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Ukraine Crisis

Manuel January 25, 2022 at 03:28 76975 views 18084 comments
The situation in Ukraine is becoming more dire by the minute. NATO is implying Russia is planning to invade Ukraine, whereas Russia denies this. Russia claims it will not allow Ukraine to enter NATO, as this would effectively put a hostile military alliance - NATO - right at the borders of Russia.

There's also political maneuvering going around, with the US never wanting a lack of enemies - soon after the disaster in Afghanistan. And Putin is wanting to shift attention away from pretty bad conditions in Russia do to the COVID pandemic and rising prices.

The situation is quite dire and could escalate into something very, very dangerous.

Here are a few links for those interested:

NATO sends reinforcements to Eastern Europe amid Russia tensions
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/24/nato-sends-reinforcements-to-eastern-europe-amid-russian-anger

Russian naval exercises off Ireland's coast 'not welcome,' says Foreign Minister
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/24/europe/russia-naval-exercise-ireland-intl/index.html

Pentagon reveals number of US troops on higher alert over Ukraine
https://www.rt.com/russia/547231-pentagon-troops-europe-ukraine/

Rising costs of Ukraine gamble could force Russia’s hand
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/24/rising-costs-of-ukraine-gamble-could-force-russias-hand

Let's hope things don't escalate too much more. Welcome 2022...

Comments (18084)

Benkei April 04, 2022 at 05:13 #677352
Reply to baker Nice is-ought mistake there. Selective in your history too. And nowhere have I suggested everybody should be the same. And no I don't feel like expanding on this other than the obvious point we're the only animal who have started mass killing itself - not as an isolated incident but policy. The fact you think that's normal and go out of your way to defend its existence would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
boethius April 04, 2022 at 06:08 #677369
Quoting NATO chief says Russia shifting strategy: ‘This is not a real withdrawal’

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Sunday said Russia is shifting its strategy in Ukraine, discounting the idea that it could be withdrawing from the war-torn country.

“What we see is not a real withdrawal, what we see that Russia is re-positioning its troops and they are taking some of them back to rearm them, to reinforce them, to resupply them, but we should not in a way be too optimistic because the attacks will continue,” Stoltenberg said during an interview with co-anchor Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“And we are also concerned about potential increased attacks especially in the south and in the east. So this is not a real withdrawal but more a shift in the strategy, focusing more on the south and the east,” he added.

Stoltenberg discounted the idea that Russian President Vladimir Putin is scaling back his goals for the war that began six weeks ago.


NATO's said it, so it must be true, right?
boethius April 04, 2022 at 06:23 #677372
Quoting ssu
Definition of siege:
a military operation in which enemy forces surround a town or building, cutting off essential supplies, with the aim of compelling those inside to surrender.
This hasn't at all happened, so what are you talking about? Quite baseless remarks.


You did not read my comments.

I explain that the I never "predicted" Kiev would be 100% encircled with 0 supplies in the first place, just explaining an alternative purpose (lay siege) the Russians may have compared to entering the city and taking it in Urban combat (the dominative Western narrative at the time).

I explain why Russia would be trying to do so (tie-up troops and apply political pressure), and I also explain that Ukrainians will fight extremely hard to avoid total encirclement, as it would be a big strategic loss and so Russians maybe doing thing slowly and cautiously.

None of that were "predictions", just explaining a potential different plan that explains the convoy sitting on the road for example and the purposes of achieving said plan. I repeat several times that Ukrainians could potentially rout the Russians, just that I don't personally see how.

That being said:

Why it's arguably a siege (or then accomplished the intended purpose of a siege) anyways is:

And, key word "arguable"; I'm just pointing out the argument could be made anyways that there was a siege:

A. If all roads are cut off save one, and that can be covered by artillery, missile and air cover, maybe supplies are disrupted enough. As has already been mentioned, few sieges in history are perfect, so certainly Russia disrupted Ukrainian supply of Kiev, and with modern weapons and surveillance maybe a modern siege doesn't literally require a circle of guard and torches all the way around the city.

B. The media started reporting it as a siege once the West highway was taken, so maybe the definition of siege is changing to fit modern warfare (rather than medieval and ancient warfare).

But, whatever your definition of a siege, the operation may have been ended as the purposes were achieved before 100% encirclement was reached (whether the Russians could have advanced more or not): Mariupol seems essentially fallen, Ukraine accepts it won't join NATO, game changing moves like no-Fly zone are off the table, peace talks at least appear to be progressing (which, maybe disingenuous on Russia's part, Ukrainian part, or both, but the existence of the talks maybe one other purpose of the manoeuvre to lay siege).

Obviously, if purposes are achieved before an operation is fully complete ... there is no further reason to continue that operation. And, this is why I rephrased things as applying "pressure" to get these political concessions, of which total and complete encirclement may not be required; North, East and West maybe enough "pressure".
ssu April 04, 2022 at 07:14 #677395
Quoting SophistiCat
But then the mood changes. There is the expected rally-around-the-flag effect, as well as a realization that, like it or not, this is a new reality to which they will have to adapt.

Thanks for the articles. Yes, I agree with you. And in the Russian way likely people will say one thing publicly and one thing in the kitchen with people they trust. When Putin veers the discourse into something equivalent of Soviet times (without the ideology), then Russians adapt.

And Russians do support they troops.
FreeEmotion April 04, 2022 at 07:19 #677397
Quoting ssu
And Russians do support they troops.


Everyone support their troops There should be condition of enlistment that they will only fight wars sanctioned by the UN Security council. That will show them.
ssu April 04, 2022 at 07:28 #677402
Quoting boethius
A. If all roads are cut off save one, and that can be covered by artillery, missile and air cover, maybe supplies are disrupted enough. As has already been mentioned, few sieges in history are perfect, so certainly Russia disrupted Ukrainian supply of Kiev, and with modern weapons and surveillance maybe a modern siege doesn't literally require a circle of guard and torches all the way around the city.

I don't think all roads save one were cut off. And I think the trains have been moving also.

(the Economist, March 18th) The trains are fast becoming the arteries of Ukraine’s wartime being, moving refugees and exports west, and critical humanitarian supplies back to the centre. Tickets have in effect become voluntary, and the system runs almost entirely on emergency state subsidies, which last month cost 18bn hryvnia ($612m).


If Russia would have disrupted the supplies going into Kyiv, you bet you would have reporters telling about it.

Quoting boethius
B. The media started reporting it as a siege once the West highway was taken, so maybe the definition of siege is changing to fit modern warfare (rather than medieval and ancient warfare).

I think here media reporting doesn't use the word accurately. It's more like if the advance stops and one side bombards a city, it is called a siege when it's not technically one. Basically it's only that the city (or part of it) has become the frontline.

Quoting FreeEmotion
Everyone support their troops There should be condition of enlistment that they will only fight wars sanctioned by the UN Security council. That will show them.

Did they in Afghanistan? Nobody supported them... the leaders just siphoned money with salaries of nonexistent servicemen and proved no support for the army to defend itself in the Taliban offensive. So it was easy for the Taleban to make the deal to the ANA soldiers that if they go home, they won't kill them. Many took that offer. The Afghan way of war.

Isaac April 04, 2022 at 07:49 #677413
Quoting ssu
I think here media reporting doesn't use the word accurately.


Seriously? You're quibbling about the correct terminology?

The only matter of substance with regards to the 'siege' is it's impact on the question of whether sending (more) arms to Ukraine is going to do more harm than good. In respect to that question, it hardly matters if the term is being used accurately. What matters is whether the action (whatever it was) was something successfully frustrated in its objective by the Ukrainians sufficient to increase the leverage at the negotiation table, or whether the degree of obstacle Ukraine presented was within the range of responses Russian plans anticipated.

It's to that question @boethius is applying his analysis. You pointing out that some of the terminology could be interpreted differently has no bearing on that question.

Do you have anything of substance to add?
ssu April 04, 2022 at 07:55 #677416
Quoting FreeEmotion
I see no way for the good people of this world to control the trajectory of their nations be it in economy, foreign policy or the environment, maybe they never had a prayer, though revolutions keep occurring 360 degrees revolutions, these. Paradoxically, the unpredictability of war has the chance to disrupt the system. It is not ideal.

I'm not sure if it is so simply that the good things happen because of good people and bad ones because of the bad.

Things can improve even in Yemen or other places. Yet they improve in their own way with economic, social and political limitations of the society in question. Improvements can happen also in Russia, but in it's own pace and only with the agency of Russians themselves. Individuals can adapt to a new culture easily, but

Just to give an example, my country ranks the highest on the "best government list". This isn't because of our leader and politicians, but because of the society.

Let me give you a telling example. When a group of Finns find themselves in a new place together, they do two things. First they build a sauna (even if it's in the middle of the Sahara). Then they create an association. Finland has a lot of associations and a lot of Finns are active in associations. The need for various associations is obvious: if a club, a village or a group of friends decide to have anything owned collectively, they need an association. If let's say it's a rowing boat that some islanders need, it could be problematic is one person owns the boat. What if he dies? His or her heirs might just sell the boat. Hence the need for associations. And with associations comes the democracy as things are decided in associations by vote and representation.

Which then gives the society a whole way to organize itself. Things like that just don't happen with legislation and policies given by the leaders.
ssu April 04, 2022 at 07:56 #677417
Quoting Isaac
Seriously? You're quibbling about the correct terminology?

Basically the situation in Kyiv and in Mariupol are quite different. One is under siege, one isn't.

Little things like that, yes, should be pointed out.
Isaac April 04, 2022 at 08:21 #677420
Quoting Christoffer
I'm asking you to find a better alternative, that exists today. Please present an alternative that actually counters my argument here, because I still haven't heard any actual and realistic alternative yet.


This has already been answered. That you refuse to engage with the answer is not something the rest of us are responsible for. Western capitalism entails, as an intrinsic part of it's approach, efforts to destroy or harm alternative systems. As such, systems compete, and are successful, not on a metric of human well-being, but on a metric of being able to survive that inter-system competition. The most sucessful systems are those which compete best in that fight. If that's a metric you're impressed by for some reason, that's your problem.

The 'solution' such as it is, is to bring down capitalism so that it is not one of the competitors. That way alternative systems can compete on the grounds of their impact on human well-being rather than on the grounds of their ability to withstand the onslaught capitalism directs toward them.

That solution is not brought about by making countries more capitalist.
Isaac April 04, 2022 at 08:21 #677421
Quoting ssu
Little things like that, yes, should be pointed out.


Why?
boethius April 04, 2022 at 08:37 #677423
Quoting ssu
Basically the situation in Kyiv and in Mariupol are quite different. One is under siege, one isn't.


I don't care what you call it, and I never predicted Kiev to come under "complete encirclement" and "100% siege".

However, it's relevant anyways to point out it can be argued a siege mainly because lot's of media reported it that way, which affects perception and decision making.

Furthermore, if the purpose of laying siege is mainly political, then the objective end goal is likely to be more what the media reports than some physical situation on the ground: i.e. the mission is to encircle Kiev enough for media to start reporting it as a siege which achieves sufficiently the political objective, not only of serious pressure on Kiev (who, even if they don't feel it's a "true siege" would still want to break the false-siege enough for media to say they broke the siege according to the media) but also changing moods in European capitals and at home.

Sometimes media focuses on specific points on the map and builds it up as a big important battle ... whether it was true or not, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, as the fact that the media is focused on that battle and those positions makes taking or defending those positions suddenly of immense propaganda value.

Western narrative built up the Western highway as "the big battle to siege Kiev" and more or less framed things as Russia taking that highway would mean it has effectively has or inevitably can siege Kiev, and Ukrainians defending it would mean they were able to militarily defend and prevent encirclement.

The highway went back and forth several times but then ended fairly securely in Russian hands and media changed their reporting from "Russians advancing" to mostly "Kiev under siege".

Again, whether it's militarily true or not, or whether journalists even had any military basis for their claim or it's just more dramatic in a micro drama of the whole war, doesn't matter. Once a battle takes on symbolic value (Stalingrad being the most famous) then everyone knows each side has high motivations to win and the battle becomes a sort of litmus test of who has the better army. At the same time, there can be literally hundreds of back-and-forth, successes and losses, elsewhere that aren't reported and have zero symbolic value, just tactical retreats or then various wins-and-losses that tend to happen for both sides in a war.

Karkiev was also reported as under siege a lot.

In military terms, given long range and standoff weapons and also intelligence, the argument can be made that a modern siege must take into account these tactics as well.

Do I need to physically setup a roadblock on every single road if I can blow up weapons shipments on the road leading into Kiev ... or even on bases hundreds of kilometres away?

In terms of denying supply, it's no longer ancient times and even in ancient times "some supply" didn't mean breaking a siege.

However, if you rather, for the strict military analysis, say "partial siege" with "larger supply line attacks and disruption elsewhere in the 'battlspace' " ... doesn't matter to me what terminology you use here.

However, it's still relevant to the analysis anyways what terminology the media uses. So, bring your dictionary definition to the media.

And yes, definitely Mariupol was under a far more intense siege than Kiev ... that something can be more intense doesn't mean less intense things can't also share the same characteristic. "Less intense red" is still red.
Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 09:03 #677426
Quoting FreeEmotion
The big question is : do the people of that country have a say in how that country is being run? Peace, stability, prosperity, these things are important, but how do you get there?


Through the citizens of that country pushing for those things. Apathy and low education give birth to despots and tyrants. So education is extremely important, if there's anything that people from outside a country can do as a way to influence a nation to develop these good traits by themselves, it is to push education into that nation.

A good and easy example is poor nations where people don't have any education at all and there's no real government push for state-run education that is good. While everyone in western nations run around giving money to charity to feed these nations it does very little to change their status quo. However, some charities develop schools and if people could be a little patient in observation, they will see that this education has an exponential effect on the nation. Status quo changes since you get more people able to actively think about how to improve their own nation.

If people don't know why a corruption-free democracy is better than the status quo, they only have the status quo to live for.

It's the old saying; Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.

It's the same with politics: give a man a government and you will govern him, give a man the knowledge of government, and he will govern himself.

Let's take Sweden as an example. While there are factors that most likely are important to the state the nation is in today, like being "neutral" through two world wars and having a history of pushing for education and knowledge, like the Nobel prize. A major key element is how socialism formed and became a core feature of support for the people and how people get educated. The state funds education, even higher education, and it doesn't cost the citizen a dime to get that higher education. We even get paid for it and can take a small very low-interest loan for higher education to help us with rent and stuff if we need to live close to the university. All this makes it possible for any person of any class or economic situation to get top education if they strive for it. This in turn generates a high number of people able to participate in shaping society based on actual knowledge of the topics that need to be changed.

In recent years there's been, just like most nations in the west, an increase in right-wing extreme politics, with politicians from that part of the political spectrum getting into parliament. What is the most common thing among these politicians and the people voting for them? Low education. And that low education is purely based on the people having all that education free of charge and open to them, but their apathy led them down that path.

So education is the key here and whether people have a good relation, opportunity or apathy towards that education.

Russia has a lot of educated people and those are almost statistically everyone who opposes the war and Putin. The problem right now is that they risk everything if they speak up. But a huge population in Russia has little to no education, just like how the right-wing extremists of the west have been winning through the part of the population who has little to no education, so does Putin and his propaganda machine win on their support. Right now there are too few in Russia, even though there are millions of them, who are opposed to the war and educated enough to see what Putin is actually doing, to see things for what they are. But imagine if education could creep into a larger portion of the population? Then it's just a matter of time before there are enough people to oppose the status quo and when the state can no longer control the population, that's when coups and revolutions happen to radically change things.

If a nation is a security risk to the world or risk of doing atrocities towards its own people, we have enough examples of how interventions in terms of invasion and forcibly applying "democracy" do not work at all. Yes, some leaders are sometimes so bad that the removal of them might heal the nation or remove the direct threat, like how Hitler's death broke the camels back on the Nazi empire, but most often than not, it's an uneducated and poor mass that gives way for such authoritarian power.

In general, if you give the people free education and enough people apply for it, it will change the nation at its very core. The best way to change Russia from the outside, in a way that doesn't prevent themselves from changing on their own, is to try and "smuggle" in education that bypasses the state propaganda education. Schools or online education that is possible for anyone in Russia regardless of their geographical location. Get some Stalink dishes into the countryside so people can bypass state-controlled internet.

Give the people an open door to all that knowledge outside of their state control and over time it will change things. Putin and his authoritarian power can only survive on the people not knowing or understanding what he is doing or how the world outside actually is.

Like, reports are coming in that many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine... don't even know what Ukraine is. And the soldiers who went to Chernobyl and dug trenches in the red forest, have no idea where they are and they didn't even know about the Chernobyl accident. This is how Putin controls them, by their low education and total obliviousness to the outside world. Imagine what would have happened if these soldiers knew about Chernobyl, knew about Ukraine, and that Ukraine doesn't want to be part of Russia or that there are no Nazis like Putin describes the government in Ukraine to be. The fact that so many Russian soldiers have deserted or even turned on their leaders, even killed them, shows that some of them might have realized the truth and reality of everything and turned against the lies they've been fed.

Russia is filled with uneducated people who really have no way of knowing what is true or not because they were never given any tools to figure that out. And just 30 years after Soviet collapsed, that's a very short span to go from that level of state-controlled information to a very short period of openness, back into similar state-controlled information.

Smuggle education into Russia, educate the people, that's the key to changing Russia without force and with stability at its core.
Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 09:23 #677431
Quoting Isaac
The 'solution' such as it is, is to bring down capitalism so that it is not one of the competitors. That way alternative systems can compete on the grounds of their impact on human well-being rather than on the grounds of their ability to withstand the onslaught capitalism directs toward them.

That solution is not brought about by making countries more capitalist.


I'm asking for a real-world solution to an active problem that is existing right now. You are talking about anti-capitalist philosophy that I am agreeing with, but as I've said before, being an idealist in a time you need a direct solution is not possible, you need to be pragmatic. If you have a nation that is conducting war crimes in other nations after invading them as well as silencing its own people, then trying to form a new standard of global politics that bypasses capitalism is really not a solution at all.

What are the real-world actual solutions to the problems in Russia and Ukraine? I think the problem with this thread is that too many sit in their comfort and invent utopias in their heads and are unable to accept that the lesser bad is the better solution at this time. Russia becoming a westernized nation, primarily in terms of protected rights for its people and low corruption in government, might require all those bad other things with capitalism, free markets, and consumerism since much of the western standards have all of that built-in and might be inseparable in the short term.

The point I've made is that if you take all forms of societies and pit them against each other, on a large scale, the form that has the most ability to change over time is the western version, the one focusing on free speech, broad education, protected rights of the people, authorities that can review politicians and scrutinize policies etc. etc. Other forms of societies that focus more on tradition, religion, authoritarianism (dictators), and so on, generally have little ability to change since it's not built in to question the status quo.

So we can have a whole other thread of discussing the bad parts of western society, how consumerism and capitalism is ruining the world and I'm just as critical as anyone else educated on the matter. But I'm not blind to having a bias toward that critical view to the extent that I cannot see that solutions in the now and real-world today in terms of this conflict need a pragmatic perspective that enables actual solutions based on what is actually existing, not what utopian form of world past capitalism that we can think of, because that doesn't help anyone right now. Russia could go full westernized, remove Putin and corruption, have free elections, free and independent media, good education for all and be just as consumerism and capitalist as the west (which they really are anyway), and that will still be a better point of origin for future change past capitalism than how things are right now. That is my point.
Jamal April 04, 2022 at 10:11 #677453
@Isaac @Christoffer

I asked you nicely many pages ago to be civil or else ignore each other. It’s hard enough to maintain quality in this thread. When you don’t comply I’ll delete the offending posts.

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/675963

If you have a problem with this, start a thread in the Feedback category. Don’t complain about it or attempt to justify yourself here. I’ll delete such posts.
FreeEmotion April 04, 2022 at 10:27 #677456
About 'poor' nations which I have some familiarity with, it is the external shocks that prevent them taking the path of peaceful development. One option that has been taken is an authoritarian leadership that is able to suppress the natural pendulum power swings between opposing groups - that takes too long and cause too much violence. We agree that education is important, so is the right for sovereign nations to work out their problems internally, without foreign interference, which, ironically is the what is being denied Ukraine at the moment. I do not see how to avoid this unless people see the need to spread non-violence instead of 'democracy'

You made an interesting comment about Russia:

Quoting Christoffer
Russia could go full westernized, remove Putin and corruption, have free elections, free and independent media, good education for all and be just as consumerism and capitalist as the west (which they really are anyway), and that will still be a better point of origin for future change past capitalism than how things are right now. That is my point.


Could they? How could the Russian people achieve this? There is no magic spell for changing a nation, other nations can help or hinder the process, and in this case I think that there is case to be made that Russia was not helped.

Maybe you could answer the question as to who benefits from the current power structures in international politics and how can that be changed so that all nations prosper?

Instead of protesting specific military actions, people should protest militarism: but does the common man out there have the intellect or courage or insight to do this? Why aren't we all anti-war?

Here is one faith that addressees the issue at hand, I believe all religions center around this idea in one form or another. (This was the first result from a search engine, not Google, for "can all nations prosper?")

In other words, a purely material civilization bases itself on the zero-sum game called survival of the fittest, where one wins and another loses. But from a Baha’i perspective, a divine civilization, based on the spiritual virtues of love, kindness, justice and equity, operates with a completely different framework and philosophy—that we live in a world of abundance and bounty, where prosperity for all can become a reality:


https://bahaiteachings.org/zero-sum-one-nation-prosper-others-dont/
Isaac April 04, 2022 at 11:27 #677467
Reply to jamalrob Reply to jamalrob

My apologies. I'll try again.

This...

Quoting Christoffer
Russia is filled with uneducated people who really have no way of knowing what is true or not because they were never given any tools to figure that out.


...is a racist trope.

As is...

Quoting Christoffer
However, some charities develop schools and if people could be a little patient in observation, they will see that this education has an exponential effect on the nation. Status quo changes since you get more people able to actively think about how to improve their own nation.


I'm not saying @Christoffer is racist, but those two positions are both common racist tropes that need to be called out as such.

Societies which are less well developed (whether governmentally or economically) suffer from a range of constraining conditions - the majority of which are created and actively maintained by the more developed nations, and it is those conditions, not a lack of intellect, which keeps them where they are.

Were the proposition that a lack of education in advanced engineering held back a country's engineering capabilities, it would be perfectly arguable - but that an education in essentially, 'how to think' is necessary implies that these country's natively lack such an ability.

To be clear - the relation to this thread - it is Russia's material conditions, not the intellectual capabilities of its inhabitants, which prevents change.
boethius April 04, 2022 at 11:37 #677470
Quoting Christoffer
If people don't know why a corruption-free democracy is better than the status quo, they only have the status quo to live for.


I'm pretty sure nearly everyone in this thread, if not everyone, shares this same opinion.

The only differences are that of how to go about achieving it, which I think both Reply to FreeEmotion and Reply to Isaac already brought up some key point about.

We'd all like to see Russia and Ukraine and everywhere less corrupt and more democratic ... so, how? Is the key question as has been mentioned to you. Feel free to explain to us how we actually do anything about it, other than just complaining about it and assuming anyone "fighting it" has righteous cause (regardless of the outcome or how many people suffer and die).

However, it seems to me you are confusing support for what you want (which we also want) with opposition to Putin and the Western narrative of how that opposition can be carried out.

The reason us "geopolitical realist" camp is not on this bandwagon is simply because "where does that lead"?

For example, you say Yeltsin was better than Putin because some total chaotic shitshow in Russia is somehow going more towards freedom and self determination (than exactly towards authoritarianism to clean up the shitshow once people simply can't deal with it anymore and prefer some sort of order, even unjust, to chaos).

However, the realist view of Yeltsin was instability and chaos (including tanks firing on parliament buildings) in a country that has thousands of nuclear weapons.

That is really the key thing for the realists: "improving Russia" by taking down Putin ... first how? Nuclear weapons? Covert coup that results in total chaos and nuclear weapons?

The policy choices are very much limited and conditions by this fundamental and pretty big fact.

For example, Hitler didn't have thousands of nuclear weapons ... and if he did, I'm pretty sure we wouldn't have just shown up unannounced on D-day and I'm pretty sure Stalingrad would not have "held out" against a nuclear strike.

This is the key problem, nuclear weapons do change the situation, you can effectively blackmail the world with enough nuclear weapons.

The only reason this has not happened since WWII is because people think other people aren't crazy and immoral enough to use nuclear weapons and immense diplomatic effort put into creating a dialogue and "status quo" as you put it where nuclear weapons are simply off the table for tactical use.

Just like chemical warfare was simply tacitly agreed off the table in WWII, even though no one expected that to be the case given the massive use of chemical weapons in WWI there was no reason to believe no one would resort to them in the next war (indeed, Luftwaffa even designed their bombers as small and agile to deliver chemical weapons ... why drop tons and tons of bombs when a ton of nerve agents gets the job done).

The geo-political realists of today fear nuclear weapons and are willing to make concessions to limit their use, and certainly feel it foolish to actively provoke their use.

No one really knows what will happen once someone "breaks the ice" in terms of using nuclear weapons to make a point or win a battle.

Kremlin's negotiation position is basically: I don't want to go there, but I will.

There is nothing we can really do about that except return to good faith dialogue and deescalate demonising both Putin and the Russians.

We cannot "win" with sticks and stones, and therefore can only "win" with words.

Which words exactly is the question.
SophistiCat April 04, 2022 at 11:40 #677471
Quoting Wayfarer
They're depressingly subservient. It seems they have totally bought into the fact that Putin is an absolute ruler.


Well, you have to assume that there is a negative selection at work here: how else could these people climb up the power hierarchy and stay there? There are no heroes among them, to be sure. (Although a few at least jumped ship, but that's not an option for everyone.)
SophistiCat April 04, 2022 at 11:44 #677472
Quoting ssu
I don't think all roads save one were cut off. And I think the trains have been moving also.


Evacuation trains have been leaving Kiev every day since at least early March. But never mind facts, let's listen to some bullshitter obsessed with proving a point :roll:
boethius April 04, 2022 at 11:44 #677473
Reply to SophistiCat

Totally agreed. "Harming" the oligarchs actually removed their influence ... not motivated them to do anything about Putin.

The influence of the oligarchs is that they had wealth abroad and therefore could "arrange" certain deals within Russia based on wealth outside the control of the Kremlin. Placing all their wealth within the control of the Kremlin simply removes their influence basically entirely.

It also reduces, by definition, corruption if powerful people can't launder money around in foreign countries to get favours. So we have made Russia less corrupt.
frank April 04, 2022 at 11:55 #677477
From the NY Times;

"While Russian troops have battered Ukraine, officials in China have been meeting behind closed doors to study a Communist Party-produced documentary that extols President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as a hero."

"The humiliating collapse of the Soviet Union, the video says, was the result of efforts by the United States to destroy its legitimacy. With swelling music and sunny scenes of present-day Moscow, the documentary praises Mr. Putin for restoring Stalin’s standing as a great wartime leader and for renewing patriotic pride in Russia’s past."

Disgusting
boethius April 04, 2022 at 11:58 #677478
Quoting SophistiCat
Evacuation trains have been leaving Kiev every day since at least early March. But never mind facts, let's listen to some bullshitter obsessed with proving a point :roll:


It's just part of actually analysing what is actually happening.

Russian military advances on Kiev, applies large amount of pressure (call a siege or a half siege if you want), media start reporting it as a siege, Ukraine publicly abandons (under pressure that includes a half siege) political objectives like joining NATO or "the right to join NATO even if you can't actually join NATO".

I'm not denying that one road was left in the South ... I even point that out. "Dictionary definitions" (if you ask the people that write dictionaries) do not define language and how terms are used in a given context, but try to record how language changes overtime ... so maybe the word siege is taking on new meaning to refer to Russian tactics in this war, as that's what the media keep explaining.

However, even so, if Russia has intelligence on what are resupply and what are evacuations (leaving the city ... so not supplying it), and just blows those supplies up (like intelligence there's a bunch of soldiers and weapons on a base and just blows that base up), seems to me is part of the evolution of siege tactics.

Likewise, maybe the modern definition of a siege to compel concessions (such as surrender) makes sense to now include other more modern day civilian pressures (... like, I don't know, living in a subway for a month), and not just literally starving to death in a castle.

And it's not me saying these things, media repurposed the word siege for this modern situation.

However, I don't care if you call it a siege (why I changed by language to "pressure" and "surround" to be more general of whatever was actually happening), but the media used the word siege all the time and that has a political effect.

Which are pretty obvious points to make, and if you don't care about them ... maybe you just don't care about the topic.

And, if the definition of the word siege interests you so much:

According to Wikipedia (after mostly talking about sieges in ancient times, medieval times, Mongol and Chinese times, renaissance "age of gunpowder" times, WWI and WWII times):

Quoting Siege, Wikipedia

Post-Second World War

Several times during the Cold War the western powers had to use their airbridge expertise.

- The Berlin Blockade from June 1948 to September 1949, the Western Powers flew over 200,000 flights, providing to West Berlin up to 8,893 tons of necessities each day.
- Airbridge was used extensively during the siege of Dien Bien Phu during the First Indochina War, but failed to prevent its fall to the Vi?t Minh in 1954.
- In the next Vietnam War, airbridge proved crucial during the siege of the American base at Khe Sanh in 1968. The resupply it provided kept the North Vietnamese Army from capturing the base.


... how are these sieges if there all supply wasn't cut, which obviously includes air as another "root" out.

and also

Quoting Siege, Wikipedia

The siege of Khe Sanh displays typical features of modern sieges, as the defender has greater capacity to withstand the siege, the attacker's main aim is to bottle operational forces or create a strategic distraction, rather than take the siege to a conclusion.


... Why isn't wikipedia sticking to a single dictionary definition of a siege but adapting it to modern context and purposes? Someone should inform them.
Olivier5 April 04, 2022 at 12:13 #677481
They applied pressure on all those dead civilians in Busha alright.
boethius April 04, 2022 at 12:14 #677482
Reply to SophistiCat

What seems much more like obsessing over a point is going over analysis literally 4 weeks ago, which difficult to deny now, was far more accurate than what the Western media narrative was at the time (what my analysis was about: proposing other possibilities) ... and finding only the criticism that I predicted a "siege" and "encirclement".

Criticism that is simply wrong, as I was just explaining another purpose for the Russian operation there en lieux of entering Kiev and taking it with urban combat.

The prediction was simply that whatever is achieve militarily Russia can simply announce anytime they achieved their objectives (as they only ever stated fairly minimal explicit goals and demands), a prediction that has come true.

Had they achieved more (which would have included encircling all of Kiev or taking all of Ukraine if there was zero resistance) then they would have declared that mission accomplished.

As for whether the operation around Kiev was or is successful, and or whom, that will depend on what happens next.

And if posters here want to say Ukrainians "won the battle for Kiev" but may lose the war ... sure, I don't have a problem with that terminology either, but my military analysis is more focused on "winning the war" part.
boethius April 04, 2022 at 12:15 #677483
Quoting Olivier5
They applied pressure on all those dead civilians in Busha alright.


Why weren't they evacuated by those trains just mentioned as evacuating people because Kiev wasn't under a siege in any sense of the word?

Finland evacuated the entire Karelian region before fighting the Russians on it, by force: you didn't have a "choice" to stay and be brave.

Even grandma's were forced to leave. There's a famous story of soldiers coming up to one grandma's house to force her to leave before burning it down.

She says "no, I'll do it myself," and then takes the fuel and torches her own place.

Point is, she wasn't just left in the path of intensely destructive warfare.

So if Finland (who lost the war with the Soviets) is the model, why not evacuate civilians from war zones like Finland did?
Isaac April 04, 2022 at 12:20 #677484
Quoting Christoffer
What are the real-world actual solutions to the problems in Russia and Ukraine? I think the problem with this thread is that too many sit in their comfort and invent utopias in their heads and are unable to accept that the lesser bad is the better solution at this time.


You do know there's a global socialist movement don't you? I can't think of any way to interpret this question other than a rhetorical one implying you find those approaches inadequate. I can't believe you're genuinely unaware of them.

Quoting Christoffer
The point I've made is that if you take all forms of societies and pit them against each other, on a large scale, the form that has the most ability to change over time is the western version


Yes. And the counterargument takes issue with your use of 'all'. If you compare current societies, the Western ones probably experience more freedom overall than ones like Russia or China. But this is an irrelevant fact without some argument as to why we are obliged to pick from the current ones.

Quoting Christoffer
solutions in the now and real-world today in terms of this conflict need a pragmatic perspective that enables actual solutions based on what is actually existing, not what utopian form of world past capitalism that we can think of, because that doesn't help anyone right now.


As has been pointed out before, your lack of imagination, or unwillingness to read up about alternative politics, is not an argument. It's just a poor reflection of the depth of your engagement with the issues.
Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 12:21 #677486
Quoting Isaac
This...

Russia is filled with uneducated people who really have no way of knowing what is true or not because they were never given any tools to figure that out.
— Christoffer

...is a racist trope.


So, you mean that the fact that a large portion of Russians is educated, especially outside of the denser cities, is racist?

Is Russian soldiers not even knowing what Ukraine is or what Chernobyl is because they didn't get any education about any of it... racist?

Or is it that you just twist this thing into calling it such a trope in order to have an easier time making an argument?

Quoting Isaac
As is...

However, some charities develop schools and if people could be a little patient in observation, they will see that this education has an exponential effect on the nation. Status quo changes since you get more people able to actively think about how to improve their own nation.
— Christoffer


So, for example, a nation under a government that is corrupt or has little means to handle poverty on their own and almost no people educated enough to be able to work to better the nation's situation, does not need to change that status quo? And helping those nations with getting children free education so that this structural problem can be bypassed in order to have a new generation that can build something better on their own... is racist?

Quoting Isaac
I'm not saying Christoffer is racist, but those two positions are both common racist tropes that need to be called out as such.


Or, you reshape them into racist tropes without caring to understand or read what I actually propose, what I actually argue for. You ignore everything else and just focus on a cherry-picked part of my entire text so that it can fit your trope narrative and be easier to argue against. This is an extremely low-quality way of engaging in the discussion and a disgusting way of labeling others with some guilt of association. It's appalling really.

Quoting Isaac
Societies which are less well developed (whether governmentally or economically) suffer from a range of constraining conditions - the majority of which are created and actively maintained by the more developed nations, and it is those conditions, not a lack of intellect, which keeps them where they are.


I never talked about lack of intellect, I talked about education. Are you unable to understand the difference between the two? Russian soldiers don't dig trenches in the Red Forest and irradiate themselves with that soil because they lack intellect, they do it because they lack education about where they are and what consequences such actions have on them and others.

It's you who reshape what I write into being some pro-imperialistic talk of lower intellects among poor people. This type of reshaping my argument just renders what you write now as total nonsense. Because you can't see the difference between education and intellect or willingly mix them together to say I write racist things.

That's disgusting rhetorical behavior that I wished the mods took notice of.

Quoting Isaac
but that an education in essentially, 'how to think' is necessary implies that these country's natively lack such an ability.


Are you unaware that you are writing on a philosophy forum? Like, you don't understand what I mean with education enabling active thinking about ongoing problems in their nations? Like, you don't get that I'm implying that education gives tools to channel the intellect because if you have knowledge about the world, you can organize thinking philosophically to arrive at solutions to problems you need to solve.

Like, when I write:

Quoting Christoffer
Status quo changes since you get more people able to actively think about how to improve their own nation.


I, of course, mean that they have gotten an education that gives them the tools, the knowledge to deconstruct the problems in their nation. If people get educated, they learn about different perspectives, different facts, and historical events, they are much more able to examine the problems in their own nation and have the ability to channel their intellect towards practical solutions, both as a competent workforce for building their nation and as intellectuals forming laws and other ethical solutions. Without any western intervention meddling with their progress. What I'm talking about is that knowledge is a pool of perspectives where you can test out your ideas and faster reach working conclusions. Without knowledge, without education, you will be fumbling in the dark and it doesn't matter if you have the intellect of Einstein, he wouldn't have channeled that intellect if he didn't get the education necessary to think about physics in the first place. If you get poor nations free education, you give the people the ability to more effectively think about their own life and their country and how to fix things that are broken with it.

But you interpret that as "how to think", as in "imperialistic pushing an agenda". Because you seem unable to view anything other than through that lens and it's getting tiresome.

You actively misinterpret to fit your own narrative of this discussion. When I talk about education giving people the tools for changing their own destiny, you interpret that as imperialistic intervention to make the "poor stupid people" think like capitalists. That kind of stretch and the implied racism is way over the line of acceptable.

Quoting Isaac
To be clear - the relation to this thread - it is Russia's material conditions, not the intellectual capabilities of its inhabitants, which prevents change.


But it is a fact that the Russians who want to get rid of Putin, the corruption, the war and everything are the educated, more wealthy citizens of the major cities. Most others outside in the rest of the nation does not have the same level of access to good education or they're fully under the state propaganda and has basically lived in a Plato cave of Putin's narrative.

The fact that some Russian soldiers don't even know what Ukraine is, have never heard of the Chernobyl incident or seem to have any knowledge outside of what the state told them, shows just what low education does to people. As I've said, they could have had someone with Einstein's intellect within those troops, but without education, he's drafted to be cannon fodder.

The thing that prevents change in Russia is a despot dictator who shuts down any form of public discourse, any form of will to change from any of its citizens. He shuts down every attempt at change. It has nothing to do with material conditions.

What I said was that if the uneducated, poorer citizens that are mostly outside of the major cities, who are often drafted into the military as these young soldiers in Ukraine are, would have had an education that teaches them about Ukraine, Chernobyl, that gives them the space to think critically, nurture their creativity and captured their imagination with facts about the world, they wouldn't have so easily been able to be lured into the hellhole of war for someone's ideal they don't even understand.

Bottom line is that education and intellect are two different things but you seem to be confused as to which is which or what I actually wrote about because you confused the two of those concepts together in order to call someone's writing "racist". I didn't even write "intellect" anywhere, I talked about education, about learning facts, about learning philosophy, math, politics, nature, writing, and reading, tools for thought, tools to use intellect for change. Without those tools you have intellect and no facts or concepts to use your intellect through and therefore changing your country becomes much harder. Nowhere did I even remotely imply that poor nations have lesser intellects, that's your words, your writing, your concept in mind, not mine. So stop making that part of my argument, I talked nothing of the sort.



FreeEmotion April 04, 2022 at 12:24 #677487
Quoting frank
"While Russian troops have battered Ukraine, officials in China have been meeting behind closed doors to study a Communist Party-produced documentary that extols President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as a hero."


It's a comment on our different ways of looking at things that I do no find this disgusting at all. The Chinese population knows that Facebook is banned in China, that YouTube is banned, that there are restrictions from news outside.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/media/bbc-news-banned-china/index.html

BBC is also banned, although there were getting their eyefull of Western Propaganda until 2021.

This is classical party line politics. Anyone who lives in a country where Western news is banned, having the natural skepticism that is part of being human, will conclude that the government wants to hide something, and is engaged in news-shaping.

Don't you think the Chinese, being human beings, will judge for themselves if unleashing death and destruction on Ukraine makes President Putin a hero? It really beggars belief to even imagine that the propaganda item mentioned will be more regarded as more than a curiosity by the Chinese, except those who want to believe it.

Quoting frank
"The humiliating collapse of the Soviet Union, the video says, was the result of efforts by the United States to destroy its legitimacy. With swelling music and sunny scenes of present-day Moscow, the documentary praises Mr. Putin for restoring Stalin’s standing as a great wartime leader and for renewing patriotic pride in Russia’s past."


I think that most of the time propaganda of this type helps to support, not to create, views that are already held. The collapse of the Soviet Union was a goal of the West, if not planned, was one of the biggest coincidences of modern history. So I it comforting to see other people agreeing with me.

Vladimir Putin a hero? Well, there are tragic heroes, so no offence, but he might turn out to be one.

We don't need another hero.

[quote="Tina Turner - We Don't Need Another Hero";https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/tinaturner/wedontneedanotherhero.html"]All the children say
We don't need another hero
We don't need to know the way home
All we want is life beyond
The thunderdome

So what do we do with our lives
We leave only a mark
[b]Will our story shine like a light
Or end in the dark[/b][/quote]

frank April 04, 2022 at 12:28 #677488
Quoting FreeEmotion
Don't you think the Chinese, being human beings, will judge for themselves if unleashing death and destruction on Ukraine makes President Putin a hero


A few will. There was a time when Russians and Chinese tried to face the truth about what communim did to their countries in the 20th Century.

It's incredibly hard to face that kind of thing. There's a strong impetus to turn away from it and say it didn't happen.

I'm afraid that lauding Stalin as a great man is is line with denial.
FreeEmotion April 04, 2022 at 12:32 #677490
Quoting boethius
So if Finland is the model, why not evacuate civilians like Finland did?


I would think only a fool will send most of his protective armor, a large part of his defense, the human shields, out on trains. It is Illegal, inhuman, but I hope you see the insanity in advertising to the Russians "The civillians are gone, all gone, the only ones left here are those who want to kill every last one of you so do your worst". That is patently insane, and in the terror of battle I am not sure how I would react.

Maybe I would prevent the civilians from leaving and try to make believe that the Russians will not attack so much because they don't want to look bad.
FreeEmotion April 04, 2022 at 12:35 #677492
Quoting frank
I'm afraid that lauding Stalin as a great man is is line with denial.


One of the sacred traditions of this earth is to laud mass-killers as great men.

I deplore it, but that it is.

I refuse to use the title "Alexander the Great" for example.
frank April 04, 2022 at 12:38 #677494
Reply to FreeEmotion Isaac Asimov despised Alexander.
Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 12:57 #677500
Quoting Isaac
You do know there's a global socialist movement don't you? I can't think of any way to interpret this question other than a rhetorical one implying you find those approaches inadequate. I can't believe you're genuinely unaware of them.


Why would I? I live in one of the most stable socialist nations in the world while everyone else tries to copy it. And we still have a free market as well, we also have problems with capitalism as everyone else, and making us more socialist, more Marxist won't improve our nation at all, it would probably just introduce much more problems than our functioning socialism right now. The socialist utopian dreams of people in nations like the US usually are more fantasy than practical reality. Just "make a Sweden" of the nation and start building on that in that case. It looks like you keep making the argument that my "western standard" concept is something like the US? The US is rotten in terms of western culture, it's the worst version of it, a neoliberal nightmare. I'm glad I live in Sweden, and it's light years ahead of many others when it comes to a socialist western society. Use us or Norway or Finland as the measuring stick instead.

But then there's the socialist extreme left who think inventing utopias in their heads solves real problems people face right now. So far I'm all for structuring away from neoliberal market societies, but the radical socialists have dreams just as problematic. And how is that a solution to what I'm writing about?
How is that a solution to freeing the people of Russia from Putin's authoritarian boot? This is the problem I'm talking about, you have no actual real-world solution, you have a utopia in your head, a conceptual dream that won't help anyone until their basic needs are met.

You either accept a lesser bad that is able to be changed by the people, or choose a worse bad that blocks the people from being able to change. That's my point. Russia right now can't change, a westernized Russia could change. If you want a socialist change, you can only change towards that if people are free to want that.

Quoting Isaac
Yes. And the counterargument takes issue with your use of 'all'. If you compare current societies, the Western ones probably experience more freedom overall than ones like Russia or China. But this is an irrelevant fact without some argument as to why we are obliged to pick from the current ones.


Because if you want to change for the better when every one of them is bad... you pick the lesser evil. Western society is the lesser evil, we have a lot of problems, but we are free to change it, the people are free to try and change it. The other forms do not allow for such change because they silence the people when they try or they limit the knowledge that can be learned in schools in order to keep people under their control.

So when I ask you to pick a functioning real-world existing alternative to a westernized Russia as a counterpoint to me saying that a westernized Russia is the best starting point for enabling change through the people going forward. Then I want you to pick a type of society that can actually be implemented in Russia that will enable a better outcome than my example. If you can't do that, but still argue against my point, then your only outcome is to either have an alternative form that is better or argue for the status quo of Russia right now to be better. Or that you don't have a solution and just point out that a westernized Russia is bad as well, sure, that is true, but that is also pretty irrelevant when trying to find solutions to problems in the world. What other alternative can you present? That is a probable solution for Russia?

Quoting Isaac
As has been pointed out before, your lack of imagination, or unwillingness to read up about alternative politics, is not an argument. It's just a poor reflection of the depth of your engagement with the issues.


I'm asking for real-world solutions that can actually be done right now. If you want to live in fantasy land go right ahead. As I've said numerous times, there's a time and place to discuss new forms of societies, but when it comes to applied philosophy and finding actual solutions RIGHT NOW for the current situation, you cannot invent some vague socialist utopia in your head and shoot down all other solutions. That is NOT a solution. My argument was to start with a westernized Russia, that gets them to a point where they can do as we can do, where they can actually discuss things like this, where they, you know, can actually utilize that imagination to build something new.

But you are arguing like all others who dream of utopias, that we should just skip progress to that utopia. That is what destructive revolution leads to, overthrow the old and then have no fucking clue how to actually implement the utopian dream into practical reality.

I do not lack imagination, I just have a greater understanding of the concept of time and change. Political landscapes are just like geography, mountains stand strong because they change slowly. Changes that are stable and fundamental for a nation might take many generations to reach its final stable goal and when reaching them they have merely become a synthesis of more concepts than originally thought up.

But such change needs a foundation so it can change. If free speech, free and independent media, free communication, free education, free knowledge, and a great protection of the people and their voice against power is there at the foundation, it is the soil that new types of societies can grow out of. If you take that away, like in Russia, like in many nations with authoritarian regimes, you take away the soil and the growth dies, becomes dirt and static death.

Utopias mean nothing if there's no soil for them to grow out of. Dreaming of such utopias means nothing if the goal is to change the world. You start with the soil and go from there and if the fact of the world today is that this "soil" is most common in westernized nations, then so be it, that's a fact of reality right now, start there and build from there instead of trying to grow where there is no soil.
Jamal April 04, 2022 at 13:02 #677502
Quoting Christoffer
But a huge population in Russia has little to no education


Are you serious?
frank April 04, 2022 at 13:23 #677505
Reply to Christoffer

I think what you're missing is that dictatorship works better during a crisis. That's why ancient democracies evolved into monarchies over and over.

If you have a functioning democracy, that's because you're lucky, not because you had good soil. Your country hasn't faced any major crises or wars in a while.

Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 13:33 #677507
Quoting jamalrob
Are you serious?


Let me rephrase; a huge population in Russia has little to no quality education.

"in Russia students of 15 years of age demonstrate a level of knowledge “below average”

"Unfortunately, the destructive practice of depriving villages of school institutions continues to this day. Optimization was carried out in accordance with the plan“Changes in the sectors of the social sphere aimed at improving the efficiency of education and science until 2018”, adopted by order of the government back in 2014. In accordance with the document, it is planned to liquidate kindergartens and schools that regional authorities recognize as ineffective. In total, until 2018, 3,639 rural kindergartens and schools were closed, and some institutions of secondary vocational education, additional education, and boarding schools for orphans were also closed.

The amount offunding in the United States is ten times greater higher thanRussia.

(And the US doesn't even have a great educational system)
At present, in this indicator, our country is ten times behind China



And of course how the state controls the information teached, so that everything gets in line with Putin's propaganda narrative and does not enable free thought and speech around topics that could harm Putin's regime.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-schoolchildren-media-ukraine-invasion-b2027652.html

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2017/05/08/how-russian-kids-are-taught-world-war-ii-a57930


And of course there's the reports of Russian soldiers who didn't even know what Ukraine is, who didn't know about Chernobyl, who didn't know much of anything outside Putin's worldview.

So, maybe not "little to no education", but I wouldn't call any of this quality. And with some Russians not even knowing what's across the border from their own nation, or that there was something called the Chernobyl incident, how do you expect them to be able to have the "thought tools" of knowledge necessary to be critical about their own nation's regime and politics? Or dream of anything other than what they've been served?

Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 13:45 #677509
Quoting frank
I think what you're missing is that dictatorship works better during a crisis. That's why ancient democracies evolved into monarchies over and over.

If you have a functioning democracy, that's because you're lucky, not because you had good soil. Your country hasn't faced any major crises or wars in a while.


Can be luck or can be the result of that soil, that shapes the democracy into being functional. Nothing happens overnight, a functional democracy doesn't just appear, it probably starts rough, but if the foundation (the soil) is good, it will grow into something better.

So yes, it is true that a crisis creates authoritarian autocracies, which is why it's important to get good soil and nurture time after the collapse of such an authoritarian autocracy. It requires an effort of the rebuilders to make sure that this happens, otherwise, they'll be the new crisis for which another despot emerges... just like what happened with Russia and Putin.
frank April 04, 2022 at 13:51 #677510
Reply to Christoffer
You have the arrogance of the lucky. :grin:

Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 13:58 #677511
Quoting frank
You have the arrogance of the lucky.


Could be, I have a problem of arrogance, I know that much at least :sweat:
Jamal April 04, 2022 at 14:05 #677512
in Russia students of 15 years of age demonstrate a level of knowledge “below average”


The paper you got this from is citing the Programme for International Student Assessment, which is an OECD study. The same study, for example, ranks Russia above Sweden in 2003–2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_for_International_Student_Assessment#PISA_2018_ranking_summary

In the latest data Russia is around 30th. China is first. If you're wondering how Russia can change its politics, education isn't the primary problem.

See this PDF for an overall assessment of education in Russia: https://www.oecd.org/education/education-at-a-glance/EAG2019_CN_RUS.pdf

Quoting Christoffer
So, maybe not "little to no education", but I wouldn't call any of this quality.


I don't think you know what you're talking about.
Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 14:20 #677513
Quoting jamalrob
I don't think you know what you're talking about.


So ignored everything else? Like how schools shut down in villages, which supports the concept of concentration of education to the major cities, where most of the anti-Putin critics exist and are well educated.

So, me asserting the education of rural areas outside major cities in Russia, which features a large portion of Russians, is education that is low, non-existence or in low-quality, together with how many Russian soldiers, who definitely didn't get drafted from the educated city-people, don't even know what country they are in... isn't a logical assertion of the state of education in Russia? And the propaganda-based narrative of learning history and about the outside world?

What do you call all of this then? Quality education that equally creates an educational foundation for all Russians that is focused on facts and reality? It's easy to miss the smaller communities/villages, rural and countryside areas of Russia when evaluating the educational system in Russia since most of what we see is the front view of the major cities and the illusion of national wealth that they demonstrate through that image.

How would you evaluate the Russian educational system? Equal, unbiased, and enabling free thought? Most people in the major cities get their balance from being able to go online and see, hear and read other perspectives than what the state provides. Part of the privilege of those people is to self educate past the basic education. And education can be really good, as long as it doesn't conflict with Russian interests. I mean, most political thinkers and philosophers that criticize Putin would be in jail now I presume.

My point was about education, unbiased education as a foundation for people to be able to view their own nation's politics critically. If you get nothing but state-approved knowledge or live in a village where they shut down the school... what then?
Jamal April 04, 2022 at 14:43 #677516
Reply to Christoffer Education in Russia has some big problems, primarily funding. As the OECD overview I linked to says, "spending per student is still low, about half of the OECD average". And as you say, many rural schools have closed. I don't know for sure, but this latter fact could be associated with rural depopulation (which is obviously not to let the state off the hook in any way, if levels of education are deteriorating).

Quoting Christoffer
It's easy to miss the smaller communities/villages, rural and countryside areas of Russia when evaluating the educational system in Russia since most of what we see is the front view of the major cities and the illusion of national wealth that they demonstrate through that image.


"As of January 1, 2021, 109.3 million inhabitants lived in Russian cities, opposed to 36.9 million people living in the countryside."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009893/russian-urban-and-rural-population-size/

Quoting Christoffer
My point was about education, unbiased education as a foundation for people to be able to view their own nation's politics critically. If you get nothing but state-approved knowledge or live in a village where they shut down the school... what then?


So your point now is not the quality of education as measured by the widely-accepted standards of authoritative organizations such as the OECD. Your point is that Russian education doesn't allow or encourage students to be critical of the government. That's probably true, but that's not what you said. I think you built a Russophobic fantasy of ignorant subservient masses in your head and then attempted, and failed, to find academic studies proving it's true.

The best tertiary education is indeed concentrated in the major cities, and that's where all of the ministers and beaureacrats went to university. High quality education is no guarantee that students will be able to oppose the government. Those who are most loyal to the Russian government are among the best educated in the country. Your thinking on this is too simplistic.
Jamal April 04, 2022 at 15:17 #677522
Quoting jamalrob
I think you built a Russophobic fantasy of ignorant subservient masses in your head and then attempted, and failed, to find academic studies proving it's true.


To be more charitable @Christoffer, it might just be because the idea that "nasty politics is caused by bad education" (paraphrasing) is very dear to you, and you thought you could apply it to Russia just as you do to far-right European politics.
Punshhh April 04, 2022 at 15:56 #677539
Interesting thread, comparing Putin to a mafia boss.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPRLevi/status/1511000355781365767?s=20&t=3nD3A_OEWFEWX36lWBJEow
Benkei April 04, 2022 at 16:18 #677543
Reply to Punshhh I have no clue why that passes for interesting to you.
ssu April 04, 2022 at 16:29 #677545
Quoting boethius
Western narrative built up the Western highway as "the big battle to siege Kiev"

That description was closer to what was happening: an attempt (that failed).

But of course now the focus should be on the present and what seems to be a withdrawal of Russian troops in the north. It actually makes sense. If the objective cannot be met (at least with these forces), it's logical to retreat back to Belarus and Russia. The Ukrainians won't follow, yet they have to leave forces to defend Kiev from a possible Russian attack. Hence Ukrainians can then send only some units to the east or south from Kyiv. Likely the focus will be now on the Donbas and Putin carving up that Novorossiya. And perhaps have the war nice over before May 9th.

User image
...Or then it can go on longer and longer.
ssu April 04, 2022 at 16:41 #677547
Quoting jamalrob
If you're wondering how Russia can change its politics, education isn't the primary problem.

I think Russia can change and it isn't destined to be in a vicious circle of totalitarianism and gangster capitalism. The future isn't an extrapolation from history: even if Russia has only few short attempts of having democracy, that isn't an obstacle that it couldn't overcome.

A extremely humiliating defeat on the hands of the Japanese paved way for reforms in Czarist Russia. The outcome wasn't what happened in the West, but sometimes good things can become from bad things.
Isaac April 04, 2022 at 16:46 #677550
Quoting Christoffer
So, you mean that the fact that a large portion of Russians is educated, especially outside of the denser cities, is racist?


Yes, partly just on the grounds that you've provided no evidence at all, but simply assumed it. But more importantly the racist trope is the idea that 'education' (from Western sources) is needed to teach people things like how to govern, how to hold government to account, to avoid tyranny...

If one needed any specialist equipment to discover some aspect of science, one could make a reasonable argument that poorer societies, on account of their poverty, would not have that knowledge. But all that's required to govern is thought. No specialist expensive equipment is required. So what you're implying with your assessment is that the people in these countries have simply failed to work it out for themselves, they need us to teach them, they can't, parent-to-child, simply teach their own children how to be good citizens, they need us to come along and show them. That is inherent racism. It's about the narrative that we in the (largely white) West are civilised and peaceful and we have to teach the violent uncivil 'natives' how to do it.

Quoting Christoffer
Is Russian soldiers not even knowing what Ukraine is or what Chernobyl is because they didn't get any education about any of it... racist?


Yes. Do you know where the chemical waste dump outside Liverpool is? You're taking a perspective of some knowledge you happen to have, applying it to those that don't and then taking the absolutely enormous leap that they therefore don't know how to run their country, how to be good citizens, how to rise up against their government... It's outrageous and it perpetuates racist tropes. You can't possibly have missed the "50% of Americans believe..." type reports that come out again and again. American education is a mess of religious indoctrination, crowd control and vocational treadmills. Are you so sure an American conscript (should such a thing exist) would have the faintest idea what to do or not to do at Chernobyl?

Quoting Christoffer
a nation under a government that is corrupt or has little means to handle poverty on their own and almost no people educated enough to be able to work to better the nation's situation, does not need to change that status quo? And helping those nations with getting children free education so that this structural problem can be bypassed in order to have a new generation that can build something better on their own... is racist?


Yes. Again, it's a racist trope that they can't simply do this for themselves. Why does it need a school? Why does it need a qualified teacher? Which country (which racial heritage) would have educated that teacher? It's all about information flowing from the 'civilised races' to the 'uncivilised' ones. Why can't a parent in these countries simply teach their own child what they themselves have worked out about how to be a good citizen using their own rich and long cultural heritage?

Quoting Christoffer
you don't understand what I mean with education enabling active thinking about ongoing problems in their nations? Like, you don't get that I'm implying that education gives tools to channel the intellect because if you have knowledge about the world, you can organize thinking philosophically to arrive at solutions to problems you need to solve.


No. I disagree with you about it. Your inability to tell the difference between someone not understanding and someone disagreeing is at the heart of these problems. Something might really seem clear to you, that doesn't make it a fact, it doesn't mean that people who disagree have somehow failed something. It just means you lack the imagination to see how others could see things differently.

Quoting Christoffer
I, of course, mean that they have gotten an education that gives them the tools, the knowledge to deconstruct the problems in their nation.


I know what you mean. I disagree. People in poorer nations do not need to be "given tools" to deconstruct the problems in their nations. They know what the fucking problems are, it's our boot on their fucking neck. And what they need is for us to remove it.

Quoting Christoffer
If you get poor nations free education, you give the people the ability to more effectively think about their own life and their country and how to fix things that are broken with it.


The assumption implicit here is that they lack this ability natively. That there's something about their native culture that needs 'fixing', by us. These people have a cultural heritage stretching back tens of thousands of years. Are you suggesting that in all that time they haven't worked out what we in 'the west' worked out in the last few hundred? Do you not see how that plays into racist stereotypes of the violent savage and the enlightened westerner?

Quoting Christoffer
But it is a fact that the Russians who want to get rid of Putin, the corruption, the war and everything are the educated, more wealthy citizens of the major cities.


Right. So on what grounds are you claiming it's their education and not their wealth which gives them the leeway to oppose Putin?

Quoting Christoffer
Nowhere did I even remotely imply that poor nations have lesser intellects, that's your words, your writing, your concept in mind, not mine. So stop making that part of my argument, I talked nothing of the sort.


You literally just implied it in the paragraph from which this quote is taken...

Quoting Christoffer
learning philosophy, math, politics, nature, writing, and reading, tools for thought, tools to use intellect for change.


Why can a Russian child (or an Indian child, or a Senegalese child...) not simply learn those (bolded) things from his or her parent? From his or her grandparent, cultural leader, religious teacher, stories...or just watching their parents live life? Why do they need some (universally white, western) textbooks to tell them all those things?


ssu April 04, 2022 at 16:50 #677551
Might be true:

The Ukrainian military claims that Russia has begun to secretly mobilize reserves and will give priority to mobilizing people with combat experience. The Moscow authorities hope to mobilize an additional 60,000 troops.
Olivier5 April 04, 2022 at 17:01 #677552
Reply to boethius I am afraid Finland is not the model.
Isaac April 04, 2022 at 17:01 #677553
Quoting Christoffer
But then there's the socialist extreme left who think inventing utopias in their heads solves real problems people face right now. So far I'm all for structuring away from neoliberal market societies, but the radical socialists have dreams just as problematic. And how is that a solution to what I'm writing about?
How is that a solution to freeing the people of Russia from Putin's authoritarian boot? This is the problem I'm talking about, you have no actual real-world solution, you have a utopia in your head, a conceptual dream that won't help anyone until their basic needs are met.


So again, what you mean when you say "people haven't supplied me with an answer..." is "I disagree with the answer...". It's astonishing on a philosophy forum how often this seems to need repeating...

Something seeming to you to be the case is not the same as it actually being the case.

People disagree about what is the case.

Quoting Christoffer
Because if you want to change for the better when every one of them is bad... you pick the lesser evil.


Yes, but you've still not answered the question. Why must they pick the lesser evil from already existing alternatives? Why not pick the lesser evil from some theoretical system? Why not try something new?

Quoting Christoffer
I want you to pick a type of society that can actually be implemented in Russia that will enable a better outcome than my example.


Again, you've not supplied a reason why the society that can actually be implemented must already exist. New types of society can be implemented. That's how we make progress.

Quoting Christoffer
I just have a greater understanding of the concept of time and change. Political landscapes are just like geography, mountains stand strong because they change slowly. Changes that are stable and fundamental for a nation might take many generations to reach its final stable goal and when reaching them they have merely become a synthesis of more concepts than originally thought up.

But such change needs a foundation so it can change. If free speech, free and independent media, free communication, free education, free knowledge, and a great protection of the people and their voice against power is there at the foundation, it is the soil that new types of societies can grow out of. If you take that away, like in Russia, like in many nations with authoritarian regimes, you take away the soil and the growth dies, becomes dirt and static death.

Utopias mean nothing if there's no soil for them to grow out of. Dreaming of such utopias means nothing if the goal is to change the world. You start with the soil and go from there and if the fact of the world today is that this "soil" is most common in westernized nations, then so be it, that's a fact of reality right now, start there and build from there instead of trying to grow where there is no soil.


Again...

Something seeming to you to be the case is not the same as it actually being the case.

You just thinking all that doesn't render it the case.
Punshhh April 04, 2022 at 17:36 #677559
Reply to Benkei What I find interesting is how the Putin’s behaviour can be viewed through the prism of a mafia boss. As opposed to a strong man, a mad man, a megalomaniac.

The author Andrew Levi is an experienced Kremlinologist.
Benkei April 04, 2022 at 18:22 #677569
Reply to Punshhh hmmm... I don't find much use in trying to project an archetype on Putin. It seems like psychologizing just for the sake of trying to categorise a person. It says more about the person doing that than Putin himself.

Never heard of Andrew Levi though and he seems to be an investor.
SophistiCat April 04, 2022 at 19:02 #677583
Quoting frank
I'm wondering if the harsh sanctions may have been a mistake. If it just closes Russia off to the rest of the world, that's unfortunate.


Quoting Manuel
They are. No doubt about it to my mind. Perhaps isolate sanctions to oligarchs and Putin, try to make these bite, other sanctions only hurt the population.


In the past, Western sanctions against Russia attempted to spare the majority of the population by targeting mostly individuals and selected military-industrial entities. That didn't seem to have any effect. Now sanctions are explicitly aimed at the entire nation. Such total sanctions are really a war by other means, and just like in the conventional hot war, the entire nation suffers. The thinking behind such sanctions is that, even if they don't directly motivate the rulers, they may build up pressure from below. (What they don't take into account is that public discontent is more likely to be directed at those who impose the sanctions, as seems to be happening in Russia.) At a minimum, they will degrade the country's ability to make trouble abroad - but that can only happen in the long run. Sanctions won't stop an ongoing war.

Do sanctions generally work? That's a tough question. Studies of past sanctions claim to show that sanctions have achieved some objectives in a minority of cases, but also that they were more likely to succeed when objectives were modest, such as changing some trade policies. But discerning the impact of sanctions on decision making can be difficult. If Putin did not order the invasion, would that be credited to the threat of sanctions? Not likely, given that most people did not expect a large-scale invasion to happen anyway (despite warnings from Western intelligence). In Putin's case they would probably be right though: he cares little about such things.

In deciding to impose sanctions, there is a significant factor of moral outrage and moral signalling, perhaps more significant than any pragmatic calculations. We want to punish the bastards. The latest escalation of sanctioning activity is a good illustration of that point, as it followed on the heels of gruesome imagery coming from journalists who got direct access to freed areas around Kiev. Images of a dozen dead civilians lying in the street produced a stronger reaction than credible reports of hundreds of people dying from indirect fire in Mariupol and elsewhere. Let alone the estimated 95% of Afghan population that are not getting enough to eat, partly as a result of Western governments' action or inaction.
Manuel April 04, 2022 at 19:15 #677585
Reply to SophistiCat

The example of Afghanistan and Yemen too, are quite illustrative. They say a lot about "the West".

Not that this should mean we should not care about Ukraine. We should extend that care to others who are in an even worse situation, however hard that may be to imagine.

You're quite right about sanctions being related to moral outrage. But it's a bad reaction to have, because it increases tensions even more. These damn calls for no fly zones that keep popping up are a damn problem.

If I were Ukrainian, I would likely (maybe) call for them too. But I doubt they truly understand what this entails. It is not smart to isolate an enemy and try to embarrass them.

I don't like Putin. This war is a total catastrophe. But we should approach this level headed, too much is at stake.
jorndoe April 04, 2022 at 19:28 #677589
Quoting Isaac
You do know there's a global socialist movement don't you?


you should whip up a new thread, e.g. "The victims of capitalism", something like that


Maybe this is your kind of thing?
I'm thinking that differentiating socialism and communism is needed.

jorndoe April 04, 2022 at 19:36 #677593
Quoting Punshhh
Kremlinologist


Kremlinology is actually a word and a thing. How about that. :)

(seems a bit close to criminology but nevermind)

Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 21:53 #677638
Quoting jamalrob
So your point now is not the quality of education as measured by the widely-accepted standards of authoritative organizations such as the OECD. Your point is that Russian education doesn't allow or encourage students to be critical of the government. That's probably true, but that's not what you said. I think you built a Russophobic fantasy of ignorant subservient masses in your head and then attempted, and failed, to find academic studies proving it's true.


Or that it's hard to reference when getting aural information from experts not easily referenced. But on top of that quality issue, you can also add this from 2007, which would mean that the people right now, like soldiers in Ukraine, suffered from this very issue.

At present, Russian society is experiencing powerful and swift social segmentation which includes strong differentiation in access to higher education. It took 10 to 20 years to change the previous system, to leave behind the free higher education to which we became accustomed over the 70-year history of the USSR, and move to a higher education system which is not free. Social segmentation has increased in the post-Soviet period and inequality in education has become much more significant as early as at the pre-school level. The barriers at this stage are the same as at others: family income, geographical factors (the most vulnerable groups are residents of rural and less urbanized areas where the network of kindergartens is not sufficiently developed), health factors (barriers exist not only for the disabled, but also for those in poorer health) and the information parents are able to gather (Monitoring 2003, Seliverstova, 2005). As early as kindergarten the same question of equity emerges: what kind of education is accessible, if it is accessible at all mass or elite education, “bad” or “good” (the latter offering a greater range of services but for fees)? And if mass and “bad” are becoming synonyms, what social functions does such education perform? These questions, of course, are identical to those that appear in analyzing the situation at the level of secondary and higher education. It would seem that today’s educational inequalities in Russia will tend to grow, as the process does not contain any counteracting forces, governmental or societal. In this context, the position of the best-resourced groups in society will continue to be reinforced, while the position and opportunities of the weakest will continue to
deteriorate. Although inequality is not officially endorsed, it is gradually becoming the norm, becoming more legitimate, more institutionalized (via corruption, for instance), more rigid, more entrenched and more persistent. In the context of mass higher education, inequality is not so much inequality in obtaining a higher education as such, but inequality in obtaining a higher education of good quality, an elite or specialized higher education. Without a set of adequate compensatory counter-measures, this situation will lead to the crystallization of elite groups, the very sort of class inequality which Russia set out to escape from in the early twentieth century. Gaps in public policy have contributed to the development of inequality in access to higher education and in constitutional rights to free higher education. Having minimized all the mechanisms of governance and control, and the distribution and redistribution of revenue, the state is yet to develop policy directed towards reducing inequality. This task ought to become an essential focus of public policy.



Quoting jamalrob
The best tertiary education is indeed concentrated in the major cities, and that's where all of the ministers and beaureacrats went to university. High quality education is no guarantee that students will be able to oppose the government. Those who are most loyal to the Russian government are among the best educated in the country. Your thinking on this is too simplistic.


People around Putin are also afraid to speak the truth to him. Fear pushes people down, but as with that paper, the inequality in education renders a lot of people unable to get a quality education. In order to take part in questioning the government and not just learning the basics of reading and writing in order to do earn a living, it requires the exposure to other perspective, other people in education, outside views. If that is not available, it's easier to find solace in bias towards the status quo. I think the simplistic view is to just boil all of this to russophobia.

Quoting jamalrob
it might just be because the idea that "nasty politics is caused by bad education" (paraphrasing) is very dear to you, and you thought you could apply it to Russia just as you do to far-right European politics.


I'm not talking about politics that springs out of bad education, I'm talking about education freeing the minds of people in a nation so that they can start questioning things around them. If all you learn is to always do as told, as parents tell you, other grown-ups tell you, the state media tells you, if all you get is spoon-fed truths, then that is the only reality you have. I'm using "education" in this argument as a broader term for opening doors for the mind to explore the world more critically, which is an important part of a good education. If the education fails in that quality, or you are out of luck because of inequality in education, then you might not have the ability to think critically. It's easy for any of us who's on a forum about the very act of being critical, skeptical, and interested in deconstructing different concepts to take these things for granted, but one who's never had the chance of actually exploring this way of thinking will not magically have the knowledge of such tools without reinventing the wheel of critical thinking. Just check out what the Russian soldiers are thinking, how oblivious they are to everything around them. Would that happen if they had quality education? Would they dig trenches in the Red Forest if they had basic education? Would a person who had the ability to explore concepts from all over the world be able to be easily tricked by state media? Wouldn't such a person also actively explore such perspectives further, have more insight into how to get other sources of information than what the state provides?

And if it is as you say, that a majority is well educated, informed and still support Putin, even if things like Bucha happen, then they are well informed, educated people who support genocide, and should be treated accordingly. If you think it's russophobia to argue as I do here, how do you think the conclusion becomes if we conclude that they are actually well informed and support murdering civilians? I'm giving them the benefit of doubt, that they don't have either access to truth or have never been granted the tools to be critical of the government. Because if they have a great education, have the ability of critical thinking, but still support Putin after things like Bucha, then they can actually go to hell.
neomac April 04, 2022 at 23:12 #677666
Reply to Isaac
> The part in parentheses was "even if sometimes only figuratively", Ie not necessarily referring to an actual flag. The flag represents control by the government of that country. Control over some aspect of Ukraine's government (either by having them sign a binding agreement, or by installing a friendly 'puppet' governor in some region) would reduce their risk from foreign influence.

Now it’s clearer. I disagree with this claim “The flag represents control by the government of that country” even when this can be a plausible conversational implicature. National flags as Ukrainian and Russian flags (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_flag) are symbols of a nation not of their governments. Governments can change and yet the flag and the nation that the flag represents can remain the same. I’m not saying this to be pedantic, but for its motivational implications as well as strategic and moral. People who are fighting against a puppet governments of some foreign power (as Yanukovych was to the Ukrainians) in defence of their national identity and independence are not fighting against their flag, but for their flag as expression of their national identity and independence. And I find this kind of fight morally defensible.


> Well then your agreement is nonsensical. I don't know what more to say. Either fighting over national identity is wrong or it isn't. It doesn't become wrong or right based on the interpretation of some specific historical event. If your agreement that "fighting over a flag is always wrong" is dependant on how the Ukraine war is interpreted, then how did you decide before Russia invaded Ukraine?

First of all, my agreement was conditional and you should have reported as such, as I explicitly asked. If you found my conditional agreement nonsensical or confusing, you could have protested or asked for clarifications, instead of misinterpreting it the way you see fit and move on. Secondly, I formulated my conditional agreement to address an ambiguous theoretical assumption of yours that could be interpreted in different ways. Indeed, to avoid confusions about my position I also immediately explained what I meant in that post, and reiterated in the following posts. If fighting a war over a flag literally amounts to fighting over a piece of coloured fabric as an ornament of a building, then I find it preposterous and 100% immoral. If it’s understood in a metaphorical sense (which is the opposite of talking about “the insignificance of flags”), then we should clarify the metaphor and if you take the national flag to represent a government (yet this too could be morally defensible, for example if the alternative is between a democratic and mafia government), then I disagree with that reading too for the reasons I explained previously. Finally, each of us is presenting and tentatively defending a certain understanding of this war based on moral and strategic assumptions and their implications, so it’s on us to clarify how to understand our metaphors as well as our examples wrt to the issue at hand.
Concerning your alternative “Either fighting over national identity is wrong or it isn’t” is that fighting over national identity is morally defensible (even through war) because people can morally value things more than their own lives, like national identity and independence and unlike a piece of colored piece of fabric on top of a building or a puppet government.


> So you'd have to forward some argument to that effect. It's no good just saying 'for me' at the beginning and expecting that to act as an excuse not to supply any reasoning at all.

I have no such expectations. My expectations are instead that you ask for clarifications, if interested, as I did when I needed clarifications from you. Notice also that I had to reiterate my request for clarifications to you (for example wrt your alleged third strategy or your understanding of “fighting over a flag”).

>Why do you see it as a matter of Ukrainian national security vs Russian oppressive expansionism. Why not, for example, a matter of American expansionism vs Russian expansionism? To quote from the article @StreetlightX posted earlier…

Indeed the war between Russia and Ukraine can be seen in both ways, namely as “American expansionism vs Russian expansionism” and as “Ukrainian national security vs Russian oppressive expansionism”, the reason why I privilege the second depends on genealogical and moral considerations. The clash between American and Russian expansionism in Ukraine is shaped as it is because it is nested in a more ancient clash between Ukrainians and Russians (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_nationalism), which echoes in the chaos of narratives about the Ukrainian national identity among Putin and Ukrainian authorities, academics and society at large (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians#Reactions, https://uacrisis.org/en/55302-ukraine-identity, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Popular_opinion_in_Ukraine). Indeed the clash of empires doesn’t really become meaningful to people (at least ordinary people) until it resonates within their moral landscape and personal experiences: knowing that in this war USA and Russia are fighting a proxy war in a piece of land called Ukraine for human and material resources, doesn’t tell me enough to decide whom I have to side with in this war. Knowing who is the oppressor and who is the oppressed, knowing that the oppressed is fighting for something I would value too at his place, knowing that this fight is a conventional war with its toll on civilians and their homes, etc. all this is more relevant for me to decide if one should support America or Russia or neither.


>Diplomats are not the arbiters of whether a negotiation has worked. If a process stops the war, everyone can see that it has worked, we don't rely on diplomats to tell us this.

You didn’t get my point. Negotiation is a practice based on complex and institutionalised speech acts like making offers and requests, give assurances, cut deals between participants. As all speech acts , they are governed by conversational maxims, one of which is sincerity. So if all diplomats would always lie to each other during the negotiation, all negotiations would fail and the practice wouldn’t even exist. Surely diplomats my occasionally lie, and lie to the public is much easier than lying to other diplomats, yet all get’s compromised when parties start from such a position of mistrust as in this case.


> I'm only claiming that it might. I only need to demonstrate that it is possible in order to substantiate that claim. Those who argue that Ukraine shouldn't negotiate because Putin lies, have the much harder task of demonstrating that such a process never works, otherwise it'd still be advisable to try.

I see no need for such a demonstration to support the idea that is not worth negotiating with Putin, were this the case. If successful negotiations are generically possible and we may have case studies of successful Russian or Ukrainian negotiations, yet negotiations may also fail also due to deep mistrust: indeed, what credible assurance could possible give Putin to not attack Ukraine again if Ukraine gives up about NATO given that Russia has already broken past agreements (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances) ? The same goes for Putin, if Putin thinks that the Ukrainian diplomats are too influenced by the US who want this war to continue, then Putin would have no reason to go for a negotiation unless for taking time to better supply his war machine?
And, interestingly, they both could be right while the negotiation will stall.


> That matter is undeniably secondary to actually partaking in negotiations. The parties involved must actually be negotiating in order for it to even be a question.

At this point partaking is not the problem, because there have been many negotiation sessions between Russians and Ukrainians, but they got stalled.


[i] > ...that you find some arguments persuasive is irrelevant to this claim. Your claim is that arguments of America's culpability are not supported by an objective analysis of the facts. I asked how you justify that claim when so many experts, after having made an objective analysis of the facts, reach a different conclusion.

> I don't see what difference this makes if those decisions all tended in much the same direction. [/i]

The experts you are referring to (like Kennan, Kissinger and Mearsheimer) converge enough in the analysis of the genesis of the current crisis and claim how wrong the West effort to expand east-ward at the expenses of Russian strategic interests was. I can get how insightful they were on the assumption that the end of the Soviet Union didn’t mean the end of the cold war mentality, especially in the Russian political/military elites from that generation (as Putin is). Yet their claims and advise do not necessarily converge with your views in some relevant aspects. E.g. Kissinger advises “It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea. […]. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html). While Mearsheimer concludes that: “The result is that the United States and its allies unknowingly provoked a major crisis over Ukraine.” (https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf).
Anyway, as far as “great powers” politics goes, I can get that there are many good reasons to consider antagonising Russia a “strategic blunder” for the US: Russia is not a strategic threat to the US as much as China since Russia is a declining power anyways, normalising relations with Russia could have helped turn Russia into an ally against China, getting NATO involved in a war useless to the US will ruin whatever is left of NATO’s reputation if Ukraine is lost to Russia. So too much at stake for little reward on a lower priority strategic front for the US. On the other side, one big concern for the US is to preserve their long-term influence over Europe against the ambitions of Russia and China, or against Germany becoming more assertive (https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ICS-USEU_UNCLASS_508.pdf, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/could-europe-fear-germany-again) and for the EU (especially for the easter European countries) the concern is to preserve NATO’s protection against any military threat especially from Russia. So the US can not overlook the national interests of its partners and allies in Europe, as much as in Middle East as much as in Indo-Pacific. Even more so, given the technological and economic power concentrated in the EU. Additionally this war is a tragic but maybe necessary wake up call for Europeans against the existential threats coming from authoritarian geopolitical powers and the risks of relying only on the US military support.
And we could go on by wondering what a “strategic blunder” was for Putin to start a war in Ukraine, etc. And it wouldn’t be over yet, because we should also strategically analyze the possible outcomes of this war, etc. and how the rest of the world could react to each of them.
While all this is certainly precious feedback from experts and governmental advisors, yet government foreign policies and foreign policy trajectories over decades are the result of such an overwhelming informational and motivational selective pressure on decision makers (or generations of decision makers) and executive branches by all kinds of teams of experts, lobbies and world events that no strategic analyst could fully rationalize within their theoretical framework, I’m afraid.

But the major problem is the unresolved logic tension between strategic view and moral view. If you want to talk about morality and moral responsibility you need moral principles and agency (capacity of making and executing free informed decisions). Now from great power politics, however morality is relative (“national identity is just a flag”) or instrumental and agency is always reduced to “causal” reaction to perceived existential threats or opportunities (which sounds as an oxymoron wrt so-called realist view in geopolitics), so preventive moves to increase deterrence, reciprocal threats and ping-pong blame game are structurally embedded in this view. Indeed the competition between Russia and NATO didn’t begin with NATO enlargement’s provocation simply because it never really ended with the Cold War (https://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/96-98/cottey.pdf, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1995/09/21/yeltsin-vs-clinton/442ba04d-23c7-4d8b-9732-2dda43e1544b/).
And geopolitical agents are theoretical abstractions that may hide very different situations for real political agents. Putin’s dictatorial power extends over the last two decades so he could take all his time to prepare for this war and take effective decisions consistent with his goals, meanwhile in the US there have been five different administrations (including a philo-Putinist Trump) in loose coordination with an even greater number of changing and politically divided EU leaders and governments, decided also thanks to a growth of anti-globalist populism that Putin contributed to feed with his money and troll armies. So not exactly the same situation for responsibility ascriptions.


> The west is delivering weapons to the oppressed. Whether that's 'helping' them depends entirely on your analysis of their options.

Sure, then again the West tries to help the oppressed by delivering weapons instead of trying to help the oppressor.


> So? How many people have the 'stick' immiserated. That's the metric we're interested in, not the method.

We who? I’m interested in the method too though. You are interested in metrics? No idea of the number of victims on both sides. Do you? Nor have I an idea about the weight you would assign to each causal factor of your multi-causal analysis. Do you? Out of curiosity, can you give me a rough idea about what your math to calculate the Ukrainian misery based on your multi-causal analysis would look like ? Can you list, say, 3 causal factors and tell me the weight you would assign to each of them and why?



[i]> 4. Ukraine seems more open to share our views on standard of life and freedoms than Russia. — neomac
What am I supposed to do with that? What evidence to you have? [/i]

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/04/are-ukrainian-values-closer-to-russia-or-to-europe/


> 1. This gives Russia no more than is de facto the case already, so it doesn't give an inch on Russian expansionism, it just admits that we've failed to contain it peacefully as we should have. Russia already run Crimea, Donbas already has independent parliaments and make independent decisions, NATO have already pretty much ruled out membership for Ukraine, as have Ukraine.

A perfect summary of Putin’s negotiation tactics, well done. Yet this tactic didn’t sound that convincing so far and BTW also the US had a de facto puppet government in Afghanistan for 20 years. So no, you didn’t offer any third strategy equally opposing the West and Putin, you just repeated Putin’s demands and related blackmails without considering Ukrainian demands at all.

> 2. I care very little about Russian expansionism when compared to the lives of thousands of innocent Ukrainians.

Therefore you do not care to offer an opposing strategy against Russian terroristic expansionism, (worse than any Islamist terrorism has been so far to the West).

[i]> If you want to throw them in front of the tanks to prevent it, that's on you, but I'm not going to support that.
> Now explain how it's morally acceptable for us to throw Ukrainian civilians in front of Russian tanks to help us achieve these goals.[/i]

Who is us? I didn’t throw anybody under tanks. And the antecedent of that conditional is false. Nothing to explain here.


> What 'moral reasons'?

Putin is a murderous and criminal oppressor of innocent Ukrainian civilians. This claim is intelligible without any multi-causal talks and arguments ab auctoritate. So Western leaders have moral reasons to contrast Putin offensive expansionism the best they can, as long as they can.


> We're talking about the US and Russia here, not Isis. The US 'method' is causing more deaths in Yemen right now than are being caused in Ukraine by the Russian 'method'. And Yemen isn't even the US's only theatre of war as Ukraine is Russia's.

Sure, but your preposterous claim about the immorality of fighting over a flag or national identity was general. And so I offered you another counter-example to make my case even more clear.
If you want to talk about the US and Yemen open another thread. Concerning “methods”, I simply claimed they have moral implications and therefore I take them into account: a stick and carrot strategy (a mix of incentives and deterrence) may be morally more defensible than a full blown-war as in this case.


> Care to expand on these clandestine 'personal preferences’?

Well it was a minor point of a general consideration, but let’s say as a mere hypothetical example that Putin paid you with his precious rubles to support his propaganda in this forum against the meddling of the West in Ukraine. Prior to the war, I would have considered it just something I dislike, now I would consider it immoral.


> That just goes back to your disagreement that Russia had any reason at all to see NATO's actions as a threat (ie arguing that NATO weren't even shaking the table at all). The problem is, an overwhelming quantity of foreign policy and strategic experts disagree with you and you've not provided a single reason why anyone would take your view over theirs.

Indeed, I offered reasons mainly to question your 2 moral claims:
Recklessly endangering millions of people by knowingly provoking a ruthless tyrant without any meaningful protection for those he might attack is immoral (as an accusation against the West).
Fighting a war over a flag is without doubt immoral.
And in this post I could complement my arguments with a few more comments about the experts you were alluding to. I didn’t do it earlier simply because I didn’t know whom you were talking about.
Manuel April 04, 2022 at 23:34 #677675
Reply to neomac

Hey neomac.

It would be easier and quicker if you just quote whomever. All you have to do is highlight the posters sentence and/or paragraph and click the black "Quote" box, and you'll see that segment quoted in your post.

Quoting neomac
Fighting a war over a flag is without doubt immoral.


Like so.

Christoffer April 04, 2022 at 23:54 #677682
Quoting Isaac
But more importantly the racist trope is the idea that 'education' (from Western sources) is needed to teach people things like how to govern, how to hold government to account, to avoid tyranny...


I said nothing of that, that's your words. This is your problem, you reshape someone's argument to fit your anti-western narrative. I said nothing of "western education". You simply cannot read someone's post without looking though your own narrative of what is being said.

Quoting Isaac
But all that's required to govern is thought. No specialist expensive equipment is required.


So you mean that critical thinking, the process of being able to be unbiased and rational in reasoning is not part of a quality education? No wonder you write as you do in here since you seem to miss that philosophy is pretty much built upon methods to make sure you don't get stuck in biases. You really don't think "thoughts" can be manipulated? What actual knowledge in psychology do you really have to propose that "thinking" requires nothing? Thinking in of itself, even with a high intellect means nothing without the knowledge of how to structure such thoughts into reasonable and logical arguments.

Quoting Isaac
they need us to teach them, they can't, parent-to-child, simply teach their own children how to be good citizens


Because we have such good examples through history of this actually working? How naive are you? This is basically the "common sense" argument and it has zero validity when breaking down people's biases. "Common sense" taught down to children is extremely biased towards whatever opinion those parents have. Education enables tools of thought for examining one's own pre-existing concepts and ideas, it enables you to realize just how little you know. The way you're describing it is extremely naive and excludes every basic knowledge of how psychology in sociological terms works.

Quoting Isaac
That is inherent racism. It's about the narrative that we in the (largely white) West are civilised and peaceful and we have to teach the violent uncivil 'natives' how do do it.


And I call this bullshit because you don't understand a single thing of what I write. I have not said anything of teaching "uncivil" natives". I've been talking about the problem of education and the problem of propaganda in education, limiting the ability to gain access to tools of thought that make you able to think critically. It's a universal thing and I could apply it to the US as well and their awfully unequal educational system.

You just make up shit to fit your counter-argument but it's hollow when you basically are unable to understand the actual conclusion being made.

Quoting Isaac
Do you know where the chemical waste dump outside Liverpool is? You're taking a perspective of some knowledge you happen to have


Chernobyl was a globally known incident that is very relevant primarily to Russia. Don't even try rationalizing your point here.

Quoting Isaac
It's outrageous and it perpetuates racist tropes.


I'm beginning to think that you're just playing a game of mentioning "racism" as much as possible until it becomes the true narrative. Much like how propaganda works.

Quoting Isaac
American education is a mess of religious indoctrination, crowd control and vocational treadmills. Are you so sure an American conscript (should such a thing exist) have the faintest idea what to do or not to do at Chernobyl?


No, they don't, but I'm not talking about Americas education really, I'm talking about what is going on in Russia. I couldn't really give a fuck about American education because America is not my measuring stick for quality, it's my measuring stick for western failure. There are far better examples of "good western societies", but you really like to make everything into a Russia/American dichotomy because I think it's the only way to argue for your point of view. If "western" is just America I would agree with a shitload of what you say, but it's become a strawman for your arguments so I can't take it seriously.

Quoting Isaac
Yes. Again, it's a racist trope that they can't simply do this for themselves. Why does it need a school? Why does it need a qualified teacher? Which country (which racial heritage) would have educated that teacher? It's all about information flowing from the 'civilised races' to the 'uncivilised' ones. Why cant a parent in these countries simply teach their own child what they themselves have worked out about how to be a good citizen using their own rich and long cultural heritage?


Do you really not see how naive this point of view is? Like, forget a moment that you just push everything through the narrative of "western teachers" and all your racist twisting and turning, if I say "quality education", I mean neutral education, I mean free of propaganda, even western propaganda, if you want to turn to the American perspective of education again... *sigh* ...you get propaganda as well, but as I said, I don't give a flying fuck about the Americans, I'm speaking of neutral education, facts, knowledge, as they're published as it is. "Quality" education means quality in that neutrality, otherwise it's not a quality education, because it's biased towards something non-neutral.

But as always, you cannot understand anything of this without applying your racist bullshit narrative. You cannot grasp that there's another perspective here than some American imperialism. I'm not American, I don't give a shit about that perspective and it's not the perspective I'm arguing from.

Quoting Isaac
No. I disagree with you about it.


Disagree about what? What exactly do you disagree with in that text?? That good quality, neutral education, that enables people to see unbiased facts, different perspectives, concepts of how to think with deduction and induction... is not giving someone the tools to think critically and without bias?
Read it again:

Quoting Christoffer
Education enables active thinking about ongoing problems in the nation. Education gives tools to channel the intellect because if you have knowledge about the world, you can organize thinking philosophically to arrive at solutions to problems you need to solve.


What exactly do you not agree with? Or are you saying... on a philosophy forum... that the concept of philosophy itself is bullshit? In that case, you are hilariously derailed in thought :rofl:

Quoting Isaac
It just means you lack the imagination to see how others could see things differently.


Are learning facts a universal human constant of gaining knowledge? Is a high level of knowledge required to reach wisdom? Is wisdom not needed to be able to internally pitch different perspectives against each other to induce a probable truth?

You lack the imagination of understanding this perspective because you don't even understand that my idea of quality; unbiased education is about gaining the ability to see different perspectives. It's the core point of how to be able to think critically. It's the fucking point. What you describe is to value some "common sense" ideas and ideals, uncritically, as valid perspectives of thought. Which is an absolutely apologetic view of accepting anyone's opinion as valid, even if that is purely pro-Putin propaganda or even American imperialism. Why don't you also then value the indoctrinated exceptionalistic education American schoolkids get? Or is that then bad because it's America, it's really confusing how you rationalize your argument here.

In my perspective, your perspective here is the door that opens to extremism, regardless of type. This is the way to get a biased uncritical point of view, without the ability to question it. Your naive defense of "common sense" thinking doesn't even try to rationalize past these problems.


Quoting Isaac
I know what you mean. I disagree. People in poorer nations do not need to be "given tools". to deconstruct the problems in their nations. They know what the fucking problems are, it's our boot on their fucking neck.


You really pull a blanket conclusion over all of them do you? Even those who ask for help to get good education to their nations. Even those who want to kick start their nation as a self sustaining society, but don't have the necessary education to do so. I mean, when I see children in schools funded by charities, when I see the hope in their eyes of getting doors opened to do things in their life and not just be victims of poverty and politics, then I feel hope, because the actual people of the country gain the knowledge to do something and not just have to wait for whatever political problems that is going on or whatever political boot the west push down on them.

Have you not even had the thought that if there's a western boot pressing them down and not enabling them to rise up against it, a quality education, neutral education that grants them the knowledge to act against that boot might just be the solution to getting rid of that boot?

Have you even talked to people from these poor nations? Do you have any real knowledge of what they actually want but don't have means to achieve?

You seem to not understand that "western intervention" is not just "American imperialism", but it can also be economic contributions and projects to help get them on their feet and into independence. You seem to view everything through having "America" as the "western" part of the argument. What about Sweden's contributions? We pay more of our BNP to help poor nations than most other nations do, we have a strong presence building up education in poor nations, and none of that education is some American propaganda being taught.

It's like you don't really have any insight into any of this past your American imperialistic criticism, nothing that's even close to what my perspective really is here. You put words in my mouth that I didn't say, over and over. How can anyone take you seriously if you do that?

Quoting Isaac
The assumption implicit here is that they lack this ability natively. That there's something about their native culture that needs 'fixing', by us.


Not at all, your words again, not mine. It doesn't imply anything other than "education". Giving access to facts about the world, reading, writing, math, geography, history and of course methods of unbiased thinking, which is my core point.

If you mean that they cannot keep their heritage while still having gained the knowledge of unbiased thinking that has been fine-tuned through philosophy and science over hundreds or even thousands of years, then you don't really understand what I mean when speaking of education.

You are speaking of propaganda. But if I teach someone how to do proper deductions, that has nothing to do with anything other than logically fine-tuning thinking itself to better reach valid conclusions. That is a universal method for human beings to bypass bias and is critical for anyone wanting to reach beyond set ideas. If set ideas and traditions that keep someone stuck in a loop of destructive behaviors, sociologically or psychologically, and they want to find a way past it, such tools of thought become invaluable.

That is not fixing, it is sharing. What they do with that knowledge is up to them. But you seem to talk about education as telling them what to think, I'm talking about enabling tools for them to think for themselves, beyond cultural and human biases, methods that are universal for channeling the human intellect, regardless of cultural preferences. But you seem unable to understand this difference or you are just choosing to misinterpret it so that it fits your opinion here. But you just come off as being fundamentally unable to understand the argument I present without having to change it completely to fit your anti-racist rhetoric.

You invent conclusions I didn't make to apply some racist narrative here, it's such a low point that I cannot take you seriously.

Quoting Isaac
So on what grounds are you claiming it's their education and not their wealth which gives them the leeway to oppose Putin?


A mass of people opposing a government does not need wealth to topple that government. But the mass in Russia is suppressed, by low numbers, themselves or a lack of knowledge that shows them what is true and what is propaganda, and because they don't reach "critical mass" for such a "singularity", they are more easily suppressed by authoritarian force.

Not even the wealthy dare oppose Putin. Just look at Roman Abramovich.

The lone individual, the small gatherings can't do anything. But if millions marched against Putin, he cannot just imprison or "make them disappear". And how do people gather like that? Because they all have the knowledge to see through the propaganda and the ability to organize against it. If you don't think this is a solution against the authoritarian regime Putin has, then what is a solution? Apathy?

Quoting Isaac
You literally just implied it in the paragraph from which this quote is taken...


Do you have a reading disability or am I just not competent enough in English?

Quoting Christoffer
learning philosophy, math, politics, nature, writing, and reading, tools for thought, tools to use intellect for change.


Aren't I implying here that learning all of that enables tools for the intellect of those people? Tools that the intellect can use within those people?

Or are you just again intentionally interpreting in your own way to fit your argument?

Quoting Isaac
Why can a Russian child (or an Indian child, or a Senegalese child...) not simply learn those thing from his or her parent? from his or her grandparent, cultural leader, religious teacher, stories...or just watching their parents live life? Why do they need some (universally white, western) textbooks to tell them all those things?


Then let them. If they are in a dire position, if they are suffering, if there's something fundamentally broken with their government that makes them suffer, then we shouldn't give a fuck. That's your argument. That's your simple conclusion to all of this. Instead of realizing that "education" is not some western imperialistic interference just because you require that for your argument to work. But can instead be a way to give people a chance to fix things themselves. You know, education does not have to be some western ideals being taught, it can be tools of knowledge that are universal. Giving people facts, giving people methods, like in math, giving people the knowledge of math isn't some western imperialistic push.

Your rhetoric of all of this being racism requires that your very specific interpretation of "education" is true, which is not the case here, so stop pushing bullshit about racism and take a single second to try and understand something outside of your biased point of view.

Quoting Isaac
So again, what you mean when you say "people haven't supplied me with an answer..." is "I disagree with the answer...". It's astonishing on a philosophy forum how often this seems to need repeating...

Something seeming to to you to be the case is not the same as it actually being the case.

People disagree about what is the case.


I'm still waiting for a rundown of that alternative form of society, which is what I haven't seen so far.

If I present an actual real-world solution, right now, as a pragmatic and practical thing that can actually be done; is to help the more westernized part of Russia to gain power in order to install better protection for people in terms of freedom of speech and reduce corruption in election and politics, because these people are the ones who primarily push against the state for such reforms (think, led by Navalny), then people say, NO they should not install anything "westernized" and fix things in some other way...

...what then is that "other way"?

Can you give an actual real-world solution? Practical philosophy. How can Russia get rid of the corruption, propaganda machine and state violence against its own people?

I'm still waiting for an answer to this, but so far I haven't heard a single rational solution. Maybe you confuse "solution" with "interpretation of status quo", very different things, one is a progressive proposition and the other is just opinions of interpretations.

Quoting Isaac
Yes, but you've still not answered the question. Why must they pick the lesser evil from already existing alternatives? Why not pick the lesser evil from some theoretical system? Why not try something new?


Pick what? I still haven't heard of an actual functioning system that can be implemented practically in this real-world event that is going on? You are dreaming up utopian solutions when I try to practically form a solution that is actually realistic. So if you cannot actually describe how this unmentioned system is supposed to be applied, then it's just fantasy, utopias in your head of reforms just "happening" without any logical casuality.

Here's my suggestion for westernized Russia. Implement social democracy, write a constitution with a strong focus on the protection of people's right to free speech, implement laws that protect independent media, and have state media be just funded by taxes, but ruled by constitutional law to be a critical entity of the government, free from any capitalist biases. Have a great form of welfare, either direct or through basic income, and have active organizations for anti-corruption work, much like Ukraine has had and successfully reduced corruption with. Outside of that, let them have a free market in order to engage internationally if they want. The main thing here is the basic rights and anti-corruption methods. The "soil" to grow something new from as I've put it.

Now, what's your form of society that fixes the problem they have now? Please pick an alternative that is a practical reality and not just some fantasy, because what I describe is able to happen if people like Navalny get into power since there's already a foundation for that kind of society. If you have some radically different society in mind, that is not a practical reality and doesn't help anyone at all. Come back with those ideas when stability is reached and there are freedoms implemented in the country to be able to progressively change towards that.

Quoting Isaac
Again...

Something seeming to to you to be the case is not the same as it actually being the case.

You just thinking all that doesn't render it the case.


You haven't presented any alternative, nor anything other than dismissal through misinterpretation or downright putting words in others' mouths to enable your argument to make sense.

The fundamental bottom line of your rhetoric and argument is: "You are wrong and here's how I think you are wrong by changing your argument to become wrong so that I can be right". That is a truly low point to sink to and I cannot take your arguments seriously because of it. It just becomes negative noise
BC April 05, 2022 at 01:36 #677704
[quote: The New York Times]As Russia Pulls Back, the Horror and Atrocities Mount[/quote]

Like other sensible peace-loving people, I am totally opposed to Russia's attacks on Ukraine, aka "war". However, I am surprised by the official and press reactions to dead bodies, particularly dead civilian bodies. As Sherman observed, "War is hell!" Why would there not be civilian casualties? Granted, corpses with tied hands and a bullet in the head look like executions, and we are right to ask "What the hell is going on here?" But people get killed in war, and not just soldiers.

It's been a long time since armies met on a field and did battle away from the civilian populations. Urban war is bound to destroy people and property. It goes with the territory.
Manuel April 05, 2022 at 01:47 #677708
Reply to Bitter Crank

It stirs the passions, quite understandably, but it's very reactionary and does more harm than good. Plus, we seem to have ADHD brains in the West. Remember that Syrian refugee boy who drowned trying to reach Europe? That picture of the boy was massive, but it was forgotten quite quickly.

As you say, this is very, very ugly and one would not be so analytical if we were inside the war, but, what do they expect? Dodgeball?

The point is to stop this, by doing more sanctioning, we are further isolating them.
FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 01:48 #677709
Quoting Bitter Crank
It's been a long time since armies met on a field and did battle away from the civilian populations. Urban war is bound to destroy people and property.


Highlighting civilian deaths is a proven propaganda tactic. So is making believe that this is the only war ever fought in history - recent history. Obviously we need something else, but take note that the United States is planning for more wars - this is a fact - and more civilian deaths.

Today's headlines.

BBC:
[b]EUROPE
International outrage grows over civilian killings[/b]


Civilian killings where? Yemen? Iraq? Other conflict regions we cannot name because the news does not name them?

I am willing to bet international outrage grows over Western governments hypocrisy. Hopefully this is the first step in a long downward sloping trend in credibility. It is not news anymore. I have no use for subjecting myself to eternal bias.

It reminds me of the unsophisticated attempts of some communist countries to imprison people and subject them to loudspeakers blaring "Communism is good" 24 hours a day. It is torture, and in this case can be escaped at the click of a button.
Manuel April 05, 2022 at 02:03 #677712
Quoting FreeEmotion
Civilian killings where? Yemen? Iraq? Other conflict regions we cannot name because the news does not name them?


And this can't be stated enough. Yemen is the "worst humanitarian catastrophe" according to the UN.

Afghanistan is starving too.

But we seem to care less about them. It's sad.

On the other hand, it is legitimate to be extra worried about this, because it involves a nuclear power in a very delicate situation. So there's that.
Streetlight April 05, 2022 at 02:12 #677717
The US wants to persecute Putin at the ICC. What, the same body they threaten every time they dare raise the prospect of investigating American war crimes? The same one whose statutes they have not ratified? Fucking joke.

Oh, and the US calling for Russia to be kicked off the UN Human Rights council. My God. A comedian couldn't write better lines if they tried.
FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 02:22 #677719
I think we need to make the distinction between the people of the United States, the people of Russia, and the regime, the Biden Regime, in this case. There is a large disconnect between the what the people want and what the Regime wants, in many cases.
Hinterlander April 05, 2022 at 02:46 #677728
Why the need? Those regimes don't come to power in a vacuum.
FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 02:58 #677731
So who puts them into power? The Biden Regime enjoys a little more than 51% support. That is already a division. Voter turnout was

In 2020, 67% of all citizens age 18 and older reported voting, up 5 percentage points from 2016 (Figure 1).


That works out to 34% roughly. Factor in the vast sums of money spent on media and campaigning, and you only have to decide if the money was totally wasted, or had some influence on the election.

I never found out if Russian meddling swayed the election in 2016, which works out to a colossal failure in the democratic process. But never mind, I'd rather watch North Korean TV, at least it is obvious whose side they are on, no meddling of any sort there.
BC April 05, 2022 at 03:21 #677733
Quoting FreeEmotion
I am willing to bet international outrage grows over Western governments hypocrisy.


I am not counting on it.

For one thing, I do not accuse governments --ours, the Russian, the Indian, Chinese, or North Macedonian to be consistently truthful and never to be dissemble. Sovereign states are not individuals, and they cannot operate with very much transparency. So, The US can criticize Russia, even though our own foreign policy has often been backed up with brutal warfare, and visa versa. War is, after all, the conduct of diplomacy by 'other means'.

Hypocrisy is a feature of human behavior, and everyone, and every institution we create, employs it periodically.

Better to save our outrage for what we see (or about which we have reliable reports). Russia invaded Ukraine. It doesn't matter much to me whether they are hypocrites, racists, sexists, imperialists, or anything else. They probably want to acquire some nice real estate, and maybe they want to control Ukraine's politics and economy, for their own convenience of course.
Manuel April 05, 2022 at 03:31 #677737
Reply to StreetlightX

Well man, I mean, not too long ago Saudi Arabia was a member of the Human Rights section in the UN. The Council on Human Rights (?) or something like that.

That's extraordinary. I agree with @Bitter Crank that hypocrisy is a built in feature of people and states, but, even here, some examples are quite baffling.

It's best to be an equal opportunity offender when it comes to foreign policy, meaning, call out each state for the crimes it does, while not discounting that some states do much more harm, because they have much more power.

One thing's certain, there are no saints in international relations. There are victims and aggressors, but states all have heavy criminal components.
Benkei April 05, 2022 at 05:16 #677771
Reply to Bitter Crank You don't travel enough.

There's plenty of anti-Americanism going around and hypocrisy is one of the first thing spoken about. How can they complain about human rights abuses when they had their renditions, water boarding and torture, Abu Ghraib? How can they complain about aggression when we had aggression in Iraq and Afghanistan and Pakistan?
neomac April 05, 2022 at 05:42 #677780
Reply to Manuel

Thanks Manuel, but going back and forth when there are too many quotes to comment on and little/scattered spare time to dedicate is unpractical to me. So before commenting, I often copy the entire target post somewhere else and then I comment inline whenever I have time.
BC April 05, 2022 at 05:48 #677783
Reply to Benkei True, I probably don't travel enough. Why don't you take me on a whirlwind tour of Europe, the Middle East, South Asia, and SE Asia? You can introduce me to all sorts of people who are pissed off about America. I am shocked (shocked!) to hear that we are not universally loved and admired.

Hypocrisy is easy to complain about because whoever the target is, they are guilty (except me and thee, and even thee has spoken out of both sides of your mouth on one occasion). People are pretty much alike, and your righteous European sneering at American hypocrisy, is able to overlook their own and their own government's and nation's hypocrisy. What! Holland has hypocrites? No!

We great powers also are pretty much alike. Whether it was the British in their Empire, the French, Belgians, Russians, Germans or Americans, we generally exercise power similarly. We have the wherewithal to off-shore our requirements for a temporary torture chamber; we can pull off an invasion of Ukraine, Iraq, or Afghanistan if it suits their current needs. Taiwan, beware. The Netherlands can not. Neither can Denmark, Latvia, or North Macedonia, fine places though they may be. If you all want to get to the bottom of something in a hurry, you have to deploy the thumb screws and waterboards yourselves, which helps you avoid hypocrisy. BTW, when is the Netherlands finally going to invade Lichtenstein?
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 06:36 #677793
Quoting Bitter Crank
your righteous European sneering at American hypocrisy, is able to overlook their own and their own government's and nation's hypocrisy. What! Holland has hypocrites? No!

We great powers also are pretty much alike. Whether it was the British in their Empire, the French, Belgians, Russians, Germans or Americans, we generally exercise power similarly. We have the wherewithal to off-shore our requirements for a temporary torture chamber; we can pull off an invasion of Ukraine, Iraq, or Afghanistan if it suits their current needs. Taiwan, beware. The Netherlands can not.


This was not always the case. The Netherlands had an oversea empire in South Africa and Indonesia. They invented the apartheid system to rule it, primarily to avoid inter-racial sex and marriage. Their very long war against the independent-minded Acehnese became a war of extermination. Dutch troops wiped out entire villages and murdered civilians by the thousands. That's how they 'won'.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 06:59 #677799
Quoting Bitter Crank
Urban war is bound to destroy people and property. It goes with the territory.


That's true but let's not trivialize war crimes either. To execute civilians with a bullet in their head, dozens or hundreds of times over, are the kind of things the Nazis were doing.
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 07:11 #677802
Quoting jorndoe
Maybe this is your kind of thing?
I'm thinking that differentiating socialism and communism is needed.


An Interesting prospect. I'll wait to see if anything arises.
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 07:15 #677805

Quoting neomac
People who are fighting against a puppet governments of some foreign power (as Yanukovych was to the Ukrainians) in defence of their national identity and independence are not fighting against their flag, but for their flag as expression of their national identity and independence. And I find this kind of fight morally defensible.


Right. Well we'll just have to agree to differ. If you find it morally defensible and I don't, I don't see how much further we can go as there are few arguments that can profitably be brought to bear. The working class in both societies have more common interest against the ruling classes of both societies than the entire population of one has against the entire population of another.

Quoting neomac
fighting over national identity is morally defensible (even through war) because people can morally value things more than their own lives, like national identity and independence and unlike a piece of colored piece of fabric on top of a building or a puppet government.


It's not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed. Western governments decide in what way to assist. Ukrainian children die. They didn't get a say in the matter. If you think that's moral, that's your lookout, but I don't see how. I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet.

Quoting neomac
knowing that in this war USA and Russia are fighting a proxy war in a piece of land called Ukraine for human and material resources, doesn’t tell me enough to decide whom I have to side with in this war. Knowing who is the oppressor and who is the oppressed, knowing that the oppressed is fighting for something I would value too at his place, knowing that this fight is a conventional war with its toll on civilians and their homes, etc. all this is more relevant for me to decide if one should support America or Russia or neither.


It's not about 'sides' it's about tactics. It's not possible to support a nation (like Russia, or the US or Ukraine). There are 41 million people in Ukraine and they have different opinions. You can't support them all. You're picking a method and supporting that.

Quoting neomac
all get’s compromised when parties start from such a position of mistrust as in this case.


I don't see how. How are you measuring 'mistrust' and why say it's too high here?

Quoting neomac
At this point partaking is not the problem, because there have been many negotiation sessions between Russians and Ukrainians, but they got stalled.


I'm not talking about Russia and Ukraine, I'm talking about all parties. That should include the US and Europe who are funding the war. they can't pretend to be innocent bystanders. Notwithstanding that, whether negotiations are taking place is not the question. Whether you support them is the question.

Quoting neomac
Putin’s dictatorial power extends over the last two decades so he could take all his time to prepare for this war and take effective decisions consistent with his goals, meanwhile in the US there have been five different administrations (including a philo-Putinist Trump) in loose coordination with an even greater number of changing and politically divided EU leaders and governments, decided also thanks to a growth of anti-globalist populism that Putin contributed to feed with his money and troll armies. So not exactly the same situation for responsibility ascriptions.


That assumes the power in America lies in the various ventriloquist dolls chosen to act as mouthpieces for the vast industries which run America.

Quoting neomac
Sure, then again the West tries to help the oppressed by delivering weapons instead of trying to help the oppressor.


Again, whether they 'try to help' is what's in question. Does a supply of weapons help? Is there any evidence that that's even the intention? A supply of weapons certainly boosts the profits of one of the most politically powerful industries in the world. Are you arguing that that's a coincidence?

Quoting neomac
No idea of the number of victims on both sides.


Then by what standard are you measuring? You seem pretty clear that Putin's tactic (a gross brutish bombs-and-guns approach) is morally worse than, say America's (a more sophisticated economic domination causing death by famines, ill-health, and 'collateral damage' in their proxy wars). If it's not the numbers of people killed or immiserated, then what? Are Putin's methods just to uncouth? Do you prefer a more sophisticated murderer?

Quoting neomac
What am I supposed to do with that? What evidence to you have?

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/04/are-ukrainian-values-closer-to-russia-or-to-europe/


That's better. I don't see in there evidence that Ukraine clearly has more open views on standards of life than Russia. I see a complex picture. Views on homosexuality, for example.

Quoting neomac
you just repeated Putin’s demands and related blackmails without considering Ukrainian demands at all.


I know, that's why I said them. Those are the demands on the table at the moment, so of course they're Putin's. The argument was that they don't push Russian expansionism futher. They are the de facto positions already.

Quoting neomac
Therefore you do not care to offer an opposing strategy against Russian terroristic expansionism


Why would that lead from caring more about civilian lives?

Quoting neomac
Who is us? I didn’t throw anybody under tanks. And the antecedent of that conditional is false. Nothing to explain here.


I'm dissecting your support. Do you support those who do?

Quoting neomac
Western leaders have moral reasons to contrast Putin offensive expansionism the best they can, as long as they can.


Again, it's methods, not reasons. Just because we have a moral reason to oppose Putin's expansionism, doesn't' give us free reign to do so by any method available.

Quoting neomac
Concerning “methods”, I simply claimed they have moral implications and therefore I take them into account: a stick and carrot strategy (a mix of incentives and deterrence) may be morally more defensible than a full blown-war as in this case.


Yes, but that's why the US's tactics in Yemen matter, because you're claiming to "take them into account". Where have you 'taken into account' the fact that the US and Europe are responsible for tens of thousands of deaths too? So wherefore the moral justification for choosing their methods over Putin's?

Punshhh April 05, 2022 at 07:35 #677809
Reply to Benkei Andrew Levi co-led a UK diplomatic crisis response to Putin’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. I’m not sure what he’s done recently, but is occasionally interviewed in the media on the motives and ideology of Putin.
He arrived at his view of Putin during that mission and tried to warn the British government about Putin at the time and was largely ignored.

What I’m interested in is how this interpretation might inform an assessment of what Putin will do as the war escalates (if it does). I was thinking that if Putin is essentially a mafia boss, he is less likely to press the button than if he is a mad man, or a megalomaniac. But will retreat while claiming victory, justification and victimhood in relation to the enemy. That his primary motivation and goal is to remain in power and autocratic control of Russia. That invading his neighbours is part of that strategy

Isaac April 05, 2022 at 07:47 #677813
Quoting Christoffer
I said nothing of that, that's your words.


I see. So from what non-western source did you anticipate this 'education' coming. Which textbooks of say, Senegalese, origin were you thinking of?

Quoting Christoffer
So you mean that critical thinking, the process of being able to be unbiased and rational in reasoning is not part of a quality education?


What 'specialist equipment' is required to investigate critical thinking?

Quoting Christoffer
you seem to miss that philosophy is pretty much built upon methods to make sure you don't get stuck in biases


No. Again, I disagree that philosophy is built on methods to make sure you don't get stuck in biases.

Quoting Christoffer
What actual knowledge in psychology do you really have to propose that "thinking" requires nothing?


Well I'm a professor of Psychology - so there's that.

Quoting Christoffer
Thinking in of itself, even with a high intellect means nothing without the knowledge of how to structure such thoughts into reasonable and logical arguments.


And your evidence for this would be?

Quoting Christoffer
Education enables tools of thought for examining one's own pre-existing concepts and ideas, it enables you to realize just how little you know. The way you're describing it is extremely naive and excludes every basic knowledge of how psychology in sociological terms works.


Well, if it's so naive then there's something very wrong with the recruitment strategy of England's major Universities.

Quoting Christoffer
limiting the ability to gain access to tools of thought that make you able to think critically.


By claiming that native education methods limit this access you are claiming that these 'tools' only exist outside of these cultures. That is the racist element. Why do these tools only exist outside of these cultures?

Quoting Christoffer
Chernobyl was a globally known incident


Known to you. I know about Liverpool's chemical waste dump.

Quoting Christoffer
If "western" is just America I would agree with a shitload of what you say, but it's become a strawman for your arguments so I can't take it seriously.


Of course America is not the sole representative of 'the West', but it is a significant power. So when you say 'westernise' that could lead either to Sweden or America. What prevents one route and promotes the other? Not 'western' values clearly - they're represented by both.

Quoting Christoffer
if I say "quality education", I mean neutral education, I mean free of propaganda, even western propaganda


Right. So what Senegalese thinkers were included in your oh-so-non-westernised education?

Quoting Christoffer
What exactly do you disagree with in that text?? That good quality, neutral education, that enables people to see unbiased facts, different perspectives, concepts of how to think with deduction and induction... is not giving someone the tools to think critically and without bias?


Yes. That's exactly what I disagree with.

Quoting Christoffer
What exactly do you not agree with? Or are you saying... on a philosophy forum... that the concept of philosophy itself is bullshit?


Yes. Again, that something seems to you to be the case does not mean it actually is the case. Your incredulity is not an argument.

Quoting Christoffer
Are learning facts a universal human constant of gaining knowledge?


Yes.

Quoting Christoffer
Is a high level of knowledge required to reach wisdom?


No.

Quoting Christoffer
Is wisdom not needed to be able to internally pitch different perspectives against each other to induce a probable truth?


Yes.

Quoting Christoffer
you don't even understand that my idea of quality; unbiased education is about gaining the ability to see different perspectives. It's the core point of how to be able to think critically.


I perfectly well understand it. I disagree with it.

Quoting Christoffer
when I see children in schools funded by charities, when I see the hope in their eyes of getting doors opened to do things in their life and not just be victims of poverty and politics, then I feel hope, because the actual people of the country gain the knowledge to do something and not just have to wait for whatever political problems that is going on or whatever political boot the west push down on them.


Since education and development aid, growth in fair trade, reduction of debt, withdrawal of support for corrupt regimes...all tend to go hand-in hand. I don't see how you could present any evidence that it was the education that did it.

Quoting Christoffer
Have you not even had the thought that if there's a western boot pressing them down and not enabling them to rise up against it, a quality education, neutral education that grants them the knowledge to act against that boot might just be the solution to getting rid of that boot?


How? Explain the mechanism. We have the 'boot' of trade tariffs, pecuniary aid terms, environmental pressures, military power imbalances, arms sales to oppressive governments, political power being abused for financial gain, TNCs exploiting cheap labour... then you give the children of the country a good Western education and then...? What? How does knowing about Plato sort all those problems out? Talk me through the process.

Quoting Christoffer
Giving access to ... methods of unbiased thinking, which is my core point.


Exactly. Why didn't they already have access to methods of unbiased thinking from their own rich cultural heritage? What was wrong with them, that they didn't come up with these 'methods' already? They certainly didn't need any specialist technology. They had more time than we had. So explain to me, in non-racist terms, why these cultures (which have had longer to think about it than we have) don't already have these 'methods of unbiased thinking'?

Quoting Christoffer
if I teach someone how to do proper deductions, that has nothing to do with anything other than logically fine-tuning thinking itself to better reach valid conclusions. That is a universal method for human beings to bypass bias and is critical for anyone wanting to reach beyond set ideas.


If it is universal, then why is it not already part of their culture? Why is it not already passed down from parent to child, or cultural leader to children?

Isaac April 05, 2022 at 08:01 #677814
Quoting Christoffer
If they are in a dire position, if they are suffering, if there's something fundamentally broken with their government that makes them suffer, then we shouldn't give a fuck. That's your argument. That's your simple conclusion to all of this.


How? You've suggested education. I disagree, so suddenly I'm saying we should do nothing? How on earth have you arrived at the conclusion that anything that isn't education is 'nothing'?

Quoting Christoffer
If I present an actual real-world solution, right now, as a pragmatic and practical thing that can actually be done;


You haven't. You've just vaguely waived about the words 'education' and 'westernised'. I could counter by vaguely waiving about the terms 'socialism' and 'worker's revolution'.

Quoting Christoffer
Here's my suggestion for westernized Russia. Implement social democracy, write a constitution with a strong focus on the protection of people's right to free speech, implement laws that protect independent media, and have state media be just funded by taxes, but ruled by constitutional law to be a critical entity of the government, free from any capitalist biases. Have a great form of welfare, either direct or through basic income, and have active organizations for anti-corruption work, much like Ukraine has had and successfully reduced corruption with. Outside of that, let them have a free market in order to engage internationally if they want.


Right.

My suggestion is exactly the same without the so-called 'free' market, and with worker-owned means of production.

What's on offer right now is none of the things we actually agree on and just the one we disagree on. What's being offered to Ukraine is western financial support in return for a reduction in social welfare, an increase in elite ownership over the means of production, and an opening up of markets.

Benkei April 05, 2022 at 09:42 #677825
Quoting Punshhh
Andrew Levi co-led a UK diplomatic crisis response to Putin’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. I’m not sure what he’s done recently, but is occasionally interviewed in the media on the motives and ideology of Putin.
He arrived at his view of Putin during that mission and tried to warn the British government about Putin at the time and was largely ignored.


So he's never met Putin but feels qualified to make a psychological profile. Got it. Sorry man, I just can't appreciate a guy who tweets in 10 different language that there can be no peace with Russia unless it changes fundamentally. We could say the same thing about the US. There can't be peace in the world until the US changes fundamentally. And of course it is bullshit and nothing more than a self-fulfilling prophecy. Let's treat Russia like an enemy because I made my mind up that they are an enemy.

It's also neither here nor there. If we want peace, if we want to stop the killing now, we need to go through the Russia that is now and the way it is under Putin. And secretly of course the wish for "fundamental change" is for Russia to roll over and accept US hegemony and pretend it doesn't have any interests or rights other than those that exactly align with what the UK/US want them to be.

In my humble opinion, the man is obviously unfit to work as a diplomat.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 09:54 #677829
Quoting Isaac
Ukrainian children die. They didn't get a say in the matter.


The more the Russians murder innocent bystanders, children, grandmothers and the likes, the more hospitals, maternities and supermarket they bomb , the harder it will be to make any lasting peace. Ukrainians will never forgive such a behavior from their neighbours. I think they could forgive the war, being attacked for nothing, but not the massacre of defenseless innocents. Russian heads will have to roll now.
ssu April 05, 2022 at 11:42 #677844
Quoting Olivier5
The more the Russians murder innocent bystanders, children, grandmothers and the likes, the more hospitals, maternities and supermarket they bomb , the harder it will be to make any lasting peace. Ukrainians will never forgive such a behavior from their neighbours. I think they could forgive the war, being attacked for nothing, but not the massacre of defenseless innocents. Russian heads will have to roll now.


Quoting Benkei
There's plenty of anti-Americanism going around and hypocrisy is one of the first thing spoken about. How can they complain about human rights abuses when they had their renditions, water boarding and torture, Abu Ghraib? How can they complain about aggression when we had aggression in Iraq and Afghanistan and Pakistan?


At least there are differences. The most obvious difference between US warfighting and Russian warfighting is simply scale as history has shown. At least the US is officially against attrocities, understands that violence towards civilians is simply counterproductive in a war and even will go as far as court martial it's own soldiers. That doesn't mean that warcrimes don't happen and cannot be just waived of individual incidents when orders haven't been followed (like when taking the disastrous tactic of using body counts as indicators of how well a war is fought in Vietnam). My Lai or the Haditha massacre in the Iraq war are examples done from the US.

On the other hand the Russians have what is called "tactical truth": lying to achieve your objectives, which is totally acceptable. It's not a denial like the Americans would do (usually referring to poor judgement of individual soldiers if civilians are killed), but categorical denial of everything and then a prolonged campaign to tarnish, ridicule and confuse everything about some event. And once there is that confusion, ignorance of the facts (that only later with more accurate historical investigation can be shown), works splendidly. The shooting down of the MH17 in southern Ukraine is an example of this. The facts are quite evident now after a long investigation, but due to ignorance it's easy to voice doubts over who was responsible of the shooting.

One can see it happening here with Bucha:

(TASS) Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov slammed the situation in the Ukrainian town of Bucha as fake attack. According to him, a fake attack was staged there, which Ukraine and the West disperse through all channels and social networks.


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And there's enough of useful idiots around then to confuse the issue and go along with the idea that everything was staged. Likely there's going to be the argument that Ukrainians staged this in order to get more sanctions put at Russia and to get more aid.

The Russian doctrine of heavy use of firepower and the absolute lack of care about the Russian soldiers by the Russian armed forces also lowers moral of the soldiers creates the situation where civilian casualties are high and attrocities can happen. Starting from things like the soldiers being drunk. The rhetoric of fighting against Nazis doesn't help this or the fact that the Russian forces have sustained a lot of casualties themselves. The use of excessive firepower in urban warfare is a way to minimize own casualties, yet it brings far more destruction than different strategies would cause.

How high the death toll in Mariupol will be remains to be seen.

Isaac April 05, 2022 at 11:57 #677846
Quoting Olivier5
The more the Russians murder innocent bystanders, children, grandmothers and the likes, the more hospitals, maternities and supermarket they bomb , the harder it will be to make any lasting peace. Ukrainians will never forgive such a behavior from their neighbours. I think they could forgive the war, being attacked for nothing, but not the massacre of defenseless innocents.


You're right.

What that's got to do with the comment you cited, which was about the morality of fighting for universals such as 'national identity', I'm afraid I've no idea.
ssu April 05, 2022 at 12:19 #677851
Quoting Isaac
What that's got to do with the comment you cited, which was about the morality of fighting for universals such as 'national identity', I'm afraid I've no idea.


When you are killed as an Ukrainian nazi, A Chechen islamist terrorist or a Syrian jihadist... or a supporter of them, you don't choose yourself that "national" identity. The guy who shoots you has decided that on behalf of you.
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 12:25 #677852
Quoting ssu
When you are killed as an Ukrainian nazi, A Chechen islamist terrorist or a Syrian jihadist... or a supporter of them, you don't choose yourself that "national" identity. The guy who shoots you has decided that on behalf of you.


None of those are national identities. They're all choices to join certain groups. I'm English, but I'm not going to commit others to war just to remain that way. I'll be Russian instead.

The point was simply that the 'national identity' argument doesn't have any moral force. There's no moral element to wanting to be Ukrainian instead of Russian.
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 12:31 #677854
Quoting ssu
The facts are quite evident now after a long investigation, but due to ignorance it's easy to voice doubts over who was responsible of the shooting.

One can see it happening here with Bucha:


You self evidently can't.

You just don't seem to get it, you don't see your role in this. You are one of the useful idiots.

1. Commit atrocity
2. Tell the world you didn't, and everyone who says you did is lying, western propaganda.
3. People like you point out that the (weak) evidence of their atrocities should always be taken at face value, any discussion of it is 'conspiracy theory' and dispute nothing but apologetics for the perpetrators.
4. The perpetrators say "see, look at the propaganda methods they're using"

Your attitude just serves their agenda.

If you want to fight against a side using propaganda to cover up crimes, and claiming that you're using propaganda to lie about them don't do exactly the thing they're claiming you do.
boethius April 05, 2022 at 12:42 #677856
Quoting ssu
And there's enough of useful idiots around then to confuse the issue and go along with the idea that everything was staged. Likely there's going to be the argument that Ukrainians staged this in order to get more sanctions put at Russia and to get more aid.


As @Benkei (an actual lawyer) has already pointed out, there does need to be some sort of credible investigation, chance for the accused to defend themselves, and, ideally, some sort of impartial trial to determine war crimes, or crimes in general.

Additionally, war crimes by individual soldiers or units (which I do not doubt has happened; it's essentially guaranteed in any war) do not automatically translate to being war crimes of the military or the government. It must be some sort of institutionalised policy or direct order.

However, an additional reason to reserve judgement and not break out the jump to conclusions mat, is the Russians may have exculpatory video evidence.

And the Russian's generally like to present what evidence they do have in whatever legal process it is, such as the evidence about the biolabs at the UN security meeting. The longer false-accusations are made, the more impact exculpatory evidence has, so waiting for the "proper" legal time serves this purpose. Not to say they have exculpatory evidence, just when they do the Kremlin's policy is to reveal it later, as then their accusers (i.e. the West) loses credibility (certainly for the purposes of muddying the waters when they are actually guilty as charged).

It should also be kept in mind that the Ukrainian strategy has been to garner sympathy with civilian casualties by not evacuating them from war zones and even giving them automatic weapons instead. So, it cannot simply be denied that there would be a motivation to create more atrocities if the Russian shelling wasn't enough (which, as horrible as it is, wasn't enough in terms of a no-fly zone). And, there are literal neo-Nazi organisations operating in Ukraine, and I definitely don't put anything past them in terms of treachery and immorality.

What is pause for thought though, is not only Western media automatically interpreting these tied dead civilians as executions by Russians (without any investigation, just circumstantial) ... but when there was many reports and even actual video evidence of Ukrainians executing alleged Russian spies, this was taken at face value as just executing saboteurs to "deal with them".

Why do we not extend the benefit of the doubt to the Russians and simply assume if they did execute all these people, they were spies and saboteurs and could be summarily executive in the same insane process as the Ukrainians have been executing people?
frank April 05, 2022 at 12:54 #677857
Reply to Olivier5 Reply to ssu

I'm trying to understand people who are quick to defend Russia. I mean people like Benkei, who may not qualify as apologist, but seems to jump to defend Putin in a way he wouldn't for other leaders, particularly an American president.

What is behind that? Does it come down to anti-American sentiment where any enemy of the US is a friend? If not, then what? Do you have an idea?

Benkei April 05, 2022 at 12:59 #677858
Quoting ssu
At least the US is officially against attrocities, understands that violence towards civilians is simply counterproductive in a war and even will go as far as court martial it's own soldiers.


They will throw soldiers under the bus when a politician's ass needs to be saved. Other than that I find your optimism misplaced. Nagasaki and Hiroshima and the fire bombing of Tokyo ring a bell? How many were court martialed? Iraq? Afghanistan? Libya? Kosovo? Anything? Torture and renditions? What's Cheney doing nowadays anyway?

And the US' allies are complicit in going along with these farces.

So when the US officially states something we should believe it instead of calling it out for the lies they are but everything out of Putin’s mouth is a lie? How much cool aid did you drink?

Reply to frank Why don't you quote me where I defend him?
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 12:59 #677860
Quoting Isaac
What that's got to do with the comment you cited, which was about the morality of fighting for universals such as 'national identity', I'm afraid I've no idea.


It has got something to do with the fact that it's not the Ukrainian government who is killing those children, nor the 'West'. It is Russia. And that they would go as far as killing totally innocent and defenseless people to "apply pressure" on the Ukrainian government (to use a phrase our local mage @boethius likes a lot) says a lot about who they are: they are slaves, used to submit to force, and unable to even understand the concept of revolt against force.

But their use of force against the weakest of the weak is backfiring. They THINK that the more hospitals they bomb, the more submissive the Ukrainians will be, but the opposite is happening: it makes the Ukrainians more angry. And now the Russian foreign minister complains that the Ukrainian side is 'difficult' in those negotiations. Oh yeah? What did you slaves expect?
frank April 05, 2022 at 13:00 #677861
Quoting Benkei
Why don't you quote me where I defend him?


I wasn't attacking you. I'm trying to understand people like you. If you have any helpful hints, I'd appreciate it.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 13:02 #677863
Reply to frank I suspect one of them is doing it for the money.
frank April 05, 2022 at 13:03 #677865
Quoting Olivier5
I suspect one of them is doing it for the money.


I meant people like that in general.
boethius April 05, 2022 at 13:03 #677866
Quoting frank
I'm trying to understand people who are quick to defend Russia. I mean people like Benkei, who may not qualify as apologist, but seems to jump to defend Putin in a way he wouldn't for other leaders, particularly an American president.


I can't speak for @Benkei but he may have some bizarre legal idea that both sides of a dispute deserve to be heard, which you interpret as defending one side because that side is already guilty without hearing their point of view or verifying any facts.

If Western media is blaring 24/7 their accusations against the Russians, maybe focusing on those as "maybe true" (which, certainly many are "maybe true") serves no further purpose at some point than to repeat propaganda, but that representing the other side of things, indeed even mentioning that it may exist, is required for clear thinking.

Likewise, if the same Western media automatically gives the benefit of the doubt and simply straight up ignores Bush's crimes, many documented without any dispute about the evidence whatsoever and including straight up confessions by the head of state of the US government! ("So we tortured some folks"); so, again, maybe for the principle of fairness the other side of the story should be heard.

You are arguing from a false equivalence that we have already heard each side of the issue, we already know all the facts, and are simply deciding who we support morally without needing to make decisions or formulate policy: i.e. that if "Putin is bad" is one's moral opinion given the undisputed facts that are already established, then repeating that is the terminus of the critical thinking process.

For example, what I am completely convinced of is that children in Ukraine are certainly innocent and do not deserve to be killed, maimed and traumatised. I have mentioned this is and it's my emotional motivation to contribute analysis in the hopes of a resolution and end to the war.

However, if I did no analysis, just repeated "children don't deserve to be harmed or killed" again and again and again ... at some point I am not serving those Ukrainian children's interests but my own emotions and people would just say "yeah, we get it, we don't like seeing children harmed either, but just saying so doesn't end the war." And if I continue and engage in none of the discussions about the military or political situation and decisions different parties can actually make, at some point I'd be accused of virtue signalling by only repeating the innocent and morally righteous case of the children in Ukraine.
frank April 05, 2022 at 13:07 #677867
Quoting boethius
can't speak for Benkei but he may have some bizarre legal idea that both sides of a dispute deserve to be heard


But he wouldn't have that attitude if the culprit was American. He'd happily go in the other direction of being as unfair as possible (I think).

So I don't think it's a matter of valuing fairness.
boethius April 05, 2022 at 13:14 #677870
Quoting frank
But he wouldn't have that attitude if the culprit was American. He'd happily go in the other direction of being as unfair as possible (I think).


Because billions of dollars are already spent to make the case to defend the American president, there's zero need to "make it more".

Likewise, the case against Putin is already made extremely loudly and we're all expected to accept the verdict is already in.

Lastly, as Westerners we can affect Western policies, we can't affect much Russian or Chinese policies.

Sure, worse there than here ... but I don't see what I can do about that except through affecting Western policies, which requires scrutiny and criticism of Western institutions and power brokers.

Quoting frank
So I don't think it's a matter of valuing fairness.


This is exactly the false equivalence I point out.

The conditions going into a debate are not somehow preordained to be equal and different perspectives already equally heard, and we all have unlimited time to defend each case and develop every possible accusation.

If billions of dollars are already spent defending one perspective, I am not being fair by apportioning my time and energy equally to unequally represented parties.

For example, I say several times I am trying to represent the Russian perspective because the Western media and Ukrainian case is already repeated pretty loudly.

If it was the reverse, that everyone agrees with the Russians and doesn't understand why Ukrainians are fighting, calling them irrational, and cheering the Russians on to crush them, I'd present the Ukrainian perspective instead, try to understand them (their passion to defend their land) in hopes of a diplomatic resolution.

Now, if it's true, Ukrainian righteousness and the decision to fight a good one and it's true that the Russians are evil ... ok, go fight. Get in there NATO.

However, the problem is that even if it is true NATO is not going to fight and Ukrainians aren't going to defeat Russia (impose their conditions on Russia by force).

So ... even according to the Western narrative there is no military solution to achieve Ukrainian's just cause.

Conclusion: either Russia is going to win, or then there will be some diplomatic resolution at some point; the sooner the better, and diplomacy is not possible by only considering one side of an issue.
frank April 05, 2022 at 13:18 #677871
Reply to boethius I see. I think you might be affected by media that I'm not exposed to.

Do you watch televised news?
boethius April 05, 2022 at 13:27 #677873
Quoting frank
I see. I think you might be affected by media that I'm not exposed to.


Sure, if all you read is this forum, then maybe it seems the case isn't made enough against Putin.

Quoting frank
Do you watch televised news?


I do not have a television, but I follow the major news outlets and aggregators to get an idea of what the mass media is saying.

How things are perceived and what the mass media is saying is a critical part of geo-political analysis.

Unfortunately, due to algorithm driven media, we basically no longer know what information "people" encounter in a general sense. There's no longer "the news paper" that everyone who discussed politics or world events would read as a common reference.

The "mass media" is more now a conversation with bureaucrats and technocrats and most ordinary people ignore it.

Indeed, mass media is no longer the best term, but "establishment news", whereas facebook, instagram, twitter, youtube and Tictok "personalised algorithms" are the actual mass media now.

So, I do agree it's hard to actually know what the real mass social media is even saying to most people, we can only really follow CNN, Reuters, BBC, Aljezera, al Jazeera, Times, Fox, Bloomberg, and co. to see at least what elites and bureaucrats are exposed to.
Benkei April 05, 2022 at 13:28 #677874
Reply to frank It's relatively simple, where it concerns Ukraine Russia and USA have been fighting each other over Ukraine for decades. In my view both parties are guilty, and to a lesser extent European governments for being useful idiots in looking away. To get a fuller picture I don't need to highlight what Russia has done, plenty of people already do that, which for some reason a lot of people interpret as a defence for Putin. Quite obviously just because more people are to blame, doesn't make Putin blameless. Much like how a murderer cannot excuse his crimes by pointing to another murderer.

The reason why you think I don't have that attitude with respect to the USA is because too many people pretend it's a force for good. So there, to get a fuller picture again, I need to remind people what a shit country it is. From the way it treats its own citizens to its international acts.
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 13:31 #677875
Reply to Olivier5

I see. So nothing to do with the comment you cited then. Perhaps consider just making a fresh post next time, rather than opening with a completely unrelated comment?
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 13:38 #677877
Quoting frank
I'm trying to understand people who are quick to defend Russia.


The answers have been given over and over.

1. That Putin's actions are awful is a) obvious and b) all over every form of media in the western world. Why do we need to repeat that every third word?

2. We're almost all either American, European or allies of those blocs. The policies we can influence are their policies, the power we can hold to account are their governments. We have virtually no line of influence to Russia so what would be the point in criticising those policies?

3. America and Europe are a crucial part of any solution. If you're comparing options it vital to be aware of who you're dealing with.

4. Not everyone feels an overwhelming compulsion to inform the world at large how they're feeling every thirty seconds.
frank April 05, 2022 at 13:47 #677880
Reply to Benkei So if you presented a balanced attitude about the US and Russia, you think you'd be contributing to an overall unbalanced narrative that's in the world?

You see yourself as having an obligation to create balance by being biased in both cases, in favor of understanding Russia and condemning the US.

Is that right?
FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 13:55 #677881
Quoting ssu
One can see it happening here with Bucha:


Whoever committed the crimes at Bucha, I am not interested in defending them. One thing I must point out is the photographs of more or less evenly spaced out bodies looks suspicious to me. All of them by the roadside, where they can be clearly seen, and photographed from above for effect.

You have to realize I have no way of knowing what those photographs represent, who took them, and when. Impossible. I have to trust someone's version of events.
Deleted User April 05, 2022 at 13:58 #677882
Quoting Benkei
The reason why you think I don't have that attitude with respect to the USA is because too many people pretend it's a force for good. So there, to get a fuller picture again, I need to remind people what a shit country it is. From the way it treats its own citizens to its international acts.


Just filling in the blanks.


Not a peep from our public school system about the American Empire, the blood on our hands. They talk about a city on a hill. Fake news goes back to Gilgamesh. (They were first king who first learned the Big Lie.)



Or possibly things have changed since my elementary school days.
frank April 05, 2022 at 14:04 #677883
Quoting Benkei
The reason why you think I don't have that attitude with respect to the USA is because too many people pretend it's a force for good.


I think I might understand what's going on.

Americans don't see the US the way you do. It's just our home. The rest of the world is like a big glob of non-American. Sort of.

I don't have access to the view you have where there's an unbalanced message wrt the US and Russia. For me, all narratives are internal, American narratives, whether critical, nationalistic, or just flat (as much as there is any unbiased point of view.)

I don't need to worry about balance. So most of the stuff you're saying is just misunderstood by me. I don't have the same concerns you do, so I don't get the intent.

Thanks! That actually helped.
frank April 05, 2022 at 14:06 #677884
Quoting ZzzoneiroCosm
Not a peep from the public school system about the American Empire, the blood on our hands.


Depends on the teacher.
Benkei April 05, 2022 at 14:10 #677885
Reply to frank I admit to highlighting a particular view when I believe it broadens the context. I would do the same when talking about the Netherlands but unfortunately nobody here is interested in my little country.

Reply to frank Edit: just as examples here, we have plenty of institutional racism with nowadays zero political consequences for those responsible. Growing inequality. Deconstruction of the welfare state. Etc. That's all the center right politics. Then I have a ton to say about the left's inability to have a coherent alternative narrative. I don't believe in identity politics, still think it's about class struggle in the end where nowadays politics is coopted by corporations, making the struggle for socio-economic fairness that much harder.
frank April 05, 2022 at 14:12 #677886
Quoting Benkei
I admit to highlighting a particular view when I believe it broadens the context. I would do the same when talking about the Netherlands but unfortunately nobody here is interested in my little country.


I understand. I actually am interested. You guys just haven't invaded anybody recently. :smile:
FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 14:12 #677887
I am not sure that the following possibilities have been addressed:

1. Despite the rhetoric, it is possible that certain behind the scenes agreements may have been taking place here, negotiations that are not only not reported by the news media, but would change the context of the entire situation, and which we will never know.

2. Since no-one is a perfect actor, and no-one is infallible, some of the truth may slip out from time to time especially in real-time interviews. Zelenskyy is the one to watch here.

3. When a particular course of action is taken, for example Fox news has a general on saying "Biden wants Putin to win" it is more probably due to low intelligence + some sort of a plan than due to pure stupidity.

Just a note about Zelenskyy: I don't get it: Why does he not say straight out to NATO: look: give us the weapons we need to win this war or we are going to surrender in 24 hours, and we will be turning back all weapons at the border. Am I missing something?

How would that work?
Benkei April 05, 2022 at 14:15 #677888
Reply to frank Cool. Appreciate it.
Christoffer April 05, 2022 at 14:29 #677889
Quoting Isaac
I see. So from what non-western source did you anticipate this 'education' coming. Which textbooks of say, Senegalese, origin were you thinking of?


Education is usually formed in collaboration with the people it is for. It is entirely possible to create a curriculum that is unique to the place the school is being built.

Quoting Isaac
What 'specialist equipment' is required to investigate critical thinking?


What "equipment" are you referring to? It's like saying you need "special equipment" to teach 2 + 2 = 4.

Quoting Isaac
No. Again, I disagree that philosophy is built on methods to make sure you don't get stuck in biases.


Philosophically speaking, that is not enough as a counterargument. Your disagreement is irrelevant if you don't have any explanation showing the opposite. Bad philosophy might get you stuck into biases, we see enough of that on this forum that's for sure, but if you are educated in even basic philosophy, there are plenty of tools for thought to use when the goal is to investigate a probable truth. And for general education, basic philosophy is enough; how to structure an argument by examining beyond the pre-existing belief of the one examining.

Quoting Isaac
Well I'm a professor of Psychology - so there's that.


So you do know about biases in thought then? You understand that "thinking" is never uninfluenced by the surrounding world? That it's not enough to just "think differently", and that the only way to bypass our biased thinking is through methods of critical thinking.

I'm a bit stunned that a professor of psychology seems to suggest that there are no problems with people just following their parents' ideas and ideals. Because that has a good track record of fixing problems for people throughout history. That is not psychology, that is conservative ideology.

Quoting Isaac
And your evidence for this would be?


Logic.

You need to build a house. You have a high intellect, but you have no knowledge of how to build a house. Would you A) Be able to use your high intelligence to figure it out? or B) Need the gathered knowledge of other people on the topic of building a house to be able to build it?

If you answer A, you might be able to go far, but when some higher knowledge becomes required, like how moisture in the ground affects the foundation and that it might require specific precautions to prevent rot, maybe even a specially built foundation because of the specific soil the house is built on, you fail. That knowledge requires facts to be learned before building the house. It is therefore impossible to effectively and properly build that house without you learning more about how to do so.

The same goes for critical thinking. If you have no knowledge of the mental traps of biases you get into when trying to figure out concepts or solutions to problems, then you will more easily fall into those traps. This isn't something that just exists in nations in need of better and less politically influenced education, but it exists everywhere. Just the last ten years have introduced higher critical thinking into the curriculum of schools in Sweden. But this is much more important for people living in nations with a high degree of extreme propaganda. Where media blatantly lies and group think traditions have taken roots.

If you have a macro problem to solve and you are highly intelligent, but you are unaware of how the mind works, you are unaware of the knowledge about how cognitive biases functions and have no knowledge of the philosophical basics required to bypass all of it through critical thinking. Do you A) Just use your high intelligence and be able to solve it? Or B) Use tested and established methods to figure out a solution uninfluenced by your cognitive biases?

What is most likely the best outcome of that? And if enough people get an education with this knowledge, don't you, logically, agree that it forms a better foundation of collective thought to fix a macro problem for that large group of people?

Education doesn't magically solve a problem in a nation, but it gives the people the knowledge tools to effectively shape their own change and reforms. It sharpens their intellect to be used more effectively and faster than having to invent the wheel over and over.

Quoting Isaac
Well, if it's so naive then there's something very wrong with the recruitment strategy of England's major Universities.


I answered to this strawman you made:

Quoting Isaac
people in these countries have simply failed to work it out for themselves, they need us to teach them, they can't, parent-to-child, simply teach their own children how to be good citizens, they need us to come along and show them.


With the implication that there's no need for education, just let the parents teach their kids. In my perspective, that is how you keep a people stuck in traditions and more easily keep them in control of authoritarian systems. Because if the authoritarian systems work under the guise of national tradition, it creates a feedback loop that never breaks and any destructive authoritarian regime could keep doing what they're doing as there's no alternative way to break free of it by the people. North Korea is a good example of this.

Quoting Isaac
By claiming that native education methods limit this access you are claiming that these 'tools' only exist outside of these cultures. That is the racist element. Why do these tools only exist outside of these cultures?


You're making the racist conjecture by dividing everything into a clear us and them where they have some magical alternative to western thinking and also that western thinking is some singular entity of idealogy and opinions, exactly the kind of simplistic viewpoints that Hans Rosling opposed the west to have. It is entirely possible, as mentioned before, to structure a curriculum in nations with low to no educational systems, to be entirely based on that nation's culture. However, a good quality education also teaches about other perspectives in the world, it's part of broadening knowledge. And when it comes to critical thinking, methods of logical deduction, and induction, those are close to universal methods of math, but for structuring arguments and conceptual ideas. And what about facts? Like facts of building a house as in my analogy? If one part of the world has developed a lot of factual data about effective house building, then that data is objectively good for everyone to know. Most of the time educational content forms as a synthesis of previous knowledge, and from all over the world.

The problem is that you are viewing education as indoctrination, not learning skills and knowledge. You base your argument around how the west reshapes third-world countries by establishing schools with western thinking. This is not how things are done. Schools in these nations are primarily run by teachers from that nation itself. Starting off with teaching reading, writing, math, and universal skills like that. Do you think that beyond the basics, they don't include things like philosophy rooted in their own nation?

The problem is that you structure your entire argument around a strawman that I argue for invading these nations with western education. And then you are unable to think past this and realize that I'm not doing that, that I'm arguing for education, quality education in a shape and form that is free from political influence of any kind. That focuses on knowledge from all over the world that is a synthesis of all the best knowledge, facts, and methods that humanity as a whole has to offer.

This blind division between "the west" and third world that you force your arguments through is much more racist in rhetoric than you try to apply to my argument. And if they have a method of critical thinking that is better, I wish to hell that we can learn from that, so if you know about any such alternatives to the common logical methods used broadly across the world, then that would be wonderful to learn. I'm just going by what is known right now about logical thinking that bypasses cognitive biases. And that these are powerful tools of thought that is effectively piercing through propaganda more easily than any traditional thinking learned from parents to children within authoritarian nations filled with groupthink problems.

Quoting Isaac
Known to you. I know about Liverpool's chemical waste dump.


And Liverpool's chemical waste dump was not a threat to the entire region of Europe or reshaped the entire topic of nuclear power safety. Stop making attempts at a point that doesn't work. Chernobyl was a significant incident that is known throughout the world.

And you also fail tremendously with that point because Liverpool is in the UK and it's probably part of common knowledge within the UK, even for a smaller incident than Chernobyl. So by that logic you would assume that people within the same Soviet Union should know about Chernobyl, especially when the iron curtain fell and things were declassified and schools started teaching about history without propaganda. Or just basic chemistry or physics in grade school teaching about radioactivity. That people from Russia don't know about Chernobyl or how radioactive material from a failed nuclear power plant works, just proves my point of how important education is. Chernobyl could have made Russia uninhabitable. It was a major event that is still a dangerous risk and that knowledge isn't taught properly in Russia, or the soldiers who were there gave an insight into just how bad education is for many in Russia.

Quoting Isaac
Of course America is not the sole representative of 'the West', but it is a significant power. So when you say 'westernise' that could lead either to Sweden or America. What prevents one route and promotes the other? Not 'western' values clearly - they're represented by both.


What leads you to automatically gravitate towards the US as the form of "westernization" I talk about? Isn't that racist towards me as a Swede to automatically assume that I have no ability to form a westernized system based on Sweden and not the US? Also based on Sweden's tradition of charity and help to nations in need that is in no way close to the US or UK's use of charity as a form of imperialistic establishment in other nations?

Because instead of asking questions first about how I think it should work, you directly assume me to be a racist western imperialist of the US standard and you then argue accordingly. You see, this is what is wrong with you and your rhetoric.

Quoting Isaac
Right. So what Senegalese thinkers were included in your oh-so-non-westernised education?


If establishing a school in Senegal and building the curriculum, it will be a collaboration with the people of Senegal to form that education. If there are alternatives to logical and critical thinking by any thinkers in Senegal then that will be a great addition, maybe you should mention which ones you are thinking about? If I were to establish a school there, then maybe I would include Souleymane Bachir Diagne in the collaboration of building that curriculum and include teachings of Kocc Barma Fall as part of the general philosophical education. But most importantly, Senegal needs basic education since literacy is among the lowest in Africa. Here's a good example of how quality education can help the nation as a whole. If one of Kocc Barma Fall's most famous ideas was to reject foreign aid, then that should drive building up knowledge of food production and that kind of industry to help fight both poverty and food shortages. Such projects need people with education to establish those projects. Helping with establishing more schools and a curriculum in collaboration with the Senegal people is then a form of aid that doesn't make them dependent as servents (as Kocc Barma Fall's said), but able to reject aid and become totally independent from any kind of aid.

You see, you cannot just pick and choose a nation like that and try and make an argument that strawman my concept into some blanket solution for everywhere. The actual practice of establishing schools needs to be done in collaboration with the place it is being established in. But the knowledge of critical thinking I'm referring to is not some "westernized" idea, it has formed out of thousands of years of philosophy from all over the world, but established itself primarily within western philosophy as practice. That it is western philosophy does not equal it being an invasion of western culture, especially not if combined with philosophies of the nation the school is established within.

You think that because I write a summary of how education on critical thinking can form greater independence for the people by them having tools of thought to critically view and reform their own destiny as they like, there's no depth to the actual practice of how to do it?

This is a failure of thinking on your part, requiring the entire plan for establishing specific nations' educational systems or helping them establish them instead of understanding the foundational concept I presented. You aren't arguing in any rational or philosophically balanced way, you are biased towards your already established picture of me as a racist imperialistic pro-western spokesman and you reshape everything you read into that narrative. But that also informs me of why you cannot understand the concept I present because you seem so much a slave to your own biases that the concept of critical thinking seems foreign to you, you already have a bias in this discussion, a bias that makes you unable to see what I write in any other shape than your pre-existing viewpoint. Which becomes very ironic because of the topic of what I write here.

Quoting Isaac
Yes. That's exactly what I disagree with.


Ok, then elaborate on that disagreement because unestablished disagreement in itself is irrelevant to the discussion.

Quoting Isaac
What exactly do you not agree with? Or are you saying... on a philosophy forum... that the concept of philosophy itself is bullshit?
— Christoffer

Yes. Again, that something seems to you to be the case does not mean it actually is the case. Your incredulity is not an argument.


Yes - that philosophy is bullshit? For a professor at a University, you write pretty badly if you don't see the error in reference here. I guess you don't mean that because that would be fundamentally stupid.

But in terms of "the case" I've spent a lot of time presenting "that case", you presented nothing but conjecture with loaded terms like calling things racist and just disagreeing without elaboration of that disagreement. As well as strawmen, false dichotomies etc.

Quoting Isaac
Is a high level of knowledge required to reach wisdom?
— Christoffer

No.


If a high level of knowledge means knowing a lot about much, it is. Wisdom is combining pure knowledge and facts into balanced ideas.

Quoting Isaac
you don't even understand that my idea of quality; unbiased education is about gaining the ability to see different perspectives. It's the core point of how to be able to think critically.
— Christoffer

I perfectly well understand it. I disagree with it.


Elaborate on the disagreement.

You don't agree that gaining knowledge through unbiased education enables an increase in the amount of knowledge you have, which through the quantity of knowledge enables more perspectives to be known and more perspectives to be viewed at the same time to form an unbiased critical view and increase wisdom about a topic?

What is it that you don't agree with? Are you unable to form an explanation for this disagreement?

Quoting Isaac
Since education and development aid, growth in fair trade, reduction of debt, withdrawal of support for corrupt regimes...all tend to go hand-in hand. I don't see how you could present any evidence that it was the education that did it.


I don't, it is a part of it, but you cannot start change if people aren't educated enough to act upon the change they want. The things you mention starts with people well educated to handle those things and if the people handling those things are the educated people of the nation doing these changes and not outsiders, they have become independent of outside help. The most effective way, as I've been saying over and over, to help people become independent from any outsiders is to help them with education so that they can shape things themselves and not rely on outsiders to help them. Imagine a class of young adults who went through education and later higher education of water filtration science. That is far better than waiting for outsiders to come with water aid or water filtration aid. Then they have full control over fixing this problem and doing so in a way that benefits them entirely and independently, as in line with Kocc Barma Fall's will for the people not to become servents. Just as how I used the proverb you called racist.

Quoting Isaac
How? Explain the mechanism. We have the 'boot' of trade tariffs, pecuniary aid terms, environmental pressures, military power imbalances, arms sales to oppressive governments, political power being abused for financial gain, TNCs exploiting cheap labour... then you give the children of the country a good Western education and then...? What? How does knowing about Plato sort all those problems out? Talk me through the process.


Once again, see there how you reshape what I write to fit your worldview or your view of others' arguments to fit how you form your counterarguments. You seem unable to discuss anything without loading everything with that kind of a gun.

The specifics of this is how the people gain knowledge to critically review state propaganda. That was the foundation of my argument that has, through your wild outbursts grown into a more general topic. So going back to that foundation, critical thinking enables ways to spot unproven truths, state lies, and propaganda more easily and easily review them critically. If you understand how to break down and deconstruct "truths" around you, you could start seeing through state propaganda and work against it. If a nation like Russia, whose government and Putin rely heavily on state propaganda for the people to be kept in place, had problems keeping the propaganda narrative intact because too many citizens see through it and show criticism against it, then a huge part of the authoritarian machinery stops working. Some experts even say that the state propaganda in Russia is the main source of power for Putin and if it fails then Putin's regime will fail with it.

My point is that the power of the government is just as good as its ability to keep the public in its place. If education enforces the same state propaganda and villages and rural areas don't even have schools, then how would people even begin to know how to deconstruct what is told to them. And if they can barely read, how could they ever gain any knowledge to help them grasp the reality they're in?

You seem to argue that my argument of educational aid is "the only solution". It's not. But it's a powerful part of giving the people the power to fight back against the government. What else can they fight with? By not agreeing with the government, it's not as easy as it seems for the government to keep itself in power. If the machinery of a nation, the lifeblood that is the people, stops supporting the government's power, then soon or later that government will collapse. None of this is "easy" it can even be bloody and it all depends on what the people want. If they feel fine with the stability of the authoritarian government, they might just hold their heads down and hope to live a decent life, or they really want a change and act towards it.

But to say that education does not have a major part in empowering the people against their government or against corruption and propaganda is just not a valid conclusion without better justification as to why it isn't.

Quoting Isaac
Exactly. Why didn't they already have access to methods of unbiased thinking from their own rich cultural heritage? What was wrong with them, that they didn't come up with these 'methods' already? They certainly didn't need any specialist technology. They had more time than we had. So explain to me, in non-racist terms, why these cultures (which have had longer to think about it than we have) don't already have these 'methods of unbiased thinking'?


Maybe hundreds of years of imperial interference robbed them of the chance to through the course of time study these things compared to the comfort in western philosophical institutions who could spend lifetimes of time on a topic to develop and fine-tune it? Maybe geopolitical instabilities even without imperialistic interference pressed down free thinkers and unabled them to develop and fine-tune their philosophies? Just look at how the Islamic golden age lost practice after it ended and most of that knowledge went to other places in the world, but most regions over the course of hundreds of years fell back into strict religious practices. Why didn't they keep their practices of education that are so important even mentioned in the Quran as an important part of life?

So there are a lot of reasons why cultural heritage could suppress such knowledge, even if such knowledge was even a world standard many centuries ago. What the west has had is one of the longest periods of refining past knowledge, sciences, and philosophy. And even so, many of the discoveries in critical thinking is as accidental as discoveries in science. The right person at the right time reviews a specific text and forms a new idea of progressive thought. Western philosophy might just have been lucky over the thousands of years it has existed. But the most important part is that critical thinking is essentially analytical in nature and western philosophies have been for the most part analytical. If you are to review a stated truth, the analytical approach to reviewing that truth is far more effective for deconstructing it than anything else. It's the foundation for how science works.

As I've said, if there are critical thinking concepts that have been developed and work in different ways than in western philosophy, good. We could learn from that as well, just as we learned knowledge from the Islamic golden age, just as anyone learns by the experience and knowledge of others. The problem here is that you gather together everything with a "western" stamp on it and position it as an imperialistic invasion of other cultures. Not everything is like that. We could even argue that the Islamic golden age is a huge historical foundation of western philosophy and that we just picked up the torch and if that knowledge returns to Islamic nations, how can anyone determine that to be any kind of "western" invasion rather than basically Islamic tradition of education mentioned in the Quran itself?

You've divided the world so black and white in this matter that you think that western philosophy and "other philosophy" are at some odds with each other, just because we have another concept called "western imperialism" that shares the name "western" in it. That's just a childish false dichotomy.

Quoting Isaac
If it is universal, then why is it not already part of their culture? Why is it not already passed down from parent to child, or cultural leader to children?


Why didn't people think about "0" before it was discovered as part of math? You wouldn't argue that "0" isn't a universal concept of math, do you? So why didn't people think of "0" before people used "0" in calculations?

How can you be a professor of Psychology and be this naive about the concept of learning, discovering, and the progress of thought through generations or education?

Just read up on the history of western philosophy of logical reasoning and you will find discoveries after discoveries of how nothing was clear cut and easily "invented" in one single place as some sort of universal truth that was just obvious. A universal concept means that it is universal in its logic. Deduction and induction are universal concepts as they are logical in nature. True premises lead to a true conclusion or true premises lead to a probable conclusion. This is as logical as math, just as discovering the concept of "0". Finding an alternative to this is like finding an alternative to "0", good luck. Maybe western philosophy was just the place these concepts were discovered, maybe others discovered it too, just like many ancient cultures discovered the concept of "0" independent of others doing the same.

But when I speak of these concepts as part of education, I'm clearly speaking of them as an education for people who didn't have those concepts known to them. And with authoritarian states that suppress knowledge, it might be known to the elite, but not the common man, which becomes a source of power for the elite. So giving this knowledge to the common man will help them level the playing field against the elite and help them stand up against that elite.

Quoting Isaac
How? You've suggested education. I disagree, so suddenly I'm saying we should do nothing? How on earth have you arrived at the conclusion that anything that isn't education is 'nothing'?


Because you disagree without elaboration and present no other alternative of practical solutions or parts of solutions? I can only conclude your point to be whatever you write it to be. If you constantly do not elaborate on anything and never present alternative solutions, then the conclusion is that you don't agree but have nothing else as an alternative solution.

You disagree that education can help the people of a nation to be able to rise up against the elite and government. And that knowledge passed down from parent to child is enough to gain enough wisdom for anything. For a university professor, that is a hell of a fucked up viewpoint in my opinion.

Quoting Isaac
You haven't. You've just vaguely waived about the words 'education' and 'westernised'. I could counter by vaguely waiving about the terms 'socialism' and 'worker's revolution'.


I think I've presented enough examples if you cared to read other than just view everything through western imperialistic lenses.

And yes, you could elaborate on your Marxist ideas for Russia, please do, what is the Marxist solution to Russia that can help them reshape their nation to something less corrupt and more open to freedom and rights of the people. I would like you to make a case for how that would happen.

I suggested independent education for the Russian people who got the short stick of the educational inequality lottery. I don't think that needs to be elaborated much more than aid that development. Maybe even have online schools that create valid grades. Support everyone with internet free of state control to take part in such education, and computers for those who can't afford them.

I mean, none of this is that big of a deal, but it would level the playing field of the Russian population, able to access unfiltered information and be able to get an education regardless of situation, class or economy. You could bring in Starlink dishes to remote areas for example.

It doesn't take much to see how education for the ones not lucky enough to score the inequality lottery could improve the general knowledge of the entire population. And as I've argued, a better education leads to a better ability to question the status quo when the status quo is bad for the people. Because it's easier to arrive at solutions to that status quo, not just wait for the corrupt government to fix itself.

So... how would you practically see the Marxist reform? Or do you mean we should do nothing and just let them exist under Putin's boot until they automatically become a Marxist nation? that's kind of the same as not doing anything.

Quoting Isaac
Right.

My suggestion is exactly the same without the so-called 'free' market, and with worker-owned means of production.


How will that be done practically? I mean, Russia already has a foundation for the free market, so you need to remove that part. You also need to establish guidelines as to how different levels of competence within those worked-owned companies are being handled, so that some don't work their assess off while others don't but get the same.

I mean, the Marxist concept was about how capitalism's collapse gives birth to a Marxist society. i.e a communist society. All examples of communism we have so far were... just as you suggest here... a deliberate force of change, to speed up that collapse of capitalism and install communism directly. That didn't work out so well now did it?

So you are suggesting the same kind of Lenin approach to all of this. I would just like to know how that would really play out in reality, in your opinion? Especially when Russia already has a free market in place that needs to be shut down first.

It's fascinating that you are so opposed to my idea of installing better and more equal education free of state propaganda as part of improving people's ability to choose what they want to do in life and how they want to reshape their nation... while you yourself suggest installing communism, ignoring what is already in place that would more organically change society in a way people can be comfortable with, just because you don't like capitalism and the free market.

You essentially do the same sin you accuse others of, you don't care what they already have and just want to install what you believe is right.

Quoting Isaac

What's on offer right now is none of the things we actually agree on and just the one we disagree on. What's being offered to Ukraine is western financial support in return for a reduction in social welfare, an increase in elite ownership over the means of production, and an opening up of markets.


So they're not free to choose for themselves then? Maybe they choose that path because they want it? Why is it wrong to choose that path, but it's right to choose the path you suggest? Have you any evidence of such an ultimatum from the west or are you just using that as a way to suggest that your path is the right one? How about some consistency in thought here, or is it you who are racist against Ukrainians? Thinking they are unable to choose because they don't choose what you want them to choose and inventing an ultimatum that has no proof behind it you can justify why their choice is bad and your suggestion for communism is better?

What you are suggesting as a solution requires far more force than what I suggest, a force that might even go against the will of the people. How ironic this all became.







BC April 05, 2022 at 14:37 #677891
Quoting Olivier5
the kind of things the Nazis were doing.


Exactly. It is hideously ironic that Russia, which claims to be "de-nazifying" Ukraine is emulating the actual Nazis.
BC April 05, 2022 at 14:45 #677894
Quoting Olivier5
This was not always the case.


True enough, the Dutch were quite imperialistic with colonies in the Americas, Asia and Africa. Royal Dutch Shell didn't get rich harvesting clams, after all.
BC April 05, 2022 at 14:52 #677896
Quoting Benkei
still think it's about class struggle


Probably a sweeping generalization, but "The class war is the only war."
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 15:07 #677902
Quoting Isaac
So nothing to do with the comment you cited then.


You are thick.

It had to do with this comment of yours, where you made it look like Zelensky and the West are war criminals, and you conveniently left the Russians off the hook:

Quoting Isaac
It's not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed. Western governments decide in what way to assist. Ukrainian children die. They didn't get a say in the matter.


Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 15:07 #677903
Reply to Bitter Crank Yep, someone needs to denazify Russia...
Benkei April 05, 2022 at 15:08 #677904
Quoting Olivier5
This was not always the case. The Netherlands had an oversea empire in South Africa and Indonesia. They invented the apartheid system to rule it, primarily to avoid inter-racial sex and marriage. Their very long war against the independent-minded Acehnese became a war of extermination. Dutch troops wiped out entire villages and murdered civilians by the thousands. That's how they 'won'.


All true unfortunately. Even worse, apologising for our "police actions" at the end of the 40s is still not done because the feelings of veterans are more important than admitting to war crimes.
boethius April 05, 2022 at 15:08 #677905
Quoting frank
I don't need to worry about balance. So most of the stuff you're saying is just misunderstood by me. I don't have the same concerns you do, so I don't get the intent.


Our, certainly my, concerns are the hundreds of military bases and toppling government and interfering in democratic political processes even in Europe as well as overt military threats and actions as well.

Which, the US, having the most military and covert power, does the most of, in addition to the integration of this power system with multinational corporations that implement these policies in a sort of quasi-legalistic way as well.

Are these actions justified by democracy? No. Democracy can still result in unjustifiable actions.

We can also question not only how democratic the United States actually is, but also question, given it determines policy and governments in many places around the world who don't get to vote ... if the US system is really democratic at all considering the case can be made that the United States imposing its will on poor countries is de facto governing without the consent of the governed.

Be that as it may, the question is one of scale. The actions of the US have far greater impact on the state of the world than Uzbekistan, so the utility of criticising US policy is simply more relevant and hopefully more fruitful.

If you say "but you don't criticise the others!" ... we do. I called China a totalitarian hellscape many times on this forum, and if you retort "ok, but not as much!" then the answer is in terms of scale and effectiveness.

USA, for now, has more influence on the state of the world than Uzbekistan and even China, so is more relevant in terms of political criticism.

Additionally, not only is criticism of USA more effective precisely because it's not yet completely totalitarian (I would argue pretty close though), so we can engage with American's such as yourself, but our own governments have far more influence over American policy than Uzbek or Chinese policy. A lot of actions the US want to be seen as "the US and its allies" and "the Free World" and so Europe has considerable leverage in such "Deciding for the Free World" conversations. Sometimes US goes it alone, but it prefers not to.

For example, certainly there is lot's and lot's to condemn and criticise about North Korea, I don't think anyone here would disagree, the problem is that the criticism doesn't go very far as we can't do much about it. If someone had a plan to make life better and more democratic in North Korean from the outside ... great, let's do it; the problem is the paucity of such plans and so there's little to scrutinise and discuss and little to do, and North Korean influence on the world isn't so great, so "the problem" can just be ignored insofar as no one seems to have a solution anyway.

However, contrast this to American policy and it's a different situation; the scale of the American War Machine and covert machine is global and massive, in addition both legitimate and illegitimate political and economic power; these policies can be influenced in several effective ways, so it's worth debating.
boethius April 05, 2022 at 15:17 #677908
And we have discussed "what we can do about democracy in Russia" such as provoke a violent revolution.

However, if one disagrees with that plan and doesn't see or hear any other plan to affect Russian policy on the short term (the here and now when people are dying), then, again, seems the best we can do is try to understand the Russian perspective and make the case of Europe and the US using their leverage and "statecraft" to reach a diplomatic resolution and the end to the current bloodshed.

If the bloodshed stopped, then there would be plenty of time to debate the morality from first principles and what longer term policies may prevent and minimise wars in the future, including policies with respect to Russia. War crimes should be investigated, for various reasons, including that it hopefully dissuades more war crimes in the future.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 15:18 #677909
Quoting frank
I suspect one of them is doing it for the money.
— Olivier5

I meant people like that in general.


Sure, and among people like that, some of them do it for the money, but of course your question of why do they defend Russia arises only for those who do it for free.

My take is that's a naïve form of anti-americanism. They really really think Biden is worse or scarier that Putin. That kind of ideas is more likely to exist in parochial folks who never travelled much beyond their little country, because it takes only a few days in a dictatorship to understand what's happening. The difference with your average semi-healthy democratic country is hard to miss.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 15:20 #677911
Reply to Benkei There's no such thing as a nation of angels.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 15:23 #677912
Quoting boethius
If the bloodshed stopped, then there would be plenty of time to debate the morality from first principles and what longer term policies may prevent and minimise wars in the future, including policies with respect to Russia. War crimes should be investigated, for various reasons, including that it hopefully dissuades more war crimes in the future.


No reason to expect the bloodshed to stop, nor to wait for the bloodshed to stop first before we can debate morality.
frank April 05, 2022 at 15:41 #677918
Quoting Olivier5
My take is that's a naïve form of anti-americanism. They really really think Biden is worse or scarier that Putin. That kind of ideas is more likely to exist in parochial folks who never travelled much beyond their little country, because it takes only a few days in a dictatorship to understand what's happening. The difference with your average semi-healthy democratic country is hard to miss.


So you're different because you've traveled more?
boethius April 05, 2022 at 15:55 #677925
Quoting Olivier5
No reason to expect the bloodshed to stop, nor to wait for the bloodshed to stop first before we can debate morality.


I said from first principles. If the bloodshed ended we could circle back to a lot of foundational moral issues that have been touched on in this thread, but it's difficult to really get into because of the war and events moving forward.

Wanting to end the war, is a moral position, be it militarily or diplomatically or via revolution in Russia, but we are taking that moral position for granted, not debating first principles about it.

From that shared moral position, people here are advocating different things—be them further moral differences or then just analytical questions of effective action; i.e. how best to achieve the shared goal.

For example, some have clearly stated the position that repeating Western media narrative helps Ukrainians, helps them fight and get support and so helping to end the war that way, and Russian points, be them true or false, should be ignored as even recognising "the seed" that happens to be true as true serves the Russian propaganda.

Others, have argued for a diplomatic resolution which requires a diplomatic framework.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 15:56 #677926
Reply to frank Not different, just less anti-american.
FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 15:56 #677927
https://www.rt.com/russia/553293-bucha-war-crimes-truth/

RT:The linkage between the dead and the Russian military was established immediately, without any fact-based data to back it up, and subsequently echoed in all forms of media – mainstream and social alike. Anyone who dared question the established “Russia did it” narrative was shouted down and belittled as a “Russian shill,” or worse.

FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 15:57 #677928
Here we go:

Quoting CNN
CNN has not been able to independently confirm the details around the men's deaths.


Note the URL

/ukraine-images-russia-invasion-what-matters/index.html


If a video of civillian bodies along the roadside is taken as proof of Russian atrocities, then there is no need for either further comment or explanation.

This is the reason wars happen: because reason never settles the issue.
Punshhh April 05, 2022 at 16:00 #677929
Reply to Benkei
I can find you someone who has met Putin, but I don’t think it would help. Putin has a poker face, is an ace poker player. Those Kremlinologists who have met him have come to similar views. He must be judged by his actions. I’m not here to talk about Andrew Levi though, I’m here to discuss what Putin is up to and the tweet I quoted lays out the argument that he is the equivalent of a Mafia boss.

Forgive me, I wasn’t aware of discussion you were involved in with regarding the track record of the US.
I have no argument with you there. We do need to focus on the actor who has committed an act of aggression though.

It's also neither here nor there. If we want peace, if we want to stop the killing now, we need to go through the Russia that is now and the way it is under Putin. And secretly of course the wish for "fundamental change" is for Russia to roll over and accept US hegemony and pretend it doesn't have any interests or rights other than those that exactly align with what the UK/US want them to be.


So you are of the opinion that peace can be achieved with Putin in place? Provided he is held in a weak position, with some stability, I would agree with you. But this may not be possible and it might not work for him. Perhaps these acts of aggression are required for him to maintain himself in power and he would feel threatened if he is left weak. There are the problems of what might happen in Russia if it is relegated to a world pariah. He could then lash out in a more dangerous way, or the Russian people could react in some aggressive way. There is also the geopolitical considerations in which China could align with Russia and the world could divide into those states who are with Russia and those who are against.

For NATO, leaving Putin to get bogged down in Ukraine, depleting his forces until sanctions bite might have the best outcome. But this may involve the destruction of Ukraine, a sovereign state and war crimes on a massive scale. Can NATO stand by and watch this happen.
FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 16:02 #677930
https://craneip.com/china-remains-ukraines-largest-trade-partner-in-2020/

The most popular categories of goods that were imported into Ukraine were mineral fuels, oil and its distillation products, reactors, boilers, machinery, equipment and mechanical devices, and vehicles.

The main countries-suppliers of goods to Ukraine were China (with a share of 15.3%), Germany (9.4%), and Russia (8.5%).


Could it be said that China helped fuel Ukraine's war machine?
ssu April 05, 2022 at 16:08 #677932
Quoting boethius
As Benkei (an actual lawyer) has already pointed out, there does need to be some sort of credible investigation, chance for the accused to defend themselves, and, ideally, some sort of impartial trial to determine war crimes, or crimes in general.

But of course.

In the case of the shooting down of MH17 there was an extensive investigation by the Dutch Safety Board and the criminal investigation was one of the largest in Dutch history with dozens of prosecutors and 200 investigators. And those responsible were found. Of course this incident appears to have been an incident of "collateral damage" as usually shooting downs of civilian aircraft are. Actually earlier Ukraine accidentally shot down a Russian airliner using a truly old SA-5 surface to air missile (which has it's own radar in the missile and can fly very far). The ordinary thing would be to acknowledge the mistake (Oops.) and pay compensation for the families. The US did that when USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian airliner.

But this is not the way how Russia operates. It's just denies the truth perpetually. If you deny it, someone will believe you.

Quoting boethius
Additionally, war crimes by individual soldiers or units (which I do not doubt has happened; it's essentially guaranteed in any war) do not automatically translate to being war crimes of the military or the government. It must be some sort of institutionalised policy or direct order.

Again something very obvious. In Abu Ghraib the military policemen didn't invent out of boredom to humiliate the Iraqi inmates. They were specifically told to do so. It's actually rather difficult to hide a chain of command is something is perpetrated by en masse compared to one individual event.

When it comes to warcrimes, you can see when something is an act of one individual and when something is done systemically.


FreeEmotion April 05, 2022 at 16:18 #677935
Quoting ssu
accidentally shot down a Russian airline


As I recall it was an Ukrainian air force plane, a large one, at altitude, which should have sent alarm bells ringing. Interestingly, the route over Ukraine was changed due to the war there.

On 14 July 2014, a Ukrainian Air Force An-26 transport aircraft flying at 6,500 m (21,300 ft) was shot down

In April, the International Civil Aviation Organization had warned governments that there was a risk to commercial passenger flights over south-eastern Ukraine.[3]:?217? The American Federal Aviation Administration issued restrictions on flights over Crimea, to the south of MH17's route, and advised airlines flying over some other parts of Ukraine to "exercise extreme caution". This warning did not include the MH17 crash region.[61][62] 37 airlines continued overflying eastern Ukraine and about 900 flights crossed the Donetsk region in the seven days before the Boeing 777 was shot down.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
ssu April 05, 2022 at 16:34 #677938
Quoting Benkei
Other than that I find your optimism misplaced. Nagasaki and Hiroshima and the fire bombing of Tokyo ring a bell? How many were court martialed? Iraq? Afghanistan? Libya? Kosovo? Anything? Torture and renditions? What's Cheney doing nowadays anyway?

I don't think I was an optimist in any way. I just explained that even if nations can be theoretically against warcrimes and try preventing civilian casualties, it doesn't mean that warcrimes wouldn' happen. Yet if your strategy is to affect the civilian population, be it the firebombings of Japan, ethnic cleansing in the Balkans or the way Russia fought in Chechnya (and seems to be fighting in Ukraine), there something more to it than just the act of random violence. It's just then that the scale can be far greater.

At least Arthur "Bomber" Harris had the decency to understand that he would have been tried as a war criminal if the UK had lost. I'm not so sure how Curtis LeMay thought about it. He perhaps would have wanted have that nuclear war in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when Russia had only a few ICBMs. He surely saw the "brief but bloody" war something that would prevent from the "long and bloody" war, which is quite dubious.

User image

But of course, we are here talking about the war in Ukraine that was perpetrated by mr Putin.
ssu April 05, 2022 at 16:39 #677939
Quoting FreeEmotion
As I recall it was an Ukrainian air force plane, a large one, at altitude, which should have sent alarm bells ringing. Interestingly, the route over Ukraine was changed due to the war there.


I was referring to this case:

Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 was a commercial flight shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force over the Black Sea on 4 October 2001, en route from Tel Aviv, Israel to Novosibirsk, Russia. The aircraft, a Soviet-made Tupolev Tu-154, carried 66 passengers and 12 crew members. Most of the passengers were Israelis visiting relatives in Russia. There were no survivors. The crash site is about 190 km west-southwest of the Black Sea resort of Sochi, 140 km north of the Turkish coastal town of Fatsa and 350 km south-southeast of Feodosiya in Crimea. The accident resulted from combat-missile launches during joint Ukrainian-Russian military air-defence exercises. The exercises were held at the Russian-controlled training ground of the 31st Russian Black Sea Fleet Research center on Cape Opuk near the city of Kerch in Crimea. Ukraine eventually admitted that it might have caused the crash, probably by an errant S-200 missile fired by its armed forces. Ukraine paid $15 million to surviving family members of the 78 victims ($200,000 per victim).
Benkei April 05, 2022 at 16:41 #677940
Quoting Punshhh
Provided he is held in a weak position, with some stability, I would agree with you.


That contradicts what you shared though. The more secure and respected Putin feels the less trouble he should be.
ssu April 05, 2022 at 16:57 #677945
Quoting frank
I'm trying to understand people who are quick to defend Russia. I mean people like Benkei, who may not qualify as apologist, but seems to jump to defend Putin in a way he wouldn't for other leaders, particularly an American president.

What is behind that? Does it come down to anti-American sentiment where any enemy of the US is a friend? If not, then what? Do you have an idea?


I think people can explain themselves better.

But at least @Isaac has been pretty consistent in his reasoning that he doesn't want that the US would be seen as a "A Knight in White Shining Armour".

Yet if one side tells the truth in favorable terms and the other side fabricates an utter lie, is then the best thing to look for the truth in the middle?

No.

You have to disregard the lie and understand the agenda of the other.
User image
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 17:17 #677946
Quoting Christoffer
Education is usually formed in collaboration with the people it is for.


No. It's almost exclusively imposed on them. Not only is the curriculum set at governmental level, but even if people are consulted, those consulted are adults and the education is for children. At no point are they involved in the process at all.

Quoting Christoffer
What 'specialist equipment' is required to investigate critical thinking? — Isaac


What "equipment" are you referring to? It's like saying you need "special equipment" to teach 2 + 2 = 4.


I had said that if specialist equipment were required then one could understand a more developed country obtaining some knowledge derived from it. You countered with "what about critical thinking!" I'm just sating critical thinking doesn't require any specialist equipment so there's no reason to assume indigenous cultures haven't already worked it out.

Quoting Christoffer
Philosophically speaking, that is not enough as a counterargument.


It's no less than the argument you gave. You've not said anything more than that X is the case. I've countered that I disagree X is the case.

Quoting Christoffer
So you do know about biases in thought then? You understand that "thinking" is never uninfluenced by the surrounding world? That it's not enough to just "think differently", and that the only way to bypass our biased thinking is through methods of critical thinking.


Yes. My specialism in in the social construction of beliefs.

Quoting Christoffer
I'm a bit stunned that a professor of psychology seems to suggest that there are no problems with people just following their parents' ideas and ideals.


This is what fascinates me about your approach here. I've said I'm a professor of Psychology, you seem to have no problem believing that (for now, at least). Then, when I raise a point of disagreement with you, you still think you have it right and I've got it wrong, even within the field you've just happily accepted I have spent a lifetime studying. Did it not even pass by your thought processes that you might just have this wrong? That, despite the fact that it feels right, you might have to accept things aren't as they seem?

Quoting Christoffer
The same goes for critical thinking.


The evidence for there being a fact of the matter or teachable body of knowledge on the subject of critical thinking is extremely thin on the ground and I'd go as far as to say that current thinking in developmental psychology is heading in the direction of admitting that it can't be done pedagogically. What you certainly don't have is some clear unequivocal fact that critical thinking is a solid canon which can be taught through standard education.

Quoting Christoffer
Education doesn't magically solve a problem in a nation, but it gives the people the knowledge tools to effectively shape their own change and reforms.


Again, there's little to no evidence that education (as in pedagogy) actually achieve this in the least.

Quoting Christoffer
With the implication that there's no need for education, just let the parents teach their kids.


Yes, that's right. Quoting Christoffer
In my perspective, that is how you keep a people stuck in traditions and more easily keep them in control of authoritarian systems.


Again, the direct evidence is thin to non-existent for this. Self- or home- education does not yield less (or more) authoritarian societies. I've studied the education methods of large numbers of hunter-gatherer tribes, as well as small networks of home-educated groups in England. none show the trends associated with indoctrinate teaching among, say, religious groups or some of the remote agriculturalist tribes. Education method is not the deciding factor in the imposition of indoctrination. It has far more to do with social structure and economic conditions.

Quoting Christoffer
It is entirely possible, as mentioned before, to structure a curriculum in nations with low to no educational systems, to be entirely based on that nation's culture.


Then why haven't those nations already done it? What are they natively lacking which has prevented this?

Quoting Christoffer
what about facts? Like facts of building a house as in my analogy? If one part of the world has developed a lot of factual data about effective house building, then that data is objectively good for everyone to know.


I have no objection to the widespread sharing of facts. Sharing facts and 'education' are not the same thing.

Quoting Christoffer
Most of the time educational content forms as a synthesis of previous knowledge, and from all over the world.


No it doesn't. The curricula in schools and colleges is almost 100% that of white western males.

Quoting Christoffer
Schools in these nations are primarily run by teachers from that nation itself. Starting off with teaching reading, writing, math, and universal skills like that. Do you think that beyond the basics, they don't include things like philosophy rooted in their own nation?


Literacy is not the issue here. Children are perfectly capable of learning to read, write and do arithmetic entirely of their own volition without any schools at all, they need only the time and materials - two things denied them in most early agricultural and developing industrial economies.

Quoting Christoffer
I'm arguing for education, quality education in a shape and form that is free from political influence of any kind. That focuses on knowledge from all over the world that is a synthesis of all the best knowledge, facts, and methods that humanity as a whole has to offer.


Regardless of my opposition to formal education, let's say you're right. With no racist overtones, you'd have no reason at all to explain why they haven't already done this other than the material condition preventing them. So remove those material constraints. No further action is required. Remove the material constraints prevent people from developing their own education systems from their own cultural heritage. Nothing else need be done. Its the material constraints that matter.

Quoting Christoffer
if you know about any such alternatives to the common logical methods used broadly across the world, then that would be wonderful to learn.


It's not about alternatives. It's about you learning that, contrary to your strongly held assumptions, logical thinking methods are not some external discovery which must be taught, they are a natural part of normal human thought. What prevents their use is largely scarcity - being hungry, poor, stressed... Remove those and you will have people able to think critically without having to teach them anything.

Quoting Christoffer
that should drive building up knowledge of food production and that kind of industry to help fight both poverty and food shortages.


What makes you think the farmers of Senegal don't already have this knowledge? Are you saying their poor education is responsible for the food shortages, and not - for example - the fact that they were so heavily in debt to rich western institution that they had to export products to make repayments?

Quoting Christoffer
the knowledge of critical thinking I'm referring to is not some "westernized" idea, it has formed out of thousands of years of philosophy from all over the world, but established itself primarily within western philosophy as practice.


As I've mentioned. This is far from established fact.

Quoting Christoffer
Elaborate on the disagreement.


I think I've made it relatively clear, but if not already - critical thinking skills are endemic to humans, they don't need teaching, they are suppressed by scarcity and the removal of such scarcity is all that is required to encourage them. I should be clear here that scarcity does not only refer to economic scarcity. The details are way off topic for a thread about Ukraine.

Quoting Christoffer
The things you mention starts with people well educated to handle those things


There's no evidence for this at all.

Quoting Christoffer
Maybe hundreds of years of imperial interference robbed them...


Yeah, maybe. Or maybe not. The rest is just conjecture.

Quoting Christoffer
How can you be a professor of Psychology and be this naive about the concept of learning, discovering, and the progress of thought through generations or education?


Classic. You'd rather develop some convoluted story about how I've managed to become a professor of Psychology yet still hold the (obviously wrong) beliefs rather than simply come to terms with the possibility you might be wrong. Incidentally, this is what most of my research was actually on (the reason I engage with these threads at all), the tools people use to defend beliefs as they're challenged. Here, the most 'logical' thing to do (assuming you're happy with my assertion that I am, in fact, a professor of Psychology) is for you to wonder where you went wrong. To enquire what misstep you have made in reaching a conclusion that an expert in the matter has questioned. But instead, you reach for an alternative (far less plausible) narrative to protect you from having to rethink your conclusions. You'll assume I'm lying perhaps (without any cause, nor realising what immense problems that would bring me on a public forum), or I've somehow made it to this level without having a basic understanding of how people learn. Both less plausible stories than that you've just got something wrong.

Quoting Christoffer
you could elaborate on your Marxist ideas for Russia,


I'm not really interested in discussing practical solutions. I think it's quite inane to do so on a public forum full of laymen. I'm only really interested in how you present your beliefs and how you respond when challenged.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 17:44 #677957
Quoting boethius
it's difficult to really get into [a moral discussion] because of the war and events moving forward.


I don't see how wars and events prevent a moral discussion. That's a non sequitur.

Isaac April 05, 2022 at 17:49 #677958
Quoting ssu
Yet if one side tells the truth in favorable terms and the other side fabricates an utter lie, is then the best thing to look for the truth in the middle?


I don't understand this proposition at all. If you already know the 'truth' (such that you know one side tells the truth and the other lies) then why would you "look for the truth" at all? You already know it.
baker April 05, 2022 at 17:51 #677959
Quoting Benkei
Nice is-ought mistake there.


No, that one is only in your mind. I'm not going to defend stances you merely imagine I hold.

Selective in your history too.


*sigh*

I didn't say all societies throughout history had a soldier class.

And nowhere have I suggested everybody should be the same.


Your use of "we" says otherwise.

And no I don't feel like expanding on this other than the obvious point we're the only animal who have started mass killing itself - not as an isolated incident but policy.


Then you need to read up on infanticide in animals:

[i]In animals, infanticide involves the killing of young offspring by a mature animal of the same species, and is studied in zoology, specifically in the field of ethology. Ovicide is the analogous destruction of eggs. The practice has been observed in many species throughout the animal kingdom, especially primates (primate infanticide) but including microscopic rotifers, insects, fish, amphibians, birds and mammals.[2] Infanticide can be practiced by both males and females.

Infanticide caused by sexual conflict has the general theme of the killer (often male) becoming the new sexual partner of the victim's parent, which would otherwise be unavailable.[3] This represents a gain in fitness by the killer, and a loss in fitness by the parents of the offspring killed. This is a type of evolutionary struggle between the two sexes, in which the victim sex may have counter-adaptations that reduce the success of this practice.[3] It may also occur for other reasons, such as the struggle for food between females. In this case individuals may even kill closely related offspring.

Filial infanticide occurs when a parent kills its own offspring. This sometimes involves consumption of the young themselves, which is termed filial cannibalism. The behavior is widespread in fishes, and is seen in terrestrial animals as well.[/i]

And, of course, intrauterine cannibalism.

The fact you think that's normal and go out of your way to defend its existence would be funny if it wasn't so sad.


You are really mean. I addressed a topic, and you shot it down with a taboo.

Is this a philosophy forum or the watercooler??!!
ssu April 05, 2022 at 18:27 #677965
Quoting Isaac
I don't understand this proposition at all. If you already know the 'truth' (such that you know one side tells the truth and the other lies) then why would you "look for the truth" at all? You already know it.

Of course not... :roll:

OK: Consider for example the case of Putin's little green men. A picture from the 2014 invasion:

User image

Do the above men look as to be part of a Crimean volunteer force that sprang up because of the turmoil in the country? Or do they look like Russian paratroops that don't have the Russian flag insignia on their arm?

In order to draw a conclusion which possibility is correct, perhaps you then have to have some idea about just what would a "volunteer force" during political turmoil would look like and what Russian paratroops in their newest gear would look like. And if you don't know anything about the gear, then look at the age of the men. Volunteer militias are usually made up of young and old men while armies are made of fit service age males.

Yet during that time, this was all too confusing for journalists who I remember clearly didn't want to make conclusions at first just who the soldiers were... because it wasn't told to them. So they were "little green men".
boethius April 05, 2022 at 18:29 #677966
Quoting Olivier5
I don't see how wars and events prevent a moral discussion. That's a non sequitur.


You didn't read either of my comments.

I said moral discussion of first principles, which you are not doing.

You assume Ukraine has just cause, you are not discussing your moral theory about it nor anyone else's, nor why Ukraine happens to have just cause with respect to your moral theory.

You are not discussing morality, you are mostly just condemning Russians and praising Ukrainians based on moral ideas you already have, and accusing people you perceive as helping the former at the expense of the latter. I.e. you are implementing political objectives: to influence and shape perceptions.

A moral discussion would be circling back to issues such as how many Nazi's would justify invasion, to be confident it's not Russia who has just cause.

Which, each side claims they have just cause and therefore they can lie and their crimes can be excused, as crimes by soldiers and even institutions in warfare can be expected; either as "shit happens" or then the means justify the just ends and the warrior has to do sometimes difficult things, hard choices have to be made.

Or then, maybe neither side has just cause and individual soldiers are better off deserting.

Perhaps even both sides can have just cause in a moral relativistic theory driving identity politics ... which suddenly I don't see, where did it go? Is it under this rock? Nope, not under there. Maybe behind this tree? Nope, not over here either. Funny, I was certain it was around here somewhere.

If you actually look at the moral arguments, they essentially are structured around a sort of original just cause that justifies whatever deception or otherwise crimes that follows that. However, if original just cause justifies lying, the problem is it justifies lying about the original just cause as well.

In your system of reasoning that's solved by simply assuming you have just cause and even challenging that to see if it would survive critical scrutiny would undermine the belief in the just cause, a belief required to win the just war, therefore even scrutinising the original just cause would be immoral as it undermines the belief in the just cause, which you know is true without any scrutiny, which would be immoral to really cary out in a good faith way, but you know it to be true anyways.
Punshhh April 05, 2022 at 18:36 #677969
Reply to Benkei Yes like passing through the eye of a needle. I find it difficult to image such an outcome.
boethius April 05, 2022 at 18:37 #677970
Quoting Olivier5
I don't see how wars and events prevent a moral discussion. That's a non sequitur.


As for "preventing" that's a completely absurd representation of my position.

I said if you want the bloodshed to end (that's your moral objective in the here and now), then it will end by one side winning or then diplomatic resolution.

That doesn't prevent discussing from first principles just war theory and the moral theories upon which such just war theories would be built, it's just unlikely to help end the war one way or another (which I mention Ukraine "marching on Moscow" would be one way to end it, and does not require thinking about the Russian perspective much).
frank April 05, 2022 at 18:44 #677972
Quoting Benkei
. The more secure and respected Putin feels the less trouble he should be.


If that's true, we should expect trouble going forward. His actions have eliminated Russia's market economy. He's transitioning to some sort of command economy, like N. Korea's.

So he is headed backward economically speaking. Ties to the west: gone. Russian middle class: severely reduced. His economy: permanently contracted.

That doesn't bode well for the overall health of Russian society.

Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 18:50 #677974
Quoting boethius
A moral discussion would be circling back to issues such as how many Nazi's would justify invasion, to be confident it's not Russia who has just cause.


And lo and behold, we have found it quite possible to have this discussion here, in spite of the war going on, so I don't see the link between a war going on, on the one hand, and a moral debate, be it on first principles, on the other hand. These are two very different things and I can see no causal mechanism between them, where one would prevent the other...

Camus wrote the Letters to a German Friend while WW2 was still raging. He didn't find it a problem. Why do you?
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 18:58 #677975
Reply to ssu

And?



Or

https://odysee.com/@Orf:b/lab-leak-conspiracy-theory-mashup:4

Both sides lie. So why believe one and not the other?
boethius April 05, 2022 at 19:02 #677976
Quoting Olivier5
And lo and behold, we have found it quite possible to have this discussion here, in spite of the war going on, so I don't see the link between a war going on, on the one hand, and a moral debate, be it on first principles, on the other hand. These are two very different things and I can see no causal mechanism between them, where one would prevent the other...


Time is limited.

Every word you consider saying you could first debate in your head 10 years the first principle reasons before saying it. Nothing prevents you from carefully reflecting in such a way.

It may however prevent other goals the word under consideration was intended to address 10 years ago.
boethius April 05, 2022 at 19:09 #677978
Reply to Olivier5

You clearly have no idea how long debating from first principles takes and that the war will be likely long over (hopefully long over) before we even make any progress in such a debate.

People have existing moral positions in which they are approaching the war in Ukraine and try to do, or a least promote, their moral objectives.

My moral objective is to contribute to a diplomatic resolution, which is just boring talking.

I don't see how debating just war from moral first principles would help arrive at a diplomatic resolution, but if you have a proposal on what is the ultimate moral first principles and how to apply them to believe what and to say what and to do what about the war, feel free to teach me about it.
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 19:14 #677980
Reply to frank

Here's an interview with Yanis Varoufakis. He's saying much the same things as we're saying here. The point I want you to note is the first part

Back in 2001, I labelled Vladimir Putin a war criminal because of the murder of 250,000 people in Grozny, Chechnya. It was in a Senate meeting of the University of Athens, which was discussing the motion for awarding an honorary doctorate to Putin, who had just become president of Russia. And I was in a minority of one opposing it.


https://unherd.com/2022/04/ukraine-cannot-win-this-war/

It has absolutely nothing to do with "defending Putin"
Benkei April 05, 2022 at 19:18 #677981
Reply to frank Reply to Punshhh I'm not necessarily agreeing with this theory, just saying that if you follow Andrew Levi's assessment then this is what you get.

I happen to think it's wrong. I think Putin and Russia in general are much more rational than people want to give them credit for because it doesn't fit the narrative of a "butcher" or "mob boss". Putin came from more or less nowhere and had held the reins of power in Russia for decades. He's not stupid and I see no good reason to replace the stated warnings by Russia over the past decades, eg. "don't fuck around with our sphere if influence" (I paraphrase) with convenient archetypes that prop up our narrative as "west good, Russia bad".

It doesn't fit his personal history and it doesn't fit official Russian policy for decades. Andrew Levi is just a convenient story to push UK policy.
Olivier5 April 05, 2022 at 19:20 #677983
Quoting boethius
You clearly have no idea how long debating from first principles takes and that the war will be likely long over (hopefully long over) before we even make any progress in such a debate.


I understand how unproductive any philosophical debate can be in terms of reaching agreement, but this is a 'productivist view' which I find a bit narrow minded.

And it has zilch to do with a war going on or not.

Philosophical debates are not really geared to reach a deal, as when two businessmen debate some deal they both want to strike. In philosophy debate is more a way for each debater to develop his or her views, to present them under different facets, to see how arguments are attacked, and hence how they can be improved.

Your argument was just pulled out of your behind in a futile attempt to prevent folks from expressing their views on the Busha crimes recently uncovered by the Ukrainians. And that's all I have to say about it.
frank April 05, 2022 at 19:34 #677988
Quoting Benkei
. I think Putin and Russia in general are much more rational than people want to give them credit for because it doesn't fit the narrative of a "butcher" or "mob boss"


Mob bosses aren't evil or irrational. They're a form of governance. You pay the mob as part of the price of doing business. That's exactly what Putin is in Russia.

They butcher, sure, but in an environment where the police can kill minority Americans and get away with it, it's good to align yourself with someone who has established a relationship with the police. It's corrupt, sure. But it provides some stability for people who would be vulnerable.

I think the point is that it's not Russia that just invaded Ukraine. It's Putin. A number of pundits have made that point. It's not insulting.

frank April 05, 2022 at 19:35 #677989
Quoting Isaac
It has absolutely nothing to do with "defending Putin"


I don't think you understand what I was asking, but I think I do get it now.
boethius April 05, 2022 at 19:36 #677990
Quoting Olivier5
I understand how unproductive any philosophical debate can be in terms of reaching agreement, but this is a 'productivist view' which I find a bit narrow minded.


That's why I don't say "reach agreement" but rather

Quoting boethius
before we even make any progress in such a debate.


... which does not include the word "agree".

However, whether you refuse for the purposes of deflection or then you genuinely don't understand, I am not against discussing moral issues from first principles.

It is simply not my priority and I have also pointed out no one here, including yourself, is doing so. If people wanted to do so, I could not "prevent them", but I would engage insofar as it seemed a productive use of my time (of which I do have a 'productivist view', despite even your disagreement), which, if it seemed to help reach a diplomatic resolution then I may participate in such a debate insofar as it does so.

Quoting Olivier5
Your argument was just pulled our of your behind in a futile attempt to prevent folks from expressing their views on the Busha crimes recently uncovered by the Ukrainians.


How did I prevent anyone expressing their views?

And, notice how the only mechanism available for me to prevent people from expressing their views .. is expressing my view, which, because you assume you have just cause without any scrutiny of the belief, my view (which was simply mentioning it does take investigations and hearing what the Russians say to even start some credible process) is somehow preventing other's from expressing their views about it?

Does it really though? Or does it simply take the edge off the circle of self adulation and pats on the back?
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 19:42 #677994
Quoting Olivier5
a futile attempt to prevent folks from expressing their views on the Busha crimes recently uncovered by the Ukrainians.


This is interesting. What is the mechanism you propose by which this prevention is achieved?
baker April 05, 2022 at 19:51 #677998
Quoting Christoffer
So give me an alternative then. Why can't you just do that in order to prove the dichotomy wrong? Because you've only presented two alternatives, either Russia as it is now or western standards which means it becoming a consumerist hell hole.


No, that's all your doing. I said I want every country to be self-sufficient:

Quoting baker
My vision for every country is to be self-sufficient.
(Even if this means economy on the preindustrial level.)


If it were up to me, I would enforce self-sufficiency at all costs. How this works out in any particular case depends on the particular cirucmstances.

The majority of the population of any country are plebeians. If they are given the reigns, the society will sink further and further.
— baker

That's why we have a representative democracy. But what are you actually saying here? Are you defending authoritarian dictatorship because giving the people power makes it worse? What's your point?


The masses cannot be trusted to make wise decisions. This is the entire scope of my claim.
That doesn't mean I "defend authoritarian dictatorship". The masses want panem et circenses. If they are allowed to pursue that, they will destroy everything.

This is an extreme oversimplification of everything and you still have no alternative to western society.


I favor self-sufficiency.

Give me an example of a practically working society on a large scale where people aren't under the pressure of a state boot?


Give me an example of a practically working society on a large scale where people aren't under the pressure of limited natural (and other) resources.

A western society may make "drones" out of the masses, but it also generates outliers that can drive society in new directions. In an authoritarian society, it is even more impossible to be different from each other, you need to stay in line, otherwise, you'll get shot or imprisoned. Why do you think ethnic cleansing is a common thing within these authoritarian societies? Because anything different is a threat to the power. This is less common in western societies.


The way people in Western society are different from one another is trivial, superficial. Those differences are merely artificially trumped up, so that people can brag about them and their "tolerance".

The authoritarian reality of Russia makes its society worse than western societies, that is a fact.


You should read some modern Western books on psychology, such as the DSM. Then you'd understand what authoritarianism really is.

I can sit here and write openly with criticism against people in power and I won't get killed or become imprisoned, I can try and change things in society, but in Russia, I wouldn't be able to without risking a poisoned umbrella tip.


Being able to criticize those in power is overrated anyway. It doesn't affect those in power (other than to give them reason to retaliate). Moreover, the critics just want to air their outrage, vent their emotions. They aren't interested in constructive action.

So, if there are no alternatives, Russia should really become a westernized country. Because it's a corrupt authoritarian pariah state now, where people get imprisoned on a daily basis and state critics are either dead or in Siberia. To say that westernizing Russia is worse than what they have now is a fucking joke.


How politically correct.

Frees them from what? Frees them to do what?
— baker

Of their authoritarian boot silencing them and making them unable to choose any other person in power than Putin. What the hell do you think I mean? Seriously do you have problems understanding this?


In the West, we have no freedom in terms of sex, food, how we go about relationships, what we think the meaning of life is, and so on. It's all prescribed, all standardized, normativized.
The freedoms that we do have pertain only to trivialities. It's a golden cage we're in.

Or are you just apologetic about Russia/Putin and deny what is going on there?


More pc.

Tell that to state critics six feet under after getting poisoned or those in prisons or free media or the people getting dragged off the street in busses. Are you seriously saying that western societies and Russia are "basically the same". Seriously?


The differences are only in terms of practical circumstances, but not in terms of morality.

You absolutely can. I don't know what the fuck you are writing now but it's just nonsense blanked opinions as some kind of valid premises. Seriously, either you live in a nation with broken democracy and you're biased because of it or you are just blind to more perspectives than this.

I can support whatever the fuck I want in my country and no one would do anything about it, I can write critically about the government or some party or leader or whatever and my employer can't do a thing about it.


Or, more likely, you're so politically correct that your "criticism" doesn't "rub anyone the wrong way".
From what you've said so far, you sound very politically correct, just the kind of person Western societies like.

This is not an example of authoritarian power. It's an example of either a demonstration getting out of control or police going too far. Has nothing to do with state control of the people in the way that is going on in Russia.


Again, you're failing to see the similarity.

Seriously, are you unable to understand the differences here?


You're unable to see the similiarity.

Understand the grey area we're discussing?


Hold on. You call it a "grey area"??

France is a fucking paradise compared to living in Russia now.


Try being poor in France then.


I'm asking for a practical solution here, not some blanket statements of how the west is a hellhole and therefore Russia is fine without it.


And I said: self-sufficiency.
baker April 05, 2022 at 20:03 #678003
Quoting Christoffer
Speaking of "being free of the authoritarian bullshit", in what ways are we in the West "free of the authoritarian bullshit"?
— baker

Free speech


I do not recall a single day of my life when I had "free speech".

and you don't get imprisoned or killed if you criticize those in power.


The scope of the consequences of criticizing those in power is a practical matter, not a moral one.

In the West, a common consequence of criticizing those in power is loss of job, loss of reputation, loss of clients. In some banana republic, people also get evicted, imprisoned, maimed, killed.

This difference can lead one to conclude that the powers that be in the West have respect for human life, while those in a banana republic don't. Such a conclusion would be a hasty one. The Western powers that be merely have more practical resources than those in a banana republic. If, however, those resources become scarce, the difference disappears. As can be seen when the police use real bullets to shoot protesters.

It's quite clear what I'm speaking about, isn't it?


I want you to spell it out, so that I can use it as a reference.

Western societies are the only ones that also have the ability and potential to change if destructive ways are discovered.


I'll meet you at zero carbon footprint.

You think societies like Russia would care for actually changing transportation to renewable solutions? You think they would care about stuff like that or make any efforts to push for it?


A part of them do. Just like only a part of Westerners do.

Dreaming of utopian types of societies that have no practical or realistic existence right now is irrelevant. We can start with every nation granting constitutional free speech, free and independent media, and serious efforts to fight back against corruption. Laws that do not protect politicians and people in power but regulate them instead. Those kinds of things exist in western societies primarily and those are the ones I'm advocating for.


Talk about dreaming of utopian types of societies that have no practical or realistic existence right now!

Just try being poor in a first-world country.

I'm asking you to find a better alternative, that exists today. Please present an alternative that actually counters my argument here, because I still haven't heard any actual and realistic alternative yet. It's so irrelevant to just say "west bad" and present nothing else that is practically possible if the result is Russia's population being free of their authoritarian boot.


Well, self-sufficiency indeed seems awfully unrealistic and practically impossible.

Are you actually worried about the Russian people?
— baker

Uhhh, yeah, there are millions who don't want Putin and his bullshit, who want to live according to what I described as a free society. Why wouldn't I care for them?


Seems more like patronizing, rather than care.
RogueAI April 05, 2022 at 21:07 #678027
Reply to baker Why do you think so many people try so hard to get into America?
unenlightened April 05, 2022 at 21:35 #678038
Quoting RogueAI
Why do you think so many people try so hard to get into America?


Someone asked a seasoned bank robber why he robbed banks. "Because that's where the money is", he replied.
Isaac April 05, 2022 at 21:40 #678040
Quoting RogueAI
Why do you think so many people try so hard to get into America?


Because it's the only place America hasn't yet turned into a warzone?
Baden April 05, 2022 at 22:03 #678048
Quoting Apollodorus
That sounds like more pro-NATO propaganda [b]from the Finnish outback.


Warned you about this ethnocentred trolling before. Do it again and there will be consequences.

ssu April 05, 2022 at 22:04 #678052
Quoting Isaac
Both sides lie. So why believe one and not the other?

And you don't see an obvious lie when it's presented? In your postmodern life you are totally unable in every issue to do that?

Because when truth fits someones agenda, they won't lie. They can tell the truth then. You can separate the event and how something is represented.

I'll get back to that previous picture.

What is so hard to say that in the picture they are obviously Russian soldiers? I think it's quite easy to notice that they indeed are in the picture Russian soldiers. It's not something that "Oh, we don't know! We don't have sufficient information!"

Because if it wouldn't be so, you really believe looking at that picture that those are what Crimean volunteers as Putin declared them to be. So before they were ethnic Russians living in Ukrainian Crimea, then Maidan happened and they got from somewhere got all that similar equipment and rounded up all the fit military age men.

And pigs fly.
Baden April 05, 2022 at 22:16 #678057
Quoting Baden
Warned you about this ethnocentred trolling before. Do it again and there will be consequences.


Seeing as @Apollodorus does not seem able to heed warnings, his last couple of posts have been deleted as will any more along the same lines. Apologies to anyone who bothered to reply to him.

Christoffer April 05, 2022 at 22:19 #678060
Quoting Isaac
No. It's almost exclusively imposed on them. Not only is the curriculum set at governmental level, but even if people are consulted, those consulted are adults and the education is for children. At no point are they involved in the process at all.


And what source do you have for this cut and clear answer for every situation in every nation by every nation? And why would the children be consulted, it's the adults, parents, communities etc. that should be consulted as it's them who has the insight into their culture and community.

Quoting Isaac
I'm just sating critical thinking doesn't require any specialist equipment so there's no reason to assume indigenous cultures haven't already worked it out.


There's no reason to think that the logical tools established over the course of thousands of years, through the Greeks, the Islamic Golden age, renaissance, enlightenment, and modern scientific movement could ever just appear just because no special equipment is required. If you have any proof of analytical philosophy in this regard exists somewhere without any influence of collaborative philosophical transactions between nations, then please provide that instead of using an "it could be likely" argument as if that was somehow valid. You're grasping at straws here trying to justify why critical thinking within Western philosophy is "bad" knowledge for people in other cultures when the knowledge itself is nothing bad. It's like educating them 2 + 2 = 4 and then you say that we shouldn't do that. Why would that be a bad thing for them to know?

Quoting Isaac
It's no less than the argument you gave. You've not said anything more than that X is the case. I've countered that I disagree X is the case.


I've explained the logical reasoning behind it, you did nothing but say that you "disagree". So no, you have less of an argument, you have elaborated a thing and you require a truckload of evidence but ignore it when asked for even a fraction of it for your own conclusions.

I've said plenty more than "X" and enough to warrant more depth from you, which you never provide.

Quoting Isaac
Yes. My specialism in in the social construction of beliefs.


Interesting, that would mean you're pretty bad at your job since you believe a hell of a lot that you won't elaborate or support in any way, and you should definitely understand that knowledge, or rather beliefs passed down from parents to children is a core part of the social construction of how beliefs manifest and no way near the kind of knowledge that can help people break free from indoctrination and propaganda in a culture.

Quoting Isaac
This is what fascinates me about your approach here. I've said I'm a professor of Psychology, you seem to have no problem believing that (for now, at least). Then, when I raise a point of disagreement with you, you still think you have it right and I've got it wrong, even within the field you've just happily accepted I have spent a lifetime studying. Did it not even pass by your thought processes that you might just have this wrong? That, despite the fact that it feels right, you might have to accept things aren't as they seem?


You don't even know what I've studied. You saying you are right because you claim yourself to be a professor of psychology is a fallacy, that is not a valid support for an argument. And nothing of what you argue seems to rhyme with the actual knowledge you present yourself to be an expert in.

I don't care if you claim to be the God of knowledge, do you have a valid or reasonable argument? Do you support it logically? Those are the things that matter.

But you use your claimed title as a way to win the argument through authority. That is the same as a police officer beating an innocent down and saying, I have the right to do this because I'm a police officer and therefore I'm right. It's an appeal to authority fallacy with yourself as the authority and it's pretty annoying, especially since that behavior is one that I absolutely despise as it's an attempt at using a title as a form of proof of being right. Which is similar to authoritarian bullshit.


Quoting Isaac
The evidence for there being a fact of the matter or teachable body of knowledge on the subject of critical thinking is extremely thin on the ground and I'd go as far as to say that current thinking in developmental psychology is heading in the direction of admitting that it can't be done pedagogically. What you certainly don't have is some clear unequivocal fact that critical thinking is a solid canon which can be taught through standard education.


Philosophy, logical reasoning, deduction, induction, the practices of philosophical study in analytical form. On a more elementary level is to let students question a claim further than normally done, to examine their own claims in light of other perspectives or facts. Teach about biases and how they work. How the scientific method works, and in relation to it, how to actively try and disprove yourself as part of proving a point.

We can go on and on, but I think you know what I mean by "critical thinking". It's the foundation of study that isn't based on reciting past facts, but to examine facts through method, through thinking past biases, and reaching conclusions not rooted in pre-existing presumptions by the person examining.

Basically, it is philosophy, epistemology with a focus on examining one's own knowledge and pre-existing beliefs.

Are you telling me that nothing of this can be taught to people? That nothing of this is helpful in giving people a good foundation for figuring out actual truths instead of accepting the truths they are being told?

I think the problem is that you are referencing things like this. Which is more focused on high-level complex critical thinking. When I'm focusing on getting a basic understanding of critical thinking to people who generally have never viewed their own knowledge in light of such mental strategies.

In basic form, teaching epistemology will show students that there's more to a claim, truth, fact or argument, even done by yourself, than just accepting it as plain truth. That is key to teaching people under an authoritarian regime to start questioning what is true or not.

Quoting Isaac
Again, there's little to no evidence that education (as in pedagogy) actually achieve this in the least.


Are you saying that education does not change people from being servants of those in power to being agents of their own destiny? You can look at history for examples of how education reshape society. In older communities with a church and workers, the church was the source of information, but when general education started forming it drastically changed these communities.

So you're saying there's no change between a society with no- to low education and one with a good foundation of it?

Quoting Isaac
With the implication that there's no need for education, just let the parents teach their kids.
— Christoffer

Yes, that's right.


If there's no need for education, why don't you just quit your job then? All the parents already teach your students what they need, right?

Quoting Isaac
In my perspective, that is how you keep a people stuck in traditions and more easily keep them in control of authoritarian systems.
— Christoffer

Again, the direct evidence is thin to non-existent for this. Self- or home- education does not yield less (or more) authoritarian societies. I've studied the education methods of large numbers of hunter-gatherer tribes, as well as small networks of home-educated groups in England. none show the trends associated with indoctrinate teaching among, say, religious groups or some of the remote agriculturalist tribes. Education method is not the deciding factor in the imposition of indoctrination. It has far more to do with social structure and economic conditions.


Your studies focused on hunter-gatherer tribes and English people learning from home. I'm talking about people in authoritarian nations with extreme levels of propaganda forming the entirety of exposure to "truth" that the people are able to get. You keep saying that education isn't needed, that people can learn from their parents. Yes, that can be true with educated parents of nations with less corruption or state-controlled information. But religious and authoritarian societies are very much existing in a lot of places in the world and that's when this type of method falls flat and becomes indoctrination through tradition. Five generations of people living inside the truth of an authoritarian regime does not learn to question anything if all their knowledge comes from parents already indoctrinated. It becomes a feedback loop for them, with no keys to break out of that loop.

Quoting Isaac
Then why haven't those nations already done it? What are they natively lacking which has prevented this?


One part can be that they don't have any teachers for this type of educational form. So those teachers need to be educated first. Second part is funding to build schools, infrastructure for running those schools, and getting students to them and home. So if nations with more wealth than they need can help establish these first steps and that's where I mean that it can be done in collaboration with the people of that culture.

Quoting Isaac
I have no objection to the widespread sharing of facts. Sharing facts and 'education' are not the same thing.


No, but facts are being taught through education and more importantly, how to interpret facts, and understand them.

Quoting Isaac
Most of the time educational content forms as a synthesis of previous knowledge, and from all over the world.
— Christoffer

No it doesn't. The curricula in schools and colleges is almost 100% that of white western males.


Of what schools?

And you don't really seem to understand what I'm saying here. Educational content is derived from up-to-date sciences and facts. As the world has become more globalized, studies more often assimilate studies from other places of the world into the studies they do. All knowledge is a synthesis of what came before, studies informing other studies, etc. And in a historical context, this is what happened with the Islamic golden age, Greeks' knowledge was scattered away and was picked up during that golden age and then their refinement of the Greeks' teachings was scattered and picked up back by the west.

And schools in Sweden have made good efforts into researching how education has been tailored by earlier "white males" and helped correct things to better neutrality in content. Just the last 30 years have made schools here unrecognizable in how they've improved neutrality.

Quoting Isaac
Literacy is not the issue here. Children are perfectly capable of learning to read, write and do arithmetic entirely of their own volition without any schools at all, they need only the time and materials


Just throw the books at them and they'll learn? Yeah, right

Quoting Isaac
I'm arguing for education, quality education in a shape and form that is free from political influence of any kind. That focuses on knowledge from all over the world that is a synthesis of all the best knowledge, facts, and methods that humanity as a whole has to offer.
— Christoffer

Regardless of my opposition to formal education, let's say you're right. With no racist overtones, you'd have no reason at all to explain why they haven't already done this other than the material condition preventing them. So remove those material constraints. No further action is required. Remove the material constraints prevent people from developing their own education systems from their own cultural heritage. Nothing else need be done. Its the material constraints that matter.


You seem to have forgotten where this started. It's your sidetrack to talk about poorer nations' educational forms and yes, the constraints are primarily material. But I was talking about nations with authoritarian governments or nations with extreme religious violence and oppression of the people.

My point was that establishing schools independent of propaganda, religious or political, guarded against the authoritarian boots, will slice through the tradition of indoctrination within those nations and enable people to see through the status quo of such regimes. Letting parents teach their own children the same thing they were taught within such nations does not generate anything other than the same servents of those regimes that those parents were taught to be.

And regarding your opposition to formal education, aren't there a lot of studies showing how important it is for kids to get out of their homes and interact with other people as well as other perspectives than their own or what they've learned at home? Part of developing a balanced perspective is to challenge it through the exposure of those perspectives against others in the world. It's a large part of development. How do you do that without some gathering of young students in a place where such interaction can happen and be encouraged rather than randomly happen on its own. Your way of thinking about formal education seems to just focus on a dislike and criticism of the "white male controlling the curriculum", but excluding everything else that formal education gives young students. Viewing the UK schools from the outside, I get how people can criticize it due to the heavy focus on tradition in the UK. But schools in Sweden are nothing like that and your opposition to these schools makes little sense compared to what you propose instead, which has major problems when examining it closer.

Quoting Isaac
logical thinking methods are not some external discovery which must be taught, they are a natural part of normal human thought.


As an example, is examining a topic with deduction reasoning part of normal human thought? Have you ever met someone who figured out such methods on their own?

And what about those who don't have a high proficiency in logical reasoning? Who tend to always gravitate towards bias or agreeableness of others' opinions without questioning anything. Do you think they will "invent" methods to help them bypass those weaknesses out of thin air?

Basic logical thinking exists, but the tendency for bias is so high that it's easily can become corruptible knowledge.

Quoting Isaac
What makes you think the farmers of Senegal don't already have this knowledge? Are you saying their poor education is responsible for the food shortages, and not - for example - the fact that they were so heavily in debt to rich western institution that they had to export products to make repayments?


I didn't talk about Senegal I talked about an example of a poor community without farming skills.

If we talk about Senegal, don't you think that there are other skills that can be taught that can help them in other ways? What would happen if literacy went up from the low levels they have now? With better literacy comes other open doors in higher education.

Without education who's gonna fix the problems? Because just blaming the dept isn't enough, the reality is more complex than just cutting that dept, and then everything is fine. There needs to be a foundation underneath that as well.

Depts need to be cut, or at least lowered to levels actually sustainable, that I agree with. But you blindly blame the west for everything.

Quoting Isaac
the knowledge of critical thinking I'm referring to is not some "westernized" idea, it has formed out of thousands of years of philosophy from all over the world, but established itself primarily within western philosophy as practice.
— Christoffer

As I've mentioned. This is far from established fact.


No? Is ancient Greece "the west"? Is the Islamic golden age "the west"?

Where do you think western philosophy comes from? Just because it's "western" philosophy today, do you think any of modern philosophy is just purely "the west" or is it heavily influenced by the progress of philosophy through time? What about people like Schopenhauer who were heavily influenced by Eastern Philosophy, that didn't contribute to a synthesis of different perspectives that makes it hard to just say "western philosophy"?

"Western" is a trigger word for you it seems. It is just a word. Look at the content.

Quoting Isaac
I think I've made it relatively clear, but if not already - critical thinking skills are endemic to humans, they don't need teaching, they are suppressed by scarcity and the removal of such scarcity is all that is required to encourage them. I should be clear here that scarcity does not only refer to economic scarcity. The details are way off topic for a thread about Ukraine.


Sure, for hunter-gatherer societies and concentrated specific communities. Apply it to large-scale complex societies or complex interactions between different large societies. Or for when people need to change their nation because they are oppressed and they don't know how to do so.

To say that people of the population of the world today can just let "learning" happen on its own is a pure utopian delusion.

Quoting Isaac
The things you mention starts with people well educated to handle those things
— Christoffer

There's no evidence for this at all.


Quoting Isaac
education and development aid, growth in fair trade, reduction of debt, withdrawal of support for corrupt regimes.


Didn't you argue for letting nations just be themselves and solve things themselves? Here you mention a lot of interventions by the west, even forcing away corruption, which could mean it requires violence to do so. Reduction or removal of dept is obvious, but what I meant was that reduction of corruption, fair trade trading agreements and building a functioning educational system all need educated people within these nations to make sure this happens. Otherwise, it's us going into their nation and deciding for them, which you don't want happening.

Quoting Isaac
Maybe hundreds of years of imperial interference robbed them...
— Christoffer

Yeah, maybe. Or maybe not. The rest is just conjecture.


It's basically your own argument for which I agree with. I don't say that the west are angels and innocent, I'm agreeing that the west fucked all these nations over, but neither of that helps them now and the west just cutting dept and then leaving them alone will not help anything either. Poor nations of the world today have different levels of functioning societies, many even have rather high standards of living, but still struggle. Many of the national problems they have are not all the west fault and how do they fix those without educated people who have the skills and knowledge to do it? Because these problems aren't hunter-gatherer societies, these are large societies with complex problems that self-learning skills from parents don't fix.

Quoting Isaac
Classic. You'd rather develop some convoluted story about how I've managed to become a professor of Psychology yet still hold the (obviously wrong) beliefs rather than simply come to terms with the possibility you might be wrong.


Because you are a professor? Because now you're doing that appeal to authority fallacy again. Maybe it's you who need to come to terms with the possibility of being wrong? Maybe your self-image as a professor makes you dismissive of others' perspectives.

Quoting Isaac
Incidentally, this is what most of my research was actually on (the reason I engage with these threads at all), the tools people use to defend beliefs as they're challenged.


Have you ever examined yourself and your own tools of defense? Because posts you've made in this thread do not show any kind of sign that you have a clear understanding of your own behavior.

Quoting Isaac
Here, the most 'logical' thing to do (assuming you're happy with my assertion that I am, in fact, a professor of Psychology) is for you to wonder where you went wrong.


Wrong where? You are still using your authority as a reason for me to be wrong. You haven't presented anything in an argumentative form that proves anything correct. You imply opposition to formal education without any thought of further consequences of removal of formal education, you argue that complex problems in poor nations are just the West's fault and any other problems they can figure out themselves without any education in relation to such problems. You imply a Marxist reform of Russia, ignoring everything about how Russia functions today, and you imply that people can break through indoctrination and traditions of propaganda without understanding critical thinking or through balanced knowledge gained from independent education. None of this has any real arguments behind them, but you are a professor, so therefore your authority as such a professor makes your arguments correct.

This abuse of authority on your part in this does not validate your ability to be correct, quite the opposite.

Quoting Isaac
To enquire what misstep you have made in reaching a conclusion that an expert in the matter has questioned. But instead, you reach for an alternative (far less plausible) narrative to protect you from having to rethink your conclusions.


Again, you claim yourself to be an expert, therefore I'm wrong and therefore I need to rethink my conclusions. Without a clear argument, elaborating your points and premises for your conclusions you only abuse the authority to disqualify my input before yours.

The quality of your argumentative skills has been shown to be lousy, even towards others in this thread and I'm beginning to understand that if you are a professor using your authority as a fallacy like this, then that explains a lot of why you don't listen to others. And it might be high time for you to rethink things yourself.

Quoting Isaac
You'll assume I'm lying perhaps (without any cause, nor realising what immense problems that would bring me on a public forum), or I've somehow made it to this level without having a basic understanding of how people learn. Both less plausible stories than that you've just got something wrong.


I cannot know if you are lying or not, but it doesn't matter because if you are then you are a shitty professor who uses his authority as his main source of reasoning in a debate. "Professor" doesn't mean anything really, I've seen professors getting fired for being really bad at their jobs. I've seen professors not worthy of their title. Academia is filled with bullshitters who abuse their authority, that's nothing new. It's just obvious when it's obvious.

I think you are biased to your studies, I think you don't have a clear image of further consequences for your conclusions. It happens when studies are focused on a specific thing and not further large-scale ramifications of it that other studies and meta-studies aim to do. This focus on being a professor that knows more than others can lead to a delusion of being an expert in everything. But you are not a professor of philosophy, you are not a professor of political history. So when topics range between different areas, you can only really be an expert in your narrow field of study, but you comment and argue about so many other things while still using your authority as an explanation of why I'm wrong and you are right.

Quoting Isaac
I'm not really interested in discussing practical solutions. I think it's quite inane to do so on a public forum full of laymen. I'm only really interested in how you present your beliefs and how you respond when challenged.


And now you call everyone else "laymen". I'm interested to know how a professor that's not a professor in political history and political philosophy could explain the practical implementation of Marxism into Russia better than the "laymen" around him. But isn't it also convenient to not have to explain actual practical change like that and just dream utopian dreams while telling everyone else that you don't have to explain anything since you are a professor and others should just trust you because they are laymen that don't know better?

We are not your subjects of study, we are interlocutors in a discussion where you claim intellectual superiority because you are a professor rather than through convincing rhetoric and reasoning. Maybe you should study your own behavior on this forum?
Punshhh April 05, 2022 at 22:27 #678069
Reply to Benkei Prior to the invasion I was closer to your position. This changed in 25th Feb and especially when Putin threatened nuclear Armageddon with menaces. A line was crossed at that point, not just for me, but the leaders of all NATO leaders(Orban excepted). I don’t disagree that Putin and his gang are intelligent and rational. You only have to listen to Lavrov’s rhetoric, or the speech given by the representative of the Russian Federation at the UN today to understand that there is a sophisticated intelligent narrative on the Russian side. A narrative of victimhood(re NATO, or the West) and blaming Ukrainian failures (with US and Nato meddling) for everything happening in Ukraine including the war crimes. A narrative which is also drip fed to the Russian population.

The problem is what is going on behind this facade. Putin has absolute control and runs his country like a Mafia boss. He views and deals with his enemies with contempt and like the mafia, he pushes and threatens at every opportunity and takes full advantage of any weakness, or concessions. This situation has been developing for over 20yrs until now he has invaded a large sovereign country(an act of aggression) and threatened NATO countries with nuclear annihilation. Now we are waking up to the reality that he has a massive war chest, has built up a large army and is rampaging around ex USSR territories.

Now if we don’t stop showing weakness, or making concessions will this escalation just continue? If we do get involved, no fly zone for example, does the war just escalate. Either way it doesn’t solve the problem we are faced with. A tyrant.

He may become even more menacing and then at any time. just retreat to the Donbas, claim the special operation is complete and he will finish liberating the Russian speakers in that region from persecution. Or he might become more menacing and march across Macedonia, link up with Orban, just keep heading west. We just don’t know, all we see is a poker face. A Godfather, playing poker with us. Do we call his bluff, or show weakness and he wins another hand and more and more of the pot.
Apollodorus April 05, 2022 at 22:45 #678076
The fact is that in 1957, when (“Mr. Europe”) Paul-Henri Spaak signed the Treaty of Rome that established the European Economic Community (EEC), the precursor to the EU, he said:

We will rebuild the Roman Empire and this time through the power of ideas, not by force of arms.


There was a lot of talk about “building a United States of Europe” and “rebuilding the Roman Empire” among politicians and technocrats at the time, especially in countries like France and Belgium.

European Coal and Steel Community president Jean Monnet himself set up the Action Committee for the United States of Europe (ACUSE). The official press statement said:

by the Committee’s intervention and that of the organizations grouped within it, its action will consist in demonstrating to governments, parliaments and public opinion their determination to see the Messina resolution of June 2nd become a veritable step toward a United States of Europe … To achieve these objectives, it is necessary to put aside all specious solutions. Mere cooperation between governments will not suffice. It is indispensable for States to delegate certain of their powers to European federal institutions. At the same time the close association of Great Britain with these new accomplishments must be assured …


Press release on the creation of the Action Committee for a United States of Europe (Paris, 12 October 1955) - CVCE

More recently, Carl Baudenbacher, former president of the European Free Trade Area, openly admitted that the EU is trying to rebuild the Roman Empire:

Under Trajan the Roman Empire, at its greatest extent, encompassed the entire Mediterranean region, but also parts of present-day Germany, Britain, Romania, Turkey, Syria and Armenia. The European Union is preparing to build a similar empire.
Roman law played an important role in the expansion of the Roman Empire; and the EU relies on the export of its law, and the extraterritorial effect of the case law of the European Court of Justice (ECJ).
The EU has concluded bilateral association treaties with four former Soviet republics, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Armenia, under which these countries are aligning their legislation in important fields with EU law. The ECJ has a monopoly in the interpretation of treaty law which is identical in substance to EU law. Since each side can bring a dispute before the ECJ unilaterally, the European Commission may take a case to its own court and thus has a de facto right of surveillance over the associated states.
The same system is now to be set up for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine and Syria …


The choice Britain faces if it wants an EU trade deal: either EFTA, or the Ukraine model – LSE Blogtest

But according to NATO propaganda, it’s OK for the EU to rebuild and expand the Roman Empire, but not for Russia to resist EU expansion ….
RogueAI April 05, 2022 at 22:54 #678081
Quoting unenlightened
Someone asked a seasoned bank robber why he robbed banks. "Because that's where the money is", he replied.


America is very rich, that's true.
Christoffer April 05, 2022 at 22:59 #678084
Quoting baker
I do not recall a single day of my life when I had "free speech".


What is the level of free speech you want before you can accept the fact that you have free speech?

It also depends on which country you are in, of course, but assuming you are living in a nation that doesn't imprison or shoot you because of what you say.

Quoting baker
The scope of the consequences of criticizing those in power is a practical matter, not a moral one.

In the West, a common consequence of criticizing those in power is loss of job, loss of reputation, loss of clients. In some banana republic, people also get evicted, imprisoned, maimed, killed.

This difference can lead one to conclude that the powers that be in the West have respect for human life, while those in a banana republic don't. Such a conclusion would be a hasty one. The Western powers that be merely have more practical resources than those in a banana republic. If, however, those resources become scarce, the difference disappears. As can be seen when the police use real bullets to shoot protesters.


All of that depends on how the government functions as well. Not all western nations are the same. While I agree with your argument, it's a bit simplified.

But in terms of Russia, free speech is suppressed by people in power in order to keep being in power. We're not talking about levels of resources here, but an authoritarian government limiting free speech. They didn't really value human life before this invasion either, even when things were "stable".

Quoting baker
I want you to spell it out, so that I can use it as a reference.


The difference between being under a boot and not. That a western society can become authoritarian is not an argument for the west being authoritarian as well. (not speaking about the US which has too much corruption to be free of authoritarian attributes). I don't get imprisoned or killed when speaking my opinions on the street, I don't get state lies fed through the media, I can question whomever I want without getting into trouble. As long as my society isn't doing any of the opposite of that I am not in an authoritarian society.

Quoting baker
Western societies are the only ones that also have the ability and potential to change if destructive ways are discovered.

I'll meet you at zero carbon footprint.


Do you see the same level of engagement in these questions among non-western-standard nations? If anyone reaches zero carbon footprint, who do you think will be the first nation to do so? Norway is pretty close.

Debates and free speech enable people to push politicians for such changes. Companies are able to see the demand and act accordingly. In nations where you can't really change politicians' decisions, where corruption rules over all, and there's too much economical risk with changing anything, it won't happen fast or at all. I'm including the US in these types of nations that have a hard time changing course.

Quoting baker
You think societies like Russia would care for actually changing transportation to renewable solutions? You think they would care about stuff like that or make any efforts to push for it?

A part of them do. Just like only a part of Westerners do.


Do you think it's the more westernized parts of Russia's population that do?
And the majority of people in the west want this, the vocal others are a minority but still enough to hold things back. But as said, western nations have a much higher push toward sustainable energy and will get there sooner than others.

Quoting baker
Dreaming of utopian types of societies that have no practical or realistic existence right now is irrelevant. We can start with every nation granting constitutional free speech, free and independent media, and serious efforts to fight back against corruption. Laws that do not protect politicians and people in power but regulate them instead. Those kinds of things exist in western societies primarily and those are the ones I'm advocating for.

Talk about dreaming of utopian types of societies that have no practical or realistic existence right now!

Just try being poor in a first-world country.


I live in it, so I must be dreaming then.

Quoting baker
Seems more like patronizing, rather than care.


Well, I can merely speculate since it seems we don't know how many support Putin, how many criticize him, and how many criticize him but plays along so as not to be killed or imprisoned. The increase in popularity for Putin is an example of just how hard it is to know because that popularity can both be state propaganda or just people more afraid of consequences for saying anything else.
RogueAI April 05, 2022 at 23:03 #678087
Quoting Christoffer
We're not talking about levels of resources here, but an authoritarian government limiting free speech.


That is really the central point, isn't it? The idea of government, using all its powers, to suppress certain types of speech is chilling. Shades of 1984.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 00:08 #678104
Quoting Punshhh
Putin has absolute control and runs his country like a Mafia boss.


Nonsense. He may or may not "run his country like a Mafia boss". That's pretty irrelevant given that this goes for most presidents across the globe, to be honest.

But "absolute control" sounds like polemical exaggeration. If you had "absolute control" in Russia, would you have a military that can't even beat Ukraine?

In 1940 Germany overran Belgium, Holland, Luxembourg, and France in six weeks. Even Stalin was more efficient than Putin even though he was essentially a gangster and former train robber who used revolutionary Marxism to seize power.

You don't have absolute control when your armed forces and your intelligence chiefs perform the way Russia is performing in Ukraine.

The truth of the matter is that Russia has been a kleptocracy for half a century or longer. Putin is not Stalin, he has just got enough control over the oligarchs and other members of the kleptocracy to prevent them from taking over and to keep the country together and not under the control of international finance like in the 90's before he came to power.

Wayfarer April 06, 2022 at 01:03 #678118
Volodomyr Zelenskyy said
[quote=SMH; https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/zelensky-urges-un-to-take-action-against-russia-remove-its-veto-power-20220406-p5ab4y.html]some victims in Bucha were “shot and killed in the back of their heads,” while “some were shot on the street, others thrown into wells”. The graphic images have led to global condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin and demands he be tried for war crimes.

In his first speech to the [UN Security Council] since the invasion more than a month ago, Zelensky said he did not wish to negotiate with Russia and would rather a powerless and outdated UN purge Russia of the veto power it wields on the Security Council. Failing that, the organisation should dissolve itself, he said.

“This undermines the whole architecture of global security, it allows them to go unpunished so they are destroying everything that they can,” he said, adding that Russia’s leadership was acting like “colonisers from ancient times”.

“It is obvious that the key institution of the world which must ensure the coercion of any aggressor to peace simply cannot work effectively.”[/quote]

Meanwhile Russia has dismissed the graphic footage and witness testimony of grotesque abominations and mass murder and torture as 'Western propoganda'.

So - is Zelenskyy right? Should Russia be expelled from the UN Security Council? If a country is committing criminal acts, doesn't its presence on this council vitiate the chance of it being held responsible by that council?
FreeEmotion April 06, 2022 at 01:20 #678122
Quoting ssu
I was referring to this case:

Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 was a commercial flight shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force over the Black Sea on 4 October 2001, en route from Tel Aviv, Israel to Novosibirsk, Russia. The aircraft, a Soviet-made Tupolev Tu-154, carried 66 passengers and 12 crew members.


I stand corrected: I was not aware of this case, the only similar incident was the suspected TWA 800 flight: but it occurs to me now that they do not clear the skies of commercial airliners before launching missile tests. If it locks on to the wrong target...
FreeEmotion April 06, 2022 at 01:30 #678123
Quoting ssu
I'm not so sure how Curtis LeMay thought about it. He perhaps would have wanted have that nuclear war in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when Russia had only a few ICBMs. He surely saw the "brief but bloody" war something that would prevent from the "long and bloody" war, which is quite dubious.


I see the rationality of Curtis LeMays' view: it would have resulted in submissive, united Russia, prosperous and peaceful. Courage for a soldier is more than courage in battle, it is also courage in peace. I must admit I misjudged him.

Air Force General Thomas Power, who once asked officials at the RAND Corporation why they were concerned about keeping down body counts on both sides in the event of a nuclear conflict. “The whole idea is to kill the bastards,” he cried. “At the end of the war if there are two Americans and one Russian left alive, we win.” (LeMay, who was the model for General Jack D. Ripper in Stanley Kubrick’s classic Dr. Strangelove, thought Power “not stable.”)


https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/trump-daily-intelligence-briefings-history-jfk-cuban-missile-crisis-214521/

FreeEmotion April 06, 2022 at 02:02 #678130
Quoting SMH
The graphic images have led to global condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin and demands he be tried for war crimes.


It appears that the people whom they govern simply do not think. Where are the graphic images from Yemen? We all better hope no-one circulates graphic pictures of corpses in our back yard.

Quoting Wayfarer
So - is Zelenskyy right?


Since you asked the question, I am sure everyone here is aware of the irrationality in singling out one particular member of the UN security council for punishment when other members have 'credible allegations' of various crimes that they have no intention of ever addressing, let alone admitting.

As for Zelenskyy, I do not know what everyone here thinks of his actions, but his frequent absurd statements make him seem like a puppet whose strings are being manipulated from the other side of the world rather than a national leader. I know that I would respect his leadership if he made the choices presented to him earlier. Right now it looks like he is the best person for the job of getting Ukraine destroyed and his people killed.

Can't we come up with some sort of exit strategy for Ukraine at this point that simply makes sense for Ukraine and in its best interest? Will it be the same as Zelenskyys? Why not?

jorndoe April 06, 2022 at 02:22 #678139
Quoting Apollodorus
But according to NATO propaganda, it’s OK for the EU to rebuild and expand the Roman Empire, but not for Russia to resist EU expansion ….


How about asking the Ukrainians? About Ukraine, you know, where they live (and are now bombed)? About what they want?

FreeEmotion April 06, 2022 at 02:42 #678150
As discussed before, an United States of Europe is a threat to the United States of America, which may explain the dynamics of the current situation.
jorndoe April 06, 2022 at 04:14 #678180
Kremlin's website has been on and off for a bit, maybe they're getting hit by hackers.
Sure hope they don't cause any plane crashes.

Russia’s Aviation Authority Switches Back to Pen and Paper After Huge Alleged Cyberattack (Apr 1, 2022)

[tweet]https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1508806372342829064[/tweet]

ssu April 06, 2022 at 05:44 #678196
Quoting FreeEmotion
I see the rationality of Curtis LeMays' view: it would have resulted in submissive, united Russia, prosperous and peaceful.

How can you be certain of that? A nuclear change could have also resulted in just millions of dying yet in a stalemate like in the Korean war and the Soviet Union still persisting with only now the World having experienced a wider nuclear war. And some American cities being destroyed.

Yet a nuclear holocaust wasn't inevitable. Not only did it not happen, but the Soviet Union collapsed and before that there actually was nuclear disarmament. Hence LeMay's "rationality" was not only wrong, but actually quite dangerous.

I think we have to understand that wars aren't inevitable.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 06:04 #678201
Quoting Punshhh
Or he might become more menacing and march across Macedonia, link up with Orban, just keep heading west.


Because this is the rational and intelligent thing to do? I don't think these fears are founded. Putin threatening using nukes is to clarify NATO shouldn't get involved. What else would there be to it? What exactly did he say making you think he meant more?

And the maffia comparison is simply wrong. Has everybody forgot the support the US got in its war on terrorism from Russia? That doesn't fit in the capitalising on weakness part at all.

Remember this:

Carnegie:Putin's pro-American plan was not simply tactical. Putin's policies of support after September 11, including his agreement to an American military presence in Central Asia, represented a significant shift in Russian foreign policy. The potential for breakthrough - for a fundamentally new and improved relationship between Russia and the West - has never been greater.


Also, if we're so keen on peace and avoiding unnecessary deaths is important then one should be wondering why the US is refusing to join the negotiations.

What really pisses me off is how no European government calls it out, while we're the ones that run all the major risks, because of financial risks and energy dependence, right after the Ukrainians.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 06:04 #678202
Quoting jorndoe
How about asking the Ukrainians? About Ukraine, you know, where they live (and are now bombed)? About what they want?

Those who see sphere's of influence as an obvious reality, greater countries dominating weaker ones and annexations of territories of sovereign states as totally justified simply don't care about issues like that.

ssu April 06, 2022 at 06:10 #678206
Quoting Benkei
What really pisses me off is how no European government calls it out, while we're the ones that run all the major risks, because of financial risks and energy dependence, right after the Ukrainians.

Being dependent on energy from a totalitarian regime like Putin's Russia, which will use that dependence as a way to imply pressure has been a wrong policy. That energy policy has to be changed. Germany should show resolve in this too. Hopefully it will change it's policies.
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 06:19 #678210
Quoting ssu
And you don't see an obvious lie when it's presented?


Wow. You're going with "It looks like a lie to me, therefore it must be one". Because you're infallible? I don't know if you've come across propaganda before, but the idea is make it look like one thing when it's in fact another. The key pert, for our purposes here, being thatit will look like one thing. So if you just take everything to be the way it looks to be, then you'll fall for every single propaganda piece presented to you.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 06:35 #678216
Quoting Wayfarer
So - is Zelenskyy right? Should Russia be expelled from the UN Security Council? If a country is committing criminal acts, doesn't its presence on this council vitiate the chance of it being held responsible by that council?


That leaves no members in the security council. So no.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 06:44 #678218
Quoting Apollodorus
But according to NATO propaganda, it’s OK for the EU to rebuild and expand the Roman Empire, but not for Russia to resist EU expansion ….


I am not sure what law is broken when countries sign trade deals with the EU, or what harm is done to anyone. To the extent that the EU tries and contribute to stabilizing and repairing the world around it through trade and cooperation, it is doing good work.

Whose skin would be peeled off whose nose if Ukraine joined the EU, pray tell? Antiquity historians?
Punshhh April 06, 2022 at 06:46 #678220
Reply to Benkei
Because this is the rational and intelligent thing to do? I don't think these fears are founded. Putin threatening using nukes is to clarify NATO shouldn't get involved. What else would there be to it? What exactly did he say making you think he meant more?
I agree with you here but for different reasons. That Russia’s army is incompetent with poor equipment. They can’t even occupy Ukraine, so are not going to continue west.
I can’t point out where he said he would go further than Ukraine. But he has given long speeches in which he comes across as wanting to re establish the USSR.

But his proving himself to be a bare faced liar (100,000 troops just happen to be on military exercises on the Ukraine border, we have no intention to invade). His apparent irrational behaviour, the fact that many of his subordinates had no idea he was going to invade. The press conference where he humiliated his chief of staff. The long tables. This was interpreted in the West as someone unhinged with his hand on the nuclear button, who has just invaded a large country with a large army, which he can’t possibly hold, while insisting he wasn’t planning anything of the sort. This has crossed a line in Europe and we will now see a European army built and the awakening of Germany after 70yrs of passivism.

Regarding the mafia point. I refer to Frank’s answer. The mafia are business men, they strike deals and alliances. They had a common enemy with US after 9/11. They sell people services until they become dependent, while they grow rich and powerful and then come for their pound of flesh.

I don’t think the negotiations are likely to go anywhere as the two sides are worlds apart. The US getting involved would not help and could just cause a stand off.

I hear you about European countries not calling it out. The problem is they have been dependent on the US for security and now Russia for gas and oil. They are stuck in the middle and compromised from both sides. Ideally they would have provided their own security over the last generation and avoided becoming dependent on Russia gas and oil. In hindsight we were all asleep at the wheel while Putin was friendly, business like. We even thought he would form some sort of alliance with Europe. But quietly he amassed his forces, his wealth. He was going in the other direction. He fostered that dependency on gas and oil and now he is coming for his pound of flesh.

We know see that nato and EU expansion was becoming an existential threat to Putin. We were blind to it, under the guise of free choice, democracy, prosperity. All good things, but Putin saw it spreading his way. And if the Russian people wanted a piece of it, his grip on power might be threatened.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 06:46 #678221
Quoting ssu
Being dependent on energy from a totalitarian regime like Putin's Russia, which will use that dependence as a way to imply pressure has been a wrong policy. That energy policy has to be changed. Germany should show resolve in this too. Hopefully it will change it's policies.


The EU is build around the idea of economic interdependence as a path to safety. So I disagree. Where we went wrong is not making serious progress in trying to increase economic interdependence with Russia in the 90s when circumstances were right. Instead the West collectively chose to keep treating them as enemies. That was the wrong policy.

And for those saying this wasn't possible: if we could enter into association agreements with Turkey, Moldova and Albania, we sure as hell could've done the same with another corrupt regime.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 06:58 #678224
Quoting Benkei
if we could enter into association agreements with Turkey, Moldova and Albania, we sure as hell could've done the same with another corrupt regime.


And sure as hell, we've done the same. Since 1997, the EU's political and economic relations with Russia have been based on a bilateral Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA). The trade-relevant sections of the PCA aim to promote trade and investment, as well as to develop mutually beneficial economic relations.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 07:00 #678227
Reply to Punshhh I think it's telling it's just the West saying all these things about Putin and Russia, What's ther rest of the world doing? South-America is shaking its head in disbelief because they smell the hypocritical bullshit from miles away. "Sovereignty, sovereignty" cried the USA. "When did that ever matter to you when pursuing regime change in our countries?". India doesn't commit to condemning the war other than reiterating platitudes it's committed to the UN charter.

China does the same. When accused of taking the Russian side because it was sharing Russian disinformation (according to an EU agency), the Chinese responded as follows:

"In the past decades, who has been spreading disinformation to wage war in violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries? Who has been expanding its geographical scope and range of operations that have disrupted regional stability? Who has provoked conflicts that have caused large humanitarian disasters?" the spokesperson asked.

We all know the answer don't we? This is to say, we have no moral standing to condemn Russia, we only have power and it's being exercised to cow the Russians into submission.

Oil-producing countries are not upping production. E.g., they are following through on the treaty obligations they have with Russia which is indirect support of Russia or at least not a condemnation.

The ease with which everybody here just parrots EU, NATO and US talking points is just amazing. The world doesn't revolve around Europe; pay attention to all these different views.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 07:09 #678229
Reply to Olivier5 uhm... https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_in-place

Aside from the fact that I said "association agreement" and not "PCA" and said "90s" and not "naughts", where exactly is it?
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 07:21 #678231
Reply to Benkei https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A21997A1128%2801%29
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 07:22 #678232
Quoting Christoffer
I've explained the logical reasoning behind it


OK, then remind me of the premise. If "Critical thinking is something which needs teaching" is the conclusion of a logical argument - not just an assertion - then there should be a premise (or premises) leading logically to it. Remind me what those premises are, because I must have missed them.

Quoting Christoffer
Interesting, that would mean you're pretty bad at your job since you believe a hell of a lot that you won't elaborate or support in any way, and you should definitely understand that knowledge, or rather beliefs passed down from parents to children is a core part of the social construction of how beliefs manifest and no way near the kind of knowledge that can help people break free from indoctrination and propaganda in a culture.


So because I'm a professor, I should understand the things you think are the case? Why?

Quoting Christoffer
You saying you are right because you claim yourself to be a professor of psychology is a fallacy


I haven't once claimed I'm right because I'm a professor. I haven't claimed I'm right at all, in fact. I've said that the evidence to support your position is lacking. But I'm talking about your response to that fact (which you asked me, by the way. I didn't offer it as an ad verecundiam - you asked me about my qualifications). If you say "you know it's illegal to burn the Union Jack", and someones say "I'm a professor of Law and actually it isn't", it's not a normal reaction to say "you must be one of those bad professors who are sacked because they don't know what they're talking about!". The normal reaction is to say "Oh really, I was sure it was illegal, weird...". You, however, haven't even broken stride.

Quoting Christoffer
nothing of what you argue seems to rhyme with the actual knowledge you present yourself to be an expert in.


How would you know? That would require you to simultaneously believe that I am, in fact, a professor of Psychology, and yet you know that body of knowledge better than I do. Even if you too were a professor of Psychology (or perhaps something like Education, maybe) then the best you could claim is that you have as good a grasp as I do of that canon. Do you not see how odd it is to claim that something a professor says is wrong because it doesn't tally with what you think you know. It would be far less odd to simply claim I'm lying about being a professor. Honestly, I would have been far less intrigued by your response if you'd have just said "No you're not". You've got no strong reason to believe me. But you didn't, and that's the fascinating bit. You went for believing me, but simultaneously still believing that you know more than I do about the subject.

Quoting Christoffer
do you have a valid or reasonable argument?


Yes. I've studied how people learn and how they solve problems, particularly very young children and from what I've studied I've no reason to believe that critical thinking skills need teaching. I've every reason to believe that critical thinking is a normal part of human mental processing which is costly and so usually suppressed in situations of scarcity.

Now you could just claim I'm lying, and I've done no such study. That would at least make sense. I could present you with all the case studies and papers (although clearly not on this thread - it would be way off topic). What doesn't make any sense is you believing the first claim, but then assuming I must be one of those 'bad' professors because I'm not saying what you think is the case.

Quoting Christoffer
Are you telling me that nothing of this can be taught to people?


Yes. Pretty much. Compared to simply removing the conditions of scarcity and allowing people to think for themselves, teaching these skill pedagogically has virtually no measurable effect.

Quoting Christoffer
In basic form, teaching epistemology will show students that there's more to a claim, truth, fact or argument, even done by yourself, than just accepting it as plain truth.


People already know that. I've studied six month old babies who are aware of that.

Quoting Christoffer
If there's no need for education, why don't you just quit your job then?


I did, but I was primarily a researcher. Teaching was an annoyance.

Quoting Christoffer
Yes, that can be true with educated parents of nations with less corruption or state-controlled information. But religious and authoritarian societies are very much existing in a lot of places in the world and that's when this type of method falls flat and becomes indoctrination through tradition. Five generations of people living inside the truth of an authoritarian regime does not learn to question anything if all their knowledge comes from parents already indoctrinated. It becomes a feedback loop for them, with no keys to break out of that loop.


I agree. Certainly in early industrial and agricultural societies, as well as in religious communities, education is a form of indoctrination. I've already said this. But it's exactly the same with schools in those communities too. The method is not relevant. The material causes of those societies being that way are.

Quoting Christoffer
Then why haven't those nations already done it? What are they natively lacking which has prevented this? — Isaac


One part can be that they don't have any teachers for this type of educational form. So those teachers need to be educated first.


Why? Why don't they already have the critical thinking skills from their own rich cultural heritage?

Quoting Christoffer
Just throw the books at them and they'll learn? Yeah, right


Yeah. Right.

Again, you're so sure of your beliefs that you think you can just dismiss any challenges to them with "yeah, right". It is true. I've studied children who have learned everything from reading, writing and maths through to advanced computer skills, science and even basic medicine without any pedagogic teaching whatsoever. Books and time. Nothing more. Throw in access to experts when they're asked for and you have a complete education system.

Quoting Christoffer
Letting parents teach their own children the same thing they were taught within such nations does not generate anything other than the same servents of those regimes that those parents were taught to be.


Why not? Are all the parents authoritarian too? People are not as stupid as you paint them.

Quoting Christoffer
regarding your opposition to formal education, aren't there a lot of studies showing how important it is for kids to get out of their homes and interact with other people as well as other perspectives than their own or what they've learned at home?


Yes, there are. Nothing about home-education requires children to stay locked in their rooms.

Quoting Christoffer
As an example, is examining a topic with deduction reasoning part of normal human thought? Have you ever met someone who figured out such methods on their own?


Yes and yes.

Quoting Christoffer
And what about those who don't have a high proficiency in logical reasoning? Who tend to always gravitate towards bias or agreeableness of others' opinions without questioning anything. Do you think they will "invent" methods to help them bypass those weaknesses out of thin air?


Yes, if given the space to do so. You assume there are such people, for a start. People who think with strong biases tend to do so because of the mental cost of thinking more critically. Those whose thinking styles make this harder have a higher cost. No amount of education can fix that.

Quoting Christoffer
To say that people of the population of the world today can just let "learning" happen on its own is a pure utopian delusion.


According to whom?

Quoting Christoffer
Didn't you argue for letting nations just be themselves and solve things themselves?


No. Not once.

Quoting Christoffer
Here you mention a lot of interventions by the west


No, I mention lack of interventions by the west. I'm talking about removing debt, removing pecuniary trade barriers, removing support for corrupt regimes... these are not interventions. These are the lack of intervention.

Quoting Christoffer
You'd rather develop some convoluted story about how I've managed to become a professor of Psychology yet still hold the (obviously wrong) beliefs rather than simply come to terms with the possibility you might be wrong. — Isaac


Because you are a professor?


Yes, exactly that. As I said above, it's quite the normal response when someone whom you even strongly suspect of being a professor in a relevant field tells you you might be wrong to assume that you might, in fact, be wrong. It is not normal to assume they must be one of the 'bad' professors because you couldn't possibly be wrong.

Quoting Christoffer
Have you ever examined yourself and your own tools of defense?


Yes. I use the same tools as everybody else. It seems they're extremely difficult, if not impossible, to avoid.

Quoting Christoffer
You are still using your authority as a reason for me to be wrong.


Yes. That's right. Again, it's quite normal practice (assuming you believe me) to consider the possibility that you're wrong if your conclusions are contradicted by an expert in the field. Note this is true even if you too are an expert in the field. It is not normal practice to assume there must be something wrong with them because they don't agree with you.

Quoting Christoffer
None of this has any real arguments behind them, but you are a professor, so therefore your authority as such a professor makes your arguments correct.


You asked me, remember?

Quoting Christoffer
Again, you claim yourself to be an expert, therefore I'm wrong and therefore I need to rethink my conclusions.


Yes. Again, this is completely normal practice. I'm not saying you must agree with me, but your conclusions are not supported by sufficient evidence to be so strongly held as you hold them. It's quite normal for expertise to be used this way (again, assuming you believe me) - even if you too are an expert. It has nothing to do with 'authority' it has to do with respect for time spent studying. It's the same respect I extend to other experts with whom I strongly disagree.

Quoting Christoffer
And now you call everyone else "laymen".


No. In terms of solutions to the Ukraine Crisis, I too am a layman. That's why I'm not interested in offering solutions either. I'm interested in people's support for different solution already offered by experts (including my own support for the solutions I think are best).

Quoting Christoffer
you claim intellectual superiority because you are a professor


I've claimed nothing of the sort. We're 173 pages in, I've not even mentioned my qualifications to this point and you asked me what they were.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 07:52 #678240
Quoting Isaac
Wow. You're going with "It looks like a lie to me, therefore it must be one". Because you're infallible?

No. But you can use your own judgement. Some of the most blatant lies are so obvious.

Or is that too difficult for you to understand?

Quoting Isaac
The key pert, for our purposes here, being thatit will look like one thing. So if you just take everything to be the way it looks to be, then you'll fall for every single propaganda piece presented to you.


Again. Let's look at that picture. Do these look like volunteers, people that have lived in Crimea, yet in the days after the Maidan revolution have taken up arms against the new Ukrainian government? Or do they appear to be Russian soldiers?

User image[/img]



Isaac April 06, 2022 at 07:59 #678246
Quoting ssu
you can use your own judgement. Some of the most blatant lies are so obvious.


Obvious to you. Not so to others, and it's the disagreement between you and those others we're talking about here.

If you say "it's obvious that X", and your interlocutor say " it's obvious that not-X", you can't use the fact that you find X obvious as an argument supporting your position, that's just a restatement of your position, not an argument in favour of it.

Quoting ssu
Do these look like volunteers that have lived in Crimea and have taken up arms against Ukraine after the Maidan revolution? Or do they appear to be Russian soldiers?


They appear to be Russian soldiers. Because they're meant to appear to be Russian soldiers, that's the point of the propaganda image.

Propaganda is something which is presented to appear to be one thing, when it is, in fact, another.

So the fact that they appear to be Russian soldiers is entirely irrelevant. We already know they're going to appear to be Russian soldiers, that's the point. We're trying to establish if they actually are Russian soldiers.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 08:09 #678252
Quoting Benkei
Where we went wrong is not making serious progress in trying to increase economic interdependence with Russia in the 90s when circumstances were right.

What's your argumentation here? As if we didn't want to have trade with Russia? On the contrary, the Europeans would have just loved to have that commerce and trade with Russia, just the same way as we have wanted with China. The idea went, just like with China, that economic prosperity will make these countries have better relations with us. And that they will change to be like us and value things like rule of law and democracy (and the usual stuff).

Quoting Benkei
Instead the West collectively chose to keep treating them as enemies. That was the wrong policy.

What policy are you talking about?

The policy of making the G7 countries to be the G8 countries with Russia?

By NATO making the Partnership for Peace agreement with Russia?

By having a multitude of "resets" in the US-Russian relationship?

Just to take one example of the attitudes...that actually were in hindsight doomed:
In one of his earliest new foreign policy initiatives, President Obama sought to reset relations with Russia and reverse what he called a “dangerous drift” in this important bilateral relationship. President Obama and his administration have sought to engage the Russian government to pursue foreign policy goals of common interest – win-win outcomes -- for the American and Russian people.


To see everything as the fault of us is wrong as there obviously are two sides in this relationship.

Attitudes really changed only after 2014. And now this year.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 08:12 #678255
Reply to Olivier5 Thanks. Weirdly enough that didn't show on their own web page in the overview but does come up if you approach it by region/country here: https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/russia/

In any case, point remains we should've gone further as was argued by several politicians early 2000 to include Russia in "the West". Instead we opted for geopolitical steps and the "encirclement" of Russia against promises made: https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-promise-to-moscow-a-663315.html

Quoting ssu
What policy are you talking about?


See above. The bait and switch policy and flatly lying. Of course, the Russians should've gotten it in writing.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 08:18 #678258
Quoting Isaac
They appear to be Russian soldiers. Because they're meant to appear to be Russian soldiers, that's the point of the propaganda image.

Propaganda is something which is presented to appear to be one thing, when it is, in fact, another.

That's totally illogical and basically a strawman argument. It is Putin who is saying that those forces in the picture are Crimean volunteers.

And there's a massive amount of pictures of similar clothed soldiers suddenly appearing in Crimea simply cannot be propaganda when covered by all the various media and social media output. Just by whom? No, stick really to the example: the pictures of those soldiers were said to be Crimean volunteers by Russia.

You simply have to have common sense here.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 08:26 #678261
Reply to Olivier5 Reply to ssu Talking about narratives. "Kill the brutes" seems like an interesting series which I'm going to watch instead of post. ;-)
ssu April 06, 2022 at 08:39 #678268
Quoting Benkei
Talking about narratives. "Kill the brutes" seems like an interesting series which I'm going to watch instead of post. :wink:

Don't let the denazification of Ukraine disturb you:

“What should Russia do with Ukraine?” published by the news agency RIA Novosti, declares that Russian forces should not draw sharp distinctions between Ukraine’s military and civilians.

“Denazification is necessary when a significant part of the people – most likely the majority – has been absorbed and drawn into politics by the Nazi regime. That is, when the hypothesis “the people are good – the government is bad” does not work,” it states.

The RIA article, written by Timofei Sergeitsev, goes on to say that “a significant part of the popular mass, which are passive Nazis, accomplices of Nazism, is also guilty… War criminals and active Nazis must be punished approximately and demonstratively. Total purification should be carried out.”

Benkei April 06, 2022 at 08:41 #678269
Reply to ssu Why should this disturb me more than Yemen exactly? Or the Iraq war? Tugging at my moral convictions just shows how tribal your own convictions are.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 08:58 #678274
Quoting Benkei
Why should this disturb me more than Yemen exactly?


In a thread about Ukraine one would assume that Ukraine would be discussed.

If we would have a thread about the war in Yemen and somebody would start talking how Saudi Arabia was forced to intervene in the Yemeni civil war, I would use my time to debunk such nonsense. And I wouldn't sit idly by with people "understanding" the motives of the Saudi lead coalition.

Or then if people would say that the war going badly with Saudi Arabia and it's allies is just Iranian propaganda...

But somehow I have the feeling that as the aggressor is the US backed Saudi coalition, there wouldn't be such nonsense declared on that thread.

However in the case where the agressor isn't US backed... :sad:
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 09:31 #678287
Reply to ssu Don't let your selective moral indignation disturb you then.

Meanwhile, genocide in Ethiopia. But the Western countries are falling over each other to be the first to voice paroxysomatic condemnations of Russia's behaviour because at least Ukrainians are white.
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 09:36 #678289
Quoting ssu
It is Putin who is saying that those forces in the picture are Crimean volunteers.


Yes. And it is western media who are presenting that picture saying "look at how much of a liar Putin is". Both are acts of propaganda so we would fully expect both representations to appear to show exactly what they're meant to show.

You present me a picture backing up your claim that Putin is lying about Crimea, then of course it's going to appear to show exactly that. If it didn't, you wouldn't have used it.

All I'm saying is that because of the nature of persuasive imagery, the fact that it appears to show X is not an additional piece of support for it. It was chosen entirely because it appeared to show X. The investigation is into whether it actually does show X. This involves context.

Quoting ssu
stick really to the example: the pictures of those soldiers were said to be Crimean volunteers by Russia.


You gave me one picture. If you want me to comment on the " massive amount" of similar pictures you'll have to post them. Of course, corroborating evidence is one of the things a further investigation would look for. You were talking about a single image.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 10:04 #678299
Quoting Benkei
Why should this disturb me more than Yemen exactly? Or the Iraq war?


Folks here don't care about what disturbs you or not. This is not about you. If you don't care about Ukraine, by all means shut up about it, and write about Ethiopia or Yemen instead.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 10:07 #678301
Quoting ssu
But somehow I have the feeling that as the aggressor is the US backed Saudi coalition, there wouldn't be such nonsense declared on that thread.

However in the case where the agressor isn't US backed... :sad:


Very astute. :grin:
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 10:08 #678302
Reply to Olivier5 Another attempt at cheap point scoring and you suck at it. I suppose your arrogance precludes you from emphatising with people you talk to. I do care about what you think and what disturbs you. I just happen to think you've got a limited view of relevant circumstances are deeply emerged in the western holistic view of general benevolence and being on the right side of history etc.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 10:39 #678313
Quoting Benkei
Don't let your selective moral indignation disturb you then.

Selective?

This is a thread about Ukraine and the only thing you throw is strawman argument and hints that I somehow wouldn't be against the atrocities committed by the Saudi coalition, which basically is quite equivalent to the situation with similar flawed ideas of "sphere's of influence", just as Russia is said to have acted, or forced to act and attack Ukraine.

No, I think it's you who's quite selective here, as I'm perfectly willing to talk about the similar unjust and irresponsible wars and interventions done either by the US neocons or by Saudi-Arabia. Let's have that discussion. But as I said, I don't think nobody will come to the defense of the Saudi lead coalition, start some delusional rant of Shiite Crescent or how evil Iran is. No, that wouldn't happen. But in this thread there are those (not you) who even go so far to argue that actually Putin isn't a dictator. And perfectly seem to if not justify, do see the realpolitik reasons for Russia to attack it's neighbors.

Well, I'm not seeing similar realpolitik reasons for the Saudis to again intervene in the Yemeni politics as they did earlier and just make things worse for the people of Yemen.

In a thread about Ukraine, the counterargument seems to but everything else than what is happening in Ukraine.

And what I oppose is the selectivity in condemning wars of aggression so apparent in this case.
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 10:46 #678315
Quoting ssu
In a thread about Ukraine, the counterargument seems to but everything else than what is happening in Ukraine.


We're not a news service and we're not anyone's personal blog, nor are we your therapist. This is a discussion forum. It's for discussion.

So a thread on Ukraine should expect discussion about the situation in Ukraine. A situation which involves Russia, the US, Europe... The history, authenticity, moral integrity and intentions of all the actors in the current crisis are relevant to the discussion.

If you want to read up on the news or let everyone know how upset you are, I strongly suggest you use the appropriate institutions specialising in those services.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 10:58 #678321
Quoting Isaac
This is s discussion forum. It's for discussion.

Yes, and if someone says things that seem to be incorrect to me or I disagree with, then one should point it out.

FYI, the thread about the Corona-virus has also been informative. People have put their links to interesting articles and interviews. If you have a discussion, it's quite understandable to make your case be referencing your conclusions. At first I thought it likely was more of a scare as epidemics coming from Asia have been earlier in this Century. @Benkei corrected me on that and I stood corrected. It isn't some kind of contest.

I don't understand what your opposition to that is.

Quoting Isaac
If you want to read up on the news or let everyone know how upset you are, I strongly suggest you use the appropriate institutions specialising in those services.

If you want to see how upset people can be in this forum, check up the threads about the George Floyd killing and police violence in general. That was heated.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 11:02 #678323
Quoting Isaac
You gave me one picture. If you want me to comment on the " massive amount" of similar pictures you'll have to post them. Of course, corroborating evidence is one of the things a further investigation would look for. You were talking about a single image.

The point is that you can use common sense. It's not all that blurry and utterly confusing that you cannot make sense of it.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 11:20 #678328
Quoting Benkei
Meanwhile, genocide in Ethiopia. But the Western countries are falling over each other to be the first to voice paroxysomatic condemnations of Russia's behaviour because at least Ukrainians are white.

Ah, the race card!

I think I would accept more the distance card here. This is an event happening in the neighboring country to me and for both for me and @Christopher the events have dramatically change the security environment in our countries. This crisis does affect my life directly even if the conflict is between Ukraine and Russia. Your and my country are sending arms to Ukraine, not to Ethiopia. (I remember that Finland did sell few training aircraft to Eritrea earlier)

The war in Ethiopia?

The war in Ethiopia happened mainly because of domestic political reasons. Which is a tragedy as Ethiopia was making some economic progress and was becoming more stable, although people more informed about the situation in the country did raised alarms. Yes, the Ethiopian government has gotten aid from abroad, again the usefulness of easy-to-use drones directing artillery fire can be noted. And we could also have a discussion just how many military coups there have been in the Sahel and how dire the situation is in Mali and across the region. There the role of France as basically the colonizer that didn't leave is interesting. The "War on Terror" is still going on there, unfortunately.

Again an interesting topic for another thread.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 11:25 #678330
Quoting jorndoe
How about asking the Ukrainians?


I never said Ukrainians shouldn't be asked, did I? But when it comes to something that affects Russia, or any other country, then I think it is proper to ask the people of that country as well.

I don't see why Ukraine should matter more than Russia who has a much larger population.

FreeEmotion April 06, 2022 at 11:36 #678336
Quoting ssu
Yet a nuclear holocaust wasn't inevitable. Not only did it not happen, but the Soviet Union collapsed and before that there actually was nuclear disarmament. Hence LeMay's "rationality" was not only wrong, but actually quite dangerous.

I think we have to understand that wars aren't inevitable.


If there is a nuclear war someday then we have postponed the inevitable to a bigger, more disastrous exchange of nuclear missiles.

If wars are not inevitable lets go for total disarmament, I mean total. Some countries do not have armed forces.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 11:51 #678347
Quoting FreeEmotion
If wars are not inevitable lets go for total disarmament, I mean total. Some countries do not have armed forces.

There's not enough trust between countries for that, unfortunately. And things are now getting just worse as military spending is going to increase.

What can happen and successfully has happened is arms reductions. Let's remember that there were far more nuclear weapons in the end of the Cold War than now. And many of those disposed nuclear warheads ended up as nuclear fuel warming up the cities they were intended to destroy. Positive things can every then and now happen.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 12:08 #678358
Quoting ssu
Ah, the race card!

I think I would accept more the distance card here. This is an event happening in the neighboring country to me and for both for me and Christopher the events have dramatically change the security environment in our countries.


Sure, for people that are "close" ... but how is the United States any closer to Ukraine than Ethiopia or Yemen?

@Benkei is talking about Western countries, which in today's parlance also includes Australia.

You really think it's "distance" and not "skin colour" determining the wildly different reactions to war, or which presumably there's always one side in the wrong and at least somebody is a victim, in different continents?
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 12:10 #678361
Quoting Benkei
I suppose your arrogance precludes you from emphatising with people you talk to.


Not at all. It's your stupidity that has this effect. If all you have to say here is that you don't care about Ukraine, and care much more about Yemen, then feel free to get out of here and start a Yemenite thread.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 12:27 #678368
Quoting ssu
Again. Let's look at that picture. Do these look like volunteers, people that have lived in Crimea, yet in the days after the Maidan revolution have taken up arms against the new Ukrainian government? Or do they appear to be Russian soldiers?


I honestly don't get what you're even trying to argue on this topic of the "little green men".

Are you saying if we catch the US or the Ukrainians in a lie then we can assume everything they say is a lie?

Or when the Americans and Ukrainians do it that's just "winning the information war" and, you see, we need to understand that they have just cause so anything they do is explainable and understandable.

Ukraine and US have been caught in plenty of lies.

And, if we were talking basic military strategy, we'd obviously agree that deception is a large part of military tactics and intelligence services, which (I think it's safe to assume) that you'd argue that American and Ukraine certainly need intelligence services and information campaigns and it's normal deception and lies are used in that.

Of course, makes figuring anything out difficult. But doesn't prove anything about anything.

If I go ahead and demonstrate the US or Ukraine lying about something ... you'd just say that doesn't matter.

So how does this lie, assuming it's a lie, about the little green men matter?

And, in terms of uniforms, army surplus exists and anyone engaged in militia activity is going to want to look like a badass. So, as @Benkei points out the photo proves nothing and could be staged anyways, and Russia has as much right to conduct intelligence operations as anyone else.

US military and intelligence are on the ground in places they shouldn't legally be all the time (in a sovereign country helping and committing acts of war without a declaration of war by congress), media just repeats the euphemism "advising" ... which even if it really was just advice doesn't change the legality of it and committing an act of war.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 12:27 #678369
Quoting boethius
You really think it's "distance" and not "skin colour" determining the wildly different reactions to war,


Is that why you care about the Ukrainians ? Because they are "white"?
boethius April 06, 2022 at 12:42 #678372
Quoting Olivier5
Is that why you care about the Ukrainians ? Because they are "white"?


I care about the Ukrainians because they are people, as well the Yemens and Afghanis and Ethiopians, Uzbeks, Chinese etc.

I also care about the whole world and avoiding nuclear armageddon.

I don't say Ukrainians are more worthy victims than the Afghanis, and I went ahead and posted a news report of babies starving to death in Afghanistan.

It just so happens that Ukrainians are the victims of geopolitical circumstance and great power competition (regardless of which great power you "blame most"), which could actually be resolved by diplomacy based on a realistic understanding of the geopolitical situation.

Since this topic interests me and I've followed it, I have something to contribute.

Again, I have limited time. But my standards don't change.

I also did commit serious time based on the same standards vis-a-vis the Afghan war during times when I had something to contribute to hopefully avoiding disaster (all the way back in 2006), much more effort than I have expended here and placing myself at risk of court martial in trying to represent the Afghani interests in the chain of command.

There are a lot of problems, I have limited time to contribute and must decide based on circumstances and my own capacities.

By happenstance, I even happened to be involved in business in Ethiopia when the war was brewing and did try to help avoid it in whatever small ways I was able to. But I was told again and again that the Tigray forces couldn't possibly win and there was no need for diplomacy and the war was in the North and would never affect the NGO's in the south I had some business with. So, within my tiny amount of power I did try to motivate people that had (certainly more than me) influence in Ethiopia to not dismiss the disruption and potential damages of a war (which they did offhand and no hesitation before, and then even the initial phases of the war; even though it seemed obvious to me the situation was more serious). So, I do what can when I can.

I am as disturbed by war and saddened by the victims of war (or about to be victims of war) wherever they are and I act on that concern whenever I can.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 12:43 #678373
Quoting Olivier5
I am not sure what law is broken when countries sign trade deals with the EU, or what harm is done to anyone. To the extent that the EU tries and contribute to stabilizing and repairing the world around it through trade and cooperation, it is doing good work.

Whose skin would be peeled off whose nose if Ukraine joined the EU, pray tell? Antiquity historians?


I'm not sure what "Antiquity historians" has got to do with this, unless you are referring to those in the EU junta whose noses would fall off if Russia, the Mid East, and Africa didn't join their empire-building project. :smile:

Plus, the EU project isn't quite as simple as "stabilizing and repairing the world around it through trade and cooperation".

1. The Roman Empire was a predatory entity whose main purpose was to serve the interests of Rome. Rome enslaved and destroyed many nations along with their language and culture, and left millions dead in its wars of conquest. So, I for one wouldn't look at Rome as a model for 21st century international relations.

2. Trade and cooperation can be, and often is, used to make economically weaker countries dependent on stronger ones.

3. Countries can perfectly well cooperate with one another without joining a superstate controlled by big bankers, industrialists, and their political stooges.

4. EU membership hasn't benefited all member states equally. The main beneficiaries have been larger countries like England (until 2020), Germany, and France that already had strong economies. Weaker economies like Spain, Italy, Greece, have benefited less and have much higher unemployment rates, for example.

5. There is growing resistance to EU domination of member states' national policies. England has already left for that very reason, and there is strong opposition in other countries, including France. So, we shouldn't pretend that there are no problems with the EU.

Anyway, my point was that the EU's self-declared aim of rebuilding the Roman Empire tends to be seen as commendable but Russia's alleged intention to "rebuild the Russian Empire" is indicted as some kind of crime.

At the end of the day, if the EU has a "right" to build an empire for itself at the expense of others, so have Russia, Germany, Greece, etc. But it looks like the skin on some people's nose would peel off if the Germans decided to rebuild their empire .... :wink:

Moreover, from a broader perspective, the real dominant power is not the EU but America who, as we have seen, controls most of the world's finances, economies, and media. EU and NATO are products of Atlanticism (a.k.a. Transatlanticism) a US project that obviously serves US interests.

As with the EU, there is no logical reason why America should be allowed to push its interests and build a worldwide economic, financial, and military empire for itself, at the expense of other countries.

IMO the interests of true freedom and democracy would be served much better by a multipolar world order based on free and independent countries and continents instead of a worldwide American empire. This seems to be the view of non-Western powers like Russia, China, India, and many African and Latin American countries, i.e., the majority of the world population ....




boethius April 06, 2022 at 12:48 #678377
Quoting Apollodorus
Anyway, my point was that the EU's self-declared aim of rebuilding the Roman Empire tends to be seen as commendable but Russia's alleged intention to "rebuild the Russian Empire" is indicted as some kind of crime.


Although the Third Reich called itself that for exactly this reason, and I would definitely agree there's plenty imperialist agendas within the EU, where does the EU self declare its aim as rebuilding the Roman Empire?

However, I do agree that if you're in favour of American Empire there's little moral grounds to condemn people making competing Empires. Actions by empires could still be condemnable and some Empires "better" than others, but Empire building as such is either just for all or just for none.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 12:51 #678380
Quoting Apollodorus
Anyway, my point was that the EU's self-declared aim of rebuilding the Roman Empire tends to be seen as commendable but Russia's alleged intention to "rebuild the Russian Empire" is indicted as some kind of crime.


Maybe because one is bombing folks, and the other isn't. This may come as a shock but people don't usually appreciate being bombarded, not as much as being traded with.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 12:52 #678381
Quoting boethius
It just so happens that Ukrainians are the victims of geopolitical circumstance and great power competition (regardless of which great power you "blame most"), which could actually be resolved by diplomacy based on a realistic understanding of the geopolitical situation.


Absolutely correct. If the EU and NATO hadn't insisted on unlimited expansion, Russia wouldn't have needed to take back Crimea and occupy Russian-speaking areas in Ukraine.

If Ukraine had any sense it would simply accept Russia's requests and put an end to the conflict. Unfortunately, it can't do that if it gets pushed by America and England to antagonize Russia ....

Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 12:53 #678382
Reply to boethius I think you only care for the Ukrainians because they are white... :-)
jorndoe April 06, 2022 at 13:00 #678384
Quoting Apollodorus
I never said Ukrainians shouldn't be asked, did I? But when it comes to something that affects Russia, or any other country, then I think it is proper to ask the people of that country as well.

I don't see why Ukraine should matter more than Russia who has a much larger population.


Bombing affects Ukrainians.
Ukraine won't be joining NATO (main demand met, and has been for some time now).


By the way, I hear that some of the 4 million refugees are returning to Ukraine.

Quoting Oksana
Everyone there wants to come home.


Isaac April 06, 2022 at 13:02 #678385
Quoting ssu
I don't understand what your opposition to that is.


You're complaining that discussion of the US involvement in Yemen, or Ethiopia is off topic because the thread is about Ukraine. It's not off topic because the US are heavily involved in Ukraine, so their reputation is very relevant.

Also relevant is the response of people to the Ukrainian crisis, the analysis of which involves a comparison to that of other crises.

What's not relevant (to a discussion forum) are endless posts simply pointing out how bad things are, or that stuff has happened. The former is a matter for your therapist, the latter for a news service.

Isaac April 06, 2022 at 13:09 #678388
Quoting ssu
The point is that you can use common sense. It's not all that blurry and utterly confusing that you cannot make sense of it.


I'm just baffled that you don't get this. Do you really not understand the difference between something seeming to you to be the case and something actually being the case?

It doesn't seem all that blurry to you. It seems to make sense to you.

Other people obviously disagree otherwise there wouldn't be any dispute.

If you want to make the argument that "X is the case". "It seems obvious that X is the case" is not evidence in favour of your argument, it's just a restatement of it.

If you want to show that some photo proves "X is the case", you need to provide more than just "this photo seems to me to show that X is the case", we know that. That's presumably why you presented it. What we don't know is why.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 13:09 #678389
Quoting boethius
where does the EU self declare its aim as rebuilding the Roman Empire?


When (“Mr. Europe”) Paul-Henri Spaak signed the Treaty of Rome that established the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1957, the precursor to the EU, he said:

We will rebuild the Roman Empire and this time through the power of ideas, not by force of arms.


In 2020, Carl Baudenbacher, former president of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA), openly admitted that the EU is trying to rebuild the Roman Empire:

Under Trajan the Roman Empire, at its greatest extent, encompassed the entire Mediterranean region, but also parts of present-day Germany, Britain, Romania, Turkey, Syria and Armenia. The European Union is preparing to build a similar empire.


The choice Britain faces if it wants an EU trade deal: either EFTA, or the Ukraine model – LSE Blogtest

Obviously, they aren't going to put that in official documents, but the idea is being discussed unofficially, and has been from inception.

Even without mentioning it, it is clear that the EU project aims to include not only Europe but also the Mid East, North Africa, and all the way to Turkey, Armenia, and beyond. In other words, an enlarged Roman Empire.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 13:13 #678390
Quoting Isaac
It's not off topic because the US are heavily involved in Ukraine, so their reputation is very relevant.


Apparently, it is "off topic" because @ssu says so ... :grin:
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 13:24 #678394
Quoting jorndoe
By the way, I hear that some of the 4 million refugees are returning to Ukraine.


Well, good on them. IMO they shouldn't have left in the first place and that Zelensky comedian should've listened to more pragmatic and experienced people instead of blindly listening to his US-UK advisers.

Obviously, he didn't know what he was doing as he and his media crew had zero knowledge of politics and even less of international relations. Don't forget that his approval ratings were down to about 30% just before the invasion. And that was because he had proved to be totally incompetent ....

Punshhh April 06, 2022 at 13:28 #678397
Reply to Benkei I’m equally outraged about the war crimes and starvation in Yemen. The horrors in Somalia, Sudan and now in Ethiopia. I was up in arms about the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent destruction of Syria. The fate of the Kurds is shocking. The list goes on.

I’m well aware of the problems caused by US foreign policy over the last 70yrs. Also how shamelessly the U.K. jumps when the US says jump.

The big story for me about the Ukraine invasion is how it is galvanising the EU and the awakening of Germany to the need to secure its own security. And that we might now have a new iron curtain constructed on the perimeter of Europe.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 13:31 #678398
Quoting Apollodorus
When (“Mr. Europe”) Paul-Henri Spaak signed the Treaty of Rome that established the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1957, the precursor to the EU, he said:


Well, put this way, definitely sounds a lot like the Fourth Reich to me too.

Quoting Apollodorus
Obviously, they aren't going to put that in official documents, but the idea is being discussed unofficially, and has been from inception.

"We will rebuild the Roman Empire and this time through the power of ideas, not by force of arms."


Hopefully such intentions and plans could be modified by democratic process and these are, in the end, opinions of a small amount of individuals that could be thwarted others.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 13:38 #678399
Quoting Olivier5
I think you only care for the Ukrainians because they are white.


You seem to think these observations are levied at individuals and just opinion of internal belief.

That's not the claim.

The claim about Ukrainians being white is to do with the establishment media and response of Western Governments, concrete evidence and actions and not just presumed state of mind.

These things can be quantified in how much reporting there is and what policies and actions are taken about different conflicts.

We abandon Afghani "allies" and then let them starve to death. Obviously that warrants attention and public discussion, and there is some, but a small and tiny fraction of the effort spent on Ukraine ... and basically no government action at all. It is obvious there is a double standard and it is obvious that skin colour has something to do with it. You can live in denial or then assume "everyone is racist" and mentioning obviously racist policies just has some ulterior motive if you want.
frank April 06, 2022 at 13:41 #678401
Quoting Benkei
China does the same. When accused of taking the Russian side because it was sharing Russian disinformation (according to an EU agency), the Chinese responded as follows:

"In the past decades, who has been spreading disinformation to wage war in violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries? Who has been expanding its geographical scope and range of operations that have disrupted regional stability? Who has provoked conflicts that have caused large humanitarian disasters?" the spokesperson asked.


Benkei! You know too well how China deals with destabilizing forces. They re-educate. They do exactly the same things they did during the their revolution, where they take scientists and make them work as janitors.

I'm sure the middle east would be more stable after the Chinese got through with it, but it's because they only have a flimsy idea of human rights.

I'm not saying the US is some sort of Good Guy. Yes, what it did to Central America was abysmal. They destroyed any leftist aspirations there and replaced it with an elite that gave way to organized crime. Then when societies imploded and their children showed up on the US border, Americans were confused about why Central Americans can't organize their affairs better.

But the US is a minor figure in world history. A footnote. It's not the worst thing that ever happened. What some historians will note is that the US carried forward the imprint of the British. They are not a footnote. They'll get a whole chapter.

Punshhh April 06, 2022 at 13:43 #678403
Reply to Apollodorus There are a lot of analysts and commentators who conclude that Putin is a dictator. Certainly the failings of the military is not evidence to the contrary.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 13:46 #678405
Quoting boethius
We will rebuild the Roman Empire and this time through the power of ideas, not by force of arms.


Sure, why use force of arms when it's much easier to use economic, financial, and legislative means?

But, however implemented, the concept remains the same, i.e., one power dominating others for its own purposes.

And, as I said already, Germany rebuilding its empire, or even the Western Roman Empire to which it is arguably the legitimate heir, is out of the question because it would offend @Olivier5, Macron, and many others whose noses, God forbid, might start peeling or even falling off altogether .... :wink:


boethius April 06, 2022 at 14:03 #678412
Quoting Apollodorus
Sure, why use force of arms when it's much easier to use economic, financial, and legislative means?


This was a miss formatting of your quote of the person saying "We will rebuild the Roman Empire and this time through the power of ideas, not by force of arms," and not my repeating on behalf of myself (I've corrected the formatting in the original comment).

However, I totally agree that such a plan is possible, and the US Empire is largely based on economic, financial and legal means of domination and far less on direct military conquest.

And indeed, direct military intervention nowadays is not even used to conquer and extract resources and tribute as in Empires past, but simply to topple anyone who steps out of line into a disastrous civil war and, if things go well, a failed state.

And I would agree that some people involved in the European project have a similar ambition for Europe, but I would not say the European project reduces to that and has no (at least for the moment) democratic recourse to shape policy.

Additionally, at the moment anyways, the EU is still a voluntary based organisation (which Brexit does prove), and consensus driven on at least some critical issues. So, it is far closer to a diplomatic project than an Empire, at least for now and even if some people involved have Imperial ambitions.

Getting back to geopolitics, my general view is that the world can, for the time being, only hope to share great power politics and competition to be less, rather than more, harmful. For example avoiding nuclear war in the cold war wold be a geopolitical "success" from this realist point (it can always be worse, even if the great power system is pretty "bad" in itself).

So, if that's the case, shaping better rather than worse great power policies is a fruitful task in parallel to trying to undermine Imperialism as such and to also build alternative economic and political systems that could one day displace great power competition.

For example, however much I criticise the Americans and point out the damages they cause around the world (that includes pursuing omnicidal climate chaos ambitions, so pretty bad and heinous) that USA and the Soviet Union beat Germany and Japan, I nevertheless view as a geopolitical "good outcome". That being said, doesn't mean USA being better than the Nazi's 70 years ago makes them "better" in some sense today, but the example is to highlight the outcomes of great power competition does matter.

Today, of the great powers, EU is the most peaceful and democratic, and I rather see the expansion of such a system than the Chinese total totalitarian system. Of course, I'd rather see neither but true participatory direct democracy everywhere, but, until the "ground up" approach manages to compete with the great state powers, it does still matter what the great states do and some are more and less oppressive.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 14:09 #678417
Quoting boethius
These things can be quantified in how much reporting there is and what policies and actions are taken about different conflicts.

We abandon Afghani "allies" and then let them starve to death.


For your info, the right term for someone from Afghanistan is "Afghan". "Afghanis" are their currency.

We can also quantify how many words YOU wrote on TPF about the war in Ukraine vs that in Ethiopia or the famine in Afghanistan. If CNN is racist because they cover Ukraine more than Ethiopia, what does that make of YOU, who also cover Ukraine far more than Ethiopia?
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 14:11 #678419
Quoting Punshhh
There are a lot of analysts and commentators who conclude that Putin is a dictator. Certainly the failings of the military is not evidence to the contrary.


I'm sure there are, but many analysts and commentators have their own agendas and biases. Plus, Russia has never had any other kind of leader, so though Putin may be described as a "dictator" in a West European context (depending on the definition), he is pretty standard in a Russian context. Don't forget that Russia has a parliament and people are allowed to vote, and Putin and his party still have the backing of many Russians.

As for military failings, IMO if a leader invests billions in his country's armed forces, and his kleptocratic subordinates use the money to buy themselves superyachts and villas, then clearly he can't have "absolute control".

But I agree with you that the fate of the Kurds and others is shocking and totally unacceptable. And it's happening with NATO's approval.

When Turkey invaded Kurdish territory in Syria in 2019, NATO secretary general Stoltenberg said:

Minister Cavusoglu and I also discussed Turkey´s ongoing operation in Northern Syria … Turkey has legitimate security concerns … Turkey is a great power in this great region and with great power comes great responsibility… - NATO Joint press conference, 11 Oct. 2019


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_169576.htm?selectedLocale=en

So, according to NATO's jihadi narrative, it’s OK for Turkey to invade and occupy Kurdish lands, but not for Russia to invade Ukraine, or even to take back Crimea which has always been Russian ....

Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 14:12 #678420
Quoting Apollodorus
I'm not sure what "Antiquity historians" has got to do with this, [...]

1. The Roman Empire was a predatory entity


"Antiquity historians" had to do with folks who keep talking of the Roman empire again and again.

Quoting Apollodorus
IMO the interests of true freedom and democracy would be served much better by a multipolar world order based on free and independent countries and continents instead of a worldwide American empire. This seems to be the view of non-Western powers like Russia, China, India, and many African and Latin American countries, i.e., the majority of the world population ....
1h


Add me and most pro EU folks to that list. A strong EU provides an alternative to a unipolar world.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 14:34 #678425
Quoting Olivier5
For your info, the right term for someone from Afghanistan is "Afghan". "Afghanis" are their currency.


Thanks.Quoting Olivier5
We can also quantify how many words YOU wrote on TPF about the war in Ukraine vs that in Ethiopia or the famine in Afghanistan. If CNN is racist because they cover Ukraine more than Ethiopia, what does that make of YOU, who also cover Ukraine far more than Ethiopia?


This forum is one of many avenues of action available, and my time is limited in any event.

And again, the claims about racism aren't claims of internal state of mind or individuals time use, but rather about institutions that do have time and resources and simply objectively implement a skin colour based double standard.

There are many victims of many unjust things. Individually, people, if they care at all, can only do so much and are quickly path dependent on the causes they are already engaged in and know something about. So, sure, call someone bad faith for not having infinite time for every just cause that exists.

However, media and political institutions are far more powerful and have far more resources (including rational resources to decide on resource allocation) and ability to manipulate people's perspective of the world. More importantly, such institutions are political accountable, one way or another, for what they do whereas individuals are not really accountable for failing to address every single problem in the world with time that doesn't exist.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 14:38 #678427
Reply to frank

China is a fucking hellhole, which is why I try not to spend any of my money there. I guess my point is really that we're complaining about something that we think is "horrible" but we've done everything to normalise that in the past 60 odd years (and actually way before that). That's the West in its entirety not just the US of A. So aside from the complicity in this specific war due to the proxy war that was going on well before that, we're complicit in undermining the rule-based order we thought we could finally agree on, which means nobody but the West feels the need to condemn Russia.

I think that's telling and says something about how much of that condemnation is a narrative that is not universally shared.

And while as a human rights lawyer I do strongly believe in a rule-based international order, I'm afraid it's too much of a "western" construct to survive long term.

Quoting ssu
Ah, the race card!

I think I would accept more the distance card here. This is an event happening in the neighboring country to me and for both for me and Christopher the events have dramatically change the security environment in our countries. This crisis does affect my life directly even if the conflict is between Ukraine and Russia. Your and my country are sending arms to Ukraine, not to Ethiopia. (I remember that Finland did sell few training aircraft to Eritrea earlier)

The war in Ethiopia?


They know how to find their way to Europe just fine. Where was takecarebnb for them? It is racism. But not surprising the majority is blind to it when our legacy is genocide and slavery which reverberates into today's world both in how we "look at the other", define ourselves as righteous and breach the rules we claim others should adhere to. I mean the US entered into 500 treaties with indigenuous native americans and broke them all and when Russia says "pay in rubles" it's "that's a breach of treaty!".

The US breaks the UN Charter when it suits them. They break their own laws when it suits them. This trust in "Western governments" as some force of good is just complete bullshit. All governments are shit and some are just less shit than others. Democracy and fairness are a constant struggle, requires an engaged populace and access to information. The latter is quickly deteriorating in the West and engagement with people who think differently is pretty much down the drain.

So honestly I really can't bring myself to the level of condemnation the pro-NATO crowd levies at the Russians when it's really nothing different from what our own governments would do in exactly the same circumstance. Reap what you sow.

Speaking of breaking treaties. Guess who is militarising space due to changes in policies? You get two tries!
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 14:39 #678428
Quoting boethius
Today, of the great powers, EU is the most peaceful and democratic, and I rather see the expansion of such a system than the Chinese total totalitarian system.


I agree that the EU system is preferable to that of China, but I think "peaceful and democratic" is relative.
Certainly, in demographic, cultural, and other respects, the EU is far from all positive.

Some may argue that many EU countries have a falling population coupled with rising numbers of non-European migrants, English is replacing other languages, US-manufactured guns-and-drugs "culture" is replacing traditional European culture, etc., etc.

Plus, the EU and its agenda are becoming more and more identical with NATO, a military organization (the world's largest, actually) that is known to have engaged in aggressive behavior.

So, I for one still think that a multipolar world order based on free and independent countries and continents would be the ideal to aim for.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 14:46 #678431
Also, as a consideration, blockades used to be an act of war but that was in the time when there wasn't really something like foreign direct investment, which meant the trade balance was incredibly important. Now amending the system in such a way that capital flows are no longer possible, does it give rise to blockade?

Note that this has been previously argued in other cases, like the US blockade of Cuba.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 14:47 #678432
Quoting Apollodorus
I agree that the EU system is preferable to that of China, but I think "peaceful and democratic" is relative.
Certainly, in demographic, cultural, and other respects, the EU is far from all positive.


Why I say "the most" peaceful and democratic, of the great powers. A choice between limited options.

Quoting Apollodorus
Plus, the EU and its agenda are becoming more and more identical with NATO, a military organization (the world's largest, actually) that is known to have engaged in aggressive behavior.


I agree that the EU did not take advantage of a world leadership vacuum (in the sense of great power competition) created by Trump, but just lazed about waiting for neo-con and neo-liberal policy to "return".

I mean only to argue the EU has potential to play a more peaceful and democratic global roll than China, Russia and United States.

However, it so far seems to express no interest in that and seems completely content to be subservient to US foreign policy, with rare exceptions, even suffering great harms to itself in promotion of the harms US imposes on others (join and cheer on disastrous US lead wars that lead to terrorism, economic and refugee problems in Europe and not the US ... indeed, seem the only purpose is to keep Europe unstable, weaker, and focused on internal problems that wouldn't otherwise exist without neighbour's being bombed to shit).

So, I wouldn't say I'm happy about EU and the European small powers policy, and I agree the moment seems to be passing anyways, but what I don't see is another great power politics player that's a better bet.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 14:48 #678433
Quoting Olivier5
A strong EU provides an alternative to a unipolar world.


Not if the EU is dominated economically, financially, politically, and militarily by America. Don't forget that the EU doesn't even have its own armed forces and is totally dependent on America.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 15:03 #678440
Quoting boethius
it so far seems to express no interest in that and seems completely content to be subservient to US foreign policy, with rare exceptions, even suffering great harms to itself in promotion of the harms US imposes on others


The EU could have been a good idea if had been based (a) on equality between its members and (b) on independence from the US.

Unfortunately, after WW2, and to some extent after WW1 and even before, everyone ganged up on Germany, which had been Europe's natural dominant power, geographically, economically, and militarily.

The elimination of Germany as a European power created a vacuum that was filled by America in the west of the continent and by Russia in the east.

The logical thing to do now would be to restore Germany as a military and political power that would keep Russia in its place and America out of Europe. This seems to be the only way to make Europe a real power to balance US hegemony and make the whole world order more equitable and more democratic.

ssu April 06, 2022 at 15:13 #678443
Quoting boethius
You really think it's "distance" and not "skin colour" determining the wildly different reactions to war, or which presumably there's always one side in the wrong and at least somebody is a victim, in different continents?

If a war effects for example your work, I think it's obviously more important for you than something that just notice every once in a while in the papers.

Quoting boethius
I honestly don't get what you're even trying to argue on this topic of the "little green men".

Are you saying if we catch the US or the Ukrainians in a lie then we can assume everything they say is a lie?

Of course not! In fact it seems that others have these kind of ideas.

What I'm saying is that one can use common sense and notice the most clumsy and most obvious lies. Because the fact is, which I remember quite vividly, was that the journalist covering the Crimean invasion didn't dare to say for days just who the forces were...because they didn't have the Russian flag and Putin said that they weren't Russian soldiers, but Crimean volunteers.

The idea that you cannot say anything, absolutely anything and you cannot use your head in these cases is a silly counterargument.

ssu April 06, 2022 at 15:31 #678447
Quoting Isaac
It's not off topic because the US are heavily involved in Ukraine, so their reputation is very relevant.

Then make the revelant link by all means.

Just as I made the the link that the decision for Saudi-Arabia to intervene in the Yemen Civil War was as stupid and disastrous as the idea for Russia to invade Ukraine. MBS saw "the threat" of Yemen sliding into the "sphere of influence" of Iran as a reason to start a war against the Houthis, just like Putin saw "the threat" of Ukraine falling under the influence of the US a reason to enlarge a current war against "the nazis". Both cases a hypothetical arguments was given as a reason for war and colossal mistakes were made about how the war would go. For MBS the war didn't go by planned, ended up being bogged down, being very costly to the Saudi military and resulted in famine and utter destruction in Yemen.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 15:35 #678452
Quoting ssu
If a war effects for example your work, I think it's obviously more important for you than something that just notice every once in a while in the papers.


Sure, but the comment was about Western nations generally, not individuals personally affected.

Quoting ssu
What I'm saying is that one can use common sense and notice the most clumsy lies. Because the fact is, which I remember quite vividly, was that the journalist covering the Crimean invasion didn't dare to say for days just who the forces were...because they didn't have the Russian flag and Putin said that they weren't Russian soldiers, but Crimean volunteers.


Again, can't say its clumsy lies without proof; and journalists not reporting what they can't prove is pretty usual.

You seem to believe there's some constituency denying the "little green men" ... it's more just doesn't seem to matter at all.

If stone cold proof dropped tomorrow that the picture is indeed of Russian soldiers on salary under the Russian chain of command ... what does that change? This just isn't the lie of the century and no one doubts Russian involvement and backing of the separation of Crimea.

Journalists didn't report things without proof (like they do now reporting war crimes and who's guilty before any investigation at all) ... which isn't some great crime journalists sticking to what's proven, isn't unusual, and isn't Russian appeasement of some sort, nor does anyone much care who these soldiers were "really working for" as it changes nothing, just frustrates anti-Russian parties wanting any accusation against Russia to be taken at face value.

Certainly Russia has done "bad things" and have "lied" ... well, like the US and like Ukraine, but it still matters what the actual facts, or to what extent they can be inferred, in understanding the world.

For example, it actually matters which war crimes exactly US committed in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere, as it does Russia as does Ukraine.

However, that the US first denied torture and starting a war on fabricated evidence, and then got caught in that lie, doesn't mean absolutely every accusation against the US should be taken at face value, likewise for Russia and likewise for Ukraine.

Unfortunately, the great powers (in particular US, China and Russia) lie all the time, but for the purposes of analysis the facts still matter and also actual proof still matters.

And, in the case of the takeover / invasion of Crimea I don't think anyone reported that Russia was not backing it. However, Crimean's also have agency and many and I've seen no credible doubt cast on the legitimacy of the vote of Crimean's to leave Ukraine after the 2014 coup.

So, although I, and I don't think really anyone concerned about this topic, would doubt Russia involvement (they literally have a military base there and certainly have intelligence agents in and around it since decades), the idea absolutely everyone walking around must be Russian soldiers and to say otherwise is a lie, plays into the idea that Crimean agency and self determination can be just ignored.

Now, the counter argument is that it wasn't "legal" for Crimea to exit Ukraine ... but shouldn't Crimean's be able to have self-determination? Why does a law outside Crimea matter? Why doesn't what Crimean's want matter?

For, as far as I can tell, there's no credible claim that Crimea and the Dombas regions aren't genuinely pro Russian, but a narrative of "what they want" not mattering in the contest between the far larger powers they are between ... hmmm, starting to sound a bit familiar.

That being said, I have zero problem with the idea Russia backed Crimea separation and annexation and Dombas regions declaring independence. It's a sovereign country so, presumably, can do what it wants, and, presumably, can also have clandestine operations to protect it's interests just like the USA and Ukraine.

All of which underscores @Benkei's really good breakdowns of why legalism doesn't apply to international relations.

If Ukraine has a right to self determination and so Russia is wrong in invading, then Crimea and Dombas regions have a right to self determination and Ukraine is wrong in refusing to recognise that and then attacking those regions, which makes Russia right in intervening to protect the rights of self determination of those people if they request it, just as, if you disagree and Ukraine has original just cause because only their right to self determination matters, then NATO is justified in sending arms and sending advisors to help Ukraine if Ukraine requests it.

Legal reasoning simply breaks down because there is no state to enforce the law when the perpetrator is a state with hundreds or thousands of nuclear weapons, or just a few, or indeed just a credible conventional deterrent, or then just no one cares to attack that particular country to enforce any rules anyways.

What does the delusion of legal reasoning applied to great power politics produce? Challenging the UN security council to fix the situation or "disband", kick Russia out because it's ... exactly like ISIS.

It's simply delusional and not how the world works. Normal people empathise because legal reasoning is relevant in normal life when one is effectively chaperoned by the state, and moral outrage can immediately translate to sympathy from friends if not cancelling the objects of dissatisfaction on social media or even the state doing something about it. More importantly, legalistic gripes are the only gripes anyone pays any real attention to for ordinary citizens, as maybe it is an issue of social concern according to society's own rules.

However, who's not listening to legalistic gripes are the great powers in complaining about each other.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 15:40 #678453
Quoting Apollodorus
Not if the EU is dominated economically, financially, politically, and militarily by America.


Good thing it's not

frank April 06, 2022 at 15:42 #678454
Quoting Benkei
guess my point is really that we're complaining about something that we think is "horrible" but we've done everything to normalise that in the past 60 odd years (and actually way before that).


I think the situation is more complicated than that, but I'm thinking we probably can't discuss that.



ssu April 06, 2022 at 15:44 #678456
Quoting Benkei
So honestly I really can't bring myself to the level of condemnation the pro-NATO crowd levies at the Russians when it's really nothing different from what our own governments would do in exactly the same circumstance.

Your government fought in Afghanistan for 20 years. In quite similar circumstances against many times the same enemy as the Russians had.

And what seems to irritate many here is that I point to the fact that the Russian way of war ended up killing far more civilians than the West, including the Dutch contingent. Otherwise a similarly futile war. So there's that issue of only difference in scale.
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 15:47 #678457
Quoting ssu
one can use common sense and notice the most clumsy and most obvious lies.


Yes, we get what you're saying. What's lacking is an argument. If you say "it's common sense that X is the case" and I say "its common sense that X isn't the case", then how has you're assertion that we can use common sense to determine whether X is the case, been shown to be anything other than false?

Quoting ssu
Then make the revelant link by all means.


I have been doing so.

Quoting ssu
I made the the link that the decision for Saudi-Arabia to intervene in the Yemen Civil War was as stupid and disastrous as the idea for Russia to invade Ukraine.


That's not what I meant by link. It's just a similarity. When I say 'link' I mean causal. The US's involvement in Yemen is to sell arms, with disastrous effect. We're seeing them trying to do the same in Ukraine. We should fear the same disastrous effect.
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 15:48 #678459
Quoting ssu
I point to the fact that the Russian way of war ended up killing far more civilians than the West


How are you measuring that?
ssu April 06, 2022 at 15:49 #678460
Quoting boethius
Sure, but the comment was about Western nations generally, not individuals personally affected.

No, the question that Benkei assumed was that people would have more interest on the plight of Ukrainians because they are white than with the plight of black Africans.

When you are individually affected, even if it's nothing dramatic, you do notice that the events are quite real. Not just an article on page 5.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 15:49 #678461
Quoting ssu
No, the question that Benkei assumed was that people would have more interest on the plight of Ukrainians because they are white than with the plight of black Africans.


Seems a true statement about Western nations and a majority of people in them to me.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 15:51 #678462
Quoting ssu
When you are individually affected, even if it's nothing dramatic, you do notice that the events are quite real. Not just an article on page 5.


Again, most people in "Western countries" aren't personally affected, it is purely empathy driven to demand heaven and earth be moved to help the victims even at the risk of nuclear war and even if impulsive emotional driven policy is counter productive to helping the Ukrainians ... empathy that does not appear for black Africans, nor much outrage and concern, and much less any significant actions.

Another way to put it is why are these other issue on page 5?

We spend 20 years "rebuilding Afghanistan" and brining democracy, and then leave our "allies" to fall to their deaths from our planes as we GTFO, and then let them starve to death.

Why page 5 news?
ssu April 06, 2022 at 15:55 #678463
Quoting Isaac
How are you measuring that?

By the looking at various estimates of those being killed in the separate wars.

Of course, for you I guess those are just propaganda and you cannot rely on anything what for example the UN says etc.

Quoting boethius
Seems a true statement about Western nations and a majority of people in them to me.

Add in that religion too, obviously. I would assume that people here wouldn't be racists.

Quoting boethius
Again, most people in "Western countries" aren't personally affected, it is purely empathy driven to demand heaven and earth be moved to help the victims even at the risk of nuclear war ... empathy that does not appear for black Africans

But the threat of war, even if still low, has increased.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 16:08 #678469
Quoting Isaac
That's not what I meant by link. It's just a similarity. When I say 'link' I mean causal. The US's involvement in Yemen is to sell arms, with disastrous effect. We're seeing them trying to do the same in Ukraine. We should fear the same disastrous effect.

For those arms deliveries to happen (basically paid by the US taxpayer), you needed Putin to invade in the first place. Hence there's that slight problem in the causal link. Of course you can go with the line that Putin was forced to start a war with Ukraine... which I would disagree with.

If MBS was urged to intervene in Yemen by the US, you should inform me of that. The way it looks like is that the US itself was actually OK with the Houthis fighting Al Qaeda in Yemen, hence MBS didn't inform the US about it's warplans. But once the Saudis attacked, Obama did give him a lot of logistical support and then sold weapons the Saudis.
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 16:12 #678473
Quoting ssu
By the looking at various estimates of those being killed in the separate wars.

Of course, for you I guess those are just propaganda and you cannot rely on anything what for example the UN says etc.


Regardless of the reliability of the estimates, vim wondering why, after all that's been said, you'd think an argument based only on casualty figures would hold any water.

We've been talking for pages and pages about how the US and Europe's approach is far more economic than territorial, so the arguments against them are about the economic impacts.

In this case, you'd be measuring not just collateral damage, but damage from arms sales, regime support, economic sanctions, pecuniary loan terms, welfare cuts, resource theft, unfair trade deals...

I'm not saying how those figures would play out. Russia engages in no small amount of all that thuggery too. My point is that its no secret that 'the west' is the more sophisticated murderer. Comparing collateral damage in war is like comparing a violent criminal to a fraudster. The method by which they kill lends emotional, not rational weight to their crimes.
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 16:13 #678474
Quoting ssu
For those arms deliveries to happen (basically paid by the US taxpayer), you needed Putin to invade in the first place. Hence there's that slight problem in the causal link.


I'm talking about the link between calls for Ukraine to 'keep fighting' and US arms sales (not to mention 'reconstruction' loans and the like)
boethius April 06, 2022 at 16:13 #678475
Quoting ssu
Add in that religion too, obviously. I would assume that people here wouldn't be racists.


You were responding to @Benkei observation about Western countries, not people on this forum.

Quoting ssu
But the threat of war, even if still low, has increased.


Again, no threat to USA, Australia, Germany or France of Italy and most Western nations, of the war spilling over.

More importantly, there's only increased the threat of war for countries neighbouring Russia and threat of nuclear war due to Western emotional reaction to Ukrainian "worthy victims" and that all actions by Ukrainians are just, none of their lies need be talked about and are "just and noble lies" anyways, and any and all actions against Russia are justified ... even if they are counter productive and even if they harm Ukrainians more rather than help them.

This sudden emotional upheaval—rather than page 5 "realist" news saying the war wherever it is, doesn't really matter, is unfortunate, lot's of people suffering but nothing we can do—by the entire West and NATO as a collective political body of some sort, is nearly 100% related to Ukrainians being white.

And, it's only this emotional upheaval that allows states to act impulsively and recklessly in their quest to assuage these emotions.

Which, if you step outside the emotional praxis of legalistic outrage that simply justifies any action that "feels like" it may help Ukrainians and "feels like" it may harm Russia, there are real questions about the wisdom of waging a proxi war and supporting Ukrainians "right to join NATO ... even if it can never actually join NATO".

If you remember back a month and a week, the outrage about Russia's invasion was "how dare they say Ukraine can't join NATO" ... and now we find out that Zelenskyy already asked when they'd be able to join NATO and NATO told him never!?!?

Likewise, now we discover the German Chancellor Scholz went to Ukraine before the war and brought Zelenskyy an offer of security guarantees by Russia and the US if they abandoned NATO aspirations and committed to neutrality?!?!

The only possible resolution of the conflict now agreed by all parties, including Zelenskyy; just far harder to negotiate now after acrimonious bloodshed, and, if reached, the exact same outcome but after insane levels of harms to Ukrainians.

Which, if Zelenskyy actually feared not getting at least billions in arms shipments and intelligence (I'm sure his emotional state would have changed if the US removed their intelligence briefings and the impending war felt less "controlled") and maybe even bait NATO into a no fly zone by handing out small arms to civilians and refusing to evacuate civilians from war zones and other stunts, or (god forbid) actually feared any weakening of anti-Russia policy and "information war", he'd of course maybe considered the offer of peace more seriously.

But who needs peace when you have NATO by your side.

We have been taken for a ride.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 16:17 #678477
Quoting ssu
which I would disagree with.


You can disagree with it but that's the position Russia will take.

Chomsky:

Chomsky:As has been understood for a long time, decades in fact, for Ukraine to join NATO would be rather like Mexico joining a China-run military alliance, hosting joint maneuvers with the Chinese army and maintaining weapons aimed at Washington. To insist on Mexico’s sovereign right to do so would surpass idiocy (and, fortunately, no one brings this up). Washington’s insistence on Ukraine’s sovereign right to join NATO is even worse, since it sets up an insurmountable barrier to a peaceful resolution of a crisis that is already a shocking crime and will soon become much worse unless resolved — by the negotiations that Washington refuses to join.

That’s quite apart from the comical spectacle of the posturing about sovereignty by the world’s leader in brazen contempt for the doctrine, ridiculed all over the Global South though the U.S. and the West in general maintain their impressive discipline and take the posturing seriously, or at least pretend to do so.

...

In brief, a constructive program would be about the opposite of the Joint Statement on the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership signed by the White House on September 1, 2021. This document, which received little notice, forcefully declared that the door for Ukraine to join NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is wide open. It also “finalized a Strategic Defense Framework that creates a foundation for the enhancement of U.S.-Ukraine strategic defense and security cooperation” by providing Ukraine with advanced anti-tank and other weapons along with a “robust training and exercise program in keeping with Ukraine’s status as a NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner.”

The statement was another purposeful exercise in poking the bear in the eye. It is another contribution to a process that NATO (meaning Washington) has been perfecting since Bill Clinton’s 1998 violation of George H.W. Bush’s firm pledge not to expand NATO to the East, a decision that elicited strong warnings from high-level diplomats from George Kennan, Henry Kissinger, Jack Matlock, (current CIA Director) William Burns, and many others, and led Defense Secretary William Perry to come close to resigning in protest, joined by a long list of others with eyes open. That’s of course in addition to the aggressive actions that struck directly at Russia’s concerns (Serbia, Iraq, Libya, and lesser crimes), conducted in such a way as to maximize the humiliation.

It doesn’t strain credulity to suspect that that the joint statement was a factor in inducing Putin and the narrowing circle of “hard men” around him to decide to step up their annual mobilization of forces on the Ukrainian border in an effort to gain some attention to their security concerns, in this case on to direct criminal aggression — which, indeed, we can compare with the Nazi invasion of Poland (in combination with Stalin).

Neutralization of Ukraine is the main element of a constructive program, but there is more.
frank April 06, 2022 at 16:37 #678484
Reply to Benkei I think it would be fruitful to ask why Ukraine wanted to join NATO.

Is there some path Russia could have taken that would have made Ukraine happy to continue a friendly relationship with them?

frank April 06, 2022 at 16:39 #678486
Plus, at this point, the real issue of concern is what the sanctions are about to do to the Russian society.

They're set to run Russia into the ground.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 16:40 #678487
Quoting frank
I think it would be fruitful to ask why Ukraine wanted to join NATO.


No one disputes Ukraine, at least represented by Zelenskyy, wanted to join NATO.

The problem for Zelenskyy and Ukrainians is that NATO would not and has not let them join, what NATO could do overnight if it wanted ... but it doesn't want to.

Fighting for a right get something from people who have made it clear they won't give it to you anyways, is dumb.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 16:42 #678489
Quoting frank
Plus, at this point, the real issue of concern is what the sanctions are about to do to the Russian society.

They're set to run Russia into the ground.


Sure, if you're goal is to use Ukraine as a proxi war to bleed the Russians, then fighting to the last Ukrainian for the "right to join NATO" and the sanctions are a good way to harm the Russians.

Does it help Ukrainians?
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 16:47 #678491
Quoting boethius
No one disputes Ukraine, at least represented by Zelenskyy, wanted to join NATO.


The NATO aspiration was written in the Ukrainian constitution before Zelenskyy was elected president. It seems he had nothing to do with it.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 16:53 #678494
Quoting Olivier5
The NATO aspiration was written in the Ukrainian constitution before Zelenskyy was elected president. It seems he had nothing to do with it.


He could have put it to a referendum, after telling people that NATO already told him they would never be allowed to join NATO, so even if it's an aspiration in the constitution ... it's not happening so it's better not to be delusional about it, then also put it to a referendum.

And why was it put in the constitution? To make peace making (aka. statecraft) more difficult and so promote violence.

It's just denying political reality.

There's a faction in Ukraine that wanted this war, they call themselves Arians and they are on video literally saying they want war with Russia and that without them the 2014 protests would have been just a gay parade.

Maybe violent people simply got their violent wish.

Has it really brought "glory" to the average Ukrainians?
BC April 06, 2022 at 17:19 #678505
Quoting frank
Plus, at this point, the real issue of concern is what the sanctions are about to do to the Russian society.


I wish there was a clearer picture of what the sanctions are actually doing. Of course, gradually tightened sanctions are not going to have an over-night effect, but I hear mixed messages on their effectiveness.
frank April 06, 2022 at 17:40 #678508
Quoting Bitter Crank
wish there was a clearer picture of what the sanctions are actually doing. Of course, gradually tightened sanctions are not going to have an over-night effect, but I hear mixed messages on their effectiveness.


If the sanctions were supposed to undermine Putin's popularity, they don't seem to have done that. If anything, the Russian elite is more closely tied to Putin than before.

Russia did have a market economy in which westerners participated. Apparently that's gone. They will now have a command economy.

Here.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 17:59 #678512
Quoting boethius
it's better not to be delusional about it, then also put it to a referendum.


That 's precisely Zelenskyy's line, I think.

Quoting boethius
And why was it put in the constitution?


Good question. I did some research (from wiki):


On November 22, 2018, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine green-lighted a presidential bill to amend Ukraine's Constitution regarding the strategic course of the state for obtaining full membership of Ukraine in the EU and NATO (No. 9037). The same day, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the bill in its first reading. A total of 334 deputies of 385 registered in the session hall supported the law.

The Verkhovna Rada is composed of 450 "deputies" in total. Some posts are vacant due to Russian occupation of Crimea and independentists in Dombass. A new crop of deputies were voted in in 2019.

The law voted by the previous legislature proposed that Ukraine's irreversible course toward European and Euro-Atlantic integration be stipulated in the preamble of the Fundamental Law along with the confirmation of European identity of the Ukrainian people; that Article 102 be supplemented with the provision that "the president of Ukraine is the guarantor of the implementation of the state's strategic course for obtaining Ukraine's full membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization"; and that Article 116 is amended with a new clause, according to which the Cabinet of Ministers "ensures the implementation of the state's strategic course for obtaining Ukraine's full membership in the [EU and NATO]."

These provisions effectively carved in constitutional marble a 'west-friendly' foreign policy orientation -- a very odd feature, possibly an overreaction to Yukashenko's efforts to cosy up with Moscow -- and forced any new administration to implement it.

Zelenskyy's hands were therefore tied.

So who voted for this law? Most deputies of the previous legislatute. It was a presidential bill, emanating from Petro Poroshenko, and voted by (among others) his party, then name the 'Petro Poroshenko Bloc' that had won 132 of the 423 contested seats in the 2014 Ukrainian parliamentary election, more than any other party.

Poroshenko's domestic policy promoted "the Ukrainian language, nationalism, inclusive capitalism, decommunization, and administrative decentralization."

In 2018, Poroshenko helped create the autocephalous Orthodox Church of Ukraine, separating Ukrainian churches from the Moscow Patriarchate. His presidency was distilled into a three-word slogan, employed by both supporters and opponents: armiia, mova, vira (English: army, language, faith).

In the 2019 presidential elections, Poroshenko obtained 24.5% in the second round, being defeated by Volodymyr Zelensky. There was no true consensus in the expert community on why Poroshenko lost, with opinions ranging from opposition to intensifying nationalism, failure to stem corruption, dissatisfaction of overlooked Russian-speaking regions with his presidency [and other factors]. His loss apparently came as a big surprise to commentators.

Outside government, Poroshenko has been a prominent Ukrainian oligarch with a lucrative career in acquiring and building assets. His most recognized brands are Roshen, the large-scale confectionery company which has earned him the nickname of "Chocolate King", and, until its sale in November 2021, the TV news channel 5 kanal.

He is still a member of parliament. But a new crop of deputies was elected on 21 July 2019. Zelensky's totally new party (called Servant of the People... :-)) won a strong a majority, coming out of the blue.

So this constitutional amendment was done by a previous crop of leaders, rather nationalist and possibly quite corrupt. Those Zelenskyy ran against and defeated.

This means Zelenskyy has no legacy to defend here, and can propose new ideas eg the referendum one.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 18:32 #678518
Quoting Olivier5
That 's precisely Zelenskyy's line, I think.


That's his line now, but if he was told Ukraine could never join NATO, why wasn't it his line before the war, which would have significantly reduced tensions.

Not only should be seriously question why it wasn't his line before the war after he was told by NATO that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO ... we should also seriously question why the "right to join NATO" was his line in the first tepid days of the war.

Quoting Olivier5
Zelenskyy's hands were therefore tied.


Obviously not, no matter what is said in the constitution or what Ukraine "wants", nothing prevented Zelenskyy from telling the truth that, despite what they want, NATO has told him they will never be allowed to join NATO ... or, if that would be too shocking for Ukrainians to here, then work out some diplomatic process that saves face for Ukraine and NATO .. and why not, I'm being generous, even Russia.

Someone who knows anything about anything about statecraft would interpret NATO literally stating that Ukraine would never be allowed to join but the door would be open publicly (i.e. NATO would not publicly humiliate Ukraine by saying closing the door) would know that's a pretty large and clear "big boy signal" from NATO that he's going to have to go make peace with Putin, if he wanted peace.

Sure, you can say he shouldn't need to make peace with Putin ... but then the expectation should be no peace with Putin.

These sorts of truth bombs at this stage in the game is honestly bewildering. Almost as bewildering as the biolabs fiasco (almost).

Diplomatic tightrope is what it means to be the neighbour of a great power that can reck your country on a whim. If Finland's so praiseworthy in their Russian relations, a famous deal with the Russians to keep Finland independent post-WWII and not be absorbed like other baltic nations (a time in which no one would come to Finland's aid and the Russian army was even bigger and more powerful than before and certainly more experienced after defeating the Nazi's) was worked out over a lot of vodka and sauna.

Indeed, the sauna (which always includes alcohol) statecraft tool, was described at length by Secretary of State Torstila famous 2010 speech to the XV International Sauna Congress.

Describing important high stakes diplomatic techniques such as:

Quoting Sauna Diplomacy, the Finnish Recipe
President Kekkonen used to invite world leaders and other officials to his private sauna at the height of the Cold War. Formal discussions started around a normal negotiating table and were followed by a sauna sitting. New ideas emerged and many of them helped the Finns move towards notable political and economic successes and ultimately Finland becoming “the Nokia Land.”

During the days of the Cold War, the Finnish neutrality between East and West was constantly challenged by the Soviet Union. President Kekkonen used his sauna diplomacy to defend Finland’s integrity and membership in the Western community of nations countering the Soviet efforts. The Financial Times once claimed that Kekkonen sweated his Soviet guests into cooperation in his sauna. The true story is certainly richer in detail than that but the truth remains that the sauna was an important instrument for Kekkonen in building confidence and diffusing the mistrust of our eastern neighbor.


The Finnish story is not just "fighting the Russians".

It is fighting the Russians, then mutually agreeing war is not a good thing, and burying the hatchet, and learning to live as neighbour's with mutual respect (at least for a time) and mutual benefit wherever possible. Finland even paid war reparations to the Soviet Union. That price for independence was also paid, yet I never see mentioned.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 18:51 #678522
Notice the diplomatic nuance, the statecraft, even in this fun loving speech—cognisant that every word matters—in phrases like "The true story is certainly richer in detail than that but the truth remains that the sauna was an important instrument for Kekkonen in building confidence and diffusing the mistrust of our eastern neighbor."

Contrast that to geopolitical diplomacy of today ... which is basically reduced to an online flamewar.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 18:52 #678523
Quoting boethius
why wasn't it his line before the war, which would have significantly reduced tensions.


I explained why: the constitutional amendment binds him from doing anything else than implement it. Now this is water under the bridge.
boethius April 06, 2022 at 18:55 #678524
Quoting Olivier5
I explained why: the constitutional amendment binds him from doing anything else than implement it. Now this is water under the bridge.


Ah yes, just water under the bridge ... but not really.

Just because there is some law and some objective and some duty to implement the law, does not mean a politician must keep pretending the law can be implemented when he realises it is no longer possible.

His hands were not tied, he could have talked with other politicians, explained the situation and that NATO is not coming and they will need to deal with Russia largely alone, that it's a difficult situation and cool heads are required.

Even if his hands were "really tied" as president he could have resigned, told the truth, and thus forced a new election around this issue so Ukrainian's could decide on a new policy given that, even if they want to join NATO and have "a right to join NATO" that the reality is that they will never be joining NATO.

And the fact he's saying so now and saying a referendum would be needed to change the constitution ... clearly demonstrates his hands weren't tied and he could have called for such a referendum any time between being told by NATO that Ukraine won't be joining NATO and the start of the war.
Olivier5 April 06, 2022 at 19:10 #678526
Reply to boethius Isn't it a bit too late for your advice? What difference does it make now, what Zelenskyy did or didn't do to change the Ukrainian constitution before the war?
RogueAI April 06, 2022 at 19:16 #678530
Quoting boethius
Again, no threat to USA, Australia, Germany or France of Italy and most Western nations, of the war spilling over.


The war could turn nuclear, which is a very serious threat to the Western nations (and the world). Everyone on the planet has a stake in what's going on in Ukraine.
RogueAI April 06, 2022 at 19:23 #678531
Reply to Benkei Do you think there's a moral equivalence between NATO and the Warsaw Pact?
boethius April 06, 2022 at 19:28 #678532
Quoting RogueAI
The war could turn nuclear, which is a very serious threat to the Western nations (and the world). Everyone on the planet has a stake in what's going on in Ukraine.


By spillover I mean the current war literally spilling over borders.

I then address the nuclear threat in the next sentence:

Quoting boethius
More importantly, there's only increased the threat of war for countries neighbouring Russia and threat of nuclear war due to Western emotional reaction to Ukrainian "worthy victims" and that all actions by Ukrainians are just, none of their lies need be talked about and are "just and noble lies" anyways, and any and all actions against Russia are justified ... even if they are counter productive and even if they harm Ukrainians more rather than help them.


Nuclear war in this context is meant to address the increased risk to everyone, but I should have specified that the spillover risk to neighbours is both conventional and nuclear.
RogueAI April 06, 2022 at 19:31 #678533
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 20:45 #678547
Reply to RogueAI In the sense they were both expressions of empire and the countries propping them up responsible for millions of death across the world. Sure. Pick your favourite mass murderer.
frank April 06, 2022 at 20:49 #678550
Quoting Benkei
the sense they were both expressions of empire and the countries propping them up responsible for millions of death across the world. Sure. Pick your favourite mass murderer.


The Hittites were pretty cool. Egypt was in a class by itself. Obviously.

Aztecs, though. Talk about mayhem. :grimace:
Christoffer April 06, 2022 at 21:02 #678554
Quoting Isaac
OK, then remind me of the premise. If "Critical thinking is something which needs teaching" is the conclusion of a logical argument - not just an assertion - then there should be a premise (or premises) leading logically to it. Remind me what those premises are, because I must have missed them.


Ok, let's make it super clear. The conclusion is originally more: "Teaching critical thinking is needed to help people see past authoritarian propaganda." So, dividing them into two inductive arguments:

[p1] Critical thinking is a method of thought [p2] needed to be trained and nurtured to become [C] a mental tool against cognitive biases.

[p1] Societies with long traditions of propaganda and state lies develop strong belief biases over many generations. [p2] An individual who never gets exposed to anything other than propaganda and state lies as their source of information about the world and their government, has a high probability of accepting that information as truth if they don't see anything contradicting that propaganda, and if they have no knowledge of the possibility of such propaganda being wrong. [p3] While some individuals can develop high cognitive abilities of logic, the awareness of existing biases and fallacies requires external information to be taught in order for those concepts to be known to that individual. [p4] The method and process of evaluating and examining a claimed truths, facts, or conclusions in search of its actual truth-value while being aware of one's own biases and cognitive limitations so as to not contaminate the process, is called "critical thinking". [p5] To perform valid critical thinking as a method, one must know facts about biases, fallacies, and cognitive limitations. [C] Therefore, teaching critical thinking is required to help a large portion of people in authoritarian states to see past authoritarian propaganda and understand media literacy.

Now [p1] and [p2] True or false? Look at history, even the Soviet era, look at North Korea, Nazi Germany look at major authoritarian regimes and times when the church and king had all the power. How grinding down actual truth over generations, decades, and centuries places the common man in a position where it's next to impossible to see any other reality than the one that has been taught by parents, state, church, and other citizens. The only time such status quos break down and collapse is when the suffering and acts by those in power conflict with the truths that have been taught. For example, a church promotes peace in a nation but slaughters citizens in front of their eyes. Many effective authoritarian regimes conducted such slaughters outside of the citizens' view, so as to not conflict with the established propaganda. The more effective the propaganda machine, the more likely people will form biases to a point where they could even be exposed to contradicting evidence and still accept the propaganda narrative as true. For example, people call relatives in Russia to say are suffering through war and their relatives don't believe them, regardless of the evidence sent to them.
For [p3] True or false? People can develop high intelligence and high levels of logical thinking, but higher intelligence does not equal being immune to bias. The only way to be aware of one's own biases is to learn about them and how to spot them. Learn how to form arguments that don't come out of those biases and form fallacies in reasoning. That kind of knowledge can form naturally, but on a scale that encompasses an entire people, that probability is close to impossible. The knowledge about biases and fallacies and the understanding of these cognitive processes have been formed through philosophy and science over a very long time and many many researchers and thinkers to a combined body of knowledge. That one person would naturally develop the same extensive knowledge without any education is close to impossible, and a whole people doing it has such a low probability that it can't even be a valid factor against this premise. [p4] True or false? While we can debate on how to actually define "critical thinking", this is a short summary and general description found everywhere. The ability to critically evaluate something and be aware of the biases that contaminate that evaluation process. [p5] True or false? Since biases and fallacies are epistemic facts needed to understand one's own thought process in a more objective manner, they need to be taught through education of those facts in order to enable proper critical thinking to take place. So in the conclusion, all those premises support that teaching about critical thinking is required to help people understand how the propaganda forms their biases and how critically examining state information can only be done while being aware of how the biases formed through the history of that authoritarian state.


Now, I would like to hear you do an argument for how education is not required whatsoever. And how parents teaching children works better, especially in the context of [p1] and [p2] in my argument. But I think I know what will happen, you will not do that and you will continue to demand more of my argument than you are willing to give about your own.


Quoting Isaac
So because I'm a professor, I should understand the things you think are the case? Why?


You don't present any argument for "what the case is", you conclude that it is better for parents to just teach their children instead of formal education, and I object to that because parents teaching children a broad education requires the parents to be unbiased, but in authoritarian states, the state propaganda narrative is so ingrained through generations that those parents won't be unbiased but have a strong belief bias. And you ignore dealing with this objection and defend your position only with an appeal to authority: "I'm a professor and you are wrong".

Quoting Isaac
I haven't once claimed I'm right because I'm a professor. I haven't claimed I'm right at all, in fact. I've said that the evidence to support your position is lacking.


You have claimed a lot of things without any ounce of evidence other than implying that I'm wrong because you are a professor. And you haven't presented strong evidence against my argument either, other than that you are a professor.

Quoting Isaac
If you say "you know it's illegal to burn the Union Jack", and someones say "I'm a professor of Law and actually it isn't", it's not a normal reaction to say "you must be one of those bad professors who are sacked because they don't know what they're talking about!"


You haven't shown any sign to know what you are talking about. Your acts do not compute with your claimed title. I did not say that you are a bad professor until after continuously just reading your claim of title as the only source behind your claims. In the case of "professor of Law", the follow up is to show that it isn't legal, not to say that "I'm a professor of Law and that might mean you need to consider yourself to be wrong". That is essentially the same as implying I'm wrong just because you are a professor. You demand valid arguments, but you do nothing of the sort yourself.

Quoting Isaac
The normal reaction is to say "Oh really, I was sure it was illegal, weird...".


Essentially just accepting what you say... because you claimed yourself to be a professor. The normal reaction would be to say: "Ok, show me". Why should I just accept what you claim? Why should your conclusions don't be examined also? Are you unable to see the problem with this?

Quoting Isaac
Do you not see how odd it is to claim that something a professor says is wrong because it doesn't tally with what you think you know.


I ask for evidence, facts, rational arguments, and elaborations on your claims and conclusions. If you don't provide it, or you provide something inconclusive or illogical, then I object and when you continuously don't elaborate further I cannot do anything other than conclude your claims to be wrong or inconclusive.

Quoting Isaac
You've got no strong reason to believe me. But you didn't, and that's the fascinating bit. You went for believing me, but simultaneously still believing that you know more than I do about the subject.


I assume that you tell the truth because if you lied about being a professor, you render everything you say irrelevant as you have absolutely zero credibility and fall back on such tactics. Assuming you telling the truth allows me to grant you the opening to try and rationally argue for your claims and conclusions with more foundational respect as an interlocutor. So far, you haven't really done that, so I could question the validity of your claim, but my assumption does not change the fact that you still need to prove yourself past just pointing out you are a professor. I think a problem here is that if you are a professor you might be biased toward the dynamic of student/professor, where the respect from students towards a professor is generally more in respect of that title and the knowledge that comes with it. But I'm not your student and therefore I have no requirement of taking your words for granted without asking for more clarification and elaboration. To imply that if I accept the idea that you are a professor, I should therefore not be able to believe I could know more than you, is basically you saying that without knowing my level of knowledge, without knowing if I have a title or not, without any knowledge whatsoever regarding it, claim that you know more than me, just because of your claimed title. You aren't correct because you are a professor, you are correct if you demonstrate your claim and conclusion to be correct. Until then, you cannot say that I shouldn't believe I know more than you, because your title does not warrant a dismissal of the possibility that I know more than you, it is just a claim with so far zero proof in practice.

Quoting Isaac
Yes. I've studied how people learn and how they solve problems, particularly very young children and from what I've studied I've no reason to believe that critical thinking skills need teaching.


That you say you have studied them is the same as saying "I'm a professor therefore I'm right." The claim that you have studied is not a valid premise. Give me the study, the paper in that case.
Or form an argument with premises that aren't "I have the knowledge, therefore" or "I'm a professor, therefore".

Quoting Isaac
I've every reason to believe that critical thinking is a normal part of human mental processing which is costly and so usually suppressed in situations of scarcity.


I see no facts, publications, or logical premises here other than "I believe", try again.

Quoting Isaac
Now you could just claim I'm lying, and I've done no such study. That would at least make sense. I could present you with all the case studies and papers (although clearly not on this thread - it would be way off topic). What doesn't make any sense is you believing the first claim, but then assuming I must be one of those 'bad' professors because I'm not saying what you think is the case.


I'm not claiming you are lying, I'm saying that you just point to an unknown study that made you believe you are right. That is not enough. You could also try and logically argue for your claim and conclusion, so far I've not seen such a valid argument.

Quoting Isaac
Are you telling me that nothing of this can be taught to people?
— Christoffer

Yes. Pretty much. Compared to simply removing the conditions of scarcity and allowing people to think for themselves, teaching these skill pedagogically has virtually no measurable effect.


https://core.ac.uk/reader/110405
https://core.ac.uk/reader/158370562
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1505329112
https://www.scienceopen.com/document/read?vid=289aa9bd-a8b1-4431-88e2-83f326e01fe7
https://www.scienceopen.com/document/read?vid=098c015f-c58f-4dda-b1c9-c69fffd7d2dd

As you can see by this very loose search for papers on teaching critical thinking it points toward broad consensus specifically around the importance of teaching critical thinking. Interestingly enough, the paper on critical thinking in Rwanda touches upon the very thing I'm talking about, where misinformation about health causes health problems and that the importance of teaching critical thinking helps mitigate serious consequences of such misinformation.

There is a need for learning resources to develop critical thinking skills generally and critical thinking about health specifically. Such skills could be taught within the existing curriculum using available ICT technologies. Digital resources for teaching critical thinking about health should be designed so that they can be used flexibly across subjects and easily by teachers and students.


Set in the context of Russian propaganda, the disinformation acts in similar ways, setting things up for dangerous consequences for the people that blindly follow that disinformation. Therefore critical thinking needs to be taught to help new generations understand what is propaganda and what is not.

So when you say that your studies conclude that if material challenges are met, people will think for themselves and that teaching these kinds of skills have no real measurable effect, that just sounds like your study is massively flawed and even downright false in its conclusion.

You could, however, provide the study, and references and make efforts through argument to support the claims you make, so that it doesn't just sound like they're your personal opinions wrapped up in an appeal to authority fallacy. But you won't, because you conveniently pressed on the idea that you are a professor and now you cannot show the "evidence" in support of your conclusions because that would be bad for you to do so on a public forum.

However, I think it's bad for you to be on a public forum anyway based on how you actually write here. If you are a professor, it would be wise to act in that effort, with the same scrutiny and standard, even under a pseudonym.

I really like to see publications that position that formal education isn't needed, that's a very radical conclusion and would surely make splashes in the scientific community. And because it's such a radical conclusion, it really needs some strong support. Your claims of having conducted a study is not enough, that study needs to be elaborated on. Sample sizes, cultural differences, class differences, cognitive differences, and socioeconomic differences. Also comparing to formal education in nations with private schools and those with government-funded schools as well as the statistics about levels of knowledge between different societies with different educational systems.

The problem here is that you just say "you made a study", that is not enough to claim you know better.

Quoting Isaac
In basic form, teaching epistemology will show students that there's more to a claim, truth, fact or argument, even done by yourself, than just accepting it as plain truth.
— Christoffer

People already know that. I've studied six month old babies who are aware of that.


Here you go with the studies claim again. *sigh*

Quoting Isaac
If there's no need for education, why don't you just quit your job then?
— Christoffer

I did, but I was primarily a researcher. Teaching was an annoyance.


It was an annoyance and you have concluded that formal education isn't needed. May I suggest I see a pattern in need of research here? How your annoyance formed an opinion that informed you to create a hypothesis that you are trying to prove.

Also interesting that you say "was" for both. I guess you're not a professor anymore then. And if "was" why would you get in trouble if you showed the studies you published? You can't get fired from somewhere you annoyed yourself to quit from, right?

Quoting Isaac
The method is not relevant. The material causes of those societies being that way are.


You tend to always just see one cause of all problems, the west, the US, imperialism, material scarcity.

Quoting Isaac
Then why haven't those nations already done it? What are they natively lacking which has prevented this? — Isaac


One part can be that they don't have any teachers for this type of educational form. So those teachers need to be educated first.
— Christoffer

Why? Why don't they already have the critical thinking skills from their own rich cultural heritage?


I asked you to show me an example of such critical thinking that evolved separately from all other major studies in epistemology. But you never show me that. You ask why they don't already have those skills. Maybe it is because as I've already explained about the history of critical thinking, that it might require studies over centuries by many people and that it might be western power and luck that enabled it to go from the Greeks, through the Islamic golden age, through the renaissance, enlightenment era and modernized and synthesized with other philosophies around the world, that led to what it is today, both in cognitive sciences, philosophy and education. Maybe their cultural heritage does not allow for it or have it because of either interference that destroyed its progress, like how the Mayan empire collapsed and the knowledge of astronomy far ahead of its time got lost and had to be re-discovered again in the west.

Asking "Why?" does not change the fact that you have not shown examples of the same level of developed critical thinking in any other culture. Can you please... show.... it...

Quoting Isaac
Just throw the books at them and they'll learn? Yeah, right
— Christoffer

Yeah. Right.


Delusional point of view.

Quoting Isaac
Again, you're so sure of your beliefs that you think you can just dismiss any challenges to them with "yeah, right". It is true. I've studied children who have learned everything from reading, writing and maths through to advanced computer skills, science and even basic medicine without any pedagogic teaching whatsoever. Books and time. Nothing more. Throw in access to experts when they're asked for and you have a complete education system.


Oh, so it's all just about the teacher/student relationship here? So first off, you need them to learn to read and write, basic education, that needs a teacher otherwise they can't do much with those books now can they? Then you just leave them with those books, but still have experts? So how does this in any shape or form change the fact that teaching critical thinking, either through those books or through a teacher can have the effect that I describe? Like the Rwanda paper.

And what about the differences in learning skills between students? Not all function the same, not all can go through autodidactic methods of learning and reach the same place as others. A study with a small sample size of an even smaller number of different backgrounds of students in this topic cannot conclude such an autodidactic learning method to be conclusively better than traditional education.

Again, you have studied, but I see no research paper or actual details of such a study. Is it even published? Is it reviewed?

Quoting Isaac
Letting parents teach their own children the same thing they were taught within such nations does not generate anything other than the same servents of those regimes that those parents were taught to be.
— Christoffer

Why not? Are all the parents authoritarian too? People are not as stupid as you paint them.


What the hell are you talking about? I'm talking about people living through generation after generation of limited knowledge controlled by an authoritarian regime. If you think they are stupid you clearly don't know shit about how indoctrination and belief bias works, regardless of your "professor status".

A clear example of this is the parents of people living in Ukraine who, when called up by their crying children, don't believe them that there's a war there. I could appeal to my emotions and say that these parents are fucking idiots, but the truth is that they've lived their whole lives within the state-controlled lies and world-view, so as to function as servants of that regime whether they are aware of it or not.

It's precisely this process of generational propaganda feedback loop that I'm arguing for being broken by getting knowledge of critical thinking into areas of the world that only get their information from authoritarian sources of propaganda.

Quoting Isaac


Yes, there are. Nothing about home-education requires children to stay locked in their rooms.


Being able to go out of their room does not equal being forced to face different perspectives and ideas, to be forced into the world and train such social skills. Sure, you can put them in social spaces, but learning together with others, and collaborating on projects is a massive needed skill to learn as you grow up. Especially if you are further away from extroversion. Such things do not happen on their own, or rather, they can never achieve a sufficient level for all, so only a few will benefit and others will suffer from lacking social skills later on.

Quoting Isaac
As an example, is examining a topic with deduction reasoning part of normal human thought? Have you ever met someone who figured out such methods on their own?
— Christoffer

Yes and yes.


Really, what about biases? Did they show a clear understanding of biases while forming such a deduction argument? Can I read more somewhere about this other than you just saying you did?

Quoting Isaac
And what about those who don't have a high proficiency in logical reasoning? Who tend to always gravitate towards bias or agreeableness of others' opinions without questioning anything. Do you think they will "invent" methods to help them bypass those weaknesses out of thin air?
— Christoffer

Yes, if given the space to do so. You assume there are such people, for a start. People who think with strong biases tend to do so because of the mental cost of thinking more critically. Those whose thinking styles make this harder have a higher cost. No amount of education can fix that.


Education mitigates it, ignoring it or just hoping "it fixes itself" like your idea of the autodidactic educational system does nothing and can even increase the problems. This is why methods are important, especially for those that find just "figuring it out" hard and mentally taxing. Having clearer methods help those with guidance rather than just acknowledging they have a bias and then doing nothing. And I'm not assuming anything, just look at the antivaccer movement filled with strongly agreeable people and a flourishing group-think mentality. With enough effort you could easily pull them under authoritarian ideas. Ironically enough most of them have moved from vaccination conspiracies to pro-Putin conspiracies and ideas.

Quoting Isaac
To say that people of the population of the world today can just let "learning" happen on its own is a pure utopian delusion.
— Christoffer

According to whom?


According to you not able to produce support for such a conclusion, only "I'm a professor who did a study that showed me it is so", without showing said study, or any details, facts, or arguments in support.

Quoting Isaac
Didn't you argue for letting nations just be themselves and solve things themselves?
— Christoffer

No. Not once.


So how do they rid themselves of authoritarian governments if large parts of a population fully believe propaganda and lies because that's the only exposure they have to outside information? Does education of children that teaches them other perspectives than the authoritarian lies help break that generational cycle of echo chambers?

How do you propose it get fixed? Also I seem to remember you proposing that we need to let nations like Russia "figure it out by themselves", right?

Quoting Isaac
Here you mention a lot of interventions by the west
— Christoffer

No, I mention lack of interventions by the west. I'm talking about removing debt, removing pecuniary trade barriers, removing support for corrupt regimes... these are not interventions. These are the lack of intervention.


Those are not enough. The World Bank is already working on cutting dept, and removing corrupt regimes, how do you propose that happens without military intervention? Ask them nicely? Most attempts at changing regimes have happened through sanctions, at great cost to the people, so what's the alternative? Military intervention, killing off the corruption, and attempting to push for non-corrupt elections. But what happens if the people's literacy levels are low? If education is so low that normal electoral processes don't work and the nation falls back into separatist warfare? Much of this has already happened unfortunately forcing change in that way is extremely hard. What's lacking in nations that continuously have problems, outside of the debt problem, is almost always a lack of education for the people. Getting to self-sustainability requires more people to be educated and if literacy levels are low because it's hard getting them to such education, then it logically won't work better by just hoping they learn on their own, just by having books.

Quoting Isaac
You'd rather develop some convoluted story about how I've managed to become a professor of Psychology yet still hold the (obviously wrong) beliefs rather than simply come to terms with the possibility you might be wrong. — Isaac


Because you are a professor?
— Christoffer

Yes, exactly that. As I said above, it's quite the normal response when someone whom you even strongly suspect of being a professor in a relevant field tells you you might be wrong to assume that you might, in fact, be wrong. It is not normal to assume they must be one of the 'bad' professors because you couldn't possibly be wrong.


It's also common for highly educated people to discover problems with professors using their title as a source of authority in discussions. The whole reason why critical thinking is an important topic for me is that it's part of my own philosophical work. And my ethical work on epistemic responsibility, that a key point is to not just accept something until tested or examined. You have claimed to be a professor, a professor with radical conclusions about education, who says that you have studies that prove your conclusions and that because of this I should bow down to it, accept that I can be wrong and that you can be right, even if you haven't demonstrated any support for any of it.

This is an abuse of your title, a way to use that title as part of an argument in order to shift the balance of power in a debate. Unfortunately, for you, I don't fall for such behaviors. That's why I keep asking for support for your claims. Until that is presented your title means nothing and your studies are irrelevant. You need to make it relevant before it can be used to support your claims and conclusions. Otherwise, it just becomes you claiming your right becauseyou say so.

Quoting Isaac


Yes. I use the same tools as everybody else. It seems they're extremely difficult, if not impossible, to avoid.


Dig deeper then.

Quoting Isaac
You are still using your authority as a reason for me to be wrong.
— Christoffer

Yes. That's right. Again, it's quite normal practice (assuming you believe me) to consider the possibility that you're wrong if your conclusions are contradicted by an expert in the field. Note this is true even if you too are an expert in the field. It is not normal practice to assume there must be something wrong with them because they don't agree with you.


You first agree that you do an appeal to authority fallacy, then still position it to be justified. As I said you might need to dig deeper.

Your contradictions are opinions with claims going against most research on the topic, meaning you have a radical claim without the support and you position that as being the contradiction against me by an expert. I assume there's something wrong with you, not because I don't agree with you, but because you haven't presented any support for anything you've said. What is it that you don't understand here? You're babbling on and on about this but you can't see the glaring problem with this? And because you used past tense when speaking about your role as a teacher and researcher,

I'm beginning to believe that you're just an unemployed professor, delusional after unfinished studies with growing radical ideas that you desperately want to be true and you try to gain your old status back in here by just saying "I've done studies, trust me I'm a professor and I have seen so much that proves me right."

You still have to show support for your claims. I don't give a fuck about your title, it is irrelevant if you can't back up your ideas with the studies you draw all your truths from.

Quoting Isaac


You asked me, remember?


Doesn't mean you are free from having to support your claims and conclusions.

Quoting Isaac


Yes. Again, this is completely normal practice.


No, it's called an appeal to authority.

Quoting Isaac
It has nothing to do with 'authority' it has to do with respect for time spent studying. It's the same respect I extend to other experts with whom I strongly disagree.


You simply don't understand that you claiming this means nothing. It's still an appeal to authority, something you as a professor should know what it means.

It would be easy to continue the discussion if you actually made efforts to support your claims. I can't respect someone who positions themselves as being "more right" than me because of their title or claim of expertise if that's the only source of support for their claims, especially when the claims are radical and in need of heavy support as they counter general consensus of the topic.

Quoting Isaac
you claim intellectual superiority because you are a professor
— Christoffer

I've claimed nothing of the sort. We're 173 pages in, I've not even mentioned my qualifications to this point and you asked me what they were.


You claim yourself to be a professor and therefore I should consider myself wrong. Because you have no other support for your claims, this becomes the only support you present, and it is about using appeal to authority to gain superiority over your interlocutor.

Benkei April 06, 2022 at 21:06 #678556
Reply to frank I just finished an interesting documentary where they argue that where science, profit and belief in superiority coincide, you have a particular volatile combination. So the US is build on the genocide of native americans (500 treaties signed and broken), millions displaced, forcibly converted, murdered and raped.

Most European wealth is build on the genocide and slavery of Africans. Belgium murdered 3,000,000 Congolese. The French, Dutch, English, Spanish and Portuguese had their slave trade. And almost all of them had colonies.

The Aztecs were original in a particular brand of religious sacrifice but a bunch of pussies compared to settler colonialism and all the crap that came with that. Europe then turned around and actually decided to kill their own (Jews) because, well only Aryans and Gentiles were superior (I gloss over the "Irish are descendants from monkeys but the English are Man" as a minor sidestory).

Considering the direction in which sheer quantities have developed over the centuries the next genocide where all three points mentioned in the first sentence coincide is going to be record-breaking. I'm just praying karma isn't a thing or we're both fucked.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 21:20 #678560
Reply to frank This is a good question but one I can't really answer but only guess at.

Ukraine was torn between loyalty to the West and Russia to the East. It's politics have not been free of meddling for decades. So whether their wish to join was genuine or bought for, I don't know. I think Coca-Cola sells better than Vodka so maybe culturally there was a genuine preference to align with the West - or maybe that's just projection. But then that raises the question, why NATO? Why not just a partnership and cooperation agreement and association treaty at a later stage with the EU> So personally I think it was not Ukraine's idea to begin with but NATO/US and for various reasons Ukrainian politicians went along with it and NATO/US preferred the NATO route because the Ukrainian economy wasn't interesting but its military importance was (control of the Black Sea, bordering Russia, striking distance from Moscow).

What is of course curious is that all the warnings issued in the US and EU by political think tanks about expansion of NATO to the East imply that this was also known in Ukraine proper. I wonder about the motivations of politicians to vote in favour of a policy that would antagonise Russia and increase the likelihood of further military intervention and hardship for Ukrainians. Especially in light of this being implemented in their constitution after Georgia and Crimea was already annexed. It was clear Russia wasn't afraid to use military force to enforce its sphere of influence.

So, stupidity? Pride? Getting even? Bribed? All possible I suppose.

Haven't found anything on the net to give me a more informed view on this.
frank April 06, 2022 at 21:23 #678561
Quoting Benkei
The Aztecs were original in a particular brand of religious sacrifice but a bunch of pussies compared to settler colonialism and all the crap that came with that


They were still mass murderers. Sure, they don't have the scale of the two countries that top the list of mass murderers: USSR and China, but give them a break. They were in the middle of nowhere.

Quoting Benkei
I'm just praying karma isn't a thing or we're both fucked.


Whatchoo mean "we" kemosabe?
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 21:45 #678565
Quoting Christoffer
Now, I would like to hear you do an argument for how education is not required whatsoever


OK.

p1] Critical thinking is not a method of thought [p2] which isn't needed to be trained and nurtured to become [C] a mental tool against cognitive biases.

[p1] Societies with long traditions of propaganda and state lies don't develop strong belief biases over many generations. [p2] An individual who never gets exposed to anything other than propaganda and state lies as their source of information about the world and their government, doesn't have a high probability of accepting that information as truth if they don't see anything contradicting that propaganda, and if they have no knowledge of the possibility of such propaganda being wrong. [p3] While some individuals can develop high cognitive abilities of logic, the awareness of existing biases and fallacies doesn't require external information to be taught in order for those concepts to be known to that individual. [p4] The method and process of evaluating and examining a claimed truths, facts, or conclusions in search of its actual truth-value while being aware of one's own biases and cognitive limitations so as to not contaminate the process, is called "critical thinking". [p5] To perform valid critical thinking as a method, one need not know facts about biases, fallacies, and cognitive limitations. [C] Therefore, teaching critical thinking isn't required to help a large portion of people in authoritarian states to see past authoritarian propaganda and understand media literacy.
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 21:49 #678568
Reply to frank Estimates for native americans killed through deliberate governmental action range from 95 million to 114 million in Canada and the US. Whether that was the US government or proxy governments for colonial powers is a bit academic. It does beat Mao although admittedly over a 500 year time period.

Quoting frank
Whatchoo mean "we" kemosabe?


I hope karmic retaliation doesn't do guilt by association but considering the agents it picks so far I'm not optimistic.Sorry.
Christoffer April 06, 2022 at 21:50 #678569
Reply to Isaac

Then we're done here, you have proven your inability to function through argument because that is not a counterargument. I've presented sources and elaborations of the premises and you just flip them instead while obviously haven't read more than the first part. So you are a waste of time, good luck with your "studies" professor expert :lol:
Benkei April 06, 2022 at 21:53 #678570
@frank Book I got the numbers from: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/48835.American_Holocaust
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 22:10 #678574
Quoting Christoffer
sources and elaborations


So what do suppose happens now? In your mind, how did this play out? I say "you got me, I just made all that up, I don't have any sources at all". Is that where you saw this going? I just want to know what you think is going on here.

So far I've got a disgruntled professor, venting at being ignored by the world, waits patiently for 170 pages just hoping, in a topic on Ukraine (for some reason), someone will bring up his pet theory, so he can...what? I get lost there in your plotline. The disgruntled professor gets what? Did he forget Google scholar existed? Was he hoping you didn't know about it? What happens next?

You put a tremendous amount of effort into presenting an opposing case in something you've clearly no expertise in (else you wouldn't have needed the Google search), to someone you still (remarkably) believe is an expert in that field. How did you think that was going to go?
frank April 06, 2022 at 22:13 #678577
Quoting Benkei
Estimates for native americans killed through deliberate governmental action range from 95 million to 114 million in Canada and the US. Whether that was the US government or proxy governments for colonial powers is a bit academic. It does beat Mao although admittedly over a 500 year time period.


It's not academic that the USA and Canada didn't exist 500 years ago, when measles was the biggest killer of Native Americans.
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 22:28 #678580
Reply to frank Reply to Benkei

British American Tobacco?

Knowingly killed more people than any other single entity in the time between them knowing cigarettes caused lung cancer and them telling anyone. Apparently.
frank April 06, 2022 at 22:30 #678582
Quoting Isaac
Knowingly killed more people than any other single entity in the time between them knowing cigarettes caused lung cancer and them telling anyone. Apparently


I think COPD is a bigger killer than lung cancer isn't it?
Isaac April 06, 2022 at 22:35 #678584
Quoting frank
I think COPD is a bigger killer than lung cancer isn't it?


I think you're right. That significantly ups the death count. Although I think the point was that they knew about the link to cancer but ignored it. Hence the inclusion in genocide.

Although any government who knows about the link between pm10s and lower life expectancy, but fails to act accordingly...?

Depends how deliberate the act needs to be I suppose. I take BATs ignoring the link between cancer and tobacco to be pretty deliberate, especially as they also knew cigarettes were addictive.

Now, fast food companies....
FlorenceKaia April 06, 2022 at 22:38 #678586
Reply to Benkei as a person acts in Europe and Asia for years, I must agree with you.
Apollodorus April 06, 2022 at 22:46 #678590
Quoting Olivier5
"Antiquity historians" had to do with folks who keep talking of the Roman empire again and again.


They aren't historians though. They're politicians and technocrats that use history to justify their political programs. I for one doubt that genuine historians would advocate the reconstruction of the Roman Empire. Though, of course, one can never know ....

Quoting Olivier5
Good thing it's not


Bad thing it is. America is the EU's second-largest trading partner and global investment banking in the EU is dominated by US banks, as are the international financial institutions like IMF that are involved in financial assistance and economic adjustment programs in the EU, etc., not to mention the EU's dependence on the financial markets like the City of London that are dominated by US banks.

You must be aware that the EU is trying to break free from London-based clearing houses?

The European Union must cut its heavy reliance on derivatives clearing in London in the same way as the bloc is ending its dependency on Russian energy due to the war in Ukraine, EU financial services chief Mairead McGuinness said on Wednesday.
The EU has agreed to allow clearing houses in Britain, such as the London Stock Exchange's LCH arm, to continue serving banks and asset managers in the bloc until June 2025 to give time to build up clearing capacity inside the EU.


Cutting EU reliance on UK clearers like ending use of Russian energy, says commissioner - Reuters

London, which is no longer in the EU, continues to be Europe's main financial center. The EU has been trying hard to move it to Frankfurt, but there is little chance that's going to happen anytime soon.

The irony is that to break free from London, the EU will have to allow US banks to operate more freely within the EU, there being no other alternative:

LONDON, April 4 2022 (Reuters) - The European Union said on Monday it has widened access for U.S. exchanges and clearing houses to investors in the bloc, a move which contrasts with Brussels' intention to shut off clearing houses in London in 2025.


EU widens market access for U.S. derivatives clearers and exchanges - Reuters

Maybe Paris or Marseilles should stand in for London and New York .... :wink:
RogueAI April 06, 2022 at 23:00 #678598
Quoting Benkei
In the sense they were both expressions of empire and the countries propping them up responsible for millions of death across the world. Sure. Pick your favourite mass murderer.


There's no difference between Stalin and FDR? You don't really believe that, do you?
neomac April 06, 2022 at 23:32 #678610
Reply to Isaac

> If you find it morally defensible and I don't, I don't see how much further we can go as there are few arguments that can profitably be brought to bear.

There is an anthropological fact that grounds my moral reasoning: social identities are part of our personal identities and they are rooted in our communal life with other individuals in a given environment. Social identities evolve with the size of the population and are passed on through generations and they matter to individuals as much as material conditions. Some traits of our social identity matters more than others (for whatever personal reason) and this brings with it selective criteria (who is part and who is not part of the community) and related understanding of interests, duties and rights. Nationality is one way we understand our social identity. And to some that matters, even more than class division. Russia is a good example of such nationalism with Putin as its revanchist herald.

> The working class in both societies have more common interest against the ruling classes of both societies than the entire population of one has against the entire population of another.

Common in what sense? What are the evidences to support your claim? And how do you explain the fact that Russian soldiers (example of working class) are killing Ukrainian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians instead of killing Putin and his entourage of oligarchs, generals, orthodox patriarchs and mafia friends (example of ruling class)? And why ordinary Russian majorities support Putin’s criminal and murderous war against the Ukrainians (who Putin claims are one people with Russians, so it’s as if he’s killing his own people)? Why do you support Russian expansionism given that the combination of nationalism and authoritarian regime present in Russia consolidates and perpetuates the subordination of the masses to the ruling classes in ways that are even hard to conceive in the West?
Keep also in mind that I didn’t question the value one can put into class struggles, nor claimed that is always immoral. While you made some radical moral claims about fighting over national identity and independence: indeed one thing is to claim that class struggles are or can be morally more defensible than fighting over a flag, another is to claim - as you do - that fighting over a flag is no doubt always immoral. Such a radical moral claim of yours sounds preposterous to me on anthropological grounds.

> It's not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed. Western governments decide in what way to assist. Ukrainian children die. They didn't get a say in the matter. If you think that's moral, that's your lookout, but I don't see how. I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet.

I find your claims quite preposterous for the following reasons.
1. Where you write “Ukrainian children die”, I would have written “Ukrainian children are killed by Russian soldiers”. Why such a difference? “Ukrainian children die” may be seen as an effect of your multi-causal grand theory, I get it, yet you didn’t offer any multi-causal theory to prove your point and secondly if all is literally causal then we leave in a deterministic world, and there would be no responsibility not even for the ruling classes. So to talk about responsibility you need agency. And with your analysis you should still prove Zelensky’s responsibility from “Ukrainian children are killed by Russian soldiers” and not from “Ukrainian children die”, if you want to make sense to me.
2. Children don’t get a saying in anything because they are children. When working classes and slaves were exploited or made insurrections didn’t consult their children, yet their children could get exploited or killed in a bloody repression. Did Putin consult Russian children’s before starting a war, since they are going to suffer anyways the consequences? Did Putin consult his soldiers (who are children to Russian parents) before sending them to war? Did the Russian soldiers or Putin consult the Ukrainian children before killing them? No they didn’t. So nobody can do much with such a poor premise of yours. I’ll suggest you to present your moral claim as follows: “Putin is ready to let his army kill, rape and burn Ukrainian children and their parents as he already did for the Russian flag, so Ukrainians should submit to Putin and get rid of Zelensky, if they want to prove me that they care about their children, families and homes more than I do, otherwise they are more immoral than Putin”. It’s simpler and straightforward, and it spares you the embarrassment of defending preposterous moral claims and clandestine multi-causal analysis.
3. So you wanted to suggest a third strategy opposing Russian and American expansionism and now you want Zelensky gone, which is more than what Putin officially demanded?! Even Putin might cringe over your overzealousness.
4. If Ukrainians who lost their families in this war oppose the continuation of this war and want Zelensky gone because they take him to be responsible for what has happened, I can’t exclude that could be a morally defensible choice, of course! Yet, from my perspective, the flaw in your reasoning lies in the fact that your moral claims do not take into account what Ukrainians value, as I do. For example, if I were Ukrainian and had my family exterminated by Russians, I wouldn’t care about Zelensky, no matter how much responsibilities you would ascribe to him based on your clandestine multi-causal theory, I would simply go fight the Russians to death. Besides if I heard anybody trying to convince me out of it with your kind of reasoning, I would have beaten the shit out of him. But maybe someone would have acted differently, I don’t know. The point is that my moral claims concerning this war take into account what the Ukrainians value as this war concerns them in the first place (but ultimately not only them). And since I do not have direct access to what they want collectively, then I would take Zelensky as their chosen representative in times of peace and in times of war, until I’m proven wrong. BTW Zelensky support among Ukrainians is confirmed to me by some good feedback from expat Ukrainian friends and foreign reporters on the ground.


[i]> all get’s compromised when parties start from such a position of mistrust as in this case. — neomac
I don't see how. How are you measuring 'mistrust' and why say it's too high here?[/i]

I didn’t measure “mistrust”. There are unavoidable evidences and compelling reasons for mistrust. Negotiations stalled: so either the demands were too hard to digest or there weren’t enough assurances or both. That Russian demands are already over the top is clear as I explained, and that Putin has lost his credibility to Ukraine is obvious having violated the Budapest agreement. And notice that Ukrainians do not blindly trust the West either, because they too didn’t stand by the Budapest agreement. While Putin, from his point of view, could justify this war precisely because he didn’t have enough assurances from the West either (https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/we-dont-want-conflict-but-we-need-assurance-putin-tells-nato-41179711.html). And if before there was mistrust now it’s so much worse. For example, if Ukraine agrees to be out of NATO what ensures that Ukraine will not be attacked again by Russia? Putin’s word? Lavrov’s ? Yours? Out of NATO, Ukrainians need either the binding guarantees from Western countries to intervene militarily (and notice that according to the Budapest memorandum the UK and the US should have intervened!) or their own full-fledged military defense which should be enough deterring, yet not too threatening right? And who is going to provide such military defense? Putin? The West? China?
“The harsh reality is there is currently no risk-free exit from this situation because the logical extension of ‘not provoking Putin’ is to agree to every single Russian demand with nary a sanction in response, as any pushback or slightest criticism simply raises the ‘nuclear question’ again. But in that scenario, nowhere is off limits to Russia – certainly not other former Soviet states, such as the Baltic states and ex-Warsaw Pact countries. Threats, no matter how apocalyptic, must be absorbed calmly and assessed on their true merits, not based on hysterical reaction. Precedent shows de-escalation and a willingness to negotiate only convinces Putin he is on the right track, while appeasement spurs him to make further demands.” (https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/negotiated-peace-russia-fraught-danger)
By starting this war Putin made clear that he himself is an existential threat not only to Ukraine, but to the entire West, and diplomacy doesn’t fare well with him.


> I'm not talking about Russia and Ukraine, I'm talking about all parties. That should include the US and Europe who are funding the war. they can't pretend to be innocent bystanders. Notwithstanding that, whether negotiations are taking place is not the question. Whether you support them is the question.

OK what do you mean by “support”? Show me how you would apply it to your position.


> That assumes the power in America lies in the various ventriloquist dolls chosen to act as mouthpieces for the vast industries which run America.

I don’t know exactly where the power lies: surely there are all kinds of powerful lobbies pulling strings and poking, in the US as anywhere else. The point is that depending on the power structure decision makers concentrate more or less power in their hands. This in turn affects the range of options they have and their capacity to put their decisions into effect as intended. That’s also why responsibility is easier to assess in the case of Putin, since the concentration of power in his hands is greater than in any western president, America included.


[i]> Again, whether they 'try to help' is what's in question.
> Does a supply of weapons help?[/i]

Well Zelensky is asking for military assistance to the West, and the West is supplying it. And it’s primarily up to the Ukrainians to assess if they get enough help.

> Is there any evidence that that's even the intention?

That’s irrelevant. I’m talking about moral reasons to help, not about intentions. Concerning intentions, what counts here is how fair and reliable commitments are for all the parties involved in a negotiation, partnership, alliance. If there are second, third, fourth interests is up to political actors to guess and to work with or around with.

> A supply of weapons certainly boosts the profits of one of the most politically powerful industries in the world. Are you arguing that that's a coincidence?

What did I say that made you think that I’m arguing that if a supply of weapons boosts the profits of one of the most politically powerful industries in the world, that’s a coincidence? What are the moral implications of such observation? Can you spell them out?

> You seem pretty clear that Putin's tactic (a gross brutish bombs-and-guns approach) is morally worse than, say America's (a more sophisticated economic domination causing death by famines, ill-health, and 'collateral damage' in their proxy wars).

Quote where I said that. Or show me how you could possibly infer such a claim from what I said.


> Then by what standard are you measuring?

Metrics are relevant wrt what people value. The death toll in a war counts, I don’t deny that. What I deny is that death toll is all that counts for moral considerations or that is what necessary counts for moral considerations (in the sense that we can’t take legitimate moral position until we know the number of the victims). Bombing hospitals, civilians and children is not morally defensible, giving stingers and javelins to Ukrainians that want to continue to fight against Russia also with stingers and javelins is morally defensible.



[i]> https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/04/are-ukrainian-values-closer-to-russia-or-to-europe/ — neomac
That's better. I don't see in there evidence that Ukraine clearly has more open views on standards of life than Russia. I see a complex picture. Views on homosexuality, for example. [/i]

I was referring only to these parts:
“In Ukraine (8.25), which is closer to European attitudes (see the 9.1 in Poland), there are very pronounced European aspirations;
[…] while in Russia there are, by comparison, less high aspirations for a well-functioning democracy, Russians are relatively satisfied. In Ukraine, aspirations are higher, but satisfaction is lower. It is precisely this discrepancy that may call for deep reform, something President Zelensky was confronted with during his presidency.
[…] To what extent can Europe ‘buoy’ Ukraine? Here we see precisely that Ukraine, which is not a member of the EU, has relatively high confidence in the European Union (2.4 on a scale of 1-4). This puts the country at the same height as Poland (2.4) and Belarus (2.3), and even higher than the Netherlands (2.2). It leaves Russia far behind (1.9)”.

These facts support relative value proximity between Ukraine and the West wrt Russia, and this is relevant too for my moral assessments.


[i]> you just repeated Putin’s demands and related blackmails without considering Ukrainian demands at all. — neomac

I know, that's why I said them. Those are the demands on the table at the moment, so of course they're Putin's. The argument was that they don't push Russian expansionism futher. They are the de facto positions already. [/i]

If we are talking about a negotiation between 2 parties, a third strategy that is opposing both should take into account what both parties demand, which you didn’t. Besides these negotiations depend on great power politics, right? Then again if we are talking about a geopolitical competition between 2 great powers, a third strategy that is opposing both, should take into account both strategic objectives (and longer term objectives are more relevant than shorter term objectives), which again you didn’t. And since accepting Putin’s demands (as they are) will empower Putin, then there would be more risks against the West, this is what needs to be opposed. Why? Because no great power politics pursues expansionism based on number of deaths, pieces of land, or who is the president per se but wrt increment of power relative to competitors. Besides, from that point of view what “Russia could get more” or “de facto positions” mean, depends on power costs/benefits calculi that take into account the Russian actual capacity to get more or preserve de facto positions, not how Russia is framing their demands. So no, you didn’t offer any third strategy, you just support Russians.


[i]> It's not about 'sides' it's about tactics. It's not possible to support a nation (like Russia, or the US or Ukraine). There are 41 million people in Ukraine and they have different opinions. You can't support them all. You're picking a method and supporting that.

> Therefore you do not care to offer an opposing strategy against Russian terroristic expansionism — neomac
Why would that lead from caring more about civilian lives?

> Again, it's methods, not reasons. Just because we have a moral reason to oppose Putin's expansionism, doesn't' give us free reign to do so by any method available.[/i]

From your claims what I take your line of reasoning to be is in short the following. Your method to decide which expansionism to support is based on counting deaths, directly or indirectly provoked by expansionist activities (whatever they are). So since the US has indirectly provoked more deaths in Yemen than Russia has directly provoked in Ukraine, then we should side with Russia.
If that is in short your line of reasoning, then let me stress once more that, from your own way of framing things, you are not opposing 2 expansionisms, you are supporting Russian expansionism as much as I support American expansionism, based on who/what we take to be the lesser evil between the two. And, always according to you, I would be wrong because I didn’t do the right math roughly based on the death toll metric.
Now to the point: I find your way of framing the moral dilemma (who is the lesser evil?) conceptually flawed. America and Russia as geopolitical agents are theoretical abstractions useful for historical and strategic thinking, they do not possess real agency and therefore they do not bear responsibilities, they are beyond good and evil. They represent self-preserving power structures that reacts to perceived threats to their expansion or to pursue expansion in competition with other self-preserving power structures, and we can assess how they perform based on the relative quota of power. And we should be vigilant about the ambiguities inherent in anthropomorphic talking about geopolitical agents as actual moral agents, or in conveniently assimilating geopolitical agents to their current political leaders or administrations.
A moral landscape however is not composed of geopolitical agents, but of moral agents with the actual capacity of taking informed decisions based on moral principles and things they value, and putting their decisions into effect based on available resources and means. So to decide what/whom morally support, my method is to identify the moral agents, see what they value, the proximity of what they value to our/my values, what means they have chosen and how they chose them, how much of the consequences ensuing from their actions was intentional, etc. assess moral reasons and take side accordingly.
Since you place responsibilities to power structures instead of real moral agents and assess moral costs based on a priori metrics (like death toll) without taking into account what people actually value, your position is simply preposterous in this case. And that’s all from my own assumptions.
But within your own assumptions, there are still lots of things to clarify. If expansionism is a causal reaction to threats, since there are always direct and indirect multi-causal links between competing powers’ perceived security threats and reactions then all powers in competition are potentially causally accountable of not some but all current deaths provoked by power struggles, so there is no reason to side with one or the other based on death counts. You could still claim that it's not matter of taking side anyways, just matter of supporting whatever it takes to end the war in the shortest term, but then would you support as well Palestinians submitting to whatever Israeli demands are and Yemeni submitting to whatever Saudi Arabian demands to end hostilities as soon as possible? Wouldn't this line of reasoning simply support whatever the status quo is, since no power can be radically challenged without risking meterial wellbeing and life? Besides, what if this “whatever it takes” for peace will likely increase the chance of more or greater wars around the world in the near future and so more deaths and misery? Multi-polarity indeed increased the probability of proxy wars, as the Cold War proves, if not wars, as the 2 past World Wars and colonial wars prove. Finally, I don’t even get why your moral assessment of competing great powers should be limited to the number deaths or misery provoked in proxy wars and not also in the standard of life and prosperity within their established sphere of influence. Why aren’t these metrics worth taking into account for moral considerations?


> Do you support those who do?

No I don’t support those who throw innocent civilians under tanks. Do you support the Russian soldiers who drive tanks to kill Ukrainian civilians ?


> Just because we have a moral reason to oppose Putin's expansionism, doesn't' give us free reign to do so by any method available.

So what?

[i]> Yes, but that's why the US's tactics in Yemen matter, because you're claiming to "take them into account”.

> Where have you 'taken into account' the fact that the US and Europe are responsible for tens of thousands of deaths too?[/i]

Nowhere obviously, because I’m talking about the war between Ukraine and Russia. As I said, if you want to talk about the West and Yemen, open a thread, try to prove this claim “the US and Europe are responsible for tens of thousands of deaths” and I will give you my feedback. My "take them into account” is focused on the topic under discussion, the war between Ukraine and Russia, not on any topic that comes to your mind based on your assumptions, which I’m still processing, and probably reject due to my assumptions.
ssu April 06, 2022 at 23:39 #678612
Quoting boethius
The Finnish story is not just "fighting the Russians".

It is fighting the Russians, then mutually agreeing war is not a good thing, and burying the hatchet, and learning to live as neighbour's with mutual respect (at least for a time) and mutual benefit wherever possible. Finland even paid war reparations to the Soviet Union. That price for independence was also paid, yet I never see mentioned.

Ah yes...and don't forget Finlandization. The wonderful term that the Germans invented to describe our relationship with our beloved Eastern neighbor. Just look how nicely the Presidents of Russia and Finland (the one that looked like Conan O'Brien) hold hands with a glass of champange. Just twelve years ago:
User image
jorndoe April 07, 2022 at 01:07 #678645
Quoting Isaac
It's not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed. Western governments decide in what way to assist. Ukrainian children die. They didn't get a say in the matter. If you think that's moral, that's your lookout, but I don't see how. I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet.


Flirting with victim blaming?
(Was about to type something about "bending over", but nevermind, we might be in mixed company.)
That pragmatic approach is sort of understandable enough. Yet, don't forget that people have been (systematically) killed by the hands of empires that rolled in before. Poland (having taking over half the Ukrainian refugees in by the way) would be an appropriate example. [sup](‡ below)[/sup]
Putin is to blame, unless he's mindless like the Black Death or something.
Ukraine won't be joining NATO ? Putin's main demand met, and has been for a bit now.
I guess a good 4 million has fled, and some are now returning, including children.


[sub]‡ Piotrowski's (2005) estimates of Polish World War 2 casualties:

Poland’s population in 1939:
——————————————————————————————
• Ethnic Poles: 22,700,000
• Jews: 3,400,000
• Other minorities: 9,000,000
——————————————————————————————
= 35,100,000

Poland’s World War 2 population losses:
———————————————————————————————————————
• Jewish: 3,100,000
• Ethnic Poles: 2,000,000
• Other minorities: 500,000
———————————————————————————————————————
= 5,600,000

Included in these losses:
———————————————————————————————————————————
• At German hands: 5,150,000
• At Soviet hands: 350,000
• At Ukrainian Nationalist hands: 100,000
———————————————————————————————————————————
= 5,600,000

[/sub]

I'm vaguely reminded of ...



FreeEmotion April 07, 2022 at 01:54 #678667
Quoting Sauna Diplomacy, the Finnish Recipe
President Kekkonen used to invite world leaders and other officials to his private sauna at the height of the Cold War


The picture of having a heated discussion with Finns during the height of the Cold War with alcohol involved sounds just too intriguing to pass up. Material for a great artist, maybe? Could call it "The Sauna"

These are a set of five Finnish high relief wood carvings of a traditional Finnish Sauna or 'Taking Sauna". Almost everyone in Finland either has a wood burning sauna in their back yards or has access to a sauna. The "taking sauna" is a part of Finnish culture
.

https://bluestarrgallery.blogspot.com/2013/03/finnish-high-relief-wood-carvings-of.html

FreeEmotion April 07, 2022 at 02:20 #678676
Quoting ssu
Just look how nicely the Presidents of Russia and Finland (the one that looked like Conan O'Brien)


I am very impressed with Finland. Keep up the propaganda. :)

Seriously, though, I think it instructive to take some sort of a detour and look at Finlands' history and culture. History being a series of accidents, maybe the same accidents could be made to happen elsewhere. Many factors at play - population density, foreign policy, education..

And the famous Finland schools with no homework.

Maybe there is something there: being forced to do homework in authoritarian school system have somehow closed the minds of President Putin and President Zelenskyy to look at authoritarian measures, to use force for what should be accomplished through natural devotion to duty? Maybe that is what the powers that be want.

Must be a thesis out there somewhere along those lines, psychology professor?
FreeEmotion April 07, 2022 at 03:28 #678691
Quoting Christoffer
Ok, let's make it super clear. The conclusion is originally more: "Teaching critical thinking is needed to help people see past authoritarian propaganda." So, dividing them into two inductive arguments:


I agree, but let's not limit ourselves to one form of government. Let's look at all forms of government. Do they teach effective criticism of government? Do they teach about money at all - this is Robert Kyiosaki's thesis - schools will not teach about money - why?

Teach them to ask this question in schools, for a change:

Is “democracy” really America’s cause? Is “autocracy” really America’s great adversary in the battle for the future?

Not all autocrats, after all, are our enemies, nor are all democrats our reliable friends.


https://buchanan.org/blog/is-global-democracy-americas-mission-159244

This authoritarian mindset is an unavoidable consequence of the American education system. Indeed, while so-called education reformers insist on more tests, pushing schools to emulate the Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean educational systems, they miss a big piece of the puzzle: educators in those countries consider their systems a failure. Despite performing better than American children on certain international standardized tests, Chinese educators have noted that Chinese students have also demonstrated a “lack of social and practical skills, absence of self-discipline and imagination, loss of curiosity and passion for learning.”


https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/transforming_americas_schools_into_authoritarian_instruments_of_compli


Benkei April 07, 2022 at 05:13 #678719
Reply to RogueAI That's an interesting equivocation there. If you wanted to ask a question about Stalin and FDR, you should've asked that question. Or is this that game where you keep adding qualifiers to a question and move the goal posts until I agree with you? Yeah, not interested.

Also, check out when FDR was no longer president, when Stalin died and when NATO and the Warsaw Pact were established. Let me know the dates please.

ssu April 07, 2022 at 05:46 #678733
Quoting FreeEmotion
And the famous Finland schools with no homework.

Maybe there is something there: being forced to do homework in authoritarian school system have somehow closed the minds of President Putin and President Zelenskyy to look at authoritarian measures, to use force for what should be accomplished through natural devotion to duty? Maybe that is what the powers that be want.


In continuing to be annoying on this thread, I have to disagree and make a correction:

Finnish schools do have homework.

(What they lack is nationwide standardized testing as only in the Gymnasium there is one standardized test for graduation.)
ssu April 07, 2022 at 06:01 #678739
Quoting jorndoe
I guess a good 4 million has fled, and some are now returning, including children.

Yet notice that even the Ukrainian government has urged people to leave eastern Ukraine now, and with the reality of what denazification looks like on the ground emerging, people likely will move. This works fine to Putin's objectives as the last thing he would want in the Novorossiya he is looking for to have a large hostile population of Ukrainians.

What is positive is that Belarus seems to have escaped (for now) the war as Putin hasn't demanded that they would join the special military operation. With Russians withdrawing from the Northern front around Kyiv this looks likely to continue.
FreeEmotion April 07, 2022 at 06:06 #678740
Quoting ssu
In continuing to be annoying on this thread, I have to disagree and make a correction:


I don't think you are clear on the concept of being annoying but that is fine. I got that data from a documentary.

This one documentary may be more accurate: the least number of schooling hours per week, and well trained teachers, and what looks like group work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlYHWpRR4yc

ssu April 07, 2022 at 06:13 #678746
Quoting Benkei
You can disagree with it but that's the position Russia will take.


The Mearsheimer line that Chomsky is echoing is the typical US focused view, which totally disregards the other totally obvious agenda that Russia has for Ukraine. This should be obvious from what Putin and Russian leaders say. It's should be obvious from the fact that the Russian regime has echoed the line of the artificiality of the Ukrainian state, which has nothing to do with NATO enlargement.

But that doesn't matter at all, as you have pointed out that you don't care about Russian politics. So keep on insisting that the only issue here is NATO enlargement and the actions of the West. Yes, that's one point. But the world isn't monocausal.

Without NATO enlargement, the Russians likely would have military bases in the Baltic states again.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 06:30 #678751
Reply to Apollodorus Your elements are meagre. Economies are interconnected and derivatives are a small market. One could mount a reverse argument that New York is controlled by Paris because of all the French cheese they eat there.... It's just blah. The US and the UK are sinking into mass stupidity, while the EU keeps developing. .
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 06:41 #678754
Reply to ssu That's a load of crap and you know it.

We see a huge consistency across the board for decades in what Russian governments have said for decades, the promises made in the 90s to Russia (not one inch to the East after German reunification) and how its interpretation of the Minsk II agreement is fully consistent with reaching this goal (eg. influence foreign policy via Donetsk and Luhansk).

On the other hand we have every military scholar telling you that Russian control of Ukraine is impossible. It would be another Afghanistan. So whatever is said about the artificiality of Ukraine is irrelevant because it's not a realistic goal.

It has always been and will continue to be the implied threat of NATO encirclement of Russia. That's the driver of conflict in this region and Russia has warned about it for decades.

Quoting ssu
Without NATO enlargement, the Russians likely would have military bases in the Baltic states again.


Aside from this being crystal ball theories I don't care to pursue I don't get why you're still under the impression that living within the imperial reach of one empire is better than another. It's obviously worse when two contest such reach in a given region as we seen now in Ukraine.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 06:52 #678758
Quoting neomac
There is an anthropological fact ... Nationality is one way we understand our social identity.


That's not an anthropological fact, it's an anthropological theory.

Quoting neomac
> The working class in both societies have more common interest against the ruling classes of both societies than the entire population of one has against the entire population of another.

Common in what sense? What are the evidences to support your claim?


So now I'm to provide 'evidence' yet you get to simply declare things to be 'anthropological fact' without a shred of it? Why the double standard?

As to the first question. What they have in common is oppression. Something I though you were all in favour of fighting against. It is an economic fact that the working class are oppressed by the elite classes, but apparently, that oppression doesn't qualify for you support. Not enough 'anthropological facts' behind it perhaps?

Quoting neomac
to talk about responsibility you need agency. And with your analysis you should still prove Zelensky’s responsibility from “Ukrainian children are killed by Russian soldiers” and not from “Ukrainian children die”, if you want to make sense to me.


It's pretty simple. If someone orders (or even supports) continued fighting, they bear some moral responsibility for all the foreseeable consequences of that decision. One of the foreseeable consequences is that more Ukrainian children will die. I don't understand what's so hard about that.

Quoting neomac
Children don’t get a saying in anything because they are children.


Not getting a literal 'say' is not the same as not having their interests considered.

Quoting neomac
So you wanted to suggest a third strategy opposing Russian and American expansionism and now you want Zelensky gone


What? Where did I write anything even remotely related to deposing Zelensky?

Quoting neomac
the flaw in your reasoning lies in the fact that your moral claims do not take into account what Ukrainians value, as I do. For example, if I were Ukrainian...


Are you serious? Your evidence for you taking Ukrainian values into account and me not is that you've thought about what you would do if you were a Ukrainian? Do you not realise how ludicrous that sounds?

Quoting neomac
There are unavoidable evidences and compelling reasons for mistrust.


Yes. I know. As there are in every single negotiation ever. So I was asking you how you measured the degree of mistrust on this occasion to be 'too much' mistrust.

Quoting neomac
> I'm not talking about Russia and Ukraine, I'm talking about all parties. That should include the US and Europe who are funding the war. they can't pretend to be innocent bystanders. Notwithstanding that, whether negotiations are taking place is not the question. Whether you support them is the question.

OK what do you mean by “support”? Show me how you would apply it to your position.


America and Europe entering into negotiations with Russia.

Quoting neomac
> Again, whether they 'try to help' is what's in question.
> Does a supply of weapons help?

Well Zelensky is asking for military assistance to the West, and the West is supplying it. And it’s primarily up to the Ukrainians to assess if they get enough help.


You've not answered the question. Does supplying weapons help?

Quoting neomac
> Is there any evidence that that's even the intention?

That’s irrelevant. I’m talking about moral reasons to help


So intention has nothing to do with morality? If I intend to murder someone, but end up accidentally helping them, that's exactly the same, morally, as if I intended to help them all along?

Quoting neomac
> You seem pretty clear that Putin's tactic (a gross brutish bombs-and-guns approach) is morally worse than, say America's (a more sophisticated economic domination causing death by famines, ill-health, and 'collateral damage' in their proxy wars).

Quote where I said that. Or show me how you could possibly infer such a claim from what I said.


Quoting neomac
from a more concrete and personal point of view there is a big difference in how this influence is deployed: e.g. Isis might want to put their flag in our decapitated head, while the US might want to put their flag on the sandwich we are eating. Do you see the difference? Because if you don’t, I do and I value it.


I took that to be a claim that you value the economic dominance of the US over the territorial dominance of ISIS (a more extreme example you used in our discussion about Russian tactics).

Quoting neomac
Bombing hospitals, civilians and children is not morally defensible, giving stingers and javelins to Ukrainians that want to continue to fight against Russia also with stingers and javelins is morally defensible.


Why? If not the death and destruction these actions cause, then what is the moral force?

Quoting neomac
I was referring only to these parts:


The parts that support your statement - not the parts that don't. Cherry-picking, in other words.

Quoting neomac
If we are talking about a negotiation between 2 parties, a third strategy that is opposing both should take into account what both parties demand, which you didn’t.


I assume Ukraine demand that the invasion stops.

Quoting neomac
since accepting Putin’s demands (as they are) will empower Putin, then there would be more risks against the West, this is what needs to be opposed.


Putin is currently consolidating his power. So should we stop sanctions on those grounds? You seem to be just appealing to whatever notions happen to support your already chosen course of action. There's no reason at all to assume that agreeing to terms would increase Putin's power any more than not agreeing and losing the war. Or not agreeing and having NATO have to step in and win the war - both of which might end up increasing Putin's power, cementing his alliance with China and worsening the global political balance of power.

Quoting neomac
Your method to decide which expansionism to support is based on counting deaths, directly or indirectly provoked by expansionist activities (whatever they are). So since the US has indirectly provoked more deaths in Yemen than Russia has directly provoked in Ukraine, then we should side with Russia.
If that is in short your line of reasoning, then let me stress once more that, from your own way of framing things, you are not opposing 2 expansionisms, you are supporting Russian expansionism


You're assuming war is the only way to oppose expansionism. I disagree with the US using war to oppose Russian expansionism. I don't disagree with it being opposed in other senses.

Quoting neomac
I don’t even get why your moral assessment of competing great powers should be limited to the number deaths or misery provoked in proxy wars and not also in the standard of life and prosperity within their established sphere of influence. Why aren’t these metrics worth taking into account for moral considerations?


I think they are. What standard of living to anticipate Ukrainians having after the US has finished drafting the terms of its loan agreements? Cuts to welfare spending, opening up markets to US competitors. You think those policies are going to benefit the poor in Ukraine?

Quoting neomac
If expansionism is a causal reaction to threats, since there are always direct and indirect multi-causal links between competing powers’ perceived security threats and reactions then all powers in competition are potentially causally accountable of not some but all current deaths provoked by power struggles, so there is no reason to side with one or the other based on death counts. You could still claim that it's not matter of taking side anyways, just matter of supporting whatever it takes to end the war in the shortest term, but then would you support as well Palestinians submitting to whatever Israeli demands are and Yemeni submitting to whatever Saudi Arabian demands to end hostilities as soon as possible?


Why would I ignore what the terms are? I've never even mentioned "whatever it takes". The terms here just so happen to be the de facto state of affairs. fighting over them is a waste of human life. Fighting over other terms might not be as they may be more immiserating than the war.

Quoting neomac
> Just because we have a moral reason to oppose Putin's expansionism, doesn't' give us free reign to do so by any method available.

So what?


What kind of answer is that. It was a simple question. Do we have free reign to oppose Putin's expansionism by any means possible. IF torture would stop Putin's expansionism could we torture? If not, then the moral opposition becomes irrelevant whilst we're discussing methods, because the morality of the method is primary.

Quoting neomac
> Where have you 'taken into account' the fact that the US and Europe are responsible for tens of thousands of deaths too?

Nowhere obviously, because I’m talking about the war between Ukraine and Russia.


The war is financed, given military and strategic support, and politically influenced by the US and Europe. You can't just bracket them out as if they had no relevance.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 06:55 #678760
Quoting ssu
This should be obvious...


More of that [s]agree with ssu[/s] common sense we've been hearing about I suppose? Funny how you seem to be so utterly unfailing in your application of this universal human trait, yet dozens of expert foreign policy advisors, Security chiefs and military experts seem to not see what is so [s]ssu's opinion[/s] obvious.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 06:58 #678761
Quoting jorndoe
I'm vaguely reminded of ...


I'm not surprised. Most here seem to think this crisis is an episode of Star Wars.
Punshhh April 07, 2022 at 07:01 #678763
Reply to Benkei
Chomsky
Yes the the geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia continue to play out. Following the fall of the USSR this point was always going to be reached, the difference being just where the dividing lines will be on the map. It’s looking like a new iron curtain will divide east Ukraine. If NATO hadn’t expanded, a newly moneyed Russia would have.

What brought this to a head was the vast oil and gas revenues given to Russia. Have you noticed hundreds of super yachts turning up in exotic hideaways over recent weeks. Putin has a trillion $ war chest just sitting there in front of him. He has spent two years in covid isolation. This is not a surprise.

This could be the beginning of a new stable Cold War period. Although there is a much bigger demon looming over the horizon. Climate change.

I can already see the rich and powerful scurrying around before they get ready to abandon ship. In the U.K. we look on as our country is asset stripped by unsavoury characters. A smash and grab raid before the sh*t really hits the fan.

Going forward, which hegemony would you prefer, US, Russia, or China?

I know which one I will chose. I have a friend who was on the Greenpeace ship that was captured by Russia a few years back. Three months in a concrete cell in Murmansk in winter woke him up. He would probably still be there if it wasn’t the run up to the Russian Winter Olympics, when Putin pardoned them as a goodwill gesture.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 07:18 #678767
Reply to Punshhh I would prefer European hegemony in Europe without foreign military presence and maybe finally some equity and fairness across the world.

Don't ask me to eat shit and express a preference. ;-)

Which system got us the climate crisis?

EDIT: Or, how many millions were ground to death on the altar of capitalism and how many more?
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 07:35 #678771
Quoting ssu
But that doesn't matter at all, as you have pointed out that you don't care about Russian politics.


Also just to point out that what I said is that I don't give a shit about internal Russian politics when concerned about war, which is about international relations and foreign policy.

It's also funny how we managed to deal with Stalin, a veritable madman, and had him ally with us and how we should thank the diplomats and politicians they did or we'd be speaking German and sieg heiling when walking to work. But then Putin all of a sudden is so horrible that it's "we can never have peace when this butcher is in power". It's just amazing the shit people believe nowadays and how entire segments just uncritically go along with it. "yeah, yeah, he's a horrible criminal. Can't have peace. Regime change. We're the best, no blood on our hands." Fuck Europe for the pansy pussies they are and the US for being a warmongering genocidal empire.
ssu April 07, 2022 at 08:59 #678791
Quoting Benkei
That's a load of crap and you know it.


Bullshit Benkei!

Crimea is part of Russia now, Russia, not a proxy state but part of it. Part of holy Russian motherland. And a lot more would have been part of it (or as satellite states) in 2014 if Putin would had his way. Now we have the second try taking place.

To be incapable of seeing that Russia has far more interests in Ukraine and it's near abroad than just keeping NATO out is simply a sign of denial in your behalf. And shows bit of this intellectual hubris where everything revolves around the West and the US and it's bad intentions. Nothing else seems to matter.

Quoting Benkei
On the other hand we have every military scholar telling you that Russian control of Ukraine is impossible.

Now. After 8 years of extensive NATO training and aid to a country that has already been fighting a limited war for 8 years. In 2014 the Russians waltzed into Crimea without nearly a shot fired. Then the Ukrainian armed forces was capable to deploy only 6 000 men to the field in it's entirety. So weak they were then.

Quoting Benkei
the promises made in the 90s to Russia

The promises made to the Soviet Union, actually, which Ukraine was a part of. But don't let the little details bother your case against the US and in the defense of victim Russia, which was "forced" to act this way. There was no other way, of course.

Quoting Benkei
I don't get why you're still under the impression that living within the imperial reach of one empire is better than another.

Oh you don't get it? The political prisoners that number now more than during the end of Soviet Union doesn't tell anything to you? The imperialist right-wing demagoguery coming from Russia doesn't mean anything to you? Seems like it's totally similar choices for you either to be under "Bidenland" or "Putinland".

How has it been for you to live "under one empire"? Because me and @Christopher haven't been living under it, but our countries seem to be willing to join now on side. For me the happiness of Finlandization is all too clear as I've grown up during the Cold War so I remember it.

Quoting Benkei
Fuck Europe for the pansy pussies they are and the US for being a warmongering genocidal empire.

Fuck those who are only against the wrongdoings of the US, who not only fall silent of other similar wrongdoings, but become actively apologists and defenders of those actions because they are perpetrated by those who oppose the US. Talk about accepting willingly the thinking that the enemies of my enemies being my friends. The inability to condemn both sides when they do bad things is so surprising and so telling.
Punshhh April 07, 2022 at 09:06 #678792
Reply to Benkei Oh, I missed out EU hegemony, I must have been distracted by something. Yes I’d opt for that all day long, of course.

I’m not sure the alternative to capitalism would have been any better.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 09:19 #678794
Quoting Benkei
Fuck Europe for the pansy pussies they are and the US for being a warmongering genocidal empire.


And fuck the bear suckers.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 10:08 #678821
And least we forget, the bear suckers are not content with barely sucking bears. They also suck the American extreme right.


Quoting the Guardian
False and conspiratorial narratives pushed by some American conservative politicians and media figures about Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine have bolstered and created synergies with the Kremlin’s legendary disinformation machine, experts on information manipulation say.

But even though Russia has embraced and promoted American disinformation, as well as the Kremlin’s own much larger stock of Ukraine war falsehoods, both brands have been widely debunked by experts and most media outlets, underscoring Moscow’s setbacks in the information war.

Led by Tucker Carlson at Fox News, a few Republican rightwingers in Congress, and some conservative activists, a spate of comments that have disparaged Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and echoed other Russian war disinformation have been recycled by Moscow, say experts.

A feedback loop between the Kremlin and parts of the American right has been palpable since the war’s start in February, which Moscow falsely labeled as a “special military operation” aimed at stopping “genocide” of Russians in Ukraine and “denazification” – two patently bogus charges that drew widespread international criticism.

Still, the influential figure of Carlson has pushed several false narratives to millions of Fox News viewers that have been eagerly embraced and recycled by Moscow and parts of the American right. Last month, for example, Carlson touted rightwing conspiracies that attempted to link Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, to a discredited allegation that the US financed bioweapons labs in Ukraine.

On a separate front, two Republican congressional conservatives, Madison Cawthorn and Marjorie Taylor Greene, delighted Moscow last month by condemning Zelenskiy without evidence in conspiracy-ridden terms that sparked some bipartisan criticism. Cawthorn called Zelenskiy a “thug” and his government “incredibly corrupt”, while Greene similarly charged that Zelenskiy was “corrupt”.

Further, the former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat, last month attempted to soften and spin Putin’s onerous crackdown on independent media in Russia, where reporters and other citizens now can face prison terms of 15 years for not toeing the Kremlin’s Orwellian war line and for spreading what Moscow deems “fake” news about its Ukraine invasion. Gabbard made the wild claim that “what we’re seeing happening here [in America] is not so different from what we’re seeing happening in Russia”.



Doesn't that rhetoric sound familiar? We can read the exact same kind of crap here, written by the likes of @Benkei, @Isaac or mage @boethius.
Baden April 07, 2022 at 10:17 #678824
Baden April 07, 2022 at 10:33 #678826
Quoting ssu
Fuck those who are only against the wrongdoings of the US, who not only fall silent of other similar wrongdoings, but become actively apologists and defenders of those actions because they are perpetrated by those who oppose the US. Talk about accepting willingly the thinking that the enemies of my enemies being my friends. The inability to condemn both sides when they do bad things is so surprising and so telling.


I don't think that fairly represents @Benkei's position. But he can speak for himself. Before I get tarred with the same brush, I suppose I should emphasize again, the invasion of Ukraine has been brutal, unjustified, and I unequivocally condemn it. That doesn't mean I can't criticize NATO too. But the extent of Russia's apparent war crimes is the more pressing issue now as it's the dominant narrative and it makes any settlement favourable to Russia much harder to reach and therefore a deescalation much harder to achieve. So, I'm much less confident of a solution in the forseeable future and also less confident about how the issue should be approached. On the one hand, ideally, the war just needs to stop even if that means concessions to Russia. On the other hand, the brutality meted out to Ukranian civilians can't go unanswered.
Christoffer April 07, 2022 at 10:34 #678827
Quoting FreeEmotion
I agree, but let's not limit ourselves to one form of government. Let's look at all forms of government. Do they teach effective criticism of government? Do they teach about money at all


I agree. That argument was more focused on the effect of education for people who don't have access to it or are in some ways not allowed by their government, for the obvious reasons of keeping the propaganda narrative intact. But my take on epistemic responsibility is that schools should include media literacy and critical thinking as part of the curriculum of foundational skills like reading, writing, and math. Education cannot use the same idea about how individuals navigate through life today as it was before the internet, before media became part of the internet, and bot-algorithmic manipulation of the truth happens at millisecond speed.

Quoting FreeEmotion
Teach them to ask this question in schools, for a change:

Is “democracy” really America’s cause? Is “autocracy” really America’s great adversary in the battle for the future?

Not all autocrats, after all, are our enemies, nor are all democrats our reliable friends.


Questions are part of critical thinking, also fine-tuning a number of sequential questions in order to deconstruct a concept. Like, asking those questions can lead to questions about why some nations fail at democracy, why some autocracies work, but not others.

The problem is generally that teachers aren't educated in how to manage such lectures, how to give students the creative freedom of such investigations while making sure they always stay on track with not getting into bias or making faulty arguments. In essence work in a Socratic way.

I don't buy for a second the US narrative of spreading democracy and peace. They have massive interests and by playing chess with the world with clever wording, they can make sure such interests are made.

Education, in my perspective, is a key part in making sure future generations stand up against anything that isn't good for all of humanity. Indoctrination is the enemy of the world, inventing narratives for people to be biased towards so they won't criticize what is actually going on, as well as making sure conspiracy theories won't blind people from real issues. Governments of the world must be somewhat glad about the extreme spread of conspiracy theories because they know those groups won't ever have enough power, but also that they get all the attention of the media and social media so that real issues and agendas become easier to hide.

But all of this needs a heavy load of responsibility, epistemic responsibility. Nothing is black and white and it's easy to march against the problems of the world and be wrapped up in further bias through that. Like how many are unable to criticize Russia enough for their actions in Ukraine, always moving into whataboutism because they've been critics of the US for so many years they've forgotten about Russia, even stood by Russia because they oppose the US. Epistemic responsibility works in every direction.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 10:41 #678828
Quoting Christoffer
epistemic responsibility


Funny how the advocates of 'epistemic responsibility' are always the most dogmatic about their own beliefs. We've heard the notion before on this very site. It translates roughly as "reach the same conclusion I reach!"
Christoffer April 07, 2022 at 10:43 #678830
Quoting Baden
Guilt by Association Fallacy


Isn't guilt by association about making the connection to such a group first and then go into the argument or avoiding criticism? Didn't Oliver connect the rhetoric similarities, not the people, in order to show how the rhetoric, their actual arguments, and opinions share similarities? I'm not sure that's a guilt association fallacy?

"Person A's opinion is bad because he's just part of "that group", is an example of guilt by association. But "Person B's rhetoric and opinions sound exactly like "that group" focuses on the actual argument's similarities with another group's arguments.
Baden April 07, 2022 at 10:50 #678831
Reply to Christoffer

From the link:

"A guilt by association fallacy occurs when someone connects an opponent to a demonized group of people or to a bad person in order to discredit his or her argument."

Quoting Olivier5
Doesn't that rhetoric sound familiar? We can read the exact same kind of crap here, written by the likes of Benkei, @Isaac or mage @boethius.


QED.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 10:58 #678833
Quoting Baden
QED


Yes. But is @Olivier5 trying to smear me, Benkei and boethius by association with Carlson and Taylor Greene, or is he trying to smear Carlson and Taylor Greene by association with me, Benkei and boethius!

ssu April 07, 2022 at 11:01 #678834
Quoting Baden
That doesn't mean I can't criticize NATO too.

That's my whole point! It doesn't mean that I wouldn't criticize (or haven't criticized) NATO when it has done stupid things. But dare to say something about Russia's actions or intentions, and obviously you're a NATO jihadist in need of therapy.

Yet to hold the view that this war is solely a result of NATO enlargement and that Russia has been forced to respond with war because of this is biased narrow reasoning. It's simply an apologism. To dismiss totally the actual rhetoric and the actions that Putin's regime, what it has been telling and implementing for years is dishonest.

Benkei April 07, 2022 at 11:02 #678835
Quoting Punshhh
I’m not sure the alternative to capitalism would have been any better.


I'd consider that a lack of imagination. Medieval peasants worked less than the average American and we're inexorably moving in that direction in Europe as well. By some measures feudalism would be preferable depending on what stage of capitalism you're living in.

Quoting ssu
Fuck those who are only against the wrongdoings of the US, who not only fall silent of other similar wrongdoings, but become actively apologists and defenders of those actions because they are perpetrated by those who oppose the US. Talk about accepting willingly the thinking that the enemies of my enemies being my friends. The inability to condemn both sides when they do bad things is so surprising and so telling.


Ah, we're back to the moral judgments again. Boring. I don't need to condemn Russia because 90% of the posters here already do it without any reservation and realisation of the broader picture. I

Crimea never would've become a part of Russia if the US hadn't been meddling in the internal affairs of Ukraine for decades already. As warned about by Kissinger, the only way for Ukraine to survive was to pursue neutrality. The US made that impossible.

The hypocrisy is also annoying as if the US wouldn't do the same when China invited Mexico to join a military alliance, which is precisely why it had intervened in almost every southern American country during the cold War and there's still a blockade of Cuba going on.

Basically you're getting your moral panties in a twist for Russia doing the same that the West has done for centuries. How dare those barbarians!
Christoffer April 07, 2022 at 11:04 #678836
Quoting Baden
From the link:

"A guilt by association fallacy occurs when someone connects an opponent to a demonized group of people or to a bad person in order to discredit his or her argument."

Doesn't that rhetoric sound familiar? We can read the exact same kind of crap here, written by the likes of Benkei, Isaac or mage @boethius.
— Olivier5

QED.


:up:

So the correct thing to do is to rather ask the question... Why is their rhetoric similar to "that group"?
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 11:05 #678837
Quoting Isaac
But is Olivier5 trying to smear me, Benkei and boethius by association with Carlson and Taylor Greene, or is he trying to smear Carlson and Taylor Greene by association with me, Benkei and boethius!


Not smearing, just pointing out that you spit out the same lies as they are. It could simply mean that you all live in the same parallel reality.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 11:06 #678838
ssu April 07, 2022 at 11:07 #678839
Quoting Benkei
Crimea never would've become a part of Russia if the US hadn't been meddling in the internal affairs of Ukraine for decades already.

Hypotheticals are difficult as you yourself implied, but simply use your head here, Benkei. I know you have one.

If all of this would because of NATO enlargement and the US, why the annexation of Crimea?

Why is according to Putin Ukraine an artificial state?

Why all the talk of Novorossiya?

Have you ever read what Putin has written about Ukraine?

Benkei April 07, 2022 at 11:13 #678841
Reply to Baden There's an immediate problem how to stop this current war. I find the atrocities committed by the Russians within the scope of what I expected. It's not fundamentally worse than Fallujah or Haditha and I think it's being exagerrated so the US/NATO can do the "we don't negotiate with war criminals" shtick so as to avoid any meaningful progress towards a ceasefire in the short term.

There's a long term problem that the EU and the US and UK need to negotiate a definitive demarcation with Russia which countries are simply off limits for joining NATO. And that's where you get the useless "sovereignty" worshipers and the "freedom" rhetoric that are the real barriers to a negotiated long term peace. You can't undermine rule-based international relations on the one hand and then demand other countries need to follow the rules you have no problem breaking. That will never result in peace.
FreeEmotion April 07, 2022 at 11:14 #678842
Quoting Christoffer
Indoctrination is the enemy of the world, inventing narratives for people to be biased towards so they won't criticize what is actually going on, as well as making sure conspiracy theories won't blind people from real issues. Governments of the world must be somewhat glad about the extreme spread of conspiracy theories because they know those groups won't ever have enough power, but also that they get all the attention of the media and social media so that real issues and agendas become easier to hide.


It is good to seek agreement here: yes, it is highly probable that education, like other systems of government, serve to promote a certain agenda.

I have a theory about conspiracy theories and proponents of conspiracy theories: the survival of the fittest. Those websites that are seen as fit to survive are exactly the ones that promote far out theories that do not stand up to any reason alongside more credible issues. These entire sites can then be easily dismissed, like the tabloids of old. In fact, it may be a requirement to put forward absurd stories alongside ones that are very close to the truth in order to survive.

Unfortunately it is only war and human suffering that breaks the illusion: something can't be right if people are getting killed, so there is no argument that can work around that fact.

Quoting Christoffer
Like how many are unable to criticize Russia enough for their actions in Ukraine, always moving into whataboutism because they've been critics of the US for so many years they've forgotten about Russia, even stood by Russia because they oppose the US. Epistemic responsibility works in every direction.


Just to be clear, I stand with the UN Charter. I think there has been enough time and material to decide on the invasion of Iraq, and Afghanistan, but only the next few years will reveal the complete story of the Russian SMO in Ukraine. At that time I was so impressed with the narrative on Iraq that I saw Iraq and Afghanistan as 'us' vs 'them'. I have since made up my mind. In the same way, once I have a look at the information concerning Yemen, I will make up my mind.

On balance, however, given President Zelenskyy's performance and his actions, doing things I would neither do as a person, nor want my elected officials to do, make me doubt that President Putin had any options.

It is a very curious fact, I ask again and again, what options did President Putin have? Not to 'invade'? Would we have to wait until Ukraine joins NATO and Ukraine re-takes Crimea and stations missiles in Ukraine, accompanied by popular uprising in Russia because President Putin would not stand up to them? I do not know, just raising the possibility.

I am quoting again the agreement between Ukraine and the United States, below, including the laughable statement of non recognition of "attempted" "annexation" of Crimea. Students of the English language and logic should be able to see the contradiction here, language driven by rabid ideology rather than sense. To me, and this is my opinion, these are fighting words.

The following is the text of the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership signed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Washington, D.C. on November 10, 2021.


Emphasize unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, including Crimea and extending to its territorial waters in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, which threatens regional peace and stability and undermines the global rules-based order.

The United States and Ukraine intend to continue a range of substantive measures to prevent external direct and hybrid aggression against Ukraine and hold Russia accountable for such aggression and violations of international law, including the seizure and attempted annexation of Crimea and the Russia-led armed conflict in parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, as well as its continuing malign behavior.

The United States does not and will never recognize Russia’s attempted annexation of Crimea and reaffirms its full support for international efforts, including in the Normandy Format, aimed at negotiating a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-led armed conflict in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine on the basis of respect for international law, including the UN Charter.


The United States intends to support Ukraine’s efforts to counter armed aggression, economic and energy disruptions, and malicious cyber activity by Russia, including by maintaining sanctions against or related to Russia and applying other relevant measures until restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.


https://www.state.gov/u-s-ukraine-charter-on-strategic-partnership/
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 11:17 #678844
Quoting Christoffer
Didn't Oliver connect the rhetoric similarities, not the people, in order to show how the rhetoric, their actual arguments, and opinions share similarities?


Exactly. @Baden is confusing a topical argument with an ad hominem.
FreeEmotion April 07, 2022 at 11:19 #678846
Quoting Benkei
As warned about by Kissinger, the only way for Ukraine to survive was to pursue neutrality. The US made that impossible.


I believe Kissinger's statements were part of a conspiracy or a public relations effort to produced a feigned balance to the Obama regime's and the Biden Regime's intentions. I do not believe a patriot such as he is would ever stop serving US interests- it will make his life much easier.

We would do well to question every statement as a lie or a gimmick and work from there. There is a war going on, for sure, and that is undeniable. Neither side has declared victory. Who is supporting whom is not known.
Baden April 07, 2022 at 11:23 #678847
Quoting Christoffer
So the correct thing to do is to rather ask the question... Why is their rhetoric similar to "that group"?


No, the correct thing to do is address their arguments, which stand on their own merit.

Reply to Olivier5

You connected them in order to discredit your opponents.

Quoting Olivier5
We can read the exact same kind of crap here


Your ridiculous denials are amusing but eventually you will have to address your opponents' arguments on their merits or you will simply be seen as someone who has no ability to do so. Your choice.
Baden April 07, 2022 at 11:29 #678848
Reply to Benkei

You can argue that these atrocities mirror those in Iraq and elsewhere but you can't argue that they are not the current narrative. That horse has left the stable and they have to be addressed. The question is how does that play out? I see brick walls to progress everywhere at the moment.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 11:31 #678849
Reply to ssu Look, I appreciate often what you bring to the table from a historical perspective, but when this exact situation has been predicted for over 25 years as a result of NATO expansion I'm going to go with the theory that was actually accurate. I wrote a paper as part of my studies in 1998 predicting that treating Russia as a de facto enemy to be contained would be tantamount to a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is why I argued for economic integration before it got to that point. Even at 20 years I wasn't so blind as to think that NATO was purely a defensive organisation. Just like in chess, how you can attack without actually taking a single piece. And yes, I'm waaaaayyy more cynical about Western power since then. Colonial history is a big part of Dutch history and as an international human rights lawyer I'm well aware of all the abuses that happened in the past 30 years. Happy to share some book titles with you that got me this cynical about the exercise of Western power (with the US taking center stage).

Crimea was annexed because it contains Russian naval bases giving it access to the Mediterranean and I think the worry of Russians living thereseeing right sector ultra-nationalist and flags and symbols associated with Nazi collaborators in Maidan square honestly were worried. So an easy sell and it sold well, his approval ratings sky-rocketed.

I don't think Putin's musings on the artificiality of Ukraine inform actual policy. Just as his waxing lyrical about the USSR doesn't. I see nothing in circumstances and facts that reinforce this as important. But of course Putin is a habitual liar and we shouldn't believe anything he says except when it fits a specific narrative. You can't eat your cake and have it.
Baden April 07, 2022 at 11:32 #678850
Quoting Isaac
Yes. But is Olivier5 trying to smear me, Benkei and boethius by association with Carlson and Taylor Greene, or is he trying to smear Carlson and Taylor Greene by association with me, Benkei and boethius!


I suspect you are Tucker Carlson, so the difference is moot. :eyes:

Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 11:41 #678852
Quoting Baden
You connected them in order to discredit your opponents.


My opponents, as you say, are parroting the FSB and Carlson. I ask them to do better than that.

Quoting Baden
Your ridiculous denials are amusing but eventually you will have to address your opponents' arguments on their merits or you will simply be seen as someone who has no ability to do so. Your choice.


Thanks for the advice. I've been doing just that but apparently you didn't pay attention. I conclude that nothing I can do will ever stop you from misjudging me.
FreeEmotion April 07, 2022 at 11:46 #678853
Quoting Benkei
I wrote a paper as part of my studies in 1998 predicting that treating Russia as a de facto enemy to be contained would be tantamount to a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is why I argued for economic integration before it got to that point.


If you knew that, or thought it highly probable,then don't you think the people running NATO would have known that, and thought it highly probable as well? Doesn't it follow that they were playing Russian Roulette? I don't understand.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 11:55 #678856
Reply to Baden I don't disagree with your assessment and not pretending there are no atrocities. But the problem in my view is the hawks in the guise of "moral knighthood" will use it as an excuse to stall and not engage in necessary talks to negotiate a ceasefire. The problem towards peace isn't the atrocities themselves, it's relevant parties using those atrocities as an excuse to do nothing.

There's also a sort of hubris in it where the powers that be are outraged on behalf of dead victims who no longer have a voice without any view on the living victims and what they want. It's like being outraged about abortion but not willing to spend money on taking care of children's education or orphanages.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 11:57 #678857
Reply to FreeEmotion It's the reason why we can assume bad faith or stupidity on the part of the US.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 11:58 #678859
Quoting Benkei
The problem towards peace isn't the atrocities themselves, it's relevant parties using those atrocities as an excuse to do nothing.


No comment -- this speaks for itself.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 12:03 #678860
Reply to Olivier5 If atrocities were the issue no war could ever result in peace. But hey, don't let that stop you from emoting another useless contribution.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 12:07 #678862
Reply to Benkei The war itself is one big atrocity, so if atrocities are not the issue, there is no reason to stop the war. Logic anyone?
Christoffer April 07, 2022 at 12:10 #678863
Quoting Baden
No, the correct thing to do is address their arguments, which stand on their own merit.


Hasn't he done that as well? I understand when the fallacy is used as initial counters as ways to discredit before engagement, but if their arguments have been countered properly, and they just keep repeating the same things over and over without adjusting to the objections and counterarguments, sometimes directly quoting from the people in "that group", isn't questioning that rhetorical similarity part of pointing out the inability of proper discourse on their part?

I'm all against fallacies, but if countering their arguments just leads them to repeat themselves without ever engaging with those counterargument criticisms, then how do you show the problems with their arguments if they ignore such criticism? Using different examples, like how the rhetoric is similar to other people with clearer agendas can put such counterarguments in another perspective, in the hopes of the criticism getting clearer.

I just mean that if the arguments have been countered over and over, maybe the correct thing would be for them to comply with proper discourse before the one's criticizing their opinions get criticism for their attempts at getting through with that criticism?

I just think that the context of the players and behaviors in the current discourse warrants a rhetorical comparison like Oliver did without it being a fallacy. If he initiated his response to their argument with it, yes, but not after pages of him properly battling their ill-conceived arguments. With their allowed low-quality arguments, I think a different tactic is allowed since it might be the only way to show their opinions and arguments exist within a certain context of bias.

The example on that website is showing an initial response to a first argument, not that the Owl has been discussing the topic for hours or days before the Owl points out that the opponent continues to repeat themselves without taking into account the criticism laid forward and that this is the same kind of repetitious nonfactual behavior... as Dr Corrupt used.

I just think there's some context missing here.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 12:16 #678864
Reply to Christoffer Some of the missing context is indeed that I am tired of making careful arguments only to be ignored or insulted in return, including by petulant mods. There's something rotten in TPF.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 12:17 #678865
Reply to Olivier5 What's "the issue" Baden and I were talking about? Maybe try to read instead of trying to score cheap points by deliberately misrepresenting what I say.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 12:21 #678867
Reply to Benkei I said what I had to say. You may ignore it now.
Christoffer April 07, 2022 at 12:31 #678869
Quoting Olivier5
including by mods.


This I agree with. I think that a definition of being a mod is to at least keep a civil tone and argue for it. Baden does it, Benkei does not.

That's why I could never be a mod on a forum like this, I sometimes fail to keep a civil tone, but I at least try, even in the most stupid situations. But I wouldn't want to fail and have such authority doing so, it reflects badly on the entire community in my opinion. I simply don't think Benkei should be a mod. It becomes a problem when the authority is the one misbehaving so that any criticism of that behavior is filtered through the same person being criticized.

As I mentioned before, it feels like a role-play of authoritarianism.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 12:37 #678870
Quoting Christoffer
I simply don't think Benkei should be a mod.


Seconded, he has proved himself unworthy of it. @Baden was more civil but equally biased IMO. He is only looking for 'fallacies' on one side of the debate. There ought to be a fancy name for that fallacy...
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 12:46 #678872
Quoting Baden
I suspect you are Tucker Carlson, so the difference is moot.


Who does that leave as Taylor Greene? I think I got off lightly there.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 12:52 #678875
Quoting Christoffer
if the arguments have been countered over and over,


If we all agreed that the arguments had been countered over and over then we wouldn't still be arguing them would we? So you're just begging the question. Olivier's remarks are a guilt by association fallacy for those of us who don't agree that those arguments have been countered over and over. Those who agree those arguments have been countered over and over need no further encouragement to dismiss them.

So the only people @Olivier5's comments could possibly be aimed at are people who don't yet agree that those arguments have been countered over and over. Hence they are a guilt by association fallacy.

See how pedagogy is failing? I'll repeat again. Something seeming to you to be the case is not the same thing as something actually being the case.
Streetlight April 07, 2022 at 12:58 #678877
Brutal state oppression from authoritarian police regime:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/PplsCityCouncil/status/1511850256450740226[/tweet]

But I'm sure the American bootlickers can tell us all about the free speech of the West they like to slobber on about.

And of course it's quite easy to dissociate oneself from the American far right. Fuck America and everything that piece of shit country stands for. Ta da. Oh yes, and it's puppet institutions like NATO too.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 13:25 #678884
Reply to StreetlightX I liked this one too. [tweet]https://twitter.com/kennedytcooper/status/1511766508095090691?s=20&t=qqs-6hK4fl34phsi0JUZiQ[/tweet]
NOS4A2 April 07, 2022 at 13:38 #678885
The rouble is back to what it was before the invasion. Remember when Biden bragged and called it the “rubble”? Hilarious.
frank April 07, 2022 at 13:59 #678891
Quoting NOS4A2
The rouble is back to what it was before the invasion.


It's artificial though.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 14:01 #678894
Reply to Isaac All I am saying is that you guys seem to be parroting the US extreme right. That's objective and verifiable, it's not an opinion.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 14:07 #678896
Reply to Christoffer Ah, the tone police. Mind your manners or someone might be offended! I've been entirely civil, I've exactly called you an idiot once when you were trying to turn this into Idols where we were to choose between either shit or vomit, or the USA or Russia. "Who do you trust more with nukes?!"
frank April 07, 2022 at 14:10 #678897
Reply to Olivier5 The extreme right is the anti-status-quo bloc now. Unfortunately, they're as insane as they can possibly be about it.

They're splitting the GOP., and I guess they'll try to make a third party at some point.

That's good news for Democrats.
frank April 07, 2022 at 14:11 #678898
Quoting Benkei
Ah, the tone police.


It's more the sound of self-loathing, though. Maybe not you so much, but others.
NOS4A2 April 07, 2022 at 14:15 #678899
“ A video posted online on Monday and verified by The New York Times appears to show a group of Ukrainian soldiers killing captured Russian troops outside a village west of Kyiv.

“He’s still alive. Film these marauders. Look, he’s still alive. He’s gasping,” a man says as a Russian soldier with a jacket pulled over his head, apparently wounded, is seen still breathing. A soldier then shoots the man twice. After the man keeps moving, the soldier shoots him again, and he stops.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/06/world/ukraine-russia-war-news/russia-pows-ukraine-executed
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 14:16 #678900
Quoting frank
That's good news for Democrats.


Let's hope so.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 14:18 #678903
Reply to NOS4A2 Bound to happen of course as in any war. We can be shocked but not surprised. As I argued with respect to the atrocities committed by Russia: this is not what we should be focusing on as it doesn't contribute to any type of negotiation towards a ceasefire and eventually peace.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 14:20 #678904
Reply to frank Raising minimum wage to 19 dollars might do the trick and split the GOP for good. That way not just Democrats benefit but actual US citizens.
Baden April 07, 2022 at 14:21 #678905
Reply to Benkei

It's fair to contextualize the issue. Nothing we say here is going to contribute to a solution, merely analyse its possibility. And it's also fair to make moral arguments one way or the other. What I would be interested in is if anyone could tell me what they think is going to happen next because I consider my theory of a straightforward solution pretty much defunct now.



NOS4A2 April 07, 2022 at 14:28 #678908
Reply to Benkei

I’ve seen a lot of anti-Russian atrocity propaganda that I feel it important to show the other side of it. I am not in any position to negotiate ceasefires nor contribute to them, and don’t think anyone else here is, so I think we can focus on whatever we want.
Streetlight April 07, 2022 at 14:32 #678910
I have zero moral judgement about Ukrainians murdering, in whatever way they see fit, Russian aggressors.
frank April 07, 2022 at 14:35 #678912
Quoting Benkei
Raising minimum wage to 19 dollars might do the trick and split the GOP for good. That way not just Democrats benefit but actual US citizens.


There's a labor shortage right now, so that's happened organically.

Although inflation is high too, so it's hard day to day to get a handle on what's happening.

Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 14:35 #678913
Quoting Baden
What I would be interested in is if anyone could tell me what they think is going to happen next because I consider my theory of a straightforward solution pretty much defunct now.


I agree that a peace deal appears almost impossible now, in part because of the war crimes committed by the Russian army which the Ukrainians will find very hard to forgive, but also because the Russians will want a revenge from their recent defeat around Kiev. This war is not ending soon.
frank April 07, 2022 at 14:36 #678914
Quoting StreetlightX
I have zero moral judgement about Ukrainians murdering, in whatever way they see fit, Russian aggressors.


That's because you're fucking crazy.
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 14:39 #678915
Reply to Baden Hard to say. The separatist war has been going on for 8 years now as well. So maybe this will simmer down to a long-lasting low intensity conflict. The West will lose interest when Will Smith slaps another comedian. Or the Russians are regrouping and will push again and circumstances will change again. And as defunct your view might look this week, maybe it's totally relevant again in another two weeks.

Reply to NOS4A2 I wasn't arguing you shouldn't post it. I just think that focusing on whatever moral outrage this is supposed to garner in the West or wherever isn't what our governments should focus on. Imagine negotiations starting with both sides blaming and recounting all the war crimes they committed. That will quickly go nowhere. Indeed, I think we can comfortably assume more war crimes were and are being committed by Russia. But if so how should that factor in a ceasefire or a peace deal? I really think that for the immediate goals of ceasefires and peace, war crimes are irrelevant. Justice can wait; there are no statutory limitations on war crimes.
Streetlight April 07, 2022 at 14:43 #678917
Reply to frank True. It would be better for all the soldiers to murder their commanding officers instead, on all sides, all the way up the chain. The war would end tomorrow.

Thanks for reminding me about class consciousness, comrade.
frank April 07, 2022 at 14:49 #678920
Reply to StreetlightX :up: You're still crazy though.
Streetlight April 07, 2022 at 14:50 #678921
Reply to frank And you're still dull as rocks but that's OK.

But really who cares about Ukrainians killing Russians. If you're going to invade another country, expect to die. You signed up for it, literally.
frank April 07, 2022 at 15:12 #678929
Quoting StreetlightX
If you're going to invade another country, expect to die. You signed up for it, literally.


There just kids. If they surrender, you shouldn't kill them.
Streetlight April 07, 2022 at 15:15 #678931
Reply to frank They are soldiers who killed your friends and family, or - and this much is guaranteed - supported those killings. I'm not saying they should be killed. It'd probably be better if they weren't. I'm just not saying I care about anyone who thinks they should be, and acts on it.

Every solider who comes home in a coffin wrapped in a flag from some kind of overseas adventure is someone's else cause of rightful celebration. One country in particular likes those decorated boxes.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 15:19 #678933
Quoting Olivier5
All I am saying is that you guys seem to be parroting the US extreme right. That's objective and verifiable, it's not an opinion.


OK.

parrot
verb [ T ]
disapproving
uk
/?pær.?t/ us
/?per.?t/
to repeat exactly what someone else says, without understanding it or thinking about its meaning:


Verify it then...
ssu April 07, 2022 at 15:25 #678938
Quoting Benkei
Crimea was annexed because it contains Russian naval bases giving it access to the Mediterranean

No. That's patently false. You don't annex a whole peninsula just for a naval base and incorporate it to Russia.

You are simply ignorant about the history and the political situation in Crimea. But seems that doesn't matter to you at all.

Nikita Khrushchev gave the peninsula from the Russian Soviet Republic. The cession of Crimea was a “noble act on the part of the Russian people” to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the “reunification of Ukraine with Russia”. Since gaining the territory from the Ottomans in 1783, it had been part of Russia and hence the ethnic Russian population in the Peninsula (which increased thanks to the large naval base of Sevastopol). And right from the start during the Yeltsin years there has been a political agenda to get back Crimea from the now independent Ukraine. And also a vocal Russian movement to get Crimea back to mother Russia. Just to simply disregard all of this makes your conclusion false. Things aren't monocausal.

And then there's Putin himself:

Putin said he had no regrets.

“It’s not because Crimea has a strategic importance in the Black Sea region. It’s because this has elements of historical justice. I believe we did the right thing and I don’t regret anything,” the RIA news agency quoted Putin as saying in the documentary “The President”.


And how did Vladimir Putin then feel about Crimea being part of an Independent Ukraine. From his Crimea speech in 2014:

Now, many years later, I heard residents of Crimea say that back in 1991 they were handed over like a sack of potatoes. This is hard to disagree with. And what about the Russian state? What about Russia? It humbly accepted the situation. This country was going through such hard times then that realistically it was incapable of protecting its interests. However, the people could not reconcile themselves to this outrageous historical injustice. All these years, citizens and many public figures came back to this issue, saying that Crimea is historically Russian land and Sevastopol is a Russian city.


So Benkei, the idea that it's only a defensive move against NATO, only the importance of a naval base is patently false. You are just lying to yourself if you believe that this war wouldn't happen if only NATO wouldn't have enlarged itself.

Quoting Benkei
I don't think Putin's musings on the artificiality of Ukraine inform actual policy. Just as his waxing lyrical about the USSR doesn't. I see nothing in circumstances and facts that reinforce this as important.

So what leaders say doesn't matter.

What they say what their policies and objectives are doesn't matter.

Yeah, right.





Isaac April 07, 2022 at 15:45 #678943
Quoting ssu
What they say what their policies and objectives are doesn't matter.

Yeah, right.


Putin:over the past 30 years we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.

What I am saying now does not concerns only Russia, and Russia is not the only country that is worried about this. This has to do with the entire system of international relations, and sometimes even US allies.

Overall, it appears that nearly everywhere, in many regions of the world where the United States brought its law and order, this created bloody, non-healing wounds and the curse of international terrorism and extremism. I have only mentioned the most glaring but far from only examples of disregard for international law.

Despite all that, in December 2021, we made yet another attempt to reach agreement with the United States and its allies on the principles of European security and NATO’s non-expansion. Our efforts were in vain. The United States has not changed its position. It does not believe it necessary to agree with Russia on a matter that is critical for us. The United States is pursuing its own objectives, while neglecting our interests.

Focused on their own goals, the leading NATO countries are supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine, those who will never forgive the people of Crimea and Sevastopol for freely making a choice to reunite with Russia.

They will undoubtedly try to bring war to Crimea just as they have done in Donbass, to kill innocent people

In this context [all the above], in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia’s Federation Council, and in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.


You just ignore what leaders say when it doesn't suit your narrative and then expect people to listen to you quoting them when it does. It's become a joke.

If you want to be taken seriously, decide if the stated goals and objectives of leaders are relevant or not and stick to it. Otherwise there's no reason to even quote them.
frank April 07, 2022 at 15:45 #678944
Quoting StreetlightX
Every solider who comes home in a coffin wrapped in a flag from some kind of overseas adventure is someone's else cause of rightful celebration. One country in particular likes those decorated boxes.


Like I said, your psyche is a wasteland.
Streetlight April 07, 2022 at 15:48 #678945
Imagine shilling for state-sponsored professional murderers and telling me my psyche is a wasteland.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 15:59 #678947
Quoting Benkei
Hard to say. The separatist war has been going on for 8 years now as well. So maybe this will simmer down to a long-lasting low intensity conflict. The West will lose interest when Will Smith slaps another comedian. Or the Russians are regrouping and will push again and circumstances will change again. And as defunct your view might look this week, maybe it's totally relevant again in another two weeks.


This is my feeling too.

I think the Russian military strategy after the failure to seize Kiev unopposed, which certainly they would have done if there was no resistance, I think was driven by a fear of the potential for Ukraine to break the siege of Mariupol.

I've heard estimates of upwards of about 15 000 Ukrainian troops and 15 000 Azov battalion troops in Mariupol, so if the Ukrainians weren't stretched thin, I think it's definitely in the cards that the siege of Mariupol could have been broken; troops under siege, in particular Azov troops, would I think take pretty much any number of casualties in a chance to break out of Mariupol, and there were several attempts at least rumoured. Failing to break those troops out of Mariupol, Ukraine seems to have sent over 5 helicopters (five seem to have got shot down but seems at least some got through) to evacuate key people.

It was essentially same day as Mariupol effectively fell (centre taken and remaining Ukraine an Azov troops separated into different pockets) that Russia pulled out from around Kiev.

Which, sure, isn't a "good look" for Russia and definitely they would have just stayed there if they weren't taking losses, but if the siege of Mariupol was broken that would be a far greater strategic disaster and embarrassment.

I think it was an opportunity for a diplomatic resolution as well, Russia pulling out, but that chance I think is gone with the new narrative that Russia has committed war crimes in Bucha without any sort of investigation at all, and seems the UK is denying Russia's request to have an investigation.

We're moving now towards another state of permanent warfare like the last 8 years, just I wouldn't call it low intensity in the same sense as the previous Dombas line, I don't think it will be comparable, but certainly lower intensity than the last few weeks.
ssu April 07, 2022 at 16:03 #678950
Quoting Baden
What I would be interested in is if anyone could tell me what they think is going to happen next because I consider my theory of a straightforward solution pretty much defunct now.

I agree with you on that. The most probable outcome is a lengthened war. (Which I guess some people will argue has been the objective of the US right from the start)

It's going to be a lot worse.

It will take at least a month to rearm, resupply those battered Russian forces that now have been withdrawn from the Kyiv front. And even then it's doubtful they can rapidly crush Ukrainian resistance. For Zelensky the atrocities just have hardened the determination of Ukrainians to fight (as usually happens) as does the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv. Likely they aren't in the mood of compromise. Yet the Ukrainians cannot go on the offensive and try to destroy the Russian army. They simply don't have the material and huge offensives are extremely risky. Likely the military situation for Ukraine isn't on the verge of collapse that the Ukrainian military would urge Zelensky to make peace. Putin on the other hand cannot eat his words, so without at least conquering the Donbas region in full the Russians won't stop. And let's remember that Putin has basically won all of his wars until no, so likely he's not going throw in the towel quickly.

And as time goes, then the West can train Ukrainians to use new Western weapon systems and get that SAM cover to reinforce the already disputed Air War, the much elaborated "no fly -zone".

ssu April 07, 2022 at 16:10 #678951
Quoting Isaac
If you want to be taken seriously, decide if the stated goals and objectives of leaders is relevant or not and stick to it.

If you want to give a serious counterargument, how about actually engaging in what I say and not a strawman?

In short: My point is that Putin invaded Ukraine because of a) wanting to make Russia great again, b) because of NATO enlargement and c) the danger of an Ukrainian "Color Revolution" being so successful that it would give a bad example to the Russian people.

What the hell is wrong with things having multiple causes?

Why the incessant urge to denounce every other reason but NATO enlargement as the cause for this war?
Manuel April 07, 2022 at 16:16 #678952
I don't think anybody really knows what's going to happen next. We hear reports that Russia is re-grouping to the eastern parts of Ukraine, so they can focus on those areas. Others say they think Russia is regrouping to launch another assault on Kiev.

Meanwhile, more and more sanctions are being dished out. What the hell's left to sanction? Only gas and oil for the Europeans. If they do sanction that, then Russia will barely have any income left.

The question is, will they mind losing more soldiers for no discernable reason?

Now the Pentagon is saying Ukraine could "win" this war. I think that's highly unlikely, but, they are defending themselves rather well. But as to the future of this, we don't have a clue at the moment.
ssu April 07, 2022 at 16:17 #678954
Quoting boethius
I've heard estimates of upwards of about 15 000 Ukrainian troops and 15 000 Azov battalion troops in Mariupol,

Heard where?

30 000 troops? That's far larger than a division. That is an Army Corps.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 16:32 #678961
Quoting ssu
30 000 troops? That's far larger than a division. That is an Army Corps.


I was surprised too, but I think I heard mention by Defense Politics Asia channel, and the number is impossible to verify (which the channel mentions and discusses a bit credible ranges of numbers).

However, there was a large retreat into the city from different directions, and the previous defence line was heavily built up and linked up with the current Dombas line.

Additionally, then they are held up in a large city so can recruit civilians and grow their numbers.

So maybe it is credible as the home of Azov and also 1/4th of the 60 000 Ukrainian soldiers said to be manning the Dombas line before the war started wind up in Mariupol, in addition to recruiting. For Azov I generally hear numbers between 30 and 60 thousand members, so 15 thousand doesn't seem unreasonable to be in and around their base at the start of the war.

However, whatever the true number, they put off stiff and well armed resistance so I think their strength was significant and would therefore significantly aid any approaching manoeuvre to break them out.

In any event, it's certainly not a coincidence that the Kiev retreat happened right after successful infiltration of Mariupol and pocketing the remaining Ukrainian and Azov troops, and also signs the battle is over such as acts of desperation like helicopter rescue.

Not only is the force certainly degraded in man power and ammunition due to the month of fighting without resupply, but pocketing the remaining troops severely limits their ability to coordinate any breakout manoeuvre, in addition to lines being fortified this whole month North of Mariupol.

Mariupol falling completely will also free up the Russian troops tied up there.

Azov breaking out would not just be a strategic military embarrassment for Russia, but a significant symbolic defeat and embarrassment and "Azov victory", so I do understand a strategy that minimised the chance of that happening.

The other strictly military purpose of the Kiev salients, I would say is shelling Kiev military industry, which, at least the Ukrainian defence minister, reported as essentially completely destroyed.

There's also significant symbolic and propaganda value of taking Mariupol (capturing Nazi houses, like the right sector leader, and capturing actual Nazi's and also interviews with surviving locals that blame the Ukrainians for shelling them or fighting near their homes and not providing them any assistance). So this symbolic and propaganda victory in Mariupol also compensates a great deal retreating from Kiev (which, even if it served a purpose, is still a retreat).

Though I don't see Russia "losing" the war militarily, public support is the critical thing for them just as it is for Ukraine.
FreeEmotion April 07, 2022 at 17:08 #678971
Quoting Olivier5
?Benkei The war itself is one big atrocity, so if atrocities are not the issue, there is no reason to stop the war. Logic anyone?


I agree, the war itself, any war, is a sort of atrocity. It is a macabre twist of civilized conduct to have conventions for the conduct of war, the Geneva conventions, which are useful but somewhat like having rules for breaking into stores and looting the contents.

In war, there are bound to be incidents of atrocities - indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas, killing prisoners and so on. The best thing to prevent this is not to go to war, but prevention is seen as some sort of moral atrocity: 'giving in to slavery etc'.

When the fated atrocities happen, the other side will then use them for propaganda (by the way, how do we know the photographs are of dead civilians? How do we know they are dead? ) Anyway, the way things work, highlighting civilian deaths is a useful tool because people will react emotionally.

The effect of the civilian atrocity videos on people including in this forum shows how they can have an effect: I am not impressed by them except to realize that there are worse deaths and injuries out there - just read the accounts of the civilian deaths in world war II and you will get an idea - but those do not have the same impact because they are expected. So it has to be civilians shot on the streets, unimaginative, but effective. I assume all of them to be fake - all of them, not because they are, but because I have no way of verifying anything.

If I was in the filthy business of conducting a war, one of the first things I would do is prepare some fake atrocity videos beforehand to be released at the correct time. I would pay good money to enemy combatants to play the part: I will not do this, but for the cunning who have no heart the possibilities are endless.

Anyone interested in reading a piece on the Geneva Conventions: https://academic.oup.com/ejil/article/28/2/483/3933334?login=false
boethius April 07, 2022 at 17:46 #678986
Quoting Olivier5
Isn't it a bit too late for your advice? What difference does it make now, what Zelenskyy did or didn't do to change the Ukrainian constitution before the war?


It's obviously relevant that one of the main reasons for fighting and not making peace with Russia, and one major galvanization of Ukrainian and Western public opinion behind Ukraine was the "right to join NATO" which Zelenskyy was already told by NATO would never happen.

It's relevant to know things are setup by parties within Ukraine to frustrate peace making.

It's a pretty big lie, and so it's reasonable to suspect other big claims by Ukraine to also be lies; certainly not take them at face value if Zelenskyy is able to lie for weeks about a reason for fighting is to join NATO. For example, reasonable to suspect the claim, without even an investigation being conducted of any kind, of atrocities in Bucha being Russian war crimes, is maybe a lie too.

It also is pause for thought of whether Zelenskyy is even in control or then parties that change the constitution to frustrate peace making and therefore want to promote war. There's no statecraft reason to put in the constitution the aspiration to join NATO, it makes no sense except to hold one's population hostage in the hopes of forcing a NATO-Russia direct conflict.

Finally, seeing these sorts of lies and simply political incompetence (admitted to by Zelenskyy) ... and incompetence due to not taking this answer from NATO into account to begin with but then incompetence of just saying he knew all along in a CNN interview, may call into question the whole project of taking everything Zelenskyy says at face value and continuing the "scrutiny protection shield" that the Western media has created for him.

For, if he isn't "pure" and is capable of lying, either for his own purposes or then due to pressure from behind the scenes parties, and if his decisions aren't ordained by god to be good ones, then making scrutiny of Zelenskyy's claims "taboo" (for example kicking off twitter Scott Ritter, a ex-Marine and ex-UN weapons inspector, because he pointed out there's zero credible investigation and so basis to make any criminal accusations whatsoever, and evidence exists that even points to the executions, of white arm band wearing nominal Russian friendlies, being carried out by Ukrainians in a purge, they seem to have stated they would carry out, of collaborators), regardless of the "real truth" of any claim, it creates a moral hazard.

If Zelenskyy knows the Western media and social media corporations will simply buy whatever he says, then he has very little motivation to even look into or reflect on whether what he's saying is true, but a very high motivation to simply say whatever would be convenient to be true.

Western nations, media and social media corporations, simply taking everything he says on face value and placing automatically their seals of approval on it, creates the moral hazard of then not wanting an investigation to happen as it only risks exonerating, to a small or large extent, the Russians and demonstrating facts presented as 100% are in fact not 100%.

Western governments, in particular, buying into claims that may turn out later to be false, creates all sorts of incentives to prefer the war continuing so there is never a resolution and no investigations can ever credibly happen, and the news cycle simply refreshes the material of outrage with equally ambiguous claims so that no claims ever get credibly investigated, eventually everyone accepting that accusing the other side is just part of winning the "information war" and the truth doesn't matter in the slightest.

The truth not mattering in the slightest does not give justice to victims, whoever the perpetrators of the particular crime, and also makes a peace deal nearly impossible.

To make it very concrete, things seemed moving towards a peace deal before the Bucha images.

Now, had the West said that there needs to be an investigation, real substantive evidence before jumping to conclusions and a trial is actually needed to convict anyone of anything, had that signal been quick and strong that actual proof is needed to make a criminal conviction, then likely Zelenskyy would have backed off the claims himself, and the West not automatically believing whatever Ukraine says in their "information war" (the director of the CIA assures us Ukraine is winning) would place immense pressure on Zelenskyy to first bother to see what the truth may actually be, and motivate a peace deal (perhaps significant pressure to arrive at a peace deal if he gets the signal Western backing is not unconditional and there is risk an investigation will reveal the executions were Ukrainian Nazi's purging collaborators as they said they would do), and, in any event, sticking to the principle that criminal convictions need trials which need evidence and impartial investigators doesn't frustrate a peace deal.

However, simply repeating without any critical scrutiny whatsoever Ukrainian claims about Bucha certainly destroyed any chance of a peace deal following Russia withdrawal from North Ukraine, but may even, in itself, lead to a permanent state of war if Ukraine and Western backers now fear peace could lead to actual investigations (independent journalists, neutral countries, UN process etc.) not only casting doubt on accusations already 100% committed to but may even reveal evidence it was Ukrainian propaganda, whether staged or executing "collaborators".

So, lies matter a great deal.

What about Putin's lies? I don't see anyone in the West taking anything Putin says at face value.

We have not setup some moral hazard at the highest institutional level of Western governments of just believing whatever Putin says because he says it. Indeed, the opposite moral hazard has been creating of being able to just assume, with equally zero scrutiny, whatever Putin says that is inconvenient if true, to be a lie.

The ground work for these moral hazards laid by calling Putin literally Hitler for weeks if not years, and so at some point that claim starts to ring hollow without the "atrocities" to go with it.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 17:51 #678989
And why was Scott Ritter banned from Twitter?

Just asking common sense questions and pointing out evidence is needed to actually answer common sense questions, which you may actually want answered before using the jump to conclusions mat.

Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 18:09 #678995
Quoting boethius
It's obviously relevant that one of the main reasons for fighting and not making peace with Russia, and one major galvanization of Ukrainian and Western public opinion behind Ukraine was the "right to join NATO" which Zelenskyy was already told by NATO would never happen.


Your post is very unclear. Try and write less but clearer.

Are you now talking of the present situation, or of the pre-war situation? Pre-war, Zelenskyy might legitimely have had other priorities than changing the constitution. Post-war (or during the war) the situation is very different. Now Zelenskyy has been told that NATO membership is not an option, and is under pressure from the Russians to drop the idea altogether. And he is ready to do so so what's your beef?

More generally, why the agressive stance towards Zelenskyy? He's doing well, the best he can. If one has to be a political realist and accept Putin as a player, as you have argued, what's the point of bitching endlessly about the other guy, Zelenskyy? Are you paid for badmouthing him, or what?
boethius April 07, 2022 at 18:24 #678998
Quoting Olivier5
Your post is very unclear. Try and write less but clearer.


Maybe it's perfectly clear but cause for pause for thought as I mention, and thus cognitive dissonance if one does not wish to pause to think about anything.

Quoting Olivier5
Pre-war, Zelenskyy might legitimely have had other priorities than changing the constitution.


The key point is not what plans Zelenskyy may have had.

The key point is telling the Ukrainian people to fight for the right to join NATO, make belief that NATO is coming if they fight hard enough and distribute small arms to civilians making them military targets, and so on.

Had Zelenskyy simply not mentioned joining NATO as a reason to fight, and came out with now that NATO told him that Ukraine would never join, ok, maybe we can give the benefit of the doubt that Zelenskyy worked with that information in some plausibly competent way, and, more importantly, he wouldn't have been lying about joining NATO, and fighting to join NATO, and constantly making speeches and demanding to join NATO and NATO direct intervention etc. for cause to fight rather than sue for peace in the first low-intensity week of the war.

Quoting Olivier5
More generally, why the agressive stance towards Zelenskyy?


Critical scrutiny is not "aggressive". Why the "aggressive" attitude towards Putin?

Quoting Olivier5
He's doing well, the best he can.


Lying about the reasons to fight and die are not "doing the best you can".

You are, in this claim, engaged in precisely the framework of assuming Zelenskyy has just cause, that fighting to the last Ukrainian is just cause, and whatever Zelenskyy needs to say to get arms and keep Ukrainians fighting and dying is just and beyond criticism because what needs to happen is Ukrainians fighting and dying, regardless of the outcome for Ukraine.

Quoting Olivier5
If one has to be a political realist and accept Putin as a player, as you have argued, what's the point of bitching endlessly about the other guy, Zelenskyy?


Accept Putin as a player?

One must accept the war is happening.

As I've said, if there's a military solution for Ukraine, then they need not sue for peace and you need not try to understand different perspectives for the purposes of a diplomatic resolution. And I've said many times that surprises happen in warfare all the time and maybe Ukraine will have some great victory and march on Moscow and write the history of it at their leisure.

However, if a peace deal is the only resolution of the war available to Ukrainians, then understanding the opposing perspectives is required to find a peaceful resolution.

We get the Ukrainian perspective, and not simply the perspective but the repetition of all their claims as factual in the Western media, if it was the reverse and the Western media just agreed with everything Putin said, then I'd try my best to present the Ukrainian perspective for the purposes of diplomacy and peace making.
Punshhh April 07, 2022 at 18:28 #678999
Reply to frank
That's because you're fucking crazy.


Just looked at your avatar, now that is crazy.

(One of my favourite films)
Benkei April 07, 2022 at 18:37 #679002
Reply to ssu It's funny how you just assume I don't know all these things already. You left out the consideration that a successful resolution by a people of whom 50% of their relatives are Russian might cause problems in Russia for Putin as well, which is why it was also important for him to intervene. (I see you mention it later after I started typing this). But that seems like the only other reasonable strategic goal. And that revolution wouldn't be a thing if not for the meddling of the US in Ukraine to begin with.

But let's look at the artificiality and USSR our Russian empire claims. When did he make them and who was he addressing?

When he talks about "historical justice" and denies the strategic value of Crimea, who is he talking to? How likely is it for Putin to commit war efforts that inevitably will incur sanctions for a non-strategic goal? This from the guy who climbed from basically nothing to the President of Russia. We are now to believe he turned into an idiot?

The one consistent issue repeated and recognised for 3 decades: NATO expansion.

All the demands on the table from Russia before this war started were about: NATO expansion.

This war would not have happened but for: NATO expansion.

Other motives and strategic goals were ancillary at best.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 18:39 #679003
Quoting ssu
What the hell is wrong with things having multiple causes?

Why the incessant urge to denounce every other reason but NATO enlargement as the cause for this war?


Where have I denounced those other reasons? Quote me, don't just assign views to me you find convenient.
Isaac April 07, 2022 at 18:48 #679006
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-using-declassified-intel-fight-info-war-russia-even-intel-isnt-rock-rcna23014

“It doesn’t have to be solid intelligence,” one U.S. official said. “It’s more important to get out ahead of them [the Russians], Putin specifically, before they do something."


Multiple U.S. officials acknowledged that the U.S. has used information as a weapon even when confidence in the accuracy of the information wasn’t high. Sometimes it has used low-confidence intelligence for deterrent effect, as with chemical agents, and other times, as an official put it, the U.S. is just “trying to get inside Putin’s head.”


In another disclosure, U.S. officials said one reason not to provide Ukraine with MiG fighter jets is that intelligence showed Russia would view the move as escalatory.

That was true, but it was also true of Stinger missiles, which the Biden administration did provide, two U.S. officials said, adding that the administration declassified the MiG information to bolster the argument not to provide them to Ukraine.


And most shockingly...

It was an attention-grabbing assertion that made headlines around the world: U.S. officials said they had indications suggesting Russia might be preparing to use chemical agents in Ukraine.

President Joe Biden later said it publicly. But three U.S. officials told NBC News this week there is no evidence Russia has brought any chemical weapons near Ukraine. They said the U.S. released the information to deter Russia from using the banned munitions.


...But sure, we can completely trust the information western media sources report. It's not at all a load of propagandist bullshit.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 18:50 #679008
Quoting boethius
Maybe it's perfectly clear


To you, certainly it is. But not to me.

Quoting boethius
Lying about the reasons to fight and die are not "doing the best you can".


What lie are you talking about, oh confused one?

Quoting boethius
Had Zelenskyy simply not mentioned joining NATO as a reason to fight,


That's a lie. Ukraine is fighting to defend herself, not for the right to enter NATO.

Quoting boethius
Why the "aggressive" attitude towards Putin?


Mr Putin decided to start a pretty atrocious war and threatened the world with nuclear Armageddon, if you remember.

Quoting boethius
However, if a peace deal is the only resolution of the war available to Ukrainians, then understanding the opposing perspectives is required to find a peaceful resolution.


Likewise, if a peace deal is the only resolution of the war available to Russians, then understanding the Ukrainian perspective is required to find a peaceful resolution. Tell that to your masters.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 19:26 #679017
Quoting Olivier5
To you, certainly it is. But not to me.


Yeah... key word maybe. As in "Maybe it's perfectly clear".

Quoting Olivier5
What lie are you talking about, oh confused one?


Zelenskyy pretending to not have been told NATO would never let Ukraine in, but advocating to join NATO and making social media stunts for the purposes of joining NATO etc. is one of those "the big lie" as a rational to fight the Russians.

Quoting Olivier5
That's a lie. Ukraine is fighting to defend herself, not for the right to enter NATO.


One of the big reasons for the first week, and evening continuing after, was "the right to join NATO". Repeated by Zelenskyy and the whole reason to make Ukrainian civilians legitimate military targets was that it would be further reason to join NATO. You may have a short memory, but "Ukraine has a right to join NATO" was not only a reason to fight, but also a reason to refuse Russia's peace terms ... but if it turns out Zelenskyy already was told by NATO that Ukraine would never join NATO than it's simply lying to motivate Ukrainians to fight and also motivate Ukrainians and other politicians (which do exist in Ukraine) to accept refusing Russia's peace terms, and it was echoed all over Western and social media, so was a big meme of the time.

Quoting Olivier5
Mr Putin decided to start a pretty atrocious war and threatened the world with nuclear Armageddon, if you remember.


So did Zelenskyy. And, keep in mind, the war that could start WWIII has been simmering since 2014 after Ukraine refused to give Crimea and Dombas regions the right to self determination and right to not join NATO, in the name of their right to self determination to join NATO. A war continued by Zelenskyy.

Quoting Olivier5
Likewise, if a peace deal is the only resolution of the war available to Russians, then understanding the Ukrainian perspective is required to find a peaceful resolution. Tell that to your masters.


I'm pretty they can get the Ukrainian perspective anytime of the day or night by turning on CNN.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 19:43 #679022
Quoting boethius
Zelenskyy pretending to not have been told NATO would never let Ukraine in, but advocating to join NATO and making social media stunts for the purposes of joining NATO etc. is one of those "the big lie" as a rational to fight the Russians.


What evidence is there that Zelenskyy was told about that before the war? At what occasion did NATO tell him?

Quoting boethius
You may have a short memory, but "Ukraine has a right to join NATO" was not only a reason to fight, but also a reason to refuse Russia's peace terms



Refresh my memory and present evidence of that, oh noble liar for the Great Bare-chested One.

Quoting boethius
they can get the Ukrainian perspective anytime of the day or night by turning on CNN.


CNN is just hogwash and clickbait, most of times. At best they are facile. You can do better than that in understanding the Ukrainian perspective.

Quoting boethius
So did Zelenskyy.


That's a lie again. Mr Zelenskyy started no war.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 20:05 #679028
Quoting Olivier5
What evidence is there that Zelenskyy was told about that before the war? At what occasion did NATO tell him?


He literally said this on live television in a CNN interview, after making final desperate arguments to join NATO.

Quoting CNN

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that if his country had been admitted into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance earlier, then Russia would not have invaded the country.

“If we were a NATO member, a war wouldn't have started. I'd like to receive security guarantees for my country, for my people,” Zelensky told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on “GPS,” adding that he was grateful for the aid NATO has provided since the invasion began. “If NATO members are ready to see us in the alliance, then do it immediately because people are dying on a daily basis.”

He continued, “But if you are not ready to preserve the lives of our people, if you just want to see us straddle two worlds, if you want to see us in this dubious position where we don't understand whether you can accept us or not — you cannot place us in this situation, you cannot force us to be in this limbo.”
"I requested them personally to say directly that we are going to accept you into NATO in a year or two or five, just say it directly and clearly, or just say no," Zelensky said. "And the response was very clear, you're not going to be a NATO member, but publicly, the doors will remain open," he said.


Yet on February 14's, Zelenskyy made a speech still arguing and requesting to join NATO.



Quoting Olivier5
Refresh my memory and present evidence of that, oh noble liar for the great One.


I do not believe in the just cause justifying lying about the reasons for the just cause in the first place.

I suppose some lying is required to do covert actions, and undercover police work, and I suppose there's other morally arguable situations for lying, but I do not support lying about the reasons for war in the first place or the reasons to reject peace in order to manipulate one's citizens and other politicians into supporting more war.

Quoting Olivier5
That's a lie again. Mr Zelenskyy started no war.


I said he continued the war that Ukraine started by refusing to accept Crimea and Dombas right to self determination. Sure, you can say Ukraine attacked the Dombas because they have no right to self determination, and it was "legal", but that's still starting a war about the issue, a war that would simmer and lead to this larger war and increased risk of WWIII, not just due to escalation of this war but permanent higher risk due to the new cold war.



Is an interesting documentary about the war in the Dombas region made in 2016.

I watched it yesterday ... but it seems I'm not allowed to watch it today. (At least for me it has a button "I understand and wish to proceed" but then nothing happens if I click said button. https://youtu.be/RUP6B_GYMmA link plays.)
RogueAI April 07, 2022 at 20:09 #679029
Quoting boethius
I said he continued the war that Ukraine started by refusing to accept Crimea and Dombas right to self determination.


If you think about it hard enough Russia is the real victim here! Do you ever stop and listen to yourself?
boethius April 07, 2022 at 20:10 #679030
Quoting RogueAI
If you think about it hard enough Russia is the real victim here!


Dombas isn't Russia and currently not even Russian.

You can say you started a war for legal, even moral, reasons, such as to crush a breakaway region for the glory of Ukraine.

It's still starting a war.
frank April 07, 2022 at 20:16 #679032
Quoting Punshhh
Just looked at your avatar, now that is crazy.


Yes. Gotta keep that under wraps and pass for normal.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 20:17 #679033
Reply to frank

Total agreement once again.
frank April 07, 2022 at 20:20 #679035
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 20:22 #679036
Quoting boethius
He literally said this on live television in a CNN interview ....

CNN;https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-20-22/h_7c08d64201fdd9d3a141e63e606a62e4:
"I requested them personally to say directly that we are going to accept you into NATO in a year or two or five, just say it directly and clearly, or just say no," Zelensky said. "And the response was very clear, you're not going to be a NATO member, but publicly, the doors will remain open," he said.



But that quote is dated a week after the start of the war. Before the war, he was never told that.

Quoting boethius
I said he continued the war that Ukraine started by refusing to accept Crimea and Dombas right to self determination.


Okay so you lied implying that Zelenskyy had started an atrocious war and threatened the world with nuclear Armageddon. Just like Putin did.

And Zelenskyy is the one asking for a transparent popular vote in Crimea and Dombas (?). Don't assume all the people in these places want to live in a mini-putinistan. Maybe they prefer to live in a democracy, who knows?
boethius April 07, 2022 at 20:29 #679037
Quoting Olivier5
But that quote is dated a week after the start of the war. Before the war, he was never told that.


My interpretation was that he was told before the war, and apart of his reasons for becoming more cold on NATO for a while.

Considering Chancellor Olaf Scholz went to Zelenskyy before the war to try to convince him to give up NATO aspirations and take a deal backed by Putin and Biden, it seems to me exceedingly likely that he was informed then and also before that he would not be joining NATO.

Which if NATO told him, it's not so duplicitous (not leading him on as it appeared originally), and just basic diplomacy. NATO coming out and publicly shutting the door would be humiliating, so they're saying the big boy words in private, that Zelenskyy needs to deal with.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 20:39 #679039
Quoting Olivier5
On the contrary, he is the one asking for a transparent popular vote in Crimea.


If you have a right to self determination, don't you have a right to carry out votes as you please?

Why would it matter what Zelenskyy thinks of how Crimea votes.

Point in all that is that legalistic reasoning to justify war cuts both ways, and will never resolve the war.

If Ukraine can use it's right to self determination to justify attacking the Dombas region, the Dombas region can use it's right to self determination to reject Ukraine's right to self determination and to ask Russia to intervene on it's behalf, just as Ukraine has the right to ask NATO to intervene on its behalf.

I am not arguing that "Russia is right". I'm arguing that these kinds of arguments will never resolve.

Legal arguments get resolved because a judge makes it so and a state enforces the judges opinion. Left to themselves, lawyers would never reach some sort of consensus about pretty much any acrimonious dispute but would keep arguing about it until the end of time.

If there is no judge and no state that will "provide justice" then the only alternative is trial by combat (aka. war) or then to talk it out. That is the purpose of such arguments.

The other purpose is to point out that diplomacy and statecraft is required to avoid unnecessary suffering even if immense suffering is unavoidable with our current nation state system.

I do not like the state and I do not view it as a natural organ of human organisation and is so dangerous, but insofar as states exist, precisely because it is so dangerous, I much the state be in competent hands who at least understand statecraft, just as I don't like nuclear weapons but, insofar as they are around, I much prefer them to be in the hands of competent officers who understand their craft of command and control and practice it honorably and care for them, precisely because they are so horrifyingly dangerous.

In short, in my view we are as much morally obliged to be repulsed and horrified by the state as we are morally obliged to care for it.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 20:53 #679043
Reply to boethius Okay so you don't exactly know when he was told but it was after or soon before the start of the war.

So my case is strengthened: it was not a priority for him to change the constitution before the war. He had no good reason to do so.

But your personal bias against the democratically elected leader of a nation invaded by a criminal and militaristic autocracy is sadly noted.
Apollodorus April 07, 2022 at 20:59 #679046
Reply to Olivier5

Well, of course economies are interdependent. But I don’t think derivatives are that negligible at all:

The full interest rate derivatives market in the euro area is very large in terms of both volume and the number of instruments it contains. As of June 2019 the total outstanding notional amount in interest rate derivatives was around €200 trillion, which accounted for two-thirds of the total euro area derivatives market.


Derivatives transactions data and their use in central bank analysis – European Central Bank

Plus, I only gave that as an example. On top of that comes investment, credit, other financial services, etc.

In 2020:
US investments in Europe amounted to about 3.66 trillion USD.
EU service imports from US: 246.7bn EUR
EU service exports to US: 171.4bn EUR (EU Balance: -75.3bn EUR)

The US dominates the global stock market
The US dominates capital markets and financial services
The US dominates international financial institutions like the World Bank

The top ten investment banks globally are: 5 US, 2 UK, 2 France, 1 Switzerland

The US dollar is the dominant global currency

The international gold price is set by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) which is dominated by US and UK banks like Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Standard Chartered, HSBC, etc.

The Global Financial Centers Index (GFCI) 2022 has the following ranking:

1. New York
2. London
11. Paris
16. Frankfurt
19. Amsterdam
27. Luxembourg
36. Brussels
43. Dublin
49. Helsinki

GFCI 31 Rank - Long Finance

On the whole, I for one don’t see the EU as the dominant partner. But others are free to see it differently if they so choose ….
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 21:04 #679048
Reply to Apollodorus The EU is a project. It's not finished yet.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 21:06 #679050
Quoting boethius
If you have a right to self determination, don't you have a right to carry out votes as you please?


In theory, that's precisely what it implies and requires: a vote. How do you know what people self-determine without a referendum?
boethius April 07, 2022 at 21:16 #679055
Quoting Olivier5
In theory, that's precisely what it implies and requires: a vote.


So ... in theory, if I call for better more transparent voting the US, Ukraine or anywhere, that removes the right to self determination?

Why can't Crimea decide how it will vote and "self determine" what a vote? If you say it's not valid due to Russian influence, why can't Crimea decide to be influenced by Russia?

There is no world government that decides what is and is not a legitimate democratic vote ... and the right to self determination can include swearing an oath to a king.

It's a pretty vague concept without any clear meaning to begin with. It sounds good "self determination" but there is no agreed global governing framework to implement it ... and indeed "self determination" is intrinsically in conflict with the very idea of a global government to give it legally precise meaning of exactly who get's to self determine themselves anything and how.

Ukraine invoked it in it's argument to join NATO ... Crimea and Dombas can invoke it in their argument to join Russia.

It's another legal concept that sounds good to say, everyone likes to say it so usually is fine with other people saying it ... until the moment your right to self determination conflicts with mine then your right isn't a "real right" for some random reason, is how this "right" plays out in the real world. Pretty much every nation invokes it's right to self determination while denying the very same right to any of its components.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 21:25 #679058
Quoting Olivier5
Okay so you dot exactly know when he was told but it was after or soon before the start of the war.


The way he expresses that he asked NATO if they could join in 2 years of 5 years, or then just say no, makes no sense in the context of an ongoing war, which, a few sentences before he makes clear his desire to join NATO tomorrow. It makes zero sense the idea that just a week before he asked NATO if Ukraine could join in 2 years or 5 years while the war was ongoing.

We know he was offered a peace deal, that both Russia, US and the EU would back.

A peace deal he rejected. You agree his hands weren't tied. It's clear Ukraine isn't joining NATO ... so the result after the war will be exactly the peace deal offered before the war (but with more concessions and death) which is Ukraine not in NATO.

It's also clear that his only strategy was to get NATO involved in the war, he spends considerable effort on joining NATO, even after the war starts, using every social media stunt possible including handing out small arms to civilians, and then spends considerable amount of time on requesting a no-fly zone.

He is responsible for his decisions and the outcome.

Quoting Olivier5
So my case is strengthened: it was not a priority for him to change the constitution before the war. He had no good reason to do so.


Case strengthened how?

It's also just common sense that Ukraine won't be joining NATO, so he'd be responsible to understand that anyways (even if NATO was leading him on, which we now know wasn't the case, if he wants to be president of a country he should know anyways these common sense things).

Likewise, if the constitution wasn't his priority because peace wasn't his priority and he prefers a war with Russia and that was his priority. Mission accomplished.

Quoting Olivier5
But you personal bias against the democratically elected leader of a nation invaded by a militaristic autocracy is noted.


Correction: democratically elected and self determined militaristic autocracy.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 21:27 #679061
Quoting boethius
Why can't Crimea decide how it will vote and "self determine" what a vote? If you say it's not valid due to Russian influence, why can't Crimea decide to be influenced by Russia?


How would you figure out what they want without asking them?
Apollodorus April 07, 2022 at 21:30 #679062
Quoting Olivier5
But your personal bias against the democratically elected leader of a nation invaded by a criminal and militaristic autocracy is sadly noted.


But what if the "democratically elected leader" is a clown and a crook? His approval ratings were down to 30% before the invasion. So, something wasn't right somewhere. Now he has seized control of the media, has banned opposition parties, and has placed the country under martial law.

Plus, some may argue that the US government was autocratic and militaristic. Would you advocate for the land to be returned to the natives?

Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 21:43 #679076
Reply to Apollodorus Mr Zelenskyy might be a clown but he is a good one. Servant of the People is really funny. THAT -- and not CNN as suggested by @boethius, the mage who came from the cold -- is what Mr Putin should watch if he wants to understand better the mindset of his opponent. And I doubt he is a crook yet. Not as much as the other guy.
boethius April 07, 2022 at 21:43 #679077
Quoting Olivier5
How would you figure out what they want without asking them?


That's the whole idea of self-determination: none of my business to figure out anything. I have no "right" about it.

I am not part of their "self" and therefore have no right to determine anything in contradiction to their right to self determination.

And if Ukrainian state has a right that's more important than Crimea or Dombas right to self determination because they were part of the Ukrainian state before ... then it follows Russia can assert the same "more important right" over the whole of Ukraine because Ukraine was part of Russia before.

The legal arguments don't go anywhere as rights are too vague and too many people have them to determine anything, without a judge and a state to decide who's rights, of all the competing claims and rights in contradiction, will prevail in a given circumstance.

If you create some doctrine that a state has a right to recover a breakaway region, obviously that doctrine will be tailored to your predetermined objectives of what breakaway regions you think a given state should recover and which breakaway regions ... we don't talk about that here: a la Ukrainians can fight for their land, by American natives have no right to fight for their land, or any other native population, or the British to recover the breakaway region of the United States and so on. "Rights" of these kinds don't matter in determining international relations: but, rather, who's won what wars and who can win what war.
Olivier5 April 07, 2022 at 21:44 #679079
Quoting boethius
That's the whole idea of self-determination: none of my business to figure out anything. I have no "right" about it.


Self-determination means nothing to you then? You have no criteria for it, no way to ascertain it?
frank April 07, 2022 at 23:05 #679126
Reply to Olivier5
Isn't Zelensky the reason this is still going on?

If he would have left the country, Ukraine would be part of Russia now, right?

FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 02:07 #679206
Quoting boethius
I said he continued the war that Ukraine started by refusing to accept Crimea and Dombas right to self determination.


Didn't the war start because of the 2014 coup in Ukraine, and if Russia had somehow prevented the coup from taking place, then it would have avoided war?

Wikipedia:On 21 February 2014, Yanukovych and parliamentary opposition leaders signed an agreement calling for an interim government and early elections. The following day, Yanukovych fled Kyiv and later Ukraine;[89] parliament subsequently voted to remove him from office.[90][91][92] Leaders in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych,[93] leading to pro-Russian unrest.[94]
FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 02:23 #679211
I hope it is clear that what is on You Tube is what they want you to see. Banning RT and Sputnik News confirms this fact. I have searched for 'Ukraine war' on You Tube and see the results - please try it for yourself, that is one of the few things we can verify.

The critical need for humanitarian relief in Ukraine
YouTube

'You deserve the truth': Boris Johnson addresses Russians directly about Ukraine war

YouTube

it goes on...

Quoting boethius
I'm pretty they can get the Ukrainian perspective anytime of the day or night by turning on CNN.


CNN: Weapons for Ukraine
Russian soldiers discussed atrocities
Video appears to show execution of Russian prisoner by Ukrainian forces (does this help Russia?)

etc etc. CNN is doing very well for Ukraine.

The rest of the world can do nothing but cheer when their own national interests are advanced. I know I will, when it ends in two weeks.

RT:Kremlin hopes operation in Ukraine ends ‘in coming days’
Either the Russian forces will reach their goals in Ukraine or Moscow and Kiev will reach an agreement in the near future, the Kremlin says


Nice exit strategy: we will reach or goals or (failing which) there will be a.. not a defeat... there will be an 'agreement' . I see some of them have had a had taken a mass media studies course, maybe by watching CNN too much.
ssu April 08, 2022 at 04:31 #679246
Quoting Isaac
Where have I denounced those other reasons? Quote me, don't just assign views to me you find convenient.

And where have I denounced or denied NATO enlargement being one reason for Putin's actions? Quote me, don't just assign views to me you find convenient.

I think it's time to move on.
boethius April 08, 2022 at 05:38 #679261
Quoting Olivier5
Self-determination means nothing to you then? You have no criteria for it, no way to ascertain it?


That's the whole points, what right to I have to determine how you determine self-determination for yourself?
boethius April 08, 2022 at 06:05 #679265
Quoting FreeEmotion
Didn't the war start because of the 2014 coup in Ukraine, and if Russia had somehow prevented the coup from taking place, then it would have avoided war?


Exactly, you can keep making these sort of "debateoids" forever.

The legal arguments will never end because there's no judge and state to decide how it's going to be, which rights are more important, what facts are true, and who's "wrong" or then "more wrong".

Both sides will say the other "started it" and if are pro-one-side and lose that debate, you'll just switch to having started it for just cause reasons anyways, and if you lose that debate you'll then say the other side is evil anyways and the war is right to fight that evil even if it wasn't started for legally recognised just-cause reasons.

The problem with legal reasoning is that it's overdetermined. Everyone has too many rights and too many claims to all be simultaneously satisfied.

It's simply not a good framework to approach international relations.

Let's say the allies "fired the first shot" in WWII ... would that change our opinion of the Nazi's or our satisfaction of their defeat (mostly paid with Russian lives)?

There's simply far more going on in moral and political and factual understanding of the world than can be reduced into a few rights based arguments.

Obsession with rights is an obsession with privilege (only the privileged, such as board members, lawyers, professors, have any effective rights) and a denial of responsibility: "I have a right!" as opposed to "I'm trying to make a good decision, morally sound and best for society, and I'm responsible for my actions."

Quoting FreeEmotion
CNN: Weapons for Ukraine
Russian soldiers discussed atrocities
Video appears to show execution of Russian prisoner by Ukrainian forces (does this help Russia?)


It helps Russia a bit, sort of "signals" that Russia does have a perspective, and maybe some points and maybe Ukraine isn't perfect.

However, notice that we apply critical scrutiny to Russia. The video only "appears" to show something, and is not categorical proof of an atrocity such as the Bucha video (which as you pointed out, is still just a video also just appears to show something).

This sort of signal can be for 1 of 2 purposes (likely both).

First, it adds a little false-balance to protect against the claim that CNN is only doing information war for Ukraine: a la "see, we also reported a potential Ukrainian crime against a Russian." And the scale is so vastly different that it gives the impression that at most Ukrainians have done individuals murders and so zero comparison with atrocities and genocide.

Second, it prepares people for a diplomatic resolution, which CNN maybe instructed to prepare people for (a little mention from the white house or Langley to balance things a bit out a bit to help a peace deal), or then maybe is just hedging it's bets because it doesn't know if there will be peace or more war so it has two editorial directions it can go in.

There's almost always a diplomatic solution to problems, no matter how acrimonious things get.

As I mention in previous posts the West has fully bought into the narrative around Bucha, so they can't easily pull back from that; if everyone now wants a peace deal, one solution is to tell the Russians that no one's changing their rhetoric (just as Russia's not changing their rhetoric), and what's true or false doesn't really matter, but for the sake of peace what the West can do is at least balance things out a bit by bringing up a bunch of Ukrainian crimes, and then everything, overtime, can be blamed on individual soldiers and units, there will be long legal processes where everything gets super messy and drawn out and the rhetoric is gradually deescalated, and the news cycle moves on to the next "most important thing in the world to be angry about".

So, if there is no peace deal, then this single video "appearing" to show the "extrajudicial execution" of a Russian soldier (aka. murder), well it's only an appearance, only one soldier being murdered, and only one Ukrainian doing it on their own initiative anyways. So, hardly an "atrocity" or throwing any shade on Ukrainian institutions or Zelenskyy. It doesn't undermine much at all Ukrainian just cause. So if there's no peace process, focus can switch back to hating the Russians and just reporting anything Ukraine says on face value.

However, if there is a peace process, then CNN and other Western news agencies can build on this little seed of doubt and Russia legitimate grievances, and add a few more stories (there's plenty to choose from, especially the Azov guys who will literally post war crimes to Twitter) to balance things out enough for the peace deal to make sense: i.e. suddenly expose people to just how chaotic, messy and violent war is and soldiers do crazy things and crime on both sides, and facts are super difficult to know, but it's best the war stops and things will be investigated and it's time to heal and rebuild and all that.

Keep in mind that Russia does't care all that much what Western media says, it's got its own media. However, Western media will need to sell a peace deal to Western audience and therefore will need to pullback the rhetoric of Putin literally being Hitler and a single video proves a "genocide" in someway comparable to the organised extermination of 6 million jews, gypsies, mentally ill and other "untermensch".
Leto April 08, 2022 at 06:13 #679267
The UK and US are heavily invested in this war and its continuance, so don't imagine their official representatives will do anything other than stoke the flames. This war crime narrative is just the latest play in that game. Ukraine is being used for the latest proxy war and people are rushing in to take the bait, and wilfully to support measures that will make their own lives more difficult. The same old broken record over and over.
ssu April 08, 2022 at 06:16 #679269
Quoting Benkei
You left out the consideration that a successful resolution by a people of whom 50% of their relatives are Russian might cause problems in Russia for Putin as well, which is why it was also important for him to intervene.

Actually this is one issue worth wile to point out: the role Putin's Russia has taken to itself as the protector of ethnic Russians everywhere. Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria etc. and not only Crimea and the Donbass. All these enclaves used for intervention in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

And the frozen conflict in Moldova/Transnistria is actually a good example the Russia intervening in it's near abroad isn't just about NATO enlargement.

Just like Slobodan Milosevic was the protector of all Serbs in all of the former Yugoslav Republics. Now this actually would be totally natural, likely any country would hold some importance to people of it's own ethnicity. However with Russia, this is actively done by the intelligence services and used very aggressively. In a similar fashion as Milosevic protected the Serbs.

Quoting Benkei
All the demands on the table from Russia before this war started were about: NATO expansion.

This war would not have happened but for: NATO expansion.

Other motives and strategic goals were ancillary at best.


How conveniently you totally forget the hostility of Putin to Ukrainian government, the whole denazification issue and the accusations of genocide. The latter, I agree, is purely rhetoric. Yet the way Russia is going after the previous government is noteworthy. Comes to my mind the US de-baathification in Iraq.

And how conveniently you totally forget, likely on purpose, that the whole 2014 crisis happened because of a trade deal between EU and Ukraine and the part that EU played in this. Even the student demonstrations were called EuroMaidan with enthusiastic waving of EU flags (which I guess I've rarely if never seen in the EU itself). Hence it wasn't just about the alignment towards NATO, it was also the alignment towards the EU.

And of course there's a long history of Russian intervention in Ukrainian politics and Putin's fear of "Color Revolutions". Which few if any have noted.

All I can say that it's at least progress with you that my arguments have gone from "That's a load of crap" to "Other motives and strategic goals were ancillary at best". So I guess it's worth wile to debate these issues with you.
boethius April 08, 2022 at 06:16 #679270
Quoting Leto
The UK and US are heavily invested in this war and its continuance, so don't imagine their official representatives will do anything other than stoke the flames


I agree that's how things seem now.

However, policy can change abruptly.

Other EU nations may push behind the scenes for a peace deal and use their leverage. The Ukrainian commitment to the war may also change regardless of US and UK desires.

Or, if promoting the war is suddenly a political liability than an asset, then being the "peace maker" may all of a sudden be politically expedient.

There are certainly factions in the US and UK political establishment that rather peace, deescalate with Russia, reduce inflation, stop pouring money into Ukraine when there's problem at home, and so on.
Punshhh April 08, 2022 at 06:18 #679271
Reply to Leto It’s better than the alternative, as far as global peace and peace in Europe is concerned.
Remember the U.K. is a poodle in this, as always and with a clown in office.
Isaac April 08, 2022 at 06:22 #679272
Quoting ssu
And where have I denounced or denied NATO enlargement being one reason for Putin's actions? Quote me


Well there's...

Quoting ssu
NATO enlargement is simply a side issue here, one thing that Putin extensively uses as a pretext for his imperialistic ambitions. Which, of course when it comes to Russia, are "defensive".

The real issue here is that Russia with Putin at it's helm didn't understand that the Russian Empire was over.


Or there's

Quoting ssu
this just shows how illogical and wrong it is to believe the fig-leaf of NATO expansion being the reason for this invasion.


...but that's not the point. The point is, I haven't just claimed you did denounce NATO as a motive.

Whereas you said of me...

Quoting ssu
Why the incessant urge to denounce every other reason but NATO enlargement as the cause for this war?



There's no 'moving on' this is what the whole discussion has been about from the start. These ridiculous attempts to shut down discussing the culpability of the US by constantly framing those that do as 'obsessed' or 'conspiracy theorist' or whatever, just for mentioning it.
Punshhh April 08, 2022 at 06:29 #679274
Reply to Benkei
I'd consider that a lack of imagination. Medieval peasants worked less than the average American and we're inexorably moving in that direction in Europe as well. By some measures feudalism would be preferable depending on what stage of capitalism you're living in.

This is a big subject.
Peasants in your part of the world may have had a nice life. They didn’t here, we lived under the brutality of our robber baron Norman overlords. We still haven’t shaken them off, they are still playing their robber Baron games.

Capitalism, or more pertinently, consumerism and technological advancement has had a calming effect on human society. It may have some unfortunate consequences, but we shouldn’t take the relative peace we have known for granted. Human history was more unstable before this development and with a larger global population could have become far more unstable.

It is quite remarkable that such a large population on the planet hasn’t descended into chaos and destruction before now.
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 06:44 #679276
Quoting frank
Isn't Zelensky the reason this is still going on?

If he would have left the country, Ukraine would be part of Russia now, right?


Good point. That's probably true, and would explain the relentless character assassination attempts by the representative of the Federation of Russia on TPF. They also tried to kill him for real, twice.
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 06:44 #679277
Isaac April 08, 2022 at 06:46 #679279
Reply to Punshhh


User image

Peasant cottage. During fuedalism, either owned or permanently rented by the peasant...

Today...

User image

Asking price - Half a milion.

FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 06:58 #679288
Quoting boethius
Didn't the war start because of the 2014 coup in Ukraine, and if Russia had somehow prevented the coup from taking place, then it would have avoided war?
— FreeEmotion

Exactly, you can keep making these sort of "debateoids" forever.


Apart from justifications, what I meant was that the undemocratic political processes and what amounts to Ukraine's sovereignty caused ethnic conflict and instability. Sounds rather familiar, sounds like some sort of a plan, or Chernobyl - like accident. There is no doubt those involved know what actually happened. Neither side is at fault, but a third, outside force and 'actor' to use the term somewhat in irony, seems to be to blame.

Quoting boethius
However, Western media will need to sell a peace deal to Western audience


Sounds like a dirty, disingenuous circus act-like media manipulation, not 'journalism' by any stretch of the imagination. More like a soft Mafia.
FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 07:06 #679290
Quoting Olivier5
Isn't Zelensky the reason this is still going on?

If he would have left the country, Ukraine would be part of Russia now, right?
— frank

Good point. That's probably true, and would explain the relentless character assassination attempts by the representative of the Federation of Russia on TPF. They also tried to kill him for real, twice.


If he had left the country, maybe there would be peace, and less people would be getting killed, except Russian soldiers at the hands of rebels, which would suit everyone just fine. Anyway I do not think that it makes sense to get rid of him if he is negotiating a peace deal.

What exactly is Zelenskyy fighting for, and what does he think of his chances, is he a gambling person, after all? In wartime planners talk about missions and suicide missions, which one is this?
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 07:07 #679291
Quoting FreeEmotion
is he a gambling person, after all?


Is he?
Isaac April 08, 2022 at 07:22 #679292
So...

Bloomberg:Russia’s currency jumped as much as 7.3% on Thursday, sealing its rebound from a collapse that followed the nation’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions that isolated it from the global financial system. A key driver of the latest gains is the continued demand for Russia’s oil and gas in Europe and elsewhere, handing the country almost $1 billion a day in revenue.


Meanwhile...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ireland-facing-rationing-as-ukraine-war-hits-food-and-energy-supplies-hj52jrx6x

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/food-shortage-warning-as-fertiliser-rationed-7bd8jg8gz


Those sanctions really hitting home...

...sorry, who was the target again?
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 07:28 #679294
Some interesting Ukrainian/Russian(?) anarchist speculations on what comes after:

The worst thing Putin has done in Ukraine is to reconcile the authorities with the people. The president has turned from an object of universal criticism into the Ukrainian Charles de Gaulle. The general of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry offers to deliver himself to the Russian army in exchange for the release of civilians from the besieged city and becomes a national hero. The entire population of Ukraine, from the homeless to the oligarch, unites in a common struggle. It is the same as in the USSR in 1941, when Stalin called everyone “brothers and sisters” and people believed in his sincerity. If that war was a domestic war for the USSR, then this became a domestic war for Ukraine. Kharkov and Mariupol are perceived as Stalingrad, Leningrad or the Brest Fortress.

...Ukraine has always been good at one thing: it was always normal to depose the ruler who displeased the people. This made it different from Muscovy (ancient Russia), where the figure of the Tsar was sacred. The exceptions were the Time of Troubles, which was ended by the merchant (Minin) and the prince (Pozharsky). But in Ukraine, it has always been the rule that unpopular leaders are forced out. This Ukrainian tradition goes back at least to the Cossack times. How many Ukrainian Cossack atamans have paid with their positions, and sometimes with their lives, for “unpopular measures”! Whether this tradition will continue now is hard to say.

[In Russia,] It should be added that if in the wild 1990s, the Russian businessmen were saved from a new popular revolution by gangster strife, which killed off a significant part of the active population (and not the worst part, because in such strife, the first ones to die were the ones who retained a vestige of their humanity, whereas the worst scoundrels survived), now that part same of population will be ground up in the war (and in similar strife after it, when the soldiers who are accustomed to robbing and killing will return from the front). In short, unless some “black swan” flies to the aid of the Russian people, Russia will repeat the Yeltsin-Putin three decades, after which the country will most likely perish [sic], except for Moscow and a few other regions, where there will be established a “thriving economy” with a 12-hour workday for the common people and elite restaurants and brothels for the oligarchs.


https://crimethinc.com/2022/04/06/and-after-the-war-the-prospects-for-social-struggles-in-ukraine-belarus-and-russia

Always nice to be reminded about being infinitely critical of state power, unlike Western liberals who, having learnt the name 'Zelensky' in the last two months having never heard the name before in their lives, have turned him into a new Bono to fangirl over.
SophistiCat April 08, 2022 at 08:08 #679299
Benkei:Crimea never would've become a part of Russia if the US hadn't been meddling in the internal affairs of Ukraine for decades already.

Quoting ssu
Hypotheticals are difficult as you yourself implied, but simply use your head here, Benkei. I know you have one.


I've been wondering about this phenomenon: Benkei, etc. are not even Americans, and yet they are as parochial as Americans are often said to be. Parochial about someone else's country! How pathetic is that? In their closed minds nothing exists, save for or because of the United States. Nothing else is worth talking about. Ukraine? Russia? Who the fuck cares! The US (and, of course, NATO and capitalism) is what this is all about. Or at least all that they can think about.

Then I realized what this reminded me of: antisemitism and other such obsessive bigotries and conspiracy theories. Now at least it makes some sort of psychological sense. Those Jews (Masons, gays, Americans) are the root of all evil. They openly and secretly manipulate events for the purposes of world domination or apocalyptic destruction.
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 08:13 #679301
"Gosh imagine people dedicating their time to speak about the most objectively destructive country and economic system on the planet that has objectively contributed to making dead Ukrainians how horrible this is just like antisemitism".

What is pathetic - completely and totally spit-worthy - is the elevation of all inconvenient critiques to the level of 'anti-semitism'. This is what happened to Corbyn's leadership, and it's unsurprising to see it rolled out here. It's using Jewish percecution like a fucking TV trope to be rolled out as one's convince. Fuck that and anyone who weaponizes antiseminism in that way. Oh and I suppose I should name names - @sophisticat.
Benkei April 08, 2022 at 08:14 #679302
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 08:24 #679305
"Despite the fact that the American state literally fucks with every nation on Earth thanks to its enormous and inescapable influence and coercive power, how dare these uppity non-Americans deign to have opinions on the topic. Just like antisemitism."

Imagine being so developmentally stunted that instead of thinking: hold on maybe there's a point to those who are critiquing a country that happens to be intimately involved in fighting a war on the literal other side of the Earth to them, and going - "no, it must be a conspiracy theory".

User image
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 08:24 #679306
Quoting StreetlightX
Always nice to be reminded about being infinitely critical of state power, unlike Western liberals who, having learnt the name 'Zelensky' in the last two months having never heard the name before in their lives, have turned him into a new Bono to fangirl over.


Zelensky is the modern anarchist champion. Power to the people!


From wiki, emphasis mine:

Zelenskyy grew up as a native Russian speaker in Kryvyi Rih, a major city of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in central Ukraine. Prior to his acting career, he obtained a degree in law from the Kyiv National Economic University. He then pursued comedy and created the production company Kvartal 95, which produced films, cartoons, and TV shows including the TV series Servant of the People, in which Zelenskyy played the role of the Ukrainian president. The series aired from 2015 to 2019 and was immensely popular. A political party bearing the same name as the television show was created in March 2018 by employees of Kvartal 95.

Zelenskyy announced his candidacy in the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election on the evening of 31 December 2018, alongside the New Year's Eve address of then-president Petro Poroshenko on the TV channel 1+1. A political outsider, he had already become one of the frontrunners in opinion polls for the election. He won the election with 73.23 per cent of the vote in the second round, defeating Poroshenko. He has positioned himself as an anti-establishment and anti-corruption figure.

As president, Zelenskyy has been a proponent of e-government and unity between the Ukrainian- and Russian-speaking parts of the country's population.[6]:?11–13? His communication style heavily uses social media, particularly Instagram.[6]:?7–10? His party won a landslide victory in a snap legislative election held shortly after his inauguration as president. During his administration, Zelenskyy oversaw the lifting of legal immunity for members of the Verkhovna Rada,[7] the country's response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recession, and some progress in tackling corruption in Ukraine.[8][9]

Zelenskyy promised to end Ukraine's protracted conflict with Russia as part of his presidential campaign, and has attempted to engage in dialogue with Russian president Vladimir Putin.[10] Zelenskyy's administration faced an escalation of tensions with Russia in 2021, culminating in the launch of an ongoing full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. Zelenskyy's strategy during the Russian military buildup was to calm the Ukrainian populace and assure the international community that Ukraine was not seeking to retaliate.[11] He initially distanced himself from warnings of an imminent war, while also calling for security guarantees and military support from NATO to "withstand" the threat.[12] After the start of the invasion, Zelenskyy declared martial law across Ukraine and a general mobilisation of the armed forces. His leadership during the crisis has won him widespread international admiration, and he has been described as a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.
boethius April 08, 2022 at 08:29 #679307
Quoting FreeEmotion
Apart from justifications, what I meant was that the undemocratic political processes and what amounts to Ukraine's sovereignty caused ethnic conflict and instability. Sounds rather familiar, sounds like some sort of a plan, or Chernobyl - like accident. There is no doubt those involved know what actually happened. Neither side is at fault, but a third, outside force and 'actor' to use the term somewhat in irony, seems to be to blame.


Totally agreed there's outside parties as well, making the legalistic debateoids even less conclusive.

However, I would still say faults are all around, they are easy to distribute and it's difficult to run out of that supply.

Quoting FreeEmotion
Sounds like a dirty, disingenuous circus act-like media manipulation, not 'journalism' by any stretch of the imagination. More like a soft Mafia.


Soft power, soft mafia. I can definitely get behind that presentation of things.

Although, be that as it may, some of these mafias we can influence, if not choose who the boss happens to be. Sometimes Kodos is just objectively a better choice.
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 08:29 #679308
Quoting Olivier5
Zelenskyy promised to end Ukraine's protracted conflict with Russia as part of his presidential campaign


How's that going, exactly?

Quoting Olivier5
and has attempted to engage in dialogue with Russian president Vladimir Putin.


Was this before or after he called for the no-fly zone that would inaugurate the annihilation of life on Earth?

And Wiki would no doubt forget that Zelensky's popularity was in the dumps before the war, and which has of course subsequently benefitted from the roiling mass of dead Ukrainians. But don't let anything as trivial as local Ukrainian opinion get in the way of your Western fantasies. Similarly, don't let any of this stop you from fellating the altar of state power.
hairy belly April 08, 2022 at 09:26 #679319
The minutiae of the international PR game are pretty funny. Zelensky has been addressing various parliaments for some time now.

A couple of days ago, he addressed the Greek parliament. He made his requests, drew historical parallels between Ukraine's fight and Greece's past, as he always does in these speeches, and then he let one of his soldiers address the parliament. The soldier he chose was part of the... Azov battalion. LMAO, you really can't make up this stuff! :lol:

But then it became even funnier. The next day, he addressed the Cypriot House of Representatives. Almost 40% of Cyprus is under Turkish occupation for many decades now with obvious parallels to what is happening in Ukraine right now, but Zelensky drew no such parallels. He didn't refer to the occupation of Cyprus at all. When the President of the House of Representatives gave her own speech after Zelensky, Zelensky even went offline while she was addressing the similarities of the aggressions against their respective nations. :lol:
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 09:37 #679320
Quoting StreetlightX
How's that going, exactly?


It's two to tango.

Quoting StreetlightX
Wiki would no doubt forget that Zelensky's popularity was in the dumps before the war,


You have data on that?
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 09:46 #679324
Poll Shows Zelensky Leading 2024 U.S. Presidential Race
Andy Borowitz, March 17, 2022

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—In a development that could upend American politics, Volodymyr Zelensky has emerged as the front-runner in the 2024 U.S. Presidential contest.

A new poll conducted by the University of Minnesota’s Opinion Research Institute shows the Ukrainian President leading both Republicans and Democrats in the race for the White House.

According to the poll, Zelensky is the first choice of fifty-one per cent of Americans, followed by President Biden at twenty-three per cent, Donald J. Trump at seventeen per cent, and Senator Josh Hawley at half of one per cent.

Davis Logsdon, who supervised the survey, said that Zelensky’s showing in a U.S. Presidential poll was the strongest ever for a Ukrainian politician.

“The fact that Zelensky was not born in the U.S. was not seen as an obstacle to his becoming the nation’s President,” Logsdon said. “And, though he does not speak fluent English, that has not historically been an obstacle either.”

neomac April 08, 2022 at 09:57 #679325
Reply to Isaac

[i]> There is an anthropological fact ... Nationality is one way we understand our social identity. — neomac
That's not an anthropological fact, it's an anthropological theory.[/i]

This is another good example of misquotation. This is what I take to be an anthropological fact: “There is an anthropological fact that grounds my moral reasoning: social identities are part of our personal identities and they are rooted in our communal life with other individuals in a given environment”. All human societies (independently from geographic and historical latitudes) have ways of identifying human groups and individuals based on group membership. This is an anthropological fact.
Some societies use “Nationality” as a way to identify social groups and individuals as members of those groups: nation states, national languages, national flags, national passports, national money, national sport teams, national customs, national cuisine are examples of ways we identify groups and individuals within groups based on nationality.
Some value or pretend to value nationality in highest degree and shape their political views or actions accordingly, like Putin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians), Sergey Karaganov (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Karaganov), the Izborsky Club (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/russ.12106), Vladimir Solovyov (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Solovyov_(journalist)), Dmitry Utkin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Utkin), the Night Wolves (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_Wolves).


> So now I'm to provide 'evidence'

When discussing topics, I don’t expect people to provide evidence in advance for everything they say, especially for what they take to be obvious or common knowledge. Yet if one needs evidence, one can ask. And I’m asking you now what evidences you have about this claim “The working class in both societies have more common interest against the ruling classes of both societies than the entire population of one has against the entire population of another”. I’m asking this precisely because I gave you what looks to me evidence to the contrary yet you didn’t address it at all. So once again: how come that the Russian soldiers (example of working class) prefer to kill Ukrainian families (which surely include members of the Ukrainian working class) instead of killing or mass revolting against the Russian ruling class (Putin and his entourage) if they have greater interest in opposing their ruling class more than in opposing other people?


> What they have in common is oppression. Something I though you were all in favour of fighting against.

Indeed I addressed that too: “Keep also in mind that I didn’t question the value one can put into class struggles, nor claimed that is always immoral” . Yet I’m not sure you understood my assumptions. Oppression is one, not the only element that I would take into consideration for moral assessment. Indeed “oppression” is a word with a moral connotation but I don’t take it to be necessarily negative, so its moral implications depend on the context: e.g. oppressing the Nazis, Isis, communist terrorists, organised crime would be morally defensible.

> It is an economic fact that the working class are oppressed by the elite classes, but apparently, that oppression doesn't qualify for you support.

If the word “oppression” has a moral connotation, then “working class are oppressed by the elite classes” is not a factual claim but a moral claim. If it has no moral connotation, what do you mean by economic oppression?


> If someone orders (or even supports) continued fighting, they bear some moral responsibility for all the foreseeable consequences of that decision. One of the foreseeable consequences is that more Ukrainian children will die. I don't understand what's so hard about that.

What I find hard to understand about that is how you identify the links between facts and moral agents to assess responsibility. For example you talk about some moral responsibility. Now, since you like metrics, I’m asking you: how much responsibility bears Putin and Russian soldiers for the fact that Russian soldiers are killing Ukrainian children wrt Zelensky, Biden, me, what is the math you are doing based on your still clandestine multi-causal theory? That’s necessary (yet not sufficient) to estimate what the most adequate morally response is.

> Not getting a literal 'say' is not the same as not having their interests considered.

Do you mean that Russian soldiers and Putin should have considered Ukrainian children’s interest before killing & bombing them?

> Where did I write anything even remotely related to deposing Zelensky?

Here, “It's not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed.” and “I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet.” These 2 claims strongly suggest that the issue is with Zelensky government and things would be better with Putin puppet.


[i]> the flaw in your reasoning lies in the fact that your moral claims do not take into account what Ukrainians value, as I do. For example, if I were Ukrainian... — neomac

Are you serious? Your evidence for you taking Ukrainian values into account and me not is that you've thought about what you would do if you were a Ukrainian? Do you not realise how ludicrous that sounds?[/i]

This is another good example of misquotation. My thought experiment wasn’t intended to provide evidence for what “Ukrainians value”, but to contrast my expectations against others’: for example when you claim “I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet.” you seem to expect some behavior from Ukrainians, like giving up on Zelensky instead of exposing their own children to the risk represented by Russian murders. And my point was precisely that we shouldn’t rely primarily on our expectations for moral assessments about Ukrainians’ behavior, but on what they value. Indeed you didn’t even need to do any guess work, because I made this point clear immediately after the thought experiment: “The point is that my moral claims concerning this war take into account what the Ukrainians value as this war concerns them in the first place (but ultimately not only them). And since I do not have direct access to what they want collectively, then I would take Zelensky as their chosen representative in times of peace and in times of war, until I’m proven wrong. BTW Zelensky support among Ukrainians is confirmed to me by some good feedback from expat Ukrainian friends and foreign reporters on the ground”.




> So I was asking you how you measured the degree of mistrust on this occasion to be 'too much' mistrust.

Negotiations failed, so either the demands were unacceptable and/or the assurances weren’t enough. Since I wasn’t there at the negotiation table, I can only guess from available evidences and plausible reasons that support either cases. I already provided some for both cases. So if assurances weren’t enough at the negotiation table (which I find plausible due to evidences and reasons), then the mistrust was too much.
Now it’s your turn: how do you measure the degree of mistrust on this occasion to assess if it’s 'too much’ or not?

> America and Europe entering into negotiations with Russia.

What are the reasons you have to support America and Europe entering into negotiations with Russia? What do you expect them to do?


> You've not answered the question. Does supplying weapons help?

I’m not sure about the answer. I suppose they do help in the sense that Ukrainians are using these weapons to counter Russian invasion (Putin didn’t reach his declared goals within 2 days nor 2 weeks), but maybe it's not enough and that’s why Zelensky is asking for more.


> So intention has nothing to do with morality? If I intend to murder someone, but end up accidentally helping them, that's exactly the same, morally, as if I intended to help them all along?

When I’m talking about moral reasons to act, I’m not talking about someone’s intentions to act according to those reasons, as you did in your example. So you simply misunderstood what I was saying. Concerning intentions I already made my point so you can address it, if you wish so.


> I took that to be a claim that you value the economic dominance of the US over the territorial dominance of ISIS (a more extreme example you used in our discussion about Russian tactics).

If and when a form of dominance increases the chances of refilling my belly more than having my head decapitated, that’s something I would personally take into account, also for morally establishing what is the lesser evil in the given circumstances. But I don’t have one dimensional and decontextualized moral claim to make about great power politics. My example that you extrapolated from its context, was simply meant to address your preposterous moral claim that fighting over a flag is no doubt immoral. And you never addressed it as such. So once again, if you were to choose only about these 2 options, would you prefer to be dominated by Isis or America? And between Russia and America?


> Why? If not the death and destruction these actions cause, then what is the moral force?

Death and destruction against the Nazis or Isis was morally defensible.
Moral force should be assessed based on what people actually value. Putin and Russian soldiers are destroying Ukrainians’ life because they do not want to submit to Putin’s criminal demands disrespectful of what Ukrainians value for their own sovereign country. So if Putin and Russian soldiers kill Ukrainians are immoral, if Ukrainians kill Russian invaders and murderers are moral.


[i]> I was referring only to these parts: — neomac
The parts that support your statement - not the parts that don't. Cherry-picking, in other words.[/i]

Well cherry picking is just fine when one really wants to eat cherries right? I don’t ignore the differences (indeed these are probably taken into account by Western administrations and the problem with homosexuality is present also in part of the Western societies), I simply claimed that relative value proximity has its relevance in moral considerations. And in the case of Ukraine there is some value proximity with the West (like their attitude toward Europe) that Russia is lacking. Yet I didn’t say that is the only thing that counts nor that is the most important thing nor I mean to idealise Ukrainians. The point is that I’m not looking for perfection, but again for lesser evil.
Not to mention the fact that you are supporting Russian murders’ demands against the Ukrainians even if you claim to value the life of the Ukrainian children that Russian murderers have killed, because accepting Russian de facto dominance is a lesser evil. So you too don’t seem to strive for perfection either right?


> I assume Ukraine demand that the invasion stops.

This is one thing they demand, not the only one though.

> Putin is currently consolidating his power. So should we stop sanctions on those grounds?

Would stopping sanctions oppose Putins’ power consolidation more than preserving them for a good while or making them even stronger? Or would Putin be more ready to significantly soften his demands before we removed those sanctions?

> You seem to be just appealing to whatever notions happen to support your already chosen course of action.

And you seem to be just making random attacks ad personam based on a poor understanding of what your interlocutor has expressly, extensively and repeatedly said.
Since you feel in the mood for such confessions, then there is something I too find really off about your dialectical approach to our discussion: you often make claims with little pertinent context often forcing one who doesn’t share your views to guess your assumptions or your line of reasoning, while I do the opposite and yet you keep misquoting or extrapolating my claims from their context.

> There's no reason at all to assume that agreeing to terms would increase Putin's power any more than not agreeing and losing the war. Or not agreeing and having NATO have to step in and win the war - both of which might end up increasing Putin's power, cementing his alliance with China and worsening the global political balance of power.

Agreed, but that has to do with geopolitical risk assessment that all great power politics must face in similar daring circumstances. And undoubtedly Western & Ukrainian leaders are not assuming anything for granted. However the situation looks to me much worse now, since Putin and China (as Putin and Xi Jinping talked about new world order) could take any concessions as a sign of weakness.



> You're assuming war is the only way to oppose expansionism. I disagree with the US using war to oppose Russian expansionism. I don't disagree with it being opposed in other senses.

If we are talking about Great Power politics, the only pertinent sense of opposition is how geopolitically meaningful such an opposition is. And, once again, to assess opposing strategies one should consider the views and demands of all competing powers, not the views and demands as framed by only one power, as you did.


> What standard of living to anticipate Ukrainians having after the US has finished drafting the terms of its loan agreements? Cuts to welfare spending, opening up markets to US competitors. You think those policies are going to benefit the poor in Ukraine?

I’m not sure. Yet after the Second World War many European countries were able to enjoy prosperity, democracy and welfare under the US dominance.
Besides Russia was happy to open its market to the West and its companies before this war, wasn’t it? How about now, with western companies gone and all the sanctions, is this war benefiting the Russian poor?
We should also clarify another issue concerning our discussion. I’m engaged in it, primarily because I have reasons to question 2 preposterous moral claims of yours: one about fighting over flags and the other is about Western responsibilities in the genesis and perpetuation of this war. One of the assumption I argued for is that we should not confuse strategic reasoning (especially if we want to talk about geopolitical power politics) with moral reasoning. Related to this, we shouldn’t ignore that the cognitive effort required in both cases is not the same: our capacity to provide a strategic analysis about Great Power politics is constrained by our non-expert understanding of a limited, second-hand and uncertain amount of available evidences. So for what strategy is concerned I tend to defer more to the feedback of experts and leaders, and then double-check based on what I find logic or consistent with other sources and background knowledge. In other words, on my side there isn’t much intellectual commitment you could challenge wrt “foreseeable consequences”, “metrics”, “de facto”, “help”, while on your side I don’t see much compelling strategic insights wrt “foreseeable consequences”, “metrics”, “de facto”, “help” to challenge what I understood about the stakes so far. That’s why I limited myself to support some moral claims (like a “carrot&stick” containment strategy by Western leaders was morally more defensible than a “murder&destroy” strategy by Putin or the continuation of this war is morally defensible depending on what Ukrainians and Westerners value) wrt all strategic understanding I could intellectually afford.


> Why would I ignore what the terms are? I've never even mentioned "whatever it takes". The terms here just so happen to be the de facto state of affairs. fighting over them is a waste of human life. Fighting over other terms might not be as they may be more immiserating than the war.

So you are saying that Palestinians should accept Israeli de facto settlements in the West Bank because they are “de facto”? The Talibans didn’t accept any “de facto” Afghan puppet government and took back their control over Afghanistan eventually. The expression "whatever it takes” simply refers to the fact that, in geopolitical strategy, demands and options are not assessed by one party the way their competitor frame them as I said repeatedly.
BTW, and once again, wouldn’t this line of reasoning of yours simply support whatever the status quo is (ruling class oppressing working class is a de facto situation right?), since no power (especially authoritarian) can be radically challenged without risking one’s (and often beloved ones’) material wellbeing and life?


> Do we have free reign to oppose Putin's expansionism by any means possible. IF torture would stop Putin's expansionism could we torture? If not, then the moral opposition becomes irrelevant whilst we're discussing methods, because the morality of the method is primary.

Methods are important sure, but they are just one dimension of a moral evaluation to me. The one who was dismissing talking about methods was you (“How many people have the 'stick' immiserated. That's the metric we're interested in, not the method.”).
Concerning the question “if torture would stop Putin's expansionism could be morally defensible?” my answer is yes, if for example we are talking about torturing Putin.


> The war is financed, given military and strategic support, and politically influenced by the US and Europe. You can't just bracket them out as if they had no relevance.

I’m not bracketing anything out. This is a proper starting point to morally reason about this war as I already argued. And will always start from there when questioning your preposterous moral claims about this war.
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 09:58 #679326
Reply to Olivier5 From February, before the war:

Scandals and tolerance for corruption have chipped away at Mr. Zelensky’s popularity. Sixty-two percent of Ukrainians don’t want him to run for re-election, and if an election were held today, he’d garner about 25 percent of the vote — down from the 30 percent he easily won in the first round of the 2019 election. He’d still be likely to win, but the historic 73 percent he scored in the second round feels like a distant memory.


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/ukraine-russia-zelensky-putin.html

This is common knowledge to anyone who did not suddenly get propagandized by the largest propaganda machine on Earth to love someone they had never heard of before in their life, overnight.

--

And of course, Americans, who are incapable of approaching politics in any way that does not involve celebritydom, are head-over-heels for the man. And considering the American electorate voted for a fucking cockroach in a coat to be their president, their electoral opinions on anything whatsoever are about as much worth as a shit smear on the bathroom wall, except to the extent that everyone else has to deal with the noxious, deadly fallout.
FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 10:37 #679337
Quoting Isaac
...sorry, who was the target again?


The 99%
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 10:43 #679338
Lmao I was just reminded that the US unilaterally pulled out of the UNHR council back in 2018 only to have rejoined it again in Janurary of this year.
frank April 08, 2022 at 10:51 #679341
Reply to StreetlightX We have schizophrenia.
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 10:54 #679342
Reply to frank What, it's funny. They made such a big deal of suspending Russia.
frank April 08, 2022 at 10:56 #679343
Quoting StreetlightX
What, it's funny. They made such a big deal of suspending Russia.


I know. Trump didn't care about human rights. That's why it's good to have actual laws.
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 11:01 #679345
Reply to frank Agreed. Which makes him continuous with every other American president in history.
Benkei April 08, 2022 at 11:09 #679346
Quoting ssu
Just like Slobodan Milosevic was the protector of all Serbs in all of the former Yugoslav Republics. Now this actually would be totally natural, likely any country would hold some importance to people of it's own ethnicity. However with Russia, this is actively done by the intelligence services and used very aggressively. In a similar fashion as Milosevic protected the Serbs.


Please don't get met started on the Serbs and Kosovo. https://www.counterpunch.org/2008/02/18/nato-s-kosovo-colony/

Milosevic in 1987:
“we should not allow the misfortunes of people to be exploited by nationalists, whom every honest person must combat. We must not divide people between Serbs and Albanians, but rather we should separate, on the one hand, decent people who struggle for brotherhood, unity and ethnic equality, and, on the other hand, counter-revolutionaries and nationalists.


History is a tricky thing. The Serbs weren't the devils the West has ended up making them out to be.

Quoting ssu
And how conveniently you totally forget, likely on purpose, that the whole 2014 crisis happened because of a trade deal between EU and Ukraine and the part that EU played in this. Even the student demonstrations were called EuroMaidan with enthusiastic waving of EU flags (which I guess I've rarely if never seen in the EU itself). Hence it wasn't just about the alignment towards NATO, it was also the alignment towards the EU.


You're replying to a comment that specifically mentions that situtation. And of course I hadn't forgotten, it just doesn't change my view. That trade deal was rejected by the elected government in favour of a deal with the Russians, which the West then took as a good reason to foment demonstration by working closely together with Nazi-sympathisers and racist nationalists, which gave the perfect excuse for Putin to annex Crimea.

I suppose that if the US could've managed this without involving the Nazis and nationalists, things might have been different as the local support in Crimea might have been significantly lower.

So again, I think these issues are ancillary which is why I asked when was it said and who was it said to. I think it's analysing what is "sold" and who it's sold to goes a long way to telling us what's really at stake. As far as I know the artificiality and dreams of empire are recent and mostly domestic. If Putin had been waxing lyrical about the Russian empire since he came into power, I'd assess it differently. Now I just don't put much weight on it. He could have changed and this might be a big thing now but I see no indication in other facts, other than his speeches, that this is the case. You see this war as proof of it, I think the war can be sufficiently explained by different causes - mainly NATO expansion and then specifically this in the NATO Brussels Communiqué of 2021 "We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process".

I think there's a bigger problem here for the EU by the way. Aside from all the negative effects the sanctions have on Europe as well, the lessened security, we've just been pushed even more firmly into the US' sphere of influence. Considering the US' belligerence I don't feel comfortable being its ally. There will be a reckoning and we the Netherlands might be pulled along with it. Much how they felt obligated to help in Afghanistan and Iraq. Whether its Russia or hina, I'd rather not get involved.
FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 11:10 #679347
Quoting Olivier5
According to the poll, Zelensky is the first choice of fifty-one per cent of Americans, followed by President Biden at twenty-three per cent, Donald J. Trump at seventeen per cent, and Senator Josh Hawley at half of one per cent.


Possibly an April Fools joke? I had no idea that the American public was so.. how shall I put it .. idealistic.

The reasons for pulling out of the UNHRC are fully worth quoting here:

The US has pulled out of the United Nations Human Rights Council, calling it a "cesspool of political bias".

Nikki Haley, the US envoy to the UN, said it was a "hypocritical" body that "makes a mockery of human rights".


https://www.bbc.com/news/44537372

Another head-spinning thought the freedomland.
ssu April 08, 2022 at 11:33 #679353
Quoting Isaac
...but that's not the point. The point is, I haven't just claimed you did denounce NATO as a motive.


Quoting ssu
NATO enlargement is simply a side issue here


Side issue is still an issue.
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 11:53 #679360
Reply to StreetlightX Thanks, interesting. Not a major plunge in popularity from what I can tell, but I don't have a NYT subscription.
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 11:56 #679361
Reply to Olivier5

https://archive.ph/onoLL

Use this site for most paywalls.
frank April 08, 2022 at 12:00 #679363
Quoting StreetlightX
Agreed. Which makes him continuous with every other American president in history.


Not really.
ssu April 08, 2022 at 12:02 #679366
Quoting Benkei
History is a tricky thing. The Serbs weren't the devils the West has ended up making them out to be.


And do notice that 1987 Milosevic changed from the Titoist Communist line to the nationalist.

Also do note that he was deposed by an opposition openly supported by the US and specifically it's State Department ...and still the Serbs aren't with the West. The Serbian opposition gladly took the support of the US, but the country didn't go along with the US afterwards. Just shows when you bomb a country, it won't be your friend even if there is regime change. This shows agency of the individual people, and that they aren't just mindless pawns of the Great Powers. Agency which many don't give to the Ukrainians themselves here.

Quoting Benkei
I suppose that if the US could've managed this without involving the Nazis and nationalists, things might have been different as the local support in Crimea might have been significantly lower.

In this thread I've earlier discussed the emergence of the extreme-right in Ukraine earlier, which happened actually prior to the 2014 revolution. And what is again dismissed is that after elections the far right lost. But that doesn't seem to matter. Some people go with the line of Putin that nazis have a say in present Zelensky lead administration. It's similar to accusing the Biden administration supporting neonazis because the previous president said good things about them (or declined to condemn them).

Quoting Benkei
If Putin had been waxing lyrical about the Russian empire since he came into power, I'd assess it differently. Now I just don't put much weight on it.

Even with Chechnya, Putin did start with differently: the focus was on stability and economic prosperity. That economic growth happened when oil prices went up. But what Putin failed in was to reorganize the economy and create genuine new growth. Coming from the class of robbers and putting his own people into positions of wealth and power didn't help when something new ought to have been done.

Hence I think his "imperial ambitions" started to gain track when the economy wasn't so fine anymore. When he couldn't provide more prosperity, then he started to provide more glory. And starting wars has always worked for him.

When you look at Putin's comments from when he rose to power and now, the rhetoric is amazingly different.



Benkei April 08, 2022 at 12:15 #679370
Quoting ssu
In this thread I've earlier discussed the emergence of the extreme-right in Ukraine earlier, which happened actually prior to the 2014 revolution. And what is again dismissed is that after elections the far right lost. But that doesn't seem to matter. Some people go with the line of Putin that nazis have a say in present Zelensky lead administration. It's similar to accusing the Biden administration supporting neonazis because the previous president said good things about them (or declined to condemn them).


It's not dismissed but also not relevant as to when Putin annexed Crimea. Those elections were afterwards and the damage of fraternising with nationalist and neo-Nazis was already done; there was genuine worry in Crimea as Russians weren't Ukrainians in the eyes of the nationalist. And in a sense, there's still a Nazi problem; it doesn't seem like a good idea to arm them even if they like to position themselves as a "Christian taliban" to fight against the Russian invaders.

Quoting ssu
Even with Chechnya, Putin did start with differently: the focus was on stability and economic prosperity. That economic growth happened when oil prices went up. But what Putin failed in was to reorganize the economy and create genuine new growth. Coming from the class of robbers and putting his own people into positions of wealth and power didn't help when something new ought to have been done.

Hence I think his "imperial ambitions" started to gain track when the economy wasn't so fine anymore. When he couldn't provide more prosperity, then he started to provide more glory. And starting wars has always worked for him.

When you look at Putin's comments from when he rose to power and now, the rhetoric is amazingly different.


I agree domestic policy has been mostly absent or to the extent there was a policy it was counterproductive. What else is new though? The US is run by oligarchs as well, which is why it's so important Europe becomes a real alternative with multi-party representation instead of an effective lapdog for US foreign policy.
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 12:18 #679372
Reply to StreetlightX Thanks, nice.

The conclusion of the article:

Yet Mr. Zelensky’s behavior, odd to the point of erratic, obscures a truth: He has no good options. On the one hand, any concession to Russia, particularly over the conflict in eastern Ukraine, would likely bring hundreds of thousands of people to the streets — threatening him with the fate of Viktor Yanukovych, the president overthrown by a revolution in 2014. Any decisive move against Russia, on the other hand, risks giving the Kremlin a pretext for a deadly invasion.

The show must go on, of course. The crisis continues. But the president’s performance — strained, awkward, often inappropriate — is hardly helping.
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 12:37 #679377
Reply to Olivier5 Ha, where is the fabled 'agency' of the Ukrainians now?

--

Among the saddest things about this war is that those who champion the independence of Ukraine - without addressing the conditions of that independence in the slightest - are simply championing for the right of Ukraine to self-determine the conditions of its own exploitation. Which is - true - marginally better than having those exploitative conditions dictated from Moscow:

Q: We have learned that the Ukrainian government, in the name of a state of emergency and using martial law, has enacted a series of laws that severely restrict employees' rights. Employers can increase the working week from 40 to 60 hours, shorten vacations or cancel extra vacation days. Are you afraid that all this will serve as a basis for a more radical transformation of labour law and trade unions in the name of war?

A: Prior to the war, Ukraine already had a high unemployment rate floating around 10%, with a labour force participation rate of 65% in 2021. The issues of a highly uncertain future raised by the heavy student presence at Euromaidan have only been exacerbated due to further gutting of the universities, among many other public sector austerity programs. High informal employment rates for all age groups and non-existent pensions meant there was no way out of poverty for most of the population. In a stagnating and hopeless country, you knew your plans wouldn’t materialise, but they collapsed slowly and allowed you to pretend there were options and guarantees. War, however, completely disorients you, making you feel utterly powerless as you are thrown into a sea of new incalculable probabilities, with everything lost and everyone confused. A month in, I am still not sure whether I’ll ever be able to speak of the “after” of this war. It is future-destroying, not only by burning up precious stock market options and millions of careers but on a cosmological scale too. As comrades are swept into the ranks of another patriotic army, not only overwhelmed by the tradition of dead generations but celebrating its repetition, the possibility of liberation seems foreclosed.

That's why I am afraid the “temporary” labour laws have merely formalised already-existing practices. Nobody cares much about proper legal conduct as millions have left their homes and employers have suspended pay. The system was slightly disrupted, but quickly adjusted itself and asserted its reign once again: refugees are trying to find any work whatsoever, and exploitation limits can be dispensed with in such demanding times. It’s difficult to speak to the possibility of these restrictions continuing after the war. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising, considering the need to make the trickle of foreign investment find profitable industries. The unions are unlikely to oppose these laws, as there is almost no independent trade union movement in Ukraine, and official post-Soviet organisations are nothing but hollowed-out conservative structures. There haven’t been any strikes, even during the 2014 uprising, and largely patriotic unions are unlikely to undermine the nation’s war efforts.


This is the wonderful democracy that Zelensky presided over and for which Westerners swoon for - retroactively. At best the Russians have made a hopeless future even more so.

https://endnotes.org.uk/other_texts/en/andrew-letters-from-ukraine-part-3
FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 12:53 #679379
The show must go on, of course. The crisis continues. But the president’s performance — strained, awkward, often inappropriate — is hardly helping.


They have a way with words. If any of the saner minds on this forum had been running Ukraine we probably would not have had a war at all. Half of us would have agreed to some sort of peace terms, the other half would have... what? Any takers?

The only thing that would have got destroyed would be the news subscriptions.
FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 12:56 #679380
Current events remind me of the Dark Side of the Force (referenced before in the video clip of the princess with the bad hairdo)

The central tradition of mainline economics deals with only one way of making a living: namely, producing useful goods and services. But there is another way of getting ahead-- through conflict or the "dark side"--that is by appropriating what others have produced. Logically parallel or military aggression and resistance, the dark side includes nonmilitary activities such as litigation, strikes and lockouts, takeover contests, and bureaucratic back-biting struggles. This volume brings the analysis of conflict into the mainstream of economics. Part I explores the causes, conduct, and consequences of conflict as an economic activity. Part II delves more deeply into the evolutionary sources of our capacities, physical and mental, for both conflict and cooperation.


https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Side-Force-Economic-Foundations/dp/0521009170
FreeEmotion April 08, 2022 at 12:59 #679381

Once you start on the dark path, forever will it dominant your destiny, consume you it will.'''' -Jedi Master Yoda
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 13:37 #679389
Quoting StreetlightX
where is the fabled 'agency' of the Ukrainians now?


At the end of a gun. The war has changed everything.
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 13:39 #679390
Quoting FreeEmotion
Possibly an April Fools joke?


It's a satirical piece.
Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 13:44 #679391
Quoting Olivier5
At the end of a gun.


Funny, we were talking pre-invasion. Very naughty of you, invoking agency as and when it suits you.
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 14:13 #679399
Quoting StreetlightX
we were talking pre-invasion. Very naughty of you


Don't be so judgmental. You asked:

Quoting StreetlightX
where is the fabled 'agency' of the Ukrainians now?


Streetlight April 08, 2022 at 14:17 #679400
Reply to Olivier5 OK Imma put that one down to miscommunication because I am lovely and charitable.
jorndoe April 08, 2022 at 14:26 #679401
Benkei April 08, 2022 at 14:31 #679402
Reply to jorndoe How many macho gays have started wars? I'm taking a closer look:

User image

:chin: hmmm...

I think at least one.
Olivier5 April 08, 2022 at 15:14 #679412
Christoffer April 08, 2022 at 15:21 #679414
What a wonderful army Russia has that writes "For the children" on the side of their missiles hitting civilians at a train station. And with the constant flow of reports on the war crimes and the evidence piling up. Well, there seem to be some lovely people in that army who really care about the Ukrainians.

I think I'm moving away from the idea that these soldiers don't know what they're doing in Ukraine, I mean, some obviously don't, but there seem to be a large part of them acting out pure terror and destruction. Mass murdering state-funded psychopaths by another psychopath. Taking out all of them is not justice, revenge, or some blood lust, but simply that such depraved people in such a massive destructive force cannot be allowed to exist as a risk. I understand how that Russian soldier felt while driving over his commander, I hope everyone drives over these monsters.
Punshhh April 08, 2022 at 21:10 #679459
Reply to Isaac
Asking price - Half a milion


Yes, one is less likely to indiscriminately bomb the second house.
jorndoe April 09, 2022 at 01:43 #679528
Jonathan Freedland comments:

Putin still has friends in the west – and they’re gaining ground (The Guardian; Apr 8, 2022)

Comparatively, there's a good deal more public self-criticism and soul-searching in the US than in Russia. A problem in the US is that it's kind of drowning, everything from all kinds of crud to intellectuals like Chomsky. In Putin's Russia, much like in China, they're oppressed (including heavy-handedly), whether covertly by (scared-offended) oligarchs or Putin or whoever. At least in the US, like in various European countries and Downunder and other places, people can launch scathing societal/political critiques. Russia's propaganda machine has the easier job, and a bit of help.

(There are people in Freedland's article I'd have problems getting along with.)

Putin denies Ukraine's self-determination (something that's part of UN's Charter in line with the human rights declaration). Rationale has been given, but activities, and lack thereof, seem to suggest other objectives?

FreeEmotion April 09, 2022 at 03:07 #679548
Quoting Christoffer
Taking out all of them is not justice, revenge, or some blood lust, but simply that such depraved people in such a massive destructive force cannot be allowed to exist as a risk.


Everyone has a right to exist.
FreeEmotion April 09, 2022 at 03:16 #679552
Reply to jorndoe

How is Freedland's article not hysterical propaganda.

with the rocket attack on Kramatorsk only the latest evidence


War is nothing more than the continuation of politics by other means.

Karl Von Clausewitz


I have a saying:

media reports are simply war by other means.


Given that our world is primarily image-driven, it is natural to find this influence permeating the mass media complex, which would include advertising, news, print, radio, television, plays, film, graphic novels, and so on. The old military psychological warfare tactics have thus been combined with the advertising and media propaganda studies to create a massive complex that, in my estimation, is well intertwined.


https://jaysanalysis.com/2011/05/18/psychological-warfare-and-media/

This time it is psychological warfare, I guess it is time to fight back.
FreeEmotion April 09, 2022 at 03:28 #679553
Quoting jorndoe
Mar 7, 2022 · Russian Orthodox Church Leader Blames Invasion on Ukraine's 'Gay Pride' (Newsweek)


I think it is called a right to opinion, that is one thing, but some of his remarks seem not very far off the mark.

The church leader characterized pride parades as "loyalty tests," and said that countries looking to ally with Western powers must embrace them or be shunned


Ultimately, Kirill called the invasion of Ukraine a conflict about things "far more important than politics," and insinuated that the embrace of progressive western values would lead to the end of civilization.


I think he is laughably behind the times: civilization ended a long time ago. I have no problem with an expression of opinion, in fact, I welcome it. All dialog starts with a peaceful expression of opinion, going to war is a choice for which we have identified the sole persons responsible.

Meanwhile the Pope weighs in:

"In Ukraine, rivers of blood and tears are flowing," the Pope said on Sunday while addressing followers in St. Peter's Square. "This is not just a military operation but a war which sows death, destruction and misery."


If anyone can find a similar statement from His Holiness the Pope on the other parts of the world where the same rivers are flowing, please post it here.

Vatican City, (CNA/EWTN News) - Praying a 'Hail Mary' for the people of Yemen, the pope urged people Feb. 3 to "pray hard, because there are children who are hungry, who are thirsty, who have no medicine, and are in danger of death," adding that "we take this thought home with us."


https://www.catholic.org/news/international/europe/story.php?id=80073


Francis was greeted by Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who escorted him to meet Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, the Grand Imam of Egypt's Al-Azhar mosque and university, one of the main seats of learning of Sunni Islam. The pontiff embraced him. Both men will hold meetings with Pope Francis on Monday. The UAE plays a leading role in the Saudi-led coalition battling the Houthis in Yemen.


https://news.yahoo.com/pope-condemns-yemen-war-ahead-historic-gulf-visit-135826385.html


Now all he has to do is travel to Moscow and embrace President Putin.

ROME — While people can be indifferent to wars in distant lands, they cannot afford to look the other way when war is at their doorstep, Pope Francis said.


https://news.diocesetucson.org/news/war-is-at-our-doorstep-pope



The Pope called for more international dialogue in order to put an end to the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and other regions of the world


https://www.eg24.news/2021/12/pope-francis-syria-and-yemen-are-forgotten-tremendous-tragedies.html

Dialog and weapons - how about missiles for the Yemeni whatever faction?
Streetlight April 09, 2022 at 03:41 #679556
https://jacobinmag.com/2022/04/ukraine-russia-putin-azov-neo-nazis-western-media/

A nice accounting of how Western media and analysis went from "we need to be really careful about Nazis in Ukraine" to "what Nazis nothing to see here haha Putin propaganda", right after the advent of war:

Before this war, Western media coverage presented a Ukrainian far right that was uniquely well-organized, well-connected to both the Ukrainian state and private benefactors, increasingly emboldened, violent, and threatening to democracy, and on the march in terms of its influence. Suddenly, this same media is now telling us all of this is simply lies and Russian propaganda, in line with the favored talking point of the neo-Nazis themselves. Calling this “Orwellian” doesn’t do it justice.

...Before the war, the German government–funded Counter Extremism Project had warned that Ukraine’s paramilitary training infrastructure “presents the risk that violence-oriented right-wing extremist and terrorist individuals from abroad obtain weapons and explosives training in Ukraine,” potentially “increas[ing] the effectiveness of the violence that these individuals may perpetrate in their home countries.” Yet despite years of media fixation on the threat of far-right terrorism — a threat that’s still relatively small at this stage but has the potential to get much worse — this concern, when it’s not dismissed as a Kremlin talking point, goes almost entirely undiscussed in the Western press, even as thousands of foreign fighters, some of them homegrown extremists, stream into the country.

There are serious risks for Ukraine, too. A Western public uninformed about the dangers of the far right is watching its governments, with no debate, send an avalanche of weaponry into the country, where it will fall (and some has already fallen) into the hands of extremists — the same extremists who have serially attacked vulnerable groups, want to institute a dictatorship, have repeatedly threatened and carried out violence against the government, and have already helped overthrow one president. With Zelensky now envisioning a postwar Ukrainian society with more armed people in the streets, and members of the military and National Guard — both institutions where extremists have made a home — patrolling everyday locations, this risk is all the bigger.

Putin’s war on Ukraine has, ironically, been a boon to its far right, which has been further legitimized, better equipped, and supplied with volunteers as a result of his attack. Tragically, the Western press is now also assisting this process, unwittingly advancing extremists’ preferred talking points. We don’t have to pretend there’s no far right problem in Ukraine to give the country our support and solidarity. But by rewriting history and doing PR for literal Nazis, we may be sleepwalking into more disaster.


Maybe in the quest for righteous rooting out of Russian propaganda people here should not find themselves running cover for Nazis.
Streetlight April 09, 2022 at 03:51 #679559
ThErE iS No ProPaGanDa In ThE WeSt - Every clown ever

The evening news programs of the three dominant U.S. television networks devoted more coverage to the war in Ukraine last month than in any other month during all wars, including those in which the U.S. military was directly engaged, since the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq, according to the authoritative Tyndall Report. The only exception was the last war in which U.S. forces participated in Europe, the 1999 Kosovo campaign.

Combined, the three networks — ABC, CBS, and NBC — devoted 562 minutes to the first full month of the war in Ukraine. That was more time than in the first month of the U.S. invasion of Panama in December 1989 (240 mins), its intervention in Somalia in 1992 (423 mins), and even the first month of its invasion of Afghanistan in November 2001 (306 minutes), according to a commentary published Thursday by Andrew Tyndall, who has monitored and coded the three networks’ nightly news each weekday since 1988.


https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/04/08/networks-covered-the-war-in-ukraine-more-than-the-us-invasion-of-iraq/
FreeEmotion April 09, 2022 at 03:55 #679562
Reply to StreetlightX I have posted the BBC's news items on the neo- Nazis, the big question is why the change in strategy, and even more worrying is the possibility that "The people we govern cannot think" as Adolf Hitler said, maybe people cannot even remember? A planet run by emotions seems to be a recipe for disasters. It would make a great Sci-Fi Novel.

FreeEmotion April 09, 2022 at 03:57 #679564
Reply to StreetlightX Very good, so what effect is this having on you, dear viewer, and citizen, hows the brainprogramming going so far?

The more powerful the government, the bigger and more brazen, and more obvious the lies.

- I said that.
Streetlight April 09, 2022 at 05:07 #679583
God, history really does rhyme with itself doesn't it. Just... ridiculous uncanniness:

The way NATO was waging its war was clearly not aimed at helping the Kosovars [in Yugoslavia] ,but using their plight as a pretext; similarly, Milosevic’s accelerated war against the Kosovars, while using NATO’s attack as a pretext, obviously had nothing to do with defending Serbia from NATO. Nevertheless, a prominent section of the left supported NATO’s war [against Yugoslavia]. As the war became more and more destructive and obviously counterproductive, it was difficult to withdraw support: if you had concluded that NATO was finally acting on behalf of the oppressed, even if unwittingly, you could only insist it finish the job.

Leftists like Ken Livingstone hence found themselves on the same platform as the likes of Margaret Thatcher. Of course, that may happen in peculiar instances. Yet to be allied to a warmongering section of Western imperialism on the issue of war must surely be a worry. NATO was not being dragged in and reluctantly carrying out actions that helped the oppressed. On the contrary, once it decided on war, it launched it with all the destructiveness and callous disregard for civilian life that it usually displays, while assiduously not helping the oppressed Kosovars.

... Regimes which are the greatest violators of human rights have always been useful for enforcing the ruthless exploitation of labour. There was no fundamental Western interest in intervening in Yugoslavia just because of aggression and human rights violations. There were plenty of examples of non-intervention when it was simply a humanitarian concern (Rwanda 1994). This was even the case with Iraq when it was gassing Kurds, rather than occupying the Western protectorate of Kuwait. From this one can understand that if the West does use “human rights” to justify a war against a tyrannical regime, it must really have some other interests in mind.

The support for NATO by a section of the left in 1999 had its mirror image in a very prominent section of the left which decided instead that, since an imperialist bloc like NATO was attacking Milosevic’s Serbia, the latter must be doing something right. The aim of this section of the left was to play down the crimes of Milosevic. In the most extreme cases, this meant pretending, that ethnic cleansing was not taking place and that the Kosovar refugees were “fleeing NATO bombs”.

....A number of left-oriented writers [demonstrated] the large-scale Western economic intervention into Yugoslavia, particularly through the free market radicalism imposed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the dramatic effects of which played a role in driving people to nationalism ... The dictates of the IMF and World Bank played the decisive role in shaping the Western policy of insisting on Yugoslav centralism, undermining traditional republican privileges. Some impressive works— Susan Woodward’s Balkan Tragedy and Branka Magas’ The Destruction of Yugoslavia — have documented this extensive relationship, correctly situating the rise of Milosevic in this context.


It's like this stuff follows a script.

Via Mike Karadjis, Bosnia, Kosova, & the West.
jorndoe April 09, 2022 at 05:43 #679588
Edmund Adam writes:

Analysis: Ukraine war: The history of conflict shows how elective wars ultimately fail (Mar 29, 2022)

(Didn't take Crimea and such into account, though.)

Going to be costly for Putin's Russia, ? rattling or not.

Benkei April 09, 2022 at 06:27 #679600
Quoting jorndoe
Edmund Adam writes:

Analysis: Ukraine war: The history of conflict shows how elective wars ultimately fail (Mar 29, 2022)


Uh... So all the Roman wars, Alexander the Great, the unification wars by Qin, they were all "necessary"?

I forget: Genghis Khan. Settler colonialism at the point of gun. Etc.
Merkwurdichliebe April 09, 2022 at 07:25 #679612
Quoting StreetlightX
It's like this stuff follows a script.


Indeed
Olivier5 April 09, 2022 at 08:34 #679616
Quoting StreetlightX
It's like this stuff follows a script.


Of course it does. It's the same old cold war script: invade country, bomb children, rape women and shoot prisoners, then deny deny deny, while the other side tries to make political hay of it.
Olivier5 April 09, 2022 at 08:44 #679617
Quoting FreeEmotion
If anyone can find a similar statement from His Holiness the Pope on the other parts of the world where the same rivers are flowing, please post it here.


It's part of his job description. He does so all the time.
Streetlight April 09, 2022 at 08:50 #679619
Reply to Olivier5 Lol, no, I had in mind the part where the West enthusiastically supports a rapacious post-communist dictator in order to expand capitalist market-economies right up until the point where he gets too big for his britches, threatens that market-expansion, and has to be bombed and fought into submission at the expense of a massacre of local population while then denying any and all involvement, complicity, and support after the fact. And then supported in turn by a bunch of bootlickers who who think that politics is Harry Potter. Good to know that you didn't read the extract though.
Olivier5 April 09, 2022 at 08:56 #679621
Reply to StreetlightX You have a vivid imagination, I grant you that.
Streetlight April 09, 2022 at 08:57 #679622
Reply to Olivier5 Funny that you call history imagination. Though I suppose you have to given that Ukraine's history began exactly two months ago for you and no further back.
Olivier5 April 09, 2022 at 09:10 #679625
Reply to StreetlightX You should write for Disney.
ssu April 09, 2022 at 11:34 #679639
Quoting Benkei
It's not dismissed but also not relevant as to when Putin annexed Crimea. Those elections were afterwards and the damage of fraternising with nationalist and neo-Nazis was already done; there was genuine worry in Crimea as Russians weren't Ukrainians in the eyes of the nationalist.

Also there were the language laws, which actually were raised by other neighboring countries as Ukraine has a vast amount of different ethnic minorities, not only Russians. As mentioned earlier, the role of the right-wing parties in the later stages of the Maidan revolution is obvious as a) they were organized and were a parliamentary party (the Right sector) and b) obviously militant extremists are at home in riots. Yet to dismiss or to forget that the neo-nazis lost later in elections is wrong. Claiming that the present administration has ties to neo-nazis cannot be done just by referring to articles from 2014.

And this just underlines how spectacular success the first invasion of Ukraine was for Putin.

Quoting Benkei
And in a sense, there's still a Nazi problem; it doesn't seem like a good idea to arm them even if they like to position themselves as a "Christian taliban" to fight against the Russian invaders.

The extreme right exists just as the extreme left. If Ukraine has a nazi problem, then a many countries have a similar problem and we should put the issue in it's true context. I think that there is a genuine need for this discussion in general, but it shouldn't be used as the way to attack the present Ukrainian adminstration as Putin's talk of neonazis and drug addicts running Ukraine and the need for "denazification" is simply delusional propaganda only intended to keep his own people from realizing the reality of the conflict.

Quoting Benkei
The US is run by oligarchs as well

Yeah, but it isn't so bad as in Russia ...or Ukraine. At least in Ukraine they openly admit and understand the problem. Zelensky's election victory just shows how desperately Ukrainians want a change to the system.

In the US... well, Amazon just got it's first trade union! Quite important when the corporation has more or less 1 million workers (that cannot be replaced by robots in China) and a loss for one important American oligarch.

A team of Amazon workers has forced the technology giant to recognise a trade union in the US for the first time. Workers at a New York warehouse voted 55% in favour of joining the Amazon Labor Union. The group is led by former Amazon worker Chris Smalls, who made his name protesting against safety conditions at the retail giant during the pandemic. Mr Smalls' victory marks a major defeat for Amazon, which had fiercely fought against unionisation.


User image

Quoting Benkei
which is why it's so important Europe becomes a real alternative with multi-party representation instead of an effective lapdog for US foreign policy.


Well, likely we will make our application to join that club, who some see as a lapdog for US foreign policy and others as a real Trans-Atlantic security organization. The application process is rumored to start at the 14th day of this month. Likely we will be in NATO along with you in the end of this year. If things go as the Finnish leadership has planned.

These events btw resulted in an denial-of-service attack towards the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry. Their servers were down...for one hour. Didn't make much headlines news other than comments "this was expected".
ssu April 09, 2022 at 11:53 #679640
Reply to jorndoe From the article:

The lure of using brute force to achieve quick economic and geopolitical gains has created a rolling tide of military mobilization that has carried countries into battle.

History often repeats itself in that those battles trigger the downfall of the stronger party who unnecessarily drew the first blood.


Now if with using that brute force one has indeed achieved gains in the past (second Chechen war, Russo-Georgian war, the annexation of Crimea), it's understandable one can make then disastrous choices and think everything will go as smoothly as before. Naysayers are alarmist idiots. You don't stop once you've got going.

Perfect example is one dictator who after incredible success with earlier military operations like Fall Weiss, Operation Weserübung and Fall Gelb, went on to more grand plans. So why not conquer the Soviet Union in 100 days with Operation Barbarossa? It sounds so reasonable and achievable.
Olivier5 April 09, 2022 at 12:39 #679642
Can stories defeat Putin?
Op-ed by Jo Nesbø, Le Monde, April 7, 2022

Vladimir Putin’s narrative that Russia invaded Ukraine to save a repressed people from 'a gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis' has gone down well, in Russia. Is this the real battlefield, the narrative? And what role can fiction play when the truth has fallen?

[...] in an era in which the truth has been devalued by fake news and propaganda, where powerful leaders are elected on a wave of emotion rather than their merits or political viewpoints, facts no longer carry the same weight they once did.

Facts have had to give way to stories that appeal to our emotions, stories about us and what defines us as a group, a nation, a culture, a religion. Perhaps it wasn’t a lack of weapons or military power that lost the wars of occupation in Vietnam and Afghanistan, perhaps it was a lack of stories that could “win people’s hearts and minds”. Or, more accurately: perhaps it was because the opposition had better stories.

"The first casualty of war is truth," said California Senator Hiram Johnson in 1917 - and it's one of the most often mentioned quotes about the current war in Ukraine. A quote used, among other things, to remind journalists how vulnerable fact-based truth is when two sides are fighting to impose their own version of events. But it also reminds us how naive it is to believe that a journalist - no matter how honest and independent - can separate his work from his own culture, nationality and inherited worldview, especially in times of war. [...]

In 1937, when the fascist general Franco bombed Guernica, massacring the civilian population, the whole city stood witness to what had happened. As soon as images of the destruction and the victims began to circulate, Franco and his generals, understanding the stir this would cause in Spain and abroad, insisted that the Republican population of Guernica had destroyed their city themselves.

For a long time, this version of events was believed -- at least by those who wanted to believe it. But the Republicans had a better storyteller on their side: Pablo Picasso countered with one of his most famous paintings, Guernica, which depicts hell falling on the small Basque town. Painted in Paris in 1937, this work is a non-objective representation of events, the product of an artist's imagination and experience, but it helped open the eyes of Europe. It was exhibited in Paris the same year, and then all over the continent, inspiring volunteers to go and fight alongside the Spanish Republicans.

If Guernica is both a work of propaganda and a masterpiece, so is Sergei Eisenstein's Battleship Potemkin [1925], commissioned by the Soviet authorities to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the 1905 revolution. While both works speak of real events, they also take great artistic liberties - the famous scene of the massacre on the monumental staircase in Odessa, for example, never actually took place.

But a fiction writer need not worry about such details. His goal is to tell something true, but not necessarily something factually true. To touch hearts and minds - not to report the number of deaths, who did what to whom, when and where. This freedom is what gives fiction its power, especially when we, the audience, are not aware that we are dealing with propaganda.

Tanner Mirrlees, a professor at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology, is the author of Hearts and Mines: The U.S. Empire's Culture Industry [2016]. In it, he explains how the U.S. Office of War Information created a division during World War II devoted exclusively to Hollywood, the Motion Picture Service. Between 1942 and 1945, the department reviewed 1,652 manuscripts, rewriting or deleting anything that portrayed the United States in an unfavorable light, including anything showing Americans as "indifferent or opposed to the war." [...]

Today, the whole world is sitting in the same theater watching the events unfolding in Ukraine. But what we are seeing are dubbed versions in each of our languages, which means that we are not all hearing the same story. There is a battle going on between the different versions of the story; the best one will triumph. Or, as the Norwegian film critic Mode Steinkjer writes in the daily Dagsavisen, "In war, the aim is not only to destroy this or that civilian or military target; it is just as much to win the hearts and minds of those parts of the world's population that are not directly involved in the conflict."

So the question is, what steps are we willing to take to win those hearts and minds, especially in a situation where a dictator like Vladimir Putin is playing by his own rules, deploying a kind of censorship and propaganda that we thought had been banned.

Is it desirable - or even proper - to play by Mr. Putin's rules? Isn't it contradictory for a democratic country to give up principles like freedom of speech and transparency, even if its goal is to temporarily protect these freedoms? Winston Churchill once said, "In time of war, truth is so precious that it must always be protected by a bulwark of lies." A pessimistic mind might add that in wartime lies are so precious that they must be protected by new lies, but the problem is that there will always be a new war or conflict somewhere to provide an excuse for new lies.

Optimists, including myself, can hope that the truth -- the imperfect, subjective truth of a journalist, artist, or any other story writer trying to express something true -- will win. We can hope that Abraham Lincoln was right when he said that "you can't fool all of the people all of the time" - in any case, the implosion of the Soviet Union or the ousting of Donald Trump from the White House point in that direction. Faced with the thousand and one versions of reality that we are served, we are not forced to give in and accept the idea that all versions are equally true. Some are truer than others.

We follow the day-to-day developments in military events, sanctions and diplomacy. But the war of stories is a long war. It is a war that Vladimir Putin will eventually lose, no matter how many bulwarks he surrounds his lies with. The only question is when.

Franco ruled Spain for almost forty years [from 1936 to 1975], with censorship among his main weapons of defense. But in the end, he was defeated in the history books; the Spanish people demolished his legacy and his ideas. Guernica was first exhibited in Spain in 1981, six years after Franco's death. In the space of just twelve months, the painting was seen by more than one million people, and today it remains one of the greatest attractions of the Reina Sofia Museum in Madrid. Because the truest stories - if not always the most factual - are the best.

neomac April 09, 2022 at 15:17 #679672
https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml


«We are at war with the West. The European security order is illegitimate»
Federico Fubini
16-21 minutes

«We are at war with the West. The European security order is illegitimate»

Sergey Karaganov has served as a presidential advisor in the Kremlin both under Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin. He is still considered close to Russia’s president and foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. His recent proposals on Russian-speaking minorities in the “near abroad” are known as “Putin doctrine” and Professor Karaganov, who is honorary chair of the Moscow think tank the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, was first to come out publicly about an all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2019. President Putin has mentioned on Feb. 24 that Ukraine’s accession to NATO warrants Russia’s military intervention to prevent it. However, Ukraine didn’t even have a Membership Action Plan for NATO and Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz clearly stated accession was many, many years off.How can an attack be justified on such grounds?

For 25 years people like myself have said that NATO expansion would lead to war. Putin said several times that if it came to Ukraine becoming a member of NATO, there would be no Ukraine anymore. In Bucharest in 2008 there was a plan of quick accession of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO. It was blocked by the efforts of Germany and France, but since that time Ukraine has been integrated into NATO. It was pumped up by weaponry and its troops were trained by NATO, their army getting stronger and stronger day by day. In addition we saw a very rapid increase of neo-Nazi sentiment especially among the military, the society and the ruling elite. It was clear that Ukraine had become something like Germany around 1936-1937. The war was inevitable, they were a spearhead of NATO. We made the very hard decision to strike first, before the threat becomes deadlier.

But Ukraine was not about to become a member of NATO, not for at least many, many years. There was time to negotiate.

We have heard all kinds of promises by Western leaders throughout these 30 years. But they lied to us or they forgot about their promises. We were told at the beginning that NATO would not expand.

How can you think a non-nuclear medium-sized country like Ukraine would ever attack a nuclear giant like Russia? And how can you think this is a Nazi country with a Jewish president elected with over 70% of the votes? Ukraine was being built by the US and other NATO countries as a spearhead, maybe of aggression or at least of military pressure, to bring NATO’s military machine closer to the heart of Russia. We can see now how well their forces had been preparing for a war. And Nazis were not only about killing jews. Nazism is about supremacy of one nation over another. Nazism is humiliation of other nations. The regime and the society in Ukraine were going very much like Germany in the 1930s.

You say that NATO promised never to enlarge to the East and Russia was cheated on that. But former Warsaw Pact countries requested to be included in NATO themselves. And Russia signed up to the Founding Act on Russia-NATO relations in 1997, accepting NATO enlargement. No cheating there. It was the biggest mistake of Russia’s foreign policy in the last 30 years. I fought against it, because the Founding Act of 1997 legitimized further NATO expansion. But we signed it because we were desperately poor and we still were trusting in the wisdom of our partners. President Yeltsin probably thought that we would sneak between drops of rain, to no avail. As for NATO, it was formed as a defensive alliance. But when the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia was weak, I was shocked when I saw the rape of Serbia in 1999. Then we had an absolutely atrocious war in Iraq waged by most of the NATO members and then we had another clear-cut aggression in Libya, always by NATO. So we do not trust words. But we know that article 5 of NATO, stating that an attack on a NATO member is an attack to all, doesn’t work. There is no automatic guarantee that NATO would come to the defense of a member under attack. Please read article 5 of the Treaty. But this enlargement is an enlargement of the aggressive alliance. It’s cancer and we wanted to stop this metastasis. We have to do it by a surgical operation. I regret we were unable to prevent such an outcome.

We all agree the Iraq war was illegitimate and was a very serious mistake. Corriere della Sera came out against that war at the time. But one grave mistake doesn’t justify a second grave mistake. And the US people could elect a new leader, Obama, that was against the Iraq war and changed American policy. Can Russians have an opportunity to do the same? I don’t think that in the foreseeable future we will have any change of power in Russia, because we are fighting a war of survival. This is a war with the West and people are regrouping around their leader. This is an authoritarian country and the leadership is always very attentive to the moods of the people. But I don’t see real signs of opposition. Also, in the US or else nobody was really punished for the war in Iraq, so we have our doubts about the effectiveness of democracy.

Your parallels don’t seem to match. In Libya, Ghaddafi was bombing protest demonstrations from the sky. NATO enforced a no-fly zone that had been called for by a UN Security Council resolution and Russia did not veto it. Yes. At that time we believed the reassurances of our Western partners. But then we saw a clear-cut aggression devastating the country. That led us toward total distrust of Western countries, and especially of NATO.

As for the intervention in Yugoslavia in 1999, it was made to stop a war that led to over 10,000 deaths and a UN tribunal charged Milosevic for war crimes, deportation and crimes against humanity. The massive killings in former Yugoslavia happened after the NATO’s rape of Serbia. People were killed on all sides. It was a civil war. It was an unspeakable aggression. And the Milosevic trial was a sad and humiliating show by petty people trying to rationalize their previous mistakes if not crimes


It was a UN tribunal, not a EU tribunal.
We don’t acknowledge the right of that tribunal.

You said that the real war now is against Western expansion. What do you mean? We saw Western expansion happening, we see Russophobia in the West reaching levels like antisemitism between the world wars. So war was already becoming likely. And we saw deep divisions and structural problems within Western societies, so we believed that anyway a war was more and more likely. So the Kremlin decided to strike first. Also, this military operation will be used to restructure Russian elite and Russian society. It will become a more militant-based and national-based society, pushing out non-patriotic elements from the elite.

The bottom line question is: Mussolini did not recognize the international order that emerged from the Versailles Treaty in 1919. Does the Kremlin recognize the legitimacy of the European order that emerged from the fall of the Berlin Wall? Do you think this order is legitimate?
We should not recognize the order that was built against Russia. We tried to integrate in it but we saw it was a Versailles system number 2. I wrote that we had to destroy it. Not by force, but through constructive destruction, through refusal to participate in it. But after the last demand to stop NATO was again rejected, it was decided to use force.

So the overall goal of this war is to overturn the presence of NATO in central and eastern European countries? We see that most of the institutions are, in our view, one-sided and illegitimate. They are threatening Russia and Eastern Europe. We wanted fair peace, but the greed and stupidity of the Americans and the short-sightedness of the Europeans revealed they didn’t want that. We have to correct their mistakes.

Is the EU part of the institutions that Russia feels are illegitimate? No, it’s legitimate. But sometimes we dislike EU policies, especially if they become more and more belligerent.
You seem to believe that an escalation of this war to other countries is inevitable. Is that what you are saying? Unfortunately it is becoming more and more likely. Americans and their NATO partners continue support of Ukraine by sending arms. If that continues, it is obvious that targets in Europe could or will be hit in order to stop lines of communications. Then the war could escalate. At this juncture it is becoming more and more plausible. I think the Joint chiefs of staff of US armed forces are of the same opinion as I am.

Denazification is what Ukraine seems to have proven by electing a Jewish president. Demilitarization is the opposite of what Mr. Putin has achieved, as this attack led Ukraine to get heavy weaponry from the West. Plus, Germany and the EU are rearming too, NATO has moved troops closer to Russia’s borders, Western sanctions are now much tighter, while Europe and the US got closer together and Russia is becoming financially isolated. Would you say Putin’s military operation is proving a success, so far?
Nazism is not only about antisemitism. It is about hating and suppressing all other nationalities. And it was taking over Ukraine. We never know how the military operations end. Demilitarization means destruction of Ukrainian military forces - that is happening and will accelerate. Of course, if Ukraine is supported with new weapons, that could prolong the agony. We can only talk about “victory” in quotes, because there are many casualties on both the Russian and the Ukrainian side. The war will be victorious, in one way or another. I assume demilitarization will be achieved and there will be denazification, too. Like we did in Germany and in Chechnya. Ukrainians will become much more peaceful and friendly to us.

But so far the Russian military had to withdraw after keeping Kiev under siege for one month. It doesn’t look like the military operation is going so well, does it? It’s a large military operation, so it has secrets in the way it’s waged. What if the Kiev operation was meant to distract Ukrainian forces and keep them away from the main theater in the South and South-East? Maybe that was the plan. Moreover Russian troops have been very careful not to hit civilian targets, we used only 30-35% of the lethal weapons that we could use. If we had used everything, that would have meant the destruction of Ukrainian cities and a much quicker victory. We did not do carpet bombing like Americans in Iraq. The endgame probably will be a new treaty, maybe with Zelensky still there. Probably it would mean the creation of a country in South and South-East Ukraine that is friendly to Russia. Maybe there will be several Ukraines. But at this juncture it is impossible to predict because, of course, it’s an open-ended story. We are in the fog of war.
There is clear evidence that civilians have been targeted and killed by the Russian in Mariupol, in Bucha and elsewhere. These look very much like war crimes and crimes against humanity and they were deliberate. Should they be persecuted?
The Bucha story is completely fake-staged, it’s a provocation.

It doesn’t look staged at all.
I watched the pictures and I am 99% sure. But more in general there is a war and civilians suffer. We know that Ukrainian neoNazi forces have been using civilians as living shields, especially in Mariupol. We have different pictures with you.

It’s rather the opposite: the Russian army did not allow humanitarian corridors. We opened them. They were blocked by nationalist forces. I know how our military operates but, of course, this is a war. We face a tragedy.

Did you expect this level of cohesion between Europe and the US? Well, the cohesion will collapse because of the problems of the West. But for the time being they were organizing even before this conflict. The West is failing and losing its position in the world, so it needs an enemy – for the moment we are the enemy. I don’t think the unity will last, Europe will not commit the suicide by choosing to lose its independence. I hope our European neighbors will recuperate from this dizziness of hatred.

You speak like some other country started this war, in fact Russia started it. I was not for this particular scenario, but it happened. And I support my country. The West committed several aggressions. We are now on the same moral level, we are equal, we are doing more or less like you. I regret that we lost our moral superiority. But we are fighting an existential war

Sanctions are getting tighter. Will Russia become more dependent on China? There is no question about that: we will be more integrated and more dependent on China. It has positive elements but overall we will be much more dependent. I am not very much afraid of becoming a pawn of China like some EU states became pawns of the US. First, Russians have a core gene of sovereignty. Second, we are culturally different from the Chinese, I don’t think that China could or would like to overtake us. However we are not happy with the situation, because I would have preferred to have better relations with Europe. But Chinese are our close allies and friends and the biggest source of Russian strength after Russian people themselves. We are a source of their strength. I would prefer to end this confrontation with Europe. My calculation was to create a safe Western flank to compete more effectively In the Asian world of tomorrow

You declared that China, not Russia, will emerge as the victor in this war. What did you mean? We will be victorious because Russians always are in the end. But in the meantime we will lose a lot. We will lose people. We will lose financial resources and we will become poorer for the time being. But we are ready to sacrifice in order to build a more viable and fair international system. We are talking about Ukraine, but we really want to build a different international system than the one that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union and, in turn, is now collapsing. We all are sinking into chaos now. We would like to build Fortress Russia to defend ourselves from this chaos, even if we are getting poorer for this. Unfortunately the chaos could take over Europe, if Europe doesn’t act according to its interests. What Europe is doing right now is absolutely suicidal.

Is that a threat? Don’t you think nuclear deterrence still applies? I know that officially under certain circumstances the US could use nuclear weapons for the defense of Europe and they allegedly could fight for the defense of Europe against a nuclear superpower. There is a 1% chance this might happen, so we have to be careful. But if a n American president takes such a decision inviting devastating response it would mean he is insane.

This war doesn’t look sustainable, including for Russia. It can’t go on for long. What are the elements to agree at least on a real ceasefire? First, Ukraine must be a completely demilitarized neutral country – no heavy arms, for whatever of Ukraine remains. This should be guaranteed by outside powers, including Russia, and no military exercises should take place in the country if one of the guarantors is against it. Ukraine should be a peaceful buffer, hopefully sending back some of the arms systems deployed in recent years.

Ukraine needs security guarantees, it needs to be able to defend itself or it will not be a sovereign country anymore.
I am sorry but Italy and most European countries cannot defend themselves either.

They belong to NATO…
They have been saving on security. That is how they got themselves into this awkward position that Europe is not considered to be a serious actor in the world. Switzerland and Austria are neutral, but are safe. So can Ukraine.

Do you realize that after what you just said, the debate in Italy will move towards investing more on defense? You are welcome. One of the grave mistakes of the Europeans in the last decades is that they didn’t invest in their security, under their ideal of eternal peace. But I think European nations should be able to defend themselves, because they have real threats coming from the South and the world is becoming a very dangerous place as international relations are collapsing. The question is more against whom Italy would like to arm. Against Russia? Well, that would be insane. But you need a more robust military force. You are living in a very dangerous place in the world. If you depend on America, you are selling out your own security and sovereignty because the Americans have their own interests.

The EU seems to be moving towards cutting dependence from Russian energy – first coal, then oil and finally natural gas. Did you expect that? I hope you are not suicidal. Of course that would damage Russia, too, but Europe would undermine its economy and its social situation. I hope it will not happen, because you can calculate your own interests. If you don’t want our coal, we will sell it somewhere else. If you don’t want our oil, after a time and some losses, we will sell it elsewhere. And if you don’t want gas, well, well, we can also eventually redirect it after some suffering. Russians support Putin at 81% now, people are ready for a rough period.

Do you think Italy and Europe could do something to broker a deal? Not easy, given the situation. But what they could do is try to stop this Russophobia, akin anti-semitism of the previous centuries, this satanization of Russia that would lead us eventually to a worse confrontation than we have now. Even Russian culture is being erased in Europe by a new cancel culture.
ssu April 09, 2022 at 15:52 #679675
Quoting Olivier5
So the question is, what steps are we willing to take to win those hearts and minds, especially in a situation where a dictator like Vladimir Putin is playing by his own rules, deploying a kind of censorship and propaganda that we thought had been banned.

This reality has been something that Russians do know well. There is things they say and have to say publicly, and then there is the totally different realm they can say in their kitchen when with people they trust. Hence there are several words for truth in Russian, just as there are for falsehood.

So for us who don't speak Russian and aren't in Russia, perhaps it our side that ought to be our focus.

Perhaps to show, just like you did in your comment and the example of Guernica, just how frail the truth is until history is written and the events have past. That people believed that the bombing of Guernica were "fake news" or Republican propaganda is telling. Before the war, ideas that Hitler was just correcting the injustices of the peace terms dictated after WW1 were quite popular. Only a small fraction of people in other countries enthusiastically supported Nazism.

And of course there was the dismissal of what actually Hitler was saying and what he had written in "Mein Kampf" as simply rhetoric intended for the German population. Or ignorance about it. You can notice it some rhetoric from the 1930's. That mr Hitler has done wonders with fighting unemployment. That there was this feeling of a new Germany. So some people were "understanding" Hitler, not totally adhering to the ideology. Surely leaders are reasonable when it comes to realpolitik, surely?


SophistiCat April 09, 2022 at 16:38 #679686
Reply to neomac You know we can just follow the link, right? You don't need to copy-paste the entire thing here.

Yes, this looks like a typical presentation of the official stance, geared more towards the foreign reader.

If you want to see something even more candid and unrestrained, read this article that was published about a week ago by the Russian state news agency RIA: What Russia Should Do with Ukraine (offsite English translation). It is a true fascist manifesto.
neomac April 09, 2022 at 17:06 #679690
Quoting SophistiCat
?neomac
You know we can just follow the link, right? You don't need to copy-paste the entire thing here.


The second time I checked, the article was behind a paywall, so I just wanted to spare you all the hassle.

Quoting SophistiCat
If you want to see something even more candid and unrestrained, read this article that was published about a week ago by the Russian state news agency RIA: What Russia Should Do with Ukraine (offsite English translation). It is a true fascist manifesto.


Thanks for the link!
FreeEmotion April 09, 2022 at 17:11 #679693
Thanks for the article, which contains something of a plan. To be sure, de-Nazification is curious term to me, I do not fear Nazis, I find these ultra-nationalists an amusing sideshow to the main political elements in many countries, including the United States. I think they are more or less harmless. I could be wrong.
In any case, it is difficult to see President Putin risking everything to ban Nazi fan groups. Do they wield power? I may never know.

The author has some measure of true journalism in him to address the results of the war realistically:

It is impossible to foresee in advance exactly in which territories such a mass of the population will constitute a critically needed majority. The “Catholic province” (Western Ukraine as part of five regions) is unlikely to become part of the pro-Russian territories. The line of alienation, however, will be found empirically. It will remain hostile to Russia, but forcibly neutral and demilitarized Ukraine with formally banned Nazism. The haters of Russia will go there. The threat of an immediate continuation of the military operation in case of non-compliance with the listed requirements will be the the guarantee of the preservation of this residual Ukraine in a neutral state. Perhaps this will require a permanent Russian military presence on its territory.

SophistiCat April 09, 2022 at 17:40 #679707
Quoting neomac
The second time I checked, it was behind a paywall, so I just wanted to spare you the hassle.


Ah I see, for some reason I was able to see it - perhaps because I use NoScript.
Olivier5 April 09, 2022 at 17:44 #679708
Quoting ssu
You can notice it some rhetoric from the 1930's. That mr Hitler has done wonders with fighting unemployment. That there was this feeling of a new Germany. So some people were "understanding" Hitler, not totally adhering to the ideology. Surely leaders are reasonable when it comes to realpolitik, surely?


"Surely, and Mr Hitler is fighting communism. That must count for something."

Often they would have the good sense to qualify their support: "I find him a bit intolerant, though."
baker April 09, 2022 at 18:20 #679718
Quoting Christoffer
I live in arguably one of the best establishments of this kind of system and it ranks us very high on indexes of life quality and freedom.


And other countries in other parts of the world have to pay the price for your life quality and freedom.

Like those poor South American countries that produce the lithium for your precious electric cars. Those countries are destroying their own land and their own people with dirty industry so that you can be "high on indexes of life quality and freedom".

I'll be impressed with Sweden once it's self-sufficient and once its happiness and wellbeing don't depend on the misery of others.
RogueAI April 09, 2022 at 18:34 #679722
Quoting FreeEmotion
Everyone has a right to exist.


Some people need to be put down for what they do.
baker April 09, 2022 at 19:06 #679728
Quoting boethius
We'd all like to see Russia and Ukraine and everywhere less corrupt and more democratic ... so, how?


It takes two parties for there to be corruption: One who wants to get ahead without doing the work or waiting his turn, and another who is willing to help him with that, in exchange for money or favors.
You can fire all the corrupt government officials, but as long as there are people who want to get ahead without doing the work or waiting their turn, there will be potential for corruption.

In short, corruption is possible when people don't value honest work and don't respect the order of things.
It then stands to reason that in order to minimize corruption, people need to value honest work and respect the order of things.

There is nothing we can really do about that except return to good faith dialogue and deescalate demonising both Putin and the Russians.

We cannot "win" with sticks and stones, and therefore can only "win" with words.

Which words exactly is the question.


That's not rocket science. Plain old common decency will do.


Quoting boethius
I don't see how debating just war from moral first principles would help arrive at a diplomatic resolution


It is my assumption that a diplomatic resolution cannot be arrived at as long as the matter of first principles hasn't been resolved.

First principles provide the bigger picture, the context for all practical interventions.

As things stand, we're trying to figure out what each party's first principles are, by making inferences from what they say about particular events and persons.
baker April 09, 2022 at 20:33 #679745
Quoting Olivier5
innocent bystanders


Someone who hates and despises isn't an "innocent bystander".
ssu April 09, 2022 at 20:46 #679750
Quoting Olivier5
Often they would have the good sense to qualify their support: "I find him a bit intolerant, though."

In the 1930's the division was more between moderates being for democracy and radicals being for totalitarianism, be it right-wing or left-wing.

Far too easily people become apologists to someone who is against what the people really hate.
ssu April 09, 2022 at 20:58 #679752
Quoting baker
I'll be impressed with Sweden once it's self-sufficient and once its happiness and wellbeing don't depend on the misery of others.

Actually prosperity and wellbeing emerges from trade. Not from closing the borders and confining to oneself.

But don't let the real world hinder your argumentation. And I think even official Sweden would be all but glad if all it's trading partners would be on the path to sustainable and ecofriendly economy that would make the countries prosperous. More prosperous people mean more IKEA stores around.

baker April 09, 2022 at 20:58 #679753
Quoting boethius
You really think it's "distance" and not "skin colour" determining the wildly different reactions to war, or which presumably there's always one side in the wrong and at least somebody is a victim, in different continents?


Not skin color per se, but the specific assumption about the level of civilization of a certain people. The general trend of this assumption being that the darker the skin color of a people, the less civilized they are. And the less civilized someone is assumed to be, the more the people who deem themselves more civilized are justified to patronize or despise them.


Although for some people, it is about distance. Of all the posters here, it seems that I am still the one who is closest to the battlefield. If they use mass nuclear weapons, the radioactive particles will reach where I live.

To me, this is the reason not to indulge in passion and feelings of hatred and contempt toward Russia. To me, the relatively short distance has a sobering psychological effect.
baker April 09, 2022 at 21:00 #679755
Quoting ssu
But don't let the real world hinder your argumentation.


And contempt wins the day once more.
Merkwurdichliebe April 09, 2022 at 21:07 #679760
Quoting FreeEmotion
Everyone has a right to exist.


That's a funny notion: existence as a right.

Quoting RogueAI
Some people need to be put down for what they do.


That's what Hitler thought about the Jews.
ssu April 09, 2022 at 21:22 #679767
Quoting baker
In short, corruption is possible when people don't value honest work and don't respect the order of things.
It then stands to reason that in order to minimize corruption, people need to value honest work and respect the order of things.


It's no wonder that in totalitarian systems corruption is rampant. Because in the end it is about rule with fear and that doesn't bring legitimacy for the state. So nobody will first look after that collective wealth that is called the government, and if it's wealth is stolen. When corruption is tolerated you get the type of system that is in Russia where your position defines how much you can steal and from whom you can steal.


Quoting baker
And contempt wins the day once more.

Sweden, even official Sweden, would be extremely happy if Third World countries would develop and take care of their environments and people. That country didn't have much colonies you know.
RogueAI April 09, 2022 at 21:55 #679779
Quoting Merkwurdichliebe
That's what Hitler thought about the Jews.


It's what we thought about Hitler's high command (some of them) at Nuremberg. We were right, the Nazi's were wrong.
boethius April 09, 2022 at 21:58 #679782
Quoting baker
In short, corruption is possible when people don't value honest work and don't respect the order of things.
It then stands to reason that in order to minimize corruption, people need to value honest work and respect the order of things.


So your plan of action is to just get rid of the people who don't value honest work and respect the order of things?

Quoting baker
That's not rocket science. Plain old common decency will do.


If all the people without plain old common decency were exterminated (the people that cause the problems) then all would be well?

Quoting baker
Not skin color per se, but the specific assumption about the level of civilization of a certain people. The general trend of this assumption being that the darker the skin color of a people, the less civilized they are. And the less civilized someone is assumed to be, the more the people who deem themselves more civilized are justified to patronize or despise them.


What the fuck are you talking about?
Christoffer April 09, 2022 at 22:19 #679789
Quoting baker
And other countries in other parts of the world have to pay the price for your life quality and freedom.

Like those poor South American countries that produce the lithium for your precious electric cars. Those countries are destroying their own land and their own people with dirty industry so that you can be "high on indexes of life quality and freedom".

I'll be impressed with Sweden once it's self-sufficient and once its happiness and wellbeing don't depend on the misery of others.


You don't seem to know much about Sweden, do you? Like, you don't even seem to know that our small/mid economy compared to the big superpowers, spend more of our GDP on foreign aid and support for the poor of the world than most other nations in the world. That we have a greater focus on fair trade agreements and handling the economy in a sustainable way than most.

If you're gonna try and blame Sweden for being a "bad western nation" I would say that it's a bad direction to try and argue hypocrisy. Maybe the rest of the western nations should copy Sweden more before throwing out any blame. Lead by example.
Apollodorus April 09, 2022 at 23:00 #679797
Quoting Olivier5
The EU is a project. It's not finished yet.


Well, finished or unfinished, all projects need money, n'est-ce pas?

Incidentally, the EU’s desperate attempts to break free from London isn’t quite going according to plan:

Brussels' plot to raid London’s €660 trillion (£563 trillion) clearing market has been dealt a major blow after Europe’s most powerful banking association issued a blistering attack against the bloc’s proposals.
The European Banking Federation (EBF) said the Commission’s plan to punish banks for failing to shift lucrative clearing business out of the City of London would cause “serious market disruption” and “significantly weaken the attractiveness and competitiveness” of EU clearing houses.


Brussels’ plot to raid City clearing dealt a major blow – Telegraph

As is well-known, EBF which represents nearly 6000 banks, has powerful members like UK Finance which is chaired by former chairman of Morgan Grenfell and Merrill Lynch, Bob Wigley, who is also cofounder of TheCityUk. TheCityUk’s board of directors and leadership council include officers of Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, BlackRock, Citi, American International, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

So, I think you can draw your own conclusions as to who dominates Europe's finances ....


FreeEmotion April 10, 2022 at 02:33 #679822
Would direct democracy prevent wars? Suppose the Russians were asked to vote on the question of whether to go to war .. or SMO in Ukraine, and the Urainians were asked to vote on giving up the dream of joining NATO and some other changes in order to prevent Russian forces from attacking, how would that go?

I am not too familiar with the thinking in that part of the world, not about how my fellow human beings think, after all, some want to fight to the death - sorry want other people to fight to the death, so I don;t know - I guess some people will vote for resisting Russian aggression and then leave the country.

Obviously this will not work. Things have changed:

The first examples of direct democracy can be found in the ancient Greek city-state of Athens, where decisions were made by an Assembly of some 1,000 male citizens.


https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-direct-democracy-3322038

Here is an article:

https://directdemocracyuk.substack.com/p/would-a-direct-democracy-go-to-war?s=r
petrichor April 10, 2022 at 07:08 #679878
Peter Zeihan on NATO provocations:

https://youtu.be/gbr3CiOhTO8

I keep hearing that if Ukraine would have just committed to neutrality, or the West would not provide arms, all would be well. Would it? I am not so sure.
Merkwurdichliebe April 10, 2022 at 07:23 #679880
Quoting RogueAI
We were right, the Nazi's were wrong.


The Nazis were definitely wrong. Im not so sure "We" are right. The world is not so black and white.
Streetlight April 10, 2022 at 07:27 #679881
If the Nazis didn't exist the West would have to invent them in order to exculpate themselves for all the horror they have ever committed. There's nothing someone in the West loves more than a Nazi - they serve the perfect internal excuse against which the West can maintain its pristine innocence, once expelled as some kind of abberant otherness.
Merkwurdichliebe April 10, 2022 at 07:30 #679882
Quoting StreetlightX
If the Nazis didn't exist the West would have to invent them in order to exculpate themselves for all the horror they have ever committed.


You are the Voltaire of modern political theory.
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 07:51 #679886
Reply to Apollodorus Money is not a problem. There's vast amount of it everywhere. Europe is rich. Now that the Brits are gone, the EU has a better chance of making progress. We were slowed down by these free wheelers.
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 07:56 #679887
Quoting baker
The more the Russians murder innocent bystanders, children, grandmothers and the likes, the more hospitals, maternities and supermarket they bomb , the harder it will be to make any lasting peace.
— Olivier5

Someone who hates and despises isn't an "innocent bystander".


How do you know that the children crushed by bombs in Mariupol or elsewhere 'hate and despise' the bombers?

Hating your own murderer justifies the murder now?

Aren't you full of hatred yourself, to the brim?
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 08:07 #679888
Quoting neomac
Some value or pretend to value nationality in highest degree and shape their political views or actions accordingly


So how does this 'fact' link to the morality of fighting for one's nation? Lots of people value money too. Does that make fighting over money moral?

Quoting neomac
how come that the Russian soldiers (example of working class) prefer to kill Ukrainian families (which surely include members of the Ukrainian working class) instead of killing or mass revolting against the Russian ruling class (Putin and his entourage) if they have greater interest in opposing their ruling class more than in opposing other people?


I didn't say they realised or agreed, I just said they had more in common with each other than their rulers and bosses.

Quoting neomac
Oppression is one, not the only element that I would take into consideration for moral assessment. Indeed “oppression” is a word with a moral connotation but I don’t take it to be necessarily negative, so its moral implications depend on the context: e.g. oppressing the Nazis, Isis, communist terrorists, organised crime would be morally defensible.


The word 'oppression' already covers that. What you're talking about is 'suppression'.
oppression
noun [ U ]
uk
/??pre?.?n/ us
/??pre?.?n/
oppression noun [U] (RULE)
a situation in which people are governed in an unfair and cruel way and prevented from having opportunities and freedom:

But I still don't see how it ties back to the argument. We're talking about moral reasons to keep fighting. I'm arguing that simply 'defending one's nation' alone is insufficient as a moral reason because the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another. Over time, even Russia's current atrocity will pale into insignificance compared to the lives cut short and ruined because of the ruling classes inhumane treatment of the poor - from whatever nation. I really don't see how you pointing out that some groups need to be suppressed bears any connection to that argument whatsoever. Are you saying the working class ought to be oppressed?

Quoting neomac
If the word “oppression” has a moral connotation, then “working class are oppressed by the elite classes” is not a factual claim but a moral claim.


That's right. There are two moral judgements right there in the definition I provided. 'Unfair' and 'cruel'. I would have thought it pretty self-evident that people swanning about in luxury yachts whilst children starve to death in their rubbish was both unfair and cruel - but if you think it's fine, then I don't think there's anything I can do do convince you otherwise.

Quoting neomac
how much responsibility bears Putin and Russian soldiers for the fact that Russian soldiers are killing Ukrainian children wrt Zelensky, Biden, me, what is the math you are doing based on your still clandestine multi-causal theory? That’s necessary (yet not sufficient) to estimate what the most adequate morally response is.


Why on earth would some kind of maths be necessary? Zelensky bears some moral responsibility for the deaths if he chooses to continue fighting when he could have take a less harmful other option. That's just a statement about how moral responsibility works. It doesn't require me to do any maths. If you don't agree then you'd have to offer an alternative theory of moral responsibility; one in which people can make decisions without any blame accruing to them for the foreseeable outcomes.

Quoting neomac
Do you mean that Russian soldiers and Putin should have considered Ukrainian children’s interest before killing & bombing them?


No. The paragraph wasn't about Russian soldiers and Putin. It was about The governments of Ukraine, the US and Europe, plus their supporters.

Quoting neomac
> Where did I write anything even remotely related to deposing Zelensky?

Here, “It's not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed.” and “I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet.” These 2 claims strongly suggest that the issue is with Zelensky government and things would be better with Putin puppet.


They don't 'strongly suggest' anything of the sort. It's absolutely absurd to suggest that every time I raise a criticism about a government decision, I'm calling for them to be deposed.

Quoting neomac
since I do not have direct access to what they want collectively, then I would take Zelensky as their chosen representative in times of peace and in times of war, until I’m proven wrong. BTW Zelensky support among Ukrainians is confirmed to me by some good feedback from expat Ukrainian friends and foreign reporters on the ground”.


So the elected leader of a country is assumed right about the values of that country until proven wrong? Do you apply that to your own country? Was President Trump, for example, right about the values of Americans simply by virtue of being their elected leader? What about the values of those who can't vote - children, the future generations - do they get a say?

Quoting neomac
> So I was asking you how you measured the degree of mistrust on this occasion to be 'too much' mistrust.

Negotiations failed, so either the demands were unacceptable and/or the assurances weren’t enough. Since I wasn’t there at the negotiation table, I can only guess from available evidences and plausible reasons that support either cases. I already provided some for both cases. So if assurances weren’t enough at the negotiation table (which I find plausible due to evidences and reasons), then the mistrust was too much.


That doesn't follow at all. Two parties could trust each other 100% and still not reach agreement on the deal because neither side thinks they have the concession they were looking for. It need have nothing to do with trust.

Quoting neomac
> America and Europe entering into negotiations with Russia.

What are the reasons you have to support America and Europe entering into negotiations with Russia? What do you expect them to do?


They are parties to the war. Negotiations generally include all parties. What I expect them to do is to offer concessions and make demands in the same way any party to a negotiation would.

Quoting neomac
> So intention has nothing to do with morality? If I intend to murder someone, but end up accidentally helping them, that's exactly the same, morally, as if I intended to help them all along?

When I’m talking about moral reasons to act, I’m not talking about someone’s intentions to act according to those reasons, as you did in your example. So you simply misunderstood what I was saying. Concerning intentions I already made my point so you can address it, if you wish so.


Doesn't answer the question. I asked "Is there any evidence that that's even the intention?" [with regard to the supply of weapons] and you replied "That’s irrelevant. I’m talking about moral reasons to help" If America's intention in supplying weapons is to make a profit, then one cannot say their help is moral, even if their action accidentally assists a moral cause.

Quoting neomac
If and when a form of dominance increases the chances of refilling my belly more than having my head decapitated, that’s something I would personally take into account, also for morally establishing what is the lesser evil in the given circumstances.


Really? So your personal satiation determines what's moral? That's certainly an odd notion of morality. What about the effect on others?

Quoting neomac
My example that you extrapolated from its context, was simply meant to address your preposterous moral claim that fighting over a flag is no doubt immoral. And you never addressed it as such. So once again, if you were to choose only about these 2 options, would you prefer to be dominated by Isis or America? And between Russia and America?


America over Isis. America over Russia. Now, those are not the only choices, what on earth have they got to do with the question of whether fighting over nationality is moral?

Quoting neomac
Moral force should be assessed based on what people actually value.


Second time you've made this odd claim. People value money, so fighting over money is moral?

Quoting neomac
if Putin and Russian soldiers kill Ukrainians are immoral, if Ukrainians kill Russian invaders and murderers are moral.


Agreed. But we were talking about the US, so I don't see the relevance. Western capitalist systems kill and immiserate millions of innocent people. Russian wars kill and immiserate millions of people. Ending one by invoking the other neither helps nor has any moral force. You seemed to think it did, I'm enquiring about that.

Quoting neomac
> I assume Ukraine demand that the invasion stops.

This is one thing they demand, not the only one though.


No. I'm sure the current Russian demands don't constitute the full sum of all they'd want either. The point is, they started the war, so it's just self-evident, they'd have a different list of grievancesQuoting neomac
> Putin is currently consolidating his power. So should we stop sanctions on those grounds?

Would stopping sanctions oppose Putins’ power consolidation more than preserving them for a good while or making them even stronger? Or would Putin be more ready to significantly soften his demands before we removed those sanctions?


That's not the question. The question was a moral one. If Putin's power consolidation was increased bu sanction and NATO involvement in the war, then ought we avoid those things?

Quoting neomac
> There's no reason at all to assume that agreeing to terms would increase Putin's power any more than not agreeing and losing the war. Or not agreeing and having NATO have to step in and win the war - both of which might end up increasing Putin's power, cementing his alliance with China and worsening the global political balance of power.

Agreed, but that has to do with geopolitical risk assessment that all great power politics must face in similar daring circumstances. And undoubtedly Western & Ukrainian leaders are not assuming anything for granted. However the situation looks to me much worse now, since Putin and China (as Putin and Xi Jinping talked about new world order) could take any concessions as a sign of weakness.


Right. So as far as the moral case is concerned, you concede the point that continuing to fight is not morally advised simply on the grounds of 'opposing Putin's expansionism' since it is a moot point what course of action would best do that. You agree then that I could very well be determinedly opposed to Putin's expansionism and yet advocate ending the war right now and agreeing to the terms on the table since it's perfectly possible to consider that course of action to be the one which will most effectively bring about an end to that expansionism?

Quoting neomac
> You're assuming war is the only way to oppose expansionism. I disagree with the US using war to oppose Russian expansionism. I don't disagree with it being opposed in other senses.

If we are talking about Great Power politics, the only pertinent sense of opposition is how geopolitically meaningful such an opposition is. And, once again, to assess opposing strategies one should consider the views and demands of all competing powers, not the views and demands as framed by only one power, as you did.


You've no idea whose views and demands I considered, since consideration goes on in my head. I only told you the course of action I thought best. Since you've agreed that it's complex and not easy to judge which course of action will bring about an end to Putin's power and which will consolidate it further, you can't possibly say, simply from the course of action I advocate, whose views and demands I've taken into account.

Quoting neomac
> What standard of living to anticipate Ukrainians having after the US has finished drafting the terms of its loan agreements? Cuts to welfare spending, opening up markets to US competitors. You think those policies are going to benefit the poor in Ukraine?

I’m not sure.


Right. So If I think their standard of living will be considerably worse, then It's a reasonable position to take that involving the US is not worth the benefit.

Quoting neomac
our capacity to provide a strategic analysis about Great Power politics is constrained by our non-expert understanding of a limited, second-hand and uncertain amount of available evidences. So for what strategy is concerned I tend to defer more to the feedback of experts and leaders, and then double-check based on what I find logic or consistent with other sources and background knowledge. In other words, on my side there isn’t much intellectual commitment you could challenge wrt “foreseeable consequences”, “metrics”, “de facto”, “help”, while on your side I don’t see much compelling strategic insights wrt “foreseeable consequences”, “metrics”, “de facto”, “help” to challenge what I understood about the stakes so far. That’s why I limited myself to support some moral claims (like a “carrot&stick” containment strategy by Western leaders was morally more defensible than a “murder&destroy” strategy by Putin or the continuation of this war is morally defensible depending on what Ukrainians and Westerners value) wrt all strategic understanding I could intellectually afford.


So you choose your "experts and leaders" randomly? Of course, when faced with situations where the consequences cannot be predicted by laymen, we cannot ourselves make judgements about what course of action will lead to what outcome, but we can judge who to trust, based on matter we are qualified to judge (such as intentions, trustworthiness, past record) matter that are either clear or for which there's no body of knowledge we can call on to for determination.

So why do you trust those who tell you that continuing to fight is better for the Ukrainian people? Why do you trust those who tell you that life under the terms of a US/European loan system will be better than one under Russian puppet government? If the outcomes of strategic decisions are beyond your expertise, then why do you choose to trust the experts and leaders supporting your current position and not those supporting the alternatives?

Quoting neomac
So you are saying that Palestinians should accept Israeli de facto settlements in the West Bank because they are “de facto”? The Talibans didn’t accept any “de facto” Afghan puppet government and took back their control over Afghanistan eventually. The expression "whatever it takes” simply refers to the fact that, in geopolitical strategy, demands and options are not assessed by one party the way their competitor frame them as I said repeatedly.


No. That's literally the opposite of what I'm saying. I'm saying the actual terms matter. It's not just a question of 'capitulate to any demands to avoid war', it's 'avoid the worst option'.

Quoting neomac
Concerning the question “if torture would stop Putin's expansionism could be morally defensible?” my answer is yes, if for example we are talking about torturing Putin.


So some methods are not acceptable? How about the continued exposure of millions of innocent children to Russian atrocities? Is that not an unacceptable method for you?

Quoting neomac
> The war is financed, given military and strategic support, and politically influenced by the US and Europe. You can't just bracket them out as if they had no relevance.

I’m not bracketing anything out. This is a proper starting point to morally reason about this war as I already argued. And will always start from there when questioning your preposterous moral claims about this war.


Go on then. Let's hear how you take US and European strategies into account.
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 08:25 #679893
Quoting ssu
In the 1930's the division was more between moderates being for democracy and radicals being for totalitarianism, be it right-wing or left-wing.


This dichotomy is still with us. After two generations tried to remember the horrors of Nazism, now people are eager to forget and to come back to simple solutions. So you see folks here conceding that Putin might be a bit authoritarian, yes?, like Hitler was deemed "a bit intolerant" back in the 30's. But in the grand scheme of things, they wet their panties for the big guy who sticks it to the [s]Jews[/s] err West.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 08:30 #679894
Quoting Olivier5
now people are eager to forget and to come back to simple solutions.


Imagine that. Anyone thinking solutions are so simple. Like thinking it's either full out war or Russian despotism. What kind of an idiot would be so simple as to think those were the only two options?
ssu April 10, 2022 at 08:34 #679895
Quoting StreetlightX
If the Nazis didn't exist the West would have to invent them in order to exculpate themselves for all the horror they have ever committed. There's nothing someone in the West loves more than a Nazi - they serve the perfect internal excuse against which the West can maintain its pristine innocence, once expelled as some kind of abberant otherness.

Do notice the universality of this, which obviously can be seen from Putin's rhetoric. Of course when it comes to Putin, he is willing to aid neo-nazis and right-wing extremists if it furthers his agenda of creating more instability in the West.

Which creates ironic twists as right-wing extremists organizations that are banned for example in my country then get help from Russia. At least earlier they weren't so in bed with Russians, but times change.
Streetlight April 10, 2022 at 08:39 #679896
Quoting ssu
Do notice the universality of this, which obviously can be seen from Putin's rhetoric. Of course when it comes to Putin, he is willing to aid neo-nazis and right-wing extremists if it furthers his agenda of creating more instability in the West.


Do notice the universality of this, which obviously can be seen from the West's rhetoric. Of course when it comes to the West, they are willing to aid neo-nazis and right-wing extremists if it furthers their agenda of creating more instability in the Rest.
ssu April 10, 2022 at 08:39 #679897
Quoting Olivier5
This dichotomy is still with us. After two generations tried to remember the horrors of Nazism, now people are eager to forget and to come back to simple solutions. So you see folks here conceding that Putin he might be a bit authoritarian, like Hitler was deemed "a bit intolerant" back in the 30's. But in the grand scheme of things, they wet their panties for the big guy who sticks it to the Jews err West.

Exactly.

Why he is just standing against Western imperialism. Anyone opposing the US gets their understanding.
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 08:48 #679898
Quoting Isaac
Like thinking it's either full out war or Russian despotism. What kind of an idiot would be so simple as to think those were the only two options?


A person being bombed by Russian despotism could view things this way, I guess.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 08:55 #679899
Quoting Olivier5
A person being bombed by Russian despotism could view things this way, I guess.


They could. But no one writing on this thread is being bombed by Russian despotism, so that's irrelevant. Both your comment and mine were directed at the non-bombed.

But, still, feel free to reply with another totally irrelevant bit of virtue signalling, we haven't yet had the glaring light of your pure virtue burnt fully into our retinas. Do please remind us one more time, is bombing children bad?
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 09:00 #679900
Reply to ssu Yes. Charitably speaking, people are also tired of a unipolar world, something I can understand, and it's a new thing, not a feature in the 30's. It's not healthy that the US army be as large as what? the next 5 to 10 national armies put together? They are just too dominant. And hypocritical to high degree. That much I can concede.

So when a guy challenges that dominance, even an evidently evil guy, a mass murderer, some simple minds see that as a plus.
ssu April 10, 2022 at 09:00 #679901
Quoting StreetlightX
Of course when it comes to the West, they are willing to aid neo-nazis and right-wing extremists if it furthers their agenda of creating more instability in the Rest.

At least not openly, but otherwise can be very much so. And of course, especially in the US these groups are infiltrated with typically the most ardent members trying to get others to do violence are FBI / Police agents. Seems then that these extremists are the cannon fodder for both sides in these turbulent times.

A mere glance at the first months of the conflict in Donbas makes it clear that Rogozin also enlisted other far-right groups and individuals, with these having no problem with killing Ukrainians. Both the Ukrainian supporters of ‘Russian World’ ideology whom Moscow had been cultivating since 2006, and many of the Russian militants in prominent positions or involved in the fighting in Donbas had neo-Nazi or far-right views. Those involved in fighting Ukrainians in Donbas included Alexander Barkashov, head of the neo-Nazi Russian National Unity party and other members of his party; of Alexander Dugin’s ultra-nationalist Eurasia Party; Edward Limonov’s Other Russia party and Black Hundred.

The Kremlin has long cultivated close ties with far-right parties in Europe, with these providing many of the politicians whom Russia invited to ‘observe’ the farcical ‘referendums’ staged in occupied Crimea and then Donbas in the Spring of 2014, as well as the comical ‘elections’ in Donbas in November 2014.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 09:07 #679902
Quoting ssu
Of course when it comes to Putin, he is willing to aid neo-nazis and right-wing extremists if it furthers his agenda of creating more instability in the West.

Which creates ironic twists as right-wing extremists organizations that are banned for example in my country then get help from Russia. At least earlier they weren't so in bed with Russians, but times change.


One more time for the slow ones at the back...

We have no say whatsoever over Russian policy so whinging about it is nothing but empty virtue signalling.

We do have both a say and a duty to hold our own governments to account. So doing so is not only useful but necessary.

It is not about balance, we don't need to discover who's worst and condemn them most.

We discover what our governments, our allies, are doing wrong and hold them to account for it.
ssu April 10, 2022 at 09:28 #679906
Quoting Olivier5
Yes. Charitably speaking, people are also tired of a unipolar world, something I can understand, and it's a new thing, not a feature in the 30's. It's not healthy that the US army be as large as what? the next 5 to 10 national armies put together? They are just too dominant. And hypocritical to high degree. That much I can concede.

But are Europeans here "the lapdogs" of the Empire? Some enthusiastically promote this view even in this thread, but it hasn't gone so easily with the US and it's allies. France is a good example of this. It has joined several of the wars that the US has fought, but not all. In not going along with the invasion of Iraq I remember the push from some angry Americans to change the name of "French Fries" to "Freedom Fries" and all the talk of "Old Europe".

Quoting Isaac
We have no say whatsoever over Russian policy so whinging about it is nothing but empty virtue signalling.

Yet to know and understand Russian policy is absolutely necessary. Ignorance about it is a weakness. Understanding what Russia has now become under Putin and where Putin has lead the country is important.

Quoting Isaac
We do have both a say and a duty to hold our own governments to account. So doing so is not only useful but necessary.

Yes. And notice that both me and @Christoffer have talked about what our governments are doing about the situation. I've personally met some members of parliament, not actually of the parties that I have voted, but talking even to them has given me confidence that they do understand what is at stake. It's comfortable to know that the bickering crowd of different parties and their politicians can get together and act as a team if the situation calls for it.

And since we don't have a history of colonization and foreign wars (except participation in the Afghan incursion), there's not so much to be critical about in this field. With other policies might be different...

Quoting Isaac
We discover what our governments, our allies, are doing wrong and hold them to account for it.

True.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 09:46 #679910
Quoting ssu
Yet to know and understand Russian policy is absolutely necessary. Ignorance about it is a weakness. Understanding what Russia has now become under Putin and where Putin has lead the country is important.


It strikes me now that this sums up nicely the issues with your responses (and to an extent @Olivier5 and the conversation I'm having with @neomac).

A quick summary of the last few hundred pages might be:

We say: "the US are terrible for doing X...

You say: "yes but Russia also does X..."

Or: "Russia does Y which is worse..."

As if we didn't know. As if our commenting on the US was because of a lack of data on who else does that too, or who was worse...

But our commenting on the US (rather than those others) has nothing to do with a lack of knowledge about their actions - we know full well that others support Neo-Nazis, we know full well that bombing children is a bad thing to do... We're commenting on the US (rather than those others) because they are the most powerful nation on earth. Because they are our government, or allied to our governments.

It's about holding power to account in the most effective manner, not 'informing'. Informing is the job of books, papers and lecturers. Holding government to account is the job of political rabble-rousing such as a thread like this. If there's historical data to take account of, it should be to serve that purpose, yours more often than not, serves only to pour cold water on it.

Isaac April 10, 2022 at 09:53 #679913
Quoting ssu
We do have both a say and a duty to hold our own governments to account. So doing so is not only useful but necessary. — Isaac

Yes. And notice that both me and Christoffer have talked about what our governments are doing about the situation.


I've read you both being broadly supportive of it, particularly the moves in the direction of NATO. So all the more odd then that you seem so opposed to us criticising our governments without you having to constantly undermine the power of that complaint by pointing out how some other government has done the same, or worse.
Benkei April 10, 2022 at 10:06 #679916
Quoting SophistiCat
because I use NoScript.


What's that?
ssu April 10, 2022 at 10:12 #679917
Quoting Isaac
A quick summary of the last few hundred pages might be:

We say: "the US are terrible for doing X...

You say: "yes but Russia also does X..."

Or: "Russia does Y which is worse..."

As if we didn't know. As if our commenting on the US was because of a lack of data on who else does that too, or who was worse...

Other than NATO enlargement being this reason for Russia to attack Ukraine (and for many, the absolutely only important reason) or that the US gave support to Ukrainian protesters in 2014, what is the issue why a thread about Ukraine and the war in Ukraine has to be about the US?

If Russia does terrible things in Ukraine and this is a thread about Ukraine, what is wrong with then discussing this?

Yes, sorry if we bring up the actions of Russia, because Russia is the country that invaded Ukraine. And saying that Russia does bad things doesn't mean that others like the US cannot do them on other occasions.

Quoting Isaac
I've read you both being broadly supportive of it, particularly the moves in the direction of NATO. So all the more odd then that you seem so opposed to us criticising our governments without you having to constantly undermine the power of that complaint by pointing out how some other government has done the same, or worse.

I'm not sure if you understand you here.

So your critical about your governments. Fine. But just what has it have to do with Ukraine? Focus should be on what is going to happen in Ukraine. What the effects of this will be in Europe. That the US has also invaded countries (like Iraq), isn't actually what this thread is about.

Isaac April 10, 2022 at 10:30 #679919
Quoting ssu
Other than NATO enlargement being this reason for Russia to attack Ukraine (and for many, the absolutely only important reason) or that the US gave support to Ukrainian protesters in 2014, what is the issue why a thread about Ukraine and the war in Ukraine has to be about the US?


Add to that the US warmongering to enhance arms sales and reconstruction loans, and the US deliberately spreading misinformation to those ends then - nothing more.

Is that not enough? They've been instrumental in causing the war, perpetuating the war, and lying about the war...and you're seriously attempting some faux surprise about what they're doing in a thread about the war?

Quoting ssu
If Russia does terrible things in Ukraine and this is a thread about Ukraine, what is wrong with then discussing this?


As I said, it's futile virtue signalling which draws attention away from the malpractice of those powers which we both can and ought hold to account. We're not your therapists, if you're upset about the bad things that are happening, talk to a professional. If you're proud of what your government are doing, buy a flag.

Quoting ssu
So your critical about your governments. Fine. But just what has it have to do with Ukraine? Focus should be on what is going to happen in Ukraine.


It is. As I said, the US and Europe are key players in Ukraine. Cause, motivation, solution. They are deeply entwined in all three.
ssu April 10, 2022 at 10:59 #679924
Quoting Isaac
Is that not enough? They've been instrumental in causing the war, perpetuating the war, and lying about the war...and you're seriously attempting some faux surprise about what they're doing in a thread about the war?

I think that in a thread about the war in Ukraine you should dare to talk about what is happening in Ukraine. Why are you so defensive about talking about Russia and what is has done in Ukraine?

Quoting Isaac
As I said, it's futile virtue signalling which draws attention away from the malpractice of those powers which we both can and ought hold to account.

A thread about the war in Ukraine is about the war in Ukraine.

If that is somehow futile virtue signalling for you, I guess it's you who needs therapy here.



Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 11:38 #679930
Quoting ssu
But are Europeans here "the lapdogs" of the Empire? Some enthusiastically promote this view even in this thread, but it hasn't gone so easily with the US and it's allies. France is a good example of this. It has joined several of the wars that the US has fought, but not all. In not going along with the invasion of Iraq


It's an old French dream -- to which I subscribe -- to build an autonomous Europe, including in terms of foreign policy and military. The idea is called "l'Europe [comme] puissance" (Europe as a power), as opposed to what we have now which is basically a common market with bells and whistles. But other EU members have always preferred NATO as the best security framework for Europe.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 11:55 #679934
Quoting ssu
I think that in a thread about the war in Ukraine you should dare to talk about what is happening in Ukraine.


I am talking about what's happening in Ukraine. The US, Europe and NATO are instrumental parts of what's happening in Ukraine. Not only that, but they're the parts toward which we bear some responsibility. That makes them not only part of what's happening, but the most important part.

Quoting ssu
If that is somehow futile virtue signalling for you, I guess it's you who needs therapy here.


Announcing who is morally wrong and ignoring your own culpability and responsibility is literally virtue signalling. Its the definition of the term.
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 12:09 #679941
Quoting Isaac
It strikes me now that this sums up nicely the issues with your responses (and to an extent Olivier5 and the conversation I'm having with @neomac).

A quick summary of the last few hundred pages might be:

We say: "the US are terrible for doing X...

You say: "yes but Russia also does X..."

Or: "Russia does Y which is worse..."


The exact opposite is happening. We are here to talk about Ukraine and you guys try to make it about your anti-american obsession, to deflect attention and blame away from Russia.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 12:12 #679946
Quoting Olivier5
We are here to talk about Ukraine


Then why do you keep going on about Putin? He's not even in Ukraine.
ssu April 10, 2022 at 12:12 #679947
Quoting Isaac
The US, Europe and NATO are instrumental parts of what's happening in Ukraine. Not only that, but they're the parts toward which we bear some responsibility. That makes them not only part of what's happening, but the most important part.

Most important part?

Most important part surely is with the Ukrainians and Putin's armed forces.

Well, my government is assisting Ukraine, sending them weapons. And with the words of our Prime minister, believing that Ukraine will win. And soon joining NATO.

Quoting Olivier5
The exact opposite is happening. We are here to talk about Ukraine and you guys try to make it about your anti-american obsession.

:up: :100:

Isaac April 10, 2022 at 12:13 #679948
Quoting ssu
Most important part surely is with the Ukrainians and Putin's armed forces.


Why?

Quoting ssu
my government is assisting Ukraine, sending them weapons. And with the words of our Prime minister, believing that Ukraine will win. And soon joining NATO.


So waive a flag.
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 12:17 #679950
Quoting Isaac
Then why do you keep going on about Putin? He's not even in Ukraine.


His forces are, cretin.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 12:20 #679953
Quoting Olivier5
Try be serious.


You first. You excluded talk of the US, Europe and NATO because this is about Ukraine. Why are they excluded but not Putin?

You'd argue that despite not being in Ukraine, Putin is responsible for the events there and integral to how any solution might work.

That's exactly the same argument by which discussion about the US, Europe and NATO is included.
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 12:30 #679955
Quoting Isaac
You'd argue that despite not being in Ukraine, Putin is responsible for the events there and integral to how any solution might work.

That's exactly the same argument by which discussion about the US, Europe and NATO is included.


NATO have no troops fighting in Ukraine, the Russians do. This makes a big difference in terms of involvement and hence responsibility.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 12:39 #679958
Quoting Olivier5
NATO have no troops fighting in Ukraine, the Russians do. This makes a big difference in terms of involvement and hence responsibility.


Indeed. I don't see anyone denying a difference in scale. You are attempting something much more categorical than that.

Why does the difference in the scale of responsibility mean we can discuss one party ad infinitum but should never mention the other?
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 14:05 #679979
Quoting Isaac
Indeed. I don't see anyone denying a difference in scale. You are attempting something much more categorical than that.


There is a categorical difference here. Those countries fighting in the Ukraine war, vs those not fighting. Two different categories.

A further categorical difference is between the party that started the war, and the party defending itself.

Quoting Isaac
Why does the difference in the scale of responsibility mean we can discuss one party ad infinitum but should never mention the other?


You can mention whatever. The influence of Saturn in Virgo is also relevant, I guess. But this is a thread focused on the war in Ukraine first and foremost, with tangents. So your description of the exchange above was getting things upside down: the real discussion is like this:

We say: "the Russians are terrible for doing X...

You say: "yes but the US also does X..."

Or: "The US does Y which is worse..."

Not vice versa...
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 14:17 #679983
Quoting Olivier5
There is a categorical difference here. Those countries fighting in the Ukraine war, vs those not fighting. Two different categories.


You were referring to responsibility...

Quoting Olivier5
This makes a big difference in terms of involvement and hence responsibility.


...you could at least follow your own argument.
How does who's actually fighting create a categorical difference. Again, Putin is not actually fighting. He's ordering, encouraging orchestrating the fighting, but not actually doing it. The US are playing a similar role (with the exception of ordering).

Notwithstanding any of that, you've not explained why the question of who is actually fighting has any bearing on the question of whom we ought discuss.

Quoting Olivier5
You can mention whatever.


I'm not asking for your permission, I'm interrogating your reasons. What are your reasons for thinking we ought not discuss the role of the US, Europe and NATO?

Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 15:41 #680020
Quoting Isaac
What are your reasons for thinking we ought not discuss the role of the US, Europe and NATO?


You mistook me for someone who cares what you talk about very much. I don't. When I see a mistake or a lie, I point it out. So for instance, all I meant to say in this particular instance is that your description of the exchange above was getting things upside down.

This precision made, you may carry on with whatever you were saying about the Big Satan.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 16:29 #680034
Quoting Olivier5
You mistook me for someone who cares what you talk about very much. I don't.


How's that in the least bit relevant to...

Quoting Isaac
What are your reasons for thinking we ought not discuss the role of the US, Europe and NATO?


...?

You presumably have an opinion on whether one ought to discuss the role of the US, Europe and NATO? You presumably have reasons for that opinion. I'm asking what they are. What I choose to do doesn't enter into it.

Quoting Olivier5
the real discussion is like this:

We say: "the Russians are terrible for doing X...

You say: "yes but the US also does X..."

Or: "The US does Y which is worse..."

Not vice versa...


Yes, obviously. But no-one is complaining about that. The part of the conversation I'm asking about is why you then say

"yes but Russia also does X..."

or: "Russia does Y which is worse..."

...and proceed to disparage the comment, infer (or often just directly say) that we're Putin apologists, that we're on Russia's side, that we're condoning their actions...etc

The reasoning for the first half I've already given...

Quoting Isaac
We do have both a say and a duty to hold our own governments to account. So doing so is not only useful but necessary.


...and...

Quoting Isaac
We have no say whatsoever over Russian policy so whinging about it is nothing but empty virtue signalling.


So I've explained why, when you say about Russia's crimes I'm inclined to say "what about America?". I'm now asking you in return why, when I talk about American culpability, you're so inclined to say "Yes, but what about Russia?"
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 16:56 #680039
Quoting Isaac
You presumably have an opinion on whether one ought to discuss the role of the US, Europe and NATO? You presumably have reasons for that opinion. I'm asking what they are. What I choose to do doesn't enter into it.


Sure, one ought to discuss whatever one wants to discuss. I think it's called freedom of speech. And if one doesn't want to discuss something, one is free not to.

Quoting Isaac
. The part of the conversation I'm asking about is why you then say

"yes but Russia also does X..."


I don't see anyone doing that here. They just think your points are irrelevant and they go back to their original issue with something they see as more relevant.

Isaac April 10, 2022 at 17:05 #680041
Reply to Olivier5

Your disingenuousness isn't the interesting matter here. If that's all you're prepared to offer at the moment I'll wait for another opportunity where you might be more candid.
petrichor April 10, 2022 at 17:16 #680045
I am curious what you all think. Suppose Ukraine, when Russia had its forces on the border threatening, would have committed formally to neutrality and to never join NATO. Would that have been the end of it? Suppose they would have then continued to develop their oil and gas interests in competition with Russia and furthering their development as a modern, Western-style capitalist democracy. Would Russia just leave everyone in the region alone?
RogueAI April 10, 2022 at 17:56 #680054
Quoting Merkwurdichliebe
The Nazis were definitely wrong. Im not so sure "We" are right. The world is not so black and white.


Sometimes it is.
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 18:20 #680061
Reply to Isaac Don't let the door hit your ass on your way out.
Changeling April 10, 2022 at 18:21 #680063
I think everyone here should watch this:

Isaac April 10, 2022 at 18:32 #680065
Quoting RogueAI
The Nazis were definitely wrong. Im not so sure "We" are right. The world is not so black and white. — Merkwurdichliebe


Sometimes it is.


So the first task is to determine which cases are black and white and which aren't.

Is that decision black and white?
Jamal April 10, 2022 at 18:33 #680066
Reply to Changeling I keep wishing he'd post more about Tbilisi cos I'm thinking of going.
Isaac April 10, 2022 at 18:34 #680067
Quoting Olivier5
Don't let the door hit your ass on your way out.


John Hegley:...he said, trying a more absurdist ploy
Changeling April 10, 2022 at 18:37 #680069
Reply to jamalrob I reckon he probably will soon
Olivier5 April 10, 2022 at 18:43 #680070
Reply to Isaac Oh, you're back? That was fast.

Wanna talk about the war in Ukraine, for a change?
ssu April 10, 2022 at 19:07 #680076
Reply to Changeling And that the obvious reason just why it is important to discuss what is happening in Russia. But I cannot do anything else but agree with this Russian guy. What Putin has done to Russia is truly unfortunate.

Because in Russia and for the Russians this is a tragedy. For Ukrainians it's a nightmare.

And what makes it so tragic is that when the Soviet Union collapsed the Russians avoided a bloody Civil War after the breakup of the Soviet Union (except in the Caucasus).

Yet now we do have that bloody civil war of the former Soviet Union.
ssu April 10, 2022 at 19:10 #680077
Quoting jamalrob
I keep wishing he'd post more about Tbilisi cos I'm thinking of going.


Many are going. It's only to get worse.

One of the interesting things about the exodus to Tbilisi is that the country had a war with Russia. But luckily they do understand that not all Russians are rooting for Putin.
ssu April 10, 2022 at 19:31 #680081
After the catastrophic "3 day war" or whatever, the next round Russia is seeming to do the way at least the Russian manuals say.

- Aleksandr Dvornikov is said to get the overall command of the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. Dvornikov lead earlier the Russian forces in Syria 2015-2016.

- The area is more confined, to the Donbas, which means Russia can concentrate it's forces. It basically doesn't have to have forces in Belarus or even in Russian border facing Ukraine north of Kyiv.

- more emphasis on logistics and supply. Obviously it's not going to be a lightning quick war, so have those supplies and railways working (as Russian logistical system depends on the railway system).

I think much too emphasis is given to the May parade. In my view Putin doesn't actually need the war to end then and shouldn't especially now have distractions from preparing accordingly for the next push. But as this takes time, so does the Ukrainians have time too. In days you cannot use totally new weapon systems, but in months you can do it. And Boris Johnson walking around Kyiv with Zelensky promised for example anti-ship missiles systems for Ukraine, which they have been lacking. In a month they could be fielded and hastily trained to use.
RogueAI April 10, 2022 at 19:35 #680082
Reply to Isaac As I said before, I don't engage with you because you're not an honest debater.
FreeEmotion April 11, 2022 at 01:51 #680176
Quoting ssu
And what makes it so tragic is that when the Soviet Union collapsed the Russians avoided a bloody Civil War after the breakup of the Soviet Union (except in the Caucasus).

Yet now we do have that bloody civil war of the former Soviet Union.


Which only proves that people have to constantly maintain efforts avoid the outbreak of war. This time 'diplomacy failed' I guess.
FreeEmotion April 11, 2022 at 01:59 #680179
Quoting ssu
In my view Putin doesn't actually need the war to end then and shouldn't especially now have distractions from preparing accordingly for the next push. But as this takes time, so does the Ukrainians have time too. In days you cannot use totally new weapon systems, but in months you can do it. And Boris Johnson walking around Kyiv with Zelensky promised for example anti-ship missiles systems for Ukraine, which they have been lacking. In a month they could be fielded and hastily trained to use.


The opinion of the rest of the world is that this horrific conflict should end as soon as possible.
However, as you mentioned, President Putin may not need this war to end, neither does the President of Ukraine, as it is, maybe he wants it to end in victory. "Why Ukraine Must Win" screams the Economist, I am sure that economy extends to the truth within their pages. So civilian deaths are not a determining factor here:

To end the war and save lives: come to a ceasefire and peace agreement as soon as possible (Zelenskyy said 'by May maybe we will have an agreement'). If saving lives is the biggest priority, there are many options, which I will get into next.




Benkei April 11, 2022 at 07:25 #680283
What a pathetic PR stunt by BoJo. Trying to viscerally be a war time prime minister.
Olivier5 April 11, 2022 at 07:59 #680292
A new word appears in Ukrainian: "Stop macronizing!"
By Christel Brigaudeau, special correspondent in Kharkiv (Ukraine), Le Parisien, April 11, 2022

The conflict has given rise to new words in the Ukrainian language. Names that pay tribute to the nation's heroes. Insults, like so many arrows shot at the invader. And then this verb full of irony: "macronete", which could be translated as "to macronize". Definition: "to be very worried about a situation, but not to do anything, in fact", summarizes on Telegram one of the online lexicons of the words of war. With this precision: the neologism owes its origin to the president of the French Republic, "who is not remembered for real help, but for his concerned photos taken from the Élysée palace".

In the cities threatened by the Russian invasion, Ukrainian residents and soldiers hail the active support of the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union to their country's resistance. Berlin and Paris are vilified though, accused of hesitation and false promises. The French president is accused of showing solidarity with Ukraine without doing anything concrete.

Benkei April 11, 2022 at 09:39 #680315
Reply to Olivier5 Macron believes in diplomacy first and foremost and has rightly been insisting on the EU breaking away from NATO for years to avoid being caught up in the imperialistic endeavours of the USA, which, by the way, proves to be totally unreliable for the degenerate nutcases it votes into office. The EU needs to become a strategic player if it wants a say about its long term future.

That he has consistently pursued a diplomatic solution makes him a statesman that understands the long game better than his 10-second attention span US and UK counterparts. Putin will have to come to the table at some point, he can't occupy Ukraine and large areas are vehemently opposed to the Russians. Other than calling Putin names, the US hasn't helped Ukraine either except making money off the militarization of Ukrainian society. We do know that when negotiations need to happen, France (and Germany and Italy) are the only countries that haven't disqualified themselves as negotiation partners.

I can appreciate his consistency and calm (and that of the French diplomatic corps) in this. It's easy to be angry but we need to keep our eye on the ball - long term peace.
Isaac April 11, 2022 at 09:54 #680319
Quoting Olivier5
The French president is accused of showing solidarity with Ukraine without doing anything concrete.


Fancy showing solidarity with Ukraine without doing anything concrete! It's a good job none of the contributors here would be so shallow as to spend post after post signalling their deep concern for Ukrainians, whinging about Russia (who are neither listening, nor care about your opinion) whilst doing fuck all to actually help.

...or were you helpfully offering us a single term to describe your contributions?
Streetlight April 11, 2022 at 09:54 #680320
Macron not warmongering hard enough for the warmongers.
FreeEmotion April 11, 2022 at 10:33 #680330
Quoting Benkei
What a pathetic PR stunt by BoJo. Trying to viscerally be a war time prime minister.


I just saw that, thanks, quite enjoyed it. It is the kind of thing that Prime Minister Johnson does from time to time, and we have to figure out what it all means, he seems such an affable chap. Alas, if Mr. Johnson has been Ukraine's leader or putin place of Putin he would not have done anything, thus, no war. There is a case to be made for not acting.

Anyone seeing this on Ukranian webcams would have immediately thought it was another fake atrocity, very clever move, and unexpected.

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/ukraine/kiev/maidan-nezalezhnosti.html
FreeEmotion April 11, 2022 at 10:46 #680332
Quoting Benkei
- long term peace.


Long term peace for whom, exactly, I mean the man on the street (except the streets of Kyiv) wants that but he is over-ruled is he not, by the feudal lord is he not?

Feudalism was the system in 10th-13th century European medieval societies where a social hierarchy was established based on local administrative control and the distribution of land into units (fiefs). A landowner (lord) gave a fief, along with a promise of military and legal protection, in return for a payment of some kind from the person who received it (vassal).

https://www.worldhistory.org/Feudalism/

The military protection part is very attractive, from my point of view, anyway.
Christoffer April 11, 2022 at 11:01 #680335
Reply to Changeling

He touches upon just what the problem is. The young in Russia do not mix well with what Russia has always been and people just ignored everything. The old people were either too scared to say anything, even when the iron curtain lifted, or they were hardcore Stalinists who just wanted a new daddy to take care of them, so they blindly followed the next masculine power who looked the part. All while the young who grew up in families with decent economical stability had access to the internet and knowledge about the world, thought that they lived in a nation that was just like any other stable democratic nation, with the same freedoms and rights. But it's this ignorance of what is going on underneath, the blind eye to political events unfolding that creates the groundwork for what is happening now. The young moving out of the country means that the only people left are Putin radicalists, and people who are even more scared to do anything just like back in the Soviet era.

This is what happens if people don't actively make efforts to fight against dangerous political movements in a nation. Russia already had the groundwork made to enable what's happening now, but we can see it in places like the US as well, where corruption and Trump radicalism have the same kind of symptoms. If unchecked, it could create a foundation for changing the political landscape entirely and if people "don't care about politics" then one day they'll wake up in a world they didn't want to be in. We can point out that it's not easy to do something in a nation that is so authoritarian as Russia, but it didn't become that overnight.

One of the biggest problems with the world today is people being too comfortable to understand their apathy. Generally speaking: radicals, extremists, conspiracy nuts and so on, make up a very small minority of the world, but they still move mountains politically since they are so vocal. We usually just dismiss them as "a very vocal minority", without realizing that such a minority being vocal can have a large impact. Marketing people for a company is "a very small vocal minority", but they still get people to buy their products. So if they are a minority, then the educated, morally balanced, and larger portion of the world should be more vocal against them, against the destructive bullshit they spread. But people love their apathy.
Isaac April 11, 2022 at 11:35 #680341
Quoting Christoffer
The young in Russia do not mix well with what Russia has always been and people just ignored everything. The old people were either too scared to say anything, even when the iron curtain lifted, or they were hardcore Stalinists who just wanted a new daddy to take care of them, so they blindly followed the next masculine power who looked the part. All while the young who grew up in families with decent economical stability had access to the internet and knowledge about the world, thought that they lived in a nation that was just like any other stable democratic nation, with the same freedoms and rights. But it's this ignorance of what is going on underneath, the blind eye to political events unfolding that creates the groundwork for what is happening now.


And yet...

Quoting Christoffer
we can see it in places like the US as well


The US has had none of the factors you describe from Russia yet you say it is experiencing the same (or similar) problems.

Doesn't that at least imply that the factors leading to such a situation are more probably something common to both nations rather than the less parsimonious conclusion that two completely different sets of circumstances have coincidentally resulted in very similar outcomes?



Isaac April 11, 2022 at 11:39 #680342
Quoting Christoffer
if they are a minority, then the educated, morally balanced, and larger portion of the world should be more vocal against them,


How? Websites, newspapers and social media spreading 'misinformation' have been increasingly banned since Covid times. Naysayers have been ridiculed, de-platformed, sacked and in some cases threatened with violence. Protests have been met with militarised police under emergency powers.

Could you explain just how much more vocal you expect the 'moral majority' to be? Summary execution perhaps?
Benkei April 11, 2022 at 11:49 #680345
Quoting FreeEmotion
Long term peace for whom, exactly, I mean the man on the street (except the streets of Kyiv) wants that but he is over-ruled is he not, by the feudal lord is he not?


Everybody. In the short term though a ceasefire in Ukraine would be nice.
Christoffer April 11, 2022 at 12:20 #680353
Quoting Isaac
The US has had none of the factors you describe from Russia yet you say it is experiencing the same (or similar) problems.


Why don't you read things correctly?

Quoting Christoffer
Russia already had the groundwork made to enable what's happening now, but we can see it in places like the US as well, where corruption and Trump radicalism have the same kind of symptoms.If unchecked, it could create a foundation for changing the political landscape entirely and if people "don't care about politics" then one day they'll wake up in a world they didn't want to be in.


To interpret this for you: Russia already has the groundwork to enable these problems, but the US doesn't... YET. We see the behaviors of corruption and radical movements of people under Trump. And if people "don't care about politics", they could wake up in a world similar to places like Russia. That is the point of the text, that unchecked political movements toward authoritarianism are ignored by comfortable people with apathy.

You seem to miss context when reading something, almost like you read sentences detached from the surrounding text. As you can see, I'm talking about how Russia's political groundwork for authoritarianism can happen in other nations and if the radical behaviors of the people match up, it could change the landscape in the same direction as Russia has now ended up.

Quoting Isaac
How? Websites, newspapers and social media spreading 'misinformation' have been increasingly banned since Covid times.


Yes, they spread misinformation in a time of crisis. The problem is the uneducated with a megaphone spreading misinformation that hurts other people. How many people died during this pandemic due to misinformation telling them not to get vaccinated?

Quoting Isaac
Naysayers have been ridiculed, de-platformed, sacked


That's not what I've seen. The ones that have been ridiculed, de-platformed or sacked have all taken part in spreading dangerous misinformation or acted with such disregard for safety, like nurses not caring for protocols when people risk dying around them.

Quoting Isaac
Protests have been met with militarised police under emergency powers.


The large gatherings who didn't have permission during a time when large gatherings need to be avoided? People who don't understand how a pandemic works, who don't understand that large gatherings could create super-spreading events which result in people outside of this gathering getting killed by the consequence of such a super-spreading event, don't know what the fuck they're talking about. To be blind to how pandemics work is to ignore facts.

If you can't see the difference between police trying to handle people acting stupid and risking other people's lives, as in the case of Covid demonstrations during a pandemic - and police silencing freedom of speech as a form of authoritarian censorship, then I don't think you have the ability to see different topics in their full complexity and just react to trigger markers bound to your ideological ideas.

Quoting Isaac
Could you explain just how much more vocal you expect the 'moral majority' to be? Summary execution perhaps?


At least on par with the vocal minority advocating for extreme nationalism, racism, antivaccine, conspiracy theories etc. it would balance the "marketing" of such movements.


neomac April 11, 2022 at 14:45 #680400
Reply to Isaac

[i]> So how does this 'fact' link to the morality of fighting for one's nation? Lots of people value money too. Does that make fighting over money moral?

> People value money, so fighting over money is moral?[/i]

Also fighting over money can be moral of course, e.g. if fighting those who stole the money is morally defensible. Rebellions against work exploitation can be also understood as a moral fight over money as a means of subsistence and well-being.
I take moral assessment as an a posteriori comparative task based on what we actually value to determine what the best or lesser evil course of action is. And nationality is one thing that some people value.


[i]> how come that the Russian soldiers (example of working class) prefer to kill Ukrainian families (which surely include members of the Ukrainian working class) instead of killing or mass revolting against the Russian ruling class (Putin and his entourage) if they have greater interest in opposing their ruling class more than in opposing other people? — neomac
I didn't say they realised or agreed, I just said they had more in common with each other than their rulers and bosses.

> I'm arguing that simply 'defending one's nation' alone is insufficient as a moral reason because the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another. [/i]

You just keep claiming that “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another” without providing evidences and while being contradicted by the evidences: Ukrainian families got exterminated by Russian soldiers, no Ukrainian ruling class member has exterminated those families. And now I wonder if you need any since you do not take into account what working class representatives (like the Russian soldiers) actually prefer, arguing that either they have been blind to their interests or disagree with you on what they are but it doesn’t matter because you know better.
I don’t even get the moral reason insufficiency claim. You could claim that one is morally more justified in fighting X over Y, because X is more oppressive, but that doesn’t equate to claiming that one has no moral reason to fight Y.


> Are you saying the working class ought to be oppressed?

I don’t even understand why you keep talking about working classes. If you want to talk about it open a thread, argue for your claim, provide evidences and I’ll give you my feedback, if interested.


> I would have thought it pretty self-evident that people swanning about in luxury yachts whilst children starve to death in their rubbish was both unfair and cruel - but if you think it's fine, then I don't think there's anything I can do do convince you otherwise.

And what is the relation between Russian rich people being in a luxury yachts, while Russian children starve do death in their rubbish, with the fact that Russian soldiers are exterminating Ukrainian families and children?


> America over Isis. America over Russia. Now, those are not the only choices, what on earth have they got to do with the question of whether fighting over nationality is moral?

What?! It was you in the first place to insist on framing the war in Ukraine as a clash between the America and Russia dominance, not me. And when I’m asking you who you would morally support between Russian and American dominance, I’m asking you this precisely because you care to frame this war in this way.
On my side I was content with describing the war between Ukraine and Russia primarily as a war between Ukrainians and Russians, and argued that the clash between America and Russia is grounded on this clash between nations. So I have really nothing else to explain.
Once again since this is a war of dominance between the US and Russia according to you, which dominance would you side with? With the so treacherous, hypocritical, cynical, exploitative, immiserating, Yemeni blood thirsty West or with the all so righteous de-facto-winning misery-free new-world-order champion Mearsheimer-approved Russia?
Don’t waste your time dodging the question or musing about some utopian third option, because my challenge to your views is about consistency: if Zelensky’s moral stand and choices are to be assessed over a de facto situation or actual terms on the table (as you claim), then I don’t see why your moral stand and choices about this war can’t be assessed based on the actual clash between 2 de facto dominant powers, as you frame this war.


> Why on earth would some kind of maths be necessary? Zelensky bears some moral responsibility for the deaths if he chooses to continue fighting when he could have take a less harmful other option. That's just a statement about how moral responsibility works. It doesn't require me to do any maths. If you don't agree then you'd have to offer an alternative theory of moral responsibility; one in which people can make decisions without any blame accruing to them for the foreseeable outcomes.

Not only I already offered my arguments to support my claims (not the ones you put in my mouth) when I talked about the link between responsibility and agency, the multi-dimensional nature of my moral assessments and the right to self-defence. But I also argued against your clandestine causal theory to support Zelensky’s “some responsibility”.
I talked about math because you talked about multi-causal theory and multi causal theories would allow to evaluate the exact or statistical relevance of a cause in a given output. However the main point is not even to stress the inadequacy of your multi-causal theory. Discussing about the degree of responsibility, especially wrt other actors, is important for a proportional response: for example in morally pressing Zelensky to accept Russian demands or to formulate Ukrainian demands in a way that is more acceptable by the Russians. So if you want to talk about Zelensky’s responsibilities for the fact that Russian soldiers under Putin’s orders keep killing Ukrainians and their children you have to argue for it and assess it wrt Putin’s responsibilities to make sense to me, because if the right of the Ukrainians to defend themselves as long as they want without being morally blamefull is morally defensible (as I argued) , then Zelensky as their leader is morally justified in continuing to fight and bears no blame for that, while Putin & Russian soldiers bear all the blame for continuing this war.


> So the elected leader of a country is assumed right about the values of that country until proven wrong? Do you apply that to your own country? Was President Trump, for example, right about the values of Americans simply by virtue of being their elected leader?

From what I argued so far it should be clear that if half or so of the American population voted for Trump, I have to take into account this and what they value in Trump, of course. The same goes with Zelensky. But as I said I would consider also the value proximity between Trumpism and what I value. And other things as well. No single dimension is a priori sufficient for a moral assessment.

> Really? So your personal satiation determines what's moral? That's certainly an odd notion of morality. What about the effect on others?

As I already clarified many times, moral assessments depend on a multi-dimensional evaluation of a situation. Material well-being is one dimension I would take into account, sure. The effect on others is another dimension. And again I’m not striving for perfection, only for lesser evil.
My claim was only to make you understand why I wouldn’t support Isis wrt America dominance.
If you want to object to me for good, tell me if you would morally support Isis over America and why.


> They don't 'strongly suggest' anything of the sort.

They do, if you contrast Zelensky’s government with a Putin puppet, blaming the first while assuming more acceptable the second. At best you can claim you didn’t intend to suggest it.

> It's absolutely absurd to suggest that every time I raise a criticism about a government decision, I'm calling for them to be deposed.

Where else did I do that? Can you fully quote me?


[i]> No. The paragraph wasn't about Russian soldiers and Putin. It was about The governments of Ukraine, the US and Europe, plus their supporters.

> What about the values of those who can't vote - children, the future generations - do they get a say?

How about the continued exposure of millions of innocent children to Russian atrocities?
[/i]

Poor people bring to life children that they are incapable of taking care of, don’t they have some responsibility for the death/sickness/starvation/misery of their children? Palestinians bring to life children that they are incapable of fully protecting against the oppression of Israelis, don’t they have some responsibility for the death/sickness/starvation/misery of their children exposed to the Israelis’ oppression? So shouldn’t they stop having children?
Ukrainians do not want to be eradicated from their lands nor they want their children to grow up under a Russian dictator capable of committing another Ukrainian genocide like the Holodomor, so they act accordingly. I don’t know if Ukrainians consider Zelensky responsible for having their children killed by the Russians or exposed to a war wanted by Putin, knowing that Zelensky did not submit to Russian demands so far. If they don’t why should I?
BTW, for the third time, wouldn’t this line of reasoning of yours simply support whatever the status quo is (ruling class oppressing working class is a de facto situation right?), since no power (especially authoritarian) can be radically challenged without risking one’s (and often beloved ones’) material well-being and life?


[i]> Negotiations failed, so either the demands were unacceptable and/or the assurances weren’t enough. Since I wasn’t there at the negotiation table, I can only guess from available evidences and plausible reasons that support either cases. I already provided some for both cases. So if assurances weren’t enough at the negotiation table (which I find plausible due to evidences and reasons), then the mistrust was too much. — neomac
That doesn't follow at all. Two parties could trust each other 100% and still not reach agreement on the deal because neither side thinks they have the concession they were looking for. It need have nothing to do with trust.[/i]

I see you continue to raise random accusations based on a surprisingly poor understanding of what I wrote. I took already into account the situation you are mentioning when I wrote “either the demands were unacceptable”. And if you were familiar with propositional logic, you would understand that my argument corresponds to the valid form:
p1. if p or q implies r
p2. p and q
c. r
So it totally follows.

> What I expect them to do is to offer concessions and make demands in the same way any party to a negotiation would.

What concessions and what demands do you expect them to do wrt Putin’s?


> If America's intention in supplying weapons is to make a profit, then one cannot say their help is moral, even if their action accidentally assists a moral cause.

This is why I wasn’t talking about intentions but about moral reasons. I don’t need to assume that the US leaders are acting out of moral intentions. All I claimed is that there are moral reasons to support Ukraine. I don’t think that in a negotiation between leaders of competing powers what counts is how adequate their intentions are wrt to their moral reasons for the simple reason that even if the intentions were genuine, it’s still possible that there is no workable agreement based on moral reasons and moral responsibility ascriptions, as this 180 page thread suggests. So what counts is reliability and fairness of the demands. Another reason why assessing morality of a choice or action on the basis of how morally genuine an intention is is not decisive, it’s because there are unintentional consequences (I will come back to this in a bit).
Besides don’t give for granted that I share your assumptions about how the weapon industry or political propaganda work.

> You agree then that I could very well be determinedly opposed to Putin's expansionism and yet advocate ending the war right now and agreeing to the terms on the table since it's perfectly possible to consider that course of action to be the one which will most effectively bring about an end to that expansionism?

No I disagree. Notice that having the intention to determinedly oppose Putin's expansionism doesn’t mean that your opposition is effective. You could be determinedly opposed to Putin's expansionism while doing something which - against your intentions - actually benefits Putin's expansionist ambitions. Indeed advocating for the acceptance of all Russian actual demands at the negotiation table doesn’t equate to actually opposing Putin’s expansionism, as much as advocating the acceptance of a working class exploitation out of fear of worse consequences in case of rebellion doesn’t equate to actually opposing a de facto working class exploitation. So concessions will not end Putin’s expansionist ambitions in any geopolitical meaningful way, they will just consolidate it.


[i]> if Putin and Russian soldiers kill Ukrainians are immoral, if Ukrainians kill Russian invaders and murderers are moral. — neomac
Agreed. But we were talking about the US, so I don't see the relevance. Western capitalist systems kill and immiserate millions of innocent people. Russian wars kill and immiserate millions of people. Ending one by invoking the other neither helps nor has any moral force. You seemed to think it did, I'm enquiring about that.[/i]

It’s enough to re-read what I wrote because I’ve already addressed this many times already: geopolitical entities per se have no moral agency, they are theoretical abstractions useful to strategically study power dynamics. They are not good for moral responsibility ascriptions. This claim of yours “Western capitalist systems kill and immiserate millions of innocent people” may have some multi-causal plausibility (yet I can not assess it since you didn’t offer any such analysis and you didn’t consider also the millions of people that may prosper under the American system dominance wrt Russian dominance) even if it was correct, it would not suffice for responsibility ascription. For responsibility ascription, we need agency, decision makers. Russia is on war with Ukraine because Putin so decided. I’m not talking about Russian system nor Russian dominance for responsibility ascriptions, I’m talking about Putin deciding to start a war and bomb Ukrainian families and children, threatening a nuclear war, making claims about a new world order and blaming it all on the West. I’m fine if you want to talk about the moral responsibilities of Biden’s or Zelensky’s or EU’s administrations in relation to this war. If you want to talk about capitalism system and Yemen, you have to open another thread. And if you need it to prove your point, then your point is conceptually flawed as I already claimed and argued. The moral force of contrasting Russian’s war in Ukraine precisely depends on Putin’s morally illegitimate aggression of Ukraine. What is the most proper strategic response, for this I defer to people more expert than I am for the main input.


> If Putin's power consolidation was increased bu sanction and NATO involvement in the war, then ought we avoid those things?

If making concessions and avoiding sanctions will consolidate Putin’s power as well as not making concessions and adopting sanctions, I think it’s indifferent which option is chosen. Besides I would distinguish between power consolidation in Russia from power consolidation beyond Russia.
Don’t forget that according to the geopolitical experts Russia is a demographic and economic declining power, and if that is the case, wars around the world and economic sanctions could accelerate Russian decline. And the more Putin becomes aggressive the more reasons the West has to contain Russian expansionism.

> So as far as the moral case is concerned, you concede the point that continuing to fight is not morally advised simply on the grounds of 'opposing Putin's expansionism' since it is a moot point what course of action would best do that.

My point was simply that I’m well aware that there are risks when taking position on such matters. Yet I don’t think that we can take risk-free decisions on such matters, nor we can simply suspend our judgment or action just because we can’t make enough risk-free decisions, if pressed by the events.


> The word 'oppression' already covers that. What you're talking about is ‘suppression'.

Well if you take the meaning of a word based on a dictionary definition, then here is the one I used:
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/oppression?q=oppression
cruel and unfair treatment of people, especially by not giving them the same freedom, rights, etc. is morally defensible when it’s for punishing immoral people.
Don’t waste our time on wording disputes.

[i]> I assume Ukraine demand that the invasion stops.
This is one thing they demand, not the only one though. — neomac
No. I'm sure the current Russian demands don't constitute the full sum of all they'd want either. The point is, they started the war, so it's just self-evident, they'd have a different list of grievances[/i]

Same situation, you just changed words and I do not care about your wording preferences. If one wants to explain why a negotiation fails, then either demands/grievances/expectations/complaints/wishes/concessions/requests/desires/[fill up as you please] are not perceived as acceptable and/or they are not addressed with enough assurance. And an alternative to 2 parties' strategies in terms of demands/grievances/expectations/complaints/wishes/concessions/requests/desires/[fill up as you please], can not possibly coincide with one of 2 parties' strategy.
Don’t waste our time on wording disputes, especially if I abundantly clarified my point.


> You've no idea whose views and demands I considered, since consideration goes on in my head. I only told you the course of action I thought best.

With the word “considering” I’m not referring to a process in your head but to what proves that your third strategy is opposing both Western and Russian expansionism. As you seemed to understand:
"you just repeated Putin’s demands and related blackmails without considering Ukrainian demands at all. — neomac
I know, that's why I said them. Those are the demands on the table at the moment, so of course they're Putin's. The argument was that they don't push Russian expansionism futher. They are the de facto positions already."
Don’t waste our time on wording disputes, especially if I abundantly clarified my point.


> So If I think their standard of living will be considerably worse, then It's a reasonable position to take that involving the US is not worth the benefit.

You can take side in accordance to your beliefs. So do I. Now what?


> So why do you trust those who tell you that continuing to fight is better for the Ukrainian people? Why do you trust those who tell you that life under the terms of a US/European loan system will be better than one under Russian puppet government?

Never made such claims.


If the outcomes of strategic decisions are beyond your expertise, then why do you choose to trust the experts and leaders supporting your current position and not those supporting the alternatives?

I already answered: “So for what strategy is concerned I tend to defer more to the feedback of experts and leaders, and then double-check based on what I find logic or consistent with other sources and background knowledge



[i]> So you are saying that Palestinians should accept Israeli de facto settlements in the West Bank because they are “de facto”? The Talibans didn’t accept any “de facto” Afghan puppet government and took back their control over Afghanistan eventually. The expression "whatever it takes” simply refers to the fact that, in geopolitical strategy, demands and options are not assessed by one party the way their competitor frame them as I said repeatedly. — neomac
No. That's literally the opposite of what I'm saying. I'm saying the actual terms matter. It's not just a question of 'capitulate to any demands to avoid war', it's 'avoid the worst option’.[/i]

What matters to me is what Ukrainians and Western leaders consider the “worst option” in geopolitically significant terms, not what you consider the “worst option” based on a load of assumptions that I find questionable or unintelligible. For example, how does your line of reasoning about de facto situation would apply in the case of the Palestinians or the Talibans? should Palestinians accept Israeli de facto settlements in the West Bank because they are “de facto”? Were the Talibans wrong in refusing to submit to the de facto Puppet regime the Americans put in Afghanistan?
Count Timothy von Icarus April 11, 2022 at 18:02 #680465
Reply to boethius

This is a pretty selective memory of the Bush era. News programs constantly called Bush out on the duplicity involved in making the case for the Iraq War. There was a major investigation into the torture program and attempts to try those responsible. Go watch old episodes of the Daily Show circa 2005-2008; it is wall to wall coverage of the Bush administration's infamies.

A number of Americans have been sentenced to long prison terms for improper use of force in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the most aggregious cases, US prosecutors sought to execute US soldiers for these crimes (e.g., https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmudiyah_rape_and_killings). Which is not to say the system is perfect, far from it, but it's ridiculous to paint the media as giving a blanket pardon to US military actions. Indeed, they often go too far the other way, removing all nuance and turning the leadership into cartoon villains.

Notably, the New York Times ran a full page ad of General Patreus as "General Betray us," but wasn't shut down, and Noam Chomsky hasn't died of polonium poisoning.

Maybe Russia wouldn't be treated as an enemy if they hadn't launched multiple invasions of their neighbors over the last few decades?
boethius April 11, 2022 at 18:30 #680478
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus

Can you cite the comments you're referring to?

But, if I understand correctly, because a few lower-ranked people did face some prosecution, all the people that orchestrated the fake intelligence, torture, mass spying and so on, it's ok that they didn't face any consequences ... because a few lowly grunts were thrown under the bus.

You're really using the daily show pointing out the absurdity, criminality and hypocrisy of the system (and people facing no consequences) as evidence the "system works"?
Manuel April 11, 2022 at 21:57 #680531
Austria’s Nehammer ‘pessimistic’ over Putin’s ‘war logic’

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has said he was “rather pessimistic” about the prospects for diplomacy ending the Ukraine conflict after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Describing Putin as having “massively entered into a logic of war”, Nehammer told reporters following his meeting that he was “rather pessimistic” about the success of negotiations “because peace talks are always very time-intensive while military logic says: ‘Don’t spend too much time and go directly into battle'”.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/10/russia-ukraine-live-news-war-to-slash-ukraines-gdp-by-45
Manuel April 11, 2022 at 21:58 #680532
This still has a long ways to go, ffs. It's already been way too long. Each day these sanctions will bite more and more and then, we may see the Russians go crazy.

Not good.
SophistiCat April 11, 2022 at 22:22 #680533
WMD news:

  • Eduard Basurin, press secretary of the DNR (the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic) military command, said that "chemical troops" will need to be deployed in order to "smoke out" Mariupol defenders.
  • Ramsan Kadyrov, the Chechen strongman, said in his latest video that tactical nukes should be dropped on Kiev and Kharkov if Ukraine does not surrender.


Kadyrov's troops have been taking part in the siege of Mariupol (or so he claims), and for the last several weeks he has been regularly posting videos announcing an imminent fall of Mariupol. There's no reason to take him seriously in this case either. In Russia he is allowed to say and do pretty much anything he wants, and his security forces have also been involved in assassinations abroad. But he has no say over the use of nukes, or for that matter over the general conduct of the war.

But DNR stooge's casual reference to "chemical troops" should be taken seriously. I can see Russia using chem weapons via its proxy forces, which would give it a modicum of plausible deniability.
Manuel April 11, 2022 at 22:42 #680538
Reply to SophistiCat

Well. Maybe. But they surely must have heard that NATO will intervene if they use chemical weapons, or at least, this is what they've stated.

The point is that time is against them (Russia), so either they do something big quickly, or it will get very ugly for them.

I'm surprised that Russia is allowing for other countries to send arms to Ukraine.

Count Timothy von Icarus April 12, 2022 at 02:06 #680556
Reply to boethius
Yes, that's exactly what I was doing. :roll:

Wayfarer April 12, 2022 at 02:15 #680559
[quote=SMH; https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russian-soldiers-kept-women-in-a-basement-for-25-days-nine-are-now-said-to-be-pregnant-20220412-p5actf.html] Russian soldiers kept women in a basement for 25 days; nine are now said to be pregnant.

London: War crimes investigators have uncovered horrific cases of sexual violence committed by Russian troops in Ukraine, including women and girls kept in a Bucha basement for 25 days. Ukraine’s official ombudsman for human rights, Lyudmyla Denisova, says nine of them are now pregnant.

Denisova said she had recorded multiple cases of rape, torture and abuse by Kremlin forces in Bucha, outside Kyiv, and in other Ukrainian towns as the full extent of the Russian brutality spurred calls for President Vladimir Putin to be charged with crimes against humanity.[/quote]
Count Timothy von Icarus April 12, 2022 at 02:15 #680560
Reply to SophistiCat
Yeah, his photos in combat gear "near the fighting" were sourced to inside Russia. Pretty hilarious.

NATO had held back on higher end aid. My guess is that chemical weapons would lead to more of that being released, e.g., fighters from Poland that have been offered, more drones (the Turkish drones have caused Russia no amount of grief and the US certainly could offer vastly superior drones in large numbers, but this hasn't happened because it would likely seem like too much of a provocation, plus they don't want any tech leaking), potentially more tanks, more long range missile systems.

I think there is a fear here that releasing too much aid might lead to very negative outcomes. If Russia's reorganized push with what are generally considered to now be mostly low combat effectiveness soldiers (low morale, large number of casualties, large amount of hardware lost) collapses, more weaponry could encourage Ukraine to push into areas lost in 2014.

This could have the opposite effect of what NATO wants if Putin feels his legitimacy is threatened by these losses. Russia certainly has the capability to continue the war long term (increased conscription, etc). This might result in political chaos in Moscow, but that's not really something NATO wants, or it could lead to even more unhinged attacks on civilian targets.

Kind of a balancing act.


Interesting update:


The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the seizure of Mariupol. There are good reasons to question the Russian armed forces’ ability to do so and their ability to use regenerated combat power effectively despite a reported simplification of the Russian command structure. This update, which we offer on a day without significant military operations on which to report, attempts to explain and unpack some of the complexities involved in making these assessments.

We discuss below some instances in which American and other officials have presented information in ways that may inadvertently exaggerate Russian combat capability. We do not in any way mean to suggest that such exaggeration is intentional. Presenting an accurate picture of a military’s combat power is inherently difficult. Doing so from classified assessments in an unclassified environment is especially so. We respect the efforts and integrity of US and allied officials trying to help the general public understand this conflict and offer the comments below in hopes of helping them in that task.

We assess that the Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in Donbas within the next few months. Russia will likely continue to throw badly damaged and partially reconstituted units piecemeal into offensive operations that make limited gains at great cost.[1] The Russians likely will make gains nevertheless and may either trap or wear down Ukrainian forces enough to secure much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but it is at least equally likely that these Russian offensives will culminate before reaching their objectives, as similar Russian operations have done.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) reported on April 8 that the Russian armed forces have lost 15-20 percent of the “combat power” they had arrayed against Ukraine before the invasion.[2] This statement is somewhat (unintentionally) misleading because it uses the phrase “combat power” loosely. The US DoD statements about Russian “combat power” appear to refer to the percentage of troops mobilized for the invasion that are still in principle available for fighting—that is, that are still alive, not badly injured, and with their units. But “combat power” means much more than that. US Army doctrine defines combat power as “the total means of destructive, constructive, and information capabilities that a military unit or formation can apply at a given time.”[3] It identifies eight elements of combat power: “leadership, information, command and control, movement and maneuver, intelligence, fires, sustainment, and protection.”[4] This doctrinal definition obviously encompasses much more than the total number of troops physically present with units and is one of the keys to understanding why Russian forces have performed so poorly in this war despite their large numerical advantage. It is also the key to understanding the evolving next phase of the war.

US DoD statements that Russia retains 80-85 percent of its original mobilized combat power unintentionally exaggerate the Russian military’s current capabilities to fight. Such statements taken in isolation are inherently ambiguous, for one thing. They could mean that 80-85 percent of the Russian units originally mobilized to fight in Ukraine remain intact and ready for action while 15-20 percent have been destroyed. Were that the case, Russia would have tremendous remaining combat power to hurl against Ukraine. Or, they could mean that all the Russian units mobilized to invade Ukraine have each suffered 15-20 percent casualties, which would point to a greatly decreased Russian offensive capacity, as such casualty levels severely degrade the effectiveness of most military units. The reality, as DoD briefers and other evidence make clear, is more complicated, and paints a grim picture for Russian commanders contemplating renewing major offensive operations.

The dozens of Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) that retreated from around Kyiv likely possess combat power that is a fraction of what the numbers of units or total numbers of personnel with those units would suggest. Russian units that have fought in Ukraine have taken fearful damage.[5] As the US DoD official noted on April 8, “We've seen indications of some units that are literally, for all intents and purposes, eradicated. There's just nothing left of the BTG except a handful of troops, and maybe a small number of vehicles, and they're going to have to be reconstituted or reapplied to others. We've seen others that are, you know, down 30 percent manpower.”[6] Units with such levels of losses are combat ineffective—they have essentially zero combat power. A combination of anecdotal evidence and generalized statements such as these from US and other NATO defense officials indicates that most of the Russian forces withdrawn from the immediate environs of Kyiv likely fall into the category of units that will remain combat ineffective until they have been reconstituted.

Reconstituting these units to restore any notable fraction of their nominal power would take months. The Russian military would have to incorporate new soldiers bringing the units back up toward full strength and then allow those soldiers time to integrate into the units. It would also have to allow those units to conduct some unit training, because a unit is more than the sum of individual soldiers and vehicles. The combat power of a unit results in no small part from its ability to operate as a coherent whole rather than a group of individuals. It takes time even for well-trained professional soldiers to learn how to fight together, and Russian soldiers are far from well-trained. The unit would also have to replace lost and damaged vehicles and repair those that are reparable. The unit’s personnel would need time to regain their morale and will to fight, both badly damaged by the humiliation of defeat and the stress and emotional damage of the losses they suffered. These processes take a long time. They cannot be accomplished in a few weeks, let alone the few days the Russian command appears willing to grant. Russian forces withdrawn from around Kyiv and going back to fight in Donbas in the next few weeks, therefore, will not have been reconstituted. At best, they will have been patched up and filled out not with fresh soldiers but with soldiers drawn from other battered and demoralized units. A battalion’s worth of such troops will not have a battalion’s worth of combat power.

The Russian armed forces likely have few or no full-strength units in reserve to deploy to fight in Ukraine because of a flawed mobilization scheme that cannot be fixed in the course of a short war. The Russians did not deploy full regiments and brigades to invade Ukraine—with few exceptions as we have previously noted. They instead drew individual battalions from many different regiments and brigades across their entire force. We have identified elements of almost every single brigade or regiment in the Russian Army, Airborne Troops, and Naval Infantry involved in fighting in Ukraine already. The decision to form composite organizations drawn from individual battalions thrown together into ad hoc formations degraded the performance of those units, as we have discussed in earlier reports.[7] It has also committed the Russian military to replicating that mistake for the duration of this conflict, because there are likely few or no intact regiments or brigades remaining in the Russian Army, Airborne Forces, or Naval Infantry. The Russians have no choice but to continue throwing individual battalions together into ad hoc formations until they have rebuilt entire regiments and brigades, a process that will likely take years.


ISW has been spot on about the course of the war so far. They now see good conditions for counter attacks to retake Kherson, while the biggest threat will come from the axis further east.

Notably though, Russia kept its official conscription figures fairly normal, which was a good sign for peace, but now apparently they are doing behind the scenes conscription, including on the spot conscription at road blocks.

Russia has a 20-24 population of 3.45 million, versus 9.5 million for the US. It boggles the mind to think that the leadership is so into their groupthink that they think they can hide a major war with 15,000+ KIA and 40,000 casualties from the public long term, especially if they are using older reservists and more conscription. It's the equivalent of six times all the fatalities from Iraq and Afghanistan over twenty years occuring in just two months already.
Wayfarer April 12, 2022 at 04:45 #680579
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
It boggles the mind to think that the leadership is so into their groupthink....


Very early on, a number of commentators observed that Putin's major problem was in believing his own propaganda. His web of deceit is now so vast that he himself is entangled in it. It comes from sorrounding yourself with people who always tell you that you're right while insulating yourself from any real contact with evidence to the contrary.
ssu April 12, 2022 at 06:04 #680586
Quoting Benkei
Putin will have to come to the table at some point, he can't occupy Ukraine and large areas are vehemently opposed to the Russians.

At least he has had no troubles of doing that partly for 8 years. So why take some more?

There's no reason why he now would have to stop. Do notice the logic behind terrorizing people to move away from their homes. Will he stop because of sanctions??? Lol.

The only way Putin is going to come to the negotiation table is if a) Ukraine gives in to his demand or b) he has similar success in the Donbas as he had encircling Kyiv.

Quoting Benkei
Other than calling Putin names, the US hasn't helped Ukraine either except making money off the militarization of Ukrainian society. We do know that when negotiations need to happen, France (and Germany and Italy) are the only countries that haven't disqualified themselves as negotiation partners.


So what's the difference with France?

French President Emmanuel Macron has moved to extend €300 million ($337 million) of aid and military equipment to Ukraine, according to French daily Le Monde.

According to the report, which came on the second day of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine, France will also freeze Russian officials' assets within the country.

President Emmanuel Macron on Friday announced at the country’s national assembly the delivery of additional €300 million in aid, along with military equipment, to Ukraine and pledged to undertake steps in the NATO framework "to protect the soil of our Baltic and Romanian allies."

In a message sent to lawmakers explaining France’s response to the Ukrainian invasion, Macron said "nothing will be neglected in matters of aid" to Kyiv.


Oh yes, they don't publicly tell just what weapons they are given to Ukraine. So perhaps that's the diplomatic touch worth of praise.
Olivier5 April 12, 2022 at 06:38 #680591
Quoting Manuel
I'm surprised that Russia is allowing for other countries to send arms to Ukraine.


No way they can prevent it.
Olivier5 April 12, 2022 at 06:39 #680592
Quoting ssu
they don't publicly tell just what weapons they are given to Ukraine.


That's because they don't give much, I believe.
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 07:24 #680599
If...

Quoting Christoffer
Russia already has the groundwork to enable these problems,


...and...

Quoting Christoffer
the US doesn't


...then how come...

Quoting Christoffer
We see the behaviors of corruption and radical movements of people under Trump.


..., when the lack the necessary 'groundwork' for those behaviours to emerge. And furthermore, if it's true that...

Quoting Christoffer
if people "don't care about politics", they could wake up in a world similar to places like Russia.


...then the 'groundwork' you spoke of with regards to Russia appears to be completely irrelevant as you're suggesting that the US could end up like Russia despite having none of those factors.

Quoting Christoffer
I'm talking about how Russia's political groundwork for authoritarianism can happen in other nations


No. You haven't once mentioned Russia's 'political groundwork' occurring in other nations. The factors you've provided for the US's descent into 'Russian-ness' are "the behaviours of corruption and radical movements of people under Trump" (which you admit occurred despite the US not having any of Russia's political groundwork yet) and that "people "don't care about politics"". You've given no other factors related to any of Russia's political groundwork.

Quoting Christoffer
How? Websites, newspapers and social media spreading 'misinformation' have been increasingly banned since Covid times. — Isaac


Yes, they spread misinformation in a time of crisis. The problem is the uneducated with a megaphone spreading misinformation that hurts other people. How many people died during this pandemic due to misinformation telling them not to get vaccinated?



Quoting Christoffer
Naysayers have been ridiculed, de-platformed, sacked — Isaac


That's not what I've seen. The ones that have been ridiculed, de-platformed or sacked have all taken part in spreading dangerous misinformation or acted with such disregard for safety, like nurses not caring for protocols when people risk dying around them.

Protests have been met with militarised police under emergency powers. — Isaac


The large gatherings who didn't have permission during a time when large gatherings need to be avoided? People who don't understand how a pandemic works, who don't understand that large gatherings could create super-spreading events which result in people outside of this gathering getting killed by the consequence of such a super-spreading event, don't know what the fuck they're talking about. To be blind to how pandemics work is to ignore facts.


I didn't ask about the reasons for the response, I asked about what more you wanted people to have done. You seemed to think the response to 'misinformation' was dangerously lacklustre. I was pointing out that it was a more robust response than any we've seen since McCarthyism. You said you wanted it to be...

Quoting Christoffer
At least on par with the vocal minority advocating for extreme nationalism, racism, antivaccine, conspiracy theories etc


It is. Websites have been banned, social media is being filtered, searched engines have buried Russian output on the war, there's a generally hostile environment for anyone not toeing the general anti-Russian line... I'm asking you what more you expect the 'moral majority' to do.

Isaac April 12, 2022 at 07:24 #680600
Quoting neomac
Also fighting over money can be moral of course,


So what factor (or factors) governs the difference?

Quoting neomac
You just keep claiming that “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another” without providing evidences and while being contradicted by the evidences: Ukrainian families got exterminated by Russian soldiers, no Ukrainian ruling class member has exterminated those families.


Are you suggesting that the policies of the ruling classes have resulted in no deaths?

Quoting neomac
You could claim that one is morally more justified in fighting X over Y, because X is more oppressive, but that doesn’t equate to claiming that one has no moral reason to fight Y.


Yes. Which would probably be why I didn't make such a claim.

Quoting neomac
And what is the relation between Russian rich people being in a luxury yachts, while Russian children starve do death in their rubbish, with the fact that Russian soldiers are exterminating Ukrainian families and children?


Very little. Which is probably why I didn't restrict my assessment to the Russian ruling elite, nor the Russian poor.

Quoting neomac
if Zelensky’s moral stand and choices are to be assessed over a de facto situation or actual terms on the table (as you claim), then I don’t see why your moral stand and choices about this war can’t be assessed based on the actual clash between 2 de facto dominant powers, as you frame this war.


Because our choices aren't limited to a de facto 2 clash between dominant powers. Which is probably why I have never suggested they are.

Quoting neomac
I talked about math because you talked about multi-causal theory and multi causal theories would allow to evaluate the exact or statistical relevance of a cause in a given output.


How?

Quoting neomac
No single dimension is a priori sufficient for a moral assessment.


So you keep saying, yet you seem quite clear on what dimensions are not to be considered. Perhaps a quick run down of these multiple dimensions would help?

Quoting neomac
If you want to object to me for good, tell me if you would morally support Isis over America and why.


I already did, right at the beginning of the paragraph you're supposedly critiquing.

Quoting neomac
if you contrast Zelensky’s government with a Putin puppet, blaming the first while assuming more acceptable the second.


Again, how on earth do you get from the notion that a puppet government wouldn't be so bad as to be worth thousands of lives to "I think we ought to depose Zelensky". It's just an insane leap of inference.

Quoting neomac
> It's absolutely absurd to suggest that every time I raise a criticism about a government decision, I'm calling for them to be deposed.

Where else did I do that? Can you fully quote me?


I just did.

Quoting neomac
Poor people bring to life children that they are incapable of taking care of, don’t they have some responsibility for the death/sickness/starvation/misery of their children?


Yes. I presume that would be why they try with every ounce of their soul to feed and protect those children.

Quoting neomac
Palestinians bring to life children that they are incapable of fully protecting against the oppression of Israelis, don’t they have some responsibility for the death/sickness/starvation/misery of their children exposed to the Israelis’ oppression?


Yes. Again probably why they try so desperately hard to protect them.

Quoting neomac
So shouldn’t they stop having children?


That's one solution, yes. Not the only solution, clearly.

Quoting neomac
Ukrainians do not want to be eradicated from their lands nor they want their children to grow up under a Russian dictator capable of committing another Ukrainian genocide like the Holodomor, so they act accordingly.


The former is true, the latter is a strategic judgement. I'm not speaking to a Ukrainian so I can't interrogate their reasoning. I'm speaking to a non-Ukrainian, form the comfort of their non-bombed home and asking why they are supporting continued fighting so fervently.

Quoting neomac
BTW, for the third time, wouldn’t this line of reasoning of yours simply support whatever the status quo is (ruling class oppressing working class is a de facto situation right?), since no power (especially authoritarian) can be radically challenged without risking one’s (and often beloved ones’) material well-being and life?


Then for the third time, no, the outcome continued war is compared to matters.

Quoting neomac
if you were familiar with propositional logic, you would understand that my argument corresponds to the valid form:
p1. if p or q implies r
p2. p and q
c. r
So it totally follows.


What? You've not labelled p, q or r so I can't possibly use this.

Quoting neomac
> What I expect them to do is to offer concessions and make demands in the same way any party to a negotiation would.

What concessions and what demands do you expect them to do wrt Putin’s?


Concessions might be things like - independence for Donbas and Crimea, keeping Ukraine out of NATO (or keeping US weapons out of Ukraine), independent monitoring of far-right groups in Ukraine, consultation on economic ties with Europe which might impinge heavily of Russian trade interests.

Demands might be things like - an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of forces from Ukraine, submission to war crimes investigations, adherence to the full independence of Donbas (and possibly Crimea, if they can win that)

It's not difficult to think of options, I'm sure there's more.

Quoting neomac
I don’t need to assume that the US leaders are acting out of moral intentions. All I claimed is that there are moral reasons to support Ukraine.


But I support Ukraine. So does everyone writing here. We disagree about how. Are you claiming there are moral reasons to back particular strategies?

Whenever I talk about strategy you switch to intention, when I talk about intention you say it's about 'moral reasons' when I talk about morality you defer back to tactics again. You don't seriously think that looks anything other than completely disingenuous do you?

Quoting neomac
It’s enough to re-read what I wrote because I’ve already addressed this many times already: geopolitical entities per se have no moral agency


Fine. Replace all my uses of US, NATO and Europe with the names of their current leaders and influences and then answer the questions.

Quoting neomac
If making concessions and avoiding sanctions will consolidate Putin’s power as well as not making concessions and adopting sanctions, I think it’s indifferent which option is chosen.


Not what I asked.

Quoting neomac
My point was simply that I’m well aware that there are risks when taking position on such matters. Yet I don’t think that we can take risk-free decisions on such matters, nor we can simply suspend our judgment or action just because we can’t make enough risk-free decisions, if pressed by the events.


Again, not even addressing the question I actually asked.

Quoting neomac
cruel and unfair treatment of people, especially by not giving them the same freedom, rights, etc. is morally defensible when it’s for punishing immoral people.


So you think punishing immoral people is unfair?

Quoting neomac
If one wants to explain why a negotiation fails, then either demands/grievances/expectations/complaints/wishes/concessions/requests/desires/[fill up as you please] are not perceived as acceptable and/or they are not addressed with enough assurance. And an alternative to 2 parties' strategies in terms of demands/grievances/expectations/complaints/wishes/concessions/requests/desires/[fill up as you please], can not possibly coincide with one of 2 parties' strategy.


There cannot always be an alternative, otherwise negotiations never end. At some point in time the agreement has to coincide with both parties' strategy.

Quoting neomac
> So If I think their standard of living will be considerably worse, then It's a reasonable position to take that involving the US is not worth the benefit.

You can take side in accordance to your beliefs. So do I. Now what?


Well, you could start by refraining from referring to my beliefs as 'preposterous', if you accept that they're just beliefs.

Quoting neomac
> So why do you trust those who tell you that continuing to fight is better for the Ukrainian people? Why do you trust those who tell you that life under the terms of a US/European loan system will be better than one under Russian puppet government?

Never made such claims.


Good. So are they?

Quoting neomac
If the outcomes of strategic decisions are beyond your expertise, then why do you choose to trust the experts and leaders supporting your current position and not those supporting the alternatives?

I already answered: “So for what strategy is concerned I tend to defer more to the feedback of experts and leaders, and then double-check based on what I find logic or consistent with other sources and background knowledge”


That's not an answer. All we can ever do on a site like this is enquire about people's reasons for holding the views they hold. The entire enterprise if pointless otherwise. If you're going to answer "because of some reasons", then we might as well give up here. I'm asking about what those reasons are, I assumed you had some.

Quoting neomac
What matters to me is what Ukrainians and Western leaders consider the “worst option” in geopolitically significant terms


Why? Why not, for example, what the various military and foreign policy experts consider the “worst option” in geopolitically significant terms? Or what the various political commentators consider the “worst option” in geopolitically significant terms? Why put your faith in the Ukrainian leadership and the Western powers' leadership?

SophistiCat April 12, 2022 at 07:24 #680601
Quoting Manuel
Well. Maybe. But they surely must have heard that NATO will intervene if they use chemical weapons, or at least, this is what they've stated.


Nah, NATO will not intervene over an alleged use of chemical weapons (which Russia will, of course, deny or blame on Ukrainians themselves). They've been careful this time about not setting any red lines. Even Biden, loose cannon that he is, has consistently been saying that US would not intervene under any circumstances whatsoever. "Dire consequences" is as far as anyone would commit, which would likely amount to nothing more dire than a nonbinding UN resolution.
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 07:25 #680602
Reply to ssu
Yet now we do have that bloody civil war of the former Soviet Union.

This is what I’ve been thinking.
This war along with all the others involving previous members of the USSR are fallout from the collapse of the USSR.

I see EU, or NATO expansion as a side show to this. Although it might act as a catalyst. Also I expect the US is aware of this.
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 07:29 #680603
Reply to SophistiCat There are reports of Sarin gas being dropped from drones over Mariapol last night(11/04/22).
I agree, NATO won’t act on this if it’s proven.
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 07:48 #680605
Quoting ssu
At least he has had no troubles of doing that partly for 8 years. So why take some more?

There's no reason why he now would have to stop. Do notice the logic behind terrorizing people to move away from their homes. Will he stop because of sanctions??? Lol.


This is a common tactic. Ignore disagreement over premises and then act with faux shock at the apparent disagreement in conclusion. It's about as subtle as a brick.

If Putin held ,say, Crimea against the will of the population purely by terrorising them, then you'd be surprised anyone would question his ability to do it some more.

But since that premise is disputed, your surprise over the disputed conclusion is absurd.

It's perfectly reasonable to conclude that Putin could not (and would not even attempt) to hold the whole of Ukraine because its perfectly reasonable to believe he's yet to demonstrate such an ability. You might well not believe that, but your disagreement doesn't make alternative views ridiculous.
Benkei April 12, 2022 at 08:44 #680627
Quoting ssu
At least he has had no troubles of doing that partly for 8 years. So why take some more?

There's no reason why he now would have to stop. Do notice the logic behind terrorizing people to move away from their homes. Will he stop because of sanctions??? Lol.

The only way Putin is going to come to the negotiation table is if a) Ukraine gives in to his demand or b) he has similar success in the Donbas as he had encircling Kyiv.


They weren't in a costly war for 8 years. Sanctions obviously don't deter, they've never done that and basically act as a mechanism for collective punishment that kill a lot of people (Israel - Palestine, Cuba, Iraq are prime examples) and in some cases (like now Russia but also Palestine and Cuba) I'd even argue they rise to the level of a blockade.

In any case, at some point the costs don't outweigh the (potential) benefits any more. I would suspect that if Mariopol falls and control over the Donbass region would be obtained, that that too would count as a victory to him and would have him move to the negotiation table.

Quoting ssu
So what's the difference with France?


France has already recognised that Russia does have security interests in the region, which a lot of people keep pretending don't exist because "sovereignty". The US only communicates positions, complains about crimes it regularly commits itself and makes childish insults everybody that knows anything is happy to ignore. And in any case it does not have a real interest in the region other than its insane imperialist ambition to have a sphere of influence across the world, which we shouldn't be supporting to begin with. Both the EU and Russia have a shared security interest in the region where stability and peace are preferable over war. That shouldn't include the US. It shouldn't have any business here but Europeans have been only too happy to rely on US military power. That has to stop. Finally, Russia and the EU have an important shared history and we aren't under Nazi-rule largely thanks to them. There's plenty of common ground, which Macron understands and has stated several times.
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 08:44 #680628
Quoting Punshhh
There are reports of Sarin gas being dropped from drones over Mariapol last night(11/04/22).


As far as I can tell those reports come from tweets by the Azov battalion.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1513603720646467589?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Do you have any reliable sources?
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 09:57 #680679
Reply to Isaac No, just the media reports and the Azov video.
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 10:09 #680687
Quoting Punshhh
No, just the media reports and the Azov video.


I see. It's just that the latest from American officials was that



Quoting https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-using-declassified-intel-fight-info-war-russia-even-intel-isnt-rock-rcna23014
there is no evidence Russia has brought any chemical weapons near Ukraine


I was wondering if that had changed.
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 10:26 #680697
Reply to Isaac You know the problem with evidence, like proof, is how do you prove it.
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 12:50 #680728
Reply to Punshhh

Indeed. But if the source of a claim is a far-right organisation with a history of anti-Russian activism, it might be worth mentioning that when presenting their evidence against Russia?

As I've said to @ssu earlier, if a common Russian propaganda tactic is to claim Western anti-Russian bias clouds the facts, it's hardly helpful to give them ammunition to that effect. A Russian source claiming Ukrainian intent to use chemical weapons would, quite rightly, be treated with deep scepticism. If we don't apply the same principle to a far-right, anti-Russian source saying the same of Russia, then we're literally playing into the hands of Putin's propaganda by acting out the role of 'anti-Russian, biased propagandists' that he's made for us.
frank April 12, 2022 at 13:14 #680733
Reply to Isaac
Confirmation from multiple sources is usually given weight.
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 13:26 #680736
Quoting frank
Confirmation from multiple sources is usually given weight.


Cool. That's why I was asking about the other sources for this claim. Do you have them?
frank April 12, 2022 at 13:30 #680739
Quoting Isaac
frank

Cool. That's why I was asking about the other sources for this claim. Do you have them?


I don't think there are any yet. They're looking since the Russians already threatened to use chem weapons and they have a history of using them.
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 13:36 #680741
Quoting frank
I don't think there are any yet.


Well then your suggestion that...

Quoting frank
Confirmation from multiple sources is usually given weight


...seems off. Claims from a single biased source that the US were hiding biological weapons in Ukraine were, quite understandably, given quite vitriolic short shrift. Claims that Russia are planning to use chemical weapons, from no less partisan a source, are discussed as meaningful news.

It sounds a lot more like evidence which conforms to the zeitgeist is given more weight, no?

Quoting frank
the Russians already threatened to use chem weapons


Well, that adds some weight doesn't it. What are your "multiple sources" for that?
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 13:37 #680743
Reply to Isaac I’ll remember that if I present their evidence against Russia.
frank April 12, 2022 at 13:40 #680744
Quoting Isaac
It sounds a lot more like evidence which conforms to the zeitgeist is given more weight, no?


Ok.
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 13:42 #680745
Reply to Isaac You do realise that Russia can and will use chemical weapons with impunity, right?
For two reasons, it is what they have previously demonstrated to do, it’s in their playbook and they are safe behind a veil of plausible deniability.

They know that NATO won’t respond, so why not?
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 13:58 #680746
Quoting Punshhh
You do realise that Russia can and will use chemical weapons with impunity, right?
For two reasons, it is what they have previously demonstrated to do, it’s in their playbook and they are safe behind a veil of plausible deniability.


Yes. I agree.

The problem is this...

Russia says it's not the aggressor, not evil because blah, blah, blah

The West says Russia is the aggressor and evil because... well, they are.

But the West then goes on to exaggerate, decontextualize, and outright lie to make Russia out to be even more the aggressor, even more evil than there is sufficient evidence to show.

Russia says "see how the West fabricate and propagandize to make us look aggressive and evil", which there's no denying we do.

Voilà. Waters successfully muddied. Now it looks like it's an open question who the aggressor is depending on whose propaganda you believe.

And it's useful idiots repeating the excessive claims who've allowed that strategy.
Count Timothy von Icarus April 12, 2022 at 14:07 #680748
Poland is deploying top tier banter against Russia in Ukraine.

User image
a caged bird summary

Maybe they can call on the Holy Mother to lead another Miracle of the Vistula, only a bit further East this time. If Russia hates NATO, imagine how much they'd hate a renewed Intermarium... You'd think ideas like that were in the graveyard of history, but given how Putin has so rapidly isolated Russia and made it reliant on China, it seems the "Tartar Yolk" might be making a comeback too. Maybe the Balkan nations would find it easier to negotiate in the EU with Germany and France under a unified, ceremonial Hapsburg state? I hear there is a surviving heir. It would make geography easier...

If I was Ukraine and really wanted to get under Russia's history obsessed skin, I'd rename the country something like "The Federal Republic of Kyivian Rus."
Merkwurdichliebe April 12, 2022 at 14:44 #680763
Quoting Isaac
So the first task is to determine which cases are black and white and which aren't.

Is that decision black and white?


It's actually a question of absolute morality. Seems unlikely regarding the global geopolitical stage.

Count Timothy von Icarus April 12, 2022 at 15:00 #680766
Reply to Punshhh

They could respond. Aid to Ukraine so far is mostly only usable defensively. Anti-tank missile systems are far less effective when used offensively. NATO could supply systems that would make seizing Crimea more likely, or at least enough anti-ship missiles to make supplying it by sea untenable.

Poland's attempted donation of MiGs for example, or predator drones. Hell, basic training time for the F-15 for experienced pilots that would allow them to use stand off weapons to down Russian aircraft is even feasible. There is a lot more the West could do to ruin Russia's day, even without supplying manpower.

Giving Ukraine longer range missiles and technical assistance using them would make these multi-mile long convoys into death traps and greatly reduce the likelyhood that Russia can get its new offensive rolling. They have pretty garbage anti-missile defense. The AA in general isn't looking to hot either given the Ukrainian raid on Belgorod, the continued action of the Ukrainian air force, or the fact that Israel flew 3,000+ sorties through their AA network in Syria in just one year without a single loss, hitting with impunity, often with no evidence of early warning reaching targets (the F-35 seems to be doing its job on some of these).

Even aside from that, they could give Ukraine more armor. Their use of guided artillery is absolutely pounding Russian tank columns:

https://youtu.be/PQ3R6bEB5RE

https://youtu.be/icSJPqkzupI

This won't work near as well on the offensive, since Russian tanks (should) be digging in instead of parking as a massive target for artillery. We haven't seen that to date, but you have to assume someone competent would start a change in tactics.

In order to retake Kherson and Mariupol, they'll need more IFVs and tanks, which NATO could provide on larger numbers. That they haven't I think beliefs fears about Russia doubling down on the invasion of they begin losing territory. However, their actions against civilians in areas they've held is probably tipping support to send more armored vehicles.

Isaac April 12, 2022 at 15:44 #680777
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
There is a lot more the West could do to ruin Russia's day, even without supplying manpower.

Giving Ukraine longer range missiles and technical assistance using them would make these multi-mile long convoys into death traps and greatly reduce the likelyhood that Russia can get its new offensive rolling. They have pretty garbage anti-missile defense.


Sure, because Russia's anti-missile defense is the only issue to worry about when one global superpower provides weapons to attack another global superpower with enough range to reach into their territory. Shall we insult his mother as well, I don't think we've quite done enough yet to really rile up the nuclear armed psychopath. Did you learn diplomacy from a fucking pack of football hooligans?
Count Timothy von Icarus April 12, 2022 at 15:51 #680778
Reply to Isaac
Russia
Global superpower

Might want to rethink that. They couldn't support their advances more than 40 miles from their border. This isn't 1975.

reach into their territory

Given Soviet era helicopters have been able to make it through the vaunted Russian AA to hit strategic targets in urban areas across the border, I don't know if this is exactly a sea change. NATO had plenty of leverage to keep Ukraine from using the missiles on Russia. They're clearly getting fed extremely accurate intelligence. The US basically published Russia's exact invasion plan before it started as a way to dissuade them, and AWACS are likely painting every Russian aircraft as it takes off. Hence the case of the missing Russian airforce and all the MANPAD shootdowns.

Also, it'd still be a good deal less than what Russia did in Vietnam to counter the US, or what China did in Korea. Russia will kick and scream about their nukes regardless because it's now the only thing keeping them relevant, but given the state of the rest of their military, and given the US now had ship portable missiles that have successfully shot down ICBMs (and which work with the Aegis on-land launchers they have all over Europe), I don't think they think they are in a particularly good place to use that threat.

Also, what are you going to do, let Russia invade all of their neighbors because they will threaten to attack civilians with nukes every time they lose a war?

It was Putin's choice to reenact the Winter War for his own ego.
ssu April 12, 2022 at 15:52 #680779
Quoting Benkei
They weren't in a costly war for 8 years.

That low intensity war with Ukraine since 2014 wasn't cheap. And the about 13 000 casualties before this invasion tells that there obviously was a war.

Naturally without the present intensity.

Quoting Benkei
In any case, at some point the costs don't outweigh the (potential) benefits any more. I would suspect that if Mariopol falls and control over the Donbass region would be obtained, that that too would count as a victory to him and would have him move to the negotiation table.

I don't think Putin views this war from a cost / benefit stance were costs and benefits would be economic or monetary. Because then it really doesn't make any sense. No, I think he views this conflict like how he talks about it. This is his legacy, this is what is what the position of Russia. And in he can go after any opposition because it is undeclared wartime.

So yes, perhaps he'll be happy if he has that firm land bridge to Crimea. But then why not push Ukraine out of the Black Sea and have Odessa too?

Nope. There is the similar logic going now on as went on during the first years of WW1. Then you couldn't stop the war for small changes in the border (or no changes) after masses had been already been killed.

Count Timothy von Icarus April 12, 2022 at 15:57 #680780
Reply to ssu
So yes, perhaps he'll be happy if he has that firm land bridge to Crimea. But then why not push Ukraine out of the Black Sea and have Odessa too?


Their inability to get across the Southern Bug back when they had fresh forces, the heavy casualties and counter attacks they faced there, and the fact that the Neptunes in Odessa make using an amphibious assault likely a suicide mission that will result in an unambiguous mass fatality event.

I imagine it would be pretty hard to get soldiers, no matter how loyal, to countenance even getting on a ship when it's going to have next to no missile defense and going to be facing relatively long range, modern US and UK anti-ship missiles.
ssu April 12, 2022 at 16:01 #680781
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Might want to rethink that. They couldn't support their advances more than 40 miles from their border.

Yep. Russian logistical support is confined to railways. This actually had been known earlier.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Also, it'd still be a good deal less than what Russia did in Vietnam to counter the US, or what China did in Korea.

Somehow we have forgotten how extensively during the Cold War both sides supported their allies. In fact the Soviet Union had a long histrory of deploying Soviet manned crews to help their allies. Peculiarly they did always wear civilian clothes.

The marching style is obvious. But how strange a military parade looks in civilian clothes, even the band. Soviet troops in Cuba, maskirovka-style:
User image

What didn't launch WW3 back then wouldn't likely launch WW3 now.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Their inability to get across the Southern Bug back when they had fresh forces, the heavy casualties and counter attacks they faced there, and the fact that the Neptunes in Odessa make using an amphibious assault likely a suicide mission that will result in an unambiguous mass fatality event.

The primary assault was done on the assumption that Ukrainians wouldn't fight, that it would be somehow a repeat of 2014. Now that's out of the question. And the total withdrawal from the Kyiv area shows that Putin understands that it didn't work.

Isaac April 12, 2022 at 16:06 #680782
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Russia
Global superpower

Might want to rethink that


Quoting https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=russia
For 2022, Russia is ranked 2 of 142 out of the countries considered for the annual GFP review. It holds a PwrIndx* score of 0.0501 (a score of 0.0000 is considered 'perfect'). This entry last updated on 04/09/2022.


...or we could go with the opinion of some random dude off an obscure social media forum...

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
it'd still be a good deal less than what Russia did in Vietnam to counter the US


Yes, 'cos Vietnam is a model we should all be striving for. Napalm anyone?

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
I don't think they think they are in a particularly good place to use that threat.


Well, up to the moment you provide any kind of qualification and position which might give cause to take your ad hoc reckoning seriously, you'd need to provide some credible expert assessment we can look at on that.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
what are you going to do, let Russia invade all of their neighbors because they will threaten to attack civilians with nukes every time they lose a war?


So war or submission are your only options. Turns out you did learn diplomacy from a fucking pack of football hooligans after all.

Isaac April 12, 2022 at 16:23 #680784
Quoting ssu
wouldn't likely launch WW3 now.


Oh well, you should have said earlier! If it isn't likely then you crack on, 'cos 'not likely' is a perfectly good enough probability to work to for a third world war. As long as it's less than 50/50 let's keep pushing that boundary. I mean, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists say

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists:For many years, we and others have warned that the most likely way nuclear weapons might be used is through an unwanted or unintended escalation from a conventional conflict. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought this nightmare scenario to life


...but what do those guys know. We've got some completely unqualified laymen we can consult.
Manuel April 12, 2022 at 16:48 #680787
Reply to Isaac

Took them long enough to say this. They've been really trying to make it seem as if there's almost no chance this can happen here, or a very low chance.

I think it's higher.

But yes, you are correct, these are people that should be taken seriously.
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 16:50 #680789
Reply to Isaac
The problem is this...


I don’t see it as a problem, but rather an inevitability. We and the world have seen what the US gets up to for many years. But in reality that doesn’t figure here. This crisis is between Russia and a previous member state of the USSR. There is a bit of proxy war going on, but what figures larger than that is the attempts to support Ukraine against Russian aggression by NATO. This confrontation was inevitable from the point that Putin decided to rebuild the Russian nation in the image of USSR. NATOs involvement may result in a failure by Russia and the building of a new iron curtain. If NATO hadn’t got involved in this way, a similar, or worse crisis would have developed sooner or later. And an iron curtain rebuilt, but in a different position.

Unless Russia decides to embrace a more peaceful, cooperative, unaggressive course these episodes will continue to the detriment of the Russian people. Now Europe has woken up and will arm themselves again, a new dynamic will evolve and the Russian people will experience a new crisis of identity and governance, as a result of sanctions and a phobia of commercial involvement from the West.
frank April 12, 2022 at 16:55 #680791
Quoting Isaac
..or we could go with the opinion of some random dude off an obscure social media forum...


Russia isn't a superpower, Issac. Read some contemporary political science and get yourself up to speed.
SophistiCat April 12, 2022 at 18:08 #680805
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Notably though, Russia kept its official conscription figures fairly normal, which was a good sign for peace, but now apparently they are doing behind the scenes conscription, including on the spot conscription at road blocks.


In the separatist "republics" they have been forcibly conscripting all military-age males right from the start of the invasion. Many men there are in hiding, afraid to go outside even to buy food. Recruitment patrols grab anyone they can find and take them straight to the barracks. I haven't heard about such things in Russia proper though.
Isaac April 12, 2022 at 18:21 #680807
Quoting Manuel
these are people that should be taken seriously.


Yeah, astonishingly reckless complacency from those advocating escalation. It really highlights for me how it's zeitgeist, not expertise that drives these kinds of opinion.

Reply to Punshhh

That's one way of looking at it. Trouble is, as I'm sure you'll admit, it's only one of many plausible narratives. It's also the one most likely to lead to escalation if it's adopted. So I can't see why anyone would deliberately choose it, even if they feel it's more likely. It's just not a very helpful narrative to propagate

Quoting frank
Read some contemporary political science and get yourself up to speed.


Will do. If you could cite me a good contemporary political science source arguing that Russia is no longer a military super power, I'll get stuck in.

frank April 12, 2022 at 18:30 #680810
Quoting Isaac
Will do. If you could cite me a good contemporary political science source arguing that Russia is no longer a military super power, I'll get stuck in.


I think you're capable of doing a little research.
SophistiCat April 12, 2022 at 18:34 #680811
Reply to Punshhh Yeah, I saw the reports as well. It's unconfirmed at this point. We don't know whether the Russian army even has chemical munitions in its arsenal (poisons that security services have been using for assassinations are a different thing).

It's hard to imagine that the atrocities that the Russians are already committing could be made worse, but I fear that chemical weapons could take them to a new level. Remember the bombing of a theatre in Mariupol where hundreds of women and children were taking shelter? Many died, but many who were hiding in the basement survived and were able to get out. If instead of, or in addition to conventional explosives the theater was hit with chlorine or Sarin, there would be fewer survivors. As we have seen in Syria, these heavier than air gases are terrifyingly efficient at killing large numbers of civilians sheltering underground in cities.
ssu April 12, 2022 at 18:44 #680813
Quoting SophistiCat
I haven't heard about such things in Russia proper though.

Russia may dip into the vast reserves of those that have served their military service. But that would take a month to bring them up to speed. And popularity of the war might dramatically change with that. Not publicly, but through hearsay and kitchen talk, as usually it is in a totalitarian system.

Quoting SophistiCat
It's hard to imagine that the atrocities that the Russians are already committing could be made worse, but I fear that chemical weapons could take them to a new level.
If the bombings of civilians and the killings have forced people to became refugees, then the strategy has worked for Putin.

The escalate to de-escalate can be used when Putin either has gotten the objectives he desires and wants for the Ukrainians to get the message that now is the time to end the war. Or if it going to be a similar mess as with the attempt to encircle Kyiv.

Quoting SophistiCat
As we have seen in Syria, these heavier than air gases are terrifyingly efficient at killing large numbers of civilians sheltering underground in cities.

And if the Syrian example tells us something, it is that many will believe the arguments that it's the Ukrainians using the chemical weapons on their citizens. :vomit:

Isaac April 12, 2022 at 18:45 #680815
Quoting frank
I think you're capable of doing a little research.


Indeed I am. I did a DuckDuckGo search for "is Russia a military superpower"

Hit one

So, we can safely say that Russia isn’t a superpower, right? Let’s look at other opinions.

Some leaders and political scientists, however, still sometimes refer to Russia as a superpower: for instance, in July 2018, Austria’s Chancellor Sebastian Kurz called the summit between Putin and Donald Trump a good sign of “cooperation between two superpowers


Mixed picture, there then.

Hit Two

For 2022, Russia is ranked 2 of 142 out of the countries considered for the annual GFP review. It holds a PwrIndx* score of 0.0501 (a score of 0.0000 is considered 'perfect'). This entry last updated on 04/09/2022.


World Number 2. Not convinced yet...

Hit Three.
What are the 5 super power countries?

Power

United States.
China.
Russia.


Not really the compelling evidence we were after.

Pushing on. Hit Four.

Just stats about their military power showing the US and Russia to be equal in many areas, unequal in others.

Hit Five.

War Proves Russia Is No Longer a Superpower


Ah ha! Jackpot! Yet, "David Von Drehle is a columnist for The Washington Post, where he writes about national affairs and politics from a home base in the Midwest." - Hardly the cutting edge of military analysis, but still - an interesting read

Hit Six.

The US, Russia, and China are considered the world's strongest nations when it comes to military power


Late success seems to be waning...

Shall I go on, or are you going to point me in the 'right' direction?



frank April 12, 2022 at 18:51 #680816
Reply to Isaac
:rofl: Well I thought you could research a topic. I might have been wrong.

You can start with learning what's meant by "superpower."

I'm not continuing this conversation.
SophistiCat April 12, 2022 at 19:09 #680817
Manuel April 12, 2022 at 20:29 #680824
Reply to Isaac

I mean, there should be people around that remember the Cuban Missile Crisis, not just Chomsky.

But it's also cheap votes. It's disgusting. But - nothing new.

I mean, I know the initial shock of this war has blown over - for those of us not in it in real time - but it's far from clear we are out of the woods yet.
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 20:46 #680830
Reply to Isaac
That's one way of looking at it. Trouble is, as I'm sure you'll admit, it's only one of many plausible narratives.

Is there another plausible outcome, I’d like to hear it?

It's also the one most likely to lead to escalation if it's adopted.


It’s not a narrative, or a narrative that may be adopted. It’s an opinion of the likely outcome.

The narrative of NATO is well known. What is adopted is a military and political strategy and one which is largely confidential, I expect.
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 20:52 #680832
Reply to SophistiCat Yes, they will have chlorine barrels I expect. A good way of flushing out whose left after they’ve levelled the city. Just blame Ukrainians,
SophistiCat April 12, 2022 at 21:01 #680835
Quoting ssu
The primary assault was done on the assumption that Ukrainians wouldn't fight, that it would be somehow a repeat of 2014. Now that's out of the question. And the total withdrawal from the Kyiv area shows that Putin understands that it didn't work.


Word is that many of the FSB officers from the 5th Division, the office responsible for Ukraine intelligence, have been fired and may be facing prosecution. If true, this would likely be the biggest purge in the security services since Stalin. The head of the office has been charged with embezzlement and premeditated disinformation. On some level this is encouraging: at least this shows that Putin is aware that he was massively misinformed before the invasion.
Punshhh April 12, 2022 at 21:02 #680837
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus Yes, NATO could do more, I’m not of the opinion that Putin would escalate the nuclear risk. It looks as though NATO has chosen not to do more and hide behind the excuse of the nuclear threat. But of course we don’t have a line into their war room, so it’s guesswork, I’m afraid.
magritte April 12, 2022 at 21:12 #680840
Quoting Manuel
the initial shock of this war has blown over - for those of us not in it in real time - but it's far from clear we are out of the woods yet.


Well after the Cuban missile crisis was over, it was reported that Kennedy and top officials were living in bunkers during the denouement, totally unbeknownst to the naive general population. They were ready to push the red button.

Now, we are in the early stages of this war, with escalation hardly mentioned as far as the West is concerned. But Russia is getting ready to use thermobaric, chemical, biological weapons to annihilate civilian populations after its tanks fail to make sufficiently significant inroads in the Donbas. The Western leaders will then have a big decision to make as far as initiating direct involvement leading to WWIII.
Count Timothy von Icarus April 12, 2022 at 21:27 #680842
Reply to Isaac

You're not helping your case by bringing up an absolute meme site for "military rankings." GFP just shoves arsenals that exist on paper into a spreadsheet and takes no account at all about actual capabilities. E.g.: Are reserves actually trained and able to be mobilized quickly? Is mothballed hardware kept useable or up to date? Can the country supply its own munitions? Can they keep an active, encrypted coms network up? Is investment on paper being embezzled? Does it have a meritocratic leadership system? And most notably here, it takes absolutely zero account of logistics.

For example, an M1 tank can't be judged as a "unit of firepower." A division of the things can burn through half a million gallons of fuel a day. Without well drilled fuel teams and specialized equipment, they become a hell of a lot less effective. Without fuel in general, they become useless outside of dug in positions. There is a reason the US Army mothballed a ton of tanks, and instead is sinking almost a billion into upgrading just 70 tanks.

Outdated hardware is how you end up with all these videos of Russian tank columns spotted by drones getting lit up by artillery and being reduced to smoldering husks without ever engaging the adversary.

Far better to do more with less and have something like the SEPv3, where you have systems to shoot down incoming anti-tank missiles and drones, sensors for knowing if you're subject to laser targeting, and video feeds for drone recon elements that can use AI to locate potential ambush teams so you can light them up from outside line of sight.

More is better is definitely not proving true in modern warfare. This has been true at least since Mole Cricket, where Syria scrambled 100 MiGs only to see 86 shot down, along with more than two dozen SAM batteries destroyed, while not taking down a single Israeli fighter. A numbers based methodology is, frankly, hot garbage. The number of useful tanks is the number you can keep fueled and updated, not the number you have in storage.

Do we really think Syria had one of the most powerful militaries in the world in the run up to their civil war? Egypt has a more 28% more powerful military than Israel and one more powerful than Turkey? Why?

Because the US dumps hardware there as a pass through to defense contractors and because it has a huge number of soldiers due to the military functioning as a gigantic jobs and social stability program? Turkey has been developing its own hardware it can supply itself, including drones that have caused Russia a ton of pain, and bested Russia in a proxy war in 2020 (a conflict that is heating back up in light of perceived Russian weakness). Israel regularly makes its own upgrades to US hardware that the US ends up buying due to superior functionality, and has been involved in no shortage of conflicts the past 20 years. Outside the Sinai insurgency, which is quite small scale, Egypt's institutional experience is in machine gunning groups of protestors and starving Palestinians of supplies.

Not to mention that their methodology would have made Iraq one of the most powerful nations in the world before both Gulf wars.


So war or submission are your only options. Turns out you did learn diplomacy from a fucking pack of football hooligans after all.


Yes, war and submission are the only options when Russian tanks keep rolling into neighboring countries. You know, sort of like they have in Ukraine and Georgia, or Moldova before that(where they still haven't left), or their repeated violent repressions of Eastern Europe's attempts to free themselves from the Russian yolk from 1945 on.
FreeEmotion April 13, 2022 at 00:07 #680859
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
More is better is definitely not proving true in modern warfare. This has been true at least since Mole Cricket, where Syria scrambled 100 MiGs


I am curious to see if anyone supports Syria's right to defend itself against air attacks, or whether the right to defend itself is only for a few select nations.
FreeEmotion April 13, 2022 at 02:19 #680893
Judging from the media lead-up, there is a perfect opportunity now for Ukraine to use chemical weapons with 'impunity'. Not saying that they will, however everyone will believe that the Russians did it, that at least is a fact.

The US and Britain say they are looking into reports that chemical weapons have been used by Russian forces attacking the Ukrainian port of Mariupol.

Ukraine's Azov regiment said three soldiers were injured by "a poisonous substance" in an attack on Monday.

However, no evidence has been presented to confirm the use of chemical weapons.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61077641

What was the CIA term- plausible deniability will work fine. I will really worry when they start talking about tactical nukes - are you and I going to take a trip to Ukraine and see which side they came from, or listen to RT, Sputnik News or CNN, BBC and the other shills. With some things there is no way to know until it is too late, then the damage has been done.

Quoting CNN
The "real reason" for this war, which was never stated, was that after 9/11 America needed to hit someone in the Arab-Muslim world.
ssu April 13, 2022 at 06:02 #680932
Quoting SophistiCat
Word is that many of the FSB officers from the 5th Division, the office responsible for Ukraine intelligence, have been fired and may be facing prosecution. If true, this would likely be the biggest purge in the security services since Stalin. The head of the office has been charged with embezzlement and premeditated disinformation. On some level this is encouraging: at least this shows that Putin is aware that he was massively misinformed before the invasion.

It's likely true.

I've heard this also and many ex-intelligence officers here commentating the war have noted this, so it might be very likely. Putin's personal intelligence service raided the FSB HQ that was responsible for the "near abroad". Usually other countries are handled by the SVR (and of course the GRU), but the near abroad states (as Ukraine) were given to the FSB.
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 06:16 #680935
Did an overview of articles again today. I'm reading a lot Al Jazeera, which seems the only non-Western newspaper to have Ukraine as front page news but that probably doesn't have much of a bias.

The Buenos Aires Herald hasn't written about the war.

The Rio Times barely (Brazil urges independent investigation without "pre-judiging Russia"). Certainly not front page news.

Japan today has one link on the front page but main story is about pregnant women facing abuse in an internship. Neutral reporting.

The Korean Chosun Ilbo does not have it on the front page. Pro-Ukraine reporting.

The Times of India do not report about it on the front page. Reporting appears sympathetic to Russia.

Taipei Times it's not front page news even when selecting the section "world news". Reading western media you'd think Taiwan was in a state of panic because of the precedent this war would create. Except of course, every US war already gave them enough of a precedent to worry about. The Taiwanese don't really care.

In the South African the only Ukrainian news is that the bear Kiryusha has found a new home in the Netherlands. Reporting neutral.

Africanews only reports that the war will affect world trade and that the EU is negotiation with Nigeria for extra gas. Reporting neutral.

Haaretz. Not front page news. An article on Israeli diamond traders funding the Russian effort. Reporting neutral.

Nobody cares except the West, Ukrainians and Russians. The rest of the world knows what the rules are worth. Which is basically nothing because if you have power and you can project it, countries will. For them it's just another war not worth talking about.

What does that say about Western media and politicians? What does it say about the hopes of a rule-based international order?

I think it lays bare the continued Western "exceptionalism" thinking. We still think we're superior, we still think our moralising is what should govern the world and because it isn't universal and we haven't applied it consistently to ourselves as well, our vaunted treaties on wars (The Hague and Geneva conventions), the UN Charter, they're all worth less than the paper they're written on.

EDIT: This is a depressing conclusion to me as a trained human rights lawyer. I had high hopes 20 years ago.
Isaac April 13, 2022 at 07:14 #680951
Quoting frank
You can start with learning what's meant by "superpower."


Britannia:Scholars generally agree on which state is the foremost or unique superpower—for instance, the United Kingdom during the Victorian era and the United States during and immediately after World War II—but often disagree on the criteria that distinguish a superpower from other major powers and, accordingly, on which other states if any should be called superpowers.


'Wrong' experts again, I suspect.

Punshhh April 13, 2022 at 07:17 #680953
Reply to Benkei I wouldn’t be so disheartened. Those treaties were written when the West was the world (as the rest of the world was under developed, or aligned with Western states).

Now in a more global world we need to look to the UN to take a more legalistic and international arbiter role. Most of those countries you cite are not carrying out, or likely to invade their neighbours. I see the invasion of Ukraine as fallout from the disintegration of the USSR. That marauding countries invading their neighbours is largely a thing of the past.

What is more of an issue for civilisation is ideological terrorism. Maoism and Islamic derived extremism. Like a cancer, they can quietly spread and infect nations.

We shouldn’t forget the elephant in the room though, climate change. That global politics etc will soon become concerned with the climate crisis and humanitarian concerns of the population. There will be a lot of barriers going up to prevent mass migration and worst effected countries becoming broken, or failing states.

20th century style wars and international disputes will pale into insignificance as humanity struggles with these new challenges.
Isaac April 13, 2022 at 07:18 #680954
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus

That's all very interesting. What's missing is any reason at all to believe you above the experts at the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Or indeed. Chatham House...

Bettina Renz, School of Politics & IR, University of Nottingham - International Affairs:In Syria, Russia showed that it now had the capabilities to challenge what it saw as the US’s monopoly on the use of force on a global level and to get a say in the course of events relevant to its national interests. Certainly, this will have to factor into the West’s use of military force in certain situations in the future, because the danger of spiralling tensions and escalation with Russia will need to be taken into account.


...or some random dude on the internet...
Olivier5 April 13, 2022 at 07:19 #680955
Quoting Benkei
For them it's just another war not worth talking about.

What does that say about Western media and politicians?


Not much. There is a war going on between Ethiopia and Eritrea. How many pages does the Taipei Times devote to it? Or to the war in northern Nigeria with Boko Haram? Rhetorical question of course, to show that geographic proximity matters. What matters to Europeans does not necessarily matter that much to Africans, and vice versa. What's newsworthy is relative to one's locale. Why should a Nigerian reader care that much for a European war at this point, other than re. possibly price hikes in oil and better export prospects for oil-producing Nigeria?

Europe is not the center of the world.

Had you sampled Italian, Spanish, Polish, German or Danish newspapers, instead of Brazilian, Chinese and Indian, you would have found more reporting on the war in Ukraine.

What does it say about the hopes of a rule-based international order?


Again, not much, but it's a more interesting question. In my view, the UN charter became obsolete in 2003, when the US (who had founded the UN) decides to ignore it and invade Iraq, stabbing in the back any possibility of a rule-based international order .

There is a reason why Putin is aping Bush with those accusations of bioagent labs, etc. He is trolling the US about Iraq.
Isaac April 13, 2022 at 07:19 #680956
Quoting Punshhh
Is there another plausible outcome, I’d like to hear it?


I doubt that. There's an entire internet full of alternative narratives, if you've seriously not come across any it seems hard to believe that you're actually interested in one.
Punshhh April 13, 2022 at 07:22 #680959
Reply to Isaac Russia is not an economic superpower. And now it seems their so-called superpower army is a shambles.

I doubt that. There's an entire internet full of alternative narratives, if you've seriously not come across any it seems hard to believe that you're actually interested in one.
And your opinion as to the most likely outcome?
FreeEmotion April 13, 2022 at 10:43 #681007
Reply to Benkei Try CGTN https://www.cgtn.com/?pid=mobilewebsite0&deep_link_value=haiwai
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 10:46 #681009
Reply to FreeEmotion 40 billion in war time bonds. Ukraine is fucked even if Putin loses.

FreeEmotion April 13, 2022 at 10:53 #681010
Reply to Benkei

Do you mean this? I don't have a source for the 40 billion figure.

Still, with Ukraine’s future in doubt, investors who own Ukrainian bonds will have a hard time selling them in the foreseeable future, says Trang Nguyen, emerging-markets strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “There might be international support to help Ukraine stay current on its debt at the moment,” she says. “But there is a big question mark about its sovereignty.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/ukraine-war-bonds-have-limited-reach-so-far
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 10:55 #681011
Reply to FreeEmotion I was editing my previous comment but you already replied. :-)

The 40 billion is local currency, so only 1,5 billion USD. Not that bad if they hadn't already had huge debt with a debt to GDP ratio of over 65% in 2020. Yield for 10 year bonds is almost 20% at the moment. For comparison, Dutch is 1.09% and Germany 0.81%.
Isaac April 13, 2022 at 12:05 #681035
Quoting Punshhh
Russia is not an economic superpower.


No indeed, but irrelevant to the topic of whether we need be wary of provoking a military response.

Quoting Punshhh
it seems their so-called superpower army is a shambles.


'Seems' to whom? I've pressed @frank, @ssu and @Count Timothy von Icarus for some expert opinion on which they're basing their assessment, but all are being suspiciously tight-lipped. I suspect they're afraid of compromising their sources, deep cover assets in Russian intelligence no doubt...

Quoting Punshhh
And your opinion as to the most likely outcome?


I don't really have one. At a guess I'd say that there'll either be a deal which gives independence to Dombas and Crimea and an assurance of non-NATO membership for all, or America will succeed at drawing Russia into it's proxy war and we'll see (after a long drawn-out conflict) a full downfall and replacement of Putin with some new Western-friendly puppet who'll do what all western-friendly puppets have done in history - hand over massive contracts to US firms, build up huge debts, and slash welfare then get mired in conflict with resentful separatists. Meanwhile a few thousand more Ukrainians will be killed for the prize of having their own coloured flag hang over their debt-ridden, corrupt parliament whilst they slowly freeze because they can't afford the heating bills any more.

But at least Putin will have a minor setback in his plans so, hell all the thousands dead and immiserated will be worth it. Oh! The look on his face! Priceless.
frank April 13, 2022 at 12:38 #681044
Reply to Benkei
Could Ukraine reestablish economic ties with Europe after the war? Or would that be a provocation?

Benkei April 13, 2022 at 12:55 #681049
Reply to frank Economics has never been the issue as far as I know. The question is the level of corruption and to what extent that's a barrier to integrate with the EU economic system.
frank April 13, 2022 at 13:09 #681052
Quoting Benkei
Economics has never been the issue as far as I know. The question is the level of corruption and to what extent that's a barrier to integrate with the EU economic system.


Russia would allow Ukraine to integrate into the EU?
Olivier5 April 13, 2022 at 13:14 #681054
Quoting frank
Russia would allow Ukraine to integrate into the EU?


How could they stop it, if the EU is willing? Nuke Brussels?
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 13:45 #681066
Reply to frank I seem to recall, but can't find it right now, that Russia explicitly stated economic integration with the EU wasn't the issue. Not sure what they mean with that since the EU has an assistance article in case of an attack as well for its EU treaty members. So maybe they meant association treaty or partnership and cooperation agreement.
frank April 13, 2022 at 13:48 #681067
Quoting Olivier5
How could they stop it, if the EU is willing? Nuke Brussels?


They could invade Ukraine and blow a bunch of stuff up, kill a bunch of people, try to take the Donbas region, get bogged down, kill more people, blow more stuff up.

Wouldn't that do it?
frank April 13, 2022 at 13:50 #681068
Quoting Benkei
?frank I seem to recall, but can't find it right now, that Russia explicitly stated economic integration with the EU wasn't the issue


That doesn't really make a lot of sense though. Economic ties usually go hand in hand with political ties.

Now I'm confused. Weren't you arguing that the West is responsible for the attack because of overtures toward Ukraine?
Olivier5 April 13, 2022 at 13:53 #681069
Quoting frank
Wouldn't that do it?


Haven't they done that already?
neomac April 13, 2022 at 13:57 #681070
Reply to Isaac

[i]> You just keep claiming that “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another” without providing evidences and while being contradicted by the evidences: Ukrainian families got exterminated by Russian soldiers, no Ukrainian ruling class member has exterminated those families. — neomac
Are you suggesting that the policies of the ruling classes have resulted in no deaths?[/i]

I have no idea what you are talking about (which policies? Which ruling classes? Which deaths?) nor what relation it bears with what I wrote. So I’m explicitly asking you - now for the fifth time - to provide evidences of such claim “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another”.


> Yes. Which would probably be why I didn't make such a claim.

Then I don’t see the point of your claim “defending one's nation' alone is insufficient as a moral reason” since the “insufficiency” qualification by comparison to other alleged more relevant moral reasons (e.g. fighting against the ruling class, which you admit can be unacknowledged by the oppressed) doesn’t question the fact that Ukrainians actually have an acknowledged moral reason to fight for defending their nation and therefore feel compelled to act upon it as they do. Besides you were claiming that fighting over a flag is no doubt immoral. So, finally, can fighting for one’s nation be a defensible moral reason or not?


> Very little. Which is probably why I didn't restrict my assessment to the Russian ruling elite, nor the Russian poor.

OK then what is the relation between Russian and Ukrainian rich people being in a luxury yachts, while Russian and Ukrainian children starve do death in their rubbish, with the fact that Russian soldiers are exterminating Ukrainian families and children?


[i]> if Zelensky’s moral stand and choices are to be assessed over a de facto situation or actual terms on the table (as you claim), then I don’t see why your moral stand and choices about this war can’t be assessed based on the actual clash between 2 de facto dominant powers, as you frame this war. — neomac
Because our choices aren't limited to a de facto 2 clash between dominant powers. Which is probably why I have never suggested they are. [/i]

What?! So you are not claiming that the war in Ukraine is a war between American and Russian expansionism as great power politics in Mearsheimer-lingo, now?!
Anyway if your moral position and choices should not be constrained within a de facto clash of dominance between American and Russian powers, then also Zelensky moral position and choices should not be constrained within what a de facto war situation is, especially as framed by the enemy.

[i]> I talked about math because you talked about multi-causal theory and multi causal theories would allow to evaluate the exact or statistical relevance of a cause in a given output. — neomac
How?[/i]

What?! You should tell me! You talked about multi-causal analysis, I didn’t! That’s your job, not mine!

> So what factor (or factors) governs the difference?

> So you keep saying, yet you seem quite clear on what dimensions are not to be considered. Perhaps a quick run down of these multiple dimensions would help?[/i]

As I said, I intend moral assessment an a posteriori comparative tasks about what people actually value in given circumstances to determine the lesser evil. The reason why I can’t do a priori moral assessments is because I can’t predict what people actually value (they could value many different things) especially when facing contingent and challenging events (like a war, a pandemic, an immigration crisis, a terrorist threat, etc.), with all that goes with it in terms of costs/benefits and responsibility ascriptions. The multi-dimensionality of moral assessments refers precisely to the fact that there are values to consider and comparisons to make depending on given circumstances that we can not predict.
In a given situation like this war, I made my moral assessment based on a posteriori comparative evaluation concerning how much Zelensky’s choices reflect what Ukrainians actually value (defending Ukraine from Russian aggression), how much Ukrainian values are closer to Westerners wrt Russians (Ukrainains are more open to westernization), how much proportionate Russian response to the claimed threat from Ukrainians was, how much Russian aggressive expansionism is an actual existential threat to the West (given the actual Russian cyberwar against the West, the actual nuclear threat against the West, the actual Russian aggressive expansion in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa, and Putin’s actual aspirations to a new world order), and so on, and my conclusion is that I have moral reasons to side with Zelensky’s resistance against Russia.

[i]> If you want to object to me for good, tell me if you would morally support Isis over America and why. — neomac
I already did, right at the beginning of the paragraph you're supposedly critiquing.[/i]

I have no idea what paragraph your are referring to. Quote yourself or repeat your point as I’ve done many times.

> Again, how on earth do you get from the notion that a puppet government wouldn't be so bad as to be worth thousands of lives to "I think we ought to depose Zelensky". It's just an insane leap of inference.

A suggestion is a pragmatic implicature not a logic inference. So if you contrast a Russian puppet government wrt Zelensky’s, praise the first and blame the second the obvious implicature is that Russian puppet should replace Zelensky. Also because that is very much consistent with Russian desiderata (like having a Russian puppet government instead of having pro-western government as Zelensky running Ukraine) which you are arguing we should readily submit to.
If one wanted to suggest to people that Ukrainians should replace Zelensky with a Russian puppet government without actually saying it, one would precisely to do the way you did: insist on the tragic mistakes of Zelensky on one side and stress the benefits of having a puppet government on the other side. There is no more straightforward way to suggest it without explicitly saying (it’s called comparative advertising in marketing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advertising).
Again, at best, you could claim that you didn’t mean it. At worst, you could keep disingenuously complaining. Either way, I made my point and I’ll stick to it for precisely the reasons I provided.

[i]> It's absolutely absurd to suggest that every time I raise a criticism about a government decision, I'm calling for them to be deposed.
Where else did I do that? Can you fully quote me? — neomac
I just did. [/i]

Where? So far we are simply arguing over a single claim of mine: Quoting neomac
3. So you wanted to suggest a third strategy opposing Russian and American expansionism and now you want Zelensky gone, which is more than what Putin officially demanded?! Even Putin might cringe over your overzealousness.
This is where I claim you to be suggesting a replacement of Zelensky’s regime with a puppet government and we are arguing now about this claim. While you stated “It's absolutely absurd to suggest that every time I raise a criticism about a government decision, I'm calling for them to be deposed.” as if I suggested that you want Zelensky gone other times. I’m asking you to fully quote myself where else I made such a suggestion.


[i]> Poor people bring to life children that they are incapable of taking care of, don’t they have some responsibility for the death/sickness/starvation/misery of their children? — neomac
Yes. I presume that would be why they try with every ounce of their soul to feed and protect those children.

> Palestinians bring to life children that they are incapable of fully protecting against the oppression of Israelis, don’t they have some responsibility for the death/sickness/starvation/misery of their children exposed to the Israelis’ oppression? — neomac
Yes. Again probably why they try so desperately hard to protect them. [/i]

Sure, but that’s also why you would consider the poor/Palestinian parents immoral because they are knowingly exposing their children to death/sickness/starvation/misery. Indeed you claimed “If you don't agree then you'd have to offer an alternative theory of moral responsibility; one in which people can make decisions without any blame accruing to them for the foreseeable outcomes.”


[i]> So shouldn’t they stop having children? — neomac
That's one solution, yes. Not the only solution, clearly. [/i]

The point is that’s the moral solution, you would readily support, considering the de facto power relations between poor and rich or between Palestinians and Israel, and the gravity of risks that poor/Palestinians are exposing their children to.
What are the other solutions you are talking about?

> The former is true, the latter is a strategic judgement. I'm not speaking to a Ukrainian so I can't interrogate their reasoning. I’m speaking to a non-Ukrainian, form the comfort of their non-bombed home and asking why they are supporting continued fighting so fervently.

What is the point of such claims, in particular the part I put in bold? I see none. First of all, you don’t know me, and you have no idea about my personal involvement in this story as much as I don’t know yours. So I don’t see any compelling reason to support your assumption. Second, we are in a philosophy forum where we discuss things precisely because we are drawn for whatever reason to such intellectual activity, and we can do that without involving anyone’s personal situation. Third, I can talk about moral reasons as fervently as I can talk about the propositional content of our thoughts or the conceptual reduction of time to perception or the logical form of a Devine Command Theory, especially if I encounter people making preposterous claims as you did repeatedly (actually on other philosophical debates over epistemology or metaphysics or logics I have been even harsher than I am with you). Fourth, investing energies in a debate over a war without any direct involvement in that war could be true for those who support continued fighting as likely as for those who do support surrender. So why are you depicting only one side in these terms? Fifth, if Russia is an actual existential threat to the West, we have a damn serious reason to be worried even from a position of comfort, precisely because we fear it won’t last as much as we can fear a pandemic spreading from China even if we are not actually sick nor living in China.


[i]> BTW, for the third time, wouldn’t this line of reasoning of yours simply support whatever the status quo is (ruling class oppressing working class is a de facto situation right?), since no power (especially authoritarian) can be radically challenged without risking one’s (and often beloved ones’) material well-being and life? — neomac
Then for the third time, no, the outcome continued war is compared to matters.[/i]

Quote yourself where you said no to that question, the other 2 times.
I have no idea what “the outcome continued war is compared to matters.” is supposed to mean. Can you unpack your claim more extensively and highlight its moral implications? How else do you see the oppressed poor get better condition from an authoritarian ruling class without fight (history is plenty of violent revolutions and civil wars where the poor tried to fight against an authoritarian ruling class to improve their conditions), and therefore risking one’s (and often beloved ones’) material well-being and life? I’ll remind you that you keep talking about the importance of ruling class oppression which is far more consistent than the oppression between nations, so would you exclude fighting against an oppressive ruling class (like the Ukrainian peasants’ revolts against the Stalin’s forced collectivization) as morally defensible for fear of worse consequences (like the Holodomor which is worse than what Russia has done so far in this war against Ukrainians)?


> What? You've not labelled p, q or r so I can't possibly use this.

Here you go:
P1. If, in the Ukrainian-Russian negotiation, demands are unacceptable [p] or the assurances aren’t enough [q], then the negotiation fail [r]
P2. In the Ukrainian-Russian negotiation, negotiation demands were unacceptable [p] and assurances weren’t enough [q]
C. The negotiation fail [r]


> But I support Ukraine. So does everyone writing here. We disagree about how. Are you claiming there are moral reasons to back particular strategies?

Yes I’m claiming there are moral reasons to back a particular strategy, and the particular strategy is supporting Zelensky’s resistance against Russian aggression. Does that sound new to you after all I already, repeatedly and extensively said? Because if it doesn’t, what was the point of asking such question exactly?

> Whenever I talk about strategy you switch to intention (1), when I talk about intention you say it's about 'moral reasons' (2) when I talk about morality you defer back to tactics again (3).

I can’t recall examples of (1) and (3) can you point me to where I did that? (2) happened because you tried to frame my claims from your assumptions not mine, and I didn’t just switch, I argued for my point to let you address it in a more pertinent way.
The fact that you feel talking about something doesn’t imply that your interlocutor sees it as pertinent, so the more you derail from what is perceived as pertinent by your interlocutor the more your interlocutor will likely switch back to what he perceives to be more pertinent (like when you feel like talking about the Yemeni when we are talking about the Russian aggression of Ukraine, or when you feel like talking about rich and poor when we are talking again about Russian aggression fo Ukraine, or when you feel like talking the deaths provoked by the Ukrainian ruling class when we are talking again about Russian aggression of Ukraine).
Besides you too switch from one subject to another, what makes it look suspicious though is that you are doing this when one is challenging the internal consistency of your own assumptions/claims (like the idea that this war is due to American expansionism, or that ruling class oppression is far more consistent than the oppression between nations).


> Fine. Replace all my uses of US, NATO and Europe with the names of their current leaders and influences and then answer the questions.

That’s your job. When you do your job, I’ll do mine.

> Not what I asked.

You asked: “If Putin's power consolidation was increased bu sanction and NATO involvement in the war, then ought we avoid those things?” I can’t/couldn’t give you a straightforward answer because that depends. If sanctions and/or NATO involvement consolidate Putin’s power within Russia but weaken his power outside Russia then we should sanction and get NATO involved. If sanctions and/or NATO involvement consolidate Putin’s power outside Russia then no we should not sanction nor get NATO involved. If sanctions and NATO involvement have equal opportunity to have Putin’s power consolidation outside Russia, then it’s indifferent what we do.


> Again, not even addressing the question I actually asked.

Which question? The piece of yours I was commenting (“So as far as the moral case is concerned, you concede the point that continuing to fight is not morally advised simply on the grounds of 'opposing Putin's expansionism' since it is a moot point what course of action would best do that.”) didn’t contain any questions, it was attributing to me a concession based on what I said earlier, so I was simply clarifying what I said earlier.
Nobody is forbidding you to ask your questions again. I have to do it very often with you.


[i]> cruel and unfair treatment of people, especially by not giving them the same freedom, rights, etc. is morally defensible when it’s for punishing immoral people. — neomac
So you think punishing immoral people is unfair?[/i]

When we talk about unfair treatment we implicitly associate it with the idea of unjust treatment. Yet unfair treatment could simply mean unequal treatment for example by not giving someone the same freedom, rights, etc. But unequal treatment is not always unjust, unequal treatment of criminals is just. So, during our exchange, I hacked the latter usage of “fair” as an expedient to justify my unusual usage of the word “oppression” (when punishing the immoral) in the absence of a better word with the semantic features I needed (we do not have a word that allows to talk about just and unjust oppression). So, to answer your question, obviously no in the way we usually intend it, but yes due to the linguistic expedient I just clarified. I don’t mind if you disagree, though.


> There cannot always be an alternative, otherwise negotiations never end. At some point in time the agreement has to coincide with both parties' strategy.

Sure but the point is that you didn’t prove that you offered an alternative third strategy to which opposing parties could converge, you are just saying that one party has to converge to the requests of the other party as they are formulated.


[i]> You can take side in accordance to your beliefs. So do I. Now what? — neomac
Well, you could start by refraining from referring to my beliefs as 'preposterous', if you accept that they're just beliefs.[/I]

Yet another preposterous claim. Even if you can act in accordance to your beliefs and your beliefs are just beliefs (?!), your beliefs can still be only partially true, false, contradictory, unjustified, nonsense, or preposterous. And if I believe they are only partially true, false, contradictory, unjustified, nonsense, or preposterous. I will claim so and argue for it, if necessary. You can do the same. Indeed we are in a philosophical forum discussing things, often we disagree because we have reasons to believe that our interlocutor’s belief are only partially true, false, contradictory, unjustified, nonsense, or preposterous. So your argument is flawed on so many levels that it deserves to be qualified as “preposterous”.

[i]> So why do you trust those who tell you that continuing to fight is better for the Ukrainian people? Why do you trust those who tell you that life under the terms of a US/European loan system will be better than one under Russian puppet government?
Never made such claims. — neomac
Good. So are they?[/i]

Are they what? Whom exactly are you talking about?


[i]> I already answered: “So for what strategy is concerned I tend to defer more to the feedback of experts and leaders, and then double-check based on what I find logic or consistent with other sources and background knowledge” — neomac
That's not an answer. All we can ever do on a site like this is enquire about people's reasons for holding the views they hold. The entire enterprise if pointless otherwise. If you're going to answer "because of some reasons", then we might as well give up here. I'm asking about what those reasons are, I assumed you had some.[/i]

I didn’t get why it’s not an answer, I would understand better if you could show me how you would answer to your own question: “If the outcomes of strategic decisions are beyond your expertise, then why do you choose to trust the experts and leaders supporting your current position and not those supporting the alternatives?”


[i]> What matters to me is what Ukrainians and Western leaders consider the “worst option” in geopolitically significant terms — neomac
Why? Why not, for example, what the various military and foreign policy experts consider the “worst option” in geopolitically significant terms? Or what the various political commentators consider the “worst option” in geopolitically significant terms? Why put your faith in the Ukrainian leadership and the Western powers' leadership?[/i]

That’s not a full quotation. I was contrasting their opinion with yours and I explained why.
If you can suggest military and foreign policy experts or political commentators that disagree with my views or support your views, I’m open to have a look at them, of course.

Benkei April 13, 2022 at 13:58 #681071
Reply to frank Military integration resulting in all sorts of military bases surrounding Moscow is in my view the main worry of the Russians, which is why they are against NATO encirclement and what I see as the main reason for Russia to start the recent war. The declaration of NATO last year was the last poke of the bear, Russia demanded withdrawal, which was seen as a gambit to allow them to negotiate that no further expansion of NATO would take place.
frank April 13, 2022 at 14:02 #681072
Quoting Benkei
Military integration resulting in all sorts of military bases surrounding Moscow is in my view the main worry of the Russians,


Ok.
frank April 13, 2022 at 14:14 #681077
Quoting Olivier5
Wouldn't that do it?
— frank

Haven't they done that already?


Yes. I think the anti-corruption-democratic activities that went on in Ukraine were seen as a threat to Putin directly. He needed to squash that and the ties Ukraine had that reinforced that mentality.

He's not going to let Ukraine join the EU.
Olivier5 April 13, 2022 at 14:23 #681080
Reply to frank We shall see.
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 14:26 #681082
Quoting frank
I think the anti-corruption-democratic activities that went on in Ukraine were seen as a threat to Putin directly.


All accounts I read were reporting that corruption reform wasn't going anywhere.
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 14:27 #681083
Quoting Benkei
which is why they are against NATO encirclement and what I see as the main reason for Russia to start the recent war.


I think the main reason is Putin wanted a big chunk of Ukraine (or the whole thing) and thought he could walk in and take it.
frank April 13, 2022 at 14:37 #681086
Quoting Benkei
All accounts I read were reporting that corruption reform wasn't going anywhere


In Russia? That's expected.
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 14:44 #681088
Reply to frank In Ukraine. See: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/26/imf-review-ukraine-debt-gdp-linked-warrants-reform/

The IMF’s $5 billion financial package for Ukraine, agreed on in mid-2020, has stalled, with the most recent review mission ending in February without a deal on the next tranche of funding. The IMF is waiting until Ukraine’s leadership decides to recommit to the agreed priorities, which include bank independence and judicial reform, as well as anti-corruption measures. This is not the first time Ukraine’s cooperation with the IMF has been delayed due to the pace of Kyiv’s corruption reforms. Back in 2016, Christine Lagarde, then the managing director of the IMF, gave a harsh warning to Ukraine that it would stop a $40 billion bailout program for the country unless it was serious about fighting corruption.

At the same time, the debt problem is only becoming more urgent. Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased from 50.4 percent of GDP in 2019 to a projected 65.4 percent in 2020, according to the IMF. In December alone, Ukraine’s Finance Ministry raised roughly $4 billion in government bonds, with the majority of the securities at interest rates between 10-12 percent. Among other debt, Ukraine also announced a $350 million short-term loan from Deutsche Bank that month. According to Ukraine’s finance ministry, the country will have to repay roughly $11 billion during the first half of 2021, or about 7 percent of the country’s GDP. It will then have to repay roughly an additional $10 billion during the rest of 2021.
frank April 13, 2022 at 14:53 #681091
Reply to Benkei
But they'd been proposing to be less corrupt. The idea is dangerous to Putin. That made Ukraine the best candidate for empire building.

Unfortunately, Putin didn’t have the expertise necessary to take Kiev, so his plans went astray.

Putin knew NATO had no intention of threatening Russia militarily. He wasn't worried about that. He felt it was time to raise Russia's global profile.

RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 15:12 #681095
Quoting frank
Putin knew NATO had no intention of threatening Russia militarily. He wasn't worried about that. He felt it was time to raise Russia's global profile.


Exactly right.
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 15:27 #681098
Reply to magritte

Well. They could. They've surprised me before with this war.

However, they have been warned about the use of chemical weapons. I don't think many people want to rush to WWIII, but who knows?
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 15:52 #681102
Quoting frank
Putin knew NATO had no intention of threatening Russia militarily. He wasn't worried about that. He felt it was time to raise Russia's global profile.


I find the argument that the NATO is purely a defensive alliance rather naïve. As if the US would accept a defensive pact between Mexico and China where China places ballistic missiles in Mexico.

It's also waylaid by the fact it took military action in Kosovo in 1999 which was most definitively not a defensive war but a "humanitarian intervention" where everybody pretended the KLA didn't commit them as well (and then retreated over the border to Albania in the hopes of turning it into an international conflict).
Olivier5 April 13, 2022 at 15:55 #681105
Reply to Benkei I thought the IMF was this evil western institution harnessed by the US to dominate the world. They are worth quoting now?
Punshhh April 13, 2022 at 16:09 #681109
Reply to Isaac “seems” is based on what is coming through on the various media sources. The poor state of the Russian army is self evident. I was listening to a Russian citizen talking on the radio the other day. Saying that she knew of fighting age men in Russia going into hiding, because they were being conscripted at gun point.
Looks pretty shoddy to me.

So what does a negotiated settlement involve in terms of commerce, or emigration? The releasing of sanctions and back to normal. The splitting up of Ukraine. It doesn’t look likely to me. I note that today Putin admitted the talks had failed.
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 16:13 #681111
Reply to Benkei NATO is not a threat to Russia, and Putin knows it.
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 16:46 #681115
Reply to RogueAI

What?

Oh, then let Russia put a base in Mexico in Canada, no problem.
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 16:49 #681116
Quoting Manuel
What?

Oh, then let Russia put a base in Mexico in Canada, no problem.


Russia, as they've shown with this invasion and nuclear saber rattling, is a threat to the world, and esp. their neighbors. I wouldn't want to live near them. Would you?
Count Timothy von Icarus April 13, 2022 at 16:51 #681117
Reply to Isaac
I'm not being right lipped about assessments. Here is one for the current conflict I quoted at length earlier, as opposed to say, a blurb about Syria, where Russia faced a band of infighting militias that were also getting attacked by Turkey, the US, the Peshmerga, and the Gulf States, while getting considerable support for its side from Hezbollah and Iran.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 16:52 #681118
Reply to RogueAI

They can have a crap army, it doesn't matter. North Korea's apparently is pretty crap. They don't get invaded.

Wouldn't want a hostile military nation living next to me, no. Obviously.
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 17:04 #681120
Reply to Manuel Which country would you rather live in, Russia or U.S.?

Manuel April 13, 2022 at 17:09 #681123
Reply to RogueAI

What does that have to do with anything? Like at all?

Clearly the US, but that's immaterial to this.
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 17:10 #681124
Quoting Manuel
What does that have to do with anything? Like at all?

Clearly the US, but that's immaterial to this.


What country would you rather have as a neighbor? Russia or the U.S.?
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 17:12 #681125
Reply to RogueAI

That's a good diversion.

Ask Cuba, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, in fact all of South America.


RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 17:15 #681127
Reply to Manuel You would rather live in America than Russia. You would rather have America as a neighbor than Russia. America (and the other NATO countries) are not perfect, but having them on your doorstep is not even close to having Russia on your doorstep.
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 17:19 #681128
Quoting Manuel
Ask Cuba, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, in fact all of South America.


Ask them what? Why they're desperately trying to get in to the U.S.? Why do you think so many people in those countries are fleeing to America? Because it's so awful?
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 17:21 #681130
Reply to RogueAI

Yeah. No.

That's for another thread.
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 17:29 #681131
https://www.ft.com/content/dc70777f-05d9-4e44-8217-30f448e2b64f

Finland to decide within ‘weeks’ whether to join Nato

This is scary. It makes sense. But damn, what a mess.
Count Timothy von Icarus April 13, 2022 at 17:38 #681134
Reply to Benkei

Or more recently, Libya. Given modern war's tendency to send millions of people fleeing into Europe, and the political meltdowns this has caused, NATO, or at least EU nations, do seem to have something of a stake in preventing dire situations from cropping up near their borders (at the level of grand strategy at least). But, clearly they have a problem of not wanting to commit the resources needed to actually ensure stability in these areas; it's more a gropping attempt to find a path towards the lesser evils (in terms of humanitarian optics and the political/economic realities of migrant flows).

Russia/Belarus's tactic of giving migrants passage to EU borders to try to cause a rift in the EU goes along with this new reality.

As for Chinese missiles in Mexico, something like this has already happened. The Soviet's problem in Cuba was that they lacked the blue water navy to challenge a US blockade, dooming the project. China would face a similar problem for the foreseeable future.

China could try for such an arrangement, but it seems like that would just be a good way for them to drastically increase the risk of Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan developing their own deterrent to deal with a China taking an aggressive nuclear posture towards their main ally. Not to mention, China would have to somehow offer benefits that outweigh the costs of US sanctions, which is likely to be a very high cost, one they could only realistically support by pouring aid into a small country. Mexico, with its huge trade relations with the US, obviously isn't going to work, not to mention that their large population means the aid to make the deal a net benefit to them would be outside even China's (or the US's) price range. Maybe Venezuela would work, but there you have to worry about internal stability, and now you're far enough out that US missile defense becomes an issue again.

All that is sort of besides the point. Did Russia invade Ukraine in 2022 because the US set up missiles in Europe decades ago to counter the USSR?

The invasion and threatening nuclear war is the best thing Russia could have done to ensure those missiles stay there. The US isn't investing in new missiles to target Russia. Quite the opposite. The big investments have been in extending missile defense to Europe.

Russia has reason to be concerned there, in that the Aegis Ashore network has thousands of launchers capable of using the SM-3 Block IIA, which can demonstrably down ICBMs, and which can field a host of options for taking out intermediate range missiles at all parts of their flight path (by contrast, the high end ICBM Interceptors up in Alaska aren't redeployable easily, and have cost multiple times Russia's annual defense budget). But the irony here is that this would not be as much of a threat to Russia is they didn't need to keep pounding the table and threatening to nuke civilian targets across Europe when their adventurism goes bad.

Were they developing a modern economy, instead of now falling behind China in per capita GDP, and had they not hemorrhaged over five million mostly young, mostly educated young people to emigration (mostly to the evil West, mostly, in their own words, because they were fleeing Russia's backwardsness) even before this war... maybe they could just develop new hardware to deal with the issue, instead of counting on 1980s weapons to keep them a "superpower."

The problem for Russia boosters is that their actions are absolute shit even from a realpolitik, grand strategy perspective. They are the actions of an insular, incestuous leadership class that is high on their own propaganda and disconnected from reality.

Not that it'll be any time soon, but from a grand strategy perspective, there is also the issue that their entire economy will go truly up in smoke if any sort of reliable non-fossil fuel energy source is developed if they don't develop other industries. ITER in France, a tocamak with a 10:1 return on power, not Aegis or Minutemen, is Russia's biggest threat on its current path.
Christoffer April 13, 2022 at 17:53 #681139
Quoting Manuel
Finland to decide within ‘weeks’ whether to join Nato

This is scary. It makes sense. But damn, what a mess.


What is scary? It's scary for us in Sweden and Finland as the invasion of Ukraine showed us how the only way to be safe from the crazy people in Russia is to be part of Nato.

What's scary right now is that Sweden still hasn't 100% decided and it would be a clusterfuck if we didn't join while Finland did. Russia would probably invade Gotland to keep a buffer zone in the Baltic sea if that happens.

If we both join, then I'm glad that we at least have some protection against the degenerates in Kremlin.
frank April 13, 2022 at 17:57 #681140
Quoting Benkei
I find the argument that the NATO is purely a defensive alliance rather naïve. As if the US would accept a defensive pact between Mexico and China where China places ballistic missiles in Mexico.


In this scenario, why is Mexico interested in a defensive pact with China?
Count Timothy von Icarus April 13, 2022 at 18:12 #681142
On a less political note, is Russia's performance in this conflict, particularly the heavy losses for armored units just inductive of the quality > quantity tend of modern warfare and the need to upgrade hardware continuously, or is it the death knell of the main battle tank?

I've seen quality analysis on both sides. That the US is throwing billions into M1s doesn't say much; it drops money into bad hardware all the time. Case in point, turning their rear echelon mobility vehicle, the Humvee into a $250,000 gas guzzling, quasi-IFV, mound of armor that now sucked at all its roles, using a logic of "more casualties = let's weld even more armor on to it! Why do drivers need to be able to see?"

The new M1 had the ability to stream in overhead drone video, intercept incoming missiles and drones, detect when it is being painted by lasers, radar, etc. However, given the enhanced recon drones offer, and the advances in smart munitions, it seems like a survivable tank-like vehicle focusing on guided mortars and rockets might make more sense. And is a tank still a tank if it loses the main gun and turret?

I guess the next phase of the war might point one way or the other. Infantry anti-tank weapons and artillery seem to be working well for Ukraine on defense, but the argument for tanks is also on your ability to push on the adversary's positions, something infantry anti-tank weapons are not ideal for. This seems to explain the shift in aid to more IFVs, APCs, and tanks (videos from Poland shoe trainloads headed east).
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 18:13 #681143
Reply to Manuel You have a valid point that America has not been a vey good neighbor.
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 18:25 #681149
What's scary is a nuclear war.

What Russia is doing is criminal, no doubt at all about it.

But if they're cornered without being offered a decent way "out", is very dangerous, regardless of what one may think of the situation.
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 18:42 #681150
Reply to frank Oh, I don't know, because of the US war on drugs, attempts at regime change in countries nearby, rhetoric suggesting Mexicans are sub-human (they're all rapists remember). The fact the US has broken more treaties than any other country in history (every treaty with native americans ever) might be a reason too and has started more aggressive wars in the past 40 years than any other country. They have extensive covert operations since the Cold War and this has hardly abated or it just pretends it's all one big "war on terror" and has military operations, regularly without local authority (talk about "sovereignty") in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, CHad, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia, Philippines, Belize, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, Trinidad & Tobago, Guyana, Suriname, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan.

Of course, when the US does it, it's called "foreign intervention" instead of "use of force" and "aggression".

Mexico in particular is further confronted with clandestine US military interventions in the war on drugs or has the US bankroll political opposition groups.

Oh yeah, we're supposed to be allied and the US things international law is important, except if we would try a US american citizen at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, in which case they can invade the Netherlands (an ally) without a recognised ground in international law. So if there's one country that has exactly zero standing to complain about any other country about "breaking the rules" it's the US.

Of course, once we forget about the rules, we realise the rules are whatever power can enforce them to be. So they will change and our chance to develop a system of universal rules after WWII has been squandered.

As @Olivier5 put it succintly: the US stabbed the UN system in the back when it attacked Iraq (and even before that with the illegal war in Afghanistan).
frank April 13, 2022 at 19:05 #681152
Reply to Benkei
Right. There are two things I'd like to get you to see about the USA-Mexico comparison to Russia-Ukraine.

1. In the USA-Mexico scenario where Mexico wants to ally itself with China, the aggression actually started with the USA, not China. MEXICO WANTS A STRONG ALLY BECAUSE IT'S BEEN ABUSED.

So the USA can't really complain that it feels threatened by China. It's rather that its regional authority is threatened.

So this translates to:

Ukraine wants to join NATO because Russia is a real threat. If NATO is interested in this alliance, this does not mean NATO is threatening Russia.

I'll go on to number 2 (if that's OK) if you agree with 1.

ssu April 13, 2022 at 20:19 #681164
Quoting Isaac
'Seems' to whom? I've pressed frank, @ssu and @Count Timothy von Icarus for some expert opinion on which they're basing their assessment, but all are being suspiciously tight-lipped.

Tightlipped? If I remember correctly (I may remember incorrectly), you are the one making accusations of me keeping here a blog and putting links and that I should go and see a therapist. :roll:

Your falling to just ad hominems here.

ssu April 13, 2022 at 20:27 #681165
Quoting Manuel
What?

Oh, then let Russia put a base in Mexico in Canada, no problem.

If the US states that they are artificial countries, they belong to the US and would
continue annexing parts of their territory, I guess both Canada and Mexico would look for help from Russia and China. Likely they would be happy about it. And of course Russia has basing rights in Cuba, for your information.

(From 2019:)


Mexico actually has took a brilliant stance with being non-aligned. It has sent it's troops only to the US, actually. Quite telling how you can smartly reason with the US being your neighbor.
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 20:35 #681167
Reply to frank That's neither here nor there. Nobody in this scenarios cares what the Mexicans think - I just indulged your question because listing US crimes is a hobby so that nobody forgets how everything it touches becomes worse.

The point is the USA would not accept (and did not during the Cuban missile crisis) that countries it considers dangerous or hostile sets up military bases and equipment on its border. Neither does Russia. And surprise, there's war.

Obviously some impute more sinister motives or argue it's not the main reason but it's enough of a reason by any standard that the US would apply itself.

Doesn't make it pretty or morally just but it is entirely in line with expectations and exactly what most countries would do if they had enough power.
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 20:38 #681168
@frank Btw, had an interesting discussion with a friend today who paraphrased recent history of Europe as: we have to thank the Russians for not speaking German and thank the Americans for not speaking Russian.

I do agree. So thanks for that, now convince your oligarchic overlords to stop with the empire building and maybe take global warming seriously.
frank April 13, 2022 at 20:39 #681169
Reply to Benkei
I just don't think you're focusing on what's probably true.
Benkei April 13, 2022 at 20:46 #681170
Reply to frank What? That the US and Russia are both to blame for this war thanks to them waging a decades long proxy war there? Based on stuff people predicted 25 years ago, repeatedly repeated and now we have to buy that there's a new set of conditions and motivations because Putin made a speech even if NATO withdrawal and cessation of expansion was the demand right before the war?

Why don't you tell me what you think is true and argue why the above is false instead of handwaving at it?

frank April 13, 2022 at 20:53 #681172
Quoting Benkei
Why don't you tell me what you think is true and argue why the above is false instead of handwaving at it?


I just meant your belief that NATO was threatening Russia isn't based on what's most probable. It's something about Mexico.

Manuel April 13, 2022 at 20:59 #681174
Reply to ssu

Well, if you overlook the fact that the US stole half of Mexico. It's not as if "San Francisco", "San Diego" or "El Paso" are English names, afer all.

Yeah, Cuba and Russia have a history, which could have destroyed the world. The US (correctly), did not want nuclear weapons in Cuba.

Well, Obama and Trump weren't too nice to Mexico, incidentally.

All I'm saying, is something that I think should not be controversial: no big power would want a hostile military nation on its border. Some countries are forced into this situation, like China with Taiwan, or India with Pakistan.

But it's not as if any of these countries would be say "great, let's have our enemies living next to us."

I mean, the US went to war in Iraq for WMD's (that's what they stated) and that country is not even close to US borders. Not to mention the sanction on Iran, also extremely far away from the US.

What Russia is doing is still awful and criminal, they shouldn't have done it, the punch is coming back with interest added. But from a "realpolitik" perspective, it makes sense.
Changeling April 13, 2022 at 21:03 #681176
Quoting Manuel
It's not as if "San Francisco", "San Diego" or "El Paso" are English names, afer all.


They're not Mexican, either. Lol
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 22:09 #681198
Quoting Manuel
But from a "realpolitik" perspective, it makes sense.


I don't think it does. I think Putin knows NATO is not a threat to Russia. The Western countries would love for Russia to get its act together and work with them to contain China. Putin tried for the easy land grab and came up short.
frank April 13, 2022 at 22:18 #681201
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 22:29 #681203
Reply to RogueAI

If that's true, why didn't NATO accept Russia as a member back in 2000?

Contain China? Where? They're going to some areas in the South China Sea, but are surrounded by countries with fire power.
RogueAI April 13, 2022 at 22:43 #681207
Quoting Manuel
If that's true, why didn't NATO accept Russia as a member back in 2000?


Here's a good article on that:
https://time.com/5564207/russia-nato-relationship/

Remember that Trump said quite a few times that NATO was "obsolete". And he was elected! And NATO members have been skimping on their defense spending. That is not an organization that is spoiling for a fight with Russia.

Contain China? Where? They're going to some areas in the South China Sea, but are surrounded by countries with fire power.


Let's keep it that way. China's system is evil and repressive. The more enemies it has the better.
Manuel April 13, 2022 at 22:50 #681210
Reply to RogueAI

Human rights and NATO! Is that a joke? Because Turkey is a prime example of human rights.

The purpose of NATO was to contain the Soviet Union. Why is it still around if the Soviet Union fell a long time ago?

It was completely obsolete and Europe should by now have it's own military (a real one), not reliant on the US.

Quoting RogueAI
Let's keep it that way. China's system is evil and repressive. The more enemies it has the better.


Are we trying to understand the world or are we subjecting it to Disneyfication?
Streetlight April 13, 2022 at 23:28 #681213
I was going to laugh at the fact that the US gave $800 million dollars in weapons away to Ukraine despite being a third world country that "can't afford" healthcare for its citizens, then I remembered that it gave one billion dollars in arms to Israel so it can continue murdering Palestinians and then I remembered that the US is a bunch of arms manufacturers in a trench coat who fund genocide when and where it takes place.
FreeEmotion April 14, 2022 at 01:20 #681226
This is all possible by the manufacture of consent, and the two-party - divide-the-country approach to US politics. The ultimate triumph of any evil empire, it seems it to reach the point where it does not have to silence criticism because those in charge are too powerful to let anyone change their decisions. I think the most powerful weapon manufactured is the manufacture of consent, which Chomsky was allowed to publish - apparently he was acting alone.

Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media is a 1988 book by Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky. It argues that the mass communication media of the U.S. "are effective and powerful ideological institutions that carry out a system-supportive propaganda function, by reliance on market forces, internalized assumptions, and self-censorship, and without overt coercion", by means of the propaganda model of communication.[1] The title refers to consent of the governed, and derives from the phrase "the manufacture of consent" used by Walter Lippmann in Public Opinion (1922).[2] The book was honored with the Orwell Award.


In such situations, successful activism is the answer, but we must get the define the problem first.

The introduction describes man's inability to interpret the world: "The real environment is altogether too big, too complex, and too fleeting for direct acquaintance"[2] between people and their environment. People construct a pseudo-environment that is a subjective, biased, and necessarily abridged mental image of the world, and to a degree, everyone's pseudo-environment is a fiction. People "live in the same world, but they think and feel in different ones."[3]


Public Opinion proposes that the increased power of propaganda and the specialized knowledge required for effective political decisions have rendered the traditional notion of democracy impossible.


What I see today seems to make this assessment correct. This in 1922


FreeEmotion April 14, 2022 at 01:52 #681235
Reply to RogueAI Well if that is the way the Biden Regime thinks then it all makes sense to surround China and prepare for the ultimate war with China. It only requires a few people in power to go along, and apparently intellectual prowess does not prelude this opinion.

https://www.sott.net/article/317746-Justifying-covert-aggression-Americas-biggest-of-all-big-lies

I do not think that the UN Charter says anything about regime change, or which methods of government are permissible. However, no-one really respects it. "No More War" is like arsonists reaching an agreement on preventing arson, with matches in their hands.

The Greek government, for example, was requested by the US to host bases.

Specifically, it is seeking air and naval facilities on the island of Skyros that could be used by either rotational or permanent U.S. units, Kathimerini reported.

Skyros is in the center of the Aegean and would give U.S. ships and aircraft quicker access to the Black Sea, where NATO has sought to expand operations over concerns about Russian aggression.

U.S. European Command has stepped up operations across Greece over the past few years, establishing a steadier foothold in the strategic eastern Mediterranean in response to Russia.

China’s growing economic clout in the area, which includes control of the Greek port at Piraeus, also concerns U.S. military officials.


Look, go ahead and have your war. The innocent people of the world will suffer as always, and maybe it is time they undertook some self-defence of their own.
Streetlight April 14, 2022 at 02:16 #681243
Anyone who whines about Chinese influence but has nothing to say about the 100+ US military bases around the planet can STFU and be shot into the sun.
Manuel April 14, 2022 at 02:50 #681251
Reply to StreetlightX

I'm no commie, I'll say that, but these China accusations are pretty wild. You REALLY gotta buy the "Western POV", hook, line and sinker
Streetlight April 14, 2022 at 03:10 #681253
Reply to Manuel The propaganda peddled and eaten up wholesale by the West and people in the West against China is utterly insane. And I say this as someone with a deep hatred for alot of what China has and continues to do. But everytime an Amercian shits their pants over something China does - this is a good thing. And China's willingness to crackdown on its ultra-wealthy is a model to be emulated with passion.
Count Timothy von Icarus April 14, 2022 at 04:17 #681263
On the topic of competence, at least Russia has avoided cartoonish blunders.

Their flag ship is an older, but heavily upgraded missile carrier specced out for area denial. It packs a ton of fire power. However, it does so at the cost of cramming 64 S-300 missiles and a further 16 P-500 cruise missiles, plus a few dozen short range SAMs, into a small area. It might seem like a bit too much high explosive in one place it you're one of the ship's 500 crewmen.

The cruise missiles seem pretty dear to Russia right now, given their sparing use of them despite the fact that they represent their safest option for taking out NATO arms shipments out in western Ukraine. Meanwhile, the area denial capabilities of the S-300 make them ship quite valuable.

So, it would be really silly to have it patrolling the Ukrainian coast within anti-ship missile range for no apparent reason. It is possibly providing AA around Kherson, AA against what is unclear. In any case, you wouldn't want to be just sailing it on a predictable loop for days on end because there is nothing for it to do, but it has to look busy. And even if you did this, once open sources were documenting it and making fun of the path, you wouldn't keep doing it, and go on sailing right into range of an anti-ship missile that in turn ignites all the high explosive you've got on board, right?

Oh...

Reply to StreetlightX
Gotta have some way to funnel tax payer cash to the contractors.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 05:36 #681277
Quoting neomac
So I’m explicitly asking you - now for the fifth time - to provide evidences of such claim “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another”.


Don't be ridiculous. If this is going to be your approach we can forget it, I've not the time to play these daft games. My point requires only that the policies of the ruling classes cause some deaths among the working classes, there's nothing to discuss on that front because it's either obvious that this is the case and needs no evidence or you really haven't a clue about economics of politics in which case I'm not going to spend my time teaching you.

Quoting neomac
I don’t see the point of your claim “defending one's nation' alone is insufficient as a moral reason” since the “insufficiency” qualification by comparison to other alleged more relevant moral reasons (e.g. fighting against the ruling class, which you admit can be unacknowledged by the oppressed) doesn’t question the fact that Ukrainians actually have an acknowledged moral reason to fight for defending their nation and therefore feel compelled to act upon it as they do.


Of course it questions that fact. If there's no moral case for defending one's nation then those merely 'defending their nation' have no moral case. It could not be more simple.

Quoting neomac
OK then what is the relation between Russian and Ukrainian rich people being in a luxury yachts, while Russian and Ukrainian children starve do death in their rubbish, with the fact that Russian soldiers are exterminating Ukrainian families and children?


Nor did I restrict my analysis to Russia and Ukraine. Are you going to go around the world adding one country at a time or are you going to have an honest conversation including the fact that America and Europe are deeply involved in this conflict?

Quoting neomac
So you are not claiming that the war in Ukraine is a war between American and Russian expansionism as great power politics in Mearsheimer-lingo, now?!


Nope. What the situation is and what our choices are, are two different things.

Quoting neomac
if your moral position and choices should not be constrained within a de facto clash of dominance between American and Russian powers, then also Zelensky moral position and choices should not be constrained within what a de facto war situation is, especially as framed by the enemy.


Who said Zelensky was 'constrained' by the de facto circumstances?

Quoting neomac
You should tell me! You talked about multi-causal analysis, I didn’t!


You introduced maths. Why does a multi-causal analysis entail that I should be able to carry out some mathematical calculation assigning degrees of blame? I can say party X is somewhat to blame and party Y somewhat to blame. That's multi-causal and involves no maths whatsoever.

Quoting neomac
I made my moral assessment based on a posteriori comparative evaluation concerning how much Zelensky’s choices reflect what Ukrainians actually value (defending Ukraine from Russian aggression), how much Ukrainian values are closer to Westerners wrt Russians (Ukrainains are more open to westernization), how much proportionate Russian response to the claimed threat from Ukrainians was, how much Russian aggressive expansionism is an actual existential threat to the West (given the actual Russian cyberwar against the West, the actual nuclear threat against the West, the actual Russian aggressive expansion in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa, and Putin’s actual aspirations to a new world order), and so on, and my conclusion is that I have moral reasons to side with Zelensky’s resistance against Russia.


So a list of arbitrary preferences then...

Quoting neomac
if you contrast a Russian puppet government wrt Zelensky’s, praise the first and blame the second


Where have I done anything of the sort? It's simple

Option 1 - Long drawn out war, thousands dead, crippled by debt, economy run by the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of lobbyists benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue and yellow flag over the parliament.

Option 2 - Less long war, fewer dead, less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue, red and white flag over the parliament.

Option 2 has fewer dead.

Quoting neomac
Sure, but that’s also why you would consider the poor/Palestinian parents immoral because they are knowingly exposing their children to death/sickness/starvation/misery.


Why? People are not normally required to avoid all risk to others in order to avoid being labelled immoral?

Quoting neomac
What are the other solutions you are talking about?


I'm not answering these stupid questions. Either have a serious conversation or don't bother replying.

Quoting neomac
What is the point of such claims, in particular the part I put in bold? I see none.


Seriously. You don't see the point in ascertaining who I'm talking to? What garbage.

Quoting neomac
I have no idea what “the outcome continued war is compared to matters.” is supposed to mean.


Option 1 - Long drawn out war, thousands dead, crippled by debt, economy run by the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of lobbyists benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue and yellow flag over the parliament.

Option 2 - Less long war, fewer dead, less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue, red and white flag over the parliament.

Option 2 has fewer dead.

Quoting neomac
P1. If, in the Ukrainian-Russian negotiation, demands are unacceptable [p] or the assurances aren’t enough [q], then the negotiation fail [r]
P2. In the Ukrainian-Russian negotiation, negotiation demands were unacceptable [p] and assurances weren’t enough [q]
C. The negotiation fail [r]


Well then C doesn't follow because you've not demonstrated P2.

Quoting neomac
Yes I’m claiming there are moral reasons to back a particular strategy, and the particular strategy is supporting Zelensky’s resistance against Russian aggression. Does that sound new to you after all I already, repeatedly and extensively said?


No, but you've yet to adequately support any such reasons other than state some entirely arbitrary preferences and then declare alternative 'preposterous'. If you find the views of anyone who doesn't share your entirely arbitrary preferences 'preposterous' I suggest a debate forum isn't the best place for you.

Quoting neomac
> Fine. Replace all my uses of US, NATO and Europe with the names of their current leaders and influences and then answer the questions.

That’s your job. When you do your job, I’ll do mine.


Seriously? You want me to re-post all of my comments with the names edited. Are you retarded? Can you seriously not handle the task of simply reading one for the other?

Quoting neomac
you are just saying that one party has to converge to the requests of the other party as they are formulated.


Option 1 - Long drawn out war, thousands dead, crippled by debt, economy run by the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of lobbyists benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue and yellow flag over the parliament.

Option 2 - Less long war, fewer dead, less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue, red and white flag over the parliament.

Option 2 has fewer dead.

I'm not saying anyone has to do anything. I'm pointing out that the terms offered by Russia are in this specific case, not applying to every single case in the world (which you bizarrely assumed), are such that it's not worth thousands of lives and huge indebtedness just to avoid them.

Quoting neomac
I would understand better if you could show me how you would answer to your own question: “If the outcomes of strategic decisions are beyond your expertise, then why do you choose to trust the experts and leaders supporting your current position and not those supporting the alternatives?”


I choose the experts whose opinions align with the narratives I prefer. I have world views I find satisfying and if an expert opinion aligns with those I'll choose to believe that expert rather than one whose opinion opposes them. All this assuming the expert in question has sufficient qualification and no obvious conflict of interest. Seeing this crisis as a random outburst from an unprovoked madman (who the US can stamp on with it's shiny military) is useless. It achieves nothing. Seeing this crisis as an inevitable result of capitalist imperialism lends support to the fight against capitalist imperialism, which is a good thing.

Quoting neomac
I was contrasting their opinion with yours and I explained why.
If you can suggest military and foreign policy experts or political commentators that disagree with my views or support your views, I’m open to have a look at them, of course.


I already have.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 05:41 #681278
Quoting Punshhh
It doesn’t look likely to me.


Your assessment of the likelihood is irrelevant. I just can't get my head round the enthusiasm with which a load of armchair laymen want to speculate about the likelihoods, it's like we're betting on a boxing match. I find it more than a little disturbing.

What I'm talking about are the factors that we, as laymen, get to deal with - whose story do you trust and why?
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 05:44 #681279
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
I'm not being right lipped about assessments. Here is one for the current conflict


That talks about Russia's military success in Ukraine. We we're talking about the risk posed by escalating NATO's involvement. Where is the source you're using for your assessment that escalating NATO involvement presents little risk of retaliation from Russia?
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 05:47 #681281
Quoting ssu
Tightlipped? If I remember correctly (I may remember incorrectly), you are the one making accusations of me keeping here a blog and putting links and that I should go and see a therapist.


Sources, not opinions. I have the latter in spades already. You said...

Quoting ssu
wouldn't likely launch WW3 now.


I asked for a source. It's not rocket science. You find the article from which you got that assessment and you paste the web address (or paste the quote).
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 05:55 #681284
Quoting Christoffer
What's scary right now is that Sweden still hasn't 100% decided and it would be a clusterfuck if we didn't join while Finland did. Russia would probably invade Gotland to keep a buffer zone in the Baltic sea if that happens.


Ha! Why on earth would they do that? Russia don't invade countries to keep a buffer between them and NATO, that would be ridiculous (apparently) they only invade former USSR territory to satisfy Putin's personal fantasy of a Russian empire.

So tell me again, how is it that NATO advancement into the Eastern bloc didn't provoke Putin, but advancement into Finland definitely would?
Punshhh April 14, 2022 at 06:46 #681293
Reply to Isaac
Your assessment of the likelihood is irrelevant. I just can't get my head round the enthusiasm with which a load of armchair laymen want to speculate about the likelihoods, it's like we're betting on a boxing match.
We’re all laymen here, or hadn’t you noticed. I’m making a substantive point, which you haven’t countered. That a new iron curtain is descending across Europe.(not a physical barrier, but one in terms of commerce and immigration, or emigration)

I find it more than a little disturbing.
Well welcome to a debating society. If you can’t take the heat don’t enter the kitchen.

What I'm talking about are the factors that we, as laymen, get to deal with - whose story do you trust and why?
So you admit to being a layman. That’s a good start.

I don’t trust anyone’s story, I don’t need to, I make my own assessment.

Now what does a resolution to this conflict look like, without an iron curtain between Europe and Russia?
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 06:52 #681296
Quoting Punshhh
I don’t trust anyone’s story, I don’t need to, I make my own assessment.


Really. You physically go out and gather your own evidence and then learn all the historical, military, political and economic processes acting on that evidence all by yourself. That's really impressive. You must have to get up very early in the morning.

Quoting Punshhh
Now what does a resolution to this conflict look like, without an iron curtain between Europe and Russia?


Well... Imagine what an Iron Curtain between Europe and Russia would consist of. Now imagine it not there. Voilà. That's what it would look like.
Punshhh April 14, 2022 at 07:22 #681300
Reply to Isaac We’re in the 21st century. There are multiple media resources.

So, without that iron curtain. After the conflict has been resolved. Will every Russian citizen be free to emigrate?
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 07:22 #681301
Quoting Punshhh
Now what does a resolution to this conflict look like, without an iron curtain between Europe and Russia?


A resolution of this conflict might look like the death of Putin -- natural or otherwise -- and/or his replacement by somebody less confrontational and militaristic. It is probably what it will take for this conflict to end for good.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 07:25 #681302
Quoting Punshhh
We’re in the 21st century. There are multiple media resources.


Uh huh. And you can't believe them all. Hence the question - whose story do you trust and why?

Quoting Punshhh
So, without that iron curtain. After the conflict has been resolved. Will every Russian citizen be free to emigrate?


Yes. Since you stipulated that an iron curtain was a barrier to migration, then it stands to reason that without it emigration would be relatively free.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 07:53 #681304
Quoting Olivier5
A resolution of this conflict might look like the death of Putin


Yes. And then it turns out that Putin was Zelensky's father all along but turned evil by Biden back when he was training to be a dictator... Brilliant. Just don't encourage anyone to make the sequel, they're shit.
Punshhh April 14, 2022 at 08:02 #681306
Reply to Isaac It’s not necessary to trust a media resource in order to derive information from it. Better to take a broad take of many sources to arrive at a sense of what is happening on the ground.

emigration would be relatively free.

And when growing numbers of people emigrate due to the dire standard of living in Russia due to sanctions etc. Presumably Putin will seek to restrict the numbers leaving. ( presumably you can see where this is leading)
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 08:05 #681307
Reply to Isaac It could be far simpler than any of your crap. People die. It happens.
FreeEmotion April 14, 2022 at 08:11 #681308
Reply to Olivier5 I am not for the death of the good Vlad. A more subtle exit strategy would be to finish off the SMO one way or another declare 'victory' and step down. As a further plus, turning himself to the ICJ for war crimes investigations will make him a hero of sorts. There's this stand-by Medvedev, who looks like a pretty decent replacement, and voted as the person least likely to invade another country (source unknown).

The good Vlad is free to meditate on his mistakes in the comfort of his Yachts. If he did the SMO to avoid genocide, then he will realize that after a point it is pointless. He knew he could lose.
FreeEmotion April 14, 2022 at 08:14 #681309
Reply to Punshhh Check the number of people leaving Ukraine before the SMO and their incomes vs Russia. Not all that great.
Punshhh April 14, 2022 at 08:17 #681310
Reply to Olivier5 Perhaps the removal of Putin would improve the situation. But I think the whole regime would need to be changed, or another Putin clone might emerge with no change. Also without wholesale reform of governance in Russia, European leaders might not be able to develop trust in any regime which emerges.
FreeEmotion April 14, 2022 at 08:22 #681311
While we are at it, what about the Obama- Biden regime? Would't that be a nice change?
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 08:26 #681312
Quoting Punshhh
another Putin clone might emerge with no change.


Yes, that's possible of course. I am just unable to see how Putin could swallow a serious peace treaty with Ukraine.
FreeEmotion April 14, 2022 at 08:29 #681313
Quoting Isaac
And your opinion as to the most likely outcome?
— Punshhh

I don't really have one. At a guess I'd say that there'll either be a deal which gives independence to Dombas and Crimea...


I looks like it is totally upto President Zelesnkyy and his brothers-in-arms in the West, so it is his call. So it makes to sense as to what will satisfy them. He may reach an agreement in May, he said, so that date seems to be in his mind, any Ukraine - significant dates in May...

Not Ukraine. Some truth always slips out. Russia. Victory day. Brilliant public relations move.

Vladimir Putin's 'end date' for Ukraine war matches Russia's WW2 victory, spooks say
Reports from inside Ukraine and Russia have suggested that the Kremlin is eyeing a potential end date for its invasion of Ukraine, considering May 9, the anniversary for their WWII Victory Day


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putins-end-date-ukraine-26553858
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 08:32 #681314
Quoting FreeEmotion
I am not for the death of the good Vlad.


Only Dracula is immortal.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 08:33 #681315
KYIV/LVIV, Ukraine, April 14 (Reuters) - Russia said on Thursday the flagship of its Black Sea fleet was seriously damaged and its crew evacuated following an explosion that a Ukrainian official said was the result of a missile strike.

Russia's defence ministry said a fire on the Moskva missile cruiser caused ammunition to blow up, Interfax news agency reported.

It did not say what caused the fire but Maksym Marchenko, the Ukrainian governor of the region around the Black Sea port of Odesa, said the Moskva had been hit by two Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles.

Ukraine's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment and Reuters was unable to verify either side's claims.

The Moskva is the second major ship known to have suffered serious damage since the start of the war. Last month Ukraine said it had destroyed a landing support ship, the Orsk, on the smaller Sea of Azov.
Tzeentch April 14, 2022 at 08:35 #681317
Quoting Olivier5
A resolution of this conflict might look like the death of Putin


I hope you're not implying assassination.

It would not be beneficial to world peace that assassinating each other's heads of state becomes an accepted practice in international politics. There's a reason it is not an accepted practice today.

Besides, whoever would succeed Putin would have to deal with the exact same geopolitical, military and socio-economic problems Russia faces, and after an assassination the West will be a lot less likely to be part of a peaceful solution to those problems.
ssu April 14, 2022 at 08:44 #681326
Quoting Manuel
All I'm saying, is something that I think should not be controversial: no big power would want a hostile military nation on its border.

I would put it in a different way:

Big powers justify (or portray) their imperial aspirations with reasoning that they are threatened by hostile powers. And if the little country they take interest in cannot be in any way a threat, then it's the hypothetical argument of another great power using that little country.

After the Soviet Union collapsed only the Armenian-Azeri conflict wasn't about Russia having these imperial aspirations of being a Great Power. Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and naturally Ukraine have been those places where Russia has intervened with "peacekeepers", with puppet states and now with a "special military operation" and "denazification".

Quoting Changeling
They're not Mexican, either. Lol

California to Oregon used to be Mexican, besides Texas. Of course much of California was like the Baja California then and not many people besides native Americans lived their.
ssu April 14, 2022 at 08:53 #681336
Reply to Olivier5The old Soviet "Slava" got it. Talk about a warship boasting with huge missiles.

I think this puts an end to the thoughts that there could be a maritime invasion. From the debacle with the "Alligator"-landing ship that was providing supplies now to this shows how vulnerable you are without total air dominance. Few anti-ship missiles carried on a truck can tip the scales.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 08:53 #681337
Quoting Tzeentch
I hope you're not implying assassination.


Not implying anything in particular. You may have noted the words immediately following those you quoted: "natural or otherwise".

He's old, he could blow a gasket tomorrow. Or there could be a palace revolution. Or the Ukrainians could have a go at it, in a tit for tat mode. Or suicide. Same result, and the way to get there would not necessarily make much of a difference.

I'm just saying that Mr Vladimir Putin is the guy who started it and I doubt he has it in him to stop it. So there's IMO no path to durable peace while he is in the equation.

Quoting Tzeentch
It would not be beneficial to world peace that assassinating each other's heads of state becomes an accepted practice in international politics. There's a reason it is not an accepted practice today.


Not accepted by whom, pray tell? The US tried to murder Castro dozens of times. The French helped locate and kill Ghadafi. The Russians tried to off Zelensky too. I could go on.

Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 08:57 #681338
Quoting ssu
Talk about a warship boasting with huge missiles.


Yes, these missile ships must be real power kegs. You don't want a fire in the ammo depos...
Tzeentch April 14, 2022 at 08:58 #681340
Quoting Olivier5
Not accepted by whom, pray tell? The US tried to murder Castro dozens of times. The French helped locate and kill Ghadafi. The Russians tried to off Zelensky too. I could go on.


That certain nations are horribly hypocritical when it comes to their ideals and upholding international law is nothing new, but assassinations are certainly controversial and not accepted.

When powerful nations bully weak nations they may get away with it regardless.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 09:00 #681341
Quoting Punshhh
It’s not necessary to trust a media resource in order to derive information from it.


Of course it is, otherwise you're deriving misinformation from it.

Quoting Punshhh
Better to take a broad take of many sources to arrive at a sense of what is happening on the ground.


How exactly? How does your 'broad take' give you a sense of what's happening on the ground - give me an example of a state of affairs on the ground you've gained a sense of by this 'broad take' of many sources?

Quoting Punshhh
when growing numbers of people emigrate due to the dire standard of living in Russia due to sanctions etc. Presumably Putin will seek to restrict the numbers leaving.


Well no, because that would be the 'iron curtain' you were referring to and you asked me what a situation without it would look like. Such a situation would be one in which he didn't do that.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 09:02 #681342
Quoting Tzeentch
That certain nations are horribly hypocritical when it comes to their ideals and upholding international law is nothing new, but assassinations are certainly controversial and not accepted.


Once again: not accepted by whom? By those who do it secretly? Putin is an assassin himself. What right does he have to a decent treatment? Who lives by the sword may die by the sword.
Tzeentch April 14, 2022 at 09:06 #681344
Reply to Olivier5 The international community, obviously, including those nations that are powerful enough to get away with it when it suits them.

Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 09:10 #681347
Quoting Tzeentch
The international community


It's an oft mentioned phrase, but there is no such thing as "an international community", I'm afraid. "Community" means having shared goals and values, and I wonder what those would be... Just because we're all on the same boat called 'Earth' doesn't make of us a 'crew', a 'team' or a 'community'.

What diplomats mean by that phrase is usually the West.
Benkei April 14, 2022 at 09:12 #681349
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Did Russia invade Ukraine in 2022 because the US set up missiles in Europe decades ago to counter the USSR?


I missed your earlier post. I agree with most what you say so I'll just cherrypick what I think is a misrepresentation. Russia invaded because of the continued talks and reaffirmation of Ukraine joining NATO along with a history of NATO expanding where Russia didn't want that.

Also, here's a decent article in the Guardian from yesterday:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/13/nato-ukraine-russia-end-war
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 09:20 #681350
Quoting Benkei
here's a decent article in the Guardian from yesterday:


It's not saying much about what NATO can do...
Christoffer April 14, 2022 at 09:24 #681351
Reply to Isaac

Why can't there be different reasons for different invasions? Shouldn't a professor expert be able to grasp that two nations with two different positions in relation to Russia could mean two different reasons for invasion? Russia being angry about the Nato border expansion is not the same as invading Ukraine, even if Nato is a driving force for pushing the invasion to occur. But I guess it's hard for you to understand that there can be different reasons even if Nato is involved in both. Nato is a driving force for Russia's military actions in different ways for different nations. For the old USSR states, their membership would block any reestablishment of the old empire. While Nato in Finland and Sweden would enlarge Nato to the north much further as well as block much of the Baltic sea. That's why I didn't say Russia would invade Sweden entirely, but just invade Gotland, since that enables a larger presence in the Baltic sea.

But it doesn't matter anyway since Nato wouldn't invade Russia, this is just Russia's paranoia driving their actions and Nato needs to expand against such mental illness. Russia is just too stupid to understand that its aggression is what drives Nato, both Sweden and Finland wouldn't have thought to join Nato if it weren't for bloathead Putin. Russia does not have power over other nations and any argument positioning other nations as needing to do what Russia requests and wants is just Russian apologetics.

Sweden and Finland may join Nato because WE want to be secure against Russia, but I guess you would point out that we are slaves to the US for doing so. :rofl: Alright Dr Professor
Tzeentch April 14, 2022 at 09:24 #681352
Reply to Olivier5 Arguing semantics already? Or you really want me to believe you don't understand what I mean with the term "international community"?
Changeling April 14, 2022 at 09:30 #681354
Quoting ssu
California to Oregon used to be Mexican, besides Texas. Of course much of California was like the Baja California then and not many people besides native Americans lived their.


I was referring to the names themselves, and implying the places were under Castilian rule.
Punshhh April 14, 2022 at 09:44 #681356
Reply to Isaac
Of course it is, otherwise you're deriving misinformation from it.

That’s a simplification, there is real information in such a bulletin. Even the biased narrative is in itself and contains information.

The very fact that this subject is being discussed here in an intelligent way is proof of people deriving knowledge of what’s happening on the ground. As we are all sitting in our armchairs.

Well no, because that would be the 'iron curtain' you were referring to and you asked me what a situation without it would look like. Such a situation would be one in which he didn't do that.
And when there is only one person left in Russia, we’ll apart from those who are paid by Putin to stay there? Will things just carry on as normal?
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 09:45 #681357
Quoting Christoffer
Why can't there be different reasons for different invasions?


There can be. You are arguing that there actually are, not merely that there could be. That's what we professors call a 'difference'.

Quoting Christoffer
That's why I didn't say Russia would invade Sweden entirely, but just invade Gotland, since that enables a larger presence in the Baltic sea.


I see, so Russia invading Crimea or Donbas would be something NATO expansion might reasonably be expected to have provoked?

Quoting Christoffer
Russia is just too stupid to understand that its aggression is what drives Nato, both Sweden and Finland wouldn't have thought to join Nato if it weren't for bloathead Putin.


Yeah, and he smells too, and apparently, he rides a girl's bike, what a wally!

Quoting Christoffer
Sweden and Finland may join Nato because WE want to be secure against Russia, but I guess you would point out that we are slaves to the US for doing so.


Well yeah.

User image

Quoting Christoffer
Dr Professor


Just 'Professor' will do, thank you.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 09:50 #681358
Quoting Tzeentch
Arguing semantics already? Or you really want me to believe you don't understand what I mean with the term "international community"?


I asked you a precise question: not accepted by whom? And your answer has been quite vague so far. The concept of 'international community' is vague, whether you realize it or not. The "international community" doesn't have a precise contour, and as the phrase tends to be used in the media and diplomacy, it stands for "the West".
ssu April 14, 2022 at 09:54 #681359
Quoting Isaac
I asked for a source. It's not rocket science. You find the article from which you got that assessment and you paste the web address (or paste the quote).


If the referral is that "to assist a third country with weapons" didn't mean that the Cold War would escalate to WW3, I think history pretty well shows that.

Russia's aid and actual involvement in the fighting in Korea against the US -> didn't escalate to WW3
Russia's aid to North Vietnam fighting the US -> didn't escalate to WW3
US aid to the Mujaheddin fighting the Soviets -> didn't escalate to WW3

These are example were the other side has assisted a country or faction that is directly engaged with the other sides armed forces. In none of these cases it escalated to WW3.

This in not rocket science. It' basic historical knowledge.
Christoffer April 14, 2022 at 09:58 #681361
Quoting Isaac
Dr Professor
— Christoffer

Just 'Professor' will do, thank you.


Ok, dr Professor Expert.

You're still arguing the same premises that you've done for over a hundred pages, so it doesn't matter what people tell you since you don't even really answer to the premises and points others make, just cherry-pick what is needed to repeat yourself once more. You think people don't need education and you continue to be a Russian apologetic, there's nothing any argument seems to adjust or change, just like a detailed argument against your other ideas didn't change anything. What's the point of having philosophical arguments if you just parrot yourself through hundreds of pages. Discussing with you is irrelevant and pointless.
Christoffer April 14, 2022 at 10:02 #681364
Quoting ssu
This in not rocket science. It' basic historical knowledge.


He's unable to grasp such things, he's opposed to formal education, so I guess he's opposed to learning basic historical knowledge. Or at least it's hard to learn such things if expecting students to learn by themselves without guidance. If this would have been a normal thread on this forum he would have been banned for low-quality posts a long time ago, but here he can roam free.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 10:02 #681365
Quoting Punshhh
That’s a simplification, there is real information in such a bulletin. Even the biased narrative is in itself and contains information.


But also dis-information. Or are you saying that all bulletins are factually accurate? The task is to determine which of two opposing (or non-overlapping) narratives you're going to support. Simply saying there's 'information' in them all is insufficient for you to choose between them.

Quoting Punshhh
The very fact that this subject is being discussed here in an intelligent way is proof of people deriving knowledge of what’s happening on the ground.


How? Everything said in this entire thread could be false. The fact that you find it to be intelligent doesn't have any bearing on whether it's actually the case.

Quoting Punshhh
when there is only one person left in Russia, we’ll apart from those who are paid by Putin to stay there? Will things just carry on as normal?


I doubt it, not with only one person.

Isaac April 14, 2022 at 10:04 #681366
Quoting ssu
If the referral is that "to assist a third country with weapons" didn't mean that the Cold War would escalate to WW3, I think history pretty well shows that.


What. The fact that we haven't yet had World War Three shows that we couldn't initiate World War Three? That's something of an heterodox argument to say the least.

Quoting ssu
This in not rocket science. It' basic historical knowledge.


So the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists are what? Too stupid?
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 10:05 #681368
Quoting Isaac
So the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists are what? Too stupid?


I'm sure they know a lot about atoms.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 10:09 #681369
Quoting Olivier5
I'm sure they know a lot about atoms.


They're journalists, not scientists.
Tzeentch April 14, 2022 at 10:15 #681371
Reply to Olivier5

International community; members of the United Nations.

Do not accept assassination of heads of state as legal practice by virtue of having signed the United Nations charter which forbids the targeted killing of non-combatants under international law.

But you already know these things. You're just looking to start an argument for who knows what reason.
Christoffer April 14, 2022 at 10:44 #681384
Quoting Tzeentch
which forbids the targeted killings of non-combatants under international law.


If the head of state is ordering top military generals on matters of military actions, isn't that like killing generals on the battlefield? They're part of the operation. If Putin is in direct line of command, it's strategic to take him out in order to disorient the chain of command of the ongoing conflict.

Isn't what you are referring to regarded in peacetime, like if some nation conducts an operation to kill a president without that nation being in direct open conflict with the nation conducting that operation? Otherwise (and if our modern international laws of war existed back then) if Hitler didn't kill himself, having the invading alliance troops in Berlin send in an operation to kill Hitler would not have been a violation in such times of war.
Tzeentch April 14, 2022 at 11:11 #681390
Quoting Christoffer
If the head of state is ordering top military generals on matters of military actions, isn't that like killing generals on the battlefield?


You may have your own views on this, but at least in the modern nation state there is a clear division between political leaders and military leaders. But even the assassination of military leaders is a controversial topic, as we have seen with the targeted killing of Iranian general Soulemani.

Military leaders plan and execute military operations and Putin cannot be said to be "part of an operation" in a military sense, though he is of course involved, but indirectly.

Quoting Christoffer
If Putin is in direct line of command, it's strategic to take him out in order to disorient the chain of command of the ongoing conflict.


Things can be strategic and yet impermissable under international law.

Quoting Christoffer
Isn't what you are referring to regarded in peacetime, ...


No, the UN charter and similar international legal documents are active at all times, unless specified otherwise, like with International Humanitarian Law, for example.

Quoting Christoffer
Otherwise (and if our modern international laws of war existed back then) if Hitler didn't kill himself, having the invading alliance troops in Berlin send in an operation to kill Hitler would not have been a violation in such times of war.


It's hard to say whether Hitler couldn't also be considered a military leader, and therefore a legitimate military target.

Besides this, even if we consider him a strictly political leader (which he certainly wasn't) he was the orchestrator of a genocide.

As much as I condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I don't think Putin matches either of these criteria by any stretch of the imagination.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 11:16 #681394
Quoting Tzeentch
But you already know these things. You're just looking to start an argument for who knows what reason.


No. You started arguing something rather vague. I'm just trying to understand your point. But you apparently don't care enough to make a clear point, and you're probably right about that: wallowing in ambiguity is much safer for jokers.

The UN Charter forbids a nation to attack another without a mandate from the Security Council, and enshrines the right for a country to defend itself. Putin is the commander in chief who decided to invade and bomb Ukraine. For the Ukrainians, killing him would be fair play as per the UN charter, although i agree such reasoning does not apply to non-belligerants.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 11:19 #681395
Reply to Isaac Atomic scientists are not scientists?
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 11:25 #681397
Quoting Olivier5
Atomic scientists are not scientists?


No. The 'Bulletin of Atomic Scientists'

Quoting https://thebulletin.org/about-us/
the Bulletin is a media organization, posting free articles on its website and publishing a premium digital magazine. But we are much more. The Bulletin’s website, iconic Doomsday Clock, and regular events help advance actionable ideas at a time when technology is outpacing our ability to control it. The Bulletin focuses on three main areas: nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies. What connects these topics is a driving belief that because humans created them, we can control them.

The Bulletin is an independent, nonprofit 501 (c) (3) organization. We gather a diverse array of the most informed and influential voices tracking man-made threats and bring their innovative thinking to a global audience. We apply intellectual rigor to the conversation and do not shrink from alarming truths.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 11:28 #681398
Reply to Isaac You keep repeating that journalists are suspect, while treating as gospel a bulletin who pretends to be of scientists but is in fact written by journalists. Mmmmokay.
Punshhh April 14, 2022 at 11:38 #681402
Reply to Isaac
Simply saying there's 'information' in them all is insufficient for you to choose between them.

Yes, so one makes an assessment.

How? Everything said in this entire thread could be false. The fact that you find it to be intelligent doesn't have any bearing on whether it's actually the case.

It’s unlikely to be false if it’s also being reported on multiple global news outlets, for example.

I doubt it, not with only one person

So your description of a settlement absent an iron curtain, is one indistinguishable from one including an iron curtain? Or in other words, no answer to my substantive point.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 11:59 #681408
Quoting Olivier5
You keep repeating that journalists are suspect, while treating as gospel


Where have I treated it as gospel?

Quoting Olivier5
a bulletin who pretends to be of scientists


They're not 'pretending' anything. They gather together the opinion of scientists. It says so in the fucking quote.

The Bulletin began as an emergency action, created by scientists who saw an immediate need for a public reckoning in the aftermath of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. One mission was to urge fellow scientists to help shape national and international policy. A second mission was to help the public understand what the bombings meant for humanity.


Members of the Board of Sponsors are recruited by their peers from the world’s most accomplished science and security leaders to reinforce the importance of the Bulletin’s activities and publications. The Board grew out of the Emergency Committee of Atomic Scientists, which Einstein wrote, “was organized in August 1946 to support the educational activities undertaken by the various groups of atomic scientists.”

Members of the Board of Sponsors are consulted on key issues, including the setting of the Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock. Members, which have counted 40 Nobel laureates over the years, are welcome to attend all meetings.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 12:06 #681412
Quoting Punshhh
Yes, so one makes an assessment.


...and back to my original question. Whose story do you trust and why?

Quoting Punshhh
It’s unlikely to be false if it’s also being reported on multiple global news outlets, for example.


If global news outlets report two different things then one of them is (all other things being equal) exactly 50% likely to be false. Not 'unlikely' at all. You do know the 'multiple global news outlets' don't all get their data from different sources don't you? If you've got six newspapers reporting the Pentagon's release of some intelligence data that's not six confirmatory sources, that's one source with six outlets.

Besides, there's almost universal agreement as to the basic facts, it's the analysis which differs. So how does having six people repeat the same analysis corroborate it, talk me through the mechanism by which greater agreement there affects reality.

Quoting Punshhh
So your description of a settlement absent an iron curtain, is one indistinguishable from one including an iron curtain?


What? I thought you said an iron curtain would restrict migration. My description is of a border which doesn't restrict migration. They don't sound indistinguishable to me. Perhaps you could clarify how they're the same.
Punshhh April 14, 2022 at 12:59 #681427
Reply to Isaac I trust my own assessment, that’s it. Do you have an unbiased source that you trust?

I’m not going to quote you, or get into misunderstandings. My point about emigration is that it is one of the reasons an iron curtain will be introduced. Along with commercial reasons. I can’t see how this can be avoided, can you?
Streetlight April 14, 2022 at 14:24 #681451
Oh look everything Radhika Desai says is 100% correct:

The conflict that the West calls Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and which Moscow calls its special military operations for Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification, is not a conflict between Ukraine and Russia; it is a phase in the hybrid war that the West has been waging for decades against any country that chooses an economic path other than subordination to the United States.In its current phase, this war takes the form of a US-led NATO war over Ukraine. In this war, Ukraine is the terrain, and a pawn – one that can be sacrificed.

This fact is hidden by wall-to-wall Western propaganda portraying Russian President Vladimir Putin as either mad or a devil hell-bent on recreating the Soviet Union. This pre-empts any questions about why Putin might be doing this, about the rationale for Russian actions.The United States, having sought without success to dominate the world, wages this war to stall its historic decline, the loss of what remains of its power.

This decline has accelerated in recent decades as neoliberalism turned its capitalist economic system unproductive, financialised, predatory, speculative, and ecologically destructive, massively diminishing Washington’s already dubious attractions to its allies around the world.Meanwhile, socialist China’s productive economy performed spectacularly and became a new pole of attraction in the world economy. This conflict, therefore, has long roots in the decaying capitalism headquartered in the US.


Understanding this war as 100% a symptom of the declining - and thus ever more dangerous - power of the US is the basis from which any understanding of what is going on needs to proceed. Anything else is fluff.

https://multipolarista.substack.com/p/the-us-war-over-ukraine-is-a-phase?s=r
Manuel April 14, 2022 at 14:27 #681453
Quoting ssu
And if the little country they take interest in cannot be in any way a threat, then it's the hypothetical argument of another great power using that little country.


Could you rephrase this, I'm not following.

I do agree with your first statement, prior to this. That's commonly part of imperial dogma, they do need to justify what they're doing.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 14:31 #681454
Quoting Isaac
Where have I treated it as gospel?


In your posts. Why do you trust them?
frank April 14, 2022 at 15:12 #681472
Reply to Olivier5
How long is this war going to continue in your view?
Christoffer April 14, 2022 at 15:29 #681481
Quoting Tzeentch
You may have your own views on this, but at least in the modern nation state there is a clear division between political leaders and military leaders. But even the assassination of military leaders is a controversial topic, as we have seen with the targeted killing of Iranian general Soulemani.

Military leaders plan and execute military operations and Putin cannot be said to be "part of an operation" in a military sense, though he is of course involved, but indirectly.


Yes, but Russia isn't a normal modern state playing by the same rules, as seen with the war crimes happening. And Putin is very much involved, probably more than normal heads of state. And the fact he is jailing people in his inner circle now shows that he's at the helm of everything.

Modern nations play by the international rules of law, which Russia doesn't so they've lost the protection of being handled like any other nation. We can't treat criminal states with the same rule book.

Quoting Tzeentch
Things can be strategic and yet impermissable under international law.


They already broke such laws. If a criminal is shooting at the police after the police have shouted at them to put down the weapon and apply to the set rules of society, the police have the authority to shoot down the criminal. This is for the protection of other people around. So if Russia breaks international law, there's justification to take out their head of state and people involved with letting war crimes happen. This is to protect such things from happening in the future, to protect other people from being victims of those war crimes. Killing Hitler earlier would probably have destabilized and fastened the collapse of the Nazi regime, it would have been the correct thing to do, much like it is now.

Quoting Tzeentch
No, the UN charter and similar international legal documents are active at all times, unless specified otherwise, like with International Humanitarian Law, for example.


So, Russia's leaders don't apply to this and therefore have no protection from it, like states following international law.

Quoting Tzeentch
It's hard to say whether Hitler couldn't also be considered a military leader, and therefore a legitimate military target.


He was a legitimate target, he ordered troops, he gave the order for children and old people to oppose the alliance when entering Berlin.

Quoting Tzeentch
Besides this, even if we consider him a strictly political leader (which he certainly wasn't) he was the orchestrator of a genocide.


And what is happening in Ukraine right now? What about how Putin and his minions spread the rhetoric that being a "Ukrainian" is "invalid". It's still up for debate if there's a genocide going on, but there's a lot constantly being uncovered.

Quoting Tzeentch
As much as I condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I don't think Putin matches either of these criteria by any stretch of the imagination.


I think that's where we differ. Many said the same about Hitler, Stalin and Mao back in the day when information were still being gathered, but I have no problem considering Putin being cut from the same cloth as other authoritarian despots.
Count Timothy von Icarus April 14, 2022 at 15:42 #681490
Reply to Isaac
That talks about Russia's military success in Ukraine.


It talks about Russia's inability to mobilize combat power and the problem of run away morale issues and casualties making most battalion tactical groups unusable for serious offensive maneuvers out east. I don't know if I'd call that success.

An assessment of Russian capabilities from last week, based on Russia's actual effectiveness in a war, seems a lot more relevant than assessments from 2016. Of course Russia experts were publishing on Russia's major efforts to modernize its armed forces after the Georgia debacle. Performance in Syria, while limited, was impressive at first (at least compared to low expectations).

The open question was always if the modernization efforts would root out enough corruption and nepotism to be effective. Russia's invasion stalling out less than 100 miles from the border due to bad logistics, the suicidal air assaults and VDV deployments without proper SEAD and follow up ground support, the total inability to bring down the Ukrainian AA network or airforce, and the total absence of anything resembling sustained, complex air operations answered a lot of those open questions.

We've now seen the military in action. We've seen the cheap Chinese tires mounted on $13 million AA systems leading to ruined rims and abandoned systems. We've seen them using completely open coms that civilians around the world can listen too because they lack a secure coms network. We've seen tank companies parked in big squares within Ukranian artillery range because crews need to shout at each other due to bad coms (and the consequences of this as Ukrainian drones range and video the tanks, and shells begin falling). We've seen a slew of general officers and colonels killed because they have to go to the front to talk to their men due to bad comms. We've seen successful Ukrainian air raids into Russia proper to hit supplies in non-stealth, last-gen rotary wing aircraft, due to inept AA preparedness. The assessment is now that NATO would have a relatively easy time dismantling Russia's conventional forces in defensive operations. It all looks bad.

Vis-á-vis the nuclear threat, if you like Chatam House, look there:


It is always possible – although assumed to be highly unlikely – that Putin may decide to launch a long-range ballistic missile attack against the US, but he knows – as do all his officials – that this would be the end of Russia.


https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/how-likely-use-nuclear-weapons-russia

The US has been practicing nuclear supremacy against Russia since the fall of the USSR. It has a large nuclear arsenal in close proximity for taking out Russia's nuclear assets on the ground. It has successful missile defense systems (how successful is unclear, the main Alaskan interceptors have a 99+% chance of shooting down an ICBM when four are assigned to a target, but the portable missiles in Europe have much less clear effectiveness. We only know they can shoot down ICBMs because Trump, IMO stupidly, decided to do a public test to show off). But even if US missile defense didn't exist, it would still be in a solid position to hit launch sites if it saw Russian assets moving on satalites.

Everyone takes the risk of nuclear war very seriously. No one wants to count on relatively untested defense measures. At the same time, there is definitely an assessment that Putin is not going to give a suicidal order to start a nuclear war (and that people wouldn't obey it even if given) over Russia getting control Ukraine (the main benefits of which are prestige and control of gas fields and pipelines, whose profits will mostly be funneled to oligarchs anyhow.)
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 16:19 #681499
Reply to frank I think the war will go on untill a new Russian president is ushered in, who is psychologically and politically capable of making peace. There might be ceasefires now and then though, or long periods of low intensity conflict.
frank April 14, 2022 at 16:32 #681502
Quoting Olivier5
think the war will go on untill a new Russian president is ushered in, who is psychologically and politically capable of making peace. There might be ceasefires now and then though, or long periods of low intensity conflict.


Wow. That might take a while.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 16:41 #681504
Reply to frank It could take a few years, yes. But I could be wrong; Mr Putin could still surprise us.
SophistiCat April 14, 2022 at 16:56 #681508
Quoting Manuel
What Russia is doing is still awful and criminal, they shouldn't have done it, the punch is coming back with interest added. But from a "realpolitik" perspective, it makes sense.


So as you admit, the invasion hurts Russia big time. And it will continue to hurt for many years to come. In addition to the human cost (both from war casualties and from the massively accelerated brain drain), its economic, scientific and technological development will be thrown back by decades. Its foreign relations are in shambles. Its security situation, even from the paranoid Kremlin point of view, will be worse than it was before, with NATO strengthened, expanded and on full alert.

Then in what fantasy world does it "make sense"? Just saying "realpolitik" over and and over, like a magic incantation, won't cut it.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 17:25 #681512
Quoting Punshhh
I trust my own assessment


Well, that's either insanely egotistical or just plain insane. Why would you trust your own assessment? these are matters of extremely complex military strategy, diplomacy, economics, and politics. Do you think you're qualified to make anything like a sensible assessment of the evidence?

Quoting Punshhh
Do you have an unbiased source that you trust?


No. I have a number of biased sources I trust.

Quoting Punshhh
My point about emigration is that it is one of the reasons an iron curtain will be introduced. Along with commercial reasons. I can’t see how this can be avoided, can you?


Yes easily. By the things you imagine happening, not happening. I mean when you imagine events playing out some way do you seriously think you're so infallible that you can't even imagine how they could play out any other way? That's just not normal.
Streetlight April 14, 2022 at 17:26 #681513
Reply to SophistiCat It makes no less sense than the US letting its society fester and waste away to oligarchy and fascism while spending billions of dollars on wars on the literal other side of the planet to shore up its dying empire. At least Russia is playing the imperialist with its own god damn borders.

Although I agree this isn't realpolitick. This is a plutocratic capitalism that sees it's extractive mechanisms threatened by a Western-oriented neoliberalism that would decimate its parochialist economic independence and control. And that does make sense, although much to be said about the murderous execution.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 17:37 #681519
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
An assessment of Russian capabilities from last week, based on Russia's actual effectiveness in a war, seems a lot more relevant than assessments from 2016. Of course Russia experts were publishing on Russia's major efforts to modernize its armed forces after the Georgia debacle. Performance in Syria, while limited, was impressive at first (at least compared to low expectations).


We're talking about nuclear responses, not ground force invasions.

Nonetheless, it's not about the details of the assessment, it's about the scale of the risk. I expect you've done a risk assessment (most people have these days) one multiplies the risk by the harm. The harm is nuclear annihilation. The risk doesn't have to be very high for it to be a sensible policy to back out of situations where that might be the outcome, and the rewards have to be enormous. 'Sticking it' to Putin because you think it's 'quite unlikely' that he'll start world war three is adolescent angst, not grown up global diplomacy.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Vis-á-vis the nuclear threat, if you like Chatam House, look there:


Again the article is interesting, but doesn't even mention the BAS risk of escalation from NATO, so I don't see how it's relevant.


Streetlight April 14, 2022 at 17:40 #681520
*Make nuclear annihilation taboo again*

We should probably treat people who think a tiny bit of nuclear armageddon is OK the same way we treat pedophiles but also alot worse.
Manuel April 14, 2022 at 17:51 #681525
Punshhh April 14, 2022 at 17:55 #681528
Reply to Isaac
Yes easily. By the things you imagine happening, not happening.


Enlighten me. I really can’t see a way back from my conclusion (short of total regime change in Russia).

By your lack of a description of a settlement not requiring some kind of iron curtain. I must conclude that you can’t conceive of an alternative.
RogueAI April 14, 2022 at 18:09 #681537
I thought this was interesting:
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/time-for-putins-hail-mary-pass/
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 18:16 #681538
Quoting StreetlightX
We should probably treat people who think a tiny bit of nuclear armageddon is OK the same way we treat pedophiles but also alot worse.


Famously, the cockroaches aren't worried.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 18:28 #681542
Quoting Punshhh
Enlighten me. I really can’t see a way back from my conclusion (short of total regime change in Russia).


I'm not sure what more I can do about your lack of imagination. Imagine the things you think will happen... Now imagine them not happening.

You asked...

Quoting Punshhh
Now what does a resolution to this conflict look like, without an iron curtain between Europe and Russia?


The answer is literally anything except a resolution with an iron curtain. It's just odd that you need me to describe one such resolution in order for you to understand the concept. The alternative is that an iron curtain is literally inevitable, the future is predetermined. You surely must realise how odd that is?
frank April 14, 2022 at 18:30 #681544
Quoting Olivier5
It could take a few years, yes. But I could be wrong; Mr Putin could still surprise us.


Supported with oil dollars and conscription? Will that just hollow out the Russian economy? More than it already was?
Count Timothy von Icarus April 14, 2022 at 18:37 #681545
Reply to Isaac
Sure, there are worries about escalation. The alternative is for the US not to live up to its security guarantees to Ukraine, which also risks nuclear war. Because if the US doesn't live up to its obligations in Europe, Asian nations are likely to think they won't fulfill their obligations there. This could have the effect of making a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan or other territorial claims more likely. It would also make China's neighbors, four of whom are technologically advanced states capable of rapidly developing nuclear weapons, more likely to develop such a deterrent.

Non-proliferation research/efforts have long centered around the idea that conflicts are more likely when there are more parties involved, and so stopping nations from developing nuclear weapons, even stable allies like Korea and Japan, is a top priority.

Which gets us back to why the US had obligations to Ukraine in the first place. When the USSR collapsed, Ukraine was left with a nuclear arsenal. Obviously, Russia wanted the weapons back as well. Internal relations with Ukraine have not always been all that great, you know, the whole millions of people killed in a genocide in living memory, mass enslavement and deportations, etc.

To facilitate a reduction of the number of countries with nuclear weapons, the US made security promises to Ukraine in exchange for them delivering the weapons to Moscow, something Moscow agreed to.

With that in mind, how does everything said about reckless escalation not apply to Russia attacking a country that the US has openly promised to protect in coordination with Russia?

Aid is a calculated risk. Military aid to Taiwan, Korea, and Japan also angers China, a nuclear power. US involvement in any conventional skirmish would also increase the risks involved. However, it is totally unclear if the US saying: "sorry guys, you're on your own," would be less risky, since it would likely have resulted in those Asian nations fielding their own nuclear weapons, and Ukraine never having given up theirs.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 18:59 #681555
Quoting frank
Supported with oil dollars and conscription?


I'm no military expert, but my understanding is that Russia is able to keep up with a high intensity conflict only for a few weeks, maybe a month. They have already reduced their frontline attacks, perhaps temporarily. But they could keep bombing civilians and occupying Ukraine for a long time.

The Russian economy could pivot to become better integrated with the Chinese economy. It would be less profitable and also place Russia in a situation of dependency to China, something they would resent, but what choice do they have now? Withdraw from Ukraine and ask for forgiveness?
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 19:11 #681557
We should also treat the same way people who think a bit of genocide is OK because it's realpolitics.
Isaac April 14, 2022 at 19:11 #681558
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
The alternative is for the US not to live up to its security guarantees to Ukraine, which also risks nuclear war.


A minute ago Russia were unlikely to mount any kind of response to NATO escalation, now everyone and their dog will chuck nuclear missiles around like tennis balls if the US don't step in and stop them. Which is it?

The terms of the Bucharest Memorandum do not specify any requirement for military support in the event of an invasion. They only specify respecting territorial boundaries (which Russia has broken) and refraining from economic coercion (which the US has broken). It provides that the other signatories will provide "assistance" to Ukraine (of unspecified type) in the event that it is the subject of "aggression in which nuclear weapons are used"

So I'm in the dark as to what guarantees you might be talking about.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
how does everything said about reckless escalation not apply to Russia attacking a country that the US has openly promised to protect in coordination with Russia?


Who said it didn't?
frank April 14, 2022 at 19:58 #681567
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
To facilitate a reduction of the number of countries with nuclear weapons, the US made security promises to Ukraine in exchange for them delivering the weapons to Moscow, something Moscow agreed to.

With that in mind, how does everything said about reckless escalation not apply to Russia attacking a country that the US has openly promised to protect in coordination with Russia?


So the US and Russia haven't been fighting over Ukraine for decades.
Benkei April 14, 2022 at 19:58 #681568
Reply to Olivier5 That's insulting to Jews, native Americans, Aboriginals and a multitude of other people who were actually the target of genocide.
frank April 14, 2022 at 20:01 #681569
Quoting Olivier5
The Russian economy could pivot to become better integrated with the Chinese economy. It would be less profitable and also place Russia in a situation of dependency to China, something they would resent, but what choice do they have now? Withdraw from Ukraine and ask for forgiveness?


If Putin pulled out of Ukraine now, how long would it take to normalise relations with Europe?
frank April 14, 2022 at 20:11 #681571
Reply to Benkei And there was that time the Dutch committed genocide against the French. Terrible.
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 20:15 #681572
Quoting frank
If Putin pulled out of Ukraine now, how long would it take to normalise relations with Europe?


The time it would take to make sure it's not a ruse, I would guess. Like a few months.
ssu April 14, 2022 at 20:20 #681573
Quoting Manuel
Could you rephrase this, I'm not following.


Ok. An example

El Salvador isn't a threat itself to the US during the Cold War.

But the Sandinistas presented a threat for Reagan government because a) if other Central American countries would become communist too, the domino theory, or b) if Russia build naval bases or airbases there. Perhaps even go for the option that they tried in Cuba.

Both options a) and b) were purely hypothetical. But enough to be reasons for the US to finance it's Contra's to fight the Sandinista government. Yet in fact, after the Cold War ended Daniel Ortega came again into power and now is your typical Central American dictator and nobody cares!

Which just shows how wrong the hypothetical reasons a) and b) actually were.

Hope this clarified what I meant.
Manuel April 14, 2022 at 20:39 #681580
Reply to ssu

Thanks for the clarification. I had just woken up, so I was slower than I usually am. :sweat:

Sure, what you say here makes sense. And indeed, a and b turned out to be wrong. It's another issue, altogether more complex, if at the time (the 1980's) the people in power really believed that the Sandinistas were a threat.

It looks to me like the Domino Theory is correct in fact, hence why Vietnam was destroyed.

But I suspect that, it's not always cynicism, that is, I think people in power really do feel a threat.


Manuel April 14, 2022 at 20:39 #681581
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/14/russia-warns-of-nuclear-deployment-if-sweden-finland-join-nato

Russia warns of nuclear deployment if Sweden, Finland join NATO
SophistiCat April 14, 2022 at 20:45 #681584
Russian military are making thousands of job postings on sites like HeadHunter and Superjob: https://hh.ru/vacancies/voennosluzhaschij-po-kontraktu

This isn't a new phenomenon as such, but in the past such postings were mostly for civil specialists like bookkeeper. Now it's mostly combat specialties. And there are a lot more of them all of a sudden. Posted salaries for these essentially mercenary contracts are pretty modest even by Russia's standards, although real pay would be much higher for a combat deployment.

In one city you can even find ads for a short-term military contract in the local subway:

User image

What a contrast with this!

User image
Changeling April 14, 2022 at 21:05 #681587
Olivier5 April 14, 2022 at 21:08 #681588
Quoting Olivier5
The Moskva is the second major ship known to have suffered serious damage since the start of the war.


The Moskva has now sunk, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

RogueAI April 14, 2022 at 22:11 #681592
Quoting Olivier5
The Moskva has now sunk, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.


:lol:
Count Timothy von Icarus April 14, 2022 at 22:27 #681596
Reply to Benkei

What elements of the Hodolomor, during which the USSR killed 3-5 million Ukrainians, somehow make it not genocide?

You can't exactly call it "accidental" when you requisition all the food, including the seed for future harvests, and burn the infrastructure to boot. Or when you pass a law against collecting left over grain scraps in the fields, so that any remaining calories in the area have to rot on the ground, and further blacklist areas that show any resistance by sealing them off from any ability to trade for food.

It also looks suspicious when ethnic Russians are 10% of the population at the outset of the famine and represent a tiny number of the fatalities, while you also move to settle Russians across depopulated areas and somehow have food for them.

Furthermore, moving 500,000+ people across Asia for slave labor and not providing for shelter from the elements, resulting in high fatality rates, and doing this directly in response to fears of nationalist sentiment looks like genocide too. So does massacuring Ukrainian intellectuals and artists and destroying cultural artifacts at the same time that you forcibly starve millions, while you simultaneously move to settle the dominant ethnic group in their land, and then begin reeducation efforts to tell Ukrainians that their ethnicity never existed.

But hey, I guess if you wait 60 years for your archives to begin to open and run a totalitarian state, you can convince people of a lot of things...

That Putin also denies the Hodolomor and the genocide of Poles under Stalin (does shooting 100,000+ people based on their ethnicity count?), "mourns," the passing of the USSR, or that Russians consistently vote for Stalin in polls for the most extraordinary leader in their country's history, says plenty about why relation with Ukraine, Poland, etc. are the way they are.
Paine April 14, 2022 at 23:34 #681612
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus
Whether one describes it as a 'removal of a people' for the sake of doing that or not, the brutality accepted as necessary to achieve goals has been well established. Tough if you are one of the troublesome people.
Christoffer April 14, 2022 at 23:57 #681622
Quoting Olivier5
The Moskva has now sunk, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.


It's pretty clear how big the incompetence is in the Russian military, all the way to the top. I've positioned this right at the start of the war, Russians are just marketing and blunt large force, but no brains. It's like a brainless brute forcing itself into another nation, but they have nothing but that. Without their nukes, Russia would have been overthrown by now, there would have been little reason not to just cut off Putin and his minions. Russia's nukes are the ONLY real power they have, outside of it, there's nothing. Pretty pathetic in my opinion, all talk, and no real might. There's always been a toxic-masculinity attitude out of Russia, but this whole war put a spotlight on just how pathetic all of it really is, an entire military built upon it resulting in immature bullies conducting war crimes and big warship fleet leaders thinking they have nothing to worry about.
Wayfarer April 15, 2022 at 01:26 #681644
[quote=The Daily Mail] The pride of Russia’s fearsome Black Sea fleet was taken out yesterday in one of the most cunning operations of the war.

Ukrainian commanders destroyed the huge Moskva warship by using drones to distract its defence systems and allowing surface-skimming missiles to strike.

The 12,500-ton cruiser’s protective sensors seemingly did not see the Neptune rockets heading its way because they were tracking Turkish TB2 drones.

Providing a massive boost to morale in Kyiv, and a huge blow to Vladimir Putin’s navy, two missiles slammed into the port side of the 611ft Moskva, rocking her violently and causing a catastrophic explosion and huge fires.

As flames lit up the stormy Black Sea, the ship’s 510 crewmen frantically climbed into lifeboats and fled.
The surprise attack took place at 2am yesterday as the Moskva, Russia’s main ‘command and control’ warship, was 60 miles south of Odessa.

The ship’s captain and air defence officers were said to be tracking the decoy TB2s, unaware a pair of Ukrainian-made Neptune R360 anti-ship missiles were heading their way after being launched from an artillery battery on the coastline.

The missiles, each weighing a ton and with a range of 170 nautical miles, approached the Moskva at sea level. Travelling at such a low trajectory in rough seas meant they were difficult to track.

Last night, Western officials said Ukrainian reports of the operation were ‘credible’ and the attack demonstrated their ability to strike the Russians in areas where they assumed they were invulnerable.[/quote]

This report has not been corroborated in detail by other sources although there are many reports that the ship was struck by two missiles. True to form, Moscow denied that the ship had been attacked, saying that it sank as a result of an accident.

(Incidentally, a 12,500 ton ship is by no means ‘huge’ so I don’t know how that crept in to the description.)
FreeEmotion April 15, 2022 at 02:02 #681658
They supply anti-ship missiles and it sinks a ship. Helicopters attack across the border, but any talk of placing cruise missiles on Ukranian soil to defend Ukraine before the invasion is 'provoking Russian aggression". Sounds like a plan to me.

The defense of Ukraine is done, as far as I am concerned. If this is defending a country, then I think defense is highly overrated. More to the point, I am suggesting the Presidents have reached some sort of a deal as to how and when it will end, with a secure peace. Then I wish the United States of Europe, including Ukraine all the best!

I just realized United States of Europe spells "USE". And USA spells "USER"

FreeEmotion April 15, 2022 at 02:14 #681664
Here is a thought.

After all, no one can deny that everything that Russia has done in Ukraine, the United States did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Given such, how about having joint war crimes trials — ones in which both Russian and U.S. officials and military personnel are tried together?


https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/04/13/why-not-joint-war-crimes-trials/

It would be nice reunion for President "Russia Is Not the Enemy" Bush and President Putin.

While it is a crime to call for the assassination of the President of a certain country by its own citizens, apparently leaders of other nations are not covered my this law, but the existence of the law proves the seriousness of such statements. Not sure if it is a war crime.
FreeEmotion April 15, 2022 at 02:17 #681666
The Daily Mail:Last night, Western officials said Ukrainian reports of the operation were ‘credible’ and the attack demonstrated their ability to strike the Russians in areas where they assumed they were invulnerable.


So they wait until Ukraine is invaded, 'genocide', widespread destruction that will take years to build. It is all according to plan. They assumed they were invulnerable because NATO never supplied the 'needed' weapons. All according to some Master Plan of sorts.
Streetlight April 15, 2022 at 05:29 #681712
US: Enables and supports the genocide carried out on Yemnis by Saudi Arabia while provking war in Ukraine.

Also US: How could Russia do this???

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations accused Russia on Thursday of making the precarious food situation in Yemen and elsewhere even worse by invading Ukraine, calling it “just another grim example of the ripple effect Russia’s unprovoked, unjust, unconscionable war is having on the world’s most vulnerable.”

Linda Thomas-Greenfield told a U.N. Security Council meeting on war-torn Yemen that the World Food Program identified the Arab world’s poorest nation as one of the countries most affected by wheat price increases and lack of imports from Ukraine.


https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-yemen-52ed5d071e4022078c93a5a1975ae38d?

What a fucking joke.
Jamal April 15, 2022 at 05:29 #681713
Quoting Manuel
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/14/russia-warns-of-nuclear-deployment-if-sweden-finland-join-nato

Russia warns of nuclear deployment if Sweden, Finland join NATO


This caught my attention, because in my line of work, to deploy is the same as to launch. But of course, that's not what it means.

According to the Lithuanian defence minister, Russia already has nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. In any case, I'm not sure how seriously we should take the words of Medvedev, who is widely regarded in Russia as a posturing buffoon with no real, independent power. On the other hand, his statements maybe often reflect Kremlin thinking, in that what he says is a simplification or exaggeration of what others around him have been saying. And I guess a military buildup on the Baltic wouldn't be a surprising response to Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 05:34 #681715
Quoting Christoffer
Russians are just marketing and blunt large force, but no brains.


I agree. Even their war disinformation efforts appear amateuristic.
Benkei April 15, 2022 at 05:36 #681716
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus

Are you seriously pretending we were talking about history and not parroting Biden's idiotic qualification of the current war? Come on.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
that the US has openly promised to protect in coordination with Russia


It has made no such promise, which is why they were stringing Ukraine along for 14 years precisely to avoid having to protect them. Which is now also the problem for Ukraine pursuing neutrality. It refused neutrality as long as its neutrality isn't guaranteed by a guarantee to protect by several Western powers.

So why dangle membership if you never intended to let them join and aren't willing to protect them? Hmmm... What other motive could they have had? Wow, this is so complicated... :zip:

Reply to jamalrob

What I don't understand is why now? Why not wait until the pressure is at least a bit lower making it less provocative and less likely to lead to further escalation?
Tzeentch April 15, 2022 at 06:15 #681717
Quoting Christoffer
Yes, but Russia isn't a normal modern state...


Personally, I think Russia is pretty much a normal modern state, or at least no less abnormal than the USA. Being a regional power it of course acts differently than Belgium.

Quoting Christoffer
They already broke such laws. If a criminal is shooting at the police after the police have shouted at them to put down the weapon and apply to the set rules of society, the police have the authority to shoot down the criminal.


Yes, but that is all written down in laws that provide legitimacy in such cases.

Nowhere in international law are such things legitimized. States have the right to self-defense, but that only goes so far to legitimize the use of force, and it certainly doesn't legitimize assassinations of non-combatants.

Quoting Christoffer
And what is happening in Ukraine right now? What about how Putin and his minions spread the rhetoric that being a "Ukrainian" is "invalid". It's still up for debate if there's a genocide going on, but there's a lot constantly being uncovered.


Considering the amount of restraint Russia has shown so far (that may sound weird, but given the amount of firepower Russia possesses, they have clearIy been holding back, probably to try and save their legitimacy) and the little they stand to gain by committing atrocities, I find these claims of genocide extremely questionable.

But if the claims turn out to be true, international law has ways of bringing war criminals to justice - through tribunals, not through assassinations.

That's what the international community has decided; that in order to uphold international order as best as possible, the international community cannot advocate and use the same methods that they condemn.

Quoting Christoffer
I think that's where we differ. Many said the same about Hitler, Stalin and Mao back in the day when information were still being gathered, but I have no problem considering Putin being cut from the same cloth as other authoritarian despots


"Being cut from the same cloth", perhaps. But considering people "cut from the same cloth" is no grounds to treat people as though they have already committed the crimes. That would be arbitrary lawlessness and against any principles of modern law.
Punshhh April 15, 2022 at 06:16 #681718
Reply to Isaac You asserted that a narrative accepting of the inevitability of an iron curtain emerging from this crisis was likely to cause an escalation in the conflict. And yet failed to justify it, or give any rationale.

Looks like rationale is in short supply.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 06:21 #681719
Quoting Punshhh
You asserted that a narrative accepting of the inevitability of an iron curtain emerging from this crisis was likely to cause an escalation in the conflict.


Where?
FreeEmotion April 15, 2022 at 06:26 #681720
Reply to StreetlightX They have to be careful not to slip the surly bonds of credibility. There is a limit to credibility I think once you pass that you are in the land of the incredible.
FreeEmotion April 15, 2022 at 06:28 #681721
Quoting jamalrob
This caught my attention, because in my line of work, to deploy is the same as to launch. But of course, that's not what it means.


I read that the same, and I thought it was a good strategy, I mean did the Ukrainians not 'deploy' anti-ship weapons? These journalists are sloppy.
FreeEmotion April 15, 2022 at 06:30 #681722
Quoting Olivier5
Russians are just marketing and blunt large force, but no brains.
— Christoffer

I agree. Even their war disinformation efforts appear amateuristic.


I look forward to evaluating this when it is all over, like Afghanistan. History will be harsh, and will be written by not the victors, but by the worlds only superpower.

I like my disinformation unsophisticated, so it is easy to sort out, hence RT and Sputnik News.
Benkei April 15, 2022 at 06:42 #681724
Reply to Olivier5 That totally doesn't read like a racist trope. But I get what you're saying, in this war the preparation and execution of the Russian attack seems incompetent (from where we're standing), which makes you doubt as to the qualities of its leadership. It's that or a gross underestimation of the abilities of the Ukrainians. I can't imagine their intelligence being off though, that close to Russia with that many familial connections across borders.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 07:00 #681727
Reply to Benkei

Having trouble threading together these two narratives myself. The threat of Russia driving countries into the arms of the world's largest military alliance for protection apparently comes from the same Russia whose incompetent command, out-of-date weapons, and brainless rank-and-file are being outmatched by the world's 22ndth largest military.

And with what army are they going to invade Finland or Sweden? Are we not assured that half of them are dead or captured, their hardware destroyed and military defeat is almost an inevitability.

Maybe Finland are worried about a nuclear attack...but that would be the same nuclear attack that Putin is definitely not going to launch so we're safe to pile as much weaponry into Ukraine as we like?

It seems there's two Russias to suit two purposes. The sharp-fanged attack dog reqired as blame for NATO expansion and the toothless mutt required to support dragging out the war of resistance for another week, month, year...
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 07:03 #681728
Quoting Benkei
. I can't imagine their intelligence being off though, that close to Russia with that many familial connections across borders.


And yet their intelligence was totally off. That is indeed a mystery of sorts, when you think of it. Maybe a lack of prudence and humility. As Chirac put it in 2003 (talking to UN inspector Blix if memory serves, about US / UK intel on Sadam's alleged WMD), sometimes intelligence services intoxicate themselves, they blind themselves through a combination of ideology, wishful thinking and echo chambers.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 07:10 #681731
Quoting Isaac
It seems there's two Russias to suit two purposes. The sharp-fanged attack dog reqired as blame for NATO expansion and the toothless mutt required to support dragging out the war of resistance for another week, month, year...


Those two views easily combine into the image of a brute: strong, violent, and not too bright.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 07:18 #681736
Quoting Olivier5
Those two views easily combine into the image of a brute: strong, violent, and not too bright.


So victory against such a brute very much an unlikely prospect for Ukraine then?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 07:19 #681738
Quoting Benkei
That totally doesn't read like a racist trope.


BTW, I take exception to this. I appreciate Russian culture and folks. I've read Gogol, Dostoyevsky, Chekhov, Andreï Makine, Nabokov... Nothing in my comment pertained to a supposed Russian race or ethnicity or even to their culture. When I speak of 'the Russians' I mean their army.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 07:27 #681740
Quoting Isaac
So victory against such a brute very much an unlikely prospect for Ukraine then?


They can outsmart it though... Look at the way they sunk two mighty ships with local technology and tons of smarts.

User image
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 07:29 #681741
Quoting Olivier5
They can outsmart it though... Look at the way they sunk two if their mighty ships with local technology and tons of smarts.


So the super smart Finns and Swedes have nothing to fear and no need to run to NATO then?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 07:30 #681742
Quoting Isaac
So the super smart Finns and Swedes have nothing to fear and no need to run to NATO then?


Are you crazy, just stupid or is it blind anger? Try and think, for a change.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 07:34 #681743
Quoting Olivier5
Are you crazy?


Are you suggesting the Finns and Swedes are dumb?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 07:36 #681745
Reply to Isaac If there are Finns and Swedes who want their people bombed by Russia just because they might have a chance to prevail in the end, they are indeed as dumb as you are, not to mention criminal. But I doubt it.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 07:42 #681749
Quoting Olivier5
If there are Finns who want their people bombed by Russia just because they might have a chance to prevail in the end, they are indeed as stupid as you are. But I doubt it.


The bombing happens anyway, NATO don't do preemptive attacks on potential aggressors. They support those who are attacked. Support the smart Finns and Swedes clearly don't need against the dumb brute whose useless army is apparently half destroyed already.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 07:48 #681752
Reply to Isaac You are exactly like them in a way: blinded by hatred and fear, and thus unable to think logically. Calm down already.

No bombing has happened to the Finns quite yet. Joining NATO would protect them from this eventuality by deterring aggression -- at least that's the idea.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 07:57 #681753
Quoting Olivier5
Joining NATO would protect them from this eventuality by deterring aggression


So why didn't they join NATO before now?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 08:00 #681754
Quoting Isaac
So why didn't they join NATO before now?


I don't know. @ssu would be better placed to answer this.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 08:05 #681755
Quoting Olivier5
I don't know. ssu would be better placed to answer this.


The argument doesn't require you to know. It only requires that you accept they had a reason. Ie joining NATO is not a option with only one factor to consider.

As such (even without knowing what their reasons were) simply saying NATO acts as a deterrent is inadequate. They must act as a sufficiently necessary deterrent to outweigh the factors advising against membership.

So the question remains. Why is NATO now a sufficiently necessary deterrent, if Russia are now shown to be an easily defeated, half destroyed military force?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 08:13 #681756
Quoting Isaac
So the question remains. Why is NATO now a sufficiently necessary deterrent, if Russia are now shown to be an easily defeated, half destroyed military force?


Military strength can be rebuilt; mistakes can be learnt from.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 08:16 #681757
Quoting Olivier5
Military strength can be rebuilt; mistakes can be learnt from.


Rebuilt by the destroyed Russia we're assured will result from Putin's disastrous invasion? Mistakes learnt by the leader we're told listens to no one and is surrounded by yes men?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 08:18 #681758
Reply to Isaac Yes. The world is not static, it changes all the time. Putin can learn a lesson. It's not impossible.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 08:20 #681759
Quoting Olivier5
The wold is not static, it changes all the time.


The world was always that way. So why is it now sufficiently necessary to obtain the NATO deterrent where it wasn't before?

Quoting Olivier5
Putin can learn a lesson.


So he's not an egotist surrounded by yes men?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 08:23 #681760
Quoting Isaac
So why is it now sufficiently necessary to obtain the NATO deterrent where it wasn't before?


As I said, @ssu would be in a better position to answer this question. I would guess they are now more scared of a possible invasion than they were before the war in Ukraine.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 08:24 #681761
Quoting Olivier5
I would guess they are now more scared of a possible invasion than they were before the war in Ukraine.


[I]More[/i] scared now that Putin's army has been shown to be easily defeated and half destroyed?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 08:32 #681764
Reply to Isaac More scared now that thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been murdered by the Russians, yes. If you had a serial killer living next door, you would be scared too, irrespective of his current strength.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 08:37 #681766
Quoting Olivier5
More scared now that thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been murdered by the Russians, yes.


So no one died in Georgia? No one died in Chechnya?

Quoting Olivier5
If you had a serial killer living next door, you would be scared too, irrespective of his current strength.


I may well be. Fortunately for me (and the world in general) international diplomacy in foreign policy is rarely conducted on the basis of knee-jerk emotive response. We expect a little more cold rational consideration.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 08:41 #681767
Reply to Isaac Very few died in Georgia. Chechnya is part of Russia so it was not an armed aggression of another country.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 08:45 #681768
Quoting Olivier5
Very few died in Georgia. Chechnya is part of Russia so it was not an armed aggression of another country.


I'm not suggesting they were identical, I'm asking why the deaths are significant yet not the military capability when it comes to an assessment of risk?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 08:51 #681769
Reply to Isaac What are you trying to say, exactly?
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 08:52 #681770
Quoting Isaac
We expect a little more cold rational consideration.


What you expect is irrelevant.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 09:05 #681771
Our leaders, last week, reacted with shock and emotion to the images of hundreds of civilians massacred in Boutcha and other suburbs of Kyiv. Emmanuel Macron: "The images that have reached us from Boutcha are unbearable". Olaf Scholz: "Terrible and horrible images". Antony Blinken: "A punch in the stomach". They are absolutely right. But one has the distressing impression, listening to them, that this is the first time they have seen such images: images of civilians murdered by Russian soldiers. But we have been seeing such images for twenty-two years, precisely such images. Simply, the corpses that we were looking at with a distracted eye, all these years, were Chechen, Georgian, Syrian, Central African, Libyan corpses. It was disturbing, but not enough to question our policy of rapprochement with Vladimir Putin, our policy of constant "reset" in the face of his provocations and crimes.

-- Jonathan Littell, le Figaro, 13/04/2022
ssu April 15, 2022 at 09:52 #681776
Quoting Olivier5
As I said, ssu would be in a better position to answer this question. I would guess they are now more scared of a possible invasion than they were before the war in Ukraine.

When the Russian army is getting is ass kicked in Ukraine and has massed it's troops there, what better time to join NATO?

You know, it's quite telling that Isaac now takes up this issue about this issue when I and @Christoffer already discussed the matter a month ago and then discussed the frantic communication between Stockholm and Helsinki and the shuttle diplomacy before this. But of course, the topic is now in headline news and so now the issue comes up. Well, people can talk here about issues that have not yet come up in the media yet in this forum.

So I would refer to what I said a month ago here. It's also useful to listen to the comment of an Finnish ex-prime minister who tells our position quite well and the what is left of the idea of Finnish "neutrality". After all, Putin is both against the EU and NATO.

But I guess there's no worth to discuss it if the response is just rants and ad hominems and the only correct topic are the evils of the US.

Just how off the discussion is among some commentators here can be seen from an excellent historical commentary made by Indy Neidell and Spartacus Ohlssen:

(Starting from simple facts:)


The video series (few of them) is worth watching as it gives a good historical perspective for the events in Ukraine.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 10:00 #681777
Quoting ssu
When the Russian army is getting is ass kicked in Ukraine and has massed it's troops there, what better time to join NATO?


Yes, there's that too, I guess: an opportunity to seize now -- when the Russians cannot do much about it, busy as they are elsewhere, can't even argue credibly against Finland's need for protection, and when the Finnish people support it -- or perhaps never.
neomac April 15, 2022 at 10:09 #681779
Reply to Isaac

> My point requires only that the policies of the ruling classes cause some deaths among the working classes

I don’t think so. First of all your claim was “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another.” Second, you were neither clear about what oppression means nor how to evaluate it (here you take as a metrics “death” elsewhere you were talking about economic oppression “It is an economic fact that the working class are oppressed by the elite classes”). Third, you weren’t talking about “some” oppression but “far more consistent” oppression: so if your metrics is “death” then you have to prove that the Ukrainian ruling class’s policies cause far more deaths than the Russian soldiers as working class are causing to Ukrainian families.

[i]> I don’t see the point of your claim “defending one's nation' alone is insufficient as a moral reason” since the “insufficiency” qualification by comparison to other alleged more relevant moral reasons (e.g. fighting against the ruling class, which you admit can be unacknowledged by the oppressed) doesn’t question the fact that Ukrainians actually have an acknowledged moral reason to fight for defending their nation and therefore feel compelled to act upon it as they do. — neomac
Of course it questions that fact. If there's no moral case for defending one's nation then those merely 'defending their nation' have no moral case. It could not be more simple. [/i]

Doubt that. Let’s recapitulate your previous claims:
(1)“I’m arguing that simply 'defending one's nation' alone is insufficient as a moral reason because the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another.”
(2)“You could claim that one is morally more justified in fighting X over Y, because X is more oppressive, but that doesn’t equate to claiming that one has no moral reason to fight Y. — neomac
Yes. Which would probably be why I didn't make such a claim.”

(3) “how come that the Russian soldiers (example of working class) prefer to kill Ukrainian families (which surely include members of the Ukrainian working class) instead of killing or mass revolting against the Russian ruling class (Putin and his entourage) if they have greater interest in opposing their ruling class more than in opposing other people? — neomac
I didn't say they realised or agreed, I just said they had more in common with each other than their rulers and bosses”.

So, according to (1), Ukrainians fighting to defend their nation wouldn’t have a sufficient moral reason “because the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another”. Yet, according to (2), you didn’t claim that Ukrainians have no moral reason to fight the Russian armies to defend their nation, when saying that they have no sufficient moral reason to fight the Russian armies. So Ukrainians actually have a moral reason to fight against Russian invasion.
Now you say that Ukrainians have no moral case to keep fighting the Russian army.
So what on earth does it mean that Ukrainians have a moral reason to fight the Russian army to defend their nation, yet they have no moral case to fight the Russian army to defend their nation?! Concerning your “moral reason insufficiency”, I find it problematic wrt its prescriptive implications, especially in light of (3). To clarify this, here is a more trivial example: X is a charitable man and has a moral reason to help A, a very poor man but with no family to support (2) however his moral reason to help A is not sufficient only in the sense that there is also B who is a very poor man with family to support, so B’s case is comparatively more urgent than A’s case (1). Yet B’s case is totally unknown to X or X has reasons to believe that B is neither very poor nor with family (3). In this scenario, should X help A or not? For me it would make sense only to answer yes, but you would say no, right?
Finally, (2) looks in contradiction to other claims of yours (“fighting over a flag is always wrong”, “Fighting a war over a flag is without doubt immoral”) where fighting over a flag is no doubt always immoral: how can “fighting over a flag” be at the same time no doubt always immoral and still be a moral reason?!

[i]> OK then what is the relation between Russian and Ukrainian rich people being in a luxury yachts, while Russian and Ukrainian children starve do death in their rubbish, with the fact that Russian soldiers are exterminating Ukrainian families and children? — neomac
Nor did I restrict my analysis to Russia and Ukraine. Are you going to go around the world adding one country at a time or are you going to have an honest conversation including the fact that America and Europe are deeply involved in this conflict?[/i]

I have no idea what analysis you are talking about, I’m still waiting for one about the pertinence of your claim “I would have thought it pretty self-evident that people swanning about in luxury yachts whilst children starve to death in their rubbish was both unfair and cruel” wrt the fact that Russian soldiers are exterminating Ukrainian families and children.
The irony is that your excuse to dodge this task is that I interpret your unrestricted claims more strictly. Yet I did that precisely because they are unrestricted, not despite the fact they are unrestricted. It’s on you to analytically clarify how your unrestricted claims should be properly understood not on me to do the job for you.
Besides, I don’t see how one could possibly have an intellectually “honest conversation” in a philosophy forum without clarity and arguments. So until I see some effort in this direction from you, I can’t take your “honest conversation” proposal seriously. And apparently I’m not the only one who questioned the honesty of your approach in this debate, am I?

> What the situation is and what our choices are, are two different things.

Meaning? Spell it out more clearly and argue for it, if you can. If Zelensky’s choice (e.g. between keep fighting or surrender) should be morally/strategically assessed based on a de facto situation (Russian control over Crimea and some Donbas lands) as you claim, why shouldn’t your related choice (i.e. Ukrainian keep fighting or surrender to Russian demands) be morally/strategically assessed based on a de facto situation as you framed this war from a geopolitical point of view (i.e. “American expansionism vs Russian expansionism”)?

> Who said Zelensky was 'constrained' by the de facto circumstances?

I am, based on how you framed the negotiation best outcome, in line with Russian demands.

“1. This gives Russia no more than is de facto the case already , so it doesn't give an inch on Russian expansionism, it just admits that we've failed to contain it peacefully as we should have. Russia already run Crimea, Donbas already has independent parliaments and make independent decisions, NATO have already pretty much ruled out membership for Ukraine, as have Ukraine.”

“you just repeated Putin’s demands and related blackmails without considering Ukrainian demands at all. — neomac
I know, that's why I said them. Those are the demands on the table at the moment, so of course they're Putin's. The argument was that they don't push Russian expansionism futher. They are the de facto positions already.

> You introduced maths. Why does a multi-causal analysis entail that I should be able to carry out some mathematical calculation assigning degrees of blame? I can say party X is somewhat to blame and party Y somewhat to blame. That's multi-causal and involves no maths whatsoever.

Oh I see now how pointless your previous comment was: “You appear to be unfamiliar with multi-causal events, perhaps read up about the concept before pursuing this further”. Because the claim “party X is somewhat to blame and party Y somewhat to blame” is not a multi-causal event analysis nor necessarily requires one. Multi-causal analysis refers to the identification of a minimal set of causal factors (where the concept of “causal factor” goes beyond agency and intentionality) and each causal factor has a certain weight (statistical, i.e. depending on the stochastic correlation between causal factors and effects, or probabilistic, i.e. depending on the ratio between one factor and the total number of factors) in contributing to a certain effect. So you were loosely talking about multi-causality to refer in reality to multi-agency dynamics and related responsibility/blame attributions, as I clarified here (https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/675364 , see comment about your vase broken example).
But if you want attribute blame based on multi-agency dynamics then, saying of the West, “recklessly endangering millions of people by knowingly provoking a ruthless tyrant without any meaningful protection for those he might attack is immoral” looks preposterous as much as your example of the broken vase to explain this: the West is no real moral agent while your broken vase example is not an example of multi-agency dynamics. Besides, if you want to put “some” blame to some agent wrt others in a multi-agency dynamics, it would still be important to assess how much blame in order to allow a proportionally adequate response. For example, assessing how much Zelensky is blameful wrt Putin will morally justify a proportional support to push Zelensky to accept Russian demands or to formulate Ukrainian demands in a way that is more acceptable by the Russians. Now, if the Ukrainian patriotic resistance is morally defensible (at least as long as they are aggressed, as I argued), then the Ukrainians can not be blamed for that, nor can be Zelensky as the Ukrainian legitimate leader in times of peace and war (as I argued), while Putin & Russian soldiers bear all the blame for continuing this war.
So it’s on you to clarify why Zelensky bears some responsibility along with Putin for the fact that Russian soldiers are killing Ukrainian families, and how much Zelensky is blameful wrt to Putin for what happened.

[i]> I made my moral assessment based on a posteriori comparative evaluation concerning how much Zelensky’s choices reflect what Ukrainians actually value (defending Ukraine from Russian aggression), how much Ukrainian values are closer to Westerners wrt Russians (Ukrainains are more open to westernization), how much proportionate Russian response to the claimed threat from Ukrainians was, how much Russian aggressive expansionism is an actual existential threat to the West (given the actual Russian cyberwar against the West, the actual nuclear threat against the West, the actual Russian aggressive expansion in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa, and Putin’s actual aspirations to a new world order), and so on, and my conclusion is that I have moral reasons to side with Zelensky’s resistance against Russia. — neomac
So a list of arbitrary preferences then…

> Yes I’m claiming there are moral reasons to back a particular strategy, and the particular strategy is supporting Zelensky’s resistance against Russian aggression. Does that sound new to you after all I already, repeatedly and extensively said? — neomac

No, but you've yet to adequately support any such reasons other than state some entirely arbitrary preferences and then declare alternative 'preposterous'. If you find the views of anyone who doesn't share your entirely arbitrary preferences 'preposterous' I suggest a debate forum isn't the best place for you.
[/i]

What do you mean by “arbitrary”? I’m not judging based on my own preferences alone, nor am I judging without rationally processing a load of information which include people preferences among other things (for example, the feedback from different experts concerning the strategic stakes of this war). So my moral approach is the opposite of “arbitrary” as I understand the word “arbitrary”. Actually that’s the reason why I support this approach.
On the contrary, I find arbitrary your claim that fighting a war for one’s nation is no doubt always immoral, precisely because it doesn’t take into account what other people value, but only what you value (i.e. life) and prior to any rational processing of the situation at hand.

[i]> if you contrast a Russian puppet government wrt Zelensky’s, praise the first and blame the second — neomac
Where have I done anything of the sort? [/i]

Here: “It’s not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed. Western governments decide in what way to assist. Ukrainian children die. They didn't get a say in the matter. If you think that's moral, that's your lookout, but I don't see how. I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet”.
And now here:
“Option 1 - Long drawn out war, thousands dead, crippled by debt, economy run by the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of lobbyists benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue and yellow flag over the parliament Option 2 - Less long war, fewer dead, less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue, red and white flag over the parliament.”
This is called comparative advertising in marketing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advertising) and it explains how you strongly suggested your support for a puppet government over Zelensky’s patriotic government, without saying it.
So it is evidently plausible to say you are suggesting to replace Zelensky’s government with a puppet government, which is even more than what Putin asked in the scenario we discussed.

[i]> Option 1 - Long drawn out war, thousands dead, crippled by debt, economy run by the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of lobbyists benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue and yellow flag over the parliament.

Option 2 - Less long war, fewer dead, less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue, red and white flag over the parliament.
Option 2 has fewer dead.[/i]

First of all, I see “regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor” in both options. So since it doesn’t make any difference, what was the point of putting it? Second, what does support your claim “less crippled by debt” and “less in thrall to the IMF”? Actually there are reasons to doubt that if Ukraine loses Crimea, part of the Donbas region, and has a Russian puppet regime, it will recover more easily from its debts, since its economy will be badly crippled (due to the economic, energetic and industrial importance of those regions) and its dependency to Russia might suffer from the sanctions the West imposed on Russia as well. So their economy could go shittier than the Russian economy is right now (especially if Russia doesn’t make any reparation payment), and still under shittier Russian ruling class who cares about the Ukrainians even less they care about the Russians. They should give up on their hopes to join the West as they wanted, see their culture repressed along with persecutions of dissidents and rebels (which might be as bloody as in Bucha). They could also be involved in other Russian expansionist criminal wars as much Belarus was.
For the West the chances of another war against Russia can only grow bigger if option 2 was the case, and Russia pushed further its geopolitical agenda (so again more deaths and destruction also for the Ukrainians if the war will involve again Ukraine, this is also what buffer states are for right? ). Indeed Sweden and Finland are thinking to join NATO. So provocations are not over yet right?

> Why? People are not normally required to avoid all risk to others in order to avoid being labelled immoral?

Let me remind you of what you claimed “Zelensky bears some moral responsibility for the deaths if he chooses to continue fighting when he could have take a less harmful other option. That's just a statement about how moral responsibility works. It doesn't require me to do any maths. If you don't agree then you'd have to offer an alternative theory of moral responsibility; one in which people can make decisions without any blame accruing to them for the foreseeable outcomes.
So your point is that Zelensky’s choice is somehow immoral right?
Now compare the previous claim with this one: poor bear some moral responsibility for the deaths/misery/starvation/disease of their children if they choose to give birth to their babies when they could have taken a less harmful other option, namely not having babies.
It’s a similar line of reasoning as the previous one, right? So the choice of having children by the poor is somehow immoral right?

[i]> What are the other solutions you are talking about? — neomac
I'm not answering these stupid questions. Either have a serious conversation or don't bother replying.[/i]

Why stupid? Depending on your answer I can better assess the consistency of your reasons, precisely because I doubt they are consistent. BTW, enquiring about your reasons should not look that stupid to you if you want to be consistent with your claim: “All we can ever do on a site like this is enquire about people's reasons for holding the views they hold. The entire enterprise if pointless otherwise”.

[i]> What is the point of such claims, in particular the part I put in bold? I see none. — neomac
Seriously. You don't see the point in ascertaining who I'm talking to? What garbage.[/i]

No I don’t see the point, for precisely the reasons I explained and you didn’t address, which again doesn’t sound consistent with your claim: “All we can ever do on a site like this is enquire about people's reasons for holding the views they hold. The entire enterprise if pointless otherwise”.

[i]> I have no idea what “the outcome continued war is compared to matters.” is supposed to mean. — neomac

Option 1 - Long drawn out war, thousands dead, crippled by debt, economy run by the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of lobbyists benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue and yellow flag over the parliament.

Option 2 - Less long war, fewer dead, less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue, red and white flag over the parliament.
Option 2 has fewer dead.[/i]

That doesn’t answer what I previously asked: “for the third time, wouldn’t this line of reasoning of yours simply support whatever the status quo is (ruling class oppressing working class is a de facto situation right?), since no power (especially authoritarian) can be radically challenged without risking one’s (and often beloved ones’) material well-being and life?”
And then asked again:
“How else do you see the oppressed poor get better condition from an authoritarian ruling class without fight (history is plenty of violent revolutions and civil wars where the poor tried to fight against an authoritarian ruling class to improve their conditions), and therefore risking one’s (and often beloved ones’) material well-being and life? I’ll remind you that you keep talking about the importance of ruling class oppression which is far more consistent than the oppression between nations, so would you exclude fighting against an oppressive ruling class (like the Ukrainian peasants’ revolts against the Stalin’s forced collectivization) as morally defensible for fear of worse consequences (like the Holodomor which is worse than what Russia has done so far in this war against Ukrainians)?”
It’s important you answer those questions because you are the one who claimed “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another” and believes it’s pertinent in the debate about the war in Ukraine.

[i]> P1. If, in the Ukrainian-Russian negotiation, demands are unacceptable [p] or the assurances aren’t enough [q], then the negotiation fail [r]
P2. In the Ukrainian-Russian negotiation, negotiation demands were unacceptable [p] and assurances weren’t enough [q]
C. The negotiation fail [r] — neomac
Well then C doesn't follow because you've not demonstrated P2.[/i]

You evidently lost track of what I and you were previously talking about. On my side, the point wasn’t to provide a conclusive demonstration concerning the question of the negotiation failure due to the lack of assurance, but only its plausibility based on the available evidences: “Negotiations failed, so either the demands were unacceptable and/or the assurances weren’t enough. Since I wasn’t there at the negotiation table, I can only guess from available evidences and plausible reasons that support either cases. I already provided some for both cases. So if assurances weren’t enough at the negotiation table (which I find plausible due to evidences and reasons), then the mistrust was too much.”
Now, while this last objection of yours is related to P2 (which you claim I didn’t demonstrate), the previous one was more related to P1 (“That doesn't follow at all. Two parties could trust each other 100% and still not reach agreement on the deal because neither side thinks they have the concession they were looking for. It need have nothing to do with trust”). And in both cases you repeated the same complaint “that doesn’t follow (at all)”.
Yet my argument is logically valid (the conclusion correctly follows from the premises and I hope you know the distinction between valid and sound deductions), I didn’t ignore the case you were mentioning (100% trust but no satisfactory concessions), I provided evidences to support not the truth but the plausibility of P2 as expressly intended, so your objections either are wrong or missing the point.

> Seriously? You want me to re-post all of my comments with the names edited. Are you retarded? Can you seriously not handle the task of simply reading one for the other?

Yes seriously. There are two reasons why I ask: one, to more comfortably quote individual claims of yours (which would also reduce the risk of misunderstanding). Second, depending on the way you formulate the question, I could ask you to be more specific (indeed some of your questions were ambiguous or unclear about what they are referring to) or to argue for its implied assumptions (e.g. if I don’t see evidence to support what your questions assume to be the case).
Don’t start calling names, dude, your position is in such a bad shape already that you do not really need to worsen it.

[i]> Option 1 - Long drawn out war, thousands dead, crippled by debt, economy run by the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of lobbyists benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue and yellow flag over the parliament.

Option 2 - Less long war, fewer dead, less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue, red and white flag over the parliament.
Option 2 has fewer dead.

I'm not saying anyone has to do anything.[/i]

You are not saying it, yet you are suggesting it. If we are talking about moral, defending a line of reasoning to support a certain moral position has a prescriptive force related to what people should do e.g. supporting or not Ukrainian resistance against Russian invasion (“whether negotiations are taking place is not the question. Whether you support them is the question”). So if you say that “fighting for a flag is no doubt always immoral”, that implies that people should never fight for their nation. It doesn’t matter if you phrase it that way.

> I’m pointing out that the terms offered by Russia are in this specific case, not applying to every single case in the world (which you bizarrely assumed), are such that it's not worth thousands of lives and huge indebtedness just to avoid them.

I didn’t make any such assumption. When one argues in support of one’s claims one can rely on some more general beliefs and/or more specific beliefs. While defending your position, you too seemed to rely on some more general beliefs (“fighting for a flag is no doubt always immoral” or “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another”) and other more specific (like when you talk about “less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF”) so I addressed them differently depending on their level of generality.

> I choose the experts whose opinion align with the narratives I prefer. I have world views I find satisfying and if an expert opinion aligns with those I'll choose to believe that expert rather than one whose opinion opposes them. all this assuming the expert in question has sufficient qualification and no obvious conflict of interest.

Let me notice first this: you talk about your personal preferences (+ some comparative criteria) in trusting some experts and yet you do not take this to be arbitrary right? But when I talked about preferences (not only mine! + some comparative criteria) in my approach to moral assessments you dismissively said “a list of arbitrary preferences”. That doesn’t sound fair, does it?
Besides your additional criteria (“sufficient qualification and no obvious conflict of interest”) look neither better than mine (“double-check based on what I find logic or consistent with other sources and background knowledge”) nor incompatible with mine. They are not better than mine because even if conflict of interests and titles are certainly pertinent parameters among others when assessing experts, yet they are neither conclusive nor sufficient per se: during the covid crisis there were experts (like Luc Montagnier) with titles and no evident conflict of interests but whose reliability when talking about covid was still pretty dubious. They are not incompatible with mine because e.g. I don’t even know how you would assess “sufficient qualification and no obvious conflict of interest” without adequate background knowledge. Yet oddly you didn’t accept mine as good response to your question, God knows why.
At this point I could try to complete my previous answer as follows. First of all, my understanding of the strategic implications of the war in Ukraine results from processing information from different sources, including experts (more than I can remember) on different fields and with different views (including Mearsheimer, Kennan, Kissinger). So it’s not like I have my moral or strategic understanding of this war and then I look whoever expert is confirming it. Secondly, as far as trust is based on implicit background knowledge (which include one’s personal encyclopaedic baggage of notions and cognitive habits), it doesn’t even make much sense to ask why I trust an expert. It would make more sense if I were to compare the opinion of the expert X wrt to the opinion of the expert Y (because I can compare for example their titles or their arguments or how much they converge with the opinion of other experts, etc.), or if I were to re-assess X’s opinion in light of some putative discrediting evidences (like a conflict of interests). With political leaders things are complicated by the fact that there might be discrepancies between what they say and the reality, or what they say and what they do as we commonly and widely experience (so it’s harder to assess what is physiological and what dysfunctional or how much a leader is reliable).

> Seeing this crisis as a random outburst from an unprovoked madman who the US can stamp on with it's shiny military is useless. It achieves nothing.

It is incorrect to say that it achieves nothing if it strengthens Western consensus in support of resistance/containment against Russia. You probably mean nothing you value for the reasons we are discussing.
On my side, I never talked about “a random outburst from an unprovoked madman”. Some give credit to the idea that Putin is victim of his own delusional propaganda and his paranoiac mentality, typical of a cranky single dictator surrounded by yes-men and pressed by the events, which may have some plausibility, even if the geopolitical competition between Russia and America can definitely not be reduced to Putin’s mental state.
What I also find interesting though is that the most vocal non-Ukrainian subjects about the importance of supporting Ukrainian fight against Putin I’ve heard so far are Russian personalities (like Andrey Illarionov, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Garry Kasparov):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hl_nWwx2B7w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfYVX5ZWxBA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDmEPFO_hd0

> Seeing this crisis as an inevitable result of capitalist imperialism lend support to the fight against capitalist imperialism, which is a good thing.

That is why you want to help Russia win against American capitalist imperialism, because American capitalist imperialism is the greatest Evil. This is what I was trying to get from you when I was asking you about your preference between Russia and America, or America and Isis. As long as Russia and Isis win against American capitalist imperialism it’s a good thing, right? You see there was no need to talk about third strategies or opposing Russian expansionism, after all. You just wasted our time on your pointless and poorly argued side issue.
Anyway, since we are in a philosophy forum, here is a thought experiment for you: if it was the American army invading and bombing some country (say Mexico) the same way Russia is doing in Ukraine, with similar results of Russia in Ukraine, with similar indirect military support from Russia as Ukraine gets from the West, and with similar negotiations conditions from America as Ukraine gets from Russia, and all else equal, then would you have more likely supported those fighting a patriotic war against the American imperialistic capitalism (as well as Russian indirect military support) or would you have more likely supported surrender to the American imperialistic capitalism?

[i]> If you can suggest military and foreign policy experts or political commentators that disagree with my views or support your views, I’m open to have a look at them, of course. — neomac
I already have.[/i]

Following your link “https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/671136” I couldn’t find any reference to the fact that your option 2 is the best one as you suggest. Besides claims and advise of some of those experts you suggested do not seem to converge with your views in some relevant aspects. E.g. Kissinger advises “It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea. […]. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea ” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html). While Mearsheimer concludes that: “The result is that the United States and its allies unknowingly provoked a major crisis over Ukraine.” (https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf).”
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 10:15 #681781
Quoting ssu
But I guess there's no worth to discuss it if the response is just rants and ad hominems and the only correct topic are the evils of the US.


Such self-flagellation by affluent yet guilt-ridden westerners would be entertaining and even occasionally rightful, if it wasn't also worrying in terms of collective security. As Soljenitsyne reminded us in his 78 lecture to Harvard, courage is necessary for survival.


A decline in courage may be the most striking feature that an outside observer notices in the West today. The Western world has lost its civic courage, both as a whole and separately, in each country, in each government, in each political party, and, of course, in the United Nations. Such a decline in courage is particularly noticeable among the ruling and intellectual elites, causing an impression of a loss of courage by the entire society. [...]

Must one point out that from ancient times a decline in courage has been considered the first symptom of the end?

https://www.solzhenitsyncenter.org/a-world-split-apart
frank April 15, 2022 at 10:17 #681782
Quoting ssu
So I would refer to what I said a month ago here. It's also useful to listen to the comment of an Finnish ex-prime minister who tells our position quite well and the what is left of the idea of Finnish "neutrality". After all, Putin is both against the EU and NATO.


I remember that earlier discussion. For Finland and Sweden, the benefit of joining NATO is deterrence. So will they join now?
ssu April 15, 2022 at 10:55 #681786
Quoting Olivier5
Yes, there's that too, I guess: an opportunity to seize now -- when the Russians cannot do much about it, busy as they are elsewhere, can't even argue credibly against Finland's need for protection, and when the Finnish people support it -- or perhaps never.

Yes. Basically we have simply lied to ourselves that we can have NATO membership as an option and also have good ties to Russia. Well, Putin doesn't care about having good relations.


Quoting Olivier5
Such self-flagellation by affluent yet guilt-ridden westerners would be entertaining and even occasionally rightful, if it wasn't also worrying in terms of collective security.

Bravo. :100: :cheer:

And who believed Solzenitsyn or at least made similar conclusions?

I think that Vladimir Putin did this. If he has extrapolated from the West's past actions when he has invaded countries earliers, it's not surprising that he could have thought invading Ukraine would be a great idea.

The West isn't weak. The people simply aren't asked to be brave or anything else than to pay taxes. It's a mirage that democracies put up actually unintensionally, as public discourse in our societies can veer of to some bizarre "woke" nonimportant issues. So we can discuss the topic of gender neutral bathrooms or something. And when Noam Chomsky's of the World criticize the West's actions, the authoritarian regimes think this shows the weakness of the West. Dictators who manage what is talked about in their countries don't understand this: they assume that the public discussion is similarly lead by the rulers of Western countries. Russia's homophobia and thoughts about Western decadence show this.

For totalitarian regimes democracies look inherently weak. They aren't. But some dictators are fooled again and again by this. Self-criticism is important if it meant to improve yourself, not to despise yourself. And I think the vast majority understand the difference.

Quoting frank
I remember that earlier discussion. For Finland and Sweden, the benefit of joining NATO is deterrence. So will they join now?

Likely they will ask to join.

Likely they will be admitted and likely the countries will be in NATO in the end of this year or so.

But of course, surprising things can happen. We live in interesting times.
ssu April 15, 2022 at 11:32 #681793
This might be a likely way the attack happened against the Moskva. History books certainly will tell it later the facts. But the fact that Russian reported that all crew were evacuated obviously means that the cruiser sunk. I don't think that the Russian Navy is so incompetent, but what is fact that it can have difficulties to track multiple targets as it was an old Soviet era ship. So now the "Slava"-class cruiser joined the "Slava Ukrajini"-class of ships.

User image

Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 11:32 #681794
Quoting ssu
The West isn't weak. The people simply aren't asked to be brave or anything else than to pay taxes.


And to produce and consume material goods. It's now a fully materialist world, in which one measures quality of life only by the amount of stuff folks can accumulate. And from this POV, freedom and independence do not matter. Hence our contradictors here tend to measure the value of several options -- say resistance vs submission to military invasion -- only by the yardstick of physical comfort.
ssu April 15, 2022 at 11:34 #681795
Quoting Olivier5
It's now a fully materialist world, in which one measures quality of life only by the amount of stuff folks can accumulate.

Yet the people aren't actually as materialist as they even think they are. Put them into a tight spot and actually those old values that everybody thought nobody cared are important.
frank April 15, 2022 at 11:41 #681796
Quoting ssu
Likely they will ask to join.

Likely they will be admitted and likely the countries will be in NATO in the end of this year or so.

But of course, surprising things can happen. We live in interesting times.


And now I don't understand why Ukraine didn't join earlier.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 11:49 #681799
Reply to ssu I agree. I see modern materialism as little more than the fear of ideas, after a rather ideological XXth century, at least the first half of it. The fear of being wrong when one postulates that something else matters beyond physical comfort.

As stated by Noir Désir in Europe:

[We are] Materialist, so at least we're sure
Not to be mistaken, and dwell in the tangible until indigestion
In the rational, until we die of it



(full text: https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/493232)
Benkei April 15, 2022 at 12:28 #681805
Quoting Olivier5
BTW, I take exception to this. I appreciate Russian culture and folks. I've read Gogol, Dostoyevsky, Chekhov, Andreï Makine, Nabokov... Nothing in my comment pertained to a supposed Russian race or ethnicity or even to their culture. When I speak of 'the Russians' I mean their army.


Where in that reply did I suggest this? I was just pointing out your choice of words were poor even though I quite clearly understood your meaning.
Tzeentch April 15, 2022 at 13:37 #681820
The sinking of the Moskva could mark a serious escalation in the conflict. And I think as long as the West is content with its role as cheerleader, happy to "fight until the last Ukrainian" it will not bode well for Ukraine.
Manuel April 15, 2022 at 14:41 #681834
Reply to jamalrob

What you say is true.

And of course, this is a reaction to Russia's war. But I'm not sure it's a smart move. This war has been a really bad mistake (crime) on Putin's behalf.

Everything he wanted to avoid got magnified times twenty, so to speak.
Christoffer April 15, 2022 at 14:51 #681838
Quoting ssu
when I and Christoffer already discussed the matter a month ago and then discussed the frantic communication between Stockholm and Helsinki and the shuttle diplomacy before this.


We've discussed a lot of things that then happened. For example, war crimes occurring. Generally, the Russian apologists deny on repeat until things actually show up as facts and then move on to the next thing they can nag about until that is settled and so on and so on. Instead of doing any induction of actual facts and reports.

Many continue to position that Ukraine might be in a dire position, but so far Russia has lost so heavily that I'm not so sure they could manage a new effort. While Russia, with a cut-down economy and no technology to repair what they have, and elite troops killed off, generals killed off, Putin jailing his FSB comrades, Moskva gone, Istanbul locking entrance to the Black Sea for further Russian ships, enormous losses of soldiers, pressure about war crimes, pressure about supposed acts of genocide, convoy after convoy cut in half etc. etc. Even if they scramble together recruits without experience, it will just be new stupid and uneducated kids not knowing what they sign up for and with less experience than troops so far. All while if we join Nato, the pressure from the north will make Putin sweat even more while they default on payments and crash the economy even more.

So how on earth is the situation dire for Ukraine compared to Russia? As I've been saying a lot, Russia is all muscle, brute force and toxic masculinity with no brains, the equivalent of a group of hooligans screaming their way down the street. The only thing they have are nukes, without their nukes Russia would be gone in an instance. Maybe Anonymous could hack their launch codes and coordinates to self-deploy nukes on themselves in their silos, that would be the day. Of course, that's impossible, but I would have liked to imagine Putin's reaction if it happened.
Christoffer April 15, 2022 at 14:56 #681839
Quoting frank
And now I don't understand why Ukraine didn't join earlier.


Join Nato? Because they had too much corruption up until just recently. They kicked out the pro-Russian people and started working against state and societal corruption. Nato demands a core focus on democratic stability so they couldn't have joined earlier. And this is probably one reason why Putin acted to invade now, the timetable became shorter, if not now, then never and he would never have had any chance of reclaiming Ukraine. The problem for Putin is that he sees Western standards as weak, so I guess he thought that when the pro-Russian people were kicked out, Ukraine would have sunken into the decadence of the west and would be easy to invade, but if he actually understood history, then he would know that people fighting for freedom are the fiercest of all.
Christoffer April 15, 2022 at 15:00 #681840
Quoting Tzeentch
The sinking of the Moskva could mark a serious escalation in the conflict. And I think as long as the West is content with its role as cheerleader, happy to "fight until the last Ukrainian" it will not bode well for Ukraine.


Or it doesn't bode well for Russia. Not sure why big wins for Ukraine tend to make people say it's bad for Ukraine. The sinking of Moskva is a major blow to Russia and especially to the fighting morale that was really bad, to begin with.

Putin will most likely throw everything into Ukraine in the coming weeks, trying to get a win before May 9th. I don't think Russia can do much, they will keep losing. The only thing I'm scared of is if they use tactical nukes to level Kyiv just to show something to the Putin circle jerkers. But if that happens, Russia would be completely fucked.
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 15:27 #681847
Quoting neomac
you have to prove that the Ukrainian ruling class’s policies cause far more deaths than the Russian soldiers as working class are causing to Ukrainian families.


I have to prove nothing of the sort because I'm not the one claiming your position is preposterous. Look back at our conversation. Who made claims and who questioned them? I'm not trying to convince you of anything, I'm not so deluded as to think you actually arrive at your opinion via some rational argument. I'm critiquing your claims that the alternative positions are untenable, preposterous etc. To do that, all I need to show is that your dismissal of them lacks sufficient grounds. I don't need to prove they are more plausible, or more likely to be the case because you didn't make the original claim that you merely preferred your opinion, or found it more plausible. Your claim was that the alternative was actually 'preposterous'.

Quoting neomac
according to (2), you didn’t claim that Ukrainians have no moral reason to fight the Russian armies to defend their nation


(2) doesn't even mention 'defending one's nation'. Not to mention it's denying a claim I didn't make, not making a claim itself.

Quoting neomac
It’s on you to analytically clarify how your unrestricted claims should be properly understood not on me to do the job for you.


Again, I'm not putting claims out there for you to analyse. Why you'd think I'd want want some laymen off the internet to analyse my claims is beyond me.

Quoting neomac
I don’t see how one could possibly have an intellectually “honest conversation” in a philosophy forum without clarity and arguments. So until I see some effort in this direction from you, I can’t take your “honest conversation” proposal seriously.


This is not a mutual analysis of claims. As far as I'm concerned, claims are structured, cited and evidenced. Yours are none of these things. This is a social media site - you declare your allegiance to one of the available narratives and then defend that allegiance against the other side. I'm interested in the defences you use; you're, presumably, keen on having to provide those defences (otherwise you're in the wrong place) so it seems we have a mutually beneficial arrangement. But don't mistake me for someone presenting a case. If I present a case it will be at least in essay form and on a subject matter in which I have some expertise.

Quoting neomac
If Zelensky’s choice (e.g. between keep fighting or surrender) should be morally/strategically assessed based on a de facto situation (Russian control over Crimea and some Donbas lands) as you claim, why shouldn’t your related choice (i.e. Ukrainian keep fighting or surrender to Russian demands) be morally/strategically assessed based on a de facto situation as you framed this war from a geopolitical point of view (i.e. “American expansionism vs Russian expansionism”)?


Because they are two different de facto situations. I didn't say that Zelensky's choice should be based on the de facto situation simply because it's the de facto situation. I said it should be based on the de facto situation because he has the thousands of lives to consider in trying to make improvements to that situation.

Quoting neomac
> Who said Zelensky was 'constrained' by the de facto circumstances?

I am, based on how you framed the negotiation best outcome


None of that means Zelensky is 'constrained' by the de facto circumstances as some kind of rule 'one must always be constrained by the de facto circumstances' It just so happens that the actual de facto circumstances in this case are morally relevant because lives will be expended in trying to improve on them.

Quoting neomac
Multi-causal analysis refers to the identification of a minimal set of causal factors (where the concept of “causal factor” goes beyond agency and intentionality) and each causal factor has a certain weight (statistical, i.e. depending on the stochastic correlation between causal factors and effects, or probabilistic, i.e. depending on the ratio between one factor and the total number of factors) in contributing to a certain effect.


Here, for example is a paper on the multi-causal analysis of the conflict in Algeria from Oxford University. Either point out the maths that I've clearly missed in that paper, or take up with Oxford University, their evident lack of deference to your greater knowledge in this regard.

Quoting neomac
it’s on you to clarify why Zelensky bears some responsibility along with Putin for the fact that Russian soldiers are killing Ukrainian families, and how much Zelensky is blameful wrt to Putin for what happened.


I already have. He is partly responsible because he made a decision, knowing that would be the consequence where he could have done otherwise and the extent of his responsibility is 'some'.

Quoting neomac
What do you mean by “arbitrary”?


I mean you've not given reasons for your choice of method. You've said you take into account what others value, for example. You've not said why you do that.

Quoting neomac
Here: “It’s not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed. Western governments decide in what way to assist. Ukrainian children die. They didn't get a say in the matter. If you think that's moral, that's your lookout, but I don't see how. I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet”.
And now here:
“Option 1 - Long drawn out war, thousands dead, crippled by debt, economy run by the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of lobbyists benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue and yellow flag over the parliament Option 2 - Less long war, fewer dead, less crippled by debt, less in thrall to the IMF, regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor. Blue, red and white flag over the parliament.”
This is called comparative advertising in marketing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advertising) and it explains how you strongly suggested your support for a puppet government over Zelensky’s patriotic government, without saying it.
So it is evidently plausible to say you are suggesting to replace Zelensky’s government with a puppet government, which is even more than what Putin asked in the scenario we discussed.


Where, in that, do I "praise" a Russian puppet government?

Quoting neomac
First of all, I see “regime run by corrupt politicians in the pocket of oligarchs benefiting the corporations and immiserating the poor” in both options. So since it doesn’t make any difference, what was the point of putting it?


To point out that it's the same in both cases.

Quoting neomac
Second, what does support your claim “less crippled by debt” and “less in thrall to the IMF”?


War is costly, both in terms of weapons and reconstruction. The cost is being borne in loans from the US and IMF. These loans come along with stringent restrictions on the management of the debtor's economy.

Quoting neomac
For the West the chances of another war against Russia can only grow bigger if option 2 was the case, and Russia pushed further its geopolitical agenda (so again more deaths and destruction also for the Ukrainians if the war will involve again Ukraine, this is also what buffer states are for right? ). Indeed Sweden and Finland are thinking to join NATO. So provocations are not over yet right?


Remember, what I'm arguing against here is your claims that alternative positions are 'preposterous'. The fact that you can come up with scenarios which are plausible to support your position doesn't support that claim. You'd have to show that these scenarios were somehow the only plausible outcomes.

Quoting neomac
It’s a similar line of reasoning as the previous one, right?


'Similar' and 'the same' are similar, but not the same.

Quoting neomac
Why stupid?


Because assessing my alternatives is not necessary for a successful critique of your position. For your position to hold you'd have to support the claim that there literally are no alternatives. No solutions other than the one you prefer. That's ridiculous, hence a stupid line of argument. The point I'm making here only requires that other solutions exist and it's 'stupid' to deny that.

Quoting neomac
wouldn’t this line of reasoning of yours simply support whatever the status quo is


No, because the line of reasoning depends on the actual facts about the status quo. some status quos are worth fighting to change, other status quos are not.

Quoting neomac
It’s important you answer those questions because you are the one who claimed “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another” and believes it’s pertinent in the debate about the war in Ukraine.


Your argument relies on this not being the case, so it is incumbent on you (if you want to support your argument) to disprove it. I've not interest in supporting my case here (I don't even believe it's possible to support such a case in a few hundred words on an internet forum, and even if I did, I wouldn't make such a case as I've no expertise in the matter).

Quoting neomac
I provided evidences to support not the truth but the plausibility of P2 as expressly intended, so your objections either are wrong or missing the point.


The plausibility was never in question. The truth was.

Quoting neomac
Yes seriously.


Well no, then.

Quoting neomac
You are not saying it, yet you are suggesting it.


Yes. The point was that it's the result of the situation, not of some demand.

Quoting neomac
Let me notice first this: you talk about your personal preferences (+ some comparative criteria) in trusting some experts and yet you do not take this to be arbitrary right? But when I talked about preferences (not only mine! + some comparative criteria) in my approach to moral assessments you dismissively said “a list of arbitrary preferences”. That doesn’t sound fair, does it?


I am not claiming that your position is preposterous. You are claiming mine is. I've no need to prove that my position isn't arbitrary because I'm not claiming it to be anything other. You are claiming your position to be non-arbitrary (ie better than another in some metric) so it matters if it transpires it is founded on arbitrary assumptions.

Quoting neomac
during the covid crisis there were experts (like Luc Montagnier) with titles and no evident conflict of interests but whose reliability when talking about covid was still pretty dubious.


How so? If someone is sufficiently qualified and without any conflict of interest, you're not in a position to dismiss their conclusions as dubious simply because you don't like them or they're not what you expected. Your expectations and your preferences are not measures of what is the case.

Quoting neomac
I don’t even know how you would assess “sufficient qualification and no obvious conflict of interest” without adequate background knowledge


Really? If you were looking for a military expert you've no idea how to tell if they're qualified? Is there some compelling reason university tenure and/or doctorate-level qualification would be insufficient for you?

Quoting neomac
it’s not like I have my moral or strategic understanding of this war and then I look whoever expert is confirming it.


Yeah, right. You just conducted a completely impartial assessment of the evidence, sure.

Quoting neomac
I can compare for example ... their arguments or how much they converge with the opinion of other experts


How? If you're a non-expert, how can you meaningfully compare their arguments? And what relevance does it have how much they converge with the opinion of other experts?

Quoting neomac
That is why you want to help Russia win against American capitalist imperialism


Who said anything about helping Russia win?

Quoting neomac
since we are in a philosophy forum, here is a thought experiment for you: if it was the American army invading and bombing some country (say Mexico) the same way Russia is doing in Ukraine, with similar results of Russia in Ukraine, with similar indirect military support from Russia as Ukraine gets from the West, and with similar negotiations conditions from America as Ukraine gets from Russia, and all else equal, then would you have more likely supported those fighting a patriotic war against the American imperialistic capitalism (as well as Russian indirect military support) or would you have more likely supported surrender to the American imperialistic capitalism?


Interesting. What exactly did you expect to get from this? You fabricate a position you know full well I wouldn't admit to holding (that I support Russia) then ask a transparent 'thought experiment' the answer to which expects me to admit to the one position you already knew I wouldn't admit to. Surely you can see the flaw in that strategy?

Quoting neomac
Following your link “https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/671136” I couldn’t find any reference to the fact that your option 2 is the best one as you suggest.


So?
ssu April 15, 2022 at 16:04 #681856
Quoting frank
And now I don't understand why Ukraine didn't join earlier.

Now here is the ACTUAL mistake that NATO did.

President Kuchma declared that Ukraine was seeking NATO membership in 2002. NATO basically responded that Ukraine could be a member "in the future", but not immediately. And then US President Bush blurted that both Georgia and Ukraine could become NATO members in 2008 (not a thing the US President can actually decide).

That was enough for Putin to have the Russo-Georgian War (even if it was the time of Medvedev) and later 2014 happened.

One really has to understand the logic here: ONLY AFTER the Russo-Georgian war for example any plans to defend the Baltic States were made. Before they were considered "too aggressive" for NATO to make. In the 1990's and well into this Millennium it was talk about the new NATO, something totally different from the old Cold War relic -NATO.
Olivier5 April 15, 2022 at 16:07 #681857
Quoting Olivier5
I agree. Even their war disinformation efforts appear amateuristic.


Quoting Benkei
I was just pointing out your choice of words were poor even though I quite clearly understood your meaning.


What choice of words are you even talking about?

You guys are grasping at straws now.
ssu April 15, 2022 at 16:21 #681862
Quoting Christoffer
All while if we join Nato, the pressure from the north will make Putin sweat even more while they default on payments and crash the economy even more.

I think he (Putin) will portray this as he has been correct all along. See how treacherous Finland and Sweden have been? The West is out to get fortress Russia all along! That's the official line in Moscow. Old puny enemies are gathering up. So likely we will be portrayed as nazis too who discriminate ethnic Russians and are the worst scum on Earth. It's totally in a different reality. Of course the Western media isn't where it was in 2014, so that the good thing here.

But when he cannot do something, he cannot do it. And attacking EU member states with nukes wouldn't be a smart move. Perhaps that would be too thick even for the Chinese who have their patience with their ally.

But in reality you are starting to have serious discussions even in the media what the military options are for Russia. The the incursions to our (or your) aerospace and service-denial attacks are simply a nuisance. If they would be so awesome, why then is the net up in Ukraine?
Punshhh April 15, 2022 at 16:30 #681869
Reply to Isaac Use your researching prowess.
frank April 15, 2022 at 16:34 #681870
Reply to Christoffer Reply to ssu

Thanks for the info. I was trying to give a fair hearing to the idea that the Ukraine invasion was provoked or partially provoked by the US. The more I learn, the more absurd that seems.

Do you agree with that? Or do you still think provocation was part of the story here?
RogueAI April 15, 2022 at 17:29 #681889
Russia seems to be getting a little irritated at our arms shipments to Ukraine.

Also:
[i]Defence of Ukraine
@DefenceU

Ukraine government organization
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reminds the russian navy that the Black Sea straits are closed for entry only. The part of your fleet that remains afloat still has a way out.[/i]
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1514941186397683715
Count Timothy von Icarus April 15, 2022 at 18:06 #681898
Reply to Wayfarer

Comparably huge for the Black Sea fleet I guess. That or journalists not knowing what they are talking about most of the time. A ship with a 500 man crew sounds huge if you know massive oil tankers run with 20-30 people.

Could be the real story. Could be made up to show that the Ukrainian-made Neptune works as a way to deter future amphibious assaults. They did just get Harpoon missiles from the UK, although those are fairly antiquated, so the Neptune might be more likely.

I had seen the ship discussed by hobbiest sites before, with the main point being "it would absolutely suck to be a damage control team on a ship with that much ordinance packed in." You can do plenty of things to prevent missiles from going off in a fire, but nothing is fool proof. This seems like part of the issue. The much smaller Israeli Hanit was hit by a C-802 and sailed back to port ok. This seems like a cook off issue.

I don't know why Moscow thinks an accident sounds better. They could at least blame it on dastardly sabotage. It doesn't look good that their ships start going up in flames on their own as soon as they start using them, or that depots of crucial supplies on their side of the border "randomly" explode.

Reply to FreeEmotion

The Neptune is a Ukrainian built system. It wasn't used previously because they were being held in reserve in case of any amphibious landing attempts, likely around Odessa. Now that Ukraine has halted and reversed the Russian advance towards Odessa and is making gains in setting up the recapture of Kherson, they are more free to use the weapons. Also, British Harpoons mean they have more ordinance to use.

They were deployed in this case because a high value target stupidly sailed into the range of the system after engaging in a highly predictable patrol path for weeks, making the attack easy to plan.

Reply to Benkei

Fair enough. I thought that was in reference to the rampant denialism of Russia's various 20th century genocides of ethnic minorities. Certainly, Ukraine has plenty of reasons for historical grievances, and Putin publishing a paper on how their ethnicity doesn't exist in the run up to the war doesn't help with fears of ethnic cleansing on their side.

I agree that the mass executions of civilians, rapes, and looting reported don't seem organized, and aren't on a scale consistent with the term genocide. It's more indicative of terrible discipline, maybe ethnically motivated in the case of some units, but that's impossible to say.

We'll see what happens if Russia keeps any land with large Ukrainian populations. I personally wouldn't be shocked by mass deportations as a means to "sure up" areas of control. Rhetorically, they've drifted in that direction, with the moniker of "holhols" for Ukrainians as a mocking reference to the genocide. The term predates Stalin as a slur, and so has the added benefit of not being too on the nose about the whole "genocide thing that never really happened."

ssu April 15, 2022 at 18:25 #681907
Quoting frank
The more I learn, the more absurd that seems.

It is absurd.

Historical events don't happen for one reason, but for a multitude of reasons. Yet to argue that Putin needed to make a large scale attack on Ukraine in 2022 because of NATO enlargement when there was absolutely no probability of NATO enlargement is wrong. And simply to disregard practically everything that Putin has said prior and during the war and the fact that he annexed Crimea makes it all so obvious that to insist that this war happened only or largely because of NATO expansion is absurd. Is it one factor? Yes, but likely without NATO for Putin to conquer Ukraine would have been easy.

It is absurd, because Russia in Central Asia by diplomatic moves got the US airbases out from those countries without bullying or invasions, but has been close to the countries, had military exercises and even helped one government when it faced domestic protests.
frank April 15, 2022 at 19:24 #681943
Isaac April 15, 2022 at 21:37 #682006
Quoting frank
I was trying to give a fair hearing to the idea that the Ukraine invasion was provoked or partially provoked by the US. The more I learn, the more absurd that seems.


Quoting ssu
It is absurd.


Quoting ssu
It is absurd


Quoting ssu
Is it one factor? Yes,





Wayfarer April 15, 2022 at 23:01 #682030
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
I don't know why Moscow thinks an accident sounds better.


That they'd rather seem incompetent than vulnerable to military attack?

Quoting frank
I was trying to give a fair hearing to the idea that the Ukraine invasion was provoked...


Putin was mainly provoked by the fact that Ukraine was successfully independent.

Long interview with Zelenskyy published in the Atlantic Monthly
Mikie April 15, 2022 at 23:05 #682032
In case this hasn't been posted yet, I'll link it below, with excerpts.

Supporting Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Aspirations: As the United States and Allies reaffirmed in the June 2021 NATO Summit Communique, the United States supports Ukraine’s right to decide its own future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO. We also remain committed to assisting Ukraine with ongoing reforms.


Joint Statement on the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership

Worth remembering that Russia was indeed led to believe that NATO wouldn't advance beyond 1990 borders.

Doesn't excuse Putin's war crimes. But if we're serious, we have to look at relevant antecedents. This was from last September.





Wayfarer April 15, 2022 at 23:10 #682034
Zelensky was asked about his reflections on the Ukraine's ability to repel the invasion of Kyiv.

[quote=The Atlantic; https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/04/zelensky-kyiv-russia-war-ukrainian-survival-interview/629570/]Too many Ukrainians, Zelensky told us, died not in battle, but “in the act of torture.” Children got frostbite hiding in cellars; women were raped; elderly people died of starvation; pedestrians were shot down in the street. “How will these people be able to enjoy the victory?” he asked. “They will not be able to do to the Russian soldiers what [the Russians] did to their children or daughters … so they do not feel this victory.”[/quote]
Christoffer April 15, 2022 at 23:20 #682040
Quoting ssu
I think he (Putin) will portray this as he has been correct all along. See how treacherous Finland and Sweden have been? The West is out to get fortress Russia all along! That's the official line in Moscow. Old puny enemies are gathering up. So likely we will be portrayed as nazis too who discriminate ethnic Russians and are the worst scum on Earth.


Of course, Putin's entire way of handling any issue is to turn it into being "planned all along". Some experts are already pointing out that we are being compared to a Hitler alliance in Russian media. It's laughable really.
Christoffer April 15, 2022 at 23:56 #682051
Quoting frank
Thanks for the info. I was trying to give a fair hearing to the idea that the Ukraine invasion was provoked or partially provoked by the US. The more I learn, the more absurd that seems.

Do you agree with that? Or do you still think provocation was part of the story here?


Provocation is there, but not in any concept other than in the delusions of Putin and Russia. Nato will never attack Russia so any idea from them about acting to be secure from that risk is pure nonsense. Russia even wanted to join Nato back in the day but was rejected due to an unstable democracy and society.

I maintain that there are two parts to all of this. Finland and Sweden joining Nato are a prestige hit on Russia, losing neutral borders and key sea areas of the Baltic sea. While old soviet nations joining Nato means blocking any attempt to restore the old empire's geographical borders.

Ukraine was on the edge of joining Nato and the EU, blocking any attempt by Russia to restore a major key area of the old Russian empire. So this invasion was not any provocation other than a delusion of Ukraine already being "part of Russia". This is also the major insanity that made the Russian army fail so far. They thought Ukraine would willingly accept Russian rule, but instead, Ukraine showed that they don't want anything to do with Russia. This was "news" to the delusionals in Russia.

But to the point of US provoking, I'm interested to hear what you mean by that? Nato is still misunderstood, almost intentionally (so it's easier to be apologetic to Russia), and people don't understand article 5 or how the process of joining or how decisions are made within Nato. Some think Nato is being controlled by the US and when pointing out that it's a rule by the many, they still position that everyone is being controlled by the US anyway, which is batshit insane. Sweden and Finland joining Nato are being described as an act "controlled by the US" and I just think that idea is delusionally indoctrinated bullshit by people unable to hold more thoughts than their own ideological skewed ideas in mind. We want it because we have fucking lunatics in Russia sitting on military might that we need to be able to shoot down if needed.

There's no provocation that is reasonable as a reason for Russia's acts either in Ukraine or elsewhere. Russia is pretty much proven to be a war criminal at this point, on the brink of genocidal acts. Anyone defending these acts should take a long hard look in the mirror and either reject it or accept being part of it by defending it. It was a long time since we had this clear cut good and bad dichotomy in a war conflict and I, as mentioned earlier, position that we've had too many years of grey moral acts on the world stage where proxy wars and corporate neoliberal immoral acts made people confused as to how to act in this modern world, that we forgot that we can actually have a time where we have a delusional dictator murdering people and invading major nations.

I think that people who are questioning the moral high ground that the world exists upon against Russia forget that the peacetime after world war II is unique in historical measurements and that we take for granted how our modern world won't see a maniac leader like Putin cut from the same cloth as figures like Hitler, rise to power.

We think that world war II is in the past, that people are smarter and won't accept that kind of bullshit anymore. But that kind of comfort is extremely dangerous and I think this war is an example of that apathy. We either condemn the acts, stand up against such crimes, or let our apathy fuck everything up again to let our children condemn our actions and behaviors.

I will not be part of future analyses of stupid human behavior, I will be part of the ones who stood against such bullshit. History will show who's stupid and gullible.
frank April 16, 2022 at 00:04 #682055
Quoting Wayfarer


Putin was mainly provoked by the fact that Ukraine was successfully independent.

Long interview with Zelenskyy published in the Atlantic Monthly


:up:
FreeEmotion April 16, 2022 at 03:21 #682107
Reply to Xtrix Yes, I posted this earlier, however it looks like people don't read all the posts and maybe that is a good thing.

The Agreement refuses to recognize Crimea as Russian territory, and promises to Ukraine to put extreme pressure on Russia until they get it back. Read the agreement.

Putin was worried, and said so in an interview, that if Ukraine joined NATO, then, under the cover of protection, launched an operation to re-take Crimea, he would not be able to do anything. So, the story goes, he had to act now.

Also, he knows as, if I know it, that Ukraine, that passed laws limiting the number of Russian books to be brought into Ukraine, and other anti - Russian policies and epithets, he was sending troops into a nation of Russian haters, and would not be welcome.

Many of the statements here are 'unsupported assumptions'. I have underlined mine.
FreeEmotion April 16, 2022 at 03:28 #682108
Quoting Isaac
Having trouble threading together these two narratives myself. The threat of Russia driving countries into the arms of the world's largest military alliance for protection apparently comes from the same Russia whose incompetent command, out-of-date weapons, and brainless rank-and-file are being outmatched by the world's 22ndth largest military.


There are, it seems, different ways of argumentation, which we should be aware, those supported by facts, those by emotion (images) and by ideology. There is no point trying to convince, but meet the argument best we can.

2. Types of Arguments
Arguments come in many kinds. In some of them, the truth of the premises is supposed to guarantee the truth of the conclusion, and these are known as deductive arguments. In others, the truth of the premises should make the truth of the conclusion more likely while not ensuring complete certainty; two well-known classes of such arguments are inductive and abductive arguments (a distinction introduced by Peirce, see entry on C.S. Peirce). Unlike deduction, induction and abduction are thought to be ampliative:the conclusion goes beyond what is (logically) contained in the premises. Moreover, a type of argument that features prominently across different philosophical traditions, and yet does not fit neatly into any of the categories so far discussed, are analogical arguments. In this section, these four kinds of arguments are presented. The section closes with a discussion of fallacious arguments, that is, arguments that seem legitimate and “good”, but in fact are not.[2]

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/argument/
Benkei April 16, 2022 at 05:44 #682122
Quoting Christoffer
Join Nato? Because they had too much corruption up until just recently. They kicked out the pro-Russian people and started working against state and societal corruption. Nato demands a core focus on democratic stability so they couldn't have joined earlier. And this is probably one reason why Putin acted to invade now, the timetable became shorter, if not now, then never and he would never have had any chance of reclaiming Ukraine. The problem for Putin is that he sees Western standards as weak, so I guess he thought that when the pro-Russian people were kicked out, Ukraine would have sunken into the decadence of the west and would be easy to invade, but if he actually understood history, then he would know that people fighting for freedom are the fiercest of all.


Where's the story that Ukraine was making headway with it's anti-corruption drive?

Quoting Olivier5
You guys are grasping at straws now.


1. There's no "you guys", that's just your association;
2. That whole exchange with Christoffer was cringeworthy;
3. I understood what you were saying and gave you the charitable interpretation so there was no "grasping at straws", where I even agreed with you;
4. Maybe stop being belligerent just because I mostly disagree with you and keep thinking and reading properly.

Reply to Xtrix This has been pointed out several times. Also, Sweden and Finland stayed neutral for decades precisely because they didn't want to provoke Russia but now we have Swedes and Fins arguing on this board that such a statement didn't provoke Russia, that NATO expansion isn't a strategic threat because everything Western is totally benign and we're free to choose because "sovereignty". :chin:

So, don't bother.
Punshhh April 16, 2022 at 05:53 #682124
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus There are already reports of Russian troops digging up recently buried Ukrainians and incinerating them with mobile incinerators in Mariupol. If they take Mariupol there will be 100,000 civilians to account for. Many are likely already starving to death.
Olivier5 April 16, 2022 at 05:59 #682126
Quoting Benkei
Maybe stop being belligerent just because I mostly disagree with you and keep thinking and reading properly.


Ditto. Also, it's a good idea to answer questions.
Benkei April 16, 2022 at 06:12 #682130
Reply to Punshhh wtf? What's that about? Why? Got a link too?
Olivier5 April 16, 2022 at 06:12 #682131
Quoting Punshhh
There are already reports of Russian troops digging up recently buried Ukrainians and incinerating them with mobile incinerators in Mariupol. If they take Mariupol there will be 100,000 civilians to account for. Many are likely already starving to death.


Don't say the word 'genocide' though, or the Jews are going to feel insulted, as per @Benkei. It's "only" a very very large mass murder.
Punshhh April 16, 2022 at 06:26 #682140
Reply to Benkei
I was already writing this before I saw your last post, I will include a link at the bottom. I’m not saying this is actually happening. But there are numerous reports in the media.


I’ve already said this, but I think it is worth highlighting as in my eyes it may be a route into an understanding of why there is confusion, and opposing arguments around the causes, motivations and drivers which brought Europe (Russia included) to this crisis.

The ideology that Western freedoms are good, inviolable, liberating, right. Is taken as gospel by many in the West. This includes the notion that welcoming Eastern European countries into European institutions is an act of benevolence and kindness. That it is so good and progressive, that it could not be seen, or conceived of as being anything else.

That we are helping them, rather than expanding our empire. Blind to the fact that others might see it from the position of an expansion of empire and influence.

https://inews.co.uk/news/russian-troops-digging-up-bodies-ukrainian-civilians-preventing-burials-mariupol-officials-1578550
Isaac April 16, 2022 at 06:47 #682152
Quoting Christoffer
Nato will never attack Russia so any idea from them about acting to be secure from that risk is pure nonsense.


Fortunate then that no one has made any such claim. Again - will anyone invade America? No. Does America have security concerns? Yes. So in what world does 'Security Concerns'='Risk of being invaded'?

Quoting Christoffer
I'm interested to hear what you mean by that? Nato is still misunderstood, almost intentionally (so it's easier to be apologetic to Russia), and people don't understand article 5 or how the process of joining or how decisions are made within Nato. Some think Nato is being controlled by the US and when pointing out that it's a rule by the many, they still position that everyone is being controlled by the US anyway, which is batshit insane. Sweden and Finland joining Nato are being described as an act "controlled by the US" and I just think that idea is delusionally indoctrinated bullshit by people unable to hold more thoughts than their own ideological skewed ideas in mind. We want it because we have fucking lunatics in Russia sitting on military might that we need to be able to shoot down if needed.


This is lovely. The way you use 'understand' in place of 'agree' - as if the matter were settled already and those with a different perspective merely hadn't given it enough thought. and the genuine incredulity in "...when pointing out that it's a rule by the many, they still position that...", like "Even after I told them, they still continued to think something other than I think!". What model do you have of disagreement? Does the concept even have a place in your world view or is everything simply the way it seems to you to be and everyone else just too stubborn to see it?

Quoting Christoffer
There's no provocation that is reasonable as a reason for Russia's acts either in Ukraine or elsewhere. Russia is pretty much proven to be a war criminal at this point, on the brink of genocidal acts.


Yes, let's not worry about trivialities like the rule of law and fair trials, they're for those who are ideologically committed to an understanding they might be wrong. Better to just have a quick look on social media, see who's guilty and then put a hole in their head.

Quoting Christoffer
Anyone defending these acts should take a long hard look in the mirror and either reject it or accept being part of it by defending it.


I agree. Anyone defending these acts is clearly monstrous...Oh, sorry I see now you mean anyone you think are defending these acts ...

Quoting Christoffer
It was a long time since we had this clear cut good and bad dichotomy


Explain the 'good'. The 'bad' I get - unjustified invasion, killing civilians, denying easy humanitarian corridors... The 'bad' is super easy to see. But the 'good'? Who's 'good' here and what have they done to deserve the epithet?

Quoting Christoffer
I will not be part of future analyses of stupid human behavior, I will be part of the ones who stood against such bullshit. History will show who's stupid and gullible.


Yes, they'll probably erect a statue of you.
Olivier5 April 16, 2022 at 06:59 #682155
AFP: Thousands of faithful attended the “Way of the Cross” prayer service, presided over by Pope Francis at Rome’s Colosseum on Friday, a ceremony overtaken by the war in Ukraine.

It was the first time the traditional event on Good Friday, which marks the day Jesus Christ died on the cross in the Christian calendar, was held at the Roman monument since 2019, due to the Covid pandemic.

The pope, who has repeatedly condemned the conflict in Ukraine, and has called for an Easter ceasefire, prayed that the “adversaries shake hands” and “taste mutual forgiveness”.

“Disarm the raised hand of brother against brother,” he said.

Among the families who were entrusted with carrying the crucifix at each of the 14 stations of the cross were two women, one Russian and one Ukrainian, who are life-long friends.

The women carried the cross during one portion of the Way of the Cross, the traditional procession that commemorates the 14 stations of Jesus’ suffering and death, from his condemnation to his burial.

But the Vatican’s initiative, intended as a gesture of reconciliation in the face of the war that began February 24, was not well received by Ukrainian officials.

On Tuesday, the head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Bishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk, denounced an “inappropriate, premature and ambiguous idea, which does not take into account the context of Russia’s military aggression”.

For his part, the Ukrainian ambassador to the Holy See said he “shared the general concern”.

In a sign of the sensitivity of the issue, the Ukrainian media boycotted the broadcast of the ceremony, while the Vatican had added commentary in Ukrainian and Russian for the broadcast.

In the crowd at the event, Anastasia Goncharova, an 18-year-old tourist from Kyiv, said “I don’t think it’s a really good idea because we are no longer brother nations. They are killing our children, they are raping our children, stealing our house. It’s disgusting." [...]
SophistiCat April 16, 2022 at 07:13 #682157
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Could be the real story. Could be made up to show that the Ukrainian made Neptune works deter future amphibious assaults. They did just get Harpoon missiles from the UK, although those are fairly antiquated, so the Neptune might be more likely.


There is a sort of indirect acknowledgement of the missile attack version from Russia in the fact that they struck a factory near Kiev that produced Neptune missiles the following night.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
I agree that the mass executions of civilians, rapes, and looting reported don't seem organized. It's more indicative of terrible discipline, maybe ethnically motivated in the case of some units, but that's impossible to say.


We don't have much to go on at this point, but there are consistent patterns emerging from witness testimonies. One common theme in many stories of those who lived under Russian occupation, passed through Russian checkpoints, or were deported into Russia is the search for "Nazis" and "nationalists." Soldiers or security officers are searching documents and phones for anything they might deem incriminating. They are also looking for nationalist or patriotic tattoos. Those who arouse their suspicions are often the ones who are imprisoned, tortured or killed.

One woman, who spent a few weeks in an occupied village with her family, told about their occasional conversations with the Russian soldiers who lodged in their house (while forcing the family with two small children to stay in a cramped cellar). They said, apparently in reference to the locals, that they had orders to shoot to kill. They also said that they would shoot at any moving car after one warning shot, and there was plenty of evidence that they did just that.
SophistiCat April 16, 2022 at 07:16 #682158
Quoting Xtrix
Worth remembering that Russia was indeed led to believe that NATO wouldn't advance beyond 1990 borders.


You aren't bringing up anything new. The NATO thing has been done to death...
Streetlight April 16, 2022 at 08:50 #682168
Yes it's very passe and not so a la mode, just a bit out of fashion, to recognize that NATO has blood on their hands. All the cool kids are over it.
Olivier5 April 16, 2022 at 09:22 #682173
Reply to StreetlightX On the contrary, it's the latest craze in Moscow and beyond to remind us all constantly that NATO is evil. It's far more than just a fashion: almost a mandatory opinion, hammered hour after hour, day after day, week after week.
FreeEmotion April 16, 2022 at 10:56 #682187
Quoting Punshhh
I was already writing this before I saw your last post, I will include a link at the bottom. I’m not saying this is actually happening. But there are numerous reports in the media.


What's your advice on handling 'various reports in the media?' Ignore them or filter the ones beneficial to your cause?
Punshhh April 16, 2022 at 11:26 #682196
I’m not receiving any which are not beneficial to my cause, on this issue. Although, I am largely causeless, ambivalent, in relation to the Ukraine crisis.

It is more of an issue in regard of internal British politics. But that’s not what we’re talking about here.Reply to FreeEmotion
ssu April 16, 2022 at 11:27 #682197
Quoting Christoffer
Some experts are already pointing out that we are being compared to a Hitler alliance in Russian media. It's laughable really.

The propaganda push will basically be naturally to the Russians themselves. But yes, there's also a crowd in the West that is willing to such lies as truth.

I think Russians hope that it will be somebody like Marine Le Pen that will put the brakes on ...if she wins. Yet the Trump/Putin World that Le Pen has enthusiastically supported doesn't look so cool now.

First and foremost, information warfare both in Sweden or Finland won't work. In 2014 Russia could get it's stooges to appear here in the TV to make ludicrous statements that confused a lot of people. People were then confused and startled when popular discussion forums about childcare was suddenly full of how evil the Ukrainian nazis are who overthrew an elected leader of Ukraine. Now people know what that is. And now no media is going to invite a Russian troll to discuss the war in Ukraine as to give "both sides and fair chance". Besides, the most active Finnish trolls of Putin were exposed ended up in an spectacular way in the Donbas puppet states and actually got work there.
ssu April 16, 2022 at 11:44 #682201
Quoting Xtrix
Worth remembering that Russia was indeed led to believe that NATO wouldn't advance beyond 1990 borders.

Doesn't excuse Putin's war crimes. But if we're serious, we have to look at relevant antecedents.

Worth remembering that Ukraine was indeed led to believe that Russia would respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders it had.

Worth remembering that Ukraine isn't the only country that Russia has annexed territories or has intervened military in and created puppet states and frozen conflicts. And one of these countries, Moldova, has never applied to NATO, has had no intention join, but still has a "puppet state" and Russian "peacekeepers" on it's territory.

Doesn't excuse the fact that NATO has enlarged and that promises were given ...to the Soviet Union. But if we're serious, we have to look at the reasons just why countries want to join NATO.
Isaac April 16, 2022 at 12:09 #682204
Quoting ssu
Worth remembering that Ukraine was indeed led to believe that Russia would respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders it had.

Worth remembering that Ukraine isn't the only country that Russia has annexed territories or has intervened military in and created puppet states and frozen conflicts. And one of these countries, Moldova, has never applied to NATO, has had no intention join, but still has a "puppet state" and Russian "peacekeepers" on it's territory.


Why? Give me an example of the use 'remembering' these facts can be put to.
Count Timothy von Icarus April 16, 2022 at 12:26 #682207
Reply to Xtrix

NATO stepping up rhetoric vis-á-vis Ukraine's desire to join it was a predictable outcome of the Russian decision to invade Ukraine in 2014. "NATO will threaten to admit Ukraine, but then not actually do anything about it because they are decadent and weak," was the official Russian line then, and in the 8 years since. And indeed, NATO didn't allow Ukraine to join after the invasion, or at any point during 8 years of conflict. Point being, nothing you're quoting is remotely new, and so it isn't a very good explanation for the decision to invade.

In terms of more relevant events, I would look at Belarus and the Central Asian states. Belarus recently had massive protests to oust Lukashanko that required serious repression to beat back. As the world focused on the invasion of Ukraine, Belarus's ruling party rammed through a host of constitutional changes. These were based on changes Putin made to Russia's constitution, and include provisions such as acknowledging a special relationship with Russia in the constitution, and allowing Lukashanko to stay in power essentially for life.

The other major change was to allow a garrison of Russian soldiers to stay permanently in Belarus. This is widely seen as a way for Lukashanko to get around the unreliability of his own armed forces and for Putin to ensure an ally can't be removed.

Meanwhile, virtually every one of the former Soviet Central Asian states has had an uncharacteristically large protest movement/unrest since 2019. Aside from unrest targeting the Russian aligned elite, and the younger generation's increasing frustration with a Russia-alligned economic model that has failed to deliver growth, there is a pivot to China by these states, which represents a growing market for exports, a growing source of investment (e.g., Belt and Road), and a much stronger model of growth.

What changed recently wasn't NATO posture towards Ukraine, but circumstances in all of Russia's satalites. The ones in Europe look to the EU as a more prosperous system. The ones in Asia look to China. This seems more like a poorly thought out plan to reestablish Russian dominance in these satalites, not to deal with NATO. This was supposed to be a rapid drive into Kyiv demonstrating Russia's revived status as a major conventional power.

It is clear from the actions of the Russian military that the leadership did not actually consider that NATO aid to Ukraine would result in any significant resistance. Russia's own invasion plan and lack of any plans for dealing with strong resistance belies the idea that they thought Ukraine was actually becoming some sort of spearhead/garrison state. They very clearly thought it could be routed in 72 hours.

So, they were baited into an invasion by the growing threat of a country they thought they could easily route with almost no losses?

Politics in Russian satalites and domestic Russian politics appear to have driven the decision, not static NATO posturing.

Of course Russian messaging now focuses on NATO. How else can they explain the Russian military's loss around Kyiv and their inability to seize Mariupol, right across the border? The claim that they are somehow fighting all of NATO, who also must have started the war, is about saving face over their terrible performance. Had the war gone as planned, the messaging would be all about NATO's irrelevance and decadence, similar to 2014.

But now that Russian modernization efforts have proven to be a failure, NATO giving Ukraine 0.032% of its annual defense budget, while still withholding most high end equipment, actually means Russia is fighting a war with NATO right now. It has to mean that, else how can they explain how their brilliant leader managed such a collosal disaster?
ssu April 16, 2022 at 12:44 #682215
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
This seems more like a poorly thought out plan to reestablish Russian dominance in these satalites, not to deal with NATO.

That Russia has these imperial aspirations to dominate other former Soviet states is obvious. NATO has nothing to do with it.

First a Russian minority declares independence and if the countries military tries to intervene and it doesn't look good for the Russian proxies, suddenly Russia launches "a peacekeeping mission" and assists the proxies and you have in the end a frozen conflict. Because that's how to keep the tabs with the country. This has happened in Georgia, Moldova and in the last version in Ukraine. Although the Russian forces operating in the Donbas weren't called peacekeepers. Their existence was simply denied.
Isaac April 16, 2022 at 12:45 #682216
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus

Yesterday the wheel came off my wheelbarrow. The bolt holding it on was rusted almost through, but it had been that way for months and yet the wheel remained on, so that can't possibly have been the cause. I guess it will have to remain a mystery.
ssu April 16, 2022 at 12:53 #682217
Quoting Isaac
Why? Give me an example of the use 'remembering' these facts can be put to.

Because it really questions this delusional idea that war could have been avoided ...if only NATO wouldn't have enlarged itself.

If the Baltic states wouldn't be in NATO, then Putin would have now Russian bases in them. The example of Moldova, a country that has neutrality enshrined in it's constitution, simply shows the nature of Russian policy. Hence there are reasons for countries to want to join NATO. It should be obvious.

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Isaac April 16, 2022 at 12:55 #682218
Quoting ssu
Because it really questions this delusional idea that war could have been avoided ...if only NATO wouldn't have enlarged itself.


And what do you see as the benefit of questioning that 'delusion'?
ssu April 16, 2022 at 13:00 #682219
Quoting Isaac
And what do you see as the benefit of questioning that 'delusion'?


One shouldn't have delusions.
Isaac April 16, 2022 at 13:04 #682220
Quoting ssu
One shouldn't have delusions.


Yes, but you don't. I'm asking you why you think it so important that others don't also. What harms do you see their 'delusions' causing, such that they need so urgently to be expunged?
SophistiCat April 16, 2022 at 13:12 #682224
[tweet]https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1514966084167819270[/tweet]

This was supposedly filmed in Tumen (Siberia). Ancient Grads on ZIL-131 gasoline truck bed (1964 vintage), en route to Donbass.
frank April 16, 2022 at 13:49 #682237
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus
What do you think the US will do if Putin uses nukes?
Mikie April 16, 2022 at 14:49 #682254
Quoting Benkei
that NATO expansion isn't a strategic threat because everything Western is totally benign


Yes— American exceptionalism. Everything we do is for democracy and freedom. All military action is defensive (department of defense).

There’s little point in arguing with someone who’s already taken that view, I suppose. But it was worth pointing out anyway in the off chance it wasn’t mentioned. I haven’t followed every post on this thread.





ssu April 16, 2022 at 15:01 #682259
Reply to SophistiCat Ummm... the BM-21 Grad is quite functional and useful. Nothing wrong with it, does it's job.

I think the most popular multiple rocket system ever. An AK-47 of in the family of MLRS.

Quoting frank
What do you think the US will do if Putin uses nukes?

More interesting question is what the Ukrainians will do.




Mikie April 16, 2022 at 15:17 #682272
Quoting SophistiCat
The NATO thing has been done to death...


Rightfully so. I’m very glad to hear it. I don’t think it can be done to death, though.

Quoting Olivier5
It's far more than just a fashion: almost a mandatory opinion, hammered hour after hour, day after day, week after week.


Not that NATO is “evil,” but that agreements were made (alas, informal - not that that matters much either way) and quickly broken. Of course Russian propaganda will embellish the point for their own purposes. Doesn’t make it any less relevant.

Quoting ssu
Worth remembering that Ukraine was indeed led to believe that Russia would respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders it had.


Was this before or after NATO expanded to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia (both bordering Russia), etc.?

As I said before— I’m not excusing Putin’s crimes. But to analyze this situation by speculations about his psyche is useless. Whoever is in charge, Russia has good reason to be weary of NATO expansion, and has warned against it for years. It’s only a matter of time before someone does something stupid, given the context.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Point being, nothing you're quoting is remotely new, and so it isn't a very good explanation for the decision to invade.


It wasn’t an explanation of the decision to invade. But it’s one very important factor. You cannot understand this event without this historical context. The statement last September is a crucial piece.







Count Timothy von Icarus April 16, 2022 at 15:33 #682278
Reply to ssu
Right. Russian troops didn't just go to Ukraine in 2022. They went into Kazakhstan for "peace keeping" after nationwide riots against the Ex-Soviet Boomer leadership led to at least 250 dead, including many members of the security forces. Obviously this deployment wasn't planned though.

The deployment to Belarus, which seems indefinite, was planned ahead of time. The invasion of Ukraine was timed to coincide with sweeping changes to Belarus's laws, eroding what little token rule of law existed. In this sense, the operation was also about securing Belarus long term.

Reply to Isaac

Terrible analogy because, as I've pointed out, even if NATO's actions were one of the more relevant factors in the decision to invade, there are obviously multiple other major factors.

Calculations about NATO may have shifted when Trump lost and was replaced by a less NATO-skeptical US leader, but plenty of other nations still opposed giving membership to Ukraine, so it hardly seemed membership was immanent.

But the big argument against NATO actions being the deciding factor, aside from the fact that Ukrainian membership did not seem likely, is the fact that Russia clearly did not take Western aid to Ukraine to date to be a serious threat. They clearly thought all that aid amounted to a small speed bump on their path to a three day route and conquest of Ukraine.

So, you have a military command who clearly doesn't take aid to Ukraine seriously, but then Russia felt it had to invade because Ukrainian's military, the same one expected to fold almost instantly under Russian attack, had become too powerful?

Let's zoom out here. Why did Russia invade Ukraine in 2014? The main issue was Ukrainian ties to the EU. NATO wasn't signaling it was going to bring Ukraine in any time soon then. The EU, however, was looking more likely to include Ukraine, and offering a route in that direction. This threat to Russia seems way more relevant. EU membership was always more likely than NATO membership, and was gaining steam.

EU membership is probably more of an existential threat for Russia long term. It will mean a huge stream of aid and technical assistance for Ukraine. It will also mean more trade with the West.

Eastern European countries that have entered the EU have seen far better growth than ones that have stayed more aligned with Russia. If Ukraine followed a similar trajectory, it would begin to experience a large uptick in growth and standards of living. Millions of Russians have family in Ukraine. Such a shift would be a powerful reminder of how poorly the Russian system is performing in terms of offering economic opportunity and mobility.

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It'd be a more salient headline for the public than some of the others likely to come, such as Kazakhstan surpassing Russia in per capita GDP (China has already done so), or the former Warsaw Pact countries sans Germany surpassing its economy.
Benkei April 16, 2022 at 15:37 #682281
Reply to Punshhh Thanks. Not very clear yet what is going on but I wouldn't be surprised if war crimes are committed. We haven't seen a war yet that doesn't have them.
frank April 16, 2022 at 15:40 #682283
Quoting ssu
More interesting question is what the Ukrainians will do.


What are their alternatives?
Count Timothy von Icarus April 16, 2022 at 15:54 #682290
Reply to frank
It would be a total cluster fuck. China has also made nuclear security assurances to Ukraine. China, the EU, the US, India, etc. all have a very large interest in not allowing the use of tactical nuclear weapons to be normalized. It would radically destabilize the situation in Korea and Pakistan/India.

Russia would likely go under a full embargo globally and I doubt Putin would long survive. Obviously if they gear up for a full exchange with Western Europe they are going to get hit with nuclear strategic bombers and nuclear missiles across all their launch and strategic command and control sites, and the two hunters assigned to each nuclear capable Russian submarine would fire on them.

It's sort of unthinkable. At best, Russia would end up at least temporarily like North Korea. At worst it would face nuclear attacks on its arsenal and partition.

Do I think the US would immediately respond with a full nuclear response? Not if Russia's assets weren't mobilizing for an attack on Europe and the US. Nor do I think China would follow through with its assurances, but Russia would be totally cut off from the world economy and it's hard to see the current clique maintaining power.
FreeEmotion April 16, 2022 at 15:57 #682291
The suggestion of using nuclear weapons is useful as a propaganda tool, but not much else. If nuclear weapons are used, no amount of pre-deployemt discussion is going to help anyone, maybe some contingency plans and shelters might.

It is precisely the talk of Russia using nuclear weapons ( no-on else will, right) that is vitally useful to Zelenskyy and his allies for several reasons: to demonize Russia, to take all sorts of extreme measures such as expanding NATO to include Mars colonies, to increase defense spending, to increase economic measures and to justify any economic hardship (he said he would use nukes so what are high gas prices) and all sorts of things, in other words to justify the war effort. It will justify the all other measures and the supply of all other weapons. Good cover story.

That is how I see it, anyway. I simply assume President Putin will not use nuclear weapons, and it won't matter if I am wrong will it? It does clear the mind assume the situation will end more conventionally.

I summarily dismiss any stories not confirmed by both sides, for example, if a both sides say a ship sank, then I accept that it sank.
frank April 16, 2022 at 16:12 #682296
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus
So why does the head of the CIA publicly float the idea that Putin might use tactical nukes? Is he just spouting off? Or is he trying to accomplish something with that statement?

Thanks for the info.
Count Timothy von Icarus April 16, 2022 at 16:27 #682302
Reply to frank
Just a guess, but I think the target audience might be members of Congress who are calling for high end aid to go to Ukraine. The CIA doesn't want the war to escalate. The best outcome in terms of US security is for Russia's army to continue to be worn down and embarrassed, but for Russia to still be able to declare victory in securing Donetsk or something, and a cease fire going into place.

Too much aid to Ukraine runs the risk of them pushing back into Donetsk and Crimea, which could make Putin double down on the war due to the risk to his public image and popularity. Initial Ukrainian victories with better arms could then result in the mobilization of a war economy in Russia, increased conscription, etc. This has the negative effect of prolonging the war and destabilizing Russia.

As much as I'm sure the CIA would love to see Putin go, they'd rather have him around than some sort of chaos in Russia in the form of mutinies, etc.

You have people calling for the US to donate M1s, F-15s, etc. What you don't want for escalation is Ukraine able to carry out air strikes in Russia and shoot down their planes across the border, or tank columns punching holes across the Russian border. Not to mention training time and logistics is infeasible without even more US involvement. At the end of the day, the aid so far is a tiny amount of the NATO budget and not particularly high end hardware. There is an effort not to escalate.
Isaac April 16, 2022 at 16:34 #682304
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
even if NATO's actions were one of the more relevant factors in the decision to invade, there are obviously multiple other major factors.


Something which no one's denying. You said...

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
nothing you're quoting is remotely new, and so it isn't a very good explanation for the decision to invade.


...which I took issue with. The length of time some factor has been around for has no bearing at all on how important a factor it is, the 'final straw' might have been something trivial.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
plenty of other nations still opposed giving membership to Ukraine, so it hardly seemed membership was immanent.


Did Putin share your assessment?

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Russia clearly did not take Western aid to Ukraine to date to be a serious threat. They clearly thought all that aid amounted to a small speed bump on their path to a three day route and conquest of Ukraine.


You mean the (at most) six week old analysis from leaked intelligence reports and hastily put together military analysis that indicate Russia thought this would be a walk in the park? That's your idea of 'clearly'?

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
So, you have a military command who clearly doesn't take aid to Ukraine seriously, but then Russia felt it had to invade because Ukrainian's military


Why would you think it was Ukraine's military. Did you not read Putin's speech? He referred three times to NATO's military infrastrucure. He didn't once mention Ukraine's army.

...moving its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border.


...these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders.


Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us.


He also mentions a lot about NATO's advancing it's member's interests (as opposed to global security).

Focused on their own goals, the leading NATO countries are supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine


First a bloody military operation was waged against Belgrade, without the UN Security Council’s sanction but with combat aircraft and missiles used in the heart of Europe. The bombing of peaceful cities and vital infrastructure went on for several weeks. I have to recall these facts, because some Western colleagues prefer to forget them, and when we mentioned the event, they prefer to avoid speaking about international law, instead emphasising the circumstances which they interpret as they think necessary.

Then came the turn of Iraq, Libya and Syria.


Then he mentions the threats from political intervention (with or without military support)

We can see that the forces that staged the coup in Ukraine in 2014 have seized power

They will undoubtedly try to bring war to Crimea just as they have done in Donbass


in the 1990s and the early 2000s, when the so-called collective West was actively supporting separatism and gangs of mercenaries in southern Russia


This is not some obscure speech. It's the speech with with Putin declared his invasion. So if you're going to ignore it completely and then fish around for other reasons than the ones in the actual speech you'll have to provide some pretty compelling reasons to avoid seeming dogmatic. The (NATO-related) reasons given in the speech were infrastructure placement near Russia's borders, willingness to use NATO power to advance national interests, and manipulative involvement of NATO members in foreign politics. Since all three are provably the case, it seems bizarre that you'd scrabble about for other NATO-related reasons such as the size of Ukraine's army to use for your straw-man.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Why did Russia invade Ukraine in 2014? The main issue was Ukrainian ties to the EU


Indeed and I've consistently referred to the US, NATO and Europe in my critiques for that reason, but if you look at Putin's speech, he clearly sees the members of NATO as using the organisation for their own private ends, and the EU are mostly members of NATO. The way his speech is constructed clearly defines non-Russian entities as pretty much the same, so as far as understanding the motivations, the EU and NATO and the US are all lumped into the same basket.

one can say with good reason and confidence that the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety, the very same “empire of lies.”
frank April 16, 2022 at 16:35 #682305
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus
That makes a lot of sense. It looks like Zelensky also doesn't want it to escalate.

Thanks again.
RogueAI April 16, 2022 at 17:17 #682313
Reply to Count Timothy von Icarus If strategic nuclear weapons were used, and it was Russia vs. Western Europe and America, what would Russia's first salvo look like? Would they launch everything they have at once, or launch their nukes in waves? What kind of defenses do we have? What would our response look like?
Olivier5 April 16, 2022 at 17:35 #682316
Quoting Xtrix
Not that NATO is “evil,” but that agreements were made (alas, informal - not that that matters much either way) and quickly broken. Of course Russian propaganda will embellish the point for their own purposes. Doesn’t make it any less relevant.


The fact that Russian propaganda is feeding this narrative and blowing it out of any sensible proportion is precisely the reason we are talking about it right now. Otherwise, what relevance is there to the idea that Bush once made a promise he couldn't keep? It's long been water under the bridge.
ssu April 16, 2022 at 17:39 #682319
Quoting frank
What are their alternatives?

If Russia uses one tactical nuclear weapon, that actually isn't an existential threat. Then an Ukrainian unit or part of a city is destroyed. If it would be tens or hundreds of tactical nukes, that would be different, and then even the Russians would be nervous about the radiation effects. The Ukrainian army is so large and dispersed in a large country that one nuke doesn't matter so much. It's impact is far more political and psychological as then the Pandora's box has been opened. Never underestimate what kind of issue the media would make of it.

With the use of nuclear weapons, I think the obvious response would be widespread condemnation of the act and a global cry for imminent cessation of the hostilities. You would see it everywhere, even on this forum, how shocked people would be...and how they would get over it as the "new reality". The Zelensky government would be under immense pressure to accept a ceasefire. But so would be the Putin regime.

Likely China would at least in this case try get a ceasefire. China really wouldn't like that it's new junior ally would go off shooting nukes in Ukraine. I think the response would be that not only Russia would be embargoed, but any country that does have trade with it. So the World could start drifting to separate blocks, which spells the end of the era of globalization.

Of course, I still think the use of nukes is unlikely as Russia can still simply halt the attack and go on the defensive. Since Ukraine obviously cannot invade Russia and end this thing with having their tanks Red Square, it's all about a negotiated settlement... or simply a ceasefire and cessation of large actions and returning to the frozen conflict situation. The one that lead to only 15 000 dead in eight years. That would be a horrible outcome.

In fact, I'm not sure if there was any peace agreement that both sides agreed upon between Russia and Georgia after the Russo-Georgian war of 2008. Just a cease-fire and some attempts on a peace-agreement, I guess. But I can be wrong in this.

One alternative is that it's only Putin's successors that will make a peace-agreement with Ukraine.
ssu April 16, 2022 at 17:43 #682320
Quoting Olivier5
The fact that Russian propaganda is feeding this narrative and blowing it out of any sensible proportion is precisely the reason we are talking about it right now. Otherwise, what relevance is there to the idea that Bush once made promises he couldn't keep? It's long been water under the bridge.

I think the sinking of the Moskva and the alleged attacks on Russian towns can result that Putin finally admits this is a war. And he can declare a martial law.

I think the probability of a Russia declaring martial law has gone up.
Olivier5 April 16, 2022 at 17:51 #682322
Quoting ssu
Russia declaring martial law


Maybe but not sure what the advantage would be. Allowing conscription?
ssu April 16, 2022 at 19:02 #682334
Quoting Olivier5
Maybe but not sure what the advantage would be. Allowing conscription?

Conscription happens normally every year in Russia. With martial law you can call the reserves, those that have already done their conscription service. So basically your pool for potential soldiers jumps to the millions.

But also likely to keep up war mood (the rally around the flag phenomenon) and make things easier to deal with economy or if people have any grumblings about the war.
Count Timothy von Icarus April 16, 2022 at 21:47 #682395
Reply to frank

I should have also noted that, unlike the USSR, Russia doesn't have a policy of "no first use" for nuclear weapons.

Since 2010, they have also had an explicit first use policy of "escalate to descalate," which calls for using tactical nuclear weapons if they begin losing a conventional war, and face existential threats. The question hanging over this is "existential threats to Russia, or existential threats to Putin's rule of Russia?" Putin published a decree reaffirming this doctrine in 2020.

The idea is that the use of a tactical nuke would cause enough fear of a strategic exchange to force adversaries to compromise. It's part of a trend towards a more aggressive nuclear posture that Putin's Russia has continually made as it falls further behind its neighbors technologically and militarily.

Reply to RogueAI
For a strategic attack they would have to launch what they can before attacks on their arsenal began. I think the trickier thing is how the order would be given. If you plan it before hand, you risk a leak (and their whole invasion plan just leaked, so intentional, humint leaks and/or signals intelligence leaks could lead to a devestating first strike). If you give the order without prior indication, you risk the response being slow or people refusing to go through with it, which would compromise the strike.

The UR-100N and R-36s they have a good deal of their nuclear weapons on are near retirement date and might not work, so that's a real issue. The US arsenal is a known mess due to underfunding, and it has a budget the size of the entire Russian defense budget, so there is probably some concerns with how well the arsenal would preform, especially given the state of the conventional military in a war that was obviously planned for.
Christoffer April 16, 2022 at 21:53 #682397
Quoting Benkei
Where's the story that Ukraine was making headway with it's anti-corruption drive?


Well, if you took some time actually looking into this you would have seen it, it was pretty much shown in earlier posts of this thread at earlier points of this conflict, not that you care about it but go ahead and do some research.
Benkei April 16, 2022 at 22:19 #682401
Reply to Christoffer I did, which is why I find the claim they were making headway incredulous and was asking for clarification, instead you chose to react like a petulant child.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/26/imf-review-ukraine-debt-gdp-linked-warrants-reform/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/ukraine-russia-zelensky-putin.html


frank April 16, 2022 at 22:28 #682403
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
The idea is that the use of a tactical nuke would cause enough fear of a strategic exchange to force adversaries to compromise. It's part of a trend towards a more aggressive nuclear posture that Putin's Russia has continually made as it falls further behind its neighbors technologically and militarily.


So an embargo would likely lead to the use of strategic missiles.
Mikie April 17, 2022 at 00:33 #682429
Quoting Olivier5
The fact that Russian propaganda is feeding this narrative and blowing it out of any sensible proportion is precisely the reason we are talking about it right now. Otherwise, what relevance is there to the idea that Bush once made a promise he couldn't keep? It's long been water under the bridge.


It’s not the reason I’m talking about it. I’ve known this for years— long before this crisis. I have no access to Russian propaganda— in fact quite the opposite, I’m surrounded, here in the US, by war hawks and jingoists.

It’s hardly “water under the bridge.” It’s far more likely that that statement is a result of propaganda. I hear similar noises in the US media— when it’s mentioned at all (which is rare). That’s telling. I can see why the government would want us to forget. It’s preferable for the public to remain ignorant of the motivations of “foreigners.” They’re just terrorists, barbarians, sub-humans, etc. No sense doing anything except destroy them.



Manuel April 17, 2022 at 00:37 #682431
Reply to Xtrix

Oh. You are going to enjoy talking here.

A lot of disagreement. Some pretty wild.
Mikie April 17, 2022 at 00:43 #682433
Reply to Manuel

I fell behind this thread a while back and it’s too long for me to go through, but I’ve perused. And I see what you mean. I see a lot of people talking past each other. But I think we can all agree this is an awful situation — and exceedingly dangerous.

Manuel April 17, 2022 at 00:46 #682437
Reply to Xtrix

I can't even keep up. It's way too much.

I mean, IF this war is over, we should breathe a BIG sigh of relief. Cause' this can turn from very ugly to apocalyptical at any moment. It's hard to comprehend - or be scared through all of it either - one shuts down otherwise.

But yes, extremely dangerous. Stupid (and criminal) from Russia, the West ain't helping much either.
FreeEmotion April 17, 2022 at 01:24 #682446
Quoting ssu
With the use of nuclear weapons, I think the obvious response would be widespread condemnation of the act and a global cry for imminent cessation of the hostilities. You would see it everywhere, even on this forum, how shocked people would be...and how they would get over it as the "new reality


Any use of any nuclear device would lose Russia whatever respect it still has on the world stage, this would be the last straw that every nation in the General Assembly will not fail to condemn.

The general public does not differentiate between 'tactical' nuclear weapons or 'low yield' nuclear weapons. My feeling that Russia would embarrass every single one of its trading partners and it could cost them all the political capital they have just to trade with them. Oil and gas for as compensation - free oil and gas - would be one measure that would satisfy the nations of the world as being at least a partial compensation for a nuclear attack on Ukraine. The images would really be worth looking at.

President Putin might as well pour in all his conventional weapons into the battle first, and that I what I think we have to watch for.

Quoting ssu
One alternative is that it's only Putin's successors that will make a peace-agreement with Ukraine.


President Putin did put in a successor before - Medvedev, so it need not involve high drama. It would be a good tactical move. "Putin did it - he is now powerless, deal with me"

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Since 2010, they have also had an explicit first use policy of "escalate to descalate," which calls for using tactical nuclear weapons if they begin losing a conventional war, and face existential threats.


Makes sense, if they are going to lose anyway, but it will cost them everything but the land they are standing on. Come to think of it, it may just be to the advantage of NATO to push them into this situation.

Same with China, a 'provocation' that results in an exchange with China, and which China backs down, would be the ideal situation tactically. It worked with Japan.

Quoting Xtrix
But I think we can all agree this is an awful situation — and exceedingly dangerous.


Welcome to the human race- by which I mean the race of the powerful in the nations of the world to die with the most toys in their hands.

Quoting Manuel
But yes, extremely dangerous. Stupid (and criminal) from Russia, the West ain't helping much either.


I just would go with dangerous, predictable for Russia, and the 1% of the West trying to gobble up all the resources in sight. A sort of real life Pac-Man. Shades of Hitler's attempts to expand his empire for his people no less. That, too, was a small group of fanatics media-manipulating the people, if I remember correctly.
Benkei April 17, 2022 at 06:47 #682472
Quoting FreeEmotion
Any use of any nuclear device would lose Russia whatever respect it still has on the world stage, this would be the last straw that every nation in the General Assembly will not fail to condemn.


Every nation will condemn it and then turn around and continue to do business with Russia except for the West. If the use of nuclear weapons is so problematic, one wonders why the USA is still respected.
Olivier5 April 17, 2022 at 07:42 #682490
Quoting Xtrix
It’s hardly “water under the bridge.”


I know. NATO is evil. Evil. Evil evil evil evil.
ssu April 17, 2022 at 07:45 #682491
Quoting FreeEmotion
The general public does not differentiate between 'tactical' nuclear weapons or 'low yield' nuclear weapons.

..from strategic nuclear weapons.

And likely not in the mood to hear anyone say that it was [i]only[/ii] a small warhead.

Just to make this point: how many people would remember hearing about the Fukushima nuclear accident compared to hearing about the T?hoku earthquake and tsunami? The latter's name wouldn't be so familiar than Fukushima. Yet the tsunami killed nearly 20 000 while deaths from the Fukushima accident ...are none, actually.

Quoting FreeEmotion
President Putin did put in a successor before - Medvedev, so it need not involve high drama. It would be a good tactical move. "Putin did it - he is now powerless, deal with me"

North Korea would be more respectable than Russia then. Just changing persons likely isn't enough.

Quoting Benkei
Every nation will condemn it and then turn around and continue to do business with Russia except for the West.

I'm not so sure about that. Likely the West would put sanctions on those countries that carry on as if nothing had happened. The big issue is what China would do. So you can end up with basically a divided World and the end of globalization.

The basic problem is that Putin's Russia sees itself as what either the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union was and it is this that makes it so dangerous. It's like if after the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire Austrian leaders had decided that it was a temporary setback and all the new countries are under it's "sphere of influence". And then it would started annexing territories and intervening in the countries.

The Russian's have to wake up sometime to understand that the empire has gone. Perhaps a disastrous war will help them with this.
ssu April 17, 2022 at 07:45 #682492
Reply to Olivier5 Watch out with the amount of evils, Olivier. :wink:
Streetlight April 17, 2022 at 07:49 #682493
Quoting ssu
The basic problem is that Putin's Russia sees itself as what either the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union was and it is this that makes it so dangerous


The 'basic problem' is that Russia is attempting not to be nothing but another vassal-state to a US governed world economic order, and this is a big no-no and cannot be tolerated. That Russia's response has been a murderous war of aggression is of course squarely on it's shoulders, but to think that Russian nationalism is a problem that popped out of nowhere rather than a response to global conditions set almost entirely by the West is a farce.
ssu April 17, 2022 at 08:04 #682499
Quoting StreetlightX
The 'basic problem' is that Russia is attempting not to be nothing but another vassal-state to a US governed world economic order, and this is a big no-no and cannot be tolerated.

I think that there's actually many countries that want to keep a distance to the US. Like China and also India. Remember the BRIC countries? Yet Brazil, India or China haven't attacked for some time their neighbors.

Quoting StreetlightX
, but to think that Russian nationalism is a problem that popped out of nowhere rather than a response to global conditions set almost entirely by the West is a farce.

It hasn't popped out of nowhere.

Basically Russian history tells us how we got here. While other countries gathered colonies, Russia conquered more territory to be Russia, not colonies of Russia. And then this Imperial territory changed into an union of Soviet Republics still holding it's borders (that had been pushed even further after WW2). Hence when the Soviet Union collapsed, then was collapsing the last empire that there was. Even in Russia itself there is an internal dynamic going on here. It starts from things like the slavophiles vs the zapadniks, far before the US was any important player in the global theater.

Streetlight April 17, 2022 at 08:08 #682502
Quoting ssu
Basically Russian history tells us how we got here. While other countries gathered colonies, Russia conquered more territory to be Russia, not colonies of Russia.


Yeah, no, this is just straight racism. No thanks.

Quoting ssu
I think that there's actually many countries that want to keep a distance to the US. Like China and also India. Remember the BRIC countries?


Ah yes, China, the great friend of the US and totally not subject to bouts and bouts of extreme sinophobia all the time, every day. And India, who, because they haven't stood with the US on Ukraine, suddenly find themselves subject to investigations into 'human rights abuses' all of a sudden from the US.
ssu April 17, 2022 at 08:22 #682508
Quoting StreetlightX
Yeah, no, this is just straight racism. No thanks.

?

If India was colonized by Great Britain and Kazakh Khanate by Russia, what is racist? It's a fact. The only difference is that other imperialist Great Power continued until the collapse of the Soviet Union. People don't just see the colonialism in Russia.

Reply to StreetlightX Don't then leave Brazil out of the club. When Brazil decided to get into lucrative satellite launching service with their own space program, one country deeply opposed this. I think you know who.

Benkei April 17, 2022 at 08:22 #682510
@ssu do you think it's a good idea for Finland to join NATO? Or is there any alternative in the world of the possible (including the improbable) that you would prefer?

Do you think a referendum on a European army would give different results if we'd have one now?
Benkei April 17, 2022 at 08:24 #682511
Quoting ssu
Don't then leave Brazil out of the club. When Brazil decided to get into lucrative satellite launching service with their own space program, one country deeply opposed this. I think you know who.


I don't. Or was this about who got to launch the satellites? India vs US?
ssu April 17, 2022 at 08:27 #682512
Quoting Benkei
so you think it's a good idea for Finland to join NATO? Or is there any alternative in the world of the possible (including the improbable) that you would prefer?

We are only fooling ourselves now, actually. Everybody can see how reckless Russia can be.

Quoting Benkei
Do you think a referendum on a European army would give different results if we'd have one now?

Oh boy!

Would the Finns have liked that! EU having a defensive dimension was a wet dream of many Finnish politicians. Something extremely easy to "join"...as we already are in the EU.

That actually would happen if Trump would have it's way and he would have dissolved NATO.
Streetlight April 17, 2022 at 08:32 #682514
Quoting ssu
If India was colonized by Great Britain and Kazakh Khanate by Russia, what is racist? It's a fact. The only difference is that other imperialist Great Power continued until the collapse of the Soviet Union. People don't just see the colonialism in Russia.


[Group of people X] have always been violent. Therefore, this explains why [group of people X] will continue to be violent. "These are just facts. It's just history bro". Maybe try to be less racist.
ssu April 17, 2022 at 08:34 #682516
Quoting Benkei
I don't. Or was this about who got to launch the satellites? India vs US?

Brazil was the case. But of course India is another player too.

Basically the US uses it's foreign policy to keep competition out. Now usually it happens with trade barriers, whereby it just shoots itself in the foot as industries protected by trade barriers don't have to compete. With space tech it can push out competition on the basis that naturally if have rockets that can put satellites into space, you can also make intercontinental ballistic missiles.

But this is the typical assholery that nearly every country can do. But yet international trade happens and the US isn't on the top of everything.
ssu April 17, 2022 at 08:38 #682518
Quoting StreetlightX
[Group of people X] have always been violent. Therefore, this explains why [group of people X] will continue to be violent. "These are just facts". Maybe try to be less racist.

Ah, I understand your point. I don't like the rhetoric of "Russians will never change" or "Russia will never be democratic" either.

Well, I think a lot of Russian aren't happy with imperialist bullshit of Putin. A lot of Russians are against the present militarism and policies that Putin is driving.

Hopefully a disastrous war will make them really to change course. Usually countries change course dramatically only when everybody can see what a disaster the previous course was.

The unfortunate thing was that the US didn't have and seems it won't have a rethink after it's 20 year war in Afghanistan -debacle. Perhaps too few Americans died for there to be that discussion.
Streetlight April 17, 2022 at 08:40 #682520
Quoting ssu
Usually countries change course dramatically only when everybody can see what a disaster the previous course was.


This I can agree with. Unfortuntely, without any recognition of the role that the West has played in bringing this disaster about - and subsequently affecting change there too - such sentiments are just more White Man's Burden bullshit.
ssu April 17, 2022 at 08:55 #682528
Quoting StreetlightX
This I can agree with. Unfortuntely, without any recognition of the role that the West has played in bringing this disaster about - and subsequently affecting change there too - such sentiments are just more White Man's Burden bullshit.

When errors are made, they should be pointed out.

Yet the agency and agendas of all players ought not be forgotten. Looking at the events from the agenda and objectives of one player, the West or more plainly the US and it's administrations, doesn't give you a correct view.
jorndoe April 17, 2022 at 09:11 #682537
Reply to Isaac, it's no longer news, and hasn't been for some time: No NATO membership for Ukraine (said both by NATO and Ukraine). It hasn't been an excuse for a while. Bombs are still going, though, which sort of makes the demand/excuse a bit suspect. And, going by rumors, Russia is ramping up military "operations" (convoys, conscriptions, whatever), instead of committing more to diplomacy/negotiations/assurances.

So, the wretched nuclear ? (plus perhaps ? ?) scenario... The threat has been made by Putin and taken seriously enough. I doubt anyone wants to call him out on it, yet how far can the "hostage-taking" be taken? Where's the threshold (if any)? Presumably, Putin making good on his threats would be.

Streetlight April 17, 2022 at 09:16 #682538
Quoting ssu
Yet the agency and agendas of all players ought not be forgotten. Looking at the events from the agenda and objectives of one player, the West or more plainly the US and it's administrations, doesn't give you a correct view.


It is absolutely legitimate to heap focus on the most destructive and powerful imperial agent on the face of the Earth, especially as a bulwark against those who continue to swallow Western propaganda wholesale while spouting off racist narratives as a matter of casual conversation.
frank April 17, 2022 at 09:25 #682541
Quoting StreetlightX
It is absolutely legitimate to heap focus on the most destructive and powerful imperial agent on the face of the Earth, especially as a bulwark against those who continue to swallow Western propaganda wholesale while spouting off racist narratives as a matter of casual conversation.


Keep up the good work. :up:
Streetlight April 17, 2022 at 09:25 #682543
Reply to frank Thanks bae
frank April 17, 2022 at 09:26 #682544
There's a path from here directly to global nuclear war. Can't say that every day.
Benkei April 17, 2022 at 09:34 #682549
Reply to jorndoe It's still in their constitution and to ensure long term neutrality, giving Donetsk and Luhansk independence in a federal relationship with the rest of Ukraine means pro-Russian regions can veto federal policy. So that seems the goal for the Russians to me. Russia is better off with those regions continuing to be part of Ukraine to keep it "neutral" so they will be prepared to negotiate. Also, this was pretty much the goal of the Minsk agreements. Second best would be full independence from their perspective.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has signaled it will only accept neutrality if that is guaranteed by other counties than Russia. However, those other countries do not want another "article 5"-like obligation towards Ukraine.

I think the second point is harder to solve but clearly reflects a legitimate interest of Ukraine, so it needs to be solved. The only way there is probably us the US and Russia negotiate a non-intervention treaty to stop fucking around in Ukrainian internal politics. However, the US so far refused to take part in negotiations. I think that has to do with the "bleed the Russians" policy.

Benkei April 17, 2022 at 09:53 #682560
Reply to frank If it does, I do hope nuclear winter and global warming cancel each other out.
Isaac April 17, 2022 at 10:10 #682574
Quoting ssu
Looking at the events from the agenda and objectives of one player, the West or more plainly the US and it's administrations, doesn't give you a correct view.


Looking at events from the agenda only of hairdressing doesn't give you a correct view, so that too should be avoided. Fortunately no one's doing that either.
Olivier5 April 17, 2022 at 10:18 #682580
Reply to ssu On a more serious note, the morality of a military alliance such as NATO seems an interesting question, in terms of what criteria should be used. How would one recognise a 'moral alliance', or perhaps more modestly a 'legitimate defense league', and what's the difference with an 'unholy alliance' or an 'imperialist clique'?

We cannot use common human morality criteria, such as 'thou shall not kill' because evidently military folks do kill people occasionally. It's their job.

The kind of criteria to use are at governance level, the level studied by Macchiaveli, Marx and co. At this level, one may kill Peter to save Paul, so to speak. Things get complicated.

One criterion I would use is whether independent states can join the alliance and leave it on their own will, free of coercion, and based on some democratic process. Because then one can conclude that the alliance stems from the legitimate will of legitimate governments.

Another criterion may be whether the alliance is defensive or offensive, most of times. This is based on the idea legitimate self-defense against illegitimate aggression.
Isaac April 17, 2022 at 10:41 #682591
Quoting jorndoe
No NATO membership for Ukraine (said both by NATO and Ukraine). It hasn't been an excuse for a while.


As I pointed out. Putin's speech clearly shows that his agenda is not limited to a simple binary promise. He associates NATO membership, EU membership and economic ties with US imperialism, interference and a sort of 'Western decadence'. It's going to take more than a casual promise. After all, NATO-Russia relations have stumbled over casual promises before ("not an inch eastwards"), no?

Quoting jorndoe
Russia is ramping up military "operations" (convoys, conscriptions, whatever), instead of committing more to diplomacy/negotiations/assurances.


But again there's this dual narrative. Is Russia losing or not? If Russia are losing, then you can hardly cite a ramping up of military commitment as an indication of their having wider objectives. If they're losing, then they'll need to ramp up military commitments just to maintain the pressure they currently have. If, on the other hand, you want to go with the idea that this additional military investment is intended to add additional pressure, for further objectives, then we can't also have the narrative that Russia are about to lose and only a little more pressure could see them off.

Quoting jorndoe
So, the wretched nuclear ? (plus perhaps ? ?) scenario... The threat has been made by Putin and taken seriously enough. I doubt anyone wants to call him out on it, yet how far can the "hostage-taking" be taken? Where's the threshold (if any)?


The trouble is not with the question of thresholds, the trouble is with the assumption about methods. Putin's "hostage-taking" ought not to be be taken any distance at all. It ought to be resisted from day one. But that resistance needn't be military. The lack of non-military options is not a result of there being none, it's a direct result of America and Europe simply not wanting to explore any.
frank April 17, 2022 at 10:46 #682592
Quoting Benkei
If it does, I do hope nuclear winter and global warming cancel each other out.


That would be nice, but I don't think it works that way.
FreeEmotion April 17, 2022 at 11:42 #682614
Quoting ssu
Every nation will condemn it and then turn around and continue to do business with Russia except for the West.
— Benkei
I'm not so sure about that. Likely the West would put sanctions on those countries that carry on as if nothing had happened.


Doing business under a nuclear discount "I will be paying for Russian oil in Rupees, you nuclear junkies"

Quoting ssu
The Russian's have to wake up sometime to understand that the empire has gone. Perhaps a disastrous war will help them with this.


I see it this way: Russia has woken up, realizing everything is slip-sliding away from them unless they put a buffer stop of Ukraine and Crimea. Even so, there is no guarantee the West will destroy the rest. It is impossible to mistake the intentions of the Western Elites (WE) not the United States (US).
neomac April 17, 2022 at 11:49 #682617
Reply to Isaac

[i]>(2) doesn't even mention 'defending one's nation'. Not to mention it's denying a claim I didn't make, not making a claim itself.[/I]

It seems you weren’t following this argument either. So, let’s recapitulate, Ukrainians are fighting a patriotic war against the Russian invasion, you claimed that “defending one's nation’ alone is insufficient as a moral reason” because “the rich oppress the poor far more consistently than one nation oppresses another.” In other words, the insufficiency claim just implies that one has more reason to fight against a greater oppressor, but it doesn’t deny that one has a moral reason to fight against a lesser oppressor (as much as having an insufficient amount of food doesn’t imply having no food). That was unexpected though because you claimed elsewhere that fighting over a flag is no doubt always immoral, so no moral reason at all ever.
To make sure you really meant what I understood about your moral reason insufficiency claim, I observed: “You could claim that one is morally more justified in fighting X over Y, because X is more oppressive, but that doesn’t equate to claiming that one has no moral reason to fight Y.” In my observation I used “fight Y” (e.g. fighting the Russian invasion) to refer to your “defending one's nation” for the obvious reason that this was what we were talking about and I too intend the Ukrainian war primarily as a patriotic resistance by the Ukrainians against the Russian invasion. That’s why there was no need to explicitly mention “defending one's nation” in (2). Then you answered: “Yes. Which would probably be why I didn't make such a claim.” So by saying “yes” you were agreeing to all of this statement “You could claim that one is morally more justified in fighting X over Y, because X is more oppressive, but that doesn’t equate to claiming that one has no moral reason to fight Y.” And since you agreed with this statement it followed that you didn’t make the opposite claim.
So even if it were true that your response “it's denying a claim I didn't make, not making a claim itself”, yet you agreed to my claim by saying “yes” and by using my claim to justify why you didn’t make a certain other claim. My objections to your position follow from what you agreed to in the context of that exchange, namely that “defending one's nation” is a moral reason however insufficient.


[I]> None of that means Zelensky is 'constrained' by the de facto circumstances as some kind of rule 'one must always be constrained by the de facto circumstances' It just so happens that the actual de facto circumstances in this case are morally relevant because lives will be expended in trying to improve on them.[/I]

We are past that. De facto circumstances in this case include also a conflict between American and Russian expansionism. And this too has moral relevance: “Seeing this crisis as an inevitable result of capitalist imperialism lend support to the fight against capitalist imperialism, which is a good thing.”.


[I]> Here, for example is a paper on the multi-causal analysis of the conflict in Algeria from Oxford University. Either point out the maths that I've clearly missed in that paper, or take up with Oxford University, their evident lack of deference to your greater knowledge in this regard.[/I]

A part from the fact that in this paper there is a certain amount of stats from politics, demographics, economics (necessary to support related explanatory hypothesis), that the analysis is systemic (and so it goes beyond the intended or foreseeable consequences of decision makers), and that you didn’t offer any such analysis, the point is that we are talking about blame and moral responsibility of Zelensky wrt Putin, or Western administrations wrt Putin, and if you want to use a multi-causal explanation to support related claims you should go through the kind of analysis I suggested. Or else, stop talking about multi-causal analysis pointlessly (since you didn’t offer any anyways), and start reasoning in terms of moral responsibility by analogy with legal responsibility assessment, as much as a judge would do on a crime case trial (whence my problem with your blaming the victim attitude). That’s also relevant to address moral implications in terms of a criterium of proportionality.


[i]> I mean you've not given reasons for your choice of method. You've said you take into account what others value, for example. You've not said why you do that.[/I]

Then, are your moral claims arbitrary too for you didn’t give any reason for your choice of method to determine your moral claims, as far as I remember?
On my side, I find quite preposterous to claim that somebody is making arbitrary claims only because he didn’t tell you what his reasons for his claims are yet.
Besides that’s my take about arbitrary moral claims:
“ I’m not judging based on my own preferences alone, nor am I judging without rationally processing a load of information which include people preferences among other things (for example, the feedback from different experts concerning the strategic stakes of this war). So my moral approach is the opposite of “arbitrary” as I understand the word “arbitrary”. Actually that’s the reason why I support this approach.
On the contrary, I find arbitrary your claim that fighting a war for one’s nation is no doubt always immoral, precisely because it doesn’t take into account what other people value, but only what you value (i.e. life) and prior to any rational processing of the situation at hand.”

[I]> I don't need to prove they are more plausible, or more likely to be the case because you didn't make the original claim that you merely preferred your opinion, or found it more plausible. Your claim was that the alternative was actually 'preposterous'.

> Remember, what I'm arguing against here is your claims that alternative positions are 'preposterous'. The fact that you can come up with scenarios which are plausible to support your position doesn't support that claim. You'd have to show that these scenarios were somehow the only plausible outcomes.

> Because assessing my alternatives is not necessary for a successful critique of your position. For your position to hold you'd have to support the claim that there literally are no alternatives.
No solutions other than the one you prefer. That's ridiculous, hence a stupid line of argument. The point I'm making here only requires that other solutions exist and it's 'stupid' to deny that.[/i]

I didn’t claim nor implied anywhere that “there literally are no alternatives”, “No solutions other than the one you [referred to me] prefer”. The way you frame my position is not just a fallacious straw men argument, but probably a delusional projection of your own “stupid” views (by your own definition). Indeed my focus has been always 2 moral claims of yours:
- Recklessly endangering millions of people by knowingly provoking a ruthless tyrant without any meaningful protection for those he might attack is immoral (as an accusation against the West). (“Seeing this crisis as an inevitable result of capitalist imperialism lend support to the fight against capitalist imperialism, which is a good thing.”)
- Fighting a war over a flag is no doubt always immoral.
Your 2 claims looked pretty much radical, peremptory and one-sided, so incompatible with alternative or more nuanced views. That is why I didn’t hesitate in calling them preposterous and argued against them. Then you insisted on supporting your preposterous claims with further claims (some of which still sounded preposterous to me) , I counter-argued against them too. And so on. And add to that your reluctance to properly argue and clarify your own views which just reinforced my impression of your close-mindedness.
If you simply presented your position as a dilemma over option1 and option2 from the start, I would have still argued the way I did in the related comment, but I wouldn’t have called your dilemma nor your preference for option2 preposterous as I didn’t do it in the related comment.


> Yeah, right. You just conducted a completely impartial assessment of the evidence, sure.

Didn’t claim nor implied I’m impartial, I just said how it works with me. For example, I didn’t get interested in this war because triggered by strong prior biases against “Russian imperialism” (actually, before the war started, I had stronger prior biases against “American imperialism”, after seeing what they have done in the Middle East) and then looked for whatever expert (with titles and no evident conflict of interest) supported a narrative accusing “Russian imperialism” also for the war in Ukraine. I started with the war news in Ukraine and from there I did my research for expert advise (this rebalanced my attitude toward “American imperialism”)

> Who said anything about helping Russia win?

I am, based on what you support in a negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, and other claims of yours such as “Seeing this crisis as an inevitable result of capitalist imperialism lend support to the fight against capitalist imperialism, which is a good thing.”

[i]> since we are in a philosophy forum, here is a thought experiment for you: if it was the American army invading and bombing some country (say Mexico) the same way Russia is doing in Ukraine, with similar results of Russia in Ukraine, with similar indirect military support from Russia as Ukraine gets from the West, and with similar negotiations conditions from America as Ukraine gets from Russia, and all else equal, then would you have more likely supported those fighting a patriotic war against the American imperialistic capitalism (as well as Russian indirect military support) or would you have more likely supported surrender to the American imperialistic capitalism? — neomac
Interesting. What exactly did you expect to get from this? You fabricate a position you know full well I wouldn't admit to holding (that I support Russia) then ask a transparent 'thought experiment' the answer to which expects me to admit to the one position you already knew I wouldn't admit to. Surely you can see the flaw in that strategy?[/i]

No idea what you are talking about. And at this point it doesn’t really matter what you are ready to admit. For me, you can remove Russia from my thought experiment and put any other you like, say Venezuela or China or India or Tibet or Malta. The question is always the same would you support a patriotic fight or would you support surrender to the American imperialistic capitalism? Yes or no? Don’t waste your time guessing my expectations. I can’t remember a single time you succeeded.


> If someone is sufficiently qualified and without any conflict of interest, you're not in a position to dismiss their conclusions as dubious simply because you don't like them or they're not what you expected.

It’s pointless to guess things when I clarified already my position (“I can compare for example their titles or their arguments or how much they converge with the opinion of other experts, etc.”, “double-check based on what I find logic or consistent with other sources and background knowledge”). Besides I have no interest in talking about Luc Montagnier in a thread about the war in Ukraine.

[i]> Really? If you were looking for a military expert you've no idea how to tell if they're qualified? Is there some compelling reason university tenure and/or doctorate-level qualification would be insufficient for you?

> How? If you're a non-expert, how can you meaningfully compare their arguments? And what relevance does it have how much they converge with the opinion of other experts?[/i]

Your questions show a poor understanding of what I’ve already said. Besides you could ask the last ones to yourself since you talked about “an overwhelming quantity of foreign policy and strategic experts” to make a point. I could elaborate my ideas further, yet the subject of this thread is the war in Ukraine not whatever unsolicited intellectual failure of yours I happen to witness. So let’s stay focused on the war in Ukraine.

> Where, in that, do I "praise" a Russian puppet government?

Just poor phrasing on my part due to the fact that I was thinking in terms of comparative advertising strategy: roughly, praise one option over the other to suggest the option to choose without actually saying it. The point is still that in framing the negotiation options, the option you presented in a positive light and support include the Russian puppet government, by contrast, the option you presented in a negative light and reject included Zelensky’s government. Besides the mention of the Russian puppet government in the option you support was unnecessary (for this condition was already withdrawn by the Russians and you could have simply kept Zelensky’s government) and unmotivated, therefore suspicious: as if this inclusion was implicitly motivated by whatever reason one could imagine you would plausibly support (e.g. avoiding the risk of future clashes between Zelensky and Putin, punishing Zelensky’s immoral political conduct in this war, keeping up the hostility against the American capitalist imperialism, pleasing Putin for mercy, etc.) in light of your other claims about Zelensky, the West, etc.
From this unnecessary yet plausibly motivated contrast, I had the strong impression you were implicitly supporting a regime change too. And that’s it.


[i]> Following your link “https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/671136” I couldn’t find any reference to the fact that your option 2 is the best one as you suggest. — neomac
So? [/i]

Never mind. I thought you wanted to suggest experts who support option2, instead of generically pointing to the same experts' quotations we have already discussed, which would be pointless.

> The plausibility was never in question. The truth was.

Then your objections were pointless. Now for the third time. And that’s it.

> 'Similar' and 'the same' are similar, but not the same.

Impressive yet so pointless. The 2 cases were similar because they both fell under the same general principle you suggested here: “If you don't agree then you'd have to offer an alternative theory of moral responsibility; one in which people can make decisions without any blame accruing to them for the foreseeable outcomes.” Now, if from that general principle follows that Zelensky is blameworthy, then the same holds for the poor. And that’s it.

[i]> I have to prove nothing of the sort because I'm not the one claiming your position is preposterous. Look back at our conversation. Who made claims and who questioned them?

>Again, I'm not putting claims out there for you to analyse. Why you'd think I'd want want some laymen off the internet to analyse my claims is beyond me.[/i]

And yet you claimed: “All we can ever do on a site like this is enquire about people's reasons for holding the views they hold. The entire enterprise if pointless otherwise. If you're going to answer ‘because of some reasons’, then we might as well give up here. I’m asking about what those reasons are, I assumed you had some.”
In other words, I’m in the right place for questioning your claims, as you yourself acknowledged. So suck it up and move on.

> Your argument relies on this not being the case, so it is incumbent on you (if you want to support your argument) to disprove it. I've not interest in supporting my case here (I don't even believe it's possible to support such a case in a few hundred words on an internet forum, and even if I did, I wouldn't make such a case as I've no expertise in the matter).

No dude, if you do not want to play the game, then let’s close it here, but you don’t get to decide what the rules of the game are for me. On a given topic, if one makes a claim, it’s on him to argue for it, if challenged (and also the challenge should be argued). That’s the game I’m playing in a philosophy forum. Period.
FreeEmotion April 17, 2022 at 12:09 #682623
Quoting Benkei
If the use of nuclear weapons is so problematic, one wonders why the USA is still respected.


As I have explained before, when the US used nuclear weapons against Japan, they were on the side of many of the nations of the world that were actually attacked by Japan: China, India, Burma, Singapore, Malaysia. Those bombs were dropped from our side, the Asian side, by the allies who were protecting the east actively, and sacrificing their lives.

Ukraine did not attack India and China, and they are not at war with Ukraine. If bombs fall on those we support, or sympathize with, we say it is bad. If bombs are dropped on a nation that saw it fit to carry out a massive imperialist drive across oceans land and attack us, then we think that is good.