There is no third flip. The coin is only tossed once. When it lands Tails, Sleeping Beauty is awakened twice and when it lands Heads, she is awakened ...
I used to make a heavy use of em dashes before ChatGPT came out and people began to identify them as a mark of AI generated text. So, I stopped using ...
Maybe plagiarism isn't quite the right term, but I'm happy to grant you the point. In the discussion about the new TPF rule regarding ChatGPT and sour...
I would never dare use a phrase that I first read in a thesaurus, myself. I'd be much too worried that the author of the thesaurus might sue me for co...
I'm unsure in what way the OP proposal is meant to strengthen the already existing prohibition on the use of AI. Maybe the OP is concerned with this p...
Halfers don't condition on the propostion "I am experiencing an awakening". They contend that for SB to be awakened several times, rather than once, i...
Oh yes, good point. I had overlooked this question. Indeed, in that case your variation bears more directly on the original SB thought experiment. One...
I had misunderstood your original post, having read it obliquely. I had thought you meant for the participants to experience, over the duration of one...
I’m with you on the distinction. "Proclivity" and "frequency" aren’t the same thing. The only point I’m making is simple: in my shiny-penny story, a c...
I agree with your Bayesian formulation, except that we're more used to follow with Elga's convention, and predicate two awakenings on Tails, such that...
While Thirders and Halfers disagree on the interpretation of SB's credence expressed as "the likelihood that the die didn't land on a six", once this ...
I didn't provide a detailed response to your post because you didn't address it to me or mention me. I read it and didn't find anything objectionable ...
I didn't ignore your post. I read it and referred to it in a reply to Michael as a more aposite (than his) elucidation of the Thirder position. It's t...
I'm coming back to one of the two paragraphs you had flagged as the most important part of your comment. I assume that the singular event that is the ...
I've acknowledged this distinction. It's not the credence alone that governs the rational betting behavior. It's the (well defined) credence in combin...
According to a standard Thirder analysis, prior to being put to sleep, SB deems the two possible coin toss outcomes to be equally likely. When she awa...
She gets two opportunities to escape if the coin landed tails (or rather she is twice as likely to have an opportunity to escape when the coin landed ...
I agree that her credence in the outcome (however this outcome is characterized) isn't determined by the betting rules. The betting rules, though, can...
P3—"The probability that the die did land on a 6 is 1/6"—is an ambiguous statement since, although it makes reference to the die, it fails to sufficie...
I wonder why you are so insistent on this arbitrary payout structure. Why not make an even-money payout on each occasion where she is being awakened a...
The doors are encountered randomly. I agree that the situation isn't perfectly analogous to the SB problem since SB doesn't "choose" randomly among se...
A thirder will not agree with A4 or A5. If SB is allowed to change her bet when she awakens, she must do do consistently as a matter of policy since s...
Unless my memory is faulty, the variation we had discussed (two years ago) was one where Sleeping Beauty was awakened only once, on Monday, unless the...
In most formulations of the problem, she is not being asked "What is the probability that a die landed (past tense) tails" from some sort of a disenga...
I asked GPT-5 (Thinking mode selected) for its take on the recent discussion about the Sleeping Beauty problem. I am rather impressed with the way it ...
That's right. If this had been the question there would be no apparent paradox and the answer would unambiguously be 6/11. But notice that she isn't b...
@"Michael" I am happy to grant you all of this (except for the last comment regarding credence updating), not as a resolution of the paradox however, ...
She doesn't change her bet because although her credence changes, the specific payoff structure doesn't warrant her doing so. Before the experiment be...
Thanks for the reference to Cudworth! That's something I'll have to look into more. So, I think we are agreed that we can take from Descartes the idea...
In this short conversation that I have had two or three days ago with GPT-5, we examined a thought experiment about epistemology that I had much toyed...
In a way, surprisingly, yes! More precisely, the hylomorphic account creates conceptual space for f-monstrosity rather than p-zombiehood. It's a topic...
I have had a few more discussions with GPT-5 and, in spite of the bad press that this new model got (maybe mainly from people who expected a miracle i...
Yes, that's very much my argument against MoK "functional" definition of weak emergence. Either the existence of the relevant "function" (i.e. the map...
The way the model adjudicates between competing opinions it has been exposed to, or discerns areas of consensus, is fairly similar to the way you and ...
I'm not entirely sure what's going on here. Such refusals seem uncharacteristic but seeing the whole chat/context might help seeing what it is that th...
In the follow-up to a discussion I had with GPT-5, where I had requested comments on my recent response to @"Leontiskos" regarding political opinions ...
The new GPT-5 also seems quite personable to me, and much more inclined to propose corrections, clarification or caveats to my comments than previous ...
The model also seems to be walking on egg shells, not knowing from the context of the conversation what your own political views are and not wanting t...
There is a sharp difference between a pre-trained (raw next-token predictor) LLM and a post-trained instruction-tuned and aligned LLM. The pre-trained...
Nice! Adapting Packer's analysis, they've been first highjacked by Free America... and more recently by the new 'Smart America'+'Free America' elite/m...
By the way, after my last reply, I've adapted the question I had asked Claude 4 Opus and gave it to GPT-5. While its first reply (regarding its famili...
That may depend on the framing of the question. Owing to the way they've been post-trained, all LLMs are largely unable to offer political opinions of...
In my second conversation with GPT-5 (where I selected the option "GPT-5 Thinking) I gave it the following prompt in order to assess its creative writ...
I'm bringing this back here from my GPT-4 thread since the core issue raised by @"MoK" is the emergence of the ability to create ideas. What I would h...
Here are two more turn in my conversation with GPT-5 reported above. This continuation was meant to test how well GPT-5 is able to adapt a complex phi...
The new OpenAI model GPT-5 dropped yesterday. I only had one discussion with it so far. It seems fairly smart! It made good use of ChatGPT's standard ...
I wanted to add some more reflections about that, agreeing, I think, with Juarrero on the significance of context. The dynamical structures at issue, ...
Simulating a process merely is to reproduce some high-level features of this process in a different medium. It can be an easier way for researchers to...
Comments