What is an "evidential import"?
In "The Significance of Self-Fulfilling Science", Lowe (2018, 349) uses the term "evidential import" when discussing different definitions of reflexive predictions:
"[…] Finally, by shifting focus to probability, Kopec’s definition highlights certain methodological issues that escaped his predecessors. In particular, such cases might cause serious problems for those who employ Bayesian or likelihoodist confirmation-theoretic frameworks, given that dissemination of reflexive predictions can change the evidential import of observing their obtainment […]."
What he is saying roughly makes sense to me. However, I struggle to grasp precisely what an "evidential import" is supposed to be.
I'd be very helpful if someone could clarify what "precisely" the term means.
Thank you!
"[…] Finally, by shifting focus to probability, Kopec’s definition highlights certain methodological issues that escaped his predecessors. In particular, such cases might cause serious problems for those who employ Bayesian or likelihoodist confirmation-theoretic frameworks, given that dissemination of reflexive predictions can change the evidential import of observing their obtainment […]."
What he is saying roughly makes sense to me. However, I struggle to grasp precisely what an "evidential import" is supposed to be.
I'd be very helpful if someone could clarify what "precisely" the term means.
Thank you!
Comments (2)
He's basically saying that when we use a theory to make a prediction, and disseminating that prediction has an influence on whether we end up observing it, then observing that disseminated prediction is not as strong an evidence for the theory than if we observe a prediction whose dissemination had no influence on its subsequent observation.
(a self-fulfilling prophecy is an example of a reflexive prediction, disseminating the prophecy ends up making it happen)