That's true. It's not in the set. Neither is 15. But 15 is, for all that, the expected value of both envelopes. The total value of any pair of envelop...
Given a set {10, 20}, the expected value of a number selected from that set is 15. There's nothing wrong with your first set of equations, and it give...
Consider what the halfer says next with my marble analogy: which marble-holding-self this is was selected by a coin toss. That's the same as saying wh...
Here's a halfer analogy I found convincing before: Two urns, one with a single white marble, one with many black marbles; you flip a coin to decide wh...
I think it's hard. If you wake up and ask yourself "Which of the selves I could have become while I was asleep am I?" there are two ways to take that....
What are we supposed to learn here? I mainly take it as a logic puzzle: there's a bit of fallacious reasoning, you have to spot it, explain why it's f...
Going back five years. The "puzzle" is not figuring out what the right way to analyze this is -- although @"Michael" did argue, at length, in the old ...
You may be right -- and surely this is true for many Republicans, but also Democrats -- that this is intended as a deliberate move to benefit the owne...
There are two reasonable ways to assign variables to the set from which you will select your envelope: {x, 2x} and {x, x/2}. Either works so long as y...
For an analogy: it's 11 am, and you're asleep in bed; how old are you? Odds are you're one of the ages where you were more often asleep in bed at 11 a...
This is a quote from Descartes posted by @"Fooloso4" next door in that thread: We can say of the sleeping beauty problem, just as a way of beginning, ...
In a sense yes. The cut is a "committed choice" thing, and you could take that as representing the dealer's not monkeying with the envelopes once he's...
Since we've all been throwing code around, here's a curiosity in Prolog: envelope_pair(X, ) :- A is 2 * X, B is div(X, 2), ( maybe -> member(Y, ) ; me...
There is a difference between these two claims: 1. I have a 1 in 2 chance of picking the larger of two envelopes. 2. The envelope I have chosen has a ...
Is that line particularly clear? Isn't this exactly the sort of thing people very often disagree about? ("Allowing"???) But this is odd. It takes cons...
How specific? Is there not more than one way of asking? Of thanking? Of affirming or doubting? Are there not specific sorts of specificity? How finely...
No, that's the probability that the coin was heads given that I'm being interviewed. The trouble is on the RHS, the probability that I am being interv...
But these are useless, uninformative, ambiguous categories. What you want is the odds that this interview is a heads-type interview. If Beauty could d...
Meaning? And how do you expect to apply Bayes's rule without any base rate information? SB can reason as I have described to determine what those base...
The point of the variation is that she is told something will happen only at the second heads interview. Fill in whatever you like, it will be missing...
I switched back shortly after that post; it's right there in the thread. The argument that convinced me was this: consider a variation, "Informative S...
Suppose you actually did this, as an experiment, just looking for each subject's response. Let's say you have 1200 subjects; one coin toss each, and l...
So close, but isn't it the case that Hume is precisely discovering that a lot of mental activity cannot be attributed to the senses or to reason? Isn'...
This is just assertion. I'm not taking a position on whether you're right, but on what grounds will anyone agree or disagree? Honestly, the only thing...
One point about the analysis I was offering is that it is deductively more palatable. Whenever we've talked about Gettier on the forum, or introductio...
Charles Mingus, Blues and Roots Story behind this one, I believe, is that one of the Ertegun brothers suggested he do a whole record in the vein of Ha...
As a pianist, Ellington is thought of as having a percussive style, as opposed to say the fluidity of Art Tatum, the great pianist of the swing era. S...
I have very strong doubts that stories count as possible worlds. I don't see how to avoid semantic issues: the truth conditions of "Frodo carried the ...
Not sure I agree. I already worried over this a bit too, so I get the concern here. I think the essence of this objection is to deny that the existent...
I think the general view is that inference confers justification no more than it confers truth; rather, valid deduction is often expected to conserve ...
Some nice points in this thread, which I'll reread. I'm only surprised no one has yet used the phrase "instrumental rationality," which could be defin...
He and George Adams (ts) were in Mingus's last quartet, and then carried on as a band. Pullen had a unique technique that involved rolling his hand ov...
My starting point was maybe his first record as a leader. He does a killer version of Bemsha Swing. Gets how Monk had already broken into, let's say, ...
If you've listened to some other earlyish Ornette but not to Free Jazz, just spin it. There's just more players, but it's very listenable. I only fina...
I think this is exactly the point of difficulty. I know I'm going to have trouble explaining it, because I can't quite see it clearly myself, but here...
Couple things about Elvin Jones: he told some interviewer that part of the secret of his style, the polyrhythmic thing, is that he always hits somethi...
"Unreasonable" cannot be the right word here. There's no "seems to be" about it. He says it in so many words. I quoted him saying it on page 1 of the ...
No. They have to help. It sounds like you don't understand the game, don't play very well, and are frustrated. Please stop. Learn about the game or do...
Whether I went to Atlanta is not a matter of whether anyone said it. Whether Pippin went to Mordor is exactly a matter of whether Tolkien said it. Lea...
And again, I'm not saying they are. Here's one way "Washington has crossed the Delaware" can depend on context: if the context is the Revolutionary Wa...
No, I'm saying that the form of the proposition expressed by "Frodo went to Mordor" is different from the form of the proposition expressed by "George...
I get the impulse to say this, I do, but I think it's more complicated than that. You would somehow distinguish between a person who read LOTR as a no...
If you haven't heard it listen to Out of This World, the opening track of Coltrane's self-titled release on Impulse! Mine for today is Pharaoh Sanders...
Two ways to look at this. (1) When Hume say 'Nature' deemed this matter, the belief in body, so important that it did not leave it up to our fallible ...
Did you lose again right before posting this? Not always. * Decide if you want to be a better player. If you do, that is an achievable goal. Have a lo...
Comments