Michael

We have the base rate information. The probability of a coin landing heads is 0.5. The probability that I will be questioned if the coin lands heads i...

I don't think your numbers are accurate there. But in this case we're not asking about an outsider's analysis of frequencies over many experiments, bu...

How do you condition on such a thing? What values do you place into Bayes' theorem? \begin{aligned}P(Heads | Questioned) &= {{P(Questioned | Heads) * ...

I don't understand how this is different to the original. In the original she's woken up on Wednesday and told the result of the coin flip (whether he...

That's the supposed paradox. Switching doesn't increase our expected return, but the reasoning given suggests that it does. So we need to make sense o...

If economic issues were the concern then they'd be voting for Democrats. It's clearly social issues (the "culture war") that elicit support for Trump ...

Given that the coin flip just determines if a Tuesday interview will happen, Beauty is being asked for her credence that a Tuesday interview will happ...

Why does it make a difference? Why would it influence the odds? Let's say that I wanted to bet on a coin toss. I bet £100 that it will be tails. To in...

Consider a coin toss. P(Heads) = 0.5 P(Tails) = 0.5 I bet £1 on a coin toss. If I bet correctly I will win £1. What is my expected return if I bet on ...

Then you should read this, this, and this.

The issue isn't with probability. Given that there's £10 in my envelope, the probability that the other envelope contains £5 is equal to the probabili...

Here's a Venn diagram to show how the probabilities interlink (where "Monday" should be read as "she will be woken on Monday" and "Tuesday” as "she wi...

A variation of my variation. Let's say that there are two beauties; Michael and Jane. They are put to sleep and assigned a random number from {1, 2}. ...

The number assignment and the coin toss do not affect each other, and so they are independent events. But there is something different about my exampl...

Let's say that there are three beauties; Michael, Jane, and Jill. They are put to sleep and assigned a random number from {1, 2, 3}. If the coin lands...

If they don't consent then yes. Letting someone do something and consenting to them doing something are different things. The former only implies that...

Given my previous post that shows that under S5 we cannot assume that ??x?Px is true for any logically consistent Px, the third alternative is that “p...

You can call NOS4A2 a moronic rape apologist.

On this point, consider this: 1. ?xFx ? ?x?y(Fy ? (x = y)) 2. ??x?(Fx ? Ax) ? ?x?(Fx ? Ax) 3. ??x?(Fx ? ¬Ax) ? ?x?(Fx ? ¬Ax) The first premise asserts...

Gets found liable for defamation, proceeds to defame on TV the following day. He just invites his own problems. Either a second lawsuit or more eviden...

The jury disagreed.

I wasn't at the trial so I don't know. You'd have to ask the jury.

I did offer a more substantial notion of God here. The argument attempts to show that there exists something which necessarily created the world. But ...

Clearly they thought that either a) the evidence of what Trump did didn't satisfy the legal definition of rape or b) the evidence of rape wasn't a "pr...

Clearly the jury disagreed. There was more evidence that he was guilty than there was evidence that Carroll and the others were lying.

So, Trump didn't object to an anonymous jury, didn't testify, missed the deadline for providing DNA evidence, and didn't offer his own defence witness...

Incidentally, https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23721313/kaplan-ruling-in-carroll-v-trump-jury.pdf

Anonymous doesn't mean not impartial.

In a civil trial the requirement is a preponderance of evidence, not proof beyond reasonable doubt.

Yes, the jury were especially at risk because it was Donald Trump who was being tried. If he wasn't such a twat and if his supporters weren't such psy...

Because it doesn't apply to States, although most States choose to follow it to some extent. In this case the judge ruled that the danger posed to the...

Although actually, I'm not sure this response is even warranted. Even if our "ordinary" concept of God is one that isn't to be interpreted as being mo...

Because of the 7th Amendment? Edit: Although it doesn't apply to States, but many States choose to follow it anyway.

I'm not a lawyer but the 6th Amendment applies to criminal trials, not civil.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/15/trump-e-jean-carroll-defamation-lawsuit-dna

Sure, but you were implying that her not knowing the year is evidence that she made it up. I'm simply giving you an example of how that's a non sequit...

I don't remember what year I was given morphine and underwent surgery. Doesn't mean it didn't happen, because it did. I remember it vividly. I have th...

It does seem to trade on an ambiguous interpretation of the phrase "necessary". Modality is tricky. When I say that it is possible that it will rain t...

That makes sense. The use of certain words such as "he", "she", "man", and "woman", as well as the types of clothes that people wear, have nothing to ...

There is some evidence of this. See Brain Sex Differences Related to Gender Identity Development: Genes or Hormones? Although as the study says, this ...

Jury finds that Trump sexually abused E. Jean Carroll, awards $5 million in damages

Or 3) let people use the toilets they're most comfortable using.

Why are chromosomes relevant? How would we even know what someone's chromosomes are? We don't DNA test people before letting them use the toilet. And ...

He has XX chromosomes. He's a trans man, i.e. born with female genitalia and transitioned to a man by taking testosterone and surgery (at least top, I...

It's a question, not a point.

So if it's just a matter of born biology, does this trans man have to use women's toilets? https://i-6uf0utvje8gy-cdn.plushcontent.com/uploads/files/o...

What does this have to do with trans people using their preferred bathrooms? Trans men want to use men's toilets, trans women want to use women's toil...

What about maths? We might define the symbols and axioms but the results take time to discover and have practical import.

Is there a difference between saying that "bachelor" means "unmarried man" and saying that a bachelor is an unmarried man?

It's a newish area of study, but it isn't new. See transgender history.