What will Putin ask for?
Assume that you are Vladimir Putin - you have been absolute ruler of Russia for more than 17 years, your ratings are the highest they have ever been (70%+ approval), your people love you and you have ambitions to re-establish the former Soviet Union because you know your time is running out, and if you don't, history books will forget you. Now is the opportune time as you have an American administration which is willing to collaborate with you (read - compromise) in order fulfil American interests. The stronghold you hold over Syria - as that is where ISIS is located - is of geo-strategic interest to the Americans in their war against terrorism - that's your leverage. In exchange for helping the US eliminate ISIS and terrorism, what will you ask for back? Is it Ukraine? Is it Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Hungary? Is it the dissolution of NATO? Please keep in mind that Russia has been, for the past 10 years, modernising and investing massively in military - and also in propaganda, such as this:
If you were Putin in this scenario, what would you ask for, and what would you want to do - and why?
If you were Putin in this scenario, what would you ask for, and what would you want to do - and why?
Comments (31)
Nor does he have a hope in hell of dissolving NATO. The US is the wealthiest country in the world, the largest exporter, and our largest manufactured export being weapons. We sell 40% of the weapons sold anywhere in the world and pay half the costs for NATO and the UN. Europe couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag without US support because its empire baby and this train ain't stopping until she derails. Putin is simply pissed off that he was never invited to feast at the table and the Chinese, Russia's age old enemies, are starting to gain on him.
He wants a place at the table and any advantage he can get. Technologically Russia is about to be left behind in the dark ages if they don't establish themselves as more than a talent pool for other countries to recruit from. They have tremendous resources, but at the rate automation is going they won't be able to make any real use of them to their advantage because the US controls all the markets. That's how empires work, is by controlling the distribution of goods. We control the weapons and everyone else coughs up whatever we want at the prices we demand. In fact, the US dollar underscores practically every economy in the world and we decide what anyone's money is worth.
Yes yes, like Hillary said that Trump's supporters are a basket of deplorables.... see what happened to her because of such cock-sureness and disrespect for her opponent?
Quoting wuliheron
Why would the US throw all its money and resources towards opposing his efforts? The fucking US barely managed to handle Iraq. Give me a break. Look at your debt after going in Iraq. It's disgusting. You think the US will take the chance with Russia? The debt will go to 500 trillion then >:O Don't be silly. And if Putin takes over a few Baltic States what does the US stand to lose? Almost nothing. So let's see - nothing vs 500 trillion? Which one will you choose?
Quoting wuliheron
Ehm not really - they didn't lose anything. They have actually gained by breaking up at that moment in time and opening to the outside world.
They are not the Soviet Union anymore and are fighting people inside what where their old borders, but please feel free to claim they are stronger than ever.
For a "huge" cooperation with the US in the dealing with ISIS, have the sanctions lifted.
Ask for the West to accept/recognize the annexation of Crimea and have Peace-process in Eastern Ukraine favourable to Russian interests. That will shatter the belief in the US in Eastern Europe quite well.
Hence the above is the "reboot" of US-Russians relations.
Like happened with Dubya Bush.
- and then the war in Georgia happened.
And then with Obama, the next "reboot".
- and then the war in Ukraine happened.
And now will happen with Trump: the third reboot.
After that, then you have an empty board to go further... keep playing the game as you have since 2000.
Don't underestimate the strategic importance of Syria, (which goes back more than a century). Russia is the largest country in the world, but really only has one reliable warm water port, (I suppose they could just wait for global warming instead).
If you study military and political strategy, a lot of the efforts between the US and Russia in the area make perfect sense. Why Russia wanted to "liberate" Crimea and supports Assad, while the US help "rebels" seeking to overthrow Assad. The whole area has been a "proxy war". Remember the "red line" that, if crossed, would mean direct US intervention, (which was almost unanimously rejected by Americans)? It is currently in a very precarious position. The dissolution of NATO would be a disaster for the US side and many of the allies it has built up in the region.
The US has no interest in allowing Russia anything. If Assad wins the war with Russian help it is much more advantageous for the US to finally invade on humanitarian grounds and control the port themselves. Germany needed a port during WWII and preventing its acquisition would have prevented all hell from breaking out. Russia is the Bear waiting to escape its cage with the real question being what will the US be willing to trade with them instead. Putin's provocative international politics give him something he can leverage at the bargaining table with the remaining question being how much is it worth, but the idea the US or even China will allow a dictator in charge of that kind of industrial power and resources to run wild is laughable.
NATO is a US organization just like the UN. We pay half the bills and provide all the real resources and if nobody else likes it they can go to hell. We are the eight hundred pound gorilla in the room that already brought that bear to its knees and nobody trusts that bear as far as they can throw it, while the US has been called an enemy you can trust, if for no other reason, because all we care about is the money and weapons which we already control. If by some weird chance NATO fell apart despite it expanding in recent years it would mean that WWIII has broken out and new alliances are being made.
If Trump or anyone else attempted to dissolve it without being prepared for WWIII the Pentagon and Secret Service would execute him on the spot.
If I were in Putin's place, I don't think I would see the US as being able to offer anything except to get out of the way. The US has already destroyed itself socially and economically and burned most of its bridges with its allies. China would a great ally as it would pragmatically shift toward a similar political and economic structure. If the US burns its bridges with NATO and China, Russia would be looking forward to a new golden age.
Quoting wuliheron
I remember the stories my father told, serving under NATO exchange projects. The US has fiercely guarded relationships with member countries. I remember stories about how many things had to be done to maintain those relationships that was rarely shared with the general public. It seems to me that we aren't so much in control as we are a guest who has long overstayed our welcome. Even the suggestion of trying to change the current arrangement is enough to create an economic and political crisis.
You have it backwards, alone and often combined the US NATO allies could not fight their way out of a wet paper bag by themselves. That is why we keep funding both NATO and the UN because its empire and we make more money off protecting mutual investments with weapons being our number one manufactured export. Even the countries we give aid to return more to the US than the aid we provide, we consume half the world's resources, and the military has become so large we have taken on the role of coming to almost anyone's aid in a natural disaster. We are the new landlords in town and everyone knows damned well what their alternatives are. In the movie Life of Brian Monty Python elaborates on how everyone complained about the Roman empire giving them all their public services. An estimated 1,700 international conglomerates are running the world economy and here in the US we sometimes refer to our government as McDonalds or a bank. That kind of money takes on a life of its own which is something people often don't appreciate fully, but its true, all roads lead to Rome.
I'd ask for more Russians to be putin the Ukraine.
Putin stopped the economic collapse that happened during the Yeltsin years. Now Russia has regained that dramatic fall. And he has annexed parts of Georgia and Ukraine and stopped the NATO enlargement. Many genuinely support that in Russia. Now the economic difficulties Putin can blame on the West. (While likely the reason is the fall in oil prices)
No this is wrong. Most of the intelligentsia in Russia supports Putin. You're making a terrible mistake in thinking that Leftist ideals happen to be the ideals of other peoples. Putin has tremendous popularity amongst Russians. You presuppose, without explanation, that people would prefer democracy, and would aspire for diversity, globalization and so forth. But this is not true. Many - in fact MOST people would not support such ideals. If you look in history you will see that great nations were always built by great men (or women) - but it was the individual that made things possible. What is seen as acceptable and worthy in Western society in modern times is absolutely rotten if we are to look at it historically. Take Obama - the guy just goofs around - he is a clown compared to someone like Putin. And yet people think Obama is a great leader.... That guy who goes around joking and laughing about this and that, that guy is a great leader. The guy who Trump and folks like him can MOCK and HUMILIATE on TV, that guy apparently is a great leader according to many in the West today. The fact is that a great leader is judged by one criteria only: does he get the job done, and is he respected by people under him (meaning do they LISTEN and ACT when he tells them something)? And by that criteria, Obama is nothing.
Look at Alexander the Great - that's a great leader. He alone was great - he alone took a bunch of men and brought done the greatest empire of his times. Could Alexander have done that if he was like Obama? No chance in fucking hell. His own people would have laughed at him. They wouldn't have listened. They would have disobeyed. A true leader gets his people to follow him, and go to their deaths to achieve the goal at hand if they have to. A true leader doesn't care about conventions - a true leader purposefully breaks them - because he must. He cannot be judged to be a mere mortal, because no one follows a mere mortal - if you are like the average person, if you have the same desires and the same habits as the common folk, then you cannot lead. Yes, people do want their leaders to be just. But justice is compatible with greatness.
Putin is not a great leader, but he's much better than Obama or pretty much any other modern Western leader. The West has lost its path, especially Europe. Europe used to be the greatest continent on Earth - the greatest geniuses, the greatest conquerors, the greatest heroes - they used to be from here. We used to be great - today we're running just on the inertia of our past greatness. Europe has a golden present, and a pitch black future at the moment - because we have handed ourselves over the the slave morality of the Left. We've made a God of money and sex. We're so big about sexual rights and making sure the transexuals have their own bathrooms, and so forth. We're educating our men to be slaves to pussy - to do anything for sex - to have no shame and no honor. Such lack of virtue will never breed greatness. One cannot serve both God and Mammon. Money and sex together have a life of their own it seems.
And by the way - the cheap oil price actually IS the doing of the US who has discovered massive reserves of shale underneath its soils (https://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/article/shale_in_the_united_states.cfm), and is dumping the oil on the market precisely to HAMPER Putin, because the truth is that Putin is winning. If it wasn't for the low oil price, Putin's Russia would have been a far far greater threat today. I mean how can it not? We're sitting here in the West doing nothing. Let's be real now. What the fuck are folks doing? They're spending their time in sloth and laziness, without any focus on making something for their nation. They are not devoting themselves to their civilisations, either in learning (as men like Plato, Aristotle, Schopenhauer, etc. did) or in politics (as Napoleon, Alexander, Caesar, etc. did) or in morality (as the Saints have done), or in business (as a Henry Ford used to do for example). Where the hell is the modern day Einstein? There is none. We're so smart, we have such a great civilisation, and the fucking Renaissance had a higher ratio of genius to population than we do. People today are selfish, they live just for themselves. They live petty lives - their passions are - I don't know - going to Hawaii, traveling the world, shagging their neighbour. That's what their passions are. Greatness cannot be built on such crooked foundations. Of course Russia is beating us. What the fuck are people thinking? They're like Crooked Hillary Clinton - they think they can sit in bed and win. Listen - greatness in this world is achieved by blood and sweat, not by comfort, not by a "nice" life, but by sacrifice, by focus, by vision, by unrelenting drive. And if we don't succeed, then we'll be at the feet of those who do - including Russia and China. We have to wake up for fuck's sake. We've got a lot of work to do. We've got massive amounts of work to do.
Putin is a professional spy and kill many people by his shotgun
If Putin feels the need for a pu then he'll ask for a pu tin to put it in.
Sorry, very bad joke
:-#
Perhaps not the majority of intelligentsia, but some of them don't support. Just remember there were demonstrations against him running again after Medvedev. Russian are, well, just as suspect of their government as some Americans are.
Quoting AgustinoAnd should I make the point that likely Putin is the most wealthiest person in the World? Or at least controlling it, because money is power, also (or especially) in Russia.
And then let's not forget that the East European Countries that did choose the "decaying" West have performed far better than Russia. For example Poland (this graph shows just why Crimeans and East Ukrainians looked to Russia):
And here if 1991 is a benchmark, the Baltics have been successfull:
Is Pussy Riot the minority of the intelligentsia that is against Putin? >:O
Quoting ssu
>:O
Quoting ssu
As I said, Europe has a golden present, and a pitch black future. And the East European countries never CHOSE the decaying West. The decaying West chose them for geopolitical and strategic reasons.
I use Amy as the perfect example of what's wrong with today's progressive culture. And I just love how people get angry about it. Probably because she's a woman, and they have this belief that if you're a woman anything is permitted. And thus I am a sexist, and a misogynist, and a scum :P
>:O
Quoting csalisbury
Is that supposed to be bad? I suppose that so long as you are obsessed about anti-progressive matters, then it's bad. If you are obsessed about getting naked for Clinton, then that's totally fine and admirable...