Michael

I haven't said anything of the sort. What I've said is that observing a green apple increases the probability that "if something isn't black then it i...

You're talking nonsense.

No it isn't. A green apple is a non-black thing that is not a raven. So the probability isn't 0.

So, probabilities in this case must be either 1 or 0? Well, given the existence of a green apple we know that the probability of a non-black thing not...

Where is this x = 0 coming from? x can never equal 0. So, no, in the instance of a non-black raven, x doesn't equal 0.

No, if there are non-black ravens then x wouldn't be 1. And given that there's a non-black non-raven we know that the probability isn't 0. So, again, ...

The claim we're considering is "if something isn't black then it isn't a raven". Where n is the number of things that aren't black and 1/x is the prob...

We know that n isn't 0 given that we have an example of something that isn't black. So n is at least 1.

I don't need to know the actual probability. It could be 1 in 10 or it could be 1 in a trillion. Whatever the probability is, (1/x)n is less than (1/x...

This doesn't address the point.

Yes you can. Observing a green apple increases the probability that "if something isn't black then it isn't a raven" is true from (1/x)n to (1/x)n - 1...

Yes, and I've repeatedly explained that you have a strange understanding of probability. It is perfectly correct to say that the probability of the to...

You've missed the part about contraposition. Given that green apples are evidence of the claim "if something isn't black then it isn't a raven", and g...

Before you start flipping, the probability of the first two flips landing heads is 0.25. After the first flip, the probability of the first two flips ...

Bite what bullet? I have shown you with maths that the probability of the statement being true increases after each successful observation. At no poin...

Pooh-pooh? Suit yourself.

But there is evidence, as I've shown. After each successful observation the probability that the claim is true increases.

Ha!

And again you're back to this bizarre understanding of probability.

And yet it is perfectly ordinary to talk about the probability of the first card we turn over being the Ace of Spades being 1/52. So I dispute your cl...

Then where does my math fail? Prior to any observation the probability of the claim being true is (1/x)n. After a successful observation the probabili...

The whole thing is about epistemology, so I don't understand your objection. The paradox is that if we observe a green apple then we can be more confi...

I'm not missing any fact. I provided a valid argument with true premises. Contrapositive claims are logically equivalent and evidence of white eggs in...

You seem to be missing the fact that we're talking about evidence for a contrapositive claim, not a different claim, so your analogies are false ones....

What argument? You simply said: Where's the argument to support your claim " not confirmed or made more likely by anything appearing anywhere else"? I...

And to continue with my example of the pack of cards, imagine that we tear one of the cards. What's the probability that none of the intact cards is t...

I'm not talking about confirmation, i.e. proof. I'm talking about evidence. Evidence is just whatever increases the probability that the statement is ...

Again, I don't know what you mean by probability. Probability isn't simply limited to either there being a probability of 1 or a probability of 0. We ...

As explained here, the actual numbers don't matter. You can increase the number of eggs to any arbitrarily high number and decrease the probability to...

As I said here, we don't even need to think about it in terms of evidence. The paradox arises even if we just think about it in terms of the probabili...

Then where does my math fail here? Each successful observation does increase the probability that the statement is true.

I would count as evidence anything that increases the probability that the statement is true. As shown here, each successful observation increases the...

No it doesn't. How have you derived that? Certainly not with the law of contraposition. Yes they are. It's guaranteed by contraposition.

Given a shuffled deck of cards, what's the probability that the first card we turn over is the Ace of Spades? 1 in 52. Even though either it's the Ace...

I know I certainly can't. Maybe I'm lacking something.

I still don't understand this. So perhaps to keep it simple you could clarify which of these you disagree with: 1. The proposition that if something i...

What do you mean by saying that one claim isn't logically equivalent to another in terms of evidence? You just clearly don't understand what logical e...

The existence of green apples is relevant to the proposition that if something is not black then it is not a raven. The proposition that if something ...

Terrapin, address the entirety of my comment. Your response doesn't make sense in context. See, this shows that you're not reading what I'm writing. T...

Again, we're considering the claim "if something is a raven then it is black". You admitted that your existence as a Welsh man is evidence against the...

Why must it have something to do with ravens? The claim is "if something is not black then it is not a raven". Therefore, to be relevant, surely it mu...

No, that would be material equivalence. We're discussing logical equivalence.

Are you just not reading what I'm writing?

Yes, and the existence of green apples does have something to do with the claim "if something is not black then it is not a raven", given that it isn'...

That's the paradox. The existence of green apples is relevant to and so is evidence for the truth of "if something is not black then it is not a raven...

I didn't just use the word "equivalent". I used the term "logically equivalent" which has a strict definition in logic.

Neither "2 + 2" nor "4" are truth-apt propositions. Therefore it's wrong to say that "2 + 2" and "4" are logically equivalent. Again with the previous...

If we go by the definition here, "Evidence, broadly construed, is anything presented in support of an assertion. This support may be strong or weak. T...

And that's the point. According to the paradox, the existence of green apples is evidence for the claim "if something isn't black then it isn't a rave...

I don't understand this. If I were to say "if you are from Wales then you are a woman" then you can provide evidence (or even proof) against this clai...