Yes, I said as much with my extreme example. Given that 2\over3 of sitters will sit in on a 100 Heads interview it is rational for each sitter to reas...
Jane should reason as if she is randomly selected from the set of all participants, because she is. Sue should reason as if she is randomly selected f...
Was my rephrasing of it wrong? I'm treating DZ#1 as Monday and DZ#2 as Tuesday. If twice at DZ#1 then twice on Monday, if once at DZ#2 then once on Tu...
No, I was just trying to rephrase your secret mission example into a way that I could understand better. Did I misinterpret it? If not then it appears...
So if heads then woken once on Monday and twice on Tuesday, otherwise woken twice on Monday and once on Tuesday. Sue tells Jane that it's Monday. What...
Sue's reasoning is right for Sue but wrong for Jane (and vice versa) given that 2\over3 of sitters will sit in on a 100 Heads interview but 1\over2^{1...
I've already stated why I disagree with this. The manner in which the sitter is assigned a room isn't the manner in which Sleeping Beauty is assigned ...
I've just taken what Elga said. He says: If P(H1), P(T1), and P(T2) sum to 1 then P(H1 or T1 or T2) = 1. Where P(H1) means "the coin landed heads and ...
Going back to this for a moment, I think a better way to write this would be: P(Heads|H1 or T1 or T2) = P(H1 or T1 or T2|Heads) * P(Heads) / P(H1 or T...
It's not intended to. It's intended to show that this inference is not valid a priori: P(A|A or B) = P(B|A or B) ? P(A) = P(B) Elga's argument depends...
Certainly not necessarily so, but unless we're something special it stands to reason that at least one would. Of course it's possible, and one explana...
This is an ambiguous claim. It is true that if you randomly select a seeing from the set of all possible seeings then it is twice as likely to be a ta...
Only when it's appropriate to do so. It is in the case of rolling a dice, it isn't in the case of counting the number of awakenings. Again, it doesn't...
@"Pierre-Normand" Thought you might be interested in my short exchange with Elga: Unfortunately I don't quite see how it addresses my counterexample, ...
I don’t think it’s specifically about coming here. One of the arguments is just that a sufficiently advanced civilisation would colonise their entire ...
I disagree with the step from "the majority of winning bets are tails bets" to "tails is more probable". It's either a non sequitur or affirming the c...
More frequent but not more probable. If the game is played once I wouldn't argue that the coin most likely landed heads 100 times in a row and that my...
It can be rational in the sense that it can be profitable to bet when the expected value is greater than the cost, much like a lottery that costs £1 w...
Then apply this to my case of tossing the coin one hundred times, and where the experiment is only run once. Will you bet that the coin landed heads 1...
That I believe is a bad interpretation of probability. The probability of the coin landing heads is 1/2, leading to one interview. The probability of ...
Take away the amnesia. Does it follow that because there are two interviews after every tails that a tails interview is twice as probable? Throwing in...
I don't see the connection between credence in an outcome and practical implications. Proving that the optimum betting strategy over multiple games is...
I think that part in bold is key. There are two Sleeping Beauties, A and B. If the coin lands heads then A will be woken once and B twice, otherwise B...
I think a distinction needs to be made between the probability of making a correct prediction and the frequency of making a correct prediction. That a...
What's interesting about this case (at least according to this), is that he "has given Congress and the Intelligence Community Inspector General exten...
Alternatively, she loses $1 each time she wakes. What is her credence that she will lose $2? It’s not the case that she loses $2 2/3 of the time, alth...
I wonder if the variation I considered here highlights the difference in perspective, with the question forcing you to consider it from the halfer per...
I've just read it. Seems to be saying what I said here: I don't think this is right. The experiment is only being conducted once and Sleeping Beauty i...
5 out of every 6 victims escape. I count by participants, not by escape attempts. I think it's more reasonable. And that first question is the premise...
She can and should use known priors to condition her credence, and one such prior is that she is more likely to win a prize/have the opportunity to es...
Then forget the nature of the prize. If I know that I’ve won a prize my credence favours the first coin toss having landed tails, otherwise it favours...
That's only because I walk into one film. If I'm given amnesia and walk into the second film (if there is a second film) then it affects my credence. ...
Sorry, misunderstand the movie example. It’s a different answer if I only get to walk into one film, which would be comparable to Sleeping Beauty only...
No, but if I walk in not knowing if it’s the first or second film then my credence favours it being part of a double feature. I agree, which is why I ...
Yes. The probability of it being red on a waking day if heads is 1%. The probability of it being red on a waking day if tails is 1 - 0.99^2 = 1.99%. T...
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