Jeremiah

That is because you are wrong. Knowing which door is empty is the new information which calls for a reallocation of credibility. You know now one of t...

She is never told it is Monday, each awaking is the same, there is no hint as to which day it is; temporally she is uncertain of her location. So what...

I am gonna argue that the outcome of the coin flip and when Beauty is awakened are two completely different events. The coin flip with pull a subset o...

That is not at all how it works. A simple random sample is a subset from the population where n members of the population have a chance of being selec...

You are not a very honest person.

Also since when did a Bayesian approach become the gold standard, what about a Classical approach? There is a chance mechanism, the coin flip, it will...

The fact that we can come up with the 1/3 and justify it without the experiment even being ran just proves that it is not a posterior, it is a prior. ...

Beauty doesn't gain relevant new information when awakening, she knew all this before hand. If we do the experiment on you, then you have a prior beli...

This was my prior response, that I already posted before a few pages back.

I already posted both of their responses.

I understand a no spoilers approach, after you exhaust it on your own you should give them a read. I am not convinced it contradicts the 1/3, but inst...

That was Lewis' argument in that paper I linked. Starting on page 3 he lays both arguments out. http://fitelson.org/probability/lewis_sb.pdf

Sure, she knew that would be the case before even starting, but when she is awaken she has no new information on if it is Monday or Tuesday. You are n...

Would you consider the 2/3 debacle an argument against the 1/3 argument and for the 1/2 argument?

Your "above variation" is confusing you and honestly the colors of the balls would not make any difference. Monday and heads is still only one out of ...

It needs two blue balls and one red ball. Listen I am not doing the example gambit; you people come up with all these examples and some can be represe...

However, it is not. When awakened Beauty does not know if it is Monday or Tuesday. The problem with a Bayesian approach is that in order to update you...

And that does not change the fact that P(T) = P(T & M) = 50%

I agree the 1/2 argument has its merits as a valid argument, but not for the reasons you are listing. Probability is not reallocated evenly between Tu...

Tails grantees Monday as well. She is awakened on Monday regardless of if it is tails or heads.

I am, you are reallocating the 50% for a tails flip across two days; however, it is not reallocated across two days, it is the two days. When Beauty i...

Right I agree with that, and have from the start.

I never disagreed with that, I don't really feel you are understanding what I am saying.

And a 50% chance of that she is awakened on Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore a 33% of Monday and Heads. What you are not considering is that from the ...

Here you might find these papers interesting. https://www.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/sleeping/sleeping.html http://fitelson.org/probability/lewis_sb....

It is a fair coin flip, so the chance of Monday and Heads is 50% and the chance for Monday and Tails is 50%. Since on one tails flip she is awakened o...

That is not new information, she knew she'd be awakened beforehand. New relevant and significance information to reallocating creditably would be if s...

And yet the other one was generating more discussion.

Yes, Beauty is aware the coin is fair, but she has also been told the details of the experiment and knows there are three possible events in which she...

None of it is misdirection, this problem has several possible rational answers. We are not talking about just different points of view, or different r...

I didn't count it twice. I am saying P (Tails and Monday) and P (Tails and Tuesday) have the same likelihood of occurring because they are determined ...

P (Tails and Monday) and P (Tails and Tuesday) are the same flip. Are you really suggesting they have a different chance of occurring when they both o...

It is a fair coin, fair means 50% chance the coin come up heads and and 50% chance it comes up tails. When Beauty is awakened she has to provide the p...

The coin is only flipped once. Clearly . . . . They are the same flip. It is pointless to argue independence. That is like saying I rolled a die and g...

Consider it this way: P(Tails|Monday) = P(Tails|Tuesday) Right? Because they are on the same flip they have the same probability. Now if the coin is f...

Well let's break it down. If the coin flip is heads then Beauty is awakened on Monday but sleeps though Tuesday. If the coin flip is tails Beauty is a...

What is truly childish is pretending these paradoxes belong only in select conversation.

I never read any Nietzsche, and I am likely much older than you think.

Your entire argument boils down to a child throwing a fit because the neighbor kid is playing with his/her toys.

:brow:

And you claim you are not an elitist. . . .

What is oddly backwards about your entire argument, is that I am using these paradoxes to generate discussion, which is their central reason for engag...

I disagree, obviously.

The OP clearly did exactly what I wanted it to do. It was chosen for its value as a center of conversation, that was the defining reason. The only thi...

I get the context I need to understand the underlying concepts and do the math. Honestly do you have any idea how many theories and theorems a student...

I am fairly sure I did, so clearly I can. Btw, do you know what ad hominem is? I study math, and I pay very little attention as to where it came from....

He was talking about the layperson, you are missing the context. Also set theory exist in mathematics, I am able and trained in reading the notation a...

We don't need to reinvent the wheel with every thread.

Let me explain the purpose of these conundrums that I have been posting. They are here to generate discussion and I don't care if they are paradoxes, ...

Wait, let me get the dead horse for you. . . . Call it whatever you like, but changing the name is not a real argument.