Andrew M

In the case of complex numbers, the idea was sound but there was initially no visualization. It was just a technique that allowed mathematicians to so...

The Pythagorean Theorem is also useful for visualizing relativistic spacetime. Consider the twin paradox. Suppose Alice stays at home in lockdown for ...

Do you have a reference for the 1-8% false positives? I'm curious how those numbers could be arrived at even granting human error or poor lab protocol...

See the earlier discussion and papers referenced here and here. If you still disagree, do you have a reference? Note: Clarified comment you responded ...

False negatives will occur with RT-PCR tests if there isn't enough virus in the sample to be detected. While there's no certainty that a person doesn'...

Yes, to clarify, the paper just describes outbreaks that were stopped in Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Yes, it doesn't help if actors at the federal level actively promote the opposite of what needs to be done or are otherwise inept. Nonetheless if some...

The best technical source I'm aware of on the eradication strategy is the New England Complex Systems Institute (Stopping the Coronavirus Pandemic). F...

Local governments can close their borders and comprehensively test. That will either detect asymptomatics or, at least, isolate them within a geograph...

:100: Unfortunately that interview is a mixed bag for me. While Osterholm correctly describes the problems the US are having, he seems to dismiss supp...

Superspreader!

This presents a problem in Philadelphia which is why they had to issue a public health warning about it... https://twitter.com/PHLPublicHealth/status/...

You can make your own. Even home-made masks provide some level of protection.

And if everyone wore masks then that would mean there would be a double barrier between people. Also a 20% reduction in the reproduction number (R) ca...

Regions move to lockdown because of the potential downside consequences of not doing so. The consequences of not locking down need to be factored in a...

It isn't the lockdowns that are causing disruptions to treatment programmes and food production, it's the virus. It's not legitimate to just compare h...

Per the https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries reference that Banno linked and I also discussed here. See it as "currently winning" as opposed to "h...

That's not fair. Trump has a clear plan. Phase 1: Send people back to work Phase 2: ??? Phase 3: Profit!!!

:up: I think it's useful in this thread to see the stages that various countries are at. The daily case graphs (10-day average) of other countries tha...

My take is that since outbreaks started later in Sweden and other Scandinavian countries than in the rest of Europe and the US, they have had time to ...

Three cheers for throwback democracy. The experts said to apply the hammer. The politicians listened.

Spiegelhalter clarifies his statements (as a result of their misunderstanding) on twitter: "I fully admit the graph doesn’t tell the story: it just sh...

That's one goal, but not the only one... With the suppression (or hammer) strategy, the goal is to get the epidemic under control as quickly as possib...

But that's just what they want! They're a step ahead of you!

That's good news. An earlier reaction means less lives will be lost and less damage to the local economy. They have a chance of getting test-and-trace...

It's not. So I'm happy to start over. The LA Times' claim that there is a new cluster of cases in Wuhan is unsubstantiated.

I pointed out the LA Time's lack of justification - I said the author's reference didn't mention Wuhan. And I made my claim after doing a lengthy sear...

No, I'm not there. I see that the author has made an unsubstantiated claim. Doesn't that bother you?

It hasn't. As far as I can tell, the author of that piece just made that up. He links to another LA Times article that doesn't even mention Wuhan.

I disagree with their priorities - they are missing the forest for the trees. If there's a tiger roaming the streets, you get your family inside first...

Yes that's an excellent example. In that context, passing such a law does not violate human rights, it protects them (i.e., no-one has the right to ri...

No, you literally are helping others by staying home. You are reducing the paths of transmission that the virus can take. If you are sick, you are the...

Correct. The actual issue is that when faced with a risk where the downside is large (or should I say yuuuge - in this case, millions of lives lost), ...

Our leaders don't need to be geniuses with time machines. They simply need to observe what is happening in the world around them (or listen to experts...

It does, but China has time and options now for learning more about the virus, and figuring out what actions work and what do not. If the virus spread...

Panic is the appropriate and rational response when you discover a fire is tearing through your neighborhood. COVID-19 is that fire and it is in your ...

Yes, agreed. South Korea/Singapore got ahead of the curve early on, which NZ was not able to do (before lockdown).

So the numbers are in: Confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States: Mar 26: 81,966 (+26%) Mar 27: 100,997 (+23%) Mar 28: 121,105 (+20%) Mar 29: 141,...

Flying blind. At the other extreme, New Zealand have been on lockdown for several days and had its first death yesterday.

Two days ago (March 24, 2020): That same day: Today it is March 26, 2020 in the United States. The US has just passed China in the number of confirmed...

I've seen several econ bloggers link to this twitter thread by infectious disease expert Tom Inglesby.

In Trump's mind, a deadline for returning to work provides business certainty which will be the basis for "resurrecting" the economy. In reality, ther...

As of now, Australia's government is blissfully going down the US/Europe route. Apply the hammer, folks, before more people unnecessarily die. -- Univ...

Things should and are being tried. But such tests and vaccines require time to develop and try. So the most important priority is to buy the necessary...

:100: The abstract from the working paper referred to in that article: From the introduction:

Yes it has.

Perhaps so, but note that there are presently no approved immunity tests for covid-19. They will take time to develop and validate. In the meantime, t...

I'm giving it three days. The spread of the virus must be brought under control first - the alternative is many unnecessary deaths.

Yes, definitely. I'm mainly thinking of the stringent travel bans and closures which are the most expensive measures.

The deaths are due primarily to a spike in late February after a "superspreader" (patient 31) infected 43 people and the virus rapidly spread. The dai...