I should also add to this that I'm speaking hypothetically. This work has already been done and disputes the claim. It is not a mystery what factors a...
Thanks, that ties in with what I thought you were doing, but I wasn't sure. So it might help to put some numbers in? Group 1 - those who are going to ...
I'm trying to follow your line of argument here (or rather your request for clarification), but your terminology is a little confusing in places. It m...
No! Who the hell thinks people over 60 are at the end of their lives. I bloody hope not. Yes. In the context (and supported by David Spiegelhalter, wh...
Yeah, fair enough. I'm using random in the sense of not possible to control for. As in, some as yet hidden factor, some non-measurable element of chan...
Yeah, absolutely. I think I did mention it somewhere, but it should be made even more clear. All this only applies to the developed world. The overlap...
They are not comorbidity groups larger than "likely to die within a year". They are exactly comorbidity groups that are likely to die within a year. T...
I'm not sure, though. I get how that would not be reflected in the comorbidities from the death certificates, but I don't see how that gets around the...
No. A comorbidity sufficient to be be mentioned on a death certificate is extremely likely to to cause death within the year. Doctors do not fill in d...
As I've said, take it up with the professionals who disagree with you, or present some counter-citations. Your personal 'rekon' that it won't be large...
I'm aware of that. I was simply making the point that what might be a 60% overlap in a year could be a 90% overlap in two years. Picking one year is q...
Just noticed this. The risk group (those who are significantly more at risk than average) include the overweight and those with diabetes. The comorbid...
You're right, and of course, the timescale matters. Thinking about overlap with deaths this year is a fairly arbitrary cut off point (why not the next...
You said... You can't say that they'd be imagining it without having done the analysis. Presuming here we're talking somewhat rhetorically. If you lit...
Thank you. That's kind of you to say so. Not too far from you it seems. My main concern is the psychological impact in two major ways. 1. We needed to...
This is a non-sequitur. When a plan is put into place and the threat it was intended to avoid does not materialise we can say it was the plan, or we c...
Yes. It depends entirely on the type and effect of comorbidities. The fact is that the overlap is unknown and will remain unknown until the end of the...
It never ceases to amaze me the lengths people will go to to maintain their chosen narrative. Apparently when Spiegelhalter uses the words 'many' and ...
Why don't you just take it up with the experts, they both have blogs. I can't be bothered with this condescending "I'll teach you where you've gone wr...
Actually, please just ignore the last two paragraphs of my last post. I don't really want to discuss that. I just wanted to explain some of the reason...
No, you gave a small number of minor factors without any citations to back them up and nothing to counter the cited evidence I provided of the major f...
There is. Loans, postponing leave, postponing retirement, postponing investment plans. There's all sorts of ways of borrowing from the future. Right. ...
Here's David Spiegelhalter explaining what he means by those figures. He's very good at explaining these things (it is, afterall his job). So, if the ...
The number of people recorded as having died 'of' a particular condition is heavily dependent on the manner in which the death certificate is recorded...
Just in case anyone else has jumped to the conclusion that because I mentioned the statistical implications of overlap in mortality cohorts I'm obviou...
Just repeating that your analysis is right doesn't make it right. Them being large risk groups does not in itself mean that they are not graduated alo...
I'm just repeating myself, and so are you, so this is getting pointless. You're pointing out that the factors do not entirely overlap. I'm saying that...
You keep talking in vague generalities and obscure factors. To support your position you have to demonstrate that the vast majority of factors definin...
Have you seen people ignoring it? Last time I looked the world was practically hysterical about it. There's certainly a considerable disagreement as t...
What are these factors then (presumably ones which don't also overlap with factors making death from Covid-19 more likely)? Really? In what way? Presu...
Firstly, yes there is a reason. Those most likely to die in the "heart disease" group are those with the weakest hearts (for various reasons), those a...
This is trivial compared to the disproportionate risk having heart disease, lung conditions or undergoing treatment for cancer has on your risk from d...
I'm not suggesting none of the "particularly unhealthy" will remain. Only that they constitue both the cohort from which Covid-19 draws most of its fa...
No they don't, because if everyone is equally likely to be infected then the liklihood of infection can be removed from the equation. It's only releva...
Then where is the random mechanism? If you agree that it is failure of the immune response and supporting organs which leads to death, then it directl...
Covid-19 kills people either by the lungs filling with fluid as a result of a failure of the immune system (sometimes from comorbid bacterial infectio...
Ahh yes. The search for external social group validation for one's beliefs. You know that's a fairly modern phenomena? It's not really seen in hunter-...
Iceland has, to my knowledge, done the most extensive testing so far. Their (preliminary) results are here The other respected dataset is Estonia whic...
Yes, I'll certainly grant that they have that very broad range of factors in common. But not all cases have all three. A mathematical truth has nothin...
But it's not a pattern which has no causal mechanism to significantly overlap an existing pattern. Why do you think the government has sent out specif...
But I wasn't talking about using perceptions to define 'truth'. I was talking about using perception to distinguish 'true dog' from 'false dog'. There...
500,000 people die every year - from which group do you think these deaths are drawn? If these groups do not form the ones who would have "died anyway...
Where's this? Just on the face of it if this were true then we'd expect to see a doubling of the death rate in all age groups, yet we see absolutely n...
Can't find the exact article I remembered so I'll defer to your greater expertise and presume I either remembered it wrong or misunderstood it in the ...
So 1) A spike in the death rate is only a snapshot at a particular moment. The 6000 extra people who died last week are not now available to form the ...
I don't want to step on your obviously far more qualified toes, but I think you missed a few (while we're making a list), please do correct me if I'm ...
If, when I pat it, my arm goes right through, it's probably a false dog. But this is just tautology, as here 'false dog' just means 'one which my arm ...
I'm afraid psychology doesn't cover what we ought to do (despite the appearances to the contrary from some of the field's more nefarious representativ...
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