Isaac

I thought I recalled something along those lines...the analogy was tailored. True, but that's just my failure to produce a suitable analogy. In chess ...

Briefly, I was given a copy so it's on my reading shelf. As I said before I don't entirely see eye to eye with Kahneman, but I've always liked his sty...

Let me start by just clearing up that reasoning (by which I mean a set of thinking methods that are well-known to preserve or approach more true concl...

Indeed. The key variable being how IBM-like any theory is. IBM were the 'right' choice from the first moment they produced their first reliable, capab...

One can be measured by the other as a proxy, but a flaw's difficulty to spot exists independently of the existence of experts spotting it, so it's sti...

Thanks, that's indeed what I meant, and a very necessary bit of clarity. I've edited accordingly.

Let me try another example that might make this clearer (for anyone who might be reading along). Imagine there's a bridge across a river with a single...

Well, it does quite literally 100% of the time, that's just the nature of scientific progress (by which I mean the mechanism, not each and every unlik...

You don't really need to go this far, your first approach was fine. Probabilities are a function of variables. The variables which make an expert more...

Since you're all making exactly the same argument, I'll reply to you all here and save time. 1. People take risks with their lives all the time for al...

You have your own private air supply? What's that got to do with the fact of the matter. Whether you 'feel' a connection doesn't have any bearing on w...

I'm not following your argument at all here. None of us are experts sufficiently to judge the various facts of the case, yes? I'm with you so far. You...

But your only criteria for identifying these people is that they win. That's not the criteria you're using here. The criteria you're using here is tha...

No it hasn't. At least not in a way any of us here can dispute. Let's say for the sake of argument that the vaccine is 100% effective. Does that now m...

What a stunningly naive thing to say. You share the same air, water, food sources, economy, oil reserves, enemies (sometimes), future... If Bob is une...

And you may be right. As I said earlier, I probably wouldn't argue from a social norm position. I'm just interested in where this leads. So with that ...

Briefly just wanted to say - If you've read anything I've written previously about ethics (although why would you have done), you'll see this is very ...

You nailed it further down. Appraising our own stories is a private exercise, we may find one story is too untenable, too conflicting, or just simply ...

And how do they go about doing that? Is it 'true' that abortion is unacceptable after six weeks, or is it 'false'? What on earth would true and false ...

People don't care about stuff because they ought to.

Then why the praise? If they've not done something ethically praiseworthy? Are just personally pleased with them? OK. So, same question but for laymen...

The state didn't create the problem, it proffered a solution to it. The problem pre-exists. People compete over scarce resources. Mostly the strong wi...

No, none at all. The issue is that, without knowing them at all, you characterise those who disagree with you as having formed their opinions from fiv...

Have I done this? If you can find an example, I'd be sorely disappointed It's certainly been my intention and (as far as I can remember) my actual rea...

Sorry, my mood was perhaps worse than I ought to have allowed myself to communicate whilst in. Yes, that's exactly the purpose, I think, of the storie...

Yes. By what I understand to be modelling. A model is just a device which generates a probability function of producing some result given some input. ...

I was using it as an example. Most aphasics suffer damage to one of the two main language regions, they don't lose them entirely. The point is that it...

Ha! We all think we're better than average drivers, have better than average senses of humour...Notwithstanding, your knowledge is still second hand, ...

That's cool, I'm always interested in ideas. Yes, in classical 'moral dilemma' terms, this is a moral dilemma we all face (as opposed to the seeming a...

Linguistic, the answer is an easy yes. Aphasia doesn't preclude modelling (although it disrupts it - so there's a link). Symbolically, I'd say it depe...

Of course they're connected. You benefit from their unemployment. Do you seriously know this little about economics? What, all four thousand of them? ...

Odd that you've only given two choices there. "the overwhelming medical, scientific consensus" vs. "a Facebook meme and YouTube influencer". Do you se...

Already have though. from the famous (infamous) Asch, Milgram and Zimbardo, through to the less famous stuff like Birney, Burdick, and Teevan (work on...

How could you possibly know? Any dispute you lacked indication of you wouldn't know about, so there might be thousands. Well, at the moment beneficiar...

Well, it's my job. But yeah, mostly just out of curiosity.

I was referring to "...distrustful of everything except their favored media". Do you really think the majority of people trust a variety of sources ou...

Possibly, but I'm under no illusions that any of this changes people's minds one way or another. It's an exercise in finding out what (and how) people...

How would they make you aware? Then just reiterate your point for me, if you will. It's possible I've got lost. Well they seemed so. You appeared to b...

Yes, I think so. From a position of uncertainty about the variables, we might want to be wary (from a desire for surprise avoidance) of developing mod...

Well then describe the mechanism. The 14 thousand unemployed in your country claim a little of your pay to support them in their unemployment. What do...

Ridiculous, there are millions of people in your country alone, all of whom have a claim. This idea of managing an entire country by individual agreem...

Everyone who is a beneficiary of taxes then is in dispute with you about who owns the taxed portion of you pay, they all think it's them. No, but peop...

It'd be even harder for every person to come to an agreement with every other. This is just fantasist nonsense. So? So

And what was the outcome of your talk with the government about your disagreement over who owns the taxed portion of your pay?

How do you propose the government talks to each and every person to reach individually tailored agreements as to what belongs to whom?

But it's good to hear we've resolved the whole 'tax' issue. Since you believe that one... You won't be wanting to take home that portion of your pay t...

I didn't ask you that. I asked you how we reach an agreement about what belongs to whom. You said you weren't opposed to agreement, but you don't cons...

You think that's a minority group?

Oh, so which method of reaching agreement on who owns what do you want? Democracy's no good for you it seems. Consensus perhaps? Would you have us con...

Interesting. As a guess, trust. If we're short-cutting, then the only reason to give that up is if it's not giving us unsurprising results. So to unde...