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Ukraine Crisis

Manuel January 25, 2022 at 03:28 76975 views 18084 comments
The situation in Ukraine is becoming more dire by the minute. NATO is implying Russia is planning to invade Ukraine, whereas Russia denies this. Russia claims it will not allow Ukraine to enter NATO, as this would effectively put a hostile military alliance - NATO - right at the borders of Russia.

There's also political maneuvering going around, with the US never wanting a lack of enemies - soon after the disaster in Afghanistan. And Putin is wanting to shift attention away from pretty bad conditions in Russia do to the COVID pandemic and rising prices.

The situation is quite dire and could escalate into something very, very dangerous.

Here are a few links for those interested:

NATO sends reinforcements to Eastern Europe amid Russia tensions
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/24/nato-sends-reinforcements-to-eastern-europe-amid-russian-anger

Russian naval exercises off Ireland's coast 'not welcome,' says Foreign Minister
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/24/europe/russia-naval-exercise-ireland-intl/index.html

Pentagon reveals number of US troops on higher alert over Ukraine
https://www.rt.com/russia/547231-pentagon-troops-europe-ukraine/

Rising costs of Ukraine gamble could force Russia’s hand
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/24/rising-costs-of-ukraine-gamble-could-force-russias-hand

Let's hope things don't escalate too much more. Welcome 2022...

Comments (18084)

Tzeentch July 13, 2025 at 16:47 #1000256
Quoting Mikie
Trump is now basically Biden 2.0.


That sums it up.

NATO has dug a nice hole for Ukraine.
Mikie July 13, 2025 at 18:00 #1000271
Reply to neomac

:lol: Case in point.

Quoting Tzeentch
That sums it up.

NATO has dug a nice hole for Ukraine.


Yes indeed. What’s funny is that those in the US have been fed a line of bullshit for 3 years with claims that Ukraine was holding Russia back or even “winning.”

jorndoe July 13, 2025 at 19:22 #1000287
FYI, contours of NATO polls in Ukraine by various sources:

User image

Some related events in rough chronological order:

Budapest Memorandum: signed 1994 Dec 5 — violated 2014 Feb
Euromaidan: 2013 Nov 21 — 2014 Feb 22
Revolution of Dignity: 2014 Feb 18 — 2014 Feb 23
Little green men incursion: 2014 Feb
Russo-Ukrainian War: 2014 Feb —
Russian occupation of Crimea: 2014 Feb 27 —
Russian annexation of Crimea: 2014 Mar 18
Donbas War: 2014 Apr 12 — 2022 Feb 24
Ukrainian parliamentary election interference: 2014 Oct
Russia demands NATO roll back from East Europe and stay out of Ukraine: 2021 Dec 17
Special military operation: 2022 Feb 24 —

The Kremlin has been exemplary in giving Ukraine incentive to keep seeking NATO membership, however unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Mikie July 13, 2025 at 19:44 #1000292
Quoting jorndoe
The Kremlin has been exemplary in giving Ukraine incentive to keep seeking NATO membership, however unlikely in the foreseeable future.


Sure— they invaded their country. That’s pretty good incentive.
neomac July 14, 2025 at 15:55 #1000408
More orangy claims from the orange president:
Trump pledges weapons for Ukraine, threatens secondary tariffs on Russia
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-patriot-missiles-ukraine-russia-immigration-tariffs-live-updates-rcna218469
And despite the fact that Putin has already won the war as every "smart" people in this thread - namely those who love to smell their own intellectual farts - knows.
jorndoe July 17, 2025 at 01:36 #1000960
I'm guessing the US is a couple of Trump'ers shorter. Russia is a cannon-fodder richer.

American Joins Russian Army For Citizenship, Gets A Big Surprise Instead
[sup]— Ed Scarce · Crooks and Liars · Jul 15, 2025[/sup]
Specifically, DeAnna referenced LGBT material being taught to their children in schools as motivation for moving out of the US.


American Father and Vlogger Tricked Into Front Line Combat by Russia
[sup]— Nick Pehlman · Kyiv Post · Jul 15, 2025[/sup]
[quote=DeAnna Huffman]Unfortunately, he feels like he is being thrown to the wolves right now, and he is kind of having to lean on faith.[/quote]

Importing North Korean soldiers, sending non-soldiers to war, ..., maybe they are running low.

jorndoe July 24, 2025 at 04:43 #1002286
Burney plain-opines:

Derek Burney: Disillusioned Trump tries to talk tough on Ukraine
[sup]— Derek H Burney · National Post · Jul 23, 2025[/sup]

Muscovites opine:

Mixed reactions in Russia after Trump comments on military aid for Ukraine
[sup]— AP Archive · Jul 19, 2025 · 47s[/sup]



I'll just echo Kallas: too much babble and delaying while Ukraine is bombed daily. I guess they're used to getting sh¦t all over by now.

neomac July 24, 2025 at 12:35 #1002356
Ukraine sees first major anti-government protests since start of war, as Zelensky moves to weaken anti-corruption agencies
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/23/europe/ukraine-corruption-agencies-protests-intl
jorndoe July 27, 2025 at 13:36 #1003106
Some oil trade have changed over the past three years:

How the Largest Importers of Russian Fossil Fuels Have Changed (2022 vs. 2025)
[sup]— Bruno Venditti, Sam Parker · Visual Capitalist · Apr 1, 2025[/sup]

Tzeentch July 27, 2025 at 14:21 #1003119
Reply to jorndoe A nice graph to show how Russia hasn't suffered one bit, and the EU has been played like a bunch of fools.
jorndoe July 31, 2025 at 16:09 #1004234
Reply to Tzeentch, I don't think it's a concluded story. I guess we'll see.

New EU Russia curbs may bolster Indian oil refiners' reliance on traders
[sup]— Nidhi Verma, Mohi Narayan, Trixie Sher Li Yap, Florence Tan, Tony Munroe, Jan Harvey · Reuters · Jul 21, 2025[/sup]

Exclusive: Indian state refiners pause Russian oil purchases, sources say
[sup]— Nidhi Verma, Philippa Fletcher · Reuters · Jul 31, 2025[/sup]

Besides, Europe pretending "business as usual" sends the wrong message.
neomac August 01, 2025 at 17:48 #1004441
More on Baiden 2.0 provoking innocent Russia which has already won the war since day one as everybody knows:
Trump, escalating war of words with Russia’s Medvedev, mobilizes two nuclear submarines
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/01/trump-escalating-war-of-words-with-russias-medvedev-mobilizes-two-nuclear-submarines-00488493
Mikie August 02, 2025 at 20:29 #1004638
Reply to jorndoe

This war is over. Ukraine can fight on and lose more lives, and Trump can blow smoke about it all, but Russia will keep the territory it stole. Sanctions and threats will do nothing. As we see with India, who will continue to buy Russian oil.
jorndoe August 07, 2025 at 23:58 #1005588
Did Moscow get hit by a heatwave or something?

The children of Severomorsk are told that neighbouring Nordic countries support Nazism
[sup]— The Barents Observer · 2025 Apr 15[/sup]

Moscow threatens to DESTROY Europe: nuclear blackmail, calls for war, and strikes on NATO
[sup]— UATV English · 2025 Aug 6 · 9m:18s[/sup]


We want Ukraine, as a state, to cease to exist [...]
[sup]— Bezpalko Bogdan Anatolievich via Visioner · 2025 Aug 7 · 1m:57s[/sup]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/1953392267571433697[/tweet]

Seems clear that all this...stuff is for a domestic audience.

RogueAI August 08, 2025 at 00:38 #1005601
Quoting Mikie
This war is over. Ukraine can fight on and lose more lives, and Trump can blow smoke about it all, but Russia will keep the territory it stole. Sanctions and threats will do nothing. As we see with India, who will continue to buy Russian oil.


There's already been one attempted coup in Russia. How do you know another's not brewing? Russia recently surpassed a million casualties and 200,000+ KIA. That's over 10x what they lost in Afghanistan and they eventually gave up on it. It's not a bad bet for Ukraine to be thinking Russia will lose the appetite for this military adventure as well.

neomac August 08, 2025 at 07:29 #1005658
What’s the ideological point of declaring a war over when armies are still fighting, people are still dying and no agreement even over a truce has ever been achieved?
What moral authority do such comments have, coming from those who haven’t been involved, towards those who have skin in the game?
What intellectual depth can there be in remarks that overlook the complexities of international collective dynamics and the long-term strategies of political leaders?
Mikie August 08, 2025 at 15:30 #1005696
Reply to RogueAI

People can find ways of convincing themselves of anything. It’s partly how casinos work. Wishful thinking. And of course there’s usually a modicum of truth — like the fact that someone usually wins the lottery, etc.

But this war is over. Not technically, since they’re still fighting— but for all intents and purposes, it’s over. Barring some miracle, Ukraine will come out with a crappy deal. No one said life is fair.

Wayfarer August 09, 2025 at 01:28 #1005826
This Trump-Putin summit that's been announced, likely to be in Alaska. Ukraine won't be represented, and Trump is already saying there will need to be some 'land swaps' - meaning Ukraine will need to agree to cede some of the invaded territory. I'm sure that Ukraine won't agree to do that, on principle. So at that point, what are the odds that Trump will say that Ukraine is obstructing peace, and walk away from the whole situation?

My only faint hope is that there are influential Ukraine hawks in the GOP who might prevent this scenario. But Trump is well-known for repeating the lines the last person who spoke to him has fed him. So after meeting with Putin, who Trump still seems enamoured with, despite his recent change of mood, that is the risk. He'll be outplayed by Putin, to Ukraine's' disadvantage.
neomac August 09, 2025 at 10:05 #1005871
Facts on the ground in Ukraine do not settle political matters. Land grabbing is a political issue worldwide and occurs in many regions where American national interests are involved, such as in the cases of Palestine and Taiwan. Acknowledging land grabbing would severely undermine the Westphalian principle of territorial sovereignty, which underpins international relations among modern states. So any fallout of what happens in one region can impact other regional conflicts as far as territorial sovereignty is concerned.
However what I also find worth highlighting is that in Ukraine the political issue arises from the clash between Ukrainian nationalism and Russian imperialism. In Palestine, the conflict is between two nationalisms, the Israeli and the Palestinian. In Asia, the conflict is between Chinese imperialism and Taiwanese nationalism.

Mikie August 09, 2025 at 22:11 #1005969
Quoting Wayfarer
He'll be outplayed by Putin, to Ukraine's' disadvantage.


Yep. But he’s inadvertently advocating for a solution which may end the war. Of course Ukraine won’t agree— but to expect Russia to give up the territory it’s gained is also ludicrous.

I don’t see any real deal being made here.
Wayfarer August 09, 2025 at 23:19 #1005982
Reply to Mikie It'll be more egg on the Emperor's face if no deal is reached, and Trump is going to have to shift the blame, as he always does. Anyway - let's see.
Mikie August 09, 2025 at 23:41 #1005989
Reply to Wayfarer

He’ll blame Zelensky for not taking the “Great deal.”
Wayfarer August 10, 2025 at 00:13 #1005997
Reply to Mikie Yeah that’s what I’m scared of. I think I made that prediction in this thread about 6 months ago.
Wayfarer August 10, 2025 at 04:18 #1006032
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/09/europe/trump-putin-summit-analysis-2-intl?cid=ios_app
Tzeentch August 10, 2025 at 07:45 #1006041
Quoting Mikie
He’ll blame Zelensky for not taking the “Great deal.”


He wouldn't be entirely wrong.

Genuinely, what reason is there to continue fighting? What could Ukraine possibly gain that would improve their bargaining positioning?

When a war is objectively lost, it's up to the leaders of the country to bite the bullet and ensure their soldiers aren't sacrificing their lives in vain.

It's very sour for Ukraine to be put in this situation by same the country that promised so much and delivered so little, but that's US foreign policy for you. Ukraine brought in a tiger to keep out the wolves.
Mikie August 10, 2025 at 17:00 #1006085
Quoting Tzeentch
He wouldn't be entirely wrong.

Genuinely, what reason is there to continue fighting? What could Ukraine possibly gain that would improve their bargaining positioning?


Good point. But it’s still a hard pill to swallow for many Ukrainians. And I understand that.
jorndoe August 11, 2025 at 07:10 #1006239
Wouldn't be the first time anyway ...

Putin’s warlord ally flying migrants into Europe (via yahoo)
[sup]— Joe Barnes · The Telegraph · Aug 9, 2025[/sup]

Not the only kind of hostility (has come up before in the thread). Nice peaceful people, eh?
Tzeentch August 11, 2025 at 14:12 #1006303
Reply to Mikie It's understandable from the perspective of the Ukrainian people, but political leaders in war have to deal with reality, even if it potentially means the end of their political careers.

If they are unable to set aside emotions, they're setting themselves up to be sidelined, making things even worse.
ssu August 12, 2025 at 08:40 #1006544
Let's see how the talks in Alaska will go.

Not very hopeful as Trump is a very lousy deal maker, and there's still the possibility that Trump pushes Ukraine to a lousy deal and gives everything on a platter to Putin. Not likely, but still a possibility.


Quoting jorndoe
Wouldn't be the first time anyway ...

But wouldn't hit the soft spot anymore. Europeans don't take anymore the bullshit tactics as they did earlier.
Mikie August 12, 2025 at 18:43 #1006636
Reply to ssu

Pulling support for Ukraine and Israel would be fantastic. Trump so far has done neither.

As stupid and ignorant and as a major loser as he is, ending these wars or support for them is (in his case, accidentally) a good thing.
boethius August 13, 2025 at 21:10 #1006856
I haven't updated my analysis of the military situation in a while as there hasn't been much to update.

There has been a war of attrition and there's not even any more even any talk of sending new weapons systems (much of my previous analysis being how the "next thing" sent to Ukraine isn't going to change fundamental dynamic of a war of attrition that Ukraine cannot win in any practical analysis).

However, there has been a true break through over the last couple of days.

This could be the starting of a new phase of manoeuvre warfare.

Quoting Tzeentch
Genuinely, what reason is there to continue fighting? What could Ukraine possibly gain that would improve their bargaining positioning?

When a war is objectively lost, it's up to the leaders of the country to bite the bullet and ensure their soldiers aren't sacrificing their lives in vain.


This has been true since essentially the first few months of the war, after the withdrawal of the Northern operation, that fighting to a better bargaining position is exceedingly unlikely and it has become simply more exceedingly unlikely since then.

The answer as to why? is the money.

Not just for elites but in terms of basic economic stability as well as soldiers getting paid.

In my view, people simply got used to the new system and people dying as well as the prospects of their own death.

A terrifying mix of sunk cost fallacy and defiance.
Wayfarer August 16, 2025 at 21:47 #1007669
From the day-after headlines, it seems pretty clear that Trump is going to back Putin and sell Ukraine out. Reports are circulating that Putin’s conditions for a ceasefire requiring the surrendering of territory including regions not yet under Russia’s control. I suspect Trump is going to press Putin’s case in these follow-up calls with Zelenskyy and NATO, and then accuse Ukraine of being uncooperative when they won’t go along with the terms. Marjorie Taylor Greene is already Trumpeting the view that Ukraine is the real culprit in all of this. The betrayal begins.
jorndoe August 17, 2025 at 12:26 #1007783
FYI, here's how some Russians took the Trump-Putin meeting:

Quoting Michael Getman · Aug 16, 2025

Had a successful summit in Alaska...
If you read "between the lines":
1) Ukrainians and Europeans need to screw themselves now, if they have enough money and will, and the United States is no longer their helper
2) The bosses obviously coordinated the road map of events for the convergence of the two countries
3) among other things, the United States will reduce its armed presence in Europe
4) the key issues of the convergence will be large joint economic projects, perhaps the creation of a joint infrastructure fund of direct investment for this purpose, and on the Russian side the contribution will be made by frozen assets (interesting what Europeans can do about it )
5) Since Trump is not "out of control", Russia will help slowing down Israel's ambitions
Next meeting in Beijing in two weeks with a little

Quoting Ola Ivanova · Aug 17, 2025

????????? ?????? and how do you imagine the "destruction of the United States"?

Quoting Alexander Rudko · Aug 17, 2025

??? ??????? Civil war, the overthrow of the elites and 50 independent states as a result


Not much new I guess...

Trump could trigger a financial crisis in Russia — if he wants to — but has backed off from his threat of ‘very severe consequences’
[sup]— Jason Ma · Fortune · Aug 16, 2025[/sup]
Trump to back ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia as part of peace deal
[sup]— Edward Helmore, Pjotr Sauer · Guardian · Aug 16, 2025[/sup]
RogueAI August 17, 2025 at 13:48 #1007798
Reply to Wayfarer

There are two types of deal Zelensky might take. One would involve trusting Putin to honor the terms of a deal. Zelensky would be a fool to do that. If Zelensky gave away x amount of territory to end the war, Putin would simply regroup and then invade him again when he's ready. For Zelensky, the status quo is better than that kind of deal.

The other type of deal would involve UN/NATO peacekeepers to enforce the peace, and/or NATO membership. Is something like that even possible?
Wayfarer August 18, 2025 at 04:36 #1007966
Reply to RogueAI News is breaking that Trump is demanding that Ukraine relinquish the demand for NATO membership and recognize Russian occupation of the Crimea. I have no doubt he will sell out Ukraine to placate Putin. ‘Russia hoax? What Russia hoax?’ Putin can be well pleased with his American candidate.
RogueAI August 18, 2025 at 05:28 #1007972
Reply to Wayfarer Zelensky won't go for that though. Trump could put leverage on him to try and force him to take the deal: deal or you don't get more mliitary aid from us.
Wayfarer August 18, 2025 at 05:47 #1007974
Reply to RogueAI That’s what worries me. I said he’d betray Ukraine back in February. Rubio is now saying ‘both sides have to make sacrifices.’ As if Ukraine has not sacrificed enough already.
ssu August 18, 2025 at 11:47 #1008002
Quoting Wayfarer
Rubio is now saying ‘both sides have to make sacrifices.’ As if Ukraine has not sacrificed enough already.

As if Putin has made ANY sacrifices towards peace...

User image

On the contrary, Trump is making things quite easy for him!
boethius August 18, 2025 at 15:42 #1008031
Quoting Wayfarer
The betrayal begins.


What betrayal? Ukraine was never an ally of the US or NATO.

Quoting jorndoe
FYI, here's how some Russians took the Trump-Putin meeting:

Had a successful summit in Alaska...
If you read "between the lines":
1) Ukrainians and Europeans need to screw themselves now, if they have enough money and will, and the United States is no longer their helper
2) The bosses obviously coordinated the road map of events for the convergence of the two countries
3) among other things, the United States will reduce its armed presence in Europe
4) the key issues of the convergence will be large joint economic projects, perhaps the creation of a joint infrastructure fund of direct investment for this purpose, and on the Russian side the contribution will be made by frozen assets (interesting what Europeans can do about it )
5) Since Trump is not "out of control", Russia will help slowing down Israel's ambitions
Next meeting in Beijing in two weeks with a little
— Michael Getman · Aug 16, 2025
????????? ?????? and how do you imagine the "destruction of the United States"?
— Ola Ivanova · Aug 17, 2025
??? ??????? Civil war, the overthrow of the elites and 50 independent states as a result
— Alexander Rudko · Aug 17, 2025

Not much new I guess...

Trump could trigger a financial crisis in Russia — if he wants to — but has backed off from his threat of ‘very severe consequences’
— Jason Ma · Fortune · Aug 16, 2025
Trump to back ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia as part of peace deal
— Edward Helmore, Pjotr Sauer · Guardian · Aug 16, 2025


From what I understand, micro blogging social media without making a points is now against the forum rules.

It's just weak sauce to cite other people without even making it clear if you agree, if so 100% or then 99% or whatever. The people you micro-blog aren't here to debate.

Quoting RogueAI
For Zelensky, the status quo is better than that kind of deal.


If the status quo is Ukraine cannot sustain the war of attrition then Ukraine will continue not only lose people and material but at an increasingly disproportionate rate to Russian losses, as well as continue to lose more territory and face even higher demands from Russia later to compensate the further fighting.

So, the status quo is not better for Zelensky if there is no pathway to victory or even a stalemate; the status quo simply kicks the can down the road making the situation even worse for both Zelensky and the vast majority of Ukrainians.

Quoting Wayfarer
I have no doubt he will sell out Ukraine to placate Putin.


As was predicted since the beginning of the war by parties here and many other places of sober analysis.

This was the inevitable end result ever since Russia weathered the economic sanctions (which was always extremely likely, as sanctions have never in themselves caused states to collapse in addition to Russia preparing for this very war for 8 years, if not longer, and also being backed by China who can easily substitute anything the West provided; perhaps not as efficiently in all areas but having a pump that's 39% efficient rather than 41% efficient isn't going to collapse the entire economy).

What's remarkable is that there is zero introspection all these years later on part of the people that cheerleaded Ukraine continuing to fight, for Zelensky to rebuke negotiations in every possible way (that this made him strong and intelligent), and having no plan other than to repeat that Russians should go home, and when someone points out those aren't responsible actions and just get large numbers of Ukrainians killed for no militarily achievable objective, just retort some version of "But PUTIN!"

Quoting Wayfarer
Rubio is now saying ‘both sides have to make sacrifices.’ As if Ukraine has not sacrificed enough already.


As has been explained for many pages, international relations is not a game of brownie points.

You either have the leverage or you don't.

Russia has far more leverage not just militarily over Ukraine but also in the international system, and so (as I and many other predicted) once the West, in particular the US, has squeezed all the value out of Ukraine (from the elite perspective of wanting a new cold war to dramatically increase arms spending) it's going to want to throw Ukraine under the bus and cut a deal with Russia. Russia simply has significant leverage that the West, in particular the US, can't simply ignore indefinitely.

Now if the situation that Russia has the leverage to get what it wants (i.e. Russian elites) in this situation at the expense of Ukraine is lamented and equally lamented that US also uses it's leverage to get what it wants at the expense of plenty of people, then definitely I agree the whole nation state system is lamentable.

However, for those that cheerlead US imperial actions as "rational self interest" and "benevolent hegemony" and even explain how using Ukraine to damage the Russians was a smart US imperial move and so on, it is really difficult to stomach all these "dastardly Putin!" and fist shaking in the air type of comments, is simply incredibly hollow.

Quoting ssu
On the contrary, Trump is making things quite easy for him!


Ukraine is losing, Trump likes winners.

But the end game here has nothing to do with Trump. US was never going to risk nuclear war over Ukraine (they were always clear about that: No WWIII), and so the policy was to simply prop Ukraine up the time that was useful to do (mostly to lock-in a new cold war and the EU buying US natural gas, also buy up all the assets on the Ukrainian side), and once Ukraine starts to lose to cut them loose.

The only legitimate militaristic pro-Ukraine stance would have been sending Western troops into Ukraine to "standup" to the Russians beside their Ukrainian "friends". People who have no problem with the idea that's simply not possible, as the Biden administration explained many times "for reasons", have been cheering on the exact scenario that is playing out.

The Biden administration laid it out many times: no armour, no escalation, no WWIII, no boots on the ground, no missiles, no planes, no strikes in Russia ... i.e. no pissing off the Russians too much, and what would piss them off too much is losing. The policies that did change is always after Ukraine capacity was destroyed to an extent that changing the police, such as sending the missiles, would not place the Russians at greater risk of losing (would annoy them, for sure, but not the extent of losing).

What's the end point of such a police? Ukraine losing a war of attrition "calibrated" to lose (to use the RAND terminology), and once that becomes clear blame everything on Ukrainians: they wanted to fight and we didn't force them, and they just didn't want it bad enough and those clever Russians did, and we've even been paying for everything so they should be grateful, and so on.

Prediction made by me and others years ago.

The only counter-point to the prediction that Ukrainian "friends" won't fare any better than Afghani "friends" was that Ukraine and the US were more culturally similar (aka. white) and so the US wouldn't possibly leave Ukraine hanging like they left the Afghanis (when their brown, let them down, was the attitude that explained why what happened to Afghanistan was not a cause for concern).
ssu August 18, 2025 at 18:43 #1008070
Quoting boethius
But the end game here has nothing to do with Trump. US was never going to risk nuclear war over Ukraine

Lol.

Putin won't risk nuclear war over Ukraine. His nuclear rambling has already paid well off for him.

And this has to do everything with agent Trumpov and how mesmerized he is with Putin. At least now Trump says something negative of Putin, but he still claps for the dictator.

Quoting boethius
The only legitimate militaristic pro-Ukraine stance would have been sending Western troops into Ukraine to "standup" to the Russians beside their Ukrainian "friends".

The good pro-Ukrainian stance would have to give them everything they needed right from the start and then also to take seriously the threat that Russia poses and truly start building up European military industry right from the start. To be afraid of Putin's nuclear rattling was the failure. This game has been played in the Cold War already, hence full commitment on your ally fighting the enemy is the correct thing to do.Trump's increase of military spending to 5% has been one of the good things that idiot has done.
RogueAI August 18, 2025 at 19:00 #1008076
Reply to boethius Shouldn't you be doing something about the Child Trafficking Operation We Should All Do Something About? Why are you wasting time quislinging for Russia?
boethius August 18, 2025 at 19:37 #1008083
Quoting ssu
Lol.

Putin won't risk nuclear war over Ukraine. His nuclear rambling has already paid well off for him.


Well then why not just give Ukraine a bunch of nukes to end the war 3 years ago?

Why all this "no one wants world war 3 man" from the Biden administration to explain not sending in armour, then some armour nut not tanks, then not sending missiles, then missiles beyond a certain range, and not sending fighter jets, and limiting what can be struck and so on.

What exactly is your argument? That Putin's nuclear ramblings have paid off in terms of deterring the West from the kinds of military support that may end up in a loss? I.e. that what I explain is exactly what you're explaining, but somehow my version of the exact same thing is laughable?

Of are you saying that Putin manage to fool Biden and most if not all of the Biden administration, and even boethius of the philosophy forum, but he hasn't fooled you? You remain unfooled and would have not hesitated to send Ukraine whatever it wants because Putin's bluffing with his nuke talk?

And what ramblings? Putin rarely talks about nuclear weapons.

The deterrent effect here is having the nuclear weapons, not so much speaking about them.

Quoting ssu
And this has to do everything with agent Trumpov and how mesmerized he is with Putin. At least now Trump says something negative of Putin, but he still claps for the dictator.


Ok, sure, but then why didn't saint Biden end the war by giving Ukraine nuclear weapons or then all the good conventional stuff from day 1?

What's the sense of your argument? The current state of the war in Ukraine was determined during the Biden administration. Ukraine and its "friends" have been openly talking about their man power problem and man power disadvantage for a while now, which is not solved by more weapons even if the US had them in abundance (which they simply do not seem to have).

The weapons production problem, again, is the result of the Biden administration who could have executed a crash program of shells, and drones and other arms production to ensure Ukraine was flush with weapons while it still had a solid and substantial military core of soldiers.

A production program which, had it been executed at the start of the way, would have probably actually resulted in an actual stalemate with the Russians, but instead Ukraine has weathers under a shell disadvantage of 7-10 to 1 (in addition to being disadvantaged in every other weapons system, such as glide bombs, drones, armour and so on).

Western talking heads prattle on about Russia's arms production advantage, all while boasting of the West's economic might dwarfing Russia in GDP (when it's important to make the point that Russia is a backwrter and not a "player"), but don't put two and two together and come to the obvious conclusion that it's a Western policy choice to not produce enough arms for Ukraine to significantly hamper the Russians.

Quoting ssu
The good pro-Ukrainian stance would have to give them everything they needed right from the start and then also to take seriously the threat that Russia poses and truly start building up European military industry right from the start.


Thank you, we're in agreement.

The problem with the Western policy is that it is designed intentionally to not pose a serious threat to the Russians. It is duplicitous manipulation essentially optimized to harm Ukraine as much as possible to achieve other ends.

That is my issue with the Western policy since the start of the war, since the declaration that armour won't be sent to Ukraine, then sending a bit, then a bit more, and then keeping up the drip feed of weapons just enough for Ukraine to get decimated in it's war fighting capacity and demographics.

The reason the West was never serious (long before Trump) about supporting Ukraine is because had they done so, applied the military leverage at their disposal, that would have forced a resolution, as everyone would see Russia is being pushed to nuclear weapons use and then too many people act out of self preservation for such madness to continue.

But the goal was never to resolve this war in a way to help Ukraine under any plausible definition of the word help.

Quoting ssu
To be afraid of Putin's nuclear rattling was the failure.


It is not a failure in reasoning to be afraid of nuclear weapons.

Quoting ssu
This game has been played in the Cold War already, hence full commitment on your ally fighting the enemy is the correct thing to do.


A game played to terrifyingly close to full strategic nuclear exchange (with far more nuclear weapons than exist now).

And again, post-Soviet Ukraine is not and has never been an ally of the US or NATO or any country in NATO.

The error in reasoning that has occurred is expecting a non-ally to do ally type of things.

For if not an ally what is Ukraine? A useful tool by definition.

Quoting ssu
Trump's increase of military spending to 5% has been one of the good things that idiot has done.


It really depends on how the money is spent and also the broader impact on the economy.

None of the pro-NATO people here are concerned about how much money is spent by the West year on year and that somehow critical weapons systems run out and can't be replaced at even a small fraction of what the Russians can produce?
boethius August 18, 2025 at 19:49 #1008085
Quoting RogueAI
?boethius Shouldn't you be doing something about the Child Trafficking Operation We Should All Do Something About?


I am. There are two ongoing investigations (that I know of): one by the ministry of health and another by a corporation involved. I finished compiling all the private information I have about it yesterday.

Quoting RogueAI
Why are you wasting time quislinging for Russia?


I (and many others; I'm by no means alone in saying so) predict 3 years ago that Ukraine will go the way of our Afghani "friends" and be propped up the time they are useful and then cut loose as soon as they aren't.

There's never any counter argument presented to this prediction, just endless moralizing about how bad Putin is and how great Zelensky is.

The prediction comes true as even the pro-Zelenkiytes here seem to agree, and yet there is zero self reflection on what this cheerleading for Zelensky has accomplished these 3 years.

And even now, to point out facts (such as the pattern the US has of abandoning their "friends" once no longer of use, or that Russia is a lot bigger than Ukraine in size and population, and the policy is clearly to drip feed weapons to Ukraine precisely so there is nothing "serious" that threatens the Russians and so on) is somehow even now pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.

I'm the only one here that advocated for sending troops into Ukraine, as that would very likely force a peace settlement and if done in a sensible way with sensible diplomatic options on the table would be less likely, not more likely, to escalate to nuclear weapons use. The end result would have been super likely a new security architecture to ensure peace going forward (what Russia wanted and so even entertaining the idea was "Putinistic") and far, far less Ukrainian dead and damage to Ukraine as a nation.

Of course I also explained that's not an option even being considered by Western politicians and talking heads, because helping Ukraine isn't the goal! They straight forwardly inform us the goal is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. That's not what "friends" do, much less allies.

This whole 1 million Ukrainian dead saga is a lesson in actions speak louder than words. Doesn't matter what the West says, if they aren't going to send their own troops to a fight then it's because the issue doesn't matter that much to them; and both politicians and the vast majority of regular people in the West would all say without hesitation since the war began that of course none of their own soldiers should be sent to Ukraine. The conclusion therefore should be that clearly this issue of Ukrainian sovereignty simply doesn't matter much to the West and they shouldn't be relied on to "do whatever it takes" and deliver on other empty promises.
Wayfarer August 18, 2025 at 23:59 #1008139
Reply to ssu Seems Zelenkskyy played his hand very well in the Oval Office meeting. Media is reporting that he even got a laugh out of Trump - very difficult thing to do, and probably as significant as getting a sign-off, given Trump's character.

Quoting boethius
if they aren't going to send their own troops to a fight then it's because the issue doesn't matter that much to them


You don't think the prospect of a general European war against the country with the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet might be a consideration?
Banno August 19, 2025 at 00:16 #1008140
Remember when Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons for Security guarantees?

It don't go so well.
jorndoe August 19, 2025 at 04:28 #1008166
:up: to Melania if the reports are accurate:

Melania Trump Letter to Putin Handed Over in Alaska (— Newsweek · Aug 16, 2025)

Trump

• cut tracking of kidnapped Ukrainian children
• blocked aid approved by Congress
• disbanded sanctions enforcement
• opposed oil price cap at G7
• paused intelligence sharing to Ukraine
• voted against a UN resolution condemning the aggression
• provided Putin a boost in Alaska, red carpet too
• re-confirmed his odd affinity for Putin

Something's off, but what? Personality quirk or something?

User image
Artwork by Alesha Stupin

Tzeentch August 19, 2025 at 06:16 #1008183
I have to say that it's somewhat amusing to witness the response to this collective reality check. :lol:

As Nietzsche said, a man's worth can be determined by how much truth they can tolerate. This forum appears to be capable of tolerating very little.
ssu August 19, 2025 at 06:21 #1008187
Quoting boethius
It is not a failure in reasoning to be afraid of nuclear weapons.

But it is to think that nuclear deterrence doesn't work is wrong.

Nuclear powers keep their nuclear deterrence as the last defence and WILL NOT escalate recklessly with another nuclear power. Just look at Pakistan and India. These nuclear armed powers have now had two military conflicts under their belt when both sides have been armed with nuclear weapons.

In fact, the posturing between NATO and Russia here is a case example: The US / NATO got through the message that if Russia would use tactical nukes in the conflict with Ukraine, NATO air power would attack Russian units and targets in Ukrainian territory. Notice what here was absent: any attack on Russian strategic bases like in the Kola Peninsula etc. Such attack would be actually a huge escalation. The declared limited conventional response was credible enough, even if using nuclear weapons would severely undermine Russia's war (as China wouldn't like this escalation).

I myself have assumed that if Russia really would want to send a message with nuclear weapons, likely they would simply make an underground nuclear test at Novaja Zemlya. This would be observed, would create a panic and a media frenzy, but wouldn't lead to a military response from NATO.

Quoting Wayfarer
Seems Zelenkskyy played his hand very well in the Oval Office meeting. Media is reporting that he even got a laugh out of Trump - very difficult thing to do, and probably as significant as getting a sign-off, given Trump's character.

Quite funny when Trump didn't find at first the Finnish President who was sitting in front of him. Trump starts to show his age.

But yes, the Ukrainian president as Ukraine has the backing of Europe. Will that be enough, we'll see.

jorndoe August 19, 2025 at 13:34 #1008235
Reply to Banno, that makes it 20 years before the new tsar broke their own law along with the agreement you mention.
Add Trump's Crimea Declaration of 2018, and whatever.
So, rules out the window, and orange-flavored appeasement?
Doesn't look promising.

Anyway, there's this tedious list of oddities on Trump and Putin's relationship.
Trump wrote "STOP" to Putin, and "CRAZY" about Putin, on his platform, and then...? Back to the old buddy-appeasement.
Bizarrely, after one of Medvedev's ramblings, Trump sent two submaries.
Mentioned list of oddities, Fiona Hill, various Kremlin (and a higher number of other Russian) comments/reactions, volte-faces like the above — taken together — is evidence to suggest that Trump has a hole in his understanding, or something.

The Trump circus has seen some incompetence.
RFK Jr might be the clearest example.
Witkoff is another (via upolitics, via thedailybeast, Niall Ferguson via instagram or facebook; via cnn or tass).
...
Wayfarer August 19, 2025 at 23:39 #1008303
Quoting Thomas Friedman, NY Times (Gift Link)
I have covered a lot of diplomatic negotiations since becoming a journalist in 1978, but I have never seen one when where one of the leaders — in this case Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky — felt the need to thank our president about 15 times in the roughly four and a half minutes he addressed him with the press in the room. Not to mention the flattery that our other European allies felt they needed to heap on him as well.

When our allies have to devote this much energy just to keep the peace with our president, before they even begin to figure out how to make peace with Vladimir Putin; when they have to constantly look over their shoulder to make sure that Trump is not shooting them in the back with a social media post, before Putin shoots them in the front with a missile; and when our president doesn’t understand that when Putin says to Ukraine, in effect “Marry me or I’ll kill you,” that Zelensky needs more than just an American marriage counselor, it all leads me to ask: How is this ever going to work? ....

Putin’s punishment for this war should be that he and his people have to forever look to the West and see a Ukraine, even if it is a smaller Ukraine, that is a thriving Slavic, free-market democracy, compared with Putin’s declining Slavic, authoritarian kleptocracy.

But how will Trump ever learn that truth when he basically gutted the National Security Council staff and shrank and neutered the State Department, when he fired the head of the National Security Agency and his deputy on the advice of a conspiracy buffoon, Laura Loomer, and when he appointed a Putin fan girl, Tulsi Gabbard, to be his director of national intelligence? ...

Who will tell him the truth? No one.

No one but the wild earth of Ukraine. In the trenches in the Donbas, there is truth. In the 20,000 Ukrainian children that Kyiv says Putin has abducted, there is truth. In the roughly 1.4 million Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed and wounded as a result of Putin’s fevered dreams of restoring Ukraine to Mother Russia, there is truth. In the Ukrainian civilians killed by Russian drones at the same time that Trump was laying out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska, there is truth.

And the longer Trump ignores those truths, the more he builds his peace strategy — not on expertise but on his hugely inflated self-regard and his un-American anti-Westernism — the more this will become his war. And if Putin wins it and Ukraine loses it, Trump and his reputation will suffer irreparable damage — now and forever.

jorndoe August 20, 2025 at 01:31 #1008322
You think Orbán [sup](2024, 2025)[/sup] and Fico [sup](2024, 2025)[/sup] are down with trading Hungary and Slovakia for Ukraine?
A territory swap, an exchange, perhaps accompanied by something else?
"The moment of truth, sir, and sir." :)
The Kremlin circle might, maybe; well, surely they would consider it, neighbors right in the middle of Europe (yummm), though still at some distance from Transnistria and the coveted Odesa.
Trump might eye a few Mar-a-Hungakia business opportunities (Putin can remove obstacles :up:).
Hungary and Slovakia would be leaving the EU and NATO, presumably.
The rest of Europe might object; well, to Russian forces moving in at least.

User image

Now back to the real world, apologies for the distraction.

Some of these predictions are (still) accurate enough, others are somewhat off:

Vladimir Putin Could Be Laying a Trap (via yahoo)
[sup]— Jonathan Lemire · The Atlantic · Aug 12, 2025[/sup]
Tzeentch August 20, 2025 at 05:42 #1008345
People trying to "boycott" peace out of sheer spite for Trump is probably one of the funniest things I've seen on this forum. :rofl:
neomac August 20, 2025 at 06:40 #1008354
Quoting Tzeentch
I have to say that it's somewhat amusing to witness the response to this collective reality check. :lol:


That's what you call your wish list now?

Quoting Tzeentch
People trying to "boycott" peace out of sheer spite for Trump is probably one of the funniest things I've seen on this forum.


Shouldn't you too? Trump is Biden 2.0 , the Blob, and other imbecile buzz words of yours and your brain doubles.

Quoting Tzeentch
As Nietzsche said, a man's worth can be determined by how much truth they can tolerate. This forum appears to be capable of tolerating very little.


You mean the dude who died crazy?



jorndoe August 20, 2025 at 20:07 #1008463
Quoting Tzeentch
People trying to "boycott" peace out of sheer spite for Trump is probably one of the funniest things I've seen on this forum. :rofl:


That's what you see?

Not supporting the Ukrainians trying (despite getting sh¦t all over again and again), wrestling free from their old northern shadow, standing up against invasion + land-grabbery, sovereignty of Ukraine, calling out Kremlin aggression + bullsh¦ttery, defending democratization, resisting Russification (? Russophobia) + Russian regress/oppression/colonization, whatever ...?

Hm.
Tzeentch August 21, 2025 at 05:30 #1008548
Reply to jorndoe People are inadvertently teaming up with the exact republican and neocon human garbage that lobbied for this war from 2008 onward.

The hawks want war, and even though the people generally don't, they are so hysterical they'd rather see no end to the war than to see Trump succeed at peace - it's not the widows, orphan and the piles of dead that keep them awake at night; it's the mere chance of Trump getting a prize.

The story people tell themselves about Ukraine deserving a better deal is just a coping mechanism to wash their hands, because a better deal is not coming and things will only get worse. Doubly so if the US ends up using failed peace talks as an excuse to walk out on the conflict altogether - Ukraine is really screwed then, and will probably not survive as a country.
neomac August 22, 2025 at 08:34 #1008787
Quoting Tzeentch
The story people tell themselves about Ukraine deserving a better deal is just a coping mechanism to wash their hands, because a better deal is not coming and things will only get worse. Doubly so if the US ends up using failed peace talks as an excuse to walk out on the conflict altogether - Ukraine is really screwed then, and will probably not survive as a country.


So this clown and others kept repeating in this forum since the beginning of the conflict that the Europeans are slavish vassals of the US, that the US foreign policy is the BLOB everywhere (from Ukraine to Israel, from Biden to Trump), that Zelensky is a corrupt clown put there by the BLOB to screw Ukraine AND still the US can't get what they want from their slavish vassals and corrupt clowns?!!!
neomac August 22, 2025 at 08:40 #1008788
What these imbecile claims keep predicting is in reality nothing more than a theory of the INTENTIONS behind plausible but still uncertain consequences of certain political decisions made by involved parties. And interpret everything in light of these alleged intentions no matter what the actual facts are.
They found a way to connect whatever fact to such evil intentions, those of the Great Satan. And yap about it. As simple as that. Pardon, as imbecile as that.

Meanwhile: "Dramatic Rise in Republican Support for Ukraine"
https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/dramatic-rise-republican-support-ukraine
neomac August 22, 2025 at 09:02 #1008791
"Hours Ahead of Meeting Putin, Trump Calls Kremlin’s Closest Ally"
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/world/europe/trump-belarus-leader-call-putin.html

https://x.com/BelarusMFA/status/1956374401642865068

"Lukashenko says not going to run for reelection"
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/113157/

What's the orange president cooking in Belarus?
jorndoe August 23, 2025 at 05:12 #1008927
Reply to Tzeentch, you've repeated that already and have already gotten responses. As to my comment, should I take that as a "Yes" + a "No", then?
jorndoe August 23, 2025 at 05:12 #1008928
How public lying can work:

Feb 27, 2014 · Little green men (Russo-Ukrainian War) (— various via Wikipedia)

Feb 26, 2019 · From 'Not Us' To 'Why Hide It?': How Russia Denied Its Crimea Invasion, Then Admitted It (— Carl Schreck · Chizhov, Putin, Shoigu · RFE/RL)

Feb 20, 2022 · Moscow Has No Plans for Aggression, Has Never Attacked Anyone In Its History, Kremlin Spokesman Says (— Ilya Tsukanov · Peskov · Sputnik)

Feb 24, 2022 · Russian invasion of Ukraine (— various via Wikipedia)

Plausible deniability or unactionability for a while, until exposed or otherwise unfeasible, just long enough.
I guess there's no accountability for such lying, apart from distrust perhaps.
(The domestic audience is a bit more puzzling.)
In this case, all on Putin's watch.


When Putin
1999—2000 (acting president)
2000—2004 1st presidential term
2004—2008 2nd presidential term
2008—2012 (prime minister)
2012—2018 3rd presidential term
2018—2024 4th presidential term
2024— 5th presidential term

Wayfarer August 23, 2025 at 06:17 #1008936
Reply to jorndoe Meanwhile, Sergei Lavrov is saying that Zelenskyy is making any progress towards peace impossible. I'll fill in the blanks: 'The Ukrainians keep insisting that they own their own country. They won't agree that they should surrender to us and that Zelenskyy should resign. Therefore, we have no choice but to keep fighting.'
boethius August 23, 2025 at 08:06 #1008945
Quoting Wayfarer
?jorndoe Meanwhile, Sergei Lavrov is saying that Zelenskyy is making any progress towards peace impossible. I'll fill in the blanks: 'The Ukrainians keep insisting that they own their own country. They won't agree that they should surrender to us and that Zelenskyy should resign. Therefore, we have no choice but to keep fighting.'


Perhaps consider the critical thinking perspective, which you are clearly capable of on other subjects.

The first critical question is "why is it ok when the US does it".

The US uses its military power to coerce and if that doesn't work invade to implement their "national interests" all the time. As we speak the US has committed (either sent or sending) troops to violate both Mexican and Venezualan sovereignty, and recently threatened to take the Panama canal and all of Greenland, within the context of waging overt and covert wars all over the world.

Now, if you deplore US imperialism as much as Russian, then ok, great, we're on the same page.

If you take the next step of having a lucid view of things, the proximate cause of the war in Ukraine is US imperialism threatening Russian imperialism, soliciting a predictable response. If you want to argue the ultimate cause is Russian imperialism that was always going to try to take what it wants in Ukraine, then I'm not entirely convinced (the pre-2014 status quo could have perhaps continued for a long time; as Russia also benefited from the status quo in having a large Russian speaking voting block in Ukraine which served the purpose of maintaining the status quo) but I have zero problem accepting such a premise for the sake of argument.

For, when we look at this obvious clear reality we have two imperial powers and a smaller country in between that became the object of inter-imperial struggle.

In de-contextualized absolute terms the US is more powerful than Russia (population, economics, technology, satellites, military alliances and bases around the world, etc. with perhaps a few areas where Russia leads, like not having 37 trillion dollars of national debt), so on this basis it was argued that Ukraine can switch Imperial sides and this is a safe and wise move.

That is the fundamental premise of the whole war and events leading up to the war.

However, when context is taken into account, Ukraine is right on Russia's border and so Russia is the dominant Imperial power. As Obama (who had access to the raw in intel) informed us, whatever the US does in Ukraine can be overmatched 4 times by the Russians.

The idea that "Ukrainian sovereignty" is a a justification for fighting to a loss is simply pure propaganda.

In my military training (NATO military training) one of the bedrock moral principles we were instructed to follow, due to being common sense and the supreme law of the land by treaty (this is Canada where treaties like the Geneva conventions matter), is that the use of military force must be in service of an achievable military outcome; that it was not honourable to fight to the death for no purpose, and doing so not only caused more immediate damage (primarily to civilians who we're supposed to be fighting to protect) but also harmed the long term prospects for peace by causing further unnecessary animosity; for, not only does more harm cause more bad blood but it is easier to understand and forgive military action taken to achieve a rational military purpose than violence for the sake of violence.

While NATO encourages Ukraine to fight to the death, actual NATO training (obviously omitted from what was provided to Ukrainians) includes an entire multi-millenial war fighting philosophy in which the goal is to limit damage to civilians, international relations, and fight towards a lasting peace rather than inflicting vindictive harm on one's enemies.

It is the bedrock ethos of the professional Western soldier.

History demonstrates again and again that when the use of lethal force is used in a plausibly rational and justified manner, seeking to minimize harm to achieve reasonable military objectives, that healing the wounds of war is far easier.

War is by definition the breakdown of diplomatic dialogue in which differences can no longer be resolved by talking and therefore the facts on the ground will be determined by force.

How that force is used has an immense impact on the prospects of rebuilding a diplomatic process to avoid further warfare in the future. The reality is that rarely are two sides equally matched and fight to a standstill and then re-establish the status quo anti after a purposeless war that changed nothing and caused only harm. The reality is generally one side is stronger or then more committed and achieves military objectives while the other side loses, of course at great cost to both sides.

This is the actual issue. Ukraine cannot achieve further rational military objectives, and could not remotely plausibly achieve any further militarily achievable objectives since 2023.

And this is not just me saying this; General Milley expressed this basic war fighting philosophy regularly; for example:

Quoting Top US general argues Ukraine may be in a position of strength to negotiate Russian withdrawal

“There may be a political solution where politically the Russians withdraw,” Milley said at a press conference Wednesday. “You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength, and your opponent is at weakness. And it’s possible, maybe, that there’ll be a political solution. All I’m saying is there’s a possibility for it.”


Quoting Top US general argues Ukraine may be in a position of strength to negotiate Russian withdrawal

“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” Milley said at the time.


Instead of following in any remote sense this war fighting ethic carefully crafted over literally thousands of years so that the disaster that is war -- generally caused by delirious political leadership decisions on one or both sides -- serves a lasting peace to the extent that can be reasonably achieved in the brutal chaos of war and inter-state competition for raw power.

That is the issue, and if we take any similar situation where the US violates the sovereignty of smaller states for the political ambitions of its leadership, no one would be recommending that Mexico or Panama or Denmark fight the US to the death for no achievable military objective.

As a smaller state faced with imperial aggression, there's only 2 reasonable moves:

1. Negotiation and appeasement, and if that fails then complete capitulation.

2. Negotiation and appeasement, and if that fails then limited war fighting to return to negotiation and appeasement (demonstrate there is a cost to the use of force and it won't be "so easy"), and then if that fails complete capitulation.

Now, the rebuke to common sense strategy from a small-state point of view is that appeasement of Hitler didn't work and WWII happened anyways.

But that's not the same. That is an issue in which other great powers (and far greater powers at the time the appeasement strategy began; by definition starting with appeasing Hitler in remilitarizing in violation to Treaty of Versailles) that can credibly enforce their will on Germany and are deciding between appeasement and war.

To make an accurate analogy, we must recast appeasement in the scenario of the Sudetenland crisis as the situation being no one is about to go to war with Germany over Sudetenland but will send arms to Czechoslovakia so that they can fight the Nazi's alone.

Literally zero historians have taken the position in this debate that of course Czechoslovakian sovereignty is a categorical imperative for Czechoslovakian to fight for the death over and for the allies to send thoughts and prayers and arms (in a drip feed manner that wouldn't really threaten the the German's ability to take and hold the Sudetenland).

Had the allies made it clear they aren't about to fight the Germans over Sudetenland but they encourage the Czechoslovakians to do so, THAT IS CALLED APPEASEMENT! just with the extra setp of a lot of Czechoslovakians dying.

And that is the NATO policy vis-a-vis Russia since 2022: appeasement, just with the extra step of a lot of Ukrainians dying.

Would any historian make the case in such a scenario where the Allies make clear they won't fight the germans but smaller states should, with some arms (but shhh, even then not too many) ... would not be appeasement to Hitler as long as they talked tough?

Because that is the Western hypothesis: that others should fight the Russians for our moral beliefs, and that is not appeasement because we talk really, really, really tough ... except when it turns out indefinite conflict with the Russians isn't politically practical because the Ukrainians will lose and also Russia has stuff we want, then it's predictably time to cut loose the Ukrainians and recast ourselves as peace makers the whole time.

This is the issue: we appease the Russians, handle the war with kitten gloves to make sure we don't piss off the Russians too much (so avoid nuclear escalation but also to avoid too much bad blood that we can't access Russian resources when the time comes for that to be profitable and not putting at risk LNG exports to Europe, or get whatever else from Russia that has become expedient), and while we do that we vicariously live Churchillian non-appeasement through Ukrainians in a war they can't win and is horrendously damaging to them.

But would that be the feeling if we just propped up the Czechoslovakian's to be killed in large numbers and Hitler still get what he wanted? Would Western historians be like "fuck yeah, we really showed him" in a scenario that plays out like that without the US, France and UK ever declaring war on Germany?

Because that's what we're doing today but packaging it as brave.
boethius August 23, 2025 at 08:36 #1008950
Reply to Wayfarer

In case the subtexts of the above argument is not clear, the point is not to recognize we need to finally stop appeasing Putin and start WWIII, but rather the point is the reality is simply that the propaganda framing that Putin is Hitler and that sending arms to Ukraine is Churchillian valour (the propaganda version of Churchill that ignores his own Hitlarian racist genocidal mania) is stupid and a vast majority of people in the West know that it's stupid and just something that we say but don't actually believe; for, if we did actually believe Putin was morally equivalent to Hitler and Russian's to Nazis, then the case for direct war would be incredibly strong and it would be clear to everyone that anything short of direct warfare would be appeasement.

But even that far more realistic view is still based in the proparanda framing that the West would care even if Putin was Hitler and actually was committing a genocide in Ukraine, for we have in parallel a genocide in Palestine and the support for the genocide far outweighs opposition from our political class, and the idea of putting a stop to it through the use of force is not even a possibility of consideration.

Which itself is still a propaganda framing that fighting WWII was about stopping Hitler and his genocide, and somehow that Western ethos has changed, rather than allied participation in WWII being about pursuing Western imperial interests that include plenty of genocide both before and after WWII and still today!

Point is, if you want to go all the way to the bottom of the West's propaganda "Inception" basement (which makes sense if you've seen the movie Inception), then those are some of the levels along the way.

For our purposes here, the reality is that the Western policy is:

1. Bribing the Ukrainian elites (a regime ruling one of the most corrupt political systems in the world and the largest black market arms dealer even before the war started) with flooding in cash and arms.

2. Suppressing any democratic sentiment (which kept on voting for peace with Russia and against further escalation of tensions) through the use of literal Nazi paramilitary organizations goose stepping hand in hand with Ukrainian intelligence.

3. Using steps 1 and 2 to ensure Ukraine fighting beyond any plausible rational military plan in order to:

a. Lock-in Europe into US liquified natural gas imports for mad profits.
b. Lock-in Europe into massive purchases of US arms.
c. Lock-in Europe into humiliated vassal status for the foreseeable future.
d. Uncouple Europe from Russia economically generally speaking, but setting up US-Russian economic collaboration down the line.
e. Defeat the Euro as a competitor to the USD.
f. Clarify the zones of influence in the emerging multi-polar world, with the remaining great powers being Russia and China, with the EU "off the table" and little chance of a general peace in which the great powers become less relevant and are forced to deal with domestic issues.
g. Most importantly of all, defeat European welfare state policies and practice as a model of economic development globally by simply fucking up Europe generally speaking.

Why would European leaders go along with this? Because they are literally in a satanic cult controlled by the financial powers that are in a position to assert said financial power to propel whoever they select to the bureaucratic positions of relevance (and satanic extortionary leverage being the best leverage but more importantly the satanic belief system encouraging sacrificing the interests of regular people and your whole country for whatever madness is popular in satanic circles these days); and if not a satanist literally murdering children on video, then at least someone totally incompetent and clueless and 100% a coward if ever they did get a clue.
neomac August 23, 2025 at 15:20 #1008997
Quoting boethius
allied participation in WWII being about pursuing Western imperial interests that include plenty of genocide bother before and after WWII and still today!


And the subtext of your subtext is that being the American-European lead West the greatest evil in history we Westerners (?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) should help Russia end American-European-lead West by spinning pro-Russian propaganda, right? And that's rational, right?
boethius August 23, 2025 at 17:00 #1009010
Quoting neomac
And the subtext of your subtext is that being the American-European lead West the greatest evil in history we Westerners (?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) should help Russia end American-European-lead West by spinning pro-Russian propaganda, right? And that's rational, right?


Reality and facts is not "pro-Russian propaganda". If the fact is that Russia can defeat Ukraine because Russia is bigger than Ukraine, and the fact is the West leaving Ukraine to fight the Russians alone is called appeasement, and the fact is the West has committed a disturbingly large amount of genocides and is committing genocide right now as we speak (arguably more than one), those are just the facts.

In terms of absolute amount of suffering caused, definitely the West is the most evil in History, due to scale.

And definitely we Westerners should feel bad about that suffering.

We should feel bad about the suffering of the Palestinians suffering a brutal genocide with on camera rapes of prisoners, burning and blown apart children, rapes of children we know about, starvation; really the most horrifying and humiliating conditions possibly in history, due to the essentially live-broadcast nature of the documentation of the horror.

Likewise, we should definitely feel bad about having bribed the Ukrainian elite into doing our dirty work to ensure the US can sell LNG to Europe at the cost of over a million dead Ukrainians (some estimates are approaching 2 million dead).

We manipulate and prop up the Ukrainians to take an absolutely brutal beating, dangle prospects of real help sometimes (like all that "no-fly-zone" talk, if you remember that) and the hypothesis is supposed to be we should feel good about that because we morally excoriated the Russians for following the exact same policies of Imperial domination we follow (just a lot more nobly due to pretty close adherence to the laws of war and not doing things like a genocide and starving civilian populations and lacking things like raping prisoners, and even recording the rapes, bragging about the rapes and defending the rapists)?
neomac August 25, 2025 at 11:02 #1009338
Quoting boethius
Reality and facts is not "pro-Russian propaganda”.


I do not take propaganda as the opposite of reality and facts. As I said many times propaganda can also be grounded on facts and reality. What makes political propaganda propaganda is the fact that people are pushing the audience to take political decisions based on a certain narrative about (actual or putative) reality and facts. And what I find questionable about certain propaganda is not necessarily about facts and reality per se, but about how propaganda selects and connects them to get to certain ideologically-motivated conclusions.
Once one is content with a narrative over facts for whatever reason then one can push it to the wider audience for political purposes by repeating and spreading their “gospel”, which is what you do and expressly intend to do. So yes you are a propagandist.
And also pro-Russian because OBJECTIVELY your narrative discrediting the West favours more Russia than the West, so much so that your narrative is parroting on many points Russian accusations and justifications against the West.
So, you are literally a pro-Russian propagandist. And my claim should not be taken as denigratory per se.



Quoting boethius
If the fact is that Russia can defeat Ukraine because Russia is bigger than Ukraine, and the fact is the West leaving Ukraine to fight the Russians alone is called appeasement, and the fact is the West has committed a disturbingly large amount of genocides and is committing genocide right now as we speak (arguably more than one), those are just the facts.


Let’s review your facts:
- The possibility of a military defeat. Its plausibility depends on many factors including the military capacity of Ukraine and Russia. One has to see the cost/benefit calculations as the war evolves and how other actors are moving wrt the conflict are other factors. Besides a military defeat or occupation do not fix political issues per se, especially in the long term.
- What people call “appeasement”. I think that your rendering doesn’t really capture what people mean by “appeasement” in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict which is more something like “the policy of making political, material, or territorial concessions to Russia in hopes of avoiding further escalation or conflict, often viewed as placating Russian aggression at the expense of Ukrainian”. In some sense the Ukrainians want to fight alone in the current conflict, they do not need boots on the ground from other countries. They need a military, economic and humanitarian support at the expense of Russia. And this request is rationally compelling as long as Russia is perceived as a threat to European countries and the US.
- Dramatic events like genocides. To my understanding, there is a legal usage of the term “genocide”, there is a historical usage of the word “genocide”, and there is a political usage of the word “genocide” which can overlap to some extent but do not coincide. So we can still debate in what sense you talk about “genocide” and about its explanatory power.

Now, once we converge on a certain understanding of basic factual assumptions , we can then debate of what follows from them.?
But propaganda can get in the way and use manipulative rhetorical tricks instead of offering clearer, more consistent analysis of facts and realities. I find that particularly nasty when careful analysis would be not only welcome but also kind of expected, as in a philosophical forum. Unfortunately, one can find early signs of such rhetorical manipulation even within your quotes.




Quoting boethius
In terms of absolute amount of suffering caused, definitely the West is the most evil in History, due to scale.


I don’t know how you made this calculation. But if I were to assess something, I would evaluate bad and good, costs and risks. Not just bad as you seem to do.
Talking about “causing” is ambiguous because it can be used both to explain without attributing responsibilities and then also to attribute responsibilities. So it is possible that the West in some explanatory sense has “caused” certain things, still it could be debatable if the West was responsible for it just because it “caused” them.



Quoting boethius
And definitely we Westerners should feel bad about that suffering.


OK your claim here is prescriptive not factual. Again I find it debatable, because the chance of following prescriptive claims depend on behavioural dispositions in human beings like the following: feeling bad about certain choices does not necessarily mean regretting those choices.
I’ll give you a dumb example: if I SHOULD save kid A and B from drowning and kid A is my son while kid B is your son, and I can’t save both. I will save mine and sacrifice yours. Would I feel bad about it? Sure. Would I regret my choice? Most certainly not.
In the same vain: if I SHOULD save kid A and one zillion of Palestinian kids from drowning and kid A is my son while one zillion of Palestinian kids are not, and I can’t save both. I will save mine and sacrifice one zillion of Palestinian kids. Would I feel bad about it? Sure. Would I regret my choice? Most certainly not.
What’s more is that even if you and many others feel differently about it, still there could be people whose feelings are of the kind I just described. And here is the political conundrum: politicians’ policies should be based on what people SHOULD feel or on what people ACTUALLY feel? Politicians are more credible and supported if they approve policies based on what people SHOULD do or on what people ACTUALLY do?


Quoting boethius
We should feel bad about the suffering of the Palestinians suffering a brutal genocide with on camera rapes of prisoners, burning and blown apart children, rapes of children we know about, starvation; really the most horrifying and humiliating conditions possibly in history, due to the essentially live-broadcast nature of the documentation of the horror.


This argument is good for moral appeal, not for clear analysis.
History is replete of brutal ethnic conflicts (which were perpetrated not only by the West) and probably that’s because human beings do not only feel the need for peace, but also because they need social identities. Unfortunately social identities come with all sorts of social discrimination between groups. This is a potential source of conflict that can spiral into a vicious circle and very easily so, since any defensive move against actual or potential hostilities by other groups can be perceived as aggressive by those groups. This vicious circle can escalate the conflict to brutal and disturbing consequences.
So if one wants to minimize their frequency and intensity everywhere one would need OVERWHELMING DISPROPORTIONATE POWERFUL means to ENFORCE peace and preserve/fuel such powerful means as long as possible and against competitors everywhere. What historical form could this situation take?
For example, once an international order of very powerful countries (NOT only the US) are committed to support and enforce human rights everywhere (starting from their own countries) then I can find it plausible that genocides will become less likely than otherwise.
“Genocidal” conflicts happen both in Palestine and in Ukraine. However the difference is that Russia is not fighting its war for the acknowledgement of its sovereign state by the Ukrainians. Russia aims to have its own sphere of influence beyond its borders, be influential on a global scale, be treated as a peer by the US (BTW if the US is an empire and Russia wants to be treated as a peer by the US than Russia wants to be treated as an empire too, right?). Israelis and Palestinians do.


Quoting boethius
Likewise, we should definitely feel bad about having bribed the Ukrainian elite into doing our dirty work to ensure the US can sell LNG to Europe at the cost of over a million dead Ukrainians (some estimates are approaching 2 million dead).

We manipulate and prop up the Ukrainians to take an absolutely brutal beating, dangle prospects of real help sometimes (like all that "no-fly-zone" talk, if you remember that) and the hypothesis is supposed to be we should feel good about that because we morally excoriated the Russians for following the exact same policies of Imperial domination we follow (just a lot more nobly due to pretty close adherence to the laws of war and not doing things like a genocide and starving civilian populations and lacking things like raping prisoners, even recording the rapes but defending the rapists)?


See, you started with some facts you likely believe to be “unquestionable” and then you conclude with facts which you can’t possibly believe they are “unquestionable” since they have been questioned. The idea that the Ukrainian have been propped up and bribed by the West has been repeatedly disputed (by me too). If one takes into consideration the historical evidence of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, one can find it rather plausible that Ukrainians had reasons to fight the Russians INDEPENDENTLY from any propping and bribing. This historical trend is not even unique to Ukraine, and it can be seen in many other neighboring countries of Russia. Ukrainians and many other Eastern European countries find Russia more oppressive than the US and act accordingly. And the war simply may have confirmed this perception. On the other side, the imperialist ambitions of Russia have also solid historical evidences (even prior the existence of the US) and are still cheerfully supported by Russian elites and intellectuals. So the propping and bribing by the West may not have enough explanatory power you seem to attribute to them. But you are less interested in analyzing facts and more interesting in judging and pinning responsibilities by carefully selecting certain convenient facts and overlook the rest.
From a geopolitical point of view, since Russia and Ukraine are not the only countries in the world, we should see how other countries position themselves wrt this conflict given their national interest. More powerful countries will likely approach the conflict in instrumental ways that are convenient to preserve or increase their power status for their security and prosperity, possibly at the expense of other rival powers. Now, since Russia can and did prop-up and bribe Ukrainians to make Russia happier the US is compelled to do the same to neutralise the asymmetric advantage Russia would otherwise have. Bribing and propping-up are tools politicians may need to rely on to beat rivals, still that’s not enough to explain certain historical trends or, even, to pin responsibilities.

See, so far my counter arguments are non-moral. They are grounded on what I believe “unquestionable” historical and anthropological facts, and neutral/pragmatic geopolitical reasoning. Even pro-Russian like you should be able to understand these arguments. And they should feel free to question them on their grounds which they typically avoid to do, because these arguments interfere with their rote counter-propaganda against the Great Satan. Their “analysis” is at best to find creative ways to link facts to the evil intentions of the Great Satan whatever they are. And then they call it critical thinking.
So my philosophical question to you is: should moral reasoning over the conflict between Ukraine and Russia take into account the anthropological and historical facts, and geopolitical reasoning I was referring to or not? If not, what is your argument? If yes, how?
jorndoe August 26, 2025 at 23:36 #1009756
Emphasis mine ...

Quoting Donald J. Trump · Aug 25, 2025
As the President of the United States, I will stand up to Countries that attack our incredible American Tech Companies. Digital Taxes, Digital Services Legislation, and Digital Markets Regulations are all designed to harm, or discriminate against, American Technology. They also, outrageously, give a complete pass to China's largest Tech Companies. This must end, and end NOW! With this TRUTH, I put all Countries with Digital Taxes, Legislation, Rules, or Regulations, on notice that unless these discriminatory actions are removed, I, as President of the United States, will impose substantial additional Tariffs on that Country's Exports to the U.S.A., and institute Export restrictions on our Highly Protected Technology and Chips. America, and American Technology Companies, are neither the “piggy bank” nor the “doormat” of the World any longer. Show respect to America and our amazing Tech Companies or, consider the consequences! Thank you for your attention to this matter.
DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA


It's unclear what that will mean for ...

Russian attack on western Ukraine hits an American factory during the US-led push for peace (— AP · Aug 21, 2025)

What do you think will come of it (if anything)?
What should come of it (if anything)?
jorndoe August 27, 2025 at 14:22 #1009907
Russia’s top diplomat says Zelensky can’t sign Ukraine war peace deal because he’s ‘illegitimate’ (— New York Post · Aug 24, 2025)
secure elections can not take place with the ongoing war against Russia


He's legitimate. (Can the same be said for Putin?)

Quoting CSPAN · Aug 26, 2025
Q: "This past weekend, Sergey Lavrov was saying that Putin will not sign a peace deal with Zelensky because Russia views him as illegitimate."
President Trump: "It doesn't matter what they say. Everybody's posturing. It's all bullshit."


According to one commentator, the Kremlin's push is like a Trojan horse.

• would buy them time
• would give them an easy excuse to withdraw from negotiations at any time
• besides, they could always claim that such an election was illegitimate

Seems safe enough to say that the Kremlin does not[sup][/sup] particularly have peace in mind.
Rather, colonization[sup][/sup] at the expense of Russians and Ukrainians (and North Koreans).


[sup] (some chronological evidence) 2014, 2014, 2019, 2019, 2022, 2022, 2023, 2023, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025, 2025[/sup]

[sub] (some chronological evidence) 2020, 2022, 2022, 2023, 2023, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2024, 2025, 2025[/sub]

jorndoe August 27, 2025 at 16:50 #1009941
Obama, Trump, whoever, brought up for Europe (and Canada) to carry its NATO weight, as it were.
Defense increase seems to be happening, however scary.

Will war in Ukraine mark a new era for European defence research? (— Nature · Aug 17, 2022)
Europe needs to spend more on defence, not just pretend to (— The Economist · Mar 20, 2025)
French Automaker to Mass Produce MBDA’s ‘One Way Effector’ Missile (— DefenseMirror · Jun 15, 2025)
Europe builds for war as arms factories expand at triple speed (— Financial Times · Aug 12, 2025)

Russia might find itself well outgunned in Ukraine (+ deterrence works), but I'd suggest not forgetting more sanctions.

User image

Pleasantries:

Chinese President Xi Jinping sends independence day greetings to Ukraine (— SCMP · Aug 25, 2025)

neomac August 28, 2025 at 05:44 #1010103
Quoting jorndoe
According to one commentator, the Kremlin's push is like a Trojan horse.

• would buy them time
• would give them an easy excuse to withdraw from negotiations at any time
• besides, they could always claim that such an election was illegitimate


Sounds plausible, but let's not forget that amongst the Russian declared objectives for the war, there was/is the denazification of Ukraine, namely, the removal of "the “drug addicts and neo-Nazis” who purportedly govern Ukraine. So acknowledging Zelensky as legitimate counter-part for a peace deal would be likely seen as a concession.
jorndoe September 01, 2025 at 14:57 #1010969
Continuing from earlier comments ...

SECURITY COUNCIL LIVE: Push for peace in Ukraine could rapidly fade if large-scale Russian attacks continue
[sup]— UN · Aug 29, 2025[/sup]
Quoting Yulia Svyrydenko
The assault of “629 airborne weapons” killed 25 people — including 4 children — and wounded 63 more, said Yulia Svyrydenko, including a girl “not yet three years old, born under Russian shelling in October 2022, and killed by Russian shelling in August 2025”.
Strikes also damaged the European Union Delegation and British Council premises - diplomatic sites, not military targets - “deliberate acts of terror”, she said, demanding stronger air defence and long-range capabilities to protect civilians, alongside tougher sanctions to deprive Moscow of funds for its war.
Citing the Russian Federation’s systematic abduction of children, forced adoption and identity erasure, she said: “Russia kills children from a distance with missiles and drones, and those who fall under its control it steals.”
She urged the Council to act, insisting that peace requires both bolstering its defence and intensifying pressure on Moscow until it shows genuine willingness to negotiate, stressing: "Aggression must be punished, never rewarded."

Quoting Dmitry Polyanski
Such attacks targeted Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, including arms depots, airfields and UAV factories, not civilians, said the Russian Federation’s speaker.
Rather, civilian deaths resulted from Ukrainian air defences placed in residential areas, he said, stressing Kyiv is “shamelessly and criminally” using Ukrainians as human shields and such tragedies are “intentionally whipped up to blame the deaths of Ukrainian civilians on Russia,” to secure more Western arms and sanctions.
Moscow further accused the West of hypocrisy, ignoring Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian Federation cities that, it said, killed and wounded scores of civilians in late August. The West’s selective blindness undermines its credibility, while reiterating demands for security guarantees that address the Russian Federation's concerns. He also accused Kyiv of “skyrocketing human rights violations”.
On the Alaska Summit, he said the Russian Federation remains open to negotiations, but only on terms that exclude North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion and recognize Russian interests, accusing Kyiv of blocking compromise and pursuing “PR over diplomacy”.

Quoting Ondina Blokar Drobi?
“These are not military targets. Aerial attacks in massive waves on densely populated urban areas with explosive weaponry have no justification,” Slovenia’s representative said.
Reiterating condemnation of intensified attacks “while peace in Ukraine is being discussed”, she said they represent a blatant violation of international humanitarian law and “must not go unpunished”.
“2025 is rapidly becoming the deadliest year of this war,” she said, stressing: “We need to refocus our discussions on stopping the bloodshed. We need an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.”


:chin:
Well, yes, something doesn't add up, though at least it consistently doesn't add up; in this UN forum, I guess all that can be done is calling it out.
House Trump was silent in this round, as far as I know [sup](2025Feb21, 2025Apr15, 2025Jun17)[/sup]; busy at home [sup](2025Aug12, 2025Aug29)[/sup].

jorndoe September 03, 2025 at 21:07 #1011356
€6.4 billion from the EU to Slovakia over half a decade for development, education, science, resilience, infrastructure, whatever.

... 2024 Jun 6 · 2024 Jun 30

Fico insists on continuing to help finance the Kremlin's bombing of Ukraine.

... 2024 Dec 23 · 2025 Aug 16 · 2025 Sep 2

:chin: What am I missing?

EDIT (had some trouble finding the reference below)

Slovakia and Hungary call on the Commission to uphold energy security guarantees (— Slovak Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs · 2025 Aug 27)

Referring to a 2025 Jan 27 statement by the European Commission, that the integrity of the energy infrastructure supplying EU members is a matter of security for the entire EU, Blanár calls Ukraine's attack on Russian oil pipelines unacceptable.

Some Slovak press apparently wasn't impressed by recent events where Fico met with Putin:

Robert Fico was surrounded by dictators from all over the world in China. They celebrated the end of World War II (— Aktuality · 2025 Sep 2)

jorndoe September 09, 2025 at 21:29 #1012103
Get a Passport or Leave: Russia’s Ultimatum to Ukrainians (— HRW · Mar 25, 2025)

The date given was Sep 10, 2025.

Colonization.

jorndoe September 13, 2025 at 13:30 #1012825
Some of this seems plausible:

Vitaly Portnikov:Russia's brazen attack on Poland may aim to solve several tasks at once.

The first is testing NATO's "red lines". The Kremlin knows well that the main weakness of the West is not the lack of weapons or finances, but political will. Ideally, Moscow wants to prove the inability of the North Atlantic Alliance as a collective institution. This test is personally addressed to Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demonstrated skepticism about US allied obligations. It would be a victory for Putin to show the world that the American president is not ready to risk for Warsaw or Vilnius.

The second is creating an atmosphere of fear in Central Europe. The terror and threat of war always give birth to political extremes. The ultra-right and ultra-left forces, who openly or secretly sympathize with Moscow, get a chance to strengthen their positions. And then Europe will increasingly resemble the continent of Orban, where cooperation with the Kremlin becomes the norm, and solidarity with victims of aggression is "luxury".

The third - provoking a discussion about Europe's own defense capability. The Kremlin understands perfectly: the more Europeans talk about the need to strengthen their own armies and restore the defense industry, the louder the voices about reducing aid to Ukraine will sound. Moscow is trying to convince the West that it's better to prepare for a hypothetical future war than to help Ukraine in a war that is raging now.

The fourth - fueling anti-Ukrainian moods. Streams of Ukrainian refugees in Europe have already become a convenient visor for populists who ignite xenophobia. The blow on Poland is a signal: the war is near, and Ukrainians - "reminder" that the war can come and to your home. The Kremlin wants Ukrainians to be treated as a burden, not as allies in the fight against the aggressor.

The fifth is preparation for more large-scale aggressive actions. Now the Kremlin can predict scenarios of further war depending on the reaction of Washington and Brussels. If NATO's response to the strike on Poland turns out to be a quail, it will be for Putin an invitation to even more daring steps.

That's right, step by step, Nazi Germany tested the readiness of the world to respond - from the Rhine region, from Sudet, from Prague. And each time the West convinced itself that "it's not a war yet", that "it can still survive".

Now Putin is acting the same way. And whether NATO's determination to respond to the attack on Poland is sufficient, not only the fate of Ukraine, but also the fate of the West itself depends.


jorndoe September 14, 2025 at 17:30 #1013027
PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP TO ALL NATO NATIONS AND, THE WORLD
[sup]— Donald J. Trump · Sep 13, 2025[/sup]

I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA


Orbán and Fico, presumably? Erdo?an? When might we expect something from those folks anyway? (Also Exxon, eggs?)

it is Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s WAR


No (again).

If NATO does as I say, the WAR will end quickly


The track record kind of renders such promises null and void. Something else might help.

Omissions also tell something: Putin / the Kremlin, India, perhaps Europe or the EU, ...

The post reads a bit like an(other) vacuous promise, be it due to dependencies/conditions or deflection. Something unspoken is going on. Maybe I'm reading it wrong.

neomac September 18, 2025 at 17:46 #1013762
Africa, the new frontline between the West and Russia
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/08/21/africa-the-new-frontline-between-the-west-and-russia_6719110_4.html
jorndoe September 21, 2025 at 06:50 #1014241
Beijing and the Kremlin both threatens/provokes within a couple of days.
Not cool. I guess they feel free to keep on going.
Looking back, both have also claimed to be peaceful, pro-peace.

jorndoe September 27, 2025 at 07:18 #1015303
Despite the recent airspace breaches (Estonia, Poland, Romania), the most persistent fact remains that Russia continues to bomb Ukraine daily. That's a fact with consequences on the ground, wherever around the country. Some of the attacks are launched from Belarus.

NATO, EU declared war on Russia through Ukraine, directly participate in it — Lavrov :down:
[sup]— TASS · Sep 25, 2025[/sup]
Europe has never been so close to the start of World War III: Zakharova stated that Ukraine plans to strike NATO countries with Russian drones :down:
[sup]— Ukrainian National News · Sep 26, 2025[/sup]

I'm not sure how accurate the following note is. (Anyone?) Supposing it's accurate enough, it becomes a worry that the Kremlin circle won't negotiate anything without some sort of victory to show at home to carry them through. (Including a worry for Russians.) I guess this concern is not particularly new.

Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine · Sep 19, 2025:The Kremlin cannot end the war against Ukraine without a crisis

The war that Russia started against Ukraine has changed the structure of the Russian economy. Over the past three years of militarization, the country has found itself in a trap: defense spending has risen to almost 8% of the GDP, and the military-industrial complex has become the main driver of demand. This has allowed the Kremlin to maintain growth in strategic sectors, but at the same time has ended the balance and left private business and civilian industries on the sidelines.

It is impossible to return to a peacetime model without a sharp decline. After the war, Moscow will begin to cut defense spending. As a result, millions of people employed in the military-industrial complex will lose their jobs, and entire regions where defense enterprises are concentrated will be left without an economic base. In addition, the demobilization of hundreds of thousands of contract soldiers will also shock the labor market.

At the same time, the budget is already showing signs of depletion. In the first half of 2025, federal treasury revenues fell by almost 17%, mainly due to lower revenues from oil and gas, which are now being sold at a significant discount. The growth in oil and gas revenues does not compensate for the losses. The Ministry of Finance is forced to raise taxes and introduce new fees, but this only puts more pressure on businesses.

Sanctions and restrictions on technology imports are leading to the degradation of civilian production: Russian companies are forced to produce cheaper and simpler goods, which reduces their competitiveness. In the long term, this deprives the country of the opportunity to return to global markets with high-tech products.

Thus, Russia has found itself in a "military rent trap". The Kremlin cannot sharply reduce military spending without collapse, but it is also becoming increasingly difficult to continue financing the war. This means that a new economic crisis is inevitable for the Russian Federation, and overcoming it will require a long and painful restructuring of the entire system.


As an aside, propaganda channels have started talking about Odesa, which is in relative vicinity of Transnistria.

unenlightened October 05, 2025 at 09:55 #1016444
[quote=Transcript of the vid intro]
So, what you're about to see is part one of my interview with Branoslav Slanchev. Uh, and he he's a political scientist and honestly, this was like the most aha uh interview that I've ever done with anyone. It's just like he lays things out. I'm going to do it in two parts. So, this is part one. So, here we go.[/quote]


neomac October 20, 2025 at 13:22 #1019894
Return of the “Black International”: Neo-Nazis flock to St. Petersburg after invitation by Russia’s “Orthodox” oligarch Konstantin Malofeev
https://theins.press/en/politics/285889
unenlightened November 02, 2025 at 11:52 #1022506
Notes from underground.

jorndoe November 06, 2025 at 18:50 #1023526
Reply to unenlightened :/ Have to wonder how much Chinese companies are making


The Putinistas continue their raving and rambling to whip up Russians:

Putin’s propaganda flips reality on flights over NATO nations, as Russian public tires of war
[sup]— Eva Hartog · POLITICO · Oct 1, 2025[/sup]

Paraphrasing, they're under dire threat from Finland, Poland, and whomever else, NATO, "the West", ...
They don't talk much about the threat posed by the daily bombings of Ukraine (nor of whatever other hostilities (incursion, election interference, ai/chatbot pollution + dis/mal/misinformation campaigns, sabotage, migrant abuse)).
Has anything changed to the Kremlin?

unenlightened November 06, 2025 at 19:01 #1023529
Quoting jorndoe
Have to wonder how much Chinese companies are making


I think China has just leased half of Siberia for 50 years for tuppence ha'penny. I doubt if there will be anyone to claim it back when the lease is up. I think Russia is close to collapse.
ssu November 08, 2025 at 17:36 #1023843
Reply to jorndoe Yep, in Kremlin's propaganda Finland is preparing to attack Russia.