live in the central and eastern parts of European Russia and in western Siberia. They are the descendants of the Bulgar and Kipchak Turkic tribes who inhabited the western wing of the Mongol Empire, the area of the middle Volga River (Khalikov 1978; Kuzeev 1992). The Volga Bulgars settled on the Volga in the eighth century, where they mingled with Scythian- and Finno-Ugric-speaking peoples. After the Mongol invasion, much of the population survived and mixed with the Kipchak Tatars. Anthropologically, about 80% of the Volga Tatars belong today to Caucasoids and 20% to Mongoloids (Khalikov 1978). Linguistically, they speak a language of a distinct branch of the Turkic group, within the Altaian family of languages.


Mitogenomic Diversity in Tatars from the Volga-Ural Region of Russia - Oxford Academic


And how on earth does that prove that “the truth of the matter is that there is very little genetic difference between Mongols and Turkic people like the Tatars” as you claimed?! And how on earth does that prove that Crimean Tatars currently living in Crimea are Mongols or historical Mongol-Tatars as you claimed?!
Crimean Tatars are NEITHER MONGOLS (whatever the origin of the turkic language or of the Tatar migrations is !!!) NOR THE HISTORICAL TATAR-MONGOLS AS YOU CLAIMED OR SUGGESTED!!!! EXACTLY THE POINT I MADE A WHILE AGO!
[i][b]Conclusion: Wikipedia historical trivia (yours included) do not question but confirm that the ethnic stratification of Crimean Tatars relate to the period prior to, during and after the Mongol empire (which per se was already a multi-ethnic empire as many ancient empires were! And that is also why genetic evidence about “generic” Tatars wrt Mongols is neither very useful nor conclusive!), that is why they are not Mongols in a historical sense either!
So any assimilation of Crimean Tatars with Mongols or middle-age Mongolian-Tatar hordes is, to be kind, an oversimplification, partly based on historical misconceptions (arguably still supported by Russian propaganda [2])[/b].
[2] The firm belief that the Crimean Tatars were descendants of the Golden Horde, who settled on the peninsula in the first half of the 13th century, was firmly ingrained in the minds of many scholars. This myth appeared immediately after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 1783, and has since become firmly entrenched in official Russian and then Soviet historiography and continues to be replicated in the scientific literature. The falsifiers took the events related to the Horde period as the starting point of origin of the Crimean Tatars, which, in fact, is only a stage of a centuries-old, complex historical process. Source: https://culture.voicecrimea.com.ua/en/ethnogenesis-of-the-crimean-tatars/[/i]
Source: https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/697542



Quoting Apollodorus
As for claims that “Crimean Tatars have nowhere else to go than Crimea”, they are complete nonsense given that most Crimean Tatars emigrated (note, emigrated, not “expelled”) to Turkey between 1783 and 1897, thus settling that question of their own accord.


Really?! You certainly mean: not expelled, but emigrated to avoid Russian imperialistic oppression that you should oppose, right?!
The Crimean Tatar diaspora dates back to the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 1783, after which Crimean Tatars emigrated in a series of waves spanning the period from 1783 to 1917. The diaspora was largely the result of the destruction of their social and economic life as a consequence of integration into the Russian Empire .
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatar_diaspora
And the phrase “Crimean Tatars have nowhere else to go than Crimea” is again a way to stress that Crimean Tatars are indigenous to Crimea and would prefer to stay in their homeland without suffering oppressive regimes like the one Russian imperialism is offering AND you should oppose!


Quoting Apollodorus
The way I see it, the correct application of the principle that “every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners” is not for Crimean Tatars to join Turkey – as Turkey itself is territory illegally taken from Greeks, Armenians, Kurds, and others – but to return to Turkic countries in Central Asia.


What on earth did you just write?! You previously offered evidence in support to the claim that Crimean Tatars are neither Mongols nor the historical Tatar-Mongols, and now you want to move them to Central Asia?! How on earth would you do so?! You mean that Russian imperialists as privileged heir of the Greek civilisation and holy custodian of the Indo-European heritage should impose a racial test among Crimean Tatars and expel the ones who show more than 50% Mongoloid race owners DESPITE THE FACT THAT the ethnogenesis of the Crimean Tatars proves that Crimean Tatars as indigenous to Crimea also by assimilating Indo-European Caucasoid people and that no western Indo-European Caucasoid ancestors can claim to have colonised the entire Crimea prior to Turkic people migrations AND THEREFORE they should be considered the rightful owners of Crimea ?! Are you crazy?!… And racist?!
(BTW I guess all the Indo-European Caucasoid that colonised America should be resettled in Europe or, even better, crammed into the Caucasian area where all the Indo-European came from, right?)

Quoting Apollodorus
Stalin’s resettlement of Crimea’s Tatar minority (about 20% of the total population) to their original homeland in Central Asia was unfair on those Tatars who were actually European, and this was readily acknowledged by the Russian authorities who eventually gave resettled Tatars the right to return.


Oh I see, they acknowledged it, and that’s why the Russians are still oppressing Crimean Tatars in Crimea, right?! It makes perfect sense! Moreover you previously argued in favour of resettling Crimean Tatars back again to Central Asia as your theory demands, so Russians are wrong in giving resettled Tatars the right to return to Crimea, they should listen to you, right?!




Quoting Apollodorus
To the extent that it was arbitrary, that resettlement scheme was a mistake. It is one thing to relocate [i]genuine Turkic Crimeans[/I] to Central Asia where they had come from. It is quite another to send Greeks who had lived in Crimea since the 7th century BC to Kazakhstan!


Quoting Apollodorus
This is why, personally, I’m against forced deportations and I think diplomatic solutions backed by financial incentives are to be preferred. But the process has to start with correctly identifying who should relocate. Otherwise, how are we going to know which territory rightfully belongs to whom?



Then start by defining what “[I]genuine[/i] Turkic Crimeans” and “Greeks” mean, because as suggested in the ICCRIMEA article, since Crimean Tatars are ethnically intermixed, one can not send 28% of Northern Asian genes to Central Asia, if it makes sense to you, right?!
BTW, you are against imperialism, against forced deportation and for economic incentives, but Crimean Tatars didn’t see anything like that in centuries of russification of Crimea, did they? Besides how is this putative attitude of yours square with what you were claiming previously: “In expelling some of the Mongols of Crimea and resettling them in Central Asia from where they had invaded, Russia arguably redressed a historic injustice”. Indeed, why would economic-civic oppression and deportation of Crimean Tatars be illegitimate if it’s matter of rectifying a horrible historical injustice that the Russians suffered for centuries?!



Quoting Apollodorus
In the Crimean context, the problem seems to be not as much genetic as CULTURAL. The genetic evidence indicates that “Tatars” are mostly Indo-Europeans (Caucasoids) who were forced to speak Tatar (a Turkic language) and to convert to Islam under Mongol-Turkic rule. In other words, they assumed an alien cultural and linguistic identity under foreign occupation and this identity is now blown out of proportion for political ends.
And if the problem is cultural, one logical solution would be not to resettle Crimeans of European descent but to encourage them to shed their false Turkic or “Tatar” identity.


What on earth did you just write?! To me, if your “logic” solution is to deport some and brainwash the rest, the problem is in your preposterous theory of the rightful owners grounded on all sorts of historical, genetic, linguistic and ideological misconceptions. Ironically, even within your own misconceptions, you finally rejected your own previous claims by supporting that Crimean Tatars are, mostly, not the Mongols of Crimea and do not need any resettling!
What is still missing in your racist views is an argument to support the idea that the Turkic cultural identity is a false identity while the biological identity is a true identity (considering that is also based on obsolete racial theories like the distinction of Mongoloid or Caucasoid races)!
BTW shouldn’t Christianism be abandoned since it stemmed from Semitic people while true Westerners are Indo-European Caucasoid non-Semitic (Arians?) people?


Quoting Apollodorus
In any case, Tatar presence in Crimea does NOT show that “Crimea belongs to Ukraine”!


Neither the opposite though, at least until you can provide a genetic study of the Crimean Tatars that proves there is no relevant genetic link between them and Ukrainians’ ancestors.
Still, unfortunately, this claim of yours is and has always been absolutely non pertinent to address my objections, because I talked about the Crimean Tatars to question your theory of “the rightful owners” and conclude not that Crimea belongs to Ukrainians, but that - according to your own theory of the rightful owners - the Crimean Tatars should most likely be considered the rightful owners of Crimea as indigenous people of Crimea, not the Russians! Ukrainians acknowledged this on legal grounds, while Russians are still oppressing Crimean Tatars.


Quoting Apollodorus
Yet the Natoist argument seems to be as follows:

A. Crimea is “Tatar”.
B. Tatars are “Ukrainians”.
C. Therefore Crimea is Ukrainian.
D. And Ukraine is Western.
E. Therefore Ukraine and Crimea belong to America and its NATO Empire.
F. But Russia doesn’t think that Crimea and Ukraine belong to America.
G. Therefore Russia must be destroyed so that it never again deviates from what America says the world should think.


Who on earth is making this Natoist argument?! I never made, implied nor suggested such a shitty argument! There is not even any remote resemblance to what I would be capable of arguing! So either you are bizarrely confusing me with other (imaginary?) interlocutors or you are blatantly making things up as the worst Russian trolls do, maybe with the intent to redirect people’s attention far from your preposterous racist theory of the rightful owners and resume your filo-Russian propaganda routine!


Quoting Apollodorus
If America is prepared to do this to Russia, how can other countries be sure that it won’t do the same to them?
Moreover, the destruction of Russia is likely to result in Turkey, China, Iran, and other powers trying to fill the vacuum and potentially lead to decades of instability and war in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere.
Eastern Europe is already heading for a serious recession, probably to be soon followed by Western Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Economic hardship and wars will result in millions of refugees fleeing to Western Europe and other parts of the First World. These are enormous problems that America has created but is unwilling and unable to solve.
America has a long and well-documented history of “solving” some problems whilst creating many other new ones. We need only look at Iraq where they removed Saddam Hussein but created ideal conditions for Islamic State a.k.a. ISIS to emerge - who turned out to be far worse than Saddam.
In these circumstances, European and other leaders around the world may start asking themselves whether it isn’t time to break free from America’s policy of world domination in which the only thing that matters are the interests of US oil and defense corporations.
IMO a far more balanced – and philosophically acceptable – position would be to follow the lead of less-ideologically-committed analysts, and advise Ukraine to (a) stay neutral and (b) cede some territory, e.g., Crimea, to Russia.
As Henry Kissinger has said, “the United States needs to avoid treating Russia as an aberrant to be taught rules of conduct established by Washington.” I think philosophers would do well to consider the implications of refusing to follow Kissinger’s advice.


This is the best example of diversion with random anti-NATO and filo-Russian propaganda which bears no relation whatsoever to what I was disputing wrt Crimean Tatar issue. Is this really your best to prove you are not biased toward Russian propaganda?!

What an epic failure are you, dude!
Isaac May 25, 2022 at 17:37 #700631
Quoting Olivier5
Maybe what you confuse with glee here, is hope.


OK.

A little humility might be in order recognising it's other people's lives you're hopefully anticipating the consequences of risking.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 17:43 #700632
Quoting Isaac
A little humility might be in order recognising it's other people's lives you're hopefully anticipating the consequences of risking.


I just hope they win. Rest assured it's a humble hope.
Isaac May 25, 2022 at 17:57 #700642
Quoting Olivier5
I just hope they win.


No. We all hope they win. You additionally hope they 'teach Russia a lesson'. I don't give a fuck about teaching Russia a lesson because doing so at the expense of other people's lives is a despicable objective.
jorndoe May 25, 2022 at 18:00 #700646
Quoting Isaac
I'm not quite sure what you're trying to say here


It was fairly straightforward. I thought your response to Reply to Olivier5, missed a bit, so I added it.

[sup](I guess some may knowingly walk into a minefield and expect pity when a leg is blown off, others may or may not feel schadenfreude if those unfortunate people walked in there to blow others up. I'll abstain, but that's just me.)[/sup]

Don't bomb others' home. If you do, then don't expect them to just lie down and die. The Ukrainians aren't anyway.

Isaac May 25, 2022 at 18:13 #700651
Quoting jorndoe
others may or may not feel schadenfreude if those unfortunate people walked in there to blow others up


It's not about coincidental schadenfreude though, it's about the active encouragement with schadenfreude as a goal. The difference (in your analogy) is between smirking as someone who shouldn't be in your front yard steps on a rake, and actively promoting the leaving of more and more lethal rakes, in someone else's backyard, at great expense to the landowner just for the pleasure of seeing the intruder get their comeuppance.

The costs of Ukraine's defence are enormous, both in terms of lives, and in terms of future economic devastation. Neither you, nor any of the other cheerleaders here are going to have to suffer that. Ukrainians are. There are clearly two options available.

1. Ukraine does the minimum required to ensure a future they can tolerate.
2. Ukraine inflicts the maximum damage on their antagonists.

Ukraine will do whatever they choose, we can support (and encourage) either depending, obviously, on what we think best.

Supporting (1) would be to maximise diplomatic efforts, maximise non-military solutions, stop fighting at the smallest opportunity from where diplomacy might be ale to take over.

Supporting (2) would be to keep framing the whole war as 'teaching Russia a lesson', exaggerating the necessity of driving them off, minimising the likelihood that any non-military solution will work, maximising the evils of the antagonist and minimising those of the defenders.

I think doing (2) whilst not actually being prepared to fight that fight oneself is morally reprehensible.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 18:32 #700662
Quoting Isaac
We all hope they win. You additionally hope they 'teach Russia a lesson'. I don't give a fuck about teaching Russia a lesson because doing so at the expense of other people's lives is a despicable objective.


There's nothing "additional" here. It makes no practical difference if the Ukrainians win or the Russians lose. And if the Russians lose, one can only hope that they will learn a lesson from it.
Isaac May 25, 2022 at 19:00 #700675
Quoting Olivier5
There's nothing "additional" here.


It's exactly the 'additional' element about which the entire disagreement here revolves. As I said above, there are two options - one is to end hostilities at the earliest opportunity from which diplomacy might take over, the other is end hostilities at the last possible opportunity, inflicting the maximum damage to the antagonist. Concerning yourself (and your rhetoric) with the damage inflicted supports the second. Concerning ourselves with the costs of war supports the first.

Our entire disagreement here is about the morality of supporting either approach.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 19:09 #700684
Quoting Isaac
there are two options - one is to end hostilities at the earliest opportunity from which diplomacy might take over, the other is end hostilities at the last possible opportunity, inflicting the maximum damage to the antagonist. Concerning yourself (and your rhetoric) with the damage inflicted supports the second. Concerning ourselves with the costs of war supports the first.

Our entire disagreement here is about the morality of supporting either approach.


Is it? I personally see no objection to Ukraine signing any peace treaty they want, at any point. I've said so already so I am a bit surprised by your apparent confusion.
Isaac May 25, 2022 at 19:11 #700685
Quoting Olivier5
I personally see no objection to Ukraine signing any peace treaty they want, at any point. I've said so already so I am a bit surprised by your apparent confusion.


Who said anything about anyone objecting to the signing of a peace treaty? I'm talking about what you support, not what you fail to object to.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 19:14 #700686
Reply to Isaac I did. I said that I support the right of the Ukrainian leadership to decide their own peace terms when and how they see fit.
Isaac May 25, 2022 at 19:16 #700689
Quoting Olivier5
I said that I support the right of the Ukrainian leadership to decide their own peace terms when and how they see fit.


Yep, as I said, I'm talking about what you support, not what you fail to object to. Supporting someone's right to do something is the same as just not objecting to it.

I support your right to vote, I have not the slightest care whether you actually do so.

A campaigner for minimum wage supports fair pay, a campaigner for laissez faire supports the right of employers to pay minimum wage if they see fit.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 19:31 #700699
Quoting Isaac
I support your right to vote


Thank you so much. Do you additionally support the right of Ukrainians to vote? If yes, you will agree with me and many others that the freely elected and hence legitimate government of Ukraine has the right and the duty to defend the lives and well being of the country's population, and to decide which peace they want, based not only on a consideration of immediate outcomes, tomorrow or next month, but also on whether or not a peace deal could be trusted to work in the long term.

Do take the long term into consideration. From a long term perspective, the idea of "teaching R a lesson" is NOT to harm them for the sake of it. It's about deterrence. The idea is to lower the chances of a future war of aggression from Russia, and therefore intended to reduce future damage inflicted by future wars to the Ukrainian people.

This, the Ukrainian leadership understands very well. And I think it's a legitimate war goal.
Isaac May 25, 2022 at 19:37 #700705
Quoting Olivier5
Do you additionally support the right of Ukrainians to vote? If yes, you will agree with me and many others that the freely elected and hence legitimate government of Ukraine has the right and the duty to defend the lives and well being of the country's population, and to decide which peace they want


Yeah, and we're back into your obvious nonsense that we've been through before. Entertaining though your mental gymnastics are, there's little to be gained from seeing you do the same trick twice. I want something new at least.
Olivier5 May 25, 2022 at 19:40 #700707
Reply to Isaac Of course we've been through this before. You already got your little games debunked and your truculent questions answered. Your waste of bandwidth is noted.
Apollodorus May 25, 2022 at 22:48 #700747
Quoting neomac
This is the best example of diversion with random anti-NATO and filo-Russian propaganda which bears no relation whatsoever to what I was disputing wrt Crimean Tatar issue.


It doesn't say anywhere that people aren't allowed to make anti-NATO arguments!

As for your "disputing wrt Crimean Tatar issue" you could have saved yourself that long and incoherent rant because it looks like you don't have a clue what you're disputing! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

You claimed that "Crimean Tatars became the majority" and then backpedaled by saying "I never said that the Tatars were the majority"!

So, were they the majority or not???

And, obviously, in order to even discuss Crimean Tatars and your spurious claim that "Crimea is owned by Tatars therefore it belongs to Ukraine (or America?)", we need to establish what a Crimean Tatar is.

My definition of Tatar is identical to the accepted definition in the literature, i.e., a member of several Turkic ethnic groups speaking Turkic languages and living mainly in Russia, including Crimea.

Turkic people are defined as "descended from agricultural communities in Northeastern China and wider Northeast Asia, who moved westwards into Mongolia in the late 3rd millennium BC" (Wikipedia). This is scholarly opinion corroborated by genetic, historical, and archaeological evidence, not a "myth".

This is why they are referred to as "Mongoloid", because they are related to Mongols and some even look like Mongols. "Mongoloid" is the term used by scholars:

Anthropologically, about 80% of the Volga Tatars belong today to Caucasoids and 20% to Mongoloids (Khalikov 1978).


Erdogan calls them "Crimean Turks". How is that better than "Crimean Mongols"???

Obviously, there must be some Crimean Mongols as Crimea was invaded and occupied by the Mongols. But I didn't say ALL Crimean Tatars are Mongols. On the contrary, my point was that the genetic evidence suggests that many of them are NOT Mongols, NOT Turkic, and therefore NOT Tatars, depending on their genetic makeup. That's precisely what people make DNA tests for, to establish their ethnic and geographical roots.

In contrast, your "definition" is more than useless as it is totally meaningless and incapable of identifying a Crimean Tatar, or anything else for that matter!!! :rofl:

If you want to know what a real Crimean Tatar looks (and sounds) like, try this:

(Scroll down to "A speaker of Crimean Tatar, recorded in Romania".)

Crimean Tatar language – Wikipedia

Or the same clip on Youtube:

WIKITONGUES: Neceadin speaking Crimean Tatar - Youtube

The Britannica article that you pretend not to find says very clearly:

Some Islamic states, such as the Ottoman Empire, the Crimean Khanate, and the Sokoto caliphate, must be termed slave societies because slaves there were very important numerically as well as a focus of the polities’ energies.

More long-term was the slavery practiced in the Crimean Khanate between roughly 1475 and its liquidation by the Russian empress Catherine the Great in 1783. The Crimean Tatar society was based on raiding the neighbouring Slavic and Caucasian sedentary societies and selling the captives into the slave markets of Eurasia.

[u]Approximately 75 percent of the Crimean population consisted of slaves or freedmen[u], and much of the free population was highly predatory, engaged either in the gathering of slaves or in the selling of them. It is known that for every slave the Crimeans sold in the market, they killed outright several other people during their raids, and a couple more died on the way to the slave market.


Slavery - Britannica

What makes you think that I must prefer your NATO propaganda to mainstream sources???

And NO, your Tatar witness does NOT support your claim that Tatars are "indigenous to Crimea". Her DNA is as follows:

28% Northern Asian = Siberian (Mongol/Turk) = Tatar
20% Mediterranean = Greek/Italian
22% Northern European = Scandinavian? Baltic?
20% Middle Eastern = ? (Iranian? Turkish? Jewish? Egyptian/Arab?)

In case you forgot, Crimea is in Eastern Europe. There is no Eastern European DNA in your "evidence"!

Incidentally, note how she conveniently leaves out the Taurian people who were the original, indigenous inhabitants of Crimea!

Also note how she conveniently leaves out the Crimean Greeks who have lived in Crimea from the 7th century BC, i.e., many centuries before the Tatars.

And note that she mentions four Turkic groups among her ancestors, which amounts to an admission to being at least in part of Turkic, i.e., Mongoloid-Siberian descent.

But when she lists her DNA makeup, it turns out that she is only 28% Turkic and 42% European, the rest being “Middle Eastern” which could be anything!

And still nothing to specifically link her to Crimea as one might expect in someone that is supposedly "indigenous" to Crimea. So, you've got nothing, really.

That's why I prefer to go by proper scientific publications than your cut-and-paste stuff randomly collected from activist sources .... :smile:

Quoting Olivier5
What is really easy, down right facile, is to be dismissive and contemptuous of people defending their country.


I think more "downright facile" is to claim that stating that Ukrainians are "bankrolled, armed, trained, encouraged, and supported by the world's largest military organization" is "facile".

In the real world, resilience is very short-lived without cash, weapons, ammo, etc.

In any case, it should be obvious that the longer the war drags on with US assistance, the more people will die on both sides. In other words, Europeans killing Europeans for America ….
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 06:02 #700863
Quoting Apollodorus
In any case, it should be obvious that the longer the war drags on with US assistance, the more people will die on both sides.


That's what wars do, indeed. What else is new?
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 06:11 #700866
Quoting Olivier5
That's what wars do, indeed. What else is new?


No one's commenting about the novelty of it. We're commenting about the ethics of it.
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 06:41 #700874
Reply to Isaac You are commenting on the ethics of war, now? Let me guess: you think war is bad.

What else is new?
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 06:58 #700879
Quoting Olivier5
You are commenting on the ethics of war, now?


Not just 'war'. This war. Yes, it's always been about the ethics, not just 'now'. As I've said a dozen times none of us are qualified to offer an opinion on the technicalities so it's pointless to act as if we could. What we can discuss is the ethics, the politics... That, we are perfectly as qualified as any other to discuss.

The point being made right now is that supporting the continuation of war is unethical. War is something which should be avoided at the first opportunity, not encouraged until the last.

Your rhetoric of 'teaching lessons', minimising the risks of arms support, heroising those who fight, demonising those who advocate diplomacy... is unethical because it supports war beyond the first opportunity at which it could be avoided.

Your repeated attempts to pretend you're nothing but a dispassionate observer, reporting the facts and leaving all decisions up to the Ukrainians are transparent as attempts to simply dodge the ethical question.
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 07:15 #700900
Reply to Isaac What's unethical is to spread lies. So stop it.

Where have I disparaged diplomatic efforts, ever?
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 07:30 #700903
Quoting Olivier5
Where have I disparaged diplomatic efforts, ever?


Who said anything about disparaging diplomatic efforts? There's a quote function here for a reason. Quote the section of my post you consider to be a lie. I know how much you love the old "liar" dodge, but some minimal effort to actually find a lie is not too much to ask surely?
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 07:56 #700911
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/23/henry-kissinger-warns-against-defeat-russia-western-unity-sanctions/

How psychopathic do you have to be to be more Hawkish than Henry fucking Kissinger?
ssu May 26, 2022 at 08:46 #700931
Quoting Isaac
Your singling out of Russian foreign policy as being "all about control and influence" was simply wrong. It's no more so than most other powerful countries. The difference between NATO and the Warsaw Pact has nothing to do with it.

From the political history of my country, I can really see that this isn't the case. Russia is a genuinely different actor than let's say the UK, France, the US or even China.

The difference between NATO and the Warsaw Pact has everything to do with it. It shows in the most clearest way the differences.
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 08:57 #700935
Reply to ssu

You're still talking about methods when the comment was about objectives. Russia clearly has no greater an objective of "control and influence" than America. Gods! If America weren't aiming for "control and influence" then the almost global level of "control and influence" they have acquired (apparently by chance!) must have come as a tremendous shock to them.

American culture, industry, military and politics is present in one form or another in every country in the world. Dominant in most. Russian culture, industry, military and politics holds sway in a very narrow band of contested countries at its borders.

Unless you're suggesting that situation came about entirely by luck, then its absolutely unarguable that America has sought "control and influence" to no lesser, if not a greater, extent than Russia.

Even somewhere like Finland. Take a serious look at your financial institutions, your corporate governance, your media... and tell me exactly how that's more controlled by Russia than by the US. I'll eat my hat if Black Rock and Vanguard don't own at least half the companies in Finland.
ssu May 26, 2022 at 09:04 #700936
Quoting Isaac
1. Ukraine does the minimum required to ensure a future they can tolerate.
2. Ukraine inflicts the maximum damage on their antagonists.

Ukraine will do whatever they choose, we can support (and encourage) either depending, obviously, on what we think best.

Supporting (1) would be to maximise diplomatic efforts, maximise non-military solutions, stop fighting at the smallest opportunity from where diplomacy might be ale to take over.

But this doesn't make sense. Russia is attacking in Ukraine, in the Donbas, right now.

What on Earth is for Ukraine to "stop fighting at the smallest opportunity" when the other side is attacking you? At least you should have some stalemate where Russian's can see they aren't making progress with continuing the attack.

The only way for Ukraine to get a peace agreement with Russia is when Russia cannot gain it's objectives through military force and it is worse for Russia to continue the war than to have a peace agreement. And likely Ukraine has to at least accept that it has lost Crimea, which will be a huge letdown for the Ukrainian people who likely won't know the real situation on the battlefield.

Making this about all about Ukraine is simply logically wrong. Both sides have to make the conclusion that a ceasefire is better than continuing the war. Hence you have to look at this from both sides, not just Ukraine.

Isaac May 26, 2022 at 09:12 #700938
Quoting ssu
What on Earth is for Ukraine to "stop fighting at the smallest opportunity" when the other side is attacking you?


Concede the independence of Dombas and Crimea, and the independence from NATO. Then deal with their independent governance via diplomatic means. It's not complicated.

Quoting ssu
The only way for Ukraine to get a peace agreement with Russia is when Russia cannot gain it's objectives through military force and it is worse for Russia to continue the war than to have a peace agreement.


The bizarre, near maniacal, certainty you have about Russia's 'objectives', is not shared by...well, anyone rational. The rest of us take a more circumspect approach to what it is that they might concede to in negotiations.

Quoting ssu
Ukraine has to at least accept that it has lost Crimea, which will be a huge letdown for the Ukrainian people


I think we've roundly established that invading a country just because you want it back under your control is wrong. It's wrong if Russia do it, its wrong if Ukraine do it. Crimea is now under Russian control. Invading it to get it back is warmongering. The correct course of action is sanctions and political activism to allow the people of Crimea to elect the leadership they want.

If we haven't established that using tanks to effect political change is a bad idea by now then there's little hope for the world.
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 09:26 #700941
Quoting ssu
At least you should have some stalemate where Russian's can see they aren't making progress with continuing the attack.

The only way for Ukraine to get a peace agreement with Russia is when Russia cannot gain it's objectives through military force and it is worse for Russia to continue the war than to have a peace agreement.


This incoherent double standard again. Is Russia losing really badly or not? Make up you mind.

When you want to advocate further arms sales, you claim Russia are useless, losing horribly. Then when is comes to joining NATO, Russia are a force to be reckoned with again. Then when assessing objectives, Russia are back to being useless, couldn't hold the ground they wanted. Then when the idea of negotiated peace is raised, Russia are back to winning again, nothing for them to gain by a peace settlement...
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 09:28 #700942
Quoting Isaac
Who said anything about disparaging diplomatic efforts?


You did.

Quoting Isaac
demonising those who advocate diplomacy.


That was disingenous. Nobody here has ever demonised any diplomacy advocate. You are inventing your own debate, obsessed as you are with pointing fingers at other posters.

Calm down already. What we do here is called a conversation, not a war.
ssu May 26, 2022 at 09:30 #700943
Quoting Isaac
You're still talking about methods when the comment was about objectives. Russia clearly has no greater an objective of "control and influence" than America.

Wrong. Methods do matter. In fact, it's all about those methods.

The US hasn't approached every other country in the world as it has gone with socialist Cuba. It hasn't tried to poison or kill the Canadian prime minister. It hasn't sponsored a group of Canadian militants and pushed them over the border to start a guerilla campaign to overthrough the Canadian government. It hasn't put stiff sanctions towards Canadia. It hasn't thought about invading Canada. All that it has done towards Castro's Cuba. US-Cuban relations don't depict all of the relations the US has with other countries.

Hence if your way of gaining that "control and influence" is by creating a mutual defense organization where you assist the countries if they are attacked, where countries can choose if they participate and with what kind of force to your endeavors, where other members than you have a say. Many country may like that deal and join voluntarily your organization. And naturally you will have amoung your citizens a debate just why are carrying so much weight for these other countries.

Quoting Isaac
Concede the independence of Dombas and Crimea, and the independence from NATO. Then deal with their independent governance via diplomatic means. It's not complicated.

Wrong again. Crimea isn't independent. Russia sees Crimea as part of itself. Get the facts straight, Isaac!

And how do you do it now? Just admit that hey, you are open to give everything this away right now, immediately. That works wonders for morale for the Ukrainians now defending the Russian attack, I guess.

And if as the response Russia says, nah... we would like Odessa too. At least to get the Novorossiya. And then what? Wait for the next time that Russia invades after it has restocked in equipment and trained new batch of soldiers. Come to finish you let's say in 2030?

Quoting Isaac
The bizarre, near maniacal, certainty you have about Russia's 'objectives', is not shared by...well, anyone rational. The rest of us take a more circumspect approach to what it is that they might concede to in negotiations.

I think Putin has made those objectives quite clear. Not only the Donbas, but the demilitarization of Ukraine and of course the denazification. Or you disagree?
ssu May 26, 2022 at 09:34 #700946
Quoting Isaac
This incoherent double standard again. Is Russia losing really badly or not? Make up you mind.

1) Russia has had losses. It has had to limit it's objectives.
2) Yet it is making some progress, even if little.
3) It is extremely unlikely that it can now military overtake the whole country.
4) What will happen in peace talks or with a peace agreement is still very much open.
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 11:02 #700966
Quoting Olivier5
What we do here is called a conversation, not a war.


Thinking of it, the Putinistas may be under the impression that their esteemed contributions here are part of the war, part of a battle for public opinion.

This battle did take place, but it's over now. It's been won by Ukraine and there's nothing the Putinistas can do about it, except cry and bitch.

Hence the aggressive tone of @Isaac, hard to understand but logical in his position: he's like one of these Japanese soldiers stranded alone on some Pacific island, still fighting a long lost war years after 1945.
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 11:22 #700967
Quoting Olivier5
Nobody here has ever demonised any diplomacy advocate.


Myself, Boethius, benkei, streetlight among others have advocated diplomacy. You've demonised all. Accusations of working for the FSB, supporting terrorism, condoning rape etc. It is an indisputable fact the you have demonised posters here who advocate diplomacy. The latest of which is referring to them as...

Quoting Olivier5
...the Putinistas


You really are stupid aren't you. In the same posts as you're trying to claim you don't demonise, you refer to anyone with a different opinion to you as supporters of a war criminal. Do you even think for a second before spewing out whatever crap it next occurs to you to write?
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 11:29 #700969
Quoting ssu
Wrong. Methods do matter. In fact, it's all about those methods.


Who said methods didn't matter. The question was about objectives. A simple "yes" would have sufficed.

Quoting ssu
Wrong again. Crimea isn't independent.


Did I say it was? I suggested it might be a negotiating concession, not an existent state of affairs. Your reading comprehension is appalling.

Quoting ssu
Just admit that hey, you are open to give everything this away right now, immediately. That works wonders for morale for the Ukrainians now defending the Russian attack, I guess.


So? The future of Western Europe is decided by what's best for the morale of the Ukrainian army? Why?


Quoting ssu
then what? Wait for the next time that Russia invades after it has restocked in equipment and trained new batch of soldiers. Come to finish you let's say in 2030?


Yes. That's exactly it. Because fighting a devastating war because you think someone might otherwise attack you in ten year's time is monstrous.

Quoting ssu
I think Putin has made those objectives quite clear. Not only the Donbas, but the demilitarization of Ukraine and of course the denazification. Or you disagree?


No. This is a negotiation.

Reply to ssu

What remains inconsistent is the idea of a Russia both immanently about to lose and one which would have nothing to gain from a peace deal.
ssu May 26, 2022 at 11:42 #700972
Quoting Isaac
So? The future of Western Europe is decided by what's best for the morale of the Ukrainian army? Why?

Zelensky has already made the proposal of going back to the pre 24th February limits, which means that Russia gets Crimea and the part of Donbas they already had.

Hence it's the Ukrainians who already have made concessions here. Have they have to give more to an imperialist aggressor here or what?

This war was started by Russia and Russia can also stop this war of aggression. Ukraine cannot stop it, or then perhaps accept terms that Putin wants. Hence it's a bit odd just to focus on Ukraine.
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 11:51 #700976
Quoting Isaac
Myself, Boethius, benkei, streetlight among others have advocated diplomacy. You've demonised all. Accusations of working for the FSB, supporting terrorism, condoning rape etc.


I've not criticized any of you BECAUSE you advocated diplomacy, to the extent that you have actually done so, which is unclear.

None of you have advocated a specific diplomatic approach or solution.

Vague gesticulations towards it, yes, but I haven't seen anything serious and precise. And I suspect that these gesticulations -- including your whining here -- are part of an effort to make others look bad. It's a 'demonising tool' and nothing more

IFF you start to propose specific approaches and ideas for a peace process, I'm a taker. But if all you want is to posture as the most morally woke TPFer, don't expect me to be impressed.
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 12:11 #700981
Not sure that Draghi's initiative is going anywhere, but at least he's trying. What do the pretend peace lovers here think of it?



Russia has not seen Italian peace plan for Ukraine
Reuters

May 24 (Reuters) - Russia has not yet seen an Italian peace plan for Ukraine, but hopes to receive it through diplomatic channels, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.

Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio gave the broad outlines of the plan last week and said that he had discussed it with United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres during a visit to New York.

"We haven't seen it yet, we hope it will be delivered to us through diplomatic channels and we will familiarise ourselves with it," Peskov said.

The plan would involve international groups such as the United Nations, the European Union and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe which would act as facilitators to organise localised ceasefires initially, Di Maio told a news conference in Italy last Friday. [...]

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, was dismissive of the plan and other such initiatives by the West. [...]

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Italy's broad ruling coalition is divided over the issue of whether to supply more arms to Ukraine.
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 12:13 #700983
Quoting ssu
Zelensky has already made the proposal of going back to the pre 24th February limits, which means that Russia gets Crimea and the part of Donbas they already had.


Good for him. I'm talking to you, not Zelensky.

Quoting ssu
it's the Ukrainians who already have made concessions here. Have they have to give more to an imperialist aggressor here or what?


As far as I'm aware Russia has not made any greater demands than that. What's needed are some independent authorities willing to help broker such a deal. If America weren't hell bent on throwing Ukrainian bodies under Russian tanks a deal might well have been made already. What's needed is the mechanism, the involvement of agencies outside of the conflict. Which is why it's so important to talk about their role in this, to put pressure on them to do the right thing here.

If Ukraine, together with a couple of third parties (say the US and China) are actively willing to make a deal but Russia refuse, then we can bleat about how they've no incentive to stop.

Right now we have the last official word from Russia being that they demand an independent Dombas, Crimea, and no NATO membership. We have Ukraine offering much the same. So what's missing? Any serious united international help to get them together.
Apollodorus May 26, 2022 at 14:09 #701009
Quoting Christoffer
There's nothing wrong with Marxism as a system and Russian communism was the Lenin/Stalin corruption of it.


How do you know that “there is nothing wrong with Marxism as a system”, when Marxism has never been implemented as a system aside from in places like Russia, China, and North Korea?

The fact is that Russia is different and it has the right to be different.

Russia’s ideology is a matter for the Russian people, not for you.

I don’t see how Western ideologies like Communism, Nazism, Imperialism, Unipolarism, Natoism, etc., are “superior” to what you call “Russian ideology”.

If NATO can bomb and invade other countries, so can Russia.

Russia would have had no reason to invade Ukraine if it hadn’t been for NATO’s expansionism.

Why are you so concerned about Russia’s “ideology”?

When did Russia last invade your country?

Has your country never invaded anyone?

Now that Britain has promised to protect you and you’re joining NATO (with Turkey’s help :wink:), why are you still afraid of Russia?

Plus, there is nothing you can do about it anyway, so what’s your point? Who are you trying to convince, Western Russophobes and NATO jihadis who already think that Russia is “evil”? :grin:

Quoting Olivier5
That's what wars do, indeed. What else is new?


What seems to be “new” (at least to some here) is that there is more than one side to every conflict. One side is that Ukrainians are defending their country. Another side is that Russians are defending what they believe to be their country. And a third side is that Europeans are killing Europeans for the sake of America and its NATO Empire.

IMO it seems unphilosophical to take a one-sided view of the conflict.

Incidentally, the way things currently stand, the most likely scenario is that Russia will be able to hang on to Crimea and the Donbas. So, it’s difficult to see what exactly Zelensky is trying to achieve. Arguably, he’s waiting for more heavy weapons from the West, but (a) that requires people who know how to operate them and (b) Russia still has a number of options available.

Zelensky says he is “ready to talk to Putin” and is “willing to leave Crimea out of the talks”.

But:

He wants Russia to withdraw “from the territory it has occupied since 24 February” as a precondition for the talks.

and

He “would not compromise over Ukraine’s territorial integrity”.

So, what exactly does he want to talk about???

He talks like someone who either doesn't know what he's talking about or is just being dishonest. He has said things before that turned out to be untrue. For example, when he said that everyone should calm down because there wasn't going to be an invasion, when he said that the Ukrainian troops ensconced in the Azovstal works will never surrender but they did surrender, etc.

My guess is that he says what he's told to say by his US and British "advisers" to whom he now owes zillions of dollars .... :smile:

Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 15:11 #701026
Quoting Apollodorus
Another side is that Russians are defending what they believe to be their country.


If they believed so, they wouldn't bomb civilians so much.

They just believe that they are entitled to bomb anyone, including their own people. Quoting Apollodorus
IMO it seems unphilosophical to take a one-sided view of the conflict.


In my opinion, it is unprincipled not to do so.
Tate May 26, 2022 at 15:58 #701051
Once Russia withdraws, how will Ukraine be different? Will it be more democratic or more authoritarian? Will it keep a standing army?
RogueAI May 26, 2022 at 16:46 #701082
https://www.anneapplebaum.com/2022/05/23/defeating-putin-is-the-only-route-to-peace-in-ukraine/
Streetlight May 26, 2022 at 17:04 #701093
Applebaum is an insane person who has been preaching for - in her words - "total war" with Russia for nearly 10 years. A neocon warmongerer only slightly less dangerous than Putin because she happens not to be a head of state.
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 17:05 #701094
Reply to RogueAI

Woah, a pro war puff piece in The Atlantic. What a surprise!

The same Atlantic whose Editor said, of the Iraq war...

Saddam Hussein is uniquely evil, the only ruler in power today—and the first one since Hitler—to commit chemical genocide. Is that enough of a reason to remove him from power? I would say yes, if 'never again' is in fact actually to mean 'never again.'"


Sound at all familiar? Christ! It's unbelievable that idiots just lap this stuff up when they've barely done more than just change the names.
Streetlight May 26, 2022 at 17:07 #701095
Westerners can circulate literal war propaganda and then congratulate themselves on not being subject to propaganda.
RogueAI May 26, 2022 at 17:10 #701096
Quoting Streetlight
Applebaum is an insane person who has been preaching for - in her words - "total war" with Russia for nearly 10 years. A neocon warmongerer only slightly less dangerous than Putin because she happens not to be a head of state.


What part of her argument do you disagree with?
Streetlight May 26, 2022 at 17:11 #701097
Reply to RogueAI I don't assess propaganda I put it in the bin where it belongs.
RogueAI May 26, 2022 at 17:56 #701115
Streetlight May 26, 2022 at 17:58 #701117
No what's lame is cheerleading mass murder.
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 18:09 #701121
Super Mario keeps trying...

2 mins ago (17:53 GMT)

Italy aims to free grain exports blocked in Black Sea ports, Prime Minister Mario Draghi has told reporters following a phone call he held with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The first initiative one could begin to explore is to see whether a cooperation between Russia and Ukraine to unblock Black Sea ports could be built,” Draghi said.

Draghi said he would soon talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on this issue.
RogueAI May 26, 2022 at 18:28 #701125
"[Putin] also understands that if a democratic Ukraine is allowed to gain strength and prosper, it will likely inspire Russians to seek similar changes in their own country. In other words, he regards the existence of a free and democratic Ukraine as an existential threat to the future of his own autocratic regime."
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/05/26/the_putin_puzzle_why_is_the_russian_dictator_so_obsessed_with_ukraine_834318.html
RogueAI May 26, 2022 at 18:29 #701127
Reply to Olivier5 Aside from murdering Ukrainians, Russia is going to be responsible for the starvation of a whole lot of people.
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 18:57 #701137
Quoting RogueAI
Aside from murdering Ukrainians, Russia is going to be responsible for the starvation of a whole lot of people.


Or there's facts...

https://www.cgdev.org/cdi#/?adjusted=true

Commitment to development index. The United States is below Russia. But who cares about which country is actually responsible for mass starvation when you've got a warmongering narrative to feed.
RogueAI May 26, 2022 at 19:14 #701140
Reply to Olivier5
"On 24 April the head of the world’s largest ship manager, René Kofod-Olsen, urged Nato to provide naval escorts for commercial vessels passing through the Black Sea: “We should demand that our seafaring and marine traffic is being protected in international waters. I’m sure Nato and others have a role to play in the protection of the commercial fleet.”"

This is a good article about where things stand in Ukraine militarily, and the growing pressure for some kind of action to protect commercial food shipping. You can view the whole thing in incognito mode.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/05/black-sea-blockade-crimea
RogueAI May 26, 2022 at 19:15 #701141
Reply to Isaac I told you why I don't engage with you: you're dishonest.
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 19:58 #701147
Reply to RogueAI There was another similar call to break the blockade and get the grain out, posted by Reply to 180 Proof recently. It made a good case for it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/23/we-must-stop-letting-russia-define-the-terms-of-the-ukraine-crisis


This caught my attention:


US-supplied howitzers to Ukraine lack computers
(KYIV, Ukraine) — Dozens of artillery systems supplied by the United States to Ukraine were not fitted with advanced computer systems, which improve the efficiency and accuracy of the weapons, ABC News has learned.

The M777 155mm howitzers are now being used by the Ukrainian military in its war with Russia.

The Pentagon did not deny that the artillery pieces were supplied without the computers but said it had received “positive feedback” from the Ukrainians about the “precise and highly effective” weapons.

That positive sentiment was echoed by a Ukrainian politician, who spoke to ABC News on condition of anonymity. However, the politician also expressed frustration that the artillery pieces had not been the fitted with the digital computer systems. [...]

Howitzers without a computer system can still be fired accurately, using traditional methods to calculate the angle needed to hit a target. Modern computer systems, however, rule-out the possibility of human error.

Why the artillery pieces supplied to Ukraine did not have the digital targeting technology installed is unclear. The Pentagon said it would not discuss individual components “for operational security reasons.” [...]

A security expert, retired Colonel Steve Ganyard, said the United States had not sent the devices for fear that it might fall into the hands of the Russians. “In this case, they could not share the best of the United States,” he said.
Isaac May 26, 2022 at 20:05 #701150
Quoting RogueAI
told you why I don't engage with you: you're dishonest.


Not looking for engagement, just correcting your bullshit. The responsibility for the ensuing starvation is categorically the result of the underdevelopment-related vulnerability of these nations to fluctuations in imports for which Russia is far less responsible than America, or, even more so, Europe.
Apollodorus May 26, 2022 at 20:22 #701154
Quoting Olivier5
If they believed so, they wouldn't bomb civilians so much.


Depends. They could always say:

1. Civilians who have sided with NATO.

2. 150,000 got killed in America's jihad on Iraq. Russia hasn't killed anything in Ukraine that even remotely approaches that.

3. The Ukrainians are keeping their military casualties secret, but many more of their forces must have got killed than people believe. Of course, it serves NATO propaganda to make the world believe that Russians only kill civilians. But propaganda shouldn't be confused with facts.

4. Bombing civilians is considered acceptable in some parts of the world. Sometimes even in the West: Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Germany, etc.

5. That's how Russia fights. And Ukraine and its Western paymasters knew it perfectly well from the start.

As I say, giving Russia Crimea and the ethnic-Russian areas of Donbas, and staying out of NATO, would have been a small price to pay for peace. This is why I believe that Zelensky is being pushed by America and Britain to carry on and escalate in order to (1) promote the interests of Western defense industries and (2) weaken or destroy Russia to facilitate its takeover by the West (which is what they already tried to do in the 90's).
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 20:28 #701155
Reply to Apollodorus They could say any number of lies.
ssu May 26, 2022 at 20:45 #701161
Quoting Apollodorus
2. 150,000 got killed in America's jihad on Iraq. Russia hasn't killed anything in Ukraine that even remotely approaches that.

Not yet, at least.

But the numbers from Afghanistan, Syria and the two Chechen wars simply show that Russia doesn't care so much about civilian casualties. Actually the comparison between the casualty figures of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and the US in Afghanistan tell something. Russia uses extensively firepower and the morale is low as it doesn't take care of it's troops, so it hasn't been so surprising that the pictures from Ukraine have a resemblance to the pictures we saw from Chechnya decades ago.

(then)
User image

(now)
User image
User image
Apollodorus May 26, 2022 at 20:48 #701163
Quoting Isaac
The responsibility for the ensuing starvation is categorically the result of the underdevelopment-related vulnerability of these nations to fluctuations in imports for which Russia is far less responsible than America, or, even more so, Europe.


Starvation is, and has been, going on for decades. Millions died of starvation under British rule in India, Africa, Ireland ....

Timeline of major famines in India during British rule - Wikipedia

Great Famine (Ireland) - Wikipedia

The British era is significant because during this period a very large number of famines struck India. There is a vast literature on the famines in colonial British India. The mortality in these famines was excessively high and in some may have been increased by British policies. The mortality in the Great Bengal Famine of 1770 was between seven and 10 million; the Chalisa famine of 1783–1784, 11 million; Doji bara famine of 1791–1792, 11 million; and Agra famine of 1837–1838, 800,000. In the second half of the 19th-century large-scale excess mortality was caused by: Upper Doab famine of 1860–1861, 2 million; Great Famine of 1876–1878, 5.5 million; Indian famine of 1896–1897, 5 million; and Indian famine of 1899–1900, 1 million. The Bengal famine of 1943, which affected the Bengal region during wartime, was one of the major South Asian famines in which anywhere between 1.5 million and 3 million people died ...


Quoting Olivier5
They could say any number of lies.


Of course they could. And so could the West. As Churchill put it:

In time of war, when truth is so precious, it must be attended by a bodyguard of lies ...





Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 20:55 #701166
Reply to Apollodorus So why would we be bothered with your long numbered lists of lies they could say?
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 20:57 #701167
Reply to Isaac Do you reckon it may be possible to break the blockade?
Apollodorus May 26, 2022 at 20:59 #701168
Reply to Olivier5

It isn't "a list of lies", but of things they could say in response to your claim.

Whether (a) they're actually saying that and (b) they're lies, remains to be seen.
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 21:02 #701169
Quoting Apollodorus
Whether (a) they're actually saying that and (b) they're lies, remains to be seen.


I confirm I couldn't care less, then.
Apollodorus May 26, 2022 at 21:07 #701171
Reply to Olivier5

I didn't think you'd care about the truth. But thanks for the confirmation.
Apollodorus May 26, 2022 at 21:19 #701172
Quoting ssu
The numbers from Afghanistan, Syria and the two Chechen wars simply show that Russia doesn't care so much about civilian casualties.


Really?! Well, it looks to me like NOBODY in those countries cares about civilian casualties. And neither does the West, otherwise it wouldn't have instigated civil wars there.

Plus, as you say, the Russians haven't killed 150,000 Ukrainians yet. Though, I'm sure Zelensky believes it's 60+ million .... :grin:
Olivier5 May 26, 2022 at 21:27 #701176
Reply to Apollodorus It's precisely because I care for the truth that I am not interested in your numbered propaganda items.
Mikie May 26, 2022 at 21:30 #701181
Quoting Isaac
Woah, a pro war puff piece in The Atlantic. What a surprise!


It’s a pity— I’ve been impressed with the Atlantic in recent years.

Mikie May 26, 2022 at 21:40 #701183
This war seems to be dying down a bit. I’m hopeful for a ceasefire within a few months.

The consequences of this war will be felt for years to come. That’s the only certainty I can see.

In the end, one has to be dumbfounded by the stupid, stupid move on Putin’s part. To say nothing about the immorality.

Also great to see bipartisan support for the US government actively contributing to, and benefiting from, this atrocity. Comforting to know some things never change.

In unrelated news: Lockheed stock has surged nearly 13% since mid February. Chevron about 30%. Thankfully neither industry has much pull in Washington.

RogueAI May 26, 2022 at 22:45 #701220
https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/the-battlefields-of-the-donbass-and-beyond/
Apollodorus May 27, 2022 at 00:41 #701265
Quoting Olivier5
It's precisely because I care for the truth that I am not interested in your numbered propaganda items.


Numbered propaganda items?! :rofl:

I think you’re in denial. Some estimates attribute 186,318 Iraqi deaths to the US-led Coalition.

Lancet surveys of Iraq War casualties – Wikipedia

Is your counting dead Ukrainian civilians any better???

Besides, this isn’t about counting civilian casualties, it’s about the enormous worldwide ramifications of this war that was started by Russia but instigated by America and its European client-states.

Lockheed Martin, one of the largest US defense contractors, donated $256,500 to the campaigns of members of Congress, a gubernatorial campaign, and Republican and Democratic political action committees. In total about 150 lawmakers. This is how it gets decided how much America invests in the war, which defense companies are awarded contracts, etc., etc.

Lockheed Martin's PAC also donated to the campaigns of 27 members of the House Armed Services Committee, including Democratic member and chairman Rep. Adam Smith of Washington.
Lockheed Martin co-produces Javelin anti-tank missile systems, which Ukrainian defenses have used against Russian forces — the US has sent Ukraine at least 5,500 Javelin systems since Biden took office, with the majority coming after Russia's invasion, according to Breaking Defense. The company also produces fighter jets and a wide variety of other military and defense systems.
Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies announced in mid-May that the two companies' joint Javelin venture was awarded two contracts worth $309 million by the US Army to produce more missiles.
In addition to contributions from its PAC, Lockheed Martin also spends millions each year directly lobbying the federal government, including Congress.
During the first quarter of 2022 alone, Lockheed Martin spent $3.3 million on federal-level lobbying efforts, according to data compiled by nonpartisan research organization OpenSecrets.


One of the largest defense contractors in the nation donated to nearly 150 members of Congress as they debated Ukraine military aid – Business Insider

THAT is what drives America’s war effort in Ukraine. Of course, to those who are in denial this is not truth but “propaganda” and “conspiracy theory” …. :grin:


Streetlight May 27, 2022 at 00:56 #701273
What incredible level of comfort and entitlement it must take for people like Olivier and Rogue to sit behind their teak desks and demand that people fighting on one potato a day play out their power fantasies of "getting revenge on Putin" and "punishing Russia":

[Quote]DRUZHKIVKA, Ukraine — Stuck in their trenches, the Ukrainian volunteers lived off a potato per day as Russian forces pounded them with artillery and Grad rockets on a key eastern front line. Outnumbered, untrained and clutching only light weapons, the men prayed for the barrage to end — and for their own tanks to stop targeting the Russians.

“War breaks people down,” said Serhiy Haidai, head of the regional war administration in Luhansk province, acknowledging many volunteers were not properly trained because Ukrainian authorities did not expect Russia to invade. But he maintained that all soldiers are taken care of: “They have enough medical supplies and food. The only thing is there are people that aren’t ready to fight.”

But Lapko and Khrus’s concerns were echoed recently by a platoon of the 115th Brigade 3rd Battalion, based nearby in the besieged city of Severodonetsk. In a video uploaded to Telegram on May 24, and confirmed as authentic by an aide to Haidai, volunteers said they will no longer fight because they lacked proper weapons, rear support and military leadership.

“We are being sent to certain death,” said a volunteer, reading from a prepared script, adding that a similar video was filmed by members of the 115th Brigade 1st Battalion. “We are not alone like this, we are many.”[/quote]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

It must be so nice to expect other people to bear the misery of war for Western revanchism. On to Moscow they can go!
jorndoe May 27, 2022 at 03:03 #701308
‘Putin’s terror affects everyone’: anarchists join Ukraine’s war effort (May 26, 2022)

They have a standing invitation, apparently.

[quote=Dmytro]We are fighting to protect the more or less free society that exists in Ukraine, without which there would be no space for activism or underground movements.
Putin’s terror is happening [in Ukraine] and it is indiscriminate. It is happening against every part of the population, but especially against the Russian-speaking parts of the population that Putin supposedly came here to liberate,
His regime is an ultraconservative, rightwing dictatorship that represses anarchists in Russia, the free press, LGBT networks. It scares even the most banal, grassroots initiatives, like animal rights activists. We see the conflict between Ukraine and Russia as a conflict between a more or less democratic state and a totalitarian one.
We have a strict screening process. We don’t want people who just come here to kill; we want them to understand what they are fighting for.
[/quote]

[quote=Movchan]Putin has appropriated the word anti-fascist and he exploits it to justify his war. [Ukrainian] nationalists say if you’re anti-fascist, you’re pro-Russian, but that’s not the case.
I think both sides of the elite did a lot to create a situation whereby Ukrainians argue a lot about language and versions of history instead of how Kryvyi Rih Stal was privatised.
The cause of the war is the Russian Federation.
[/quote]

Isaac May 27, 2022 at 06:01 #701357
Quoting Olivier5
Do you reckon it may be possible to break the blockade?


I don't see why it matters. America and Europe have enough food to feed the world several times over. If they gave a shit about starving people they'd fucking feed them. They also have enough firepower to break the blockade with their eyes shut.

So whether they'll break the blockade or not will depend entirely on whether they think it will serve their foreign policy objective or not. The starving poor are, as ever, collateral damage in their endless fucking war.

Maybe you'd like to throw some more Ukrainian bodies at it.

As ever, all this bleating about the starving poor is nothing more than useful idiots regurgitating warmongering propaganda. A minute ago we had to continue to fight Putin because of the civilian deaths, now its because of starvation. This despite the fact the the Western governments and corporations of these exact same useful idiots kill more civilians and cause more starvation in their normal activities than Putin has this entire war.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 06:35 #701358
Quoting ssu
But the numbers from Afghanistan, Syria and the two Chechen wars simply show that Russia doesn't care so much about civilian casualties.


Afghanistan - Not even going to dignify that one with an answer, it was 40 years ago. are we going to allow Hiroshima and Vietnam in the comparison?

Syria - some 6,000 civilians killed by Russian forces http://sn4hr.org/blog/2018/09/24/civilian-death-toll//

Chechnya - some 40,000 civilians killed (some proportion of which will be Russian forces) according to the research of Chechnya expert John Dunlop

America's wars (for comparison) https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/WarDeathToll

Afghanistan: 46,000
Iraq: 200,000
Pakistan: 24,000
Yemen: 12,000

So just fully explain to us all how exactly 'the numbers' show that Russia particularly cares any less (or more) about civilian casualties than any other.
Olivier5 May 27, 2022 at 06:48 #701360
Quoting Isaac
I don't see why it matters. America and Europe have enough food to feed the world several times over.


In your dreams.

The point would obviously be to lower food prices and reduce suffering the world over. Your casual disregard of the poor is noted. As long as Putin is safe, you're happy.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 07:10 #701366
Quoting Olivier5
That is BS.


Tristram Stuart - Feedback:Food availability in rich countries in fact represents 150-200% of nutritional needs in calorific terms


UN FAO:
There is more than enough food produced today to feed every last one of us.

UN Environment Programme:
Every year, consumers in rich countries waste almost as much food (222 million tonnes) as the entire net food production of sub-Saharan Africa (230 million tonnes).

Even if just one-fourth of the food currently lost or wasted globally could be saved, it would be enough to feed 870 million hungry people in the world.


Feedback:in developing countries, food that is perfectly fit for human consumption ends up unsold as a result of the actions taken by those further up the supply chain – brokers, exporters, importers, retailers, and consumers.


Clive Ponting:In none of the twentieth century famines has there been an absolute shortage of food; the problem has been unequal access due to poverty, a problem that resort to food aid has not solved. In Bengal in 1943-1944 about three million people died after rice prices quadrupled in two years. Worst affected were the rural areas, where wages had not kept pace with wartime inflation, and some towns where workers were unemployed because of the dislocation caused by the war. People without money were unable to buy food and the British imperial authorities took little action (apart from moving food to Calcutta because they feared mass civil unrest). One of the worst famines of modern times therefore took place when the amount of food per head in Bengal was actually 7% higher than in 1941 and food stocks were at record levels. In Ethiopia, in 1972-1974, about 200,000 people died in the provinces of Wollo and Tigre even though the country’s food production only fell by just over 5% – during this period food was still being exported from the affected provinces and from the country as a whole. In Bangladesh in 1974 when rice prices doubled in three months after severe flooding, those who were out of work because of the disruption caused by the floods could not afford to buy food. As a result one and a half million people died of starvation. But there was no absolute shortage of food – production of rice in Bangladesh, both in total and per head terms, was the highest ever in 1974 – once again it was a problem of who had the resources to buy food at higher prices.


Around 240 million tonnes of grain are stored worldwide in order to keep the price high. That would provide every human being with 3600 calories a day


Feedback:in Kenya, the policies of European supermarkets and their direct suppliers cause Kenyan smallholders to waste around 40% of what they grow for European markets – even in a country with millions of hungry people.


Quoting Olivier5
The point would obviously be to lower food prices and reduce suffering the world over. You're not interested?


Why would we do that via breaking a naval blockade when we could do it without losing a single life simply by paying the food producers a fair wage so that they can afford the food we export?
Streetlight May 27, 2022 at 07:12 #701368
Quoting Isaac
Why would we do that via breaking a naval blockade when we could do it without losing a single life simply by paying the food producers a fair wage so that they can afford the food we export?


Why would we do that when we can have a lovely little war?
Olivier5 May 27, 2022 at 07:13 #701369
Reply to Isaac Translation: the world can die, as long as Putin is safe.
ssu May 27, 2022 at 08:08 #701379
Quoting Apollodorus
Really?! Well, it looks to me like NOBODY in those countries cares about civilian casualties. And neither does the West, otherwise it wouldn't have instigated civil wars there.


Civilian casualties during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (9+ years): 562 000 - 2 000 000 killed

Civilian casualties during the American invasion of Afghanistan (19+ years): 176 000 - 212 000 killed

There's a difference.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 08:10 #701382
Quoting Streetlight
Why would we do that when we can have a lovely little war?


Ah yes, I'd forgotten that world-famous saver of lives - warfare.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 08:10 #701383
Quoting Olivier5
Translation: the world can die, as long as Putin is safe.


Translation: "I've got no counter argument and the intellectual imagination of a five year old, so I'll resort to parroting the puerile trope that anyone not cheerleading the war must be pro-Putin"
Olivier5 May 27, 2022 at 08:25 #701388
Reply to Isaac Would you find it objectionable if Draghi (and/or others) would find a diplomatic way to get this wheat out of Odessa?
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 08:48 #701390
Reply to ssu

Civilian casualties during the American invasion of Vietnam (9+ years): 332,000

Civilian casualties during the American atomic bombing of Japan (2 days): 355,000

Civilian casualties during the American fire bombing of Tokyo (1 day): 100,000

How far back do you want to go? Just far enough to prove your point, and no further?

Shall we add up all the wars Western powers have been involved in and those of Russia? Shall we divide by the size of the country? Shall we include deaths from starvation and health poverty resulting from pecuniary postwar loan terms?
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 08:48 #701391
Quoting Olivier5
Would you find it objectionable if Draghi (and/or others) would find a diplomatic way to get this wheat out of Odessa?


Your point?
ssu May 27, 2022 at 08:58 #701394
Quoting Isaac
Chechnya - some 40,000 civilians killed (some proportion of which will be Russian forces) according to the research of Chechnya expert John Dunlop

Again this seem to be false.

Even the Russian Federal State Statistics Service put only the first Chechen war to be 30 000 to 40 000 civilians dead. The Federation of American Scientists write of the first war:

Estimates vary of the total number of casualties caused by the war. Russian Interior Minister Kulikov claimed that fewer than 20,000 civilians were killed while then-Secretary of the National Security Council Aleksandr Lebed asserted that 80,000 to 100,000 had been killed and 240,000 had been injured. Chechen spokesmen claim that the true numbers are even higher.


Yet there's the second Chechen war, instigated by Putin himself. There the estimates of civilian casualties vary from 25 000 to 200 000. After the war Chechen officials (which are Pro-Kremlin, naturally) put the death to of the two wars at 160 000 (see here).

So hence it's interesting to actually look at what John Dunlop has actually said. From which it is obvious that Isaac, as usual, is totally clueless of there being two wars in Chechnya. But from the first Chechen war is said:

Most scholars and human rights organizations generally estimate the number of civilian casualties to be 40,000[iii]; this figure is attributed to the research and scholarship of Chechnya expert John Dunlop, who estimates that the total number of civilian casualties is at least 35,000.[iv] This range is also consistent with post-war publications by the Russian statistics office estimating 30,000 to 40,000[v] civilians killed. The Moscow-based human rights organization, Memorial, which actively documented human rights abuses throughout the war, estimates the number of civilian casualties to be a slightly higher at 50,000.[vi]


And obviously John Dunlop is talking about the first Chechen war, because the article was written in the year 2000, when the Second Chechen war was still underway (Dunlop, John B. 2000. “How many soldiers and civilians died during the Russo-Chechen war of 1994 – 1996?” Central Asian Survey 19:3-4, 328 – 338.)

Hence the civilian casualties of the Second Chechen war should be added up:

According to a count by the Russian human rights group Memorial in 2007, up to 25,000 civilians have died or disappeared since 1999. According to Amnesty International in 2007, the second war killed up to 25,000 civilians since 1999, with up to another 5,000 people missing.


And of course one should remember that compared to Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria, the population of Chechens is tiny. So small, that even if we don't believe what the Chechens say is hundreds of thousands, it's still a quite genocidal killing as there are ONLY two million Chechens. Which just show what a killing spree Russia went in Chechnya, and now you have Chechen fighters fighting in Ukraine on both sides.

ssu May 27, 2022 at 09:05 #701397
Quoting Isaac
How far back do you want to go? Just far enough to prove your point, and no further?

With figures from the World Wars you get high numbers of course.

My point is that Russia's way of fighting a war increases both civilian and military casualties. Similar losses that Russian units have suffered, the Western generals and leadership would flinch and pull back. Russians units can be decimated and it doesn't cause a huge political uproar. I think it's been carried from the Soviet thinking and never has the Russian/Soviet war machine care about individuals like the US Army with slogans like "safety first". Of course this has also an impact on the soldiers themselves as they can see that they aren't backed up or taken care of.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 09:08 #701398
I would hazard a guess that no one here would suggest that flattening cities, killing civilians, fighting in trenches on a potato a day, or letting mountains of grain rot while people starve is a "good thing". A good many folks here, though, suggest that if you think X you must be in favour of [insert horror here].

Such arguments are not a "good thing", either. Wars happen because folks think that war is better than submission to [insert arsehole here] This applies even to aggressors, who also think that war is better than submission to [insert limitation of their power]. Thus war entails agreement to fight, and agreement that war is better than submission. Start your discussion with this agreement in mind, that the war is necessary, and the lessor evil. both sides would prefer to have their own way peacefully, but...

Isaac May 27, 2022 at 09:09 #701399
Quoting ssu
the civilian casualties of the Second Chechen war should be added up:


Why? Should we add up all the collective interventions in the 'war on terror'?

Quoting ssu
And of course one should remember that compared to Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria, the population of Chechens is tiny.


Ah, so we should reduce your figures for the deaths in Afghanistan? Or do we only reduce figures by population size when it suits you?

And...as still goes unanswered...

Quoting Isaac
Shall we include deaths from starvation and health poverty resulting from pecuniary postwar loan terms?


As was famously espoused during the Covid crisis, total unexpected death is the only way to get a true measure of a country's general concern for civilian life.

So. Add up all the avoidable death in the world - the invasions, the starvation, the civil wars, the poor health, pollution, suicides - just how many are on Russia's hands and how many on America's?

Anything less than that is just fiddling with statistics to make your point.

ssu May 27, 2022 at 09:13 #701403
Quoting unenlightened
Start your discussion with this agreement in mind, that the war is necessary, and the lessor evil. both sides would prefer to have their own way peacefully, but...


...one has to be popular to become a President and gain power, even in Russia. And for Putin, starting a war has been the way to get that popularity up. It worked earlier so well.

User image
(Notice that the Second Chechen War started in 1999 and raised Putin's popularity from being unknown. And I will add that there have been also other reasons for the popularity, like getting the economy growing in the first decade of the Millennium.)
ssu May 27, 2022 at 09:19 #701404
Quoting Isaac
Ah, so we should reduce your figures for the deaths in Afghanistan? Or do we only reduce figures by population size when it suits you?

You're really clueless, you know that?

OK. If the population is only two million and not forty million (like in Afghanistan), then 40 000 killed means that more of the population has been killed in the war.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 09:19 #701405
Quoting Isaac
So. Add up all the avoidable death in the world - the invasions, the starvation, the civil wars, the poor health, pollution, suicides - just how many are on Russia's hands and how many on America's?


Too many.

To think this is a question with any significance is to espouse a dogmatic ideology that necessarily creates its negation as the eternal enemy. This is an exercise in futility that the world can well do without, that has taken over from religion as the banner under which wars and other power games are commonly prosecuted. "Your body pile is higher than mine, therefore we are the good guys." Another bad argument.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 09:21 #701406
Quoting ssu
And for Putin, starting a war has been the way to get that popularity up.


I think he would have been even more popular if Ukraine had submitted.
ssu May 27, 2022 at 09:27 #701409
Quoting unenlightened
I think he would have been even more popular if Ukraine had submitted.

That was the thing Putin was gambling on. And the spectacular success in 2014 likely contributed to these ideas being treated as totally serious. It worked then, why wouldn't it work now?

Besides, this reasoning is quite universal. If the liberation of Kuwait wouldn't have been such an easy thing to do, there likely wouldn't have been an occupation of Iraq by Bush Jr later. Victories promote later hubris, defeats criticism and reconsidering.
Olivier5 May 27, 2022 at 09:34 #701410
Reply to Isaac To test your interest in a specific, actual diplomatic effort as opposed to theoretical gesticulations in favor of diplomacy in general.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 09:42 #701411
Quoting ssu
Besides, this reasoning is quite universal.


Yes. Exactly my point. War is always an agreement.

[quote= Lewis Carroll]Tweedledum and Tweedledee
Agreed to have a battle;
For Tweedledum said Tweedledee
Had spoiled his nice new rattle.[/quote]
neomac May 27, 2022 at 10:53 #701415
Quoting Apollodorus
It doesn't say anywhere that people aren't allowed to make anti-NATO arguments!


So what?! It still is an excellent example of dialectic diversion, exactly because that piece of anti-NATO propaganda routine has nothing to do with what I was questioning. Indeed even if there was no NATO and no war between Russia and Ukraine involving NATO, all my arguments challenging your theory of the rightful owners as applied to the case of the Crimean Tatars would have been exactly the same.

Quoting Apollodorus
As for your "disputing wrt Crimean Tatar issue" you could have saved yourself that long and incoherent rant because it looks like you don't have a clue what you're disputing! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
You claimed that "Crimean Tatars became the majority" and then backpedaled by saying "I never said that the Tatars were the majority"!
So, were they the majority or not???
And, obviously, in order to even discuss Crimean Tatars and your spurious claim that "Crimea is owned by Tatars therefore it belongs to Ukraine (or America?)”, we need to establish what a Crimean Tatar is.


Dude, congrats, you just offered the epitome of your intellectual misery!
Now tell me, where on earth did I claim “Crimea is owned by Tatars therefore it belongs to Ukraine (or America?)” ?! How on earth can you be so intellectually dishonest to double quote something I never written nor implied nor suggested nor believe, yet suggesting I made that claim which is a blatant lie?!
BTW if we need to establish first what “Crimean Tatar” means before discussing “Crimean Tatars” and I also repeatedly clarified what “Crimean Tatar” means to me in my past posts, why on earth do you feel so confident in mixing your claims about “Tatars” with my claims about “Crimean Tatars” to artificially suggest an inconsistency or backpedaling that doesn’t exist ?!

I stand by what I wrote and am responsible for what I write not for that you are incapable of understanding. To repeat once more the point, briefly: “Crimean Tatars” are ethnically indigenous people of Crimea who speak natively Crimean Tatar language (along with whatever cultural&genetic heritage this native language enables people to share, of course) and whose ethnogenesis show a genetic admixture of different ethnic subgroups happening within Crimea in more than 2 millennia.

But if you do not like my definition we can relay on a mainstream source like Wikipedia:
[i]Crimean Tatars (Crimean Tatar: q?r?mtatarlar, ??????????????) or Crimeans (Crimean Tatar: q?r?mlar, ????????? or q?r?ml?lar, ???????????), are a Turkic ethnic group and nation who are an indigenous people of Crimea. The formation and ethnogenesis of Crimean Tatars occurred during the 13th–17th centuries, uniting Cumans, who appeared in Crimea in the 10th century, with other peoples who had inhabited Crimea since ancient times and gradually underwent Tatarization, including Greeks, Italians and Goths.[/I]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars

[i]The Crimean Tatar language (q?r?mtatar tili, ??????????? ????, tatar t?l?, tatar?a, k?r?m tatar?a), also called Crimean language (q?r?m tili, ?????? ????),[1] is a Kipchak Turkic language spoken in Crimea and the Crimean Tatar diasporas of Uzbekistan, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria, as well as small communities in the United States and Canada. It should not be confused with Tatar proper, spoken in Tatarstan and adjacent regions in Russia; the languages are related, but belong to two different subgroups of the Kipchak languages and thus are not mutually intelligible.[/I]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatar_language


Quoting Apollodorus
Turkic people are defined as "descended from agricultural communities in Northeastern China and wider Northeast Asia, who moved westwards into Mongolia in the late 3rd millennium BC" (Wikipedia). This is scholarly opinion corroborated by genetic, historical, and archaeological evidence, not a "myth".
This is why they are referred to as "Mongoloid", because they are related to Mongols and some even look like Mongols. "Mongoloid" is the term used by scholars:
Anthropologically, about 80% of the Volga Tatars belong today to Caucasoids and 20% to Mongoloids (Khalikov 1978).
Erdogan calls them "Crimean Turks". How is that better than "Crimean Mongols"???
Obviously, there must be some Crimean Mongols as Crimea was invaded and occupied by the Mongols. But I didn't say ALL Crimean Tatars are Mongols.


You just summed up the roots of your misconceptions about the Crimean Tatars. Crimean Tatars are not the Mongols of Crimea as you called them. Period! Now you are ridiculously backpedaling: proof is that you stopped to call them Mongols of Crimea and you even dare to say [I]”I didn't say ALL Crimean Tatars are Mongols”[/I] (which is not only shameless but goofy because calling the Crimean Tatars “The Mongols of Crimea” doesn’t necessarily suggest that ALL Crimean Tatars are Mongols, they could just be the majority which is again arguably wrong!). If there was nothing wrong with this label promoting Russian propaganda, you would keep calling them the Mongols of Crimea, instead of moving to “The Tatars of Crimea”.
What is mythical in your flawed reconstruction is the assimilation of Crimean Tatars to Mongols because of their putative historical origins and by conflating cultural aspects (the turkic language which doesn’t even guarantee intercommunicability between Crimean Tatars and Mongols or other Turkic people) with biological aspects (based on the obsolete distinction between Mongoloid and Caucasoid, and notice that phenotypical traits relevant for racial classifications do not necessarily prove anything conclusive about a single genotype, go figure for a mixed genotype, https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/phenotype-variability-penetrance-and-expressivity-573/).
I remind you also of the fact that you claimed [i]“Tatars and other Turkic peoples originally came from the same area as the Mongols and are genetically closely related to them.”[/I] which is contradicted by what you just cited [i]“about 80% of the Volga Tatars belong today to Caucasoids and 20% to Mongoloids (Khalikov 1978)”[/I] exactly for the reason that if 80% of the Volga Tatar genetic pool is Caucausoids then more closely related to Caucasoids then to Mongols and THEREFORE they should be called Caucasoid, and not Mongoloid!!!
That is also why I refuse to use the generic term “Tatars” to refer to Crimean Tatars, because that terminology will more easily trigger all your misconceptions.
By calling Crimean Tatars “Crimean Turks” Erdogan may be promoting his own propaganda as much as the Russians are promoting theirs by calling the Crimean Tatars “The Mongols of Crimea”, that’s hardly surprising: Putin is even denying the Ukrainian national identity and despite Russians consider them their “brothers” (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/16/we-are-one-people-why-would-we-fight-our-brothers-russians-react-to-ukraine-war-threat-a76414), they are now bombing them, looting them, and raping them to pursue their imperialist ambitions which are arguably more immoral than ancient Mongol-Tatar (non-Slavic) tribes killing, looting and raping ancient Slavic tribes!


Quoting Apollodorus
On the contrary, my point was that the genetic evidence suggests that many of them are NOT Mongols, NOT Turkic, and therefore NOT Tatars, depending on their genetic makeup.


You are disastrously reiterating your conceptual confusion: you are conflating biological factors (genetic evidences) with cultural classifications/identities (e.g. what language is natively spoken)! One can be 80% Caucasoid and still speak a Turkic/Tatar language natively!



Quoting Apollodorus
What makes you think that I must prefer your NATO propaganda to mainstream sources???
And NO, your Tatar witness does NOT support your claim that Tatars are "indigenous to Crimea".


First of all, this is my quote [i]“I cited this ICCRIMEA article to support the claim that Crimean Tatars are NOT MONGOLS AS YOU CLAIM!!!”[/I]
Second, my Crimean Tatar witness supports my claim that Tatars are "indigenous to Crimea" [i]“The above DNA test results reaffirm what we have known from history that Crimean Tatars are descendants of the various peoples who settled and lived in Crimea for centuries. The Crimean Tatars, indigenous people of Crimea, did not just come from the East, as many are inclined to think. Rather, they are the descendants of the people who moved to Crimea from different directions: Scythians, Goths, Byzantines, Genovese, and Turkic groups such as Khazars, Kipchaks, Tatars and Ottoman Turks.”[/I] Source: https://iccrimea.org/reports/genographic-results.html
Third, even assumed that the ICCRIMEA article is NATO propaganda, for sure there is no contradiction between NATO propaganda and mainstream sources, concerning the fact that Crimean Tatars are indigenous people of Crimea. Indeed I cited from other sources too: Wikipedia articles, books and anthropological papers dedicated to the Crimean Tatars, scientific papers on the genetics of the Crimean Tatars [1]. All of them support the claim that Crimean Tatars are not the Mongols of Crimea and they are indigenous to Crimea.

Quoting Apollodorus
Approximately 75 percent of the Crimean population consisted of slaves or freedmen


My question to you is still the same: if the victims of these raids and slavery market where not only the ancestors of Russians but also the ancestors of Ukrainians or from other Eastern European areas, why are ONLY the Russians repaid for the Mongol-Tatars’ past injustice through the annexation of the entire Crimea?!



Quoting Apollodorus
Her DNA is as follows:
28% Northern Asian = Siberian (Mongol/Turk) = Tatar
20% Mediterranean = Greek/Italian
22% Northern European = Scandinavian? Baltic?
20% Middle Eastern = ? (Iranian? Turkish? Jewish? Egyptian/Arab?)

In case you forgot, Crimea is in Eastern Europe. There is no Eastern European DNA in your "evidence"!


So what?! If the test doesn’t report genes that the laboratory could classify as Eastern European this is neither her fault nor laboratory’s fault. Besides the equations you are suggesting are your personal conjectures since the study maps geographic areas with DNA pools, and doesn’t offer any strong evidence to support whatever you may infer from it in racial terms.

Quoting Apollodorus
And note that she mentions four Turkic groups among her ancestors, which amounts to an admission to being at least in part of Turkic, i.e., Mongoloid-Siberian descent.


These are your personal conjectures (where again you confuse racial with ethnic concepts), besides the reference to other turkic groups is contextual to a comment about Crimean Tatars in general not to her case in particular (she didn’t say ALL Crimean Tatars! LOL).


Quoting Apollodorus
Incidentally, note how she conveniently leaves out the Taurian people who were the original, indigenous inhabitants of Crimea!
Also note how she conveniently leaves out the Crimean Greeks who have lived in Crimea from the 7th century BC, i.e., many centuries before the Tatars.


That she did so out of convenience is just your personal conjecture. Besides, I don’t know her personally, but I know your ideological bias enough to understand why you are motivated to frame her article this way.
Concerning the “indigenous” question, which is the substantial one, let’s clarify another source of misunderstanding: the claim that some people are “indigenous” may be LEGITIMATELY understood in relative historical terms, in the sense some people are “indigenous” if they occupy a land prior to the expansion of a foreign colonial power or the formation of nation state by foreign people in that land. In that sense “Crimean Tatars” are indigenous of Crimea wrt Ukrainians and Russians (as the foreign State contenders of this territory), and so they are officially acknowledged with the status of “indigenous people” by Ukrainians, EU and UN. And this is echoed in mainstream sources too.
However, the claim that some people are “indigenous” may be LEGITIMATELY understood in absolute historical terms as the earliest traceable settlers on a given territory. So the Tauri as the earliest Greek settlers in Crimea can be legitimately considered the “indigenous” people of Crimea in absolute historical terms. Does this settle the issue about the indigenous inhabitants of Crimea in absolute historical terms once for all? To me, ABSOLUTELY NO for three reasons (all supported by mainstream sources): a) in ancient times, the colonial or (semi-)nomadic nature of various ethnic groups and tribes’ settlements didn’t ensure any wide and permanent territorial occupation and control. For example, the Tauri didn’t populate the entire Crimea, but mainly the southern coastal areas of Crimea. The northern part of Crimea was exposed to different waves ethnic semi-nomadic tribes (Iranic, Germanic and Turkic). So none of those ethnic groups had stable, complete or dominant territorial occupation over the entire Crimea. In that sense even nomadic people who settled in Crimea AFTER the Tauri could be considered the earliest inhabitants of Crimea, and so indigenous in absolute historical terms, simply because they were occupying regions of Crimea never inhabited nor dominated by the Tauri! b) The assimilation of earliest ethnic groups (including the Tauri) into the Crimean Tatar ethnic group, so the blood of the ancient Tauri (and other earliest inhabitants) is still running into Crimean Tatars’ veins and being their descendants they share the “indigenous” status in Crimea in absolute historical terms. c) from an ethno-genetic perspective, since the Tatarization of the entire Crimea was possible starting from the 15th century under the Crimean Khanate and the Ottoman Empire, the earliest dominant ethnic group native to Crimea in the entire Crimea were the Crimean Tatars ("The Crimean Tatar language was the universal means of communication in the Crimea from the 15th to the 19th centuries" Source:https://www.eki.ee/books/redbook/crimean_jews.shtml). And the fact that the officially acknowledged indigenous people of Crimea are so far only Crimean Tatars, Crimean Karaites, and Krymchaks suggests that there are no Tauri descendants that could claim or could be acknowledged the status of “indigenous” for a distinctive Tauri ethnic-group. So until you can provide evidence for the existence of an ethnic-group with mainly ancient Tauri ancestors distinct from other indigenous people of Crimea, I don’t even see the relevance of talking about them.

Finally, as I already repeatedly argued in the previous posts,
IF your theory of the rightful owners establishes for whatever reason that the Tauris as the unique earliest inhabitants of Crimea or generically “the Greeks” (as Greek is the Tauris’ original ethnicity) are the rightful owners of (part of or the entire?) Crimea,
THEREFORE you should oppose the imperialist annexation or russification of Crimea by Russians
AND promote instead the annexation/concession of (part of or the entire?) Crimea to the Crimean Tauri descendants as distinct indigenous ethnic community (if they still exist) or the Greeks
AS WELL AS the annexation/concession of (part of or the entire?) the Russian Krasnodar Krai since in the same ancient times the Tauris also colonised as first known settlers some coastal areas of the actual Krasnodar Krai (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krasnodar_Krai#History)!
So, now you have 2 ways to oppose Russian imperialism and promote the magnificent Indo-European Caucaisoid Greek Tauri civilisation ([i]“in his Histories, Herodotus describes the Tauri as living “by plundering and war”[/I] Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tauri )! Good luck with that!

There is really nothing you can do to recover all the bullshits your have shamelessly thrown at me. You are intellectually miserable. I would even respect more professional Russian trolls than you, coz at least they are paid for it.


[1]
[i]The fact that Crimean Tatars' ethnogenesis took place in Crimea and consisted of several stages lasting over 2500 years is proved by genetic research showing that in the gene pool of the Crimean Tatars preserved both the initial component for more than 2.5 thousand years, and later in the northern steppe regions of the Crimea.[/I] (Source: https://us.edu.vn/en/Crimean_Tatar_people-0262024006)


[I]“[b]The Crimean Tatars were formed as a people in Crimea and are descendants of various peoples who lived in Crimea in different historical eras. The main ethnic groups that inhabited the Crimea at various times and took part in the formation of the Crimean Tatar people are Tauri, Scythians, Sarmatians, Alans, Greeks, Goths, Bulgars, Khazars, Pechenegs, Italians and Circassians. The consolidation of this diverse ethnic conglomerate into a single Crimean Tatar people took place over the course of centuries. The connecting elements in this process were the commonality of the territory, the Turkic language and Islamic religion.
An important role in the formation of the Crimean Tatar people belongs to the Western Kipchaks, known in historiography as Cumans. [/b]They became the consolidating ethnic group, which included all other peoples who inhabited the Crimea since ancient times. Kipchaks from the 11th-12th century began to settle the Volga, Azov and Black Sea steppes (which from then until the 18th century were called the Desht-i Kipchak – "Cumanian steppe"). Starting in the second half of the 11th century, they began actively moving to the Crimea. A significant number of the Cumans hid in the mountains of Crimea, fleeing after the defeat of the combined Cumanian-Russian troops by the Mongols and the subsequent defeat of the Cumanian proto-state formations in the Northern Black Sea region.
By the end of the 15th century, the main prerequisites that led to the formation of an independent Crimean Tatar ethnic group were created: the political dominance of the Crimean Khanate was established in Crimea, the Turkic languages (Cuman-Kipchak on the territory of the khanate) became dominant, and Islam acquired the status of a state religion throughout the Peninsula. By a preponderance Cumanian population of the Crimea acquired the name "Tatars", the Islamic religion and Turkic language, and the process of consolidating the multi-ethnic conglomerate of the Peninsula began, which has led to the emergence of the Crimean Tatar people.[19] Over several centuries, on the basis of Cuman language with a noticeable Oghuz influence, the Crimean Tatar language has developed.”[/i]
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars#Origin


This sort of debate has also swirled around the issue of the ethnic identity of one of Europe's most misunderstood Muslim ethnic groups, the Crimean Tatars. While the Crimean Tatars (who were exiled in toto from their homeland from 1944±1989 by Stalin) see themselves as the indigenous people (korennoi narod) of their cherished peninsular homeland, with origins traceable to the pre-Mongol period, they have long been portrayed in western and Soviet sources as thirteenth-century ``Mongol invaders’’.
Source: Williams, Brian Glyn. 2001. "The Ethnogenesis of the Crimean Tatars. An Historical Reinterpretation"


[i]While the Crimean Tatars are traditionally described as descendents of the Golden Horde, the formation of this Turkic-speaking, Sunni Muslim people has pre-Mongol origins in the ancient, indigenous peoples of the Crimean peninsula. They believe their history begins with the tribes living
in Crimea in prehistoric and ancient times, including the Tavriis and Kimmerites, who occupied the peninsula from 2-1,000 B.C.E. (Kudusov 1995: 15). The Crimean Tatars therefore consider themselves one of the indigenous peoples, along with the Karaims and Krymchaks [/i]
Source: The Crimean Tatars’ Deportation and Return - GRETA LYNN UEHLING (2004)


Under the Imperial Russians, the Crimean Tatars, whose ethnic origins went back to the eleventh century Kipchaks and beyond to earlier south Crimean peoples, such as the Medieval Goths, Greeks and Italians, would begin to disintegrate as hundreds of thousands of the Tsarina’s new Muslim subjects fled Russian repression to the sheltering lands of the Ottoman sultans/caliphs. The majority of the Crimea’s Muslim Tatar peasants would ultimately leave the peninsula to par- take in hijra (migration to preserve Islam from oppression by the non- believer) to the Ottoman Empire.
Source: BRIAN GLYN WILLIAMS “The Crimean Tatars” (2016)

2. “The Westasian and Mediterranean genetic components (population of Asia Minor and Balkans) predominate in the gene pool of Crimea Tatars, the Eurasian steppe component is much fewer.” Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311805917_The_Tatars_of_Eurasia_peculiarity_of_Crimean_Volga_and_Siberian_Tatar_gene_pools
[i]3. The Eurasian genetic influence concerns particularly a subgroup of Crimean Tatars:
“It is the most likely that discovered features of Steppe Crimean Tatars gene pool reflect the genetic contribution of medieval Eurasian Steppe nomads. The component predominant in Mountain and Coastal Crimean Tatars gene pools and in Crimean Greeks suggests that genetic contribution of East Mediterranean populations continued in Crimea for many centuries.”[/i]
Source: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/the-gene-pool-of-indigenous-crimean-populations-mediterranean-meets-eurasian-steppe/pdf
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 12:33 #701423
Quoting ssu
OK. If the population is only two million and not forty million (like in Afghanistan), then 40 000 killed means that more of the population has been killed in the war.


I wasn't talking about the changes to your argument regarding Chechnya, I was talking about the changes to your argument regarding Afghanistan. You cited absolute figures for Afghanistan because they looked big, then when you want to make smaller figures look bigger your revert to proportional figures. It's just a really transparent trick. Hence my reference to totals.

If you want to use figures to make the claim that Russia cares less about civilian deaths than America, then you need to compare the actual number of civilian deaths each country has knowingly caused, in total, by it's various actions. Anything less is just lying with statistics.

Quoting unenlightened
To think this is a question with any significance is to espouse a dogmatic ideology that necessarily creates its negation as the eternal enemy. This is an exercise in futility that the world can well do without, that has taken over from religion as the banner under which wars and other power games are commonly prosecuted. "Your body pile is higher than mine, therefore we are the good guys."


Then you might want to take the matter up with @ssu who made the claim...

But the numbers from Afghanistan, Syria and the two Chechen wars simply show that Russia doesn't care so much about civilian casualties. — ssu

...but still, I think it's relevant here. If one of your choices when fighting a bear is to let a lion in to the arena it's relevant to know whether the lion's going to do more damage to your bear than it it is you.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 12:38 #701427
Quoting Olivier5
To test your interest in a specific, actual diplomatic effort as opposed to theoretical gesticulations in favor of diplomacy in general.


And how did you suppose it was going to do that? By catching me out in a cunningly worded question? Are you one of the people who think "What's in your bag, sir?" actually catches terrorists?

Of course I would be in favour of a diplomatic solution to the blockade, but I would say that even if I weren't because it's so obviously the only reasonable sounding thing to say, so I fail to see how you've 'tested' anything that you didn't already know.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 12:55 #701429
Quoting ssu
for Putin, starting a war has been the way to get that popularity up. It worked earlier so well.


Yeah, what are those warmongering Ruskies like eh? Such a thing would never happen in civilised countries...

User image

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Apollodorus May 27, 2022 at 13:08 #701435
Reply to neomac

You seem to be getting increasingly confused and irrational. :smile:

You posted that propaganda piece on Tatar DNA to “prove” that Crimea belongs to Tatars and that Tatars are Ukrainians hence Crimea belongs to Ukraine.

But you haven’t answered my question of why (a) she leaves out the Tauri and the Greeks, and (b) why she has zero Eastern European DNA.

You probably imagine that we haven’t noticed, but her post was republished by Euromaidan Press, an anti-Russian outfit, back in 2015 to “prove that Putin is wrong about Crimea”! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

In other words, your "evidence" is not from some reputable scientific publication, of course not, but from evidence-free, anti-Russian propaganda literature.

Not only you have no evidence for your spurious claims, but it was YOU who brought up the Crimean Tatars!

My original argument was (1) that “every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners” and (2) that if NATO wants to give Crimea to Ukraine after it’s been annexed by Russia, it should start by returning Tibet to the Tibetans, North Cyprus to the Cypriots, Kurdistan to the Kurds, etc.

You seem to have got mad at the suggestion that Tibet belongs to the Tibetans and started hurling invectives. And you’ve been incoherently ranting ever since.

It should be obvious that Crimea doesn’t need to be given to the Tatars the same way Tibet should be returned to Tibetans (1) because Tatars are an alien minority in Crimea whereas Tibetans are native to Tibet and (2) because Crimea has been Russian (not Tatar) since 1783; for the same reason, Crimea should not be given to Ukraine.

However, as I’ve repeatedly stated, the principle that every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners needs to be applied on the merits of each individual case.

In Crimea’s case, I never said that it MUST belong to Russia. On the contrary, given that when Russia took Crimea from the Turks, Russia and Ukraine were one country, Crimea in an ideal situation should be amicably shared by Russia and Ukraine (with some additional rights given to Crimean Greeks and others).

In fact, Crimea was initially shared after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Russia was able to use the naval bases there. But this was rendered impossible when America insisted on drawing Ukraine deeper and deeper into its NATO spiderweb.

Very simple and easy to understand IMO. Unfortunately, the ignorant and the uneducated are unable to understand, and NATO jihadis don’t want to understand. This is why they irrationally insist that Crimea belongs to Ukraine, Ukraine belongs to NATO, and NATO belongs to America!

As for my referring to Crimean Tatars as “Mongols of Crimea” it’s the same as the Turkish government calling them “Crimean Turks”. It simply refers to their generally accepted Turkic/Mongol ethnicity:

Mongoloid adj.
1. Resembling or having some of the characteristic physical features of Mongolians; spec. designating or relating to the division of mankind including the indigenous peoples of eastern Asia, South-East Asia, and the Arctic region of North America, who are characterized by dark eyes with an epicanthic fold, pale ivory to dark skin, straight dark hair, and little facial and bodily hair. – Oxford English Dictionary, online version (2022).
Mongoloid
/?m??.??.l??d/ is the general physical type of some or all of the populations of East Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Siberia, the Arctic, parts of the Americas and the Pacific Islands, and small parts of South Asia. – Audiopedia
Mongoloid
Pertaining to a race of mankind, characterized by a faintly yellowish skin, an epicanthic fold, sparse body hair, and black straight head hair. – A Dictionary of Genetics (2007).
Mon•gol•oid
(?m?? g??l??d, ?m?n-) adj. 1. of, designating, or characteristic of one of the traditional racial divisions of humankind, marked by yellowish complexion, prominent cheekbones, epicanthic folds, and straight black hair and including the Mongols, Chinese, Japanese, Siamese, Eskimos, and, in some classifications, the American Indians. – Websters College Dictionary (2010).
Mongoloid
anthropological term designating one of the major groups of human beings originating from Asia, excluding the Indian subcontinent and including Native American Indians. – Forensic Science Communications, FBI Laboratory (2005).


See also:

Tatar n.
1. A native inhabitant of the region of central Asia extending eastward from the Caspian Sea, and formerly known as Independent and Chinese Tartary. First known in the West as applied to the mingled host of Mongols, Tartars, Turks, etc., which under the leadership of Genghis Khan (1202–1227) overran and devastated much of Asia and Eastern Europe; hence applied to the descendants of these now dwelling in Asia or Europe; more strictly and ethnologically, to any member of the Tâtar or Turkic branch of the Ural-Altaic or Turanian family, embracing the Turks, Cossacks, and Kirghiz Tartars. – Oxford English Dictionary (online version, 2022).

Anthropologically, about 80% of the Volga Tatars belong today to Caucasoids and 20% to Mongoloids – “Mitogenomic Diversity in Tatars from the Volga-Ural Region of Russia” (2010).


I even demonstrated to you what a REAL Crimean Tatar looks like. I think even the blind can see the resemblance with Mongols:

WIKITONGUES: Neceadin speaking Crimean Tatar - Youtube

So, I’d highly recommend you go and educate yourself before discussing things of which you have no knowledge or understanding.

The fact is that the Crimean Tatars EMIGRATED. They weren’t “expelled”. Millions of people from England, France, Germany, and other European countries including Russia emigrated to America. It doesn’t mean they were “expelled” or “persecuted”.

Moreover, the vast majority of Crimean Tatars emigrated to Turkey between 1783 and 1897 because they were a Turkic group. Clearly, they saw themselves as non-Europeans and preferred to live among their Turkish kinsmen than among Europeans. The Turkish government refers to them as “Crimean Turks” and “our kinsmen”.

Given that Tatars were a Turkic group that originated in Northern or Eastern Asia (Siberia), the original Tatars had Northern/Eastern Asian DNA.

As they migrated to Central Asia and then Europe, they mixed with the local, non-Asian populations and acquired non-Asian DNA.

If Tatars had been the “majority” in Crimea prior to its takeover by Russia in 1783, Crimean Tatars would have more than 50% Tatar DNA. But your own “witness” has majority-European not Tatar DNA and this is confirmed by Volga Tatars who are more European than Tatar.

This is entirely natural, as Tatars were a MINORITY that subjugated the local population and imposed its language on the locals. Even you have admitted that Tatars “became the majority by assimilating local populations”. Assimilation of other populations means Tatars assimilating non-Tatar DNA, resulting in Tatars with significant and even overwhelming non-Tatar DNA, e.g., your “witness” or “evidence”!

Three things become obvious from this:

1. Tatars proper were never a majority in Crimea.

2. People currently called “Tatars”, including Crimean Tatars, are in reality mostly European with some Tatar admixture.

3. Not all Crimeans who spoke or speak Tatar (a Turkic language) are Tatars proper. For example, many Tatar-speakers are in fact Greeks, also known as Urums (from Arabic-Turkish Rum, Roman).

This means that Crimean Tatars must be carefully distinguished by their ethnicity:

Tatars proper (with majority North/East Asian DNA).
Ethnically mixed Tatars (with a mixture of Tatar and non-Tatar DNA).
Tatarophone non-Tatars (with non-Tatar DNA but speaking Tatar), e,g., Crimean Greeks.

It follows that when applying the principle that “every country and continent should belong to its rightful owners”, a wide range of factors such as genetics, geography, history, language, and culture must be taken into consideration, and a decision must be taken on the merits of each individual case.

Tatars proper (“Crimean Mongols” or “Crimean Turks”) cannot be regarded as “rightful owners” because they came to the area as invaders.

Moreover, they are currently a small minority and therefore not an issue. It is made an issue by anti-Russian Westerners and CIA-NATO trolls.

In any case, Crimea has never belonged to Ukraine. It was taken by Russia (i.e., local Eastern Europeans) from the Turks (who were invaders from Central Asia) and it has been Russian ever since. So, nope, it doesn't "belong to Ukraine" and even less to America! :grin:
Olivier5 May 27, 2022 at 13:08 #701436
Quoting Isaac
Of course I would be in favour of a diplomatic solution to the blockade,


Does that mean you support Mario Draghi's efforts?
neomac May 27, 2022 at 13:27 #701440
Reply to Apollodorus just more lies about my claims, strawman arguments, reiterated conceptually confused claims, and more shitty pro-Russian propaganda, as if you didn't humiliate yourself enough. I'll let you enjoy your intellectual misery. Yuck!
Apollodorus May 27, 2022 at 13:30 #701442
Reply to neomac

You're doing no more than expose your abject ignorance. But do carry on, by all means .... :lol:
Apollodorus May 27, 2022 at 14:00 #701452
Quoting ssu
There's a difference.


There may be a difference.

However, my point was that (a) even local combatants in those countries don't care much about civilian casualties and (b) the same applies to Western powers that instigate civil wars or uprisings for their own ends, resulting in civilian casualties.

Plus, you're making the same mistake as @Olivier. Focusing exclusively on the number of dead civilians prevents you from seeing the wider ramifications of a conflict and its causes.

As I said, it is true that Russia started the military conflict. But it is equally true that NATO could have avoided the conflict if it had taken into consideration Russia's legitimate security interests.

After all, there must be a reason why Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbas region, and not Finland or America, for example.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 14:51 #701491
Quoting Apollodorus
a reason why Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbas region,


Ports and oil, I'd imagine, using Deep Throat's principle, 'follow the money'.

Talk of ethnicity, democracy, denazification, de-islamification, or removal of oppression, always seem to become important near oilfields.
RogueAI May 27, 2022 at 15:08 #701502
Quoting unenlightened
Talk of ethnicity, democracy, denazification, de-islamification, or removal of oppression, always seem to become important near oilfields.


:100:
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 16:09 #701532
Quoting unenlightened
Ports and oil, I'd imagine, using Deep Throat's principle, 'follow the money'.


Funny how selectively applied such an aphorism is.

unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 17:07 #701570
Reply to Isaac Really? do you have a recent war to which it doesn't apply?
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 17:07 #701572
Quoting unenlightened
Really? do you have a recent war to which it doesn't apply?


I meant by pundits, not perpetrators.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 17:11 #701577
So you agree that it applies impartially to West and East, North and South, Capitalist and Communist, saint and sinner. :smile:

But then you want to try and make a partisan point of it. :sad:
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 17:17 #701582
Quoting unenlightened
you want to try and make a partisan point of it. :sad:


I'm not sure what partisan point you thought I was making, but you've misunderstood. The complaint is against idiots regurgitating media talking points and pretending they're arriving at them via some use of intellectual analysis.

Following the money is, more often than not, applied only post hoc after deciding who the target of blame should be.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 17:33 #701589
Quoting Isaac
Following the money is, more often than not, applied only post hoc after deciding who the target of blame should be.


And who is the target of your blame for this reprehensible post hoc deciding?
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 17:43 #701592
Quoting unenlightened
And who is the target of your blame for this reprehensible post hoc deciding?


In general or specifically? The former are self-defined (those that do it), just as my target for criticism of racism are racists, no further categorisation is justified.

Specifically, we have an example right after your post, giving full approval (100%, apparently) to your assessment, yet in previous assessments dismissing the importance of the billions that arms manufacturers and financial institutions stand to gain from a prolonged war as potential causes.

The unavoidable consequence of following the money is that the putative blame lies with any and all of those who both stand to gain and have the means to bring that gain about.

Here, on this thread, we have ample evidence of people enthusiastic about following the money to Russian actors, but vehemently opposed to any suggestion that a similar process could lay an equal amount of suspicion on American arms dealers, European financial institutions, and Western industries in general who stand to gain billions from a prolonged war which results in a ruined Russia.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 17:52 #701599
Reply to Isaac Yes, that is exactly what I meant by :

Quoting unenlightened
you want to try and make a partisan point of it.


It's really unproductive, serves to diminish the force of the argument I was making, and looks like the finger-pointing attitude it is pointing its finger at. I would like to make a discussion of war that does not mimic its topic, and this does not help me.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 18:30 #701612
Quoting unenlightened
I would like to make a discussion of war that does not mimic its topic, and this does not help me.


Unfortunate then that you're on a public forum whose membership is not limited to those who already agree with you.
ssu May 27, 2022 at 18:32 #701613
Quoting Isaac
If you want to use figures to make the claim that Russia cares less about civilian deaths than America, then you need to compare the actual number of civilian deaths each country has knowingly caused, in total, by it's various actions. Anything less is just lying with statistics.

So let me repeat, again:

Civilian casualties during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (9+ years): 562 000 - 2 000 000 killed

Civilian casualties during the American invasion of Afghanistan (19+ years): 176 000 - 212 000 killed

I think this is quite clear. Same country. Are you genuinely implying that you don't see any difference in the civilian death toll?

This naturally doesn't meant that the latter estimate would be low, it's very high. And we know that the war was a failure, from the start. And there's a lot to criticize the American war in Afghanistan, perhaps starting from the military intervention itself. Yet perhaps you would had to have a larger than life US President who would have had the ability to contain the whole 9/11 attack as a police operation, not make it a military operation and have the FBI seek and find the cabal of Al Qaeda members, just like the US had done with the earlier terrorists that had tried to blow up the WTC years earlier.
RogueAI May 27, 2022 at 18:36 #701614
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/three-possible-futures-for-a-frozen-conflict-in-ukraine/
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 18:40 #701617
Quoting ssu
Are you genuinely implying that you don't see any difference in the civilian death toll?


Difference, yes. Significance to the discussion about whether Russia uniquely doesn't care about civilian casualties, no.

What you've failed to show is any kind of general trend, nor any link between direct military casualties, specifically, and an increased disregard for civilian lives above those destroyed by any other method (such as starvation or pecuniary loan terms).

All you've shown it that in one war nearly half a century ago, a completely different regime which happened to be in the same country as the one currently under consideration, showed a monstrous disregard for civilian casualties resulting from its military territorial practices.

What you've failed to show is that such disregard continued (in scale, it clearly continued in practice), nor that it was uniquely callous compared to other methods of mass slaughter such as withholding food and medicine.
unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 18:47 #701618
Quoting Isaac
Unfortunate then that you're on a public forum whose membership is not limited to those who already agree with you.


Not at all. We can disagree about things without casting moral aspersions at each other or exchanging insults. It is irritating that you use my comments to do that, and unnecessary and unproductive. But I will struggle on. You castigate @RogueAI for agreeing with my post, that you claim also to agree with, and have generally wasted a page of comments creating a disagreement out of nothing at all.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 18:51 #701621
Quoting unenlightened
We can disagree about things without casting moral aspersions at each other or exchanging insults.


Ah, I see. Such as...

Quoting unenlightened
Double down on your stupidity why not?


Quoting unenlightened
your insulting stupidity


unenlightened May 27, 2022 at 19:01 #701625
Quoting Isaac
We can disagree about things without casting moral aspersions at each other or exchanging insults.
— unenlightened

Ah, I see. Such as...

Double down on your stupidity why not?
— unenlightened

your insulting stupidity
— unenlightened


Yes. I am not immune from the general atmosphere, and not proud of it, and that is why I withdraw from discussion sometimes. And yet again you are making a conflict where there is no reason to. I'm going to go quiet now, because our conversation is not productive.
Isaac May 27, 2022 at 19:34 #701633
Quoting unenlightened
yet again you are making a conflict where there is no reason to.


[I]You[/i] accused me of being unnecessarily insulting and unproductive. Not the other way round. In any decent company, it is such an accusation that counts as the cause of the conflict, not the attempt to respond to it. But you do you.
Apollodorus May 27, 2022 at 21:39 #701657
Quoting unenlightened
Ports and oil


The ports of Crimea were Russian from 1783 up to Ukrainian independence in 1991 after which they became "Ukrainian" but on the understanding that Russia would be allowed to use them as bases for its Black Sea Fleet.

All this changed with NATO insisting on its "right of infinite expansion" and on making Ukraine, Crimea, and most of the Black Sea "NATO (i.e., US) territory".
ssu May 28, 2022 at 06:31 #701805
Quoting Isaac
What you've failed to show is any kind of general trend, nor any link between direct military casualties, specifically, and an increased disregard for civilian lives above those destroyed by any other method (such as starvation or pecuniary loan terms).
What I've said is that in the Russian (and earlier Soviet) way of warfare there is an extensive use of artillery.

Of course the most successful large Soviet military operation is actually something we don't call a war, and that is the occupation of Czechoslovakia. The overwhelming use of force and simply pushing quickly the tank columns into the streets of Prague worked: the Czech army didn't try even to defend. This method was again tried in the First Chechen war...with devastating consequences. The armoured columns driving into Grozny were destroyed as the Chechens were willing to fight.

Hence when the first rapid takeover didn't work, Russia went to slow methodical firepower fight and simply clearing the city block by block, basically going back to the warfighting tactics from Stalingrad and Berlin. And this worked. So basically it's no wonder that Russians approach cities and urban areas and just use artillery extensively.

Quoting Isaac
Here, on this thread, we have ample evidence of people enthusiastic about following the money to Russian actors, but vehemently opposed to any suggestion that a similar process could lay an equal amount of suspicion on American arms dealers, European financial institutions, and Western industries in general who stand to gain billions from a prolonged war which results in a ruined Russia.


It would be interesting if you could tell us just who where oppose the idea that " American arms dealers, European financial institutions, and Western industries in general who stand to gain billions from a prolonged war which results in a ruined Russia." Someone might add that it's especially Ukraine that is baring the brunt of the war as the war is fought in Ukraine, not in Russia, and naturally Western financial institutions are anticipating to gain profits from rebuilding Ukraine, not Russia. Perhaps for you this is that "vehement opposition".

And where the big bucks will be made is in the rearmament of the NATO countries, starting with Germany. The fact is that already produced weapons are given to Ukraine, and then these weapons have to be replaced in the countries that have given them. With newer weapons likely.
unenlightened May 28, 2022 at 08:11 #701826
Quoting ssu
Someone might add that it's especially Ukraine that is baring the brunt of the war as the war is fought in Ukraine, not in Russia, and naturally Western financial institutions are anticipating to gain profits from rebuilding Ukraine, not Russia.


Tweedledum and Tweedledee
Agreed to make some money.
And all at Alice's expense,
They thought it very funny.

So Alice found her dress all torn
Her body bruised and broken
While Tweedledum cried "Liberty"
From Dee, "Freedom" was spoken.
Isaac May 28, 2022 at 12:59 #701860
Quoting ssu
What I've said is that in the Russian (and earlier Soviet) way of warfare there is an extensive use of artillery.


Seems to be a theme of yours. The comment was...

Quoting ssu
the numbers from Afghanistan, Syria and the two Chechen wars simply show that Russia doesn't care so much about civilian casualties.


...and it was in response to a comment about America's apparent lack of concern for civilian casualties. Your inability to just say "Yes, that's about right" has again led us down a pointless trail of Wikipedia summaries unrelated to the actual issue. I've no doubt Russia does use a lot of artillery, I've neither the expertise, nor the interest to check. That has nothing whatsoever to do with the discussion that started this whole subsection which was the point made by @Olivier5 that Russians could not believe they were doing something righteous because if they did "they wouldn't bomb civilians so much". A counter argument to @Apollodorus suggesting they could have because American's certainly did and yet caused no fewer civilian casualties.

Your technical point about Russian use of artillery seems almost entirely unrelated. I can see perhaps that their choice to use artillery shows a pretty callous disregard for civilian casualties in military offensives, but America's use of pecuniary loan terms attached to cuts in social spending shows a pretty callous disregard for civilian lives also, just via a different method.

Quoting ssu
It would be interesting if you could tell us just who where oppose the idea that " American arms dealers, European financial institutions, and Western industries in general who stand to gain billions from a prolonged war which results in a ruined Russia."


I didn't say anyone opposed that idea. What I said was that people opposed...

Quoting Isaac
any suggestion that a similar process could lay an equal amount of suspicion on American arms dealers, European financial institutions, and Western industries in general who stand to gain billions from a prolonged war which results in a ruined Russia.


...that much is abundantly evident since not one single post in the entire 260 page thread that lays any blame on the US and Europe has been allowed to stand uncontested.
Apollodorus May 28, 2022 at 13:56 #701883
Quoting Isaac
A counter argument to @Apollodorus suggesting they could have because American's certainly did and yet caused no fewer civilian casualties.


IMHO, the whole point of philosophy is to look beyond appearances by questioning the “officially correct” narrative.

Though the Ukraine conflict is being sold by politicians and the media as a war between Russia and Ukraine, most serious analysts see it as a proxy-war between America and Russia.

Therefore, to get to the bottom of it, we need to look at both sides of the story.

As an illustration, suppose citizen X is involved in a gunfight with citizen Y. Prima facie, X appears to have fired the first shot. This may give the impression that X caused the shooting and tempt us to conclude that he is the “culprit”. But experience tells us that first impressions are not a valid criterion by which to judge a case, as they can be refuted by later evidence or arguments.

A proper judgement can only be made when all the facts of the incident have been established and duly considered.

Things that need to be looked into include:

1. What was done.
2. When it was done.
3. By whom it was done.
4. With what intention.
5. For what motive.

If possible, we also need to look at the history of each party involved.

In contrast, if we decide in advance (a) that Russia is “evil” and (b) that America is not the world’s largest economic, financial, and military empire but some philanthropic organization dishing out free cash and food to the world’s poor and selflessly protecting them from aggressors, then no proper judgement can be arrived at, and no genuine discussion can take place.

This thread could have, and I believe should have, been an interesting discussion. The OP sounds balanced enough to ensure that. Unfortunately, the thread got hijacked by people who were biased against Russia from even before the conflict. Notably among these are people like @ssu and @Christoffer who appear to be from a small country or village on Russia’s border and who may or may not have a legitimate reason to be “afraid of Russia”. What is not legitimate is to allow their fear (or phobia?) to color their analysis of the situation in Ukraine.

This leads to preposterous claims that I am “pro-Russia” or “pro-Putin” when in fact I am pro-Western, but I believe that it is in the West’s best interest for America, Europe, and Russia to be allies, not enemies. Unfortunately, this is impossible when America has made it its life mission to “keep the Germans down and Russia out”.

Also, as I’ve repeatedly pointed out, there are no Russians on this thread. So, with one or two exceptions, the whole thing tends to become an echo chamber for angry Westerners to vent their frustration over Russia daring to challenge America’s New World Order.

IMO this can’t possibly make good philosophy or even good politics. It might be alright for a bit of fun or for people who’ve got nothing else to do to kill time, but it seems pretty pointless otherwise …. :smile:


jorndoe May 28, 2022 at 20:21 #702065
Russia slashes rates in effort to cool rouble’s rapid ascent (May 26, 2022)

Doesn't seem to be a sign of a booming economy.
Demanding trade in rubles (oil, gas, whatever) might push the ruble up some?
What can Russian companies import? (Chinese toys?)

Filtration and forced deportation: Mariupol survivors on the lasting terrors of Russia’s assault (May 26, 2022)

Anyway, it's a land-grab alright, an attempted conquest, like an up-scaled "finders keepers". (As if Russia wasn't large enough already, must be hard to protect against the barbarians at the door.)
The diplomats (when not just for display) may have to wait until Putin's generals/strategists have worked out what they think is feasible, maybe after they've tried a few more things.
Ruinage, looting, killing, displacement, ...
Doubtful that Putin's Russia will pay up, but I'm not going to quit holding it to them either.

Olivier5 May 28, 2022 at 20:59 #702075
Reply to Apollodorus Personally, the general feeling of disgust I have for the Russian side has to see with war crimes being committed, not russophobia.
ssu May 29, 2022 at 10:42 #702280
Quoting Isaac
Your technical point about Russian use of artillery seems almost entirely unrelated. I can see perhaps that their choice to use artillery shows a pretty callous disregard for civilian casualties in military offensives, but America's use of pecuniary loan terms attached to cuts in social spending shows a pretty callous disregard for civilian lives also, just via a different method.

Military tactics on the use of artillery equivalent to cuts in social spending?

Right...
ssu May 29, 2022 at 10:48 #702281
Quoting Apollodorus
I believe that it is in the West’s best interest for America, Europe, and Russia to be allies, not enemies. Unfortunately, this is impossible when America has made it its life mission to “keep the Germans down and Russia out”.

That you don't see anything wrong in the actions that Putin has done, like starting a war with Ukraine, and see the fault in the US simply shows how Pro-Putin you are.
Streetlight May 29, 2022 at 16:39 #702387
https://www-expressen-se.translate.goog/nyheter/sverige-backar-om-vapen-till-turkiet-turbulent-tid/?_x_tr_sl=sv&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

Fuck Sweden
Apollodorus May 29, 2022 at 21:18 #702544
Reply to Olivier5 Reply to ssu

I think what you guys fail to see is that even if aspects of what Russia is doing are wrong (and I never said they weren't!), America still bears a lot of responsibility for Russia's actions.

The fact is that with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in 1991, NATO should have disbanded. But, instead, it decided to expand, shifting its defense line eastward and seeking to draw Ukraine and other former Soviet republics into its orbit.

Indeed, when Ukraine became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991, it had no reason to feel threatened by Russia.

On the contrary, on 8 December 1991, Ukraine joined Russia and Belarus to establish the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to replace the Soviet Union.

These three countries had been the core of the Kievan Rus and later of the Russian Empire and were very close to each other historically, culturally, and linguistically. The logical step to take would have been for them to remain on friendly terms and this was recognized by all three when they formed CIS.

It was NATO leaders who on 6 July 1990 (even before Ukraine became independent) proposed cooperation with all countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

On 20 December 1991, NATO created the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) in which it invited Ukraine and the other CIS countries (former Soviet republics) to participate.

On 22 February 1992, Ukraine announced its intention to pursue a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP).

On 8 February 1994, Ukraine joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program (PfP) that the US government described as a "track that will lead to NATO membership".

On 29 May 1997, Ukraine became a member of NATO’s Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) that replaced the North Atlantic Cooperation Council.

On 24 June 2010 the Ukrainian government approved an action plan to implement an annual national program of cooperation with NATO that included training of Ukrainian troops in the structures of NATO members and joint tactical and strategic exercises with NATO.

On 8 June 2017, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law making integration with NATO "a foreign policy priority”.

On 14 September 2020, Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, "which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO".

IMO what the facts indicate is that the expansion process was initiated by NATO, not by Ukraine.

It is often claimed that countries like Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic wanted to join NATO because they were "scared to death" of Russia. But NATO aimed to incorporate not only smaller Warsaw Pact countries but also Russia itself.

If NATO is a "defensive organization", against whom exactly did Russia need to be “defended” by NATO??? :smile:

Clearly, there was an expansionist agenda on NATO’s part! Russia was initially interested – which, incidentally, demonstrates that it had no hostile intentions – but eventually declined when it realized that joining NATO meant submitting to US domination.

On October 22, 1993, Russian President Yeltsin and US Secretary of State Warren Christopher held a meeting in Moscow.

According to minutes of the meeting,

With a great deal of care and study, President Clinton decided on what recommendation to make to the NATO summit in January. “In this respect your letter came at exactly the right time and it played a decisive role in President Clinton’s consideration.” There could be no recommendation to ignore or exclude Russia from full participation in the future security of Europe. As a result of our study, a “Partnership for Peace” would be recommended to the NATO summit which would be open to all members of the NACC [North Atlantic Cooperation Council] including all European and NIS States [Newly Independent States].
President Yeltsin jumped in at this point and asked if he understood correctly that all countries in CEE and the NIS would, therefore, be on an equal footing and there would be a partnership and not a membership. Secretary Christopher replied, “Yes, that is the case, there would not even be an associate status.” Yeltsin replied, “This is a brilliant idea, it is a stroke of genius.”
President Yeltsin then said that this serves to dissipate all of the tension which we now have in Russia regarding East European States and their aspirations with respect to NATO. It would have been an issue for Russia particularly if it left us in a second class status. Now, under your new idea we are all equal and it will ensure equal participation on the basis of partnership.


Secretary Christopher's meeting with President Yeltsin, 10/22/93, Moscow - National Security Archive

There is absolutely no evidence that Russia at the time had any hostile or expansionist intentions toward the West. It simply wanted to be treated as an equal partner.

Though not put into a formal treaty, it is obvious from official US documents that the understanding was that Russia would not be "ignored or excluded from full participation in the future security of Europe" but integrated in a "Partnership for Peace" which would put Russia and other newly independent former Soviet republics ("NIS") on an equal footing with NATO.

Unfortunately, as in other areas of international relations, “partnership with America” really means submission to American domination which, of course, is unacceptable to Russia.

It follows that the root of the problem is not Russia but NATO expansionism and disregard for Russia’s legitimate security concerns. Russia did not invade Finland or America. It invaded Ukraine because Ukrainian membership of NATO would have put Crimea, the Donbas region, and the Black Sea (which Russia needs for its naval bases and for access to the Mediterranean) under NATO, i.e., US control.

In addition, I’m not at all convinced that thousands of dead civilians, millions of refugees, scores of flattened cities and villages, and destroyed infrastructure, are a price worth paying for a scrap of land that Ukraine could, and should, have peacefully shared with Russia. I think even Ukrainians are beginning to have second thoughts on it.

The currency of war is blood. As families bury their dead, more Ukrainians, like Mitri in Bakhmut, will question the blood price they are paying, and ask whether it is better to pay for a ceasefire with land - or lives.


Ukraine war: 'This is just the beginning, everything is still to come' - BBC News
ssu May 30, 2022 at 06:10 #702723
Quoting Apollodorus
The fact is that with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in 1991, NATO should have disbanded. But, instead, it decided to expand, shifting its defense line eastward and seeking to draw Ukraine and other former Soviet republics into its orbit.

Indeed, when Ukraine became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991, it had no reason to feel threatened by Russia.

On the contrary, on 8 December 1991, Ukraine joined Russia and Belarus to establish the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to replace the Soviet Union.

Except this is all bullshit.

Especially when the siloviks, Putin at the forefront, and not the "Westernizers" took power in Russia. You would had to have some other people in power to fulfill your fairy-tale dream of Russia becoming an ally of the West, Apollodorus. And why? Just ask yourself:

How about Crimea? The desire for Russia to annex Crimea was there all along. The aspirations to join Russia started immediately when Ukraine got it's independence. How many times have we heard here (or in the public) that Nikita Khrushchev had no right to give Crimea to Ukraine and that this meant nothing as all were in the Soviet Union?

Or how about the case of Moldova? There you have the perfect example of the strategy that Russia has implemented all along and in many places: Russian backed proxies starting an insurrection with Russia openly encouraging the Transnistrians to to obtain their independence, then having Russian soldiers (stationed in the republic) becoming "peacekeepers", but de facto backing the proxies and turning the situation into a frozen conflict. Happened in Georgia and was exceptionally successful towards Ukraine in 2014, but not afterwards.

And the list could be continued. It is simply ludicrous to argue that without a NATO, Russia wouldn't have attempted to regain dominance over their "near abroad", the former Soviet Republics. It would have. And it simply would have been more easy for Russia to do. Of course there wouldn't be this pretence of it being a response to NATO aggression, but there would be always many justifications.

The simple facts are:

[b]With or without NATO there would be all those minorities of Russians living in former Soviet Republics (just like Serbs living in other states of Yugoslavia).

With or without NATO Russia wouldn't have change it's views about itself as a Great Power and a peer to the US.[/b]

Hence those imperialist ambitions towards the near abroad would be there with or without NATO. The fall of the Soviet Union was thus is so bizarre, because the coup attempt put Russia directly opposed to the Soviet Union. But that was a passing moment, the great tragedy for leaders like Putin: now you can see that Russia thinks it embodies everything of the Soviet Union, and rarely people think that the other former Republics would have an equal share to the heritage or the spoils of the Union.

So without a NATO, hence likely the Baltics couldn't have wiggled their way out of the Russian "sphere of influence" and wouldn't never have joined the EU and wouldn't be the success story they are.

And we would be thanking our Finlandization now and thinking how stupid West Europeans had been about Russia when they disbanded NATO. And likely we would have an alternative defence organization that Russia would see as an imminent threat to itself.

Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 06:30 #702728
Reply to Apollodorus I am not interested in your war crime apologies. If philosophy has led you there, in this moral cloaca where you cannot even distinguish between an aggressive dictatorship and a defending democracy, then my advice is: burn all your philosophy books, because they made a monster out of you.
unenlightened May 30, 2022 at 08:41 #702754
Quoting Olivier5
this moral cloaca where you cannot even distinguish between an aggressive dictatorship and a defending democracy


It is more history than philosophy which leads some of us there. Tell me more about this moral distinction, that is so clear to you and so imaginary to others. One compares levels of dishonest propaganda, deaths of civilians, abandonment of principles of justice such as torture imprisonment without trial, assassination attempts, etc, etc, and it appears to some of us that the moral high ground is unoccupied by any government. But if you berate folk for even making the comparison and insist that the difference is obvious at the same time, then you cannot expect to convince any sceptic of the righteousness of one cause over another.
Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 09:48 #702761
Quoting unenlightened
it appears to some of us that the moral high ground is unoccupied by any government.


I am not saying that democracies are always right or that they occupy any moral high ground by virtue of being democracies. Some of them are also dysfunctional. They don't actually function as democracies, only formally so.

I am saying though, that there is no moral equivalence between 1) a ruthless militaristic dictatorship and 2) the democracy attacked by 1. That Russia is in the wrong here, and that condemning war crimes doesn't imply any russophobia whatsoever on my side, contrary to what Apo was implying, but common decency instead.
unenlightened May 30, 2022 at 10:03 #702764
Quoting Olivier5
I am saying though, that there is no moral equivalence between 1) a ruthless militaristic dictatorship and 2) the democracy attacked by 1.


You are saying it, but do not seem to be prepared to back it up or consider comparisons made by others. And it is odd considering that the ruthless militaristic dictatorship and the attacked democracy in this case were, within my lifetime at least, one and the same nation. How is it that all the saints of the USSR lived in the West and all the sinners in the East?
Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 10:19 #702766
Quoting unenlightened
You are saying it, but do not seem to be prepared to back it up or consider comparisons made by others.


I am prepared to back it up, if challenged. As for comparisons, those are rarely about Ukraine. They are usually about how equally destructive the US has been. But two wrongs don't make a right.

Quoting unenlightened
And it is odd considering that the ruthless militaristic dictatorship and the attacked democracy in this case were, within my lifetime at least, one and the same nation. How is it that all the saints of the USSR lived in the West and all the sinners in the East?


That is a rather slanted question. I am not trying to essentialise this conflict. There are I suppose historical and geographical reasons why the various republics who emerged from the breakdown of the USSR had diverging political evolutions. Are you denying that Russia is presently a ruthless dictatorship, and/or that Ukraine is a democracy? If not, what are you saying?
Isaac May 30, 2022 at 12:06 #702774
Reply to ssu

Unfortunately your incredulity doesn't constitute an argument.
Isaac May 30, 2022 at 12:17 #702777
Quoting Olivier5
They are usually about how equally destructive the US has been. But two wrongs don't make a right.


Wherein lies the persistent, willful, misrepresentation of all such arguments since no one talking about the US has been doing so by way of 'judgement' of who's 'right'. It's about strategy, and accepting that Ukraine's defence doesn't happen in a vacuum, their choice involves assessing the relative merits of Russian influence vs American/European influence. The influence of neither not being an option.

Who's 'right' and who's 'wrong' is for the puerile moralisers here to agonise over which flag to waive. Anyone with a post-adolescent grasp of politics is discussing the actual outcomes and their impact on Ukraine (and the wider world).

Streetlight May 30, 2022 at 12:28 #702778
Quoting Isaac
Who's 'right' and who's 'wrong' is for the puerile moralisers here to agonise over which flag to waive.


:up:

Can't wait till "good" Swedish weapons explode some Kurdish or Armenian families into bloody little pieces in the hands of Turks because the Swedes were too pussy to stand up to American plans for global supremacy.
Apollodorus May 30, 2022 at 12:42 #702780
Reply to Olivier5 Reply to ssu

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the OP doesn’t seem to disallow “pro-Russian” or “anti-NATO” arguments. So, saying that an argument is “pro-Russian/anti-NATO” isn’t really a valid objection.

Moreover, all I’m arguing is that the conflict involves two parties and that a balanced analysis/discussion requires taking into consideration both sides.

Unfortunately, we’ve got people on here who believe that only the Ukrainian/NATO side should be considered as to do otherwise would be “unprincipled” (Reply to Olivier5)!

Such people are clearly IN DENIAL as they deny the truth of Ukrainian/NATO actions that may have prompted Russia to invade Ukraine.

While in some cases (Type 1, e.g., @Olivier5) this denial may be a conscious decision on grounds of spurious and unexamined “ethical principles”, in other cases (Type 2, e.g., @ssu) it fits the definition of denial as “an unconscious defense mechanism characterized by refusal to acknowledge painful realities, thoughts, or feelings” and seems to be rooted in psychological issues.

In addition to denial, there also seems to be a case of mental confusion (both in Type 1 and Type 2), as such individuals seem to be unable to distinguish between (a) Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine and (b) Russia’s alleged “crimes” against Ukrainian civilians after the invasion.

The facts of the matter are as follows:

1. On June 22, 1994 Russia at NATO’s invitation signed the Partnership for Peace Framework Document (PfP) that according to Clinton was "the track to NATO membership".

So, there can be no doubt that America planned to incorporate Russia into its NATO Empire. But if the purpose of NATO was to “defend its members”, against whom did NATO think it needed to “defend” its prospective member Russia??? Clearly, there was no such need, and this exposes NATO's expansionist agenda!

The truth is that Russia was in a dire economic situation and there were hopes of Western financial and technological assistance that would have come with membership in NATO and other US-EU projects. Yeltsin was an alcoholic who didn't always know what he was doing. And Clinton who as everyone knows is a highly opportunistic character, took full advantage of the situation (as did the Russian kleptocrats, oligarchs, mafia, and their Western accomplices).

2. Russia gave up on cooperation with NATO when it correctly realized that such cooperation meant submission to US domination.

3. Even if “the desire for Russia to annex Crimea was there all along”, it doesn’t mean that this desire was not legitimate, given that Crimea had been Russian since 1783!

But it isn’t my job to educate the ignorant and the uneducated. Folks that are in denial and tend not only to ignore facts but to deny them when they’re pointed out to them, can’t be helped anyway.

If you guys think that what you’re doing is “philosophy”, do carry on, by all means. All I can say is that after nearly 8K posts, this thread is getting far too repetitive and pointless, and beginning to look like some social club for the retired and the unemployed. Boring for the most part, hilarious at times, but at the end of the day, there’re much better things to do in life …. :grin:


baker May 30, 2022 at 12:45 #702782
Quoting creativesoul
Why is it so hard to consider the possibility that it might actually be good for a country to ask Russia to take it under its wing? Or at least to see it as a matter of their own interest to be on friendly terms with Russia?
— baker

Wondering if you still think this way???


Of course.

It's the notion that one can hate and despise someone and consider them their enemy, but still expect this party to be nice and harmless that is absurd.
Isaac May 30, 2022 at 13:35 #702795
Reply to Streetlight

Apparently, the moral lines are absolutely clear between what Russia are doing and what Amnesty describe (of Turkey) as ...

an utterly callous disregard for civilian lives, launching unlawful deadly attacks in residential areas that have killed and injured civilians


We must immediately enable the latter to fight the former, all because the likes of the commentators here can't handle anything with a moral complexity greater than that of Star Wars.
unenlightened May 30, 2022 at 13:37 #702796
Quoting Olivier5
Ate you denying that Russia is presently a ruthless dictatorship, and/or that Ukraine is a democracy? If not, what are you saying?


I am denying that there is a vast moral difference between them on the grounds that I do not see a vast moral difference between governments in general. Power has no morality, but only competence, expediency, and habit. Thus I expect and see evidence of the same corruption, manipulation by oligarchs, and so on whether I am looking at the US, UK, Ukraine, or Russia. Which countries indulge in military adventures abroad at any particular moment is nothing to do with the moral fibre of the country, and everything to do with economic advantage and the possibility of profit, financial or power-wise.

Of course geography and history have a role as well, but I do not see nations foregoing any horror on purely moral grounds, but only on the grounds that they won't be able to get away with it. I am open to persuasion that say, Ukraine preferred to cede some territory rather than enter a long struggle with separatists, or that any supporters of Ukraine have done something noble and disadvantageous. Do you have an example at all?
Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 13:57 #702804
Quoting unenlightened
I am denying that there is a vast moral difference between them on the grounds that I do not see a vast moral difference between governments in general.


To what extent is this judgement based on your own personal experience with different modes or types of governments? Because this strikes me as something a person would say from the safe comfort of a First World armchair.
unenlightened May 30, 2022 at 14:31 #702820
Quoting Olivier5
To what extent is this judgement based on your own personal experience with different modes or types of governments? Because this strikes me as something a person would say from the safe confine of a First World armchair.


My personal experience of living under governments is entirely First world, and only 2 European countries at that. What is your personal experience that gives you the advantage?
Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 14:40 #702825
Reply to unenlightened I have lived and worked in many places, in Africa and Asia, including countries where the state jails or kills folks for their ideas, with total impunity. It takes some getting used to. And people in these countries do not speak so lightly about democracy being so to speak "just the same thing as dictatorship but with voting booths". They often hope it makes a difference.
Manuel May 30, 2022 at 15:59 #702859
Quoting Apollodorus
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the OP doesn’t seem to disallow “pro-Russian” or “anti-NATO” arguments. So, saying that an argument is “pro-Russian/anti-NATO” isn’t really a valid objection.


Correct. There are obvious biases, proclivities and lenses through which we look at this war. It is tempting, because if it often true, to say that a poster here is "pro-West/Anti-Russia" or "Pro Russia/ Anti-NATO". And all varieties of such combinations.

Nevertheless, once we reach a point in which such accusations are made, I see little by way of argument that could persuade a person on any side.

There's been much discussion here, and I've only skimmed a good portion of it, but my feeling is that @Isaac is correct in the following: that we are responsible for what our governments do and can act on that to some extent.

Unless we are Russian (and even then it's hard, given the current regime in Russia) we can't do much about it. And merely saying how horrible Russia is, over and over, is convenient moralizing.

I draw exceptions with people living next to Russia, but besides that, its just much easier to condemn Russia, than what's happening in say, Yemen, which is almost entirely the fault of the US. But, people wave flags, for good and ill.
Changeling May 30, 2022 at 16:02 #702860
Quoting Manuel
what's happening in say, Yemen, which is almost entirely the fault of the US.


I thought that was Iran's and Saudi Arabia's fault?
Manuel May 30, 2022 at 16:08 #702866
Reply to Changeling

Who supplies the arms to Saudi Arabia? You think SA would dare due this if they US didn't allow it?

Iran is blown way out of proportion due to Israeli interests.

Nevertheless, don't want to derail the main topic here. It's easier to condemn an enemy than admit the faults of one's own state.

This very much applies to the Russia war in Ukraine.
Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 16:58 #702880
Quoting Isaac
Anyone with a post-adolescent grasp of politics is discussing the actual outcomes and their impact on Ukraine (and the wider world).


I don't know whom you are talking about. Who are all these guys, and where are they discussing the impact on Ukraine, or the rest of the world?
ssu May 30, 2022 at 17:06 #702881
Quoting Apollodorus
3. Even if “the desire for Russia to annex Crimea was there all along”, it doesn’t mean that this desire was not legitimate, given that Crimea had been Russian since 1783!

Here we have the real apologist in action.

Giving this legitimacy to the actions of Russia, after it had recognized the independence of Ukraine on 2nd of December 1991 and afterwards when it had specifically recognized the borders of Ukraine in the Budapest memorandum shows deliberately you being a Putin troll. It seems you mentally block out what it means to recognize the independence of another state.

So according to our troll, Crimea is a different matter. Because it had been Russian since 1783!

And you're desperately clinging on to your strawman arguments. I've said that Russia sees NATO and NATO enlargement as a threat. We have seen Russia's response now when Sweden and Finland have made the application. Where I simply disagree is that without NATO, Russia would be this peaceful country that would have left it's neighbors like Ukraine alone, with their large Russian speaking minorities. That simply wouldn't have happened and didn't happen under the former KGB-men now in charge of Russia. And you have been quite active in making their case.

If someone like Boris Nemtsov and his supporters would have been the leaders of Russia, that peaceful coexistence could have happened, even if the Chechens surely would have been smashed (as being inside the borders of Russia proper). But that's a lot of historical what if -thinking.

unenlightened May 30, 2022 at 18:41 #702918
Quoting Olivier5
I have lived and worked in many places, in Africa and Asia, including countries where the state jails or kills folks for their ideas, with total impunity. It takes some getting used to.


Excellent! Perhaps you can share your experience a little. what countries are top of the moral pops? My feeling is that I would prefer a wealthy country to a poor one, a stable one to an unstable one, a well organised one to a badly organised one, a peaceful one to a violent, and so on. and I feel I know in a general way how to start estimating these things. Do you think of the morality of a country in these terms or in some other way?
ssu May 30, 2022 at 19:17 #702930
Quoting Manuel
Iran is blown way out of proportion due to Israeli interests.


Likely in this case because of Sunni fears. Saudi Arabia has a history of entangling itself into the affairs of Yemen. Earlier the threat was Egypt and Nasserism threatening Saudi Arabia's "interests" in Yemen. Now Egypt has been replaced by Iran, but otherwise it's quite like the North Yemen Civil War in the 1960's.

On the royalist side, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israel supplied military aid, and Britain gave covert support, while the republicans were supported by Egypt (then formally known as the United Arab Republic) and were supplied warplanes from the Soviet Union. Both foreign irregular and conventional forces were involved. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser supported the republicans with as many as 70,000 Egyptian troops and weapons. Despite several military actions and peace conferences, the war sank into a stalemate by the mid-1960s.
Isaac May 30, 2022 at 19:32 #702942
Quoting Olivier5
Who are all these guys, and where are they discussing the impact on Ukraine, or the rest of the world?


It's all we've ever been discussing. I can't be responsible for the fact that you're too stupid to understand the conversation.
Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 19:34 #702945
Quoting unenlightened
Do you think of the morality of a country in these terms or in some other way?


I would add a number of unalienable rights to the list, such as the right of thinking and saying more or less what you want to, the right to private property, protection against arbitrary violence and so forth.

neomac May 30, 2022 at 19:45 #702957
Quoting Manuel
we are responsible for what our governments do and can act on that to some extent.


How?
Isaac May 30, 2022 at 19:47 #702960
Quoting Olivier5
people in these countries do not speak so lightly about democracy being so to speak "just the same thing as dictatorship but with voting booths". They often hope it makes a difference.


I'm sure @unenlightened will follow whatever line of argument he sees fit, but by way of not losing an important point I think was raised... unenlightened did not reference 'democracy'.

The point (as I understood it) was about governments. Actual governments. People living in some tyrannical dictatorship may well want 'democracy', but that's not the same as saying they'd want the American government, or the UK government. Nor is it the same as saying they'd want those governments for the world at large.

Unless you're arguing 'might makes right', then simply pointing to a government individuals tend to prefer is insufficient ground to make a moral argument.

The point unenlightened was making, which I thought a pertinent one, was that there's insufficient gap between actual governments to justify the sort of extreme moral caricatures being drawn here. That's not the same as saying democracy is no better than tyranny, it's saying that actual existent democratic governments are insufficiently better than actual tyrannical governments to justify a certain level of moral side-taking.
Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 19:56 #702977
Reply to Isaac Here is the background, and it's clearly about dictatorship vs democracy:

Quoting unenlightened
Are you denying that Russia is presently a ruthless dictatorship, and/or that Ukraine is a democracy? If not, what are you saying?
— Olivier5

I am denying that there is a vast moral difference between them on the grounds that I do not see a vast moral difference between governments in general.


Olivier5 May 30, 2022 at 20:07 #702990
Quoting Isaac
. I can't be responsible for the fact that you're too stupid to understand the conversation.


Show me one single post of yours discussing the possible consequences of this war on Ukraine.
Manuel May 30, 2022 at 21:52 #703056
Reply to neomac

By pressuring our governments, voting our politicians in or out, engaging in demonstrations that could push or stop legislation, sending letters to our representatives all of which are an essential part of democracy.

As we are not citizens of Russia, we do not have this option - and also they get arrested if they do protest.

Reply to ssu

Yes, it has a very long, ugly history, curiously supporting the more radical elements of Islam, which often coincide (not always) with Western economic and military interests.

Nevertheless, that's a topic deserving of its own thread.
Apollodorus May 30, 2022 at 22:23 #703074
Quoting ssu
It seems you mentally block out what it means to recognize the independence of another state.


On the contrary, it’s YOU who’s blocking out the fact that a state can de-recognize something it previously recognized if circumstances change!!! :rofl:

In December 1991 Ukraine was a friendly state and co-member with Russia of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This began to change after 1994 when Ukraine decided to get closer and closer to NATO, and America and its NATO Empire tried to bring Russia under their domination, with the result that US-Russia relations soured.

As for the “Budapest Memorandum” of 1994, you obviously don’t know what you’re talking about. It’s a well-known fact that that memorandum was only a formality that without a sanctions mechanism provided no real guarantees to Ukraine.

When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine waved the agreement but to no avail. Theoretically, you could argue that Russia violated the agreement by annexing Crimea, but then so did America and other signatories by refusing to take any action.

Plus, the memorandum was just an American trick to get Ukraine to get rid of its nukes that America claimed were directed at it. So, basically, you’re doing nothing except expose yourself as a clueless NATO Nazi!

Anyway, now that Turkey’s Sublime Sultan Erdogan has vowed to personally assist Finland to join NATO as fast as possible, you’ve got nothing to fear. I’m sure you’ll be in by Friday after prayers. Whether it’s gonna be this Friday, or this year, or this century, is hard to tell. But that’s another story …. :rofl:

Quoting Manuel
its just much easier to condemn Russia, than what's happening in say, Yemen, which is almost entirely the fault of the US.


Well, yes. It tends to be folks that allow themselves to be guided by emotions (@Olivier5), propaganda (@ssu), or political ideology (@Christoffer), instead of reason. In any case, when they start saying that it is “unprincipled” to consider all the facts, you know that this is getting toxic .... :grin:

I for one think that it makes more sense to see (1) territorial claims, (2) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and (3) alleged Russian “war crimes” as separate issues.

Real war crimes are established through evidence-based legal process, not through Ukrainian propaganda or allegations made by Western media outfits and NATO activists.

Besides, not being on the ground in Ukraine, we can’t know for sure what’s happening and bombing residential buildings isn’t necessarily proof of intent to harm civilians.

Obviously, Russia’s actual goal is to hit Ukraine’s military facilities and troops. But my guess is that the Russians are simply using the weapons they’ve got, i.e., old-fashioned multiple rocket launchers that fire unguided rockets. Even when they’re using guided missiles, if the military target is close to civilian areas, collateral damage can’t always be avoided.

In any case, until such “crimes” have been officially established, it is pointless to even start speculating about them.

The central issue for now remains the legitimacy of claims made by both sides in relation to territorial and security concerns.

From what I see, no one has demonstrated that placing the ethnic-Russian Donbas region, Crimea, and the Black Sea under NATO, i.e., under US control, should be of no concern to Russia!

And, as I said before, much of what’s posted on this thread isn’t philosophical statements but the politically-motivated (and/or Covid-19-affected?) outbursts of angry, middle-aged Western males trying to vent their frustration over Russia’s challenge to America’s neo-colonialist New (or not-so-new) World Order.

And you’re absolutely right about Western duplicity and hypocrisy. NATO member Turkey has repeatedly invaded Kurdish territories in Syria and has proudly announced that it will do so again:

Erdogan: Turkey's Syria operation could happen 'suddenly' - The Independent

Thousands of Kurdish civilians killed, millions displaced or deported, thousands of villages destroyed. Is America or NATO giving drones, howitzers, and missile launchers to the Kurds to defend their national sovereignty and territorial integrity???

Of course not. On the contrary, NATO claims that Turkey has “legitimate security concerns” in the region and seems to think that it can murder as many innocent Kurdish men, women, and children, as it pleases! Not to mention the massacres and other atrocities committed against Kurds (and others) in Turkey itself. And what do our "moralists" here have to say? "NATO doesn't get involved in the internal affairs of its members"!
Manuel May 30, 2022 at 22:52 #703097
Reply to Apollodorus

I don't think it's even possible to have a modern day war, without committing war crimes. It comes with the territory.

I do agree that the evidence needs to examined by independent legal scholars, looking at the facts - as far isolated from ideology as possible. But to get rid of ideology entirely I don't think is possible.

It's part of being human, to have biases. It need not be bad.

But sure, hypocrisy from the West, no doubt at all about that.
creativesoul May 31, 2022 at 01:01 #703151
Quoting baker
Why is it so hard to consider the possibility that it might actually be good for a country to ask Russia to take it under its wing? Or at least to see it as a matter of their own interest to be on friendly terms with Russia?
— baker

Wondering if you still think this way???
— creativesoul

Of course.

It's the notion that one can hate and despise someone and consider them their enemy, but still expect this party to be nice and harmless that is absurd.


This is working from an emaciated set of morals. That all depends upon how we treat others, including our enemies(those whom we despise and hate), doesn't it?

Peaceful co-existence need only require that one sovereign nation respect another. The same is true of individual people. One can consider another an enemy on certain terms and in certain non violent, non harmful ways. These terms and ways do not cause harm. Nor do they seek any unnecessary unprovoked offensive violence towards this enemy. Seeing another as an enemy is in itself insufficient ground for the enemy to cause retaliatory harm. So, no it is not the least absurd to be able to expect to see another as an enemy(in nice and harmless ways), and completely expect the enemy to be and remain nice and harmless.

One can peacefully co-exist with one's enemy if both should so choose.




One can see another as the enemy of self-governance.

Here is the overlap Un and Isaac have been skirting around. There are some in all governments, I would suspect, who are such. Whether or not they are knowingly and intentionally against self-governance for the sake of being so(authoritarians), or whether they act in ways contradictory and harmful to such governments(too many to capture here), I would consider these people enemies of self-governance.

The hallmarks(actual results) of good self-governance are shown in the actual lives and livelihoods of the overwhelming majority. Good government produces quality lives.
creativesoul May 31, 2022 at 01:09 #703153
Quoting Apollodorus
In December 1991 Ukraine was a friendly state and co-member with Russia of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This began to change after 1994 when Ukraine decided to get closer and closer to NATO, and America and its NATO Empire tried to bring Russia under their domination, with the result that US-Russia relations soured.


'Empire', 'domination'...

Rhetorical drivel.

Key words:Ukraine decided...

Ukraine liked what NATO and the west had to offer it as a sovereign country. Russia did not. Some in the Ukrainian territory were/are unhappy about it. Others(it seems the overwhelming majority) were/are fine with it.
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 05:38 #703243
Quoting creativesoul
Key words:Ukraine decided...


In what naive world do you imagine that the enormous political might of America and Europe simply stood back and said to Ukraine "it's your choice, we'll not try to influence you in any way"?

It's funny in a world where we wouldn't even trust a used car salesman to give an honest pitch, people seem to have tremendous trouble with the idea that the world's most powerful nations might not be fully honest and on the level in their dealings with other countries.

The West runs something little short of a protection racket and people still want to believe they're running a 1950s sweet shop.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 06:11 #703255
Quoting Manuel
I don't think it's even possible to have a modern day war, without committing war crimes. It comes with the territory.


So Hitler and Stalin were in the right, and the Red Cross are fools. Good to know.

Quoting Manuel
As we are not citizens of Russia, we do not have this option - and also they get arrested if they do protest.


We do have the option of protesting against the Russian government. And we can do it on behalf of all decent Russians.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 06:14 #703257
"War crime" is a tautology.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 06:18 #703258
Reply to Streetlight Nice example of the Putinistas' political philosophy: cynicism and nihilism.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 06:19 #703259
Reply to Olivier5 Lol, yes, because I think war is a crime. If this makes me a 'Putinista' then you bet I'm a Putinista, so long as we are evacuating words of all meaning.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 06:23 #703260
Reply to Streetlight I feel sorry for you too. It must be sad to be you. It's already depressing to have you around.

Of course war is a crime. But who started this war? Your honey bunny Putin did.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 06:24 #703261
Reply to Olivier5 So you agree with me but just want to talk shit? OK.

Must be sad to be so insecure.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 06:27 #703262
Reply to Streetlight I don't do war crime apologies, sorry.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 06:27 #703263
Reply to Olivier5 You don't English either, apparently.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 06:30 #703264
Reply to Streetlight Better than you though.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 06:31 #703265
Quoting Olivier5
I don't war crime apologies


Pre-edit.

Lol.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 06:31 #703266
Reply to Streetlight Sooo funny.

Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 06:34 #703267
Anyway it's great how Germany is literally changing its constitution to appease weapon mongerers and merchants of death:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-29/germany-to-change-constitution-to-enable-110-billion-defense-fund

"BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany has agreed to change its constitution to allow for a credit-based special defense fund of 100 billion euros ($107.35 billion) proposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the German finance ministry announced on Sunday. Germany's centre-right opposition and ruling coalition with centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) said they reached the required two-thirds majority to exempt the defense fund from a constitutional debt brake."

It's always good fun when Germany is armed to the teeth. That has always gone well.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 06:34 #703268
What other funny funny jokes could one make about war crimes? Any proposal? It's always good to start the day with maximum cynicism.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 06:46 #703270
Additional fun from the Western media:

British empire smut rag The Times has a new article out titled "Azov Battalion drops neo-Nazi symbol exploited by Russian propagandists," which has got to be the most hilarious headline of 2022 so far (and I'm including The Onion and other intentionally funny headlines in the running).

"The Azov Battalion has removed a neo-Nazi symbol from its insignia that has helped perpetuate Russian propaganda about Ukraine being in the grip of far-right nationalism," The Times informs us. "At the unveiling of a new special forces unit in Kharkiv, patches handed to soldiers did not feature the wolfsangel, a medieval German symbol that was adopted by the Nazis and which has been used by the battalion since 2014. Instead, they featured a golden trident, the Ukrainian national symbol worn by other regiments."

Yeah that's how you solve Ukraine's Nazi problem. A logo change.


https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/empire-solves-ukraines-nazi-problem?s=w
Noble Dust May 31, 2022 at 06:56 #703274
Quoting Streetlight
I don't war crime apologies
— Olivier5

Pre-edit.

Lol.


A classic example of why you are not a trustworthy human being and have the sense of humor of a child. Thank Cthulhu you're no longer a mod.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 06:57 #703275
Reply to Noble Dust Because I quoted his words back at him before he changed it?
Noble Dust May 31, 2022 at 06:59 #703277
Reply to Streetlight

I shouldn't have to spell this out, X.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 07:02 #703279
Reply to Noble Dust OK. Stay classy.
Noble Dust May 31, 2022 at 07:03 #703280
Quoting Streetlight
Stay classy.


:rofl: :vomit:
creativesoul May 31, 2022 at 07:06 #703282
Quoting Isaac
In what naive world do you imagine that the enormous political might of America and Europe simply stood back and said to Ukraine "it's your choice, we'll not try to influence you in any way"?


Those are not mutually exclusive notions; influence and choice. Of course the west wanted Ukraine to join forces. There was something in it for the west as well as Ukraine, otherwise the west would not have been interested, nor would Ukraine.

Just because the US policy has a sorted history of hidden agendas and not so honest means, it does not follow that every US decision or policy has a hidden agenda and dishonest means.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 07:07 #703283
Literally every US decision or policy has a hidden agenda and dishonest means.
creativesoul May 31, 2022 at 07:07 #703284
Reply to Streetlight

I do not agree.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 07:09 #703285
Reply to creativesoul Then you haven't been paying attention.
creativesoul May 31, 2022 at 07:10 #703286
Reply to Streetlight

At the person... fail!

I am a Noam Chomsky 'fan'. For whatever that's worth around here.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 07:16 #703290
Quoting creativesoul
For whatever that's worth around here.


Nothing, apparently.

It is amazing that the US can literally lie, fuck-up, and cause untold destruction in literally every war and foreign policy intervention it has ever been involved in since the beginning of time, and people will still be like "it's different this time I swear bro".
creativesoul May 31, 2022 at 07:20 #703294
Reply to Streetlight

Well, I'm not even going to attempt to defend most of our foreign policy decisions during my lifetime. Ukraine begged for help. Russia clearly seems the aggressor. Yes, the US does not have a stellar history of supporting duly elected leaders unless those leaders are the ones who are 'friendly' to the US and it's financial interests. So...

The claim of 'standing up for democracy' rings hollow.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 07:22 #703295
Quoting creativesoul
Yes, the US does not have a stellar history of supporting duly elected leaders unless those leaders are the ones who are 'friendly' to the US and it's financial interests.


It's not history, it's happening right now, and will continue to happen. Russia is the aggressor. The US just did everything in its power to ensure this would be the case.
creativesoul May 31, 2022 at 07:23 #703297
Quoting Streetlight
The US just did everything in its power to ensure this would be the case.


Spell this out in a bit more detail...
unenlightened May 31, 2022 at 07:26 #703299
Reply to Olivier5 you seem to be talking about the fact that some countries are more pleasant to live in than others, rather than their moral standing.
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 07:42 #703303
Quoting creativesoul
Just because the US policy has a sorted history of hidden agendas and not so honest means, it does not follow that every US decision or policy has a hidden agenda and dishonest means.


So, we just give them the benefit of the doubt, every time? What is it about their behaviour that makes you think they deserve the benefit of the doubt?

If someone has a long history of racism and they discriminate against a black person in a job interview, do you assume the discrimination was racially motivated, or do you assume it was, just this once, a fair judgement?

We're not in a court of law here. The US aren't about to be executed if we find them guilty of unfair influence, presumption of innocence does nothing here but continually excuse their actions.

A pragmatic political approach assumes each actor will act roughly according to their recent past behaviour, why would we not?
creativesoul May 31, 2022 at 08:04 #703317
Quoting Isaac
So, we just give them the benefit of the doubt, every time? What is it about their behaviour that makes you think they deserve the benefit of the doubt?


Ukraine chose to build financial and diplomatic relations with the west, against the wishes of Russia and it's leaders.

Sure, there are agendas held by the west. There are benefits for the west. There were benefits for Ukraine as well. Call US diplomatic relations and NATO a protection racket if you like, though I think that's a bit too strong a language choice given that the US was the one paying the most for it.

All I am saying is that not all mutual benefit and agendas are nefarious.







Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 08:05 #703320
Reply to unenlightened It seems to me that this is how you think of it. I mentioned human rights, which can be unpleasant to protect, so in my view pleasantness is not a criterion. The common good is more like it. One must tolerate a lot of unpleasantness to live in society, but if we spread this unpleasantness around equitably, then it becomes a fair, and hence tolerable, social contract.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 08:36 #703342
Quoting creativesoul
Spell this out in a bit more detail...


There are 264 pages of discussion about this for you to read about this topic. In lieu of that, here is one single discussion among millions of others:

https://mate.substack.com/p/by-using-ukraine-to-fight-russia?s=r

Worth noting, that, contrary to the story-tale that Ukraine 'chose' to deal with the West, the West couped Ukraine exactly at the time at which it choose to stop dealing with the West, as outlined in the article.

---

A basic rule of thumb for assessing world politics: assume the worst about US intervention overseas, and the truth will be roughly twice as murderous and disgusting as that.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 08:56 #703348
Quoting Noble Dust
Thank Cthulhu you're no longer a mod.


Street was a mod once?

I hear he's considered very smart around here, which says a lot about this place.
SophistiCat May 31, 2022 at 08:59 #703351
Quoting Manuel
Unless we are Russian (and even then it's hard, given the current regime in Russia) we can't do much about it. And merely saying how horrible Russia is, over and over, is convenient moralizing.

I draw exceptions with people living next to Russia, but besides that, its just much easier to condemn Russia, than what's happening in say, Yemen, which is almost entirely the fault of the US. But, people wave flags, for good and ill.


And yet you started this discussion about a "Ukraine crisis" - events in which the main participants are Russia and Ukraine (in that order, since Russia initiated the crisis and, being the more powerful actor, commands more initiative and holds more responsibility). If your position is that people should only discuss the goings-on in their home countries, then why did you open this discussion in the first place? If you only want to talk about how bad the US is (a perfectly legitimate topic) then why do this under the pretense of discussing something else?
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 09:18 #703353
Reply to SophistiCat @Manuel's idea could be summarized as follows:

IFF you are Russian, then you would have good moral grounds to criticize the Russia government, but unfortunately you are not allowed to do so. And IFF you are not Russian, then criticizing the Russia government is morally fraudulent, although legally permissible.

So when it is moral to criticize the Russian government, it is illegal; and when it's legal, then it's immoral.

Nice catch 22, isn't it?
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 10:48 #703359
Quoting creativesoul
Ukraine chose to build financial and diplomatic relations with the west, against the wishes of Russia and it's leaders.


As @Streetlight has already mentioned, this is simply not true.

We obviously have a fuzzy definition of sorts - technically one 'chooses' to follow the demands of the person with a gun to your head, but we don't normally call that a choice.

Ukraine were about to make a choice one way, the US (and parts of Europe) intervened in a very substantive manner to reverse that decision. That level of interference is not what we'd normally call a free choice.

Quoting creativesoul
All I am saying is that not all mutual benefit and agendas are nefarious.


Perhaps not, but it remains the case that most are, it therefore remains the case that a least biased default would be to assume this one was (in the absence of evidence to the contrary), and it remains the case that there's little to no such evidence to the contrary.

As such, the most rational position would be that this decision was not made as a free choice.

In summary - the US usually interfere to limit the choices of nations who might oppose them, they had ample opportunity to do so here, there's no evidence to show they didn't. So why would we assume they didn't?
SophistiCat May 31, 2022 at 10:54 #703364
Reply to Olivier5 lol. I am not even disagreeing with the idea that we should be more concerned with that which we can influence, or at least that which can influence us - and for the most part, that's how it plays out anyway. Within reason, such natural tendencies to be more concerned with and feel more responsible over that which is closest to you are a good thing*. But, as with everything, things can get ugly or ridiculous in excess. Parochialism driven to excess leads in some cases to selfish indifference to suffering and injustice, and in others - to obsessive, hateful conspirology, in which the object of obsession obscures everything else in sight.

* Italians have a cosy term for this - campanilismo (campanilism)
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 10:56 #703366
Quoting SophistiCat
If your position is that people should only discuss the goings-on in their home countries, then why did you open this discussion in the first place?


No one's position is that we should only discuss the goings-on in our home countries.

The position being espoused is that we should primarily concern ourselves with the actions of those actors over which we have some influence (our own governments and their allies). Those actions may well (as here) take place in a foreign country.

But then I suspect you knew that already, which just shows the paucity of your argument against the actual position that you had to devise such an obvious straw man to knock down.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 11:22 #703372
Reply to SophistiCat The reference to la lingua di Dante is much appreciated. :-) Campanile (it) = clocher (fr) = church tower (en). Campanilismo = esprit de clocher = parochialism.

I appreciate the rooted nature of all cultures but to me, the most interesting place is between cultures, and what happens there, on the margins of one's culture, in that no man land.

A lot of posters here seem deeply parochial to me; anglo-saxon to be precise; unaware that the world is a big and complicated place; and quite sneering about anything that comes from beyond the confine of their little world.

I like you tho. :love:
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 11:24 #703375
Quoting SophistiCat
Parochialism driven to excess


Well, at least your rhetorical tactics have risen above the level of a high school debating class. This one I like. Set up your objection as categorical (@Manuel categorically should not have started an OP about Ukraine if he only wanted to talk about the actions of the US), then change your objection to a qualitative one (the complaints are too parochial), and hope no one notices during the switch that you've avoided making any argument for how to measure what is too parochial.
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 11:39 #703380
Quoting Olivier5
unaware that the world is a big and complicated place


Brilliant. You don't disappoint. So now your argument that "Russia is evil, Ukraine are good, and America are just benevolent bystanders" is the worldly and complex one!

Well. That's cheered up my lunchtime.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 11:47 #703382
Reply to Isaac Your petty mind and your constant lies should really fuck off.
Moses May 31, 2022 at 11:59 #703383
I'm not going to comment on the geopolitical situation, but it should be well-established by now that the professionalism of the Russian military is eroding. The conduct of their ground forces has been abysmal between murders and rapes, and this will likely have the unfortunate consequence of sparking anti-Russian prejudice. The real problem isn't with the Russian people, but with Russian institutions, namely the military culture. When institutions erode and a kleptocracy uses its youth as cannon fodder it's no wonder we see this type of behavior. Unfortunately many people won't see this and I suspect we'll see a bump in anti-Russian prejudice as war crimes continue.

Institutions mold people. I write as a veteran.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 12:04 #703384
Quoting Isaac
Brilliant. You don't disappoint. So now your argument that "Russia is evil, Ukraine are good, and America are just benevolent bystanders" is the worldly and complex one!


The 'complexity' argument on the side of people who are like "everything is exactly as the US news media portrays it and anyone who says different is a Putin sympathiser" is wild.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 12:07 #703385
Quoting Moses
sparking anti-Russian prejudice


Hatred would be a better word here. The Ukrainians and Russians used to be brothers; now they will positively hate one other for generations.
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 12:21 #703389
Reply to Streetlight

Yep. A minute ago considering the US's role in this was overly complicating a simple issue, now doing so is excessively simplistic and parochial. What a shame we missed it when it was just right!
Moses May 31, 2022 at 12:27 #703390
Reply to Olivier5

Agree. I don't think a lot of people realize how rotten the Russian military is as an institution. There's been frequent reports of serious hazing problems with junior enlisted, and that kind of thing gives rise to a culture of rule-breaking and nihilism where regulations no longer matter. Everyone wants to be an officer in Russia so the enlisted, the ones who frequently carry out mission execution, get neglected. One of the nice things about the US military is how they pay special attention to their enlisted. I just don't get the sense that the Russian enlisted trust their officer corp to have their best interest in mind.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 12:30 #703391
Quoting Moses
There's been frequent reports of serious hazing problems with junior enlisted


Yes, seen that. It's often an ultra violent environment, apparently. So no wonder they kill people for fun, if that how they themselves are treated by their superiors.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 12:30 #703392
Reply to Isaac My favourite one is when literally every shill was on board with "omg it's not a proxy war Ukranian aGeNcY" only for Biden to be like "yes we are trying to get rid of Putin" on national TV and people just... pretended it didn't happen, much to the delight and relief of Lockheed and Boeing not to mention the entire German and Swedish arms industry. It's so nice of the Ukranians to drop dead for American interests, real nice of them.
neomac May 31, 2022 at 12:31 #703393
Quoting Moses
The real problem isn't with the Russian people, but with Russian institutions, namely the military culture.


We can't say that the Russian people aren't the problem either. The support for Putin (celebrated as a great leader like Stalin) and his war is pretty high in Russia and I doubt this is only due to the regime propaganda (propaganda seems so effective because Russians may be predisposed to it due to historical anti-Western feelings ingrained in their culture). Western people are a problem too: in the West there is great polarization toward this war, there are many pro-Russian or anti-NATO/WEST/EU/(NEO)CAPITALIST/GLOBALISATION whatever you want to call them.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 12:35 #703396
Reply to neomac The western Putinistas are a small minority in most countries, tho a vocal one.
neomac May 31, 2022 at 12:46 #703399
Reply to Olivier5 right, but I wouldn't underestimate their impact on a larger scale: indeed they are very vocal also because they have gained support also from mainstream media and politicians too (both in the US and in the EU see Italy & Salvini).
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 12:48 #703400
A vocal minority with fingers in media and politician pies gee I wonder do they have big noses too?
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 12:49 #703401
Quoting Olivier5
The western Putinistas are a small minority in most countries, tho a vocal one.


Cool. Is anyone else playing cliché bingo, @Streetlight? I've just got a full line with "the silent majority agree with me...".

I'm waiting for "This is what we fought the Nazis for...", then I've got a full house.
neomac May 31, 2022 at 12:49 #703402
Reply to Streetlight small brain.
Moses May 31, 2022 at 12:49 #703403
Reply to Olivier5

imo hazing reinforces the notion that rules don't matter and that might makes right; if you're in a position of power and you want to mess with your subordinates then go for it, there will be no punishment as the war institution condones it. it also reinforces the notion that one's superiors are in no way people to be relied on.

Reply to neomac

i get what you're saying just keep in mind that under dictatorships the prudent need to stay quiet for their own safety.

Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 12:51 #703404
Reply to neomac I don't know. Here in Italy, pro-russian feelings are stronger than elsewhere in the West -- this country has always been a reluctant atlantist, like France -- but the government is firmly pro-Ukraine. Within limits of course, ie Draghi is an economist and keeps an eye on the economy, so he keeps saying we need a way to make peace, because an economic crash is now looming. And he is right.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 12:52 #703405
Reply to neomac Oh thank God you actually wrote a post worth reading from beginning to end.
neomac May 31, 2022 at 13:03 #703406
Reply to Moses agreed, but they could be a minority and those who protested or could protest, especially from the city, were imprisoned or left the country. What is also remarkable is this perceived feeling of betrayed "brotherhood" between Ukrainians and Russians , and lots of Russians have relatives in Ukraine (and got their feedback too). So even hypocrisy or prudence has its toll and yet most Russians are ready to pay for it apparently.
neomac May 31, 2022 at 13:04 #703408
Reply to Streetlight trying to adapt to your mental capacity. No need to thank me.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 13:04 #703409
Anyway look at this vocal minority who don't buy into...

User image


Oh no my mistake, that is the literally the majority of the entire planet, although presumably they are 'minorities' because they are not quite white enough to count as actual people or something.

All those billions of Putinistas if only they were more enlightened by the grace of Western Reason.
neomac May 31, 2022 at 13:31 #703412
Reply to Olivier5 yet I don't know how long it will hold up for the US, Italy (how stable are Italian governments?!) or the rest of the EU (Eastern and Western European countries have a different perception of the Russian threat, Turkey and Hungary are capable of backstabbing). Even for Biden&co it's already hard to tell if they are moving just with great prudence or lack of resolve. And if Russia will manage to get away with their territorial plunder (BTW considering the late Russian military success against the Ukrainian resistance, can we really exclude the risk of a Ukrainian resistance's collapse?), Russian may still claim a victory that could erode Western confidence or resolve.
Manuel May 31, 2022 at 14:44 #703433
Reply to SophistiCat

I haven't said nor insinuated that one cannot speak about Russia's actions, of course one speaks about Russia's actions, that's part of the thread.

Ukraine would literally not be a topic of discussion here if NATO weren't a massive factor, as I posted in the OP.

People should talk about whatever they think is interesting and important.

That's a different issue from saying that by condemning Russia, we are being morally correct or righteous. That Russia is engaging in war crimes is a truism.

That I think my governments (US and Spain) are doing much to improve the situation, I don't think is the case.

Quoting Olivier5
you are not allowed to do so


You can do it and you get arrested. Those protesting in Russia are very brave and deserve moral praise.

Quoting Olivier5
when it's legal, then it's immoral.


I am impressed by your reading comprehension skills, given how creative you can be extrapolating words I never said.

I enjoy speaking to someone like @SophistiCat, even if we may disagree. You simply distort meanings to a remarkable degree.

ssu May 31, 2022 at 15:40 #703442
Quoting Manuel
Yes, it has a very long, ugly history, curiously supporting the more radical elements of Islam, which often coincide (not always) with Western economic and military interests.

Nevertheless, that's a topic deserving of its own thread.

Indeed.

I think it's obvious that either the Saudi's are either supporting the Sunni extremists (Al Qaeda) or at least not opposing them. In the Middle East you have strange bedfellows.
Apollodorus May 31, 2022 at 16:03 #703449
Quoting creativesoul
'Empire', 'domination'... Rhetorical drivel.


Yep. Empire and domination is "rhetorical drivel" when talking about America but "gospel truth" when talking about Russia. Well done, you can congratulate yourself on your impeccable objectivity! :lol:

Meantime, the facts on the ground show that it's NATO that is constantly expanding (from 12 countries in 1949 to currently 30!), not Russia ....

Enlargement of NATO - Wikipedia

Quoting Manuel
I don't think it's even possible to have a modern day war, without committing war crimes. It comes with the territory.


Above all, war comes with dead civilians, flattened cities and villages, and destroyed infrastructure. America showed how it's done in Japan, Germany, and Iraq, especially Fallujah.

I agree that ideology can't always be kept out of discussions, but when it is deliberately used as a substitute for fact-based objective analysis, then it tends to suppress rather than encourage fruitful discussion.

From what I see, people like @ssu are trying to take advantage of the fact that most people, especially Americans, have no knowledge of European geography, history, or politics, in order to peddle their NATO Nazi propaganda and disinformation.

The fact is that even before the Russian Empire, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine were simply different regions within the Land of the Russians, (Rusiskae Zemle) or short, Rus. In other words, Russia and Ukraine entered history as one people and one country.

The idea of Ukraine as a separate country was introduced by foreign powers – the Mongol Horde, Lithuania, Poland, Austria, Turkey - that occupied parts of Ukraine and encouraged separatism.

After the 1917 revolution, Ukraine came under German control, while England and France had their own plans to divide Russia into zones of influence:

As admitted by Churchill, the Franco-British Agreement stated:

The zones of influence assigned to each government shall be as follows: The English zone: The Cossack territories, the territory of the Caucasus, Armenia, Georgia, Kurdistan. The French zone: Bessarabia, the Ukraine, the Crimea …


W. Churchill, The World Crisis: The Aftermath, p. 166

This divide-and-rule policy was resumed by America in the 90’s, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The 1994 "Budapest Memorandum" mentioned by @ssu as part of his straw man argument is a prime example of this policy that was obviously intended to disarm Ukraine and incorporate it into America's expanding NATO Empire.

While it may be argued that Ukraine decided to join America's NATO Empire of its own accord, we still need to take into consideration (1) financial and economic incentives that may have acted as motivating factors, (2) Ukraine's domination by an oligarchic (i.e., criminal and hence illegitimate) class, and (3) America's own intention and motives that may have conflicted with Ukraine's best interests.

We mustn't forget that Zelensky came to power only because he promised to get rid of the oligarchs. Ukraine prior to 2019 and even prior to 2022 was as much dominated by oligarchs and kleptocrats as Russia.

So, it is incorrect to say that Ukraine's increasing closeness to the West has amounted to unmitigated "progress". In fact, it was the West that facilitated the rise of the oligarchs and kleptocrats in Russia and Ukraine in the first place, by providing financial aid and by facilitating the transfer and investment of the stolen money in Western banks, businesses, and assets.

Reply to Streetlight

I think the inclusion of places like Australia and Canada in that map is misleading as they are very large territories with very small populations. They make the Natoist camp look much bigger than it actually is.

Essentially, it's just America and its European (EU-NATO) client-states .... :grin:

Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 16:34 #703462
Quoting Manuel
You simply distort meanings to a remarkable degree.


Own what you say. Don't run away like this.
ssu May 31, 2022 at 16:52 #703469
Quoting Streetlight
In lieu of that, here is one single discussion among millions of others:

https://mate.substack.com/p/by-using-ukraine-to-fight-russia?s=r

Worth noting, that, contrary to the story-tale that Ukraine 'chose' to deal with the West, the West couped Ukraine exactly at the time at which it choose to stop dealing with the West, as outlined in the article.

From this article (given above), just to make a comment for others.

Aaron Mate goes through what is usually now known about the Maidan revolution and what role the US did without much if anything new to give. He does acknowledge Putin is at fault, but this isn't what the article is about. Somehow he quotes some analysts (Darden and Way) who say that Yanukovich was still the most popular political figure in the country. This is highly dubious claim, because why then wouldn't the Donetsk and Luhansk republics taken their guy (Yanukovich's political base had been in the Donbas) as their leader? A democratically elected President surely would have given them credibility. Or then the reason is that you couldn't call any Ukrainian politician being popular. But that's a small issue. The real bias is in the following.

Aaron Mate sums up in this article the events in this way:

Putin has carried out a major escalation of a conflict that has raged for eight years, at the cost of more than 14,000 lives. It began with a US-backed, far-right-led 2014 coup that ousted Ukraine’s democratically elected government in Kiev. In its place came a regime chosen not by the Ukrainian people, but by Washington.

End of story.

What Aaron Mate fails to mention, even if he does mention that Yanukovich was democratically elected, are both the October 2014 parliamentary elections, where the far right that had such a major role in the rioting during the revolution lost it's seats in the administration, and also the presidential elections that were held in May that year too. Indeed without these elections I would talk about a coup too and Ukraine would be obviously quite undemocratic, as portrayed in the article. To leave the elections following the revolution totally out of the article shows the bias of this piece, which is telling, even if otherwise it tells the story how we know it today. And how we know it today is the focus on the US actions, not on what Russia did. That Ukrainians have shown their anger also in the election booth and demanded change in elections should be noted, but isn't. And of course there have been many administrations and elections since then and that now there is in charge in Ukraine a totally new political party that wasn't even around in 2014 doesn't matter at all. Nope, once you get the nazi card, you have the nazi card and people will use it at anything how ever long they want.

But of course, the reason why these articles that have the anti-US bias don't give any credit to Ukrainians themselves or have nothing to do with Ukraine or the Ukrainians is obvious. Ukrainians are not what they are interested in. It's all just about how bad the US is and nothing else. US is bad and everything evolves around the US and hence the US is at fault in everything. The blatant self-centeredness is quite numbing.

And how could this be put more clearly than here with one of our active members:
Quoting Streetlight
Literally every US decision or policy has a hidden agenda and dishonest means.

That's all we need to know, I guess.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 17:02 #703471
Quoting ssu
It's all just about how bad the US is and nothing else. US is bad and everything evolves around the US and hence the US is at fault in everything.


Literally no one is saying this, and the only people keen to force a choice between waving one flag or the other - as if this were a soccer match - are people who cannot stand to see their "team" being spoken badly of.

You know you can make your personality more than just about coming to the defense of your favorite genocidal state. It's OK to do that.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 17:16 #703475
It should be added explicitly that it's true that the US was not entirely responsible for demanding a Ukrainian blood sacrifice for its own purposes. There really were forces internal to Ukraine that also helped precipitate war and the masses of Ukrainian dead - the famous Ukrainian 'agency' that liberals like to harp on about. Those internal forces were fucking Nazis.
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 17:43 #703496
Quoting ssu
That Ukrainians have shown their anger also in the election booth and demanded change in elections should be noted, but isn't. And of course there have been many administrations and elections since then and that now there is in charge in Ukraine a totally new political party that wasn't even around in 2014 doesn't matter at all. Nope, once you get the nazi card, you have the nazi card and people will use it at anything how ever long they want.


Ah, yes. That'll be why Amnesty International wrote in 2017

Amnesty:Ukraine is sinking into a chaos of uncontrolled violence posed by radical groups and their total impunity. Practically no one in the country can feel safe under these conditions


...and why Human Rights Watch warned about...

a veneer of patriotism and traditional values were allowed to operate under an atmosphere of near total impunity that cannot but embolden these groups to commit more attacks.


...and the Atlantic Council warned in 2018...

Far-right impunity...represents a dangerous threat to Ukraine’s statehood.


...all because there's absolutely no far-right problem in Ukraine, it all just went away and Ukrainians voted and campaigned with free abandon.

I'm sure the "uncontrolled violence" by the anti-Russian far right groups had absolutely no influence at all. Maybe they all just stayed home.
Mikie May 31, 2022 at 17:53 #703510
This thread is eclectic. 30% information, 70% sarcasm and insults.

Kudos for those continuing to try after 265 pages.
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 17:56 #703515
Quoting ssu
Indeed without these elections I would talk about a coup too and Ukraine would be obviously quite undemocratic, as portrayed in the article.


This is a return of a well-worn classic, the old "It's just a coincidence that everything is going exactly as America wants it to"

"America did interfere with the democratic parliament of a foreign country, but it's OK, everything was going to go that way anyway! What luck!"

Same pattern as...

"The exact same arms dealers who both control the media narrative and government policy are making a fortune from the continued war they're promoting, but that's OK, it just happens to be the best policy anyway! What luck!"

"America wants nothing more than to drive Russia into the ground, remove Chinese alliances and regain control of Eastern oil supplies, but it didn't provoke the one situation which would bring this about, it all just happened anyway. What luck!"

America really should put it's next spending round on the roulette wheels, with the luck it's having lately it's bound to win a fortune.
ssu May 31, 2022 at 17:57 #703516
Quoting Streetlight
Literally no one is saying this, and the only people keen to force a choice between waving one flag or the other - as if this were a soccer match - are people who cannot stand to see their "team" being spoken badly of.


Quoting Streetlight
Literally every US decision or policy has a hidden agenda and dishonest means.


It's you who are waving the "US is bad" flag. You simply don't perhaps notice it.

And for you it's enough that someone says that Russia's actions are deplorable. What your response is "but US does deplorable things too". And nobody has denied that.

Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 17:59 #703518
Reply to ssu

Quoting Streetlight
Literally every US decision or policy has a hidden agenda and dishonest means.


This was literally a response to someone saying that "not every US decision or policy has a hidden agenda and dishonest means".

But your kindergarten reading ability has been remarked upon before, and it would be unnecessary to bring it up again.
Mikie May 31, 2022 at 18:11 #703528
Quoting ssu
waving the "US is bad" flag.


The US government has a terrible history. Terrible. You acknowledge this.

You also acknowledge that the US, just by being the worlds largest economy (and most powerful militarily), has real influence over nearly all major events around the globe.

It’s also true that Putin’s invasion was and is immoral and stupid, and that the deaths of civilians is beyond words.

So why the characterization as “US bad”? The US isn’t bad— the choices powerful people have made (and continue to make) within the government of the United States is “bad.”

I’m still not seeing where the major disagreement lies. A matter of emphasis?

Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 18:18 #703530
It's so wild to me that Americans always like to half-heartedly acknowledge "the US has a bad history...". No, it does not have a bad history. It sucks in the present tense.

No one says "China has a bad history" or "Russia has a bad history". They simply say - correctly - "China fucking sucks" and "Russia fucking sucks". Guess what? America, currently, presently fucking sucks.

It's happened twice now in the space of the last two pages. "History" is not a storage space for America's bad shit, to be sequestered and lopped off as an academic's concern.
Manuel May 31, 2022 at 18:24 #703532
Reply to Olivier5

I own things I say and have retracted if relevant information arises, as I did at the start of this invasion.

But I will not retract things I did not say.

And yes, I think one has to asses who merits continued engagement, and who does not. My reading of your comments suggest that you extrapolate what you want to hear, so you attack something somebody did not say.

I think it doesn't make sense to discuss imaginary statements.

If you call that running away or cowardly, fine. I don't care.
ssu May 31, 2022 at 18:24 #703533
Quoting Xtrix
The US government has a terrible history. Terrible. You acknowledge this.

Yes.

Quoting Xtrix
I’m still not seeing where the major disagreement lies.


Ask yourself. How much in the thread are following issues being debated:

- According to (UNHCR) over 6 million Ukrainians have fled Ukraine, 90% of them women and children.

- Over 200 000 Russians have fled Russia after the war started with the largest group to Georgia.

- Over 3 500 civilians have been killed.

- Ukrainian authorities are already investigating more than 11,000 potential Russian war crimes since the invasion began.

And how much is it about:

- Ukraine's Nazis.

- The US made Putin to invade Ukraine because NATO enlargement.

- The war is the fault of the US is because it's actions.

- If the actions of Russia in a thread about the Ukraine war are mentioned, it means that those who write such things somehow are in favour of the actions of the US... and they should write about the bad things the US is doing. So let's talk here about something else.

Of course the latter topics should be discussed. But that they would be everything that we discuss on a thread about the Ukrainian war is ummm...


ssu May 31, 2022 at 18:30 #703539
Quoting Streetlight
No one says "China has a bad history" or "Russia has a bad history". They simply say "China fucking sucks" and "Russia fucking sucks".

Compared to the Maoist China of the Great Leap / Culture Revolution or the Russia of Stalin's Soviet Union, both countries have improved a lot! Even in the current configuration.

Killing less of your own people is an improvement.
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 18:31 #703540
Quoting ssu
Ask yourself. How much in the thread is following issues being debated:


This is a discussion forum, not a newspaper. Unless there's some interesting issue or disagreement about any of that list, I can't for the life of me think why they'd make an appearance.

But for your benefit...

According to (UNHCR) over 6 million Ukrainians have fled Ukraine, 90% of them women and children.

Now what? We all congratulate ourselves for correctly identifying that this is a 'bad' thing?

Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 18:32 #703541
Reply to ssu Well you apologize for Nazis so I suppose I can trust you to apologize for tyrannical regimes.

Have you considered just like, not apologizing for bad things? Or do you just have like some kind of externally-directed Catholic guilt about the world?
ssu May 31, 2022 at 18:34 #703543
Reply to Streetlight When do I apologize for Nazis?

Or is saying that the far right lost in the 2014 elections in Ukraine "an apology"? It isn't.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 18:37 #703547
Reply to ssu I'm not wading though these pages of muck to repost all the times you have played Nazi PR specialist, but you are welcome to search my posts for when I have called you out on it. Although probably don't bother as you wouldn't be able to read them correctly anyway.
ssu May 31, 2022 at 18:43 #703551
Quoting Isaac
Now what? We all congratulate ourselves for correctly identifying that this is a 'bad' thing?

Well,

How long are those millions of people be away from Ukraine? What will be the effect of millions of Ukrainian children now growing up in a different country? How much will it change Eastern Europe? What are the effects for Ukraine as such a huge percentage is now refugees?

Or more to your liking: is it racism that East Europeans have taken up with open arms the refugees coming from Ukraine, but the migration several years before (and still taking place now in the Mediterranean) wasn't.

That could be a discussion.

Reply to Streetlight So just your typical ad hominem bullshit.

Of course.
Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 18:47 #703554
Quoting ssu
So just your typical ad hominem bullshit


Yeah like all the ad homs where you literally could not read and then ran away with your tail behind your legs when it's been pointed out to you. You are worth exactly the minimum effort and not a finger more.
Isaac May 31, 2022 at 18:54 #703555
Quoting ssu
How long are those millions of people be away from Ukraine? What will be the effect of millions of Ukrainian children now growing up in a different country? How much will it change Eastern Europe? What are the effects for Ukraine as such a huge percentage is now refugees?


How the hell should I know? I'm sure there are people out there with far more expertise on the progress and impacts of mass migration than any of us here have. What's the point in us just guessing? Have you come across The Internet? It's got loads of stuff on it.

Quoting ssu
is it racism that East Europeans have taken up with open arms the refugees coming from Ukraine, but the migration several years before (and still taking place now in the Mediterranean) wasn't.


That could be a discussion.


Ah, you mean like here

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/667030

And here

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/673863

And here

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/670630

And here

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/663647

And here

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/696548

And here

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/670619


ssu May 31, 2022 at 18:55 #703556
So well put on page 3 of this thread.

Quoting frank
StreetlightX is deranged as usual.


ssu May 31, 2022 at 18:58 #703559
Quoting Isaac
Ah, you mean like here


As I said, more to your liking. And the topic isn't how bad the US is, so at least it's something different.
unenlightened May 31, 2022 at 19:00 #703560
Quoting Moses
Institutions mold people.


Quoting neomac
The real problem isn't with the Russian people, but with Russian institutions, namely the military culture.
— Moses

We can't say that the Russian people aren't the problem either.


______________________________________________________

Quoting Olivier5
The common good is more like it. One must tolerate a lot of unpleasantness to live in society, but if we spread this unpleasantness around equitably, then it becomes a fair, and hence tolerable, social contract.


You will hear no argument from me to contradict that an equitable society that promotes the common good is both a pleasant place to live and at least in these respects a moral society, though that is sounding a bit socialist. Do you broadly agree with the observations of others quoted above, that there is an intimate entanglement of people and institutions such that they mould the people that create them and are remoulded by the people they create?

Yet in the end, the principle upheld at the Nuremberg trials was that moral responsibility is always on individuals, those who made immoral laws, gave immoral orders, and each of those who obeyed them. there is no collective responsibility, no institutional responsibility, no national responsibility, and thus no morality of nation or government other than the morality of those individuals.
Mikie May 31, 2022 at 19:16 #703567
Quoting ssu
The US government has a terrible history. Terrible. You acknowledge this.
— Xtrix
Yes.


Okay. And you acknowledge its current influence on world affairs.

Putting these things together, there’s every reason to assume the US has a hand in this conflict — even if we know next to nothing about the particular event. So we’re in agreement.

You go on to ask why this is discussed over other issues — which is what I meant by “matter of emphasis.” I think it gets discussed at length because when it’s pointed out it gets misrepresented as a defense of Putin— or simply denied, when it should be taken for granted. (Just as condemning this invasion should be taken for granted — I see no one excusing Putin’s crimes either.)

Personally, as a US citizen I often bring matters back to my government’s involvement for the simple reason that I feel I can do the most to change it (and admittedly little at that). They supposedly represent me, after all. But that doesn’t mean I’m ignoring Russian responsibility.

We all agree we want this to end, yes? So discussing every part of the issue is important. One part is the United States. Happens to be a major part. Still missing where the gulf lies.





Streetlight May 31, 2022 at 19:29 #703573
Lol:

"Russia has exported MORE oil since the war began (of course for much more money) than in the year before it. And case study in hypocrisy, the United States, while pressing the world to put sanctions on Russian oil, in March 2022, almost doubled how much it imported from Russia to 4.2 million barrels a month. Note the explosion of Asian export vectors. So much for sanctions. As for the EU’s comic announcement today that they will embargo Russian oil, except not for 8 months, and excluding oil delivered by pipeline (lucky old Hungarians and Germans). And of course any seaborne cargo with only 49% Russian oil is permitted, the other 51% may be itself 49% Russian molecules, shake and repeat until you have a seaborne cargo supplied by a cunning Greek shipping magnate and a sly Zurich commodities broker, which is deemed non-Russian but in fact has possibly 99% Russian molecules." -via a comrade.

User image

Not even the West believes in the bullshit the West is peddling. Which leaves only forum flag-wavers to actually buy into it, who in turn get mad when critics of the West simply agree with the West that it is up to it's neck in bullshit and blood. What even is the level of patheticness it takes to run interference for people who don't believe in the very things they get the people to run interference for them over?
Apollodorus May 31, 2022 at 19:44 #703579
Quoting ssu
the topic isn't how bad the US is


More distraction and diversion from the NATO Troll in chief. :grin:

IMO "how bad the US is" is very much the topic, given that according to Russia it invaded Ukraine to keep NATO out which, as everyone knows, is an instrument of US imperialism.

American imperialism - Wikipedia

Plus, it is America that is bankrolling and driving the West's jihad on Russia.

Not only are you a self-identified defender of American imperialism and Natoism, but you've failed to explain why you're trying to hijack the thread if you're not a pro-NATO propagandist and activist.

And what exactly makes you think that the world must see this conflict through the eyes of Finland???
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 21:43 #703594
Quoting neomac
Even for Biden&co it's already hard to tell if they are moving just with great prudence or lack of resolve.


I think Biden is doing what he can. He needs to avoid escalation.

And if Russia will manage to get away with their territorial plunder (BTW considering the late Russian military success against the Ukrainian resistance, can we really exclude the risk of a Ukrainian resistance's collapse?), Russian may still claim a victory that could erode Western confidence or resolve.


Dombass is collapsing as we speak, and retaking it will be very difficult according to military analists. I don't think it will affect the 'west' as much as it might affect the Ukrainian forces' resolve. We shall see.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 21:51 #703598
Quoting unenlightened
there is no collective responsibility, no institutional responsibility, no national responsibility, and thus no morality of nation or government other than the morality of those individuals.


I believe so, yes. So I agree with you: we are all responsible for what we do, including the Russians.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 21:59 #703602
Reply to Isaac You stated:

Quoting Isaac
Who's 'right' and who's 'wrong' is for the puerile moralisers here to agonise over which flag to waive. Anyone with a post-adolescent grasp of politics is discussing the actual outcomes and their impact on Ukraine (and the wider world).


And yet, when offered by @ssu an opportunity to discuss just that, you were not interested:

Quoting Isaac
What will be the effect of millions of Ukrainian children now growing up in a different country? How much will it change Eastern Europe? What are the effects for Ukraine as such a huge percentage is now refugees?
— ssu

How the hell should I know? I'm sure there are people out there with far more expertise on the progress and impacts of mass migration than any of us here have. What's the point in us just guessing? Have you come across The Internet? It's got loads of stuff on it.


Your pants are on fire.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 22:07 #703603
Quoting Manuel
There's been much discussion here, and I've only skimmed a good portion of it, but my feeling is that Isaac is correct in the following: that we are responsible for what our governments do and can act on that to some extent.

Unless we are Russian (and even then it's hard, given the current regime in Russia) we can't do much about it. And merely saying how horrible Russia is, over and over, is convenient moralizing.

I draw exceptions with people living next to Russia, but besides that, its just much easier to condemn Russia, than what's happening in say, Yemen,


This is the passage I summarized by stating that: to criticize the Russian government is either illegal (if you live in Russia) or immoral (if you live outside of Russia).

To what extent have I distorted your position? By replacing "convenient moralizing" by "immoral". Okay so allow me to rephrase:

According to you, to criticize the Russian government is either illegal (if one lives in Russia) or convenient moralizing (if one lives outside Russia).
ssu May 31, 2022 at 22:09 #703605
Quoting Olivier5
I think Biden is doing what he can. He needs to avoid escalation.


His wavering on the MLRS rocket launchers is telling. The weapon system is very effective, especially the M30/31 projectile with 70km range can avoid counter battery fire. No need to give then the ATACMS version with 300 km range, but to tell that you don't give weapon systems that can reach Russia when the Ukrainian forces are still in many places on the border with Russia is a bit strange. And Ukraine can reach (and has fired on) targets deep in Russia as it has tactical artillery missiles like the Tochka with 120 kilometer range and perhaps the HRIM missile with 350 kilometer range. Already the Ukrainian anti-ship missile has been used quite successfully.

Still the mainstay in the artillery duels is the old venerable BM-21 Grad with 45 km range, even if Ukraine has Smerch and Uragan systems from the Soviet era. But that now it's the M270 MLRS system that is debated does show how attitudes have changed as Ukraine has been able to fight Russia for so much time.

Manuel May 31, 2022 at 22:39 #703614
Reply to Olivier5

It is illegal, as a matter of fact, in Russia. It's an empirical affair. Not morally wrong in the least, actually the opposite.

Quoting Olivier5
According to you, to criticize the Russian government is either illegal (if one lives in Russia) or convenient moralizing (if one lives outside Russia).


Correct.

Where you live affects this, in my opinion. If you live in Poland or Finland, I think it's different. If you live in say, France, the US or Australia, then yes, most of what I hear (not all) is convenient moralizing.
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 23:01 #703623
Quoting ssu
to tell that you don't give weapon systems that can reach Russia when the Ukrainian forces are still in many places on the border with Russia is a bit strange.


I am beyond my expertise level, but let me try an experiment here. Considering the lack of credible arguments proposed lately by our dear friends the "peace lovers", the lack of a "loyal opposition" if you wish, which results in a toxic debate with endless ad hominem, let me argue the pacifist side for a moment. I will try and put forth substantive arguments for a de-escalation. For the sake of the argument.

I might even convince myself once I get into the role. In any case, let us see if we can do a better, more productive debate, perhaps, than what we've been treated with so far.

Considering the risks involved in this situation and the 'fog of war', ie the fact that we probably can't know all the actual risks, it might be a good idea to play it a bit safe.

The risks as we can assess them include 1) escalation into a broader conflict involving, say, Belarus for a start, Finland later, maybe even NATO ultimately; 2) the risk of a future radicalisation of the Ukrainian government into some extreme nationalist regime, following the next election or the one after that; and 3) the potential capture of NATO weapons by the Russians.

Risk #1 is permanent. I wonder if in Biden's mind there is not the potential yet haunting image of a missile made in USA crashing into a Russian apartment complex. Something like that making the morning news could send us all into a spiral of death.

I trust the Ukrainians are better than that but radicalisation being a frequent effect of wars, historically, risk #2 cannot be ruled out.

Regarding risk #3, ie the potential loss of NATO weapons to the Russians, I note that the M777 given to Ukraine were sent without their computers, precisely to avoid the Russians getting acces to the code. That tells something: the trust in the strength of the Ukrainian forces is not total in the Pentagon.

Finally, any weapon system that they would decide to deliver only now will not avoid the loss of Dombas. It's too late. It will take a month before it's delivered, and two months before it becomes operational, minimum.

How did I do?
Olivier5 May 31, 2022 at 23:07 #703629
Reply to Manuel I said: either illegal (if one lives in Russia) or convenient moralizing (if one lives outside of it). In an "either / or" sentence the two things after "either" and "or" are not the same thing, but different. The phrase presents an alternative.
Manuel May 31, 2022 at 23:31 #703634
Reply to Olivier5

Yes.

The first one (it being illegal) is just a fact. But not morally wrong at all.

As to the convenient moralizing, yes, with the caveats mentioned.
creativesoul June 01, 2022 at 01:31 #703659
Quoting Streetlight
Worth noting, that, contrary to the story-tale that Ukraine 'chose' to deal with the West, the West couped Ukraine exactly at the time at which it choose to stop dealing with the West, as outlined in the article.


Indeed. If that article is true regarding the coup to overturn a free and fair election, it is well worth noting. If the free and fair election was not a free and fair election(if it was rigged), then perhaps there's more to the story. Given the known history of recent Russian elections, and given that Russia backed the ousted leader, and given that Russia is known to interfere in the elections of others...

...I remain unconvinced, although I'm currently less confident about the goodwill for goodwill's sake.

Thanks.
Tate June 01, 2022 at 01:34 #703660
Since the war started at the end of February, Ukraine has destroyed about 10 Russian tanks per day.
creativesoul June 01, 2022 at 01:52 #703664
Quoting Apollodorus
Meantime, the facts on the ground show that it's NATO that is constantly expanding (from 12 countries in 1949 to currently 30!), not Russia ....


Yes. I'm aware of the agreement Bush Sr.(???) made after the fall of the Berlin wall to not expand NATO "one inch farther" to the east. Then, during the Clinton administration(I think???) that promise/agreement was broken. I understand that Russia feels insecure and vulnerable with so many US allies and installments surrounding it. I do understand that that could feel like a threat.
creativesoul June 01, 2022 at 01:55 #703665
Quoting Apollodorus
Yep. Empire and domination is "rhetorical drivel" when talking about America but "gospel truth" when talking about Russia. Well done, you can congratulate yourself on your impeccable objectivity!


You say this as though it is either an accurate or an appropriate thing to say to me. It's neither. For whatever that's worth around here.
creativesoul June 01, 2022 at 02:05 #703668
I do not quite understand the sentiment hereabouts that seems to suggest that either one is with the US or against it. As if acknowledging the role the US has played in the escalations in Ukraine is somehow pro-Putin or Pro-Russian, and in being so is anti-American by default.

:brow:
Agent Smith June 01, 2022 at 04:02 #703685
Russia started the war, but who caused the war?
Isaac June 01, 2022 at 04:25 #703687
Quoting Olivier5
when offered by ssu an opportunity to discuss just that


Let me see if I can explain this at your level.

We are not experts in military strategy, refugees, foreign relations... Even were one of us to be, we would only be one among many.

As such, speculating via our own pet theories about these matters is pointless. If we disagree, we've absolutely no ground on which to resolve that disagreement, and if we agree we're just building castles in the air.

What we can discuss is our reasons for believing some expert or other. In other words, our political opinions, our narratives. On a thread about Ukraine, these will be (substantially) to do with the effects on Ukraine. That's not the same thing as idlely predicting what the effects will be. It's talking about why we believe someone else's predictions about what the effects will be.

The topic is still the effects on Ukraine.

The mode of discussion is not lay guesswork.

Has that got anywhere? Do I need to render it in pictures?
Olivier5 June 01, 2022 at 05:56 #703701
Reply to Isaac That's not a scoop though: we all know you are clueless already. You wouldn't even know how assess your sources.

Fact: you have not talked at all about the effects on Ukraine.

Fact: you are a serial liar.
Olivier5 June 01, 2022 at 06:10 #703703
Quoting Agent Smith
Russia started the war, but who caused the war?


God. He wants a nuclear Armageddon.
Olivier5 June 01, 2022 at 06:13 #703704
Quoting Manuel
Yes


Okay, so I did not misrepresent your position. Thank you.
Agent Smith June 01, 2022 at 06:14 #703705
[quote=Olivier5]God. He wants a nuclear Armageddon.[/quote]

:snicker: Any ideas why, of all the things possible, he'd want that?

Ares up to mischief, again?
Olivier5 June 01, 2022 at 06:20 #703707
Quoting creativesoul
As if acknowledging the role the US has played in the escalations in Ukraine is somehow pro-Putin or Pro-Russian


It's not. But when one does so in each and every post of his over 200+ pages, you start to wonder what got into them.
Olivier5 June 01, 2022 at 06:22 #703708
Reply to Agent Smith Like the first time, he got tired of us.

Don't Look Up.
Agent Smith June 01, 2022 at 06:24 #703710
[quote=Olivier5]Like the first time, he got tired of us.

Don't Look Up.[/quote]

We aren't exactly likable, are we?
Olivier5 June 01, 2022 at 06:40 #703713
Quoting Agent Smith
We aren't exactly likable, are we?


Nobody likes me, that's for sure.
neomac June 01, 2022 at 06:40 #703714
Quoting Manuel
By pressuring our governments, voting our politicians in or out, engaging in demonstrations that could push or stop legislation, sending letters to our representatives all of which are an essential part of democracy.

As we are not citizens of Russia, we do not have this option - and also they get arrested if they do protest.


The right that you want to exercise and you don't see granted in Russia is likely perceived by the ruthless Russian president and his Chinese counterpart - both leaders of authoritarian regimes and challengers of the current World Order - as a sign of Western weakness, one that could bolster their economic and military aggressiveness by exploiting the Western internal divisions and lack of resolve. Therefore, wanting to exercise this right to promote appeasement and concessions to them even when they are violating international rules to oppress, murder and destroy an independent state striving to be part of the West, will likely prove to them and the rest of the world they were on the right track.
Agent Smith June 01, 2022 at 06:42 #703715
[quote=Olivier5]Nobody likes me, that's for sure.[/quote]

:snicker: Same here! Join the club.

neomac June 01, 2022 at 06:48 #703716
Quoting Isaac
If we disagree, we've absolutely no ground on which to resolve that disagreement, and if we agree we're just building castles in the air.

What we can discuss is our reasons for believing some expert or other. In other words, our political opinions, our narratives.


And what ground do we absolutely have to resolve narrative or political opinion disagreements?


Isaac June 01, 2022 at 06:51 #703717
Reply to neomac

So?

You don't seem to have finished your argument. Does it matter that they think us weak for using appeasement? If so, what ought we do about that? Make war just so we don't seem weak?

Quoting neomac
what ground do we absolutely have to resolve narrative or political opinion disagreements?


None. We persuade.
Streetlight June 01, 2022 at 07:05 #703720
If we don't encourage the wonton murder of Ukranians, the West will be seen as weak :(

Never mind that the places like the US routinely shoot their own children in schools, which is no doubt a sign of immense strength.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/biden-closing-new-weapons-package-ukraine-2022-05-31/

Anyway, another $700 million dollars of death dealing because fuck it, may as well cycle the money to arms dealers while the going is good and the grift can be maintained.
neomac June 01, 2022 at 07:06 #703721
Quoting Isaac
You don't seem to have finished your argument.


I did it on purpose, to have Manuel's feedback on this.

Quoting Isaac
We persuade.


And on what grounds do we persuade?


neomac June 01, 2022 at 07:09 #703722
Quoting Streetlight
If we don't encourage the wonton murder of Ukranians, the West will be seen as weak


On the contrary, you will be seen as strong, since the wanton murder of Ukrainians is what their big Russian "brothers" are doing.
Streetlight June 01, 2022 at 07:10 #703724
Reply to neomac Yes, and? That the West feels left out in the bloodshed is not exactly an excuse to partake and heighten it.

Edit: Sorry, by "partake" I mean, not partake at all and let Ukranians do the dying on their behalf.
Olivier5 June 01, 2022 at 07:34 #703726
Quoting neomac
And on what grounds do we persuade?


The way things work here, people do not persuade each other, ever. They don't even try much, because it takes two well disposed debaters, and that is not available.

Instead, a lot of people here try to aggravate others by way of trolling. It's an attempt to destroy or debase the debate, to muddle the water and make everybody confused.

Isaac in particular can't articulate what he wants to talk about but he is absolutely certain that others are dead wrong to talk about what he doesn't want them to talk about.

And he demonstrably lies all the time. Lyin' for Putin... Figure that.
Isaac June 01, 2022 at 07:39 #703729
Quoting neomac
And on what grounds do we persuade?


Depends. The reasons we're persuaded of a theory are numerous.

Sometimes it might fit better with other beliefs so I might persuade you by pointing out those conflicts.

Sometimes they might be token beliefs of a social group to which you want to belong, so I might persuade you by raising the likelihood of ostracism if you don't adopt it.

Sometimes it's familiarity and I persuade you by simply repeating the theory often enough for it to seem like the most familiar one.

And any one of a dozen other ways. You might just prefer the name of it....

Hell, sometimes I might just keep calling you a twat until you break under the pressure of my relentless insults.
neomac June 01, 2022 at 07:40 #703730
Quoting Streetlight
?neomac
Yes, and? That the West feels left out in the bloodshed

For now (and if we exclude Westerners are participating also with volunteers fighting and dying there). The stronger Russia remains the more likely they will be able to come back after us one way or the other in the West and outside, and encouraging the anti-Western front in the rest of the World. And Europeans are exposed to these existential threats much more than the US.
ssu June 01, 2022 at 07:43 #703732
Quoting Olivier5
I wonder if in Biden's mind there is not the potential yet haunting image of a missile made in USA crashing into a Russian apartment complex. Something like that making the morning news could send us all into a spiral of death.

Biden seems to have already gotten assurances that US systems aren't going to be used to attack Russia proper from the Ukrainians.

(And seems that now the weapon system is the newer HIMARS that is going to be delivered)

Quoting Olivier5
The risks as we can assess them include 1) escalation into a broader conflict involving, say, Belarus for a start, Finland later, maybe even NATO ultimately

How actually this will happen is a real question mark. And seems that many don't even think they need to explain just how this would happen.

We've already seen that what some here argue is the main cause of war, NATO expansion, has already happened thanks my country and my neighboring country doing the most provocative thing ever. And what was the response? That it's a non-issue, both with Putin and Lavrov stating this.

Hence the escalation is partly, and I emphasize partly, something of a risk. The obvious non-starter was the demand for an no-fly-zone. That didn't happen and that surely would have been escalatory. The next escalatory issue is basically blockade running or talk of it.

In some form, perhaps under UN charter or something, this could happen, but of course then it's a negotiating tactic for the Russians. They have to get something from it. They have to agree with it, perhaps allowing some humanitarian grain shipment to countries that are in desperate need of supplies. But likely Russians would demand checking the cargo inbound to Ukraine.

Yet the fact is, which ought to be obvious, is that Ukraine's only alternative is to get a settlement, a peace deal or a cease-fire. It simply cannot win in the classic sense Russia. Russia has nuclear weapons, and it hasn't got them. And likely to have a good negotiation stance, Ukraine has to appear as bellicose and as willing to continue the fight, until it accept the peace terms.

Even for the Finnish people during the Winter War, the peace was a huge and total shock, as obviously the propaganda machine had lifted the spirits up even if the military situation was close to collapse and the end of the war. But that isn't a thing you obviously want to publicly state.
Isaac June 01, 2022 at 07:46 #703734
Quoting Olivier5
They don't even try much. That would require trying to understand what the other guy is saying. Too complicated.


Bingo! I've got "No one understands me (but I understand everyone else perfectly)!"

That's a full house.
neomac June 01, 2022 at 07:49 #703736
Reply to Isaac how about violence? Is it a way to persuade people? "Ostracism" and "insulting" seem a form of psychological violence.
Olivier5 June 01, 2022 at 07:53 #703738
Quoting ssu
How actually this will happen is a real question mark. And seems that many don't even think they need to explain just how this would happen.


Not saying it WILL happen. I was talking about the kind of risks that may be on our leaders' mind. An escalation COULD happen, which is probably why Biden is moving carefully. In any case, I'm ready to give him the benefit of doubt here.
Streetlight June 01, 2022 at 07:54 #703739
Quoting neomac
The stronger Russia remains the more likely they will be able to come back after us one way or the other in the West and outside, and encouraging the anti-Western front in the rest of the World. And Europeans are exposed to these existential threats much more than the US.


This is just neoconservative parochial trash. Your paranoia does not mean you get to excuse and encourage Western bloodshed. The one lesson to be learnt from the mass murder of Ukranians taking place right now is that efforts to 'weaken' perceived enemies are above all the prime causes of mass death on a global scale. It will of course not be learnt. Anyone with a pulse will have learnt this paying attention to even an iota of US foreign policy since the end of the second world war, but warmongering stains like you continue to champion this utter death-generating rubbish over and over again.