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What is Climate Change?

Mikie March 26, 2022 at 00:14 8950 views 91 comments
In explaining climate change, for people who are truly interested in learning about it, I always like to start with an easy experiment: you can take two glass containers -- one with room air and one with more CO2 added, and put it in the sun, seeing which one heats up the fastest. Easy, simple. In fact, Eunice Foote did exactly this experiment in 1856:

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Then we can ask: How much CO2 is in our atmosphere? Since trees take in CO2 and most living organisms let off CO2, there's always fluctuations. So the next thing would be to look at the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, measured all over the Earth -- starting in the Mauna Loa Volcanic Observatory in 1958 and expanding from there.

What do we see? Concentrations go up and down a little, naturally, every year, because there are more leaves on trees in summer in the Northern Hemisphere than in winter. Yet the average rises every year, leading to the famous Keeling Curve:

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That's just from 1958 to the present. When you look at the concentrations over the last 800 thousand years, an even more interesting trend emerges:

https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of-carbon-dioxide/

That's 412 parts per million currently, and the last highest level was about 350 thousand years ago at 300 ppm, before modern humans were even around.

So we know (1) that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and (2) that there is a lot more CO2 in the atmosphere now than in the last 800,000 years.

One would think the planet would be warming, giving these two facts. So now we'd have to look to see how temperatures have fluctuated over time, and if increases in temperature correlates in any way with increases in CO2. Is there a correlation?

Turns out there is.

Over 100 years:

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And over 800 thousand years:

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Then the question becomes: why is this happening? Where is all of this extra CO2 coming from -- and in such a relatively short period of time?

The answer to that question is because of human activity, especially since the industrial revolution. As world population increases, and more trees are cut down (for fuel, houses, and to make room for raising livestock), there is less of a carbon "sponge."

But on top of this, we're also burning things. Burning wood puts CO2 into the atmosphere. Cows and other livestock also release a lot of methane, another greenhouse gas.

But of course it's not only wood and not only livestock. The main culprit, it turns out -- and why the industrial revolution was mentioned -- is fossil fuel: coal, oil, and natural gas. These are carbon-dense objects, and when burned release a huge amount of CO2. Multiply this burning by an increasing population, year after year for over 150 years, and it becomes very clear where the excess CO2 is coming from.

So human activity is the driver of rapid global warming.

Lastly, so what? What's the big deal about increasing the global temperature by just a few degrees?

I think the answer to this is obvious once you realize how only a few fractions of a degrees has large effects over time, which we're already beginning to see. The melting of the ice caps, sea level rise, an increase in draughts and wildfires -- all happening before our eyes, as every year we break more heat records.

In my opinion, I think it's undeniable that this is the issue of our time and those of us who aren't in denial should at least put it in their top 3 political priorities and act accordingly.

[hide]Borrowed from a prior post of mine a few months back. [/hide]

Comments (91)

frank March 26, 2022 at 00:24 #673546
Look who's been studying a little climatology. :victory:
EugeneW March 26, 2022 at 00:26 #673547
Quoting Xtrix
In my opinion, I think it's undeniable that this is the issue of our time and those of us who aren't in denial should at least put it in their top 3 political priorities and act accordingly


You really think the situation improves? Last years saw the highest emission, if I recall correctly. Our only hope is fusion, or solar energy and hydrogen to make the energy portable. Or even better, a drastic reduction of economical activity. Try that telling capitalists though...
Mikie March 26, 2022 at 00:29 #673548
Quoting EugeneW
You really think the situation improves?


I have no idea. I do know that if people resign themselves to defeatism, it's guaranteed nothing will improve.
ChatteringMonkey March 26, 2022 at 00:58 #673553
Quoting Xtrix
In my opinion, I think it's undeniable that this is the issue of our time and those of us who aren't in denial should at least put it in their top 3 political priorities and act accordingly.


It is the issue of our time, but what should be done about it is not that clear. 'Act accordingly' sounds a bit like the solution automatically follows from the problem.

Without trying to be exhaustive about it, part of the problem is that energy is life, and fossil fuels are the most dense, convenient energy-source we have, and also the basis on which our entire globalised system is built.

Anyway, i'm not suggesting that we shouldn't do anything about it, just that exactly what is the real question here.
magritte March 26, 2022 at 01:19 #673556
Quoting Xtrix
And over 800 thousand years:
graph-co2-temp-nasa.gif?ssl=1


I agree with the urgency of the environmentalist argument, but in these illustrations ancient historical data might not represent the same cause and effect relationship as the recent and post-industrial age data. ??

For ancient data rising global temperatures appear to cause rise in CO2. For the past 150 years or so, cause and effect seem to have reversed so that CO2 is causing rising global temperatures. To see this, one could try to overlap the red and blue charts or just use a ruler to connect corresponding top chart and bottom chart peaks and valleys, it looks to me like the ancient red temperature chart is leading the blue CO2 chart. But I could well be all wrong.
jgill March 26, 2022 at 04:28 #673615
Nevertheless, if Europe is denied fossil fuel products from Russia, the US must reopen drilling and exploration in order to reach the point of human extinction due to all that CO2 in a reasonable time.

The clock's ticking.
Agent Smith March 26, 2022 at 06:46 #673636
What I find puzzling is that our lungs, or more generally our respiratory system, seems to have evolved to operate at even higher concentrations of [math]CO_2[/math] (something known as functional reserve) than the normal (approx. 0.03% - 0.04%), assuming climatologists are right in that [math]CO_2[/math] concentrations have increased due to fossil fuels.

We can smoke, heavily, chain-smoke in fact. The average [math]CO_2[/math] blood levels are higher in smokers than non-smokers, and we (I'm a chain-smoker) are none the worse than our non-smoking brethren. Did mother nature anticipate global warming, does Gaia know humans in and out?

EugeneW March 26, 2022 at 08:01 #673645
Reply to magritte

If you put the blue and red chart on top of each other it's not quite clear what the causal relation is between the temperature and the CO2 levels. But what else can cause temperature change? There seems to be a periodic natural variation. Not sure if it's truly periodic. What's sure, is the short time in which temperature has occurred is specific for modern man age. Like the shape of the increase in time. And it's sure there are two effects. T-rise because of CO2 rise and CO2 rise because of T-rise.
magritte March 26, 2022 at 11:11 #673721
Reply to EugeneW

We tend to think of cause-effect as a simple and direct relation tied together by some unseen underlying commonality. Like when a billiard ball hits another on a smooth surface we have to invent momentum to explain what happens. Climate has many outside environmental causes most of which are complex on their own. Astronomical events like the precession of Earth's axis cause secondary causes, like ice caps, air and ocean currents, vegetation and bacterial life.
EugeneW March 26, 2022 at 11:25 #673728
Quoting magritte
Astronomical events like the precession of Earth's axis cause secondary causes, like ice caps, air and ocean currents, vegetation and bacterial life.


Indeed. The natural processes are complicated. Forks of causation, feed back, chaos, strongly linked and weakly linked processes influencing one another. Its impossible to get the full picture. The atmosphere and surface of the Earth influence one another quite actively. It's no flat surface and its in motion and full of life.

How would the Earth look if no humans stepped on the stage long ago? They have made quite some impression on nature! Fast and furious. Like that Blitzkrieg.
bert1 March 26, 2022 at 12:28 #673759
Reply to Xtrix That's a really clear explanation. I don't have the knowledge to know if you've got it right or not, but it's very nicely set out.
EugeneW March 26, 2022 at 12:48 #673768
More important, what to do about it?
unenlightened March 26, 2022 at 15:09 #673840
Quoting EugeneW
More important, what to do about it?


Carbon fibre and non-biodegradable plastics to replace steel and aluminium wherever possible, ie cars planes etc.

Insulate buildings until they are energy neutral. Less steel, glass, concrete, brick, and tile for new build, more wood, plastic, slate, stone, mud, straw, wool, etc.

Get busy with the obvious power sources, tidal, wind, geothermal and heat pumps for heating, solar, etc.

Reduce meat consumption and plant trees and peat bogs as appropriate. reduce fertiliser use by rebuilding soil fertility.

Just slow the fuck down a bit; travel by internet more and aeroplane less. More public transport and bicycles, less cars and private jets. More communal facilities in general - we don't need a washing machine each, we can share.

Less rocket science, more brain surgery.
EugeneW March 26, 2022 at 15:18 #673844
Quoting unenlightened
we don't need a washing machine each, we can share.


That's my idea too. We can do the same for many things. And indeed, reducing the speed, intensity, of the economic machine. A sober material lifestyle re-establishes contact with our nature.
EugeneW March 26, 2022 at 15:21 #673845
Quoting unenlightened
Less rocket science, more brain surgery.


:lol:
unenlightened April 22, 2022 at 20:30 #684831
https://grist.org/science/alaska-permafrost-thawing-ice-climate-change/?fbclid=IwAR2iXitJ4isMW8RU4sNhj8Uzy9Dq76EyUZ8oTIlmFjI8QZYTyWFWP338f7s
jgill April 22, 2022 at 21:54 #684847
The world is in too much chaos right now to get anything of substance done about climate change. Best to start adapting. For example, the Colorado river supplies water to about 65 million people downstream. And predictions indicate less and less flow. Arizona is already discussing piping in ocean water and desalinizing it. What will Las Vegas do? Desalinization on a large scale takes lots of energy, and hydroelectric is forecast to diminish.
SpaceDweller April 23, 2022 at 03:31 #684890
I think major obstacle to finding a solution for climate change is the need for sense of security.

Every country in the world seeks the sense of security, militarily, economically etc. this results is less effort and space for climate change resolutions.

For example if China or the US is to limit CO2 emissions it will cost them a lot economically, but both would rather spend these resources on increasing military budget because there are tensions and lack of sense of safety.
BC April 23, 2022 at 04:36 #684900
Quoting EugeneW
Our only hope is fusion, or solar energy and hydrogen to make the energy portable. Or even better, a drastic reduction of economical activity. Try that telling capitalists though...


You are probably right that "a drastic reduction if economic activity" (which pretty much covers everything) is probably the only possible plan that could make a difference. All other plans involve "too much magic".

It isn't only the capitalists who will resist. A sharp, abrupt reduction in economic activity (including reduced food production) means immediate (rather than delayed) disaster. Reduced economic activity means a severe and prolonged depression--no work, no income, dwindling resources across the board, food shortages and hunger, then starvation. Grim.

Perhaps we could maintain some food production and distribution by marshaling the populations of nations to raise food. To the Fields! Human hand labor has a lower carbon foot print than your typical John Deere. If that were to work (and we didn't have a revolution sparked by angry office workers required to hoe long rows of beans) we might avoid starvation. But much less grain would be produced. Rice, wheat, corn, millet, and so on can be grown and harvested in smaller fields, but not in the huge quantities now produced.

Some small-scale manufacturing will be needed too, in all sorts of industries, but nothing like the present.

This dramatically scaled down economic activity would still leave room for the "reproduction of society", but a simpler poorer society, one more locally centered.

What are the chances of a peaceful reduction in the economic activity of the world?

Poor.
BC April 23, 2022 at 04:51 #684902
What does "Too Much Magic" mean? In William Howard Kunstler's view, ""Magic" is all the high-end technology (that may or may not exist) that somehow manages to replace oil, gas, and coal and produces abundant food, fiber, and building materials WITHOUT also producing a lot of carbon and various other contaminants.

"Magic" assumes that we can have it all without the CO2, methane, and so on. Somehow we will be able to feed 8 billion people without heavy farm machinery, distribute food across the world without heavy shipping, and house and clothe everyone without using vast raw material and growing megatons of cotton. Somehow there will be dry land and clean water for everyone. Somehow it won't be too hot and humid (the wet bulb temperature) for people to work outside.

Fossil fuel is vital, critical, and central to the industrialization that produces the world we live in. There are no practical substitutes for fossil fuel. Wind, solar, wave energy, tidal energy, heat pumps, geo-energy, and so on ALL require the existing industrial base. Then there is the feedstock that coal, oil and gas provide. Heat pumps require mines, smelting, factories and electricity, for instance. Ditto for all the rest.

Are we totally screwed?

We may be. We will try to carry on, none the less, whatever happens, until...
unenlightened April 23, 2022 at 06:53 #684922
Alaska and Siberia are going to become more inhabitable in principle -those parts that are above the flood line. but expect migration from the tropics.

An Englishman's home is his castle; and everyone else's home is his bailiwick. Unfortunately, this only makes sense when there is only one Englishman. These days, everyone thinks they're the Englishman. This is the problem that has to be solved before we can effectively deal with climate change. It is a psychological problem. The solution to climate change is straight forward, but we are busy keeping out the migrants and fighting wars against the baddies. until that mindset changes, we are indeed screwed so tight the thread is stripped.
Isaac April 23, 2022 at 07:11 #684925
Quoting unenlightened
These days, everyone thinks they're the Englishman. This is the problem that has to be solved before we can effectively deal with climate change. It is a psychological problem.


Then we're faced with the preceding problem of how to get that to change.

At least with climate change itself there's only two solutions (change the atmosphere, or change what we're pumping into it). The trouble with psychological problems is that every man and his dog has a theory about how to fix them (with a suspicious majority involving a return to the morality of the popular youth movements of their respective teenage years - also the time in their lives when they would have felt most solidarity and most confidence in their group identity - but that's just another psychological theory - they really are two a penny).
unenlightened April 23, 2022 at 07:26 #684927
Quoting Isaac
The trouble with psychological problems is that every man and his dog has a theory about how to fix them


Every Englishman and his dog has a theory about how to solve everyone else's psychological problems, but no clue at all how to solve their own. I'm always trying to change your mind and keep mine the same. This is the problem.
Isaac April 23, 2022 at 07:47 #684937
Quoting unenlightened
Every Englishman and his dog has a theory about how to solve everyone else's psychological problems, but no clue at all how to solve their own. I'm always trying to change your mind and keep mine the same. This is the problem.


You think? There seem to be an awfully large number of self-help books on the shelves... Aren't the avid readers of such beacons of enlightenment as "12 Rules for Life", or "Can't Hurt Me: Master Your Mind and Defy the Odds", or the delightfully titled "Unf*ck Yourself", desperately trying to, to use the technical terminology, 'unf*ck themselves'? These books seem very popular and they don't seem to be about changing other people's minds, but rather the reader changing their own.
unenlightened April 23, 2022 at 12:50 #685036
Quoting Isaac
There seem to be an awfully large number of self-help books on the shelves...


Yup. All written without exception for the other chap, by people who think to have no further need to unfuck themselves.

Quoting Isaac
they don't seem to be about changing other people's minds, but rather the reader changing their own.

Books written to change the readers' minds are exactly authors' theories about how to change other people's minds. Who has a theory about how to change their own mind? It would be superfluous, would it not?
stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 13:05 #685045
Reply to Xtrix Would you agree that not knowing what is the optimal temperature or what is the optimal co2 level all other speculations are futile. You just took as a dogma that "bad weather is always your fault and the solution to it is adopting global communism by Monday". Again, it's delusional activism, not science. ;)
Isaac April 23, 2022 at 13:06 #685048
Quoting unenlightened
All written without exception for the other chap, by people who think to have no further need to unfuck themselves.


Oh, I see. A minority though, no? I mean the sorts of people who write those books are very much the smaller group compared to the sorts of people who read them. So I'm still not quite seeing how the self-righteousness of the self-help author can be to blame for climate change, there can't be more than a few hundred of them (though I admit sometimes it seems like they're everywhere).

Quoting unenlightened
Books written to change the readers' minds are exactly authors' theories about how to change other people's minds.


Again, seems you're pointing to a minority (the ones who write the books, as opposed to read them - not to mention the conjunction who do both). What is it that links this minority to issues like climate change?

Quoting unenlightened
Who has a theory about how to change their own mind? It would be superfluous, would it not?


Not superfluous so much as already enacted. We have theories about how to change our own minds all the time, we just mostly have them quietly. If I'm expecting my cup to be on the table but see no cup when I look, I have to change my mind about what happened to my cup. I probably wouldn't post it on the internet though.
Mikie April 23, 2022 at 13:27 #685056
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Would you agree that not knowing what is the optimal temperature or what is the optimal co2 level all other speculations are futile.


Would I agree with the random musings of an Internet troll with no understanding whatever of climatology? That’s an easy “no.”

stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 13:40 #685059
Quoting Xtrix
Would I agree with the random musings of an Internet troll with no understanding whatever of climatology? That’s an easy “no.”


You are welcome to believe whatever religion / cult / ideology you want, just be honest with yourself and don't call it science. ;)
Mikie April 23, 2022 at 13:42 #685061
Reply to stoicHoneyBadger

It is science. Your own ramblings notwithstanding. Feel free to take your Republican talking points elsewhere.

“Optimal CO2 level.” :lol:
stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 13:50 #685062
Quoting Xtrix
It is science. Your own ramblings notwithstanding. Feel free to take your Republican talking points elsewhere.

“Optimal CO2 level.” :lol:


If it is science, can you verify or falsify it? can you explain how the scientific method was applied to come to this conclusion?

do you have a problem with republicans?
Haglund April 23, 2022 at 13:52 #685064
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
You are welcome to believe whatever religion / cult / ideology you want, just be honest with yourself and don't call it science


What's non-scientific about it? Seems pretty convincing to me. You gotta admit that capitalism is fucking up the planet. Which might not be evil per se, but is quite disturbing to be honest.
Haglund April 23, 2022 at 13:53 #685065
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
If it is science, can you verify or falsify it?


That's no criterion for being scientific.
stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 13:57 #685066
Reply to Haglund You might read about the scientific method ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method ), about Popper’s falsifiability criteria, etc.

Capitalism has certainly fucked some things up, like putting sugars and seed oils into food. But blaming all your troubles on it and assuming communism would do better might not be a reasonable way to go.
Haglund April 23, 2022 at 14:04 #685073
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
You might read about the scientific method ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method ), about Popper’s falsifiability criteria, etc.


Sir pimpelPopper was a frustrated scientist, who tried to make science dance on the marchmusic of his false method.

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Capitalism has certainly fucked some things up, like putting sugars and seed oils into food. But blaming all your troubles on it and assuming communism would do better might not be a reasonable way to go.


Where I claim to be a communist?
Mikie April 23, 2022 at 14:11 #685076
Reply to Haglund

Don’t bother with trolls. Climate deniers don’t know about science or care about science. They’re as interested in “science” as creationists are.

50 years worth of research, overwhelming evidence (of which I give a sample in the OP), 99% consensus, etc — all irrelevant to those who follow Trump’s lead. It shows up in the stupid questions, for example about “optimal CO2” and so forth. Wow! They’ve cracked the case! Single handedly! All from spending 15 minutes on Wikipedia. Imagine the level of ego? It’s impressive.

And isn’t it funny how science ignoramuses ALWAYS point to Popper? It’s almost as if that’s the only philosophy of science they’ve ever heard about. :chin:

stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 14:20 #685086
Reply to Xtrix Problem is that people always try to twist the reality to fit their narrative and than try to give it credibility by calling it science. Even in such obvious un-scientific concepts a men turning into women by wishing for it to be so.

It all boils down to the fact that the idea of a minuscule ~1 degree warming causing some global catastrophe does not sound reasonable.

We have been promised sea levels raising, extreme weather events, etc. for decades, yet none of that has materialized. Is any nation underwater, as promised from the UN tribune 20 years ago?

If nothing happens in 5 years, 10 or 20 , when will you finally say "ok, guess it was a bit exaggerated"?
Mikie April 23, 2022 at 14:28 #685091
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
We have been promised sea levels raising, extreme weather events, etc. for decades, yet none of that has materialized.


Actually, it has. Sea level has risen, and extreme weather events happen every year — breaking records. Not to mention average global temperatures are the hottest year after year. But I know that means nothing for those who don’t want to believe it.

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
It all boils down to the fact that the idea of a minuscule ~1 degree warming causing some global catastrophe does not sound reasonable.


That’s because you don’t have a clue about the Earth’s climate.

Nevermind. It sounds unreasonable to you, so I guess that settles it. What are all those stupid scientists who’ve dedicated their entire lives to understanding the earth talking about? Idiots!

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
If nothing happens in 5 years, 10 or 20


We don’t have to wait— they’re already here, and have been visible now for about a decade. Which is exactly what was predicted back in the 1980s. Believe it or not, there’s a lot of information about this — all free. Or you can talk to a climatologist, and they’ll explain it to you.

Or you can go on believing you know more than them because you spent 5 minutes thinking about it and have judged it to be “unreasonable.” Your call.

stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 14:41 #685095
Quoting Xtrix
Actually, it has. Sea level has risen, and extreme weather events happen every year — breaking records. Not to mention average global temperatures are the hottest year after year. But I know that means nothing for those who don’t want to believe it.


How much has it risen? Is some city underwater? What extreme events has it caused? I can say the same way, if you want to see climate change, you will find it everywhere and than use it as a confirmation.

Quoting Xtrix
That’s because you don’t have a clue about the Earth’s climate.
Nevermind. It sounds unreasonable to you, so I guess that settles it. What are all those stupid scientists who’ve dedicated their entire lives to understanding the earth talking about? Idiots!


So you blindly trust some group of people, who claim to know something you can't verify? Why not trust priests or imams or UFO hunters?

Quoting Xtrix
Or you can talk to a climatologist, and they’ll explain it to you.


In a same way you can talk to a liberal gender studies major and xzer will kindly explain you that there are 128 genders, yet it still does not make it reasonable or trustworthy.
stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 14:52 #685097
Quoting Xtrix
Sea level has risen, and extreme weather events happen every year


I just checked randomly the levels at KeyWest, FL. Here is the graph, I can not see any sharp increase in it, can you?
The current rate it about 2.5mm per year. The highest point of KeyWest is 5.5m , so if my math is right, it will take just 2200 years for them to go under water.

User image

Can you provide me with a counter example?
stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 14:57 #685098
Now let's do San Francisco:

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On average 1.75mm per year. I don't see any sharp increases, but ok, let's double that for the sake of the argument. So 3.5mm per year, elevation of SF is 16m , so at this rate it will still take like 4.5K years.
stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 15:00 #685099
Let's also do Marseille, France. 1mm per year, elevation 36m. Fully gone in just 36.000 years! OMG!

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Mikie April 23, 2022 at 15:05 #685101
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
So you blindly trust some group of people, who claim to know something you can't verify?


No, it’s a group of experts with overwhelming evidence that can be verified by anyone who wants to know about it. They can explain it to me and answer any questions I have about it. This is typical of science.

Or we can walk into a physics department and say “quantum mechanics seems unreasonable to me” and leave it at that.

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
gender studies


Someone’s been watching a lot of Fox News I see.

I’m not interested in your therapy.

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
sharp increase


Who said it would be a sharp increase? You notice that sea level has indeed risen. Your claims about sharp increases or cities being under water are your own fabrications. That’s not what’s being claimed. There are areas in the world — like the Maldives and areas of Bangladesh where sea rise already is causing real problems. But no one is saying the seas will consume New York overnight. No one.

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
at this rate


Yeah…great job. So I guess that settles it! You’ve singlehandedly refuted all of climate science! Somehow they missed your extraordinary insight! Good work!


Mikie April 23, 2022 at 15:08 #685103
For anyone serious about learning about sea level rise:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level
stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 15:12 #685104
Quoting Xtrix
For anyone serious about learning about sea level rise:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level


Aha, so it went from 1.4mm to 3.6mm , therefor in one case Marseille would be under water in 25k years, but in the other in just 10k years. Yeap, that a real emergency! :D
stoicHoneyBadger April 23, 2022 at 15:14 #685105
Quoting Xtrix
Yeah…great job. So I guess that settles it! You’ve singlehandedly refuted all of climate science! Somehow they missed your extraordinary insight! Good work!


You are looking at them like some God-send enlightened gurus, I see them just as another breed of quacks, similar to astrologers, homeopath, faith healers, taro card readers etc.

I don't need to read every book on horoscopes to know it is quackery.
Mikie April 23, 2022 at 22:01 #685303
Haglund April 23, 2022 at 23:31 #685348
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
You are looking at them like some God-send enlightened gurus, I see them just as another breed of quacks, similar to astrologers, homeopath, faith healers, taro card readers etc.

I don't need to read every book on horoscopes to know it is quackery.


Seems pretty clear though that the planet has never been so fucked up as in recent times. Even the big asteroid that once hit had a mild effect in comparison.
Haglund April 23, 2022 at 23:35 #685350
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Aha, so it went from 1.4mm to 3.6mm , therefor in one case Marseille would be under water in 25k years, but in the other in just 10k years. Yeap, that a real emergency! :D


The real emergency, though floods and fires are serious, lies not in temperature change per se. It's the short time in which it happens that matters. And in comparison with human impact on nature, even this looks pale and bleak.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 05:54 #685432
Quoting Haglund
's the short time in which it happens that matters.


Notice how you are moving the goalposts. Ok, temperature changes some 10 degrees every day/night cycle. It changes 50 degrees during the year. Having a 20 degree difference between average temperatures withing two sequential years is not unusual. Yet having a 1 degree increase in 30 years is the end of the world? Does that sound reasonable?

Quoting Haglund
And in comparison with human impact on nature, even this looks pale and bleak.


See goalpost moved again. What exactly is this impact? Sahara is greening because of the release of trapped co2 by human. In cities situation is certainly way better than it was 150 years ago, when everything was covered with soot.

I think you just hate people as such and are trying to make up reasons for why we are bad.
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 10:32 #685476
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Notice how you are moving the goalposts. Ok, temperature changes some 10 degrees every day/night cycle. It changes 50 degrees during the year. Having a 20 degree difference between average temperatures withing two sequential years is not unusual. Yet having a 1 degree increase in 30 years is the end of the world? Does that sound reasonable?


Okay, analysis time. The final one! Now it's you who moves the goal posts. You introduce whole new goalposts even. The temperature changes you refer to, the daily or seasonal variations, are not what gives the danger. The goalposts we talk about are about the change in the average temperature. This change in average temperature (the energy contained in the whole atmosphere) has occurred before in history, even in shorter time, but this lasted a short time, so nature had not really suffered because if it. The temperature change induced by man is short term and lasting. There is no return to normal.

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
See goalpost moved again. What exactly is this impact? Sahara is greening because of the release of trapped co2 by human. In cities situation is certainly way better than it was 150 years ago, when everything was covered with soot


No goalposts moved here. I placed the problem next to another problem: human intervention in nature in general. So nit only on the atmosphere. Again, I didn't change the posts, I put two larger and thicker ones around them. If you can't see the impact and consequences than yiu wear some damned big blinkers.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 10:43 #685479
Quoting Haglund
The temperature change induced by man is short term and lasting. There is no return to normal.


What is normal? I mean the idea that if temperature fluctuates tens of degrees withing a few years is not a problem, if the same happens over thousands of years it's ok, too. Yet if a 10 times smaller fluctuation happens within decades - global catastrophe! It does not sound very logical to me, nor is it testable in an experiment. Moreover, those "experts" are known to be wrong / grossly exaggerating many times before, so seems like quackery.
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 10:52 #685481
Reply to stoicHoneyBadger

There is no fluctuation we induce. We induce a permanent increase (in short time) without fluctuating back. That's not natural. Not normal.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 11:01 #685485
Quoting Haglund
There is no fluctuation we induce. We induce a permanent increase (in short time) without fluctuating back. That's not natural. Not normal.


ok, but the question still is whether it is a small pleasantry or a global catastrophe. I don't see any tangible evidence to suggest a catastrophe.
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 11:10 #685487
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
ok, but the question still is whether it is a small pleasantry or a global catastrophe. I don't see any tangible evidence to suggest a catastrophe.


In general: the shorter a change takes the bigger the consequence. Birth, lightning, a meteor crashing on Earth, etc. So the transgression in short time to a higher temperature will show. There is just more energy injected into the atmosphere. And the energy increases fast. You might call 1 degree rise in 10 years not much but it's huge. And it stays. A natural balance is disrupted. Chaotic effects. Forrest fires and floods happen quite regularly lately.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 11:14 #685489
Quoting Haglund
Chaotic effects. Forrest fires and floods happen quite regularly lately.


War! Pestilence! Famine! Death! and also locusts everywhere! I mean it is a doomsday cult prophecy, not a credible scientific theory. What if forest fires are caused by its mismanagement?
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 11:21 #685493
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
War! Pestilence! Famine!


Not sure what these have to do with the atmosphere. Poisined air maybe?

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
not a credible scientific theory. What if forest fires are caused by its mismanagement?


It's not a theory. There are just more fires and floods everywhere. For a fact. And you would expect management to have improved.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 11:44 #685496
Quoting Haglund
It's not a theory. There are just more fires and floods everywhere. For a fact. And you would expect management to have improved.


And how do you know it is caused by a 1 degree temp. increase? If we measure it in the number of death, the picture is not so bleak.

User image
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 11:53 #685499
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
And how do you know it is caused by a 1 degree temp. increase?


How else?

The article is about catastophes...And the number of deaths would be lower without temperature increase by man.
Agent Smith April 24, 2022 at 12:08 #685501
Climate change, if a scientific hypothesis, can't be, for that very fact, the only game in town. Are there other hypotheses that are...well...inelegant, too complex, etc.?
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 12:47 #685509
Quoting Haglund
And the number of deaths would be lower without temperature increase by man.


So in the graph we already see a sharp decline in death, yet without a 1 degree temp increase the decline would be even sharper? :grin: so, unfalsifiable.

Quoting Agent Smith
climate change, if a scientific hypothesis, can't be, for that very fact, the only game in town. Are there other hypotheses that are...well...inelegant, too complex, etc.?


How's about "climate is always changing and a 1 degree increase is positive, yet so minuscule that there's really nothing to talk about".
Agent Smith April 24, 2022 at 13:13 #685515
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
How's about "climate is always changing and a 1 degree increase is positive, yet so minuscule that there's really nothing to talk about".


You mean to say all this climate emergency hullabaloo is much ado about nothing? I would've loved to agree, but then all those papers, reports & seminars; no smoke without fire, a grain or two of truth, no?

Too, there's a thread on chaos theory and last I checked it had very much to do with the weather! Does chaos not extend to climate? :chin: Oh, I completely forgot, there are patterns in chaos. I could be wrong though; do lemme know if I am.

Haglund April 24, 2022 at 13:17 #685519
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
So in the graph we already see a sharp decline in death, yet without a 1 degree temp increase the decline would be even sharper? :grin:


Yes. If man wouldn't have fucked up the atmosphere, there would have been less deaths. Because of the fires and floods it created wouldn't have happened then.



stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 13:22 #685524
Quoting Agent Smith
You mean to say all this climate emergency hullabaloo is much ado about nothing?


Yes.
Journalists are getting clicks on scary titles. Politicians get votes from scared people. Green energy shills are getting government payouts. Celebrities get to fly around in private jets, telling people how they should live. Even Austin the weirdo, who lives in his mom's basement, can walk around with a placard and feel like he is saving the earth.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 13:23 #685526
Quoting Haglund
Yes. If man wouldn't have fucked up the atmosphere, there would have been less deaths. Because of the fires and floods it created wouldn't have happened then.


sounds as unreasonable as "if people would have prayed more to God, there would have been less deaths." :D
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 13:27 #685529
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
sounds as unreasonable as "if people would have prayed more to God, there would have been less deaths."


If instead of fucking up the planet they had prayed, this would be the case indeed! :grin:


Anyone denying the unbalanced, irreversible, definitive, relentless imprint on nature caused by man is in denial.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 13:33 #685531
Quoting Haglund
If instead of fucking up the planet they had prayed, this would be the case indeed! :grin:
Anyone denying the unbalanced, irreversible, definitive, relentless imprint on nature caused by man is in denial.


Aren't men also part of the same nature?
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 13:45 #685539
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Notice how you are moving the goalposts. Ok, temperature changes some 10 degrees every day/night cycle. It changes 50 degrees during the year. Having a 20 degree difference between average temperatures withing two sequential years is not unusual. Yet having a 1 degree increase in 30 years is the end of the world? Does that sound reasonable?


Translation: How can 1 degree (such a small number) be such a BIG deal (not a small number)?

It took 50 years and thousands of scientists, and now finally the breakthrough insight we’ve all overlooked — pointed out by a guy on the Internet.

No need to learn about the subject.

Let me try: quantum mechanics seems spooky and unreasonable. How do we know what happens at small levels? Has anyone seen these things?

Bam. Refuted. And don’t tell me to read about it — I don’t need to read about things that are so OBVIOUSLY ridiculous. Quantum mechanics…climate change…electromagnetism…all on par with horoscopes and unicorns.

Agent Smith April 24, 2022 at 13:49 #685542
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Yes.
Journalists are getting clicks on scary titles. Politicians get votes from scared people. Green energy shills are getting government payouts. Celebrities get to fly around in private jets, telling people how they should live. Even Austin the weirdo, who lives in his mom's basement, can walk around with a placard and feel like he is saving the earth.


:lol: One surefire way of convincing us that there's truth in these climate change claims is to make a prediction and see if it comes true. Einstein did it with his theory of relativity - remember the solar eclipse of 1919.
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 13:51 #685543
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Journalists are getting clicks on scary titles. Politicians get votes from scared people. Green energy shills are getting government payouts. Celebrities get to fly around in private jets, telling people how they should live. Even Austin the weirdo, who lives in his mom's basement, can walk around with a placard and feel like he is saving the earth.


Yes— it’s all a big hoax. Overblown. Thankfully we have experts on here like up to lead us down the right path with your intuitions. “small number no make big effect.”

Brilliant.

For some real reporting on why climate deniers like this troll even exist, and repeat the stupid bullshit they’re told, see the latest Frontline piece. No reading involved— so that should help. Big oil has been spreading misinformation for decades.



stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 13:53 #685544
Quoting Xtrix
Quantum mechanics…climate change…electromagnetism…all on par with horoscopes and unicorns.


The thing you don't want to grasp here is the ability to verify a theory in an experiment.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 13:54 #685545
Quoting Agent Smith
One surefire way of convincing us that there's truth in these climate change claims is to make a prediction and see if it comes true. Einstein did it with his theory of relativity - remember the solar eclipse of 1919.


Yeap. And so far all the "we have 3 years left!" predictions pretty much have failed.
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 13:55 #685546
Reply to Agent Smith

And predictions have been spot on. Despite those who repeat denial propaganda want to claim.

https://amp.onlineathens.com/amp/2014160007

stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 13:59 #685547
Quoting Xtrix
And predictions have been spot on. Despite those who repeat denial propaganda want to claim.

https://amp.onlineathens.com/amp/2014160007


Ask and astrologer if his predictions are accurate and I have no doubt he will show you a few that actually came true. If you want a scientific approach, look for those that failed.
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 14:00 #685548
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
The thing you don't want to grasp here is the ability to verify a theory in an experiment.


Climate change is a fact, not a “theory” (a term you don’t understand).

There’s a mountain of evidence that supports the idea that the rate of change is outside natural variability. The spike in global average temperature is the result of the industrial Revolution — burning fossil fuels, increasing deforestation through agricultural practices, etc.

There’s a thing called the Internet where you can LEARN about this stuff.

Or continue on being a buffoon. Works either way for me.

stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 14:03 #685550
Reply to Xtrix

Since 1992, the global sea level has risen on average 2.9 millimeters a year. That’s a total of 78.3 millimeters, according to NOAA.

Penn State University meteorologist Michael Mann argued that we underestimated the rate of ice sheet collapse, which has "implications for future sea-level rise."


There was a video of this Mann guy talking in front of congress(?), promising Washington DC going underwater in the near future. Somehow it got dialed down to less than 8cm. :D
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 14:03 #685551
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Ask and astrologer if his predictions are accurate and I have no doubt he will show you a few that actually came true. If you want a scientific approach, look for those that failed.


Or, if you want to stay a climate denier like you, just ignore everything that doesn’t fit that belief. That easy. Bam! “Science.”

Don’t worry your little head about it. I know you didn’t read the article — which is why it wasn’t meant for you.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 14:04 #685552
Quoting Xtrix
Climate change is a fact, not a “theory” (a term you don’t understand).

There’s a mountain of evidence that supports the idea that the rate of change is outside natural variability. The spike in global average temperature is the result of the industrial Revolution — burning fossil fuels, increasing deforestation through agricultural practices, etc.

There’s a thing called the Internet where you can LEARN about this stuff.

Or continue on being a buffoon. Works either way for me.


Seems you been learning too much stuff that's not very accurate. Some even manage to learn that men can turn into women by wishing so, on the internet. :D
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 14:06 #685555
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
There was a video of this Mann guy talking in front of congress(?), promising Washington DC going underwater in the near future.


No, that’s just your idiotic claim. A claim repeated from whatever denialist bullshit you’ve gorged yourself on. Which is why you offer no references, no such video, etc.

“Al Gore claimed we’d all be dead by 2020! Hahaha! Fool!”

To climate denying cretins, facts don’t matter. It’s about what “feels” good. That’s all the science they care about.



Mikie April 24, 2022 at 14:09 #685557
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
Seems you been learning too much stuff that's not very accurate.


:rofl:

Oh? Like what, specifically?

I won’t hold my breath.

Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
that men can turn into women


Quite obsessed with that issue, aren’t you. As I said before, I’m not interested in your transphobia.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 14:10 #685558
Reply to Xtrix Bro, if you want to be in a doomsday cult, that's up to you. It's not like I am interested in digging up 30 year or Mann or Gore videos to prove something.
stoicHoneyBadger April 24, 2022 at 14:11 #685559
Quoting Xtrix
Quite obsessed with that issue, aren’t you. As I said before, I’m not interested in your transphobia.


So now biology is called transphopbia? Talk about science denial. :D
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 14:12 #685561
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
It's not like I am interested in digging up 30 year or Mann or Gore videos to prove something.


Yeah, exactly. Because those videos don’t exist. Nor do those idiot claims that you fabricated.

So not just a climate denier and transphobe, but a liar to boot. Nice trifecta.
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 14:13 #685562
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
You mean to say all this climate emergency hullabaloo is much ado about nothing?
— Agent Smith

Yes.


Then you don't understand the impact of man, as the figures show you. Im not assigning any moral on how we should behave. Maybe it oughto happen. But the facts don't lie.
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 14:15 #685564
Quoting stoicHoneyBadger
So now biology is called transphopbia?


No— you repeatedly bringing the topic up is. Pretty obvious, actually.

But nevermind. Continue on with your pet culture war issue.
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 14:20 #685565
Quoting Agent Smith
Too, there's a thread on chaos theory and last I checked it had very much to do with the weather! Does chaos not extend to climate? :chin: Oh, I completely forgot, there are patterns in chaos. I could be wrong though; do lemme know if I am.


Yes. If you change the average T in a shirt time, the natural balance gets distorted. A small change, say 1 degree, leading to less patterns and more chaos.

baker April 24, 2022 at 14:54 #685587
Quoting Xtrix
Climate deniers don’t know about science or care about science.


Two types of deniers with whom it is misguided to talk about the science of man's negative impact on climate:

Those who have an enormous sense of entitlement.
For as long as their sense of entitlement is left intact, they won't change their mind.

The consequent Social Darwinists. To them, life is a struggle for survival, and only the strong survive. They take no issue with this.

To such people, the thought, "The climate situation is dire, we need to do something about it" never occurs, or at least it doesn't seem worth pursuing.
Agent Smith April 24, 2022 at 15:11 #685602
Quoting Haglund
Yes. If you change the average T in a shirt time, the natural balance gets distorted. A small change, say 1 degree, leading to less patterns and more chaos


Chaos, in my humble opinion, as some say it is, is "order undeciphered". That seems to be the crux of chaos theory, oui? The "randomness" is an illusion. Have you seen those colorful pictures of chaos? They don't seem chaotic; mayhaps it's a matter of scale. The quantum world, according to physicists, is one where chance rules, but at our scale, everything's as orderly as troops in formation.
Haglund April 24, 2022 at 15:14 #685605
Quoting Agent Smith
Chaos, in my humble opinion, as some say it is, is "order undeciphered". That seems to be the crux of chaos theory, oui?


Oui, bien sur. But. The beautiful patterns might be disrupted by a small and fast change, like 1 degree uprise in 10 years without falling back.
Agent Smith April 24, 2022 at 15:18 #685611
Quoting Haglund
Oui, bien sur. But. The beautiful patterns might be disrupted by a small and fast change, like 1 degree uprise in 10 years without falling back.


:ok:
Mikie April 24, 2022 at 20:17 #685720